NFL WEEK 1 BETS: Patriots-Seahawks, 49ers-Rams, Packers-Vikings, Bears-Panthers, Cowboys-Giants

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I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning late-round podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the late-round fantasy football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the Solid Verbal College football show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubinstein. Every week, we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are gonna ignite your group chat. And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again. Listen to the Solid Verbal College football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it. The league's newest podcast. The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football. Breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and here from your favorite players to join me. And it all starcasts of experts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episode to the NFL Report, Monday through Friday, all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the volume podcast network this is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, I'm joined as always. I'm my BFF, my co-host, my companion, my compatriot, professional batter, Simon, Hunter, and oh, Simon! Shall we meet in my good friend? Brother, listen. Like, this is going to sound way more sentimental than I like to be. I can't believe I get to do this show with you, with Matt Mitchell, again, for another season. We're getting NFL football on Wednesday, on Thursday, on Sunday, on Monday. We got a discord that gets bigger every day and is pop in, join the discord. Go to readthenumber.com. You can pre-order my book, get an invite to the discord. And Simon, in my fridge, later tonight, I will indulge with a piece of homemade key lime pie that friends made when they came over last night for Labor Day. It's good to be back. It's a long off season, right? The game's end. You get into draft mode. The draft comes and goes. And then the week one lines come out. And that's what you talk about for three months. So I always joke. It's a season in itself week one, right? There's so much randomness. So much madness. It's all irrelevant at the end of the day, right? I think everyone's favorite line from last year is the Patriots lost to the Raiders on week one. Patriots went on diving in incredible season. Both Raiders totally fell apart. So it's just, we try not to overreact. But it's hard not to, right? You've built up these games for three months. You want to stick to the teams you love. So I love it. I can't wait to dive into it. It's just so much anticipation, so much build up. And at the end of the day, we're just trying to avoid it on five. We're trying to go three and two here. People, that's me, Chad's goal. You might get sick if you're in it. But it really is so hard to go 60% for the season. That's the goal every week, three and two, Chad. So hoping for five and no feeling pretty good. Not going to lie. Love a lot of the lines this week. So you're like excited to dive into it. All right, let's get after it. This is our Tuesday NFL week one show. Today you'll hear our Chad's choice. Our Simon says we're going to review the entire slate 16 games starting tomorrow all the way through Monday. 12 of those 16 spreads are sitting at three and a half or less. So that'll be interesting. There's a couple of games in here, Simon, that I'm super pumped to get your take on because I'm feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good. The action starts Wednesday night. Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. Let's get it rolling. Don't forget. You can get the shows Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe and like the video. You can also follow us on Insta Tiktok X. Subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods Spotify. Join the Discord pre-order at readthenumber.com. Get an invite to join the Discord. Simon, the Wednesday night game, 820 PM Eastern NBC, New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks are currently three and a half point favorites. And this game has come down for context. It's actually the only game we have recent context for. And we both made multiple ladder bets on the Seahawks to win by significantly more than the four and a half point spread. The line is three and a half. Is this historical letdown? Is it AJ Brown? Is it Seattle having significant depth issues? In the secondary, they lost a lot of their secondary players to free agency and trades. And a lot of the guys they brought in to replace them are all injured. They won't be playing in week one. The tricky game for me, tricky game. I like, well, I want to get your take on the line move and why you think it's three and a half and not four and a half. Yeah, really interesting line movement. For me, this was a game right when the lines came out. I was like, all right, great. I'll just hammer this once again. It's, I know a lot has changed. Obviously it's a new year. You're catching two team to toy different points. I feel like you're going to hear at Nazo in the next 24 hours chat about cover six. You know what cover six is? Yeah. It's a type of defense. And that is what every pro everyone you talk to in the football world has talked about for the last five, six months about Drake May and the Patriots. The Sean McDermott ran a cover six in the bills game. It worked against May and you saw every team run that exact scheme to the entire playoff run. So we're in a, we're in a weird spot where is AJ Brown the breaker of the cover six? Or was that just a fluky thing where it was simply offensive line and Drake May will be unfazed by seeing the cover six yet all off season to work on it? It's, it's going to be a really unique game. I think the pros are coming in taking a stance, right? A couple of these books have moved to three. And that's, that's a pretty big deal, right? If, if polymarket here is going to three and they're following everyone else, it's like I've got to predict their markets is following everyone else. It's, it's a big deal. So is it a head fake? So I want people to be careful about here because that is another thing where pros do this, right? They're going to move markets to get a better number, take larger positions. I am dug in pretty heavy. I'm not going to lie chatting to see y'all. I've bet this, like I said for the last four months, I'll hit people with all the stats and the trends. But I really do think it's really going to come down to Drake May and AJ, right? They're going to have their number one corner on AJ. Can AJ win those matchups on their red zone to get those touchdowns? Because I think CLX, even with a new offensive coordinator, I think they're going to get theirs. I already talked to you about that. I think the Patriots defense was good. They're overrated a little bit by the public. And I don't think I love to, they keep showing clips in the Super Bowl of how good the Patriots defense was. Even they got blown out, which is fair. They didn't give a little bit of touchdowns. They gave a lot of fuel goals. But Sam Dorondo, I'm openly admitted all of his passes were behind. He was off that. It was more on him than anything else. First pass was almost picked. Yeah, behind. If you just watch any of the footage is always behind the guys. So looking at this matchup, I really was like, all right, give me a reason to get on the Patriots. And then shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams, had just a bunch of amazing trends about the Super Bowl losing team. And what happens in week one? So the first one he put out there was just off the top since 2000 teams that lose the Super Bowl week one. Six and 20 against the spread since. He got. Let's just break it down teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl. So Patriots lost by 16 points in the Super Bowl. They won't point. They're traded by 19 points, those teams in week one. I remember. Two and that was a bet we lost. Yeah. Two and 10, the following season in the week one against the spread. So the Patriots just have a lot of history working against them where. It just shows these teams. tend to come out flat. And on the flip side, the teams that won the Super Bowl tend to do really well in the opening week and the CLX themselves since 2021, 33 and seven at home, straight out. So that's what I got. If you are scared off by the three and a half, there's three's out there now. You're basically betting them to win or push this game, right? How many times is it laying on two? Of course it's not laying on two. But yeah, it's just, the fact that the number is the pros have moved this to three, I bet even more. So maybe I'm gonna have some pie in my face here, but I'm just gonna trust this whole cover six situation where it's like, you go back and watch and drink, did have a tough time passing against it. It was noticeable. And we've seen this CLX team, they just seem so well-coached, so put together. It just feels like they'll be the team that's prepared and ready. They had no offseason drama. The Patriots had a ton of offseason drama. So looking for them, they got the guns out, you'll done. But yeah, if we were able to this, obviously, I would debate with you about putting this in the contest. I don't love it 'cause it's a Wednesday night game. It's the first game of the year. And you could say we're gonna bet number three and a half 'cause there's three's out there, but this just feels like another game where you're really gonna need to see Drake may take that truly next step to cover this number. - I think we're gonna have a lot of options for the contest. - I mean, I don't love favorites. So for me, I actually love it. It's eight jumps out. - So let's talk about an underdog then, because the Rams and the Niners have gone down to Melbourne. - Better fill the icebox, then fire up the Barbie. 