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Speaker 3All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros NFL podcast. Week 5 is upon us, so we're hoping to turn this into a winning Sunday following a wedding-filled Saturday. Xero is Saturday.
Speaker 4One of my best buddies is getting married, but I got to drive four hours in the morning to get to the wedding for pictures, so got to practice responsibility here. Got to make sure I am in peak performance because you got to watch out for that dance floor, man. Like, I am an absolute machine on the dance floor, so I got to make sure that I'm fully locked and loaded, ready to go. So a couple adult bevvies here and there, but nothing, nothing too crazy because, again, we got games on Sunday at 9 30 in the morning. Dude, so I'm going to be ready and I got action on Jags Eagles, so let's go for it.
Speaker 3Let's go. I would expect nothing less, man, and I know you'll be locking in that betting card early ahead of your busy weekend. How was week four for you, Erickson? For myself, Minnesota, Miami, that was a little squad ride we had. No sweat at all on the under in that game. Polymarket prediction of the week that got voided right away. Keenan Allen inactive in London. Huge game from Ted Roe McMillan. I called every part of that, except I instead went with a Darren Waller anytime touchdown. Instead, the Tet touchdown, and that would have paid out well. And I don't even talk about the upset special of the week, but how was the betting card for you?
Speaker 4Three and two. So we flipped into the positive side after back to back two and three weeks. So hopefully this is a sign of things to come going on an upward trajectory. But I mean, the polymarket prediction of the week with the under was just the lock of all locks, dude. And I think that it was great that we came to that conclusion kind of on the show last week, where, again, we don't expect everybody to tell every one of our bets. But when we feel like we really are confident about one or two specific plays, I feel like we really helped the listeners with that one, because I mean, dude, like the Dolphins can't score. Nobody can score against Brian Flores and Tyler Murray right now is I mean, that guy's not putting up points.
Speaker 3So. Yeah, I completely agree with you, man. That was a fun one out there and felt pretty good by by halftime, right? I was putting my feet up thinking, hey, where am I going to spend this this cash after that one? So appreciate you riding with me in a good weekend from you. And before we dive in, also, I just want to say I appreciate everyone who's been riding alongside us on Bank Pro's YouTube channel or the audio feed. We just hit 80,000 subscribers on YouTube, and that's an all thanks to you, the listeners. And as always, if you can help support us easiest free way to do so, make sure you give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. And don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you're new. And Erickson, let's go and fire things up starting in that game that you already spilled a little bit of the tea over there. Maybe have some crumpets on deck for Jacksonville versus Philadelphia. I can only imagine there's one play you have in this game.
Speaker 4Elite segue there, Seth, talking about the leaves, the crumpets, everything good because I'm betting on my London Jaguars here laying seven points against the Philadelphia Eagles, the reeling Philadelphia Eagles. So I think I bet on Jacksonville in some way, shape or form in every single game or every single matchup so far this season, two and one betting on the Jags against the spread. Did not bet them ATS last week, bet the over in that game that did not come through. But Jaguars, still ended up covering and winning outright despite being underdogs. And I like them more in this spot here because they've delivered time and time again when their favorites at home laying the points. And that's exactly what I've done the last two times they've been at home laying the points. Two and O, going to trust the process here. So I do think that this matchup is really interesting. Obviously, you have the fact that they're playing internationally, they're playing in London. So although it's not a traditional home game for the Jacksonville Jaguars, we can and home team home away from home playing yeah the home i get exactly how i wrote in the article man the home away from home so before everyone gets the pitchforks out be like erickson this isn't a home game honestly it might be more of a home game than in duval because they've been doing construction down there and at the patriots jacksonville game there were more patriots fans than jaguars fans so either way i want to be backing the market here because how good jacksonville's been against the spread when they have been favorites and then when they've been at home so they have the best home record against the spread since liam cohen became the head coach they're the best against the spread record as a favorite nine and two over that span six and one against the spread as a home favorite nine and three against the spread straight up at home under liam cohen since the start 2025 including the postseason and they're two and oh at home in 2026 both against the spread and straight up with two blowout victories over the cleveland browns which we bet in week one over the new England patriots we bet in week three so these odd weeks for me betting on the jacks to blow out the opposing team it seems like it's working for me here so set that's the movie that i like here and we talked about it on the early look ahead show myself and worm how this line has really moved a lot so it's possible that some of you watching may have gone in on jackson a little bit earlier when the line was jags minus four and a half which which is like really really nice obviously the line has moved significantly here but i just i want to back the jacksonville jaguars here man they've just been so good in terms of winning games in different types of ways so even if the offense didn't fire last week against the bangles the defense really stepped up they're one of the best red zone defenses in the nfl second to only the minnesota vikings so with the way that this philadelphia eagles offense is operating where it's i mean inoperable is probably the best way to describe it broken cheeks buns however you want to describe it that's really been philadelphia's not opposite of whatever claim to fame is because it's just been absolutely terrible for them they are actually seven point underdogs for the first time since 2021 wow you know what also happened with the eagles for the first time and at least that's how it looks so far this year they are oh and four against the spread they continue to spiral they're five and eleven against the spread after a loss since 2023 so this isn't a team that oh they're gonna bounce back here no that has not really been the case with philadelphia they actually just continue to lose games and lose games in dramatic fashion that's the worst mark in the nfl five and eleven against the spread after a loss and then just one of the big points again there's a lot of metrics