NFL Week 1 Predictions: Game Picks, X-Factors & Bold Fantasy Football Calls (Ep. 2181)

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. The World Cup is over, but if you caught the soccer bug and aren't sure what to do now, check out our podcast, Big Kick Energy. I'm Cameron Dicker, the kicker from the Los Angeles Chargers, and I'm here with Timmy Tillman, current LAFC star player. So, we know a little something about kicking balls. Each week, we'll tackle things like, who's winning the Premier League this year? What do you think is harder, scoring a penalty kick or scoring a field goal? Join us each week for a quick chat with your soccer-loving bros about the best sport in the world. Soccer. Just don't tell my coaches I said that. Listen to Big Kick Energy on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Welcome to the tailgate. I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson. Boys, we are previewing, giving our predictions for week one of NFL action. It just feels good. D-Bro, I feel kind of like your shirt right now. You know, like when Iron Man. Erickson lands in Iron Man 2, and he's like, oh, it's good to be back. That's exactly how I feel right now. Come on. Did you just make an Iron Man reference? You don't know what this shirt is, then. What is that shirt, then? Is that not the arc reactor for Iron Man? No! What the heck is that? It's the Autobot Matrix of Leadership from Transformers. Oh, dog. I'm not, okay, I'm not that locked in to Transformers. My bad. Oh, man. My bad. We just derailed the show right here from the beginning. Erickson, you had no idea what it was, either. Don't even know. No, Erickson had no clue. I knew Erickson didn't have a clue. No, I had no idea. Didn't know it was Iron Man. Didn't know it was Transformers. No idea. Not a clue. We got off to an awesome start. I feel like we just, like, we stumbled out the blocks, boys. That's fine, though. That's fine. That's what we're here to do. We're here to just keep talking about having fun. It's been a long buildup. Again, this is a weird week. Monday was Labor Day. There was football on Wednesday, and it wasn't because of some holiday or COVID implication that it was actually supposed to be scheduled for a Wednesday night football game, which we recorded. When you're listening to this, it's after that game, so hopefully my Patriots pulled it through, got the dub, but we shall see. The first game of the NFL season is in a foreign country on a Wednesday. Everything feels wrong. I don't even have words. I mean, eventually we're going to get to the point of the NFL schedule where there's a game every single day of the week. An international game every single week, too. It's going to be crazy. And then we're going to be playing on the moon. There'll be a team in Antarctica. It's going to be fantastic. I think Metcalf's going to sign a mega deal with that team that plays in Antarctica. Did you guys see that? Is there a candy factory they're building there, too? No, Metcalf believes that there is like a civilization, like this city in Antarctica. He's been hanging out with Aaron Rodgers a lot. Is that a real thing? Is he a flat earther, too? I don't know. I don't know. What is Rodgers' stance on that? Because I think Metcalf has just been. Where do the flat earthers even think Antarctica is? Where is it on the map? This is. I'm guessing that it's not real. This is. Okay, we have gone way too far off the map. Oh my lord, this is real. Yes. Believes Antarctica, another world, hiding a secret civilization beneath. It's tall, dude. This is the trending news and notes. I've been real time learning this. Antarctica. Let us know in the comments. Do you think Antarctica is hiding a secret civilization below ground? What is this, dude? How does that affect DK Metcalf's target share? Who snuck acid into his candy, bro? Fine, now. Stay tuned. That's horrible. That's actually where all the Skittles come from. Oh my gosh, dude. All right. Let's take a look at some of the, you know, somewhat more meaningful NFL news here. Boys, right now, the headline that keeps coming out of Kansas City is that Patrick Holmes is most likely to start week one. Well, let's just take that as yes, he is. Is there any concern here for you guys with the injuries that he's been, you know, recovering from? And are we expecting a slow start? In Kansas City is, does this headline mean anything to you, D bro? No, he's going to play. And I think that we could see like, you know, if people want to be attacking like the rushing unders for his props, I think that's definitely a good look on this for the first few weeks of the season. I don't think he's going to be running a ton. But outside of that, what, what is the Chiefs offense been over the last few years? Dink and dunk. Patrick Mahomes like runs around in a circle for like five minutes and then throws a, you know, a three yard drag route to Rishi Rice. I mean, outside of the running, I think the offense is probably just going to stay very similar. We're probably going to get the same thing. They're not going to have their starting left tackle in this game. Yeah, exactly. So it's going to be a lot of dink and dunk. Like it has been the last like three years. Speaking of dink and dunk, Erickson to a tug of ILOA, the name, the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. It's kind of like getting a perfect attendance for something that you're required to go to. Like he's just the only quarterback that's there right now, really. And Michael Penix has been inactive throughout the entire preseason. He's still currently inactive to a tug of ILOA being starting quarterback for the Falcons. How are you feeling? I was listening that two of my not be on this roster if Michael Penix wasn't injured. So that's where we're at with how the Falcons feel confidence wise about to how we play during the preseason. The fact that his blindside blocker is a guy who's already off the field. He's already off sides and has already false started twice. And that's going to be problematic against the Pittsburgh Steelers, TJ Watt and that pass rush hostile environment. This is a bad look for the Atlanta Falcons. I'm all over the Steelers winning this game at home against the Atlanta Falcons, despite all the talent they have on the opposite side of the football. B. John Robinson is going to be peppered, peppered with targets. Alt those reception lines, six and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half. I want the overs on all of the B. John, because it's going to be to your point, Alfredo. Check down. Sisson. Check down says that is how they pronounce it. Yes, we'll go to Denver. All right, because I know we already talked about Kansas City versus Denver game this week. J.K. Dobbins still reportedly the RV one in Denver. Debro. Is that sort of a for now? Or is this just kind of a little bit of pomp and circumstance putting him at the head of the depth chart? But really, it's just a big split. I mean, I think it's probably going to be a big split, but like I think Jonah Coleman, it's going to take himself. I think it's going to take some time to work into this split. I feel I still think J.K. Dobbins is