NHL DFS Strategy Thursday 10/1/26 | DraftKings & FanDuel Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks

(upbeat music) What is going on everybody and welcome to the first normal size slated the season of the Thursday, October 1st. How's it October already? We'll never know. But we are back for an eight games slated here tonight. We had three games last night. The Leafs won a game. You would think they're planning the parade. Take the closer look under the hood and that second line got absolutely steamroll last night. But that's, we're not here to talk about the Leafs because they suck. We have eight games on tap here tonight. A bunch of teams making their debuts tonight. We have Philly on a back to back after getting absolutely bombarded by the penguins last night. Some late night hammers you could say. The three biggest totals are late night here tonight. So this is a nice spread of games. Some watchable games. Some awful like Seattle Calgary. I'd rather watch paint dry. But you know, joining me to start the show is always some cliffy. What's going on? - Yeah, not a whole lot. Yeah, that was an interesting round of games last night 'cause Leafs went up early to nothing in the first period and then pretty much just coasted until late in the third when the Islanders made it to one game, but it finished to one, that was it. Penguins, I only watched the first period of the penguins game. It was to nothing when I changed it. And then I check later and it's like five, nothing or six, nothing or something like that. And it's like, it's not very good. And then notice that penguins would shot them something like 38, 19. Not a great start for the flyers. We'll talk about them a little bit. King's abs. Colorado scored four power play goals last night. We were talking before the show. Three of them came from the second power play unit. I think I saw on Twitter one of the beat writers, maybe he's Megan Angley saying the second power play, oh, Colorado only scored two power play goals last year when Nathan McKinnon on the ice. And one of them was in a game where he didn't even play. They already have three. So, pretty good start for the abs. But yeah, we have eight games here tonight before we get too far. Obviously, shout out to Bill Shortstop in the chat. $20 super chat. Thank you very much for the sport. Thanks for your generosity. Says he took down the energy line with an Edmonton stack and the Boston third line with Swaman. Swaman, obviously, got the shut out. Frazier Minden. The best to ever do it. People are asking. I'm saying it. Yeah, so congrats to him. Also, have to shut out Negus. Long time subscriber in the chat. He had to take down last night as well. Took down 5K over on draft Kings. He had McKinnon. He had the shut out from she loves. He had Nick Robertson. The second best to ever do it. He had a two goal game last night. His first game with the penguins, Arturie Leckinon had a two goal game as well. Neil Heinemann had that late short hand to goal up for the Islander. So congrats to Negus. Love to see long time supporter get one out of the way early. So, go on him. Hopefully we can get another winner or two in the chat here tonight. Yeah, I mean, the Leafs definitely could use a second line of Marner, Nies, and Nick Robertson right about now. But I just said I wasn't going to talk about the Leafs, but they're just too easy to have a target. Before we get into the slate, where we have to talk about my Rangers again, we do have a deal for you. It supports us directly. We are on a commission's base deal. We're very open about that. If you sign up at stochastic.com/pricing, you can get 10% off any subscription using promo code Pucklock. I had a tweet out today about NFL because there's obviously Thurston and NFL. But if you do get a weekly for a football, you get the Thurston night game, you get the main slate Sunday, you get the early slate Sunday, you get the late slate Sunday, and you get the Monday night game. So you get a full slate, a full weeks of action there. But if you are only interested in the hockey, we do have Sims now for NHL. We don't have a single lineup simulator for NHL yet. But Sims are active. We are going to work on getting a how to use NHL Sims video out at some point soon. But for now, 10% off weekly or monthly, if you want to give it a test ride, I'd suggest a weekly stochastic.com/pricing. 8 games here on tap, let's get into it. Buffalo Sabers, they 3.1 total, heading into Columbus hour. You're not really hour, Blue Jackets anymore, 'cause Rick bonus is a bonehead. But they have a three total. Buffalo going Norris, Thompson, Done, Austin, Benson, Quinn, McLeod, Consta, Holiness, and Peyton Krebs. Columbus going fantilly, nice, Johnson. Love to see Ken Johnson up there. That line is also fully correlated. Monahan, Nishushkin, Garland. That line is fully correlated. And Jake's arch nemesis, Charlie Coil, centering Olivier and Cliffey's favorite human on the planet, Cole Sylinger. This is actually a great game to start. I'll probably watch this game over the Rangers game, to be honest with you, because it's going to be more fun. Did you see those pictures of Nies at Morningsgate this morning? He looked absolutely miserable to be able to. Like, maybe that's just his face, I don't know. But he does go from playing with Ross Lovick and Matthews to Fantilly and Ken Johnson. That's an obvious upgrade for Nies, thanks to my Lord and Savior Kent Johnson, anything as possible. But honestly, I know Marchenko is obviously the better player, but Nies fills a role on this power play that was Veroncoft. And then bonus came. And now Veroncoft's probably going to be Igor Chinakov. He's going to slide into that net front, pest roll. His 5 on 5 game kind of reminds me of Chris Crider with a little bit better of hockey IQ. Like Chris Crider's hockey IQ is just non-existent. He's a mousse on skates. Hello. I haven't feeling this is going to be a decent line. And it's priced like they're going to play 14 minutes, not on the top power play. They're 14,200. Now, last season, Fantilly went out a ton with the Renski pair. I would expect that to continue. Fantilly and Kent Johnson don't have the best numbers together. But a lot of that was probably early in the last season. They weren't playing with Marchenko. Now they have Maddie Nies on there. Buffalo's going to be a good team. Don't get me wrong. But at this price fully correlated, now that top line, 5.9% top to 10% projected ownership, pretty heavy negative leverage. We'll have to see the minutes allocation from bonus. It wasn't great last year, but for that top line, but at 14,200, it's not a concern if they play 16, 17 minutes compared to when they were 17, 18K playing the same amount. So I don't mind them at the price just because even if they only play 16 minutes, they're going to be fully correlated. They're cheap enough where you can fit almost anything else with them. The second line is interesting to me, but there's other lines I like in that price range. They're fully correlated on the second unit. They're fine. But without that top power play time, I feel like they're really the third line because Charlie Coil goes out against TopComp at home generally under bonus. We'll have to see what happens at the start of this year. So I would imagine Coil, Cylinder, and Olivier have more five on five ice time than Monahan, the shoes can in Garland. So I'd rather play Coil and Olivier, too, man, as a filler in my expensive stuff, more than Columbus, too, but I am in on Columbus one. The Buffalo side, very spicy meatball here because they are very cheap. The top line isn't super cheap. I mean, Thompson, Donora, 16,700. Coming in right at the top two percentage at 9.3%. You want to get two of the three on the top power play, and this is a very good power play spot. Now, Jack Reeves has taken over the duties instead of Elvismer's Likens, which is a large upgrade, but Columbus last season had a pretty bad penalty kill. They're missing pro-over-off, they're missing Fabro, they're missing one other defenseman as well. - Severson. - Yeah, Severson. So their second pair is Carson, Suci, and Emil Andre, both of which were not on the team two days ago, and then Jake Christensen and Erica Branson. Their penalty kill is gonna be rough. with a power play stack here or just going Buffalo one, but like if you're going to go even strength here, I just go to the second line of Austin Benson Quinn. They're 10,800 and you get Quinn and Benson on the top unit. You know, it doesn't matter if they're seeing the Phantilly line or the Monahan line, like there isn't a matchup concern for me. You want to leave off Austin and add it in Thompson and make that like 15,800. I think that's fine. I think full on power play stacking is very viable here. Just because like Thompson's 7,900, but after that, Don is 4,700, Quinn's 4K, Benson's 3,900, and Rasmus dollings under price at 