from The Early Edge: A Daily Sports Betting Podcast
1h 5m 36s
The Week 10 NFL Player Prop Show features a deep analysis of key player props across multiple matchups. Proppy highlights Chris Olave as a top pick over 73.5 yards due to his elite performance and the Panthers’ decimated secondary. Malik Washington is favored in Miami with a strong short-area target play against the Colts’ vulnerable coverage. Jim Rae DK and George Kittle are also backed for high-yield receiving plays, while Zack Sharbinay and Chuba Hubbard are selected for their matchups against poor defenses. A central debate centers on whether a pre-game text declaring a loss on a player’s play counts as a forfeit, raising questions about prop integrity. Kurt Cousins is heavily favored under 21.5 completions against Green Bay, citing defensive strength and expected regression. The discussion also touches on trade dynamics, player injuries, and value in off-the-radar names like Carl Tate. Prop rules, especially around forfeits and reverse jinxes, are scrutinized, with participants emphasizing equitable outcomes. The show emphasizes value, matchup efficiency, and risk mitigation in player prop selections, concluding with a strong focus on underdog and situational plays rather than big-name favorites.
(upbeat music)
Welcome to the Week 10 Take the Points NFL Player Prop Show.
I am your host, EC.
It is great to have you with us.
We have the legends all here,
and ready to make picks.
We have our guy, Proppy, who by the way is number one
in NBA picks right now, killing it there.
We have our guy, Sia, who is number one.
I mean, there's nobody better in golf.
75 to one with Trace Crow.
I don't even know who that is.
And I host the golf show with you, Sia.
No clue who that is.
And you got him.
She was minus 10 yesterday,
and you hit a big FRL.
Congratulations on that.
And then we have the legend, the Hall of Famer,
the great Uncle Dave.
Uncle Dave, we'll get to you in a second here.
But I wanted to go to the recap screen last week.
A tremendous week from the crew, 11 and five.
Great job.
Sia going undefeated, Uncle Dave, two and one.
And the one you lost is a plus 270.
So there's no shame in that.
Malik Willis didn't know he had a bum hammy.
It was why he wasn't running.
And I don't know what the Vikings were doing, Proppy.
I love that Justin Jefferson look.
It just didn't happen there.
But let's talk about O'Marian Hampton first, Uncle Dave.
You talk about a lucky hit for me
with a 32 yard run, what he was doing next to nothing.
Give me something to make me feel better about myself
for hitting that prop.
I'm going to give you jack nothing
to make you feel better about anything.
I need a ruling from the prop master himself,
property, prop stars, Alex Selznick.
We got this text in our group chain
before the fourth quarter of the Texans charges blow out.
This is from the one and only Eric Cohen.
And I quote, "Lesson learned,
I'll send my double payout here a bit later on
and then in all caps no more Hampton to which I responded
as politely as I always am.
Sounds like you're waving the white flag to me.
I accept your declaration of defeat."
And then what happens?
Hampton has a meaningless 32 yard run
and guess who posts in their chat?
Win or winner with a skull emoji and that's EC.
And so does this really count?
Is this really a win?
Does EC get credit for win when he claimed already
before it happened?
There's the text, there it is.
Eddie said, "Lesson learned, I lost,
gonna send your payout, sounds to me."
Like that should be binding
and that we should actually see an eye.
Well, does it see an eye or me and you?
- It's probably me.
- It was me and you Dave and I insist on it.
- I don't want you ruling.
I'm taking it back.
I need see as ruling.
- I need my lawyer seeing the job to help you out here.
- Yeah, what is equitable here
when he clearly forfeited the prop?
- So what's your misidentifying, Dave?
Is that it was not a clear forfeit.
It was a clear reverse jinx attempt.
Whether that was conscious or subconscious.
It happens all the time on the Twitter, on the text chains.
That was a, I'm almost positive I lost
but this is my last ditch effort.
This is my one time.
This is my gut shot straight draw.
I need a six and I got a six and I got a win.
That's how it works.
- I know.
I was just hoping for a different answer from you
so that I wouldn't have to pay him for the showdown.
And now that I know, and I knew all week,
I will now pay you see.
- Listen, it wasn't, thank you.
It was an unintentional reverse jinx.
I thought Hampton was toast.
- Oh, you're full of it.
That was the first I botched if I've ever seen one.
- He stunk, no more Hampton.
Listen, Poppy has educated me plenty on this show.
No more receiving props from running backs
and no more picking three way splits in the backfield, right?
Well, you've taught me that, Poppy.
So I told you yesterday, let's get to props here.
I told you yesterday that I was gonna pick
like the lesser players and leave the big names to you.
And so we're just gonna do that on the show.
You guys, the other three of you have the big names
and I have two lesser names plus a kicker prop.
All right, Poppy, let's start with one.
You, you said, go bet this now.
This is a must bet, a New Orleans wide receiver,
a must bet, a one and a half unit play on the site.
Who is it, and why are we gonna hammer this?
- Yeah, it's Chris Olave, you see.
We're gonna go over just 74 or 73.
I think you can find them as low as,
and a half receiving yards for Olave here.
I just love this spot for Olave.
Olave is having truly a fantastic season.
If you look at a lot of the advanced metrics,
he has certainly been a top 10 wide receiver
in the NFL this season.
And coming off of the by-week,
really got off to a hot start as Tyler Schuck
as did the Saints passing offense.
We saw them kind of crater a bit,
leading up to their by-week struggle.
And as a result, the by-product of that,
Olave struggled a bit.
But this guy's averaging over 90 receiving yards
per game, getting Brink's top five,
nearly every efficiency metrics.
He's also coming off of a 98% route participation
in his last game, which you absolutely love to see.
So elite usage from Olave,
but what I love about this is this matchup
against the Panthers' defense.
First of all, their secondary is absolutely decimated.
They are down numerous starters.
I think they're top three or four corners,
if I'm not mistaken, are out for this game.
The Panthers also just fire defensive coordinator
as Euro-Ivero as well, leading up to this game.
So they're just in disarray, top wallashes recurring,
defensive coordinator, and it's been really tough for them.
I mean, the secondary is so banged up.
They were down to Marco Wilson and Corey Thornton
at cornerback.
Both of these guys have been huge, huge liabilities
in coverage before the Panthers.
They're cornerback deaf, they're starters at least.
Mike Jackson and Jason Horan used to be
an area of strength for them, but is not the case.
Both were injured in week three.
They're both on injured reserve.
Then they turned to a cameley of Evans and Will Lee.
Both players were huge downgrades.
Now both of them are on injured reserve.
So this secondary is absolutely decimated.
I also love adding Jordan Tyson to this New Orleans
passing attack while he didn't make a big impact
in the box score.
This guy is going to play a bigger role.
You played limited staff, 16 snaps, four targets.
He was heavily targeted on those snaps.
But his ability to draw some defensive attention
away from a lava is just going to open up things for him.
So getting a discount, he really think Tyler Schup.
His passing line is 251 1/2 yards.
That's higher than his season average
of around 245 passing yards per game.
We're also looking at opponents against Carolina
up to go extremely pass heavy.
I believe there are last five opponents.
All right, excuse me, if I'm not mistaken, every single opponent
outside of that bucks game where Baker didn't complete a pass
and they won the game, I have opted
to go extremely pass heavy against this Carolina defense.
So I love this spot for a lava.
We're getting a discount on the line.
He's going to be facing basically third string cornerbacks.
I think the Saints passing offense is going
to have a lot of success.
