NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets: Top 10 Picks + Touchdown Scorer Predictions (Ep. 2238)

This is an "I Heart" podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaritana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist on artist podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? Hi, he winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the almost here. The eyelashes hate each other. You never seen Italy so quiet. As when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artist on artist on artist every Thursday on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up friends? Welcome to Bedding Pro. This is the week four prop show. I'm Chris Welsh. I've got Andrew Erickson, the Undertaker. And that's going to mean something in this episode. We are going to be going through our top 10 props for week four. We've got five each. We're going to do some touchdown calls. We've got first touchdowns and we got a whole bunch of fun to go through. And that fun, Mr. Andrew Erickson actually does start with our big board. Because last week keeping our accountability buddies all happy. We were both three and two. So we had another 500 week. The only week that's I mean you've been 500 all three weeks. So shout out to you. Would you like to give a little speech? Like all three weeks of over 500. You're kind of amazing right now. Speech speech speech speech. I mean, I would have been four and one if Chase Brown hadn't let me down. Come a couple yards short of hitting his rushing arts prop. But hey, and the green giving out good plays. We both hit touchdowns last week, which is a big hit two and a half. I guess two and two because we give two touchdown bets. But the fact that both our tight ends end up scoring. Find the end zone. That was a big W. Yeah, so when we look at the big board for last week, we were both three and two. You said we both had a touchdown. You had a big positive EV because I believe it was a kin and Sadik. So you were like plus ROI. You had like you were like plus three units. I guess on that technically I was a little over, you know, little over on the positive. But either way, I got my first touchdown call. You got the cut touchdown call both three and two. So when we go and take a look at the yearly board, you are now 10 and five. Very impressive. Very hot start. At least I'm over 500. I am now eight and seven after my Porsche week one, two straight weeks, though of being over 500. So you're 10 and five. I'm eight and seven. You have two touchdown calls. Correct. I have one. You've got a positive return from a unit perspective on your touchdowns. I am still in the negative. Got to get there. And we have zero first touchdown calls. Correct. But we will. Boy, if we hit ours this week, just wait to the setup that we're going to give you guys. That's the big setup for the big board. But we have a couple other, well, they have one other big board or the graphic that we have is the Jemeer Gibbs roll over touchdown continues three straight weeks. Erickson said you can make money off of big juice up touchdown calls. And like in years past that one, whatever it was, a Christian McCaffrey, you know, is like 15 straight weeks. You could have, you could have been a billionaire if you would have done it. That's your game into here. So talk to us through. I don't really remember where we're, where are we at from a unit perspective going into week four of Jemeer Gibbs betting. Full disclosure, my unit size is not big enough for me to become a billionaire, whether Jemeer Gibbs scores touchdowns for 30 consecutive weeks. But I think now we're at to a point where it's two and a half units. I believe now that we're betting on Jemeer Gibbs to score the anytime touchdown, just based on the winnings rolling that over every single week. And again, good match up this week against the Carolina Panthers. So yeah, another week of Jemeer Gibbs. And hey, if it doesn't happen in the first half goes in that Sunday night football game, it would be a sweaty second half. Maybe a late fourth quarter touchdown, but I'm expecting another touchdown performance from Jemeer Gibbs. And I think it's like, I think it's like minus 220. So you're probably going to be looking at, well, I don't remember what you just said, two and a half units. You'll probably be up like maybe close to four if this rolls over and we go into week five, but now we're starting to cook a little bit. So the Jemeer Gibbs roll over continues. It's very exciting. The other one, I don't even know if we have a graphic for it because we didn't need it. But the Welsh undefeated unders has ended. So now I'm obliged to never bet an under again. I was one and one on my unders. I put two unders on my card. The one blue past it. So I refused to do an under this week out of solidarity for unders being lame. You are going to do the exact opposite here into the show. But we've got 10 bangers for you. Hopefully you guys are going to be tracking along with us. Make sure you guys download the betting pros app where you can track all of your bets. You can get all the data. You can see the five star bets that we talk about. You can see what betting pros you can use the analyzer or the cheat sheet to