NFL Player Props Podcast - Week 1

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Sitting in crowded waiting rooms. Standing in line at the pharmacy. That's painful. Amazon One Medical and Amazon Pharmacy remove those painful parts of getting better. With things like 24-7 virtual visits. And prescriptions delivered to your door. Thanks to Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon One Medical. Self-care just got less painful. Welcome everyone to the NFL Props Podcast. Here on RJ Bell's Dream Preview. I'm your host, Munaf Manj. You can find me on Twitter at SportsNerd824. And we're back at it for year two. Of the NFL Props show here. Definitely excited. With the NFL season upon us officially. We had our first game on Thursday night. Got a game in Brazil on Friday night. And getting in of course to the main show on Sunday week one. And of course we're back at it here. And joining me of course on this episode. The man of mystery. Everybody's been asking for him. And I think they're tired of my voice. But it's Sleepy J. Sleepy how's it going my man? How you doing? I'm glad to be back. I'm glad that a couple people were asking about me. I mean I'm getting tired of your voice too. So hopefully I can sit down and enjoy myself. Listen to this podcast tonight. See how good of a job that I do. But yeah man. This was a podcast last year that we had a lot of fun on. And we did really well on this podcast last year. There aren't many prop podcasts out there in this space. I think that what we do is we try to distill this down to the best positions. And the best props that we can find. So we're going to give you guys a quarterback prop. Wide receiver, running back, tight end. And then Munaf and I again are going to go ahead and give you guys our agreed upon prop for Sunday. So I think we're going to do well again. We had a three-man team last year. Steve took up coaching. One of his kids. So that's a good thing. So Steve won't be on the pod this year. So it's just myself, Munaf. So it will be a little bit tighter, a little bit faster. But the winners are still going to be there. I'm quite sure of that. Yeah, we got a lot of tweets as of actually today asking if we're doing a props pod. But here we are for this season. And like Sleepy mentioned, unfortunately Steve decided to take up coaching here. But he'll surely be missed. We'll have some rotating guests throughout the season on the pod here. You expect at least mainly myself and Sleepy on this podcast. Sleepy, let's not waste any time. Let's get into it here. We'll do it how we did last year. We'll start with our quarterback props and we'll work our way from there. I'll let you lead it off. Where are you taking us for your quarterback prop? All right. First winner of NFL Week No. 1 we're giving out here on the podcast. We're going with Patriots quarterback Drake May. We're going to play him over 214.5 passing yards. Realistically, last season Drake May played 10 full games. He went over this number in six of those games last year. And he didn't have Stephon Diggs to go ahead and throw the football to last year. And I think that Diggs will be a pretty big help to this offense. At least I think he'll help reduce some stress for Drake May. And probably maybe draw a little bit of extra coverage that Drake May wasn't used to seeing last year. I like the fact that the Patriots are going to open up here at home. I also like the fact that they bring in a new head coach in variable. They still have Josh McDaniels as their OC. So I think that'll be okay. I know that they like to go ahead and run. But I think this Patriots team is going to look to go ahead and start the season out with a little bit of flash. They now bring in Diggs. They have May. Honestly, I thought he had a half-decent year last year. But I think he's going to take probably a pretty big leap there this year. At least that's what I'm projecting. And we know the Raiders. We know their defense isn't good. I mean, their defensive line is good, given that. But the back end, it's not very good at all. They have one of the weakest linebacker, cornerback, safety cores in the entire league. I think that Drake May and the Patriots are going to be able to go ahead and throw the football in this one. So I'm going to go ahead. I'm going to play him over 214.5 passing yards there, Munoz. Yeah, I like it. I think that this is going to be a season where we do see this Patriots offense take a step forward. Because they've struggled, right? Let's be frank. Since the Tom Brady era, I know Mac Jones had a pretty good rookie year when he was with the Patriots. But it just feels like that, especially at the skill positions, this team has really suffered at the wide receiver spots post the Tom Brady era. And now, like you mentioned, they bring in Stephon Diggs to this offense. Demario Douglas has been making flashes in training camp and in preseason. So hopefully two viable options there for a guy like Drake May. And we're not asking him to get a whole heck of a lot of yards here against his regular secondary. Also, I feel like I have questions about coming into this season here as well. So, yeah, I like to play him for Drake May. Hopefully he takes a step forward in this offense for the Patriots. My quarterback prop here. I'm going to go with