I also do really like Tyler Schup to throw
for over 250 passing yards here.
But I think a lava goes for triple digits in this game.
I also think the panthers conversely
can also push New Orleans a little bit as well.
So Uncle Dave, I want to ask you not only about this prop,
but Ghost in the Chat has a great one here.
He said Jordan Tyson was 28 1/2 earlier this week.
Jumped, he laddered it to 100 yards at 35 to 1,
which is unbelievable of true.
Line jumped to 42 1/2.
Would you also play the Tyson over along with your lava over?
I'm a little encouraged by Tyson getting a little bit more
work this week, but that number feels a little high.
I would stay away from 42 1/2.
35 to 1, though, on 100 yards.
That seems kind of sexy.
Just another point and a big reason why
I really like this look from Broppie
is that the panthers play cover three
at the league's highest rate.
They don't get away from it.
They've also been one of the lowest blitz teams in the league.
Cover three has typically met great things for Chris Olave.
He is averaging nearly three yards per route run against cover three.
He's going to get a lot of targets.
He will be very effective with it.
This is a great ladder play.
So Olave over 73 1/2, hammer that one.
I like that over a lot, but I could see him getting north of 80,
north of 90, north of 100, north of 110.
This is really one where I think Olave can pop off.
And I almost gave out Jordan Tyson as well.
So I love this spot.
I love everything that you said,
Broppie, about Tyler Schuck and this game should be fun.
See, before the show, early in the show,
I was saying, you guys are going to give out big names on this show.
And then I looked at the rundown and I'm like,
wait, Jamari DK is not necessarily a big name.
That's somebody that I would usually target.
But this is a really savvy play.
What are you playing with DK this week?
Yeah, DK, not on anybody's radar until probably week eight.
And we were reintroduced to DK, a guy who I think is pretty good,
but just because of certain acquisitions
that the Titans made in the off season,
he just got kind of buried.
And in week eight, we saw him, what was it?
Five for six for 71 yards.
And he was on the field for almost every single dropback
in that game against the Bengals.
Now that game was a lot different
than what we're going to see against Jacksonville in this game,
but he's still going to be involved.
And he's probably earned a little bit more of a target share.
I like Jim Rae DK over 21.5 receiving yards at minus 122.
I think this has ladder potential at 30 plus,
35 plus, 40 plus.
I mean.
DK, as far as these receivers are concerned, he's probably my favorite with Iron Manor,
with Juan Dale Robinson.
I think DK's the guy that's more likely to get down field and gobble up yards.
And frankly, this is a negative came strip, right?
Jacksonville is going to be really good, but Jacksonville is also beatable in their secondary.
So this is just one of those situations where Cam Ward, who I got to admit, I'm not a big
Cam Ward guy, but he looks like he's playing a little bit better.
He's at home coming off a biweek as is Jacksonville, but I expect him to have to throw the ball
down field a good amount, and DK could be the leading receiver of this entire receiver
group.
So over 21 and a half, I will say it's 24 and a half in a lot of places.
I like it there.
I like it at 26 and a half.
I'd probably say I'd maybe at 27 and a half.
I'd probably maybe hesitate a little bit, but it depends on the number because I think this
has ladder potential.
Proper go.
Also worth noting that Jacksonville is a significant pass funnel.
Also Jordan Davis and Jesse Bates will not be making their debut with the Jags this
week.
Both of those guys have yet to have their biweek with the Falcons and with the Eagles.
Jacksonville has already had their bi, so essentially they're getting a bi here and also
getting caught up on the playbook, obviously.
But yeah, this Jacksonville defense not quite is imposing without obviously the two editions,
but the Jaguars have been a massive pass funnel.
Their run defense has been elite this season teams are opting to attack them, even in neutral
game scripts against Jacksonville, much as a trailing game script, which this is obviously
looking like it's going to be.
Furthermore, Cam Moore is playing a lot more respectable at least in comparison to early
in the season.
He was downright dreadful.
He's been mediocre the last couple of weeks, but mediocre for him is a big improvement
compared to what we saw previously.
He was pretty good against Cincinnati over 300 yards.
I mean, they pushed Cincinnati, so I'm going to give him a little bit better than mediocre
there.
Dave, speaking of mediocre, we don't know what to expect from Kyle McCord.
He did lead the NCAA in passing a couple of years ago at Syracuse, but at Ohio State,
when he got on the field, it was not pretty.
So now he takes over from Malik Willis and you're going to play a wide receiver prop over
for Miami.
I was kind of surprised, but Propy loves his spot for you.
Who is it and why?
This arguably might be my favorite player prop that I've had this year.
And it's weird because normally I like taking player props with stars, the big name players,
the guys that we know are going to play a lot.
Well, here's a receiver in Miami and Malik Washington who has been playing a lot for
them.
I like the over on his receptions, three and a half at minus one-thirteen.
And McCord, whether we're looking at the preseason, whether we're looking at his time
at Syracuse, whether we're looking at his time at Ohio State, he's known for getting
the ball out quick.
This time to throw average is no higher than 2.54 seconds in any of those three elements
that I just talked about.
And it just makes sense that the dolphins are going to lean into that with him, try and
make it easy in his first NFL game against Indianapolis to get the ball out quick.
And when the dolphins have done that this year and they've done it a lot, Malik Washington
leads the way with a 31% target per route rate on throws of under 2.5 seconds.
That's really the long and the short of it.
Washington's been over this in five of seven games.
Chris Bell, I don't know if he's out for the game, I know he didn't practice earlier this
week.
I think there's a chance here where there's only two good wide receivers for Miami.
It's Malik Washington and it's Caleb Douglas.
And Douglas certainly more of a downfield threat, whereas Washington is short area target.
I'm not looking for efficiency.
I'm looking for catches.
I think Washington will get a bunch of them taking the over on three and a half.
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Yeah, I love this look, this is a very, very like you're going to end up on my card.
The Colts have a very strong outside corner deal as well.
Slot corner Justin Wally has been a massive liability in coverage.
Malik Washington plays almost exclusively out of the slot.
He's going to be a Satan blanket for McCord.
McCord already profiles as a point guard pocket passers, somebody who's very willing to
drink and dunk and peppering his best route runner with targets.
So, that has certainly been Malik Washington.
He gets open and he gets open close to the line of scrimmage over the middle of the field,
which is exactly where the Colts have arguably been, the biggest liability as far as any
task defense in football this year.
So, it just sets up so nicely for Malik Washington for his skill set.
I agree with that.
This is a tremendous look.
I see it when his spell is doubtful for the game, and here's another wrinkle that actually
helps our cause.
Dolphin center Aaron Brewer as a concussion, he's not going to play.
One of their better offensive linemen.
If he's out, that's just going to put more pressure on Colmo Court to get that ball out
of his hands.
And Washington should be skimmed up.
I bet this hits before half time.
I think he's going to end up, I think it's going to look a lot like what we've seen
from Jeremy Bernard with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I can see something like eight to ten targets, and then Malik Washington finishes with six
or seven catches for about 55 yards.
See, do you have a rule on guys on new quarterbacks?
Like, we're seeing McCord make his first start this week.
We're seeing Fernando Mendoza make his first start, Carson Beck making his first start.
Do you have a rule on betting props related to those guys?
I mean, Ghost in the Chat asks about Mendoza's passing line of around 191 against Seattle's
defense, which is only given up one 200 yard pass or all season.
Yeah, I don't know that I have a rule.
I will say that I'm always thinking of, and this applies to Kurt Cousins too, to some degree.
