NFL Week 3 Prop Bets & Parlays

[MUSIC PLAYING] When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp. The secure messaging app that brings the whole group together use polls to settle dinner plans. Send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom's 60th. And never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end-to-end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp. Message privately with everyone. Learn more at WhatsApp.com. You're listening to draft games network. If you like to make your NFL games a little bit more interesting, you've come to the right place. It's the Even Money podcast with Ross Tucker and Steve Pezick. Yeah, Vegas, baby. Vegas, it is the Even Money betting podcast. And I am Ross Tucker. He is Steve Pezick. We do it twice a week now. Even when I'm in a hotel room on a Thursday because I got a game for radio tonight, remember, we're having a lot of success with our normal Tuesday show and those bets where we go against the spread as well as the overunders. Today is about line movement, injury information with the great doctor, shall. Then we get to the props. Steve, you were three and one, by the way. And we, too, on your prop bets. Then we throw in a par layer, too, because we know you guys like parlays and that's fine. We like to help you guys with what you like. All right, so check them out at Pezick Sports. I'm at Ross Tucker NFL. We don't have time to mess around though. We got to get to some line moves, Steve. Let's start with Indy. They are now up to minus four against the Colts. So some money coming in on against the Titans or some money coming in on Indy. Atlanta is up to minus five and a half in their game. So your thoughts on those line moves. Yeah, I think this is anti-tenancy money. Tennessee, woof, 3.2 yards per play, Ross. That's just atrocious. And then Atlanta beat down against Minnesota that ground game, just tremendous. Betters are very bullish on the Falcons. I also think, by the way, just looking at it right now, I just popped it up on Draft Kings again. Colts now up to minus four and a half. So it's all the way up to four and a half now for Indy. And Atlanta, I think Tuesday morning, Steve, I don't think a lot of people knew about those o-line injuries. I think that is part of why that line has moved as well. Tell me what's going on with the Steelers, where they're now the favorites against the Patriots. Yeah, well-known sports handicap or release, Pittsburgh, and that moved the number. I don't agree with this. I think the game, yeah, you can make the case of Patriots, it should be a one point favorite. Even both these teams are supposed to win 8 1/2 games. What is the Steelers showing to make them the favorite? I could only look towards New England. OK, and then Jacksonville is now laying 2 1/2. So it's been bet up to 2 1/2. Yeah, I think Houston being banged up and maybe Brian Thomas learns how to play wide receiver again for Jacksonville. We'll see. That was beyond troubling the way he played last week. What about Dallas? They are now the favorite. They were the underdog, right, against the Bears. And now they're the favorite. It's been ping ponging back and forth. And this is a great example. We talk teasers all the time. This is the type of game. Hey, I would tease either one of these. You give me plus 1 1/2 up to plus 7 1/2. I would take Dallas, they're the Bears. So now I'm teasing the Bears. Yes. Well, what's great about it is on Tuesday, we teased the Cowboys up to 7 1/2. So now we essentially have nine points of value there, a point and a half, obviously, because we teased them up to 7 1/2 when they were just getting a point and a half. Now they're the favorite. So got to feel pretty good about that. I guess before we get to Dr. Chao, I'm just curious, Steve, in general, are there any week, three trends that we should be aware of? Yes, if you have a team that's 0 and 2, no one wants to start out 0 and 2, but they really don't want to start 0 and 3. And so teams play, it's no longer a marathon. Now it's a sprint. You got to save your season. These teams that are underdogs that have not won a game yet have been historically good, Ross, 48, 27 and 1. Now some might say in the media, hey, that's because the market is over reacting to their first two bad weeks. I personally feel it's not so much the market. It's that the players and the coaching staff, these coaching staff, they're on the hot seat. And everyone's jobs are on the lines. You can speak to that, right? That no one wants to have to move to Carolina next year because they're about to get fired. So the whole organization goes ahead and stresses these early season games, emphasizes it because their jobs are on the line. You want to comment on that? Yeah, there's no doubt about it. I mean, they haven't won a game in months and months and months. They're desperate to win a game, which is why it's funny. Because on Wednesday's Ross Tucker football podcast, Steve, that's when I make my picks straight up, not