'Cause Aussies like to make you feel at home. - This game's on Netflix on Thursday night. And look, we try to be careful when we talk about historical stats with small sample sizes, but this one is relevant because Kyle Shanahan is 11 or eight overall against the spread against Sean McVeigh. He is nine and three as an underdog. He is one seven of those games outright. I think there is so much hype on the Rams. I think we're getting the hook because people just can't believe how good the Rams are gonna be. But you know I hate betting against Kyle Shanahan. He's proven it against this Rams team. Maybe I'm a sucker here, but how are the Niners not the right side getting the hook in a neutral field game when they got both the coming back, they probably got Kittle coming back. We know they might be as healthy as they're gonna be offensively. Aren't we taking the Niners here? - Yeah, if you're welcome back, people had listened to the offseason or if you're new to this show, but this is what me and Kyle would be doing all season. We're gonna always find a reason, make up a reason our mind to fade the Rams. So this was decided months ago. As soon as the number was hung, it was gonna be a no-brainer, but the public was gonna hammer this number here. Cannot believe it's now four or four and a half. That's one of the more telling things to this line that it has not shifted up like I thought it would 'cause it's just gonna be so much public love for this team, but maybe it's the flight. That's spooked everyone, right? Them traveling the day before and you know, everyone in the world's gonna be talking about that, right? What is the right move to travel the day before? To go the week before, get acclimated. I hear the Rams excuse, they're treating it like they did England. This is a total different beast in my opinion. I don't think they realize this is totally different than going to Europe from the West Coast, going down to Australia. So we'll see, their plan is they basically get in Chad. They claim they're gonna trust that, but I think they're gonna crash because that flight's so insane and such a toll on your body. And then they'll wake up and they're gonna be up for 13 straight hours until their game kicks off. And I don't know how that's gonna affect this team that's playing at 10 a.m. Australian time, but yeah, it's a four year anniversary healthy in week one. I know the Rams are healthy too, but it's like, you can't talk me off a divisional game with them catching over the hook in an international game, and they've been there for the week as well. It's like, there's so many little things we love about it. Historically, international games, we always talk about, if you just blindly have bet the favorites against the spread and the money line, you are up. And to me, I'm taking a different approach from this 'cause this is not the same old Europe or heading down to Brazil. - This isn't, this isn't Jacksonville. - I've thrown out his trends, yeah. - This isn't Jacksonville playing in London against the Vikings. It's like, they've faced undergraduates. That's what people have asked about. McVase, three, known as career, straight up and against the spread in international games. So I've had a people ask about those trends, and it's like, I don't think you can really back that stuff. It's so different. So, yeah, the Rams can see it now. Them losing in this game, everyone panicking, going crazy. Did we overrate this team? And it's just like, it's a nightmare scenario. So, can we get blown out back in the 49ers year? Yeah, this Rams thing we've talked about. They're an absolute juggernaut in every sense, but this is where you want to catch them, right? Right here, early in the season, I think it's going to be a little weird for them getting into what they are going to be defensively. Right, they have so many new pieces. - Yeah, yeah. - Very pretty, pretty is a good pass or stripling, Mike Evans, Dabo. They're all healthy right now. McAfry apparently is healthy, so getcha. We won't think too much about this game. We'll keep them moving. We'll take three and a half on the plus side. All right, good, because the next game is so gross. So gross, I am so excited to make it one of our five favorite picks of the week. It's, you're going to have to really push me here. New York Jets at Tennessee Titans. This number's down, it was two and a half. Now it's one and a half. Money coming in on the Jets, moving that number. And when I was doing my research yesterday and putting together the script, I went through everything and I'm like, oh my god. And it was a two and a half. So the money's been moving in at the last 24 hours. I think I love the Jets. And let me sort of lay it out for you, okay? And this is one of the games, you know, in the Discord, we are voting on games that I am going to bet on with my own money and then we will be donating anything we win plus a floor of $5,000 to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. You get to vote on the picks, I will make the bets. Pre-order at readthenumber.com, you'll get the invite to join the Discord. This will be one of the bets that we might, that we're going to vote on in the Discord. Cam Ward has had a very ugly preseason. The Titan's offensive line is leaky. One of his big issues last year was allowing pressure to become stacks. That is an indicator of something that players do not necessarily grow out of quickly. And I think the Jets defense can actually be pretty good against the run, which might be the best offence that Titans have to Vandray, Sweat, David, Onumata, fifth and eighth out of 127 defensive lineman against the run per PFF. The wild car Simon, obviously as Gino, and we talked about this when we talked about the Jets and the preseason. If the issues in Vegas were because he just can't process anymore, then the whole season is screwed. This bet is cooked. But because his whole line was terrible and his receivers couldn't get any separation, well, his whole line is much better with the Jets. And he's got Garrett Wilson, who can get separation, who we love at a 45 to one long shot to lead the league in receiving yards. I get why the line is moving. Are you with me? Are you with me on the New York Jets? Imagine having a full slate of games, people. And you waste even a minute of your time doing any research on this game. Shit, you are banned from taking, you're talking any Teddy sneaking. So if you're right about the Jets, and then next week the Jets, you would ever bet you'd do again against Tennessee to hit again. I will let you start putting that in on the show and we can start talking Tennessee game. But no, my friend, I'll be the adult in the room. You are banned from talking Tennessee and giving out facts on Tennessee. (laughing) - Is this because of our whole history? - Yeah, I'll take the Jets with you, Shera, but this game is totally relevant to the show and what we're going to do this upcoming season. We're just, maybe you've got to read on Tennessee, but yes, everyone in the world saw that came where to look bad, Tennessee looked bad. The Jets, yes, we get it. Just, let's keep it moving. No more time wasted on this game. - But what are you saying? What, like, what are you saying that you're on the Jets? Like, I'm not saying-- - I'm not, I don't have the penny invested in this game. I get why people are bad-knit. It's like, I'm not investing any money in Tennessee talking games. So I can see if I can get a read on this. - Oh, so this is a fear. This is a fear of what's happened in the past two seasons where, like, two seasons ago. - It's logical. I told you, last year, we're not been on them anymore. That was your one job. And you literally two weeks later, had us put Tennessee in the contest. You're not an adult. You failed at your one job. So I don't want to hear it about them being a technician. - I love it when the 30-something-year-old professional better tells me I'm not an adult. It's the fucking best. All right, then can I say it on this one? Tampa Bay. bucket nears at Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals are favored by three and a half right now. A healthy, angry, motivated Baker Mayfield, a top five offensive line in the box against a depleted edge rushing unit with the