i could point out about how bad the offense is what the loss of lane johnson is it's just all bad for philadelphia so the fact that they're facing a really good team in my opinion with the jacksonville jaguars that's the side of the car that i want to be on even though the number is big and has been moving in favor of jacksonville i mean not many people are going to be betting on the eagles this week and that does kind of scare me to a little bit where it's like man this public team like everyone is on the jaguars but but i think i think it's all for the right reasons man like do you want to bet on the eagles like like i just i don't it's just like it's just like it's just like it's just especially without lane johnson again the the big stat here so according to bill barnwell since 2013 across all eagles quarterbacks in their qbrs when lane johnson's on the field versus off the field third best when they have the right tackle and 29th when they don't have their left their their starting tackle so i also think the eagles defense has kind of been overrated this season to bottom 10 epa play play aloud bottom 10 epa per pass attempt face six worse and epa per rush faced and that's been facing the anderson titans bears and rams like not exactly the top 10 offenses every single week so i think their defense has been overrated i think the jags defense is underrated and i just think that this is a prime spot for jacksonville in an island game for all eyes to be on them and for them to be like yeah we are super bowl contenders and to beat up on a banged up eagles team that's probably not going to have saquon barkley not going to have lane johnson not going to have davante smith the list goes on and on man so uh you're gonna push back you want you want to go go birds no i'm
Speaker 3right on that and uh you know excited to see my uncle this weekend because he is a diehard philadelphia eagles fan and i can't imagine how he's feeling in this entire fan base and organization right you lose just a stalwart you've had a tackle for the better part of a decade now right in lane johnson and same week you trade away cam jurgens right uh a guy who was supposed to be that next great interior offensive lineman for the eagles it didn't work out they sent him out for uh you know to recuperate some picks there it's just not great and you may not be able to do that but you're like not only no saquon barkley no tank bigsby in this game that's gonna leave will shipley a guy who had a good run at Clemson three or four years ago, but it's been some time since we've seen him really handle the bulk of the work. We've never seen it in the NFL. They're calling up a couple of practice squad running backs to help him, and it doesn't help him at any means that he's going up against a Jaguars defense that has just been awesome against opposing running backs on the ground. So, no, it's a big number that I'm not going to lay that, right? If I could get the six and a half, maybe I would toy around with it. But, you know, you've been the Jaguars whisperer so far. Instead of the Lion King, you're the Jaguar King here this season, Andrew. So I completely understand the play there. Let's go away from the Jungle Cats and go to another king of the forest here, the Chicago Bears versus the Green Bay Packers. What play do you have in this game?
Speaker 4I am taking the Green Bay Packers at home as divisional underdogs. Again, this is a process play, Seth. You bet on divisional home underdogs. We have three divisional matchups this week that feature home underdogs. One of them is the Packers. One of them is the Chargers. One of them is the Titans. One of these teams is going to win outright. Like, that's just how this works. Do you want to bet on the Chargers or Titans who haven't won a game yet this season? No. No, I'm done with both of those teams.
Speaker 3Yeah, I can't do it.
Speaker 4So that, by default, leaves the Green Bay Packers as the best home underdog play left on the Week 5 card. They've actually won a game this season. They're playing their second game at home because they've actually played the majority of their games on the road this season. So I think that is warping our perception of the Green Bay Packers just a little bit, that they have a bad offensive line. There's no debating that. But that gets overemphasized when bad offensive line has to go on the road, right? You see there's a compounding effect because bad offensive lines don't travel. So that's why it's been such a big problem for the Green Bay Packers. Now, I'm not saying that, oh, they're going to turn things around again. They did play one home game already this year, and they got boat raced by the Atlanta Falcons. That's still very much in the range of outcomes here. But, dude, so far this year, home underdogs 14-8-1 against the spread. Like, this is something that we know intuitively. Like, this is usually a good bet to make, despite the fact of why the number is this way. Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 against the spread, 4-1 straight up. Divisional underdogs overall, 10-2 against the spread so far this season. This is a printing press. This is the bet that you like to make because it just works more often than not. So I understand that Green Bay specifically has been buns against the spread, 0-9-1 over the last 10 games. Depending on what number you got last week, you're going to have to look at what number you're going to get this week. I think it was a push, I think, based on what it finally closed at, at three points. Okay. But there were situations last week where the Packers had two drives deep in the Bucs territory where they could have converted for touchdowns, but Caleb Johnson had a fumble, and then Jordan Love threw an interception, I think, from the 26-yard line. So although that game was a three-point margin in the end, the Green Bay Packers could have easily won by 10 points had they not turned the ball over deep and deep. So I think that looking at this matchup, Green Bay has won nine of its last 10 home games against Chicago Bears. Chicago's 1-6 against spread in Green Bay in the last seven matchups. And the Bears have been much better covering the spread at home than on the road. Still both positive. Again, Ben Johnson has been one of the better coaches to bet on as a head coach in his tenure with Chicago Bears. 14-7-1 against the spread since 2004 in Chicago. 9-3-1 at home. That's why I like the Bears a lot. Last week when they were catching, or excuse me, laying just some of the points against the New York Jets, but on the road, not nearly as profitable. 