NFL Week 5 Props to Bet: Top 10 Picks, TD Longshots & Best Bets (Ep. 2254)
35m 51s
Scott Boggan and Joe Madden deliver a comprehensive set of NFL prop bets for Week 5, featuring a mix of under and over lines across rushing, passing, and receiving stats. Key picks include Jalen Hurts under 6.5 rushing attempts against the Jaguars, driven by conservative game plans and strong defensive pressure. Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones are both targeted with under bets on pass attempts due to defensive strength and injury concerns. Receiving-heavy props like Jaylen Waddle over 94.5 yards against the 49ers and Nico Collins over 5.5 catches against the Titans are praised for statistical support and team weaknesses. The duo also highlights high-odds anytime touchdown and first-touchdown props, such as Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones, emphasizing high probability in key matchups. A defensive touchdown prop is suggested against the Denver Broncos, citing a decimated Chargers offensive line. The hosts stress value in low-line, plus-money picks, especially with injury updates and team performance trends. They also promote Polymarket as a new prediction tool with a free $25 sign-up bonus. The analysis blends data, injury context, and betting trends to provide actionable, well-reasoned prop suggestions across multiple games.
This isn't I heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Welcome back. It's a BP top 10 prop picks. I'm your host for the day. Scott Boggan joined by Joe Madden. We know that you guys are used to Welsh and Erickson here. They're both on vacation. Who gets a vacation in the middle of the season, Joe? Not us. We're here. Yeah, I don't know anyone who takes a vacation during football. Maybe they've got some unlucky weddings to go to. Yeah, I know Welsh is going to a concert. I've taken his son to a concert. It's like it's birthday present. So I know that one. Don't know what Erickson is doing. Probably a wedding. Like you said, it is a wedding season. Our boy Seth Wilcock, I know going to a wedding this weekend as well. I'm like, man, you're getting a lot of free drinks. You were in a couple of weeks ago as well. Yeah, that's the benefit. If you have to go and miss your games, at least you get an open bar. We hope they enjoy it. But you get us four prop picks. I've been hot. I'm not guaranteeing any hotness in this one. But Joe, it feels weird. We're usually pigeonholed to Monday night football props only. Yeah, where I am. I do the Monday and the Sunday night and then the Thursday night. But we got to pick from the whole weekend. It was kind of hard to narrow it down. How was it for you? Yeah, exciting to narrow it down. There's so many opportunities for us to jump in on some of these players. I'm excited for it, especially those first touchdown props. I don't do a lot of those, but always exciting to put a sprinkle. Absolutely. Absolutely. So we will hit your 10 props. We'll give you any time touchdowns. We'll give you some first touchdowns as well. But before we dive in, let's take a look at what the boys did last week. Looks like a three and two week for Andrew Erickson didn't get his Josh downs call did get chase brown under 16 and a half rush attempts. He also got run strange over 33 and a half. That one cleared real quick. Jalen Wright under 29 and a half. He was absolutely on that one and missed his Jared Gough under 34 and a half pass attempts because he had 52 lots of passing attempts for Detroit. That secondary just cannot keep anything contained. So they're going to have to probably play point for point a lot this season until those safeties come back. Brian branch of Kirby Joseph. Get back. That's not going to help him a corner though. They're still bad out there. I know they're in on my guy Joey Porter, Jr. But the Cowboys ended up with him. We have Welsh with a two and three week bringing him to 10 and 10 on the season. Missed that Parker Washington one man. Did he run cold? Malik Willis also didn't get over the 29 and a half. And Matt Collins got injured in this game. He was a three and a half receptions. He went out after three. Of course, just the way it goes. But Welsh nailed the Colson Loveland receiving yards over. He had 57 yards and the Jordan love passing touchdowns over one and a half was an easy get as well. 197 to and one. So let's dive in here for week number five, Joe. You are going to be up first. And sorry guys, I don't have ROI for these guys. They can tell you next week. And by the way, we need some they do those sexy picks for those guys. You know, they're like like Welsh is doing blue steel. Andrew Erickson is from the side on his. We need to get some. We need to get some of these or something going for our record next week. So to join on the graphics team here. Let's dive in. What is your first bet? We have the whole weekend to pick from it feels wild. Yeah. What's your first bet you want to you want to take? Yeah, I'll put up nice and early with Jalen Hurts. I'm looking at him to go under six and a half rushing at times. As the Eagles travel late here to London to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now this is one that is supported by the betting pros out projected for 5.7 rushing attempts in this game. He stayed under in seven of his last 10 you guys, including the last three. And I'm looking here at Hurts. And I just think even though we know he's so explosive, he could go for run of 15 yards. I don't think that's going to be the game plan here. We know so many changes with the Eagles on the offensive side of the ball and the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed only 19 rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks thus far this season across four games. That's an average of 4.75 