going to be the preferred early down guy until he's hurt. I know he's come out and said a lot of things, you know, but staying healthy and stuff. I'd love to see it. I would love to see it. But at this point, I mean, we have questions if it if it can actually happen. But I think Dobbins will stay the early down guy. I think Archie Harvey is going to be the preferred passing down back it when Coleman gets in the field. And I do think that happens. He's going to have to eat into the early down stuff for Dobbins. I don't think he's going to be. The passing down option. Last little bit of news here. Mason Taylor, a name that we barely ever talk about on the fantasy side, has been labeled the Jets tight end one over top 15 pick Kenyon Sadiq from the NFL draft this year in round one. Now, like this isn't all that surprising because Mason Taylor is just a guy who's ready to play. He blocks well. And Kenyon Sadiq missed a lot of time in camp with injury. So, Erickson, do you see this as something again, death chart wise, where there's kind of like the rookie will earn a lot of money? Earn his spot and eventually we'll just see him there more or is this one of these things where we're also just looking at the depth chart and saying, like, it doesn't really matter who's number one. They're both going to play plenty. I think they'll both probably play plenty, but I think it's going to be more of a slow burn for Sadiq. I compare it to last year with Colson Loveland and Cole Comet, where it took a long time for Loveland to really get the reps with the starters playing a full time role in the offense. It wasn't until about midway through the season that Comet missed a game and then Colson Loveland had a monster performance against Cincinnati Bengals and then he was off to the races. And Loveland also was dealing with an injury last year as well, entering the season. So his preparation to the year was kind of truncated, similar to Sadiq. So I would follow or we could see a similar path, I think, for the Jets tight end. I'm going to go a little more pessimistic here. I kind of worry Sadiq is going to go the route of Terrence Ferguson and the Jets tight end room could just become a rotating cat. Like, I think Jerry. Jeremy Rucker probably also gets in the mix here. So you think he's getting Elijah Arroyo to here? Could be. Yeah, I definitely think. Yeah, but he's a first round pick, though. Like those guys get more opportunities to make early. And he missed all of rookie camp and he missed all of training camp. OK, under over 11 catches for Kenyon Sadiq this year because that was Terrence Ferguson's. That's how many catches Terrence Ferguson had. I was like, that's a hell of a line to draw. Terrence Ferguson had 11 catches. I think it's well over. The over. So. But that's not saying anything. Yeah. Erickson just. Proved his point. Deep row. You look foolish now. Egg on your face. All right. We're going to hop into all the games that matter most this week for week one. But before we do that, guys, football's back and it's time to level up your approach to the NFL and college football this season because Polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states. And unlike traditional sports books on Polymarket, you can trade on all things football from the Saturday and Sunday slates to who wins the Heisman to who performs. The halftime show. Polymarket gives you the freedom to cash out instantly. If the momentum swings, you sell it off in real time. You're in control. No one can lock you out and you could also buy in any time. So when the market dips, like if a team starts to slow down and drops to say 40%, that's not a loss. That's when you buy in at Polymarket. You can buy cheap and ride the momentum back up. Polymarket is so confident you'll never go back to the old way. They are issuing issuing you a challenge. They're going to give you a $50 bonus when you deposit just 10 bucks. Sign up. up right now with the promo code fppod. That's polymarket.com. dot us and use the promo code F P pod to get a $50 bonus when you deposit just $10. All right, guys, the games that matter most this week and week one, it's hard to say because it's like, you know, we're not at the point where everything's a must win game, but there's, I think some of these games that are going to really set the tone for the season. So let's start off with the first one here that I think is so interesting. Cincinnati Bengals versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What we want to do here is look at a player or a facet of the game. That's going to be the biggest X factor. And then just give a general prediction of how we think this game is going to go. So Erickson, why don't you lead us off here with the Tampa Bay Cincinnati game? I'm going to go with my X factor being Chris Godwin, who might be the healthiest wide receiver on the Buccaneers currently. Egbuka has been dealing with some turf toe injury. And if you ask Todd Bowles, he might as well not have a foot because Todd Bowles has no idea what's going on with any of his players. This week, next year, who knows? In terms of how healthy they are, he's just hoping that they show up on game day and he's like, all right, sweet. We can play this guy this week. So I think Godwin has mostly been healthy this off season. He's going back to a full-time role in the slot, which is where he's been his most productive throughout his NFL career. And people forget, but the last game that we saw Chris Godwin play, he balled out. He looked really healthy, looked good. So I think that given DJ Turner, the lockdown quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengals, probably not going to cover Godwin much if he's operating from the slot. So I think that Baker Mayfield is going to feature Godwin a ton in this matchup, which should be pretty high scoring. I like, I don't want to bet the over, but I think that this will probably be near 50 points total. It just, the Bengals are always a wild card when it comes to how fast do they start on offense. They have been playing their guys more in the preseason, but they've traditionally been the week one turd every single year with Joe Burrow, where they come out, don't do anything on offense. and they complained about, well, we should have played our guys more in the preseason. So we'll see what things shake out. Usually it's because in week one, they play the Browns and the Browns just always have the Bengals number in week one at Cleveland. A couple of years ago, the Bengals lost to my New England Patriots in a big upset. So they can't be trusted in week one most years. So I think there's going to be points though. And I think Chris Godwin is going to have a very productive fantasy outing. Debro, who's your X factor in this game and who do you think wins it? I love the Godwin call. If Erickson didn't go that direction, I was going to go that direction. But I'll go with Kenneth Gainwell. For all the improvements that Cincinnati Bengals made this offseason with their D-line, with the back end, their safeties, their linebackers are still horrible. They still suck. They're still improving. And I think that Kenneth Gainwell, and I'm going to