New York Giants 2026 Season Preview: Can Harbaugh Fix This Roster?
57m 31s
In this episode of The Deep Dive, hosts Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick analyze the New York Giants, the fourth choice to win the NFC East at plus 555 odds. They discuss the Giants' disappointing 2023 season, which ended with a 4-13 record despite some bright spots from rookie quarterback Jackson Dart. Dart started 12 games, showing flashes of talent but also struggling with health and durability, taking numerous hits and sacks. The hosts highlight the team's instability, including the firing of head coach Brian Daboll and the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, a move they view skeptically. They compare Harbaugh to aging coaches like Bill Belichick who lost their competitive edge, suggesting he may have been carried by elite players like Lamar Jackson. The Giants also lost defensive star Dexter Lawrence, weakening their interior line. The hosts criticize the roster construction under GM Joe Shane, calling it unfocused and lacking a clear vision. They emphasize that the team's late-season wins hurt their draft position, and they see Jackson Dart's development as crucial for any turnaround. Overall, they are bearish on the Giants, believing the team is unlikely to improve significantly under Harbaugh and that fading expectations for a quick turnaround could be profitable.
Welcome to the acclaimed podcast The Deep Died featuring your esteemed hosts Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick powered by Betts vs. Welcome to The Deep Dive and Andy we're going to talk some New York football giants today New York obviously right in the high of the Nick's championship the Nick's out of the clouds winning a championship when no one thought they could do it with an ownership group that sucks many are asking can the giants do the same? Yeah they have a bunch of ownership groups and sucks nobody likes the mats the jets are kind of a front office mess. Cheapers but it is still the big apple and yes we are going to start as always like we've done in the past with the team with the longest odds to win their division we're going to reverse orders so we'll finish up with you know the team that is favored to win the division one division a week we'll go through some of the the changes that this team has gone through over the offseason and obviously the draft and whatnot we'll give our power ratings we'll talk about the schedule Drew has not only those beautiful schedule matrix matrices they put together and shared on the internet on the Twitter but we have one for each team we'll share those in the discord after the show so you can have your own little one just for that team and we'll go over like you said our power ratings and a little bit of the odds if they're saying we're looking at futures wise not heavy on future not heavy future books guys where you know some of these people have 13 regular win season to regular season win totals or I am have kind of been more of a hey let's add stuff during the year that's a lot more fun because it's a little more informed that that said you know some as we roll off the world cup in Wimbledon bank rolls of flush maybe some in play yeah see you see we need France and you see you to Chicara to win the open that would be then I'm just be spraying more in seriously straight future strategy wise we're not gonna get into that too much today but in the middle of July I'm only swinging for the fences I'm not not dicking around with any small stuff we talked about that a little in in previous years too I think you said that if you're gonna and if you're gonna sit and wait on your money to make you money for nine months it does suck to you really have to be like this minus one 10 is off it should be minus 400 like for me to really get excited about a win total or something you need to be playing all along shots you need to get your stuff in for you know long shots and awards you think something is grossly miss price I think you're right that's what we need to be doing this time of year I'm pretty light we'll get to a few as we get to those teams I do want to remind you to subscribe to the channel that would make me feel better I just I live in 2026 where my only validation is thumbs-ups and subscribes and likes I mean that I like my dogs they're good but those help some obviously hit the thumbs up Andy are you there we're having technical difficulties on our first show oh no let's see if the commenters can help me out here is it me Andy Firth but it might be me are you back you're back no that was me my internet dropped for like oh yeah my energy just yes for thumbs up and then I'm just clasps yeah give the thumbs up and then sorry I was where I was where was I you got too many thumbs up I had internet went down yeah it froze us we did too many thumbs up yeah worst and read ever but real quick this is brought to you by Circus sports again oh hell yeah I was I was afraid to ask I didn't know if we did well enough last year to get the ask back this is great news we are sponsored by Circus contests oh my gosh I can't wait to get the details of this year's contest I heard this the biggest prize pool ever offered for no no rake hey Vegas play for many where millions and millions and all sandy I bet you're right now the overlay is pretty big the overlay is huge right now because I've got another get signed up I will be up there sign up weekend I think through will to will probably do show I'm gonna figure out my one thing checklist for this year before we get into the Giants is figuring out if you can use a different kind of microphone when you're in a area with a lot of other people grab because I think those omnidirectional grabbing a lot of they were kind of noisy the one to try to improve the sound quality when we do them from radio row up there I'll ask some other folks that know maybe a little more about tech or probably just ask a lot for great six well let's talk about the Giants as you mentioned they are the fourth choice in the market for the NFC East we will be doing the NFC East this week right now Giants plus 555 to win the division by my numbers it's generous don't love this team and we'll get into why but they finished last season and before 13 some of their advanced metrics say that that was a kind of an unfavorable win-loss record by the time we got to the end of the season I had them as about a minus 3.6-6-4 as far as the neutral power rating goes and you know they were obviously some bright spots where some of their young players did some awesome things and they had some wins that weren't expected and the fans were excited but on the balance of the season you know it was a it was a losing season for Brian Dable who started the season on a hot seat ultimately gets fired. He got fired in season and they put my calf go in charge so have that right. Olvato Kaffka from offensive coordinator to head coach after Dable