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Speaker 7Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 8Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing?
Speaker 7Betting is so fun, funny, stupid. On Sunday night, we are recording this show. And, brother, we are in agony. We are in agony. Because we have barely escaped going 0-4. We needed the miracle two-point conversion from old man Kirk Cousins to get the Raiders to cover against the Chiefs for our lone win on Sunday. We are 1-3 heading into Monday night. We have Atlanta, and they cover no problem. And then if you look at the games, and you pointed this out, so I am not telling you anything. You don't know. You don't know. Like, you got to stay even, because if you look at the three losses in context of the whole week, we are just as close to being 3-2 with the Broncos covering, or we are just as close to being 1-4 with the Raiders not getting the two-point spread. So it's like, you can't win for trying, man.
Speaker 8Yeah. It's hard. Yeah. It's hard. It's a hard job. I've never made light of that. But sometimes it's really easy, and I think that's the hardest part. Last night it was easy. Yeah. Even the Panthers were easy. So it's. Panthers were easy. There's easy wins out there, Chad. Can you find those easy wins, my friend? And right now, we're having a tough time finding them and putting them in the contest. So, yeah, it sucks. The contest is really tough, but at the same time, just stick to it, and the results will play out as they should. Which is a winning record for us. So, yeah, it's tough not to win on Sunday, but it's also like, okay, kind of got to go over and move on. That's the whole point of this business. So yeah, I'm only as good and as bad as my last bets, and right now I'm 2-0 on my last two bets, Chad. Well, it's funny you point that
Speaker 7out, because I know you don't like to look at the comments, but I do dig into the comments on YouTube and on Twitter, and we're very lucky. You and I and Matt Mitchell have been doing great. Yeah. Yeah. We've been doing the show together for a long time. And because we've usually won, we have some goodwill built up here. And a lot of listeners pointed out in all the comments that we used to actually do a better job of track. Back in the action days, we used to do a better job of tracking everything we liked. So we might have had a place where we had logged Miami and the Bears. Yeah. And Carolina. And so we probably need to figure out a way to do that, because even our commenters are like, "Dudes, you're giving out games that you like, you're just not putting them in the contest. Why aren't you doing a better job of tracking all of that?" So we can discuss how we can better illuminate when we are on the easy wins instead of the choices that get so hard in the final five on Sunday. And let the record show, people.
Speaker 8You guys can say whatever you want to. I literally do not care. Chad cares clearly about your comments. He reads it all though. I don't care. If I see your comment, I read it. More power to you. I don't read everything because I get so much information, but I truly do not care. This is a free contest and I give out free picks. And as gentle as I can say this, I make more on a Sunday than I do for this entire year doing this show. So I do care. I do care about this show. I care about the info I give out, but it's like, you're never going to hurt my feelings. I promise you. So you can tear me a new one. I won't care. I won't block you. The only people I block nowadays are people that just plainly lie. Like someone that goes online and says, "I sell them picks." Never charge a single penny to a listener of this show. And someone that, anyone that says that stuff, they're just plainly lying on the internet for clicks. So yeah, I don't mind. You can tear me apart. People listen to the show, they know how hard I work, but yeah, if you want to bash Chad right now, Chad deserves it. I agree with you people. Attack Chad. The thing is I don't
Speaker 7care about getting bashed. I like the comments and the feedback to see how we could potentially improve the show. I've been doing this a long time. I've been getting bashed for a long time. I sleep fine when people are mad at us. I don't sleep well when I feel like we're, the show isn't as good as it can be, or we can make it better. That's what I'm looking for. I ignore negative feedback. You know, I live in a perpetually rosy, optimistic state. So I only take in the good feedback and think, yeah, it's all true. And the bad feedback, I ignore and be like, they don't know what they're talking about.
Speaker 8I take it all in. Like, like I said, if, if someone's saying, calling us out on certain stuff, I will take it to heart. I don't know if you played a Tennessee game yet this year in the contest. I take that stuff to heart people. I do hear your hate for us. I never hate for us taking these bad teams, but, which could be
Speaker 7why we didn't choose Miami last week. Yeah.
Speaker 8Partially. It could be part of it. Like I said, though, brother, if you come in your chat and you want to put any type of game in on Sunday, I've approved it. I'm literally letting you do whatever you want right now. So I think we'll find it. It's just, um, you're, you're not picking the right five and it's tough. It's really tough picking the five for the contest. So we said it, we should be three and two, three different weeks all through those weeks went two and three. So it's like, like I said, I'm, I'm trying not to kill myself on it. Obviously it looks terrible. Matt Mitchell flashes our record, but it's a hard contest. It's you know, a normal contest. You pick five games. The lines are set on Tuesday. These lines aren't set until you pick them whatever day that is. And we can't pick Thursdays. So it's, it's not an easy contest by any measurement. That's why I love doing this show.
Speaker 7You know what else hasn't been easy watching NFL games? there are so many freaking penalties, it destroys your ability to believe in what you're seeing until you've almost gone. onto commercial at the end of a play or a drive. Through four weeks, this is from Warren Sharp, Matt Mitchell sent us this last night. Through four weeks, the most flags thrown in a decade. Through four weeks, we have seen the most red zone penalties per game by offenses in history. We have seen the most penalties on third and fourth downs in the second half of games in history. There have been 17 touchdowns so far this year nullified by penalties. Only five in 2025 at this point. 2024, there were only four. So, you know, we were texting about this last night because it played in our favor. The Saints had a holding penalty on a drive for the Falcons early in the game where they might've had to kick a field goal. They ended up getting a first down on a hold on a defensive back for the Saints at the goal line. They ended up scoring a touchdown. I actually wonder if at some point coaches have to start accounting for this. Offensively, do you go for it more in fourth down because you think that the referee calling a penalty increases your chances of conversion beyond just the play itself? Because it feels like that's an easier place for them to find to call penalties.
Speaker 8That, and I mean, we just had a history. We had two refs get suspended, right? I think I told that yesterday and it's all about how they're acted towards players, which I totally agree with. It's like, I see videos, like there's a video yesterday of this guy in the stands, you know, on a Herbert and said, you're, you're, your wife's better than you are or whatever it was, or like, you're just as bad as your wife. Cause she's super hot, whatever it is. And never in this world where a guy go up to six, five, Justin Herbert on the street and talk shit future wife. Right? So, okay. The fans get away with it because that's the whole point of the sport, right? They're ones paying the money. The referees cursing out players or talking tough to players. Thank God the NFL stepped in. Cause it's like, how delusional are these people? Like so stupid, just because you're wearing a little referee outfit, you think you can talk down and step up in chest, uh, NFL players are Tom to F off. I just, I am so happy. These refs got suspended again in trouble. Cause like you said, it's the ego on some of these refs. And be on camera. And it's like, I just, we need, we need the NFL to step in. Like some of these games are unwatchable. Cause like you said, these refs are doing way too much. I mean, that Jaguars game was unwatchable. Like that Cincinnati game, whatever it was, 10 penalties or 11 penalties on
Speaker 7the Jags in the first
Speaker 8half. Yeah. It's, I mean, it's, you can call it three
Speaker 7touchdowns called off the board.