allude to more Emeka Ibuka talk later in the show, but I think Emeka is heading for a tough day. I think Godwin is going to eat. But also you got to have somebody else step up in the passing game. And I think that's going to be Kenneth Gainwell. Because they didn't improve their linebackers. And this is a Cincinnati defense that quietly gave up the six most yards per target, second most yak per reception, and third most yards per route run to running backs last year. So I think Kenneth Gainwell is a player that's going to factor in early and often. Well, boys, who did you say is going to win here? Bucks or? I didn't give a, do I have to give a winner? I can give a winner. Let's wait, let's wait, let's wait one second. I'll do my X factor and then we'll all pick our winners. We'll go across the board. And this is the end, everyone. Yeah, yeah, we'll tack them on at the end. My X factor for this one's going to be Chase Brown. This is going up against a tough Bucks run defense. Fifth fewest rushing yards last season, third fewest in 2024. And Erickson, like you mentioned, man, the Bengals just get off to a slow start every single year. And the Bucks secondary has been improving over the years. But obviously, I mean, the offense is still going to run through Joe Burrow and that passing attack. But if we see the same kind of slow start that Chase Brown had last year, I think it's going to be a tough run. I think it's going to be a tough run. For the Bengals, it stunts the offense just enough where it's like, OK, defense is no. There's really nothing else you can do except for, you know, keep playing like you're a 14-year-old kid playing Madden and just throw the ball every single play. So that's going to be my X factor on the Bengals side. Let's do predictions here. Who ends up winning this? Cincy or Tampa Bay? Erickson, we'll start with you. Bucks cover, but the Cincinnati Bengals win it. I would have actually gone Bucks with the full upset had Baker Mayfield not signed a brand new contract because he's not as pissed off if he has the contract. He got the back. You think he's so petty? He's still pissed. Come on. He's still pissed. He's the same. Now he's petty and rich. But I want maximum petty He's Richard Pettyfield. I want him without a contract. I want him disrespected by every NFL team. Why didn't anybody sign me? But he signed the deal, so don't feel as good about him. So I'll say they cover, though, but the Bengals won't. So hold up. You don't think that he's not hearing some of the chatter about people saying that he's overpaid right now? Oh, wait, is that what he's spinning? That now he's overpaid? I mean, come on, dude. Professional athletes have to look at it some way. There has to be some kind of bulletin board. It's not happening. The new contract gets a new contract. Now people are mad that I got too much money. Baker Mayfield is that meme of the guy pointing in the mirror? He did this his entire career. That's valid. Bucks cover. Bucks cover. Plus three and a half. Lock. Baker Mayfield is that meme of the dude pointing in the mirror is that you get in there and you make this about you. Just every single time. D-Bro, who wins this one? What's your prediction? I'll go Bengals. I think I think it's gonna be a high scoring affair, but I do think the improvements that the Bengals have made on defense make Baker's life tough enough and Mecca Buka having a down game to where I think it's the difference. I'm going the exact opposite of you guys on everything here. I'm going Bucks win and the game itself hits the under. Oh, this. I know this is projected to be the big shootout since he has lost. There's a few. There's a few. Yeah, yeah, I know. But obviously like we've got like New Orleans and Detroit, but like since he's lost three of their last four openers here, their only win was by one point to Cleveland last year and they've hit the under in all four of their last week one opening games as a total. I know this is a better matchup and it looks good on paper. I just don't know that since he gets the monkey off their back in this one, man, like the Bengals just continue to struggle week one. There's no rhyme or reason to it. I'm just going with the continuous trend of the Bengals. The Bengals don't know how to start off their season. That's fair. All right, let's go to the other one. The other shootout or potential shootout here. New Orleans Saints versus the Detroit Lions. Debra, let's start with you this time. Who's your X factor in this game? Tyler Shuck, dude. He's got to come ball out. He's got to be willing to sit here and grip and rip. He's got to be willing to put up points on the board and play with some of the out of structure playmaking that we saw to close last season. If he's going, if the Saints have any realistic chance of winning this game, and I'll just say that, I'll just go ahead and spoil this. I think the Lions do in this game. Then Shuck is going to have to play one hell of a game because the Lions are going to come out. They're going to put up points, man. I fully believe that. So I think Tyler Shuck walking away with having like he's going to have to play extremely well. If Jordan Tyson was healthy and playing this game, I might actually take the Saints to upset, but I'm not going to go there. Erickson. All the points that you could possibly imagine in Detroit or field the chorus field of the NFL. I love taking unders, but never in Detroit. You'll never catch me betting a player prop under or a game total under the fact that it's under 15 and a half points is all the reason I need to slam you over last 23 home games to the Lions. 16 have gone over the total. 16 last 34 home games for the Lions have averaged over 55 points. Total 71% of those games have gone for at least 51 points. The trends are strong. This field, especially when you look at the Lions secondary and how it's so eviscerated from injuries from last year where Kirby Joseph, he's not going to play Brian Branch. He's not going to play Rocky Sin, DJ Reed, older cornerbacks are going to be starting for the Detroit Lions. And I think that means Chris Alave is going to just absolutely feast. And my X factor for this matchup is Juwan Johnson. The most underrated fantasy tight end in all the land could have gotten with your last pick. And I was always really mad when I didn't get him. Someone else would always pick him in round 14 ahead of me because I was waiting for round 15. I'd be like, man, that's a really good pick. Good on you. Picking Juwan Johnson. So he was third in receiving yards among all tight ends last season. And he was going like outside the top 20 tight ends for a lot of draft season. So he's going to be the number two guy here. Given the injuries to all the safeties, I think that he's going to also see a ton of volume and be a big reason why this game goes over the total. Bro, I was also, I was about to challenge you and say, like, no, the total is 50, but apparently it was at 50 and 50.5 and it's been bet down to 49.5. I'm like, what are people doing? People are slaying over. Yeah, their money. Everybody. Yeah. Amazing. Erickson, you took my guy. I was going Juwan Johnson here as well. Lions