It's Monday, the 12th of October. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. Hooty Rebels launch a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia as President Trump weighs direct US military intervention in Yemen. We'll have the details. Later in the show, a report from the Wall Street Journal is showing how hackers are turning everyday security cameras into weapons of espionage using them to monitor military movements and gather intelligence. Plus, President Trump calls for new leadership in Ukraine, accusing President Zelensky of failing to end the war with Russia and blaming him for rising diesel prices in the US. Well, to be fair, the ongoing disruptions to the global energy markets from the Iran conflict could also have something to do with it. And Ukraine was invaded by Russia. So, well, there's that. And in today's back of the brief speaking of Ukraine, they've got a new strategy in their war against Russia, targeting the country's digital infrastructure. But first, today's PDP spotlight. The war in Yemen, triggered by the Iranian-backed Houthis, is threatening to draw the US into another major military confrontation in the Middle East. This, following a devastating missile attack on Saudi Arabia's capital, they killed 12 people, including an American citizen, and wounded more than 300 others. The attack occurred Saturday afternoon at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, where a missile struck a complex housing two domestic terminals. Saudi authorities say several of the wounded remain in critical condition, while the airport has been forced to suspend operations disrupting flights across the region. As we've been reporting, this attack was not an isolated incident. This was the third attack against Riyadh's main airport in just one week, with earlier strikes killing four people and damaging commercial aircraft. The Houthis have also been targeting other Saudi airports, military installations, and oil infrastructure. And following Saturday's attack, the rebels renewed their wanting to commercial airlines to stay out of Saudi airspace, threatening even more destructive attacks if Riyadh continues its military operations in Yemen. Now, the White House is considering getting directly involved. Asked Saturday whether American forces might join Saudi air strikes against the Houthis, President Trump said, quote, "We may, we are going to look at it." He added that a decision would come quickly. Later, Trump said he planned to speak with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, describing the airport attack as "unacceptable." Meanwhile, on the battlefield in Yemen, the fighting is intensifying. We've been tracking the Houthi advance through southwestern Yemen over the past several weeks. Last month, the rebels launched a major offensive that saw them seize large stretches of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including the Port City of Mokha, the Dubai district, and the strategically important island of Perim. That last location is particularly significant. Perim sits inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait. That's the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It's one of the world's most important maritime choke points, and with Iran, already threatening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, control of Bab al-Mandab has become even more consequential. That Houthi advance prompted Saudi Arabia to launch a major counter-offensive earlier this month, providing extensive air support to the Yemeni government forces with a stated objective of retaking Houthi held territory, including eventually the capital of Sana'a. And now, Saudi-backed forces are claiming some important victories. On Friday, the Saudi ambassador to Yemen declared that Bab al-Mandab had been cleared of Houthi forces. Leaders of Yemen's southern traditional council also announced that Perim Island and surrounding coastal territory had been recaptured. However, the extent of those gains remains unclear. A military spokesman for Yemen's internationally recognized government said that roughly half the contested territory had been recaptured, suggesting that fighting is continuing in the area. The Houthis, meanwhile, claim they've inflicted heavy casualties on the advancing forces, including the destruction of more than 20 armored vehicles. Those claims have not been independently verified, and it's still unclear who controls all of Perim Island. And while Saudi-backed troops may be gaining ground along the coast, the Houthis are still advancing elsewhere, including around the strategically important city of Daes, where they've threatened critical supply routes. So, despite claims of victory, the fighting is well far from over. And the events of the past week have exposed a serious vulnerability for Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom is deploying considerable military resources against the Houthis, but it hasn't been able to prevent the rebels from launching increasingly destructive attacks against Saudi Arabia. Part of the problem is air defense. According to previous associated press reporting, Saudi Arabia has been running low on missile interceptors and has been requesting additional support from several countries, which brings us back to Washington. The U.S. is already assisting the Saudi campaign through intelligence sharing, target identification, and military planning. But until now, the Trump administration has avoided directly joining the renewed campaign against the Houthis. Saudi days attack could