November 6th, 2026: Trump Weighs New Iran Strikes & Ukraine Targets Russian Oil

It's Friday, the 6th of November. How about that? Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, President Trump faces a difficult decision on Iran following Republican losses in the U.S. midterm elections. I'll have the details. Later in the show, a surprising new intelligence assessment reveals that Iran continues to be a potential player in space warfare with capabilities that could threaten American forces. Plus, Ukrainian drones strike a major refinery supplying Moscow as Kiev presses its campaign against Russia's energy industry despite objections from the White House. Well, that might be because Putin has not stopped his near-daily attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Yeah, that might have something to do with it. And in today's Back of the Brief, a former FBI counterintelligence agent is accused of stealing a million dollars from a foreign adversary and then turning to chat GPT for help planning his retirement. There you go. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. President Trump is facing a difficult decision over Iran, and the political cost of the war is now impossible for his administration to ignore. As you may have heard, Republicans suffered major defeats in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections, that's putting it mildly. Now, countless politicians and pundits, including the vice president, have their reasons or thoughts on why the Republicans took such a beating. In case you're wondering, Vice President J.D. Vance has publicly pointed to the Iran war as a central reason. In a statement on social media Wednesday, Vance wrote, quote, the reason we lost is the war, end quote. And President Trump didn't entirely, quote, end quote. apparently. He acknowledged that the conflict and the resulting spike in gasoline prices hurt Republicans. Well, yeah. But he also defended his decision to attack Iran, arguing that Tehran couldn't be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Now, according to new reporting from Axios, the president faces three options, restart major military operations, negotiate a settlement, or continue squeezing Iran economically while avoiding another large-scale attack. And of course, none of those options are going to happen. So, what's going to happen? Well, the president's options guarantees the outcome that Washington wants. The first option is to resume the bombing campaign. American officials tell Axios that the military is completing preparations for another round of major combat operations, including additional deployments to the region. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pushed Trump toward renewed strikes, arguing that Tehran can't be trusted to make or honor any agreement. But another offensive could obviously drive up energy prices even higher, trigger more attacks on America, and, of course, the U.S. and the United States and other countries. Well, first of all, there's going to be a lot of conflict. There's going to be a lot of conflict that's already exacted a political price at home. There's also no guarantee that another round of bombing would resolve the disputes over Iran's nuclear program or the Strait of Hormuz. The second option is diplomacy. Qatari mediators have prepared a draft proposal designed to bring the Americans and Iranians back into direct negotiations and prevent renewed fighting. Vice President Vance has been pushing Trump toward negotiations. He's been pushing Trump toward a new deal with the United States. He's been pushing him toward an agreement. According to Axios, he warned privately for months that the war was deeply unpopular and has criticized Netanyahu's approach to Iran. Apparently, White House envoy Steve Woodgolf also favors trying to make a deal. Well, yeah, that is, after all, what an envoy is supposed to do. But diplomacy brings its own problems. Iran has resisted American demands, and Iranian officials may now believe their bargaining position has improved after the talks. That's one of the reasons why the regime dragged out potential negotiations. Their assumption was that extending the conflict would test the patience of Americans, negatively impact energy prices, and ultimately upset U.S. voters. And as it turns out, well, the regime's strategy was relatively effective. The election results could now encourage Tehran to hold out for greater concessions, even as the U.S. insists on restrictions designed to prevent the U.S. from rebuilding its nuclear program. Which brings us to the third option, keep the economic pressure on without engaging in a major renewed military campaign. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have reportedly advised Trump to maintain the naval blockade and economic sanctions rather than rush into another war or accept a deal on unfavorable terms. The theory is that prolonged economic pressure could push Tehran toward compromise or create enough internal strain to weaken the regime. Of course, the problem is time. That approach could take months or longer without any assurance that Iran's leaders will change course. And it would leave the present confrontation unresolved. As we reported yesterday, commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf continues to come under attack, with Iran using maritime pressure to challenge the U.S. and its partners. The blockade could remain in place while ships continue to face threats, energy markets remain unsettled, and the risk of another clash persists. Meanwhile, Iranian leaders are openly celebrating the American midterm election results. Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and former IRGC head, claimed the Iranian people had handed Trump a military defeat in the region and a political defeat in Washington. The rhetoric reveals a serious danger. Iran's leaders may conclude that Trump's weakened political position, means that he's unwilling to use force again. Some analysts warn that misreading the president's domestic difficulties could encourage Tehran to overplay its hand, raising demands or escalating attacks in precisely the moment that Washington is trying to find an exit. And Trump faces pressure in the other direction. He's already defended the war as necessary. Reaching an agreement that appears to reward Iranian defiance would be politically difficult, while ordering more strikes could worsen the situation. The U.S. and its partners have said that the U.S. and its partners will have to work together to address the U.S. and its partners' problems. So the president is balancing military preparations, diplomatic proposals, and a continuing economic blockade, all while Iran crows over the midterm results. All right, coming up next, new U.S. intelligence reveals Iran's growing space warfare capabilities, and Ukrainian drones strike a major Russian oil refinery despite White House objections. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for all you pet owners out there. Now, here's the thing. There is a specific kind of panic that hits when you call your pet's name and they don't come back. Maybe a gate was left open. Maybe they slipped a leash. Maybe a door was held open a second too long. If you've been through it, you know the feeling that comes with realizing your pet is lost. But with FI, that's F-I, with FI, that panic fades fast. Just open your phone, see where they are, and get busy retrieving little snowball or Lassie. Or whatever your pet's name is. 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Tell them the President's Daily Brief sent you. Welcome back to the PDB. The new Pentagon intelligence assessment is raising concerns about Iran's ability to wage electronic and space warfare against American forces, despite months of U.S. military strikes targeting Tehran's military infrastructure. According to Axios, the Defense Intelligence Agency, well, does that have an acronym? Of course it does. It's DIA, still considers Iran an emerging space power capable of disrupting American military operations and exploiting satellite technology to improve its ability to destroy and destroy. The new Pentagon intelligence assessment is raising to strike U.S. targets. And the findings present an interesting contrast with earlier declarations from the Pentagon. Back in March of this year, CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper announced that American forces had achieved space superiority over Iran following strikes against the country's Space Command and other military facilities. But the latest intelligence assessment indicates that the regime retains capabilities that could threaten American operations, particularly through electronic warfare. One of Iran's primary tools has been GPS jamming. These are ground-based systems designed to interfere with the satellite navigation signals used by military aircraft, drones, ships, and precision-guided weapons. By transmitting electronic interference, Iranian forces have been able to disrupt the signals that military equipment rely heavily on. We've already seen the dangers of this technology in the Persian Gulf. In September, the U.S. Maritime Administration warned of widespread GPS interference affecting Iran. The U.S. is currently using commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Some vessels have experienced navigation disruptions while others have encountered GPS spoofing. That's a technique that feeds receivers false location information. In some cases, ships can appear on navigation displays miles from their actual positions. And that, of course, is particularly dangerous in a narrow and heavily trafficked waterway like the Strait of Hormuz, where even minor navigation errors can have serious consequences. And while the source of this information is unknown, the U.S. has not yet been able to find any other source of information. The U.S. And while the source of every interference incident hasn't been established, the broader threat illustrates how electronic warfare can disrupt operations. But there's another dimension to Iran's space capabilities that's attracting American attention. That would be foreign satellite intelligence. According to Axios, U.S. officials are concerned about Tehran's access to satellite imagery that can help Iranian forces identify American military positions, monitor troop movements, and potentially improve the accuracy of their attacks. And this is where China enters the picture. Earlier this year, the Financial Times reported that Iran had gained access to a Chinese-built surveillance satellite capable of collecting high-resolution imagery. And that's a report that we covered here on the PDB. The U.S. has sanctioned several Chinese companies accused of supplying satellite intelligence that helped Iran target American forces. Russia, of course, has played a role as well, launching Iranian satellites into orbit and assisting Tehran's broader space operations. In addition to their own, Iran can potentially rely on foreign satellites for reconnaissance and targeting information, even when their own infrastructure has been damaged. Military analysts do note that Iran's capabilities still remain relatively limited. But those limitations don't make the threat irrelevant. A country doesn't need to dominate space to interfere with an adversary that depends heavily on satellite technology. And that's why some defense experts are questioning CENCOM, Iran's earlier declaration