got fired didn't matter still not a competitive run out although they did win their last two games at the Raiders and against the Cowboys which did nothing to help their draft status they could have potentially had a top two pick they instead were over they. Fifth and tenth I forget. Fifth and yeah roughly I'll have it in there. Yeah I get it in my track. Yeah just my only note on that was it was it was something we thought they're gonna wait to do at the end of the year we all started was lame ducking it but they were two and eight I believe and they had just blown a as Sam is pointing out in the comments they did blow a lot of leads and the game that I think it was a double digit fourth quarter lead that they blew. Bears I think and yeah that well the Broncos one was the double digit. The Broncos one was I think there were several so I do think that that fight. Yeah they really did struggle late in games and some of that had to do with the roster construction and and obviously they weren't super healthy but yeah the Broncos one was was rough. Yeah that will go down as well and I remember all of that but yeah winning those last two games with nothing at stake except for draft position was something. So I will note that as you kind of evaluate the data for last year and make your numbers for this year there was a lot of rumors that Jackson Dart was seriously planked through some pre-serious injuries towards the end of last season. Ultimately obviously was able to finish the season he ended up starting 12 games for the Giants. I forgot that we had two James Winston games and we had three Russell Wilson starts and but yeah the 12 starts for Jackson Dart showed promise. He was fourth overall voting for Rookie O the year. Four and eight record. I don't know. No no no Tyler shock. He was no Tyler shock but no I think I think there was glimmers of hope for the future but it didn't look like the Giants really you know kind of completely hit it out of the park with their trade up to draft him at the end of the first round. The you know last year I think ultimately there's you know there's a reason that a lot of other teams passed on him and I think the big questions surrounding his kind of future going forward really and this is going to be a theme today. Health and availability. He's guys took some serious serious shots. He had you know he's got a fighters mentality. He's a football player you know football player but but you know he put his seat put himself in harm's way quite a lot and you don't necessarily want to be doing that if you want a long successful career as a quarterback so that's kind of where my head is on the Jackson Dart experience. What about you? Yeah same kind of thing if you want and you know if you want a long career or to like live into your 50s you should probably start to avoid some of the contact because he's taking honestly he's taking more head shots than like Eric Dickerson's entire career at this point now. He just you know he can't and he can't like ever slide or take the sideline he does like the contact and I think it doesn't help that he's like friends with Skataboo has a obvious same kind of maybe I should hit my head against his concrete wall.
mentality and Sam Sam begin comment for the year here his SAC data was somehow worse than should do it. Yeah, he was he was highs and lows, you know, he'd make some big plays we'd have some actually excuse should or SAC data. He was playing behind an absolute makeshift offensive line Jackson Dar's offensive line was fine. He was walking he was taking he was he was creating sacks I thought yeah a lot of ways for that as it was kind of highs and lows with him. He'd take a big sack. You'd make a big play. You had some fun times he had some bad time for as you mentioned they didn't win a lot of games and they didn't hang on to leads or win close games late. Of course you're going to you're already got a guy who's a red faced on the red seat might as well get rid of him anyway. And you move on and I think that's the headline of the offseason is maybe this roster isn't well. I think there's two. Well, you can only have one. If I can only have one. That's how a newspaper works. You think there's a second headline. Well, there's a byline. You have a subheading. Yeah. All right. What's your second one? I'll they extended Brent. They extended extended being. What the hell? I don't care about that. Doesn't affect my power number. No, but it definitely makes you wonder what the hell's going on. It definitely kind of points to institutional loss of control or bad ownership, I suppose. Yeah, it's fair. The general yeah, the general kind of moving on from Dable to Harbaugh was met with a lot of fanfare. Harbaugh is obviously a very famous name. There was a apparently a a war of which team was going to ultimately bring him in, which surprised me. Nothing that Harbaugh did in his final chapter with the Baltimore Ravens suggested that he's got some sort of key to unlock the current state of the NFL. But there was a war. The Chinese win they bring in Harbaugh. And in that moment, it was like, well, I guess Brandon Bean is a you know, as a lame duck GM here, he's kind of going to have to seed control over the vision of this team to Harbaugh. And he's probably just going to get shuffled on after the draft is over, but they send him. So this is now a little bit of a not sure who's in charge power wise. We're going to probably get at least three years from Harbaugh since, you know, he is, you know, it is the giants. They don't tend to move quickly. And so the big question for me, a name like that, you know, it's not someone you just, you know, it's a hey, we hired a special teams coordinator from some other team and we're going to move off to Harbaugh. And I think this is, it's so early, like it's July 13. So I haven't, I don't know if I've had enough time to really chew on how I feel about this because there's definitely too past you take with it. And you pointed out like it hasn't been super well, mean, it hasn't been well, mean at all. It hasn't been well, mean, much less overwhelming. How he's taken a lot of good players over the last few years and you know, underperformed when it mattered. But if you take him at his, his full career and his full, you know, work of his, his general, his resume, his body worked, resume, the bodywork. Yeah, I guess it's one try to say like, it's still hey, it's, it's, it's, it's an upgrade. And a lot of teams, I've seen a lot of teams were dying for it. And I think but I think what matters more here is, I think a lot of teams are stupid coordinator hires because Harba Harba isn't, I don't know things micromanaging things. He's going to get it. Okay, so first, first of all, the marriage between being in Harba is a little, it was not being what's his name? Shane, Shane, actually same being that's the dolphin. The judge, the marriage, the marriage between Shane and Harba is not, it's