Welcome to the On the Tape Podcast. I'm your host Danny Moses and today I am thrilled to welcome Nicole Kagan, head of research at Calche to the pod. As most of you know, Calche is a sponsor of the On the Tape Podcast in every week. I give out a few event contracts that I'm looking at and trading. Well, if you're wondering how those contracts end up on Calche's platform, look no further than my guests today. Nicole, welcome to On the Tape. Thank you so much for having me, Danny. All right, let's start with your background. It's pretty impressive. And what led you to jump from Bridgewater to Calche to start the research? Well, first of all, that's very nice. By way of brief background, so when to college in the States, graduated. First job out of college was at Bridgewater Associates. So I was a macro investor there. I worked on short rates. So trying to figure out, you know, how the central bank was going to set interest rates and where they would be in three months, six months, nine months, a year. And I worked mostly on emerging markets and then I moved to work more and developed markets. But in my time in emerging markets, I think the thing you quite quickly realize is that the central bank of many countries is just not independent of the government. And so, you know, we're in a situation this was a few years ago where, you know, in Turkey, we were focusing on where the short rate path would be, inflation was 85% and interest rates, I think, at the time were like 8%. They were very, very low and way too low to control the inflation crisis that they were having at the time. And so we're all sitting around and we were like, well, we have a view on whether or one's going to win the next election. But what Erdogan is going to tell the central bank to do, we don't have any of you on. We're not sure if he's going to keep rates depressed. If he's going to raise them to 30% tomorrow, we have no real insight into that. And so what we'd like to take a position on is whether or not he's going to win. But you couldn't at the time take that direct position. You had to take it through a set of proxies. And so I always had this question in my mind, well, why can't you just take the direct position that you want to hedge out or that you have a view on? Why do you have to do it in such a complicated, such a proxied and such an expensive way where actually in eventuality, you're subject to a lot of the market noise. I left Bridgewater after some time there, I thought I was going to become a professor in economics. I went to Oxford, I did all the PhD coursework and then I decided, actually, I really quite like this idea of being back in the real world. And at the time that I was deciding to leave, Oxford, the opportunity came up at Cal State to come on board and work on writing the contracts. So actually, you know, the event contracts that underlie the rules for all of our markets. And I was like, wow, that's actually very interesting because this idea that I've been sitting on for years now seems to be coming to life. And I would love to be a part of that. And so that's how I ended up at Cal State. And then a few months after I joined, we started our research function, which I'm really privileged, I think, to be able to lead now. That's perfect timing. So let's talk about the process for the rules writing, the certification, and the process for idea generation, maybe comes from a client, maybe it comes in-house, how that kind of works. So we actually source ideas from kind of here there and everywhere is how I would put it. So we have suggestions coming through internally and then suggestions that we source externally. So internally, we have a team that's effectively, I would say, for better or for worse, chronically online. And they're constantly looking through the relevant happenings in the world. They're constantly recommending things to our markets team that they would be interested in listing. And that's coming from both our team, but also our partners that are also recommending contracts to us for things that they would like to focus on or to spotlight or to feature that they think that we don't currently have. And then externally, we're sourcing recommendations from users through our discord server, through our ideas page and channel. And then also just more broadly by observing what's happening in the world around us. And so let's say we give an idea the next step in trying to unpack that idea is figuring out, is this an idea that is serviceable by the platform? Does it make sense for us to have a contract on it? So if someone says, you know, what will inflation be in Australia next month, that's an example of a contract that we could put up. But an example of a contract that we can't put up is something like, you know, will my wife leave me? I don't know if you're that person is, I don't know if it's relevant for. And so for every idea that we have, we have to think through, you know, is there a resolution source for this that is objective that we can cite? Is there an economic justification that we can raise for having a contract like this and a hedging utility that somebody who was participant in the market could reasonably perform using this contract? And so then we bifurcate, we either already have the contract and we have about 2700 certifications already filed with the CFTC. And so we already have a pretty broad base of contracts that we're able to reference and substitute out variables in. So we might have a contract that is, you know, what is the value of econstat in time period? And we'll switch out value and, you know, what the statistic is. So here, inflation in Australia and the time period. So let's say next month, let's say September, and then we'll launch that market. If we don't already have the contract, those rules get written and rewritten and rewritten and rewritten. They