rushing attempts. Now I think it's going to come right down to the wire. I think he's right on that number of six, but six and a half is just too high for me. Yeah, I like this one as well. Like if he is going to run, they've had so many injuries who would be kind of foolish to design a bunch of runs for him and have your quarterback get hurt too with three offensive lineman down and no Devonte Smith and Sequan Barkley hurt. Like let's keep this guy upright. Let's get some quick passes. Let's run with Will Shipley and let's do everything we can to keep this guy on his feet. I think if he does run, it's probably goal line stuff or fourth and one push push type thing. So I'm with you on this one for sure. I think that the number one priority for Philly is keeping here one star offensive player that's healthy, healthy coming out of this game. So I'm absolutely with you on the Jalen hurts call. My first one here is going to be Brock pretty under 32 and a half pass attempts. This one is at minus 120. Now look, no Andrew Erickson here. So I didn't want to go over on everything. We know the undertaker is a big part of the show. So I wanted to hit a couple of unders here before I go to my overs. But BP projection have him at 30.9 pass attempts under 32 and a half. He's only hit this one time in week one this season. That was the Australia game. Seven career starts against Seattle. And he's only gone over 32 pass attempts once Seattle is 24th and pass attempts against as well. So I just think that Brock party probably doesn't need to throw a 32 and a half times in this game. What are your thoughts on Brock party playing against the Seahawks in his pass attempts here? Yeah, I think you're going to have a balance attack out of the San Francisco 49ers. He's not going to need to throw it up that many times. My only concern is if the Seattle Seahawks do get out but I'm expecting it to be a tighter game between these two and him not to go over that number and you know that defense. They're going to be all over him. They're going to put that pressure on him and they're going to find a way to get to him in this game if he holds the ball too long. So I love where you're going with that one. I think the thing that pushed me over when I'm doing looking up things was the fact that they played seven times he's only gone over once. So I think this, you know, almost an AFC Northish type of game between these two, you know, grimy, dirty big hits, that type of stuff. So I think it's probably best to keep Brock party upright as well. Before we move on, let me tell you you guys you can find the NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet quickly. Compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. You can make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros.com slash props. All right, Joe. What is number two for you? Well, I'm going to roll with another under and another quarterback here. I'm looking at Daniel Jones. I'm looking at his past attempts and this number is just too high coming in at 31 and a half. The cults are facing the stealer. Isn't we know how solid the stealer's defense is and they're going to put that pressure on Daniel Jones in this one. You got Daniel Jones and the cults returning from overseas as well. And the stealer is they've a lot of 114 passing attempts. So an average of 28.5 passing attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks. And I think this is going to be a hard one here for Daniel Jones to be able to put those passing attempts on the board. I'm looking for them to really rely on a heavy run game here with Jonathan Taylor and not have to utilize his arm because utilizing his arm against the secondary here. The stealers is going to be a hard thing to do. Plus his center didn't practice on Wednesday here. He was in a brace in a boot. So he's not going to be in the lineup if I had to say anything about it. So I think Daniel Jones stays under the number. This is where he tore his Achilles last year as well. It was in Pittsburgh. So we're weird kind of return here. I don't know. The stealers are so weird. You know, that's my team. So I watch them every single week. But the defense has been solid. So I think if you're smart, you run Jonathan Taylor way more than you let Daniel Jones put the ball in the air and get hit by T.J. Watt and Alex Heismith. So I'm with you on that one. And guess what? We're going to go with another under. I swear. I have overs here. We're going to play more overs than Under's. But I'm going to go with another under and it's Jordan love under 33 and a half pass attempts at minus one or nine. 32.4 is his total here. But he's gone over this twice. But Chicago has been hogging the ball. Chicago is first in time of possession right now. 36.35 is their average Green Bay 31st in time of possession. 26.14 is their average time of possession in games. And it's just a beat up Green Bay team right now. The offensive line obviously really, really shot. I don't know if you want Jordan love standing back there passing this many times against Chicago. And Chicago's defense has been good enough and their offense has been strong enough to not give the ball up. So six starts against the Bears in his career. And he has never had more than 32 pass attempts in a game against them. So another under here. We're channeling our Andrew Erickson love and Jordan love under 32 and a half. So what are your thoughts on this one show? Brilliant. Jordan love can't even make those passes anyway. So I don't think he's going to get those attempts out there. We know the Green Bay Packers are absolutely struggling. And I had so many hopes for the offense. But which else shakeups out unable to have established that run. They can't get those pass attempts even. So I think it's a really solid way to go.
