NFC West Preview! Plus, It's Over for the Clippers | Ringer Wise Guys

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Monday too. Yeah. Yeah, no game Tuesday though. Oh, DeBundo, you always have to put a pin in our, our friendly balloons here. All right, listen, got a lot of show to do. The NFC West, we have one division left. The NFC West to preview. We're going to do that. We're going to handicap the headlines. Let's first hear from our presenting sponsor, which will sound a lot like my voice, and then we're going to come right back to do all that. Ring or Wise Guys is presented by Fandall. The NFL is here, and it's your most rewarding season ever on Fandall. With the all new Fandall Rewards Club, every eligible bet can earn new points, win or lose the more points. The bigger the rewards, you can unlock head to Fandall.com/ Wise Guys to start earning with Fandall Rewards Club. You have to be 21 or older in select states, 18 or older in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. And if you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-Gamber call, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. All right. There you go. Let's handicap the headlines before we get to this NFC West breakdown. This is really one story. It's the only story. The LA Clippers have been sanctioned. There was some shenanigans as to how Kauai Leonard was paid his salary and as a result, the NBA did some digging. 30 million dollars for the team. That's the fine owner. Balmer gets suspended a year. Kauai himself gets fine 700K and the team, this is the big one, is Dr. five first round draft picks. Holy shit. Raheem Palmer, put this in perspective. Well, I mean, I think we do have some precedent here. Have you go back to 2000, the Minnesota Tim Walls? They made a legal under the table agreement with Joe Smith to sign below market contracts so the team could acquire his burr rights later. And you know, Commissioner David Stern at the time, he's like the long arm of the law. He avoided Joe Smith's contract and he penalized the Tim Walls. He stripped him of five first round draft picks and gave him about a $3.5 million dollar fine, which is around almost seven million today. But you know, they didn't void Kauai Leonard's contract at all. But the big thing they did do was they did hit them with five first round draft picks. It's unfortunate for Steve Barmer because you know, this guy's in his 70s and he's willing to spend money. And that's kind of like a death sentence for this clipperist team. I don't know how they're going to be able to win without five, when five first round draft picks. Now, obviously they're still in our late. They still can probably get free agents, but that puts them in a tough spot. But the biggest winner in this bar for is Kauai Leonard and Uncle Dennis. Because real Uncle Dennis, this guy fitness, $30 million is a black man and he don't got to go to jail. And all Kauai Leonard's got to do is pay $700,000. So salute to the Kauai Leonard family salute to Uncle Dennis. I got an uncle named Chris. We call him King. I got to go speak to Jeff Chow see if I'm getting like 50,000 or so. Okay. All right. Wow. It's all been laid out there. I didn't realize Kauai Leonard is the big winner. I mean, the clipper certainly aren't there now house a thousand to one to win the title. And you could get used to those numbers as Raheem points out missing five number one picks. This ballmer, yes, in addition to not being able to go again, step foot in that billion dollar arena created. I guess I would just set up cool concerts every other day that the clippers aren't playing. But my god house, this is something else. Think about that. He built that with with basically his money. He can't go in his own house that he built with his own money. It's very rude. A handful of things. The group that I feel worse about the biggest victim in this whole thing is fans of the clippers. Like what are you supposed to tell, well, well, Billy crystal and in like nobody else. No, that's old school. They they those crowds were pretty good over this this time since that stadium was built and it was configured explicitly to build some fan camaraderie and you know, they they actually had kind of an effect on games. I mean, I I liked what they did and what they had going there in LA. I feel bad for the fans, but here's a handful of things that I was thinking about. First of all, does the NBA really want to incentivize one of the richest persons on planet earth to humiliate the league? Like if if there's no legal remedy that's available for Steve Balmer to correct this, there is no pathway by which he can appeal this. But he certainly he certainly can spend his own money to higher investigators to look at other teams and deals that those teams may have cut. I mean, the prime example of this and this is going to be everywhere is Jalen Brunson and the Knicks. Does the league really want to indulge and investigation of what went on? They they've already charged the Knicks with tampering the put the the simple facts of what how Jalen Brunson ended up in New York. They hired Rick Brunson a year in advance the Knicks did and then Jalen arrives and signs a contract that's a hundred million dollars under market to stay there. Do we really want to engage in discovery about all of the things that went on in that situation? The two elements that jump out of me also. First of all, the Clippers pissed off the league. There they there is something about what happened in terms of their how forthcoming the Clippers were with the league that incentivized the league to drop the biggest hammer they can imagine. It's the single biggest penalty. It is akin to the Joe Smith. It is a death penalty, but I think it's the single biggest penalty ever levied in a in a situation like this. But I just I don't know man. It's a tough one. It is tough. So overall the bundle the total cost of Kawaii Leonard signing with the Clippers. Shagil just Alexander, pretty good Jalen Williams, 10 first round picks, two first round picks, swaps. I still say it's worth it. He got some fans in it. No, no, not worth it, right? Well, I think that's why they had to lay the hammer. People will say it's unfair and maybe it's too too penal to the fans to the Clippers organization with the first round picks. But if you let this slide, you don't have a league anymore. You don't have a salary cap. You don't have a second apron if teams are able to just, you know, negotiate these backroom kind of questionable type deals. So they had to do it. They ended up being the poster child and kind of the whipping boy of the of the situation. But what was the alternative? Because I've seen a lot of Clippers fans all all again, all 12. They've complained online about the situation. I get it. Clippers fans are complaining, but you have Raptors fans who feel like they should have had a chance to repeat for the title because ultimately, look, it's like he chose the Clippers over either the Raptors and the Lakers. And without those deals, maybe he stays in Toronto and maybe Toronto repeats without, you know, those deals, maybe he goes to LA and you have a potential dynasty and a triple threat between LeBron James, Kawaii Leonard and Anthony Davis. So this Clippers deal kind of stole that from other teams fans. Like, I have heard Raptors fans say, yo, we deserve one of them first round picks. Now, one of the hottest takes out there, one that I really, really love. We all love the NC's in tournament. I know I do. Just people saying, how about we let all the NBA teams play for the right for those Clippers draft picks. The Clippers, they got a chance to compete and get their draft picks back if they can just win the NC's in tournaments. So let's put them up. The next five years, win it. The tournament gets the Clippers first round pick. I like that. I like that. I'll support any kind of NBA cup and lighten and enhance and be great. Make, make a show of it. I had thought that idea is better than this, but I thought like Bomber should have a choice, like a sliding scale choice house. Like, okay, $30 million and five draft picks or $100 million and two draft picks or $400 million and no draft picks. Give us a week, we're going to put this on Amazon and you're going to make your decisions. It's going to be big. It's going to be bigger than the draft itself, but I don't agree with that because now the incentive for the Clippers is to trade every single asset that they possess for first round picks over the next five. There's no incentive for them to go try and win. The other thing about it for for the Clippers, why would they pay $1? above whatever the floor is in the collective bargaining agreement in terms of player salaries. They should have the lowest payroll in the league and they should trade every single valuable player that they come across over the next, you know, seven years for first round picks. That's the reason they created it. They made sure they have, but it's necessary, but it was necessary because there's, you know, Rahim talks about the history of deals like this and penalties like this. They could have forced them to sell the team. If Palmer didn't mean so much to international rights and going forward international, but another team, maybe in the league, I think he would have been forced to sell owners have been forced to sell, I think for less. So it's going to be interesting. Wow. And then, and so now we wait for Pablo Torre to send Simmons to jail. Is that next house? I don't know. Well, he's going to try and send jail and Brunson to jail. I think that's what comes next. Okay. All right. We're too excited about this. What are the odds? What are the odds? Something happens to Pablo Torre. I know it's not 19. No, no, no, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. Billionaires. Yeah. I did read something like that. Like if this was in the different time, it would have been handled. It's not the Joey Nish. I mean, he's the one who got to put that on my radar. All right. Joey Kinesh is a suspect number one of somethings to happen upon