NFL Week 1 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2184)

This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. - Hey, I'm Mike Am. - And I'm Trevor Sikima. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. - Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? - Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. - Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, would you be the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count? - Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the I Heart Radio App, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Welcome into bedding pros. This is the week one prop show. I'm Chris Welsh. That is Andrew Erickson. We are back for, I believe, us together is our third straight year. And we are going to be going through our top 10 favorite prop bets for week one. And then we're not gonna even be done there. We got a little bit more. We're gonna get back into the touchdown streets. We're gonna be tracking them again this year. Little extra wrinkle on the touchdowns. And, because Andrew Erickson asks you, you make it happen. First touchdowns. We are going to be putting a first, our favorite first touchdown for the week at the bottom of the list. So if you guys wanna play a guessing game, here is where it is. Every single week, guess what second tight end on a team will be Erickson's big play. And you know he's gonna hit one or two and it's gonna be big money. That's what we got in store for you here on the bedding pros prop show. I'm super stoked to be back with you Erickson. I'm excited to dig into all these. I will say not feeling so great after I felt so good on wins and I felt about Rashid Shaheed. Thursday night football. I felt so good about to join struggling. None of those are worked out. So I'm a little bit timid about the props we're gonna release today. But we are coming right off of a Wednesday and a Thursday night game. We're both of our teams played. So I'm glad to be back in the streets with you brother. Yeah, man, there's so much NFL action happening right now. My mind can go in so many different ways. It's actually Friday here while we're recording. So I am on Australia time. You are still in the depths of September 10th on Thursday. So it must be nice. But we are here on Friday and I'm just reflecting on all the stuff that's happened. My two sleeper picks have totally bombed in back-to-back weeks with Rashid Shaheed bombed. Stribbling's already injured. So it's probably not gonna be the sleeper this year. So the fantasy pro sleeper rankings not doing so hot. But on the bedding pros card primer this week. Sweat the board on Thursday night football. A perfect five, four, five. The under, of course, that I was pounding table four since May essentially it did cash. Despite the fact that the foreigners look like they might cover it on their own because they just kept scoring so many points. I get the Rams defense that Miles Garrett was barely even playing in this game. So that's a bit of a shocker. But under 48 and a half points by Korm over 35 and a half rushing our tea look explosive. Karim Williams under 13 and a half carries. Debo Samuel over two and a half catches. And of course, the Mike Evans anytime touchdown. On the beautiful fade. Oh, just absolutely gorgeous chef's kiss. So a good Thursday night. Let's keep it rolling into the Sunday sleep. - Yeah, I mean, let's take those good vibes into this show. This is one of my favorite shows. We do every single year. Every single week I look forward to it. And I think it's one of the higher performing betting pro shows we do because we're talking props. And we have a ton of fun with it. We'll get into ladders, Eric and I are super invested in it and we want you guys to be as well. So please feel free in the comments. Drop some of your favorite props you guys can talk about. All right, however you want to do it, we love to have your interaction and we'll take a look. Especially if I can look in the comments and it's a safe space. I'll look and we can see if there's some fun props. You guys make it a not safe space and good order here. But if it's fun, we'll take a look. We'll see if you guys hit some killer props. But another way that you can do that is by downloading the betting pros app. We're not only is it going to give you so much great access to whether you're looking for smart money plays. You want to do some of the stuff we're talking about here where you can do the prop cheat sheet, the prop analyzer. You want to get into game picks. You want to have customized information but you can also track everything. When you sync your sportsbooks with the betting pros app, you can track your progress. There's so many, so many great tools with it. Make sure you download the betting pros app. You can check out all the stuff we're talking about and have the entire slate at your fingertips. So without further ado, let's jump into this. We, as I mentioned before, we will be having a board rather than I'm gonna have a board right now. We're gonna have a board tracking what our bets are. If we are rocking or if we're buns, we will have the touchdown marker where we'll be marking. This is the change this year. The correct touchdown calls, but we are also going to track the ROI on it. Just because Ericson might drop us a 12 to one tight end and he deserves extra credit for that. So we'll be tracking those as well, trying to keep ourselves honest and whatever depression or excitement that's gonna lead to. But we'll be tracking the board. We'll have that for you here, but let's jump into this. It's time for the top 10 prop bets and let's jump into number one with you, Mr. Andrew Ericson, why don't you kick us off? - I'm going with Jonathan Taylor over 76 and a half rushing yards at home