help you out. All the tools that we make as a part of our whole system here. You can do the same. So download the betting pros app. Let's jump into this now that we got all that stuff out of the way. It's a fresh week. We got to be big and positive. We got touchdown calls. First, I'm actually like super excited to do the first touchdown calls. But we also have a few returners to the prop bets here. I'm going to have one. You have got one that actually failed you. And there may be a trend of one person going heavy. We over the one person going heavy unders. But for you, that's not going to change at least in this first one. So Erickson, this is a squad ride one. I completely agree with you on this one. Love this play. Your first prop for week four. Hit us with it. Josh Downs over 62 and a half receiving yards. We are headed to London because I like starting my Sunday with the big W. So we're going to get some action in on this. Commanders, Colts game in the early window. You're going to be up really early to watch Josh Downs dominate this defense. Well, 630 AM Eastern time. Or is it 730 Eastern time because of the time zone differences with daylight savings? What time is it actually going to be when the Colts game kicks off? Well, you give me the Eastern time. What is the Eastern time of the 930 Eastern? That will be six. Wow. Somehow you got all of it wrong. I don't even know how you did the 630. It will be 630. 630 time. Pacific. Yeah. So. So you'll be up. Sweating the Josh Downs prop along. Because this commander's defense is so horrible. I covering basically everybody that catches the ball. They have allowed a league high 46.7 fantasy points were given to receivers. The fourth highest pass rate to quarterbacks targeting the slot. So far this season. And that's where Josh Down does the majority of his damage. 68% of his routes are run out of the slot. That is the fifth high smart among qualified wide receiver. So it's a good matchup. And it just comes to him facing up in this commander's defense. And his role in the Colts offense has changed. He is no longer just being pitch and hold into. Okay. You're only playing in 11 personnel. He is a full-time player in the Colts offense running the most routes on the team. The last two weeks. He's average a team. I 2.4 yards. On nearly a 33% target share while the team has not had Alec Pierce who's been out with an injury. 20 targets of the last two weeks. Five passes for at least 70 yards in each contest. So the fact that you get this number below 70 yards. He's been over this in two straight weeks. And the matchup is oh so juicy. I think Josh Downs is going to have another big statement game here. And the fact that he's being used more down field. Josh Downs is usually a player I think in years past we would have this conversation. Well, it's about okay. Are we doing the receptions? Are we doing the receiving arts with Josh Downs? And more or less he's always been a guy that okay, we want to attack the volume with them because he's using used more underneath. But because his area yard share is actually now top 12 in the NFL. 114 incomplete area yards last year. He's actually seeing more down field stuff. So I actually like and feel confident about the yardage, especially with his receiving prop or the receptions prop. Like we talked about earlier is really juiced towards the over, especially at five and a half. So I like the yardage here and he's going to go over. You actually make a very compelling case to play the other side of what my prop is going to be. I'll tell you here in a second. But what did I say the first two weeks? If you give me four and a half on Parker Washington, I'm taking the over. Then they did give me four and a half the next week. And I was just like nayser because it's too juiced. We are now in a spot where I am going to open up the market to five and a half on Parker Washington because we are goat status. And this is going to be plus money. So I am jumping in. I'm jumping back. Technically, I'm two and a half on Parker Washington bets. We are going to go for three. Now I'm back on Parker Washington and we are playing. It's not the alt. It's not necessarily the outline. It's the 5.5 over and it's plus money and you know, a couple different spots. There's a little bit over or I've even seen like plus 119 to 120 on Parker Washington. The thing that makes it interesting and what you said, Parker Washington actually is fourth in the NFL in air yard share. 