of space superiority. The U.S. may possess overwhelming military and technology advantages over Iran, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Tehran has lost the ability to disrupt American operations. The intelligence assessment from the DIA also indicates that Iran is working to make its own guidance and navigation systems more resistant to electronic interference. And with President Trump considering another round of military operations against Iran, these capabilities, could become increasingly relevant. All right. Turning now to Ukraine, where despite objections from the Trump administration, and despite another round of peace negotiations possibly on the horizon, Kyiv is pressing ahead with its campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure, arguing that despite Ukraine's past willingness to pause such attacks, Putin has yet to show any interest in stopping the near-daily Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Last night, Ukrainian drones struck a major oil plant, the Riazon oil refinery, that supplies Moscow as part of a widening offensive aimed at disrupting Russia's fuel production and putting additional economic pressure on the Kremlin. And this was not an isolated attack. In just the past week, Ukrainian forces have targeted all three of the major refineries responsible for supplying gasoline to the Russian capital. According to the Washington Post, the latest attack targeted the Riazon oil refinery located southeast of Moscow, along with a nearby logistics facility, the Riazon oil refinery, located southeast of Moscow, along with a nearby logistics facility, operated by Wildberries, that's Russia's equivalent of Amazon. Russian authorities reported fires at industrial facilities, damage from falling drone debris, and at least one person injured. Parts of the surrounding area temporarily lost electricity. Moscow claims its air defenses intercepted hundreds of Ukrainian drones during the overnight assault. Now, the extent of the refinery damage remains unclear. But Riazon is a particularly important target. 340,000 barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for nearly 5% of Russia's total refining capacity. And earlier this week, Ukrainian drones also attacked major refineries in Nizhny Novgorod and Yaroslavl. Together, those three facilities represent a critical source of gasoline for Moscow and, of course, the surrounding region. Ukrainian intelligence officials claim the campaign is producing significant results. According to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Agency, long-range drone strikes have knocked 15 of Russia's 38 principal oil refineries out of operation since September. That's nearly 40%, if my math serves me well. The Washington Post could not independently verify that figure, and it does not mean all those facilities remain shut down. Still, the attacks have contributed to fuel shortages, rising prices, and restrictions on Russian gasoline exports. And that is creating friction with Washington. President Trump has repeatedly urged both Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. Last month, he unilaterally announced what he described as an energy ceasefire, intended to prevent further damage, while American negotiators pursued a broader peace agreement. But neither Moscow nor Kiev formally agreed to such an arrangement. Ukraine did suspend its strikes before then resuming the campaign, arguing that Russia had continued bombing Ukrainian power plants and electrical infrastructure. And Kiev believes its attacks on Russian refineries provide important leverage ahead of negotiations. Ukrainian officials argue that damaging Russia's energy industry is one of the very few ways they can impose substantial economic costs on Moscow without launching major ground offensives. The latest attack also came just hours before an unusual diplomatic gathering at the White House. First Lady Melania Trump hosted representatives from both Russia and Ukraine on Thursday, recognizing a limited temporary humanitarian ceasefire that allowed civilian evacuations and aid deliveries to one town in Russian-occupied territory. Among those participating was Kirill Dmitriev, a senior envoy to Vladimir Putin. The gathering came ahead of U.S. brokered peace negotiations that are reportedly scheduled for November 10th and 11th in Abu Dhabi. The continued attacks, though, illustrate the enormous gap between the potential diplomatic discussions and the reality on the battlefield. And while Washington is pressuring Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, Moscow continues targeting Ukraine's own energy infrastructure. Russian missile and drone attacks have damaged electrical facilities across the country, forcing scheduled blackouts and leaving communities struggling with electricity and heating as winter approaches. For Kiev, that is the fundamental problem with Trump's proposed energy ceasefire. Ukrainian officials are reluctant to surrender one of their most effective means of pressuring Russia, while the Kremlin continues attacking the infrastructure that keeps Ukrainian homes and businesses running. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, a former FBI agent is accused of stealing nearly a million dollars from one of America's adversaries and then asking ChatGPT for retirement advice. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with another holiday shopping tip because, well, the holidays are right around the corner. Now, we all know that holiday shopping can be tough, right, when you want to find something truly meaningful for somebody on your list. Now, for me, thinking about my family, especially as we get older, made me realize that the best thing I could give them wasn't necessarily just some physical gift, but better health and peace of mind. 