Bengals. I know we like the Bengals to make a run this season, but Joe Burrow went healthy, historically slow starter, three and nine and weeks one and two when he's played. Simon, give me the Tampa Bay bucket nears in the hook. Yeah, we love this one a couple of months ago. It's another number that had touched for when a meco-abucco is patachi had turftone can miss his game, but he's back at practice running around and seems like a meco-abucco being this game. So him, Guy, when fully healthy, offensive line, we've talked about their top five offensive line in the bucket nears. It's going to be a great test for this Bengals defense and see if they've corrected their woes up front and they can stop the run. I mean, even their pass, everything was just bad. Bengals, they were horrible. So great test for them out the gate. I think in his career with the Browns, he'd never lost to Cincinnati. So Baker, Baker had always had done well against Cincinnati and played well when he went to Cincinnati. So it's like, I don't think he'll be phased at all, either by the fact that it's like, you know, a really hostile environment and how tired those fans are, but it's like, you know, Baker thrives on that stuff. Like we, we've all saw the clip. Remember that guy in Seattle last year, Kerson not telling me he's nothing. He's a home and then he beats Seattle and he doesn't even celebrate with the team. He runs over to find the guy in the stands to curse him out. And it's like, that's Baker, just like total psychopath. That's what we love him. So they might lose this game. Joe Burrow might have a moment, but I feel like we'll always be in it. And for down 10, we always talk about Baker. Yeah, he gets us as back doors and we love him when we get the hook. So I think the end of the year, seven or eight straight, no covers. So my God, as he do, and as this team do a fully healthy Baker, fully author bucks, we're getting the hook on the hype of the Bengals, right? This should probably should be three, two and a half pretty evenly matched team, especially for looking at just a model. So yeah, we're getting a free point here. We'll take it. Simon, I forgot to mention. This game 10th Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half, that's going to be Chad's choice this week. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? We can't run from all we are. Sharp news can just see it. You know what I mean? There we go. There you're talking, my ladies. Welcome back, Chad. No, you're talking jets. What were we? What happened? Listen, you were lost. I love the jets. And by the way, the jets money line is a hundred percent going in the discord and we're going to vote on that. There's going to be a couple ugly things to vote on. But I do love the box here like that. To me, as soon as you started blasting the jets, I knew that the box were going to be Chad's choice. Next up, Chicago at Carolina, Chicago short road favorites. Right now, Simon would say you. Give me the Carolina Panthers. Simon says I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon says Simon says presented by Polymarket Carolina plus three and a half currently trading at 55 percent at Polymarket. I got to tell you, I'm totally with you. I got some thoughts on it. I got some stats to back it up. But I want to hear your logic here. Yeah, thank you. Probably mark for the amazing trade number. I think people are going to come in pretty heavy on the bear side just because it is a darling of last year. They're one of the better teams. People are going to love them again this year, right? We all expect their offense to be a top five, top three potentially offense of Caleb Williams takes our next step. But what is the dirty little secret about Caleb Williams? He struggles against the sky's defences. And that has always been something about him that he struggled with about. The teams that show him will look pre-snap when they go into something else. A lot of teams pick it back before Brian Flores did against him. You saw that on the stretch last year where once the games kind of broke down, especially in the fourth quarter, that's when Caleb did so well, right? But early in the game, that's when he struggled. That's when obviously teams have their packages worked in. And looking at this matchup, Carolina, they were 31st in teams that had basically nothing going on before the snap. But they were second in the sky's defense. So that means before the snap, I mean, I like to do anything with their defense to always switch his up, excuse the ball of snap. So we've seen Caleb struggle with that, but it's really comes down to the number. It's too big of a number for a Chicago team to go down into that humid, you know, could be thunderstorms type of day down at Carolina and just beat up on a Panther's team that I still don't think is as bad as the public thinks. I know they got lucky last year. They had it up. I was a losing record in one their division. These things do happen, but it's also a team that did cover a lot and Bryce Young here early in his career at home as a home underdog, 14 and six against the spread. He's shining these moments. David Canal says head coach. He's 11 of five as a dog in his career. So it's just what they've been used to. They're good at it. We fade them in their favorites. Carolina, they're terrible as favorites, but as a dog, especially over the hook number, it's great. It's great play. Yeah, you hit you hit all my points. The Bears defense is terrible. I think that's an issue. I think the fact that's going to be 85 to 90 degrees with 75% humidity in Charlotte and I think that's an issue in a couple places in the southeast this week for teams. That's going to be an issue for the Bears. It'll be an issue for Carolina too, but I think their defense is just a little bit better and that'll a little more use to that kind of weather right now. But to me, this is about Bryce Young. And you just nailed it. We've seen Bryce Young in the past two seasons, 17 and nine against the spread as an underdog. He's only been in favorite once. So he's almost always an underdog. Eleven outright wins. And like not to trigger anyone. If we did, if you're going to go, if we did top 10 quarterbacks, only based on QBs as underdogs. You'd have to be on the list right behind Drake May and probably ahead of Jaylen Hertz Simon. We're going to have to back Bryce Young in this situation. Let's do it. I listen, folks. Football is back. And you need to change the way you invest in the NFL this season. It's finally time to ditch your old sports books. Apps because Polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states. And those old sports books that are relic of the past on Polymarket, you can trade on all things NFL from the Sunday slate to who wins working the year to who performs the halftime show. 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Hop water is crisp, sparkling hop water made with a blend of Citra, Amarillo, Mosaic, and Azacahops for that bright, citrusy, hop-forward flavor without the alcohol. But hop water brings more than great taste. Each can is infused with functional ingredients plus 120% of your daily vitamin C. And with zero alcohol, zero sugar, zero carbs, and zero calories, it's an easy choice. Whether you're cutting back on alcohol or just looking for a different way to unwind, crack one after work. Bring a few to the barbecue or keep the fridge stocked for whenever you want that refreshing hop hit. Find your flavor and order today at hopwater.com, H-O-P-W-T-R dot com. Hop water. All the hops. None of a headache. You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room groans because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. We've got data-driven analysis, historical trends, and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft. All season long, we have our 15 transactions, 10 trends, sleepers, and the mail back. Data-driven, quick hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Britt Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score, that's exactly why we created NFL Pro. Stay Harks! Every week we use exclusive. exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box court to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts. We use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey everyone, I'm Mikey M and I'm Trevor Sikama and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Fantasy season is upon us, are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. Three updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position. And matchups, you can exploit to destroy your leaguemates. You know, we're talking sleepers, breakout stars, and the guys you cannot afford to bench. From rookies on the rise, the long time star still at it, we cover it all. Whether you're a first time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Really analysis, hot takes, and unique insider knowledge, all in one place. Does fantasy dominance sound appealing to you? Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the IHAR radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. So having the next game we got to talk about Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, lines move from seven and a half to eight and a half. I want to remind you of something Simon. The Browns defense on the road the past two seasons, and I'll get to the bigger point. 2024 with the best player in the NFL, it allowed 27.7 points per game. 2025 with the best player in the NFL, it allowed 27 points per game. So now we get a new coordinator, no miles Garrett, we still like the defense, but it's going to be 90 degrees in Jacksonville, with 75% humidity, like this is 100% going in the discord as a money line vote to bet on the Jags, goal is to win money for charity, not blow through my bankroll in the first week. But how do I not like the Jags as big favorites here against a Dishon Watson led defense that is going to be playing in 90 degree heat and has everything brand new. I know it's square, it's a big number, but I'm leaning into Liam Cone. Yeah, but I look at this line, I think, who is anyone taking this team that Browns like you said to win this game out right now? And it feels like between them, Arizona and the Saints, people are probably taking the Saints or Arizona, maybe before those money lines, maybe just the Saints, but no one's really talking Browns, they're left for dead here, like this number, like you said, on from seven and a half, all the update and a half, it's honestly a game I really loved, but you're right. Like the weather, it might work against what I'm thinking here, but it's also like, man, the Jags, they're so overrated, like they really are, they had so many things bounce their way. And it might be terrible, like honestly, like I break down the film and I really go through these guys and over it. It's like, this might be a really bad offensive line. And yes, I know great OC with all those weapons around them in Trevor Lawrence. It's like they can kind of mitigate that, but if I didn't have so many questions about the Browns, new coaching staff, or because it's not Jim Schwartz running that defense, that would be also a difference, they have dogs, like this defense is good. We've talked how well they've drafted, and the flip side the Jags have not drafted well. So it's like, this game just seems prime for an upset in the ruin of a bunch of people survival pool picks. So it's one I'm betting the Browns, I've taken the Browns, especially, I mean, we even talked about teasers, but you can take this up to 14 and a half on the Browns right now. Like the fact that it is updating a half, the books are begging you for some Browns and money, they're just getting pounded right now with the Jags one, so the splits obviously, most books you see will be about 75% of the bets, 75% of the money, it's on the Jaguar. So yeah, very big public, public, you know, favorite and, you know, 10 years ago, it's sort of been 10 and a half. We would have got a great double digit dog and a good number, but the books just don't get us up there anymore. So the fact that this is 8 and a half is very telling about how much respect the public has and the books have for the Jaguars right now, but I have to fade it, it just feels like it's so much bit off last season, where if Watson does come in and plays well in Munkin's All Funds, they got the guys, I'm telling you, Jeff, you're going to be shocked. This Browns team, if Watson could put together not as bad as people perceive, and another big question mark, once again, the Browns, I don't know the whole offensive line, it's all new pieces there. So it's not what I'm going to force us into or taking our contest or anything like that, just because I don't know, I don't have enough info on this Browns team, but I'm happy to bet. I'm excited for you to bet the Jags money line because you think it's a safe bet. Well, look, the Browns, we talked about this during the off season. Everyone is always saying if to Sean Watson, if to Sean Watson, that is evidence of things unseen to be depending on if to Sean Watson. We all agree, they've been great at drafting really good defensive players the past couple of years, and really good offensive players the past couple of years, but it doesn't matter if to Sean Watson is going to be your quarterback, and we can all hope and pray that, oh my God, this could be the savior for this team, but he's just not going to be. It's a terrible quarterback with a suspect offensive line playing in really challenging weather against a really good offense. I'm not saying obviously we're not going to put either of them in the contest, but I can't buy the Browns here. Yeah, it's just, it's a fun game where if he does win this, it will mess with the Browns plans because everyone you talk to the Browns playing on him losing this game, going to the Bucks game the next week losing at the Bucks, and then they can come home and start to door against Carolina. If he splits, if he goes one on one against two playoff teams from last year, you ain't seen to Sean Watson, so I don't know. I feel like this is for his life right now, like he has to know this is it. So yeah, fishy, fishy game, this one feels like to me. At Lanette Pittsburgh, three and a half Steelers at home. There are teams in Pro Football, and then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers. Up from three, and our Rogers is at his most healthy, the Falcons have two against the past rush that includes three guys in the top 20th percent dial of past rushers last year according to PFF when healthy, which they are right now, TJ White, Alex, Hayes, Smith, Nick Herbig, tackles in Ageless, Cam Hayward, and Keanu Benton, also top 20 of their positions in past rush. Once finally improved their past rush last year, with first round picks, Jelanne Walker and James Pierce, Walker is out with a tornado ACL. Pierce is suspended the first eight games for domestic violence. So I can see why the number moved up, and this might be the healthiest there in Rogers is all season. Yeah, don't, don't buy the Jagsman line, bet this money line. Bet the Steelers money line. By the way, this isn't safe. This is going in there too. Yeah, I would do, this is, this is way safer in my mind, because you try to tell yourself a story of how the Atlantic can get there, and yeah, Pittsburgh total meltdown Rogers has a horrible day. Mike McCarthy comes in and the offense doesn't look right, and all these things, but it's like you have to be lying yourself to has never shown you anything this year, or I should say preseason that shows that he can run a functioning offense, and like you said, the defense is in shambles in many ways for Atlanta, so if Pittsburgh can't steamroll a team in this game, one can they like, come on, man, this feels like the spot. So if people can tell, I've invested in this money line, which I hope it was going to stay at three unfortunately, it's moved to three and a half, it's so it's like, I don't know, are me and you really going to be making this one of our favorite bets for this week, probably not, because we don't love that, taking that hook there because we've seen a time and time again, like teams just get back to work in week one, teams take the foot off the gas, and that's how these books there, they hung these lines and let the public in the professional side, and it's the money right now is lined up on both sides onto this, see, there's this open at two and a half now, it's about three and a half, so yeah, I like to see this, I think we're in a green, it's like, this is a good veteran team, they're all in the best shape, they'll be all season, it's week one, so Atlanta Yeah. Can they shock some people this season? Yeah, maybe, but it had to start here on week one. Like they would have really have to win this game instead of tone for this season because it feels like if they just get steamroll here, that sets the tone for the rest of the season where it's like, you know, it was all fantasy players, right? It was all pits, Drake London and Bijon Robbins and the rest of the team is just trash. And that that would be the fury, neither Atlanta Falcons fan that wants to seem to be good. If not, you want a quarterback, I think there's a good tone. So we expect this to really lay it to this Falcons team. I don't know that we can completely dismiss it from our final five. I think it'll be tricky. You're like, it's just a much better team. And again, we do this every year. We talk ourselves out of these contest plays and our final five plays because of these hooks. I think we can agree. It happens less often than we think. We're just so super sensitive to it because when it does happen, it hurts so much because one time is actually having a huge impact on that three and two opportunity every week. I agree. New Orleans at Detroit. Detroit, basically minus seven. If you're looking at Polymarket, it's a six and a half or seven and a half. You mentioned to the Saints, I'll be honest. I don't have a strong feel for this game. I want to love the Saints because I love what they did last year. I love the run we had with Tyler Schuck and the way he was making the run up