6-4 against the spread, although 2-0 against the spread as a road favorite. So again, not to say that the Bears can't win this game. They are favorites, but when I'm putting an opportunity where I can bet on the, in my opinion, the better quarterback who's catching points at home in a divisional matchup against a team that's starting a backup quarterback who could have thrown close to three interceptions last week had it not been for erasers, race penalties by the New York Jets, I just think that this is the right play to make and the right side to be on regardless of the outcome. I think that just looking at this matchup based on my analysis, I think this is the sharp side to be on. So I'm going to be back in the pack here. And yeah, there we go. Because I'm also not convinced that this Bears defense has suddenly become like this elite unit. Looks good in the last couple of weeks. Yeah. But again, the context behind how they have performed against these teams. The Vikings, Carson Wentz was the quarterback. It was bad weather. Yeah. Eagles. We just talked about how broken this offense is already. And then the Jets ran 32 offensive plays. So of course your defense is going to look good when the offense never has the football. So the Packers beat the Bears last year at home by seven points at six and a point half favorites. And the last three matchups between the Bears and Packers can they place three times last year, including the postseason home team one and covered. So that's the side I want to be on. And Malaflor 61% against the spread as a underdog among head coaches that have played in the past. And I played at least two seasons or have been a coach for two seasons. Yeah. Tied for the best in the NFL with Houston's D'Amico Ryan. So bet on Jordan Love as an underdog, bet on Matt LaFleur as an underdog at home. Give me the pack.
Speaker 3Yeah. You're slowly talking me into this one because the Bears have been a wagon, but I honestly think them rolling out Tyson Bajent last week and moving forward here over Case Keenum coming off that big primetime win is a little bit of a mistake. And I've been a Tyson Bajent fan. This is a guy who, you know, when he was out there at D2 Shepherd, he was taken down. My IUP Crimson Hawks in the D2 Final Four game, right? I mean, I've seen this guy whip up on some of the best in D2. It's been great to see his journey here to the professional level. That said, though, there were some really, really shoddy plays, really bad throws in that game. He could have been turned over way more than the box score indicates as well. So I do agree with that. And like Kyle Manon guys banged up a little bit here. We know the Packers been very susceptible to the run. So the Packers have been very susceptible to the run. The Bears are going to try to do pretty much the same thing they did last week at the Jets. They're going to try to run it down your throat. They're going to play bully ball. They're going to control time possession in this game. If the Packers run defense can stop them, that I think is going to be the difference in this game. But catching points in Lambeau with a Packers team that, look, I'm still in on this team. I think they get Micah Parsons back in a couple of weeks. They can sure up this defense. I still have a ticket floating around right now. Not great odds compared to what's out there. But I think it's like minus 125 I have for them to make the playoffs. So I wouldn't be upset. And by any means, if they did get a win here over the Chicago Bears, we're going to get some more plays. But before we do, I want to tell you all about the betting pros smart money tool where you can start betting smarter with this new tool from BP right now. You can see where sharp money is flowing in from prediction markets compared with sportsbook odds and uncover potentially mispriced lines, follow the action and find the same bets often at a better price at bettingpros.com slash smart. Start winning more bets today at bettingpros.com slash smart. Andrew, let's go to some totals here where my first click of the week was a super simple one. I am taking the under San Francisco 49ers versus Seattle Seahawks under 47 and a half points minus 120. I would like to say that this has moved significantly since then. If you can find a boost to try to get this total up and take the under, or if you just want to lay it where it's sitting right now between 44 and a half, 45 and a half. I don't hate that either. But look, this has been one of the good spots for us on the program this year. Erickson, I've given out two unders and they, they both hit and again, those were much grosser offenses, right? The Vikings, the dolphins last week. And then I was on, on the jets Titans under in week one. However, these are both top eight passing defenses here. The Seahawks themselves are allowing the second fewest passing yards per game. And they also have the most interceptions in the league with six. They looked like a really good defense last couple of weeks with Nick even worried back. I mean, this guy's blowing out tackles out of their shoes right now. And he's a dang safety. And also the one area that the 49ers, I've been super susceptible to this year. It's their running defense, right? But the Seahawks right now, they're so thin at running back that I don't really think it matters, right? I mean, they were trying to get Joe Mixon off the street before he failed a physical this week and their bottom four in rushing first down percentage and bottom half in yards per carry at 3.9 as well. So the Seattle Seahawks really struggling here to move the ball on the ground like they did a year ago. Maybe part of that is the scheme change with Kubiak. I think part of that, those they just don't have the bodies right back there. They're relying on Emmanuel Wilson, shadow George Helani as well. But until Zach Charbonnet gets back until Jadarian Price gets back, I think they'll continue to struggle to run the ball. And plus Mike McDonald, this guy's always had Kyle Shanahan's number, man, at least in the last four games between them, they have limited San Francisco to an average of 9.8 points per game. And most importantly, these are two teams that run at the slowest pace in the NFL. The Seahawks, they are 28th in play clock use per play. They've run no huddle only 2% of the time this year. The 49ers 31st and no huddle. They do not run no huddle at all. They haven't really had to because they've been in negative scripts, but still they're 17th in play clock use. So I'm on an under here in a divisional matchup out there on the West Coast, Erickson. Yeah,
Speaker 4definitely a big number there at 47 and a half points, which you typically don't see any time. There's a defense like the Seattle Seahawks. Obviously the concern is you run into, is it a Dallas Cowboys Texan type of game where last week in the primer, again, it's totally wrong. I wrote just briefly. It wasn't my, official plays, but one of my leans was I just can't bet the over in a game featuring the Houston Texans at 48 and a half points, right? I just process wise. That would not work for me. Obviously that was wrong because the Dallas Cowboys ended up scoring a ton of points and the Dallas defense is terrible. So that's why the Texas Texans defense ain't
Speaker 3looking much better right now, man. That secondary is bad,
Speaker 4but this matchup here against divisional foes. One thing that I would point out, that would be the counter argument. Last four divisional home games for the Seahawks have all gone over dating back to 2021. But that being said, that's usually with the context that the numbers are much – smaller than a 47.5 point total, which is what you're getting here. So I think just based on the number, this is the best side to be on.
