November 5th, 2026: Iran's New Guerrilla War in the Strait of Hormuz & Poland's Russian Border Alert

It's Thursday, the 5th of November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran is turning to guerrilla warfare in the street of Hormuz, using underwater drones and naval mines and explosives attached to vessels to challenge American naval forces and disrupt global shipping. Later in the show, Poland mobilizes security forces along its border with Russia, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns of a possible provocation targeting NATO's Eastern Front. Well, that's what 2026 needed, wasn't it? More provocation, more conflict. Huzzah. Plus, Ukraine's security establishment, faces another scandal, as investigators accuse senior intelligence and law enforcement officials of protecting criminal operations in exchange for bribes. And in today's back of the brief, after targeting supermarket freezers across Europe, hackers have reportedly struck again, this time attacking refrigerated blood supplies in France. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Iran is changing the way that it fights in the street of Hormuz, turning more and more to guerrilla-style attacks against commercial shipping, as American forces continue to patrol the waterway and maintain a blockade of Iranian ports. According to a new investigation by the Wall Street Journal, Tehran is increasingly relying on explosive underwater drones, naval mines and small attack boats to threaten tankers and disrupt oil exports. One recent incident illustrates the strategy. On the 29th of October, a small boat approached an oil tanker traveling through the strait. The boat flew 25 nautical miles northeast of the Omani port of Kassab. The attackers attached two explosive devices to the vessel's hull just above the waterline. The explosives detonated, igniting a fire in the engine room and temporarily disabling the ship. The vessel, identified by maritime security sources as the Panama-flagged Luis I, survived the attack. The crew escaped injury, firefighters extinguished the blaze, and the tanker eventually continued its voyage. But this is not the end of the story for Tehran. Take a look at the latest reports from Tehran. Tehran's forces have not publicly established who carried out that particular attack. Oh, who could it be? If only we had clues. But regional officials and security analysts say it reflects a broader Iranian campaign that's become increasingly aggressive in recent weeks. The Journal reports that Iran is employing several unconventional weapons. Among them are explosive-laden underwater drones. Iranian forces are also using small boats armed with rocket-propelled grenades and teams capable of attaching limpet mines directly to ships. Tehran's forces have not publicly established who carried out that attack. Oh, who could it be? Iran's forces are also employing several unconventional weapons. Iran's forces are also employing several rocket-propelled grenades and teams capable of attaching limpet mines directly to ships. Now, limpet mines are explosive charges designed to stick to a vessel's hull, typically using magnets. They're relatively inexpensive, can be deployed from small boats, and can cause substantial damage, of course, without requiring a conventional naval engagement. Now, none of these tactics are new. Iran has used small boat attacks and limpet mines many times in the past, including during confrontations with commercial shipping back in 2019. But what's changed is the military environment in which Iran is operating. Oh, who could it be? Oh, who could it be? Oh, who could it be? After months of American strikes, much of Iran's conventional naval capability has been destroyed. U.S. forces have attacked warships, coastal defenses, missile positions, and other infrastructure used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, to threaten shipping. Last week, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM, described just how much the balance of power has shifted. After flying over the Strait of Hormuz, Cooper said he observed commercial vessels and American military assets throughout the waterway, but he said there was something missing. He said, quote, I didn't see the IRGC out there at all, end quote. Well, Cooper said American forces had destroyed Iran's navy and cleared the principal shipping routes of naval mines. CENTCOM also reports that more than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully passed through the Strait with American support over the past six months. Now, rather than attempting to challenge American warships directly, Tehran is dispersing its remaining capabilities, relying on smaller weapons and operating methods that are much harder to detect. The Journal reports that Iran has increasingly turned to spotters aboard civilian-looking boats to monitor commercial shipping. Those observers then blend in to ordinary maritime traffic, and they relay information about passing vessels without relying entirely on coastal radar installations that American aircraft can locate and destroy. The result is an asymmetric campaign in which Iran can inflict damage at relatively little cost while forcing the U.S. to commit substantial resources to protecting commercial traffic. And the attacks are increasing. According to the Journal, British maritime authorities recorded more than 35 attacks against shipping during October. Now, that's the highest monthly total since the war began. At least five additional vessels have reportedly been struck in the opening