get valid back and forth through multiple rounds of review. And then they get submitted for self-certification with the CFTC, who holds it for a certain period of time before we're able to list that market. So if there's a contract that we're to expire in September, let's say you put that date on it. And then you want to create one for October, do you have to go back through the process? You just substitute October and it's already pre-approved. Just so I have to get approved again. No, we usually just substitute out the variables. And when you're looking at these contracts, I would imagine for the most part, you obviously want volume. And so when you see something that doesn't trade or you're not using the supporting research that sometimes you push out or it's just not catching on, you kind of just let it expire, cut it, never come back to it again or you try to figure out why didn't that contract catch fire. And I know volumes, obviously, the most important thing, but sometimes you just want it out there as an information source also, which we're going to get to as well. Yeah, I mean, I think that price discovery is really becoming a dominant consideration for us, whether or not the contracts end up attracting a lot of volume because sometimes, you know, you know, this through participating in the market, like sometimes you can be right, but at the wrong time. So you can have really high conviction that something will do well, maybe as a market. So for instance, that commodity markets might do really well, but in fact, they might not do well until there's something really important that happens in the world that affects commodity markets. Or maybe they won't do well until people notice that there are commodity markets on your platform or until you hit a certain base of users or a certain exchange volume. And so for every contract that we list, we will then look at the volume and the performance of those contracts and we'll think, why do we feel like it didn't meet the expectations that we had? Is there something structural about the way that the rules were written that we could make better? Is it something about the way the market was described? How it was highlighted or presented to users? Is it the case that actually, you know, this seems like a standalone market and people would like to see a big ecosystem of markets around something. So for instance, compute pricing exists in an ecosystem that is much broader and concerns many different elements of AI and tech and technological development that's happening now. Having just one isolated market on the price of say a given chip is probably not what people are looking for, but having the ability to price out forward curves, the ability to construct all this multifaceted information source around the development of those technologies tends to be more relevant to people. So to answer your question more directly, we don't ever write off contracts and just throw them in the van. We always try to assess how we can do better. And then ultimately, for us, listing a contract is not particularly costly. We can list many contracts. We have over 8,000 of us live on the platform now at any given time. And so we can leave a market up, even if it isn't doing significant volume, just because we think that it's interesting to have it up there. Right. So do you need to check with the market makers before who that one is going to go to? So if you have multiple market makers and you go to, you know, apply for certification with the CFTC and it gets approved, do you already know which market maker that it's going to go to? Is that part of the process also before you was kind of assigned it? No, not on the contract side. I mean, we, so all contracts that we have are actually self-certified with the CFTC, we're a self-regulating organization. And so the way that that process works is we submit it by certain deadline, it gets held for a set number of hours and then it gets released. So it's not like the CFTC is formally approving anything. It doesn't stamp off, but it can of course tell us not to lose something it can ask us to take things down. But no, I mean, we're not reaching out to our big market makers and saying like, who's going to make this specific market? The contract will go live and then there will be market maker interest that comes naturally or perhaps that we'll need to push on to get the initial liquidity seated. All right. We're going to get to the compute example because the amount of research that you and your team have done is unreal. And I tell people always even during the show, you don't have to trade on cows if you don't want to, but if you're not using the information, you're really short, short changing yourself. So you had a research conference this past spring, kind of the coming out party for kind of what you guys are doing there. Obviously, it's going to be much bigger. Next, you're talking about that a little bit, what the feedback was from it and what it's going to look like in the future. I mean, it was absolutely phenomenal. So we hosted the first industry prediction markets conference by a real money exchange back in March of this year. And it was an enormous event actually. We weren't sure of people were going to want to come. We ended up with a room so packed that people were standing at the back we ran out of seating. And we far exceeded capacity, which was so encouraging and really exciting. We had a lot of institutional interest. We had great institutional panels and broadly speaking, the day range from academics speaking through their research right up to, you know, in the frontier of that research, but also living in sports leagues to talk about how they're thinking about their positioning around prediction markets as they become, you know, a nascent and relevant field for them. And ranging right through to your traditional institutional players like your Goldman Sachs or your AQR to think about how they're approaching participating in prediction markets. And I think one thing really resonated with me from the day. And it was something that TARC our co-founder actually said, which is, you know, next year there will be many more people wearing suits in this room.