Speaker 8Like we say all the time, you can call a penalty every time it's there's always holding, there's always something going on. There's always I mean, defenders get tired, especially in the fourth quarter, they're going to grab a little. So it really is tough where I know it's, we try to make this fair as possible and it's all judgment calls. But, um, at some point I think the fans are just going to get so restless with it. So yeah, it's, I think the NFL is definitely gonna see a Warren Sharps tweet and hopefully they do something about it. Just too many, too many penalties, too, too much stoppage, no flow in these games. So yeah, great point by bringing that up.
Speaker 7We're going to have some flow today, brother. This is our Tuesday NFL week five show. You're going to hear our, uh, Chad's choice. Our assignment says try to narrow down some picks for our free, as you pointed out free $25,000 pro football pick them contest. Go sign up sharper square dot the volume.com top finisher getting paid 10 grand. Don't forget you can get the show on sharper square on YouTube. Go subscribe. Like this video where at it, follow us on Insta scribe, sharp square. Okay. Thursday night football, Dallas, Texas, Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys, the resurgent Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. We talked about this game. It was at nine and a half. I loved Tampa at nine and a half. The line has moved in their direction. It's at eight and a half at a lot of books. If you look at polymarket, the line that is sort of highlighted, the trade that is highlighted is seven and a half. Clearly a lot of wise guys came in on Tampa. I think I know why, but do you have thoughts on this?
Speaker 8Is your reason why is because the Dallas defense is terrible. Could be. Yeah. I'll play Dallas here. I just, the, the bucks, I mean, they used up a lot of luck in that game against green bed. They're just, they have an undrafted free agent as their quarterback right now. Like the kid is, it looks exactly as you would assume. This is not the second coming of Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in the seventh round. This is not Tony Roma rebirth. This is a guy as a rookie has not learned any good habits in mind Baker. And now he's thrown into a really tough position and green Bay. I don't think we consider them a playoff team. Incredible cover. I mean, some people got burned, right? Green Bay technically, covered that game. Cause I think they closed as a two and a half point favorite. So bucks last week were a very sharp side. Pros are all over my four and a half old all the way down to three. They're back to the well once again, and I get it right. Dallas defense is so bad. You assume a backdoor, but this usually feels the type of game that Dallas just blows the team out and wins by 20 or 21. So I know people, some people ask me about survivor. I don't really do Thursday survivors cause Tampa could win this game. It's literally a short week. They have no time for prepare. It's basically rest your body, come into a walkthrough on Wednesday and you have a game Thursday. Like that's, there's just so little limited prep this, this week. So, um, if you're asking me if I had to make a pick on, I'll pick Dallas, but I don't feel great about it. I guess Chad's Chad's reasons, right? It's like, this is such a bad defense that could easily be back door. And it's just, I don't know if Tampa has the guys to backdoor this one. And, um, another week, Todd Bowles kept his job. So it's, uh, pretty crazy. Pretty crazy. Pretty crazy right time right now.
Speaker 7Tampa Tampa's defense has also been surprisingly stout. It's mostly against the running game, which is not how you're going to beat Dallas by, by stopping the running game. But it is interesting to me how much this line has moved, uh, from what the opener was at nine and a half. Also look that I thought that game against, against the Packers, if you were on the four, good for you. Jalen Daniels, he threw some bad throws in that game. The Packers are a middling defense. The Cowboys are a really bad defense. So do some of those throws turn into less bad throws because the Cowboys can't defend them in any way that the Packers can maybe, but like you said, you're kind of hoping for the back door here. Sunday morning, Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars from London, 9 30 AM. Jags are now six and a half point favorites. Sign in. Some Philly fans are very upset.
Speaker 9It's bad coaching again. Sirianni blew the game again for the, for the ons most times. Nick is cute. He's angry. He can scream, but what's happening at halftime? Are we eating meatball subs?
Speaker 7Uns most times. He's cute. Yeah. He gave me a
Speaker 8little PTSD though. That, that, I told you that walk was just an awful, awful experience out of that stadium. So I was much more sober than those guys, but I felt the exact same way. Just confused, angry, and it's hard not to blame Sirianni. I mean, they have tons of injuries, but there's just so many good coaches out there. And I've said it from the get-go, I've never viewed him as one of them, but he's always found a way. He's always found a way. Yeah. Like we talk all the time. If you have a bad draft class and you have another bad draft class and you have bad coaching, it doesn't matter who your team is. You can't overcome all these injuries. So the Eagles have been very lucky. They had great draft classes, but the last two years they haven't, they've had to put these guys as starters and they're struggling. So yeah, this line was three and a half. We did Sunday night. It's ballooned up now because there's just so many injuries to this Eagle side. I mean, they're down, I think six of their 11 starters. Um, the guys who are playing just like I've talked about, like Zach Ertz can't start in this league. He's 38 year old man who can't block anymore. And Cam Driggins, the guy who's, you know, was one of their better offensive linemen. They, how he paid him a ton of money. He's like the 84th graded offensive lineman out in football. He just can't block anybody. And, um, it's just been absolutely brutal for this team. So people know, people know what I like to do here. I like to take the favorites and in England, I mean, it worked out last. We got very lucky. It feels like we're going to be able to take the favorites and in England, we're going to be able to take the favorites and in England, we're going to be able to take the favorites and in England, we're going to The more the public is behind that side, the better. So we hope come Sunday, there's a ton of money coming in on this Jaguars team. But as you sit here right now, I assume most people are going to bet this Eagle side. It's just a lot of points for this Eagles team. So I'll be patient. I'll take the six and a half. I'm not gonna put a lot into it, but, um, yeah, I, I just, we talk all the time about the stats. You just, you just supposed to blindly take the favorites in England. And I know the Eagles too are doing the weird travel plan where they're traveling the day before as well. So, um, you know, traveling the day before. playing the game at 9 30 in the morning i don't know how much of a smart idea that is for howie well the jaguars are going to be there for the whole week so yeah it's it's pretty brutal this this eagles team is about to come home and face carolina after their bye week next week potentially at two and three so um yeah it's it's it's rough right
Speaker 7now in philadelphia uh jalen hurts got blitzed non-stop on sunday uh and blitzed aggressively by the bears the jaguars are not a blitzing team but they do get really good quarterback pressure even without blitz blitzing like you mentioned this offensive line is struggling we don't know what the status is with lane johnson he missed last week because of personal reasons um we know dickerson is still out we don't know what the status is with lane johnson he missed last week because of personal reasons we know that sirianni probably looked really good the past five six years however long he's been the coach there because this offensive line had very little turmoil until the last year and a half and i think we're seeing that as sirianni as the offensive line goes so goes sirianni maybe as much as the uh as the ever-changing offensive coordinators um but it's tough to watch it's tough to watch it's tough to watch it's tough to watch it's tough to watch it's tough to watch it's
Speaker 8not an eagles fan it's tough to watch yeah but it's also they're down they're two starting running backs they're down the number one tight end they're down their number one receiver it's yeah take away that from any team you know i'd like to see how they're doing playing this year so it's just it's bad luck it's bad luck they've had a ton of injuries there's not much you can do to overcome that and yeah if maybe we could kyle shanahan or shawn mcveigh that wouldn't have lost that game against the rams but sirianni is what he is he's just he's never going to be a top 10 top 5 coach but um he he's basically in this weird spot now where it's like if they lose this game they lose the carolina they lose the dallas and he's sitting there two and four two and five do we keep letting him be the coach of the philadelphia eagles where it's like he feels like he's cost them two games this season so um yeah it's like i said it's dark day around philadelphia but there's not much you can do it's just tons of injuries and um there's still even odds which is mind-blowing with dallas to win this division so even the sports books don't know what to do with the seagulls team