6K as well. So I think power play stacking is definitely in play, but I definitely think Buffalo one and Buffalo two are in play. I prefer Buffalo two just because you still get two to three and they're only 10,800. But push comes to shove. I prefer the Buffalo side, but I definitely think Columbus one is playable. Yeah, I'll start on the Buffalo side. Interesting thing about the Buffalo power play. Very up and down over like the last five years. If you look over the last two seasons, when the top power play unit doesn't have Jason Zucker and obviously he's missed time with injury and whatnot, the top power play unit generates 23% fewer shots, 25% fewer expect the goals, and 20% fewer actual goals. They go from like an above average power play, like top power play unit to a below average one. It's not to say they can't score here tonight. It's not like Columbus has a, you know, is the Carolina Hurricanes as far as penalty kill and goes, but it is notable that the Zucker is one of those guys that seems to make the power play work for the Sabers or work well. With him out of the lineup, it makes me kind of hesitant just to, you know, attack their power play, but it is a new season. Columbus is missing half their blue line. It's not like they had a, like I said, it's not like they had a great penalty kill. Anyway, so I don't mind the power play guys from the Sabers. I would probably just go to the top one. Like, I understand using the second line of Quinn Benson and Austin, like we're both Quinn and Benson fans. Austin certainly looked pretty good after he got the call last year. At 10,800, they're a filler. So, you know, if you are playing, you know, super expensive Minnesota, Edmonton, you know, things like that, and you need a punt line. Like, yeah, I get it. But Thompson Donan Norris, like, there are a lot of times last year that Buffalo Top Line only had one guy from the top power play unit, and it would be Thompson, right? Because the second line would be, you know, Donan and Quinn or whatever, and then McLeod from the third line, like, Zucker from the second line, like things like that. So, you actually get two guys on the top power play unit. I was looking at Josh Norris, like, he's, there are guys that rely on power play for production. He's not really one of them, like, 29% of his power play points or his points last over the last two years on the power play, which isn't that high. Like, guys that are heavily reliant are like 40% plus the upper tier would be like 35 to 40%, being under 30%, not a big deal for a top six guy. So, I really don't mind Buffalo one here. I'm not super concerned about the matchups, even if Rensky does play 30 minutes, like, you know, the top pair will be the best pair, but it's not like, you know, you're running into Jacob Slaven or Jonas Brodie or something like that, you know what I mean? So, I would probably lean Buffalo one, but again, if you want to dip down a Buffalo two or three because you need a punt line, like, no issue with that. On the clumb aside, like, here's my thing is I think Adam Fantilly is a good player. I don't know if he's like a a star number one center, you know what I mean? Like, I don't know if he's at the point right now where he can carry a line. Matthew Neyes is, I think, is an underrated playmaker. Like, honestly, when you think about his offensive skills, that's probably his strongest attribute is like, he's actually a pretty good playmaker and I think that's good for Fantilly. And then Johnson can do a little bit of both. So, I can see that line playing well, but listen, the last two years when Fantilly's had not had Karl Marchenko on his line, 2.3, expect the goals two and a half actual at 5.5. Like, those are pretty bad numbers. Playing with Werenski will help. He usually plays about 40 to 45% of his ice time at 5.5 with Werenski behind him with Columbus missing half their blue line. I imagine that would be probably close to 50% here tonight. So, you know, I don't dislike Columbus one here. If I were to pick one or the other for the top lines, I would probably go to Buffalo one. Columbus two is a little interesting for me just because Monahan and Garland were actually pretty good last year together. 185 minutes of 5 on 5 from Monahan and Garland, 65 shot attempts, 3.2 expected goals for 60. Like, that's pretty good. And obviously, they are very cheap. You know, you don't get anybody on the top power play unit, but you're getting them at a fairly low ownership, right? Like, projected ownership at 2.6%, 12,700, so a little bit more expensive than Buffalo two. But if I have to pay next to 2K to get them at 1/3 or 1/4 of the ownership, I'm more than willing to do that. So, for me, if I'm playing a top line out of this game, it's probably Buffalo one. If I'm playing a second line out of this game, it's probably Columbus two. Philadelphia Flyers with a 2.4 total heading into Newark, New Jersey. Very awful. The Devils have a 3.1 total. Flyers probably last night lost seven nothing. We don't know their lines. I would have assumed they go back to what they were, but Porto Martone got cooked in the third period on a goal. He ended up down the fourth line. I don't have a ton of interest in the Flyers anyway, but what they were running yesterday, Zegris, Tippett, Martone, Devorak, Forrester, Connectney, Cates, Bump, Michkoff, Devils, going Hughes, Barat, Mantha, Hissher, Meyer, Evangelista, Rodriguez, Mercer, Artsenny, Greetsuke, the Luke Hughes PR machine keeps on churning. He is the power of play quarterback. On the Flyers side, I don't have a ton of interest, 2.4 total back-to-back on the road. Outside of them in Chicago, every road team has a 3 total or higher. There are other places to go on the road here. If I'm MME, I probably go to Cates, Bump, Michkoff as a filler, just assuming there together, assuming Rick Tockett and his chemtrails don't break up the lines. Michkoff, Michkoff actually looked pretty good last night. Cates looked pretty decent. You know, that line doesn't have a huge sample together, but they do generate at a fair clip. The Devils should be a good defensive team. Should their goalies leave a lot to be desired, but a Philly 3 in MME, if anything. The Devils side is a lot more interesting, because they have new faces and new places. Anthem Antho, Upload Jack Hughes and Jesper Brat should be pretty interesting. Anthem Antho has had a career resurgence the past few years. Now he gets a top-line duties with Hughes and Brat. Now the one thing that, okay, there isn't a huge concern on matchups here, but one, the flyers really slow down the pace, and two, they're only lying that kind of words me defensively is Zegros and Tippett. They've been generally really good defensively. Now with Martone up there, it's probably not going to be great as we saw last night. 18,300 for that top line at home, back to back. They're fine. At 9% top 2, 2.8% projected ownership. The problem is they're kind of in no man's land with the price, right? You have Edmonton 1, $100 cheaper. You have Florida 2 at the same price. Serenely Higel Gensel's $200 more. So Braini Smith, Marchment $300 more. You have Bouldie Erickson at Coleman that are cheaper, Clowler, Schmaltz, Trollcheck are cheaper, you know what I mean? It's kind of priced in no man's land. Even the Hissier Meyer Evangelista line is $1,300 cheaper, and they're coming in with way less ownership. So I think Hughes, Brat, and Mantha are fine, but I think I prefer Hissier Meyer Evangelista. Dvorak Kineckney last season were atrocious defensively. Now, I'm a Joe Wohl slapping and he's starting here tonight, but you know, that line, actually, you know what? I actually, I mixed up the line matching that started the season. I would assume Hissier goes out against Zegris, honestly, but neither here nor there. I still prefer Hissier Evangelista Meyer. You get Hissier and Evangelista on the top power play unit. They're $1,300 cheaper than Hughes, Brat, Mantha. We don't have time to go over the Evangelista in Nashville, Fiasco, and Turbo Touch on them when we get to the Nashville game. I just prefer them just because they're a little bit cheaper. I don't have a ton of interest in the Devils and single entry. They're more 20 max for me, but I think either fine. I lean a little bit towards the Hitchir line. Yeah, so the flyers. We are a team. Oh, man. So here's one issue. I mean, you know, they nuke their lines halfway through the game last night. So who knows what they look like in warm-up. The other is they trade for Simon Benoit in the off season. Simon Benoit is just an absolute tire fire offensively. He can't move the pocket at the NHL level. You just can't. You know who else can't is Nick Sealer and they're a defense pair. Now, they are the third pair. You know, maybe they play like 12 minutes at 5 on 5 or something like that. Those 12 minutes, the flyers aren't doing anything offensively. You can't rely on