46%. So that would actually be a play. It's pushed up a little bit around this 70-ish marker. So that actually kind of interests me in the ever going battle of receptions versus receiving yards. But in this case, like Parker Washington has been the guy. And now the Bengals secondary has been solid from an overall perspective. But if you look at PFF ratings out for this week, number two overall matchup for Parker Washington. Graded out obviously because he is so high. But one of the things to focus on, it's not DJ Turner. It's DJ Ivy and Dax Hill. The corners that he might be lined up against, especially specifically when he gets into the slot. DJ Turner will stay on the outsides a bit more. DJ Ivy does not even qualify is unranked. And you're looking at Dax Hill, the other corner that's like 90 of 100. overall corner. So they're going to move. We know that Parker Washington's going to move throughout the offense are going to get him on the inside and they're going to slaying him the ball. He his target share has been up there. I believe it's closed in on around 39% as I'm looking here in a 28.4% overall target share for the team with a 32.8% first read share. So we just go through this. He is the guy. He is the top guy and him playing out of the slot more. I know it's going to be Myers is going to force into some of that. I think this game is going to be slaying in the ball. And Parker Washington is getting the targets per game with closing in on eight. These are going to be some catchable balls. It's a favorable matchup. Give me 5.5 on the receptions over. But you do have me a little bit interested talking about the air yard chair and thinking about that. That is maybe a pivot play that you guys could take a look at. If you want. And by the way, you can go and play these out with the NFL prop cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player props with betting pros prop bet cheat sheet quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections. Don't cover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props go and play through. Get your best bets in there and let betting pros help you out. All right. Let's go to number two on the props here. Will we start to get the unders, Mr. Undertaker. So I'm actually going to the Bengals Jaguars game chase brown. He failed me last week. So clearly now he's dead to me and I'm only betting his unders under 16 and a half rushing attempts for chase brown. This number really stood out to me when I was perusing through the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet because this number is a ludicrously high for a player like chase brown. And I'm one of the biggest chase brown fans. We're talking about him as a by low across the board and fantasy pros. But this number is just way too big for him in this particular match that the projections have chase brown at 14.9 carries. He's only going over this number one time in three games played this season. And that was get the Houston Texans. But dating back to last year, he's gone over this number just five times in 20 games played. That is a 20% hit rate towards the over or as I like to look at it and 80% hit rate towards the under, which is why we're playing this as one of my best bets this week. You look at the running back so far the season that have faced the Jaguars. No running back they have faced has surpass 12 carries and a little trivia for you Welsh. How many times do you think a running back had at least 17 carries against the Jackson Jaguars in the entire 2025 season? How many running backs and who do you think they were? Oh, well, I mean, how you're setting me up. It's got to be like two and I don't know. You're right. It is two two very, very good running back James Cook, one, referee. No, James Cook is not either of them. It was some referee and Jonathan Taylor did it twice against them, but those guys are just different offices, 90% snap share players, as much as I love Chase Brown, he's not in that category. He's not a 90% snap share type of player. He does seed some type of work to some Ajay Purine at times. So even last year in this same matchup where to your point about Parker Washington, he did have a monster game last year against the Bengals, even before he had his like full-fledged breakout. Last year against the Jaguars, Chase Brown topped out at 16 carries. But the big difference from that game versus this game is Joe Brogat hurt in that game. They had Jake Browning for the majority of that game, which is why they leaned on Chase Brown and so on. So I think that's kind of playing into why his number here is so high. And in fact, he did do it one time already against the Houston Texans, but that wasn't a game where the Bengals can really play ball control and just try to play defense because the Texans offense could not move the football against their defense. So I just think that this number is totally wrong for a player like Chase Brown in a game where you could see the Bengals have a negative game script. Like the Jaguars, this is going to be a close game. The spread is really tight. It's a high scoring affair. And I think the Chase Brown, yeah, he'll see volume and see touches, but I think his total volume will actually be a combination of rushing attempts and targets receptions out of the backfield versus just straight up carries. So this one, I really like a lot. The prop at Chi Chi agrees under 16 and a half carries for Chase Brown week or okay, I'm down with this one. This one's a slick one. I'm going to play the rushing yards, but we are going to go to the quarterback and we're going to play it over. And I'm finally going to dip my toe in the Malik Willis pool. That is somebody that, you know, wanted to try to dive into, wanted to see more rushing yards. Last week that started to click. He was able to drop 56, you know, in a spot where he didn't really rush a whole bunch. Prior to that, it was 49ers, it wasn't a big one. But I mean, I guess against the Raiders, he had also passed