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Speaker 3Okay. And Erickson, you're going to keep that undertaker mentality going, even in a wedding-filled weekend where the over on alcoholic beverages might be hitting.
Speaker 4Going with the Denver Broncos, going to the Los Angeles Chargers is going to be a first half under 21 and a half points at minus 115. The Broncos, spoiler, have the worst first half offense in the NFL. If you've been hiding under a rock, haven't watched any football, the Broncos offense doesn't show up until the second half. They have scored one touchdown in the first half. They have scored one touchdown in the first half in four games this season. They're dead last in terms of just total first half points. The Chargers also, classic dumpster fire team. We just talked about them being 0-4. They have averaged just 7.5 first half points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. So although we're getting dome settings, which is always a recipe for okay, fast-paced offenses, explosive plays, I just don't think that we're going to see that unless we see something totally different from what we've seen through the first four weeks with these two teams. And considering both of them still have the same offensive play colors, it's not Sean Payton, it's still Mike McDaniel. We'll see how long Mike McDaniel lasts as the offensive coordinator. Under-over, Seth, before I finish up my analysis, they're over-under Mike McDaniel still being the OC by the time Halloween comes
Speaker 3around. Oh, man. Oh, geez. Jim Harbaugh is a very stubborn man. He really trusts his decisions. That said, though, the schedule is not getting easier, dude. I'm going to take, I think I'm going to have to take the under. I don't think he's there until Halloween. I think it's a candy-less Halloween holiday out there for the Chargers and Mike McDaniel.
Speaker 4Yeah. And it's not going to get easier for this Chargers offense because considering they were already bottom of the league in first half points per game, that was when they had their two starting tackles. Now, Sean Slater is already going to be out with a high ankle sprain. Joe Alt has already been ruled out of this game with a neck injury. He's not expected to be out as long as Slater is, but for this particular matchup, those guys are not going to be there. And we saw last year how this offense turned into when they lost their two starting tackles. And now it's rinse and repeat. Once again, Lama Conky also banged up with a foot injury. We don't know if he's going to play. So although the counter argument is, well, Erickson, the Broncos are going to be out without Sertan. Riley Moss is also banged up their two starting cornerbacks. To me, the coverage matters less if Justin Herbert doesn't have time to throw. If he is getting pressure every single drop back, then it doesn't matter who they have out there at defensive back covering some of these receivers. Also, it's Trey Harrison, Quinton Johnston. Like these are the guys. I mean, Quinton Johnston can be wide open and he can still drop the ball. So I'm in a scenario and situation here where I just love the under here. And I do think to give some credit to the Chargers, who offensively have obviously been super underwhelming, their defense actually played halfway decent last week. And they've actually played a little bit better over the last two games, despite facing the Buffalo Bills and the Seattle Seahawks. In week four against Seattle, they finished eighth in EPA per play allowed, 10th in yards per play, and actually generated the third highest quarterback pressure rate on the week. Seattle was 3-for-12 on third downs against this Chargers defense. So I think the Chargers defense is actually starting to turn the corner just a little bit, but nobody cares because just everything's about how bad the offense has been with Herbert and Mike McDaniel. But on the season, the Chargers rank seventh in pressure rate. And what do we know about Bo Nix? Dude, if this guy gets rattled under pressure, like he is not completing passes and he is just going to be checked down city to RJ Harvey. So both defenses rank top 12 in regular conversion rate. So even if they're able to move the ball down the field, I'm expecting more of these drives to stall. With field goals. And the Chargers are also probably the worst offense the Broncos defense has faced this season because they've had a really brutal schedule to start the year to Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams and the 49ers. Only one of those games has surpassed 41 total points scored. So both teams are one in three towards the over the season. Both teams are 0-2 towards the total in their respective roles this week as home or road teams. And last time these teams played in two thousand twenty five in both matchups, the total flew under in both games. One of them closed at forty two and a half total flew under. And then the first matchup played in L.A. Final score was twenty three to twenty. So technically that would have gone over this number here in terms of the total of the entire game. But still, it went over the projected total that closed at forty forty five and a half points. So league wide unders are hitting if they close at forty two or less at eight and five. So I think that the fact that this number is already so low. I like the first half under because of the angle with how bad the Broncos have been at generating points early on. But honestly, I think you can get the game total under two. I just think that I prefer the first half.