their ranks for offensive rookie of the year. But look, I got huge concerns about the lion's offensive line. And I kind of do believe they've missed their window. So I'm in my head on this one. I don't have it. I don't have an opinion. Yeah, this tough is this. Can the Saints exploit all those weaknesses you talked about this lion's team? Potentially, and we don't know yet what the offense is going to look like with this lion's team, right? They got a new OC in there. I mean, so many of these teams have new OCs. It really is crazy. I have new OCs this season. So it's another matchup where it's like, you know, it means you are doing our Sunday night show and the lions win 41 to 14. You would not be shocked. Honestly, like when they get it going with that offense, there are an absolute juggernaut. Can they get stops defensively? So yeah, it's another game of the number feels right. The book's on a good number. If you want to tease it, like I already talked about Browns, that's a fun teaser one. This is another fun teaser one. So yeah, I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm happy to avoid this one with you because it's like I don't have a great read on it. And the Saints could easily backdoor a big number like this. Like we saw last year when Chuck has a go and they have a good offense. But was that all smoking mirrors? Is the book out on him? Because they had team in a whole offseason prepare for 27 year old Chuck here. It's it's debatable, invested a lot into this kid at this point. So just looking at the line, six and a half of polymarket, if you can shop and get that number, okay, take the lines. But if it's seven and all your, all your options of betting, I'd pass on this one or tease it. Baltimore minus three and a half at Indy. So I think it's fair to say. And this was pretty clear when we did our show on futures last week. We kind of fall in love with the Ravens, right? They are they are part of our Super Bowl exact around Robin. We bet Jesse Jessie Menter at 10 to 1 for coach of the year. But first year head coach on the road against the coach, we really do like in Shane Steigen. The challenge is how much do we believe in Daniel Jones recovery? Alec Pierce, their top receiver has been injured for much of preseason. What's interesting to me is that this line has come down like, oh, you know, lines are posted in May. It was at four and a half. It's at three and a half. I'm a little surprised giving everything you and I've heard about the Ravens and the love professionals are developing for the Ravens that it hasn't gone back up. But it's kind of just stayed where it is not a hard time betting. I don't want to bet on the Colts here, but I'm having a hard time betting on the Ravens. Yeah, it's the battle of Jim Erse and the middle of the night, even with this team and the Mayflower Trucks, right? That's right. A lot of history between these two teams. I used to just blindly bet Lamar any time he was on turf. And I looked at it. It's been a good bet. He's like well above 500, taking him when he plays on fast, fast turf. It's like, okay, it makes sense. He's a running quarterback. We have no idea anything about this Ravens team. Declan Doyle, the 31 year old OC. Like I always tell you, he's going to be either the guru, gets his team to win this division, gets them far in the playoffs, potentially, it's your role. Teams will be lined up at the front door to pay him a ton of money to make him their new head coach. Like he is being hyped up. He's been the next Shaw McVey. Mentor we've already talked about. We think this guy might be the next McDonnell. Like the next great coach, defensive mind tough, tough task going on the road in your first game. Let him get to Colts team that we saw last year when they were healthy and it was all working. They're the highest scoring offense in all four. So, you know, do you want to take all those unknowns with a favorite on the road there? Yeah. So it's like, I can't do it. Like if I had to pick it, if I have to make a pick for this game, I will take the Ravens, but I don't feel good about it. It's like not something I want to be doing by just I still have more questions about Daniel Jones coming off physically live action. More so than I do have one more in a new offense. Like all more, he can improvise. He can figure it out. Colts sneaky good defensive line. Really good secondary, I think this year. So I'll be interested in this. The apparently the Ravens want to be more past, you know, be a good test for them offensive lane and safe flowers can go against the secondary of this Colts team. So great game to watch. Happy not to have too much money invested in it. Simon, you and I are remarkably aligned. Right now, I'm very excited to see how it all falls apart in the crucible of Sunday morning when lines are moving and we're in chaos and we got final decisions to make and we know that the stakes are huge. Where are we going to crater? Are we going to end up putting the Colts in? Are we going to end up putting the Jetson? Will we have Buffalo minus one and a half at Houston or Houston plus one and a half hosting Buffalo? This game had all the makings of a trap. In years past, the Buffalo bills would see a game like this kind of lay down, not play well and get smacked, but these bills are not those bills. Somebody might say they're our bills. To me, the line of demarcation error is, who do we really believe in more to improve? CJ Stroud or the bills defense? We know the bills offense is elite. We know the Texans defense is elite, so it really comes down to those two things. To me, game at first, I thought it was going to be an easy bet. Yeah. Really did on Houston. It just felt like, I thought it was going to be no brain around Houston. Honestly, because you're getting a great defense, same ed coach, same 11 starters, the question will always be that defense of front, offensive line for this Houston team. They are starting all over, so can bills exploit that, this whole brand new bill defense? Potentially, but this is Joe Brady's first time as a head coach on the road. Josh Allen is career, no team has been better against him than Houston. They've always had his number going back to the show on Watson days. So you're looking at a match up here that if it wasn't Josh Allen, I mean, you would be hammering this. It's the fear factor of that. And CJ Stroud, sneaky bad start the season. First career, his career first three weeks, my first three years, weeks one and two, oh and six against the subreddiness career. He has never covered a game. So if that's that smokes you off, guess what? Another great teaser game. What a gift we're getting from all these different places we can bet right now because it's it's seven and a half. Like you're getting Houston plus seven and a half at home with that defense. I don't care how bad CJ is. This is going to be an ugly grinded out type of game or Houston. If they could figure it offensively, they could roll because the bills just have so many new pieces. Like I think they're going to be really good this year. I think they're going to win their division. It's going to take a little bit. I really do think that it's it's just so many new faces defensively. And that's we talked about time early in the year. That's the advantage having a defense that knows what they're doing. Same, same scheme, same head coach or defensive coordinator. That's an advantage, right? The offense was always take a month really to get their, get their bearings here. So can, can we get this in Sunday morning? I don't know, but I, I have bet this one I have invested, but I really have invested the most in the Houston and teasers. I think you're going to be, I think it's going to be harder for us to find five than you think. Right now, we're looking at the bucks, the panthers, maybe the Steelers, maybe the Texans, but we're leaving a lot on the floor here. We're going to go to the late afternoon games Miami at Las Vegas, Las Vegas, a three and a half point favorite. Look, we've said it many, many times during the off season, we're taking the dolphins here a plus three and a half. Their season win total will go up. We'll take the under because they may not win again this season, the Raiders interior O line to not have anyone in the top 40th percentile of past of interior D line to not have anyone in the top 40th percentile a pass rush. Two of their defensive backs ranked in the bottom 15, according to PFF. We know Miami's defense is just as bad. This is the corner TV game of the week, but I think we're aligned and we're on Miami here. Yeah, this one's tricky. Our survivor fans, if you have a contest that locks up today because there's a game on Wednesday or tomorrow, I should say. This is a sneaky team in the Raiders for survivor pools. Like this team, Pittsburgh, everyone's going to go chargers. That's the overloading team for survivor, but the Raiders here, if you look at their CS schedule and their season, this is might be as good as it gets, right? They're playing potentially the worst team in football at home with a veteran