Torre's, but yeah, it's a crazy world. We live in here at the bundle. I mean, it's not going to lie. If he did this to 50 cent, it might be ugly. I think that's why they never let 50 cent own a team. I'm not sure, but it's fun to hear him. We were talking about it. It was two days ago. We did a ticket taker. And one of them was the Clippers 45 plus wins. And now it's like, oh, my God. No, you're going to be 50 years old next time we, you know, no incentive to tank, right? No incentive to tank. I guess so. Anyway, they have no incentive to win either. Yeah. It's supposed to do. Yeah. I don't know. Very interesting. Maybe they could become a Savannah bananas of the NBA. I mean, you know what I'm actually curious because there was like a, there's a thing called the stepping rule where you can't like treat your, you can't treat like three first round picks in a row. So I was wondering how did that team do with no first round because they even have like first round picks for like four years. Right. Right. I mean, maybe there's a, I mean, you got to remember, you're still in LA and you do have the second apron. You, you, you, you do have an owner with a little bit of money. Maybe he just says, you know what? I'm just going to sign. I'm going to trade for people. I'm a sign for whatever and I'll pay whatever tax because I'm that rich. So I wouldn't necessarily stick it to the league. Yeah. I wouldn't completely count, you know, the Clippers out of, you know, at least, you know, being, they're not going to be contenders, obviously, but at least, you know, being, you know, competitive. Oh, that's interesting. So he goes the other direction. He basically does what, what the Hatham's did with the Sean Watson, which is create out of crazy, he sets new standards for what the market will pay for players and just crazy over plays luxury tax be damned second apron. What the hell does he care about any of that? And he just blasts the whole thing. Maybe that's why the, the, the, and the players association went along with the deal. I don't know. And he's, he's, he's, he's that wealthy to where he can do it. Yeah, but don't you think that it was a wink, wink like, hey, man, we, you know, we could have forced you to sell this team. So just take this, you could, you could yell and scream and kick and cry in the media, but you know, you know, don't, don't, I don't think there was any wink, wink. I think that this is, as, as, uh, severe penalty as the league could muster. I don't think so. I mean, based on what a Donald Sterling had to sell it to, like, he really could have to say goodbye to the NBA. If not for it, like I said, the international stuff and I don't know, uh, you could look at it all, all different ways. It's funny. You do bring up the Browns house. You were there when Simmons and I were talking about a buddy of mine said has the Sean Watson crippled the Browns more than any player has crippled a franchise in terms of not being able to move forward for a half decade. Here we go. Wait, one week, not only took a week. Yeah. No, what? No, it's still. No, no, this works contracts, but who specifically in that scenario, who was, who was like gotten behind so that a team can advance, I mean, the Browns grew up anyway. So it's hard to blame Watson, but I don't know, not for five years. It doesn't kill anybody in the NBA. They used to have seven in nine year contracts. I only used his contract was one of the worst contracts I've ever seen. Yeah, but the Browns changed the standard. They gave guaranteed money to the show. There was never guaranteed money of that quantity over that period of time until Browns did that with Watson. Yeah. They completely rewrote the standard. How many years did he have on this contract? Was it five, five year, two hundred and thirty five million guaranteed? Wasn't that the deal? Yeah. That was it. That sounds right. All right. Wow. We have not heard the end of this game. I swear, I don't know. You sound like a seven year do. But that was just not to make the playoffs in seven years and they not like, you know, the Browns are just three or five wins. Yeah. They're having to create the Alan Houston rule so that they could, the teams could get out from under bad contracts. He does have a rule named after him. This is a gambling show. Are we gambling on the Raptors? The Clippers? I mean, I saw somebody fire up 45 and a half. I mean, I already gave out the Raptors to win a division early this year. I think we can go back to the well again and we could take him over 45 and a half wins. I mean, this was, this was, I mean, this was one. We felt strong about once they traded for Kauai because they had, they were top ten defensive rating. I think they were 15th and offensive rating last year. So obviously Kauai is going to make that better. Yeah. I mean, we're going on. They want 46 games last year and they were 15th and offensive rate in, in fifth and defensive rating. The Clippers won. And the Clippers won. Clippers 29 and a half. That's what we moved out of the Clippers. I'm just seeing 30 pluses minus 110. So I'm not, I'm not seeing the individual there. All right. Right. Right. Yeah. Best bet Raptors over. And in special service division over. All right. There we go. I'm looking at it right now. How the markets moved. Not a single inch has it moved in the last month. The Clippers win total. I mean, obviously, picks don't really affect this year's team. No, it's like we'll, the Clippers make the playoffs in the next four year. That's a bet. Yeah. You know, actually applies to this trade. All right. Yes. That's three to one. If you don't think they win 25, I don't know. I don't know what the plan is. If it is a tank plan, then, but it's interesting. What do you think? What do you think? You can't. Everybody brings up good points. I'm seeing tanks to not get hurt for no reason, I guess. All right. Speaking of not getting hurt, I'm going, I got to hurt you a little here at the bundle. US Open. Tony Chokin's guy. Holder. He makes me bet him. What a disgrace. And Tokens was so high on this guy. Oh, he's going to win the quarter bracket of the sweet 16 on the left side of the draw. I was like, guy, the guy couldn't get his first serve in the box. He looked like he had never played tennis before. Thanks for nothing, Tokens. Tough, tough time to be an up and coming dark horse on the men's tennis tour, because Arthur Feast loses day one. A lot of people were picking him to win this tournament after he won Cincinnati last week, Brandon Nakashima, who's probably been the best all-around player on the American hard courts this summer. He passes out. He loses in straight sets to Mikkelsen yesterday. He didn't win a single point on return in the second set of his match. And then to cap it all off, Rafa Hodar, who had never won a US Open match. But was the fourth or fifth favorite after, you know, a joke of which went out to win this tournament. And a lot of people, including myself, thought he was very live to do so. He won the first game of the match, and then lost six, one, six, one, six, one after that. Completely annihilated. Couldn't get a serve in, couldn't do anything, couldn't move. It was a strange, strange performance. So I don't know what to make of this tournament. US Open historically, this was a good study that somebody did on Twitter recently, has been the dog central. Favorites didn't do better. In the early parts of the season, guys get worn out, they get tired, they get beat, picked off, and the US Open Heat. And that has been the case of the first week. We've had a lot of men's upsets at the top of the board, and almost lost their have too. That's the one that needed some late, late match toughness to pull that match out against Sanago on Monday night. That was, I do, I do want to give tennis some credit, and I'm going to say something, and don't take this the wrong way. The disparity of excitement in a big match, on a big comeback match between day tennis and night tennis is bigger than any other gap, I think, in professional sports. Maybe college football, a night game, a big, an amazing night game, you get the energy. But the energy at the US Open at 11 p.m. there, the bundle, I'm giving you credit. Amazing. You know what's out? That's fine. I want to propose something to the group here, actually, maybe we can do a little tangent. Go ahead. So I got home last night around midnight from, you've gone to these, yeah. And tonight is my guy, Mohen Feast, which we're going to get to later in the show, he plays Leonard Tian, American, they're the prime time match on Armstrong at seven o'clock. I have to go to Vermont tomorrow with family for a wedding. So I'm trying to, and I have to, you know, do my job at points of this afternoon, I have some writing and working on, et cetera, et cetera. Should I take the Amtrak back to New York tonight for the match with the idea that I'm either going to have to spend the night in New York and then figure out a way to get picked up by family tomorrow as they're driving to Vermont or come back at, you know, one in the morning and do this crazy drive to Vermont Friday. I've got two weddings back to back days this weekend. What should I do with my life? Come back to, well, first, you've got to go because for some reason this Frenchman is your favorite, Lieutenant's player. and this could be his last match ever. I don't that part. I don't understand, but I think you can make it back at one o'clock and then just tough it out. No, probably. That's what I think I'm going to do. But I've got to go now. I vote for going. Yeah. I mean, go. I mean, we're heaps like, yeah, what the hell do I care? What if I get a set? I'm going to book my train. I'm going to book my train right now. You can fill a buster where we say this Carlos Alcarazza plus one 30. That's the last time we see a plus, I think in front of his name for this tournament, I think that changes in a day or so, right? Tell me if you can see Alcarazza, you go. Yeah. Yeah. But what about betting him plus one 30, DiBondo? There's he's still rusty. I got to wait. I think you can wait a couple a couple of minutes. Yeah. To the finals. They'll get to the finals. But he won't be plus money. He won't not. So I'm only cares about the top 16. I'm not firing on Alcarazza. Yeah. All right. All right. I would rather see more tennis and then get a slightly worse price than the firing on him now. Okay. I also didn't get to watch my tonight's match. I was on the train back from New York. So I didn't get to see him play for you. What else do we want to do? Oh, another headline? Oh, so the the paths were caught cheating again, even though it was not cheating. This Ryan Paganetti. This will get us into football. Let's speak in a cheating organizations. Ryan Paganetti did some digging. He went through like more than a decade of TV broadcast and uncovered a what's called a diabolically clever piece of Patriots gamesmanship. Opposing kickers lined up at Gillette Stadium, the video board displayed a reverse view of the kick placing a second offset of yellow uprights directly behind the real ones. And and furthermore, in windy conditions, even the orange streamers on the video board appeared to point in the opposite direction from a and there are dozens of examples of this in the same games. 