Speaker 3Yeah, I'll tell you what, I'm really happy to hear some of those metrics you threw out for the Chargers defense improving. Jim Harbaugh this summer took a huge swing when he went out and signed Chris O'Leary to coach up this defense. Western Michigan guy. And I'm a Mac apologist. And this really was one of the best defenses we saw in the Mid-American Conference a year ago. It's a big jump, right? Going from G6 level football to the NFL. I think we've seen that so far play out on the field with some players just being out of position early in the season. But I appreciate that they are starting to turn the corner here. And Chris O'Leary potentially Chris O'Leary or Mike McDaniels, who do you think holds on to the job? I would say O'Leary at this point, right?
Speaker 4Yeah, I mean, he's not as an established type of person. You have to consider this is his first time calling defenses at the defensive corner. I don't think it's I mean, again, I just outline I don't think it's really the Chargers defense. That's the reason why this team is such a big disappointment. Yeah, everything was about how this offense is going to take a major step forward with Mike McDaniel, the all hype team right next to the Chicago Bears. And it's obviously been a major big disappointment just the way that these guys have been used. The personnel has been super underwhelming. And now you're adding injuries into the fold, man. Yeah, Mike McDaniel really feels like dead man walking.
Speaker 3Yeah. And you're someone who needs to win some money back on the Chargers since you were pretty decently invested with them in the futures market. So it was comical
Speaker 4what the cash out option was on the over on their window. But like I do, I'll be honest, like, once Tyler be honest, went down. Yeah. And I was like, I got to pull back a little bit here. Like, because that because that was like one thing that was like, it was a it was a signal and red flag for me. And like, okay, man, like, it's not perfect anymore. We've already got one. And then obviously, it's just been like, compounding effect going down.
Speaker 3Yeah, absolutely. Andrew, we're gonna get to my upset special of the week. But before we do, you actually have one more play that can also qualify as an upset special.
Speaker 4Oh, yeah, yes. Give me the Buffalo Bills straight on the money line against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night football. Going back to process plays, If you're going to give me Josh Allen as an underdog, I'm going to take him all day, every day. In his career, Josh Allen, 59% career record against the spread as an underdog. When you get the chance to bet on an elite MVP caliber quarterback, when you can also get points in a game that should be back and forth in a shootout, this is just an autoplay for me. The Bills last year, three and one as underdogs against the spread and straight up. So primetime underdogs so far this season, eight, three and one against the spread. This is the side that you want to be on, not with the Los Angeles Rams. Buffalo has been profitable to bet on all year long, three and one straight up and against spread because their offense has been scoring nearly 32 points per game. And I was on the right side last week with betting on the Patriots. You know, they covered in one outright because that particular matchup was good for Patriot. Like the Patriots hadn't shown that they go to Buffalo and they play really, really well. And this was not a good matchup for the Buffalo Bills. So I'm not reading into that in any way, shape or form. I think the Bills get totally back to form here against the LSU. Rams, who I think, yeah, entered the year as a Super Bowl favorites through four games. Are you convinced? Like, yeah, like this team is like legit.
Speaker 3Matthew Stafford has regressed this season and I don't think there's any burying that.
Speaker 4So I think that Georgetown is playing at a much higher level, I would say, with the Rams not to bury them in any way. I think it's been up and down for them. Like you've seen the high highs from them at points this season, but you've also seen some like low lows. So I think they've been a little bit more inconsistent than the Buffalo Bills have been. And Buffalo, too, to their credit, they have rebounded in big ways after big losses. So if you look at their last six games that they've lost following those games, they've scored 35, 35, 26, 44, 14 and 40 points over 32 points per game following their last losses since 2024. Buffalo seven and two against the spread and straight up after a loss. So nobody really bounces back bigger than Josh Allen in this offense, especially with the way that Joe Brady really took the not the credit, but he took the responsibility of it was my fault that I didn't get Delta Kincaid more involved. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the Bills dropped their first game of the year when they don't use Delta Kincaid at all. When through the first two weeks of the season, the guy looks like an absolute breakout star and as advertised when he was drafted in the first round a couple of years ago. So the Rams were lucky last week to escape with a win against Philadelphia Eagles. They had that fourth quarter rally. Not to say the Eagles deserved to win that game because they got a lot of turnover luck and some special teams luck. But I just think that the Bills are the best team in the world. And I think that's a better team. And when I can get them catching points as an underdog at plus money to just win outright when they're on the quote unquote road. Sure. They actually don't have home field advantage. Like that's another thing too. Anytime you betting on these games being played in Los Angeles, you're getting value with the road team because these LA teams are getting some credit for playing at home. But as we all know, they don't actually have home field. There's gonna be more Bills fans at this game. Like Bills Mafia is going to be representing the Buffalo Bills. Get a little chilly out
Speaker 3there in Western, Western New York. They need, they need nice little sunshine trip, I think.
