Nevada's Trump slump

We're just days away from the midterm elections, which means I only really have one question. How are the issues that we've been tracking all year, actually playing out on the ground? "A few weeks ago, I had it west to Nevada where the entire midterms can basically be summed up in just three words." "The Trumps Up!" Nevada voted for Donald Trump in 2024, but after his trade war with Mexico and Canada, strict immigration policies, and consistently high prices. Some of the people there seem to be having some buyers' remorse. That's according to one very important group that's super tapped into politics. We're in Las Vegas outside of the headquarters of the Culinary Union. Now, we're waiting for hundreds of volunteers to show up to canvas for state and local elections, and importantly, it is the first day of early voting. "How are you more days than to election day?" "I didn't see it all right." This week, on America, actually, midterms canvassing with the Las Vegas Culinary Union. 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Now, we're just a few mouths from the strip, but it's kind of a world away. These are the folks who power the casinos, the hotels, the businesses that make Nevada possible, make Vegas possible. So what's today? So I wanted to go to Vegas for three reasons. First, the media, myself included, has ignored the West for far too long. Also, I wanted to see how these issues are playing out. Among the working class Americans that will actually decide November's elections. Plus, we've been tracking the potential impacts of Latino voters in this mid-term cycle. And this union is full of them. So today we're going to be telling a story of Irene. We're going to be fine. The culinary union represents about 60,000 workers in Las Vegas and Reno. And in the lead up to every election, the union deploys hundreds of cooks, bartenders, and casino workers to knock on doors and mobilize voters. That includes people like Irene, who spoke at a recent Canvas launch event to inspire her fellow members. The culinary union plays an important role in state and national politics, especially in the Democratic Party. Now, today, they're focused on the midterms. But they'll also host a bunch of Democrats who are interested in running for president in the coming years. Like last week, when Kamala Harris stopped by. Still, just because the union leadership often endorses Democrats, doesn't mean that the rank and file always follow along. And in 2024, a lot of culinary union members voted for Donald Trump, which brings us back to that buyer's remorse we've been hearing about over and over. Are we ready? Even with our great union jobs that we had, we struggling. I never happened before, right? We're all familiar with what is going on with Trump's land. All of you guys who work in this casino, do you guys know that there are closing restaurants? You know what they are shorting in hours? You know what that was happening with immigration? He's affecting us when they're changing and arresting people in the middle of the street. Diana Valis has been the union's president since 2022. And before that, she was a rank and file member for more than 30 years, starting as a guest room attendant this Saturday, like many Saturdays in the months prior. Diana is kicking off another massive canvas operation. I wanted to learn three things from Diana. How is the Trump slump affecting union members? How are issues like affordability and immigration actually playing out on the ground? And what's the tangible impact of the union's huge door knocking efforts? You know, there's also the kind of political organizing you all do, canvassing, going door to door. Obviously, we're going to do that today. That's kind of not necessarily been the way everyone interacts with elections. Why is that kind of in-person politics so important for you all? The workers listen to workers. Our members are a majority of them are housekeepers, cooks, kitchen workers, people who serve in the hospitality industry. And we've been for years and years and years doing that and we see the results. When you knock and door and you talk to people because every other we're not talking about politics, we're talking about the situation that is going on right now. Yeah, we go and we knock and doors and we say are you happy about the cost of life? Are you? How do you feel about paying more money every time that you go to the store? To buy groceries every time that you go and fill it out, you thank your guests. It's more expensive. How do you feel about that? And what about health care cost? When we're talking about our own members, so people from the community too is like, okay, this is why politicals are important. Because through them, we can make changes that is good for us. Yeah, you mentioned health care costs and cost of gas as a concern. I was wondering about the issues. Like when you all are on the doors, what are the priorities that come out? Right now is economics. And like I was saying, everybody is struggling. And our members, they have a really good jobs. They have a good pay jobs. But even with that, the cost of everything is up to the roof. So the biggest thing is economics, but there is also immigration. Our members, the majority of them are immigrants, Latinos. So what happened to them, like looking at their connectionals, being detained and arrested, family members separated, it's very unfair. I mean, I personally, I say this a lot like, if somebody would tell me 10 years ago that this will happen in this country, I will be like, no, that can happen here. Specifically about immigration. About immigration? Yes, yes. I want to talk about those two issues. Let's go back to the kind of economics affordability part, you know, specifically in this state, there's been a decline in tourism. You called it up there, the Trump slump. How has that affected your members? Well, it's affected immensely because they're not customers. Like, let's say, I used to have my shift of eight hours or six hours. And now they cut it and I work in four hours. And instead of five days, I would now work in three days a week. So that is affecting them very in a big, big time. So that's been the key there. It's all a stat that said that even things like, you know, tours from Canada is down 30% in this state. Like, how has the last year? Like, is it just, is it been that tourism decline? the most. I guess I'm