days of November. Iran has also claimed that four tankers were destroyed after striking naval mines near the strait. However, those claims have not been independently verified, and Gulf officials believe Tehran may be exaggerating the mine threat to frighten shipping companies. Look, the reality is, Iran doesn't need to sink dozens of tankers to disrupt international commerce. It only needs to convince shipping and insurance companies that the risk of sending their vessels to the strait is too great. And the economic consequences are substantial. According to shipping data firm Kapler, oil flows through Hormuz averaged approximately 7.8 million barrels per day during the week ending the 1st of November. Now, that's roughly 45% of pre-war levels following a period in October when shipments had nearly recovered to pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reports that transporting crude oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia costs nearly $37 per barrel in mid-October. That's more than five times the pre-war price. And, of course, those additional expenses are ultimately reflected in global energy markets and at the local gas station. For Washington, the ongoing challenge is clear. American forces have severely degraded Iran's conventional navy, and they've restored substantial commercial traffic while maintaining a blockade against Iranian ports. But defeating Iran's conventional naval force has not yet translated into an open, stable, and safe Strait of Hormuz. However, in the long run, this is not the end of the game. The U.S. military can't match American naval firepower. That's a statement of the obvious. But by adapting its tactics and targeting vulnerable commercial vessels, it can continue, and is continuing, to impose costs, disrupting trade, and maintaining pressure on Washington. Coming up next, Poland mobilizes forces along its border with Russia over fears of a major Kremlin provocation. And a corruption scandal implicates senior Ukrainian security officials. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, we've all heard those radio ads, right, about the IRS. You know the ones I'm talking about. They tell you to be afraid, and they try to frighten you into calling. Well, tax relief advocates, TRA, is different. Look, if you owe money to the IRS, whether it's $5,000 or $50,000 or $500,000, TRA has a solution to your tax problem. Don't lose hope. TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe to the IRS. Their passion is taxes and helping individuals and businesses fix their IRS problems. They've got over 1,000 five-star Google reviews, and an A-plus with the Better Business Bureau. Here's the thing. You do not need to be afraid of the IRS any longer. Generous tax relief programs are now available that can give you a fresh start. So don't wait. Simply visit TRA.com. That's TRA.com. Or call the number 800-583-6515. Once again, that's 800-583-6515. Tax relief advocates, real solutions for real people. Welcome back to the BDB. Poland has launched a major security operation along its border with Russia, following intelligence warnings that Moscow could be preparing sabotage or armed provocations against the NATO member. The operation is focused on Poland's northeastern frontier with Kaliningrad. Now, that's the heavily militarized Russian territory that's sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. And Poland is also preparing for a major security operation against the NATO member. And Polish authorities say they may have already disrupted a potential incident. Shortly after midnight Tuesday, border guards reportedly spotted several individuals carrying flashlights near the frontier. Security forces responded, and the unidentified individuals withdrew toward Russian territory. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the rapid response may have prevented a serious provocation. However, he added, the authorities could not establish what the individuals were planning, and there's been no confirmation that anyone crossed the border or attempted an attack. The incident comes amid unusually specific intelligence warnings. According to Polish officials, the country's military intelligence service and allied agencies received information suggesting that Russia might attempt hostile operations along the border during the first half of November. The potential threats reportedly include sabotage against critical infrastructure and incursions by small groups of armed personnel. Tusk also said he'd received warnings from General Alexis Grinkovich, NATO's top military commander in Europe, regarding possible hostile activity. In response, Poland has mobilized additional police officers, border guards, counterterrorism units, and military personnel, including members of its elite special operations force. A special command center has been established in Warsaw to coordinate the operation, which is expected to continue through at least the 8th of November. Now, the geography here is particularly important. Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea, separated from mainland Russia but positioned directly against NATO territory. It hosts significant Russian military forces and provides Moscow with a strategic foothold between Poland and Lithuania. Just to the southeast lies the Suwalki Gap. That's a narrow corridor along the Polish-Lithuanian border that connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO. Military planners have long identified this area as a potential flashpoint in any confrontation between Russia and the NATO alliance. A conflict threatening that corridor could complicate NATO's ability to reinforce Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. But Polish officials are not currently warning of a full-scale Russian invasion. Their immediate concern is something smaller and potentially more difficult to manage. Covert sabotage, armed infiltrators, or a confrontation deliberately engineered to test NATO's response. Warsaw has repeatedly accused Russian intelligence services of conducting sabotage and other hostile operations on Polish territory. Russian aircraft and drones have also repeatedly violated NATO airspace, contributing to growing concerns about the possibility of an incident escalating beyond Ukraine. Thank you for watching. The latest security operation reflects Poland's determination to prevent such an incident before it develops. But there are still important unanswered questions. Neither Polish authorities nor NATO have publicly disclosed the intelligence behind these latest warnings. And while Tusk believes Tuesday's suspicious border activity may have been connected to a planned provocation, there is no publicly available evidence establishing Russian involvement in that particular incident. All right. Turning our focus to Ukraine. Ukraine, where a sweeping corruption investigation has reached into the highest levels of the country's security establishment, exposing an alleged criminal protection racket involving intelligence officers, police officials, and prosecutors. The investigation took a dramatic turn Wednesday when anti-corruption detectives reportedly found themselves threatened with gunfire while attempting to search the property of a senior intelligence officer. According to Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau, detectives arrived with a court-issued warrant, only to be denied entry by an officer from the Security Service of Ukraine known as the SBU. The bureau says the officer threatened to use a firearm. Ukrainian media identified him as Major General Serhii Duka, as a senior officer responsible for protecting national security. Later Wednesday, Ukraine's Skopravda reported that Duka had been detained, citing sources within law enforcement. Authorities have not independently confirmed that arrest. Investigators say they've uncovered a criminal organization, involving at least 12 individuals, including senior officials from Ukraine's intelligence service, national police, and prosecutor general's office. The operation, known as Carthage, allegedly involved an extensive network of fraudulent call centers, employing approximately 2,700 people, scamming victims both inside Ukraine and abroad. But the illegal activities reportedly went far beyond financial fraud. Investigators say the network was also involved in distributing narcotics, producing counterfeit cigarettes and foreign currency, and, of course, violent assaults and kidnappings. And rather than shutting these operations down, certain government officials allegedly accepted bribes to protect them. According to investigators, the criminal organization used its connections inside law enforcement to obtain protection from prosecution and to keep the illegal businesses operating. The investigation has already produced significant consequences. Ukraine's acting intelligence chief, Oleksandr Poklat, confirmed Wednesday that two senior SBU officers implicated in the investigation have been dismissed. The national police has suspended officers under investigation, while the prosecutor general's office says it's cooperating with authorities. Well, that's nice. The scandal actually began unfolding in September, when investigators accused a senior prosecutor of helping operate a protection racket involving fraudulent call centers. That investigation contributed to the resignation of Ukraine's prosecutor general, Ruslan Kravchenko, although he's not been charged with a crime. Kravchenko has since accused investigators, of pursuing a politically motivated campaign designed to destabilize Ukraine. And there's some history here. Ukraine's independent anti-corruption bureau and the SBU have been locked in a bitter institutional dispute. Last year, the intelligence service arrested anti-corruption detectives in operations that critics characterized as an attempt to undermine the bureau's independence. Now, anti-corruption investigators are investigating the intelligence service. And Wednesday brought another corruption development. Investigators announced they had completed a separate investigation into an alleged money laundering operation involving Ukraine's energy sector, where more than $111 million and 12 million euros were reportedly laundered. Now, that's a separate case, but it does illustrate the broader corruption challenges confronting President Zelensky's government. For Ukraine, these investigations present two realities. On one hand, allegations that intelligence and law enforcement officials protected organized crime raised serious questions. About corruption inside institutions entrusted with national security. On the other, the fact that independent investigators are pursuing senior officials demonstrates that Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies continue operating, even when their targets include some of the country's most powerful institutions. And with Ukraine seeking European Union membership while fighting, of course, a costly war, the outcome of these investigations could have consequences extending well beyond the individuals accused. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, hackers target French blood banks, remotely raising refrigeration temperatures at facilities storing critical blood supplies. More on that when we come back. Now, the President's Daily Brief is brought to you by Maud. Maud prescribes a once or twice daily modafinil drink that can keep you energized, focused, and alert, and it all sounds excellent. Here's the science. Caffeine energy drinks block what's known as adenosine, that's the chemical that makes you tired. It builds up, and when the caffeine wears off, well, there's your crash. Modafinil, though, works differently. It engages pathways in your brain, dopamine, norepinephrine, histamine, orexin, to achieve energy and alertness for 10 to 12 hours. Modafinil was invented in the 1970s, and since then, it's been used by soldiers and astronauts and pilots and anyone in high-stakes situations for concentration and alertness. Visit Maud.com, that's Maud, M-O-D, Maud.com, for a free consultation, and you can get 10% off your first order, plus free shipping, with promo code PDB. That's promo code PDB at Maud.com. See the website for more important safety information, and of course, thanks very much to Maud for sponsoring the PDB. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a message for all you sports bettors out there. Now, it used to be that getting action on a game was relatively simple, but now, well, now there are almost too many choices, right? Traditional sports books can feel super cluttered, and prediction markets often look like a stock trading terminal rather than a sports app. That's why I strongly recommend, check out Underdog. That's right, Underdog is the number one sports prediction market app, built specifically for sports fans. You get fair peer-to-peer pricing on the stuff you already know. Spreads, money lines, totals, player picks, without feeling like you need a finance degree. You can stack your picks into parlays to win up to 10,000 times your money. Plus, it's available, in most states across the U.S. Now, you know this, there's honestly nothing like that feeling, between locking in your picks and then sweating out every single play in the game. Suddenly, every yard, every position, matters way more, even if it's not your team out there. And you play alongside millions of fans who have already won, get this, over two billion, that's with a B, two billion dollars. Download Underdog today, and get in on the action. New users can score $50 in bonus entries when you play $10. Underdog, go ahead. Unleash your dog. Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade. Terms apply. Promotion issued by affiliate. For fantasy contests, must be 18 or older, 19 or older in Alabama and Nebraska, 19 or older in Colorado for some games, 21 or older in Arizona and Virginia. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER. In New York, call the 24-7 HOPE line at 1-877-8-H-O-P-E-N-Y or text HOPE-N-Y. In today's Back of the Brief, earlier this week, we told you about a bizarre wave of cyberattacks across Europe. Hackers were breaking into the control systems for supermarket refrigerators and freezers, raising temperatures remotely, and forcing stores to throw away spoiled food. Well, now a similar attack has targeted something considerably more sensitive than the frozen food section, and that would be France's blood supply. French authorities say hackers accessed refrigeration controls at three facilities operated by the country's National Blood Service. The attacks took place overnight Sunday into Monday, targeting cold storage units containing plasma for transfusions, medicines, and other medical uses. According to published reports, the hackers tried unsuccessfully to push some settings from around minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit to as high as 230 degrees. Fortunately, the safeguards that are in place work. Automated monitoring systems detected the changes, technicians intervened, and medical supplies were moved to unaffected storage units where necessary. France's blood service says no blood products or biological samples were lost, and collection and distribution continued without interruption. Now, what's particularly concerning is how the attackers reportedly got in. Investigators believe they accessed the controls through an outside refrigeration supplier, rather than directly breaching the blood service's main computer system. That illustrates a vulnerability facing hospitals and retailers and other facilities. Even when their own networks are protected, equipment maintained remotely by outside companies or vendors can provide another route for attackers. The supermarket attacks that we discussed previously on the PDB affected stores in several European countries. In some cases, hackers switched refrigeration equipment into defrost mode or raised temperature settings until food had to be discarded. Similar incidents were reported in France weeks before. Authorities are investigating whether the attacks are connected, but so far, no one has established who is responsible. There's also no verified evidence linking the incidents to Russia or China or Iran or any other hostile state actor. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the 5th of November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And finally, if you find yourself with a few minutes of free time, you'll check out our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. If you like what you see, well, maybe hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Thank you.