And I think that's exactly right. You know, like we held this conference three and a half months after starting our research division. And so at the time, we were like, okay, well, who are we going to get to present research as a research even exists for anybody else to present? Because as you would remember, a lot of the prediction of markets literature is by this point kind of two decades old. And so there were people that were working on these problems in the 2000s, in the 1980s, 1990s, and then they were kind of left to the side for a long, long time because you didn't have these real money exchanges, transacting significant volume. But now you do. And so for our next conference, one thing we're really excited about is there's just so much more research that's been done. There's so much more institutional participation that's been done. There are so many more interesting cases of institutions hedging idiosyncratic risk. Like we had one last week. There were some goat farmers somewhere, I think in California, that were subject to, I don't know how much you've heard about this, but it's so interesting. I actually think it's the best hedging use case I've ever seen. They basically have exposure to this law in California that requires them to raise minimum wage. So instead of paying their goat herders, I don't know, $4,000 a month, they would now need to pay them $240,000 a year. And a lot of them have gone, okay, well, we're gonna need to go and kill all of our goats because we just kind of for this. And so they've come to Cal State and they've gone, we need to hedge the risk that they don't change this law. 'Cause if they don't change this law, I'm gonna lose my entire livelihood. And I've been operating this business for a very long time. And so even kind of as a tarot things that are part of a traditional ecosystem that we don't really think about, like vegetation management become relevant to platforms like Cal State. I think we'll see many more of those cases in the lead up to next year's conference. - Goat cheese. Well, around the same exact time, you, I think it was the Federal Reserve issue to report that said that your contracts were more accurate as related to inflation. I think that poor came out around the same time. Talk about that a little bit. And 'cause that was kind of a taking off point. And then I wanna talk about the research that was around the FOMC meeting last week and how you were showing leading up to the meeting that your odds were probably more accurate, obviously than the other futures that were out there. - Yeah, exactly right. So a little bit of background on the Fed paper. So, you know, it's something I always think is funny because our first paper from Cal State research that we put out I think in December of last year was we're actually better at forecasting inflation than consensus. And at the time, you know, a lot of people dismissed that. They were like, well, of course, Cal State research says Cal State is good at predicting things kind of the whole point of the platform. And then a month or two later, January February, some researchers at the Federal Reserve came out and they said the exact same thing. They said, actually, no, that's true. Cal State has never been wrong on Fed funds and not only has it not been wrong, but we know that it's materially better and certainly not worse than Bloomberg consensus on calling inflation. And that was a huge point of inflection for us because I think when researchers at the Fed say something, people listen, you know, and you couldn't ask for a better peer reviewer than researchers there. And so their work showed something really interesting. And I think the most interesting thing that they showed was not necessarily even that we outperformed traditional macroeconomic systems that would price inflation via consensus, which is interesting because, of course, a lot of large funds rely on that information as an input to the signals that they're building into their trading systems. But also that it's a continuously updating and distributionally rich signal. That you can now see what the coin of uncertainty is around outcomes, which is arguably even more important. Outside of looking at a static print that says, we think that inflation's going to be 3.6 and that's a point in time estimate, you now see things happen in the world and a lot has happened in the world this year that has changed the landscape for inflation projections. Exactly how that coin of uncertainty is expanding or contracting. So is it the case that people think that there is asymmetric upside risk? How is that being priced into markets? How is that changing through times? What kinds of news outlets even are people looking at to get that information about how they should be thinking through inflation or gas prices or whatever else? And that's for signals that already have financial corollaries, but of course there are others that don't, right? Like unemployment, for instance, has no natural financial market corollary that is constantly moving. And so it actually is filling in a gap in traditional financial markets that you've never really been able to fill before. So that's what they've said there. On the most recent FOMC meeting, so we had actually recorded significant diverges from our August Fed funds futures. And so August Fed funds futures, of course, for those who don't know. And I assume that maybe every podcast is made that you have noticed, but maybe some don't. The way that futures are