October 13th, 2026: Ukraine Cripples Russian Oil Refineries & Britain Targets IRGC Operatives

It's Tuesday, the 13th of October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil industry are inflicting serious damage, and new reporting reveals just how effective the campaign has become, even as President Trump pressures Kiev to stop. Later in the show, Britain says Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, are likely behind a suspected plot targeting an airbase housing American bombers, raising new concerns about the regime's covert operations on NATO soil. Plus, Western intelligence agencies warn that Russia is plotting assassinations against European defense industry executives, targeting the people responsible for producing weapons for Ukraine. And in today's back of the brief, Colombia's decades-old guerrilla conflict is heating up again, with rebels launching a car bomb attack, just as fighting intensifies between insurgents and government forces. And here I thought we didn't have enough conflict zones in 2026. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We've been reporting on the growing tension between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, particularly over Kiev's ongoing attacks against Russia's oil refineries. Now, President Trump is obviously very keen for those strikes to stop. He's blamed them for rising fuel prices in the U.S. as the midterm elections approach, although there is the chance that the Middle East conflict has something to do with rising fuel prices. Now, his administration is reportedly threatening to, restrict American weapons sales to Ukraine unless Zelensky backs down. But there's a reason Ukraine has been so reluctant to abandon these attacks. I mean, besides wanting to defend their country and citizens, new reporting suggests that it's the same reason that Washington is so determined to stop them. Simply put, Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil industry is working. A new investigation by the Washington Post reveals just how systematically Ukrainian forces have been dismantling critical parts of Russia's refining industry. And over the weekend, another suspected Ukrainian drone strike left a major Russian oil terminal in flames, with the facility still burning some three days later. That latest attack occurred in Russia's Rostov region, where a petroleum storage and shipping terminal associated with the Novoshaktinsk refinery was reportedly struck overnight on Friday into Saturday. By Monday, the facility was still burning. According to the Moscow Times, Ukrainian monitoring channel, which is a part of the Ukrainian supply chain, reported that seven of the terminal's 12 storage tanks had caught fire, with another showing signs of damage. Now, those figures have not been independently confirmed, but satellite fire detection systems verified a major blaze at the location. The terminal can store roughly 60,000 cubic meters of petroleum products and handle approximately three and a half million metric tons annually. It's part of the infrastructure that Russia uses to move refined petroleum products to domestic customers and export to other markets. But the Rostov attack is just the latest example of a much larger operation. The Washington Post examined 54 Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries and found that Kyiv has developed an increasingly sophisticated strategy for disabling those facilities. Rather than simply trying to blow up an entire refinery, Ukrainian drones are targeting specific pieces of equipment essential to the refining process. That includes distillation units and other specialized machinery used to turn crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. And what makes that strategy especially effective is that some of those components are enormously expensive, technically complicated, and difficult to manufacture. And since Russia also faces Western sanctions restricting its access to foreign equipment and parts, these components are not easy to replace. So a relatively inexpensive Ukrainian drone can damage machinery that takes months to repair. And while a refinery might look largely intact from the outside, the destruction of one critical processing unit can force substantial portions of the facility to shut down. According to data cited by the Post, Ukraine struck roughly two-thirds of Russia's 30-plus major refineries between April and August. By late August, approximately half of the country's refining capacity was offline. Some facilities were undergoing repairs and others could eventually resume operation. But the Russian government is not sure if the refinery will be able to replace it in the near future. We don't know for sure, but we do know that it will be able to replace it in the near future. But we do know that it will be able to replace it in the near future. But it demonstrates the extraordinary scale of the disruption. And Ukraine has been getting better at penetrating Russia's defenses. The Post describes increasingly complex drone operations involving decoys, larger waves of aircraft, and intelligence used to identify vulnerable points in Russia's air defense network. For Moscow, that presents an enormous challenge. Refineries are sprawling, industrial facilities scattered across a vast country. Russia cannot place its most important equipment in Russia's air defense network. Russia cannot place its most sophisticated air defense systems around every refinery and fuel depot, pipeline, and shipping terminal. And the consequences are becoming difficult to ignore. Russia has experienced fuel shortages, rising gasoline prices, and disruptions to refined product exports. President Putin acknowledged earlier this month that the refinery tax had cost Russia approximately 1% of its GDP. That's according to his government's estimates. That's a remarkable admission from a public figure. And it seems to me that it's important to note that Russia's oil and gas reserves have long been among its greatest economic strengths. Which brings us back to the growing dispute between Trump and Zelensky. Washington is trying to negotiate a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, with an initial proposal focused