NFL Week 3 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2222)

This is an I Heart podcast guaranteed human. What's up, friends? A welcome to bedding pros. This is the week three prop show. We've got 10 props for you that Andrew Erickson and myself, Chris Welsh are locked into for the week. We're going to tell you how we did last week. We've got the Jameer Gibbs roll over touchdown game. We're going to even get some touchdown scores and a little bit of first touchdown action. That's what's on docket for all of week three for us. But as we have to do, Mr. Andrew Erickson, we've got to review how we did last week. And you know what, I'll take it. You sacrificed one of your great wins week one. You were four and one. You gave it to me and we both came out 500. We were both three and two last week as we take a look at the big board here on the BP side on the year. You are now seven and three. I'm an even five and five. You have one touchdown call. I have none still. We're also placing out the ROI, which will, once we start hitting them, it'll be good. But three and two last week, no touchdown calls will take it. You know, we want to be better. We had some close one. I mean, you should deserve the touchdown call for Terry McCullough. Like you had like three opportunities. He had so many opportunities. I was tilting my face off being like, why is this guy not catching touchdown? He had a touchdown on the field. It's called touchdown reversed, not to be touchdown. And then he's wide open on the wide receiver reverse play from Antonio Williams. And of course, the rookie wide receiver misses Terry McCullough when he's wide open in the end zone. So and of course, the Von Diggs course touchdown. Like, yeah, he's going to throw a touchdown every single week. But no, not for Terry McCullough in zero. Nope. Well, I mean, you know, good logic. We were in there. We definitely have got to prove on the touchdowns. Glad to both of us check into like plus 500 weeks. I'm at 500 euro or you're still crushing it for the year. You haven't had a bad week, you know. So knock on wood. That's the big plus. And then so those are the stats you guys want to keep track. I know you got to be our accountability. So you're going to let us know some other fun stats for the BP show. If we look at the Jameer Gibbs, the Jameer Gibbs rolling touchdowns. Yes, we have a Jameer Gibbs to touchdown roll over this week. So would you like to give us a little update? What does that look like? Cause I don't remember what is like the return. Are we like 1.8 or we just under two total units after two weeks of betting it? Because I know the first week was okay. The second week was like big heavy juice. You've won both. But what are we going into week three with? I think it's like minus 220 for any time touchdown. And this is looking like around two-ish units. Do I have that right? Yeah, because it's basically double after the winning back to back weeks at heavy juice, but you take all the winnings, you bet on it again. And so far, yeah, we're up two units with the place. So you'll bet the two units on this one. And then the return will be about a unit. Yeah. So we're playing the game like we're getting up there. Once you get into the higher weeks, if you guys are playing along on the Jameer Gibbs run. And I do have a little tracker. It's probably way too preemptive. And frankly, I'm setting myself up here. But the is it the under tracker, which we don't have to have official graphic for? It is 2.0. We are 2.0 on the official. Is it the unders for me and unders are going to come into play here. So that's all of our accountability, if you will, Erickson. Let's jump into the props if you're ready to do it. You guys can do that as well. Download, make sure you have the betting pros app downloaded. You guys can go check out all the great data. You can track your bets. You can follow along and as long as you got a premium side of it, you can do all your data research as well. So make sure betting pros has got you set. And all you got to do is download the app and get set. And we are going to jump into prop one for the week 10 total. This is our top dog here. We're both going to play a couple running backs. Mine actually has a trend for both of us. And I'm a little bit of a thief. And you know what, maybe I should just get mine out of the way, Erickson, because we have to acknowledge I stole this a little bit from you. And I did not realize it. So as many know, we have a Gajillion shows together. We talk about a lot of stuff. And we are both very pro quench on Juckkins this week. And what ended up happening is we talked about this. We both were like, I think you would immediately say, you're like, I love rushing yards. I'm like, I love rushing yards too. And I said, oh my God, look at this 12 and a half rush attempts. This was like 30 hours ago. And then what ended up happening, that skyrocketed. It went up to 14 and a half, 16 and a half. And then it settled around 15 and a half. And in my late night of it, I was like, well, I don't want to do the rush attempts. Now and the rushing yards hadn't really moved up. So I put it in not realizing that you were going to go in that range. So I am a thief of props, but I know you're going to back this one with me. Quench on Juckkins is not lived up to the expectation, but the expectation opens himself up this week going against the Carolina Panthers, who have on average given up 173 yards on the ground to running backs, which is the big play here. The Cleveland Browns were also able to establish a past game, which is, I think, the most important part of this because now they're opening up the field. And Quench on Juckkins, you also see the rush attempts