52 Patriots feel goal attempts. The illusion appeared exactly zero times. How they just can't they can't do they can't win without cheating. For years and years and years, here we go. I love going at the the cheater patriots. This one I thought was kind of brilliant. I mean, this is just to be attention to attention to detail. And I don't you know, I don't know how often you see opposing team kickers coming out and they get the division, they get to their spot, but it's the same spot every time. It doesn't I don't think change the wind you should be able to figure out before you get in there. You shouldn't be confused by the video screen. I don't know how much an advantage it it conferred. What was the was there a part of the thing also if you're comparing the made vehicles for the Patriots against the the misses for the opposing team. The Patriots had pretty goddamn good kickers for a long time. Yeah, they don't have dancing balloons in the background when they line up the kickball. Yeah, it's nice. No, I there was a corresponding you're right graphic with that. How much better the Patriots kicking has been over the last 25 years than every other team and that guy's like, hench and sims like, Oh, we had Kaskowski and we had obviously vintage area, but I don't know. He you know, look, if my team did this, I would love it. The push push spy gate. I'd love it all, but it's the Patriots. Yeah, absolutely love it. And the thing like I always try to look at historical cons for this type of stuff. The thing that it reminds me of if you go back to the 1995 NBA playoffs, there were fans for the Indiana Pacers who actually brought spinning pinwheels to put behind the backboard. I against the Orlando magic. I don't know why I remember this, but I remember vividly watching it back in when I was like eight, nine years old or whatever. Everyone's okay with that, right? No, they actually banded. Oh, they did. Yeah, they banded because I mean, the magic we're missing a ton of freeloaders. Look it up. It's like made in May 29th, 1995. What is allowed now for cuz fans that the Thunderstakes, they can take things, but they can't have the like it was literally a spinning multi color pinwheel and they just held it up behind the basket and it was like distracting players. So this though, this the one thing that I could think of that reminds me of that. And I just love, I love games, games, my shipping and just, you know, ways of just, you know, finding a little carbon, not a little edge. So salute to Bill Belichick. Actually, he just, he did an episode of the pivot pie cast where he's talking Ryan Clark and a couple of other guys. And he's talking about one of the edges that he found when playing against the, I think the Eagles or whatever. So make sure you check that out. I was pretty cool. That's it. It is the bundle fits there. They'll find it. The Patriots, right? So anyway, I wonder why people weren't more creative with this over the years. Like you could have theory do anything, right? Couldn't you do like a strobe lights band? Like what are the rules on putting stuff behind kickers? Cuz now the clippers not to bring this back to basketball, but they had like the wall. Sure. People theorized and studied it and said like actually, yes, it does impact opponent free throws shooting percentage. Yeah, sure. Yeah, free throws for sure. I would think. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the strobe light to do it until they tell you not to, I guess. So, yeah, I always did wonder when a, when a kicker lined up. I was like, wow, that, it's got to be even just the board itself might be distracting. But anyway, all right, I just like to pile on the Patriots. Let's do it, guys. NFC West. You guys have been patient. We did this. We had to do some rescheduling, but we are going to get all eight divisions in. And we're going to start. I mean, this is a good one. The 2638. I'm counting 38 wins for the top three teams in the NFC West last year. It came down to the last week of the season. 49ers actually had a shot to win this, but they didn't see out on it. They used that home field advantage and they ended up winning the whole thing. But let's start with the Rams. Over under is 11 1/2. The over is minus 140. The under is plus 120. What can you say? They get the defensive player of the year and Miles Garrett. They trade for McDuffie from the Chiefs. Rock solid on offense, as long as Stafford and Nikoa are out there. I'm going to say minus 110 for the division plus 290 for the conference plus 550 for the Superbowl Joe House. You think that number 11 1/2 is a little rich just by a hair. So I mean, I'm not taking the under for the Rams as a Zag. I just don't think that there's any value to the over. I don't think there's any value to any of the other Rams bets right now. And Dream will do a good job of this because Dream is our our best champion of waiting until you know, a few weeks into a season and then grabbing a great number. But right now the number is not good. And the main reason why I mean, the Rams everybody is appropriately giving them the kudos for winning the off season in the way that they did. If you're trying to poke holes in the Rams case, you just look at the first five weeks of this schedule. They are playing in Melbourne, Australia, and they have made the decision to try and make it a 24 hour turnaround kind of situation. Absolutely fascinating. And whatever comes out of this game will will prove whatever narrative everybody's already subscribed to in terms of the strategy for going or not going. We'll have that that immediate recency bias to point to then they have a Monday night game. They get to come home from Australia and recover and play Monday night against the the giants. Okay, that's a good one to have on the schedule after traveling to the opposite side of the world. But then that puts them in because it's a Monday night, a short week, flying to Denver to play in mile high, like Melbourne and mile high in a three week stretch. It feels like a lot. Then they have to travel to Philadelphia that are finally home for Buffalo before they get a breather against Arizona and Vegas. But over those five games, if they only go three and two, now you're looking at a good price for a win total here. And that's the way that I prefer to, you know, size this thing up. Are there six losses built into this schedule? Only if they encounter injury, only if Stafford has to miss a couple games. And I honestly think they're okay with that. There, this is a team that's built for a playoff run and a Super Bowl run. They just need to survive this regular season. That puts the last game of the season. Potentially, you know, up for grabs, right? Are they going to be playing all of their starters in the last game of the season? Will the division still be in doubt? Will, you know, home field advantage still be in doubt? I don't know. But I'm just not going to grab the over with this tough of opening slate. All right. Raheem, well, you three are in lockstep here with this pick. Sorry to spoil it, the bundle. But Raheem, you like the under two. Is it primarily because of the scheduling and the first five and the fact that you could bet in and out of this position? Well, there's two things. How's already mentioned the schedule? I'm going to ask you guys a question. Over the last 10 years, as you know, since 2021, there's been 10 teams with the win total of 11 and a half. Just straight 11 and a half, not 12 and a half, not 10 and a half, 11 and a half. What do you think the record is for the over under? Just take a guess. I'll say three and seven because I still want to be like, wow, it wasn't, but I'll say three and seven. One and nine. Oh, I was going to say, I'll take two and eight. I was going to say one and nine already nailed it. Yeah, he did. One and nine. Yeah. Like teams who have like, well, win total of 11 and a half, they're one and a nine. And right now, there's two teams with the win total of 11 and a half this year. One is the Baltimore Ravens who has a much easier schedule, hurt our preview podcast. I think they're going to start like six and one or something like that. And you have the Rams and they start San Francisco and the Albert, the Giants, Denver. I mean, at Denver. early season at Denver with altitude at Philly Buffalo. So you start 4-1, you've got to go 8-4 to rest of the way. You start 3-2, you've got to go 9-3 to rest of the way. You start 2-3, you've got to go 10-2 to rest of the way. You start 1-4, you've got to go 11-1 to rest of the way. And then weeks 12-18, you've got Grebe, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Seattle. That's brutal. It's very possible that this Rams team is better this year, but has a worse record than they had last year. Now, obviously, I do think the defense has improved. You get Aaron Dino, Dino, you improve the secondary, which