wondering since Trump came back into office, what are the ways you've seen his effect, most clearly, and you all's work? Yeah, the tourism from Canada and from Mexico, there has been decreasing a lot. Because when you increase tariffs to this country, you're neighbors. And that is the biggest group of people who came here to Las Vegas. And when you increase tariffs, where you are crushing their citizens from Canada and Mexico, public it, the pressing of the United States, people that are not coming here. 30% of the candidates, that is the people who stay here longer to spend more money in Las Vegas. And the Mexican tourists too, when that happened and when it's a group, when it's the president saying that, they're not coming. But then there's these other things like people from California Latinos that they came here on weekends and spend their money here, because of what happened with immigration, they didn't come. So that's also affecting that. Absolutely. I mean, on the immigration front, I mean, we have been tracking what polling would tell us was a change among Latinos that, you know, although Donald Trump had some success with the group in 2024, that there's been a sort of backlash in that year. And that a lot of it has been driven through immigration. You're saying you're seeing that kind of flip happen among the people you're around to? Yeah, because people who border for Trump, Latinos or non-Latinos, didn't vote for what is going on right now. They didn't vote for, for getting even American citizens detained and killed in the streets. Yeah. I mean, I remember, though, Republicans holding up mass deportation now signs, though, in the 2024 election, Donald Trump has certainly made no secret of his desire to conduct deportation specifically about, you know, Latino communities, Haitian communities, people who have targeted it. I guess I wonder, like, why did it take the reality of now for people to see that when that was kind of his campaign promise coming in? Well, he said they're going to the poor violent criminals. That is not happening. They're just taking, working fathers and mothers and the kids that there are there. And when somebody tries to oppose to that, then they kill you. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it sounds like what we've heard, which is that people believed him about that this would be a more targeted effort about people who maybe had a criminal history of violence. And that's not what we've seen at all in any of these cities. I guess I also wanted, though, to ask about ways both parties may mess up when it comes to talking to Latinos. Like, you know, if clued Democrats and some of that stuff too, like, what is a way that you think politicians could be better in terms of reaching people like your members? Our union is not a political organization. We support people who's going to support us, no matter what the party is. Yeah, after the break, we meet up with our Canvas volunteers and head out to Northeastern Las Vegas. At Talbets, we believe great style should simplify your life. Not complicated. Because when you know what works for you, you spend less time getting dressed and more time living beautifully. 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So, you know, whenever people money go down, they add it to go up. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good line. They should politicians to say that I asked them how this Trump slump was affecting him personally. And why he's decided to get so involved in politics. So I'm at house key. So if we don't have no tourists, then we don't sell any rooms. Yeah. If we don't have any rooms, then the GRAs are laid off, you know, I'm a linen attendant. There's linen attendants that laid off housemen. So it's really affecting everybody. Our wise financially is, you know, and that's been clear just over the last year. Like you've just seen it. Oh, yeah. It's progressively gotten worse over the last two and a half years. Yeah, because I guess post-pandemic was a struggle, probably, in itself. And now there's the tear. And now is all this other stuff. When will we start coming out of the pandemic? Then we got all the tariffs and we got everything that put us back right in the pandemic, actually. And the president was talking to us about, you know, economic part in tariffs on one piece. And then saying the immigration part matters a lot, too. Have you, has that played in two or all three of us also? All of this playing effect right now. Just like I said, it's a lot of the mentality and a lot of the things that are being done to, especially the immigrants and minority people that is just, it's really outrageous. As people scared to go to work, as people scared to come visit, it's just crazy. And in that in turn, then it will re-effects the economic part, too. I guess I was asking people some of this before, but like, you know, Trump won this state in 2024. He kind of won everywhere in 2024. You see any of that comment? Did you, were you surprised when that happened? Me personally, yes, I was surprised because I just, I, especially the second term, because I know how the first term went. Yeah. So the second term, it just called me by surprise because I was like, you know, we already read this story. And now we're going to go and reread it and we're finding out that it's worse this time around than it was first time. It does feel, and this has been true in polling, and it's kind of the, you know, reporting we've done across the country, that a lot of people, even folks who are willing to give them a second chance and help him win that second term, have really not liked what's happened. It's a lot of buyers' remorse. And you say, you're here a lot of that, too? Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now, when they're talking about the buyers' remorse, is that because of the economics and the immigration? Like, are they mentioned in the same things? Yes. And a lot of it really is people that I talk to at work. And now that we're being affected by, you know, the Trump slump, everybody's kind of like, oh, well, this is not what I signed up for. And it's kind of like, if you read the fine print, that is what you sign up for. So what's your strategy on the doors? Like, let's say that I'm somebody who voted for Trump, and, and I'm kind of upset with what's happening that I don't necessarily like Democrats. What do you, what do you tell me? I would just talk to you about how you feel about the economy. How do you feel about the changes that you want to make? What do you see? What are your problems? Yeah, so it's a focus on pocketbook, it's a focus on how your life is going. Rather than it is, maybe a defense or an endorsement of a Democratic party or things like that? I always endorse the better because I see the better in people. And right now, like I said, we have many different politicians that have many different points of view, but our strong Democratic candidates, they have the common persons point of view at heart. So it's, it's do you want your life to be be controlled by the wealthy or do you watch your life to be ran the way your life can be ran based off of your situation. (gentle music) - My name is Jessica Palomino. - And how long have you been in the culinary area? - I wanna say about eight years now. - Okay. - Jessica has also been knocking on doors all throughout the selection season. And the top issues that she's been hearing about are the same ones that we've been hearing about all across the country, mainly affordability and immigration. - Pantries are running low on food, not only that, but the rent is so expensive and nobody can buy a home. - Is there any way that you think Democrats could be better at reaching people like you, working class people, maybe we talk about immigrants or Latinos or however we wanna define it? Like how could the other side do a better job of pitching themselves to that community? - So I wanna say that, think outside the box, not only about themselves, but think about your neighbor, think about your coworkers, love them, love each other. - Last question is a question I asked. Your canvas partner, let's say I'm on the doors and I don't love what's happening right now, but I don't love Democrats either. I think that they stand for stuff I don't believe in. Let's say I'm against abortion or I'm against something that is a democratic social policy. Well, how would you talk to me on the doors to try to convince me to still come out and vote for them? - I would ask you if you had children, okay? And we are 49th in education. If you don't want to make a change for yourself, then make it for your children, okay? If you're living, paycheck to paycheck, you work two jobs, you leave your family to go feed them. I'm gonna say that do it for the future of your children and for them to have the American dream. I always want something better for my children. Even if I didn't get to have it in this lifetime, I know for a fact that my children will. - So I'm passive on it. - Absolutely. And change starts with you. (upbeat music) - Hi, what else are you doing? Are you looking for me, Adriana? - The reason why we're out here, we're actually out here canvassing for Aaron Ford and Mr. Horseford. I'm not sure if you heard of him. - Oh yeah, I'm about to name my name. - Oh, who? - I'm gonna give you a high five. - Yes. So how does it work? Do you sign up for a canvassing shift? Like, have you been doing this each weekend? Is it up to you? Like, it's, we're basically Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. And all Saturdays is more from like 10 a.m. to about 3, 4 p.m. - Culinary union members who volunteer to go door to door actually take a leave of absence from their jobs each election. That's how important this is to them. And the point is to drive turn out among their peers, working class voters, people who might be less likely to vote, especially in the midterms, but might be the most impacted by policy. - Yes, the value, it really is in each conversation that we have. Of course, we try to get out and get to as many doors as possible that way the possibility on the conversations go up, but it's really just the value of the conversations because the better the conversation, the more the voter wants to go out and vote, and then the more it turns into a word of mouth. Oh yeah, we talk to these people, they say X, Z, so. - And as someone who's been to a number of canvases myself, I couldn't help but get a little bit involved. Just the spice things up. - As we're talking to the culinary union today, because they're going around talking to people about the election. And so I think they're working their way up, maybe to talk to you, but we're talking to people about, whether they have a plan for election day, whether some of the issues that matter to them, if there's any, like are you someone who's thought about how you're going to vote? - No, I don't think we have to vote down here. - You just moved out here. Do you usually vote or not? - Not into politics at all. All right, forget the politicians. Is there any issue that matters to you? Is there anything that you think is messed up in the country right now that you won't want to be different? - Of course, though, there's cameras. Something's right there, black stuff. You know what? I need to go talk to that one. - Yeah, there goes talk to it. So tell me about that interaction of the doors. What would she say? It was very positive. She was letting us know that she really wasn't in the politics and she really felt like her voice, you know, didn't matter and once we talked to her about things in the community and about her rights as a woman to vote and just speaking on the future because she has two children. So speaking on the future, just help open her eyes to see that her voice really needs to be heard and she needs to cast a vote. - Did she make a plan at the end of it? - Yes. She actually asked us if we knew where the closest poll was and we let her know that she has a rec center right around the corner and she can go in there and they do the same day registration so she can register in a place of hope. - I heard you say after, this is why I do this. What did you mean by that? - Someone that did not have any intentions to go out and vote, just speaking to her. She switched her mind around and her thoughts and she's gonna go have her voice heard and that's what we want. (gentle piano music) - The union says diversity is its strength but in 2024 Trump made big gains among working class people of color. So I wanted to ask Alan Jessica about this dynamic specifically. Republicans have often pitted black and Latino communities directly against one another and they've had some success. So how realistic is a cross-racial coalition really? - In the African-American community, of course, like you said, oh, well, the Hispanics are taking all the jobs and it's like if they're taking the jobs, then why are we working? So it kind of went back and forth, but like I said-- - But that was a discussion that you were having in your community around 2024. Did you hear any of this stuff and how would you describe it? - I heard a little bit of it, but we know that it's just life. We've always been the black and brown community, even at work, we're tight. We're not gonna let anything break us down in a part. - It seems like that's something that actually the union plays a big role in 'cause folks have a shared alignment of values and things like that. - We're very diverse. - Very diverse. - Like he said, what do you think is the way to push back against some of those attacks? Is it just like having diverse friends and diverse life where you're not thinking about the abstract but you know individual people like, how do we make sure those attacks aren't effective? 