against the Baltimore Ravens. It's weird. Usually when I do a lot of these player props, it's usually not the most marquee guys that I grabbed towards. And what I was looking for, these scrubby players with these really low under-over or totals that I'm trying to, okay, he can just surpass this type of number. Usually I stay away from some of these bigger numbers. - Yeah, we're so each ahead. - To Jean Striblin. - Yeah, we're changing here. But I just, you know, for week one, I'm just gonna start your studs, man. So I'm going to Jonathan Taylor here. Jonathan Taylor and his career playing at home in Indianapolis has average over 100 rushing yards per game. So this is where he's at his best. I look at this particular matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defensive front that I think is gonna give up some decent rushing production. If you look at the Ravens last year, they gave up a lot of stuff on the ground, especially because they were dealing with a ton of injuries because of Metabookay being hurt. He is still not even locked to play in week one because he's coming off that season ending neck injury. And Clay's Campbell can only do so much as a four-year-old defensive tackle that is the interior that's trying to stop arguably one of the best running backs in the NFL. We saw all the Colts last year rely on Jonathan Taylor to start the season. And given all the question marks we have about, well, how's Dan Jones gonna look coming off as a killeys? What is the state of this wide receiver room with Alec Pierce-Mitching so much time? Keenan Allen, a little bit older, Josh Downs, dealing with some injuries. I think that's simple as maybe just give Jonathan Taylor a 30 touches and just let him run wild against this beatable Ravens defense. When the Colts faced Jesse Minter's defense last year, when he was the defense coordinator for the Charters, Jesse Minter now the Baltimore Ravens head coach. They scored 38 points against them. That was the most points the Charters had allowed all season. Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries for 94 yards and not one, not two, but three touchdowns for JT against the Charters, Jesse Minter's defense. So I think that he goes for 100 rushing yards here and the fact that his prop is at 76 and a half rushing yards. It seemed kind of low to me. Usually JT I'm expecting to be in the 80s if not higher, especially playing at home. So I'm gonna take advantage of it, give me JT. - They're real in a sense. They want us to see those numbers and I completely agree with you. Also, if you take a look at like trying to play it easy with Daniel Jones, like are they gonna want a lot of script, like they're gonna want to run the ball as much as possible, control the clock, temper the injury stuff early on, probably short line passes. I'm not sure this is like the best spot for Alec Pierce. I like it for Josh Downs and I like this for Jonathan Taylor. I want to say his reception prop is also something that the cheat sheet likes are the analyzer. So something we can kind of come back to. My first prop of the year and it's one kind of been talking about on lots of shows on the tailgate and a bunch of different places that I am very much into what the chargers are gonna do this year. I have taken on my inner d-bro without shaving my head yet and I've fallen in love with Quentin Johnston. And I really think, as I've said, just of Gajillion Times, like I think Mike Rick Daniel has this new toy that he's just like, wow, you know, he had a toy before, but you know those toys that like their arms don't move and they're just like a still, and then all of a sudden you get an action figure and the arms move and then you can adjust the elbows and you can make them do that's what he has now in Herbert from Tuha. He had this broken piece that stuck together and never did anything and now he can let this fly and who's the guy, who's the perfect piece for them to let it fly? It's Quentin Johnston. And I really like this spot. He's actually hit this marker in two of his last three games of the chargers. I think they're going to, like I said, big fly overall. But also if you're looking from a matchup perspective, now I respect what PFF does when you look at some of the matchups to have cardinals. I mean, obviously we're gonna see the defenses go, ranked 32 of 32. It's not the best cornerback matchups in general. So I think the chargers are going to stomp down on the cards. I think the chargers are going to be able to establish a run in a play action. And I think early on Quentin Johnston is going to be able to get one of those big long ones. Those 40 pluses. So his prop, I said all of that without saying his prop, is 42.5. I love the 42.5. If you take a look over on betting pros, this is over projections. It's not in love with this, like I am. It's not a five star better, anything like that. But his projections on betting pros are at 45. And I think there's a few other spots where projections are in favor of that. If you can find the line even a little bit lower in the 39s, that was a really good spot. But 42 and a half, I'm still with it because I think Quentin Johnston could do this in a one shot. So I am heavy in the streets on him. That one is sitting at, you know, like a standard, like one minus one 14. Speaking of the cheat sheet, as mentioned before, you can find the best NFL prop bets with bet. betting pros, prop bet cheat sheet. If you don't want to go in and dig and do all that type of stuff, they are going to show you with a lot of analysis as well. Some of the best plays that is backed by so much great information and analysis. You can quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily projections to cover the props offering the most value, make smarter prop betting