And I think we're going to talk about him later, if I recall correctly, propious a play
on him.
Any new quarterback, whether they're a rookie or not, I like the idea that the team is
going to protect that quarterback with the running game is something I like to invest
in.
If I think the running game is viable, that's why, like, for the Dolphin's game, I don't
doubt Dave's pick at all.
But I do think it's going to like, they're going to try to like, this is the Colts, right?
We're not necessarily talking about a negative game script.
They're definitely going to try to run the ball with Oli Gordon in company.
But that's what I would say about Mendoza too.
The thing about Mendoza is that game script could get away from him.
And so he might have to pass the ball, whether he's going to be effective against Seattle,
like I have my doubts there.
So I would lean to the under there as well.
But yeah, I don't have a rule, but I definitely, I always try to look at, all right, if it's
a young quarterback, if it's a new quarterback, what can the team do to protect that quarterback?
Is it through the running game?
Like what's going to happen to make that quarterback feel comfortable?
The short area passing game certainly in that Miami game makes a lot of sense from a court.
Properly.
Last week, you gave out a couple of Lions players to go over against the Dolphins.
And I'm on Ross St. Brown was one of them.
And once again, you're going to go right back to it.
He faces New England.
I believe the game is in Germany.
Is that right?
Correct.
Germany think I got 23 or 22 out of 45 on the Europe test on last week's show.
But I do know where Germany is.
Believe it or not.
Proper.
I'm on Ross St. Brown going up against the Patriots.
We saw what Christian Watson did.
We saw what Matthew Golden did.
Is this a buy or a fade for you?
Yeah, it's a big time buy for the sudden guy who I think is going to shine very bright
in Germany for Detroit here.
I love this spot for a mon Ross St. Brown, who is clearly the engine of Detroit's hyper
aggressive, aerial attack, a mon Ross St. Brown is the premier slot receiver.
In the NFL, I think he's actually a good buy low by superstar standards in fantasy as
well because he's been relatively quiet compared to his very lofty standards.
But yeah, this Patriots defense, the past defense has been downright badly.
So Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Jordan Love and Company did to them last week.
Marcus Jones, he is going to be primarily tasked with slowing down a mon Ross St.
Brown.
He has been a liability in coverage.
Christian Gonzalez, who's not playing great football mind you, does not typically travel
to the slot.
So this is just a great spot for a mon Ross St.
Brown.
Patriots don't double team at a high rate.
And teams this season, this isn't like we've seen New England in previous years where teams
are afraid of their secondary.
They've usually had elite coverage units for a long time dating back to Bill Belichick.
But not the case right now at all.
So teams are opting to attack through the air.
The slot has been an extremely vulnerable position.
for this New England defense to defend.
So I think this is a big spot for Amon Ross and Brown.
I also think the Patriots are capable of really pushing Detroit.
We've got a 50 plus point total,
which is usually a norm when we're talking about
a Detroit Lions football game.
But Drake main company, I think we'll be able
to have success on the other side.
So I just think this is a spot where Amon has huge upside.
This looks like a potential ceiling move to me.
- Well, okay, fair enough.
Uncle, they're going back to your Malik Washington play
in the chat, Cosmic Charlie asks Caleb Douglas
over 41 and a half yards at minus 113, any thoughts?
- No, I'd stay away.
I think that his routes tend to be much further down field.
We know he can win there.
And I know he's fun for fantasy.
And I like having him on my team.
I wouldn't chance it.
If I had to lean a little bit in favor of the over I would,
but I just, why would I do that
when I could just put more on Washington's catches?
- Yeah, Malik Willis, Malik Willis attacked down field
when he throw, was it a high-volume passing offense?
But when he did, he left the ball rip,
which benefited Caleb Douglas.
Now we're going to see a complete difference
as far as what the quarterback play is going to look like.
Someone who's going to take the defense gives,
focus on the short and intermediate portions of the field.
And that's really where Malik Washington has thrive.
Yeah, would not want multiple pieces of the passing attack
to mean Malik Willis is clear in a way the best option
as far as Miami pass catchers are concerned.
I also like his yard score a bit as well.
- Hey, Uncle Dave, I know we don't do a lot of fantasy
on this show, but I mean, you're the preeminent expert
in the country, in the world.
So I might as well ask you this.
To QB League, I have to keep one of these guys on IR,
Malik Willis or Lamar Jackson,
who is more likely to return this season.
- The Ravens announced today that the surgery went well
for Lamar and he's expected to miss
anywhere from six to 10 weeks.
We're in week 10.
If he comes back in six weeks, that's 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15,
week 15, week 16, I don't even know if he'll be back by then.
I don't know what kind of shape the Ravens will be in by then.
But I also know that Malik Willis, when he comes back,
is he really going to help your fantasy team?
If he's still going to have a tender groin, that was funny.
I would say that, I would say the upside in case you make
like your league championship and Lamar is back,
would be Lamar.
But I don't even know if he's going to make it back.
I think they're going to try and make the playoffs
with Jacobi Berset.
And then once the playoffs come around, Lamar comes back.
- To two QB League, got to get desperate and keep one of them.
Go ahead, go ahead, Robbie.
- I have a fantasy question for Dave.
I'm in some leagues where I have a nice record,
where I'm better, at least seven and two or better.
Thank you. And in those leagues, I'm obviously looking ahead here.
I'm interested in potentially making some offers to teams
that have Puka that look like they're like, you know,
five and five, five and six-ish or whatever,
and need to win now.
What do you think is an appropriate offer
to a Puka owner to potentially get him over to my team
from a team that needs to win now?
- I know you know this, but this is for everybody else.
I make a trade chart every week that shows a value
for every player that means something in fantasy,
and you can go on the chart and you can see
what Nukuah's value is worth.
And it's not necessarily based on what I think.
It's not like I'm some all-encompassing wizard
that knows the future.
It's really a combination of a lot of forward-looking factors
that are set by the general public, not by me.
And so I think the general public still has a pretty
favorable opinion of Nukuah, but it's obvious that now we know
we're going to get four games, five weeks,
without him back on the field for fantasy managers.
The value right now is pretty low.
So I would encourage you to go on Google,
search for CBS fantasy trade chart.
It's going to come right up.
- I put it in the chat as well, everybody.
- Perfect, even better so everybody in the chat can see it.
But if you're watching after the show,
you can always go on Google,
and there's a new one every week,
where you can just search for a week 11 trade chart,
week 12 trade chart, and they'll tell you
what types of players are comparable to one player,
or, in the case of what you're doing property,
maybe you can come up with two smaller players,
and have that equal what Pukinakua is worth,
and offer that around to all the people
that have Pukin on their teams and are hungry for a win.
- You know, Pukinakua, you're doing my job for me here,
because you're talking about Pukinakua,
and I'm about to talk about Konata Mumfield.
I did not think I would ever talk about Mumfield
on the NFL Player Prop Show, but here we are.
Who the heck are the Rams going to throw the ball to?
No Devonte Adams, no Pukin, Terrence Ferguson, still out.
I mean, they're going to play against the Cardinals.
The game script will probably not be in his favor
with Carson Beck, and literally no wide receivers
for the Cardinals, but he had a 72% snap rate
in weeks two and three without Nikua,
and that was with Devonte Adams.
He had four catches, 93 yards,
and a touchdown in week three on eight targets
against Denver, also with Devonte Adams.
In, with 11 catches this season,
he's averaging 14.7 yards per catch.
Take away that 48-year touchdown against Denver.
He's still averaging more than 11 yards per catch.