specifically on oil refineries. But Ukraine has only one refinery of its own, and that is non-operational after being damaged by Russian attacks. So a refinery-only ceasefire would protect a major Russian industry, while offering Ukraine basically nothing in return. And for Kiev, agreeing to such a deal would mean giving up one of the few ways that it can inflict substantial economic damage deep inside Russia without committing troops to a major ground offensive. Moscow still produces enormous quantities of crude, and damaged refineries can be repaired, of course. But Ukraine has demonstrated that Russia's ability to process, store, and distribute that oil is vulnerable to repeated attack. And that is the dilemma at the center of the dispute with Washington. Trump wants to reduce prices at the pump for U.S. voters. Zelensky, meanwhile, is being asked to abandon a campaign that appears to be imposing some of the most significant economic costs Russia has suffered during the war. During its war. For Ukraine, the argument is simple. After years of trying to weaken Russia's ability to wage war, Kiev has finally found something that's delivering results. And, well, at the same time, the White House is cutting deals with Putin, easing sanctions on fuel exports in an effort to lower those diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections, while also pressuring Zelensky to unilaterally stop one of the most effective targeting efforts Ukraine has developed in their effort to damage Putin's war machine. All right, coming up next, the British government links Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, to a suspected plot against American bombers previously based in the U.K. And European intelligence agencies warn that Russia is targeting defense industry executives for assassination. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message about safeguarding your family's future. Now, setting up an estate plan used to be one of those complex, time-consuming chores that was easy to put off. But here's the truth. Taking care of your family's future shouldn't require endless legal appointments and massive attorney's fees. That's why I want to tell you about Trust & Will. Trust & Will offers affordable attorney-designed estate plans online that you can complete in minutes. Their easy-to-use platform walks you step-by-step through setting up customized documents tailored to your specific needs. 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British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament Monday that the suspected operation against RAF Fairford was, quote, highly likely coordinated from inside Iran, and almost certainly directed by the IRGC. Last month, British politicians and members of the Iranian Party, including the British Prime Minister, were arrested. The police arrested several suspects following suspicious activity near RAF Fairford. That's the British Air Force. base that had been hosting American B-1 bombers involved in operations against Iran. The arrests came amid intelligence warnings about a possible Iranian-linked attack against the installation, including concerns that drones could be used to target American aircraft. The threat was serious enough that the U.S. subsequently withdrew its B-1 bombers from the base, returning them to the U.S. But until now, British authorities had stopped short of publicly identifying who they believed was directing the suspected operation. That changed on Monday. The British government announced new sanctions against two Iranian-linked individuals. One is Ruhala Bazgandi, identified as a senior figure in the IRGC's intelligence apparatus, with responsibilities involving counter-espionage operations. The other is Shahram Ali Reza Tamarzadeh, whom British authorities linked to the Zindashti criminal network. That's an organization accused of carrying out operations against Iranian dissidents located overseas. Both men now face British asset freezes, travel restrictions, and other financial penalties. Now, Britain has not publicly established that either of these individuals personally organized the Fairford plot, but their designation illustrates a broader concern among Western intelligence agencies, and that's Iran's growing reliance on criminal organizations and other intermediaries to conduct overseas operations. And London is not the only country in the world that has been accused of doing so. The United States, not acting alone. Britain says the U.S. and 27 other countries have joined in condemning Iranian state-backed activities abroad, well, condemning it should do it, including suspected assassination plots, sabotage, and other covert operations. British authorities have been warning about this threat for years. Intelligence officials have identified numerous suspected Iranian-backed plots against individuals on British soil, particularly against dissidents and critics of the Iranian government. But the RAF Fairford incident is not the only threat. It is also a threat to the U.S. and to the United States. The U.S. and the U.S. have been warning about this threat for years. The U.S. and the U.S. The U.S. and the U.S. The Iranian government, for its part, denies involvement. Well, that is surprising. They've challenged British authorities to provide evidence supporting the allegations. There are also important details that investigators have not made public, including precisely how the suspected attack was supposed to affect the U.S. and U.S. and what direct connections exist between the arrested suspects and Iranian intelligence. Nevertheless, Britain's public attribution marks a significant development. And for European security services, the concern is that Fairford is not an isolated case, but part of a much broader Iranian campaign to threaten Western interests outside of the Middle East. All right, turning to Russia. Here on the PDB, we've been keeping an eye on Russia's campaign of sabotage, espionage, and other gray zone attacks across Europe. Now, Western intelligence agencies warn that Moscow's campaign is growing more dangerous, with the Kremlin stepping up efforts to assassinate Europe's defense industry leaders. In a new report from the Financial