them to do anything offensively, I should say. That's like when you take 25% of the game and just say you're not scoring in this, it really puts that little little bit of downward pressure on your offensive upside. You know what I mean? And it's not like they have tremendous puck movers spread on the top two lines either. There's, you know, traversing in high is pretty good. I like driestale. They're good. They're not quaint. You know, you don't have quaint use Adam Fox and Kael McIar in your top two on your top two pairs. Like, I wrote a long, I had a 10-part series this summer about how the defensemen really hamper their team offensively when they can't move the puck. And like number one with a bullet was Seymour Benoit. I have concerns about the flyers being able to generate a 5 on 5 pretty consistently, at least with that pair on the ice with the other two pairs fine. But again, that's a quarter of your ice time that you're just writing off. And secondarily, the flyer's power play last year was 32nd in the league and it was the best the flyer's power play has been in five years. They've finished dead last and it was the best this franchise has seen since the pre-COVID seasons. I don't know what the offensive upside is for this roster. I can tell you I'm not paying $16,100 on an eight game slate for any flyer's line. If I'm playing a flyer's line, I even think 13k is probably too expensive. Like, I'd be more interested in one-offing Travis Kineckney, Tyson Forster, Matt Deminchkov, like one-offing those guys, okay. Like three or four man stacking the flyers I think is just insane. So put them on the slag list, you know, watch, you know, Porter Marton pop-off for four goals here tonight. But I don't think this is a team that's going to score for many goals this year. On the New Jersey side, you know, for the show, we're extolling the virtues of Luke Evangelista. I have my doubts about Anthony Manta. When a guy has a career year, like 32 years old, kind of like, I have really man, but he is playing with Jack Hughes and Jesper Brat. But, you know, Hissier Meyer, Evangelista, 1.2% ownership at 17k. I would hate to leave Jack Hughes off. So I think I would do a double center plus Evangelista. So like Hughes, Hissier, Evangelista, get that power play exposure. I do worry about running into Joseph Wall. His problem isn't that he's a bad goalie. His problem has just been staying healthy. He's healthy. I think he's a pretty good goalie. So that is a little bit of an issue. I really do like New Jersey too here tonight. I think Evangelista is like truly like one of the 20 best playmakers in the NHL. And last season, Hissier Meyer, their problem was shooting percentage. I think Evangelista is going to help with that. But their problem was Dawson Mercer. I mean, yes, that's a good point. So Hissier Meyer, Evangelista, I would be fine leaving off Meyer and adding Jack Hughes. That's I've way more interested in New Jersey than anything from the Flyers here tonight. Agreed. Tampa Bay Lightning, making their season debut with a 3.3 total in Madison Square Garden. Rangers have a 2.8. All this talk about Corpus Sallow. He just got placed on IR. He's a week to week lower body injury show. It would be Egor Schuster, tonight. Tampa going point, Kutcheroff, Ilya McKayev, Sareli Hagle, Gensel. It's all really relevant. Rangers going to advantage ad Lafiniere Perot, Miller, Bjork Strand, Doraphayev, Alaba Kuli, Tolvenin. Okay, on the Tampa side, Britain point had an awful season last year, awful. He is on the top power, probably with Kutcheroff, so that helps. But they were also pretty poor defensively point in Kutcheroff last season on a good defensive team. Which is probably why you're seeing Ilya McKayev on that line to help show them up defensively. I'm not sure how much he really adds offensively. I don't particularly love that line with 17,900. I'll never say no to a Kutcheroff one off. He's one of the best players in the NHL. But for me, if I'm playing Tampa, I'm going to Sareli Hagle. Gensel, that line has been all gas, snow breaks, whenever they're together. I think it's like 140 minutes or something like that. Four expected goals, four, four point three actual goals, just generating at light speed. It's not like, I don't want to say it's like a great matchup because it's not really anymore. But the minutes allocation in the first game for the Rangers Blue Line was a bit wonky. So if they're going to run into Smith's and Schneider a bunch, like Sure, like Patterson and Dursy played a ton, but Smith's played more at 5 on 5 than Adam Fox. Like that has to change. But you know, the Rangers didn't look awful. They did get bailed out by Shesterkin. I get 18,500. I think they're fine just because of how good they are when they're together. It's just not my favorite line for single entry or three max here tonight. I do think they're a great line. They have great numbers and they're definitely playable. But in I'm playing single entry here tonight, I'm probably not getting there just because of a road matchup against Igor Stark. And like you could say whatever you want about the Rangers, even when they were awful defensively, Igor has the chance to steal any game at any time. And I don't really want to be relying on team scoring goals against him in single entry on an eight game slate. But I think they're fine in MME. On the rangers side, like listen, Tampa was a pretty good defensive team last year. I think Macayev helped shore up that top line. That third line has been a zegmas and Pontus homeberg were meek grinders last year. Sirelli line has been good. So it's just like listen without an elite playmaker like Pnarran, we saw it the other night, like they generated a bunch of high scoring chances. But if they're not going to convert on them, they're not going to score because they don't have the playmakers to do it. I guess if anything, I'd be going back to Svanajan Loft near parole. But again, rangers are more MME for me. Yeah, the big note for me is Brandon Hagel, top power play from Tampa Bay, right? Because he's a guy that typically hasn't gotten a lot of top power play time. You know, years gone by, last year was all over Bjorksrand, year before that. It was Nick Paul, like those were the fourth wheels this year. I mean, at least they're starting with Brandon Hagel. Over the last three years, there are six forwards who have averaged at least three points per 60 minutes at even strength. McKinnon, McDavid, Kutra, Pasternak, Drysidle, and Hagel. If he stays top power play for a full year, he's putting up 100 to 110 points. And when I see that as price is $6,900, feels like $1,500 to cheap if he lives up to what he's able to, including that top power play time. So that's why I think, you know, you said a Kutraff went off is always in play. I think if I'm building Tampa Bay, I start with Kutraff and Hagel and build out from there. I never leave, I never leave Kutraff off of Tampa Bay stacks. So that's just the way it is. I think Brandon Hagel's the number two guy behind him. It's not Braden Point. In fact, when I ran Sims, I looked at the top 300 lineups after I ran them. 0.7% exposure for Braden Point. He was in two out of the 300 top lineups. I mean, listen, he's going to score some goals just by virtue of who he's playing with. But if I'm playing Tampa Bay here tonight, and I don't mind them on the road against the Rangers, especially if I'm 20 maxing out or above and playing a bunch of lineups, I'm starting with Kutraff and Hagel and building out from there. Should mention that second line is currently constituted. It's really against all Hagel last year. 81 shot attempts. 4.4 expected goals. 