against the spread. But the point I made is there's going to be in my opinion at least two, oh, and two teams that will beat two and oh teams. I don't know which one it is. I don't know which game it is, but I'd be surprised if that doesn't happen. And every year people are surprised, like, oh my gosh, this win list team beat this undefeated team. Listen, it's only two games. It's a small sample size. The team that are two and oh, probably aren't really that good. The teams are oh and two, probably aren't really that bad. And I think that's why there's always some surprises this week, this time of year, in those two and oh, oh and two matchups. The thing is, Steve, we don't like surprises. We like knowing the information ahead of time, which is why we love to bring on our guy, Dr. David Chau, every single week. All right, Dr. Chau. These segments have been so, so helpful. Already through this season, really been helpful for Steve with his prop bets. We'll get to how well he did yet again this week on the prop bets momentarily. But we've got to get in the injuries with you. You guys all know this already. But certainly, check him out at pro football doc or the website at Sixscore. It's sportsinjorycentral.com, Sixscore.com. These guys are over 56% against the spread with their bets the last few years, strictly based on injury information, which is amazing. Let's start with the game tonight. As people can tell, watching on YouTube, YouTube.com/RossTuckerNFL, I am in Buffalo in a hotel room. I've got the dolphins and the bills tonight on radio, Westwood One Radio. What do we need to know in this game, the night, Dr. Chau? Who are you looking at in terms of prop bets because of injuries? Well, first of all, we've been telling you all years since pre-week one, Miami is a dumpster fire. Offensive line issues, which have gotten worse, defensive issues, especially in the secondary. And now the chatter is Mike McDaniel might get fired, right? Who knows, but that part is out. But our take on this game is both sides. The defenses are injured for Buffalo, Ed Oliver, and Jack Thompson and Matt Milano have injury issues. The secondary is getting healthier, but still not 100%. Storm Duck is still out for Miami. They've got five cornerbacks out for Miami. They've got some linebacker issues. The offenses of both teams index healthier than the defenses, more so on Buffalo than Miami. And I know it's a high total, but our numbers show that we index at 58 points instead of the 50 and a half based on the healthier offenses over the defense. And with that, in terms of props, we're liking Keon Coleman and Tyree Kill. I think it's 64 and a half and something like 41 and a half. And Steve can chime in on that. Wow, that's amazing. I'll get to Steve to get his thoughts on it for sure. But that's crazy. You guys have it at 58 points and the total's 50 and a half. That is juicy. Tyree Kill is 64 and a half. Keon Coleman leads the bills and receiving. He's at 42 and a half. So that's a good one, Dr. Chow. All right, what about all the quarterback injuries? We know that the Vikings and Bengals have both lost their quarterbacks. Although you had some really interesting things to say about JJ McCarthy's injury, Dr. Chow. I think I saw it on a social media clip. But kind of your thoughts on how injured JJ McCarthy really is and what the Vikings are doing. There's no question he has an ankle injury. But remember, he also finished the game. And now he's said to have a high ankle spring. We all remember Patrick Mahol was playing through high ankle sprains, right? And recently, and in playoffs and things like that, recently. I'm not saying JJ McCarthy's not injured. And I'm saying Kevin O'Connell is doing the right thing by JJ McCarthy. And it really has to-- you have a basically rookie who's struggled seven out of eight quarters. Can you really put him out there when he's not 100%. You can put Patrick Mahol's out there. You can roll Matthew Stafford out there without a week of practice. You can't roll out JJ McCarthy without a week of practice. And that's what Kevin O'Connell is doing, saying, look, he's injured. He's out, taking him out of the equation. He's not benched. He's injured. It's highly mind health. The Panthers did it rookie season with Bryce Young. And the other thing is you got to remember Carson Wentz played with O'Connell in the Rams. But he's a new addition. Carson Wentz needs all the practice reps this week. So this is where it was a very clear decision. It is hiding behind healthy. He is injured. But it's not, quote, that bad. It's just the right coaching decision. And of course, off of that, we do some more injury things. And then even think about this. One's the last time at the Jets or any team that you saw a quarterback with a concussion or any injury. Whether it's JJ McCarthy or Justin Fields, any quarterback get ruled out immediately early in the week. Concussions never clear to Friday or Saturday. So why did he get ruled out already? Most times