- Thank you, all right, what's next for you? - I've gotten over free, guys. I'm looking at JSN Versiato, and I'm taking him over 94 and a half or receiving yards at home versus the 49ers. And I look at the 49ers, and I look at the injuries on this team, and I think JSN will absolutely feast. Now, I know last week versus the Chargers, he wasn't able to go over this number, which was kind of shocked by with only 76 receiving yards in that on five receptions, but looking at all three of the other games this season, he's cleared 100 receiving yards. He had 128 at Washington, 155 at Arizona, and 122 versus New England. I'm looking for him to absolutely feast here as Sam Donald feeds him the ball. - Yeah, I know that large totals can be a little bit intimidating. I'm also on the Pukka Nakua over four Monday night football. I think his is 92 and a half. Like, it sees big totals, but you give the big guys the big totals, right? And that's exactly what JSN has been, and even our resident Niners fan, the Welsh, has said, look, they still can't cover, right? Like, things are getting better for San Francisco. They've looked really good, but they still are kind of weak on the back end. So I think JSN does say on this game, so a high total, but one you don't need to be intimidated by, because it is JSN. You give the big guys these big totals, and they clear them routinely. I'm gonna go with another big guy that is healthy right now, or at least we think, so Nico Collins, over five and a half receptions, it's minus 122 at the Titans. He's passed this in both of the games that he's played, eight targets, seven catches, 115 and two scores against Dallas. Before that, it was seven for 75 and a score in the first game of the season. But why do receivers versus Tennessee? I mean, three of the big dogs have cleared this in the four games that they played. Today, flowers had eight for 118 and a score. Devonte Smith had 13 targets, 10 catches, 117 and a score and care Wilson had seven targets, six catches and 79 yards. So everyone has gone over this five and a half fairly easy. We saw how much better this offense moved with Nico Collins in there. Hopefully we can get something just a little bit from David Montgomery. My gosh, he's been just a ghost the last three weeks. It's been terrible. So, but everything in this offense moves better and we saw a CJ Stroud, even though they lost last week. It was one of the CJ Stroud's best games in the regular season that he's ever played. So hopefully we're getting more of that moving forward for the Texans, they're depressed in H town. That's where I live. So they have not been liking this start for the Texans. My fault, by the way, I did pick them to go to the Super Bowl. So this is on me. It's totally on you. Why did you do that? I'm stupid. I just, I watch them beat my sealers into the dirt in the playoffs and I go, okay, you get CJ Stroud coming back. He played better down the stretch. You improve your offensive line. You have this killer defense and the defense has been the problem and they haven't made many changes. That's kind of crazy. So, yep, Houston, you complain me. This is completely my fault. A hundred percent that the Texans have been bad. But what are your thoughts on Nico Collins here against Tennessee? There might be a little weather here as well coming off that hurricane. Yeah, against Tennessee here, he definitely should be able to put those receptions up on the board. The Houston Texans need to find a way to dig deep and get a win. I still can't believe they're sitting in the position they are because I was like you. I believed in that defense. And I am not sure what really happened to this defense that we saw last season because I expected them to come out so much stronger. And I kind of doubted CJ Stroud out there. I didn't expect him to be able to make those clutch plays when needed as much as he has so far this season. So I think this is the game where you want to go in on Houston. It's the Tennessee, it's the Titans here. Then the Titans are going to struggle, right? They're going to struggle to stop them. And hopefully this defense comes to play. So I'd tell you, Roll with Nico Collins over. The Titans offense might be the biggest issue. I mean, the players on defense are OK. But the offense holds the ball so little. Lots of three and outs. Cam Ward has not been putting it together. They haven't been putting pressure to score. So teams run in the second half against them. But I think you go to Nico early. You go to Nico often when he's healthy. And I think we're going to see a continuation of that, for sure, here. Before we move on to the next bet, let me tell you guys. I need to tell you about this new prediction market called polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $25 on your first trade. We need to deposit just $10. And they now launch new feature squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the polymarket app today and use the code FPPOD. When you sign up, that's FPPOD, POD to get $25 after you deposit just $10. All right, Joe, what is number four for you here? OK, I'm rolling with Tyson Badgent of the Chicago bearers in lamb versus a packers. I'm taking him over 10 and 1/2 rushing yards. Now, I'm not asking