4.5 actual goals per 60. Like they're about as good as 5.5 as the flyers are on the power play. And it's not being hyperbolic. So like, yeah, I really do like starting with Kutraff and Hagel and just building out from there. Or just one off Kutraff, one off Hagel. That's fine. On the Ranger side, like, I mean, the fact that Adam Fox played less than Albert Smith, like, surely that's not going to persist for longer than one game, it does concern me though because, you know, Fox missed a lot of time last year for some reason. There's a lot of negative press around them for the way that he's played plays or something like that. Like I just really don't get it. Um, if they genuinely treat Adam Fox, like he's a number five defenseman on this team, it changes my outlook because I like, there's the, I like Patterson. There's no one on this blue line within two or three tiers of Adam Fox. Um, that's one, it's one of those things that does concern me, but we have to assume they're going to play in like a number one until we get some more games under the belt. Um, here's the thing that does worry me about the Rangers. That's second line. I'll play like, um, 14 to 16 minutes in that last game. It was the top line that got ice time and listen, that top line played pretty well towards the end of last season. So at 14,300, I'd probably go to this advantage that I'd left for a near and pro. I don't know exactly. I imagine JT Miller is going to go out against a point line. That's a matchup that I would prefer, but at 14, 15 minutes, 16 minutes, like that is a little bit of a concern. I mean, Sullivan doesn't really hard match. Yeah, that's the other thing too, right? Um, I suspect it will be more the defenseman that are hardmatched in the forwards. I would go to Spanish. I'd left for near and pro. They were good last year, uh, 3.2 goals per 60 down the stretch left for near 25 points in 25 games after the Penaer and trade, including the top power play time. So for me, it's the Rangers top line of 14,300, but I, like, I clearly, like until Brandon Hegel's taken off the power play, I'll probably always lead to the Tampa Bay side. Yeah. Let's move on here. There we go. Minnesota wild GM of the year, Billy G. What a guy. 3.2 total heading into Smashville. The fighting kerfuts have a 2.8 total. This team was like, you know what, we want to trade our 24 year old prospect. It's not even a prospect. He's one of the best playmakers in the NHL, honestly, because we have younger kids, uh, who have a higher ceiling and we don't want to pay the 7.2 million. And they're starting the season with Alex kerfut on the top line. We don't have time. Minnesota wild going, Erickson, Eck, Bouldey, Coleman, Daniele, Yuroff, Kappersoff, Maxime, Shabanov. That's your gym of the year right now. Hartman, Trennan, Bobby, Brink, uh, Fred's going, O'Reilly, Stamcoast, Kerfut, Wood, Forestburg, Hoglander, Maverick Bork, Jonathan Marchesau, O'Ross, the Boss, Colton. Man. Man, oh man. Uh, Kappersoff, Yuroff, Shabanov, is 14k. You get two of the three on the top power play on a career Kappersoff line against the team that struggled mightily on the penalty kill last year. Maybe in, it is a little bit improved this year with guys like Bork and Colton. Maybe, I don't know, but like, even though Maxime, Shabanov couldn't even make the islanders line up with that roster last year, he is top power play here. Yuroff is their top prospect, and they're putting him with Kappersoff, and they're going to avoid the O'Reilly line, not that there's anything really to be scared of with, you know, Stamcoast there. But like after you get past O'Reilly, you have, uh, Forestburg and Wood who couldn't stop and nosebleed last year. You know, maybe, maybe they see a fair bit of Bork, Colton, Marchesau, which has the potential to be decent defensively, but like Karel Kappersoff at 7600 is an egregious price. We've seen him at like 93, 94, 100 at times. So at 14k, it's similar to how Cliffey broke down, uh, Tampa, right? I'm starting with Karel Kappersoff. Matt Boldy's more expensive than Kappersoff here tonight, but I would do like Kappersoff Boldy and then go about my day. I think in MME, if you just want to put in Minnesota too, I think that's completely viable. I think the top line's viable as well. It's just 17,400. At that point, I'd just go point Niko Hescher in single entry, but I don't have an issue with Minnesota one. It's just I'd rather get a Kappersoff line with the same amount of people on the power plate for $3,400 less. On the Nashville side, like I don't have a ton of interest in O'Reilly stamp coats, Kerfoot. Like the reason O'Reilly and Steven's stamp coats had very good numbers in the second half of last year is the reason is playing next to Niko Hescher in New Jersey right now. You look at these guys as numbers, Foresburg, O'Reilly, stamp coats with and without Luke Evangelista. It's night and day. I have no interest in O'Reilly stamp coats, Kerfoot. Like I don't want to say Steven's stamp coat is a Luke Evangelista product, but like he's a Luke Evangelista product. And until he proves me otherwise, playing with Alex Kerfoot, I'm probably just going to go to Wood Foresburg Hoglinder at 14.4, but again, at that price, I'm just going to go play Minnesota too. Like I don't have a problem with two man in Wood and Foresburg. Just because they're both on the top power play unit and Minnesota Wild have had a bad penalty kill since before the declaration independence was signed. So like at that price, I don't mind it. But for me, I'm more in on the wild side. Yeah. Last year, Minnesota drew the fifth most power place for a game. Nashville was amongst the 10 most penalized teams. So like, if things hold Minnesota should get their fair share of power play opportunities, the power play was worse without has been worse without Mads Zookarello over the years. It's not the drop off that we saw with Jason Zookare earlier, but it's around 10% worse. That does matter a little bit. The problem for me is a five on five. Like I understand what you're saying about Capra's off. I look at his line, mate's man. I just, I don't know. I was like, I really don't know. You said it about Shabanov. He wasn't good enough to make the islanders. That's the guy that's starting on the top line top power play unit with Capra's off. When he got to Minnesota last year, they put him on the top line with Zookarello and Capra's off and he couldn't stay there. They eventually had to move Brian Hartman off. Obviously, you're off still a young player, maybe with a year experience and offseason, a training under his belt, something changes. It's very, very unproven to say the least. Meanwhile, if you look at Minnesota two, two point nine expected goals, three point two actual goals per 60. When I ran the sims, there were six Minnesota forwards that were ended up in the 300 top 300 lineups somewhere. Only three had positive leverage, which means they're in the top 300 lineups more than all the lineups generated. All three came from the second line, Coleman, Erickson, Eck Goldie. Normally, I would say I don't want to stack Minnesota without Capra's off, but there's a real possibility he's dragging dead weight on the ice. That worries me. I am much more okay with just playing Minnesota two without Capra's off than I would be doing the same thing with Kutra off for Tampa Bay. I don't mind Minnesota two here. I do wonder about the matchups. Are they going to send out O'Reilly against Capra's off or Goldie? I assume it's going to be Goldie and Erickson Eck, just because again, who's Capra's off playing with, but we really don't know. I'm going to be honest, I have a little bit more interest in the national side here. Particularly that second line of Forsberg Wood, Hoglander. Hoglander had some good scoring years in Vancouver. He never got a lot of minutes. He had only played 10 to 12 minutes, but he's kind of like Nick Robertson was with the Leafs where he scored pretty well in limited minutes. He just never got a lot of minutes. Wood and Forsberg played well together last year, 2.7 expect the goals 3.4 actual. Matt Wood is a, I can't really call him a prospect anymore because he's played a full season. He's a pretty good young player. I think a good dual offensive thread. I don't think they're going to get a ton of ice time out against like Quinn Hughes or Brodeen or whatever. I think they're going to get some more depth matchups. I kind of like National 2 of 14,400. I think, you know, the one issue for me with National 2 is that Columbus top line is also 14,200 and perfectly correlated. But National 2 is coming in at like 1/6th the ownership. So if you're looking for a similarly priced line to not to Columbus 1, but want a fraction of the ownership because you're playing in a large field tournament or something like that, I think Nashville 2 is the way to go there in my favorite line. And it's the two second lines in this game that are drawing my interest. In the past 3 years, the only person Elias Patterson had good offensive numbers with in Vancouver was Nils Hoglander. Oh, and Linus Carlson. And Linus Carlson, who's now on the 7th line. The 3rd best to ever do it. Some people are saying. Yeah. Oh, let's get to this banger. This is a barn burner. Seattle Kraken with a 3 total. heading into Calgary, the pilot lights also have a three total. There's nothing fiery about the flames right now. I mean a dumpster fire is a kind of fire. Yes. True. I withdraw my last statement. Jerry, please disregard. Maggie Samuskevich is out. We hate to see it. Um, Seattle going baneers. McCann, Coco Stevenson. Make a man. Everlay that line is fully fucking correlated. We'll get to it in a second. Berkeley cat and Shane Wright, Ryan Winterton. They're asking for the moon for Shane Wright. So you know how to increase his trade value. Let's play him on the wing with Berkeley cat and Ryan Winterton. That franchise is just run by Miss Piggy from the Muppets. Like it's, I, it needs to be studied. Speaking of needs to be studied, the flames are going frost, greed and Coronado back on Hansek, Fairby, Strom, Zari, Sharon, Govich. Let's, let's just get Calgary out of the way here because Calgary is chalk and I just can't play chalk Calgary. Rock Coronado greed and 13,106.2% project top to 14.7% projected ownership. I believe it's the highest negative leverage line on the night. Let me just double check that. Yes, it is. Three of the top four, negative leverage lines are Calgary and Vancouver. And then in the next four, it's two Seattle lines and another Calgary line. So this game can. Joe Buck itself, but I don't really have much interest in frost Coronado greed and that that ownership at 13,100. Just because Clayton called me out in the discord earlier, I honestly, honestly, honestly, for $100 more, I'd rather go play fully correlated McMahon, Eberla's general receiving. I'm, and I'll get to why in a second. I have therapy. Yeah, day three, we're, we're sitting here going out. Chandler Stevenson looks good. Oh boy. Now, but here's the thing, right? Frost Coronado greed and 14.7% fully correlated last season. They legitimately couldn't score in spearment Rhino with $10,000. 