November 13th, 2026: Trump Makes a Major Shift in His Iran War Strategy  & Black Sea Shipping Attacks

It's Friday the 13th of November. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Look at that Friday the 13th. Now, I am not particularly superstitious, but if you are, well, take care today. Also, how about dropping me a line to tell us about your strangest superstition? What is your honest superstition that you hold on to? Just send us a note at [email protected]. And before we start, let's take a quick look at the Jensen Huang extramarital affairs scoreboard. As of yesterday afternoon, the running tally was one alleged Chinese intelligence asset and two Nvidia employees. Huang, of course, has resigned as Nvidia CEO and I suspect that the tech world will learn that no one is indispensable. All right, let's get briefed. First up, President Trump backs away from peace talks with Iran, betting that prolonged economic pressure will force tech Iran to make concessions without another major military offensive. Of course, the Iranian regime leadership did mention just the other day that there were no negotiations currently between the US and Iran. So we are backing away from non-existent negotiations. Later in the show, the world's deadliest shipping route turns out not to be the straight of Hormuz. It's the black sea where hundreds of attacks are taking a deadly toll on commercial vessels. Plus, thousands of schools across Europe are hit with bomb threats, as authorities investigate a wave of hoaxes disrupting daily life across the continent. This follows a recent spade of bomb threats directed at airlines in Europe. And in today's back of the brief, Ukraine says renewed disruption to its American satellite communications network or be crippling critical drone operations. But SpaceX denies making any changes. First up, today's PDB spotlight. It's been a whirlwind week for the Trump administration's Iran policy with the White House moving from the possibility of renewed military strikes to potential peace negotiations and now to a strategy of prolonged economic warfare. Although to be fair, the entire conflict has been marked by on-again off-again negotiations and on-again off-again military strikes. On Thursday, President Trump was declaring that America no longer needed a peace agreement with Tehran, effectively pulling the plug on a diplomatic effort that Vice President Shady Vance had been preparing to lead. According to the Wall Street Journal, Vance had been exploring direct negotiations with Mosin Rzai, the former revolutionary guard corps commander, IRGC commander, who now heads Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The Vice President had already reached out to Rzai, who by the way has lots of blood on his hands, and American and Middle Eastern officials were discussing a possible meeting and cutter. Trump had reportedly authorized Vance to pursue those negotiations, although no meeting had been scheduled. The objective was to divide a settlement of sorts that could end the conflict, reopen the state of Hormuz, and impose restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, at least that was the wish list. But Tehran was demanding substantial concessions before negotiations could even begin. Those included lifting the American naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described those conditions or demands as unrealistic, and while Vance was exploring a diplomatic opening, other senior administration officials were making the case that Washington should simply continue applying economic pressure, which brings us to Tuesday. According to Axios, Rubio met with his G7 counterparts in Paris, and explained that Trump had been considering three approaches to Iran. The first was to resume major military operations. The second was to negotiate a settlement of some sort, and the third was to maintain the naval blockade, expand sanctions, and continue squeezing the Iranian economy without committing to either another major offensive or a peace settlement. Rubio told the foreign ministers that Trump had selected the third option. According to the report, Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, CIA Director John Radcliffe, and Jared Kushner had all advocated for that approach. Their argument was that American economic pressure was already doing considerable damage to Iran. And there was no reason to rush into another military confrontation, or accept an unfavorable deal. In fact, the administration is preparing to tighten that pressure further. Rubio outlined the new operation. Does it have a name? Of course it does. It's not an operation without a cool name. It's called Irongate, which we reported on earlier this week. That operation is intended to restrict the land routes that Iran uses to obtain advanced weapons, technology, and to bypass sanctions. Irangate builds on Treasury's existing operation known as Economic Outcast, which has targeted Iran's banking relationships, oil revenues, transportation networks, and sanctions evasion operations. And according to an internal Treasury assessment, obtained by Axios last month, the campaign has been taking a considerable toll. The report said Iran's currency had lost roughly a quarter of its value since August, while annual inflation had reached 90% that's 90%. Treasury also claimed that Iran had been unable to load oil into tankers since late August, depriving the government, of course, of a critical, their most important source of revenue. Those are the administration's assessments, and they do help explain the thinking behind its strategy. Washington believes that the long of the economic pressure continues, the more difficult it becomes for Tehran to finance its military, rebuild damaged infrastructure, pay its security forces, that's an important one, and sustain the government itself. And then came Thursday of this week when Trump appeared to close the door on JD Vance's latest diplomatic initiative. In a post on Truth Social, the president declared