means the weakness. Obviously, they had some issues on special teams, but I just think it's very, very difficult to win 12 games in NFL since 2021. When NFL went to 17 games, teams have finished with 12 wins, 32 times in 160 team seasons. So you're looking at 32 out of 160. That's only 20% of the time. All right, I'm here to reluctantly play to under here. All right. I'm, boy, I'm on an island here at the bundle. I think 12, I'm simplifying it. 12 wins last year, also a hard schedule. I think they're going to do it again with the improved offense and defense. You're going under as well. Yeah, I mean, this is a tricky situation because McVey teams have also traditionally started slow. I mean, two years ago, they're one and four. Three years ago, there were two and three and three and six before reeling off a ton of wins in the back half of the schedule. And so it's not uncommon to see the Rams come out slow. Even last week, last year, week one, they won 14 to nine against Houston. They got a little fortunate to win that game, but the offense looked like a bit of a mess. They are running it back offensively and they were the number one offense last year. And it's very easy. I, you know, rate this offense as the number one offense. I rate this defense as number three. This is a super team. I don't think there's any debating who the best team in the NFL is going into the season. But like you said, there are so many opportunities over the course of a year for things to just go wrong and teams not to look out to be potential. I think the market generally on the tails over rates, the best teams underrates the worst teams. And that's just the, there becomes a pile on effect of everybody wanting to bet Rams overs and Cardinals and Dolphinsunders, which we'll get to with Arizona that I think generally speaking, it is smarter to just assume things will compress toward the middle. With that being said, yeah, if you go through the schedule, you're never going to be like, oh, I like the, that team against the Rams. Like I just, it's crazy outtown. They're favorite in 16 games. They were in top top five pass rush last year before getting Miles Garrett. Right. And we talked about this on the AFC North pod with just how much of an impact Garrett has been on off split wise where Cleveland's defense without Garrett has been a awful joke. You know, there's, it's very easy to make the case for the Rams. I at this number plus money too. I would have to go under, but I'm not like running to the window to tell everybody to bet against the Rams. I don't think you have also, you have, you have other outs as well. Matthew Stafford is like 38 years old, 39 years old. Like I mean, like he could fall up like quarterbacks. They tend to go out like boxers. Like one day they're, they're fine and dandy. And then next thing you know, it's like, damn, it's over. You can paint him in it. He took that one hit against the Rams. And then he was never the same. Yeah, we talked about this. I mean, the back has always been an issue going in. I guess because he won MVP, there's a little less talk about the back and spinal fusion in terms like that that we hear over and over. I have about this house. Like what about this? Is Stafford the biggest question mark on their offense right now? Or is it puking Akua with what's going on with the obviously. But let's split them up. Let's do the pie. It's one third, one third, one third. But honestly, I'd like to split it into four pieces. Each of those elements of the offense have downside cases. We didn't talk about the special teams. This is a year over year, bad special teams unit. And they hired, I made this joke already. It's not a joke. It's they really did it. The fact is they did it. They hired this guy, ventrone from. Yeah. The Cleveland Browns. Now, just take a look at the Cleveland Brown special teams last year and think about how confident you are coming in that things are going to change. They still have the same punt returner back there that muffed a punt in the NFC championship game. They did find this guy, Meevis, as their kicker. And he turned out to be a little bit more trustworthy over the last third of the season. But I don't, I mean, until we see that unit come out and really execute, that was a Achilles heel through the entire season last year. That's another reason to have skepticism. Yeah. They have no depth. It's like it's stars and scrubs roster. They just have so many freaking stars that probably won't matter. But a long time called special teams coordinator. We didn't like him either house. We didn't like it much. There you go. Yeah. I'm also Michael Floor to the Cardinals, right? Whenever a team loses offensive coordinator. Yeah. There's a lot of reasons to say maybe it's the real. Yeah. No, I get it. But any, any change up top could, could disturb any change in the fact that you're getting to the first game like three hours before kickoff could maybe slow them down. I don't want to hear about the line. But I know Rahim is going 49ers first half. I know it. I just know my blog right that down. That would be that would be the 49ers first half. All right. Our money line. We're doing both. Probably not too much. What are they going to do? What are they going to do at halftime? We'll talk about it next week. What are they going to do at halftime to juice it up after they show up flat? Are they going to take a nap? Yeah. McVeigh it. That's the other way. Okay. Okay. What do you mean? Yeah. All right. So that's it. Are you not going to convince me to go on there? But you guys do make some good points for the under 11 and a half. I'm going to go over Seattle sea hawks. 10 and a half over minus 120. The under is plus 100 plus 210 to win the division to repeat his division champs plus 600 to win the NFC plus 1100 last year at this time. They're total sad at what? Rahim seven and a half. They obliterated that. Yeah. So if you had to do like our worst hits, yeah, that was he's close by his worst hits. For sure. Like absolutely. Like I don't think we've gotten plenty of things wrong. That was probably the worst take in my four years of being here. I believe from all of us. Yeah. Seattle under yes. We were like deep on Seattle unders. Yeah. It wasn't that podcast. It wasn't it wasn't necessarily the win total element. It was just being very skeptical of the fortunes. And the thesis of it was an offensive line that previewed the previous year could not protect Geno Smith. They just gave Geno Smith no time whatsoever. And we were bringing Sam Donald into a situation with an offensive line that gave no time. And we know what happens with Joe. I mean, Sam Donald still let the goddamn NFL and interceptions. It just didn't matter. I mean, you know, turn the ball over at a rate that puts them in the highest in terms of committing turnovers, but it didn't matter because of how good that defense was. And you've got to give credit to Kubiak. And this is part of the breakdown for this coming season for implementing some zone zone scheme stuff in terms of protection, both running and and pass that really translated into success for that offense. Well, it seems like there's no east coast bias this year, everything. As you know, you got to make the same mistake twice. You're going over the total. Yeah, you got to go over the total. I mean, this is pretty much the same roster. I mean, obviously you do lose a couple guys, but I mean, ultimately they do have like regression in their favor, you know, they want 14 games, but they were 31st in the NFL with 28 giveaways and 15 interceptions, 13 of fumbles. And you bring it back to same roster. We know the head coach is, you know, a defensive genius. And I think, you know, you can kind of throw away all the stuff that, you know, guys from football, outsiders and FTM, all men that have said over the years was that, you know, defense is less sticky year to year. This is still going to be a top five top 10 defense. So as long as the offense is there, I think you go over this rather easily. So let's go over 10 and a half wins. All right, Joe House. You're doing it too. Oh, yeah, you say the defendant champs will at least 11 and six. That's all I they can lose three less games. And I still win this bet. And that's the way that I look at it. They return a ton of guys on both sides of the ball. I think it's 22 or 24 starters is where we ended up close to that. Maybe it's this, but north of 20 and you just go across the board. They're favored in 14 of their 17 games. That doesn't really seem out of order to me. One element of this where I see folks pointing at the impact of kubiak leaving the scene and what does that translate into for this Seattle passing offense, especially because Donald was incredible with the deep ball last season. He made me was only second to Drake May in terms of some of the accuracy stats on the deep ball. But if you break down the deep past defenses that the Seattle team is slated to face on their schedule, it's more favorable this season than last season. They play past defenses that are going to give them some opportunity to throw the ball. So that gave me some confidence and going ahead and grabbing the over as well. And this is really just a testament to to McDonald more than anything. Our guy show Kupadia that I mispronounced his last name probably. I'm sorry, no Kupadia. I said that. That's pretty good. I got it. Um, he has nice column up on this division. And he points out with that with Mike McDonald. Since Seattle had a buy in week 10 in 2024, that was Mike McDonald's first season, the Seahawks have gone to 23 and 5, and only one team over that 23 and 5 stretch has beaten the Seattle Seahawks by more than 4 points. Green Bay? One loss by more than 4 points in 28 games. I mean, that's pretty goddamn good. So I think I much in that game, they played Green Bay and they got spanked, was like 15 and 2 on the road in the last two years too. Yeah, so he's disguised. Oh, frickin' wizard. Yeah, so 14 wins. Could they regress? I think they do. The bundle. I see them at 11. That's why I'm going