2.2 expected goals per 60 in 140 minutes. That's a large sample. Now they may see some Chandler Stevenson in 5.5, which is a great matchup for them. But you know what? I'm a joey to cord slappy and I'm not playing 15% Calgary on an eight game slate. I'm just not doing it. If you want to go to back on therapy, Hansik. They're the second highest negative leverage line on the night at 10,200. At that point for the negative leverage, I'd rather just go play Buffalo to for $600 more. So by default, if you're doing some really expensive Edmonton Oilers PowerPoint stack, I don't mind a two man of Zari Sharon Govich. Strom is just a cone on wheels at this point, but like they're on the second unit here. They'll see a fair bit of that cat and right Winterton line, which in a small sample, absolutely below. So it would be a two man of Sharon Govich Zari, but on an eight game slate, chalk flames can just absolutely bite dust. If Mackie Samaskevich was on this top line here tonight, I would have a lot of interest in Beneur's McCann and Samaskevich, but it is Capocaco. Capocaco, when he first came over from the Rangers to this line, they played very well offensively. Very well, but it like it fell off. And they're not correlated here, not that you really stack Seattle for the power play. I don't mind Beneur's Caco McCann at 13, one that the issue is like, if I'm going to play Seattle, I'm going to go to Stevenston Everlay McMahon, just because they're essentially the same price and they're fully correlated. The flames after they traded Wegar, after they traded Rasmus Anderson, after they traded Calgary, their penalty kill fell off a cliff. They took a ton of penalties. You know, Kevin Ball is a decent penalty killer, but Zach White clouds a decent penalty killer, but like it's just not a good penalty kill team. No, not a good penalty kill on this team, they take a fair share of penalties. Listen, any's Chandler Stevenston line underwater by any metric at five on five, but this flames team is not good. If there's any time to use a fully correlated Chandler Stevenston line, it's probably here. Am I going to do it? No, like I don't want to play anything from this game, but if I had to choose something that's negatively leveraged from this game, it would be Seattle two. This game sucks, I need to talk to my therapist. Yeah, I. Man, so over the last couple of years, 2.9 goals per 60 for the Seattle top line when Jeremy can is on it, obviously a lot of those minutes were with Jordan Everlay, not Capocaco. I wonder how much of a gap there really is between the two of them at this point of their careers. Like I'd still say Everlay is the better offensive player, but. They have a similar style of yeah, I don't think it's massive Casano, right? The thing is, is if you look at Michael back and Michael back was probably going to have to shut down minutes, right? He'll go out and gets the Benures line, fair bit. The back line wasn't very good defensively when when Blake Colman was on a different line or hurt or anything like that, right? Like three expected goals against per 60 64 shot attempts against per 60 like that's not good. I don't. I think the Calgary blue line, at least compared to where it was at the end of last year, got a little bit better in the off season. Obviously they brought in some on that match Jake Middleton's not a great defenseman, but at least he's an NHL caliber defenseman, which is a lot more than what a lot of teams have on their third pairs. So it's not great, but come on down. I mean, anyways, but yeah, this isn't a match up where I really care about about power play correlation. The interesting thing is when I ran the Sims, there were two Seattle players that came up with positive leverage. That means they showed up at more often than my top 300 lineups and all the lineups I generated. Those two players, Jordan Everly, Chandler Stevenson. So it seems like the Sims are on board with you with Seattle, too. Here's the really interesting part, though, is on the Calgary side. Two of the four highest positively leveraged players on the entire board here tonight, which means showed up more often in my top 300 lineups and all the lineups I made. Two of them were Conor McDavid and Brady Cachock. We'll get to those guys in a second. The other two were Matt Coronado and Michael Backland. I know. I'm wondering if Coronado doesn't get more ice time than he did last year. He only played like 16 and a half minutes of game last year. Who else is there that they could possibly play and give minutes to you know what I mean. Ryan Strong is probably going to play 22 minutes. And you know, Michael Backland is going to play a fair number of minutes. You know, it's not a great matchup against the Seattle top line, but it's not awful. I kind of like Calgary to here. They're come. They have half the negative levers that the top line does. And if you look at the projections here tonight, the top projected player skater from Calgary. And including the goal of Dustin Wolf is Matt Coronado. So less negative leverage ownership for the top stack. One of the highest positively leveraged players in the sins, the highest projected player. All of those things are Matt Coronado. So when all those check marks come in on the Calgary second line, I gravitate towards that. I think for me, it's Calgary to on the flame side. On the Seattle site, I would go to the top line. I'm going to be honest. I don't know how often I'm going to be playing the Seattle crack in the season. Yeah, me either. Eight game slate where there's no absorbent prices, right? Unless you're power play stacking Edmonton or something like that. There are a lot of lines between like 12 and 16 K that you can play. I don't feel the need to just like run out and and goal play, you know, and negatively leveraged Seattle line on the road on an eight game slate when there's a bunch of alternatives. So for me, I think it's Calgary to work boss from this game. Yeah, I mean, Seattle just collects middle six winners like infinity stones like they need top end talent, which they get because it's yeah, they're like team who Carolina Hurricanes, you know what I mean, it's like everybody is 20% worse, but pretty much the exact same roster construction. Oh Chicago Blackhawks, yes, right into the Chicago Blackhawks 2.4 total heading into Utah. The soakers have a 3.6 total highest home total on the board, second highest total on the slate behind the Edmonton Oilers. We'll get to them. Don't worry black hawks going from there Albert Uzi Kane, Canseraf or artist Tara Vinein, Nizard, and Otto Moore. One game into the season, the blender has come out. Utah mammoth going schmaltz Keller-Trocheck, Koolie-Genthali, Hayton Krauss-McBane. - Should say just one quick note. Utah morning skate today, they rotated Lee and Cahler Yamamoto through the second line. Yamamoto, like they seemed to really like Yamamoto. He kind of worked his way up the line up last year. Just something to watch for in more maps. Obviously, it'll something we post about it in Discord. - Yeah, yeah, they love Yamamoto. They resigned him. They went out of their way to resign Cahler Yamamoto. So I think Anders Lee, if he's there, is gonna certainly help Koolie-Genthali but we'll get there in a second. I don't have a ton of interest here in Chicago. Like Frontel Bertuzzi Kane fully correlated in a home matchup against the team that's not Utah. I'd have some interest, but at 16-6, Frontel and Bertuzzi played 130 minutes together last season. They got absolutely run out of the rink defensively. They have the ability to be very fun offensively, especially with Patrick Kane, but Patrick Kane's one of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL right now. So that line is gonna get absolutely throttle. And not to mention, they're gonna get the Keller Schmaltz matchup, which is already good defensively. And you throw Vincent