calculated in pricing is a little bit unusual. They take kind of like an average rate for the month, which means that you can take the rate between two meetings to get out what the rate will be set out after, say, the July meeting. If you just look at the August futures. So what we found is there was a 20% to point divergence between our pricing of a high probability, which was around 18% and their pricing, which is around 36 to 38%. And so there was significantly more uncertainty priced into the CME Fed funds futures. And of course, also a high degree of error to the Fed funds futures when, in fact, the FOMC meeting came out with a hold. And this was really interesting because basically what that implied was, you could take almost a cheaper position on this on CalChi, rather than using traditional Fed funds futures instruments, you could just trade the same thing on CalChi. And we saw some organizations did. I think there was a $600,000 block trade actually that printed on this FOMC decision as well. - Yeah, and I was partaking in that one because I had given out on June 23rd following a Worsh's first meeting where there were zero board members that descended and they held rates, which was expected. And I got that part wrong about there being zero people dissenting. I said, well, there's definitely gonna be more than one to center. More than zero to centers, they wanted to show solidarity. And I thought the Fed would keep rates unchanged again. And that was 34 cents or so. And so I was tracking that and then I obviously paid off at a dollar. So that was one thing that I was using. But I think what's really interesting is not just that, all the data. So when you go on to the CalChi research site or even on the CalChi contracts themselves and people don't know this, right below it, there are links to articles or information that's institutional grade and where you can pull from and/or your guys own research, which you do leading up to it. So I find that really interesting 'cause it's one stop shopping, obviously, for people to go to. So I think this is-- Exactly right. I mean, every Monday we've now started putting out an institutional research release space exciting, Zaju Tuesday. So today, the day that we're recording this and we've got a preview live at our institutional research page right now, calchi.com/researchs/insides. And so I think that there's something really interesting about that because-- And with Fed funds futures too, because you can actually now corroborate two different sources of information and wonder why they're diverging so significantly. And then as you said, and one thing that I think is particularly interesting is you can take more granular positions, right? So even outside of what you think the rate's going to be, you can play that off against the rate next month, but you can also do things like drill down into how many people will dissent who is going to dissent. And those are also materially important pieces of information that investors do have significant risk exposure to right now. For sure. And then for space excs, I'll just get this out of the way since everyone knows that I had been sure to cover, obviously, into earnings. But the number one mention on there, I look today because I want to see-- because I knew this is going to be-- we're going to the moon. We're going to Mars. The cursor acquisition is very creative. Those are the top three things. So it tells me exactly 91%, 90%, 89%, they're probably what's going to come, which is helpful to think about because you're going to know what they're going to be talking about. And whether you have a position in the name or not, it kind of gives you a preview in what the market's telling you. We talked briefly about some institutional examples. Talk more about this. I think I know of three or four trades that have gone up. Talk about how that were to kind of come out-- not come out of the blue, but how will it originate? So let's say I'm running a fund-- hedge fund-- to Billion Dollar Fund, I want to put 25 million to work to protect a certain sector that I've exposure to, whether it's insurance, sector property, casual insurance, and I'm worried about hurricanes. And I want to come and I said, all right, I email you or I email the team or a broker, whoever has an in-- she gets a couch and I said, can you create me a contract that a cat for a cat-five hurricane will make landfall in the state of Florida from the months of August through October? Just what a-- talk me through that and how that would go about and happen. Yeah, so let's imagine that you have specific risk exposure that isn't already addressed by a contract that we have live on the platform, right? So let's say that this is distinct from the company that had $600,000 on the Fed decision. So let's say you have a hurricane risk, but you want a hedge, we don't have a market up. You come to us, you say, listen, this is the risk that I have. This is what I'm trying to hedge out. This is how much-- how many contracts I want to move. But more importantly, here is the set of rules that I think would be important to govern this contract, because of course, the most important consideration when we're writing rules is not necessarily writing when they will go yes or go no, but to think about all the edge cases that are associated with a contract-resolving yes or no, right? And this becomes really important, even in standard situations. So you would remember late last year, there was just no CPI print that came out, right? Which we had to deal with, of course, because we had markets on what the CPI print would be that month, right? And this year, of course, the year over year CPI print is also going to be affected by the fact that there was no publication that happened. And so you have to think about these cases in advance, like are there other formulas that you can fall back to? In these cases, do you hold for additional reporting if you think that there's an error, and these are address both in the comments.