Speaker 4And the last point to make here, and this is just kind of like a fun little quirk because I do think that this game is going to be a shootout. There's a reason why the total is so, so high. Josh Allen in the dome. He is eight and one career record all time playing indoors, which is why it just pains me that they didn't build a dome in Buffalo. I get that got to the elements. I totally understand that. And it's probably better, but dude, I've noticed this year, watching football this year, how fast teams look when they're playing indoors. Like for example, like the new Orleans saints, the Atlanta Falcons. Like when you watch these teams play inside, you're like, man, why does everyone look so fast? Yeah. And I think you're gonna see that amplified to another level with Josh Allen playing in the dome. Again, if you look at all of his numbers too, all of his passing metrics are all better on a per game basis when he plays inside. So give me Josh Allen in the dome as an underdog. Auto play for me.
Speaker 3Yeah. It's funny. I feel similar. Like, and while the bills don't have a dome, they have like, the, whatever you call it, like the half dome or, or, you know, the open air. And, um, I actually think those are the sweetest stadiums. Uh, we just saw Ryan field be open for Northwestern football, uh, last Friday night, college football, my Penn state Nittany lines blown out because like those Northwestern wildcats were just running all over us. They looked pretty quick too on that indoor, uh, you know, indoor stadium. The thing I think about the Rams though, is like, there's a realistic shot where they are one in three coming into this weekend, right? They had to rally late against the Giants when Jackson dart went out in that game and they had cold James Winston coming off the bench. So it hasn't been overly impressive for the Ram so far this season. And I like your play because I think you're getting invested with the best side of either team in this game. Like the best unit offense of, or defensively is the bills offense right now. Their defense. I don't trust at all either. Um, and I think your play last week on the Patriots was super sharp. I wish I would have hit the money line for the upset special is something I considered, but I don't trust the Rams to be a peak performance in this game. I think there'll be better because how lackluster the bills defense is, but that Rams defense is also not into, uh, you know, where we thought they'd be at this time of year. If you're invested in the Rams from a future standpoint, are you nervous? Or do you think maybe this actually opens up a buying window in a couple of weeks here? Um, especially after this game, if they do lose to the
Speaker 4bills, that's an interesting question. I don't know. Cause I wasn't super invested in the Rams as a Superbowl favorite. I don't think I've ever been. Cause I think that the track record is whoever enters the year as a Superbowl favorite never actually wins the Superbowl. Yeah. It's it's, it's like we get why they're ranked that highly, but to the point like Stafford was a player I was fading in fantasy circles. Cause I knew that his touchdown rate was going to regress. And so far that's kind of been the case. Not to say that he hasn't looked the part at points this season. Like he's looked like the old Matthew Stafford at some points this season, but he's also then also kind of shown his age at some points with more turnovers than he had last season. So I think I'm cool. Just not, not investing in the Rams. I think that there are other teams I'd rather invest some long-term dollars into when it comes to Superbowl futures.
Speaker 3Okay. Yeah. I might consider if they do drop another one here, I'm just curious what those odds will get up to. Eventually they will get miles Garrett back. Hopefully we see Aaron Donald at full strength as well. And Matthew Stafford starts rounding into form as the season progresses here for my upset special of the week. Give me the new Orleans saints on the money line plus one 22 versus the Vikings. And this is just another fate of Kyler Murray, man. Quarterback right now for the Vikings. He's averaged just 182.5 passing yards per game since returning from injury. Justin Jefferson might be back this week, but now we have Jordan Addison also on the injury report here as we sit midweek and the saints have been losing games mainly because their run defense cannot stop a cold right now. However, I'm not really concerned about that. We only have old man, Aaron Jones in the backfield here. And it was the previous two weeks. Like he faced Bijan Robinson and the boys, he faced Ashton Gentry the week before and like Tyler Shuck is still spinning it. Right. Like still absolutely spinning it, still bringing it here, averaging 300 yards, uh, per passing, uh, passing yards per game right now, completing passes at a 67.2% clip. And I get it that the Vikings are one of the better defenses in the league right now. We're going to see some exotics from beef flow, but I think Tyler Shuck, this is not a boy. This is not Malik Willis. This is not Jalen Daniels. Tyler Shuck is a 27 year old man. He has seen some things out there from his time across the college football landscape and now here in the NFL. So I think he'll be able to stand in the pocket and deliver, uh, and, and hopefully the Vikings get their first loss of the season. They, they got to lose at some point, man. They're not a good enough team to, I think, to get to five and oh, so it's a do or die spot here for Kellen Moore, man. They cannot go and continue to, you know, pick up losses here and go to one and four. So it's a do or die spot for Kellen Moore and the man himself, Tyler Shuck.