Trollcheck onto that line who is a good defensive player. I'm out on Chicago. I guess if anything, again, it would be the third line for Chicago, and it is our Denado, a two-man, that's about it. Utah side, very interesting. I do really like that top line with Trollcheck there. This is a good power play spot. And you get two of the three on the top power playing Keller and Schmaltz. Listen, this is a spot where I was researching and going, "Holy moly, these guys are cheap." Like Schmaltz, 5,600, Keller, 6,300, Genthor, 6,600, Cooley, 5K, Surgachev, 5,400, is definitely possible to power play stack here. It's a good power play spot. You know, we talk about it a bunch after Chicago traded Murphy and Dickinson. They're penalty-kill, fell off a cliff. But I do like that top line at 5 on 5. Like that front-deal Bertuzzi line is going to get absolutely throttled. Vlasik Byram as a defensive pair just are not it. So I don't mind just stacking Utah one here. They are 11.7% top 2, 11.5% projected ownership. They do have some positive leverage. If you do want to leave off Trochek and add in Cooley or Genthor for more power play, fine. Trochek's definitely not out of place there. I think he'll be fine. The second line is interesting, because Cooley and Genthor, you know, they're great together. They're minutes towards the end of last season. We're a little bit low. But Anders Lee, like we thought his career was cooked after that like knee reconstruction surgery. He was there, like outside of Bohorvat. He was probably the Islander's best forward last year. So like, if he is there at 15, 8 against secondary matchups of the Black Hawks, which is kind of like a noxy moron, they're all secondary matchups. But I don't mind that line, because you still get two, the three on the top power play. Anders Lee will not be out of place there. And then even the third line, a two-minute hate and crowds for 6,800, if you're doing some power play stuff elsewhere, is completely fine. So I think there's way too many ways to attack Utah here. For me, I go Utah one, Utah power play, Utah two, Utah three as a filler. And then I'm out on the Black Hawks. Yeah. Remember, on the first show, we talked about how Chicago's power play over the last couple of years really struggled when Conor Bedard was hurt or anything like that. Game one against Vegas, two power plays. They gave up as many scoring chances as they generated. There you go. Listen to the zone. I do have interest in the Black Hawks generally speaking. It's going to have to be a special situation or when Conor Bedard gets back or something like that. It's not on the road in Utah against a team that was pretty good five on five last year and had an above average penalty kill. Like it's just, there's just not a whole hole, oh, I almost hit X on my, on my whole screen. Now it's been fun. There isn't a whole lot that I really like from the Black Hawks here. In fact, when I went and looked at the Sims, every single player from Chicago that showed up on my top three at the lineups had negative leverage. Nobody above 5% ownership, which was Anton Frontel. And he was the him and Patrick came or the only guys above 1%. Sims don't really love Chicago. I don't really love Chicago. If I were to play anything, it would certainly be that top line. I think Frontel at 5300 is kind of fine as a one off. I'm not running out of my oath to stack anything. It is the Utah side that I have way more interest in. And we talk about the Sims. Seven players from Utah, with just seven of their nine top nine forwards, all have positive leverage, which means they showed up more often than the top 300 linups than all the linups I generated. The only two that didn't were Andrews Lee and Logan Cooley, they were still fairly close, like within a percentage point or something like that. So Sims really do love Utah. In particular, it's the trio, they're not even straight trio, but they're all in the power play together, Keller, Schmaltz, and Genter. Keller and Genter in that mid-6K range. It feels like if Utah kind of hits their stride this season and gets to their upside, those guys are going to be like 7,500 to 8K. We saw them in that range last year quite a bit. I think Genter has a real chance at a 40-40 season this year, with three shots per game. This is a pretty good power play matchup for them. I would lean Utah one here, just because it's 17K, like that's fairly cheap for that top line, even if you only get 200 to 3 on the top power play unit. And if you want to go up to-- if you want to take out Trowcheck and go up to Genter, the top line's still in the 18,600. It's not prohibitively expensive or anything like that. So I much prefer-- I don't really have any interest in Chicago's forwards here. For me, it's about Utah. I do like the Utah top line, whether you want to leave in Trowcheck or put in Genter. It's up to you. I will say Sims really do like Genter here tonight. Plus 4% positive leverage is fairly high for an 8K slate. So I would at least start with color and schmalz. It's just about whether you want to leave in Trowcheck or pay a little bit more netting. Genter, the third line is interesting. Those Hayden, Kraus and McBane all came in with positive leverage. Not a lot, but it's because they're not highly owned. They're all like 1% to 3% ownership. But yeah, two men of like Hayden and Kraus, Hayden and McBane, something like that. If you need to stack in some really cheap Utah guys in a great matchup. And listen, if they start pounding the black hogs, if they're up like three nothing after the first period, that third line's going to get some ice time. So yeah, I don't mind Utah 3 as a filler certainly, but it is that Utah top line that I'm focusing on here. Florida Panthers with a 3.5 total heading into San Jose. The sharks have a 3 total. Florida going Barkhoff, Reinhardt Brady Kachuck, Bennett Verhagi, Matthew Kachuck, Wondell, Ulster Reinen, Vilmanis. Sharks going Selberini Smith, Marchment, Mesa, Chernashov to Foley, Wendberg, Stenberg. That was a tongue twister, and Colin Graf. This is an interesting game because it's a-- Florida has a large total, but if you look at their minutes from their opening night game that went basically the full five minutes of overtime, it's kind of concerning for DFS compared to the price, right? That top line fully correlated to 20,300. Barkhoff and Reinhardt both were over 20, but barely in an overtime game against the Stanley Cup champs. They both played, I think, was over two minutes in overtime and played, like, 20 and 10 or 20. So they would have played 18 to 18 and a half minutes in a regulation game. Yeah, and Brady Kachuck played 16 minutes. Then, Bennett and Matthew Kachuck played 19 and Wondell played 19. Verhagi was, like, 18, like, do I like the Panthers? Yes. Do I want to spend 20,300 for 18 minutes of Barkhoff and Reinhardt and 16 minutes of 7K Brady Kachuck? Like, listen, Brady Kachuck has been 7K since we started playing DFS, and he can get it done. Probably not. Now, this is a good matchup. There's no concerns here, especially with, like, the shark's big idea of the blue line. It was bringing Darnell Merst and Jacob Truba. That's going to be an absolute dumb show. So can they get it done sure? But in a single entry on the road for 20K in 18 minutes, am I going to rely on them to get it done now? I think, you know, a one-off map you could check is fine. You want to do a one-off Reinhardt. I think that's fine. A one-off Lundell, a two-man Lundell, loose the Reinhardt and it's probably where I would be. The shark side. Shark side's interesting, but this is the wrong matchup here. Like, so Breeney, he's matchup proof at this point, right? The problem is, I don't see a world where they send Misa or Wenberg with Ivan Stenberg out against Barcov. I think it's gonna be Celebrini. Like, I'm pretty sure. Like, you know, what assuming makes an ass out of you and me, but like, I would assume Celebrini's gonna see Barcov and Barcov Reinhardt generally have been elite defensively. Egg-bled forzling have been good defensively. You know, they're coming in with positive leverage and Celebrini and Smith have been excellent. You know, their expected goals numbers aren't great, but like, with that blue line last year, frankly, it's a miracle they got to lead average. You know, they throw Mason Marchman on there. He's not gonna blow you away by any metric, but he is, you know, he's probably a step below William Eklund, who didn't get much time up there last season. So I like that line. It's just the wrong matchup at 18-6. If you wanna get there an M&E because they have positive leverage and Celebrini at 8300, where we've seen him at like, 9800 at times, I got you. I understand, but like, for me in single entry, it's just a tough sell at home against a healthy Florida Panthers team. I think, you know, Misa Churnishoff to Foley are okay. At 11-8, there's other lines that I