decisions. I'll season long at betting pros dot com slash props. That's betting pros dot com slash props. Don't let me try to sell you on it. Go check it out for yourself and you decide highly suggest it. Number two in the props sheet. So obviously this is going to be three and four, but this is our second favorite props. Erickson, are you going to go with another over as the undertaker not jumped into, you know, and taken over you? You're juggling hide. You're juggling under taking the unders on the game totals this week, but not on all these player props because especially when we're talking about the lines and saints playing at Ford field, the chorus field of the NFL. Not every under is going to hit this week because the lines are having a home game. And there's going to be points scored galore. John Johnson tied in for the norons. He's going to go over 42 and a half receiving arts playing at Detroit. He is a clear cut. Number two receiver on the Saints offense without Jordan Tyson in the lineup. Chris Alabe is the number one. But I think that John Johnson just kind of being heavily underrated. This player last year was fifth and catches and third in receiving arts among all tight ends. Every single one and he was a complete afterthought in fantasy draft until Jordan Tyson got injured. I think that this is a spot where Tyler Schuck, if he's going to be dropping back to throw 40 or 45 times while the lines are putting up a 30 burger on the Saints defense. We know, Kellan more likes to play fast in dome settings. They're going to run so many plays is going to be so many pass attempts that I think this is an easy number for Johnson to go over. For me, you look at, he went over this number in five of his last eight games played and we saw him having much bigger role in terms of a target chair when the team moved on from Rashid Jheed when he was the clear cut number two, which is what I'm expecting in this particular matchup. So given the injuries to all of the lion's secondary pieces, they're still missing their two stud safeties, Kirby Joseph, Brian Branch, those guys run the pup, they're not going to play. And they're deploying some of the oldest cornerbacks in the NFL, Rockets and DJ Reed. I just think this is a great spot for John Johnson to continue his chemistry with Tyler Shuck again. Remember, they played it organ together. However many years ago that was so they got the chemistry, John Johnson have faith in him this week. All right. This has been you talk about just kind of locking into our dudes. I'm going to lock into one of the dudes that you and I have been steadfast on. I think we were doing, what was it? We were doing our show, the extra point, which is a kind of a podcast exclusive that we also doing discord. And someone was asking us a parker, a Washington question and they were just like, by the way, you two were so much higher than ECR and we're like, yeah, because we love the matchup. And I think DeBro has done a really great breakdown, make sure to check out the primer. In that parker Washington is set up for a really good matchup, specifically if he's going to have Miles Harden on him, PFF Grace Miles Harden, who's covering out of the slot, 106 out of 109 in cornerbacks. And obviously that's where parker Washington is going to be. We're going to lock down the outside, that's why we don't like Brian Thomas. And this is a spot for parker Washington to dominate to dominate. So what is the bet here? Well, check this out. We can get plus money on parker Washington at five catches over 4.5 with a line of around plus 118. That's a consensus line you saw on betting pros. And this is a four star rated bet, obviously on a five, but a four star rated bet on the betting pros app. So there's some market EV percentage pluses. There's a projection EV plus on this. I'm all for this because you and I have been pretty locked in that we think parker Washington is going to be the dominant player. The matchup says that the slot corner coverage, I'm obviously they can make some adjustments, but Harden is the slot cover guy. Parker Washington should be eaten in this one. And they're going to slaying the ball a little bit. So you're getting plus money on five catches to a player that we think is a top 24 fantasy wide receiver. And if he's really going to dominate, this should be an easy number. And though the Browns defense carries a little bit more juice, it's not, you know, obviously Garrett is back. And as mentioned, there's a hole at the corner back spot and it is later the way he plays. So 4.5 receptions over at plus money for parker Washington. That is my second and one of my favorites on this card. We've got three more each that are coming up, but I want to talk to you guys about polymarket. It's time to level up your approach to the NFL and college football this season because polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states. 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Playing like a number 10, do you know what that means? Then we go over to France. Liga. Liga. Liga? Liga? Liga. You know what's more, he's better of me. What do you think is harder? Scoring a penalty kick or scoring a field goal? He's an NFL and I'm like, just a big fat guy, I do know that's crazy. Join us each week for a quick chat with your soccer-loving bros about the best sport in the world. Soccer. Just don't tell my coaches I said that. Send a big kick energy on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. Props. Three. So we're four and five, four and five for us, but our third on the list is we're each going to be giving you five and we are going to stick with some overs. So we're going to jump back into you. This is the most Ericsson of Ericsson dudes all season long. I would have been disappointed in you. There's a longstanding player that is ours. Our mascot of the show is who? Don't say this guy. You know who the mascot is. Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle. Thank you. I wasn't rhetorical. I wanted you to say it. Jalen Waddle is the mascot. And Jalen Waddle leaves this team to, I think, what is like your mascot for tight-end drafting this year. So you've got a tight-end in the prop market that you really like. Greg Dahlsitch, tight-end for the Miami Dolphins, potentially the last man standing of the passcatchers, over 24 and a half receiving arts. A very low number because we're not exactly sure how the target's the pecking order is going to shake out in this Dolphins receiver room. They're going to be starting two rookie wide receivers between Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell along with Malik Washington. That's probably going to be the starting three set. Greg Dahlsitch is the most accomplished out of all those guys, considering two of them are rookies. And I never played in the NFL. So he went over this number. His last five games played with the Miami Dolphins last season. Remember Bobby Slavic, the new officer coordinator for the Miami Dolphins. He was with the team last year. So he saw Greg Dahlsitch be productive when they featured him a little bit more in the passing game. He also went over 21 and a half receiving arts and all but one of his last nine games played. So he's been consistently hitting around this number and just given the fact that there are no dominant target earners in this Miami Dolphins offense. I think this is a good opportunity for him to step up, create some yards out of the catch. And a game that I know that losing Brock Bauer is definitely poor. Some cold water on Fitz's take that this game would go over 15 and a half points, but I still think that just based on how bad both defenses are. This could be one of those like gross vomit stack type of games where it actually is kind of fun because no many defense can stop anybody on offense, even if it's Kirk cousins. So I like Dolphsitch to go over this number, specifically looking at the matchup, looking at the Raiders linebackers in safety room. Isaiah Polomalo, PFF's fourth worst grade coverage safety last season. He's got to be starting Jeremy Chin, allowed the eighth highest pass rating when targeted last season for the Raiders and Quay Walker, their new acquisition at linebacker, allowed the fifth most yards as a coverage linebacker in his last season with the Green Bay Packers. Jeff Hathley is from Green Bay. He knows how to attack a guy like Quay Walker and think he's going to do that with somebody like Greg Dolphsitch. You're going to see the hair flowing as those is running down a leeching stadium to yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun. It's a lot of passion, by the way, on betting pros, this is a four star bet. So, you know, anytime you can try to track and get that four or five star, there's a lot of backing, EV plus. on this line might move a little bit as well. But now it has it was at like 16 when it first opened up. It's that's 26 right now. The consensus line on Betty Prices were recording this and you got it at 24. So I I got it like 16 and a half. Okay. I got a lot of Chris Bell guy and I don't see a lot of Chris Bell stuff out there. So that's going to be one of those late ones I'm in, but I'm totally down with this. And you know, let's see if there's actually points being scored. We'd be tough to watch this one. Thank God. The red zone is built for games like this and then the Jets and Titans because that's the only way that they're getting any numbs. All right. My third one, this is one I put on the fantasy side. And I did kind of a start and sit short. I talked about this guy, but I'm pretty pro rico doubtal. And I think this is one of the bigger projection versus line numbers that we have out here. I'm betting pros is the four star bet and I'm looking at the rushing yards and I'm going over 42.5 on rico doubtals over that line 42.5 is the consensus. Maybe there's even some others flowing down there a little bit lower, but the projections have got them at 52 are fantasy pros projection. So there's a nice cushion that's sitting out there. Also, if you're looking defensively, the defensive line, if you're again looking at kind of coverages, they're a bottom 10 defense, not even probably countering just all of the issues with injuries and misplayers, like I don't think on paper, it shows like the problem that this defense really might end up being, but defensive line rating is bad. Like I said, bottom, bottom 10 ish, bottom 1012 in the league. And I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to try to play the ball on the ground as much as they possibly can. And they got a new toy in rico doubtal. Jalen Warren's going to get his, but I feel relatively confident you're going to see a heavy dose of doubtal. By the way, if you look at the rushing attempt number, it's kind of heavy juiced at 11.5. So if they're projecting that we're going to go over 12 here, 12 to 13, I just got to get 42 from rico doubtal. He is going to run on these falcons. So this is again, this is one of my favorite ones. It's kind of a lower number. This actually, well, you know what, I think I think I actually, this actually moved. It was a five star bet. It was one of the top ones at one point. I think it might have changed, but it was the number two in running back EV on the betting pros cheat sheet. If you go and check that out, still pretty high up in the streets. They're still a five four star, but it just moved down a little tiny bit. But I love me some rico doubtal number four for on the list here. Will the undertaker rise? Yes, he will. Jalen hurts is going to