not, doesn't feel like it's this is a collaborative effort to me. And Harba, I think there's, I wish I could come up with any recent examples, Andy, of a coach who had a very long tenure where it kind of sputtered at the end. And he went from being kind of a game changing optimizer, picking up all of the nickels, you know, kind of going for it when everybody else was, was kicking, and then got more conservative as he got older, and then stopped winning as, you know, above expectation to the degree that, you know, his, he poisoned his, you know, his opinion in his own town, even though they were winning games. And like, there's been a lot of examples of this, bell check, happen to bell check. Obviously, I would never say, yeah, I would never say, what's his name? Who is the monical guy from Seattle? And then the Raiders last year, Pete Carol, I wouldn't say, I would say, I'm a pro guy. Yeah, obviously, that's the my, I know, I see, I see that, yeah, Pete Carol was never like an optimizer or four thounds or anything like that. But like, talk, you know, like, this feels an awful lot like that. And where, you know, you have a guy who's, you know, has some success, continues to win and be competitive, maybe underperforms a bit fan based kind of sour as on him, he's shown the door, he gets another opportunity, and he turns out he's too old to really grind an edge in the NFL anymore. This is a young man's sport, you know, the fact that, you know, bell check kind of lost his mind in the sense of advantage NFL decision making, I think there's a lot of evidence that Harbaugh was kind of on a similar path. So I'm not, I'm not prepared to sit here and expect that Harbaugh is going to completely flip the culture and all the sudden, this is going to be a competitive team and they're going to get more out of the pieces that they have on the roster. Because I just, I felt like Harbaugh, the, it was correct to move on from him if you were the organization of Baltimore. And, um, and yeah, there's a, absolutely a world where Harbaugh was a Lamar Jackson merchant for the last 10 years. No question that he could have just been right in the hot hand of an elite quarterback. I mean, they put together some good defenses, but again, Robon Smith merchant, Mike McDowell merchant merchant. Yeah, I was asking like that old merchant. You yes, bird off a superbowening coach. I mean, kind of closing thoughts in this, I guess you got to take a path. You either get inside if you think Harbaugh is a floor razor because he is, you know, the credibility he brings in the leadership he brings. The Matt naggy thing, it's another one where you either are completely out on him because of what you saw in Chicago or you hope that he rubbed off and on the right people in Kansas City, I guess. And, you know, he can lean on some of the, some of the newer, newer play calling styles that would really work well with the, you know, the dart and hopefully neighbors eventually when he gets healthy. So it could be a good scheme jump, I guess, for Jackson Dart. And I do like the defensive coordinator Wilson where he came from, it's hard to like say, Hey, I loved what you didn't have to see because that team was also devoid of talent on the roster, but he did it with some, you know, lesser names. And, you know, that defense took some steps forward at time. I kind of, I kind of like the, the whole, you know, the all encompassing turnover. Let's just, let's just wipe everything out, start fresh. We got young players here. We got a young nucleus. Let's get all new coaches. They brought a couple with him from Baltimore. I think the special teams coaches Baltimore. I gotta tell you man, maybe coach Brian Callahan. And with with Harba and Nighi, you have a couple of guys who have success on their resume. Thanks to Lamar Jackson and Pat moms. Now, let's see you do, now, let's see you do Jackson Dart. Good luck. I think we're going to get three seasons out of Harba and in New York, at least maybe more. In those three seasons, I think he makes his Vegas win total. I'm going to set the over hunter on, on years seasons, he makes his win total. I'm going to set it at a half. I think he's going to under one. One, you think he's going to push one you or is going to make it what he's going to make his win total and he's one and two, you think. Well, just if he underwhelms for two straight years, it's going to be low enough in that third group. That's a good point, actually. Let's see. The Steelers have some plan right now. So, or nor the Browns. So I guess yeah, it's. I'm I think he's a Florida razor with a grain of salt. I am ready to. I'm not like going to war with this team know, I'm happy with the I'm happy with the signings because I don't know that there was somebody else that but again, I don't want to litigate coach hiring at this point. It's already happened. Well, I've already made a by-mind. I'm out on this regime. Is that reason I'm out? Yes. So we'll see. But I do think I don't know. I think that I do think that there is money to be made to fade the expectation that Harbott turns this thing around.
If they do, surprise and succeed over the next three seasons, in my opinion, it's going to be because Jackson Dark takes some sort of step forward that we didn't see coming. Yeah, we need Nation Andy kept. We need like a 1.25 juice to the under. All right, let's get into other changes. Free agents, trades, the drafts. As you just start with the draft, it was five and 10, our Valries and Francis. Boy, it's been a lot of fun. Can you remind me how they got the 10th pick? Did they trade with for that? Was that the. It's been Sinati. Yeah, well, you will get to Lawrence. That's, I mean, all the other losses, what are the other losses? Like Bobby O'Karachay and Russell Wilson. One bill, obviously. Core Delf lot. All the. And then C. Roberts and Iris. Some guys. Some guys. For the season with the NIRs. Yeah, like all the other losses piled up into one is like 1% of what you lost in Dexter Lawrence. So obviously you got a high draft pick for it, but. Yeah, I mean, use it wisely. You needed help up there? I guess there was. If you really liked him, Maui Goa, is that overdoing it? Sure. Good run blocker. They need help in the interior. A lot of the top. They need a hard meeting and we'll see. I feel like a lot of the talk when the Giants got gone was about like we're going to build through the trenches, blah, blah, blah. But then you look at what the roster, what the depth chart looks like right now. It kind of felt like Joe Shane was. All ledges. It kind of felt like Joe Shane was drunk, lame duck operating this. Operating the ship this off season and was kind of surprised as any of all of us that he got re-hard. I don't know. I don't understand the vision here, but don't get it. Yeah, it's a bit clearer now. I think some guys. You start looking at the vision for a shitty team. It's like, well, you had a lot of holes. So either you draft