prefer, Buffalo 2 being one of them, but like Bennett Verhae, he could chuck last season for whatever reason. Oh, I mean, they're obviously there was a ton of injuries and they got forced into seeing Top comp and there was injuries on the blue line, but they just were not good defensively. But, you know, again, I don't love San Jose 2, just because there's other lines I prefer in that range. You know, San Jose 3, again, will they be okay for the prize probably, but like, Wondell, Luster, Rhinon are good defensively. So at the end of the day, while this should be a fun game to watch, I don't know how much I'm actually targeting in DFS. - Yeah, the Florida side, like, we know they have one goal. It's winning a Stanley Cup. Like, this is not a team that's concerned about finishing first in the division or winning a league or regular season title or anything. It's Stanley Cup for Boston then. That's why like, even when I did my preseason projections, I tamped down their minutes because I kind of expected the minutes to be a little bit more spread out. I certainly didn't expect bar call from Rhinon to be like 18 and a half in regulation. Like, even that's fairly low. Got to imagine we'll end up being closer to like, 19, 19 and a half minutes, but it does make a difference when you're talking about a line that's over 20K. Funny thing. There's only one player that really has any positive leverage in the Sims when I ran it and it's Brady Kachuk. He might not get a lot of vice-time. His projection today is absolutely nuts. Highest projected player, Conor McDavid, Zacharynski next, Max and Sullivan, yeah, that makes sense. After him, it's Kachuk. Like, he's ahead of dry-side old Tage Thompson, Kutra, Oldie, Capra's off, all those guys. Even if he only plays 17 minutes or whatever. I think Kachuk, as a one-off, certainly does make a lot of sense. Until I get a better sense of the minutes from Florida, I have a hard time paying like 18 and 20K. Like I would probably rather just go play the New Jersey top line or something like that at that price. So I don't mind one-off from Florida, certainly one-off in one of the Kachuk brothers or one-off Ryan Hart, something like that. I don't think I'm gonna be full-stacking anything. The San Jose side, if it was almost anybody but Stenberg on that third line, I would say Wienberg and Graf were going out against Paracoff, I don't know if they're gonna do that with Stenberg, but maybe they will. And the thing is, you talked about management being like a step down from Eclan. Like when I did my projections, I just assumed they're similar players. Eclan had celebrating over the last two years, 3.3 goals per 60 minutes, a five on five. Like that's really good. And if they can get into some of those second and third line matchups, second and third pair matchups, especially, I think they could have a pretty good night here. Here's my issue is like, I don't necessarily dislike San Jose won at 18,000 six. For the same price, you can play Schmaltz Keller again, third at home against Chicago, as opposed to at home against Florida. So like, I think if I had to play anything from San Jose, I would probably just dig into the depth and go, you know, pluck like a one-off, turn a shove, like a one-off Graf. Wienberg, I know he's listed as a third line center, he might still play 20 minutes here tonight. It's just the way that they use him. He goes out a lot with everybody. - He's like Clendell. Wienberg was a third blind center. I don't really like him. - Right, and he'll play power play, he'll play penalty kill, empty net situations, everything. So, even a one-off Wienberg, I don't even really hate. I think this is a game kind of like you. I'm not interested in stacking anything, 'cause there are other lines of similar prices I'd rather play elsewhere on the slate. But I do think there are interesting players from one off, like one of the Koch brothers, you know, like a turn a shove or something like that. I just don't know if I'm full stack, you think. - Edmonton Oiler, so with a 3.8 total, heading into Vancouver, the Kanox have a three total. This is a home-and-home match-up that Vancouver won six to five the other night. Now, I will say, the Kanox had five high-danger scoring chances all night, 1.65 expected goals in that game. Tristan Jari's just a cherishous. I think it's, I think it's Devon Levi tonight, right? - It has to be. - I mean, I know they, yeah, it is Levi. They just hit the ice five minutes ago for pre-game skate. By the way, Edmonton just got on the ice for morning skate. They loaded up the top line, pod calls, and McDavid dry-sidle. And yeah, Devon Levi in that, Zach Hyman, not on the trip. - Zach Hyman, not on the trip. - So who goes the power play? - Why? - I would guess it's happening or, - Yeah. - or happening or formantin? - Oh, boy. But anyway, the only, the only four oilers that really matter now are McDavid dry-sidle, pod calls, and embouchard. I guess formantin, for some reason, it's not a sign I ever thought I'd utter. Vancouver going Patterson to Brusk, with Kara Maki, Rousey, Besser, Ogren, Sassal, Carlson, O'Connor. Listen, on the Vancouver side, it's Vancouver three. And it's just like a one-off of Carlson, the two-man with Sassal and O'Connor. I'm not running out just because they scored five goals against, there are six goals against the oilers. It's gonna happen again. I like, you know, here come the oilers. It could happen again, but like 1.65 expected goals for in that game, like Edmonton shut them down. Tristan Jari forgot what sport he was playing. So I'm pretty much out on Vancouver here. On Edmonton, you start with McDavid and Dry-sidle, you wanna add in pod calls, and you wanna add in embouchard, go about your day. If you wanna take a risk on formantin at 2,800, I think that's fine, just because he could be powerplay one, it's gonna happen in the 3,400 same deal, but yeah, sucks that Savuas out of the lineup for eight weeks. So it's just the big boys in Edmonton, and you just go about your day. - Yeah, you know, we won't know who's the fourth wheel on the power play. Do they go like with three fours, two defense, maybe use Jake Wallman or something like that? Like I, there's just no one else, right? Like I guess you could try Isaac Howard, but it doesn't seem like he's really done anything, basically since he got to Edmonton, and he's not exactly one of Mike Babcock's favorites right now. - There's no one in their bottom six. Like they love Colton Dock, but if they throw him on the top power play unit, outside of Babcock's off the ice issues, he should be headed at center nice. - Yeah, so like, I don't know, man, on the Vancouver side, there isn't a lot to like. I agree with you on that third line. They got minutes, they were basically the second line. Like in that six five game, they got more ice time than the Rossi line did, and it wasn't close, it was by like two or three minutes. You know, anything can change, it was just one game, but those guys are playing 16, 17 minutes. I listen, I know Vancouver's not great, you know who else is great, is that rest of that Edmonton line up, outside the top line, you know what I mean? So like, Yeah, I don't mind Vancouver 3 like a two-man Sasson carolson something like that If you are you go right back to a game stack with Edmonton But if you do need you know if you are power play stacking like Minnesota or something like that or Tampa Bay And you do need a super cheap third line. I think Vancouver 3 is absolutely one of those lines you go to I mean Edmonton. It's you know, you play the top line if you don't you know what I mean a like You know if you do want to just pluck off and play one of mcdavid or one up dry cycle You know go ahead Conor mcdavid is the highest has the highest projected has the highest leverage of any player here tonight He showed up in 40% of the top 300 lineups That I made when I ran sims. So I think Conor mcdavid is the one off you would use but listen Paul Coleson played what almost 19 minutes in that game He's probably gonna have to play close to that again You know, I mean including top power play time. He's only 4700 I'd be hard pressed to not at least put Paul Coleson in so like I mean David Paul Coleson two men if you don't want to put in dry Sidal, but yeah It's Edmonton one or bust and then bake over three if you need some puns. Yeah First of all pot Coleson X Vancouver can not couldn't get into the top six elite skater Not sure why they couldn't use them, but neither here nor there what a great organization Before we move on to defenseman again. Thank you guys so much for tuning in If you are just tuning in and you do want to go premium, which is something we won't make you do these shows We're always be free But if you do want to support us further, you go to stochastic.com backslash pricing You can get 10% off any subscription any sport it could be NFL if you're looking to play