NEW Final Poll Before The Midterm Shows Democrats Up BIG

Last night we got the final New York Times, Siena poll is considered the gold standard. At a time when Democrats are feeling very enthusiastic, this landed and made everybody worry that perhaps we're part of some kind of delusional level of enthusiasm because the polls were shockingly good. You have in Michigan, a dual al-Sayed up over Mike Rogers by 11 points, Tel Rico over Paxton by seven, in Maine, up six, in Ohio, up five, in Kansas, up five, in Alaska, up to in Iowa, up by one point overall, what was your reaction to the poll? Holy shit. I mean, it like my first question is, is this too good to be true? You know, some of these numbers makes sense. The Ohio number makes sense. A Texas number is in the warmer possibility, but up by 11 in Michigan, you know, coming. Obviously, this poll was taken before. Haley Stevens switched to a vote, but just coming after a day of Haley Stevens related Michigan panic was sort of a very disorienting feeling to see that poll out there. I think the, what's interesting about why, you look at these numbers, you're like, they must be too good to be true. We can talk about whether they are or not, but just taking them at face value, it's easy to see why Democrats are doing so well. So the Times does this thing where they do the cross tabs of all seven polls combined. And so Trump's approval rating in this poll is 38%. These 40 points underwater with independence. He is under 50 with white voters who didn't go to college. Those are all terrible numbers. And then you realize that they're so much worse when you recognize that Trump won six of these seven states and he won five of them by double digits. So this is an overwhelming in the Republican sample compared to a national poll. And Trump's at 38 and doing so poorly. And he, it's very clear that if this polls correct, he's just a giant handful around the neck of Republican candidates, a cycle. So there's been a lot of debate about whether there are some quiet, hard to reach Trump supporting voters. Very clearly the New York Times, pollsters and analysts are aware of this problem. They could have chosen to herd and find a way to kind of make these leads less pronounced, but they decided to go out as either legends or ancestors here. That's right. So the dual number jumped out to me, right? Obviously, look, there's the noise online and this was actually happening in the state. But regardless, the polls in the lead up to that primary were off, obviously, it doesn't, is that a place where you think, okay, if there's some kind of a missing piece, this is kind of where it would be or what do you think? Let's start with the broader question of, are these polls wrong because they're overestimating Democrats? No, I'm credit because he does not hurt his polls. He puts the results out there and lives by their methods is very transparent about his concerns when he had the poll that had Peggy Flanagan up 14 points in Minnesota the other week. He just said, like, this could be an example of overestimating Democrats. We don't know, but we used our methodology. We did it rigorously and here's what we found. And so Nate Cohn wrote an accompanying piece of this where he said, we've actually made our methodology even more conservative since 2024 to try to jam even more Trump voters in there. And when you use the 2024 methodology and their polls were pretty right in 2024, Abdu will be winning by 16 points and the Democratic lead in all but one state would be larger than in these polls, which does raise the prospect and I don't want to get too high on hope being right now, that a lot of the other polls are underestimating Democrats, like the polls did in 2025 because they're, they are so assiduously trying to jam Trump voters in there that they're overestimating this share of the elector that ends up being Trump voters, a lot of these voters stay home. Now that let's do the Michigan number real quick, it's adulcan win by 11, that would surprise me. Right. It's just sort of Michigan is a relatively close state. This is all the other polls suggest that this is more like a, like a four point race. But if you just like step back from the individual candidates and the money spent, Michigan is a 50/50 state. The generic ballot is about 10 if that's the case at 11 points as well within the range of outcomes. And then it would suggest that a lot of what the loud debate we're seeing online, pre-Haley Stevens, flip, post-Haley Stevens, flip is actually a pretty narrow slice of voters that are being moved, but then they may be, it may be important to them. I'm certainly hearing from a lot of people in Michigan that are very engaged in this debate, but one sign that perhaps as real and serious as that debate is among a small subset of Michigan voters, the reason Mike Rogers has been trying to make this about Jewish voters and Black voters is because a giant final