this number. But what we're looking at is a consensus line of around 28.5 projections are kind of all over the board. BP doesn't like in love with that one. PFF has Malik Willis is the number one rushing yards quarterback so far for this week. And taking a look at the Vikings and what they've done, they have given up this number. Two of the three outings they have not. But one of those was a five carry 42 yard output from Caleb Williams. They're averaging around almost six and a half yards given up per rush to quarterbacks. And Malik Willis is projected at the minimum of six. So I think the number establishes out well. And another thing, if you go and look at grades here, the Vikings are poor passing matchup for Malik Willis. Coverage on the tight ends is one of the better ones. Wide receiver coverage is pretty solid. It's a slightly above average. I mean, defensive line rush. We know they're going to just blitz the crap out of him. And they're also without Devon HN. They're without their number one weapon. I'm not sure that they're going to be comfortable with Jalen Ryder or Ali Gordon being in a spot to take over that massive check down receiving spot. So I think this is a situation more where Malik Willis is going to be running and running a lot. And I'm not playing rush attempts. I'm playing yards. And I think he can bust this one out over six yards per carry to quarterback so far to against the Vikings and Malik Willis going over 50. I think we're going to have another run of this. And to be honest with you, I'm not sure we're going to see Malik Willis under 35 yards rushing moving forward. So I think this is the top dog. This is a low number 28.5 over rushing yards for Malik Willis with this week. That's my number two. And I'm very, very much like that one. All right, let's go to our third of this is number five overall. We've both dropped two. This is going to be our third props for this bad boy. Erickson, why don't you kick us off? You're going to be jumping in. We love our Titans. We love to bet our Titans for touchdowns. We try to get them into the props. And you are dig and deep, my friend. Talk to us about Dr. Strange. Continuing to attack this Bengals Jaguar scheme. That was my one thing to watch on the tailgate this week because this game is going to be really, really exciting, except for Chase Brown and his rushing attempts. Other than that, it's all over is across the board, including Bretton Strange, the tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he has been under this number at 33.5 receiving yards all three games this season, but similar to the bet that we made a couple weeks back on Rashad Bayman. It's just, hey, don't look at the box score. We're going to be forecasting this future match up for Bretton Strange where better days are ahead for him. And when you look at this Bengals defense, they continuously bleed yardage to Titans. So far this season, they've allowed nearly a hundred receiving yards per game to Titans. That's second most in the NFL. Now a lot of it did come in garbage time against Dalton Schultz back when they played the Houston Texans, but even before that late production for Schultz, they still had given up a decent amount of yardage. And the fact that this number is so low for play like Bretton Strange, who over the last two weeks has run around on 82% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks. He's heavily involved in this offense. He plays almost every single snap offensively. The match up is there. And he's actually coming off his best game in the season where he did have three catch for over 30 yards and five targets. So it's continuing to trend upwards for Bretton Strange. And he has been receiving some positive coach speak this week talking about how yeah, we still want to get Bretton Strange more involved last week. They were talking about Jacobi Myers getting more involved in what happened. Jacobi Myers had his best game of the season. So I'm expecting that same type of pattern here with Bretton Strange having his best game in the season and a very favorable match up because that's how you attack this Bengals defense over the middle of the field with guys like Parker Washington and guys like Bretton Strange. So the fact that the Jaguars are going to be pushed for the first time all season this week. And it's not going to be a blowout or a game against the Denver Broncos of tough defense. You're going to see fireworks and Brent Strange is going to get over this really low number. I'm Lacey Mosley author actor standup comedian creator and host of scam goddess podcast. The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery fraud and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Deppery, Lamor and Morris and Nicole Byer. Oh, I scam them. What? I can talk to you for hour. You're a generational yapper like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And the scams run the gamut. 