finish under 29 and a half passing attempts. This is one, this is a mark that I've been pretty good on using the prop that cheat sheet, the unders on passing attempts, the unders on rushing attempts. I feel like this is a good sweet spot for the proper cheat sheet, specifically with the ones that I look at hurts in this matchup against the Washington commanders. I don't think that the commanders have much of a chance in this particular game. I think that the Eagles defense is going to swarm and overwhelm Jalen Daniels in this bad offensive line. They're playing at home Eagles home games tend to lean towards the under and given that it is a new offense for Jalen hurts with Sean Manion again, Sean May, it's coming from the Green Bay Packers coaching tree where what's the biggest complaint we have with these Green Bay coaching staff is let your love cook man. No, it's like we got to run ball. We got to run the ball. I think that's where you're going to see in this game. It's going to be a lot of safe one bark league. He's healthy and ready to go. The offensive line is healthy and ready to go. And I think it's interesting when you look at the game splits, what you can do on betting pros, if you take Lane Johnson, make sure that he's in the lineup. Hurtz has gone under 29 and a half basking nubs in seven of his last 10 starts when Lane Johnson is healthy because they'd like to run the football when they have their stud right tackle in there. So I think in this particular matchup, again, this is a five star bet of the prop that cheat sheet based on the projected game script, unless the commander do something really crazy and force the Eagles to be pass heavy. I just don't think that's going to be the case here. I think it's going to be a run heavy approach. So the projections also great. Babe hurts for 27 pass attempts. So I'm taking the under. Did you happen to use the with or without tool on fantasy pros when you did that? Was that part of your process that you just said? So I didn't use the with or without you tool on fantasy pros because I use the betting pros one, which is similar in a couple of different ways, but specifically to because I was looking at like fantasy points, I was looking at attempts, and I was able to to pull that there. But I'm sure that's also accessible on the fantasy pros tools. Well, and I have a little reason I also I'm talking about that because the next one I'm going to go, I'm going to go with another over. Remember, is it the over the undertaker and is it the over here? Is I'm going to go with Michael Mayer and I'm going to go with this receiving yards over 39.5. Obviously, there's no rock powers here. Juice is kind of normal, but specifically this tool we have, which if I don't remember what the short link is, but if you type in like with or without splits, fantasy pros with or without split, that tool instantly come up. And I did as the news came down, a Michael Mayer without Brock Bowers. And when you know it, take away fantasy points for a second, he averages when Bowers is not on the lineup. And this isn't, you know, even to this new offense, around six targets and averages are on 49 yards. It's like four point something catches and 49 yards. Well, guess what? His receiving total in this game is 39.5. So I think this is a good spot where they got no receivers. I mean, I don't mind Trey Tucker in this, but this is not a good defense from the dolphins whatsoever. Buns, as you would say, there's not a whole lot of offensive weapons, especially of Ashton Gentius out there. And Michael Mayer is proven to be a really solid tied in. So much so that a lot of fantasy people's consensus is a top 10 tied in this week. So I can also present to you the tool without Brock Bowers. He smashes this line. So regardless of where, you know, projections are on obviously like the the Betty Pros projection isn't in there. But guess what? It actually likes the over as a five star bet this week for Michael Mayer over receiving yards. So that's one that I am going to be stabbing here 39.5 over Michael Mayer on the receiving yards for my fourth prop bet. And that is going to take us to our final one here. And you're going to jump into the tight end market. And I just as a tease have my first under of the year as well. So why don't you kick us off with your final prop? You got to have an under at least one on the show sheet. There's no way any of us are ever going to hit five overs. Well, I've I've definitely done five overs on it. I don't think I hit all of them. Exactly. Exactly. It's why you got to throw in under just for good measure. You got to please the prop gods. Jake Ferguson under three and a half receptions. This is a Sunday night football prop going to New York to take on big blue. This one's pretty simple where it goes down to the splits when Jake Ferguson has played. I did use the fantasy pros with or without you tool for this particular one. When Jake Ferguson has played with CD lamb George pickets and Ryan Floreny in the lineup. He averages under this number. And it's a pretty large sample size of when he has played with those particular players. So Ferguson is an afterthought. I think when those other guys are helping in the lineup, I also expect that Dallas Cowboys can be able to run the football pretty effectively against a Dexter Lawrence less giant defense. I think Javante Williams is going to have a monster game top five fantasy option this week. So I think Jake Ferguson just kind of be me this week. So under three and a half catches. All right. My final one. I am going to go to the Monday night game. And I will be backed by I'm you know, heavy into betting pros here on the cheat sheet this week. This is a five star bet. And this had the highest EV return. You can sort by EV here. And