quote, "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," end quote. He added that "America controlled Iran's money and the state of Hormuz announced that he wanted Vance concentrating on investigations into alleged crime and corruption in democratic-led American cities and states." The statement raised questions about whether Washington was abandoning negotiations altogether. An administration official subsequently indicated that Vance remains involved in Iran policy and could return to negotiations if circumstances change, and what's the likelihood of that. So diplomacy hasn't necessarily been ruled out permanently, but for the moment, the administration appears content to maintain the economic pressure and wait for the Iranian regime to reconsider its position. Of course, there is a major risk to that calculation. Damaging Iran's economy doesn't necessarily mean that its leadership is going to surrender. The regime has endured decades of sanctions, of course, and its security establishment may conclude that making major concessions to the US would threaten its survival more than continued economic hardship. And the senior leadership and IRGC personnel, they're also more than happy to pass the economic hardship down to the Iranian people. Iran also retains the ability to attack regional targets and disrupt commercial shipping, as we've seen, even after amounts of damage to its conventional military forces. And the consequences of the confrontation are not confined to Iran. American consumers are still dealing with elevated energy prices, while Gulf governments worry that an increasingly desperate Iran could lash out against their critical infrastructure. There's also the political dimension. The last week's midterm elections, that was quite a beating, delivered major Republican losses, with vans himself acknowledging that the war had contributed to the party's defeat. And that creates a difficult situation for the White House. Trump now appears to be betting that continued economic pressure will eventually accomplish what months of military operations and diplomacy, such as it has been, have not. The question is, how long that could take? And what happens? If a Iran's leadership decides, it has more to gain by escalating the confrontation than by giving Washington the concessions that it wants. All right, coming up next, the Black Sea becomes the world's deadliest shipping route, and thousands of schools across Europe are hit with bomb threats. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now, everybody's been talking about weight loss injections, right? Because the, well, the results are so dramatic. They work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite. But what if you're looking to lose weight and you're not interested in painful weekly injections, especially when you hear about some of those side effects? Well, that's why doctors created a weight loss supplement called lean, that's L-E-A-N lean, and the results are remarkable. The studied ingredients in lean have been shown to lower your blood sugar, burn fat by converting it into energy, and curb your appetite and cravings. So you're not as hungry, it's as simple as that. But listen, lean is not for the casual dieter with only a few pounds to lose. The doctors at Brickhouse Nutrition created lean for frustrated dieters with 10 or more pounds to lose. Let's get you started with 20% off and free rush shipping, so you can add lean to your healthy diet and exercise plan. Visit TakeLean.com and enter PDB for your discount. Once again, that's promo code [email protected]. Welcome back to the PDB. With all the attention on the Strait of Hormuz, you'd be forgiven for thinking that it's the most dangerous shipping route in the world. But according to a new investigation by the Wall Street Journal, that dubious distinction now belongs to the Black Sea, where hundreds of attacks have killed dozens of sailors and increasingly threatened commercial vessels operating near NATO territory. And the situation is getting worse. According to Maritime Security firm Ambrie, more than 300 attacks have been reported in the Black Sea this year. Those incidents have killed more than 30 sailors and left another 20 missing. For comparison, approximately 130 attacks have been reported in the Strait of Hormuz, and the wider Middle East since the war with Iran began in February, with a death toll of 25 sailors. The reporting periods are different, but the comparison of the straits just how dangerous the Black Sea has become. And much of that violence has intensified in recent weeks. On 5 October, a cargo ship called the Royade Mamadolf was struck near Romania while transporting corn from Ukraine to Italy. The vessel caught fire and sank, killing two crew members, 11 others were rescued. The following day, another cargo ship, the Alphawatan, was struck by a drone approximately 70 nautical miles off of Bulgaria. That vessel also sank, leaving 12 sailors missing. And on 13 October, another cargo ship sank near the Romanian Bulgarian border with 11 crew members reported missing. These are commercial vessels carrying ordinary cargo, and increasingly, they're becoming casualties of the war that Putin started and continues against Ukraine. For much of the conflict, the fighting at sea was concentrated around Ukrainian ports and Russian naval facilities. Moscow targeted ships carrying Ukrainian agricultural exports, while Kiev used drones to attack Russian warships, ports, and commercial shipping. But as merchant vessels began avoiding the most dangerous areas, well, the violence followed them. And in October, attacks increasingly reached the waters surrounding Romania and Bulgaria, both of course members of NATO. According to the journal, nearly half of the attacks on approximately a dozen vessels near those countries last month, left sailors dead, missing, or injured. Some European leaders have blamed Russia for the incidents, arguing that Moscow is attempting to disrupt Ukrainian trade and intimidate its neighbors. Russia