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Okay, I like it. I am going to be jumping 20-year guys. I think you had made a bet on him last week or maybe the second week. Give me some Matt Collins, man. Matt Collins, I love what he looks like in this offense right now, especially when they decide to throw him the ball. Not that I like anything about the Patriots offense in general. But I am a psychopath and I'm a sicko. And I still disgustingly believe that there's an opportunity for Drake May to bounce back. But I also don't have the cajonist to put a bet in on Drake May this week. So I'm finding another direction to kind of be invested. And that's in Matt Collins. And Matt Collins, last week, he had that big banger. Six catches, yards were there. Projection so far on BP. There's pseudo supportive of where I'm going. And that is the receptions. I've definitely kind of honed in on the reception market a little bit early on. Because it's 3.5. It's a low number right now. And there is some juice, but you can find this even under minus 120 in some spots. I think that's enough to jump in in this spot. When looking at the last previous matchups, they've actually gotten hit. The bills have on some of these outside receivers. Guys that can move around. Niko Collins had, I mean, there has been at least a receiver in every single game versus them. That is obviously hit over this mark with a couple spots this happening twice. But Niko Collins had seven catches. I'm on run nine tray Harris. Not lad McConkey was your big receiving marker. And if I do believe they're going to be competitive. And Drake Mays got a pretty heavy, if we're being honest, a pretty heavy passing total passing yards total for where he's been at. Then I think I want to be invested in Mac Collins here who last week had a 33% air yard share was running around 65% or else 11 a dot a 29% target share, which I love. And his where did I just lose it. I wanted to give you his first read a 30% first read share. So if you're going to be attacking these guys, which by the way, here's some corner grades. Christian Benford 95 of 100 D Alfred 96 of 100 and Maxwell Harrison outside the top 50 of 100 in corners. You're going to be able to pass on them. They're probably playing from behind Mac Collins has kind of been the number one guy or the possession guy. And I only need four receptions on this. I might even play around and put this to five, but that's going to be mine 3.5. Because I got a record to uphold here 3.5 receptions on the over. All right, we've got two more coming up across the board here. So strap in because you're going to get your unders in. But I want to tell you guys first about this new prediction market called polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $25 on your first trade when you deposit just 10 bucks. And they now got they've got this great new feature called squads to group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Download the polymarket app today and use code fp pod when you sign up. That's code fp pod to get $20 free after your deposit of just 10 bucks. All right, props number four, both of us going to get in the mud here a little bit. So get money with getting money with us here and not just take a dolphin, which I did earlier. Not just take a low total, but now drop an under on it, Erickson, do it. Yeah, something smells fishy with these dolphins running backs filling in for a Devon H. And so I'm going to go with Jalen right under 29 and a half rushing yards. And the dolphins backfill has been a highly discussed debate. I think this week with the injury to a chance to manage trying to figure out, okay, which guy am I going to go to? Who's going to get the volume and doesn't even matter because they're facing the Brian floor as Minnesota Vikings defense. Right. Does it actually even matter which one of these guys gets the volume because? Well, I looked at the markets today with these two running backs. I was really interested in playing an under on either Ollie Gordon or Jalen right. And it was actually kind of surprising to me that Jalen right actually has the higher numbers than Ollie Gordon does in the props. Well, he's first on the depth chart. I think that's why. And that's and that's it. The unofficial death chart that the PR guy puts together, not the head coach. Like, like, that's like, that's to me, I think just kind of interesting. So the only reason I'm only playing Jalen right instead of Ollie Gordon is just he has larger numbers. Whereas all the information that's been told to us is that it's going to be a full blown committee in some way, shape, performance. Everyone is going to have a different role. So that's what dolphins had coach Jeff Hathley said that. Very adamant that he was going to use all this guys to fill the void left by his star running back to him on a chance. Now, what does that actually mean and translate to the field like we don't know. So with all this ambiguity, I'm just pounding the under for these dolphins. Running backs and right has the highest number at 29.5. He also has the highest carry total at eight and a half rushing attempts. So I'm not confident that he's necessarily going to see that type of volume because it could be a committee. Ollie Gordon showed up last week, played very well and got a ton of work. Jalen writes also coming off an injury, foot, stinger, how effective is the extra going to mean? How much volume is the extra going to get? So I'm kind of fading the confidence that at least the market is showing a little bit in