Speaker 7and they're not even they're not even in first place in the division
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Speaker 7new york giants are visiting the washington commanders this game is generally commanders minus three minus three and a half jayden daniels has uh ascended to the hopeful category they're hopeful he'll play i don't know what to make it make of this giants team to be honest you know they they were one player in the game and they were one player in the game and they were one player away from losing that game against the cardinals the final score they won by 12 but they needed a comeback to win that game and then jacoby brissett throws a pick six on the goal line with no time left so all like i get why this giants team is the underdog i guess i get why the commanders are the favorites with jayden daniels if he's coming back but this just feels like a weird game i don't i don't really have a feel for either of these teams right now
Speaker 8then trust the number are the sports books your friends are they giving you an easy plus three on the giants team against a wounded jayden daniels and this bad commander's team coming back from england it's a very fishy line so i'm right there with you i don't get this line at all i'm just gonna bet the commanders because it's you know my model doesn't have them as a three and a half point favorite better than this giants team but the books do and it's such a public side in the giants like the public's gonna be hammering this giant side completely and i think that's gonna be fair to this commander's side because right now 100 we don't know if jane daniels is gonna play so um i'll i'll stay with the books as we sit here on tuesday but i'm like you it's if i can avoid and not bet this game this week i'll
Speaker 7be happy let's not do it we don't have to do it simon minnesota vikings are visiting the new orleans saints we discussed this game on sunday night when it was at two what would you like to say about this
Speaker 8game simon says give me the saints plus two and a half at polymarket
Speaker 7simon says presented by polymarket the new orleans saints currently trading at 52 percent at two and a half it's actually when we talked about it on sunday it moved down to one and a half it's back to two two and a half at the prediction markets last night was an ugly night on defense against the dynamic playmaker in bijan and an ugly night for tyler shock against a very good defense in the falcons even shock said after the game he understood why fans were booing definitely seeing professionals taking the saints here i worry it's not a great spot for the saints but it feels like a good number for the saints i
Speaker 8mean they just get blown out on prime time i don't know if it gets much better than a spot than this they're facing uh the four and oh minnesota vikings which could easily be four no against the spread as well if they had walked in that touch on another game so it's it just feels like it's two opposite sides or one's peak the other one people just they just got burned last night i mean the saints because of the steve gleason night it was that whole remembering katrina and everything like that which you know you felt the energy at the start of the game but the falcons the reason we love them or i especially love them so much is just the books that are caught up to the penix number right penix is such a better facilitator for that offense than that they've had in the past quarterbacks i believe it's the most points they scored last night since matt ryan and super bowl run in 2016 so it's been a long time since you've seen a falcons offense do what they did and i mean they felt like they left points on the board like they really were dominating that game in every way so this saints team just feels like a nice buy low spot where they're not as bad as they looked last night that was a brutal matchup for them on the flip side i don't think kyler murray is gonna be in the final two minutes of a blowout game don't know why took a bad shot to his knee so we don't know yet what what the idea what We might be happy with Olave, but this Saints team just is not as bad as it looked. And it just feels like it's going to be too overreacted by people in the general public. That game, to me, just felt like a trap game. That was always going to be an Atlanta win. Saints were walking right into it. They were due for that type of game where I think they had coverage three straight weeks, and they had really played tight in all those second halves. I mean, they kept saying on TV, well, this is a second-half team. It's like, well, you can't be a second-half team. It doesn't matter if you're down by 21, and your defense can't stop the run. So this is really one of those weeks where it's like maybe they get off on Tuesday, but there is no, oh, we'll see you guys Thursday. No, they're back in there working. They just got embarrassed. So you expect a bounce back from the Saints team. This is the type of game that feels like the size of their season. Minnesota, like we've talked about, they're a good team, but they're eventually going to get caught here, and the books are going to catch up to them. They're just not going to keep giving away free money on this Vikings team. So, yeah, I'm hoping this keeps going up. Honestly, I know I'm telling people to take a two-and-a-half here. It's really just a case of preparation. Professionals coming to hit this one because it's just another spot. The public will be all over the Vikings, and I'll just be pros here on the Saints team who just looked so bad the night before. So that's what I'm taking a position now just in case this number does move.
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Speaker 8So you're going to love the Texans. This just feels like an absolute spot. But go all in on the Texans. They should win this 30 to three. We've seen this movie before, right? Texans 0-3, 0-4 now. Really tough start to the schedule. I mean, come on. Texans, if you don't blow this team out, yes, it really is all over. There's no coming back. If they win this game by three, this will not change my view on them in any way. Because right now, I think we're all just, this is rock bottom. We're so down on them. Yes. I have to bet on here. I get it, people. You hate it. But this is the exact moment this team should be waking up here, where it's just, you take out all these frustrations these past couple of weeks on this Titans team, which just had their own miracle backdoor cover against a team that, if Lamar played, highly unlikely they'd find a way to backdoor that because they had zero points to Ravens that second half. So another line, I'm interested to see what the public does with it. I'm hoping the public and the professionals, come in on the Titans and keep bumping this Texans number down. Like, I'll take the six and a half. I'm hoping it gets to five and a half. That's such a key number. So, yeah, it's gross, but this is what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to back the Texans here. This is the perfect thing. They're on the road, so they don't have their own fans billing them, yelling at them. Hostile environment in Tennessee, 0-1-4, back against the wall. You're a motivator of men, which I think their head coach is. It's such an easy spot to get that defense up and say, this kid might have been one of the worst quarterbacks in football. We cannot let him cross the 50. So I just, I look at Zimmer, it's like, they should win by 20. The Texans should absolutely blow out this Tennessee team. So it's going to be a fun number to follow along all week. Like, I'll throw a small bet right now on the six and a half. I'm not going to invest heavily into it, just in case professionals and public come on the Titans, I get some free points here. So another game I'll just be patient on. It's all Texans for me, though, in this game.
Speaker 7Have you, when I watched CJ, CJ Stroud, he's not the reason they're losing these games. It's, it's really the defense. So I feel like that's not the expectation. It's all on Dika.
Speaker 8It's all on Dika. Dika Ryan's just, I can't get over how bad of a coaching job he's done. How is this defense so unprepared, Chad? We talked coming into the year, they had all 11 starters returning. It doesn't make, it does not make any sense that Dika Ryan can't get this team right.
Speaker 7They're unprepared at the end of games. And by the way, you want to talk about penalties. The Texans, I think, had two penalties on the same drive on fourth down inside the five-yard line as a defensive unit against the Cowboys on Sunday. Yeah, CJ's actually been pretty good. Like he hasn't been the anchor that, that he had been the past couple of years. If the Texans defense could actually level up, the team could be a juggernaut. They're so freaking close. Would you bet the Texans to make the playoffs right now?
Speaker 8I wouldn't just because the AFC to me is better this year than it was last year. Like they're, they're fighting now with New England and the Raiders for that last spot in Denver. Like those are all teams that you could say, well, they're in the, they're in the AFC South. It should be, it should be easier for them as the season goes along. I think the Colts are going to be better as the season goes along. Like, I think, you know, we keep seeing. We've seen the Jags. They're, they're better than people give them respect for it. So I don't think their division's a layup like it was in the past. And yeah, it's, I know it's going to be like, oh, plus 200, something crazy like that for them to make the playoffs right now because they are 0-4. So I get it. I just, yeah, I can't, I can't make that bet.