and pick up guys you really like, who you think you're getting a value on or you pick up, like, hey, this is a huge need. And even if you do all that, you still end up with needs and you have a weird roster. And a big part of what I hate about the roster is, again, the Dexter Lawrence subtraction leaves you in a weird spot where he was such a force on the interior. I think he'd say it's a huge negative for these good adressors. And I think there's a good chance of defense overall is very much bottom of the barrel because of that and not only the loss of Lawrence, but just what you're bringing to the table with the rest of the. The rest of the defensive roster, especially maybe I have the secondary average-ish. But that's probably the ceiling. And again, you're going to start a linebacker that is a rookie this year. And we see a wide range of outcomes from that sort of thing where if Reese isn't good and the Dexter Lawrence thing matters a lot more than maybe we even thought, the adressors take a step back and the secondary has like one injury. It's like a bottom five defense real quick. And it was something that had been thought of as a strength in this team over the last couple years. So I'm with you there, especially with the Shane talk. I know it is what it is and I'm not making my power rating based on who your GM is, but for where we sit from a roster building standpoint, it's been confusing. Yeah. And I think the Dexter Lawrence thing deserves a little bit more examination. He is entering his year 29 season. He clearly peaked at 25, 26, 27. He only started 12 games for you because I believe he got injured. And then 20, 25, he was available for all 17 games, but his performance was pretty decidedly lower. Only ended up with half a sack somehow last year, despite starting all 17 games. He was on the strength, the strength of the Giants team last year was their D line. They had way of after way of of guys that could create chaos. And somehow Dexter Lawrence was, I guess, double teamed enough and took a step back enough that he wasn't as big a part of the picture for them. And I needed a new contract. Obviously, they didn't see eye to eye on what that compensation would be. And they get a first round pick form. So I didn't think overall it was bad process by the Giants, but that in the context of everything else they did didn't make sense to me. And Dexter Lawrence is still, I think, one of the top five interior linemen and defensive linemen in football. And now you have to figure out a way to be as good stopping the run and as good with interior pass rush with some guys who have never been able to carry that type of load. And I think that's going to put more pressure on your linebacking core, which is not very good. And today's NFL defense kind of comes down to, can you stop the run without stacking the box? And if you can, then great. That gives you flexibility to put more coverage on the field and you're a better pass defense. If you have to stack the box to stop the run, you are in trouble. And this Giants def the roster that they have put together for the defense looks like they're going to have to stack the box, stop the run. So I think they're kind of screwed. Yeah, it's kind of a rematch too. It's not, it is not a team that we have a surprise like, hey, we actually have this team rated higher than the granders. This is our fourth rated team for Drew, yeah, with a bullet because you will hire on somebody else. But no, I'm kind of with you there. And I think, you know, you look at the strength of the team and it was the edges. How many sacks did Burns have? Like all of them? That's the other thing. Of course, Lawrence didn't have any like Burns had every sack. They had, yeah, 30, 39 and he had 16 and a half. 16 and a half? Yeah. That's a big chunk of it. But you know, if Burns and got who's our young guy? I do a Carter Carter. Carter, if Burns, yeah, if Burns, yeah, I'm seeing. Cribido's on the team. Yeah, Tipito's night, nice depth piece there, but Burns and Carter get more chips and doubles. And suddenly, the strength goes to a, it's a middle of the pack, fast rush. And, you know, again, if you're not stopping the run, if he's losing another big piece in the middle and your linebacking course weak and if you run stop sucks, like you said, then you got to bring a strength, I think, is your safety. You got to bring them up. And then like people are saying in the comments, you beat over the top and you can lose a lot of games where it'll be fun. It might be an over team. I kind of hope the offense is fun. Like once neighbors gets back, it might be a fun over team. Interesting. Okay. Any other thoughts about you, you kind of brushed over Wandel Robinson leaving. He ultimately was their top performing wide receiver last year. He had some chemistry with Jackson Dart. He started 15 games. Neighbors, how many games did neighbors even start last year? Four games for neighbors before he did the ACL. That's not going great. Yeah, I don't want to like glaze Wandel Robinson a ton, but he was a pretty decent slot option for this team. And it hurts a lot more because of what's left on the roster and what they forced to sign and the fact that neighbors is injured. So the fact that your wide receiver room is what it is now with bringing in a, a, a, Darnell Mooney. Who else? What was the other one? They, Calvin Austin, Judy Smith, Schuster, Odell Beckham, so many Odell Beckham, Jr. Braxton, Barrios. They brought in Titan/Wide receiver, Isaiah Lechley. Lechley is the one that I'm most excited about, how do I name those names? He's, he's a good red zone weapon. He's, you know, especially with neighbors, his outies valuable, but yeah, we got Calvin Austin the third. I hopefully just a partner turner, I guess, but it's pretty weak without neighbors right now. And yeah, like you said, you lose Wandel Robinson and a couple of these strengths we've seen over the last couple of years are floating near the bottom right now for me rating wise. Mm-hmm. Okay. Should we go there? Ratings? Yeah, I don't know. Just did you have anything else? DJ Reader? Mm. All, basically the DJ Reader edition, yeah, I mean, I know people probably are using that. Yeah, people, there's probably someone out there who's like a super giant's hard, or even a run game, a fishing auto, who's like DJ Readers and Upgrade over Dexter Lawrence in the run game. Okay. Fine. He's not as impactful a player in my opinion. Tremaine Edmonds, I was wildly unimpressed by his performance last year in Chicago. He'll play, yeah, but he's your middle-eyed back. He was available for a reason. Greg Newsom the second he was available for a reason. He's, I think he's league average, like he can, again, he'll play. He needs an outside corner. Mm. Yeah, Wanchon Mooney Shelby Harris holds Shelby Harris. Available for a reason. Yeah, it feels like, it feels like I need to go look up Shelby Harris age and it's going to surprise me. He is.