quarterback, right? It's like you expect hurt in this offense to be able to move the ball and play well. We're playing the numbers and the trends here, Chad. First year, first year had coaches, which these both these guys are when they meet each other in week one, favorites, two and six against the spread. So it doesn't, doesn't shock anybody, right? The dogs tend to win here and cover because it tends to be a close game because it, like we said, it's two teams that are so unsure about themselves. Yeah, dozens. I mean, it's, it's a long career. So this is nice, you know, going back to 2013 indoors in his career, 36, 45 against the spread. So it's like, you don't have some huge advantage on Kirk indoors in his career. There's no, there's nothing I can take away from the Raiders. I'm trying to get people in survivor to take them because it's, you're, you're playing the game in survivor, but I think Chad nailed it as betters. We never had a choice. So it was always going to be Miami. It's, it's too big of a number for this Raiders team. And can Raiders roll? Yes, they have way more talent, way more talent across the board offensively and defensively, but that's, that's a big number for week one on a Raiders team that's, you know, really bad. They're just a really bad team of the first year at Coach. So I, I think we're in unison here about taking this one. It's, it's another game that I'm happy for us not to put our cut this. I can sweat it out in survivor pool, not have to worry about getting the dolphins to cover a three and a half number. Jets are going in this contest. You know the feeling, you make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room grounds because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in prime time. We've got data driven analysis, historical trends and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. 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And this is a really big number. So I can see why it went down. But I don't have a strong opinion on this one. Yeah, they're beloved vice-people survivor pool because Chargers have a hard season, right? A hard schedule this year. And I think this week it's an easy game and the next week they had an easy game. It's the Raiders and then it's pretty a brutal schedule. Hardball also coachy career between the 49ers and the Chargers. He's never lost week one. He's six and only his career straight up. So, you know, you can't say the guy doesn't have his teams ready for the opening game the year every year he does. So you're worried about the Chargers laying down and not being ready for this game. It's literally never happened this may as career. And this is probably the easiest matchup he's ever had spread wise. But it sucks the number moved because that's why the pros are bending. This number was 10, 10 and a half. Pros know this stat since 2003. Double digits favorites 14 and 7 against the spread. You just you blindly bet it this week one only. That's a week one only stat. So I don't think we've had a week one double digit since like 2019, 2018. I know the Eagles were a double digit failure against the commanders that long ago. And that's that's the last double digit failure we have for week one. So it's rare. The pros came and they bet it down because of those trends. Those numbers so unfortunately there's there's no real. You said double digit. You said double digit favorite dogs dogs dogs dogs. Yeah, yeah. So it's just you don't want to be betting the Chargers. Yes, you can play him in teasers and money line whatever that. But big spreads like this week one. It's just when you hear this type of trend, you want to just avoid these big favorites week one. It's just such a wonky week. So that's why you played Chargers that feels like the safest pick for your survivor pool. Totally agree. We'll talk obviously more about making our own pick on Thursday. But yeah, it's it's all about game through. Obviously, when I'm talking Raiders. Simon, let me ask you a question. The Philadelphia Eagles are four and a half point favorites at home against the Washington commanders. Answer me this. Do you know why the number isn't five? It depends on book you're at. It's five and a half at a lot of books. No, it's because Jaden Daniels owns the number five. But on foam. Poor guy, his mom ruined his career. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We'll be here all season. Look, we love the Eagles defense. We hate the commanders defense. There's not a single Washington player on defense who graded as above average or better in their PFF grade. One of us has immense respect and appreciation for Jalen Hertz. One of us loves him. Jaden Daniels return with a new offensive coordinator and his best offensive weapon in Terry McClaren is 31 years old. So I can see why the number has moved from 4 1/2 to 5 1/2. Yesterday, it wasn't 4 1/2. It wasn't 5 1/2. It was 4 1/2. But my question to you is, is that public money just coming in because they're all sort of paying attention now this week, or is that professionals finally taking a stand on the Eagles because that number fell too low? Yeah, the pros have come in. This touches six other pros will come back on the other side, right? At some point, you have to buy back. But commanders are sneakily one of the worst teams in all football. The tonsill injury, I know we didn't talk a lot about it, but that completely shifted my view of them and putting them behind the giants, where they went from having the 25th or 26th, I think, rated offensive line to having the 31st now. They are statistically one of the worst offensive lines coming to the season with a fragile quarterback that didn't put weight on, this body looks the exact same. He still looks as fragile as he did when he took those injuries last year. Everyone's talking, was that rookie year just a fluke look? Because he also got hurt that year, too. Like, he played through injuries to win that rookie of the year and had an incredible playoff run. So can Hertz exploit this defense? That's the question here, because the Eagles aren't a new offensive a lot of these teams. That's why if this was the same old offense, they'd been comfortable and he looked good in. I'd be all over this Eagles team. Because match-up wise, this is the dream scenario. There are number one corner who's already pretty bad for Washington. He's missing this game. And there are backups are basically all graded outside the top 50, top 50 of corner backs. Like, they don't have an actual starter on this group. That's a true number one that can take away the amount they smith. So Jalen Hertz always gets questioned about his deep ball passing since 2023. Quarterbacks, the throw of the ball that traveled more than 20 yards in the air. So it touched down that goes over 20 yards. No quarterback had more than 20. Jalen Hertz had 28. So he says something that is good at deep balls. Will he lose that without AJ Brown? We'll see. Devante Smith is a good deep ball player. Wix, a good deep ball player. So it's a number that people are going to put in teasers. I know pros, same thing. Like, they've taken a ton of money line stance on this because it's a lot of-- if you're taking this, it's a basically a bet on Jalen Hertz at home if you're taking them line line. Jalen Hertz is 12 and 1 as a favorite at home in divisional games. He just plays really well at home, especially in divisional games and wins. On the flip side, it feels like these commanders games are always kind of crazy and wonky. They're just a really back and forth high-scoring games. If you go through, I think it's the last three years, the overs five in one in this divisional matchup. They just tend to score a lot of points. So yeah, you expect Eagles better defense. I mean, that front against that offensive line of the commanders, I don't see how the commanders can really score to put. Like we talked about, this Eagles team-- no one knows they're going to be offensively. It's going to be 60% run with Seqwan, or they're going to be a more pass happy team. It's just so many unknowns. So to me, it's another game just happy to avoid. Happy to watch it, bet on it, put a little bet on the Eagles' winning line. But to invest in the spread, I just don't want to put too much money into it. I'm surprised to hear you say that. It sounded to me like you were leaning towards being comfortable with taking the Eagles at the 4 1/2, 5 or 5 1/2, especially because five's kind of a dead number, right? So there's no massive difference between taking the 4 1/2 or a 5 or even a 5 1/2. So I'm surprised you didn't invest at all in the Eagles at 4 1/2. Because this just feels like by game time, it's going to be 6. And we're going to be doing some day's show. It's going to be 90% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Eagles. And we're just going to show you about it. Yeah. So that's why I don't want to get people to invest me through. Because it just feels like this is line up to be a divisional trap. It's just the line that has moved a lot. And once it touches 6, I'm not going to have a choice of 1/2 to take a position