Speaker 7Cincinnati at Miami. Miami's a seven and a half point underdog at home. We don't know the status of Jamar Chase with his concussion. He's day to day. We don't know the status. T Higgins, T Higgins, who was listed as day to day with an abductor. We do know that we think the reason the Bengals lost and have lost this year is Joe Burrow. We do know that we have liked Miami multiple times the past couple of weeks when they started out as double digit dogs, it paid off for us once at seven and a half. This feels a little bit like it's on the border for me because this could also feel like if you've wanted a bite of Miami, you've gotten to take your bite and Cincinnati. Maybe if Cincinnati wins this past week, this game is closer to eight and a half or nine. So you might be getting a little bit of value on Cincinnati in a game. They got to get right. Similar to the Texans. Like they got to get this right. Even though they're two and two, they need to play like a team that is a contender for the Superbowl right now. Do they do that against the, the Miami dolphins?
Speaker 8Yeah, it's a hard one because I think we both agree. We want to take Miami here with the hook, but it's another line where we've, we've talked like Cincinnati. If they put it together, they should steamroll this Miami team. They're just, they have so much more talent across the board, but you're right. Look without the chase and T Higgins news. I can't sit here on Tuesday and tell people to blindly bet this one. If those guys are hampered or out for this game, yeah, we'll, we'll just take Miami with the points. Right. And you expect them to keep this type of game close. But this is another game where it's like, you know, Cincinnati, two straight losses. If Joe bro gets right, this is the perfect game to get right for him. So I'm really, really interested what this number does this week. Cause I do want to be on Cincinnati, but not so much at this number. Maybe I can just hedge it and just take them in survivor pool and let that be my stress this week and stop worrying about Joe burrow in the fourth quarter, having a cover. These numbers. But, um, yeah, really, really smart number to me by the books. Like they know exactly what they're doing here, where seven and a half keeps me away from the bangles and tempts me more to the dolphins more than anything else. So, uh, I'll just try to be patient or a couple of books have touched seven. So maybe that's, this is your time to get in. And we've talked about that teaser with the bills. If you want to tease Houston now with the bangles, like you have a couple of easy options this week to tease teams down above, below key numbers and the bangles is one of them right now. shocked that the Bengals lost this game to the Dolphins? No, just because of vibes are just so bad right now with the bangles but we keep saying like the talent level they should blow this Dolphins team out it's just night
Speaker 7and day the difference Joe Burrow is becoming one of those guys this year where you're more nervous when he has the ball than you are and you need something to happen in your favor than you are when you've bet against him you know what I mean does that make sense well Joe's
Speaker 8great with a lead I think goes Cowherd Cowherd had this amazing stat I believe I heard him read that if there's eight minutes left in the game and Joe Burrow's trailing in that game he is 1 and 38 straight up in that exact scenario 1 and 38 in his career now you know some of those some of that's not true because he's tied those games in his defense obviously because of the field goal or the touchdown end of the game yes we know it's a team game but that is a damning stat that just shows what Chad just said that we're deader than dead if Joe Burrow has the ball and we're down by a couple points at the end of the game so that's something that needs a way in people's mind now where you know I was looking to take props I mean I was one of the first to it a bashing Joe Burrow everyone had this guy's a top three top five guy because he was so incredible in college and went to the Super Bowl in his year two we've had three years now below average quarterback play and Joe beats up bad teams but he struggles against playoff teams so this is a bad team this is exactly what I'm going to do I'm going to do what I'm going to do I'm going to do exactly who Joe Burrow should be beating up so that's why I'm I think both of us are just a little gunshot because he burned us so bad last week but I think we both know we're supposed to play the Bengals here but it's like man without T Higgins and Chase it's like do I really want to invest in and Joe Burrow's a seven and a half point favorite without those guys I really can't do that right
Speaker 7now no no you do not neither of us want to do that Cleveland is visiting the New York Jets the Jets are what is that number two point favorite right now the Browns have the potential this week to feel like a massive massive massive public dog the vibes are so good for the Browns right now beating up on the Panthers two weeks ago that that dramatic win against the Steelers they're three and one Deshaun Watson is playing like at 2018 he's actually throwing the ball downfield he's making accurate throws at the goal line like he's actually playing like a legitimate quarterback right now the New York Jets just had the ball for 18 minutes on offense in a game it was such a boring game and I and I it's weird I you know I've got like four different text chains about the Bears that go on on Sundays and it was such a weird game where the Bears were dominating dominating dominating but not pulling away you know they had some issues in the against the goal line and on the goal line and just weren't scoring even though they were dominating the text chains were so quiet because there was like nothing dramatic to talk about it just felt like a very quietly dominant game and does that make this game a little bit lower for the Jets than it should be
Speaker 8yeah I mean you won by double digits what do you want your guys to be saying it's like you said it was a dominant win so it was a
Speaker 7dominant win but it could have been listen we're greedy now it could have been more dominant it could have been 30 to 6
Speaker 8yeah I just I look at this number and we said it Sunday night it's like they they're begging you to take the Browns so um interesting what the professional is doing here with this one I'm hoping hoping it's on the Jets because if it's not if we're hearing it's like all right all the pros are on the on the Browns as well maybe I could be talking to the Browns but this just felt like you know coming to the season this felt like a Jets spot where the Browns um not that I would think that Sean Watts would be playing this high of a level right now but I just knew this would potentially be the peak of the Browns season right like I talk all the time I always look for that Thursday night Browns game and I look to fade them off of that potential win on that Thursday night and I saw this number I think it might have been it might have been this exact same number in the summer which is very rare the books don't adjust especially the fact that Watson's played so well I mean you can say Pennix has been the most shocking quarterback this season what he's done for the Atlanta Falcons team number two has got to be Deshaun Watson like the fact that this Browns team is three and one it's yeah they've played great defense and they've drafted really well but you talk about time you need a quarterback in this league you need a guy who can find ways to win games and him having multiple fourth quarter drives and wins and you know putting up points it's just it really is crazy like I had high hopes for Deshaun Watson coming this season on the football field obviously we talked not a good person off the field but you just expected him fully healthy to bounce back we knew the talent level was there could he mentally get right I mean I can't believe how it's worked out for this Browns team so if they're for real if they're a playoff team yeah they're going and they they smash this Jets team and we've talked like this Jets team the book is out and it's very simple how to beat Geno you just send five you just blitz blitz blitz blitz blitz if you can find the open guy and burn you every now and then okay like that's it's fewer form between what you know it feels like nowadays where it's like even in that Bears game watching the Bears game he just so many three and outs so many so many times he just like so totally disinterested and I mean Jad even talked about like they had Bears defenders joking about that was the easiest game they've ever played in like they don't need to rest their body the guy said it's the first time it is enough for Curry he's not going to the training room getting a like that's that is damning to this Jets team especially offensively that they just they were not hitting hard at all so Browns extended rest playing against a Jets defense that you know played a ton of snaps got what do we say it was 55 carries by the Bears defense running the ball I mean the Jets defense must be just absolutely in torture chamber this week their bodies must be broken so yeah really interesting line to see what the public does this one because it's I really wanted to take the Browns but we know these traps we see what the books are doing here so I'm gonna wait and see what the the shops and the professionals do with this number but yeah it feels like it's either Jets or nothing for
Speaker 7us here uh couldn't agree more um I'm so glad to hear you say that because I know on Sunday night we had talked about the Browns potentially being a spot and now it just feels like something's misaligned here and we'd be walking into our old friend the Hornet's Nest if we just blindly went after after the the Cleveland Browns if you
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Speaker 7Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a two and a half point home favorite. You just mentioned the Colts. I don't have great read on this game other than my instinct says, I want to be on the Colts as home underdogs. I just have, as we did heading into this past weekend, and we did this a couple of weekends ago too, my feeling is that Shane Steichen's a really good coach and that this team is on the ascent. Like they were figuring some things out. They had a rough start to the year, but it started to click with the Texans. It got a little bit better last week with the commanders, even though they went against a third string quarterback. I just think this team is getting better and better. And I don't think the Steelers are getting better and better. I think the Steelers are a pretty inconsistent team that is still completely unsure of who their talent is and how they're going to win games.