Xavier worthy under receiving yards was the top play. It is under 38.5 with the betting pros projection of 31.5. So absolutely all about this one. And I'm kind of with it. There's I think there's a lot of questions around Patrick Mahomes and what the offense looks like. You're adding bat. You got Rashid Rice. You got Travis Kelsey. You're adding in Cyrus Allen who I don't think is not nothing. And you got Ken Walker. And I think you're obviously going to they're going to see a heavy dose of Ken Walker. Now the one caveat could be is if Denver starts to put this game away in some capacity and they're throwing a whole lot more. We know worthy can definitely get to this marker. But I am going to play this under the I think two of his last three. He has not been able to go over this. He's not a feature piece of this offense. At least anymore. At least I'm going to learn otherwise and you know end around to what not. But I like this. I like the five star bet. So I'm going to play the under 38.5 receiving yards with a nice cushion on the betting pros projection. And that are 10 five of a piece prop bets for week one. Now can Xavier really hit this number or will he hit this over? That is the question to ask. And the answer is no. No. Oh, you're with me. Do you like this one? Yes. Yes. I think with a lot of these boomer bus receivers. It's proven man. Prove that you can go over three and a half receiving because I know we hold it in the back of our mind. He's a deep threat. He's going to come down with a catcher. But when I was staring at one of the props I was looking at Xavier look at him like this guy really going to catch two passes. Yeah. Were these not going to get me with volume by the way. I don't think he's going to kill me with volume. You're going to kill me with one big plug. I just I just stared at the Xavier look at one and a half perceptions prop probably for like two minutes thinking this guy can't catch cold man. Like so. I can't get two minutes. I was thinking about it. But it's the bear's even it's the bear's deep. It's just a matter who he's playing. Just these subpar wide receivers keep it in the runners. Prove it to you that they're going to beat you. So I think that this is a good process. But hey, it is week one. It's a lot of proving ground stuff. We have to we're citing kind of like last year things. We've got to see what these offenses are going to look like. I mean, hell, I've never talked to Bogman before the Thursday and I football game. We share a big league we do with DVR from Athletic. And I've told you about it. It's like, you got to do a DFS lineup and you got to do picks and you got to do survivor and all this. And the picks were in. I had put the Patriots in the Wednesday night game. He was against me, but I took it. He did not want to take my night. He told me he's like, the Rams are going to annihilate the Niners. And I'm like, all right, man, I'm like three and a half for the Niners as a play. So, you know, I thought the Niners defensive be buns. And we just have got to, we've got to see these play out. So in that is sometimes you're going to have to be proven wrong in this and I'm using that story to kind of agree with you on the Xavier worthy. And that takes us to touchdowns. We are going to be making two touchdown calls a piece and a first touchdown. That's a new added edition. But we want to tell you guys, we've got a really, really great thing for you to check out when you are setting in your touchdowns. It's betting pros.com/touchdown. That's the touchdown score report. If you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, this is your place. Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets, head to betting pros.com/touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis. Do it today. And that is going to take us to our two touchdowns. Our kind of theme that we are going to be going with this year is we're going to have kind of one lock-ish type. But I don't want to say lock-ish because I've got to be honest with you, the two guys we picked that are under plus 150 aren't exactly locks are not big names. But essentially it's an under plus 200 and then an over 200. That over 200 might get wild. In this case, they're both around two and a half to one. So that's going to be kind of the theme in the vibe of how we do our touchdowns. So, Erickson, your two touchdown calls for week one are who? - Tuvalen Johnson at plus 240. I talked about how much I like him in this particular matchup going up against the Detroit Lions with their injured secondary, taking the over on his receiving yards. It's interesting when you look at the total amount of yards and catches that Tuvalen Johnson had last year. The reason he hasn't had as much publicity when it comes to his tight end-breaking offense is because he only scored three touchdowns last year. Like that's kind of what held him from actually cracking the top 12 despite having really strong yardage and reception numbers. Basically, only Justin Jefferson was worse in terms of scoring touchdowns last year based on the amount of volume that they saw. You look at the way that the Saints' offense is constructed. Travis HN is not a great red zone runner. Alvin Camara is an aging asset to this team. Tastes of Hill is no longer part of this team. So, I think there's an actual big red zone opportunity for Tuvalen Johnson to step up without Jordan Tyson in the lineup. So, I think that he is primed for some positive touchdown regression and when you're playing at four field, that's where you're going to score a lot of touchdowns. So, I think John Johnson's going to score this week and I think he's going to score a lot this season to be honest. So, he's my number one and then Rico Dattle, a player that you like, I think of all your props that you listed out, the Rico Dattle one that stood out to me the most as an absolute layup at 42 and a half rushing yards when he is set up so well in a perfect type of game script where they're playing at home against the Falcons team that Tuvalen got hurt on Thursday. There's a chance that it's Cooper Rush or Jack Strand out there playing on the road in Pittsburgh. Mike McCarthy knows Cooper Rush because he coached him in Dallas. So, he knows his weaknesses and I think that they're not going to overthink it and there's going to feed Uncle Rico to his heart's desire. I don't know if you can pull it up, but did he face the Falcons last year in a Belcal role? Did we get to see that last year from Rico? 