The Cardinals play too high
at the third highest rate in the NFL,
and Mumfield has a 20% target per out run rate
against that coverage this season.
Cardinals also not that great against perimeter wide receivers.
The over under is 25 and a half yards.
Probably gone up a little bit.
I would still play this up to 30.
I mean, all we need is probably three 10-yard catches
from Mumfield. I think he will get five targets.
Sia, am I crazy?
UF DK, who's kind of an off the radar name,
and I decided I had to throw an off the radar guy
in Mumfield here.
I think the problem with Mumfield is he's on the field a lot,
but he just doesn't get a lot of volume.
Even when there's a lot of receivers
that are out for the Rams, I don't mind this play.
I just think, you know, what's interesting,
there's so many interesting things in this game
because I know a lot of people are looking at Kyron.
I know a lot of people are looking at Blake Corm.
I was looking at Stafford and his completions
because it's very rare that you see
a Stafford completions prop at 19 and a half,
which is where it's at.
And I'm just trying to figure out
where those completions going, a little bit
to the running backs, a lot to the tight ends.
We're going to see a lot of Colby Parkinson.
We're going to see a lot of Tyler Higby.
We're going to probably see a couple of catches
to Davis Allen.
And then it's maybe one or two sprinkles to 2-2 at well,
and then we'll see what Mumfield gets.
I think I don't mind this, but I do think
that the ceiling is actually lower than people think
on not a Mumfield relative to a guy like Jim Rae DK,
where I think the ceiling is a lot higher.
Now both floors are relatively low,
but that's why I prefer someone like DK,
because I think he can spring one deep.
And I don't know how much volume Mumfield's going to get.
- So, Propy, on this show, people clamor for overs.
They're like in the comments, we need overs.
This is the last receiving prop we're giving out,
and it's the sixth over we're going to give out.
And it's a guy in the Cowboys 49ers game,
which, oh by the way, has the highest total on the board.
Who is it, and why are we playing this over?
- Yeah, it's 55 points is the total in this game.
This is one of the highest totals I've seen
in the last couple of years, and I'm backing,
I want to take a piece, basically,
of this extremely efficient 49ers passing attack
versus one of the worst secondary and past defenses
in the NFL to their credit they have improved
in recent weeks, however, that came against,
like, Tanner McKee, basically.
So, I am not very confident in the Dallas defense,
especially without Joey Porter,
who has also played very well.
So, I'm backing George Kittle here
to go over just 61 and a half receiving yards.
George Kittle is having another phenomenal season.
He's delivering a lead efficiency
because of all the injuries,
even though they are getting some guys back,
Debo coming back, as well as Keenan Allen.
I think that helps George Kittle,
who's clearly operating as the focal point
of this highly efficient 49ers passing attack.
He basically operates as their downfield receiving threat
at tight end, which is all the more impressive,
and he does so on really impressive efficiency here.
So, in a game that just has shootout written all over it,
obviously a 55 point total.
I want to get a piece of the best past catcher
on San Francisco, Brock Birdie,
delivering just an incredibly efficient season.
Dallas, more than capable of pushing San Francisco here.
I do think they're going to be balanced,
but I also do think they're going to attack
the Cowboys through the air, especially vulnerable.
You've seen what this secondary has looked like
without Joey Porter Jr., it's really been bad.
So, I love this spot for George Kittle,
and what potentially is a shootout.
Yeah, he's been awesome this season.
I think it's going to continue.
I think he has a big game against Dallas.
Dave, in the chat, big cheesy says,
Dibo, over 35 and a half receiving yards,
but now we have Keenan Allen in the mix.
You have DeMarcus Robinson, you have Jordan Watkins.
What do we do with this 49er passing attack?
I studied Dibo Samuel, and strongly considered
taking the over on both his receptions and his yardage.
I like that he's fresh, coming back from injury.
He's a trusted weapon for Brock Birdie.
This is such a favorable matchup for the 49ers
because the Cowboys' defense,
while they're getting incrementally better
at getting to the quarterback,
they're not doing a good enough job at it.
And I know that Dibo Samuel really needs to break
one or two short catches a long way
for the overs to come in.
But I think he'll get there.
I think he's got a real nice shot
to get in the neighborhood of 40, 45 yards.
And so this
This over does look pretty good, not an official play for me, but I would lean over on
Debo, both yards and catches.
All right, fair enough.
This game should be a fun one to bet some props in, and the next one, Cia, we're going
to transition to running backs.
Now, I almost gave out JSN, but he was too big of a name for me to give out on the show.
I figured, let Propi do the heavy lifting with the big names here.
This is an interesting prop for a Seattle guy.
The running back situation there, you have Giderian price is back.
Zack Sharbinay has looked really good of late.
What do we do with him against the Raiders this week?
We take his over.
It's a very poor rush defense.
For the record, I like Giderian prices over as well.
It's in that 42 and a half, 43 and a half range.
There were so many things I considered with this game, longest rush over, combo receiving
yards, rushing and receiving yards over for both of these guys, but it's pretty clear
to me that Zack Sharbinay, pre-buy because the buy is next week, it's just going to be
the guy right now over Giderian price, and I think we saw that last week with a
16-9 rushing attempt split.
I'm looking at maybe not 16 carries against the Raiders, but somewhere between 13 and 15,
and this is a very bad Raiders rush defense.
I only need to get to 60 and a half, or I should say 61, rushing yards for Zack Sharbinay.
If he gets 13 to 15 carries, especially in a game script that I do think is going to
favor, don't forget, when you talked about Mendoza at quarterback, I don't think the Raiders. I don't think it's going to be a blowout necessarily, but I definitely think this is a neutral
to positive game script for the Seahawks.
I think we're going to see a lot of Sharbinay, I think we're going to see a lot of price,
and we're going to see a lot of yards for both of them.
I'm going to say this Seahawks, that the Raiders have played seven straight overlines, and
in each of those games, we've seen a total of 55 or more points.
The total this week is only 40 and a half, and I'm still hammering that over.
I think Seattle will do their part, so I really like this Sharbinay play.
Proper, earlier in the show, you talked about the Saints, and you're all in Onolave,
and you'll like Tyson Ok, and on the other side, and Tyler Schrock, of course, on the other
side, Jonathan Brooks was supposedly practiced for the Panthers, and now he is doubtful.
So who's going to give Chuba Hubbard any competition at Running Back?
What do we do with Chuba this week?
Yeah, Chuba Hubbard has been incredible, 81% snap share at Running Back.
That leads all running backs.
That is first in the NFL.
This guy is having just a phenomenal season, delivering really impressive efficiency on
an absolutely elite usage and workload.
And this just sets up so nicely for Chuba Hubbard, against New Orleans Saints' defense,
that's been a big run funnel.
They ranked 29th in EPA, allowed per rush.
Chuba has been fantastic.
And we've seen Bryce Young and this Carolina passing attack, well, they did play OK against
Denver last week.
They've really cratered in recent weeks, and that doesn't even matter, because what I love
about Carolina is they lead the NFL in pace.
They play at a faster pace than any offense in football.
So this game to me just looks like a really good game environment is why I'm taking multiple
pieces, obviously, back in Nolave, I'm personally going to bet Tyler Shucks passing yards as
well.
And I just think this potentially is a spike week for Chuba Hubbard, who has really just
been incredible.
If you look at a lot of the efficiency metrics, ranks top 10 and breakaway yards.
His elusive rating has been really impressive.
So yeah, Chuba Hubbard is having a fantastic season, just a neat workload as well.