moving up for. We're now pushing into the 1617 range. And if you look at what they were doing, six, almost six and a half yards per carry, Carolina is giving up. We've seen Quench on Juckkins have big attempt games. We've definitely seen him have some of that juice before, but it hasn't been able to get going. This is the week we're pro Quench on Juckkins. I originally had the number of 55. It's moved to 59.5. So that's the number. So I'm pushing it over 60. So that's some of my analysis in my prop, but I do have to publicly apologize because I stole it from under you and I hope that we both smash it. I hope you can forgive me. You didn't have to steal it. It's a, it's a good play and we're all in on it. And you don't think I don't take some of your picks and put it in my betting pros primary and do it all the time. I'm like, Oh, yeah. There's Daniel Jones pick that was just talking about. That was great. What a sweat that was under the past. Over time, go over time. What a, what a fun smile. I'm like getting ready dude. I was calculating the whole time. I'm like, OK, he's at 30. What did they do this drive? And then it was, it was an awesome sweat. That was actually, it's not super fun. We got the perfect run out when it came to how that overtime period played out. They get the big play to tread well. But again, like, this is why props are fun, man. Like when you get down to this, you're like, it's an overtime. There's no way he's going to finish under it. And then that's the thing with the under dude. Like, you got to sweat the whole game. Yep, with these unders because one one play can make the big difference. So you did, I did not steal this prop. Again, I also bet the Jeremiah love prop last week that you were on also hit the over. So I think that when we see eye to eye without even discussing it, I think it's just more conviction about certain plays. So Quinchot Judkins, it's a, the Quinchot Judkins week here. Fantasy Pro is a betting pros, all the Quinchot Judkins. We had a time to figure out where like, was it possible to do an entire 10 card prop show on Judkins props? But then we thought better of ourselves because we're not that big of psychopaths. Russian Timz might still be in play if it moves down a little bit. There's a lot of different sides to this, but at the end of the day, this team wants to get Quinchot Judkins going. They want to give him the attempts. I know it's been sitting around 12. The line is moving up. This is a great spot. It's as simple as that 59.5 over. That's the play, Ericsson's with it. That's my bet. So Ericsson, let's get to your first prop that I did not steal. But I do love this one. You told me about this one a couple days ago and I very much like this one. Yeah, I'm going to go with Rashad White over two and a half receptions. Last week, the shoot from the hip over two and a half receptions was Rashad Bayban. And that came through with flying colors. So I want to give that a shout out to the coach speak index because that was kind of what turned me on to Rashad Bayban as a player that the coaches are really high on this guy. And they really want to get more involved and again, shout out to Greg Brainhouse. But that's been the buzz with Rashad White this week. It's been, yeah, we really wanted to feature Rashad White. He looked really good at the end of week two. That's why we were getting him more involved. So I'm expecting more of the same from Rashad White as potentially to lead in this backfield with the Washington commanders ahead of Jacobi Kroski merit. If you look at the snaps, Rashad White paid 52% of the snaps to Bill's 37%. He also had six carries through nine yards. So I played 93% of the snaps on third down. So that's really the selling point here with white is I don't really care about how many carries he gets. All I'm looking at is the game script in terms of their playing Seattle, even though they're at home. Is it true that Sam Darnell might play in this game? So I think that Seattle rolls here. That was one of my favorite best bets in terms of picks against the spread. I feel very comfortable laying the points with Seattle. So a negative game script means to me that the commanders are going to be throwing a lot in the second half. And that means check down city to running backs because that's the only thing Seattle gives up defensively. They suffocate you in every other single way, except they bleed targets to running backs in the passing game because Mike McDonald knows, yeah, sure, double it off to your running back. We don't care. So be just through the air with your running backs through two games Seattle ranks third in receptions. 10th and targets to running backs in the passing game to stray overs to rookie running back should air in price went over his receptions against the sea hawks. And then you saw, excuse me, not should air in price reminder, Stevenson, Jerry prices is on the sea hawks reminder Stevenson went over his receptions against the sea hawks. And then last week the one that you had you had the receiving yards with Jeremiah love also went over his receptions prop against the Seattle sea hawks. So continuing the trend here, targeting running backs in the passing game against Seattle who last year 2025, they allowed the most catches and targets to running backs in the passing game. So white at two and a half receptions after he had six targets last week, caught all six for 40 yards. This one is an easy over for me. By the way, Jeremiah love was a little bit of sweat too. Last week. A couple sweaty bets. Half a yard. Yep. We got it by half a yard. And by the way, he had he had two for 16. And then he caught another pass. And I was just like, oh my gosh, don't have the