Jalen right by taking his under. And then going back to the matchup, it's absolutely terrifying. Vikings line the fourth few is rushing arts per game this season. They've allowed the lowest EPA per rush this season. Also dolphins all pro center Aaron Brewer popping up an injury report on Thursday with a hand injury. So if he can't go or he's not 100% there's going to be no push up front for the Miami dolphins playing on the road in Minnesota against his Brian forest defense. I'm taking the under I think this is a good process play and if it beats me so be it but one of these dolphins running backs is going to underwhelmed dramatically and just giving the fact that the right number is a little bit bigger. That's where I'm going to go. You know what it's kind of a correlative play to my Malik Willis over rushing yards as well that if you wanted to you know put some we have the same game way of the parley wizard. Same game parley wizard where that would be a correlative play to the over on Malik Willis and the under on Jalen right that you could put together. I like where you're going. I am going to be taking a low number but I told you I'm off I'm off of unders for this week even because last one and it broke my heart three and one. So we're going overs but this is a low total for stinky players so far this year but this is a get right spot and it's Colson leveling. Colson leveling has a very low rightfully so receiving yard total of 33.5 this week. Every projection market likes the over BP likes the over at around 38 fantasy pros if you want to look on the fantasy side of the different algorithm around 41 one of the biggest ones. You know obviously I say pf appreciate what they do 55 is their marker and you know hopefully that is barred out to like where he's been. But one of the thing like leveling last week doesn't jump out from like a target person he was actually only target 11% of the time first read percentage wasn't up there I think if agents and agents going to help this situation but here's a marker that helped push me in it besides every projection like in it besides BP giving this a positive grave a positive EV market projection EV's around 9% total on it but. And you're gone. at corner bat grades on the wide receivers, because I actually started this off with the Luther burden, but check these out. You've got three corners graded in the top 35 in the NFL, and you've got one who's the top 10 and Travis Brownlee, Thomas and Steven's both inside the top 35. So there's a shutdown on a dunesay and on burden. And this is a favorable matchup, bottom third against tight ends, two of the three games that they've played. The tucker craft stuff just went out, but against the Lions and the Titans, tight ends have each caught in five passes. They're averaging four catches to tight ends overall. And the yardage total is going over this with last week having 51 plus yards to tighten. So all of that to be said, Bage in a little bit more efficient. They get the ball in the air. They're trying to get leveling more involved, super low total, 33.5. Give me the over on Coulson, leveling. It's dirty. It's nasty. We're going to be back there. And we are going to end this bad boy off with some quarterback props. These are our final for the week here. We both got a quarterback that we're going to be playing. So Erickson, will you go over 50% on unders? You got two overs, two unders, where are we going? We're going back to the unders here. And this one kind of pains me because it involves the Detroit Lions, which I usually never will bet an under, but this game, the Lions and Panthers is not being played at Fortfield. The course field of the NFL, it's being played in Carolina where forecast is actually calling for some potential rain, which I really don't, doesn't actually happen because that would just ruin a lot because we know this Lions team just acts totally different. Jared Doft's indoor cat that being said, I still think even in pristine conditions as a chance he goes under this passing attempt number, which is listed at 34 and a half pass in attempts. Five star bet on the prop at cheat sheet this week. Jared Doft has gone under this number, three games as a road favorite. He's been under this number in five of his last ten road games. Carolina has faced the sixth lowest pass rate this season. To me, this is a matchup where you don't put Jared Doft out there in the elements and you just feed him your games. Like that seems like it would be the perfect game planning against this terrible Panthers run defense. That's how teams have attacked Carolina so far this year. We cordvex they faced, nobody has attempted more than 30 pass attempts against that. So the projection is leaning hard into the under. And if there is a chance where the rain is legit, then there's no way that the Lions are going to feel comfortable dropping back to throw, which Jared got 34 and a half times because that's just not his strength, especially in outdoor conditions. So I'm taking the under here and I think this is probably one of my favorite plays as well. I like it. This one I kind of dove into too. I don't think I've done a passing touchdown marker this week, but this year so far. But this one I love and