'Cause sometimes it feels like they are. - I feel like we just gotta get out and talk to people. The problem is right now with society is everybody's so impersonal. Nobody intermingles anymore. So I feel like the more we get out and have face-to-face conversations instead of conversations over the internet and we become more personal, people start to realize that they're human, they're people, they have the same type of problems, they go through the same type of things that we go through. It's just having more person to person interaction. - I was gonna say that all the doors that I've been knocking on not only this time and but the time before, we all share the same things, the same feelings, the same pain, the same dreams. And it doesn't matter if you're a black, brown, orange, or whatever, you need to get out into the community and get to know one another and you know, love thy neighbor. - Yeah, lower cross helps everybody, you know. - This is clearly the bet for the midterm elections. Backlash to high prices, unite people of all types against Donald Trump and Republicans. But it's also a preview of the upcoming 2028 presidential race, considering that this state and this union will play an important role in sorting through the democratic field. Just this year, Democrats announced that Nevada will now vote second in its presidential primary. - This union has a unique importance in the presidential primary and that this state has moved up earlier in the map and I feel like y'all are gonna have a really big role in choosing some of the next democratic nominees. We've already seen some Democrats come to Las Vegas and come and show support with the union. It does seem as if you all will have a lot of voice in terms of the next presidential primary. What does that do? - Well, we're probably gonna be doing a movement like we're doing right now, but in a big scale, having more members, probably going to vote and knocking on doors and so on. - Is there a policy or a priority that for you all is top of the list that you would want a candidate to support is to make clear that they support the culinary union? Is there like a litmus test or singular issue that is most important to you all? - Our commitment with our members is that we're always gonna be with the people that is gonna support their issues. That's always gonna be that. What we're doing, what does union is doing? It's like organizing, [BLANK_AUDIO] one member to member and that is gonna continue because issues with with the boss they're always gonna be there issues with the politician they're always gonna be there and they're always gonna be people who are going to send up for those issues and that's one of the reason also that we run in our own members because they are members and elected off for elected off for elected off is yes that's that's also our vision we we always been visualized in that and and have our members involved and getting ready and say I'll do it and I run as I think about what we saw in Las Vegas it reminds me of the other places we've already been to this election cycle a data center town hall in New Jersey trumps UFC event in Washington DC even that Vivek Ramaswamy town hall in Ohio they've all basically added up to about the same thing this election is about more than right versus left it's also about the bottom versus the top and even though this is a show about seeing past the individual that is Donald Trump there's no denying how central he is to that exact dynamic the Trump slump isn't just about prices or immigration it's about an entire agenda that's been misaligned with most Americans America actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview and culture or politics you can also watch these episodes on the Vox YouTube channel just go to youtube.com/vox or click the link in the show notes if you enjoy our reporting and you want to learn more sign up for mind weekly newsletter midterms actually just go to Vox.com/midterms actually to learn more that's Vox.com/midterms actually this show was edited by Kasha Prasalian fact checked by Esther Gamm and mixed by Shannon Mahoney Christopher Snyder is our video editor and Kuhnui is our senior art director our executive producer is Christina Valis and our theme music is by break master cylinder additional support from Miranda Kennedy David Tattasher and Nisha Tatar I'm instead herndon and this is America actually running a business shouldn't feel like surviving a software group project one app for accounting another for inventory another for sales and somehow none of them talk to each other that's where auto comes in and all in one business management software that brings every part of your business together from sales and accounting to inventory and marketing all in one powerful platform no messy integrations no bouncing between tabs and best of all no spreadsheets stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system try for free today at odo.com/vox that's odo.com/vox at Talbitts we believe great style should simplify your life not complicated that's why we create timeless effortless pieces designed to be more loved repeated and lived in the trusted favorites that become part of your story the classics that always look right and help you feel like you're most confident self because when you know what works for you you spend less time getting dressed and more time living beautifully discover the pieces you'll reach for again and again shop Talbitts dot com slash I and a today