1991, so he's 34. That's that's all they thought. I turned 35 August. Daniel Falele came with Harbaugh. Yeah, Falele, Patrick, or Card, and Isaiah, likely, all came with Harbaugh. And and Jordan, again, you want more evidence that you might have lost the locker room and Adarius Washington as well, another non-needle mover. Like the fact that all these guys came with them and they're guys that I think Baltimore was fine with letting walk out the doors is more, you know, more evidence for eyebrow, you know, eyebrow raising. Anyway, yeah, I think anyway, it looks it looked like a pretty incomplete, it looked like a pretty incomplete team to me in terms of the way they treated their offseason. And then just real quick, the rest of the draft outside of Margot and Breeze, Colton Hood, he'll make the corner rotation developmental depth at corner Malachi Fields, Notre Dame White receiver. Maybe somebody see some time because of the general shittiness of the rest of the the rest of the White receiving core and then, you know, some depth pieces in round six. I don't think they had any fourth or fifth rounders. It doesn't look like because of some of the trades they made. So defensive line offensive line linebacker depth and special teams kind of depth. So we mentioned the losses, the big one, be a dexter Lawrence and basically at outside of Wondell and Russell Wilson who is done with this league and then we'll get to ratings. All right, let's do it. Bad. Bad. No, I think the seriousness, let's kind of talk about how you come up with a quarterback OC number here. I'm called I'm cool on Matt Negi. I'm expecting him to run a West Coast style scheme. To me that requires a quarterback who's, you know, this is has a different skill set. The quarterback scheme does not fit. I mean, the quarterbacks strengths. Jackson Darts strengths do not fit with what Matt Negi scheme, you know, ought to be relying on in my opinion with the exception of RPO. I don't think they have a talented enough wide receiver room to have, you know, kind of elite, you know, pre snap motion and, you know, kind of good spread option route running. I think the screen game, which is another signature of Negi's offense is going to struggle with the talent you have in the running back room. This looks like a misfit to me between what Negi would ideally want to work with them in the pieces he has in place. So I can't give Jackson Darts any type of bump as far as expecting him to take a step forward based on his early type of expected positive interference with the offensive coordinator. You refute that at all? I'm going to pass over Negi and talk about Callahan because I actually do like that higher as a quarterbacks coach coming over from Tennessee Tennessee. He's another one that's I think is maybe a better fit for getting more out of dark than actually Negi's scheme. And we'll see what the scheme ends up being. We got to actually see it first, but I'm kind of with you on trying to figure out exactly how those two mesh together, but Callahan brings a bunch of experience and, you know, generally the quotes I'm seeing from him is like, I'm going to let a quarterback play to his natural talents. I'm going to try to work around that instead of changing someone. So I do like that as far as what we've seen some of the success stories from quarterback quarterback coach, you know, mashing it out. So yeah, I'm not super caught on Negi, but I do like Brian Callahan coming in. Negi's system generally will like relies on a quarterback being able to make kind of quick decisions and have good chemistry with his wide receivers who are making calls on the fly for their outs. Yeah, a lot of empty sets. It'll be more motion, hopefully. And there's going to be a lot of screens. Yeah, I hope you like screens. What if we build the whole offense out of screens? Yeah, I don't know. Not much to get excited about in my opinion on the offensive side of the ball. And I gave a I think I finished last year with Jack's start rated in the twos because of his injuries issues he was dealing with. I'm giving him a modicum of a step forward with, you know, at the sophomore year. And I'm at four four, sorry, 4.1, 4.1 for quarterback plus OC combination in New York. Where do you have 4.6? Obviously, it was going to be a little higher. I mean, on the key, not the gallant higher, but it's kind of based on I think because he hasn't played football in six months. He's healthy. And that was like you mentioned, that's such a big part of him being effective. So this is one that can quickly move down. I think though, if it's quickly apparent that the scheme and the player aren't meshing. Okay, the skill group for me was a 3.7. I think this is one of the worst. This is this is I think the worst skill group in the NFC East by a good amount. Actually, my number is not that much higher for Washington, but I actually kind of came up to 3.7 because I thought I was being a little bit too hard on them. What was your rationale for skill group number on Jens? I'm at, yeah, I'm at 2.9. And obviously, I was too high here. Well, I don't know. Again, these are all very subjective. I'm using a lot of different stuff and trying to figure out exactly you know, who this is a really tough one to figure out. If you have a team with a lot of continuity and you kind of know who's getting the touches, you can make some pretty good guesses on generally what the offense is going to look like, but there's you know, a lot of turnover. And you got a bit of a committee backfield. You got a bunch of wide receivers who aren't inspiring a ton of confidence. And until neighbors get back, it's a really kind of a thin, ugly room. We'll see, I'll likely fits into this offense. That could be a bump up if you really start to contribute. But yeah, for now, it's it's a 2.9. That's one of my lower ratings. I think ranked 30th in the league for me. And again, what neighbors comes back to me is healthy eventually. It's a lot closer to, 20th, I think, maybe higher. Okay. Offensive line rating was tough for these guys because there's a world in where this is a good offensive line, right? Yeah. There's a lot of offensive lines like that this year too, where it's like, hey, I could see this working out because they had some continuity and they got a couple of pieces and then they got question marks. And the question marks always swing, you know, the injuries, there's always injuries, those swing stuff. But the question marks swing these ratings from, you know, what we put together in the summer to what we're trotting out there for like week five, week six. And yeah, at least three question marks, I guess? The entire interior for me is question marks. I think aluminum or an Andrew Thomas are good tackles. But the three guys in the middle for me were all question marks. I'm going to give, I'm starting out with a minus for the rookie just because it's, you know, it's unproven. I don't really like Michael, John, Michael Schmitz Jr. as a center. I think he's kind of bottom third in the league and John Runyon similarly at left guard as a bottom third for me. So I'm at 3.9 for this group. And, but I can see it. I can see a world where they impressed to the good. Yeah, I was higher here. I went four and a half, 4.5 exactly for me. It's like good left tackle, good other tackle. And then yeah, it's just, it's a lot of mush in the middle. I'm a little higher on Schmitz just because I think he needed some time underspelled. I think it's really hard to step in as a center in the NFL. And then, yeah, the, I would assume you start the rookie over Falele at right guard. But we'll see how that turns out the camp battles as we go. And yeah, it's, there's room for downside here, especially if you get an injury. And if, if Thomas gets injured, then I don't know what this offensive line is besides doom, they suppose. Fair enough. I am a Minnesota guy, John Schmitz, you want to use a go for? What, what does that get you far as percentile goes for the Jans? For, I am 39th 40th. 41%. Okay, so we're about the same ballpark. They're going to end up being around the 25th 26 best offense for me. And I think there's absolutely scope to go down if it turns out that the marriage between Dart and Niggie is no bueno, which I'm guessing is not going to be realistically possible. All right, defense, bottom five, even with a good pass rush. Is that kind of your thought process here? Yeah. And I'm not as keen on the pass rush as you think because of some of this stuff I really said, but you're, start with your pass rush number and then I won't get into buying because that's, I think that's our biggest disagreement. So I love Brian Burns. I think Abdel Carter realistically takes a, he wasn't a top three no doubt, you know, special.