negative yard. - Okay, go backwards, any caught one that was zero yards. I was waiting for the correction, but there you go. Juddkins, Rashad White, that's how we're going to start this bad boy off props. Number two, coming up here in a second, but find the best NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. We'll talk about that here in a second. We use the cheat sheet whenever we are putting our bets together, funny enough, we had a couple bets. I had a couple of extras that I like and Erickson had a really astute point and said, go and check out the cheat sheet and the analyzer specifically to go and help you out to maybe make that be the differential between what we put on the show. What did it hate the most if I wanted to get this other one in? Just one of the many ways that we use it, but you can quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros dot com slash props. Erickson, let's go back to you because it feels weird me starting it off here. So let's go back to you. And actually, this is one I kind of had gave you a little bit. What I mentioned is this is one that I was originally thinking about and then I went into another direction and then I just shaved off my, what was it, Justin Herbert bet that I wanted to do, but this is one that I was actually a little scared to do and I appreciate you because you have no fear. You are the lantern, you are the green lantern and you are locking this down. So let's hear prop number two that I was too scared to do. It is quench on Juddkins week, but it's Omerian Hampton hate week here. I think it's pros and betting pros unfortunately. So Omerian Hampton is going to finish under 61 and a half rushing yards. I think that we both agree we look at this matchup and I know that in the sheet, you originally had the Justin Herbert going over his either passing attempts or passing yards prop the passing yards because I think that's really their only recipe for any type of offensive success playing against the Buffalo bills bills are going to put up a 30 burger on their defense. They're going to have to try to keep pace and if they just try to run the ball like they done last two weeks where they ranked 31st and EPA per rush 31st and yards before contact per attempt. They are getting no room upfront from this blocking unit that has already been banged up in the interior. So playing on the road against a gym Leonard bills defense that has been selling out to stop the run. This is not the charming German run defense for the bills. I know traditionally it's always been, oh, it's so easy to run the ball on the bills. Gotta yada yada, no longer the case under a new DC and a new defensive scheme. There are number one in the NFL and stuff rate at 33%. So a third of the time your running back is getting a cloud of dust. That's all that's happening here and with Omerian Hampton, that's kind of his profile, right? He's not ripping off explosive runs. He's been looking for contact now that worked last week against the Raiders. He put almost over 100 rushing yards, but I just don't think that's going to be the case here with the charge of the intensity from a negative game script. Both the running backs of the bills have faced this season have failed to surpass 60 rushing yards. Despite the fact that they combine for 36 carries did Montgomery had 20 carries for 60 yards against the bills defensive week one and junior gives could also not really get going on the ground in that Thursday night game where the lines were playing from behind basically from the jump. So I think that the charger's offense is still struggles specifically on the run and I'm going to take the under here on Omerian Hampton under 16 and a half rushing yards. And also the other out to his fee fumbles again, that'll be a third game in a row. He might get benched. Give me this bet back. Give me this back. There's a great analysis. I love your analysis there. It was the last week after I did all of this that you did a way better than I would have. But then I saw I was like, oh, yeah, the total from last week and it just like slightly scared me off but really great breakdown in this. That's why you get it. You you own that one where I'm going to go with this week and for transparency. This is what replaced the Justin Herbert. So that's like a little side, you know, one for me with the Justin Herbert over passing yards. The betting pros and I didn't fall in love with it. But it does like this one better and this is one that I just fell in love with and we're going to Bucky Irving and we're going Bucky Irving over receptions. And he has been a reception demon early on in this year. This is given this is a positive projection EV on betting pros. Projection is rounding up to three. So that's why it's in support of this on the three star. He's hit this both of the games this year. He's had seven and four and then specifically going up against the Vikings who one of the things with the Vikings that they're going to do is we know that they are going to blitz and they're going to bring everybody to the house and that opens up opportunities. I think for some of those dump off passes for quick decisions for Baker and we saw that last week with the Bears where the running backs were targeted eight times for seven catches for 65 yards. Now they do have King Gainwell. But so far Bucky Irving has seen 71% of snaps. He's had routes run on almost 57% and I'm the team kind of almost 18% overall target share. So that can obviously change in a heartbeat. But if they're playing from behind it, all of this puts us in a really good situation, the Vikings kind of demon mode as well. I don't know if they're going to be able to run and it might be a lot of high