the number one overall pick, Cam Ward, who will go under on his passing yards for this week number one matchup against the Denver Broncos. And historically, we've seen the number one overall picks who have been quarterbacks. They've struggled a bit in their first start, especially when they're just kind of throwing into the fire. Right. I mean, you've seen guys come in over the past decade plus that number one overall pick. You're going to get the keys of the offense and you're going to be our quarterback. But it just hasn't panned out. Let's go back to last season. Caleb Williams in his first start only had ninety three passing yards the year before Bryce Young, one hundred and forty six passing yards. Trevor Lawrence had a fantastic debut against the Texans. Three hundred and thirty two passing yards. Joe Burrow, one ninety three. Kyler Murray three away. Baker Mayfield two oh one and Jared Goff one thirty four. So that goes back about the span of seven years. The number right now for Cam Ward in his first start here against the Denver Broncos was sitting at one ninety four and a half. Let me get the updated number here. It's down to one ninety two and a half. So I'll give you that. There's still a one ninety four and a half right now out there at MGM. But it's also predicated here on how great this past defense and the defense overall was for the Denver Broncos last season. I mean, they finished in the top and a lot of the team defensive categories last season. I think that's what they're going to continue priding themselves on this upcoming year for this Denver Broncos team. Yes, Bo Nix was absolutely fantastic in his rookie campaign. But I think a lot of it here for this defense or this team is going to be on the defensive side of the football. They were top seven in total yards allowed per game at three hundred and seventeen per game. They only allowed two hundred and twenty point seven passing yards per game, especially a division where you have Patrick Mahomes. You have Justin Herbert in that division there that they see twice a year. So I'm expecting at least in week one, a slow start for Cam Ward here. Sleepy, especially with Calvin Ridley. I think he gets limited, especially with if Patrick Sertans can be shadowing him all afternoon there in Denver and in the Mile High City. So I'll go. Cam Ward, number one overall pick to go under in his passing yards. Yeah, I don't mind this pick. I think that this is probably going to be a good game for Cam Ward to learn how to go ahead and and deal with a lot of adversity because Denver's defense is really good. This kid's got to go on the road. It's not going to be an easy game for him. So there's a good chance that he can end up getting his rear end kicked. But one of the reasons why I like this play here with you is because why are you going to throw your number one pick, the guy that you're drafting for your entire future, and go out there and throw him to the wolves against a defense like this on the road and have him go out there and get really discouraged? So I would actually look towards Titans running backs in this game versus the quarterback. There's a chance I'd just go out there and say, look, let's just go out there, keep you alive, keep you clean. Go out there and hand the football off, see if we can hang around in this game and just not not have anything really negative happen, at least mentally for Cam Ward. I think it'll be OK, but I don't there's no way you can go in and get me on a rookie quarterback and week one on the road against one of the top three defense is not going to do it. Yeah, I think that's exactly what it is. Right. It's it's a it's his first start on the road against one of the top defense. So I think that'll be at least a tough spot for him. I think it'll be great for the future of this franchise here, but at least for week one, I think it might be tough sledding here. All right. So those are our quarterback props. Just to recap, I have Cam Ward under one hundred and ninety two and a half passing yards and sleep is going. Drake may over two hundred fourteen and a half passing yards. Let's move to the running back prop here for week one. Where are you taking us? All right. I was curious what your thoughts are on this pick there, Manoff, because as I was breaking this one down, I'm like, Manoff, probably have some pretty decent thoughts on this one. So I'm going to go with Jaguars running back tank Bigsby. I'm going to go and I'm going to play him over his rushing yards of forty three and a half. I think that this is the year where Etienne finally takes the backseat to Bigsby in this Jaguars offense. Bigsby last year, he ended up split in touches with Etienne, but he still got, you know, maybe it was like a dozen or so more Etienne had, but it wasn't like he completely outtouched Bigsby. Etienne was more relied on in third down. I'm not sure that that's going to be the case there this year, this Jaguar offense. I think it's going to be much better. And I think that Bigsby has to realize, like, this is his chance to be a number one running back in this league, to go out there and get a good contract, you know, for the rest of his life. I mean, this could pan out for the rest of his life. So I think he's going to run smart. I think he's going to run tough this