talent in last year's draft for no reason. I think he's going to be pretty damn effective this year. I like the kind of kind of flexible piece you got in Reese in the draft. I like cave on Tibido as a change of pace guy although boy oh boy to see feel like a luxury considering the other holes you have on your defense. So it's a I gave them 7.2. I think you're going to generate a pretty consistent pass rush with these guys, but I also don't think that that's going to matter much because you really only need that if you're defending leads. And I don't know that the chance of doing much of that this year. Yeah, this was our biggest disagreement. I was below average on pass rush despite how good burns is and how I was feeling Abdul Carter is and some of it is just the output we saw last year. And I think maybe something you just said has me maybe wanted to dig in a little list because whenever we have a big disagreement, I was like to go back and look at my process and figure out like why am I so far off? And I did a little that earlier today, but some of it was just the output like they were middle of the pack for sacks last year. And you know, honestly when you're trailing our guest teams aren't dropping back deep drop backs is often that's going to hurt, but they were 21st and pressure rate. They're kind of it was middle of the pack as far as output despite having you know this one man man Brian Burns who was just you know absolutely reaching havoc at times. And as I mentioned a big part of the you know the issue for me is losing Dexter Lawrence. And like I said earlier, if you if you're getting more double teams and more chip blocks on Carter and especially burns then you know you might have a much even lower output at this point. And it's mentioned Tibito. It's it's like your only depth I guess I like him, but like you said, it's kind of it goes back to the roster building stuff. It's a weird spot to have excess at when you can use help. Maybe Tibito could gain like 40 pounds and become a DT. I don't think that's happening in the next month. And then yeah, again, your upside is leaning on younger players, which is sometimes tough at times too. So I'm going to I'm probably going to bump this up a little because this number just looks galling when I stare at it, but a lot of it was just based off output from last year and then losing burns and I had to go a little below average. Okay, I'm sure somebody will be mad about this. Okay, run stop for me was low. This was the worst run defense in the NFL last year. Did you have that? By the way, yeah, I have it and it's a 2.9 for me this year. It's 30th ranked. I'm at a 3.1, but I'm prepared to go lower. Yeah, you lost Robertson Harris and Lawrence and we bring in reader and Edmunds. So it's like a partial fill. It might be worse. So we'll see. And again, if this team is behind and you have bad run defense, you're not going to have fun in the right. I'm also assuming that Harba is going to stick, you know, stick pretty aggressively towards we're going to stop the run and that's going to expose this coverage, right? I guess like I was saying, my guess would be he's going to shuffle players and or put guys down extra guys down in the box to make sure that this is not a team that gives up running at the same clip that they did last year. Kind of a shocking number of brush EPA per play allowed last year for these guys. It was it was startlingly poor. The Bayad, this has a scope to go down. I'm at 3.1 for now. Coverage for me is 3.3. Again, I'm kind of building in some expectation that the way that they're going to scheme this thing is going to be pretty conservative on the running stop and that's going to expose some of these cornerbacks. I think they had some pretty obvious holes in their past defense last year from a coverage standpoint. I don't think Greg Newsome really addresses those holes. They have a meaningful problem in the fact that Diantia Banks can't beat out Paul Sinodibo at this point of his career. Colden Hood is an experiment. If he just happens to work out as a rookie, I'll be impressed, I guess, but I'm not expecting it. I don't think our derriest Washington moves the needle droop Phillips is not a great slot corner. This coverage unit overall to me looks pretty suspect and I think you're going to be able to throw on the Giants pretty comfortably. So I'm at 3.3. This is our second disagreement on the Giants. I was a little higher here. I had a 4.8. Again, a lot of it was just output last year where they were very middle of the pack in EPA per pass attempt. That's. You didn't have to throw. I know. Again, it was fine. If you are going to keep it more to the run, maybe these guys get diced up a little more. But everybody I looked at, it's like, you're fine. I get you're paying too much for Paul Sinodibo. That doesn't factor into how I feel about him as a player. It's like you're fine. The safety is fine. Drew Phillips is a solid, okay slot corner. Everybody's just okay. Same thing with you bring in the rookie. You hope he's like, "Hey, we have another nickel guy or we have another guy who can help out when we're putting up five, six secondary defenders out there." If he grades out to the better and ends up playing more than I guess even better, but I kind of just went with. There's nobody here that's a massive ceiling razor. It's just a bunch of floor guys. I think it's just slightly below average for me. Okay. Defense overall for me is in the 40th, 45th percentile. That's pulled up significantly by what I think our clear and obvious highlights on the defensive depth chart for past rush. I don't know if Abble Carter ends up being a bust, that's going to be pretty wild. They've put an absolute sh*t ton of their team building capital into the edge position. I think he ends up with like a 20-sax season on whatever team he plays for next. That's fun. You guys want to see a chart? Yeah. What do we got? This is our New York Jane power ratings. I wanted to just put it in chart form, but then I made a spider chart too. So you can see Drew with your cleaner on skill and past rush than I am. Harball, little higher on the OC, little higher on the coverage. But funny enough when you add it all together and this happens like 10 times a year when we do these where we have three or four disagreements but somewhere in the opposite direction and we ended up with damn near the same power rating. So Drew is a minus 3.2. I'm a minus 3.1. This is a team that wins