over. You're going over to. Yeah, I mean, we can talk about two years ago as well. Mike McDonald's won for two in hiring offense coordinators, hired Ryan Grub two years ago, and they knew pretty quickly that it wasn't going to work out. The offense was a bit of a mess. They still won 10 games. Why great special teams, great special teams, other Harbaugh, there's a third Harbaugh. People don't talk about very often. Jay has had a great special teams unit. And then this defense has peaked. And look, I think two of the five best defenses of the last 10 years of football were coached by Mike McDonnell. Mike McDonnell for two different teams, the 2023 Ravens and the 2025 Seahawks. It's a scheme thing. It takes some time to build, but they have all the pieces that they care most about in place now. They have the versatility of where they're spoon and even worry. They have Durnace Jones in the middle. They have a ton of depth along the defensive line. There's not like one star past Russia, but there's a ton of really good ones. And obviously, I think that makes them so schematically sound defensively. Maybe, you know, maybe the second corner is a red flag. Teams can pick on maybe schedules tough. But when he hits the head coach higher, the offense coordinator higher, we see how good it is. When he misses, we see how it can be. If you put them somewhere in the middle, I had this offense 18th coming into the season, even with that level of offense, this team wins 11 games. I might have been very similar to me actually to Philly. And there's not that many differences between Philly and Seattle right now. When you look at the two rosters, the young defense, head coach, being the only one, but Eagles have a better track record of having better offense is because they have, I would argue more talented offensive players. But if the coordinators good coordinators good, you like you like the Eagles offense a lot more coordinators. Maybe not so much over. I'm over anybody. Yeah, I agree with that. But then you're taking sake one, then you're taking, you're taking Philly, a tight end, you're taking advantage Smith over all the other Seattle receivers. Sure. Yeah. You can't always align and never think he says right. I mean, they're stacked. They lost three defenders. They lost three starting defenders. And it's not as big a deal because they are as deep as they are. But I could read Reem's mind. So they won't got to be truly shocked if Sam Donald goes back to the Sam Donald. We know from 2022, 2023. Right. He wasn't that good last year. Yeah, he could be up and down offensively three point games like, you know, I say like a quarter into the Super Bowl. You're watching it. And it's like, yo, the Patriots can't block the sea ox. So let's just run the ball. Sure. Like we don't have to put the ball in Sam Darnel's hand. And we could just win this one. Can't walk. That's good coaching. That's the first time we mentioned Kenneth Walker no longer part of the team. He's a home run hitter. It's fine. He's not a down to the season. They were regularly like tossing him to the bench in the in the red zone. Yeah. He's not down there. You've got to replace him. No, I mean, this price has to be decent. Charbonne is out for a while. You know, or whatever. Yeah, they're going to try to make it work. But you could tell he's banged up. But, you know, run game wasn't good last year either. It was like kind of like hit or miss. They would run it a lot. It didn't really work. I threw this out to Simmons because we so the Patriots and Seahawks were plus money to make the playoffs. Each of them last year, which is a stout thing that they got to the Super Bowl. The box specifically over under was seven and a half. And I'm looking at teams. Reem, whose number is seven and a half this year the Steelers, the box, the Saints, the Colts. I wouldn't dream of taking them any any of them pass a divisional round. Would you? I mean, you can you can make a case for the box because I guess that's a stunning number. What's the price at seven and a half? Four who for the box to go over seven and a half. Oh, yeah, I know I got I guess this is like a week and a half. I agree with dream. I'm bullish on the box this year. The box would be my pick for that. Only only one of those teams has a new coach of those four you mentioned. Steelers, box, Colts. They're quarterbacks 40,000 years old. Yes, I did. Mine's 150 Steelers had Sam Arnold. Yeah, you can sell me on the Super Bowl ticket. I just want to say to bundle put it in my mind. So I had to look up the parlay. If you take Eagles over 10 and a half and parlay that with Seahawks over 10 and a half, a juicy plus 302 on the handle sports book. Let's go 11 pre Eagles 11 for Seahawks. Let's go to hell with that. I mean fine. Seahawks for 11. All right. So we all take the over though over 10 and a half San Francisco 9 1/2 over minus 130 under plus 110 plus 330 to win the division plus 900 to win the conference and plus 1700 to win the Super Bowl. There we go. Lots of injuries preseason. Who's going to catch the ball? I don't know that they wanted to sign the ball Samuel, but they kind of forced to at the end there. And now here they are. And you got, you know, Kyle Shanahan behind the wheel. I said, oh, that came out wrong. All right. House over under 9 1/2. Well, if you talk about the San Francisco 49ers, you must be familiar with the term adjusted games lost because that is the stat that captures injuries. And if you talk about the San Francisco 49ers, you get to talk about injuries. I don't know whether it's the substance. I don't know anything about the substation, but this team every single season experiences significant injuries to very important players were entering this season. More healthy than not, even though there is some stuff out there already. I am playing over 9 1/2 for San Francisco for two reasons. One, unlike the Rams and Seattle, they have a fairly manageable schedule. And I see a pathway to get to 10. I count eight good solid wins on their schedule, just looking at it, you know, week to week. They come home from Melbourne, Australia, unlike the Rams. And they have three straight home games. And those home games are against the Dolphins, the Arizona Cardinals, and then Denver, which is going to be a tough enough game. But, you know, you get back to back the Dolphins and the Cardinals after flying to Australia. Okay. I mean, you know, that that feels pretty good going into, you know, they have a week five road game, but three straight games at home to get fully recovered, rehabbed, whatever is necessary. But most of their skill guides are back. The big open question is on defense to me. And, you know, Fred, Fred Warner's return. I don't think you can overstate how important that is to the functionality of this thing. And so I like over. I like them getting to 10 wins. I have both Seattle and the Rams at 11 wins in San Francisco at 10 wins and all of these teams making the playoffs. It's an over for me. Over for me too. It is weird because how she talked about that schedule, they go. They cross 58 time zones. Now a lot of it's it's really just three time zones, but they they cross them a lot. So that's that's a little bit of a missley, but 38,000 miles. It's a never seen before schedule. And yet it's a manageable schedule schedule. You have them over. I have them over Raheem. I think you're going over as well. Raheem Morris actually at DC. Pretty good replacing Robert Salas. So that should take care of some defensive blows. Yeah. And then you get Drake ring, ring law back as well. So I mean, that's a worthy addition and addition to the guys who got hurt last year. I think this is this is a battle injuries. I mean, if if San Francisco is healthy, they typically win 10, 11 games. That's just what it is. So I trust coaching staff. I trust the offense. I just think they're going to be the favorite to win the division at some point, especially with the easy schedule that they have to start the year. If they beat the Rams. I mean, you're talking maybe three and one four and one, you know, so it's just like I think they're in a good spot. So give me give me them. Give me the over. Well, they have one true road game before October 25th. It's crazy. Yeah, right. Good run. That's crazy. That's the bonus for going to Australia, I guess. And yeah, we're always September. But yeah, I am on the way back Arizona on the way back at home. They didn't really have so much softer landing. So here's my thing with San Francisco. Is both anything close to 100% healthy coming off of another major injury. They're pressure rate last year. They generated like it's like number 31 in pressure generated with the jets last year terms of EPA from sacks 32 by like a wide margin like 50 feet of shit. And then the Niners defensively last year. And it totally changed everything they wanted to do. They couldn't run the same defense anymore. Salah was renovating on the fly trying to figure. something out. They literally stopped rushing Jalen Hertz last year. They said we're just gonna drop everybody and just wait him out because they couldn't get him here. They couldn't bring any pressure and cover anybody. Michael Williams gets hurt after he was maybe gonna win rookie the year. So they are still one of the older defenses in the NFL still. And like, I don't know, do you trust Postal Warner Green Law as a group? But like it is important to remember just how good this team was two two years ago three years ago when they were healthy prior to injuries. So well, I'm going over as well. And even when they were last year too, even when pretty, yeah, by the end of the year, they were pretty averaged. 