entire year. And the only thing that worries me about this particular play is that the Jaguars offensive line is not very good. But the Panthers rush defense, it was far and away the worst in the entire league last year. I know they brought a couple of pieces in, but they're not going to be much better. I mean, this could still be a bottom five rush defense in the league. You bring in Hunter, you got Lawrence, you got Thomas. I think that that will probably back up Carolina's defense a little bit because there's now a couple other threats out there. So I think Bigsby's going to take the keys there, especially in game one at home. I think he comes out here looking to go ahead and just be the best he can be. And that's going to get him over to 43.5 rushing yards. And don't forget, you got a head coaching change too. So the whole Doug Peterson experience, that involved a lot of ETN. I just feel like this is his year. This is a big year for him. I think if you picked him up in fantasy, this is a guy you're going to be happy maybe to have on your bench that you could plug in as a starter week to week. So that's where I'm at with him. What were your thoughts? Yeah, I think you're spot on here. You take a look at going back to last season for Tank Bigsby, the final five games that he did play. He had double-digit rush attempts in those games, and he was the leading rushing yards leader for this Jacksonville Jaguars team at 766 yards on 168 carries in 16 games that he did play. 4.6 yards per carry. Compare that to Travis Etienne at 3.7 yards only. So almost about a yard more per carry was Tank Bigsby getting for this offense. And you mentioned the defense there for the Carolina Panthers, especially their rush defense. I mean, it was probably historically bad last year where they gave up close to 180 rushing yards per game on the ground. Just to put that into perspective, Sleepy, the second-worst team was the New Orleans Saints, who gave up 38 yards less per contest compared to the Carolina Panthers. So I'm not sure they improved that much defensively did the Carolina Panthers, but I could see a world here, Sleepy, where Tank Bigsby does get more snap counts and more carries than Travis Etienne in this matchup here. And again, you mentioned Liam Cohen coming over as the head coach of this Jacksonville Jaguars team. We saw last year that they really reutilized the two running backs in Bucky Irving and also Rashad White last season. So I think there might be a split carries here for both Tank Bigsby and also Travis Etienne. I think when it comes down to who I trust more in the running game, I'd be with you on Tank Bigsby here. So I think this is a very buy-low situation. Again, if he does go out and have a game where he has 50, 60, 70 yards, this number is just going to skyrocket in Week 2, and this is where we're going to capitalize on it, especially in Week 1. Speaking of Bucky Irving, that's where I'm going to go with my running back prop. And I'm going to go for his longest rush attempt to go over 15.5 yards in this game. This one is a little bit juiced at minus 125 right now for Bucky Irving, but I think it's going to be clear-cut that he's going to be the number one guy in that backfield for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. I know Rashad White was dealing with some type of injuries in training camp and in practice, but he seems like he'll be ready to go. But I do expect Bucky Irving to be the RB1 for this team. team this upcoming season and let's go back to last season, right? What you take a look at the splits for this the running back room of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I mean he only had in Bucky Irving 207 carries in 17 games that he played last season that equated to 1122 rushing yards on the ground 5.4 yards per carry for for Bucky Irving and if you take a look at last season after their bye week Bucky Irving really took over as that RB1 and in six of those eight games after their bye week and this also includes the playoff game in the NFC wildcard game against the commanders where they did lose 2320 six of those eight games he had a longest rush attempt of at least 16 yards or more and some of these weren't even close 25 34 54 43 56 and now you're going against an Atlanta Falcons team where he did have success against his team last season on the ground and I think that continues here I think they lean on him a little bit more in this game especially with all the wide receiver injuries as his Buccaneers team has right now we know the Jalen McMillan's and the Chris Godwin's we're gonna be out for an extended amount of time and that leaves you you know Mike Evans and and I think they're gonna have to rely on Bucky Irving both in the running game and also in the passing game here but I think you can break one out at least I would expect him to get anywhere from 17 to 20 carries in this game here sleepy so I'll take his longest rush attempt to go over 15 and a half yards in this game all right well I don't have a pick on this one but I will say this I'm not against your guy but I'm also not against Rashad white and the reason I say that is because I was betting him before he hit his pinnacle so I I made money with Rashad white so I don't want to just go ahead and completely throw him in the trash