Speaker 8This game is in Pittsburgh. Yeah. You said Colts at home. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I meant Indy at Pittsburgh. Let's say Colts team that just like the Eagles next week, they're skipping the bye week after international game and now playing a team on extended rust. I mean, schedule-wise, it's terrible. Like how are you going to put the Colts at such a disadvantage? Steelers have extra rest and the Colts have extended travel. I mean, the Eagles are the same thing. The Panthers are on a bye this week. The Eagles come back from England next week and they play the Panthers. I don't get the schedule makers doing these type of games. I know they don't care. They're trying to just fit it right. And they're under so much different stuff. Everything's connected in a different way. But how can you not say this is such a huge disadvantage for this Colts team? It really is. Like that was the first thing that popped out to me so much. And they were down 6-0 and Washington had the ball when Marietta got hurt. Like that was not going their way in any way. That totally flipped that game. Because when we saw that kid came out there and he looked totally lost, that third stringer. Like he just, it's not his fault either. The NFL is impossible. And, you know, you're taking a guy who's had maybe five to 10 reps total with the first team offense. He just looked totally lost. So I surprised. Surprisingly, like Pittsburgh here. But I'm like, yo, I'm going to be patient here and wait because it's just, I think the pros in the public will take the information, the same information I have, which is just based off rest alone. This is such a huge advantage for the Steelers team. But if you do like the Steelers, I'd take it now because I could see this start bumping up to three with this Colts team. It's just such a brutal disadvantaged spot for them. They don't, you know, their one big advantage here is the Steelers have struggled against the run. And they have Jonathan Taylor. I was thinking that'll run the ball in this Steelers team. But you look at the secondary, this Colts team, they don't match up well at all against Aaron Rodgers in this offense of Pittsburgh. Like we've seen Pittsburgh, especially the last two weeks, they can push, they can push the ball through the air. I mean, they did against Cincy. They did against the Browns. We've seen McCarthy's offense has gotten better. So props to him. But yeah, very, very weird spot for this Colts team to put in here with all this travel.
Speaker 7Interesting. I thought you'd be more. Into the Colts. But you make a good point about the rest, which I hadn't thought of. I just thought you'd be more into the Colts is like a team that's on the ups, on the upswing.
Speaker 8Are they on the upswing or they've had the right circumstances where like the Houston, I think we both agree they should have probably covered that game or potentially even won it against them. Like they had opportunities. But like we talked about D'Amico, he just is struggling right now. And then once again, the commanders, the commanders are all over. They're all over them in that game. And then it totally flipped when Mariotta went out. So I think this Colts team has been very fortunate where I watched Daniel Jones in these games and he still doesn't look right. I don't know if you feel the same way, but yeah, still doesn't look right. And he doesn't have weapons on the outside. Like he's just throwing to these no name receivers. I mean, Josh Downs went down in that game. So it's just, it's tough right now for this Colts team where I think Steelers are going to have the same plan I would have, which is you just put all the guys in the box and let Daniel Jones beat you with Keenan Allen or whoever they are. They're throwing out there right now. So it's just, it's a bad spot. It feels like for this Colts team.
Speaker 7All right. Special programming note. Everyone knows we are the world's most literate sports betting podcast. We are releasing a bonus episode tomorrow. We've got a bunch of people who have books coming out. Our old buddy, Seth Wickersham has a new book out to sports media legend, John Kozner at Desser also have a book coming out all about the sports media business. So we did a show with them. Just talking about books. All of them have some great stories because as everyone knows, I have a book coming out in January called The Number. Thrilling deep dive into the high stakes world of sports betting and prediction markets. Sweet spot for anyone listening to this podcast. I did offer last week, anyone who pre-orders 10 copies, I will either Zoom with your group or come visit you. Be like the Norton family in Atlanta. They sent me an email. They ordered 10 books. They promised if I come, you'll love this Matt Mitchell. You'll love this Simon. If I come down to Atlanta, they will take, they will get a 445 dinner reservation. Even though it'll be at a steakhouse, they promise I can have seeds and lettuce. Can't wait to get there. Join the fun email sharp or square at the volume.com with your proof. Of purchase. Let's geek out together in a book club.
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Speaker 7Our listeners. God love them. Las Vegas at New England. New England is a three and a half point favorite right now. Raiders are a massive public dog. Even on the prediction markets, Simon, it's much more expensive. To buy the Raiders side than it is to buy the Patriots side. Are we walking into it? If we go all in on the Raiders here.
Speaker 8I don't know if we're walking into it. Cause they have just, they keep outperforming the books expectations, right? The, I mean, the last week the number was four and a half and Atlanta. So it's just another week where it's like the books aren't just off by half a point. I mean, it's a full point and a half and yeah, it came down to two pointer, but it wasn't like the spread was five. Five or five and a half. Right. So it's especially when you look at the data of the teams that are potentially frauds. Right. I mean, I know our old colleague, Dr. Nick puts out the luck rankings, which is kind of the same thing. And right now the number one team, biggest fraud team for most people projection out are the giants. Number two, the Browns. Number three, Minnesota Vikings. Number four, the Raiders. So it's not shocking that we're this week. It feels like we're in the middle of the week. It feels like we should be on the opposite side of all four of those teams. I just listed. Yeah, we know, we know they're going to get caught. It's going to get caught up to them eventually. Right. They're all the bricks that keep going their way. NFL doesn't work that way. I mean, unless you're Patrick Mahomes and the chiefs, like usually the breaks don't break for you every year. And we saw last year, right. That caught up to the chiefs. They went from being the year before they were like 11 and two, one score games to, they were like two and 10 and one score games in the home. So you see the NFL, it just, it does that. It just, eventually your luck catches up to you. So Raiders, we've talked how good of a team they've been. And you go back and you watch Kirk. Yes. Kirk has been extremely lucky, like back foot throws, 25 yards downfield, hitting guys who are covered tight, like hands in their face, but Kirk's putting it right on the money, right into the bucket. So this one's really tough. We talked a little bit about Thursday night, Sunday night. Cause I couldn't believe this is what the books opened it. Cause to me, if they opened at three, they would get very balanced. It's good action. Like people would be taking the Patriots, but minus three and a half, who is baiting the, who's betting the Patriots here. I just, as much as they did win that game against the bills, we talked, the bills beat themselves. It feels like in many ways in that game. So, and all that third down luck, I mean, Drake may out of his mind, third and tens, third and 11s, Matt Collins, whoever downfield plays,
Speaker 7Matt Collins, the guy who replaced Matt Collins, making a one handed catch in the end zone.