change that calculation, particularly with an American citizen now among the dead. And there's another complication. There's always a complication. Iran, of course, remains the Houthis' principal foreign backer, supplying weapons, expertise, other resources, and assistance. The rebel's ability to threaten Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping gives Tehran another means of applying pressure on America's regional allies and the U.S. There's no public evidence that Tehran ordered Saturday's airport attack. But given that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC commanders and personnel are on the ground in Yemen advising, guiding, and providing intelligence and resources to the Houthis, it's a bit naive to imagine that the IRGC is not driving the Houthi train. You cannot separate the Iran conflict from their proxy groups renewed campaign against the Saudis. Saudi Arabia is fighting to push the Houthis away from one of the world's most important shipping routes. The Houthis are responding by bringing the war directly into the Saudi capital, threatening airports and commercial aviation and energy infrastructure. And now, President Trump faces a decision about whether to bring American forces into that fight. All right, coming up next, hackers are turning everyday security cameras into tools of espionage. And in a somewhat surreal move, President Trump calls for new leadership in Ukraine, blaming President Zelensky for rising diesel prices in the U.S. Now, I am not making that up. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're like me, you enjoy the occasional night out, right? But, well, not the morning after. That's why I want to tell you about a game-changing product, Zbiotics Pre-Alcohol. It's the world's first genetically engineered probiotic, invented by PhD scientists who tackle rough mornings. Here's the science. 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If you're trying to keep tabs on an enemy's military, well, you might think that satellites, spy planes, or human sources on the ground would be a good way to go. And, fair enough, those are extremely helpful, but sometimes all it takes is hacking a security camera that someone else has already installed. The Wall Street Journal dug into how widespread this has become in new reporting. As strange as the sounds, one particularly telling example comes from a poultry farmer in northern Israel. During the opening stages of the US and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, the farmer checked the webcam outside his chicken coop and noticed that its language had switched to Arabic. He contacted Israel's National Cyber Directorate, which then discovered that hackers had taken control of the Chinese-made camera. And obviously, it wasn't the chickens that the hackers were interested in, although chickens are fun to watch. The camera overlooked Israeli security forces near the Lebanese border, giving whomever controlled it a way to monitor those movements. Now, consider how many cameras might offer a similarly useful view. Cyber security consultants at SRM estimate that there are roughly 1.2 billion that's with a B, internet-connected cameras worldwide, from doorbell and traffic cameras to
baby monitors. Hostile governments and hacking groups scour the internet for vulnerable cameras, using automated tools to test millions of passwords until they break in. A senior vice president at Cybersecurity Company Palo Alto Networks says cameras may have limited built-in protections and may not receive security updates. Some are installed by teams responsible for maintaining buildings, without cybersecurity staff, even knowing that the cameras are there. As he told the journal, quote, "There are jobs to mount that camera powered on and walk away." In addition, some owners never changed the default passwords on their security cameras, and of course, artificial intelligence is also changing the game. The journal reports that AI helps hackers break into cameras and analyze large amounts of footage, identifying movements and patterns that would otherwise require hundreds or even thousands of hours of work by humans. And the battlefield consequences are already visible. In late 2022, an international pro-Ukrainian hacking group called Team OneFist took control of a camera high on a coastal building in Sevastopol in Russian-controlled Crimea. The hackers could rotate and zoom the camera to monitor Russian helicopters, submarines, and ships. They followed a Russian military helicopter to what they described as a previously unknown airbase near a local airport. The group passed that information to Ukrainian forces, which attacked the base soon afterward. And Russia has been exploiting the same opportunity against Ukraine. In 2024, Russian hackers took over residential webcams in Kiev, including one used to monitor a condominium's neighborhood. Ukraine's Security Service, the SBU, says Russia intended to use the feeds to locate targets and, quote, "to adjust missile attacks" on Ukraine. Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022, the SBU says it is identified roughly 40,000 cameras that posed potential security risks, and then either secured, redirected or blocked them. Russian surveillance also extends into the country's supplying Ukraine. Dutch intelligence agencies warned in July that Russian state actors were hacking cameras across Europe to gather information about military transport routes and Western weapons deliveries to Kiev. In Iran, the journal reports that Israeli hackers accessed traffic cameras earlier this year to help gather intelligence used in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran-linked groups are targeting Israeli cameras as well. Israel's National Cyber Directorate says those Iranian groups have compromised more than 250 sensitive security cameras this year, posing an immediate danger to national security. Now, given these glaring security lapses, some Western countries have banned Chinese camera brands due to security concerns or suspected adversarial government ties. All right, I want to turn to the US, where President Trump is negotiating with Vladimir Putin in an effort to get Russia to help bring down diesel prices in the US. But an agreement with Putin is drawing pushback from his own party. Some are arguing that the deal will provide more relief to Putin than to Americans at the gas pumps. With diesel prices at record levels and the November 3rd US mid-term elections just weeks away, Trump is under pressure to bring those costs down, although, well, he has said repeatedly that he doesn't even think about the mid-term elections. As for the phone call with Putin, the stated purpose was that Trump planned to speak with Putin about the suspected plague case at a research laboratory in Siberia. But when the two spoke Friday, they also reportedly discussed energy supplies. And reportedly, Putin, for his own reasons and agenda, agreed to work with Trump on this effort to lower diesel prices. So you ask yourself, reasonably, exactly what has Putin proposed to do. Well, Trump says Moscow will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, followed by another 500,000 tons in November. And 1 million tons quote immediately thereafter. He also announced another 3 million tons quote within a short period of time. And you may be asking yourself, well, why would Putin be so quick to agree? Well, it's because it's in his own best interests. Russia gets to sell that fuel and collect the revenue. To facilitate those sales, the White House has temporarily eased restrictions on Russian fuel exports, giving Moscow relief from sanctions intended to squeeze its war funding. That represents, of course, a significant reversal. Well, just last month, Trump signed sweeping sanctions that targeted Russia's oil and gas sector. But well, that was last month. Now, US voters are still staring at high fuel costs, and those midterm elections that the President doesn't care about are only three weeks away. Putting aside the idea that the US is now willing to stuff money into Putin's war chest in order to lower gas prices, there are the simple market mechanics of it all. And that's where energy analysts who spoke with Axios are somewhat skeptical. They doubt that the initial shipments will be enough to meaning flea lower prices, especially while the broader disruptions driving those prices remain in place. The US conflict with Iran has made it difficult to move oil out of the Middle East, pushing up costs across global energy markets. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have added another source of pressure. There are also questions about whether Moscow can deliver everything that Trump has announced. Well, there's also the question of should you be offering a deal to the invading party, in this case, Putin, in order to get fuel prices to drop a bit for American voters. On Capitol Hill, Trump is facing opposition from his own side. Republican representative Brian Fitzpatrick, who co-chairs the Congressional Ukraine caucus, says he'll introduce a bill called the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act to block Russian oil purchases. Fitzpatrick plans to use a discharge petition to bring it to a vote. Now, that's a procedure that allows lawmakers to bypass House leadership if they collect 218 signatures. It's around the Democrats have used to get around House Speaker Mike Johnson. But the timing is tight. The House isn't scheduled to resume voting until after the November elections, and the bill would still need Senate approval and could face Trump's veto. While that Congressional challenge takes shape, Trump's agreement is deepening his dispute with Kiev over the Ukraine military's ongoing refinery attacks inside Russia. Trump has spent weeks urging Ukraine and President Zelensky to stop those strikes, arguing that they're disrupting diesel supplies and hurting Americans who depend on the fuel. Speaking to reporters Saturday, he accused Zelensky of wanting to "make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel." Well, maybe Zelensky is just defending his country against an invading nation. He then took that criticism much further, calling for Ukraine to replace Zelensky. Quote, I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal, because he could have made many deals, and for some reason he never does, end quote. Ukraine sees us refineries as part of Russia's war machine, providing both export revenue and fuel from military operations. From an operational perspective, well, that is an accurate realistic assessment. On Sunday, Zelensky said Ukraine was willing to halt attacks on Russian refineries if Moscow stopped striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but he said any arrangement would require "real guarantees." Putin has refused to discuss any even temporary ceasefire on energy infrastructure. Now Putin has continued to conduct almost daily drone and missile barrage is targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and has directly claimed that Moscow's goal is to drive Ukrainian citizens out of their cities