contract rules and then also an Eric's student rule book. So for a hurricane, for instance, you know, what happens if there's a revision that happens immediately? What happens if that revision comes three months later? What happens if they just print the wrong number? What happens if they discontinue reporting? These are all important edge cases to consider. So we'll talk through what the requirements are. And then usually the party that wants to hedge a given risk will come with a counterparty to that trade. So they'll come and say, "A market maker and they'll do one of two things." They'll either already have agreed on a price to transact at. So they'll say, you know, the market maker is giving me price in its 65 cents. So this is like that it happened or trade, you know, OTC effectively, but on exchange with this contract that you have on your platform that is open both to us and the public, of course, simultaneously. Or they can say, "What we want to do is we want some price discovery to happen." Right? So we actually, we have no idea what the likelihood of a hurricane is and we think that your trade is probably decently good at pricing it. Let's let it sit live on the platform for a day, two days, five weeks a month, figure out what the pricing should be, and then we'll transact at that pricing on block off exchange. And so it can happen in those one of two ways, but that's typically the flow when people come into hedge. They don't necessarily already need to have a counterparty ready. We do have counterparty that have said that they're willing to stand up kind of eke figures for most anything. And that's growing through time, of course, because liquidity gets liquidity and as the platform grows, the flywheel goes faster and faster and so you're more likely to be able to close these transactions as well. I would think with firms like Goldman Sachs, let's say that was my prime broker that was for the fund. I would go to the, my salesperson at Goldman and say, "Hey, can you do some digging on this for me?" That's what I would probably do and he could go to the market maker. He could go to his desk and say, "You know, are we going to, we want to put up this other side potentially and create this contract because you don't want it sitting there. You want it sitting there for price discovery, but the size that I would be looking to put on as a fund manager is much higher than you may only get $10,000, $15,000 trading. So I would think you want to, I would put the trade up with 25 million having interacted. Then you have a contract that obviously is very deep and liquid. Contrary to that. So I imagine there's all different ways to kind of get there, I would think, correct? Yeah, there are lots of different ways. I mean, there are firms that use structured products. For example, for this reason, we'll do that for their clients. I think the way that every FGM works is slightly different in that regard. And people that don't know, we were using OTC products. We were doing stuff, knock-ins, knock-outs, combos ourselves. If oil hits 100, will the S&P be down? So this has been going on for a, you know, long time. So some of this stuff you guys do as well, just to highlight research. There's one there's one thing I was looking at in particular. I was looking at it a few days ago before oil dropped back down here from 88 to 76, which was tracking the election midterm election outcome with the price of oil. And you had put up a chart. It literally is tracking Democrats chance of winning the House and Senate with the price oil moving higher. So it's really interesting. Maybe that makes a lot of sense. But I think that's not an event contract. That was just you putting together research that should make people think, well, if I think it's not going to happen or I know they need to do something about oil, which is obvious than they're doing now. And I'm sure that chart is now changing. Talk about that because that's the next level research. It doesn't necessarily have to do with a particular event contract that is on that chart. Obviously does with the election outcome, but talk about how you come up with something. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, for us, the really interesting thing about Cal State, the thing that I think is the coolest is that you can take out direct positions on any question. And so you can take out a direct position on whether you think the dance or win or the Republicans will win or what gas prices will be next week or whatever, right? And what's really cool about that is traditionally when you're trading public markets, as you know, they're contaminated constantly by noise. You know, there are lots of things that move equity prices, which means that you could be totally right on all the KPIs and then totally wrong on the direction of the stock price in in outcome, right? Because there are flows that you're not expecting that are going to change the direction of that. Say, with political outcomes, you might expect that an election might result a certain way. And then the S&P will move in a particular direction, but actually it doesn't because the market is looking through it or it's pricing other things or whatever else, right? And so as we're seeing those dynamics unfold, we can then go and pick out certain things. And so for that, we thought, well, what has been the overriding story that has kind of governed the news over the past X number of months? Well, it's the operation in Iran, right? It's everything that's happening in the Middle East and the crisis, quote unquote, that is unfolding there. And then the question is, well, what is the transmission mechanism for that? And the transmission mechanism