Speaker 8Yeah. So it is tough where it's like, I want to fade the Patriots, but we mean you've done this long enough. The books are telling us what to do here. So I guess I'll take the Patriots or pass on this one, but I don't feel good about it. I just, I love this Raiders team so much. I believe so much in them. It's I feel like I'm betraying my girlfriend here. It's like, I feel like we're supposed to take the Raiders, but it just, we, we see all the warning signs flash right now where it's like you said, this is going to be the most public dog by far this week. Them and the Browns are going to be beloved by the public. This week, two road dogs,
Speaker 7Clint Kubiak at halftime of that Raiders cheese game said, we're going to win this game. I felt like he was talking to me, honest to God, like we needed the win. We, we needed the Raiders to play well in that game. And I felt like he was truly channeling his energy and directing it to me. I love the way he has this team believing. I love the way he is scheming up plays for Kirk cousins. I do think that's giving Kirk, so much more confident when he is going and being called on to make the plays. Because like you said, maybe you're thinking of the same play I am, but they had a replay of a throw that he made. His guy was not open. And he just put it directly, not even on his hands, on his fingertips. You know, if you're watching on YouTube right now, you can see like, this is my left hand is the defensive back's hand. My right hand is the receiver's hand. Like there was an inch of room there and he nailed it. He was rolling left and throwing across his body into triple coverage. And like, I think Clint has him believing that he is Kirk Cousins of five years ago. So it's hard to bet against that. I get why the public is coming in on it. And the Patriots have given us no reason to believe in them other than the fact they had a miracle play by a player off the practice squad. That's really it. That and like at some point, the party's got to end for the Raiders, we assume, but Jesus, I don't want to bet against the Raiders. And I know we can't bet on the Raiders.
Speaker 8And I was shocked. I don't know if you saw Vrabel. Basically CJ, Garden Johnson said that, like that guy Chisholm had a once in a lifetime catch and was kind of talking smack about him. And Vrabel went right back and was like, listen, this is a guy that knows plenty about practice squads. He's been on whatever it was, four teams in eight years. I didn't see that. But yeah, respect to Vrabel. I mean, he's opening himself up to just be absolutely crushed. It's like, dude, you cheated on your wife for eight years. Who are you to say anything about anybody in any situation right now? So good for Vrabel not to change who he is because he knows he's the easiest, most open target in the world right now for talking shit. So I love that one liner right back at CJ from Vrabel, which is Vrabel should do, right? Get your guys backs. But as soon as I heard that joke, I was like, my God, this guy is truly in a bubble because it's, you just, he's in a weird spot where he just can't be making, he's the easiest guy ever to make fun of right now. So yeah, I really cannot wait for that next rematch of Bill's Patriots because I mean, you had Patriots players spitting on the ground as they were leaving saying F you to that new stadium. And just, I just love divisional games. It's the best. Like these guys literally hate each other. So yeah, like we said, this feels like we're supposed to take a Patriots here. We love the Raiders. So it just, we feel torn. This is truly a torn, torn pick right here. We know we're supposed to do, but we love the Raiders.
Speaker 7Well, we got three divisional games coming up right now. Chicago at Green Bay. Green Bay is a two and a half point underdog at home. This is the world we live in right now. Tyson Bajent is nearly a field goal favorite on the road in the biggest rivalry in all of professional football. We know this isn't really about Tyson Bajent. We know this is about fans believing that anyone Ben Johnson puts under center can win in college. But we know this is about fans believing that anyone Ben Johnson puts under center can win in college. Because that is what keeps happening. Can we believe, Simon, have we reached peak inflation and hype on the Chicago Bears?
Speaker 8And this is not the biggest rivalry. This is the oldest rivalry, Chad. The biggest rivalry would be the Eagles-Cowboys, which I believe put up like 40 million views, their opening game last year. So put a little respect on their true biggest rivalry. No, I'm kidding. But it's an all-timer, right? I'd have to go through my notes, but I'm almost positive I had it written down, where the last time you guys were favorite in Lambeau. 2006. Yes. And you guys won like 30-0. Yeah. So are the books telling us what to do once again last week? I know you were a little gun-shy last week on your Bears team against the Jets. But I just joke with you. It's like this is coaching male practice. I mean, I couldn't get over the advantage you guys had coaching-wise with Ben Johnson. And it's not the same, obviously, LaFleur. LaFleur is a great coach here. But this is a line where I couldn't believe it. Sunday night, we were sitting there. It's one and a half. And it's like, why would this number not be three? Like, Green Bay is a terrible team right now. They're undisciplined. Without Jordan Love, they would not have won a game this year. Now, they're sitting here two and two because of him. Like, he's been that great and that high level of a caliber in his quarterback position. But team-wise? Team-wise, overall, I mean, they're just playing so well together, the Bears. Like, they just found something in that Caleb injury against the Vikings. Like, that loss totally flipped something with this team. Where now we've had two straight weeks of, you know, pretty dominant back to their core, who they are, running the ball, right? They kind of lost there against Minnesota. Where they're, in my opinion, just throwing the ball too much. Where it's like the run was working. Like, Ben got away from it. The last two weeks, he got right back to it against Philadelphia, then against the Jets. Another team in Green Bay that's like, you know, down so many guys on the offensive line. They got away with it last week against Tampa because Tampa doesn't really have much of a pass rush. But you expect here in Chicago, that's the one really good thing they have defensively, is they can get a pass rush overall. So, if it's still two and a half at your shop, I'm still going to put a bet here on this Bears team because I still think there's potential of Caleb coming back here. And if Caleb does come back here. I could easily see this running right back up to three and a half, three. So, two and a half right now, probably market, I'll take that number. Obviously, I still wish it was one and a half, but once it starts getting up to three, three and a half, and if it is the backup quarterback, I might have to take a position on Green Bay. I really don't want to. Like, people can tell, I'm just super down on Green Bay. It was like last week. I was just so much happier to have a three and a half on Tampa than I was to have a two and a half on Green Bay because I just kept thinking Green Bay is going to blow this game. Now, we talked, that rookie, he gave it away to Green Bay. He threw bad. He threw bad picks. They just couldn't get it together, and whatever it was, they won 17 to 14 against a really bad Tampa team. This is not a bad team in the Bears. So, the books are telling themselves a little bit. Another line where it's like they opened a bad number, one and a half. The pros came in and just absolutely thrashed this one. Now, it's up to two and a half, three. I'm still going to take a position on two and a half, but it's another number. I think later in the week, maybe I'll be more in love with this city right now. It just feels way too easy. It's who's still backing this Green Bay team. They are so injured. They are so bad. I don't get how you're going to back them, especially after a week they just won and covered. This line does not make sense to me in any way.
Speaker 7They also, by the way, they lost another player, Edruin Cooper, on the defensive side of the ball towards Achilles on Sunday. So, it's just one more player who's going to be out for the Packers. All right. Denver at the Los Angeles Chargers. I nearly made this Chad's choice. The Chargers are… They are three and a half point home underdogs. It's really not as much of an edge as you'd think statistically for home underdogs who are in this winless position. But, and Sean Payton has a history of really having his offense blow up when we get into October. He has said in the past, the first month of the year, you're figuring out who your team is and is against us. But, and Sean Payton has said in the past, the first month of the year, you're figuring out who your team is and is against us.