'Cause obviously he was with the Panthers but I know that he didn't get unleashed until the second half of the season to be curious to see how he played in those games. But regardless-- - Okay, so wait, what do you want? You want when he did he go against the Falcons? - The Falcons, yeah. 'Cause he was really happy. - Okay, I do have it up here. He did, oh, he did go against the Falcons. - Okay. - He was-- - One week. - Yeah, it was week three where he had 10 attempts for only 30 yards. So that wasn't special. And he did have 19, but it was for only 45 against the Falcons. So they were kind of underwhelming, but the defense that the Falcons are now putting out there is much worse. - And I would agree, much worse. - And it would have been super cool, by the way, if it was one of those like 200 yards, like that would have been such a good correlation. - I just don't remember which games that that happened in, but we know that once you get Rico going, he is a freight train. So I think that he is a good bet to score. I think process wise, I always find it interesting when a running back that I think it's probably the safer bet to see the majority of red zone attempts for the Pittsburgh Stewards. I think that's more Rico Dallas prof. And I'll just say to you more, it's never gonna score a touchdown. But I think that's probably where Rico Dowd will get the nod over Jalen Warren, Steelers, Home Favorites, starting running back in the red zone, at plus Miami score a touchdown, right? Like that shouldn't be, those types of bets are ones that I think are really good value, because if you look at every other home team favorite, they're starting running back, it's all minus. It's all, and it's minus, Jamira gave us minus 370. - Like, so I think that this is a good process played with Rico. - All right, I have made a change on one of mine, and I'm disgusted with myself, because the number is actually just so good and to think that I can get this at a better number, I'll be, this is transparency. I had Quentin Johnston on this list. I still love it, I still believe in him. It was plus 140, but I am making the adjustment because Jamison Williams is plus 180. I'm getting better odds on that. By the way, Jared Goff for two touchdowns is like minus 200. So like, we're in the lock to touchdown market. This is such a good spot for Jamison Williams. And we know how he plays. Catch it at his ankles, run 50 yards, bam touchdown score and win. I just think these are really almost two to one on Jamison Williams in this matchup, going up against the Saints. I'm all for it. And then my long shot one is, I'm kind of gross with myself, a trade talker. I mentioned like, yes, I think Michael Mayer is gonna get volume, but this Dolphins defense is bad. If there is, before this injury of Bowers, you had amazingly smart people like Fitz talking about how we might have a ton of scoring because of these defenses. Well, that one thing isn't gonna change everything. Trade talker is still gonna be going up against those cornerback. And he's got big breakaway speed. And I think he's the guy that is going to single himself out as their main wide receiver. So points being scored. I'm getting around two and a half to one. I'm picking trade talker. That's a deep name. Jamison Williams and trade talker on the anytime touchdown for me. Rico Dattle and John Johnson for you. And then our newest addition to in this out is our first touchdown. This is Erickson's probably favorite market. I have definitely had some fun because I've hit some big smashes. Nothing feels better than when you get it, but they're big, giant odds. So you gotta be careful with it. We are each gonna pick one. And I will say the prime time games, as you've said a million times, it's the best thing to bet a first touchdown is in the prime time games because you're hyper focused. But because we're doing the entire slate, you're gonna get one player. They got us score first. So which backup tight end is it? And how big are the odds? Well, I don't know if this is a backup tight end. Charlie Colar plus 2000 to score the first touchdown for the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals game, expecting the Chargers to score a boatload of points in this particular matchup. So I think Charlie Colar is going to see red zone opportunities. And I think that just based on what we saw during the preseason, that he's going to probably play the most snaps out of the tight ends in that room, ahead of David and Jogu, ahead of Arunda Gatsden. And they like him from a blocking perspective. So yeah, I think that play action. You're going to see him running the back of the end zone. And Charlie Colar's going to come down with the first touchdown and get the Arunda Cardinals. So that's my bet here. Arunda was also really bad against tight ends last year. They're the bottom five unit across the board. No, Jogu, the game is no longer a defensive coordinator there, but the guy that they promoted to defensive coordinator was with Arunda the last couple of years under Jonathan Gennan, Michael Ford kind of