secondary decimated with injuries, man. No Jordan Tyson. It's just someone's got to step up. I know we had the possibility of Devon Vele, Bryce Lance, someone else stepping up. Juwan Johnson seems like the easiest number two. Two targeting his team to step up, especially in this game where, I mean, I think we're all taking the over here. I'm still going Detroit in this one, but I think it's going to be a fun one. Is everyone Detroit across the board? Yep. Yeah, Detroit. I will shout out not like a true X factor, but I do think Bryce Lance could catch a long touchdown in this one. So bet the over in his longest receiving or longest reception this week. He said it. He said it with his chest. His chest that has the matrix of leadership. Yes. What is it? What is it? I think I've heard of it once. You said it like Ron Berman. Is this from the trailer? transformers movie with shia labeouf is that the one that you're referring to no no this this is from the transformers movie in the 80s the cartoon is it optus prime that tells shia labeouf's character be like put it in my chat that's the all spark all spark yeah totally different things erickson don't act like you were too cool to watch transformers it came out when you were like eight i was watching yeah because you weren't alive turtles i have transformers tattoos on me so there's no way i can run from this it just doesn't sound cool the matrix of leadership no it doesn't sound that sounds like the conch like that how else would optimus prime say it i have the conch rip by the way rip peter cullen by the way that's right all right let's go to our next game here baltimore versus indie ravens versus colts here guys uh erickson start with you this time who is your x factor for this game my x factor is the trenches looking at the offensive defensive line matchup for the ravens offensive line against the colts defensive line now i know pat fitzmaurice threw some cold water on the dynamic duo of grover stewart and deforest buckner but i know they are a little bit older so is derrick henry he's also not some spring chicken he's a little bit older too but those guys are healthy and they significantly improve the colts run defense when they are out on the field and they both should be good to go here so i think that them against a interior offensive line for the baltimore ravens that has three new starters no more tyler linderbaum big ione very excited about him but it's still his first game in the nfl as a rookie and it's going to be a tough matchup i think for this interior blocking unit for the baltimore ravens versus this colts defensive front especially on the road bad offensive lines don't travel i think it remains to be seen when you look at the ravens losing tyra linderbaum what and how well will they protect lamar jackson how much push they'll get up front from a run blocking perspective for derrick henry to get going because derrick henry needs his carries like he's a guy that i wish i could go back in time and just bet the under on all of his first half rushing and i bet the over in the second half because he always seems to explode in the second half after he has 10 carries for 20 yards and everyone's complaining like why do they keep giving the ball derrick henry the run's not working and then he just rips off an 80 yard touchdown like that's exactly how the derrick henry recipe works so i'll be interested to see if declan doyle will stick with that or if he'll abandon the run if it's not working as a new offensive play caller and think i got lamar jackson mvp quarterback let's let it sling was a flowers so that's what i'm kind of looking for here from an x factor i like the ravens to win but i don't really feel good about them covering lane three and a half points on the road for a rookie head coach that is a little suspect to me i actually like the under of all the plays here it's another really high total i think around 48 and a half 49 and a half betting against daniel jones and his first game back from the achilles the only thing that scares me the most about the under overall is just the fact that i don't think they're going to be able to win and this is going to be my player predictions is jonathan taylor is going to have a day oh oh my all right well you took my x factor because i was going to do the same thing colts d line versus ravens o line here so i'll also love it i'll switch around because i'm also feeling the same way with the prediction i'll switch around declan doyle being the x factor here first game as the play caller you're going to have to give us something special something unique something that the opposing defense will not be ready for because everyone knows derrick henry's getting his touches right like what else can you do how well can you move zay flowers around this offense to keep sas gardner off him like how well can you implement this new offense where everyone goes damn the ravens might be legit super bowl contenders this year so declan doyle is gonna be the x factor for me d bro who's your x factor i'm going mark andrews on this one and i'm not high on mark andrews from a season-long perspective but versus the colts the colts were terrible horrible against tight ends defending and this isn't really just a colts thing this is a loo and a rumo thing if you look back through years and years and years of nfl seasons the bengals were always god awful at covering tight ends the colts last year quietly gave up the fourth most yards per target and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity to the position i think mark andrews has a good day here i can't i will not speak on or hype him up for a season-long bet or anything like that but i do think he scores a touchdown and as far as x factors go you talked about zay flowers you talk about concerns with derrick henry mark andrews is going to get some targets in this game they did add cam bynum that's the only thing that i would push back on them being so horrible against i mean he's going to be the green dot play caller for their defense this year so i think that he's a pretty big upgrade their linebackers are not good so i think andrews can probably beat like cj allen and akim davis gathers on some routes but i'm pretty high on the cam bynum signing especially how important he was to the vikings defense the last couple years hey our ride's almost here are you ready just grabbing my shoes that's what you said 10 minutes ago i just dropped a video call uploading this giant file on my tablet looking at my watch cool bananas with the group chat and of course still lining up tonight's playlist on my phone all at once yep story of my life that's why i switched to t-mobile they have the fastest 5g network okay multitasker i see you honestly i never imagined i could do all this at once it's awesome say no more i'm totally switching my post is taking way too long to upload that's a sign you've got to get t-mobile so many reasons to join t-mobile find yours at t-mobile.com fastest based on analysis by uclo speed test intelligence data of national speed score results incorporating 5g download and upload speeds for the first half of 2026 so chat chat gpt can do more than