powered offense and then just a lot of defense coming at Baker. So this is one that I just started to fall in love with the more and stare at it because he hits this. They've loved throwing him the ball the whole bunch and I think the defensive scheme for the Vikings. He's going to play into that. So there's some support on betting pros. He's been hitting this this year. We need three as well. So it's 2.5 and there's actually some solid juice there. I've seen some juiceed up numbers around 125, but the best I found was around 108. So Bucky Irving over receptions. That's what I'm going to lock into number two. He better hit it and then Herbert better not, you know, he doesn't hit it and then Herbert gets the overpassing and then I'm going to be. First bet ball. Yeah, I'm going to bet both, but you know, for the show purposes I can't. All right, let's go in to bet number three. We're going to get in the mud. These are some dirty bets here and I'm very, I'm very excited about the one that you put up here and then I'm just going to give you guys a little tease. My first under is about to jump in for my number three and it's actually one of my favorite bets of the week, but yours is dirty. It's stinky. It's low. It's low name and I love them. These are the ones that I love. So prop number three for you this week, Erickson. We're headed to Ford Field where the lines are going to be taken on the New York Jets. There's going to be a ton of points in this game. So of course, you got to get in some player prop action originally here. I was going to do at the night Mitchell and the overrun is receiving yards, but I'm going to be honest. Well, I got a little spooked when he popped up on the injury report with a finger injury because the sky already has snow. He's already playing like he's got nine fingers. Yeah, 100%. So that did just get me a little bit squeamish about betting on him. So I'm just pivoting. I'm going down a tier in the Jets pecking order of targets and I'm going to Kenyane Cedique. They're rookie tight end the 16th overall pick and this year's draft to go over 26 and a half receiving yards and honestly, I think I might have liked this play even versus a healthy 80 Mitchell because I look at Cedique and this opportunity has potentially with Mason Taylor, maybe out for the New York Jets. He hasn't practiced this week. He's dealing with a thumb injury. I don't know what happened. All these Jets players in their hands in this last game and clearly something happened to all of them. Well, Kenyane Cedique is healthy and he's ready to go. He hasn't had a major role so far this season. He's only average three targets per game over the last two. But they have used him in unique ways around the red zone. He scored a rushing touchdown back in week one and the matchup is divine for him against the lines. They've been basically buns against every position, but specifically tight ends, deadlasts and yards and targets allowed 93 and a half yards per game, 12 and a half targets per game to opposing tight ends. Now back in week one, if you guys recall, I bet the overrun to one Johnson. I bet that anytime touchdown to one Johnson, who was he facing that week? The Detroit lines. So that's the only way I've actually got any way touchdown calls. Correct. Spoiler. Yeah. I'm going back to Cedique for my anytime touchdown because he is facing the lines here. So I just think that this is a big opportunity spot for him. He should he should run a lot more routes in a more uptempo game pace. And if I'm Aaron Glenn and I'm going to Detroit, knowing that, okay, we're going to have to push pedal to the metal here. We're going to have to rip off explosive plays. Then you're going to have to use Kenyane Cedique a lot in the specific matchup, especially it Mason Taylor is out. So planets are aligning kind of for Kenyane Cedique in my paint to really have a standout game. And he is so explosive. He hit over 20 miles per hour on his end around red zone touchdown run. If this guy gets to open space, he could catch one pass for 50 yards. And we're going to hit this. So taking the over death workie tight end. All right. I love it. I am going to be playing an under this week. I'm going to tell you, I do think this is the type of guy where one play could completely ruin it. But he has been an under machine, give me DK Metcalf under 51.5 receiving yards. You know, fun fact. As a stealer against the Bengals, he has not gone over 51 yards. He has not hit that marker yet. So, you know, either two or trend here, it's been atrocious, it's been atrocious with the Steelers. Aaron Rogers looks bad. He does not want to slaying the ball. Though what you can acknowledge when I'm playing a yard marker here is that Metcalf does have a 44, essentially 45% air yard share. But some of those are just the balls slinging out into nowhere. He's looked really bad. He does get the first reads, but it's a whole lot of screen stuff. And then, you know, if you focus in on just how much better the Bengals have been, PFF gives this a really, really poor matchup, specifically, I think built around how Metcalf kind of struggles in general. I think that's where some of it is. But betting pros like this, projections are under 50 on this. This is a four-start bet, which has positive ROI on four-start bets on betting pros. Projection EVs are on 17%. The number even, if it's around 52, so if I can get that 52, I really like that. But the Steelers are lost. The passing game looks lost. and I think heavy coverage is going to be built around style. And also you have. of a little bit banged up on the running game, but stopping DK Metcalf, and then it's, you know what it's gonna be? It's gonna be Pat Fryermoot. Actually, they