denies responsibility, while there you go, and investigators have not conclusively established who carried out every attack. But the expanding violence is creating another serious security challenge for NATO. And we're already seeing the alliance respond. Last month, NATO began reinforcing surveillance operations in the Black Sea, deploying additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, and other equipment. France has extended the deployment of a military surveillance aircraft, operating from Romania. And that aircraft reportedly detected three maritime drones approaching a commercial vessel in late October, giving authorities enough warning to alert the crew before the ship was struck and sank. Those sailors escaped, but the incident also exposed a limitation. The French aircraft could detect the approaching drones, but it couldn't destroy them. European governments now pursuing additional measures. Earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Dan announced 50 million euros in funding to accelerate construction of a Black Sea Maritime Security Hub. The facility, jointly coordinated by Romania and Bulgaria, would improve surveillance, intelligence sharing, and protection of critical maritime infrastructure. The European Union hopes to have it operational by next year. But for commercial shipping companies, the immediate problem remains. The journal reports that traffic entering the Black Sea through Turkey's boss for a straight fell 41% in October, compared with the same month last year. Total transits in both directions declined by 38%. Ships that continue operating in the region are increasingly hugging coastlines in an effort to avoid areas where drones and other weapons pose the greatest threat. And the consequences extend far beyond the Black Sea. Ukraine remains a major supplier of agricultural products to international markets, particularly countries in Africa and the Middle East. Disruptions to those shipments can affect food supplies, increased transportation costs, and place additional pressure on economies, already struggling with high energy prices. And as Washington attempts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, the maritime conflict is increasingly threatening commercial traffic near NATO territory. For now, the alliance is responding with surveillance and intelligence gathering and additional security coordination. But with attacks continuing to spread, NATO faces the challenge of protecting maritime traffic without becoming directly involved in the fighting. Okay, I want to shift now to a wave of bomb threats rattling Europe. Schools, planes, newsrooms, they're all being targeted, and while authorities say the alerts so far have been hoaxes, the fear and disruption is real. The latest scare unfolded Wednesday when threatening emails reached roughly 6,300 Italian schools. Hundreds evacuated with teachers taking students to designated safe areas, while parents dropped what they were doing to collect their children. Schools in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland received similar emails, but there authorities assessed the messages as hoaxes and classes continued. By then, Europe had already seen what these threats could do to air travel. Earlier this month, as we reported, warnings against several European airlines disrupted dozens of flights and forced emergency landings. In some cases, military jets were deployed to escort the commercial aircraft. Officials said no explosives were found aboard any of the affected planes. One email sent to the operator of Rome's two commercial airports gives you a "sense" of the language being used. Written with the subject line "threat notification", it claimed to come from quote "fighters of the male M-A-L-E state" and threatened to turn the skies red with explosions. Then there are the recent threats against newsrooms. Media offices in Ireland, Bulgaria and other European countries received bomb warnings that prompted evacuations. Again, those threats were eventually deemed hoaxes. But the email sent to Bulgaria's NOVA news organization went further, also claiming responsibility for the airline threats. Now, Irish officials said Friday that the incidents appeared likely to be part of a coordinated campaign of disruption. Well, yeah, that does seem to be a logical conclusion. But there's no indication yet whether the campaign originated with one person, an organized group, or multiple independent actors and copycats. What does appear clear? Is how little effort it took to reach thousands of schools? A national security source in Italy told Reuters that school email addresses are "public" making the process "as easy as drinking a glass of water". There's also the timing in Ireland to consider. The country, where a news organization's in the National Carrier, Erlingus received threats, is hosting European and global leaders this week. Whether those gatherings have anything to do with the threats, well, that remains unknown. So, how do you keep people safe without letting a hoax shut everything down? Well, that's a very good question I'm glad you asked. Police in Scotland said its cyber and fraud unit is busy infestigating. Well, that's good. Britain's transport secretary said that authorities were taking the "malicious hoax threats" seriously, even though they were not believed to be credible. In Italy, the disruption is prompted to change in how authorities handle evacuations. The government announced the public buildings receiving these alerts should not empty out, quote, "unless there's concrete evidence other than a simple mass email". The bomb scares are also unfolding against a backdrop of cyber attacks on everyday services across Europe. You'll recall how supermarket refrigeration systems have been affected in France, Ireland, Sweden, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Earlier this month, French authorities set a cyber attack and also targeted blood banks by raising temperatures and storage refrigerators. Right now, there's no