He loves the usage, and what is a mouthwatering matchup, I should say, against the Saints.
It just looks like another potential spike week for Chuba here.
You know, I had mentioned earlier in the year, Dave, that I made a trade after week one.
I panicked.
I mean, this is what you do.
I traded in one deal.
Jamar Chase, the number three pick in the, and Chuba Hubbard, my 11th round pick thing.
Now, Jonathan Brooks is going to, I mean, you talk about an all-time, horrible trade.
I mean, the way you get back.
TJ Hawkins.
Not much, but I also threw in Tyler Warren and got a lot, got a really bad return.
Breeze Hall was part of it.
Nico Collins was part of it.
It was just a panic trade.
I didn't think my team was very good.
So the lesson learned, another lesson I've learned on this show, and I mentioned a few,
because don't panic, this was an all-time, awful, awful trade.
So there you have.
I just wanted to point that out.
I'm glad I didn't tell you the specifics of that deal, Uncle Dave earlier on.
But let's talk about the Browns and the Texans, speaking of Nico Collins.
Well, each should have a decent game, but we're talking running backs.
And you and I have correlated plays.
Why don't you start us off with the Browns running backs?
What do you do in this week?
We're taking the under on Quincheon Jugkins Yardage.
It's 43 and a half at minus 113.
And Browns coach Todd Monk and actually reminded us this week of what his role is and
what Dylan Sampson's role is.
So listen up, you see.
He basically spelled it out, and if you watch film, you already knew this was the case.
But Quincheon Jugkins, when they need to run or when they're in the close game, Quincheon
Jugkins is going to be on the field.
When they need to throw or they're trailing in a game, they're in the two minute offense,
you're going to see a lot of Dylan Sampson.
So given the way that this Texans offense has played in recent weeks, I think we'll see
more of Sampson and a little less of Quincheon Jugkins.
But the Browns will still give a lot of first half carries to Jugkins, because you know,
the game is being sorted out at that point, but he's sporting a cool 3.3 yards per carry
this season.
And the only reason it's even that high, guys, is because he had one great game with a good
rushing average against a weak Titans run defense three weeks ago.
So if we dig in a little bit and we think about the second half of games, and if the Texans
have a lead in the second half, I don't think we should expect to see a lot of Jugkins.
And I looked into the data to see, here's the proof, when the Browns have been down by six
or more points, that's it.
Six or more points, Jugkins has a grand total of 13 carries for 23 yards who are down in
the second half by any margin, 1.2 points, whatever it is, Jugkins won e-carries for 56
yards.
They played nine games.
He has 20 carries in the second half when they're trailing.
It's ridiculous.
So I think that this is going to be a game script that works really nicely in our favor.
I think it works nicely in Dylan Sampson's favor too.
I'm taking the under on Quincheon Jugkins yardage, not the attempts.
They will give them a lot of attempts.
He's just going to do nothing with him.
So Uncle Dave, I'm going to roll with the Dylan Sampson over.
I'm going to do combined yards here.
The line is 43.5 might have gone up a little bit, but I would still probably play it up
to about 48.
Because in his three games this season, we've seen 77, 69, and 48 total yards.
And since he's returned, we've seen a snapshot go from 46 to 56 to 64%.
He's also run a nearly 53% route share among Brown's running backs over the last three
weeks.
And by the way, the Texans have allowed 11 running backs over this number this season,
including two in each of their last three games.
So Uncle Dave, you could still hit your under.
Maybe Jugkins gets a couple of catches in the first half.
You could still hit your under for rushing out.
He goes over.
And we'll see if my ridiculous Texans defense trend continues.
But I really like the snap share for Dylan Sampson, and I think this line is several yards
too low.
So I am playing the over here, probably any thoughts on this Brown's running back situation?
Yeah.
I mean, if I were basically to pick how I'd choose to attack both running backs, I likely
under our Jugkins a lot, I'd definitely think Samson obviously is leaning into his workload.
It makes a lot of sense.
Considering his skill set versus Jugkins, who has largely been ineffective.
Yeah, and we've seen this Texans team really been ineffective running the football.
My one pause would be I do have concerns regarding the game environment.
If we look at the strength of the Browns, it has been their secondary, particularly attacking
on the outside.
My one worry would be that we see Houston basically play a competitive game environment with
them.
Thus creating more opportunities for Jugkins and maybe not playing catch up and having,
you know, Samson play a large role.
But yeah, if I were to again, take a spot for either of these guys and certainly be fading
Jugkins.
I definitely prefer Joe Samson because of his versatile skill set.
See what do you think of CJ Stroud under one and a half passing touchdowns this week?
From Big Cheesy.
Yeah, so this is interesting to me.
You'll find out in a second that I am on a little touchdown kick with quarterbacks.
And I'll tell you why in once we get to my picks.
But Stroud was a name that I was going to bring to this show for his over one and a half
touchdown passes.
And I will note when I was looking at it two days ago, it was plus money in a lot of spots.
Now it's in that minus 105 to minus 118 minus 120 range.
Here's the thing.
I know it's not a good matchup.
But some quarterbacks are just playing on a different level and are just slinging it to
whatever cast of receivers they have.
And I put CJ Stroud in that category.
So this Cleveland Brown team, I know they're good against the pass.
But if I'm getting something near even money on CJ Stroud with their two touchdown passes
with again, a running game that's not very good.
And frankly, a lot of my touchdown pass stuff that you're going to hear about, it's predicated
on running games that aren't very good, but still all fences that are good in good game
environments.
I think I-
I actually think Strauss is going to get to two plus touchdown passes.
Now I didn't bring it to the show.
It's not an official play, but personally, I would stay away from that, but shout out to
Big Cheesy.
Shout out to so many others far as odd.
We got people waiting for your kicker props like Daniel Greer, Bobby Turner in here.
I don't know, something creative.
I can't pronounce that one, but shout out to the chat.
Hit the like button.
Probably only one team this season has posted a positive pass rate over expected against
the Browns.
When I talk about my concerns with the game environment, it's because teams are choosing
to run heavily.
They are a big run funnel, and it's twofold.
One you avoid the past defense because it's above average and because they are extremely
vulnerable on the ground.
So the Texans, even though CJ Strauss certainly been swimming in it, having a very good season,
they've actually been quite balanced as well.
So that would be my concern would just be a lack of passing volume for CJ Strauss.
In this matchup.
All right, Uncle Dave, before see it gets his two passing touchdowns props, we have one
in the chat about Daniel Jones.
He has not thrown multiple touchdowns in a game this season.
Is this the week against the Miami Dolphins?
What are the odds?
I'm like plus 180 or something.
You're not getting that.
And why are we even considering this because of Daniel Jones was out there and ends
up stinking up the joint, they're going to pull them.
Like that opportunity, that possibility exists.
Actually, plus 173 plus 173 for two touchdowns.
Okay.
Well, that's a little bit different.
Would I put a sprinkle on it?
No.
He likes the under though.
But the plus 173, the others, no, the overs plus 173, I mean, the guys asking about
the under, they want to play the under, right?
But the under is now going to be like, what, minus 200 if the overs, like minus 223 for
the under.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Why would you do that?
Why would you, why would you harm yourself?
I do that every week day.
I harm myself every week with this.
Yeah.
Not with Omar and Hampton.
And if there was a matchup for him to throw two touchdowns, Miami is dead last in
the P.A. against the past, so this would be the matchup for him to potentially deliver
some efficiency counterpoint.
This is an Indianapolis team that's undergone obviously a lot of trades.