can fry him with this kind of smash this week wherever the ball's gonna go. They've been getting Bernard a little bit. There's a little bit of Roman Wilson. DK Metcalf doesn't have that great separation. And for me, what it's going to be, which is gonna ruin this for me, this is gonna be one of those spots where he catches one of those screen passes and then he goes for 40. Like that's what ruins this. It doesn't matter if he gets 10 targets, he catches 50% of them. The Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to sling the ball. It doesn't have confidence in it. And the Bangal's defense is a lot better. He doesn't hit this versus the Bangal's. This is an easy under for me. DK Metcalf, 51.5 under. You proud of me? You got an under. Yeah, guess what? I mean, I got another under coming. I got two under's in it. Let's go. Let's go, you ready for that? All right, we got two more each coming up. But I wanna tell you guys about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. When the team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40%. When they come back to double your money, they're so confident. You're never gonna go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $50 on your first trade when you deposit just 10 bucks. And now they've launched a new feature called Squads. It's a group chat where you can see what everyone else is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's code FPPOD to get $50 free after you trade just 10 bucks. Props number four, let's jump into it. I didn't realize this, we are. We're gonna have you in the rushing or running back receiving market here. I love it. You're gonna play to an under. This one is another, I love when you're in the mud. And this to me is kind of a sedic mud to play and I'm all about this. So hit us with number four. Chris Rodriguez running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars under 0.5 reception. So essentially, will he catch a pass? My answer is no. He has zero catches and targets the season through two weeks with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week when LaQuint Allen was back in the lineup, C-Rod ran just four routes. So right now, Bay Shaltoton is the lead back in the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield and then they're mixing in guys like Amir Abdullah, LaQuint Allen mostly playing on third downs, which leaves Kiss Rodriguez kind of in this like early down red zone role where he's basically never targeted. He has seven career targets in the NFL. Six career catches, he has played 37 games. Well, quick math. How many catches per game is that? Six catches in 37 games? - Yeah, it's not 618-24, that's about five. - 0.16 catches per game is what he's averaging here. So the fact that the Jaguars offense is not even featuring running backs that much in the passing game, they have thrown a running backs at a 12% clip this season that is fourth lowest in the NFL at three per game. So they have more running backs that catch passes than they're averaging running back targets per game this season. So look, this could burn me. They could throw some type of weird swinging pass to Chris Rodriguez out of the backfield, but I'm gonna bet against that and it's not gonna happen. So I'm gonna sweat this the entire time. I'm watching Parker Washington, Christian Gonzalez, so head to head and be like, - It's Chris Rodriguez out there running around, but it'll be fun because he's not gonna catch the passes. - The best this week. - The best is gonna be when they do throw one and it bounces off his hands and you're just like, "Let's go!" But then you're gonna have to sweat it the rest of the way 'cause they threw him one. This is a good sweaty one. - And they're gonna realize, "Oh yeah, that's why we don't throw on the bump." - Yeah, it has been a strange development. I just started understanding why they don't trust Spatial Tutan maybe in that space 'cause it seems like they did it a lot more last year, obviously H&M in what he did. But look when Alan doesn't get on the field the whole bunch. And to your point, this is not what they bring in Chris Rodriguez to do. So this is a really fun one, really low-end number. I like that. I'm on an opposite end here for a heavy reception running back. And I'm looking at Devon H&M. Devon H&M over receptions at 3.5. I think this is the highest rated I believe, or it actually might be my last one. I might be, I didn't realize. I might be progressing myself up to the highest rating. But this is a four-star bet from betting pros that it supports on for me. 3.5, it's a little juicy, but projections are over four, 17%, projection EV, market EV, 7%. So there's a lot of support on it. I don't really need to do all this stuff, but you know Devon H&M. It's like a heavy snap percentage. He's running like 74% on routes. He's targeted 20% for the team as a total. And you're going up against a tough chiefs team, which, by the way, is going to just throw at Will on them. They're going to be playing from behind. Malik Willis does not have massive trust in slaying that ball. And that's why we see Devon H&M in this space. He only did catch three last week. He catches in the first one. They got to get him the ball a little bit more. If they're going to stay competitive, I think they're going to be down a decent amount. And that's where you got to get H&M involved. So 3.5, I think is a little bit low. I'm not even that uncomfortable playing the five, to be honest with you. But the heavy route run, heavy target percentage, they've got to show something. Malik Willis has got to show something. This is a really, really great spot for H&M. And as far as like coverages go, starting over at PFF, linebacker coverage. If there's any linebackers on, they struggle. Defensive backs are going to play a much better spot if they decide to end up doing that. But I don't think they will if they're running those three wide receiver sets. So this is an advantage to H&M, regardless of even it being like a fair-ish graded matchup. Love H&M, love the receptions. 