him to be Caleb Williams and them to design schemes out here for him to run the ball. But you're looking at a packer's defense that has allowed 78 rushing yards so far on 22 attempts to oppose in quarterbacks. And they're going to put that pressure on Tyson Badgent. As they put that pressure on him, I do think he should be able to scramble enough to go over 10 and 1/2. It's not asking a lot. We've seen quarterbacks that are completely unmobile. Like Matt Stafford, be able to go over this number. So I think Tyson Badgent could easily go over this. And when we look here at what the packers have allowed, you look at Daniels last week, the undrafted rookie coming out. Eight rushing attempts for 55 rushing yards. Tyson Badgent can get there. Yeah. And we mentioned before too, right, the time of possession. It's just so heavy and favorite of Chicago against everybody. And the packers almost dead last 31st in time of possession. So you talk about a guy that's going to have extra opportunities to get you these rushing yards. It should be Beijing and the Bears this this week against the packers. I think, you know, I still think the packers are one of the better teams. But when you're missing a bunch of parts of your offensive line, your start running back pieces on defense too, like, you're going to get Josh Jacobs and Michael Parsons back at some point, right? I do think things are going to look better for the packers moving forward. But right now, it's just a really tough spot that they're in. And Chicago looks strong. And Chicago doing this all with backup quarterbacks is also weird. But we know Ben Johnson really wants to beat the packers. He hates the packers like all I liked that he embraced that too. Like, if you're going to be a Bears guy, you should hate the packers. If you're going to be a Packers guy, you should hate the Bears, right? So we love that type of rivalry stuff, especially, you know, being an AFC North man. I love to hate my rivals for sure. I think this one's my favorite pick of the week. And it's one that BP did not agree with me on. So maybe take it with a grain of salt. But Michael Wilson over five and a half receptions, first Detroit was plus money. When I looked at it, plus 115, he's seven in receptions in the league. So far, he's cleared this easy two weeks in a row. 17 targets 11 catches 89 yards and a score against the Niners 13 targets. Seven catches 95 yards at the Giants. Detroit has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers 61 receptions for 829 yards and five touchdowns. We talked about it earlier. Man is Detroit secondary rough. It is, it's like almost historically bad at this point. It looks terrible and the cardinals. Their defense is going to give up points, right? This is why this is what I believe the highest point total of the week of 54 and a half are tied for it. So Vegas expects a lot of points. I expect a lot of points. He'll be set has been targeting Michael Wilson. You know, Marvin Harrison caught that touchdown in the first quarter last week. And then saw three other targets and didn't catch a single one of them. It's been all all-traimic pride. It's been all Michael Wilson here. So this is why I said I'm big on this one. And the dude has had 30 targets in the last two games. Yeah, I think five and a half is definitely doable for Michael Wilson against the Lions here. Well, especially when you're going to get plus money. How can you say no if you're getting plus money for the over five and a half? And yeah, he should hit around eight out there. You said it about Detroit. We watched them in that last game and it was depressing watching what they were giving up out there. I was pulling out my hair because I was rolling with Detroit in that one. And they just weren't able to get it done. So I would look there as well. I think the Cardinals might win that game. And I know Welsh, Welsh did not like that take, but I think the Cardinals have a chance at winning. They're at home and the Lions have been playing some bad football right now. So sorry to Troy fans. I don't mean to to rain on anyone's parade here, but I think it'll get better for them too. They're going to get their safeties back, but it's rough on the perimeter for them for sure. And that's, I think it's going to be a big Michael Wilson day. What's your last prop that you have here, Joe? I'm turning back to that Texans game at Tennessee. And I'm looking at Woody Marks here for his rushing and receiving over 39 and a half. You said it earlier, David Montgomery is just not getting going. And we're seeing more workload coming in here for Woody Marks. And I'm looking for the Texans to get up in this one and then having to rely on that run game with them. Having to rely on the run game, we're going to see Woody Marks in there. But I want to be cautious with that because if all of a sudden can