retained him. So I wouldn't expect them to be a juggernaut against tight ends in any way, shape or performing Charlie Colar. They paid. They liked him a lot. And he's an underrated receiver. So a 20 to one, especially two, because when I think back to the first time I got into these first touchdown bets, it was Donald Palm, Jr. Catching the first touchdown from Justin Herbert. Like that was the first time I was like, this is unhooked. I had a prime time one. It was one of the two Monday ones. And I hit both game ones. I hit Isaiah likely. And I'm forgetting who it was like Keenan Allen, I think. It was like Keenan Allen. And Isaiah likely I hit it. And I think I like immediately text you. And it was like some absurd. It was one of those were you disgusted with yourself. You're like, why didn't I put $2,000 on this? I'd be rich. But I put $2 on this. Why did I put my mortgage on Eli Rared and first touchdown on Wednesday and I football? You get so excited that you're like, oh, I got it. Put $8 on this. What an idiot. But it's like, you know, the odds. I like yours. Mine I fall in love with. I could be honest with you. There's two guys in this game. If I could play both of these and you get great odds for it. If I were going on the Viking side, I think Jordan Addison is really fun. But my official pick is going to be Matthew Golden. And Matthew Golden is at 19 to one. I mean, just barely under your Colour one. And you know, Golden steps into like a much bigger spot from a cornerback matchup perspective. It is as a little bit tougher. But if you got Pierre locking down Watson, that's going to leave opportunities. And you know, Golden can play the bigger outtree and he can go and he can play the deep ball. So I think Golden isn't a really good spot here. Let Jordan Love cook. We see that here. 19 to one first touchdown for Matthew Golden. So Charlie Colour Golden for the first touchdowns, Tucker, James of Williams, John Johnson and Rico Dotto for the touchdowns. Who are yours? Drop them in the comments below for your favorite touchdown. Calls love to see. We got to see some first touchdowns. We will celebrate you if you got time stamp it before the games. If you hit one, Erickson will look in the comments and then we will, I won't not going to do it. And then we'll pull out if anybody hits it and we'll, we'll celebrate them and give you some kudos and we'll check out how we did next week. That's going to do it, man. That's it. Week one is here. Make sure to download the betting pros app. Prop bet cheat sheet is going to be your friend, prop bet analyzer for any that you want to check out as far as like the star ratings we've talked about, any of the data, download the betting pros app. And I really highly suggest you get premium on it. Go and, you know, whether it's just syncing it for sportsbook and making your life easier there or checking out all the great tools. Like I said, don't let me try to sell you on it, go and check it out for yourself. Highly, highly suggest you do it. And make sure you come back with us here. We'll be back next week. That is it. That is all that we did you have another thing? You want to finger one last thing, one last thing to send the people off on. Remember how much money you would have made if you bet on Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown every single week. Okay, so this is the famous rollover idea where if Christian McCaffrey, what was it like 12 straight weeks? Right, we should be like a millionaire if you bet. And then you took your money and you rolled it over and you did it again. Okay, so what's what's the theme here? I want to do that with Jemere Gibbs this year. I think that's the play. I think that without Dave Montgomery, the fact they have the easiest schedule in the NFL, Jemere Gibbs is going to be having a second home in the end zone to see how many weeks or you're going to do this? What do you want to make a commitment? I mean, I guess it takes. Well, okay, you're these just scores 17 straight. I honestly, I would not surprise me if he scores 30 touchdowns. You have to cash out at 10. If it gets to 10, you got to cash out 10 weeks in a row. Yeah, I might do that with Mike Evans, by the way, because Mike Evans is on his way. Well, dude, he's way scarier with that because you know he's going to miss some games in his hamstring. All right, all right. So, okay, we're going to do that. Let's have an official ticker. If we can get people on here, bet on Gibbs. We'll tell you we'll do, we'll have production. This, by the way, this segment might die next week if he doesn't score this weekend, but we'll have the Jemere Gibbs rollover. Maybe like right here, there'll be like a little Jemere Gibbs. I'd rather the piggy bank every time the money goes. A piggy bank with Jemere Gibbs is face on it. Like as long as that's like, I think that's the play. All right, we'll let the production figure it out. We'll play the rollover. Let's see what that looks like. There's a fun way to end it. Have some fun with us this year. We want to make some money. We also want to have some fun with it and hopefully you guys are getting some stuff out of it. So, make sure you're subscribed to betting pros. Make sure you guys are here next week and we will talk to you with all of the early lines and everything else right here on betting pros for Andrew Erickson. I'm Chris Wells. Good luck. Go into the money and we'll talk to you next time. @BettingProsNFL. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/BettingPros. Hey, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama. Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Listen to the NFL Fantasy football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Bobby Bones. 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