established link between the attacks on the refrigeration systems and the series of bomb threats directed at the airlines and schools and other infrastructure. But those attacks help explain the wider concern across Europe. France has accused Iran of orchestrating the October attacks on French supermarkets. Tafran rejected the accusation as, quote, "baseless and hostile". Well, and when has the Iranian regime ever been less than truthful? As for the bomb threats, some European officials suspect Russia may be behind the campaign to disrupt daily life in countries that are supporting Ukraine. Moscow denies that and calls the accusations a Western smear campaign. Well, likewise, when has the Kremlin ever been less than truthful? Coming up in the back of the brief, in Ukraine claims new restrictions on its internet satellite service are undermining its drone defenses as questions mount over what or who is causing the disruptions. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I've been a business owner for many years, and I want to take just a moment to talk to all you small business operators out there. Look, here's the thing, running any small business, you know, this means dealing with constant, unexpected expenses, right? Whether it's upgrading an IT system, repair costs, or managing payroll, there's always something, and you cannot afford to let traditional bank red tape slow your momentum. 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Now, that's the best offer you're going to hear from me all year. Visit wildgrain.com/PDB40 to get $40 off your first box and free croissants for life. We'll use promo code PDB40 at checkout. Again, that's wildgrain.com/PDB40 or use PDB40 at checkout. In today's back of the brief, Ukrainian drones are hitting a familiar speed limit, and Keeve wants answers. The problem again involves Starsheel. That's the military version of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service. Ukraine says drones relying on that connection are once again losing it once they fly faster than 100 miles an hour. Ukrainian President Zeletsky raised the issue on Telegram after meeting with Ukrainian military commanders. He posted, quote, "Our units have for several days now been experiencing significant disruptions in the operation of Starsheel." Several Ukrainian frontline units confirmed that they could not operate the affected drones beyond that speed. Zeletsky referred to it as a "systemic speed restriction." But SpaceX claims there's been no change to their service. So Ukrainian troops are reporting a limit that they can't get passed, while the company providing the connection says, "Nh, nothing's changed." That naturally leaves Keeve looking for an explanation, with its forces already feeling the consequences. Some of Ukraine's interceptor drones need to fly faster than 100 miles an hour in order to catch the jet-powered Russian drones that are attacking its cities and infrastructure. If the connection drops when they cross that threshold, over 100 miles an hour, part of Ukraine's air defenses effectively stops working. Zeletsky said the disruptions stretch along the entire frontline, an inter-russian occupied territory. That threatens Ukraine's crucial mid-range drone campaign against Russian supply routes, where they worked at pit troops and ammunition and other supplies before they can reach the front. Those strikes have, in part, helped hold Moscow's forces to minimal territorial gains this year. Ukrainian military officials warned that a prolonged interruption with Starsheel could make it easier for Russia to move reinforcements and munitions, potentially allowing its forces to resume larger advances. Now, this is a problem Ukrainian forces have encountered before. For 10 days in October, they faced the same 100-mile-an-hour speed cap. At the time, tensions between Keeve and the White House were running high. President Trump, at the time, was demanding Zelensky's removal, at the end the Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, which he blamed for high diesel prices in the U.S. ahead of the mid-term elections. The Wall Street Journal reported the SpaceX founder Elon Musk ordered those restrictions. The decision sparked alarm and Keeve and even backlash from some U.S. lawmakers, Musk denied that he had unilaterally ordered the restrictions. According to the White House, Trump then called Musk and asked him to lift the caps. As with the first disruption, it's not clear who's responsible for the current speed restrictions. Ukraine this week unleashed a large-scale drone assault on Russia's oil sector, disrupting production. But there is no indication that the White House ordered the speed restrictions as a show of displeasure that Ukraine is continuing its assault on Russian energy infrastructure. The White House, of course, has been pressuring Zelensky to seize the attacks in an effort to stabilize global energy markets and lower prices. Ukraine did pause their attacks for a couple weeks, but resumed after Russia continued to hammer Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on a daily basis. Two senior Ukrainian government officials said they did not know who had ordered the renewed limit. Zelensky said Keeve was seeking clarification from the U.S. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday the 13th of November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at [email protected]. And remember, in honor of Friday the 13th, drop us a line and tell us about your strangest or oddest superstition. Finally, tune in this evening at 10pm on the first TV for a brand new episode of our extended weekend show the pdb's situation report. As the kids say these days, it's a humdinger. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel, just go to YouTube oddly enough, and search up at President's Daily Brief. And you can also find it on podcast platforms throughout podcast land. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the pdb afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.