And I can't help but think that this is their Super Bowl.
Like this is their best chance to win a game the rest of the year.
They're at home, Miami starting a backup quarterback.
I can guarantee you that these coaches are doing everything they can to try and get another
notch in the win column.
And I almost wonder if Jonathan Taylor feels the same way.
He's probably realizing, you know what?
I'm here.
I don't know if he's going to play every game the rest of the season, but he's healthy.
He can help them win now.
I wonder if this is a game where the coaches leaned into Jonathan Taylor and he helps them
bring home a win against Miami.
Cool.
Cool.
All right.
See, I'll give you that.
Now see, you have two plays with the over one and a half touchdowns.
I'm going to have you.
Talk about both of them at once.
These teams happen to play each other last week and both of them, both quarterbacks hit this
number relatively easily.
Who you got and why?
Yeah.
I mean, okay.
We'll talk about Drake May 1st and then Jordan Love.
Drake Mays hit this in six straight.
And oh, by the way, Jordan Love's hit it in eight out of nine.
I'm not going to necessarily chase the box score here.
But I do think in this Drake May game, this is the one over in Germany on Sunday morning
against Detroit.
We're looking at a high scoring game.
We're looking at about 50.
And what's going on with the New England Patriots backfield?
I mean, I don't know if Ramondri's going to play.
It looks like it's trending that he's not going to play.
Maybe we'll see some Cory Conner, but I don't think it's going to be a very effective
running game.
And now what I will say is I don't think Drake May is going to be super efficient either.
I actually linked to his past attempts over in this game.
But I do think he's going to play some hero ball.
And he has been absolutely smashing these multiple touchdowns again for six games in a row.
So against Detroit, who you generally like to attack through the air.
You certainly don't want to attack them through that front with Cory Conner of all running
backs.
I like Drake May to get to two plus touchdowns yet again.
And now I'll go to the next one, Jordan Love, interesting matchup, but also an interesting
price.
He gets the Minnesota Vikings.
He gets them at home, mind you.
He did throw for two touchdown passes against the Vikings in week one.
And he's hit this in eight out of nine.
Ironically, the one he missed was against Dallas, but that's when they were up 17, nothing
in half time.
So maybe they throttled down a little bit here.
This one going to be a competitive game against an excellent, excellent defense.
This is a one dimensional Green Bay Packers team, which normally is a very bad thing.
But it's not if you're Jordan Love Christian Watts in Matthew Golden and perhaps a little
bit of Tucker craft.
Jordan Love, you're never going to get the price on this on Jordan Love, like in that
minus one 14 to minus 120 range.
It's always going to be minus 160 to minus 180, because that's how good he's playing.
I respect this Minnesota defense, but I think Jordan Love gets two touchdowns because they
are slated to get to 20 plus points.
None of those points, in my opinion, are going to come through the rushing attack.
Give me Jordan Love, two plus.
OK, so here's the interesting part about this.
Let's look at the flip side here.
Proper.
You have a quarterback play this week.
You don't usually give out a lot of quarterback plays.
This is an interesting one.
Kurt Cousins just got traded as we all know from the Raiders to the Vikings.
Before you give out your play, I want to ask Dave a season long question.
There's a lot of people that were trying to get bets in on Kurt Cousins to lead the
league in passing yards, because he's not having a buy week.
If he plays this week, he wouldn't have a buy week, that's 18 games, and he's about 270
yards give or take behind Joe Burrow.
That line was 22 to one earlier this week, and keeps shrinking.
Would you consider taking a stab on it at double digit odds?
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I get 20 to one or longer like that sexy and all that, but Kurt Cousins just has to be
a game manager.
This defense is going to limit all the teams to probably 17 or less the rest of the way
for the most part, so you're not getting those games that the Joe Burrows and some of these
other guys that are going to be piling up the yards are going to get.
This is the best defense in the league.
Kurt Cousins just needs to probably throw for like 200 yards of game and they're good.
That line has been hammered from 22 to one on Wednesday to 7 to one as we do this show.
Oh, forget it at 7 to one.
You can't write.
People saw this and figured, "Hey, he has an extra game.
Propy, what do we do with Kurt Cousins this week in Green Bay?"
Yeah, this is my favorite prop on the board this week, a massive position for me, multi-units.
I absolutely love this.
I had this penciled the moment that I learned that Kurt Cousins was being traded to Minnesota.
That is going to be fading Kurt Cousins under, I'm betting against the efficiency here.
Under 21 and a half passing completions, this one checks every box for me, every proverbial
box.
First of all, Kurt Cousins changing teams mid season.
We can expect the efficiency to drop off just because of that fact alone.
Then we should probably expect more given how big of a regression candidate Kurt Cousins
has been.
Got off to a really good start, but he has really cratered in recent weeks.
We were starting to see some real shaky performances from Kurt Cousins, but yeah, guess he's returning
to a system that he's familiar with, but literally less than a week to get up to speed here.
I just do not think they're going to overly expose Kurt Cousins, but really what I love
most about this, and this is an angle that I've been using to my benefit recently is just
how good this factor is, specifically the past defense has been number one in PFS coverage
grade.
Top five in literally every defensive passing metric.
This is such a difficult matchup against a Green Bay pass defense that has been truly
elite.
They just, the Vikings, we know we saw this early with Kyler Murray when Carson Wentz
was under center two.
They just do not want to overexpose a quarterback making his first start with the team here.
These numbers of Kurt Cousins, 21 and a half completions, is inflated as a result of playing
on a Raiders team that was continually playing catch up and trailing deficits.
And as a result, Cousins was just airing the ball out of turn.
I think the Vikings are going to be extremely balanced.
If we look at how teams are attacking Green Bay, they are a run funnel because teams are
avoiding this past defense because they are so sticky in coverage and it's the real
teeth of their defense.
So this one again checks all the proverbial boxes for me.
I like all of Cousins unders, but especially this 21 and a half completions again.
This is a multi-unit.
position for me. I probably made over 10 tickets on this so far personally, spreading my
action all across multiple sports books, betting this very proud.
Dave.
TJ Hockinson didn't practice on Friday. I don't believe he's practiced all week. This
would be one of those easy, short area targets for Kirk Hussins to lean on. And if he's
not playing, it's just going to make it harder for him to get 22 plus completions in the
game.
So, real quick, if you listen to, go ahead, see, there's something that really correlates
with this, but I love the TJ Hockinson note there too. I actually think we're finally
going to see almost in like a sharp in a priceway that we saw last week. I think we're finally
going to see the page turned from Aaron Jones to Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason, who by the way,
only started to get going in the middle of the third quarter when they were down seven
because for some reason it was just going to be the Aaron Jones show. And then when Jordan
Mason came in, we're like, Oh, maybe he should have been starting since, you know, the
first quarter. I think we're going to see Jordan Mason. I don't know about his effectiveness
necessarily, but I see big cheesy likes his rush yards over. I like his rushing attempts
over. It's 11 and a half right now. I'm actually because it's just to the under. I'm actually
kind of waiting for it to tick down to 10 and a half. I'm hoping that happens. In which
case, I'll be taking the over there as well.
Probably more things I want to touch out real quick on the bike. You stick on the
backers in week one. They were extremely run heavy, grand a different quarterback. But
again, that is how Kevin O'Connell decided the game plan was built around the run. I think
that's going to be the case, especially look at the Packers recent performance. They have
shut down Dak Prescott, right? He on Endrake May over the last three games. I mean, this
past defense has been exceptional. So I just don't see Kurt Cousins really here getting
thrown to the wolves, especially with the Vikings defense being as strong as it is, unless
they're down 14 to 17 points, I think Minnesota is going to be extremely balanced and mean
heavily towards the run here. Again, I absolutely love this fate of Kurt Cousins cannot emphasize
that point enough.