I am going to Jordan love the team that has no running game whatsoever. Going up against Buckeneers team that is messy to messy defense. It's messy offense with Jalen Daniels out there. And there's one thing the Jordan love does this year or at least the Packers do their touchdowns. He's had two touchdowns in every single game he's played so far this year and that is the marker. By the way, I believe unless I just fooled myself out of it, it's plus money right around even on, but I'm seeing some plus money on 1.5 over on the touchdowns. And that's where I'm going to be rocking Buckeneers, they only have one game where they've given up over two touchdowns, but I think you have an extra messy situation that's going on so far. They don't cover tight ends. Well, they're not covering running backs. Well, wide receivers is a little better play, but there isn't much of a pass rush that's happening whatsoever. So this team isn't going to run. We just know they're going to pass get Tucker Kraft involved. I desperately was thinking about doing my Christian Watson first touchdown play golden has stepped up. This is just a phenomenal situation and the Buckeneers might be turning the ball over multiple times. This might hit in the first half 1.5 over touchdowns for Jordan love. That is my final prop. Those are 10 props that we have locked into, but we ain't done. We are going to get to some touchdowns here. We both had a touchdown last week. If you guys want to get in on the action, go to BenningPros.com/touchdown. You can check out the touchdown score report looking for an edge in touchdown bets. Our touchdown score report compares any time touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime bets head to BenningPros.com/touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today, Mr. Andrew Erickson, let's talk some touchdowns here. You are in the green. You have hit, I think, two of three weeks, at least you've got a couple touchdown calls here. Where are you going this week? Wherever the lines are going is where I'm going to attack because that has worked for my process. John Johnson week one, hoodie play, Detroit Lions, score touchdown, week three. Can you speak? Score touchdown. Who did he play, Welsh? Oh, yeah. Detroit Lions. So that's the process, man. That's how you hit on touchdown bets as you pick the players that are facing the Detroit Lions. So I have a tofer here today. I have two Carolina Panthers in my anytime touchdown bet calls, Tetsarol and McMillan is going to score touchdown this week against the Carolina Panthers or, excuse me, against the Detroit Lions. He plays with the Carolina Panthers. T-Mac has seen the most red zone targets and end zone targets this season among wide receivers without a touchdown yet. So he got shut down last week against the Cleveland Browns, but that will not be the case, especially with Jan Coker banged up, he's going to be the focal point of this passing attack against a really bad line. Secondary, so I think he finds the end zone or have opportunities to find the end zone and then the same kind of spiel with Darren Waller, just specifically how bad the lines have been against tight ends. They've allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends in three games. Six different tight ends are caught a touchdown against Detroit Lions and Darren Waller will be the seventh. So those are my anytime touchdown bets. Attack these lions. I love it. All right. What does five touchdowns do for you? So that number is the amount of touchdowns that the commanders have given up to tight ends this season. Five touchdowns is a ridiculous marker. Two touchdowns against the Eagles to tight ends, two to the Cowboys and last week, one. So obviously that would be the math. I was thinking it was AJ Barnard, but it was Sherbert. Five touchdowns given up every single week there's been a touchdown given up. So how about Tyler Warren with a plus 160 this week for any time touchdown? They're not afraid to even use them on a little hand off and short yardage, but this is a massive, massive advantage. We've also talked about touchdowns. I mean, I think that's also a play that you can jump into. But tight ends are a huge crutch, really anything on the inside. It seems Josh Downs is going to be beneficial. But I think this is going to be a really good spot for Tyler Warren. So plus 160 is mine. And then I've got the biggest anytime play here. I'm going to go to our boy Drake May told you I think he's going to get right. I guess I did find my way to be invested in him. He actually had two rushing touchdowns last year versus the bills. Like we've seen this play from Drake May before where he starts running. He doesn't have a rushing touchdown so far on the season. I do think they can pass some, but when they get into short yardage, they're desperate. He's desperate. He's talking about the shoulders, not the shoulder. Well, guess what? Put your shoulder down, bring it into the end zone five to one plus 500 for Drake May on something that he has done against this bills team before. And I believe this would be the first rushing touchdown to buy a quarterback against for the bills as well. So plus 500 is my play for that. Yeah. I love that call. And this