Lord and the offense of the Titans somehow get stuff going. And it's a competitive game. You know, CJ Strauss is going to be put in the position where he has to throw that ball as well. And so the rushing and receiving for Woody Marks, 39 and a half is such a doable number. He's only averaging 21.8 rushing yards, but 7.8 receiving. I think he gets 10 receiving, but 30 rushing yards. So we'll get there. This is surprising to me. I guess it shouldn't be because of what we've seen. But I just went and looked at the snap counts for the Texans, right? 268 total. How do you think that split between Montgomery and Woody Marks? I think Woody Marks has a majority. He doesn't, but it's it's 146 to 122. It is within 24 snaps over, you know, four games. That's six snaps a game. That's barely any difference at all. And we all thought Monty was going to come in here and be or at least I did. I shouldn't speak for you, but I thought Monty was going to come in here and be the bell cow for this team. Yeah, he's a three down back. And it seemed like last season they when they spoke about Woody Marks, they were consistently speaking about how Woody Marks was a very good receiving back, right? And that's kind of how they viewed him was as a third down back. Well, they're not using him like that this year at all. He's a he's a three down guy. And that is how they've been using him. And I think that is going to continue moving forward here. So my last pick that I have here, this was a hard one, but I just saw this low number and plus money. And again, I had to go after this RJ Harvey over five and a half rush attempts at the chargers plus 106. This just seems way too low to me. Even with his low production and then passing him the ball last week, he still had seven carries for 25 yards. The chargers, I mean teams have been beating the chargers into the dirt. So they have allowed the fourth most rush attempts in the league this season at 105. I know JK Dobbins is still the main guy in terms of running the ball here. The script flipped. It was more RJ Harvey in the second half, catching the ball. He led them. I think it and catches last week. So very solid week for RJ Harvey last week. I also think that he's just still the better back between him and Dobbins. So I think five and a half is way too low. This is a plus 106. So we'll see how it changes going into the weekend. But I think just five and a half rush attempts for RJ Harvey is a bit too low for me. What do you think? Did you hear the news? The fake news on Denver here. It just dropped right before we start recording. Sean Payton's taken back over the play call. Oh, yes. I did see that. Yeah. Yeah. I love that. Right. Sean Payton is going to turn to that run game and turn to that run game. Heavy. I'm not sure why they ever tried anything else. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind out there and he is going to have him just click and so I love where you're going with that. I can't say no. Yeah. Yeah. That's it's just too low of a total plus money. You know, plus the majors are terrible. They're my team. I can say that. Chargers fans. You can hate me. But I'm sure you all agree with me. Our team's terrible. Yeah. Joe has been, you know, we talked before and after the Monday night football livestream, you've been complaining about your team the whole year and who can blame you? They look miserable. What do you think about the Justin Herbert and Madison beer memes that we've seen? Those are those are pretty good. I also saw one that said it was an action figure and it says Justin Herbert in his post game is his post NFL career and he's in a subway outfit. So you know, trade him. The chargers need to trade him. And I'm going to say that he can go somewhere else and have more success, right? The chargers look what they did to Philip Rivers. Look what they always do to their playmakers out there. We had LT and this team still couldn't get to the Super Bowl. Like, oh, I'm on. It's Tom break, right? And Ben Rock is for Compate Manning in the AFC. So I'm not going to you can't blame all of it on them, but all of it. That was a bad era that that Philip Rivers was in. But you think you get told. Yeah. Come on. It's our coaching choices, right? Out there. That's what I was going to say. Do you think you'd rather have them fire Harbaugh than trade her and McDaniel let them both go? But the chargers are always played. There's always something happening with the chargers ever since I've been a fan of them. Maybe it's my phone. Maybe it's your defeatist. You got the defeatist attitude for sure. They're going to they're going to get better, I think. And I think, you know, four weeks. I saw people saying Caleb Downs is a bust after four weeks. I'm like, it's four weeks, guys. Like let's relax. Let's take a beat here. I don't want to be like Aaron Rodgers, but maybe you do need to relax a little bit. That's that's a bit much. The only team that's ever gone Owen for made the playoffs was the San Diego Chargers in 1992. So there's still hope a Chargers fans want to hear that. But the super chargers as Berman used to call them. But yeah, I mean, I feel like I'd just quit calling them San Diego like last year. So, you know, been better about it, but never perfect. All right. So we're going to go to our anytime touchdowns and first touchdown calls. But let me tell you guys, if you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats, the prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets had the bidding pros dot com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. All right, Joe, anytime touchdowns, what do you got for us? Okay. I've