but I have to say this is Bucky Irving's the better of the two I actually think that this is going to look similar to when like Raheem Mostert was backing up all the star players that he was like that's gonna be the role that Rashad white's gonna take this is gonna be Bucky Irving's offense so I would be with you before I be against you but I'm not throwing any any shade on Rashad white cuz dude was good to me so gotta give him his flowers all right so those are running back props there for week one and again just to recap those sleepy's going with Tate Bigsby of the Jacksonville Jaguars over 43 and a half rushing yards and I am taking Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving longest rush attempt over 15 and a half yards for the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons all right let's keep it moving here sleeping let's get over to our wide receiver props for week one where are you taking us I'm taking you to Pittsburgh I think there's a lot of variants in this one but I'm gonna go ahead I'm gonna play Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin I'm gonna go ahead I'm gonna play him over 23 and a half receiving yards I'm a diehard Packer fan saw Brett Favre's years saw Aaron Rodgers years and I've continued to watch Aaron Rodgers even after his departure from Green Bay Austin last year he was the Steelers third most targeted player I kind of don't think that that's gonna change for the worse at least at least I'm hoping not he might end up being the Steelers number two and the reason I say that you know talking about Rodgers is that Rodgers is getting older Rodgers is getting slower he wants to get rid of that ball as fast as possible he was doing that when he was in Green Bay and it started to become faster and faster as he was with the Jets he was just like I got to get rid of the football and he's it and if you if there's too much time for him back there he doesn't want to be here he's just gonna chuck it in the dirt he's gonna throw it in the stands gonna get rid of the ball so I think that this is a different type of offense probably a different type of feeling I think Rodgers is gonna look to go ahead and get to Calvin Austin quite a bit he's their slot wide receiver he's gonna be the guy that can get open very very quickly and I think Rodgers is gonna look to that I know that they got DK Metcalf and look I don't think there's a problem with DK at all but here's the issue I think with DK Metcalf in this particular offense he's got to get deep Aaron Rodgers is not gonna wait for DK Metcalf to go in and get deep how can you get DK open well you're gonna you have to use the rushing attack or use your slot wide receiver get some passes out as quick as possible and get those guys to kind of cheat up and then go and look for DK a little bit later after there's some space to kind of beat them and I think Rodgers will be comfortable you know doing that you're not gonna see Aaron Rodgers drop him back looking for the deep ball it's just not gonna happen he's gonna get rid of the ball quickly I think that involves wide receiver Calvin Austin so I'm gonna go down play him over to 23 and a half receiving yards look he can come out just because we don't know this Pittsburgh team with Aaron Rodgers there's a chance Austin doesn't even get a catch or if he does drop one that Aaron Rodgers never throws him another ball the rest of the year we don't know it's a high variance play but the one thing that I do know Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to be hit and he likes getting rid of the ball fast so I'm gonna go ahead target the slot receiver here in Calvin Austin and this could be a prop where Calvin Austin gets it done in one catch right because he's been that type of guy for the Steelers offense dating back to last season I mean you take a look at some of his longest receptions from last year 55 36 29 46 23 31 44 and 25 yards last season that wildcard game yes it wasn't Aaron Rodgers as a quarterback for this Steelers team of course but it just takes one catch for Calvin Austin he's gonna be the speed guy and he has been that speed guy for the Steelers offense over the past several seasons so maybe the targets won't be there but again if I think if he gets three to four targets he gets over this number here so I think that that like you mentioned with DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers I think it'll still be a work in progress as the season progresses here because again you have a brand new quarterback of course and Rogers you have DK Metcalf coming over from the Seattle see us Seattle Seahawks where he spent of course the the first X amount of years with that team and a new coordinator new offensive system but with the one constant guy has been Calvin Austin for this Pittsburgh Steelers team so again like I mentioned if we if we see in the first quarter he already has a reception of 25 yards and you get that to the window and cash in the first quarter so I'd be with you on this one for Calvin Austin and again that defensive attention is gonna be on DK Metcalf right well there's gonna be sauce Gardner you know lining up across DK Metcalf I think that opens up opportunities for these other guys on the Steelers here so yeah I like it all right for my court sorry by