answer questions it can help you get real work done chat gpt work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps you bring the goal along with the information it needs like briefs notes files feedback calendars data sets or project plans then chat gpt can help turn all of that into something useful an analysis a tracker a deck outline a prototype or a workflow you can keep shaping it can also use a proofreader to be able to see what's going on in the context of the project if you want to use it in the context of a project you can use it in the context of a project you can use it in the context of a project you can use it in the context of a project to help move the work forward and you stay in control you give direction review drafts approve actions redirect the work and choose the final output so you spend less time sorting through busy work and more time making progress on the work that matters put chat gpt to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat gpt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans 30 years ago an island off manhattan almost brought down new york city who will you trust your friends and neighbors or you trust the people five miles overseas this is a story about neighbors turning on each other and what happens when a forgotten place decides it's had enough we reached for a feeling that exists in this city but we're not stopping are we i'm ben that of half rate and for my new series on revisionist history i took a deep dive into staten island's attempt to secede from new york city in the 1990s and what it all has to do with the politics of resentment that dominate america today listen to revisionist history the staten island problem on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts he could help just for some context but again going back to the anirumo stuff and the just defensive design stuff 2024 with anirumo bangles gave up the third most receiving arts to tight ends the previous year they gave the second most the year prior to that and i can keep going down this well as far as we want to they were top 12 and receiving arts to tight ends 2021 they were they gave up the fifth most so it's i mean that that's what a four or five year sample right there like luke anirumo's defenses you got to give production up somewhere is consistently allowing tight ends to have big days i think at least for like when you look at the ravens team too is who are you willing to let beat you the guy who's probably not going to gash your team for a ton of yards after the catch like you're going to try to shut down derrick henry and zay flowers as best you can and be like okay we'll give up a couple singles and doubles to mark andrews but we're not giving up the home runs to to derrick henry and zay flowers is the mark andrews like catch us for like 15 yards and a touchdown is that the same i mean look the mark andrews ppr scam could be here five for 25 and a touchdown that's probably still a tight end one in fantasy but i'm with you guys on the under i think this game like i was actually kind of surprised this feels like a lot of last year's hope and ravens hope for this total maybe at 48 i'm not feeling that i'll take the under and i do think the ravens win this game yeah i think ravens want a close one here with the under let's go a little quicker to these games we're running behind we talked a lot of transformers today bills versus texans d bro kick us off x factor for this game donkey k baby uh where are you going to attack the houston texans defense uh it's a good question i'm really good linebackers really good corners d line is arguably the best in the nfl i think don king kade's gonna have to play big this game he really is and if i know the houston texans at every blanket ship in the off season. So that probably helps here and stuff. But again, And we're discussing a Texans defense that really is returning most, if not everybody outside of Blankenship, like back to this defense. And in weeks 12 through 18 last year, they give the seventh most receiving fancy points per game and the 11th most points per opportunity to tight ends. So I think Kincaid, and again, I really want to see what does his route share look like? Is he a 60%, 70% route share out the gate when maybe he's as healthy as possibly the entire season? So I think Kincaid's going to have to play up for this one. That's a guy I originally had as my X factor for this one. I decided to go the opposite direction, though. I went David Montgomery here. The Bills have struggled against the run for a minute here. Dave Montgomery is the new, I mean, I don't want to say new shiny piece for the Houston Texans, but they repaired the old car and they're going to give it one last ride here. It's like Fast and Furious 11. They're just going to do it one more time. And I think this could actually be a good game for David Montgomery, especially, I mean, Texans defense, if God, Derek Stingley going up against DJ more, like you said, like the Bills are going to need Don Kincaid to do something. They're going to need James Cook to do something. There's a chance that this Texans defense looks awesome and they can run out the clock pretty well and kind of play a little keep away here against the Bills. Also, I'm just going to, I'm going to go with the Texans. Is this like Fast and Furious 11? Is this game set on the moon? Kind of what we were talking about earlier? I mean, like what? You didn't hear they want to get back to basics. They need it to be about racing again. Oh, okay, okay. So on the tough streets of Houston, got it. Yes. Actually, I don't know. I don't know how tough the streets of Houston are. It seems lovely, though. Seems like a great city. No idea. But Josh Allen owed four against the Texans on the road in his career. Yeah, Erickson. How does it usually go for him? It's not good. Something I didn't even say. Erickson, Erickson, you look like the, I'm about to make a trade meme the way you put the hands like this. Are you, you're doing like Illuminati symbols for me here. Well, he's debating on whether he wants to say what he wants to say or he doesn't want to say it. I was going to go with both of those players he listed as X-Factors. So I'm kind of. Now he's just like, it's Josh Allen and CJ Stroud. I was just going to list off the obvious, where it's the Houston Texans defense against Josh Allen. Josh Allen turns into Superman. Like we all know he's capable of doing and just taking over games, then the Bills will win. But if it's more of the same recipe where the Houston Texans defense has dominated Josh Allen, I'm not going to say it because I don't know if that's allowed on these radio waves, rhymes with loaned and owned, the Houston Texans. I think they're just going to win this game. I don't see why the addition of DJ Moore is going to dramatically change the odds that the Buffalo Bills go on the road in a hostile environment and beat the Houston Texans when this Texans defense has had Josh Allen's number in multiple stops. They lost last year against Davis Mills, their backup quarterback. They were six point dogs at home and the Texans won outright. I love the way Bieber is just giggling. So