what five six seven games. If things break well. Shake out normal to a little above average. The schedule is a lot easier. I think maybe that's my cue to switch to this. Oh look at that. Look at that. There's some wins. There's some wins here. Are there? A lot of wins. Yeah. You're going to have the balls to take the giants and survivor week four against the Cardinals? I don't know. That's not going to be a problem for us. Are we making it to week four? Well, I think you can pick against the Cardinals week one, two, three. It's a big question is, do you take them to go against the Cardinals week four? The I don't know, man. I'm not convinced that the giants are going to be four and a half point favorites at the end of the season against the Browns. I think the Browns have scope to be a better team by that point in the year. I'm not convinced they're going to be three point favorites at home against the Titans. I'm not convinced they're going to be two and a half points favorites at home against the Saints. I think this is a team that is the market is right now a little warm on in terms of fair rating. I think as it gets corrected and as some of these other teams maybe potentially surprised to the good at the start of the season, the giants might not be favorite in many this year. You could actually see them flip to being pretty significant dogs against the likes of the Jags and the Colts and the Niners later in the season. I don't think any of those games are going to be under a field goal. Difficult rest spots in a couple of places on this schedule. Easy travel, no unusual start times other than the kind of a funky Monday night football game week two. Rams are going to be coming back from Australia and the giants go out to LA and play on that night on Monday night football. Kind of a little bit of a weird one. Rams with extra rest obviously, but the travels kind of you know it's pretty much neutralized even though it's a road game. Cross country trip for the giants does matter. A lot of travel at the end of the season at Seattle at Detroit at Dallas all of those that final final quarter of the season. And I think as you pointed out like we're not expecting this team even if they surprise we're not saying like the surprises they make the playoffs. The surprise would be like they're not eliminated from the playoffs in the last few weeks and we you know it's it was a fun seven or eight win team that had some exciting games against some shit of your teams. But if it breaks the other way and let's say Cleveland outperforms their expectations this year and that's a loss it could be a pretty bad feeling going into the end of the year when you get when you get to the offseason if you just lost like six or seven straight because like you mentioned there's a lot of travel and a lot of tough teams.
at the end. And if you open that Cleveland game in the middle of that, you're feeling pretty awful as a Giants fan when you hit New Year's Eve. Yeah, I think they, especially interesting kind of sequences that Seattle, the Seattle Cleveland sequence, because Seattle's defense is going to smother you. And you're not going to be feeling good about your offense. And then Cleveland's defense obviously is taking a step back in the absence of Miles Garrett, but still should be pretty dang good. They have a really talented lineback in core. Byron Young is, you know, perfectly capable of keeping them above the Mendoza line in pass rush. So Cleveland, I think, is going to be the very interesting test for the Giants offense. If you don't prove anything kind of in that stretch, yeah, Detroit Dallas, Philly, you're going to get out scored in those three games almost surely. That's the nice part of the Cleveland game is you don't have to play Miles Garrett this year because he's not. Oh, oh, wait. Never. Oh, wait. You get him week two. Yeah, get him earlier in the season. He's fresher. Yeah, a lot of good pass rushers on your schedule, generally. Ton of a ton of elite pass rushers. So you better hope, Andrew Tom. This is healthy for all 17 games and keeps your keeps your boy Jackson dirt upright. Yeah. I mean, this looks like a four and 10 things like a four or five win team to be again. Yeah, I mean, the win total seven and a half. If you made me, if you made me make a bet right now, despite me being a little rosier, you know, I would take that under to, I don't think this is a some good value to win a NFC Eastern, you know, it's super balls, about 70 to one NFC's half that one bet that I think is very much overvalued. It's harbock coach of the years. Pretty, pretty sticky odds in some place where he's I believe at draft games, he's the favorite team and he's like five to one at some shops. I get that he's big name and you have this thing where you get a big name in a new spot and people get excited like look what he did. He took a team that won four games and they won eight games. Man, it seems like a lot. And even that feels like there's got to be like four or five guys that are having better seasons than him. I just don't understand him as a favorite. I'm not the kind of guy who wants to go be a market maker on Cal Sheefer, the opposite of that for nine months, but the odds for harbock to be coach of the year seem a little ishy. Yeah, does the question is does the schedule put wind in your sales if you on the know, you know, like does he immediately drift? Yeah. Can you just get out of that at some point? Can you get out of it early? Which I think? Yeah, the fact that they're favorite in weeks, three weeks, four makes that that's probably when you want to bet that. The fact that the Giants are plus 55 to win the East, but he's like five to one for coach of the year makes no sense to me. One of those should be shorter than the other and it's backwards. I would consider under six and a half wins for these guys, the plus one 47. I don't think seven's really going to be much of a sweat. I mean, the divisions, obviously, injuries could change a lot of things about the way we look at the NFC East, there's not any kind of world beater in this division ever, but team has its flaws. So could the Giants put together the type of campaign that wins a bad division this year and he gets the credit? Sure, but this does not feel like the Patriots last year where you have some sort of super putting soft schedule that you can take advantage of with your young quarterback, taking a step forward and launch that into a coach of the year