a wide receiver prop here for week one we'll go back to the Jacksonville Jaguars side of things and Brian Thomas jr. he was an absolute stud down the stretch last season for this Jacksonville Jaguars team and I'm gonna take his yardage to go over 74 and a half in this game against the Carolina Panthers and I think we're just gonna continue fading this defense here of the Carolina Panthers until they prove it to us how good they actually are you know we mentioned Liam Cohen coming over for this head coaching job at the Jacksonville Jaguars the departure of Doug Peterson there so you know we saw the success that Baker Bayfield had we saw the success that the wide receivers had last season Mike Evans getting another thousand yard season under his belt to continue that streak Chris Godwin when he was healthy was flourishing in the offense as well for this Buccaneers team and I think now that you at least have an adult in the room to run this offense and Brian Thomas jr. I think it's gonna end up as a top four top five fantasy wide receiver this season I don't think there's a question about that barring injury of course but you take a look what he did down the stretch last season in the final eight weeks of the regular season he had 76 or more receiving yards in all seven of those games he had four games in the final four weeks where he finished with 90 or more receiving yards and he finished the season in six straight weeks we had double-digit targets from the quarterback there I know Trevor Lawrence got injured after that Texans game and Mac Jones was looking for Brian Thomas jr. but I think that's something Trevor Lawrence I will be looking out for in this game here and frankly throughout the season where Brian Thomas jr. there so he has big play capabilities you take a look at some of his longest receptions I mean they've been flying over he could get this done in about four catches something that we saw similar to what CD lamb was able to do against the Eagles on Thursday night there but I have Brian Thomas you know on a couple of my fantasy team so I'm hoping he gets off to a fast start here the numbers currently sitting at 74 and a half that's pretty much consensus here for Brian Thomas jr. so I'll expect him to have a big week one here against the Carolina Panthers in that Puget defense they're sleepy so give me Brian Thomas jr. over 74 and a half receiving yards all right so this makes me feel all warm and fuzzy to be honest with you one I'm talking about pigs we got like him over you're talking about Thomas you like him over I went ahead and went off and I I put my survivor pick in early and I played the Jaguars believe it or not which I don't think anybody is going to do I think it's going to be probably one of the least amount of teams that are picked this week but I feel like why not they're at home against the bad team you're not going to be able to go ahead and burn the Jaguars probably in many spots this year so I'm going to go ahead and do that as far as Thomas is concerned I don't have a problem with this play but here's my thing I didn't watch a lot of Jacksonville last year because they were just they were a rough watch and I know Thomas turned it on last year this is one of the reasons why I love you know being around the brightest minds is that well maybe you saw him maybe you you think that he is a top four or five wide receiver in the league this year me right now I don't know I can't even answer that question do I when I look at like the fantasy draft board and I see him going as high as he's going I'm sitting there scratching my head going is this dude that good I need to go watch tape so I need to go ahead and do more work so it's great that you're going ahead and you're going out here and you're giving them out but for me right now I'm on the fence so I would go with what you're saying before you know what my actual thoughts are which I don't know if this dude's that good so I would be more inclined to stay away from him which is probably wrong against this defense so I hope the fantasy dudes are right I hope you're right here I they're I mean they're going up against the right defense for him to have a big big game so I'd be with you before I be against you yeah just a bit of perspective last season I believe Brian Thomas jr. did finish top I believe it was top five as far as receiving yards and again maybe a lot of that did come in garbage time where they were trailing in games and had to throw the football but it almost seems like it was just a one trick pony last season for the offense of the Jaguar especially at the wide receiving position and I'll wrap it up with this yeah he did finish up number three behind Jamar chase Justin Jefferson as far as receiving yards 87 receptions on 133 targets 1282 receiving yards he also had double digit touchdowns last season for the Jacksonville Jaguar so hopefully that continues this season here for Brian Thomas jr. 