12 and five. I mean, you could we could talk it. Yeah, I don't want to say they're I'll let you finish a second. I'm sorry, but I don't want to say they're immune to injury lock. But they had 74 games missed by week one. And they ended up 12 and five. And I think it's because of Mac Jones could step in and I think he went five and three or something or just so. Anyway, go ahead, finish. Pretty in Jones, their stats, if you would, if you would like put them side by side, remarkably similar. I wrote about this in my offensive rankings. Yards per attempt, completion percentage, efficiency numbers, EPA, basically like carbon copy, which just goes to show you why we like the Niners. It's just Kyle Shanahan is him. And if he's still the coordinator and he's healthy enough to do that and run the offense, they're probably going to be a top six, seven, eight offense. Like they are every year. And that's enough to win new 10 games in the NFL pretty consistently. So I'm going to I hate that I kind of like we all kind of seem to like all three of these teams again. But one of them will fall off who's most likely to well, you know, you're this conversation. I'm coming around. I'm not going to jump the gun on my division pick, except for I can see a pathway looking at this schedule. Now, if they do beat the Rams, there's a decent case for them to be seven and one through their first eight games because that it's the Rams Miami, Arizona, Denver, then at Seattle. But after they play on the road against Seattle, they come home against Washington. That's a win. They go to Atlanta. That's a win. They have a buy week. And then they have Vegas at home. That's the first eight games. Seven and one. And then your division prices are all blasted out. The time to get the division price, because probably sitting here right now, they've got to be traveling outside of the my outside of the first game. They got to be traveling less than every team in the week. This is crazy. Through the first eight games, the road game against the Chargers, road game Kansas City. All those time zones out the bundle. That's not the tough stretch for them is weeks 13 through 17. They have or no 12 through 17. They're, they have Seattle, the Rams, the Chargers, Kansas City and Philadelphia in those weeks. I have them at 11 wins. Rahim, I think this is, I don't know about the vision. I'm not picking them to win the division, but I think as far as win tolls, I think this is the best, your best deal. I think to get them just to double the, their win toll is nine to half. The others are 10 to half, 11 to half. I think to bet the Niners to win double digit games is the best of the three. What do you think? Yeah, agree. There might be one that's better though. Oh, have we hit it yet? No. All right. Let's hit it. Team left. I just got the week one. By the way, who'd you bet? Cardinals against the line. I'm not going to say the number. I'm just saying that I took the points. So maybe a hint. The Cardinals are underdog and week one. Thanks. Over under three and a half. Overminds 145. Under plus 125. I got to get these zeros right. 100 to one to win the division. 150 to one to win the conference. And I think that's a thousand to one to win the Super Bowl. Can I start here? Yeah. The bundle is really hard, man. Why? Because they don't play themselves. I mean, this is maybe the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL. I actually think it's, I don't have the way to get to run the numbers on that. I'm sure somebody who has more data access to them has run it before. It is the hardest schedule I've ever seen. And I actually like this team. I think they're underrated by the market. Again, I bet them in week one. Wow. But I guess the question is, we do this exercise over underers. I think they're better than the market. Therefore, I think they're probably a little bit underrated at three and a half over three and a half for sure. But like, am I actually going to bet that? Yeah, you can't say you want to go first and then not bet it. You have to bet it with your own money. That's to make the joke about the schedule. That's a good rule. If you go first, you have to bet it. You don't have to have to think for him has the strongest opinion on this. I think the best way to bet it, though, is to bet other teams to eat the worst team. Not the dolphins and not the Cardinals. Oh, all right. So do you want three? They were three and 14 last year. But they were two and eight and one score games. And they had a hundred and seventy nine point eight adjusted games lost due to injury. They're ridiculous. I got a shout out Aaron Shads. He said in his database, the only team worse was the 2021 Baltimore Ravens in the history of football. Like since he's been tracking. So we spoke about the San Francisco 49ers. They're injury luck. What? This is the second worst team in injury luck of all time. And they went two and one two and eight and one score games. So they had everything going against them. I think ultimately you hold your nose and you played over three and a half. But I'm going to suggest playing the over four and a half plus one 35. If this schedule wasn't so difficult, I really want to do it, but I can't because the schedule is so difficult. I want to play over five and a half plus two 50. Wow, maniac. Wow. It's just at some point. And I don't know. And that thing is, I don't know what Michael Flora is. I just know his brother is a head coach, but I don't know what he's going to do. But all it's good by association. Yeah, I just at some point, the luck has to go your way. It can't like for them to go three and 14 last year and hit everything go wrong. I just think there's due for some regression. So they were running some crazy shit defensively because they had the corner one, nickel corner go down and preseason didn't play. Then they lost two or three more guys during the season. Everybody was out there. William has a breakout. He gets hurt. Nolan was in the middle of a breakout. Then he goes down like the whole team was was decimated. This offense is also just way too talented. That's the problem. Exactly, like Harrison McBride, love Wilson is an clearly above average. That's right. If not like genuinely good skill group, we've not seen love and it's not even average compared to the rest of the division. So the calm down a little bit. Yeah. Of course, I would take their skill group over the Seahawks. Do you think Jacobi percent holding them hostage for the whole summer? That's going to be throwing everybody. So I know it's numbers are good because they played a lot of garbage time. My question for you, it's not just garbage time though. If I removed garbage time and he was like 24th. Wow. Well, they're priced as the worst team in the league. That's the issue. And then where we're trying to do is come up with value. And I know you're going to go ahead and ask dreams question. No, I have them at four wins too. So I can't belly ache too much about this. But Rahim, if you're going to get them the five, you've been six wins. They were all in six versus the NFC West last season. The problem is if you get them the five or six wins, now they got to go two and four or three and three against the division. Do you see that? I mean, I'll give them a win against the Jets and their braiders. Maybe the Saints or something. But maybe you would maybe you beat the giants in week four. Damn. Yeah, we can get the five wins. No, here's that. So that's it. They beat the giants. They beat Washington. And they beat the Jets, New Orleans and Vegas. And then the last game of the season is against San Francisco. And who knows if San Francisco has already wrapped up the division, who, you know, that's it. Then you have to do it too. Then you're at six that good. That's how you get to six. Secondaries of, you know, Detroit secondary isn't healthy. Well, that's how they play Detroit. If Dallas is secondary, still sucks, which I think they might. Rahim's looking at weeks five through 12. And it's not, it's not pretty. That's a stretch. We're going to get one win. But Dallas is like the well, they know they could win that one. It's like, what are they catching that game seven and a half probably? I just think it's dumb to sign a running back when you're a rebuilding team like that. You'll waste in two years of, at least two years of his five. That's another good reason to bet the over because they are indeed a dumb team. What's in their own rational best interest is to tank and get the quarterback of the future. They're competing with Miami and Cleveland for that. But this is the dumbest. Well, I don't know. Cleveland's still involved, although we did, I did, at least give Cleveland's front office some credit for some good drafting over the last couple of years. And the trade, they did very good in terms of return on the mile scare. So I'm not going to keep killing that Cleveland front office. The Cardinals are a whole another animal. They're going to win four games and knock themselves out of the top pick and maybe even the second pick and get their third choice in terms of the quarterback of the future. But the observation that the bundle made is the right one. They're just are above average in too many skill groups. It's not that they're incredible in any of these skill groups on the offensive side, but their offensive line grades out very well. They're definitely above average. It's fine, right? It's not the worst team in the NFL pricing. And that's the reason that we're taking the over. Also, that secondary grades out well. If it's healthy, it's not, you know, it's not the worst secondary in the entire league. So that's all. I mean, like thinking about their losses last year, like this team was 2.0. The defense was a disaster because of the injuries. They still held up though. They were competitive with Seattle and that Thursday night game. They lost at the buzzer. They had the hilarious collapse to Tennessee, which was a comic comedy show. They lost the colds on the final possession. They lost a green Bay on the final possession. Smack Dallas around. And then the wheels came off. Yeah. Yeah, that's fine. You know, one who percent was better than if you exclude garbage time last year. Right. Aaron Rogers. He was better than the price young. He would exclude garbage time. Well, that makes you wonder, maybe I made, I might have made too much of the garbage time because they were outscored by 55 in the fourth quarter. And then a lot of that is having to do