Speaker 4The Saints are at home, right? These are home underdogs. So yeah, I mean, that, that makes sense to me to be on that side of it. It's a do when Brian Flores dials up an 80% blitz rate. And so far this year, from what I remember reading the next gen stats, it's Shuck is in total Shuck it mode when he gets blitzed because he has like the highest air yards per attempt whenever he's blitzed. So it's not, it's actually not like a downfield baby. It's Chris Olave making some crazy catch. There's somebody down there. I'm just going to chuck the ball, which I think that's what you have to be because I think that if you're the Saints, you have to just kind of bank on, okay, their offense isn't that great. We got to take some risk offensively here. So even if we do turn the ball over a couple of times, I don't think that the Vikings offense may be able to capitalize on those types of mistakes. And we know that Brian Flores, as good as his defense is and exotic as these blitzes and packages that he sends to opposing quarterbacks, you got to take chances, man, because sometimes you give up a blitz and then you give up a big play. We saw that last Chris Bell. He would have had a big play. Had he not stepped out of bounds, like Brian Flores can get burned sometimes whenever you're doing these blitz. Trust me, I know as someone that just frigging hits engage eight every single time I play mad and I get constantly if my blitz doesn't hit my, my blitz doesn't get to that quarterback. So I think with the Saints too, and how often they pass the ball, they can't run the football at all. I don't think they're even going to try. Yeah. Tyler Shuck. Do you have any past attempts? Tyler Shuck has this year, Seth? I think
Speaker 3he's leading the NFL in it, isn't it?
Speaker 4Leads the NFL with 180 pass attempts.
Speaker 3I was going to say, I think it was 175 or North. Okay. Yeah. That's crazy.
Speaker 4It's a lot. And I get like, obviously he's boosted a little bit from the first game in overtime, but dude, every week it's like 40 dropbacks to throw for Tyler Shuck. So that gives you a chance. And I believe too, this was in the primer that I wrote up this week. I think that all of their games, their wins have been by one, like less than 13 points. So they're not a team that blows things out. So this bet, in my opinion, is going to be live the entire game, no matter what happens. So entering the fourth quarter, it's like, we got a shot, baby. Like we got a chance. So I think that this is a good call here.
Speaker 3Yeah. If they can, you know, whether that's figuring out more ways to get the running backs involved and get them going this week, or whether it's just relying on Tyler Schuck. That's what we're going to need here to get this one to the window. How about a parlay of the week as well? I got a three-legger paying out at plus 245 in leg one. Give me the Amon Ross, St. Brown, anytime touchdown, minus 145. I'm also taking ARSB over 78 and a half receiving yards in leg two at minus 114. And then for good measures, go ahead and give me Michael Wilson over 72 and a half receiving yards as well, also at minus 114. And I just want to target a game with the highest total on the slate, right? And arguably two of the worst secondaries in the league. Arizona has allowed the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on the season. Every single number one wide receiver they faced has scored against them. Ladd McConkie in week one, JSN, how about three bills for you? They're in week three or week two. And then Mike Evans comes out, even in an unlimited game where he left with injury, still scored a touchdown in week three. And Malik Neighbors responded great last week. And look, man, it gives me absolute no pain that is a former Ohio State Buckeye cornerback, Denzel Burke. He's the one who's getting cooked out there right now for the Cardinals. And you look at Amon Ross St. Brown. This is a guy who's already scored five touchdowns this season, all in the first three games. He has the most red zone targets among wide receivers with 12. And he also has a 34.6% target share inside the 20. And while he's only hit this receiving prop twice so far this season, they have given it up to three of the four same wide receivers I mentioned earlier. Mike Evans is the only one who did not clear this total. But again, he was hurt in that game. He had 56 yards. Before he went out with the injury, Debo Samuel did clear it though. So subbing in Debo Samuel's line for Mike Evans line, number one wide receivers are averaging 170 yards per game against Arizona this season. And in regards to Michael Wilson, I heard you guys talk about it earlier this week on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. And like, there's no doubt anymore. This is the Cardinals number one wide receiver, right? He has drawn an insane 30 targets over the past two weeks. Like we are seeing these type of target share numbers for him last year, but it was when Marv was out, right? Marv doesn't matter now, right? And I'm trusting a guy who has averaged 92 yards in that game span between week three and week four. And wide receiver ones have averaged a crazy 136 yards per game against this banged up line secondary that included last week when Tedderall McMillan, 192 yards in that game. And dude, it was unstoppable. Like every RPO was open for Tedderall McMillan. So why are they going to do anything differently here in Arizona? So here's to a couple of stud wide outs having a day out there in the desert.
Speaker 4I just wish. This game was being played at Ford Field because then it would definitely be on the card as the over. Not that it seems like it'll make really that much of a difference because it's also being played indoors in a dome on the West Coast. So I think, yeah, this game is going to be a ton of fun, a ton of points. I'm surprised that you don't have any Trey McBride though on here
Speaker 3because I got burned last week with the tight end play against the Lions. So I had to go away from it, but it sets up great for him too. I think he, if I was going to take him, I'd probably go with his receptions. I think that would be the play just because he, we know he's going to get targeted as well.
Speaker 4Yeah. That's why. I have so much confidence that Jacoby Brissett's going to have a productive game because Trey McBride is his guy. And this is the best matchup that you could possibly ask for for a tight end. And then when you put arguably the best tight end, if not, you know, one of the top two tight ends in this particular matchup, like how does Trey McBride, especially after getting chewed out last week by the frigging refs, dude. Oh, that's crazy.