I think that the Texans are going to win this game. And I think that kind of being disrespected again, going back to all that these lines care about is the quarterback. If Josh Allen wasn't the quarterback, it would be the Texans as favorites. But because it's Josh Allen, because as we get into some of the other matchups, because it's my homes, like those guys just get more points. And I think that's being disrespectful to how elite, honestly, the best way to describe the Houston Texans defense, in my opinion, is suffocating. It just makes offenses not be able to move. So give me the Texans. Yeah, I mean, when you lose to Captain Turtleneck, it's not a good thing. Who's Captain Turtleneck? Davis Mills. Davis Mills. I can't even. I have not heard that one before. Have you not? No. I mean, I know he's got a long neck, but like I wasn't walking around calling him Captain Turtleneck. You've not seen. Dude, you have never seen like the graphics and stuff of Davis Mills and then his neck. I mean, it's my. No, I've seen it. I've seen it. I've just never called him Captain Turtleneck. Like you had me. You had me here guessing first. I guess. I guess a real X factor would actually be CJ Stroud, not just playing like total garbage. Now that he has it, he had a minute to look up some stuff. I would add CJ Stroud. I think that the I mean, the Bills defense is just much worse than the. Just say Kaimi Fairbairn, you coward. Honestly, it's not a bad call. It's probably going to be kicker one. I got to adjust my kicker rankings. This is all to say the Texans do win. Yes. Yes. All right. Last game on here. Green. Packers versus the Minnesota Vikings. This one, I actually think it may not be the sexiest one of the week, but I think it's the most interesting because these are two teams that kind of need to figure out what their identity is. Green Bay with running the football now without Josh Jacobs and the Vikings throwing the football with Kyler Murray technically under center, but in shotgun. So let's talk about our X factors here. Erickson, kick us off for this one. It's got to be Marshawn Lloyd. We're going to finally get to see this guy play in a real NFL. Game. And he may more than double his career NFL snaps, which is 10, two seasons into his NFL career. So we get 20 snaps at a Marshawn Lloyd. That is a big W for the Marshawn Lloyd stands. And dude, if he gets 20 snaps, the streets are going to riot. Why would he not get? Okay. I'm saying at least 20 snaps. I just say we write it down. Okay. Because if he just gets just 20 snaps, like this is a, I mean, the Packers are known for being a very efficient offense. So maybe they only have 25, but it's going to have all the opportunity to showcase his expulsiveness. Drawing Minnesota Vikings is never a easy matchup, but I think that their personnel overall is weaker than it's been in years past. But Brian Flores always knows how to throw a curve ball and make things tough on opposing offenses. And obviously these teams are familiar with each other playing in the NFC North twice a year. I do like the Vikings to win though. I think that they're playing. They're playing at home. And when you look at the Packers, they did not win a single game last year after Micah Parsons went down. And I think that matters so significantly because when you invest so much into one player and he misses time, especially a player with an impact like a Micah Parsons, again, it was twofold last year. How good was Green Bay with Micah Parsons? How bad was Dallas without Micah Parsons? Like that matters so significantly. So even though they've made some additions and moves this off season, knowing that they would be without Parsons, I got to see it first before I go. I'm going to be betting on the Packers in any way, shape, or form to win games without Parsons in the lineup. All right, D bro X factor. I'll leave this off with, I think the Packers win. And I think the X factor is Kyler Murray. And I think he's going to struggle here. And I understand the reasons why with Micah Parsons, but the counterpoint to that is I don't want to rush Kyler Murray. I want them to play contain. Like I want to force Kyler Murray to win from the pocket, which he can't. And if you're going to the other, I could also have thrown the X factor here to be Jonathan Gannon. If there is any coach in the entire freaking NFL that has an innate knowledge of what Kyler Murray does well and what he sucks at, it's Jonathan Gannon. And if you look at Kyler Murray, one Jonathan Gannon over the last three years has had the second or the third highest to high rate in the NFL, almost 58% of his snaps. Kyler Murray over the last two years amongst 31 qualifying passers against two high 14 lowest yards per attempt, 12th lowest EPA per drop back and 13th lowest highly accurate throw rate. Kyler cannot access the middle of the field. When you face too high, it's funneling everything down underneath. He cannot see the middle of the field. If they're going to contain him and not try to get him on, on as far as blitz him and rush him and stuff like that, they're going to force him to win for the freaking pocket. Kyler Murray cannot do that. I think the Packers win. Yeah. When I charted him and wrote up the profile for Kyler Murray for reception perception, I was just, I was like, I don't know. I was just grossed out. Good. Yeah. It's not good. It's just not good. I don't see the fit there in Minnesota. That's why he was my X factor as well here. I think that's what everyone wants to see is can he be a starting quarterback? And I think a lot of, a lot of, we get like these rose colored fantasy football glasses with Kyler Murray. We're like, he runs and then, and then, well, not us, but I'm saying like the industry as a whole, it's like he runs and he can be good for fantasy and he can help this person and that person. And that kind of distorts our view as to whether or not he's actually a good quarterback. And in this system too, where he's going to be asked to go under center a lot more, he's going to be asked to hit throws outside the numbers that he doesn't normally hit and hit in breakers and stuff that he doesn't typically do. Well, Kyler's actually become a check down King over the last few years. Like Jordan Mason might be looking at a career high and catches this year on this Vikings offense. So I'm deeper. I'm with you, man. Kyler is my X factor in this one. And I think in a bad way, I think the Packers sneak this one out this week. I don't want to put us too long on this one, but real fast. Just zooming out a hundred foot view. I do think the Vikings offense is going to be massively different. I think it's not going to be what we've seen in previous KOC offenses. They have been shrouded. They don't want anybody like videoing or letting any kind of news out. I think we're going to see a run heavy offense, and this is going to look very akin to the final years of Russell Wilson's career. I think it's going to be very run heavy. I think it's going to be boot action. I think it's going to be play action drops and DPs down the field. So I think the passing volume. Is going to drop for Minnesota this year. Alfredo, do you