ahead of the winter. So yeah, the White House is now easing pressure on Putin so that U.S. voters might possibly see prices fall a bit at the pumps prior to the mid-term elections. While the White House is also pressuring Zelensky to unilaterally stop reciprocal attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, as Putin continues his nearly five-year invasion. Apparently, it appears from President Trump's own comments that Zelensky is the villain in this conflict, and the White House has decided that Zelensky is to blame if the Republicans do poorly in the elections. Meanwhile, somewhere, often the distance, Putin sits quietly, chuckling in one of his posh expensive duchess, quietly petting the hairless cat sitting on his lap. Coming up in the back of the brief, Ukraine is taking its drone war into new territory, targeting the massive data centers powering Russia's technology sector. More on that when we come back. Now regular listeners of the PDB know that I spend a lot of time on the road, right? So I've become a bit of a, well, a travel luggage savant. And that's why I'm very happy to tell you about noble travel. That's noble N-O-B-L. Look, I've traveled with plenty of luggage in my day that looked great, but at the end of the day didn't hold up under travel conditions, or it just wasn't practical. 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If you don't mind, tell them the PDB sent you. In today's back of the brief, Ukraine appears to be opening a new front in its war against Russia, targeting the country's digital infrastructure in a series of drone strikes. Last week, we reported on a Ukrainian attack against a major Russian data center operated by Yandex, as the technology giant, often described as Russia's version of Google. At the time, it was the first major strike of its kind against a Russian data facility. Well, in the day's sense, we've seen two more similar attacks. And what initially looked like an isolated strike is now emerging as a deliberate campaign against Russia's technology infrastructure. The first attack came overnight Wednesday into Thursday, when Ukrainian drones struck a Yandex data center in Sassivo, at Southeast Moscow. The attacks sparked a fire, damaged critical infrastructure, and forced the facility to shut down completely. Then on Friday, Ukrainian drones hit another Yandex data center in the Kaluga region, southwest of Moscow. That strike knocked several sections of the facility out of commission. And now a third attack, early Sunday, drone struck another Yandex data center in Vladimir, east of Moscow, forcing that facility to shut down as well. So in the span of just four days, Ukrainian drones have hit three of Yandex's five major Russian data centers, two have been completely shut down, while the third has suffered significant damage. Yandex provides much of the infrastructure supporting Russia's digital economy. We're talking about everything from search engines and navigation systems to ride-hailing services online payments and cloud computing platforms used by thousands of Russian businesses. The attacks have already disrupted a variety of services, including some used by Russian railways and other major companies. Following Sunday's strike Yandex warned customers that it's remaining computing infrastructure was unstable and advised them to activate emergency recovery plans. There's also an artificial intelligence component to all of this. The first facility hit in Sassivo reportedly houses two of the three supercomputers that Yandex uses to develop and train its artificial intelligence models. Those systems rely on advanced Nvidia processors, that's the kind of technology, Russia already has difficulty obtaining because of Western sanctions. Now we don't know whether these supercomputers were actually destroyed, but if they suffered serious damage replacing that computer capacity could prove extremely difficult. For its part, Ukraine isn't being particularly coy about what's happening. President Zelensky has described the strikes as retaliation for Russian attacks against Ukrainian data centers and telecommunications infrastructure. In his words, Ukraine is responding in kind, similar to their targeting of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. And there's one more interesting detail. According to Russian reporting, Yandex has now updated its customer agreements to explicitly include drone and missile attacks among the circumstances that could prevent the company from fulfilling its obligations. So one of Russia's biggest technology companies is now writing the possibility of aerial bombardment directly into its business contracts. Ukraine has spent months going after Russian oil refineries, fuel depots and industrial facilities trying to weaken the economic infrastructure supporting Putin's war machine. Now it appears to be applying that same strategy to Russia's digital economy. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Monday, the 12th of October. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at
[email protected]. And finally, I hope that you had a chance over the weekend to catch our latest episode of the PDB situation report. Excellent guests as always, insightful analysis, the occasional okay question from the host, and still no house band. Now I've issued a very stern memo to the PDB executives insisting that we have a house band in place by the holiday season and better snacks in the grain room. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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