All right, if you're probably you used three buzzwords in that and I wrote them down. We heard
massive position multi-unit play and checks every box. That is a, that's what you need
to know.
These are all tickets on Kurt Cousins under completeness. Wow, that's incredible. That's insane.
That's insane. All right, you read it. This is a major opportunity right there on Kurt Cousins
under this. I can tell you is not a major opportunity, but I am ready for Uncle Dave's
reaction here. I'm 4-0 in the last four weeks and picking these kicker yard props, Uncle
Dave.
Yes, I love it.
Yes, I love it.
DG, you ready in the chat? You ready for this one?
Go.
I'm going with the Colts Dolphins over 138.5 field goal yards at minus 115. The Colts have
allowed 20 field goals more than two per game. Now the Dolphins, they got Zayn Gonzalez.
He's been reverted to the practice squad. He'll be back. He is five for seven in the last
two weeks, gotten seven field goal attempts. By the way, Spencer Schrader for the Colts tied
for the league lead and field goals. I think four field goals pushes this over. We're going
to try to go to 5-0 in the last five weeks. Some of them were unofficial plays because
Dave wouldn't let me make them official. But last week we hit it in the Cowboys game,
Cowboys Colts game. So we're going to go with the Spencer Schrader angle again and play
the Colts field goal yards over. Dave, any thoughts?
Yeah, I've got about 15 minutes worth of thoughts on this because I've studied it very
hard. But I see that we're sure on time. So I'm just going to go ahead and pause now and
not get into it. If you'd like to reach out to me on X, I'm sure you want to talk about
it's more kicker pro. Thank you as always. I got one. I got a bonus one for you guys.
This is a season long future. Who would you bet right now? The NFL rookie of the year
odds are bizarre at best. So I think Ben, if we have that and we can show that on screen,
these are wacky odds. Mendoza plus 275. Jonah Coleman, 5-1. Carl Tate's not even going
to play this week. 6-1. Denzel, Boston, 6-1. Concepts the own. 8-1. Carson, 10-1. Has
it even taken a snap? Proppy, go.
I studied these markets extremely heavily. And this is one that's very interesting to
me because Mendoza hasn't even played a game as worth of snaps. It's such a shame that
Carl Tate is not playing. He would be the only guy I have a position on Carl Tate. I
considered adding to him, especially if he was going to suit up. He was really coming
on strong prior to getting hurt. Was the clear engine of Tennessee's passing attack? Was
delivering really oppressive efficiency as the focal point of the passing attack, which
is impressive for a rookie in a low-volume passing offense? So Carl Tate really looks
good. It would be my pick, but obviously we don't know his health. Ultimately, if he's
able to get back by next week, I was really hoping that the by-week would heal Carl Tate.
I was watching his every report I could find on him extremely closely to see if we could
gain any additional knowledge regarding his injury status. So to me, it's Carl Tate
or nothing. Personally, I think he's already, if the voting ended today, it would be Carl
Tate. But again, we're projecting into the future here. But yeah, to me, it's Carl Tate.
It's really hard to make a compelling or convincing argument for anyone else as a bright
moment.
Dave.
No, I'm going to hear. So the key word, the key phrase that prop stars just ended there
with was as of right now, because guess what? In two months, Jonah Coleman's going to
look like a complete beast. And oh, by the way, this Denver team that nobody likes is going
to have a silly record because look at who they play. They play, the Raiders coming up
off of their buy. They play the Steelers. That's kind of tough. Then the Dolphins, then
the Jets, then the Raiders again, then the bills you can rush on, the Patriots and then,
excuse me, the Patriots and then the chargers. This is such an easy schedule. So as Jonah
Coleman is cementing himself as the RB one and as the record is getting better, the voters
are going to attribute maybe more than they should to Jonah Coleman. He's going to be
the guy. I actually love this plus 500 number.
I do too. Usually there's a correlation between who wins these awards and the record of
their teams. And it's rare when it's a player on a team that's losing as many games as
the Titans are losing. So that makes me pause a little bit on carnal tape. He's going
to need to have amazing numbers in order to come through as the rookie of the year. Before
the season, that was a lot easier to envision him getting those monster numbers. But now
that he's hurt, I'm with you, proper rule. I thought that he'd come back from the buy
and just pick up where he left off. That hasn't been the case. See him mentioned it. You
look at Denver's record. Jonah Coleman is their lead running back. The Broncos did not
add another running back. I don't see them adding another running back at five to one.
That's not too shabby for Jonah Coleman. But I can't overlook. And I know this is nuts.
But 30 to one on Jordan Tyson. I know that he's given what like 400 500 yards of a lead
way to Denzel Boston carnal tape case. He can set she own. But if he can say all the
and that's a 30 to one size diff. And if the Saints can get back into their race in the NFC
South, I could see Jordan Tyson making a compelling case to be the rookie of the year.
Kind of the same way that Jonah Coleman, Jonah Coleman doesn't even have 200 rushing
arts this year. It's all about what these guys do from here on. And if the Browns win
their division, if the Browns win their division, I think Denzel Boston is your rookie of
the year.
It has to be the weakest offensive rookie of the year crop. We've seen it a long time.
Do you remember last year?
Uh, uh, no, that's a good point. I don't have Nick Mullen. He was, but he was easy.
He was easy. I mean, he's a U of A guy. Of course he was going to win.
Do you remember who had a massive position on tent Nick Mullen last year this time?
You, you know, yep. And now you have a massive position on carnal tape. All right.
I don't know. I do not have a massive position. Are you would do that one right now?
No, I would not, I would, yeah, the ministerial position on carnal tape. This is a market.
I love betting. Uh, and I've wanted to, uh, make a bigger position. It is such an underwhelming
class. And there's no clear cut guy. Everybody has, uh, just, yeah, you can make a, uh, really
strong argument. There's just, it's a complete toss up. Essentially is what I'm getting at.
See, we need to start coming up with the opposite for all of propies buzzwords. So massive position,
minuscule position. Yeah. I like that. I like what's the opposite of nuclear? Um, some sort of like,
you know, some Iranian, yeah, something like that, you know, frozen comes and just freezes your
face right in front of you. I think, I think propie will have a subterranean position on my kicker
prop this week. All right, we'll move on here and get to the recap screen and see what we have
here. All right, propie, start us off with your five plays, what you got.
Crystal Lava over 73 and a half receiving yards facing a very underman, panthers, second
barrier. I think the entire Saints passing offense find success. Like you know, Lava continues
to thrive as the engine of that. Command raw St. Brown over 78 and a half receiving yards,
lions in Germany against the Patriots, Patriots, nickel corner, Marcus Jones has been a massive
liability. Um, on raw is going to show is going to shine in this matchup. George Kittle over 61
and a half receiving yards. He has been the downfield threat for San Francisco's highly efficient
passing offense, facing a doubt.
defense with a 55 point total, Chubah Hubbard delivering elite efficiency on massive usage facing
the same defense. 29th and EPA allowed for rush. Love him to go for over 75 and a half Russian yards.
And my biggest position, Kirk Cousins under 21 and a half completions. This one checks every
proverbial box for me. See you coming off a three and a half last week. Got that record for
14 and 12 who you got with your four plays this week. I do want to mention Gipper's picks in
the chat says pretty will go over 256 and a half passing notes. I actually like that as well.