battle for a subset of undecided, reluctantly reluctant of dual supporters is not going to be a difference maker when the broad momentum is against Rogers. That's showed up in the polls because even in the previous Michigan poll, Marabell had a few point lead back in earlier this month. Abdul was getting 93% of Democrats. He had done a better job in solving Democratic base in the camel of Harris voters than Rogers had done the Republican base. And even in this poll, they're essentially getting the same number of cross-party voters. So I think it's 3% of Democrats are voting for Rogers and 2% are voting for Republicans voting for Abdul. Basically, there are definitely, as you said, they're definitely undecided voters, but the polls suggest that there is a dissonance between the volume of those undecided voters and the sheer magnitude of those undecided voters. Yeah, and you'd have to also assume that if you're looking at who is going to be helpful and persuasive in the home stretch, maybe Haley Stevens is influencing some, but you also have Barack Obama and Slotkin, and virtually every other mainstream Democrat kind of rallying behind Abdul. Pots of America breaking news is brought to you by PDS debt. Are you tired of making monthly payments without seeing your balance go down? 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Speaking of undecided voters, this jumped out at me. Voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine point margin. Those that are shifting towards the Democratic candidates to a shocking degree, also having late breaking voters going the other direction, that was confusing to me. Yeah. I think, in general, I've always been skeptical of this question. Voters aren't totally honest about when they decided, they usually will say they decided. No one likes to say they decided five years ago or decided the moment they came out of the womb, which is true of most voters. It's funny. It's a funny thing, too, because really it's part of our political, because our political debate as a society requires having a deep respect in admiration for undecided voters, because there's not a lot of equity in saying that they should already know the answer. Collectively, we deeply respect and admire the undecided voter. People view it as a badge of intellectual honesty to say, like, I weigh the candidates and I make a decision, as opposed to what die-hard Democrats or Republicans do, which is have an ideology that's unshakable that informs their position, which will be more unfavorably. Yes, sorry. There is obviously this mathematical contradiction between the polls moving to Democrats and I decided moving. Part of it is more people, it's not really people saying that they decide who they decided to vote for, but whether they decided to vote. And so you end up, as time goes on, more Republicans drop out of the sample because they are less likely to vote more Democrats come in. Who is a likely voter? That gets much closer to who the actual final electorate is as you get closer to the election. Someone might have been a likely voter a month ago, but it's like, can I watch one more fucking Ken Paxton ad? Like no, as I'm not a likely voter anymore. But then the last piece here, which is why I find this shouldn't be so alarming to Democrats is for well over a month now, the vast majority of undecided voters are disenchanted Trump voters. It by some measures in Texas, 91% of undecided voters a month ago were three time Trump voters. So your problems are always going to get more of those at the end. It's just always a question of whether and most of those voters will actually probably decide not to vote. But the like Democrats are enthusiastic, they're excited, we love our candidates, we consolidate it early. Republicans have all reasons to be more hesitant, more tentative, more skeptical. And so that's why their raw vote share has been lower for a lot of this campaign. And also, by the way, even if you take this at face value and you say, okay, the late breakers are people that are going to reluctantly come home to Republicans, Michigan, a dual's over 50, Texas over 50, Maine over 50, Ohio shares at 49, so even if it breaks 80-20, he still gets to 50. You get to Alaska, you get to Iowa, and that could be a problem. essentially, but then you're talking about even with a bunch of late breaking deciders, according to this poll, breaking towards the Republican, you still have a chance of winning basically all but two of these states that they pull. Speaking of Kansas, which is one of those states where you have Adam Hamilton at 49% to Roger Marshall 44%. Things were just getting interesting. They were at the state fair and had a debate at the state fair. And Roger Marshall, Roger Marshall getting heckled. And he's getting heckled because he's being hit by the fact that as an OB/GYN, when patients couldn't afford their bills, he would send them two collections. And this is led to a massive, massive controversy that's clearly weighing him down, which led Roger Marshall to put out this ad. I'm Dr. Roger Marshall, and you should know the truth about Adam Hamilton's ads. Their faults plain and simple. When I practice as a small town OB docked, often serving as the only OB in the middle of 40,000 people, my wife and I decided to take care of everyone regardless of their ability to pay. We wrote off hundreds of bills monthly and one of every five patients received pre-care. Now to ensure that 40,000 canzans would still have access to care, we didn't have to keep the lights on. So we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency just like nearly every private medical practice does. To be crystal clear, the Kansas Bill of Rights ensures that no one can go to prison because of indebtedness. And I would never wish that on any patient either privileged to serve. My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over to an outside agency. I never had anyone arrested, not once, and Adam Hamilton knows it. Kansas deserves to know the truth. And now you do. I'm Senator Dr. Roger Marshall, and I humbly ask for your vote. Oh boy. I would say there's a great example of two things. One, when you're explaining you're losing. And two, this is very clearly something that Roger Marshall wanted to do. He is fucking pissed. He is in text messages with other doctors who are saying this is unfair, and he was going to do this no matter what. What do you think? Yeah, so it came out yesterday that his campaign put zero dollars behind this. And the only person who wanted to do it was Roger Marshall. So they just basically like lend him a camera crew for 45 minutes so we could run this ad to make him so feel better. I don't need if we had never seen a New York Times Santa poll that showed Adam Hamilton up by five. I would have guessed based on just this video that Adam Hamilton was up by five. This is what losing candidates do at the end is aside that he believes he is losing. And he wants to make a final statement for the record to make it very clear to everyone that he is definitely not the guy who arrested people who owed him money. He's very clear on that. Patients at his OBGYN practice. Yes, for as little as 50 to who would him as little as 50 dollars. Yes. And so that there is that thing is exuding loser energy. Any final thoughts? Yeah, like I just one thing like we're all going to debate whether these polls are right or wrong. They may be wrong, but I do and it's very possible the polls are going to oversample Democrats. Like I said, some of these margins I think are much bigger than seems possible for a Democrat actually to win. It's hard to fathom teleregal winning by seven points in Texas estate where we have not won a Senate race since 1988. And a three point loss was a gigantic victory only eight years ago. But I do want to just make a point here about why this sort of wins are plausible. In 2018, Democrats won the National Popper vote by about nine points. Donald Trump's approval rating was in the 40s. People love the economy. Even Democrats, they was going to go jump into the economy. Gas prices were low. The economy was very, very strong. Republicans were not as fired up as Democrats in election, but they were quite fired up. Donald Trump's approval rating, strong approval rating among Republicans was 66%. Okay. In 2026, Trump's approval rating is in the mid-30s. The economy's people hate the economy. The gas prices are four hours a gallon. We're involved in a war in Iran. And Donald Trump's strong approval rating among Republicans is under 50. His approval rating among white non-college voters, the lifeblood of magas under 50. When you compare what happened in 2018, if you had a big blue wave in 2018 under those circumstances, it is at least possible that you could have a much bigger blue wave. It may be even a blue tsunami in 2026 under these circumstances. And we hope it's true, but also this is our last time probably talking you before the election. And so everybody, you can't take it for granted. One other part of this is we don't know where those House margins, like if these polls are right, it suggests that there's going to be a bunch of Republican members of Congress who are going to go down. Some surprised to find out that they're going down. So wherever you are, you are very close to a district, or you are in a state that will be the difference maker. So everybody just make sure you get your ballots in. And make sure if you can call your friends, texture friends, and get everybody to get those votes in. Because we have to, let's hope that these polls are right. But let's also, let's go make them right. Yeah, let's go make them right. All right, Dan, thanks so much. And everybody, do us a favor. The only poll that counts here on the YouTube feed is your subscription. So hit subscribe and we appreciate it. All right, bye, everyone.