3.5 over, gotta play it. - Yeah, I really like this one too for you. I think H&M leads, I think I mentioned it on the rank show. He leads the NFL and routes run among all running backs. And last week he had the targets, but he was like brutally in a fit. I don't think he felt like 50% of his targets, which you're always going to see that be a higher number with running backs because it's usually closer to the line of scrimmage. So I think this is a really sharp play. - Thank you, sir. Let's go to our last one. You're almost, you're just like, I love this for you. Good for you. I need, I need some wins here. And that's where we're going to go with our last one. You have been, you've talked about a couple players a lot this week. Quench on Jutkins, we've said it's Quench on Jutkins week. Negatively, you've played against Hampton. But there's one player that has come up as your option to pick at. And this player is who you're jumping in and the prop market this week. You are very pro this running back. - Chase Brown, running back for the Cincinnati bag. He's going to go over 63 and a half rushing yards. I think that if the Bengals are going to try to slow down this Steelers pass rush playing on the road, hostile environment. I think they got established the run here. And I think they trust Chase Brown enough to feed him enough volume to rip off some big plays. He has gone over 63 and a half rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games played dating back to last season. And in his two matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025, he averaged over 100 rushing yards per game. He's averaged 68 rushing yards per game this season. So he's gone over this number once and failed to hit it in the other game. But you got to point out he's had tough matchups to start the season. He has faced the 10 by Buccaneers who have a really good run defense and he's faced the Houston Texans who actually went over this number against last week because the offense just had the ball for so often. That's going to be the same script because the Steelers offense is threeing out in a cloud of dust. That's his guy with the new. First, I got a throw ball to get my calf. He's not going to catch it. We already know that. We'll start the outline while we're betting the under on his prop. And that means more opportunities for ball control with Chase Brown. The Steelers have allowed an opposing running back to hit at least 76 rushing yards in two straight games. And after week three, it'll be three. Love it. My final one, this is actually a play that I talked about on, I'm going to talk about on the Sunday night football show on the betting show. But sometimes it kind of like the day in the Jones one when I really like a play. I'm going to jump all into it. And that's this one. And this is my second under of the show. And it's Matthew Stafford passing yards under 243.5. And they're actually also a few places. I mean, I guess that's the number I'm locking in. But I do see like even a 249.5. But it's right in that 240 range. That's kind of my key number. I actually had originally looked at this at like 240.5. And this has to do a lot of like where I think the script of this game is going to go. We talked about it on the ranked show on Fantasy Pros that it's almost like this inverse type of game for me where it's you would expect the Broncos would be a team that would want to keep it on the ground. And then the high flying Rams would want to throw the ball a whole bunch. Rams looked like they could be without Puka. The Broncos might be without 400 different running backs. Ericsson might be suiting up for them. So this might be a situation where the Rams want to establish the run, keep the clock down, not try to get into heavy pass game. And the Broncos are trying to play the high side. They're trying to throw the ball. So unlike the previous matchup, the Broncos are going to be tough from the pass games. So if there's no Puka, Sir Tan locks down Devante Adams in a much more strict way. So it benefits this team to run Kyron, to run Blake Korum. And I think what that does is that keeps the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands a little bit. And there is support on this on betting pros. This is a three star. I think it was at 1.5. So let's move down a little bit. But over 25 units, the three star bets. The three star bets have actually been very sneaky on betting pros. And projections are right around that general line. But from a grade perspective, you're talking like a top 10, a top 10 pass rush, top five in wide receiver coverage. They're without their big wide receiver. I think it's pretty simple. I think they're going to play to the ender. Oh, by the way, did I mention Broncos have not given up over 200 yards passing so far. And they have gone against Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. So. I think they're gonna play it on the ground. Matthew Stafford, underpassing yards, two unders in one show. What could go wrong? What could go wrong, Erickson? What could go wrong? Touchdown calls, let's talk about some touchdowns, but before, what could go right, touchdown calls? Let's go. - Come on. - We need it to go right. We need the touchdowns. We need a first touchdown. We've talked about this, we get a first touchdown. First touchdown is gonna juice the rest of our year that we