got Garrett Wilson, the wide receiver of the Jets for anytime touchdown. It's coming in at plus 140. He's got two touchdowns on the season. Definitely looking for his third here versus the Cleveland Browns. Now one of the biggest issues with the Cleveland Browns is their ability to limit that passing attack out there. They've allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers through the first two weeks. And Garrett Wilson will be targeted there in the end zone. So I know it's not as much values. You want it plus 140, but I still think it's doable. I like it. Who's number two for you? Number two. I'm rolling with Stefan digs for the anytime, Teddy coming in at plus 170. Now he's got three touchdowns on the season. He's looking for number four. Washington is at home in this one versus a Giants. Now this is a big question mark if Stefan digs is playing. I do think he's going to play in this one. And with Jayden Daniels back in the lineup because Stefan digs is dealing with a hamstring injury. But if he's good to go, he's going to get those targets. He's already seen four targets there in the red zone and the Giants defense has allowed the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers. I like it. And what's it? I think these guys, by the way, do two for you, we're going to do three. So what do you have for your third? Oh, third, we're getting a great plus money here with Bonix for the anytime, Teddy versus my charger is coming in at plus 410. I think it's a sneaky play here. We've seen him with one rushing touchdown on the season. That was versus the Rams in week three in that 30 to 26 win. And the charges have already given up two rushing touchdowns thus far on the season two opposing quarterbacks. That was Josh Allen and both of those. And I know Bonix is no Josh Allen, but Bonix has the mobility. And in that tight situation in the end, so when he's able to make those calls on himself. So I like Bonix, especially with Sean Peyton back calling the plays. Yeah, I like these calls. These are definitely some strong ones. Bonix, I feel like I missed, I missed that one like six times last year. I called Bonix for a rushing touchdown so many times. And I feel like I was the the cooler. So hopefully you're the heater on Bonix, because I can't go back to it. I missed it too many times last year. This week for my touchdown calls, I'm going to go Nico Collins. We already talked about the receptions against Tennessee plus five and a half or five and a half or more were on that. And it's plus 140 here from the score, touchdown, scored a couple last week as well. I just think that he is at this point when you don't have much of a run game, who is more likely to score a touchdown on the Texans and Nico Collins. And they have a really good match up here this week against Tennessee. So hopefully the rain and wind doesn't impact this. And it looks the weather report that we had was not terrible. It was 47% chance of rain when I looked today. So that doesn't that doesn't guarantee us rain. But if we do get a nasty storm, of course, come off of those. But I think this is going to be a clear enough game for Nico to score at least one. My next one, this one's in a dome. So no excuses here. Tramick bride plus 120 versus Detroit. I mean, they just they're going to go to him early and often it's every single week. I don't know that there is a pass catcher that is more likely to score a touchdown on a week to week basis and Tramick bride. So when I see it at plus money, it's almost an auto take. So Tramick bride plus 120 against a miserable Detroit lion secondary right now. At home, no referees cursing at him. I think he's going to be much better this week. So plus 120, we're going there. And then I'll throw a dart on a deeper one. We just heard that Michael Pittman is going to miss this game and multiple other games. I'm going to go to Roman Wilson because his number was sitting at plus 250 against the Colts and Rogers loves this dude. We saw him get the pop pass on Thursday football and score on that one. And he's had a couple chunk gainers as well. Colts secondary been playing well if you're not sauce gardener. Man, sauce gardeners getting torched out there. They trade a two first round picture this dude too. So a little bit surprising. But so mine are going to be a nickel calling Tramick bride and Roman Wilson as my anytime touchdown calls. Joe, these are impossible. First touchdown calls. They're not my favorite. We'll give you a couple here because the boys have been doing