with the games you're just listed. So yeah, I don't even know what this team is. But the bottom spot behind Baker last year. If you go after the ramps for not being deep. Yeah. Well, the defense has no depth either. It's a. I mean, the first five picks in the draft were on defense, but I should bet the team. You know what? The chargers have a whole host of defensive changes coming here with new coordinator. Sure. Arnold's team total week one. So everyone's over on this. Yeah. Okay. So on the three three teams, everyone agrees on, right? The last, the first, the ramps everybody agreed on. The Cardinals everyone agreed. Rams, you guys went on. The Cardinals went over. I think they agreed on everything. Is it everything? Was it a clean sweep? And I guess I guess you agreed, guys, you do the Rams. You disagreed. So that was it. Oh, no. Yeah. What did everyone had Seattle on the same page? Yeah. We all had everything over for everybody. See, I had over, you guys had the Rams on the right. I had over for all four and everyone's going to be like, well, you're not making sense. I promise I could show you how it all works out. I think this division is dying. I didn't go over on the Cardinals by too much. I think four and 13 or five and 11 is somewhere in there. All right. Let's pick a division winner and a first to fourth, start us off for him. Go to San Francisco 49ers plus 330. I just think you get a good number, start to season off. Easiest schedule. If you look at Seattle, you look at the Rams, they got harder schedules. I think that gives the 49ers an advantage. Now I do think the wills could fall off if this team continues to get hurt. They are all roster, but Rams are old too. So. Yep. And you have a ramp 49ers Ramsey Hawks Cardinals. Yeah. Plus plus five 78. Yeah. If you don't get the Cardinals, you'll get a big number if you move that Cardinals out of the fourth spot, but nobody's nobody's doing it. All right. Yeah. But nobody's done. I've never been this big of a gap between third and fourth in the division. Probably not, right? Nine and a half to three and a half, six, six win gap. Wow. Yeah, I can't really be more than that, right? Yeah. It's not going to get 10 to half two and a half. Yeah. All right. So all right, the bundle. You look ready. See Hawks, the one in the division. Yeah. I mean, I was tempted to play Rams. No. But that's minus one 10. And if I think if we want to go against the Rams, you should probably play a bigger plus money and just choose your fighter. Yeah. I'm more confident the 49ers will have, like you said, which team is more likely to have a top 10 offense and defense Rams or sorry 49ers are Seahawks? I would probably pick the 49ers. So like maybe at that price, they are the better bet. I don't know. I'm going back and forth on which team I want to pick to win the division at the odds. No, you locked it. You're in. Seahawks. Seahawks. No, you can do all your money's gone. Seahawks from 49ers Rams. Call him in the case. I went in doubt six with these six. You know, my guy, Mike McDonald, we've been we've been betting him about 10 years. He's pretty damn great. Two years. So yeah, I'm I'll go see y'all hard knocks as a bore fest, but he's pretty great. That's because he's too good. Also fan of the ringer, Mike McDonald. Good, good. I take him back hard. He's a dynamite personality on hard knocks. There you go. All right. House. You also like the Seahawks. I sure do, except for I just went into the outline and changed my pick. Oh, you did. I am going with the 49ers. I really think that this is the best price you're going to get. I mean, and until we get to the very end of the season, but the ticket that I want to have is the plus 330 right now. And you know, I'm going to go ahead on adjusting my exact finish for the NFC West because I can't have the Seattle winning the division if I'm betting the 49ers to win it. So that that I'm I moved over. I really do think that that seven and one is very viable for this 49ers team going through the first half of the schedule. And that's going to be, you know, one of these NFL narratives. Well, everybody had the Rams and you know, the Seahawks will only be with and and and then it'll be the 49ers winning the division. Yeah. Yes. All right. Yes. Exactly. Right. So we won't even ask for an exact finish because now everything's screwed up as much you have the same as why I have it. Yeah. I have it lined up. And I can tell you what the price is. Chinchilla is in our Google doc right now. I'm having the 49ers to win Seahawks second Rams third Cardinals fourth that pays plus seven sixty seven sixty on the Fandals. So that's slightly different from Raheem's. You have Seahawks second Rams third. Interesting. Seven sixty graphics team fighting for their lives. I got it. I'm in it. I'm ready for it. It's perfect. I can't bet every single day. Yeah. It's like, all right. What do I really love here? What do I not love? I know one thing I love. So we do NFC West division player props. Oh, all right. I'll give you my I'm going with the chalkiest I guess. Well, it's so lame. Rams nineers Seahawks Cardinals. I know it's I'm drinking all the Rams cool laid here. I'm sorry. MVP on both sides of the ball. You know, we need to talk about Blake Corum and Karen Williams. Like that's 2000 yards rushing and almost 20 touchdowns. It's crazy. It is. It really could be a, you know, a generational team, but this bet would mean surprise that they went 15 and two. Yeah. Yeah. I have the Niners winning the second place tie break over Seattle. So Rams nineers Seahawks Cardinals plus three twenty four. So that's my picture. We read some of these quotes graph. Oh, graphics team fight. Oh, I thought you said that. That was RGJ twenty eight. Ghost kid one eleven says I was ready for you guys to decimate my Cardinals. Hello. Well, no, we're very fair. We're fair. This is Cardinals podcast. Yes. I think it's starting into a Cardinals podcast. Doom Traveler says, Oh, no, I don't want to see the faces of the podcast voices. I'm used to. Oh, sorry about that. We should have warned you ahead of time. And yeah, what is this? Tush push BD Dawson. All right. There we go. We've got a lot of a lot of people weighing in. There's a current poll. Rams to win the NFC West so far is the what we're looking at. So all right. What are we doing now? We're doing the player prop. The bundle you're excited about this. So go ahead. Yeah, I came full circle on this. I wanted to go against love. You know, price was as low as nine to one to win rookie of the year. And I think that was a decent bet. But now he's down there like pretty close to love. So I got the starting running back and workhorse guy for Notre Dame versus his backup. I think I'm pretty clear who the better football player is. That still matters in this as much as it is an opportunity thing. And I'm not that sold on the Seahawks running game as a whole like price has never been a bell cow back. And again, so at nine to one, sure, but it's six to one. No, thank you. And I really went down the board and all the guys got nerfed. Like if you liked Boston and Concepcion and Lane, right, then you could have gotten them at great numbers. If you like struggling, but all those numbers because of training camp hype, I've gotten looped to the point where I have no interest in any of those guys. And I'm looking at this market and love just keeps drifting and drifting and drifting. And it's like they took the guy in the top five. Of course, they're going to feed him as much as possible. And we like this offense more. I think that people generally otherwise do. So you know what? Love plus 470 rookie of the year. I'll take the chalk. Thank you very much. What does that look like? Stats wise. Does he have to get to a thousand? Because I feel like running backs. It is a little tough. Like it's you got to impress the rookie running backs are traditionally not done that well on this award, except for like your obvious sake on types. And he scored touchdowns. So cardinals. I don't know. You got to get a somebody with that seven touchdowns of thousand yards. Yeah, that would definitely do it. All right. So class again, if they overperform at all, even if they win five games, it's like, oh, you know, the cardinals offense was feisty this year. Thanks to, thanks to love. Maybe, maybe it works. So this part, um, cleave TA, the last seven winners have been a quarterback or a wild receiver. And since 2000, we've had 11 what 11 quarterbacks, non-running backs, six wild receivers. Yeah. And the winners have to come from a team that kind of like exceed preseason expectations. I mean, which we think they will do because, you know, we're gone over there. total, but they're probably going to have to win six games or so in order for that to happen. Yeah. One thing that's a little different is typically you have four starting quarterbacks that are rookies three or four somewhere in there. I don't you don't know who you are. We have zero, right? And those are not starting. So you started back 25 to one. I mean, again, he would have to jump. He'd have to jump. I don't know how many starts he gets, but this is coach said podcast. Yeah. And you know, I'm not going rookie of the year. Maybe I am. But for this, these purposes at the very same age, I'm looking back at this. It's really difficult to win offensive rookies a year as a running bet because it's just like you go back to 2008. And this is my guy, Chris Johnson. He had a monster season in 2000. And obviously, it wasn't 2009, but he still lost it to Matt Ryan. So and that Titans team was like 13 and three. So that tells you how difficult it is to win it as a running bet. His rookie year, he was, he had 1228 yards, non touchdowns on the ground. And then he had 260 receiving yards. And then I mean, he had 11. Oh, he had one on receiver touchdown, but he had a monster here. Still lost the Matt Ryan. We'll just want to take it back. You could take it back. So the graphics guy says you have three more changes in the next six minutes. You love plus 470. There's no quarterbacks. It's just