Speaker 8And anyway, he has habits right now that he never had in the past. His footwork, it looks like he's totally forgot what he learned in his whole career. He's got happy feet now because of the hits he's taken and all this other stuff. So it's another number I don't know what to do with because it's so chalky, so public taking Denver here. But it's like you're telling me you're getting that Denver defensive line against a front five that could be four backups now. And if Alt misses, it'll be all five will be backups. And they're already on their third string center. So it's just – it keeps piling up. It's just you're – I feel so bad for the Chargers. It's like they're not getting any type of breaks in any of these games. They've been fighting hard these last couple weeks, but it's like, you know, this is a horrible, horrible spot for them to be playing against a Denver team that's coming off a bad loss. Even when you talk to those guys in the locker room, even they were more upset than I was about that whole – it was that guy's forearm down. I mean, how that flipped the game. So, I mean, you got Sean Payton getting cursed off by ex-players on the field when he's getting in the handshake line. I don't know if you saw that. Like, he just – yeah. Like, he's just – you expect them to take all that rage out on this Chargers team that's just beaten down, and this has nothing left. So, I can already tell you the pros will be on the Chargers. Like Chad said, it's a home divisional dog. They're facing 0-5, and they're going to be facing 0-5 against the spread. So, I don't knock you. We're taking a position here. I just – I can't tell our listeners to take this Chargers team. Maybe I'll get there on next show, have some pros calling, because I haven't bet this game yet. But as I say right now, it just feels like everything points to this Broncos team. Maybe we'll take a position in Chargers' first half and try to be sneaky about it where it's like, well, we've seen the Broncos be so bad in the first half. Maybe that's the play. But I just – I have a hard time thinking we can have three straight weeks of this Chargers team backdooring, because that's what you're hoping on here. You're really – you know their Chargers are going to probably lose this game. You're just praying for a backdoor with the hook.
Speaker 7What does your model have it at right now?
Speaker 8Honestly, it's a Chargers number. I got it at 2-1⁄2. So, that's what I'm saying. It's like I don't think we've accounted for it. Because that's – people don't get it. That's a huge adjustment. That's moving it five to six points from what I had in the preseason. So, it's really tough, right? It's like the model is telling you what to do. The pros are telling you what to do. But it's like, man, I can't get over all these injuries this team has had. Where we've seen Herbert in the past, he's overcome these injuries. And he's been great as a big dog. But this year as a big dog, he hasn't covered yet. So, it's like you have to kind of throw those old numbers out. They just don't really go with what this team is this year.
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Speaker 7Well, the other game that is the divisional rivalry is San Francisco visiting Seattle. You pinpointed the game on Sunday night. It was a two and a half. And then Sunday night, it very quickly moved to three and to three and a half in some spots. It's now leveled off. It's mostly three. There actually are some two and a halves out there. This is going to be Chad's choice. I think this is a similar matchup that we're talking about. We're talking about with the Broncos, right? A really good defense in Seattle. A coach who we believe in. A quarterback we think is suspect. And I think Kyle Juszczyk being out has a huge impact on the Niners offense. He does a lot of stuff with motion that I think is important to what the Niners try to do. It's why they have a fullback that plays as often as he does. But now we're getting the Niners who probably, as you just said, I think they got away with one against the Broncos. That fumble changed everything in the game. And if Seattle can do to the Niners with Mike Evans, who's still playing with broken ribs, and still no Nick Bosa, what the Broncos did, only now they're doing it at home, I got it back. The Seahawks is a short home favorite.
Speaker 8Yeah, and you're talking about Juszczyk. I've talked to people all the time within NFL team scouts and people working in front of the office, and I say a nod to all these people. The NFL needs to step in and bring back tackling in practice because I get it. There's sometimes these guys that take them down, they have to go at the knees and the thighs. That's where they're aiming for the tackle. But they're not wrapping up. They're just going and throwing their whole body at these people's lower bodies. And that's how you end careers, right? That shot to his knee, now it's not out for the season, he didn't tear anything, but it's like you saw his leg bend back the other way. And I get it. These guys are flying a mile a minute, but it's just like rugby, not that much different of a sport, but they took away that. In fact, there's no helmet mixed so these guys tackle a certain way. And I feel like they need to bring that to the NFL where there's so many less injuries in rugby. A sport, there are no pads. I don't feel like people realize how insane it is. They're playing the same, maybe not as fast, but they're going pretty damn fast. They're hitting pretty damn hard, but they don't have the same lower body injuries, right? And they don't have concussion injuries. So it really is an NFL problem with the tackling. And as soon as I saw Kyle get hit, I was like, oh, I thought his season was over. The guy literally took out his kneecap and his leg bent the other way. So brutal, brutal loss for a 49ers fan on a team that, I mean, you really can't afford any more injuries. That's another one. It's just, they just keep adding up. So yeah, I'm with you on Seattle. My only hesitation here is something's off with Sam Donald. I'd like to think, well, it's because he came back from the injury. But we talked about it last year. He led the league in turnovers and they totally flipped their way through the season. And we're giving them tons of love to Kubiak. So much of that was on Kubiak and Kenneth Walker. Now we've seen Kubiak go to a team, make them incredible, right? Three and one Raiders. Kenneth Walker now is number one, number two running back in all football on the Chiefs. Can't say it enough how big of a deal that is for the Seahawks team going forward. Where, you know, coming this year, we're like, oh, well, the Seahawks is still the Seahawks, right? We were like, oh, well, like it's still a great defense. It's been noticeable those losses on offense. And Sam Donald here against this defense, he should have a good game. Like we've seen it, this team, you know, as bad as Bo Nix played, there was no real pass rush. Like a lot of that stuff was, I think we both agree it was Webb. Like it just didn't seem like there was guys open. He just felt like he got outcoached by the 49ers team, which, hey, 49ers could do it again. They got a great, great coaching staff. So it's another, a great match for them, but it's like, We're both waiting for this to catch up with this Niners team. They've just been so hot. Public is just so in love with them. I'm with you. If you can get 2.5 in the Seattle Seahawks, I'd grab that right now. It's not as confident if it's 3.5. That's what Pauly Marcus is going to go to next. Obviously, this is a little bit like we did with Houston last week. Not that we didn't hate Houston at the 3.5, but it was just like if we're taking a team here at a bad number, it usually doesn't work out for you. It feels the same here with Seattle where it's like you need to get the best number here. This Niners team is so good, so well-coached. We know Seattle has had their number the last couple seasons here, especially defensively, but the party's playing at such a high level. You're going to step in front of the train, get the best of the number. Looking at this one, I totally agree with you, Chad. If we're going to have any favorite in this week, this one really jumps out to me as a favorite. We definitely want to be taking it at 2.5.
Speaker 7Detroit is visiting Arizona. Arizona. It's a four-and-a-half-point home underdog. The line was six. You talk about best of the number. The line was six on Sunday. You tagged it right away. I feel like I want to be on Arizona here, but I'm upset that we can't offer it to people at six, and it won't be six or six-and-a-half or five-and-a-half in the contest. If you look at the matchup, these are two of the worst defenses in the league. Our theory on playing Carolina last week against Detroit, was that it doesn't matter how bad Carolina's defense is. We're going to rely on Bryce Young at home, who we do believe in as an underdog. He's going to score every time he gets the ball. At least we have to believe that he will, and that's why we're betting Carolina. I don't have the same faith in Arizona being able to score and keep up with the Lions' offense to say, hey, go get this, especially when we've lost a point-and-a-half of value.