for that, of course, is oil. And the transmission mechanism for oil, to most people, is gas prices, right? And so what we did is we kind of took our index, our political power index, the key power that we created, but also even our markets on the Democrats winning the House and the Senate, and we overlay these gas price charts where we just kind of threw them on through oil on just to see if there was any correlation that we can see. And as you can see, like they're basically pinned to each other, oil prices go up, people feel that at the pump, people feel that, you know, through their grocery prices, through other inflation that is feeding through, through cost push inflation. And then they're thinking about voting for someone else because we know that many people vote with their hip pocket. And so it's interesting that you can see that so tightly bound to election results. It's obviously not the only thing influencing mid-term outcomes, but it's definitely an important contributing factor from what we can say. All right, let's get to the hottest topic, which is AI, CapEx, cost of compute. You and your team have done incredible research there. And talk about that because, you know, it's really funny. So all the Wall Street firms, you know, 75 buy ratings on Nvidia, one whole, like obviously, you guys have no investment banking angle at all. So it's true research itself. And what I find interesting is the sources with which you're using, there's 25 sources in you guys are coming to your conclusion. I'm going to bring up the example if we can of kind of think it's the H200 and now I'm way out of my league here on this thing. How someone can use all of this mosaic that which you are providing. Again, whether you want to trade it or not, if people are referencing that number and looking at, you know, buy or sell decision on a stock or earnings in the future, they're doing themselves a disservice. So talk about that project itself because that's going to be with us for a long time. And it seems like a pretty intense undertaking. Yeah, so I'll talk to you through a little bit of the information value and then they just like research distributions and a little bit on compute specifically. So on the information value, you know, 75% of the people that come to CalCity.com don't trade. They just come to look and I think that that's really important because it says something about the information value of the markets that we have on our platform. And so from a research perspective, like I was bridgewater before I co-authored the daily observations that would go out to the big institutions, the central banks around the world kind of sat on this idea of like, well, why don't we just do this ourselves? Like, we have interesting markets. They say differentiated things about the way that, you know, we expect different companies and their strategies to unfold over, you know, the next X number of years. And I think one of the most relevant stories there, as you're talking about now is compute, right? I think all eyes are on compute right now. A big part of the SpaceX earnings discussion today will be around compute and data centers. And so I think that the big thing there is like, you know, you have these chips and you have incredible exposure to them if you're a company that is running a data center or maybe that is running through another company's data center because you're often leasing them hour by hour. My question is like, okay, well, what will my demand look like and what will my price exposure look like, you know, not today, but six months from now or a year from now? Because the reality is unlike other standard commodities markets like oil, right? Where you come to some agreed standard and some agreed price, semiconductors, chips, computer components are very different because they're often treated B2B. And so the price tends to be very opaque and very difficult to discover. And so what we're doing with bringing these compute future curves on our platform or forward curves on our platform is we're saying we're actually going to make this price discovery possible and highly visible for people so that they contract through time how the pricing is expected to evolve and in so doing manage their risk exposure, right? Makes certain decisions about the investments that they might be doing use it as an input to their decision making processes to think like, okay, we have constrained supply right now, but maybe we won't have that constrained supply six months from now or even, you know, at a broader level, I'm, you know, deeply invested in the video, but I think there's going to be a delay to the release of saying new viewer rubin chips or maybe I think that there's going to be a threat from China that's going to affect equity prices asymmetrically. So I should be aware of that. We surface all of those things for investors that currently have exposures. And even for people who don't, who are just broadly interested in the topic and the future of compute more broadly, I think our aim is to cater to kind of that very broad audience. Yeah, I mean, in the conclusion of some of the stuff, I'll just give you a quote more over the black wall to real rubin transition is a swing factor worth watching. You know, it talks about kind of the timing of a new chip and the old chip and the compute prices. So yeah, I actually, it's really, it's really, really interesting. All right, it's time for my calcium picks the week. I have Nicole with me. These are my picks, not in the calls, but she can see in real time kind of how I use these. And remember, when you are trading on calcium, you're trading with other users, some of the buying or selling a stock, you could jump in and out of your position at any time to lock in a profit or cut your losses. Just my opinions, not Nicole's not telling you what to trade or offering any investment advice. All right, last week, following the FOMC, we had the bank of Japan meet. They're in a very precarious position. I guess that was solidified by the fact that the US just bailed them out with swap lines so they can come in and support their currency. So any to sell US treasuries, that's a different episode for a different day. But when this first meeting ended or as a first meeting was going on for bank in Japan.