like a man who's even I don't want to. It's just these divisional games are really wonky in week 1. Minnesota is a 1 1/2 point favorite hosting the Green Bay Packers for the record. This was Vikings plus 1 1/2. Right up until August 11th. And August 11th, Calamari was named the Vikings starter. And to me, this says three things about how professional bettors see these teams. One, no faith in J.J. McCarthy. Two, lots of faith in the Vikings defense. Three, no faith in the Packers defense until at least Micah Parsons is back. We did say on the show the other day that we do like Minnesota minus 1 1/2. But I put it on my list as one that we're going to have to continue talking about during the week and think seriously about for our final five. I do really like it still. Still like the Vikings. I mean, there are some incredible LaFour stats about how good he is in September. I've seen all that stuff. Yeah, yeah. I just felt like they had a better team then. They just have not-- every year they've gotten worse since LaFour stick members. Not his fault in my mind, like he's not the one draft and all these players, but I just can't get over how bad this team is going to be defense and how bad their offensive line is. If Flores doesn't take advantage of these type of teams, he's going to have real problems because the Bears offense line is really good. They're going to be on a run the ball against Minnesota if they can't really buckle down here and stop this team, especially without Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is another team I think they're going to get better as the season goes along because they have good coaching. These guys will get better with more reps, but in this position, it just feels like this might be a struggle. And we've taught Kyler. I wish it stayed a dog because there's so many amazing stats about the professional dogs at week one. But I think it's the right flip. I don't know if I'm going to force this thing, because once again, it's maybe it's PTSD, but you and I won on Ravens plus one and a half against the Bills in week one last year or a new year before. And then it flipped to minus one and a half. So half of our fans of the show lost, because it literally landed on one. Well, that's what I was going to raise, right? Like we have been burned many, many times, and we have benefited many, many times from making sure, from betting the flip. And we get burned when it goes from a dog to a favorite, and we end up on the favorite, and we benefit when we got the dog early at the plus one and a half. So that to me, a little bit of that sort of psychological obstacle is there for me on this number. Yeah, someone that's like, that's what's hard for me to separate to is I've taken a large position, obviously, on the Vikings, and I'm a big believer in the season. So for me, this is another tone setter. It's like, not that they need to win this game, but this goes a long way to, you know, me now look like a totally idiot being all in on this Vikings team and back in Kythe, because it's a tone setter. It's like, all right, you are now up one nothing in your division, and potentially if the Bears lose and who knows what goes on with Detroit, it's like, OK, this is exactly the way that Vikings need to start their season. So I definitely think this is way more important for the Vikings than it's for Green Bay. Green Bay, it just be another day in the park. Like they just are, they're such a veteran team with this point, especially Jordan Love. I don't think they'd be that big of a deal, obviously, if they lose this game for the Vikings, I honestly do. Like you can't be losing this game at home with the expectations now, that color merger starter. So it is interesting that the pros have come in, so have you on the Vikings, because some books have touched too. So this has come down a little bit back to one and a half. So we'll see, come Thursday if this number removes it all. Let's stay strong, Simon. Let's stay strong. Senator and I football, Dallas Cowboys minus 2 1/2 in the New York Giants. Look, we both have been trashing the Giants all preseason, and we've been loving the Cowboys all preseason. But I will say, this feels like a total trap to me, a complete and total trap. And if I'm betting this at all, and I have not touched this yet, if I'm betting this, I'm waiting till Sunday night when people have made their money, and this line gets to three at least, and maybe I take a piece of the Giants. But right now, I'm not taking the Cowboys as 2 1/2 road favorites on a Sunday night game. - I will say if you want the Cowboys, I would grab them now, 'cause it's basically getting to three in every book. And I do think it could, if the public has a great day, the books will easily move this to plus 3 1/2 on the Giants, like they will just need all that sucker when they can get on top of them, and still add a bad number on Dallas. So if you do want Dallas, you can find it 2 1/2, it's not the worst bet. But I already told you, people, it's not ideal to fade home dogs divisionally in week one. Like it's just over the years, it is rare, but basically since 2020, they're 11 and 5, these home dogs on week one when they're divisional. So it's like, okay, are you gonna just back this Cowboys team which I just said we all love? I mean, everyone's picking them to win the division as well, which is like, you know, it's how it is, right? They're not gonna pick the Eagles to win three in a row. It's so much more likely than a Cowboys team that did go out, did pusher that defense. They do have a new DC, so we'll see how he does as well. But they're an unproven T3 Cowboys, we're number one in penalties last year. That's a big deal. Like, you know, as much praise you want to give them, that's penalties aren't cause you have a bad defense. That's bad, that's on coaching. So we know Horball, his team is not gonna be that. They're not gonna be a ton of penalties. He does, he is a good coach that can get his guys in those type of stairs that they're not sloppy like that. And you think they'll be prepared. And this is a fun game where I know pros who have, you know, been all in on this Giants team. [BLANK_AUDIO] them to win this division. They believe they're a great sleep for this season and they're hammering this giant's team, but they haven't been on them in a month in this line because they knew what this was going to happen. They knew that public was going to come in and bet this up to three. So like I said, if you want Cowboys, get them now. But I think we need you in the Unison chat. We'll wait. Get the three. Yeah. Let's get them potentially three and a half. We count the giants and that's not fun, but you know, we don't hate the giants that enough to bet them to skip betting them in a good number, right? We're not, we're not the biggest giant's fans or supporters this year, but at this point, the number's too good to pass on. We're practical people. Like we're not letting the emotions get in the way of betting a good number and ignoring the probabilities that are sitting in front of us. Come on, we're rational. You make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room, groans because they wanted that player. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Touchdown, Jayhawks! Every week, we use exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. Fires it out, but flat to barkly, who beats one man, spins past another, leaps over a bird. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart. And that's why we make the Sullivan-verbal college football show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. How's it going? Every week, we preview the games that matter sort through the biggest storylines and tell you what to watch before kickoff. There's a lot to keep track of. Who's for real? Which upset is hiding in plain sight, and which storyline is about to take over your group chat? And when the games are over, join us in the aftermath too. We're going to react to what happened, talk about the biggest results, of course we'll cover the playoff picture, and all the little details you might have missed while flipping between like 12 games at once. Whether you know every coach and coordinator or just want to understand why everybody is yelling, we're here to help make sense of the madness. The NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Sicilyano. We fly around every single play. We dominate every single play. Want to hear from the league's top stars? Add to the biggest matchups? We've got you covered. That really good football team. Simon, the Monday night football game is the Denver Broncos at the Kansas City Chiefs, and the line was three. It's now down to two and a half. I just want to give you some credit here because on the last show, on the future show, I told you that in the discord, we are voting on the futures bets that we're putting into our portfolio, and it came down to Cincinnati over Philly in the Super Bowl and Denver, 21 to win the Super Bowl. And you made the case that we should also put in Denver over Philly at +210 and replace it with