Speaker 8Yeah, I can't believe it. I'm upset. I'm not in their favor, but I think you're right. The Lions have moved now to being probably the right side to bet, especially after such an embarrassing loss against Carolina. We've seen this pattern develop now with Campbell. They cover, and then they get terrible no-cover the next week. They've had this weird pattern now since Ben Johnson's left. I know when I think it's Paris Campbell, the certain left or right tackle for Arizona is going to miss this game as well, which that's a big deal, because Hutchinson is literally the best, the best defender by far Detroit has. Last week against Carolina, he was in there. Bryce Young just had an incredible game. Bursette, you expect him to bounce back. That Giants game, horrible game by him, right? Two really bad picks, but Detroit tends to bounce back, especially against bad teams like this. You expect Detroit to get theirs. This game reminds me a lot of when we talked about a couple weeks ago with the Jets, where I remember we had a little bit of a bet on the Jets' money line, but we were just like, don't even take the spread. This feels like the type of game the Jets will win that they wouldn't cover. Now, I don't think they did cover. I think Atlanta ran it right on seven. It was a six-and-a-half spread, so Detroit did cover that game. It feels the same thing here, where Arizona, they'll lose this game, and it'll be by seven. This isn't the Ben Johnson lines where they would win this game by 20, 25, after that embarrassing loss in prime time. But I still think this offense, all the weapons they have, they should put up a ton of points against Arizona's suspect defense. On the flip side, I think defensively, as bad as they've lost, as bad as they've looked, this isn't that terrible of a matchup for Detroit's defense against this Arizona team. Right. Yeah, shockingly, another favorite this week for us, like Detroit.
Speaker 7Sunday Night Football, Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons. The line is two-and-a-half. The game is in Atlanta. It's another prime time game. There's some threes out there, but it has ticked down from three-and-a-half down to three, down to two-and-a-half. I think there's a couple reasons. One, we still don't know the status of Lamar Jackson, who left the game against the Titans and didn't play in the second half because of an ankle injury. And also, just what the Falcons have been doing now two weeks in a row on prime time with Bijan just going off. And now they're getting another prime time game. Interesting spot. To me, it's a pass until I get a better sense of who's actually playing in the game.
Speaker 8Well, not me. You've seen what I've done these last couple weeks. I've just been all in on Atlanta. And it's just, it's been paying my mortgage. It's really that easy. This is how I make my money. It's just adjusting before the public adjusts to it. The public just was unsure about Pennix. Just like I was, obviously, that Sunday night against, Monday night against Green Bay, or Thursday night, I should say. But that Saints matchup I just knew coming in, that was going to be a really favorable matchup with the Falcons. It feels the same here. This Ravens team, it's really all about Lamar. And if you're taking away his ankle, which he needs to run, how can you not let that happen? I still like the Falcons. As good as his arm has looked, right, and his connection with Zay Flowers, and against a suspect secondary with all these injuries for the Falcons, sure, he bought a pass to the ball. But if it's a hampered Lamar, I still like the Falcons. And now if it's Snoop Huntley, even more so. Like, he just, he looked totally lost trying to run that offense last week. So, yeah, hopefully you guys listened Sunday night. Three and a half was truly a gift back in this Falcons team. And it moved the exact way I thought it was going to move, where it's like, okay, you take Atlanta now. If Lamar's injuries are for real, this will easily go away. If you flip to Atlanta being Falcons, being favorites, here we're sitting, they're favorites now. And I'd still take the two and a half. Until it's at three or above, I would still take the Falcons here. And if Lamar comes back, maybe we get back the plus one and a half from the Falcons. And you could take another bet on that if you want to, or buy it out of your position if you wanted to. But I'm still dugging on Atlanta here. I still think the books are still underrated and not pricing them right. So, another, Ryan, I'm interested in what the public does with this. Like, if it's up to three and a half, maybe that's when we start to get a position on this Ravens team. But still at two and a half, I still think the right side is to take the Falcons.
Speaker 7Last game on the board. And reminder, we're doing our Sunday morning episodes live on YouTube at 11 a.m. So, they're going a little bit later, but we're doing them live. If you want to hear the final five contest picks, join us live, Sharper Square YouTube, 11 a.m. Sundays. Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. The Buffalo Bills are two and a half point underdogs. I like Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are plus two and a half.
Speaker 8I did Sunday night, but I did say just put in a teaser because something's fishy about this line. So, something wrong with Josh Allen right now, Chad. What do you think it is? I don't know. He's got a lot going on in off-field life. He's got a wife and a baby on the way. I just, I feel like there's- They have the baby. They have the baby. Yeah. Like, there's a lot going on. He just seems different. Like, that game. That game. That game against the Patriots. There was just so many times, like, even when he was going three and out, where it's just you're not used to him, them being so sloppy offensively. And it was the same reason I didn't want to bet Joe Brady anything Super Bowl-wise. Like, first-year head coaches just do not win the Super Bowl. It's so rare for them to even let alone make a Super Bowl. And it's a little worrisome where Joe Brady is running the show. And that worries me a little bit because in that game, Cook is picking up, I feel like, five, six yards per carry. But they're not feeding him. They weren't feeding him the ball. They were still trying to let Josh Allen win that game for him. Where they weren't taking advantage of what was working for him. And that's what I worry about here with the Rams. It's like, is it that easy? It just feels like a little too easy here. I don't get this line at all. I thought this would be a pick-em. Just because, you know, we're a couple weeks in here. The Rams haven't looked good either. I mean, they played one good game against the Giants. Every other game has been very sloppy. And Matt Stafford has not looked right either, which I think is fair to say. So, yeah, this is one where- Here I'm hoping I can just tease the Bills and that will be my position. Because I'm with you. It's like, I really wanted to be on the Bills here. But something is just off. I don't get why the books are giving us two and a half. They're very nice of them, giving us two and a half. I mean, we talked about two is such a key number here. But, yeah, bizarre line by the books here. And maybe we're just too high on Josh Allen and this Bills team still. Where it's like, are we all on this team because they won week one and beat up a bad Chargers team? Like, are we hyping up this team too much? But they really haven't beat up. That good of teams on their schedule. It's like, you know, Houston's 0 for 4. Like, I get why there's so many people questioning this Bills team right now. That's why I'm trying to take a step back here. Because it's another game that felt very easy Sunday night where I couldn't believe we're getting two and a half on this Bills team. So, interesting what the professionals do this one. As we see it right now, I'll just throw them in a teaser of this Bills team and take the easy way out, get them up to eight and a half.
Speaker 7All right. We got a lot of things we're going to have to narrow down on Thursday. Vin says, was New Orleans plus two and a half. Chad's choice was Seattle minus two and a half. But I think we got questions about the Jets at minus two. I think we got questions about New England at minus three and a half. I think we're curious to see what the professionals say about the Chargers in Denver and certainly this game, the Bills and the Rams in Los Angeles. This has been Sharper Square. The Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on, plus our survivor pick, our head-to-head battle. Brass Ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
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