disagree Erickson? I mean, I can see that happening. Yeah, one. It's a function of Kyler can't run KOC's offense the way it's been designed. I guess to me that also suggests if they're running the ball effectively, then you can do more play action, get him out in space where he doesn't have to worry about like, oh, I got to see all the offensive linemen and he's on the move. I think to your point, it's like, don't stick him back there. Make him be a pocket pack, like get him out in space. And maybe that's where you're going to see it. better version of Kyler Murray where he can use his athleticism a little bit more he can run if he wants to if so yeah i agree with that all right we're going to give you guys some player specific predictions but before we do that you all watching and listening have a chance to win a todd gurley signed rams jersey all you've got to do if you want to win this okay subscribe to the tailgate youtube channel right now if you're already watching it's easy just click subscribe if you're listening head on over to the youtube you can do it on your phone it's really fast just go over there subscribe and then drop a comment below on any video if you want to do it on this one super easy and that's it and then you just hit the notification bell to make sure you know when all of the next episodes are coming out we're going to be announcing the winner right here on the channel so make sure that you are checking each and every one of those episodes to see if you win the Todd Gurley signed Rams giveaway boys let's do this let's take a look at some player predictions here initially we're going to team and players but we're kind of running behind so let's just do like specific players and what kind of prediction we might see because we did a lot of team talk here do you bro kick us off with a player that you think might surprise everyone or or some sort of a bold prediction you have for week one I think Emeka Ibuka is going to massively struggle this week and I think everybody that there's going to be an overreaction by the masses and saying okay now he's cooked or he's going to have a bad season a lot of the toe and all this kind of the kind of stuff I think it simply comes down to DG Turner is going to take him out of this game man DG Turner has proven himself to be one of the best shadow corners in the NFL Emeka ran 63.5% of his routes from the perimeter I think that number goes up this year DG Turner was freaking awesome last year all of these wide receivers from last season he followed in at least 60% of the routes DK Metcalf Justin Jefferson he followed DK twice Justin Jefferson Romeo Dobbs a flowers twice and yes Gabriel Davis is thrown in there just for S&Gs all of those wide receivers in that sample he allowed one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson went over 70 receiving yards in his coverage even if you zoom out Cincinnati went more single high last year 57% of their snaps when Emeka was at the height of his powers weeks one through five last year 1.36 yards per route run against single high so whether you want to talk about coverage DJ Turner all of it together Emeka Ibuka is not going to have a good game in week one I like that one well I mean I don't like it because I've got him on a lot of my famous teams so I kind of hate you and if he has a bad start I'm on the bench coming back and cursing you're on the bench and that goes maybe he's got the foot bad matchup bench I'm allowed to do that I'm allowed to do it Erickson player prediction for this week Jonathan Taylor is going to go nuclear against the Baltimore Ravens 150 plus yards and two touchdowns last year when the Colts faced Jesse Minner's defense when he was defensive coordinator of the Chargers they gave up a season-high 38 points it was the most points allowed by the Chargers all season long and came against this Colts offense led by Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen given all the question marks about Daniel Jones coming off of his Achilles I know the reports have been pretty positive about him but we'll see at full speed and live game action how his Achilles actually is doing and where his mobility is at and then with the wide receivers who seem like Alec Pierce is he going to be 100% how effective he's going to be I know Josh Gad's been in our lineup with some injury stuff Keenan Allen older wide receiver so I think the Colts keep the simple it's like uh let's just feed Jonathan Taylor 30 touches and just steamroll this Baltimore Ravens interior defensive line that they're hoping they get Madibuke back he's still not even a lock to play in this game coming off season-ending neck uh surgery last year so I think that this is something where Steichen makes the game plan really simple and that matchup against Jesse Minner's defense last year Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries 94 yards and not one not two but three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers so I think that he is in for a big game it's why the under does scare me a little bit but if it is Jonathan Taylor ball control maybe that speeds up the clock keeps Lamar Jackson off the field and that's how this game disappoints in the total score but I think that Jonathan Taylor is going to have a monster game that's the only thing that scares me there is that he is so game script dependent that if they get behind we may not see as many carries for him because if the Ravens offense comes out shooting the Ravens offense comes out shooting from the hip like early on we'll see we'll see man I like the the insight you gave us to Taylor versus Jesse Minter's defenses in the past so it gives me some hope there everyone is listening watching if you've been enjoying this show please make sure you subscribe to the channel here on YouTube or Apple or Spotify or wherever you're enjoying us okay because the tailgate channel is going to be bringing you episodes all the time it's not just our faces and voices that are on here but a whole crew of great analysts they're going to be bringing you all of the NFL action if you're also listening on Apple or Spotify please take a second to leave a review and if you're just like where do I find you on YouTube it's really simple search at tailgate NFL and you'll be able to find us there gents let's close this one out here with one thing to watch for week one in the NFL Erickson you're the only one that didn't put something on the show sheet here yet so go for it you get to go first I want to see the surprise what are you talking about you don't have anything I have an old copy yes I do oh well that's because I make a copy so I can oh interesting hey Alfredo is technically the only person that doesn't have anything in the sheet being called out and then being wrong about what's on the show no no no sir sir I made this copy an hour before the show what were you doing I was I was putting my my one thing to watch together that's exactly what I was doing I want to watch the I mean I want to watch the Patriots but they already played so I can't watch them okay so let's go to Debro all right Debro I'm going to watch the Jaguars offense against the Cleveland Browns