it. But what are your thoughts on first touchdown scores? What do you have for us? Yeah, they're a little bit fun and they're a lot fun for the bank account when they do cash. So my first one's going to go with Saint Brown for the Lions coming in at plus 700 versus the Arizona Cardinals. He's already racked up five touchdowns through the first four games and Arizona's past defense has struggled giving up 11 passing touchdowns. So we need Detroit to have the ball first because otherwise, I think the Cardinals are going to score. You've already talked about your touchdowns there with McBride and he has every ability to get the first touchdown if the Cardinals have the ball first. So Lions Saint Brown plus 700, let's take a shot. Yeah, look, I'm more than willing to have Tramick Bryant score the second touchdown of this game. So as long as he gets in the end zone at some point, that's all we care about. Yeah, and then I'm going to look at Justin Jefferson for the first touchdowns for the Vikings at the Saints that's coming in at plus 800. Now, this is another one if he plays because of that ankle sprain, but everything is pointing to him playing here. Why? Well, because this is his home state of Louisiana and the first time he's going to be able to play here in front of his home state and he is so eager to get out there. This is a storyline bet, right? Justin Jefferson, if we get the Vikings getting the ball first, he's going to want to be that first. He's going to make sure he gets open out there for Kyler Murray. So I'm going to roll with that one. Good luck on these first touchdowns here. Yeah, we'll see. These are hard to hit. And we're fighting too because my first touchdown call is going to be Aaron Jones, not nearly the pad of Justin Jefferson though. It's half at plus 400, but geez, are they given the ball to Aaron Jones so many times they do not trust DJ Dallas. They do not trust them in Claymore. I kind of like Clayborne coming out of Wake Forest. You know, I think he fits this system real well, but obviously not everything working perfectly for the Vikings quite yet on offense for him to get the ball anyway. But Aaron Jones has been touching the ball 20 plus times I think two weeks in a row. So that's why I have him at plus 400. If you get four to one on a guy touching the ball that many times, I'm going to be all over it. And then my other one just because the number is huge and I love this guy. Isaiah likely plus 1300 at Washington. Who knows who's going to score first in this game. It's very strange one, but a division rivalry game and Winston's been going to likely. So I was kind of afraid that when Jackson Dart went down, I don't know what's going to happen here. Obviously, neighbors is your main guy in New York, but Isaiah likely has continued to be the number to target here. So plus 1300 13 to one, we really like those odds. So let's recap, Joe. You are going with, if I could scroll back up to it here, Daniel Jones. That's your second one. The first one is Jalen Hertz under six and a half rush attempts. You're going Daniel Jones under 31 and a half past attempts. You are going JSN over 94 and a half receiving yards. You are going Tyson Baygent over 10 and a half rushing yards and then Woody marks over 39 and a half. Is that Russian receiving yards? That's a great number. I don't even think I thought you said rushing. That's a great number for rushing and receiving. That's a really good one. For me, I'm going to Brock Pertie under 32 and a half past attempts. We are going to go with Jordan love under 33 and a half past attempts. That's it for my unders. We're going Nico Collins over five and a half receptions against Tennessee. We're going Michael Wilson over five and a half receptions against Detroit and Archie Harvey over five and a half rush attempts at the chargers. And then for our touchdown calls, Joe, you have Garrett Wilson step fund digs. Bo Knicks scoring for anytime touchdowns. I've got Nico Collins, Tramick bride and Roman Wilson. And then first touchdowns, you've got Amanra and Justin Jefferson and I have got Aaron Jones and Isaiah likely. Any other props that we missed here, Joe, that we didn't hit on the sheet that you want to throw out there. I know you like some defensive calls, but I don't know if they come out this early. What would you have anything there or anything extra to offer us? Yeah, that's look at the Denver Broncos in every single way. I'd look for that defensive touchdown. Look at what the chargers are up against the only player on that offensive line. Basically that isn't a no name that no one knows is the back up center out there for the chargers. The whole offensive line is decimated. If you look at the Denver Broncos, Nick Benito, Zach Allen for those anytime socks, you look at the interception, the pick six, I'll be all over that on Sunday. I love it. The self deprecating chargers fan picking against her team. Hey, look, if they're not going to win for you, they can make you some money. Exactly. That's exactly how I feel on it. Yeah, that's exactly how you should feel on it, but that is going to wrap things up for us today. Before we head out, make sure to like the video. If you're watching on YouTube and make sure you're subscribed to the bedding pros YouTube channel and podcasts. So don't miss out on any of the bedding content across all the sports and bedding pros tools as well. For Joe Madden, I am Scott Bogman, we will see you guys next time. Well, Shane Erickson back next week. Take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to the bedding pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and Tiktok at bedding pros and Instagram at bedding pros and FL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/beddingpros. This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The hosts, Scott Boggan and Joe Madden, present a list of 10 prop bets across the NFL weekend, including rushing, passing, receiving, and touchdown props.