this last week, their next one is right after ours in September. And the B.O.J. rate decision for September was trading at roughly 25 or 26 cents ahead of their August meeting. I bought it then. They didn't do anything in August, which was a penny. But now that September contract is trading at roughly 46 to 47 cents. And I believe they're going to be forced to raise rates in September because we just lent them a helping hand. I think they come back. So this is an example Nicole of what I would track. And I'm not looking at the live futures market on this. But I imagine this is going to keep trading higher. And a lot of volume will come into this now that the news flow is now going into the bank of Japan. Yeah, I mean, I could imagine I think that there are a lot of interesting central bank decisions made last week. Of course, we had the Fed. Then we had the Bank of England. We also had I think made it the ECB potentially they hadn't already under the Bank of Japan. There is a little speculation around what the Bank of Japan is going to do. It looks like they've been doing some currency defense was recently, which may or may not indicate that they're going to make some kind of decision around rates going forward, but there are going to be a lot of eyes on the next B.O.J meeting for sure. Yeah, so I'd imagine the volume starts to creep up there. And the other thing I was looking at it has it's expiring this Friday again, you don't need to give an opinion on it. Just something that I'm watching is the end. Obviously, when it moves higher, it's weakening against the dollar. Will it be above 156.55 basically this Friday, it's trading at 38 cents. So we just came in and intervened in their currency. We'll probably keep intervening, but I think it might be short-lived. So I'm going to choose yes to above 156.55 on Friday. Currently, the last trade may be 52 cents, but the currently yes is trading at 38 cents. So that's something else I'm looking at. I wasn't trying to put you on the spot so you would give any type of advice on Japanese markets, but it is an example now where I think that type of market, B.O.J., you will see a lot of volume growth. You'll probably be able to create other contracts around it over time. What will they say, things like that? So again, you guys create where the news is kind of going. And I think that's an example of where volume begets volume. And I think people can really interested. And it has a massive impact on our markets here, what they're going to do in Japan. So just as an example. Yeah, that's exactly right. I think as a former macro investor, I love watching the central banks make decisions around the world. So it's a market I'm personally biased to watching more closely, but of course, can't give any advice on what I think is going to happen in the next few meetings. Right. So you're not, are you involved in the sports side of things as well from the certification yes, but not the origination idea? It's kind of known what the sports contracts are going to be. It's a question of just the process of getting them approved correct. I mean, I think that there's a pretty broad range of sports contracts that are possibly imaginable, right? So in some part, sometimes play role in the ideation mostly don't, but do play a role in the contract running for those. Yes. All right. We're lucky you're not on here during football season or I'd be going through litany of football. Please, please do not put me on the show for football season. Please. So let me just read the second disclaimer in the call. Since you would appreciate this is what we do. It's just like you have to put dislambers. Again, these picks are not financial advice. If you want to learn more, download the Calche app, read the rules and use promo code Moses to become eligible for a trading reward of up to $500 after you trade a total of $25 on Calche. I'll be back next week with another episode of On the Tape. Check out the what are we doing. Contrariums at the Gate Substack. I co-author with Vincent Daniel and Porter columns, which includes our Friday night dirty podcast as well. And tell me Nicole, I know that if we go on the Calche site, you can get to Calche Research. You guys have an ex-handle. You're on LinkedIn. Click through. What hell else can they reach? They can reach you. Obviously, I see you on both of those. You know, as well, what's the best way to get it through through the Calche website or the app? Yeah, Calche.com/research or email
[email protected]. If you have any ideas or suggestions per well, I put some of those through already. Now you're going to be sorry that I have a direct line now. Do you now? So we come up with great time. How do you block any malicious? Well, listen, keep up the great work. Nicole, I think this is a great product. I think it's underutilized not just, you know, not just as a trading source, but as an information source for all types of investors. And I think institutional investors are going to start to catch on to this. So good luck with everything and keep up the great work. Thanks so much, Danny. Thanks for listening to The On the Tape podcast with Danny Moses. If you like what you heard, please subscribe on either Apple or Spotify to the weekly podcast. And please leave a rating and review positive only. You can also watch on The On the Tape channel on YouTube and give us a thumbs up there as well.
PodcastTranscript AI