because I think that this is going to be a total blowout I don't think this is even going to be close I would be happy to lay 14 points with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home because when you look at how well they played at home last year they had the highest average margin of victory by two touchdowns last season you're facing Deshaun Watson behind a banged up offensive line against a top tier run defense the Browns are gonna be super wonderful dimensional it's gonna be Deshaun Watson dropping back 40 45 times and just praying that he can complete a ball down the field to one of his wide receivers so I think the Jaguars defense is going to feast on Deshaun Watson and this Browns offense Quintan Judkins gonna be a total zero in the run game and we saw last year Liam Cohen Trevor Lawrence not afraid to run up the score on bad teams they threw all over the Jets they killed the Titans twice because they overmatched those two teams and we'll get a chance to kind of see how the hierarchy of the receivers and Titans is in this offense and then with the backfield as well who is seeing the majority of touches who's seeing the red zone usage between base I'll do it in Chris Rodriguez I think it's gonna be interesting because they're going to be able to do whatever they want and it will be interesting to see what Liam Cohen actually decides in the first half of the game okay who are we going to feature the most on this offense so I think Trevor Lawrence is going to ball out I think he's going to combine for four touchdowns and they're just going to smoke the Browns so I'm looking forward to watching this Jaguars offense I'm very invested in them Jaguars Trevor Lawrence for MVP so if he gets out on fire I think I'll be feeling really good after watching them on Sunday okay can I give you a crystal ball prediction of which one of these guys just actually balls out from the receiving court no that's no it's all Parker Washington baby he's gonna go new he's gonna go off he is gonna go off why do you think James Gladstone is trying to get this contract done before week one because the price is the price of the brick after week one is going on baby it's going up boy it's gotta get paid D bro let's hear what's your one thing to watch in week one the commander's offense and more specific their offensive line I'm so concerned about this going against the Eagles like is this offensive line going to be like can this team mitigate all of the injuries and the worries about this offensive line can or is it going to capsize this team from the jump and if it's going to be a problem then that early season schedule for the commanders is going to rear its head it's going to be ugly after the Eagles they get the Cowboys improved defensive line they get the Seahawks they get the Colts they get the Giants oh my lord then they get the 49ers maybe a small reprieve and then the Eagles again then the Rams and the Giants again then the Bengals I mean it's bad boys at the offensive line cannot hold up Jane Daniels good luck sir I just love that's the the commander's offensive line turns you into a southern bell oh my stars oh no again start fanning yourself Daniels oh hot and bothered here easy easy well see uh why don't we get to the person who didn't yeah what is that's it bye everyone enjoy week one is that what we're doing is that that how that go how you thought it was yeah I want you to adjust that's okay no my one thing to watch for week one is going to be the Bears off fence there has been so much talk from Ben Johnson about how he wants to break records Caleb Williams is now no longer goofy he's taking things more serious and we've seen mustache Caleb we've seen Caleb not painting his fingernails we've seen Caleb at Cubs games where he's fully embracing Chicago he's also the Madden cover athlete I mean it's just everything has been surrounding Chicago and now as we're approaching the season Roma Dunze is having complications health issues is he going to be okay I don't know I don't know I don't know I don't know if he's going to be ready to go is he not if he does go how good and how productive is he going to be in week one and then you've got to play that everyone is expecting or hoping for a big breakout with Colson Loveland and Luther Burden. I am so curious to see what this offense looks like in week one. I can't wait. I can't wait to watch this team and see how good it ends up being. But guys, I know after week one, there's going to be a ton of overreaction, especially in like the fantasy football area. I tweeted this out a couple days ago. It's like you go back and look at all the players who were at the top of fantasy production in week one and then like towards the bottom. And a bunch of them were guys that either they were at the top and they ended up being terrible later on throughout the year, or they were near the bottom and ended up being great. So like, can we please just not overreact to week one? I think this is a Travis Fulgham tweet. I think the way that you're describing it, Alfredo, is to just zig while others zag. So whoever gets buried after week one, you buy. And whoever we go way too far out on one side of the ledge on, you sell. That's the move. Here, you want it? You want to hear it? I tweeted this out yesterday, please. Last year after week one, Drake May was the quarterback 18 in fantasy. Jameer Gibbs was running back 36. George Pickens was wide receiver 65. And Trey McBride was the tight end 17. Anyone who was able to like make some sort of move after a week one, the guys just don't panic. Don't panic. I know we're talking about who are the good guys that we should have sold, though. Do you have that? You have that list? Don't. Don't. All right. For next week. I was too busy. I was too busy. I was too busy writing Bears offense on my side of the show sheet. Yeah, yeah. It took him a long time. So. All right, guys. Before we head out here, please, if you have not already, make sure you check out the betting pros podcast for the best NFL bets during each of those weeks here in the season for I mean, for all the top bets. Guys, you guys put your NFL bets there on the betting. Yeah, I mean, I mean, Debra went head to head on a certain rookie running back prop in the Patriots Seahawks game and only one of us was right. We'll see. Sick. We'll see. I mean, that's kind of how it goes, right? One of you is typically going to be right if you get a push or if a guy gets injured or scratch or that. Yeah, I'll get so much more out of this by taking Erickson down. All right. I think that's going to do it for us here. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching. Listen all the way through to the tailgate. For myself, for Debo, for Erickson, we'll see you next time. Adios. The podcast from Truist Wealth. Available on Apple Podcast, Spotify or at truist.com forward slash do that. Each episode walks through real life scenarios simply and without judgment. The next step is to talk with a Truist Wealth advisor who can help build a plan around you. Truist Bank member FDIC. Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done. 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