is something that I've kind of been tracking where every week you see guys get touchdowns, but then they could call back on penalty. So Drake May had a rushing touchdown last week, but it got back on a penalty. And there have been times the season where guys one week, Darren Waller in week two or excuse me in week one, how to touchdown was called back on a penalty. What do you do the next week, scored a touchdown, Cooper Cup in week one, I guess Patriots, how to touchdown was called back, Cooper Cup last week, scored a touchdown. Like the coaches remember when these plays work and then they go back to it the following week. So I think this is a really sharp play, especially at five to one. I'm going to watch that game very closely and I think the thing I'm going to be telling this one. I know. I know you will. Of course, you will be locked in. All right. It's going to be fun. Oh, we haven't been catching it, but there's big, there's big odds for a reason here. Our first touchdown pets this week, no joke, not accident. Oh, by the way, we have both gone 65 to one this, this set you up for the year. I got to tell you, they were two I was looking at looking at Christian Watson again because all he does is catch first touchdowns. It's seven and a half to one for him to do that right now, though. Wow. It is another one that I thought was really interesting. I almost at any time touchdown, but I was too tempted as you were. So we are complete psychopath mode, 65 to one are both of our first touchdown plays. So please talk to us about your player and give us the pronunciation. I'm going with Nate Borkacher for the Jacksonville Jaguars tight end, rookie tight end at 65 to one to catch the first touchdown in the past when I've been able to hit on some of these bigger, long shot bets. It's always been I find a game that's high scoring and you pick a random tight end on one of the teams. And that's five syllables in the name. I gotcha. Preferably for the longer the better is actually what we're the pro chair. So I will say positive coach beat for Borkacher. And last week he had one target and it was inside the 10 yard line. Okay. So it was close. He did not catch them all, but he was out there in goal line opportunities. So the Jaguars strike first against Cincinnati Bengals. I assume that they're going to try to come out aggressive because they know the firepower that saw the other side with Joe Burrow and company, I think that if it's not Brent and Strange scoring the first touchdown, it could be Borkature. So at 65 to one, again, Patriots, bills, Jaguars, Bengals, those are my two games I'm going to be locked and loaded and the one o'clock slate. So, and I know, well, you're going back to the 49ers after, I mean, Kyle, the Kyle you checked play should have hit in some way, shape or form. I couldn't, I couldn't believe it didn't hit, but you're not, you're, you're not going to be swayed to go with me or not. No, I've got to be honest with you, I almost went back to use check. This feels like the week they go back to it. I almost did it, but I decided to go, I thought this one was nice and dirty and it's great. If Mike Evans plays awesome, is it likely that he does an and or is super limited? Yes. There are no live bodies. They were picking up Brandon Cooks and Dante Pettis, but you know who they do like to put out there? They like to put out Jordan Watkins. Jordan Watkins I like to play as a three and if Evans is out, he can kind of play that role. You, as Stutley talked about on, I don't know if it was tailgate, but how we might see Sir Tann start to lock down on the middle for a George Kittle and they might go play action Christian McCaffrey and Bam, Mr, I mean, Deebo doesn't catch passes. He just gets yards. He doesn't get receptions. Jordan Watkins does 65 to one. Jordan Watkins first touch down, lock it up, but you know, it'll be Kyle use check. Maybe play a little bit on both of those. All right. There you go. So what are yours? Your favorite props? Drop them below. You got to first touch down. Oh, baby. Let's see what those look like. Jump in the comments, interact with the show. Hopefully you guys are enjoying it, having fun and download the betting pros app as well. So not only can you track all of your bets, track your success throughout, track your favorite markets, betting pros app will also be able to curate bait based on some of your betting tendency tendencies. It's going to throw you out some suggestions, but there's lots of data to research. It is an amazing tool. We got lots of different systems as well, tracking how there's positive ROI. Go and check it out for yourself, download the betting pros app. That is going to do it for us, though, for Andrew Erickson. I'm Chris Welsh. Good luck on all your bets for week four, and I'll talk to you next time right here. I'm betting pros. Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok @BettingPros and Instagram @BettingProsNFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/BettingPros. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of SCAM Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Which week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? 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