Times, intelligence officials from five European countries say Russian operatives are targeting chief executives and other senior employees at defense companies, particularly smaller firms manufacturing drones and components for Ukraine. As one senior European intelligence official put it, quote, the threat level has arisen in Europe, not only to property, but also to people. Now, we've already seen how far one of these alleged plots can go. Back in early 2024, American and German intelligence agencies uncovered and disrupted an alleged Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papager. He runs Rheinmetall, one of Europe's largest defense manufacturers and a major supplier of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Intelligence sources believe Moscow wanted a high-profile assassination, and Papager had been outspoken about supplying weapons to Kiev. Authorities disrupted the plot before it could be carried out. According to the Financial Times, the war in Ukraine is deadlocked on the battlefield, and Russia's economy is struggling. Against that backdrop, the Kremlin has ordered an expansion of sabotage and hybrid operations across Europe to weaken support for Kiev in the coming months. European intelligence officials say there's also been a change in what Russian intelligence services are willing to consider. Assassinating European civilians was once regarded as taboo, even within those agencies. Now, officials say, it's become a more prominent part of the campaign. And that brings us to another part of the FT report. Who is Russia actually using to carry out these operations? Well, intelligence sources say much of the responsibility falls to the GRU. That's Russia's intelligence service. The GRU reportedly works closely with organized criminal networks, spreading the work among people in different countries. So far, European authorities have already uncovered and disrupted some suspected operations, while detecting suspicious surveillance around defense industry employees' homes and workplaces. One European intelligence official told the Financial Times that some of the people Russia uses are amateurish and relatively easy to detect. Others seem far more capable. So, how are European governments and companies responding? In Germany, the Domestic Intelligence Agency has announced that Russia's intelligence services are using to carry out these operations. Russia's intelligence agency has stepped up its outreach to defense companies and employees, in some cases recommending private to close protection teams. Several executives, speaking anonymously to the FT, said they had increased their personal security over the past six months after receiving advice from government agencies. For at least one defense company, their response has been to entirely relocate production sites within Western Europe because of threats attributed to Russia on NATO's Eastern Front. When it comes to smaller manufacturing companies and startups already trying to expand production rapidly, protecting employees and securing facilities and hiring close protection teams, well, that all can become a financial burden. And that brings us to what officials believe Russia may be trying to achieve, even when an assassination never takes place. The threat alone can make people reconsider whether doing business with Ukraine is worth the risk. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, a car bomb rocks southwestern Colombia, as rebel groups intensify their attacks against government forces. More on that when we come back. Now, founder Eric Girard grew up blue-collar, and he started Brunt because, well, the big brands had stopped listening to the trades. 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The blast was witnessed Monday along the Pan American Highway near El Bordo in Colombia's southwest Cauca department, south of the major city of Cali. At least three civilians were injured. The military says the group responsible was the Los Patinos Front. Now, these are guerrillas led by former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known as the FARC, F-A-R-C. Now, the FARC was once Colombia's largest guerrilla organization. Its 2016 peace agreement with the government resulted in an estimated 14,000 fighters laying down their weapons. But the men leading this group rejected that deal and remained armed. Colombian President Espriella condemned the bombing, saying, quote, I deplore this terrorist attack. Attacking infrastructure harms people, truck drivers, and all those who need to travel, end quote. And this was already a deadly stretch in Calca. On Friday, members of the same Carlos Patino Front clashed with Colombian soldiers in the municipality of Timbio. Then on Saturday, a drone attacked a military patrol also in Calca. The military blamed that attack. A different guerrilla organization known as the ELN. Now, all of this comes as Colombia's new president moves away from negotiations and toward a more direct military confrontation with these various groups. Espriella took office in August, promising a harder line. His government has canceled peace talks with the country's remaining rebel organizations, and he's pledged to intensify operations against them. He says his government will treat them as terrorists. Now, that's a significant change from the approach of the former president of Colombia. But the government has changed its approach under his predecessor, radical socialist President Gustavo Petro. Over the previous four years, Petro's administration pursued multiple negotiations aimed at reaching peace agreements with armed groups. Now, those talks have been abandoned, and some groups have responded by stepping up attacks on the military or using intimidation to show that they still control territory and, of course, the resources that come with that control. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, 13th of October. If you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And if you happen to be jonesing for an ad-free PDB experience, just wander on over to pdbpremium.com and sign up as a premium member of the president's daily brief. It really is just that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll see you next time.