can play it up here, 'cause we are tracking the ROI. But before we jump into what we are playing this week, if you guys are looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. So head over to bettingprose.com/touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. Every single week, we pick like a, you know, between like, you know, even money to like one, right before two to one, essentially. And then we'll try to do like a over two to one play. That's where we like to sit in for our touchdown bets on every single week. You are the only one that is called one, though you should probably have another. I have been a little bit abysmal. It's also played out here. I'm doing a, I'm so into this, but I'm doing one of those touchdown survivor pools and it's three strikes. And your boy has gotta, I gotta play the big dog this week, otherwise I'm gonna be eliminated after week three in the survivor there. Touchdowns have been rough. So we both got to get an apple, right? Oh, dude, I think I had Mike Evans. And then my, you remember Mike Evans ripe off at the goal line, doesn't get in and then he gets picked from the game. So that screwed me. So that was super fun. And I had him on here too, which didn't get me in. We had some close touchdown calls. We didn't get it. You and I both have kind of our lower end play. And we actually both have gone in to the more than three and a half to one on our bigger call. So Eric, so why don't you kick us off with your main dog and then how deeper you go in for your second one? Okay, go under the dog pound. Quinn shot Juddkins. He's gonna score touchdown. You're still getting it at even money. You're close to even money plus 105 for him to score a touchdown. Just like he's gonna have a monster game. So give me Quinn Juddkins to score a touchdown for the Cleveland Browns. And then my long shot, anytime touchdown, I did kind of a lute when I was talking about Keynes to Deacon. Maybe that's what we got to do here. So we got to pair one of the guys having a monster receiving game, rushing our game and then pairing it with a touchdown. It worked with John Johnson. I did it in week one. So I'm kind of rolling it back here, targeting the Detroit Lions as the defense to make my Keynes to Deacon anytime touchdown bet hit, talked about how he scored in week one on a end around play. So they like using him around the red zone. And the Detroit Lions have given up four touchdowns to tight ends. They've given up a touchdown to two bills tight ends and two states tight ends. People forget, when John Johnson was sucking for the first three quarters of that game because I was watching it, no offense was going off and having a very productive game. And he also scored a touchdown against that team. So nox scored, King Cade scored. Everybody scores against the Detroit Lions at tight end. And that one clutes to Deacon after week three. - Tidens tried and true. That's why I've always lived in that range. I guess what I'm doubling down. These are both tight end bets this week for me. So mine, I'm going to take Travis Kelsey versus the worst secondary in the NFL. Travis Kelsey relived the glory days. He looks faster on the field. My homes, we got that trust separate. Any of the worry about finding separation against the dolphins, they're buns. So this is a spot early on that, I think we're going to get just the old vintage chiefs. And what does that mean? That means Travis Kelsey touchdown and we're getting in at plus 130. Only thing that's going to go against me is if it goes to like, it's a stupid Rishi rice one and then an Xavier worthy one, they might be up by three touchdowns by the half and it's just not going to play. But I really love this one, Travis Kelsey plus 130. And then my longer play, I think I kind of alluded to, is that I think the Steelers offense looks really, really rough. Aaron Rodgers looks really rough. I don't think they're going to just get completely shut out, but it's just not going to be from the wide receivers. It's going to be from the tight ends. Big hole in what the bangles is coverage wise half. They are the worst. Linebacker coverage is dead last in the league. Safety coverage, dead last in the league. Pat Farramuth is the play here. I think Eric, what is it? Fitsy hasn't like top 10 in fantasy this week. He's almost four to one on this line. So I think if they can get into the red zone, if they can rush that ball up, not give it to DK Metcalf, Rodgers is going to be looking for Farramuth because that's the coverage play. So that is going to be my deep play touchdown call. So some tight ends. We're going to go heavy tight. If we both get our long shot call, we're back to positive ROI on our touchdowns, which we'll do exactly. - Yeah, surprise that both of these are like, you have plus 370 minds plus 400. And I feel like those are really good values for these type of bets. - All right, last one, this is a new edition. We do this year is our first touchdown calls. We haven't gotten there. By the way, am I wrong about this? Has Christian Watson had a first touchdown in every single Packers game so far this year? - He has at least had two of the three first touchdowns at minimum. - I feel like when I scored the first touchdown for the Packers tonight. - That's what I'm saying, 'cause he did it tonight. And I know he did it like in week one. I think he scored the first touchdown in all three games. - Yeah, it was me, I'm wrong about that. - I don't think you are. Well, I know it's not the running backs. - He's scoring these touchdowns with a Green Bay Packers. I know that very, very firmly. - I meant to go look before the game, so it might be right. - Yeah, sorry for throwing this out if it's like wrong