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The Jack Welch Management Institute at Strayer University helps you go from, I know the way, to I've arrived with our top ten ranked online MBA. Gain skills you can learn today and apply tomorrow. Get ready to go from make it happen to made it happen and keep striving. Visit Strayer.edu slash Jack Welch MBA to learn more. Strayer University is certified to operate in Virginia by Chevron as many campuses including at 2121 15th Street North in Arlington, Virginia. All right, so let's get into our tight end props here for the week one schedule. Where are you taking us for your tight end prop? I'm going with Giants tight end Theo Johnson over 23 and a half yards. I've given out a handful of overs and I think that there's a lot of variance in a lot of these picks, but I also think in week one, you could be completely right and look good or you could be completely wrong and look bad. And I know that I've given out Calvin Austin, that's one that couldn't go really wrong. And I think that this one could go really wrong too, but I also think that they could go really right. And it's not necessarily like I'm betting on the player. I'm also looking at the quarterbacks in those particular situations. And with Theo Johnson, he's the Giants new tight end and he has Russell Wilson as quarterback. Well, Russell Wilson has always liked his tight ends in his career. I thought when he went to Pittsburgh, the tight end targets might go ahead and drop off a little bit. But Pat Fryermuth, the Steelers tight end, he was the second most targeted Steeler and Russell Wilson was throwing him the football, you know, quite a bit. Kind of like Rogers, Russell Wilson getting older, doesn't want to be hit. And I think that he's going to look to his tight end in this one. I'm sure he's going to look for neighbors and stuff like that. But this just feels like one of those situations where Russell Wilson looks towards the tight end. The only real worry I have with the tight end situation with the Giants right now is the fact that they bring Dulich over from Denver, who knows Russell Wilson. So there's a little bit of a concern there for me. But I think that the tight end gets used up here in this Giants offense. I'm going to go out and play Theo Johnson over 23 and a half receiving yards. It's going to give teams a little bit of a different look there this year when they see the Giants on the field. that's at least competent because they haven't had one. I mean, Bellinger was half decent, but he wasn't good. I think this kid's much, much better. So I think Wilson throws at him, tries to avoid getting hit, doing anything crazy. So I'm going to go. I'm going to play his yards over. That feels more like a dart throw there, Manoff. Like I said, he could get crushed on this one. But I also think that this could be one of the premier tight ends in the league, especially with a quarterback like Wilson, who we know actually likes tight ends. So that's where I'm going. Yeah, exactly. Russell Wilson that loves his tight ends. And I think this is an opportunity again to 23 and a half. You could get it done in a couple of catches here as well for Theo Johnson. And when you talk about the Giants offense, right, of course, Malik neighbors, who's already dealing with some type of back tightness, he says he's going to be good to go. But there could be some limitations there and maybe not as many snaps from Malik neighbors in this game as we're probably used to seeing in this rookie year, at least for week one. Maybe they want to be a little bit of cautious and that opens up opportunities for some of these other guys. And hopefully that is Theo Johnson here. So and we're not asking for a whole heck of a lot here from Theo Johnson, right? We're not asking him to get 40, 50 plus yards. We're just asking him to get 24 or more for us in this game here against the commanders here. So I think the Giants may be a little bit live here, at least keeping this game competitive. I know the spread is six right now with the Giants in this division game here. But with Russell Wilson there, he likes to spread the ball around, especially again, he likes to favor those tight ends as well. So I think that he can get this done here with Theo Johnson. So I'd be with you here on this prop here for your tight end. All right. For my tight end prop, I mentioned this earlier. I'm going to David and Joku over 47 and a half receiving yards in this matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Consensus right now is 40. There's a 47 and a half right now over on Fandle, but right now it's moving towards 49 and a half. I'll give it out at that 49 and a half. Let's go back to when Joe Flacco was the quarterback for this Browns team in that month of December back in the 2023 season. That was a season in the stretch where David and Joku really benefited as Joe Flacco being the quarterback under center. Nine targets per game in those five games as Joe Flacco as the quarterback. 