coaches say, well, it's possible. Why? Because they want to go with Tyrod Taylor. Why? Because when you have a 1A1B, maybe you want the guy that practices all week. Once again, if it's Jared golf, you're holding on all week. If it's Josh Allen, you're holding on all week for hope to play and clear the concussion. So that's a little bit of the injury inside from working in the NFL and looking at these things. Ooh, that is really interesting. OK, what about some of these other quarterbacks that we don't know about? We know about some of these other ones. And people can take the under on Justin Jefferson, if they want, because it's Wednesdays out there. He's only been there a couple of weeks. But what are you thinking in terms of Jaden Daniels with the Spray knee and Brock Purdy with the toe? We thought he'd be out a couple of weeks, but he was out there on Wednesday on a limited basis. Yeah. Brock Purdy, when the announcement came out about turf toe for him, Kyle Shanahan said two to five weeks. And at Sports Central, we said immediately, a lot closer to two to three weeks than five weeks, not going on IR. So he's out there some. It's a possibility. It is front foot, which helps him. It becomes a coaching decision. If you have to ask us, it seems very likely he plays in week four questionable in week three here, coming up in terms of Brock Purdy. And Jaden Daniels, look, interesting, interesting. DMP yesterday, DMP going to be DMP today, Thursday. But remember last season with the ribs, he was DMP Wednesday, DMP Thursday, practice limited on Friday, and beat Chicago with the big Hail Mary bomb at the end. It's not unprecedented. I put up video, Jaden Daniels getting hit, where people thought, oh, he's done for the season with the high ankle or knee, and he's played through. He's been a little bit Patrick Mahomes and Gumby and Flexible. So I am not counting out Jaden Daniels yet for this game, but Marcus Mariotta is capable as well. Some other notes just that you sent me, Dr. Chao. No Van Noy for the Ravens. We don't know about Marlon Humphrey. So you kind of like some of the over props for Jared golf and James and Williams. It sounds like Jalen Johnson is going to miss the rest of the season, perhaps, for the Bears. So you like the CD Lamb over receiving prop. But the team I wanted to ask you about is the Bucks. I mean, you always talk about cluster injuries. We talk a lot about the skill guy injuries, but this old line now for the Bucks, they lose the right guard mock for the season, get a key, the right tackles out. They already were moving guys all over the place. The center, Barton, the left tackle, the left guard, Brettison, to center. This is not good now, Dr. Chao. No, and nobody knows offensive line better than you do, Ross. And you know, obviously, they started the season without their number one offensive line. And Tristan Wurfs at less tackle. Gottkey, we thought wasn't going to play against Houston in week two. He played some and left pretty early. And you know, that led to the under there on that game, which we had thought as well. And now you have 60% of the offensive line out. But it's worse because you mentioned the shuffle, right? When you kick the center out, it becomes center two, right? So you got center two, right, tackle two, you know, everything is shuffled in their first game. And that makes it difficult. And that's the thing we do with player edge in props at sports injury central. It's not about the health of Bucky Irving. It's about the health of his offensive line against the defense that he's playing against, right? And so that's how we calculate some of these things. And then you do make a good point. I think it's the first time ever that we have three 50 point games. And we lean based on the algorithm of health of the offense over the defense to the over on all three of them. We mentioned Buffalo Miami Detroit Baltimore. And then Dallas, Chicago, especially with CD Lamb, which is interesting. Last week, our biggest player of the week, and we talked about it on your show, is I'm on Ross St. Brown 66 and 1/2 yards. He hit that in the first quarter in that game against the Chicago Bears. Make sure you check out Dr. Chao at pro football doc. Go to sportsinjorycentral.com. I mean, if you're not getting this injury information, you're not doing everything you can to succeed, especially on the prop bets. Thank you so much, Dr. Chao. We really appreciate it as always. Thank you. [MUSIC PLAYING] More great stuff right after this. [MUSIC PLAYING] All right, listen, it's almost impossible at this point to keep track of all your finances, the different accounts. I mean, all the streaming services, there's a reason why my friends at Monarch came up with this, right? They didn't want you to be leaving money on the table. They know how busy we all are. This is not just some other finance app. And they know the impact that finances can have on couples, right? It's not good. Do not let financial opportunity slip through the