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and use code pdb for 20 percent of your life off again that's excite osa at springsleep.com slash pdb and of course thanks very much to springsleep for sponsoring this episode disclaimer excite osa is an fda cleared prescription only device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea it's not for everyone individual results may vary check out the risks and benefits at springsleep.com hey mike baker here well have you heard it is now officially cozy season yeah yeah that's right my amazing wife keeps me informed on these things and at the baker compound well cozy earth has earned its place on the list of our family's favorite purveyors of all things cozy cozy earth's sheets as an example are soft and incredibly comfortable my wife particularly appreciates how these sheets keep you cool at night and i appreciate anything that cuts down on negotiations over the thermostat controls then there's the bubble cuddle blanket yes that is the actual name and i'm going to show you a 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pdb to save today offer valent for a limited time and you'll be able to buy a whole bunch of trees for a limited time terms and conditions may apply in today's back of the brief a former fbi counter intelligence agent is accused of stealing nearly a million dollars in cryptocurrency from a foreign adversary and then turning to chat gpt for advice on how to spend his ill-gotten fortune apparently the plan involved retiring to a vineyard in portugal well that sounds lovely according to the washington post 37 year old patrick yarol was a supervisor in the fbi's counterintelligence and espionage division where he had access to some of the government's most sensitive investigations prosecutors say yarol began accessing classified files involving cases that he was not assigned to oh well sometimes we would consider that to be a red flag memorizing passphrases that allowed him to unlock cryptocurrency wallets belonging to an adversarial foreign government and you ask yourself well which government authorities have yet to say but apparently yarol was frustrated or at least so he says that the fbi wasn't doing more to seize the money that's it he was just being a good samaritan he allegedly decided to take matters into his own hands transferring approximately one million dollars in cryptocurrency into his personal account and that's when his retirement planning began oddly enough according to court documents yarol opened chat gpt and posed a rather interesting hypothetical he asked if you had about a million dollars and wanted to leave the u.s to become a resident or citizen of a european union country where would you go and chat gpt recommended portugal and yarol apparently thought well that sounds pretty good in may he traveled to portugal without notifying the federal government hired portuguese lawyers and began exploring the possibility of purchasing a vineyard a beautiful estate in the portuguese countryside why not few acres of grapes some homemade wine in the evenings all financed allegedly by a cryptocurrency belonging to one of america's foreign adversaries there was just one problem yarol never actually got around to spending the money and before he could begin his new career as a portuguese winemaker he was arrested but here's perhaps the strangest part of the entire story according to his attorney the fbi didn't actually catch yarol stealing the money instead he supposedly confessed his lawyer says he was overcome with remorse and voluntarily reported his activities to authorities prosecutor what a guy prosecutors meanwhile aren't particularly impressed with the suggestion that yarol was some kind of patriotic robin hood stealing from america's enemies they argue the evidence shows he intended to enrich himself yarol was scheduled to plead guilty thursday in federal court in virginia now i don't know this for a fact but i suspect the wine choices in prison are somewhat limited perhaps a a nice full burgundy to pair with that metal tray of mystery meat and powdered potatoes and that my friends is the president's daily brief for friday the friday the sixth of november now if you have any questions or comments please reach out to me at pdb at the first tv.com and of course as you just heard me say today is friday pdb stalwarts know that every friday we launch a brand new episode of our weekend show the pdb situation report and as always it's filmed in living color and features stereophonic surround sound it's really something this week's excellent guests include david daoud from the foundation from the defense of democracies david provides insight into the recent israeli elections what the u.s midterm election the results mean for the future of u.s israel relations and and also so we look at the termination of military financial aid to jerusalem also on this weekend's show rick de la torre is a former senior cia official rick was the station chief in caracas and so we look at the return of opposition leader maria corino machado to venezuela and the potential for free and fair elections at some point in the future as always you can catch this latest episode of the situation report at 10 p.m tonight on the first tv and of course on our youtube channel i hope you'll check that out just wander on over to youtube and search up at president's daily brief and of course you can find the situation report past and current episodes on podcast platforms wherever you get your podcast stuff i'm mike baker and i'll be back later today with the pdb afternoon bulletin until then stay informed stay safe stay cool