NFL tonight Brown Steelers lovely game whether rather watch a thunderstorm, but You can use promo code puck lock at stochastic.com backslash pricing any NHL membership To get access to the sims in this court also valid. Let's talk about defenseman here In the 6k and up range. We have Zacharynsky Evan Bouchard Roman Yosey coin Hughes harassed Miss dolly and Listen Zacharynsky. We've seen him close to 9k at times with half the blue line missing for Columbus He may play 38 minutes here tonight. It's a pretty good matchup. He is an elite offensive defenseman I would imagine his projections through the roof as I pull it up He is the highest projection defenseman by a mile. He'll probably be the highest-owned defenseman by a mile, too But who cares? After that, you know many are saying that Evan Bouchard's on pace for two hundred and fifty two goals this season So do with that information what you will It's a very good power quite match up there. I don't mind Evan Bouchard For three hundred dollars less After that, it would probably be Rasmus Taline at 6k. That's just a ridiculous price in a good power by matchup And then I also think Hughes and Yosey are viable. I'd much rather play Quinn Hughes and Roman Yosey But he is also viable so very rarely you see a top range where everyone is eminent nearly playable but You know for me, I'd absolutely go Ransky one Bouchard to dollum 3 Yeah, that's the order. I have the expensive players as well. I mean you're right about Ransky he's projected for over three points more than the next closest defenseman over five points more than the next defenseman after that So like he's basically is in a tier of his own You know highest positive leverage on the night goes to Matthias Samuelson I'll get to cheaper defenseman a little bit later. Number two is Zach Ransky and it's not even close like he's way above everybody Also, yeah, he's number one. He's probably gonna have to play close to 30 minutes with all their injuries We saw Bouchard had the five point game. I Don't think I would say it's chasing points, but it's the Vancouver Conox You know, I mean it's like if there's one team where chasing points might well probably work out all right, it's Vancouver The interesting thing for me with were Ransky and Dahlene is there are there's a cheap option on the blue line with them Then you can play right like Matthias Samuelson He's in 44% of the top 200 top 300 lineups I made in the simps like by far the highest level And then then Matay chock is gonna be paired with Zach Ransky here tonight That might take some puck touches away from Matay chock Or it could just lead to those two defenseman playing with the puck a lot because they're gonna need to and Matay chock Has a very strong projection for only 3200 as well. So like yeah, it's were answering one Bouchard to Dahlene 3 Should know that I think there are cheap options for Ransky and Dahlene that you can pivot to We'll also mention with no Brock favor. I imagine Quinn Hughes plays a lot here tonight He just doesn't put up like the same kind of peripherals that Ransky does. It doesn't block shots, right? ever In the mid price range Mikhail Surgicev obviously in that great home matchup against Chicago John Carlson running the power play for Tampa Bay Rayna Montour is kind of interesting for me You know, not that I'd necessarily run out to play Seattle players, but five percent ownership projected for nearly 10 points at 5500 He gets involved a lot offensively and it's because there's no one else that can do it besides him and Vince Dunn so I don't mind Montour a little bit cheaper Jacob Truba Listen the guy block shots. What can you say and if there's a match up where he's gonna have to block shots? Floor is certainly one of them Philip Ronic I think you had to assist and a block bonus the other night playing over 25 minutes for Vancouver for Alex on the list again set Jones running the power plate for Florida The fourth best to ever do it Luke Hughes many people are asking listen. He's running the power play. He's below TJ Hughes He didn't look good last night mid 4k's Running the top power play probably gonna be number one for ice time amongst Jersey defenseman event listen man volume and roll matters Under that mentioned Matee a Samuelson Darnell nurse is gonna play minutes Dent Matee Chuck. We mentioned him as well Jonas Brodeen might have to play fair number of minutes for Minnesota with favor out like all those top you know those top Minnesota offenseman Quinn Hughes Jonas Brodeen and Jared Spurgeon all get a bump for me. So Brodeen Under 3k why Kaiser was the second most used Chicago defenseman in their first game behind bow and bar and played like 21 minutes Bill Mike Kaiser Brett Pesci's projecting well Michael Kesslering bounce back season for him We'll see what happens though. Yeah Zach White Cloud probably the number one defenseman in Calgary him and ball Question mark question mark question mark. He's a captain. No. Did they name him captain? I don't know And I'll mention Tom Willander. I'd prefer, you know, White Cloud or Kesslering or Kaiser, but Willander played over 20 minutes for Vancouver the other night Before we move on to goalies. I looked at the gpp's tomorrow. They're doing a four-game slate. But there is 50k at top in the in the Lotto. So if you want us to do a show tomorrow, just blow us up on Twitter. I love seeing notifications um Trying to get those you on bucks. You know, I mean, but let's get to goalies here In the top range. It is gonna be Devin Levi Net 8500 I much prefer Levi DeYari 8500 and gpp's is going to be known for me dog um, you know, there's Romelka. There's Alan Honestly, if I'm spending up in the 8k range, it's probably for Vasilevsky Like listen until the Rangers can prove that they could score goals without Pinaran I'm gonna play goalies against them and Tampa is a good defensive team anyway. They have a decent penalty kill So Vasilevsky or Wallstead in the top range for me just below them. I like. I'm always a jet-screeve guy I do worry that they're missing half blue line that could increase the amount of shot CC's but I wish he was a little bit cheaper 7900s, okay Both goalies in the Seattle game. I preferred to court just because he's cheaper and There's no and I just preferred to court. I can't keep talking about that game unless it's group hour and then Definitely don't play good back Yeah Funny when I ran the sims it spit back the three like three cheaper goalies at me when I went to look at leverage Spencer Knight at 7k ask for off at 7400 UC Saros at 7300. I think those three make a lot of sense here tonight You know knight's kind of in the same situation that he was the other day. It's like if Chicago wins tonight I don't think it's because it's a seven five games because he saves 30 shots and they win like three one or four two or something Ask for off kind of the same thing against Florida. He makes me a little bit nervous. I think I think Night's a night to better goalie than ask for off He's a little bit cheaper. I know he's He's on the road ask for off is at home, but I probably rather played night But Saros said 7300 is kind of interesting like I said I don't have a lot of faith in the Minnesota top line I think the second line is great, but they don't have Brock Faber They have Max Schraubanoff on the top line I think you know Nashville is not great, but they're fairly they're healthy at least so I don't mind Saros So I think it's the three cheaper goalies of night ask for off Saros I would probably go Saros night ask for off in that order For the expensive goalies the two that stuck out to me were Greaves and Wallstad I would probably play Greaves just because he's the fifth best to ever do it It's a nice running bit. Yeah, going through the show But yeah, I think Jack Greaves is legit like a top five top six goalie in the league Columbus is gonna need him to play well if they want to win here tonight. So Greaves and then Walsh that would be the two expensive bulls head look at. - Again, if you want us to do a show tomorrow, blow us up on Twitter with 50K up top, there's a good chance you'll see us. But we'll let you know for sure who you liken for your hat track pick tonight. - The sixth best to ever do it from Nashville, Matty Wood. - I don't know who to pick 'cause the Leafs aren't playing. - You know what, let's start with the season off with a bang. - I can't do it. - You muted yourself when you did that. - Thank God, you didn't hear what I had to say. - No, I said Chandler Stevens. - Oh, well, there we go. - The eighth best to ever do it. - Show number two of 130. We're on Matwood and Chandler Stevenson. Let's go. - Yes. - But yeah, a good chance to see us tomorrow, but if you want us for sure, just blow me up on Twitter, 50K up top, you don't see that too often. So good luck everybody tonight. We'll see you in the discord. See you tomorrow. - Talk tonight everybody.