78 receiving yards per game in those contests for David and Joku as a quarterback or as Joe Flacco as a quarterback. I also finished with four total touchdowns in that span there as well. And in those three games where Joe Flacco was the starting quarterback in home games, David and Joku finished up with 91 receiving yards, 104 and then 134 against the New York Jets in the final game of the regular season. Who are they playing this week? The Cincinnati Bengals. We know aren't going to be playing a lot of defense this season because I think that's something that they really didn't address the offseason, right? They locked up their wide receivers. I know they got the extension done with Trey Hendrickson, but I think that secondary is going to be a big problem for the Cincinnati Bengals team and they're going to be in a lot of high scoring games. And I don't expect Kevin Stefanski to come out and just run the football here because I'm not sure there's a whole heck of a lot of confidence in that running back room for the Cleveland Browns. So let's just get Joe Flacco where he's still fresh. He's not her. Let's come out here and have him throw the football and hopefully it is to David and Joku in this game here. So the numbers at 49 and a half right now, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets his done in the first half, but I think that he has a big week this week in this week, one matchup against a division opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals, whose defense leaves a lot to be desired here to say the least here, sleepy. So I'll go with David and Joku over 49, 49 and a half receiving yards. Yeah. I like this one. No joke. It was one of my favorite tight ends in the league. I think over the last couple of years, he's really grown on me, use them a lot in fantasy and to put them in a lot of player props, the guys are just, he's good. I think one of the things that, uh, I don't want to say that people fail to realize, but he's a tough matchup cause he's huge. He's a big dude. He's athletic. He kind of reminds me of like Gronkowski, but just more athletic. Like he can go ahead. He's got a lot more speed, so he's just a tough matchup. And why are you going to go away from the dude that always produces for you? So I would, uh, I would be with you on this one. I like in Joku as well. That kind of goes right into the play that you and I agree on, which is a Joe Flacco over his passing yards, which, what was that like two 41 and a half or something like that? Yeah. So our first, uh, player prop best bet week one, it goes right into it. So NAS transition here into Joe Flacco, uh, to go over 241 and a half passing yards in this week, one matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. And like I mentioned, um, Joe Flacco who took over as a quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, um, in the 2023 season and not really the season, it was just really one month, uh, where he was absolutely fantastic. And I believe it led him to the playoffs, uh, which was against, in fact, my Texans there. Um, but they weren't shy about it. They let him come out and fling the football all over the field. So I'll just quickly read off the, in those five games on his passing yard numbers, 309, three 68, three 74, three 11 and 254. So for those five games, he had 309 or more passing yards. And again, a lot of this has to do for me as well, is that they are playing the Cincinnati Bengals defense that is going to continue to struggle early on the season. And frankly, throughout the season, because they didn't do a whole heck of a lot, uh, to address it. We saw it in the preseason that there were some high scoring games involving the Cincinnati Bengals, uh, especially in the first half of games. And I think that Kevin some fancy is going to put together a great game plan here for a team that he's very familiar with, obviously being in the same division. And you have Joe Flacco here who again has been around the block. He, you know, got his Superbowl with the Baltimore Ravens has been bouncing around a little bit from team to team. And now he just comes back to the Browns and he's not, he's familiar with the Kevin Stefanski system. Like, like I mentioned, it was with this team in the 2023 year, there's a sleepy. So I really liked this one. I think this number is a little bit, uh, conservative. This could be one of the higher scoring games on the board in week one, typically we do see a lot of unders, but a lot of this is just predicated on me just fading the Cincinnati Bengals defense. I think that just might be a theme for us throughout the season until the market does catch up to it. Yeah, I think there's a second highest total on the board this week. So obviously they expect points in this game. When I look at Cleveland in this particular game, I, I can only think that Joe Flacco is an easy quarterback that they're going to be able to bench at some point this year and try one of the new guys out. And I think with Flacco, it's going to be one of those like a explosion type of offenses where he's going to frustrate the living crap out of you. Like you're going to be on the edge of your seat. It's going to be up and down, up and down because he's going to throw interceptions. He's going to throw some ugly passes. But I think that this offense is more built for that deep ball. We're going to get a lot of chunk plays out of Flacco in this offense. I think that that's when you're going to get, you know, the, the big explosion, the highs, you know, when you're excited, uh, for, for Joe Flacco on this team. I feel like if we, if we round up all our prop plays this week, this easily could have the most bullet points of why a particular play is actually light. There's a lot of reasons why you should like Flacco over his yardage in this one. A lot of it just comes down to the bangles, believe it or not, on offense and defense. That offense in Cincinnati is going to