Speaker 3Trey McBride. I can understand if like you want to like, if that was like Antonio Brown or someone who's like being a jerk to the refs and like, just, just people in general, but like Trey McBride seems like a pretty calm and tempered guy, dude. Just me getting cussed out like that was crazy.
Speaker 4Yeah, dude. So he's going to find the end zone. If not once, multiple times. Yeah.
Speaker 3That might be a good play too. Probably against the Detroit lions.
Speaker 4So that game should be a lot of fun. We're going to continue to roll over the Jameer Gibbs. Anytime touchdown weeks in a row. I will not be on the prop show this week. We have some fill-ins because Welsh and I are going to be away, but we will have some props for everybody. And yes, I will also have some props in my betting pros primer, along with all the official plays, but yeah, Seth, this is going to be a, another fun week of week five, man. I'm excited.
Speaker 3Yeah. Let's fire it up here. And let's also fire up our poly market predictions of the week. Let's take a look at some of the NFL markets on poly market and tell you where we stand. Erickson, what is your poly market prediction of the week?
Speaker 4Mine is going to be the Denver Broncos against the Los Angeles chargers under 21 and a half total points in the first half trading at 53%. Already outlined it as one of my favorite plays for this week. And that's because Broncos have the, the worst first half offense in the NFL. They've scored one touchdown in the first half in four games. The season, the chargers have not been that much better 7.5, first half points per game. That ranks 27th. Then you consider that the charge is going to be out there to starting tackles. I think that this game is a total slog, especially in the first half where the Broncos can't get out of their own way. So charge defense has also played a little bit better. They are seventh in pressure rate this season. Both defense has also ranked top 12 in red zone conversion rate. So even if there are opportunities, opportunities where the teams drive down the field that generate an explosive play to get in the red zone, I'm expecting most of those red zone drives to stall out and turn into field goals leading to a first half under.
Speaker 3Okay. And for my poly market prediction of the week, give me Deandre Swift over 13 and a half rushing attempts trading at 55%. I think with or without common on guy in this game, the bears are going, I told you earlier, I think they're going to continue to do what they've done well this season. And that's run the ball limit time possession for their opponent, especially with Tyson Bajan, under center. I think you have to do that. You have to keep him, you know, having some of those turnover worthy plays limited. And I think that's their plan against the Packers team. That's allowed the third most rushing yards per game, two opposing backs at 114 and Swift has averaged 77.8 yards on 17.3 attempts per game this season. And a running back has cleared this mark in every single game against the Packers, their top rusher, the opponents against the Packers averaging 19 carries per game. I know he got on the shelf last week after, you know, coming into the week on the injury report, fun, moving early in the second half, but I think he's going to go out, have a rebound type of game. He got two touchdowns called back. They were called touchdowns on the field. It was so frustrating. And then even, you know, worse for traders and fancy managers in the second half. Then he loses that ball. He doesn't see the field again. So I think whether Menon guy is going or not in this one, I think the former Georgia Bulldog on a big weekend down there for the dogs goes over 13 and a half rushing temps for my poly market prediction of the week. No thought, no thoughts on a, on an old Swifty. You think that's the bounce back for him?
Speaker 4Well, I think that Swift also is on the injury report too this week.
Speaker 3Yeah, but he was last week too. It was like a rest day in the middle of the week. So I, I can't, I'm not, I'm not reading too much into that.
Speaker 4We shall see who the bears RB one is in week five when they lose to the
Speaker 3Packers. Okay. All right. A little foreshadowing there from Andrew Erickson. Those are our poly market predictions of the week. And if you want to make your own predictions, sign up at poly market.us. With promo code F P pod. Again, that's promo code F P pod deposit $10 and receive a $25 bonus on your first trade Erickson. Before we get out of here, let's recap our cards for week five in the NFL. For me, I'm going with the 49ers and Seahawks under 47 and a half points at minus one 20 odds on the upset special of the week. The saints on the money line plus one 22 against the Vikings. And that parlay of the week plus two 45, a Monroe St. Brown, anytime touchdown, a Monroe St. Brown over 78 and a half receiving yards. And, and Michael Wilson over 72 and a half receiving yards and the poly market prediction of the week Swift over 13 and a half rushing attempts trading at 55%. Andrew, what's on your week five NFL betting card.
Speaker 4Taking the London Jaguars laying seven points against the Philadelphia Eagles going to take the green Bay Packers plus two and a half and sprinkle a little bit on the money line against the Chicago bears at home. Going to take the Buffalo bills on the money line, right for the jugular against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night football. And as my, my final play by Paulie market prediction of the week, I'm going to be taking the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles chargers finishing under 21 and a half points in the first half.
Speaker 3Okay. Well, there you have it folks. That's going to do it for us right here on this best bets episode of the betting pros NFL podcast. Let us know your favorite week five picks in the comments below. We want to hear from you and please be sure to give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it. And don't forget, subscribe to the channel if you're new and download the free betting pros app today for Andrew Erickson. I'm Seth Wilcock. Thanks for watching and take care of y'all.
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