the Broncos with that bet. So I put it to a vote. The discord voted. We replaced Denver 21 with Denver to beat Philly at +210. So congratulations, your influence is being felt. Thanks, Chad. Do we think this number is truly representative of the teams? Like it was at three, so let's come down a little bit. Or is this a Patrick Mahomes number? Because my question is, after this game, will we be glad that we've brought into the Broncos now across all of our Super Bowl exactos and futures bets? Because they're going to win, and the number's going to come down. Will we be sad that we brought into the Chiefs, even at under a field goal? Like, I'm trying to get a glean on this game, and two and a half has always been the magic number for Mahomes, right? You take Mahomes at two and a half, you fade Mahomes at three. So I've kind of bummed the numbers at two and a half because I really like the Broncos at three. Once again, there's tons of threes up there, brother, so you can find it. There are a bunch of books at three at this point. I don't want to do this one either because it's the public and the pros are all on Denver. Everyone's been Denver. Why would you not? Right? They had the number one defense last year. They had a number one offensive line last year. Like, Bonix was fine in six weeks after his injuries. Had a good off season. He looked good and camped. They added Jalen Waddle. It's like, everything should be up for this Broncos team. The flip side, the Chiefs are going to be so much better in week 10 than they are right now. Their difference is so young. They might be down, Simmons. They're offensive tackle. Like, talk about disaster start. You already put in your quarterback who's rushed back from injury behind a weakened offensive line. So many more questions about this Chiefs team. I'll try to give out more totals on Thursday if possible, but this one jumped out right away from our guy up in a rooms. Basically, Mahomes in his career be as ninth season opener. He is 7-0-1 in his career to Chiefs Overs. So pretty insane that basically every week one came from Mahomes. They're scorned either. His defense is going up points because it's a spags defense, right? It takes time. Yeah, it really does. This guy is a defensive genius when the total is around 42 or 43, which it is. That'd be the lowest total in Mahomes's career as an opener. Every total blow 46 since he started. He's 4-0 to the Overs, obviously. So this is just someone that, you know, I feel like people doubt offensively. If you go look at the numbers last year, he was scorned. It was the defense that struggled last year with the Chiefs. And there was Mahomes that we were still used to the 2-minute drill, right? Him driving the field getting the field goal. You just couldn't do it last year. They just could not close out those games and those really ugly thrown over. So match applies. It's tough for me, Chad. Like, I really wanted to be on the Broncos of +3, but I might take the coward route out and just taking over here. And another game where I'll just sit back and watch because I don't know what to do with it. It's like, I think it's mean you have such a history and such a pass, betting Mahomes. Yeah. It's under three. I feel like we're just biased to it. We're last year. It burned us. He was one and three in that exact scenario. Well, that's what I keep thinking is we're betting what used to be and not what is. And it's why we started to come around on the Broncos as we got further and further into the preseason. We're like, wait a second. Why are the Broncos +300 to win the AFC West? Why are the Broncos a 20-to-1 to win the Super Bowl? They have their entire defense back. They got better on offense. Bonyx didn't have a debilitating career ending injury. They were so close, even with a backup quarterback to getting to the Super Bowl, right? We don't know anything about the Chiefs. Everyone is just excited that Patrick Mahomes is back from an knee off of a really bad season. We don't know anything about their receiving core right now. We don't know anything about like how good is Kenneth Walker going to be as they're running back in their new system. We don't know about their injuries. They're defense like you said. They've been drafting to backfill and backfill and backfill. So I know the chiefs have to be the favorite in this game. But I think if we just looked at this on paper, it probably closer to pick. If we took all the emotion out of it, it would be closer to pick to me. Yeah, it's tough for me because I am playing both sides in the future markets as well, where I'm on both these teams were. So I know really sharp groups that they have not invested a penny into my homes. They are more than happy to wait and see a moment. It's like, all right, this guy's coming off a major in injury knee injury early. This one, the youngest defense is all football for this chiefs team. And the chiefs, not like the chiefs have been incredible at drafting, right? So I know some programs that are just staying away from this chiefs team. I know pro groups that are just totally out on Denver, where they look at this team that was 14 on one in games that you have. Set a record. And it's hard to push back on either side. My pushback is always going to be my home just needs to make it to the dance. If you can just get in there, his superpower is that whatever he does in January, whatever he does mentally to these other quarterbacks, these other teams, I guess the January and February, it is a superpower like Brady had it. My home's has it. We can't explain it. It doesn't make sense. Your numbers don't can't explain. There's no model that can predict it. And the flip side would Denver. I keep saying these guys, even if they were aggressive, three games. Okay, they're not 15 and two or 14 and three. I still think Denver's going to 12 or 13 wins. Like this team is so talented. If bonix takes another step, I really do think that I'll cancel out all that stuff. And it's like you have Sean Payton, the Super Bowl winning coach, all that pedigree with all this talent. They know how to use it. So yeah, it's it's a really another another game it's fun over 10 tones that are right. The Chiefs win. You'll look like a genius. If you did come in here, big balls being like you guys are fools, not back in my homes under a field goal. And if you're in on Denver and they come and they smoke this Chiefs team, it's like, yeah, why would you doubt the one seed from last year, the best team that should have been in the Super Bowl and should have won the Super Bowl last year. So man, I know I'm going to take a beating, especially on sharp calls about this game, but I am. I'm going the coward route. I'm just taking the over. I just I trust both quarterbacks get points. And I think both defenses here are like you said, all the unknowns. I think that works for both the offenses more suddenly defenses. I think it's going to be a really hard conversation to keep to keep Denver out of this. I think I think this is going to be one of those where you like to say you get bullied by the sharp calls. This could potentially be one that gets bullied by the sharp calls. We will do brass balls on Thursday. We will do sharp calls on Thursday. We'll have so much more to talk about on Thursday. Simon says presented by Polymarket was Carolina plus three and a half currently trading at 55% on Polymarket. Chad's choice was the bucks plus three and a half. This has been our week one Tuesday show, brother. We made it. Well done. Thanks, Chad. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on our survivor pick our head to head battle brass balls. So much more sharp calls. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square like the video. Subscribe to the channel. If you want to join the discord go to read the number dot com preorder the number you'll get a link to the invite only discord. You can help us vote on bets. I am going to make also down some Spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate review subscribe. Say whatever you want. We five stars. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. I'm JJ Zachary Sin, host of the award winning late round podcast. Before your draft are players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast and the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. College football will hijack your weekend ruin your sleep and break your heart. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubinstein. Every week we preview the games that matter in the story lines that are going to ignite your group chat. Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. The league's newest podcast, the NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Sicilyano. It is your home for everything football breaking news expert analysis game picks and here from your favorite players to join me and at all star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episode to the NFL report Monday through Friday all season long. On big lives we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Guaranteed Human. [BLANK_AUDIO]