and nobody cares about it. But I think he's at least scored two of the first, this is nothing to do with this. But I was just thinking about like, wow, how I don't recall seeing like a guy dominate first touchdowns this early on like he has. And that actually kind of takes me to, I'm a little disappointed in you. Because my expectation out of you is I wanna see 50 to ones. When I see your first touchdowns. And I think you might be able to hit this one, but I just, I felt left alone in, you had an 80 to one last week and now you're just going to like some puny little seven to one or something like that. So let's get your first touchdown call. You are, you're in it to win it. This is probably gonna be the lowest first touchdown call odds a bit, you're gonna play this year, but hit us with it. - He's trying to get in the green, okay? - I don't blame him. - Trying to get on base, man. - OBS, what is it, what is it, on base percentage? - Yeah, on base. - OBS, yeah, that's a, that records your streaming and it can get you on base. - OBS. - OBS. - Tony Pollard is my first touchdown, but I think that these odds are just too long. I mean, seven to one for a starting run-e-back who saw four goal line carries last week. Did not end up finding the end zone came or it ended up scoring twice on the ground. I don't think that will happen two weeks in a row. I, can we talk about buns, cheeks, the Giants run defense and it is absolutely atrocious. So I think the Titans are live here to just win this game outright. I agreed with Seth on that take because James Winston is the most wide range of outcomes type of quarterback where he can win you games, he can lose you games in dramatic fashion. I do think that the Titans have an edge here and I think given the fact that Pollard got more run in the second half of last week's game, ton of goal on opportunities. I think he finds the end zone early on here and the Titans jump out to an early lead as road underdogs against the Giants who if you look at what they have done on the ground, most rushing arts allowed over expectation per carry the season, highest rate of rushes over-expectated to running backs in league. So that sets up very favorably for Tony Pollard. By the way, we totally forgot about the Seth. I think Seth's mad at me. I think he's done with me with my nine or stuff and picking on him last week. I don't blame him. I don't blame him. I was shocked by the, we all have bad calls though. It's okay. And he didn't want, I didn't think to even ask and he's probably super happy about it. I love you Seth, worst call ever, but I love you. You're super smart. You're going to make about a million calls just they can be with the dolphins. Speaking of the reason that maybe think of it too, it's 49ers. My first touchdown run is going to be with the 49ers here. And I'm, you're going to love this because I'm going to go theme here. 40, this is birthday? No, it's not, it's not his birthday. Well, there's a celebration around him right now. And the problem is that celebration cost him $14,000. Kyle use check is 40 to one for the first touchdown after being fined by the NFL for his chugging celebration. Mind you, his name is juice. He says he doesn't drink beer. They sent him a letter that he was displaying an act of alcohol and he had to a drinking alcohol, which by the way, sponsored by Bud Light, that you know, that was a whole egregious thing. The NFL's kind of up in arms right now about suspensions or fines with these type of celebrations. The team is rally around Kyle use check. They put a little thing in his thing, not beer. They put a can when he did an interview. George Kittle is AI ratting him out in the tub. Everyone's having fun with it. Well, guess what's going to be the most fun? When the 49ers get into the red zone, they play action to Christian McCaffrey and they throw that outline past a Kyle use check on the first play. He scores the first touchdown. And then does he do the juice? They're all planning it. It's 40 to one. There's really no good data to it. It's just me creating narrative. But sometimes on first touchdowns, narrative is what I got. 40 to one Kyle use check. Book it. I don't think I'm allowed to say. - I love this one. - I love this one. - Yeah, that's my. - Love this one. DeFi Squad riding Kyle. - Yeah, let's go baby. - Yeah, that's good. - All right, what do you guys write? Drop it in the comments below. First touchdowns, love to see. Those are probably the most fun. If you got some favorite props, drop them below. And thank you guys for hanging out with us. Hopefully you guys are going to catch some good bets. We'll be back again next week. We'll tell you how the card went. Hopefully it's good. We're in a good mood and we're not vibes are down or anything like that. But maybe we'll hit some touchdowns as well. That'll be the big play. And can I continue the, is it the unders? That's the fun one in Gibbs. So yeah, all these little fun games that we're going to play with. But hopefully you guys dug the bets. Those are the props. Those are the touchdowns. Download the betting pros app. you. you guys can log yours in. You can check out the data that supports it and you can see some really great recommendations on picks when using the app. So go and download that today, get the premium sides. You have access to everything and have a ton of fun with it. Good luck in week three, four-anger Ericsson. I'm Chris Welsh. We'll talk to you next time right here on "Betting Pros." Thanks for listening to the "Betting Pros" podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok @BettingPros and Instagram @BettingProsNFL. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/BettingPros. [MUSIC PLAYING]