running back. That's all the receivers got nerfed in the market. And all those guys are not even, I mean, debating on what you think it concepts you and embossed. None of these guys are like, why receiver ones? I'm just taking like Ted kind of snuck up on the award last year. But he had a top 10 pick. Like there was pedigree there. Right. But before that, it was like the only guy that makes sense for the traditional ORO, O-I awards. Yeah. Because I guess he is the one who go the first 10 weeks, I think. And then it was like, yeah, I don't know. It wasn't even like a quarterback was in consideration. Maybe. All right. I have another work. I want to mention the Sean Stribling plus 470 to Bundo. You're familiar with that number. But for most receiving yards, I think that's a really good spot for the former Rebel here. Christian Kirk, Ricky Purcell on the IR. You know, who knows what IU is going to play. Kiddles starts banged up. So there's plenty of opportunity to catch passes from Purdy, who was top eight in yards per game. Stribbling first and touchdown receptions for Ole Miss. He had back-to-back 800 plus yards receiving in college with Ole Miss. And then year before it, okay, state. Four catches in the preseason, averaged over 10 yards to grab. I think he's going to make some noise this year at plus 470 for most receiving yards out of a wide receiver. Although, I guess a tie-down could do it too. Any rookie receiving yards plus 470. All right. Joe House, you mentioned JSN. Yeah. What do you like? Because I love him. Holy wow. He could become the fourth player with at least 100 catches in three of his first four seasons. I think that's a worthwhile goal for him to pursue. I think the Seattle Seahawks will pursue it. He had 100 catches in 2024. And last season, 119 catches on his way to becoming the AP offensive player of the year. So the number is 99 and a half. He has to go over 99 and a half. That's available on the Family Sports Book at minus 114. Seems like a kind of a fair price. The thing that especially emboldens me in this direction is the observation made when we were breaking down Seattle. They play past defenses this upcoming season that are not as formidable at least as we sit here in early September as the past defenses they confronted last season. So I think that this new offensive coordinator will be eager to foster some semblance of the same kind of thing we saw that Seattle offense last year. This guy Flurry is that his name? That's a hockey name. But he is the offensive coordinator replacing Clint Kubiak. So all of that to me counsels in favor. He is the most trusted guy for Sam Darnold. They can get the ball vertical. I love JS then going over 99 and a half receptions. So fun one. Is that less than six a game? Yeah. It plays them all. All right. Doable for him. Talked about Arizona's underrated offense. It starts with this guy I think. Yeah, I'm going with Trey McBride over 950 receiving yards. He had 1239 last year. He had 1100 to year before. I think that continues. I mean, at the end of the day, as long as he's healthy, he's going to get the majority of the targets. He had 169 targets last year. 47 year before. Like all he does is catch balls like at the end of the day. So I think this is like he has a very high floor. So yeah, give me this over. You have powers for your AFC West playing the pop, right? Yeah. You like the power to the great tight ends on bad teams. So yeah, his value and these guys coming down from last year. All right. It's time for a plays of the day. Sean, I'm not even going to mention our record this week. It's Carnival's beat the Dodgers. That happened. That was my right. That was a good job by us. I shit on Adrian Spishhover and said he's overrated in stinks. And instead of betting the nationals, I bet the strikeout prop and he went over the strikeout prop and gave up six runs. That was cool. But at a eight picks or seven picks have not not great so far. But we're going to turn around right now. I'm going to let Raheem Palmer lead the way. Do it, Raheem. I'm going to um the Boston Red Sox rough series against the Seattle Mariners. I think they balanced it back here against the Orioles. It's got minus 126, but yeah, I've stung this week. All right. I mean, how about that game yesterday? Well, two days ago. Oh my god. That was crazy. What the hell? As a plus 143 underdog, then we're losing by like seven runs, then we come back and then just nothing. I was so confused for him because I saw your tweet before I saw the final score. And then I'm like, wait, they did come back. Oh, wait, no, they were winning. What happened? And then I'm like, nothing lost that game. Are you kidding me? All right. We got to get to football. You're right. All right. Red Sox minus 126. Raheem's play of the day. Joe House. What do you like? I'm playing the Kansas City Royals. First five innings minus 12. I don't want anything to do with the stupid royals. Bull pen. And they were in an extended usage last night losing to the stupid Marlins. But Michael Waka has been really strong. He's one of his last three. The Kansas City's one is last three, and they won five of his last eight. They are up against the Miami ace, Sandy Alcantara. But Miami doesn't win when Alcantara pitches for some reason, even though his numbers are good. They've lost four straight of his starts and seven of his last 10. I just want to get the five innings with a couple runs for Kansas City. I'm not willing to indulge bull pen, shenanigans or any of that. So minus one 12 Kansas City first five innings. All right. DeBundo take us to flushing. Yeah. Gamble and Feast probably the final Grand Slam match of his career. So sad. I'm so sorry. So I know how much you love it. Oh god. Just get through it. I'm sorry. Oh man. That's going to be me sitting in the seat tonight if I decide to make this trip. It's going to be year tomorrow morning. Wait. Yeah. My ride to Vermont. I'm going to just be impressed. He's playing Learner TN. Now, Monfie's debuted at the US Open before the end was born. It's kind of crazy. 2005. Learner and Monf played a great three-setter in Montreal a few weeks ago. And I think it's very unlikely that Monfie's can outlast him in a best of five match. However, with the crowd behind him against the American Monfie's tonight Armstrong Stadium. I'll be cheering him on. Learner to win the match in four or five sets. So Learner to win the match both players to win a set plus one 35. I got to do it one last time. We got back. You're betting against it. You relax and have an inexplicable French tennis hero. You're betting against on his farewell match. You can win a set to 24 or five. Okay. Plus one 35. All right. Can't accuse me of being a homer. I don't know what you're going to accuse me of for taking Arkansas a Pine Bluff plus 46 and a half. No good shots did. No good. But change the graphic. Mikey, Mikey, change the graphic. Plus 200. Come on. They won by 20 last week. I heard it was against the D2 school. Whatever. But three touchdowns of 30 plus yards. No, look, I look at these even last week. There were like a bunch of games where those teams I was supposed to get smoked. These offenses are coming out slow. We're seeing 10 three after the first quarter. We're seeing 17 10 and then it's hard to make up the 34 34 5 36. The regular spread on this is 54 and a half. I'm adjusting it against myself. But odds wise in my favor plus 46 and a half at plus 200. Missouri's got the old mistransfer Austin Simmons a quarterback. You know, he only completed 60% of his passes. And that's why Trinidad Chambles stepped in. The star running back. Hardy is out. The starting left tackle is out for Missouri. It doesn't matter. They're better. They're going to win 50 to 12. But I'm going to cover 46 and a half plus 200. That's how you do it, Rahame. That's how we're We're going to go. and out tonight and put these demons behind us. What do you think? - I didn't even know the school existed. (laughing) - Oh, yeah. - The pineapples. - No, I didn't. - Yeah. - Well, I almost, for the sake of this, when I saw cousin Sal with the college football pick, went to the deep deep well with West Georgia against Kenosaw State. - That's a fun one too. - That's another total that is just too high. So under 51, that would be my bonus bet. Under 51 in West Georgia, Kenosaw State. - I like it. - Here we go. - The college football. - The house's gotta be trolling us right now. - West Georgia, Kenosaw Under. - That's unbelievable. - You know what the Pine Bluff mascot is set out. - Well, what did I say, the golden lions? - Right. - Yeah, but his nickname is like the character's name. - Oh, his nickname is Monfields. - I don't know. - Yeah, Monfields now. - Well, Monfields is his name, the, the grain, like R-A-I-N, R-E-I-G-N, like R-A-N-I-S-D, R-A-N-S-D, R-A-N-R-S. - Yeah. - Okay. - To Pine Bluff, baby, the gold, let's go lions. - Come on, 46 and a half. That should get me to the middle of the second quarter, at least. All right. We talking more college football with Tate tomorrow on Friday, previewing week one in the NCAA. I talked to Heather Dinnich, lovely, and informative little interview there. And Sunday, I'm on with Simmons. These guys back, so we're Tuesday through Friday next week, right? We're off one day, Labor Day, all right? We're back Tuesday, house your out. Tate is in Wednesday, Thursday, me, Rahim in the bundle, and then Friday, our very first week one, preview. My God. So how long do we want those to be? Three or four hours? - At least one week one, I think it's only just if we do 30 minutes per game. - 16 games, right. - 30 minutes a game, 80 hours. - 30 minutes a game. - We'll be able to talk about week one lines, by then. So, all right, that's going to do it another episode of "Ringer Wise Guys" for Rahim Palmer, Joe Halston. Tate the bundle. I'm Sal, thanks so long and happy handicapping. - "Ringer Wise Guys" is brought to you by Fandall. Fandall is now available everywhere, seriously everywhere. California, Texas, Georgia, Florida. 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