campaign. No, it was one of the, I had a couple. It's funny. I put some like quick hits at the end that I was going to put to you and basically we got to them all already. So it's funny, but I didn't have mentioned that it was one of the hardest schedules in 2025. And right now projected it's middle of the panel. There's still a bunch of tough teams where I still not feeling good about taking upside with this team. The other, you know, by the way, the one was trading extra lourage for the picks, the right call. I think you think that's correct. And that we already had the hard body discussion in depth. So a little cold, but that's what happens when you talk about the worst team in the division guys. We're gonna be a little cold. It's not gonna, it's not gonna fix itself overnight. What would, what about Jackson, Darts performances are in the early going, which changed your opinion about this team to the tune of really affecting their rating? I mean, I've changed my mind on coaches before and I'm with you. I'm not like a naggy guy, but he just did spend some time with a lot smarter people than hopefully he'd been spending time with the 40th from Kansas City. So if they, you know, if he learned something and he can put together a scheme that really brings out the best, I think that's the answer. Yeah, because it's just ten years in Kansas City that you got better over here. Well, there's entries. Okay. I was in con place. I wasn't. I know. It's true. So that's where I, you know, I'm like, what was he even doing down there? Hopefully he was just taking notes. But no, I think that's the key is like if the scheme looks like it is partially or wholly responsible for Dart taking even a little bit of a step forward and he looks serviceable. Like if you get a, hey Jackson Dart's the 15th best quarterback in the league of probably a buying on this team. See, here's the problem for him to take that step forward. He's going to have to run more and if he runs more, he's going to get hurt. Yeah. See, uh, the Dart paradox. The Dart paradox. Yeah. That's right. You know, you know, you know, start. So that's right. Uh, scat about 2000 yards. You got it in pencil pen. No, pretty laughed at. Is it that the youngest we've ever seen a guy with like clear and obvious question marks about head injuries and the stage of his career is his second year player, right? Yeah. Was it second? Was it year two with Puka that we were kind of starting to worry a little bit if he had taken too many fighting people and stuff. So I'm actually worried about him. Yeah. Gotta move just off having fun. Um, it's hopefully it's, it's a nice committee again where he doesn't need to get that many touches so he can, you know, be able to walk with his grandchildren someday. But man, that guy has zero regard for his body at this point. Okay. All right. Giant soft bed against I'm just a hair below market. We didn't mention this, but uh, Giant's market rate is minus 1.9 minus 1.9 is their market rating. So we're lower. We're low. We're a little lower. Point lower. Point lower. Yeah. I think so. All right, man. Let's put a bow on this and uh, go talk commies. You can hit the music. I don't know if I can remember where it is. I have to go. To go. Go. Go. Let's go talk some commies. We did it in real. Yeah. We
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast discusses the New York Giants' outlook for the upcoming NFL season, focusing on their long odds to win the NFC East (plus 555).
The Giants fired head coach Brian Daboll mid-season and replaced him with Jim Harbaugh, who is seen as a controversial hire with potential decline.
Quarterback Jackson Dart showed promise but struggled with health and durability, taking many hits and sacks behind a makeshift offensive line.
The team lost key player Dexter Lawrence (to injury or trade), and the roster construction under GM Joe Shane is criticized as unclear and lacking vision.
The hosts are skeptical of Harbaugh's ability to turn the team around, comparing him to older coaches like Bill Belichick who lost their edge.
They note the Giants' late-season wins hurt their draft position, and they emphasize the importance of Jackson Dart's development for any future success.
Summary:
In this episode of The Deep Dive, hosts Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick analyze the New York Giants, the fourth choice to win the NFC East at plus 555 odds. They discuss the Giants' disappointing 2023 season, which ended with a 4-13 record despite some bright spots from rookie quarterback Jackson Dart. Dart started 12 games, showing flashes of talent but also struggling with health and durability, taking numerous hits and sacks.
The hosts highlight the team's instability, including the firing of head coach Brian Daboll and the hiring of Jim Harbaugh, a move they view skeptically. They compare Harbaugh to aging coaches like Bill Belichick who lost their competitive edge, suggesting he may have been carried by elite players like Lamar Jackson. The Giants also lost defensive star Dexter Lawrence, weakening their interior line.
The hosts criticize the roster construction under GM Joe Shane, calling it unfocused and lacking a clear vision. They emphasize that the team's late-season wins hurt their draft position, and they see Jackson Dart's development as crucial for any turnaround. Overall, they are bearish on the Giants, believing the team is unlikely to improve significantly under Harbaugh and that fading expectations for a quick turnaround could be profitable.
FAQs
The episode focuses on the New York Giants, discussing their offseason changes, roster, coaching hires, and outlook for the upcoming season.
The hosts see promise in Dart but are concerned about his health and availability due to his tendency to take hits and create sacks, which could limit his long-term success.
They are skeptical, comparing his recent tenure in Baltimore to other aging coaches who underperformed, and question whether he can turn the team around without elite talent.
The Giants are the fourth choice in the market at plus 555 to win the division, which the hosts consider generous.
The team lost key players like Dexter Lawrence and others, while drafting at picks 5 and 10, though the hosts feel the roster construction lacks a clear vision.
They recommend only betting on long shots or grossly mispriced odds at this time of year, avoiding small bets that tie up money for months.
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