And I do want to mention David Montgomery. It appears that he fully practiced today. I know we
talked a lot about that Houston game. So that that certainly matters. I wanted to point that out.
I've got Jim Ray DK over 21 and a half receiving arts minus 122. I'd be willing to lie out of that
one to 30 to 40. Zach Charbonne over 60 and a half Russian yards minus 114. And I put that out
on sports line a couple of days ago at 58 and a half. I'd played as high as 62 maybe 63 and a half
Drake May over one and a half touchdown passes minus 130 and Jordan love against Minnesota over
one and a half touchdown passes at minus 114. David, a couple of props you really like here. What
are they? Malig Washington over three and a half receptions minus 113. Quinshawn Judkins under
43 and a half Russian. It's also minus 113. And I am going with the proppy subterranean play of the
cold-stolphins under 138 and a half field goal yards are going. Konata month field over 25 and a half
receiving yards minus 125 and Dylan Samson over 43 and a half Russian plus receiving yards
at minus 114. Proppy, what's your favorite play on the board? Not of your own.
Yeah, I mean taking a player prop in the cold-stolphins game takes Massacre Honeys taking my
kicker prop in the cold-stolphins game takes something else I can't even say on air. So it's definitely
going to be the kicker prop. No, I'm just kidding easy. It's Malig Washington over three and a half
receptions. I love this. I'd love to see his Antonio Williams fade which he cashed last night.
I love this Malig Washington look a lot as well. This is going to end up on my betting card.
It's a great spot. Yeah, I think that is such a runaway for me personally. Love that look.
See what's your favorite prop on the board? Not of your own. Sadly, by the way, I do rev course
every prime time game and Antonio Williams reverse correlation actually hit yesterday, but I didn't
do it on him at least. My favorite one, I'll just pick one here. I like Chris Olave. I think that
over 73 and a half receiving yards. I think that game against Carolina is going to be a bit of a
shootout. I like the Hubbard play. I think I think I think Coker could have a good game, but I like
Chris Olave over 73 and a half receiving yards. Uncle Dave, what do you got? I have a lot. First
of all, see a set. I only like one any named like four. Second of all, there's an update from
the Texans that Daniel Hunter, Aziz al-Shayir and Guard Keelan Rutledge are out Sunday versus the
Bronx. That does make the match up a lot easier for Cleveland and a little bit harder for Houston.
Marvin Harrison's also happened. Nobody really cares about that. That doesn't make a difference
in the game whatsoever. So it does make me put a little pause on the Quincheon Judkins under.
I think I would take it, but I think I'd move it to like a half unit, something like that, a quarter
of a unit,.38 of a unit, something along those lines. I also love the Olave over. I think you could
have triple digits in yardage. I think that's a great card. You guys have this week. I mean,
property. I pretty much like all five of those. See, I mean, I can't even choose a favorite.
You guys have talked me in and I know that's a cop-out answer, but if I were to pick one,
Olave DK, I really like to see. I think that's a good look. Dave, the Browns offensive line
stinks. It's terrible, but you know what? It's not just the Nile Hunter. Will Anderson is
questionable. So those are like not just the two best pass rushers for the Texans. That's easy
to say. They're like two of the best edge rushers in the NFL. Will Anderson. Go ahead. Go, Alex.
Will Anderson is far in a way. The odds on Panther can win the defensive player of the year.
Yeah. So he still might play. I don't believe he practiced on Friday. So we'll see what happens
there, but this makes the matchup significantly easier for Cleveland. It's certainly to stay in the
game and keep it competitive. Like I think it was Sia who said that earlier in the show.
I did as well. I think the blonde Sia is what I meant.
Yeah. I think Cleveland's going to be competitive in this game. Okay. I mean, Cleveland's
to their credit has been competitive a lot more than I think a lot of people expected.
No, no, no. So I think Todd Munkin deserves a lot of credit.
Well, guys, another great show. You guys in the chat were awesome. Thank you for all the questions
and comments today, Ben, behind the scenes. Always, always the best. For Sia,
propian Uncle Dave, I mean see. And as I always like to say, let's hit it big. Good luck.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Proppy recommends betting on Chris Olave over 73.5 receiving yards due to elite usage and a vulnerable Panthers defense with multiple injuries.
Malik Washington is a strong pick over 3.5 catches in Miami vs. Indianapolis, as the Colts’ coverage flaws and McCord’s quick-release style favor short-area targets.
Jim Rae DK over 21.5 yards is backed for Jacksonville due to a favorable matchup and high potential for deep gains despite a strong defense.
George Kittle over 61.5 yards is highlighted in the 49ers vs. Cowboys game, citing a high-scoring environment and efficient offensive play.
Zack Sharbinay is favored over 61 rushing yards against the Raiders due to a weak run defense and expected game script.
Chuba Hubbard is projected for a breakout week against the Saints, with elite efficiency and workload amid a favorable matchup.
Kurt Cousins is strongly backed under 21.5 completions in Minnesota due to a tough Green Bay defense and a likely drop in efficiency post-trade.
A debate arises over whether EC’s pre-game text declaring a loss on O'Marian Hampton’s 32-yard run counts as a forfeit, raising questions about prop rules and equity.
Summary:
The Week 10 NFL Player Prop Show features a deep analysis of key player props across multiple matchups. 5 yards due to his elite performance and the Panthers’ decimated secondary. Malik Washington is favored in Miami with a strong short-area target play against the Colts’ vulnerable coverage.
Jim Rae DK and George Kittle are also backed for high-yield receiving plays, while Zack Sharbinay and Chuba Hubbard are selected for their matchups against poor defenses. A central debate centers on whether a pre-game text declaring a loss on a player’s play counts as a forfeit, raising questions about prop integrity. 5 completions against Green Bay, citing defensive strength and expected regression.
The discussion also touches on trade dynamics, player injuries, and value in off-the-radar names like Carl Tate. Prop rules, especially around forfeits and reverse jinxes, are scrutinized, with participants emphasizing equitable outcomes. The show emphasizes value, matchup efficiency, and risk mitigation in player prop selections, concluding with a strong focus on underdog and situational plays rather than big-name favorites.
FAQs
The validity of a win is debated when a player claims defeat before the outcome. In this case, EC claimed to have lost before Hampton's 32-yard run, but the prop master, Alex Selznick, ruled it was an unintentional reverse jinx. Ultimately, the decision hinges on whether the claim was binding and whether a formal ruling is needed.
Chris Olave is the top pick, with a strong case for going over 73.5 receiving yards. He’s had elite usage, a top-10 season in advanced metrics, and faces a decimated Panthers secondary with multiple injuries.
Malik Washington is favored due to his short-area targets, matchup with a weak Colts coverage, and increased workload. The Dolphins are expected to use quick passes, and Washington has a high target rate on throws under 2.5 seconds.
No, Caleb Douglas is not recommended. While he has downfield ability, the pick is considered risky. Malik Washington is seen as a safer, more consistent option with better volume and target share.
George Kittle is the focal point of the 49ers’ passing attack, especially with injuries to other receivers. The Cowboys’ secondary is weakened, and the game is expected to be a shootout, giving Kittle a high chance of significant yardage.
Zack Sharbinay is favored due to the Raiders’ poor rush defense and a neutral-to-positive game script. He’s expected to get 13–15 carries and accumulate over 61 rushing yards in a game where the Seahawks are likely to run heavily.
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