cracks. Use code even at monarchmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That's 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with the code even. Trying to save you guys some money so you can increase that bankroll. Monarchmoney.com code even. October will be here before you know it. That's when your boy, that's me, is getting a new shower, which I desperately need. I don't know how they do it at West Shore Home. They can actually make the shower area bigger, which I need. We did not do that right when we first bought this house. Anyway, right now you can get 25% off all projects. So that's your bathroom, windows, doors, full house, flooring, which they need. That's probably my next project, by the way. 12 months, no payment, no interest. That is nice. Making it even easier to get started. They're going to give you an extra $500 off on top of the 25% just by scheduling now at West Shore Home.com/rust. So make sure you go to that website for details. West Shore Home.com/rust. You can see all of it before and after pictures from the projects I've done at my house. All right, Steve, how about last week? Okay, and I don't know how many of these bets were because of Dr. Chow and how many weren't. But in terms of, by the way, both the parlay's lost, but that's the deal with parlay. You took commanders plus three and a half, Jacobs rushing yards under whatever. We had all Thursday night parlay's last week. But your props, Debo Samuel, over four and a half receptions. That hit, Tyler Warren, over 44 and a half receiving yards. That hit, Jacobi Myers, over 57 and a half receiving yards. That also hit. And then the only prop you got wrong last week, Steve, was Omari and Hampton. You had the over 59 and a half rushing yards. Interestingly, they just have not been able to run the ball that effectively, have the chargers, hasn't heard them. They're still winning, but that one did not come through for you. But three and one on your prop bets, Steve, you've been real, I think that makes you, I don't know. I think Graves is going to send me an updated sheep. I think that makes you five and one on your prop so far this year. Yeah, and just to clarify, everyone wants these parlay. So we're going to give you at least one parlay each week. We're not putting that in the record because I am not personally betting it. But hey, you want to order a steak well done? I'll go ahead and put it in the order into the kitchen, all right? But I'm not personally betting the parlay. Yep, and that's the thing, just everybody knows we're not grading the parlays. Those are just for fun for you. Those are what we would do if we wanted to do a parlay. We are grading the prop bets that is part of it. And Steve, just real quick, the prop bets are usually where you really make most of your money, right? The props as opposed to against the spread and teasers. That's a great question. So, no, the teasers I make end of the week, the teasers are the most profitable. Early in the week, love betting NFL sides, but a lot of times, you know, the numbers get away. And then there's not any value anymore. So it really depends. It's not unusual. I'm walking through a sports book on Sunday and people like Steve, who do you like? And I'm like, and I'm going to give him prop bets, not sides. Yes. Got it, okay. All right, so let's get to any prop bets that you like this week. I know you got several. We'll start with the props and we'll make sure we hit the parlays at the end. What props do you have for us this week, Steve? Well, Dr. Chow talked about these high totals and he likes SIC likes overs. So I'm going to follow that theme. Let's go to tonight's game. Let's play Miami's running back H A and who's running like a beast. As bad as Miami's been, this dude has been ball and going to go over 99 rush and receiving yards in a game that there should be lots of offense for obviously for Buffalo, but some for Miami as well. Well, so I really like that because H A no running back has more receiving yards or catches since last year than H A they're going to get in the ball a lot you would think, especially by the way, Steve, with Milano out, Milano is like the bill's coverage linebacker. So that makes the H A bet even better. Is there, I know you had texted me this, is there a way to for people to parlay that tonight if they want to have a parlay for the Thursday night game? Yeah, you could certainly parlay with Miami as well. I like Miami plus the 12 and a half and so obviously it's correlated to take a little haircut on what it pays, but Miami to H A and over makes sense. Okay. H A and over and plus the Miami plus 12 and a half is a Thursday night parlay. For those of you that are interested again, we're not getting great on that. We are grading Steve on the over 99 combined rush receiving yards for H A and all right. What about him? He talked about some injuries in that cowboys and bears matchup. Does that make you more likely to dive in any of the props there? Absolutely. Should be lots of offense. The cornerbacks are going to be spinning it and they're going to be spinning it to Odunse and Lam. We're going to go Lam over 80. We're going to go Odunse over 60 and a half on these numbers for so the two stud wide receivers over. By the way, I went to the park, I spun the ball at age 62 with my son. I was good today. Really? Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I like it. Absolutely. I was stoked. Haha. I love it. By the way, Odunse had a good game against Alliance. He would have had even better if he didn't have that drop. So I like that quite a bit. That's actually an interesting point, Steve. We could talk about some time is like, you know, picking guys that have a couple drops because you think that that's probably not the case, the next game, but I know that that's how they do the numbers a little bit based on how many yards they had the previous game, but you know they should have had more yards and they just had a drop. Exactly. And I don't think it's fair that Cooper Cup and and Puka and Lad McConkey are allowed to watch the ball when they catch it. No one else in the NFL is allowed to by the rules. They're always looking away. Haha. I like, by the way, both LAM and Odunse have had some drops. So I feel like you're almost getting some value out of that unless they have more drops. By the way, what about any other parlays for for this weekend's action that maybe stand out to you, Steve? Sure. So I'm going to copy what Atlanta did in their last game when they ran all over the Vikings. I certainly see the possibility of them doing that to Carolina, just an atrocious team. So three teamer, we're going to play Panics under 220 yards passing because Atlanta is just going to be ground and pound and we'll go ahead and play Bijan over 81 rush yards. And our jeers, he'll get plenty of carries in the fourth quarter if Atlanta separates. So our jeers over 43 rushing yards. Wow. Okay. So anytime you do a parlay, the key is to try to have it correlated and not take too much of a haircut in terms of how much you're being charged for that correlation. The most ideal situation, find a parlay that's correlated that you're getting the true odds on. That's much more difficult to find though. Okay. So for the props, we got CDLAM over 80 receiving yards, Roma, Dundse, over 61 receiving yards. We also have H&N tonight, over 99 rushing and receiving yards. Even for the parlay, he likes Miami plus the 12 and a half with H&N and then also Panics under 220, Bijan over 81, algears, over 43. You know, we didn't really talk about this with Dr. Chow that in depth, but the the Niners game has been bet up a little bit as well. You know, they are now up to minus two and a half. I guess Steve, with the possibility that that party plays, well, that number is baked in that party is playing because with party, the Niners are about a point better than Arizona and the line's minus two and a half, one and a half for home fields. So the market is saying, party is in, the market is saying Daniels is out right now with the point spreads. Got it. Okay. I'm going to get to an email question, Steve, which we get to do sometimes. Three leg teasers. He wants to know if plus 140 is a good payout for hitting three leg teasers. No. He says he did plus 160. Can't play. What's that? Plus 160 is your number. Plus 140. No good. Okay. This is from Brian Wyatt. He says it's the same math as minus 125 for a two leg. Is that correct? Absolutely. It probably is, but now it's harder because now you're stacking an extra leg on your parlius. No reason to do that. If you shop around, you should be able to find minus 120 at the worst minus 125 with the two teamers and the variance goes through the roof as you start stacking more and more teams. You got to get them all right to cash. Why would you add another element to it for the same odds? That doesn't really make a whole lot of sense. I came out on social media at FezExport. I am at Ross Tucker NFL. We are at Ross Tucker pod. You can always get all these bets in black and white patreon.com/rtmedia. Why not? Ten bucks a month. Get the vaunted grade spreadsheet patreon.com/rtmedia. Good luck, everybody. Hope you guys win some money. And now a message from McAfee. Your package couldn't be delivered. You owe thousands and unpaid tolls. You want a free gift. If texts like these sound familiar, McAfee can help. McAfee automatically identifies texts and email scams as well as AI generated audio to help you stay safe. If they're faking it, they're not making it past us. Get award winning scam detection today. McAfee.com/keepitwheel Kidding when I say NFL by Abercrombie broke the internet last year. And I think this season's lineup is even cooler. And so does my wife, who keeps stealing all my hoodies. Stay fit for the season and Abercrombie's newest arrivals. Shop NFL by Abercrombie in the app online and in store. Much draft, all on the DraftKings Network, YouTube, or subscribe to the podcast on your favorite platform.