Key picks include Jalen Hurts under 6.5 rushing attempts against the Jaguars, Brock Purdy under 32.5 pass attempts against the Seahawks, and Daniel Jones under 31.5 attempts against the Colts.
Strong emphasis on under bets for quarterbacks due to defensive pressure, injury concerns, and team strategies favoring run games.
Notable over props include Jaylen Waddle over 94.5 receiving yards against the 49ers, Nico Collins over 5.5 receptions against the Titans, and Michael Wilson over 5.5 catches against the Lions.
First touchdown and anytime touchdown props are highlighted, with high odds on players like Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and Isaiah Wynn in key matchups.
The hosts critique the Chargers’ offensive struggles and suggest a defensive touchdown pick against Denver due to a broken offensive line.
They emphasize value in low-line prop bets with plus-money odds, especially when paired with injury updates and team dynamics.
A promotional note highlights a new prediction market, Polymarket, with a free $25 offer for users signing up.
Summary:
Scott Boggan and Joe Madden deliver a comprehensive set of NFL prop bets for Week 5, featuring a mix of under and over lines across rushing, passing, and receiving stats. 5 rushing attempts against the Jaguars, driven by conservative game plans and strong defensive pressure. Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones are both targeted with under bets on pass attempts due to defensive strength and injury concerns.
5 catches against the Titans are praised for statistical support and team weaknesses. The duo also highlights high-odds anytime touchdown and first-touchdown props, such as Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones, emphasizing high probability in key matchups. A defensive touchdown prop is suggested against the Denver Broncos, citing a decimated Chargers offensive line.
The hosts stress value in low-line, plus-money picks, especially with injury updates and team performance trends. They also promote Polymarket as a new prediction tool with a free $25 sign-up bonus. The analysis blends data, injury context, and betting trends to provide actionable, well-reasoned prop suggestions across multiple games.
FAQs
Key prop bets include Jalen Hurts under 6.5 rushing attempts against the Jaguars, Brock Purdy under 32.5 pass attempts against the Seahawks, and Daniel Jones under 31.5 pass attempts against the Colts. Other notable picks are Mike Williams over 94.5 receiving yards against the 49ers and Nico Collins over 5.5 receptions against the Titans.
The Eagles are likely to rely on quick passes due to injuries to key offensive linemen. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed only 19 rushing attempts to opposing QBs this season, and the Eagles are expected to keep Hurts upright to avoid injury.
Brock Purdy has only gone over 32 pass attempts once in his career, and the Seahawks are known for aggressive pressure. The 49ers are expected to use a balanced attack, limiting Purdy’s need to throw often.
Yes, because the Colts’ defense is strong and their run game is dominant. Daniel Jones will likely be pressured heavily, and the team will rely on Jonathan Taylor to minimize passing attempts.
Williams has recorded over 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games. The 49ers have multiple injuries, and Sam Darnell is expected to feed him the ball, increasing his receiving opportunities.
The Titans’ secondary has struggled to contain receivers, and Collins has consistently caught over 5.5 targets in previous games. He’s targeted frequently against Tennessee, making this pick highly likely.
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