push every team. They're not going to get blown out, even though they're going to give up a ton of points. So I don't see Cincinnati running the clock out in this one. And I don't see the bangles, uh, getting blown out in this game. So it's going to be more of a passing attack here, I think more than anything from, uh, from the Browns. They'll be behind at some point, so it'll be more throwing than it will be running. It's not like Cleveland has a, a good, very good running back stable, Ford and Judkins. Maybe he might see the field at some point here sooner or later, but yeah, it's Flacco for me. My buddy was sitting here the other day, Manoff, and he was talking about something he saw on one of the betting shows where I think it was like the highest game yardage was like 495 to like 500 and some yards. Like that was going to be like the, the most yards that any quarterback passed for. And I was sitting and I was thinking, I'm like, well, who could that guy be? What could that game be? And I'm like, it's probably a high probability it could be Cincinnati. And I just started to think, cause as you were rattling off the numbers in the beginning of this handicap, those big games that Flacco had, Flacco is a dude that could actually do it because he has the big play capability guys out there. This is the right defense. Let's not be shocked. I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but you might want to consider betting quarterbacks over their alternate yardage, like decent plus prices, 300, maybe 400. I think you're going to hit on a couple of those this year. There's a chance. Flacco has a monster game here. I think two 41 and a half. It's just too low. It should be closer to probably like two 80 that that's kind of where I'm at with this game. Yeah. And like we mentioned the numbers that we said, I don't know, I think it was about a close to two years ago now, but you had a game in there against the bears right through for 374 yards and they're three 68 against the Texans as well. So I think this is an opportunity where you may want to ladder up Joe Flacco all the way up to 300 plus in this game here because I do expect to see some fireworks. But at least for our player prop best bet, week one will make it official. Joe Flacco over two hundred and forty one and a half passing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. All right. I think that's going to do it here for this edition of the NFL prop show. Week one. Sleepy. Anything else you want to mention to our listeners before we get our weekend started? Yeah. I want to thank everybody returned for the NFL props podcast. And if you did, you know, thank you from from me personally for going ahead, tuning in. Hopefully we can go ahead and deliver some winners for you guys. Like I just said a couple minutes ago, you know, use that coupon code over there, pregame.com kickoff 25, save some money. And also, if you go to pregame.com, you go on the forums, look for the newsletter. We ended up going ahead, giving that out for free for NFL week number one. There's I think it's what, three side picks, three player props. We have some college football stuff there. A.J. Hoffman contributed. There's a UFC pick. So there's probably like 10 or 15 picks just within that newsletter for the next couple of days. So go over there. Check that out. It's in the forum. It's a free PDF. You guys can click on it. You can read all the information that myself went off when I had put together. But yeah, I'm excited, man. It's good to be back. Thursdays are rough. Maybe we'll end up doing this on Friday. We'll have to see how my schedule is, because, you know, Sleepy's busy when when this time of year comes around. I don't want to make any commitments. I don't want to make any promises. But I'll tell you what, each and every week, the NFL props podcast, it'll be there before before the game's kickoff. That's for sure. Plenty of time for you guys to go and make those bets. Yeah, 100 percent. Just really excited to be back to the props pod. It's been a lot of it was a lot of fun last season. We'll carry that over to this season as well. So like Sleepy mentioned, it'll be there in your feeds before the Sunday games for sure. So you can consume it all and get your bets in whether you decide to fade us or follow us. It's definitely up to you. But I'm definitely excited to be back for the NFL season. So busy, busy times. Like Sleepy mentioned, make sure you check out the newsletter that we put together. We work really hard on it. So we appreciate you guys to check it out and feedback. Yeah. Tweet at us. We'd love to hear from you guys there as well. All right. We'll be back next week for NFL week two. Until then, enjoy the games for week one and we'll talk to you guys down the road. Popsicles, sprinklers, a cool breeze. Talk about refreshing. You know what else is refreshing this summer? A brand new phone with Verizon. Yep. Get a new phone on any plan with Select Phone Trade-In and MyPlan. And lock down a low price for three years on any plan with MyPlan. This is a deal for everyone, whether you're a new or existing customer. Swing by Verizon today for our best phone deals. Three-year price guarantee applies to then current base monthly rate only. Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers.