NCAA Tournament Thursday Slate Best Bets | 2026

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That's the truth for the win. God, I can't. Oh, I'm Miracle. I just took a water and got one from the parking lot. What's up, the generation? Welcome to the Big Vets on campus podcast. This is the college basketball NCAA tournament betting preview for Thursday. I'm stucky and joining me. Or my fellow BBOC coast, Christian and Greg. I'm so bored. I cannot wait to get into these games. It is the best time of the year. Everyone has hope right now. Your brackets are still intact. You're gonna win all of your bets. And hopefully we can help you pick some winners and help you fill out that bracket. We're gonna go through game by game on Thursday. Too we don't know about. Maybe we'll talk a little BYU versus their potential opponent who cares about the Michigan game. They're just gonna crush somebody. So we'll go through each of the 14 matchups that we do know on Thursday. After this later today, we're courting an episode with Duck and Calabria's going through every game on Friday. Also have a live show Thursday morning to go through the games, any updates, favorite bets, and cover any news. And then we'll do the same thing on Saturday for the round of 32. Greg, Mary Christmas, how it goes it? How's your week? This is one of the quickest. You would think that like, what's the longest for me is Thursday morning. 'Cause I'm busy every single second from selection Sunday, from the brackets release until Thursday morning. And then Thursday morning feels like an eternity. But this week always goes by so fast for me, which is nice to be this busy because it's still my favorite two days of the year. How you feeling? Feeling great. It is the best time of year, like you said, for people like us. I am distracted this week because I have my son's first birthday tomorrow. So my wife is just like running around buying gifts and decorations and organizing a party for Sunday. And I'm just like knee deep in 32 games, trying to break it all down. So I know you can relate as a father now, stuck. It gets a little different when the family starts growing up. But the joy, the passion is still here on Pup. Yeah, fortunately my wife is, she just knows, they're in football and basketball. She's right now I'm a horrendous father. So, first and how you feeling? I'm good. I was talking to somebody yesterday and they're like, all this week takes forever. And I'm like, we're on different planets. Like they're all excited for Thursday. Not that I'm trusting. I'm very excited for Thursday, but all of a sudden, you know, from November, from before November all the way until that brackets revealed, like everything, it's kind of in the frame of my mind, like what's gonna happen? The tournament, will I like this team and the tournament or not? And then to only have a few days to just get all my thoughts in order and stuff can always be a lot. But I'm super excited for this year's tournament and trying to relax and enjoy it a bit too. Yeah, I do, one of the things that I'm hoping, I do hope we get this, it's getting harder and harder to get more chaos in the early rounds as the gap grows. Now, on paper, theoretically, it'll make for more interesting and better matchups down the line, right? You think back all the years we've had upsets and Cinderella's, you know, in the elite A, the sweet 16, then you'll get like some team getting their doors blown off. But, you know, this year, the 13 through 15 seeds are all favor by at least 13 and a half points. In the history of the tournament, we've never even had all of them favor by 10 plus points. And this is a year after all of them won out, right? I think the closest margin was nine points. So I'm hoping that we get a little more chaos just because these two days lose a little bit of the roster, right, if it's just Joc City. So, but we'll see how it goes. Regardless, we have bets, which is always gonna make it interesting and everyone's brackets in the contest that you're in. This is always gonna be two of the most exciting days of the year. So let's go through these games chronologically. We'll start, right, when you'll hear the CBS music, which will just get my blood flowing 12, 15 Eastern on CBS in the East region. We have TCU taking on Ohio State in Greenville, South Carolina, Ohio State. Is it two and a half point favor, total 146 and a half. Ohio State went from, well, I don't know if they're gonna make the tournament to they're on the bubble to they're clearly in after a late season surge. Greg, I know you have a hot take here. What do you like? Yeah, I'm gonna be on the buck guys here. I think this is the draw that they would be hoping for a team that can't really brutalize them inside and whose offense just flat out isn't really good enough to run away with it. I think you look at key position matchups when he's go right for Ohio State. Their guards need to win one on one matchups, throwing him obli against small guards, I think is a reasonable outcome for them. And then I think they've got Devin Royale to throw a David Punch. I just think they like their chances in those key spots. TCU is good, don't give me wrong. I like them. I liked betting them a lot this year down the stretch, but I think this shapes up well for Ohio State stars to have a big night minus two and a half. I'll be on it. I will be against you here. I like TCU. I think when this matchup first came out, I said this is a bad matchup for Thornton. TCU will hedge their pick and roll defense is elite. 89th percentile for synergy. 24th percentile frequency. It's very difficult for a lead guard to run pick and roll the lead ball handler. Ohio State, that's their most efficient offense. Obviously with Thornton, a 97th percentile pick and roll ball handler offense. I think TCU can take the ball out of Thornton's hands. Force others to beat him, which, you know, maybe they can. Bynum has been great down the stretch. Additionally, a couple of things. I think TCU can live on the offensive glass here. They can get to the line. Gotta make their free throws. They're not a great free throws shooting team. And then Ohio State, they lacked depth. So if they get in foul trouble here, that could be problematic. Then Ohio State, yes, they've been very good down the stretch. But since February 1st, they're shooting 42% from three. They're 7% better than they were prior to February 1st. So if there's some shooting, looming shooting regression possible. And so I think TCU can win the shot volume here. They've been big games. They've been a big game team all year long. They've been a top 15 defense in top 100 games. They've played 13 of them. Ohio State, meanwhile, in top 100 games is 80. On defense, neutral court. TSU's been one of the best teams in the country. I mean, this is a team that's five and O against the spread on neutral courts, depending on what number you got. They blew out Wisconsin. They beat Florida on a neutral court. So, and then what puts it over the top for me? Give me Dixon over, Deepler. You're a guy, Deepler Greg, who now consistently ride with. I like TCU. Christian, I think this game's probably like screams down to the wire. I think it's a really good game to have kick things off. Christian, you want to break the tie? Yeah, I think you guys covered most of the main points. One, Wrinkle is I had the same thought about Bruce. And just trying to get the ball out of his hands, like aggressive hardheads. Like they're kind of like a Houston light and how they want to play. But something that Deepler has done really interesting is move Bruce off the ball more. That worked against Michigan. That worked against Iowa. And I mean, he, it's actually absurd how good he is. We don't talk about him enough because like you have like a break in and that league of Bennett stirred so many exciting freshmen. He is unreal and he takes care of the ball. And he's incredibly efficient. So like he's just the type of guy that, you know, when if this gets tight and in the half court and it's close in those last eight minutes, like he is definitely the best guard on the floor. And I think that means a lot. But I'm still siding with TCU because I just, I'm looking at what Ohio State did in non-con. Like you lost at Pitt. You know what I'm saying? You played West Virginia in double over time. They played Notre Dame in a one point game. I kind of feel like just familiarity with the big 10 and Bruce being a god, like carried them. Like they were great at beating the bad teams in their schedule. Like they're worst loss in Big Temple. It was at Washington, which is like on the West coast against, you know, a lottery pick. I, so all that to say, I'm leading TCU. I think punch and Edmonds and those guys are two athletic in the front court and to your point, Stucky Jamie Dixon's been pretty good in the tournament. You know, they won their first round game twice in a row. Lost to Utah State and then last year missed it. So he's hungry to be back here and I had one other point. What was it? Oh, Ohio State has literally six dudes. Gabe Cups is going to die if he's out there on the court against TCU. And TCU draws a ton of fouls or how is it with value? They have to avoid foul trouble here. And I counterpoint to myself as like Michigan is such a monstrous front court and like more athletic than them. And that should have been a matchup that punish them. But I mean, there's a level of familiarity seeing them for a third time. I think and they were able to really take the air out of the ball and like make that a half court game. I just think in a different environment against the team they haven't seen before, really aggressive with those guards, the way they defend, with depth. TCU's the side for me, but never fun going against Bruce in a setting like this. Yeah, I will say if this game is really close and I expect it to be, there's two things that there's one thing that could and TCU's going to get to the line at the time if they're calling it tight. TCU's not a good free-throw shooting team. Ohio State is over 77% on the air. Team shooting over 77% from the line over the past 20 years in the tournament, 101, 61 and two against the spread, 62.3%. And the big 10, they've been a wagon. And around the 64 last year, there were eight no against the spread. And since 2017, there are 36, 20 and one against the spread. 500 against the spread are better in all eight tournaments over the past eight. Wait, real quick, that's the first game of the day, right? Guys, I'm on like a seven year streak. It's actually unbelievable getting the first game wrong. I remember it was Louisville, Minnesota. I was a freshman in college. Ever since then, I've gone every single first game wrong. It's typically like an eight nine. Maybe it's the second game sometimes, but I've not had a perfect record alive by one PM Eastern. Like, I can't even remember. It's actually-- I do or you're just cursed. I will say we mentioned Michigan-- yeah, you mentioned Ohio State playing Michigan. I'm a Michigan player, Virginia Tough, on a neutral, which is worth noting. And one of the keys is going to be-- I mean, if mobility gets hot, that's when Ohio State is at its best. Greg, the one thing I'll just ask about Michigan, like, Ohio State played them close, Wisconsin without winter played them close, Purdue destroyed them. I think part of that was-- I'm not sure-- it speaks not good Michigan isn't the fact that they were in the Big 10 title. Do they-- I think they were just a little board looking forward a little to the tournament. Would you agree with that? Or is there something to worry about with Michigan? I'm in between on it. I think Dusty May was doing some out of character schematic things. I mean, he's not an auto bench guy. And when Kado picked up 2,000 semi-final, he just threw him on the bench, basically, to see, OK, what do we do? If we were without him in the NCAA tournament, I think O5 against the spread since the case and injury is something to monitor here. I do not think they're the same team, but I would not write them off based on anything you saw in conference tournament week. Yeah. I mean, you just got to-- they have such good-- their defense is so good that you-- and then after losing Kason, I think that he'll do this in the tournament. But you have to keep Kado in there to facilitate run your offense and just tell him, dude, it's OK to not be aggressive and you have room protection. So I think that he will. But you could tell that they're offense just didn't have any continuity or flow when he went off the floor. All right, let's move on to the second game on Thursday, 12/40 Eastern on True TV. The 13-C Troy will take on 4-Cide Nebraska. Nebraska 13 and 1/2 point favored here, total 13/7 and 1/2 in the South region. This game will-- he played in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Might get some Nebraska fans here. Looking for that first. Turn he win. Can they finally get it done? Nebraska, Troy-- Christian, I think you said that you have a strong take here. What do you like? Well, I have a strong-- I have a lot to say. I don't know if I'm back off. I definitely lean towards Troy. They were my favorite mid-major I had circled in. When I first saw the match up, I didn't love it because their two best players aren't great three-point shooters, but they're willing three-point shooters. And then I kind of talked to myself into-- Troy does get a lot of threes up. They got around top 53 point. I'm great in the country. And they do have some actual shooters in the Campbell Brothers and Cross-Half the Bench and Shoot of It, too. But I just love this dude, Valdez. A 6-7 dude who can create out of the pick and roll and the success that he had against USC and against San Diego State. And just chemistry-wise with this Troy team to lose four starters in the portal and then to just slide everybody up and have all your bench guys from last year become your starters this year and the fact that there's familiarity of all of them being here last year. I just don't know if Nebraska-- defensively-- defensively, Troy is, I think, Troy is rock solid. And guarding Nebraska's complex motion or dealing with the mass being on the perimeter or even down on the block. There's a lot to deal with. But I don't know. Just in a March environment, I was talking myself into Nebraska as a final four-sleeper a week ago. But now I'm just like, do I trust like Holyberg and Lawrence and these guys to capitalize on a Troy team that really wants you to go in the mid range and score there? I'm like, which guard is going to kill me off the bounce? Like last year against Kentucky was Butler and Brea getting in there and making plays and Garrison killed them. I don't know. I just think Troy's a really good mid-major. And I think we're getting 13. And one of these damn upsets has to happen. And this is one that I think is live. Yeah, I don't have the strongest take from an against the spread perspective. I can-- people out of here were making a case for Troy upsetting Nebraska. The reason I could see that-- the only reason I can see that-- I mean, Troy, they had some wild results. I mean, they went to triple overtime with a healthy USC earlier this year. They won at San Diego State and double overtime. You know, they beat Akron. But over the past month of the season, they beat nothing but drags. And then in the conference tournament, they played a team on playing four and four days and then six and six days. They do have like a physical front court that maybe can give Nebraska problems. But they're not a great three-point shooting team. And you need to be against Nebraska. They're also super relying on the offensive glass. Nebraska's pretty good in the defensive glass, limiting second chance opportunities. But I will say there is going to be three-point variance in this game, which is why I could-- you could say, OK, there could be an upset here. Troy is going to shoot a ton of threes, as you mentioned. They're not very good. They're not very efficient. And then we know in Nebraska games, they're going to shoot a ton of threes. They're 11th and 3-point rate. And they're going to give up a ton of threes. They have the fifth highest 3-point attempt to make a lot on defense. So what does that mean? Troy's going to be attempting a ton of threes. And what will crash first? Since February 1st, Troy shooting 30% from 3. They were 34% before then. So maybe some positive regression, looming. They're only 28% over the past month. So maybe they're due for a big day. But defensively, since we had to reverse teams of shop 25% from 3, they were 34% from before. We know Nebraska can get a ton of threes. So, can Troy make 40% of their threes here? 40, 45 can have a big shooting night? Then yeah, they're going to be in this game. If they're not and Nebraska gets hot from 3 and Troy's turning it over a bit, Sanford's getting some transition threes, I could see this being a blowout. So, I don't think it's the best matchup for Troy, but they're going to get their threes up. And if Campbell and company can get hot, they can make this a game. I don't have too strong a attacker. I give anything that. Yeah, I'm not playing it against the spread just because it's I think a huge number and too many people I respect see the Troy side of this. I don't see the live dog potential here. It's pretty simple for me. I know I'm being very, I don't know, elementary about it, but I think it's terrible matchup for Victor Valdes, who I love, but he's shooting 21% from three on ridiculous volume. He's two for 24 from three. Like you get the defense that forces bad shooters to make threes. That's the whole scheme. Anytime you run up against teams that are willing shooters that can't make shots, it's a dream matchup for the Nebraska defense. I basically didn't really consider Troy, just at first glance looking at this. Maybe I'll regret that, but one point I would just add part of the reason I'm kind of just in on Nebraska. I like their chances to make a little run in this draw. I mean, we're talking about like if they get there, a Florida Nebraska game could be interesting. They're going to get destroyed on the boards, but that back court that is willing shooters that can't shoot against that defense. It's like there's a little bit of a path for some interesting games here and everyone's out on Nebraska because they had a horrible month to conclude the season. I think it's a good time to buy low in general. So staying away for this game against the spread. I don't think Troy wins the game. I do have some Nebraska in a bunch of Calcutta's. Troy will change up defenses a lot with Scott Cross. I think they're one of the most zone heavy teams in the field. And also press to extend pressure to try and slow you down. Nebraska, they don't see a ton of press. Obviously in the big 10. They don't see a ton of zone. But they grade out the 97th percentile against zone. Obviously all those shooters and their ball movement. And they have enough ball handers to handle press. They're 98th percentile against the press. Again, small sample size but worth noting. All right. Let's move on. I do think Nebraska is interesting. Now just because of the variance in nature of them. They're very well coached. They just moved the ball so well. But let's move on to the third game of the day between South Florida and Louisville Louisville's a five and a half point favorite here total. 160. 5 and a half. This should be a track meet two teams that want to get up and down. Play very fast. This game is 130. He's there on TNT. And we'll be played in Buffalo, New York. I've seen tons of hot takes on this South Florida trendy dog. People don't everyone who cares if it's a trendy dog. You like it, play it. You guys both said I should rate one one five 10 now. Strong. You feel you both are tens on this game. You UCF ribbon three offense. They get steals. They get offense of rebound super athletic. Isaiah Nelson as an unlimited motor West Inus courtesy. This is son for those old like me is a player. Joseph pinion. Very talented player. And Louisville can be turned over at times, which make it usf in transition. Louisville's transition is not great. And here's if you're looking for an upset to red flags or maybe I should say three Louisville in like quad one games. That not been great. Like when they've had a step up. 357th away from home. 363rd in paper tiger factor. You have the mckel brown questions. But at the end of the day. It's still lovable. They're going to shoot a ton of threes. Which is a huge it's going to be a huge factor in this game if they're red hot from three. Not sure usf can keep up if they're off. Yeah, there's not going to be much of a difference between these teams from an athletics standpoint. And usf might have the advantage at the rim. Krishna, go to you first. What are you seeing here? I like usf. I think Isaiah Nelson being such a monster on the glass is huge here in just his defensive versatility. Like Louisville, whether it's through whether it's the Egyptian magician or Zougress who they've been using more lately. When those guys are doing the zoom on the perimeter, like I just think Nelson in the way this team has defended over the past month. Like is it good matchup for being able to just stay with that action and communicate until I make guys like McNeely. I mean, Conn will it's super good, right? And he takes a ton of threes like more than we've really seen in his career. McNeely, I'm kind of whatever on wooly and you know, he's all right. The dude who really I think could kill usf is Javan Hadley because usf will go with the four guard lineup. And Hadley's been playing really well. He's turned into from like kind of a high use it like a glue guy into more of high usage guy. Like he's a he's a matchup nightmare as like a kind of face up for can step out and shoot it and be physical. So he's the one guy I'm scared of. But in terms of just the guard play and the offensive spacing, it's very similar between these two teams. And it's just better vibes. It's southward. I think Hodgson might be a better coach than Pat Kelsey. I'm already willing to say that. And whether they have Mike, or not doesn't really change my opinion that much. Just because we he's been in and out and sure there was a period in the middle where they were definitely better with my kill, but I'm not sure he comes back in and does that. I don't know how much he cares about playing like people want to question Darren Peterson. Sorry. I'm a little bit more on. Like does my is my plan like 37. I've been into game. It's a fast two weeks is my KELVAT teammate. So I don't know. Maybe his back is just messed up. Maybe he's going to play and drop 30. I don't know man, but Nelson's a boss. This team has awesome chemistry. They're great on both ends. The game environments comfortable for them. I'll take the point. Yeah, I mean, I do think that like there's like with Wolley in there, he can get to the rim. You get more of a driver. I think Michael Brown, like just introduces more variance into the game because he could just he's going to get up a ton of threes, right? And he could get hot or if he's quite like so. I don't think it's like drastically that worse of a team, but there's a little bit more variance with Brown in there. And I think a little bit of a higher ceiling because of his talent. Greg, what are you seeing here? Yeah, I completely think if Michael's there, it does change the outcome. From my perspective, I think I'd be surprised if he plays or at least plays at full strength. I'm with you guys on the confusion with that bad vibes all around with Louisville. I am on USF to win this game. It's a simple pack LC fade for me. It's in the early time slot again, which I feel like is a gift from the schedule makers. There's going to be a little PTSD to last year when they were like the first or second game and just late neck. Yeah, I just I want no part of pack LC in March. I want no part of this Louisville team right now. I would also point out that Ryan Conwell historically has had some stinkers in big moments to end seasons. I mean, you go back even to his early days. He had that one for 10 game against seat and hall. A couple of years ago, he last year three for 10 against Illinois in the tournament when they lost. I just I don't trust anyone on Louisville to rise to the occasion. I think you guys laid out the case for why South Florida should feel confident. I think their athletes are going to be fine in this game. I love them inside. I think they can generate some second chances. And I think they can make enough threes to win a three point variance game. So I'm on the dog here outright. All right. I will say USA. I will be on USF. Definitely money line in some capacity. Round round. They're a good money line piece. Like you're looking to take a shot of the money line dog just because of the variance of Louisville. The way that USF plays and can match up athletically. And then, you know, the questions with Miguel Brown. I'll probably have USF advancing my bracket as well. All right. Let's move on to the fourth game of the day in the West region between high point and Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a high point took some money on open. I think they were from 12 and a half down the nine and a half. I think it's up to 10 10 and a half now Wisconsin got a little bit of buyback. Total 164 and a half. Very high total. This should be a fun game in Portland, Oregon. So some travel here to consider four both teams. This game is at 150 Eastern on TBS. I will say high point as an elite transition offense. But Wisconsin and their defense. It's much different than last year. Last year was more Baman drop. You coached. They're more aggressive now. They're turnover kings. They force a turn of turnovers. But here's the thing. Wisconsin doesn't turn it over. They also don't fail. High point likes to get to the line. And Wisconsin's transition defense grades out elite. So that is problematic for high point. High point does have an elite picking role defense, which is important against Wisconsin. But the competition shaky. Like that has to be mentioned for high point. They didn't play a top 100 opponent all year. Again, these early games, there's teams that have a lot of three point variance. Wisconsin is going to get up a lot of threes. And when they're on, there's just no way high points can be able to keep up because they're not going to get free points against Wisconsin. They're not going to be able to get out of the transition as much. Like I said, and Wisconsin is going to get a ton of threes. Are there bigs on? Are they making them if so? I think this is probably trouble for high point and they just won't be able to keep up. Should be a super high scoring fun game with lots of runs. We've seen that and look at that. A lot of Wisconsin games are live betting dreams. We saw that against Illinois. They were down 15. Looks like they were got to get blown out. We saw that against Michigan. Look back to about to get blown out. Look like they were about to blow out Michigan and look like they were about to get blown out. And then it comes down to the final possession in both. Greg, any update on No One Winter? Yeah, it sounds like they expect him back. He returned to practice this week. If it's full strength, full minute load, I don't know. I don't expect that. But I think he'll play. Yeah, and he opposite the rim protection for sure. So Greg, let me say you said, you're about a five and you're kind of lukewarm on a take on this game. What are you saying here? I've got to play here. It's not my strongest play by any means. But I am going to be on high point against the spread. If you can get it 10 and a half, I think that's a great number. I just look at a couple of things with this. You mentioned the spot stock. This is a weird trip to a 1050 local time tip off for Wisconsin who just played three games in three days of the big 10 tournament. High point has the travel too. I get it. But I just expect a sleepy, weird environment for a Wisconsin-- I think high point's been off for what, two weeks. Yeah, at least they've got some rest. I just-- I don't know. And then you add in, Chris just made you fun of me before we click record. I have all these psychological handicaps, especially with the big 10 teams I watch so much. This Wisconsin teams draw for this tournament is a death trap. I mean, they got served a guillotine, basically. To go through this game, then potentially Arkansas, just to get to Arizona. Like, I feel like they got to feel like they took a shotgun to the chest on Selection Sunday. I really do wonder how they're going to respond to that. And I think you look at the schematic nature of this game. High points, two biggest issues on the defensive side to me are that they are really vulnerable on the boards for second chances. Wisconsin is not going to crash the glass in a major way. And then the fact that they usually foul a ton and Wisconsin doesn't really get to the free throw line all that much. They just bomb a bunch of threes. So I think high points, two biggest vulnerabilities aren't really going to be exposed in this game. Can they win the turnover battle? Probably not against Wisconsin back court. That is so good at taking care of the ball. But can they at least force like eight to 10 in this game and cause some problems and get out in transition? I do think Wisconsin can get lack of days ago at times. And if it's just going to be a track meet and high point can get a couple of turnovers and get out and run, I think they're going to hang around in this one. I really do. I wouldn't take them on the money line. I wouldn't sprinkle it. But if you can get 10 and a half, I think it's a decent play. Yeah, I mentioned the game of runs. This might be a very good live that in game, especially because the start of this game could be very weird because you have, you mentioned Wisconsin 10, 50 A.M. local, just played three and three days traveling out to Portland. And they're going to shoot a ton of threes. How are their legs early? How are their legs? How are they adjusting to the time and in a neutral venue? Like are they just ice cold? Like I could see Wisconsin being down like 16, two, right? Six minutes into the game and then they go on a bigger run. On the other hand, you have high point, also new venue, also 10, 50 A.M. local on the west coast, new venue. And they've been offered a week and a half. So is there a rust there or like are they? So I think that the start of this game could be weird. And you could see one team jump out. And either of these teams can go on big runs. I think this is going to be a game of run. So I might be looking to bet this game live, depending on how it goes over the first five, six minutes if there's one team that jumps out. Because I don't think that either one of these teams is going to get up 15 and then win by 40. So it should be a back and forth game. I know you don't have any strong take on here, Chris. And anything you want to add a sense or two? I like Greg Zangle. I love Wisconsin. They got screwed with their draw. And I think that there's like they kind of set up as the team, the random team to get upset. I don't think high point will be able to turn them over. Like Boyd and Blackwell are just playing on another level right now. It's more so Wisconsin's shooting biggs is like the wild card that allowed them to beat Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and really catch such a rhythm in big 10 play. And high points, not like they have these-- it's not like they have Bodo Bodo like last year where it's like this big wrinkle to have those guys stepping out and shooting it. So I don't know. I think this is a game that could definitely be close. But I'm not jumping to go fade to Wisconsin right now. They're just-- those guards are just dialed right now. And that rap heater was unreal. Yeah, that was crazy. We're going to go on our next game. I'll throw it to myself for a word on Robinhood. What if sports were traded like markets? Now, you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robinhood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long. Use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robinhood prediction markets changes the game. It's people moving the action. So when momentum shifts, you can move with it. 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When I was breathing and seeing what's in front of me, everything just slows down. It just makes it feel great before I run the play. Just like Beeson, we all need a strong mental game on and off the field. Make a game plan for your mental health. At loveyourmindplaybook.org. Love your mind. Brought to you by the Huntsman Mental Health Foundation, the Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation, and the Ad Council. I went and sat on the little Ottoman in front of him. And I said, hi, dad. And just when I said that, my mom comes out of the kitchen, as she says. I have cookies and milk. This is a bad ass convict. Right. Just in five years. I'm going to have cookies and milk and milk and milk. Yeah. On a recent episode, I sit down with actor, cultural icon, Danny Trail, talk about addiction, transformation and the power of second chances. The entire season two is now available to binge, featuring powerful conversations against like Tiffany Attish, Johnny Knoxville, and more. I'm an alcoholist. And without this truth, I'm a die. Open your free IHAR radio app, search the Cino Show, and listen now. Hey, ambitious, well-intentioned, barotias, and wealthy mother looks like in the black community. This woman's history month, the podcast, Kevye Pazza's sweetie, celebrates the power of women choosing healing, purpose, and faith, even when life gets messy. Kevye Pazza's sweetie creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grade, led by women who have lived, inspired, and tell the truth out loud. To hear these in more, listen to Kevye Pazza's sweetie on the IHAR radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm John Green. You may know me as the author of the Faulkner Stars. And now, I guess also is the co-host of The Away End, a brand new world soccer podcast. I'm Daniel Alagon, a writer and journalist, and John and I have known each other since we were kids. My first world cup was Mexico '86. I was nine years old. I watched every game and I fell in love. On our new podcast The Away End, we'll share with you the magic of international football, all leading up to the 2026 world cup. For us, soccer, football is a story we've shared for over 30 years since Daniel was the star player on our high school soccer team, very debatable, and I was their most loyal and sometimes only fan. I love this game. I love its history, its hope, its heartbreak, and above all, its beauty. Together, we'll find out why of all the unimportant things football, soccer is the most important. Listen to The Away End with Daniel Alagon and John Green on the iHeart Radio App Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. - All right, next game up. We are headed back to Greenville, South Carolina where one seed, Duke, we'll kick off its tournament campaign against 16 seed Sienna, Duke, is open to 25 and a half point favor thought that was fair went up to 29 and a half thought that was outrageous One of my favorite bets to verse around Seattle plus 29 and a half I think it's come down to tick 20 and that's still like it there This line is crazy to me now. It could Duke win by 40 sure, but how many possessions are gonna be in this game number one? Not many I mean Duke Santa is super slow. They're a complete snail Duke is very slow as well. I do not think Foster and got them are gonna play why would you rush gun the back here? I don't and he's not even doing any on on court activities here I think there's a chance he plays in around - but Duke's not the same team We saw that and we saw these crazy numbers in the ACC tournament like they opened eight and a half against Virginia That got that down to six they opened 18 and a half against Florida State That got that down like these are like peak full-strength Duke numbers and Sienna look they can't they cannot get in foul trouble here They have no depth right now. They placed you played five guys in the Mac tournament But they generally do a good job of defending without failing as long as they do that Gavin as long as Gavin Doty or just to show It's don't don't get in foul trouble in the first six minutes Which is definitely concerned against Booser, but I would just like say hey Booser's gonna get his when he gets near the room is about the dunk. It just don't touch him Then I think they can hit enough mid-range jumpers and keep this slow this came down to stay within 30 This line is crazy. I think Sienna's more of a 15 than a 16 and You know they did lose Antonia Chandler, but their two-point defense been much better with a seven footer in there and Riley Movy the Iowa transfer he was outstanding in the Mac tournament So yeah, I mean Gavin Doty's a score like he And shouts can score in the mid-range there are top 40 team in mid-range attempt and mid-range fuel-go-percentage and that's where Duke like let you live and want you to live and The other key thing Brendan Coil who was did not lost from three-point line. I mean, this is a 40% three-point shooter last year Lost all of his confidence well over the past Month he's found a shot again. He went five of nine five of twelve two of seven I mean, this is a guy who was going like oh of seven two of ten this year he's shooting 29% but over the past Four or five games he's at 40% he has more confidence just a couple those three's goes a long way and The other thing Duke has all these like these injuries. They're not gonna like care if they're up, you know to push this so if needed and Sienna doesn't have that they're saying I was gonna play their guys the whole game If needed the back door wind the back door opportunity is gonna be huge like if they're down 35 with four to go Duke's bringing in all the reserves and Sienna will play it out with their starters and they you know they could finish on twelve to run So if needed the back door with the opportunities massive here, but just low possession game. I think This is way too many points There's a chance Sienna's like up in this game with like 10 in and then like an ugly game As long as they had a couple shots now they're not gonna win, but They can keep this within 25. I know you guys don't have any takes here. Anything you want to add Greg? I would be on the dog for everything you just laid out if I was on this But Duke is my title pick and I really want no part of step stepping in front of them at any point in this tournament Of course, do you have anything you want to add? Nope All right, let's move on to I'll head back to the south for the next game on the slate between McNeese and Vanderbilt and a 512 matchup 315 Eastern on true TV people make sure you find where your true TV is again. It's that time of the year There's no more. I mean, I guess I everyone should know now. There's there's games on true TV throughout the year But what was that show there was a show? An awful show that it was so scripted, but I would always end up watching some of it repo What's it called operation repo? Do you remember how that horrendous show I swear it's always in practical jokers that comes on now This is like this is like that. I don't know maybe like five six years ago, and it was like this staged show where like these These guys would go and like repo someone's car and then they would like They would be like a stage fight and Do you drag do you remember the show? I vaguely remember I have no idea what it's called, but I remember it being on constantly. Yeah All right, well, anyway Vanderbilt McNeese Vanderbilt Took a little bit of money on open 11 and a half point favor total pretty steady around 150 and a half You both have very very strong takes on this game you said so before I Did well, I'll share quick overview of this game. It should be a lot of fouls both defenses foul both offenses So a lot of fouls both teams are good at the line This is similar to high point Wisconsin in that McNeese look they're under screening They switch they gamble they help they're very aggressive on defense There are transition and Rimmer line offense So as a result, but here's the thing just similar to high point Wisconsin the high point wants to steal aggressive Van he doesn't turn it over McNeese is gonna press a lot you don't really you're gonna press Tanner and Miles So it's gonna be hard for McNeese to get many transition opportunities when they do and these transition days and great But Vandy can handle the press here, which I think is massive Now Vandy's defense does force you to work in isolation McNeese is pretty comfortable there I mean they have high level athletes. That's one of the reasons Vandy struggled a bit with Ole Miss like Ole Miss comfortable in isolation. That's basically their entire offense McNeese is fine working when they have to work in the half-core working in isolation But Vandy's gonna get a ton of open threes here like the aggressive under screening by McNeese gives you a ton of threes three looks and Vandy is an elite jump shooting team Who's like do for just a red hot day? Because McNeese is gonna just try to take away the rim right by under screening induced jump shots So I mean Vandy brought 97% tile Open catch and shoot frequency that they're open catch and shoot frequency when they get open looks 47% tile so they're gonna have a ton of open looks here if they're hitting and They're hot. I don't think McNeese can keep up here because they're just not gonna get the easy buckets in transition And they're not gonna turn Vandy over But if Andy's off right Vandy's not gonna kill them on the offensive glass, which they're also vulnerable wet because of their aggressive day so Again probably comes down to Vandy shooting, but I know you guys have hot takes on this Greg. I'll start with you. What do you think? Yeah, I'm gonna be on the dog here and From post post hide by remember last year everyone was on McNeese and now Yeah, they're a lot of love for McNeese the year after the year the we weren't just will-wait storyline here, right? I like it Fight will wait will wait in the plan in McNeese and McNeese not amazing. Yeah, I think Look, I have not been as high on Vandy as I think both of you guys have been throughout the year I'm fully expecting Christian strong side to be on the opposite side of me here in a moment. So I already know that yeah I here's my sort of stance on this. I think McNeese is Arguably the best mid major in this tournament and they're not really being discussed that way for some reason 11 and a half a lot of points here for a team that is 68th on Kenpom that has High major caliber athletes in a lot of spots here. I mean, Garwey Duol and Larry Johnson are guys that should be playing in Power conferences and aren't and are at McNeese and have had great years in I don't know. I just think We talk so much about like well Vandy's not gonna turn it over This is the number one steel forcing team in the country, right? Like they they could and if they do all the sudden you take away one of Andy's superpowers I fully agree they're gonna get open threes in this game, but I don't know I a team with a bunch of plus athletes that Kind of play chaotic defensively that have some size that can frustrate Tyler Tanner I don't think that's who I would want to see if I was a Vanderbilt believer here Then when McNeese is out offense like they can beat up Vandy in a couple areas where Vandy's really vulnerable They can generate second chances here. They can get to the free throw line a ton in this game I think and Vandy fouls a lot. So I see 11 and a half is just too many points. I really am flirting with Taking the money line here. I think this is a live dog, but I'll be safely on McNeese plus 11 and a half Yeah, I'm right now I'm leaning Vandy. I mean here just this is a good nugget from Matthew Winnick a good fellow on Twitter Which kind of speaks to the growing gap of you know, yeah, I know high majors versus mid majors You look at the 512 matchups it 512s are all power conference versus mid majors Top 25 power conference top 100 mid majors In matchups this year of that top 25 power conference teams top 100 mid majors The power conference teams are 12 and 0 with a plus 19 average margin of victory almost all of them were complete blowouts and McNeese just wasn't the same team This year if you look at the results when they couldn't force turnovers even against you know subpar competition the other thing worth noting McNeese Shot the three they were a very good home team this year and thrive in Lake Charles and their aggressive defense thrives at home They shot the three seven and a half percent better at home this year than away from home Chris, I know you love Andy You want to make your case and add anything here. Yeah, let's talk So this is our third straight, this our third straight year of McNeese in the tournament. What happened year one? McNeese enters the tournament 30 and three, which by the way, that was the year that they won at VCU, at UAB, at Michigan, before the wheels Completely fell off there and started to fall off there under You want to start to bring that up Greg? But anyways, I was one of the idiots that talked myself into McNeese plus six and a half against Gonzaga And Gonzaga came out there and said screw your defensive turnover rate. Screw your Shahada Wells ISO ball We're going to destroy you because we're a well-coached team. We're not gonna get pumped by the AU all stars of last chance You have dudes who got kicked out of their school, okay? And what happened last year Clemson scored 13 points in the first half and still only lost By what by two points they scored 13 points. It was Jaden Zachary just missing spot up threes and actually he shot He shot well in the second half whatever Clemson literally couldn't hit a shot and then what happens when they played a Well-coached team with a Ryan M. Hard Braden Smith type point guard Purdue got out early and controlled the entire game Tyler Tanner is in that category of a Braden Smith or Ryan M. Hard where he's not gonna be rattled by the AU all stars And yes, I understand that's a good point stuck you about them being comfortable in isolation and you know The kind of like Ole Miss and like McNeese run some very simple stuff offensively. It's ball screen go Hoop go score and Vandy just played Arkansas and I think Darius A. Cuff is a little bit better than these McNeese dudes and if Travon Brazil and Billy Richmond didn't get hot Vandy's an SEC champion and probably a three seed the committee so damn lazy They probably would have just like did a little flip flop if they had won that game So Vanderbilt is a ridiculously good five seed they crushed everyone in non-conference. They took care of bad teams I will say the Memphis game is like a slight at Memphis is real tough That's like somewhat comparable to the McNeese thing maybe but like it took care of everybody in non-con like I don't know man. I think they're so good. I don't think they're gonna get punked by the AU all stars And I think this McNeese thing is just Of facade that Clemson game was like the ugliest thing I'd ever seen like the least likable and endearing upset I can remember in my entire life and it's not happening against Vanderbilt that was against a Clemson team with one guard Sorry, I'm done Yeah, I mean I'm leaning Vandy for not for no other reason than To See Or a con Sulk wait one last it's Jurel We're gonna have we're gonna get stories on this kid but with the radio again I'm over it Well, okay, like just real quick. I sometimes get persuaded by oh they got like the down cop They got the down transfers from power conference. Yeah, Jurel Colbert fell of the rotation at SMU. That's why he's at Mignice like Larry Johnson got kicked out of crate He can definitely who be super talented. He can dunk whatever guard wall guard kicked off the team and see in all like It's it's the last chance you it's the we're more talented than their teams in the Southland and guess what team played them really well in the Southland UT real Grande Valley because Khalil Fettles a real good coach. That's an offensive skilled team They they that came went triple overtime in the South and you They can shoot they don't turn it over. Yeah, they can shoot and they're not they're like They're not gonna get pumped and Mignice just wants a pumpkin Or a con All right, let's move on you haven't seen man to get pumped this year By Texas By Texas and I think I think like this teams unpunkable because they're well-coached. It's a little crazy Texas destroyed them Texas or is a lot lower than that was a four-point game with eight minutes left And it was a road game and they were undefeated at the time Yeah, but I mean that's daily NBA players on that team and a team that draws fouls more than anyone in the country sure I mean, dude. I will I will also say that that is like Texas team that offense. It's very very comfortable and ISO So that's that is the one thing that I was worried. Yeah, I mean if Larry Johnson guard you all go for 30 each And Vandy doesn't shoot the three-well. They're gonna lose. I just I'm yeah Want to take to just trust the boys. I'm obviously I mean there's a Primer did a real like we'll see all like Tanners got to handle the length better than he did against Arkansas But it's very nice to have this is where do you have end up miles as huge having that second ball handler and But all right, let's move on to the next game Hawaii taking on Arkansas in the West region 425 Eastern tip on TBS This game is Will be played in Portland, Oregon Arkansas 15 and a half point Bavard total 161 and a half All right, Greg. I don't know if any hot takes on this game. I'll get a sentence for me if you have it after I'm going back and forth in this game. I still haven't decided. I think this is it's just a tough spot for Arkansas All right, they played three and three days they win the SC championship Like yeah, they they had all their brick layers went shot 70% from three against Andy like that I don't know if that's necessarily repeatable Calipari has been outcoached countless times in the tournament. I mean, he's two and eight against the spread as the 15 plus point Favorite for its worth. He's four and nine against the spread With a minus four and a half point Cover margin on average when he has a seven plus seed differential in the first round That's the worst of all time the least profitable. I should say right there with Mark few for what it's worth and You want to talk about three point Like a game where there could be some potential three point regression I mean, it's screams Screams why so if you look since February 1st Hawaii shot 28% from three. They are not a good shooting team, but they were about 33 and a half percent before February 1st Additionally, if you look on the defensive that and Teams against why who limits threes as well as any team in the country teams have shot 35% since February 1st before then was 27 and a half percent So maybe some natural correction there, but they've been on lucky since February 1st two well in the three Arkansas, meanwhile, I mean this team has been They've shot in 42 and a half percent from three since February 1st now. Are they a good shooting team? Of course I mean a coffers shoots 50% on catching shoot three is insane, but there are other dorks like They're not going to keep hitting threes and you know like Billy Richmond is like a 18% three point shooter Uh, you know, you can expect Wagner around 33% Brazil is what I don't know probably around 33% you can expect him over time So when they shoot nine of 12 those three combined yet their Arkansas is going to blow out a white now Hawaii plays a very very unique defense in that it's the most disciplined drop. They never help So they limit threes They have a fish Johnson is a very interesting seven footer. Maybe you can give Arkansas some problems but that that's going to result in a lot of ISO for Thomas and a cuff which is probably not ideal but there's a chance that Hawaii It throws out some unique zone here um And just I think we'll have some unique defensive looks and if there's one coach who's never ready for a unique defensive look In the tournament. It's coach Cal. I can tell you that it's Kentucky fan The what so what with all this to say like Arkansas does this too much talent Did the guard mismatch is huge now Arkansas doesn't force a lot of turnovers That's good news for Hawaii because Hawaii will turn it over their guards their point guard play Is not great. I mean they play in the big west and they rank 317th in the country in turnover rate Now the good thing Arkansas is not an overly aggressive defense. It's not a great defense in general You know there are they rank 240th in turn array But it's you are it's still the Arkansas length against Hawaii. So my fear is Hawaii turning it over is gonna now why is a great transition defense on paper now again they play in the big west now There's some teams that get out and run all day your your your fuller gins and northerges but This is that's not Arkansas. You're not playing against NBA guard So my fear is just Hawaii turning it over Incessantly and then Arkansas is going to score a will in transition But I do think that there's a path here where Hawaii makes this really interesting for a half um, and then just has Arkansas and a little bit of a But if you offensively and they're not prepared and then the talent will eventually just take over So I might be looking at like Hawaii sneaky Hawaii first half plus eight and a half first half money line um I could see Arkansas being down by you know couple at the half uh But yeah, I'm I guess I'm leaning Hawaii right now, but the turnovers concerned me because It's Arkansas would just eat them in transition and then you're just gonna have a cuff in isolation And there's no one that on Hawaii that can guard them. So I'm very curious to see what if Hawaii changes up their defense a bit uh, so We shall see uh person you have a ticket here Yeah, um I have a kind of great psychological angle here of Arkansas like Kind of on top of the world like they know how good they are. They're so talented. They're playing really well And now you're just like how do you get up for like Hawaii? You're early tip in Portland after three and three days so like yeah And Hawaii by the way is traveling from Vegas. It's not that they're not traveling from Hawaii. Right um So just like a bit of a sleepy spot in like with cow and and you know, I don't know Posting on to Vanderbilt. He he just says so many weird things sometimes I just quite like where the he's like we're not playing for the name on the front of our jersey. We're doing it for the back I get to about these kids stuff like that like I don't know He just said some weird things and while in theory like a cuff like nobody can guard a cuff He will get whatever he wants schematically like I agree we could see some zone and we saw that obviously with Oakland Kentucky and two I'm old enough to remember what in November Arkansas Arkansas didn't have a single head scratching loss this year, right? They're worst loss to Rad Auburn out Georgia and SEC play their head scratching games to me When they played Sanford and Winthrop very close at home and Sanford and Winthrop are teams that have low assist rate allowed like not Hawaii level of the commitment to the deep job but similar schemes and Arkansas only had 13 assists in both those games and That just makes me think you know There's a world or Hawaii can can definitely keep this close in and You know the you you're still down knock switches another I still think they're better with him It's a sleepy spot. It's a very solid defensive team from a league that has like historically done well in this league And it's 15 points. I totally think Hawaii could be up at half and it could be live. This could be that one It like we we talk about how this 13 through 15 seeds like they're all huge dogs and it looks like We might not get one this year. There's gonna be one random one and I can't like sell you because if they play this game a hundred times Arkansas is gonna win 80 of them 90 of them but Totally think this is one that I've got my antenna up for something weird could happen Yeah, one thing I do know is Arkansas will be unprepared. All right Let's move on to the next game Greg you have one sentence I I think boring Hawaii abandoning the no help defense that has like been the story of their season Terry say cuffs and nightmare matchup for them He's probably just gonna torch them in isolation song game for that 40 so I'd player prize But I think why you be fine if he had forward like whatever Get your 40s. We can get 40 anyway, but can't you adjust like are you really gonna be that close to Billy Richmond when a cuff is like going crazy? No, I think that they're they're gonna have to adjust That's probably the zone. He went zone against forward to so like they have changed at times Don't have a read don't have early wrinkles But all right, that's what one of the next game. I mean it comes gonna go crazy here But like wouldn't he he's gonna go crazy against that doesn't go crazy against every defense so in a way like if you got to help a little bit and then you just like dork Billy Richmond But you're you're not like losing your mind if a cuff gets 40 So but it's all why he has to limit the turnovers That's key because that's been a problem for them all year their point car plays very shaky All right, let's move on to the next game VCU North Carolina 650 Eastern on TNT in the South region and super fascinating six 11 match of VCU gets in on the final day by winning the 810 this game will be in Greenville South Carolina So you might get there's some VCU fans, but you definitely have a bigger UNC presence UNC 2 and a half point favorite here In some back and forth in the market total down a tick to 153 and a half VCU Do I mean they have an identity in coaches man you look at all their coaches back to Shaka or Odes Odum Martelli now Martelli is adopted what VCU's always been They're gonna have great athletes and they're gonna press and they're gonna pressure you one of the heaviest presses and in the tournament Here the interest that how this game is called his whistle was gonna be important I think because UNC doesn't really fail VCU wants to get to the line Attack the room VCU funnels you to the rim Where they have a lot of length or room so I think this is where UNC could really miss Caleb Wilson It's not the same caliber or Frequency of a rim attacking offense without Wilson But an interesting fact is that You don't want like VCU's gonna press and try to you know Cause this game to be a little chaotic UNC grades out super elite against the press they have ball handlers They're 97% of it suppress and One of their best games they played they played some fucking awful zones for what I mean awful presses like would Syracuse press them or Georgia Tech click. There's a lot of bad press, but they went to Virginia who presses a lot and They scored 1.4 points per possession and press offense and guess who was the guess who has a similar structured defense Well guess what the coach of Virginia is who's that Virginia tech VCU last year so UNC did go into Virginia and win Treaded the press and pressure defense from Virginia for what it's worth Greg, I know you have a very hot take on this game. I'm leaving VCU this game. This this game is This should be a thriller like this will be I Think last team at the ball wins. Really fun game. I'm gonna be on VCU out right here I don't love the press numbers. That's real. I mean, I remember Visibly watching them eviscerate the Virginia press that scares me It's a bad data point for this game, but just a point blank to me since Wilson's went down I don't think UNC is anywhere near the caliber they were before they're 49th and adjusted offensive efficiency 50th and defensive Efficiency since that injury To me, they're an overseeded team where they're at You have to play the value in the NCAA tournament and for them to be favored when that's the caliber they've been playing overall down the stretch for a month I just think it's a live dog situation. I think Joe Gavitch is good enough to at least play with They sorry can stretch him out a little bit and I think that that's a matchup you feel comfortable at least in matching the scoring with and then bottom line I like to use guards more. I mean, I think Derek Dixon's had a good season He's been a big part of why I think they've been able to effectively handle pressure defense But at the same time it's the true freshman his first NCAA tournament game with a lot on his plate without his superstar I think Nick Lewis is coming on. He just had an awesome monster game in the conference tournament So I'll take VCU outright just on a value play with Carolina not being the same since the injury Do you want to hear some crazy on North Carolina? Here's my bets on North Carolina. I've bet Five straight North Carolina games. I've been fading them. I don't think the market is properly adjusting for Caleb Wilson Here's how they've went I bet them I bet them against I should say for sure. I bet VATAC plus seven it pushed I bet Clemson plus four it pushed I bet Clemson minus one in the ACC tournament it pushed And then I had Duke minus 15 and a half And that lost on like Or seven I think minus 17 and a half that lost on like the ridiculous backdoor by a point and a half I'm oh three and one I mean oh one and three against the spread all and with but the games were decided by total of one and a half points so I if I bet this game the only thing the most important thing to me is I need the hook otherwise It's gonna push. Of course to do anything you want to add here? I agree Greg. I'm just kind of out on Carolina without VCU I'm sorry without Caleb and I just think VCU is better guards too much dixon too much trembles to inconsistent. I'm just I'm just out. Hopefully Bogo actually doesn't turn into Steph Curry like he did against Clemson All right, let's move on to the next game Greg let's go ahead to head Actually, no, that's that's we have we have some games in between Greg on your look in the fade BYU. I would I would tend to agree. We have the Michigan whoever they're gonna decide to eviscerate Those will be the games at 710 and 725 but we're gonna move ahead to matchups. We know Texas a and M St Mary's 735 Eastern on true TV St Mary's 2 and a half point favor total 146 and a it's a contrast bowl like you couldn't ask for bigger contrast and styles Then this particular game St Mary's wants to grind this to an absolute halt like did it against bandy similar vibes here I mean St Mary's what are they just played pressure assing ce teams every year in the field And then and then Texas and then wants to make this game a circus and they're gonna press Throughout maybe throw out them zone although St Mary's been elite zone offense this year Now and they want to pressure you they want to start turning this game into a circus Who wins like I Randy Bennett or Bucky I will say St Mary's did struggle some with the Santa Clara pressure this year a couple of times That's the best comp lead comp But the Texas a and defense is not they've stopped causing turnovers or turnover rates since February 1st is dropped six and a half percent since prior to February 1st. That's problematic Mary should live on the offensive glass here But the press might like take them out of their offense right and then Not allow them to get into their sets, but if they can just get shots off and not turn it over They're probably gonna get a ton of offensive rebounds here and some nice looks at the rim So a lot. I mean this is this is just like the biggest contrast you could imagine Uh You both are What do we Where am I done? Do I not have this game written down? Oh, you're oh Christian you're right you said one to ten you're take on this game You're a 15 So what do you like here? I don't even know what I like it's just it's the most interesting matchup on the slate And I've just been thinking about it nonstop and what's so interesting is this is the same thing that happened last year because I was like They were playing Vandy in the first round and I was like oh, it's gonna be death for Vandy like like having to deal with those guys in the post, slowing the game down, taking care of the ball. And what happened? St. Mary's dragged them through the mud 15, 56. St. Mary's couldn't hit a three though. They're a much better three point shooting team this year. And I have to make everything about Vandy, I'm sorry. But basically Vandy, it was just a lot of Jason Edwards having to like make stuff happen and, you know, fouling. And but essentially St. Mary's was able to set that pace, right? Vandy couldn't really speed the game up. What happened on Vandy in St. Mary's play this year? It was 96.71 in the Bahamas because, you know, Washington and McLaughlin and Ocaroca can space the floor, you know, Duke and Tyler were cooking. That was when they had Frankie too. And they, and they caused havoc. They turned the same version of the ball over like 15 times. And Josh Dent was coughing it up. So what happens in this matchup is A&M able to use their shooting and having AG at the five and Clemens in there. Who I know they've been starting the last few games. To really spread it out and create enough space for their drivers to get to the RAM and make things work in a half court setting. Or is it just going to be a nightmare having to deal with the bigs tapping out the office of rebounds. Wessels and McKeever are really skilled down there. And this team can actually shoot it. So last year Vandy would double the post to kick it out to Moralski as he'd hit the side of the backboard. Or, you know, it would be whoever. But now this team can actually shoot because they freed Mikey Lewis, Moralski's a better shooter and Dylan Shaw can shoot too. So I think Sam Areys is better equipped to deal with this pressure type team and what happened with Vandy and the Bahamas. That was obviously Vandy just elite. But I think there is a world where A&M can really speed this thing up, make it so make it same areas uncomfortable. They just haven't seen any team like tech Sam since Vanderbilt in November like an essay. But there's kind of similar. Claire pressures extends pressure. Yeah, but not the same. The goal of the same caliber Alan Graves gives you that AG that neglecting type of big. But in terms of just skill of the guards and ability to to make things happen one day or stuck in the half court, like it's still with with Isaacs and Lane and Griffin and Dominguez. There's still a lot of shooting. I have no idea what to do. So I'm sorry for misleading with the 15. I keep swaying myself to oh, like let's just lean with the bucky ball. They're more talented. It's going to be insane. But it's going to be fun. And we're going to rock with it. Or same areas just going to take the air of the ball. Dents going to take it in like I said, they're going to actually make their open threes this year and like last year. They're also the best free throw shooting team in the country. St. Mary's this year, which yeah, how is this whistleed? That's important. Yeah. But team air is also since February 1st, they're shooting 43% from three. That's the best in the field. They were 37% before. This is still really good, but. And definitely running a bit. And also to your point, Suck you about tech Sam's turnover rate being way down lately. Very important. But something to consider is just like. Now they're out of the SEC. The SEC was out of some teams that were really good taking care of the ball. Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Ole Miss, you know, is Josh would dent on that level of able to handle those. They're going to trap that first pass every time. Like it is held to go against. So when I can convince myself of why St. Mary's is going to be too much to overcome down low or on the block and the open threes they're going to be able to get. And in the drop coverage, making it just tough for like hill and lane to like anything around the rim. Then I come back to bookie balls insane. And it's like they're going to drive them nuts. And they're going to make it even impossible for those seven footers to get the ball and be so scrappy. So I'm just going to lose sleep over this game for the next few days. But it's the most interesting game on the slate to me. You know, I could see this. I could see similar vibes. I could see the game. I can see this game playing out similar to like what and shock me if this happened. Mary's kind of controls the game getting off into rebounds, getting into line. And they keep it in like the 60s. And does this remind anyone of Northern Iowa, Texas A&M. And Northern Iowa is up 69 57 with 44 seconds to go and lost. So like I could see Mary's being in control like the turn, but like A&M makes a few is pushed with the press and gets turnovers late. This game could be a weird late. One of the craziest comebacks in NCAA history. Can I get my thoughts on this? Yeah. I am all over St. Mary's here all over it. I want no part of bookie ball or at least not with this particular group of players. I think it is the most interesting stylistic matchup. However, I think Randy Bennett's a great coach. And I think with days to prep for this, they are going to figure it out and solve it. I think they can get a bunch of second chances. I think this Texas A&M team has been terrible for too much. They're three and nine versus NCAA tournament teams this year. They're one and six versus NCAA tournament teams since February 1st. They just got absolutely dogged by Porter Moser. I just want no part of this. And you look at some of the guys in this team, who do you want to put your stock in an NCAA tournament setting? Pop Isis? This is not the group of guys for the chaotic system to work. I think they get a bunch of credit for their one bookie ball, NCAA tournament appearance where they took Kansas to the wire. There was a Kansas team that visibly hated each other that had no success for three years. That was the right group for bookie ball to work against. St. Mary's is not at all. I think this team's too disciplined. I think they're just going to feast on a very undisciplined Texas A&M team and create some separation here. Wait, Greg just made a really good point that I didn't think of until he said it. In that Vanderbilt game, they lost by 25 November. That was on a one day prepping in MTE versus four days to prep for buckie ball. That's very different. Yeah, I think that might be Greg might have just pushed me over to the St. Mary's, but it's going to piss me off, though, and I'm watching just the 10-0 run. I had another sat ready. A&M is 16th in the country with 29 kill shots. St. Mary's is giving up only four all year, only Arizona, Michigan and Utah Valley have given up less kill shots. Yeah, I mean, I will say, yeah, they have, they didn't turn it over. They have very good back court, can handle pressure. Styles do make fight. So Ken Mary's handled the pressure. That's what I think this will come down to. Very interesting game schematically. By the way, what is March known for? Obviously, college hoops. Spring training baseball. Yeah, that too. But it's also known as the time when we have one of the absolute best deals on action pro of the entire year. Head over to action-ever.com/pro today to get six months of pro for $4,99. Get in now for access to all of our picks as soon as we log them in the app. No more waiting 30 minutes and getting stale lines. We'll also have NCAA player props powered by our analytics team that smash it every tournament. That's action-ever.com/pro to get yourself signed up today. All right, let's move on to the next game. Greg, let's go. Head to head to the lights late 925 Eastern. Penn, Illinois, Illinois laying 24 and a half total 150 and a half. Can TJ power recreate some magic? Penn comes back late against Harvard forces overtime and wins. He comes back late against Yale who inexplicably didn't fail and wins in overtime. TJ power went for 44, the X Virginia and Duke transfer. Little bit of positive news on Penn's front. Penn last weekend was without one of its better offensive players. And for Antiday said that Ethan Roberts is their leading score by like 0.1 over hour is back and practicing his concussion issues. So we'll see if he can go that would give a boost to their offense. I think Illinois destroys Penn. I will be on Illinois. I'm trying to this line got bet really early. I'm trying to see if it's going to come back down a little bit. It's going to be some buy back in the maybe with the Penn injury news. But I just think Illinois number one Illinois if they're going to hit their threes and they've been called for a month. If they had their threes they're going to win this game 110 to 68. But even if they don't hit their threes like if they have they had 40% that's what the score is going to be. If they don't hit their threes they're going to get every offensive rebound. They're going to score it well. There's going to be a layup line. The two point discrepancy between these teams is going to be stunning. I mean you look at this is a Penn team that ranks 346 in the country and 2.0 percentage on offense 292 on 2 point defense. Illinois can play it's drop and take away the three. They're obviously going to be like, hey, TJ power can't beat us and they're going to destroy them on the glass. They're going to destroy them at the rim. And this Illinois team they are just I'm curious to get Gregg's day because I know he likes Penn. I haven't heard anyone make a case for Illinois. Maybe only one. But this Illinois team is just the definition of all year that Tina comes up short in the big game and then just sandblasts these over match teams. I mean you go back to who's like teams that are in Penn's league. I don't know like Florida golf coast they beat by 50 by the way Penn played who'd Penn played nobody all year they played Villanova lost by 30. And in in in that game. I think it's the best team they played all year. They played Providence they lost by 25. They played half straight home they lost by 17. They lost by one at Rutgers but the best thing they played all year was Villanova they lost 90 to 60. 63 and pen shot 50% from three in the game. They shot 35% from two. Villanova shot 63% from two. So I just don't know how pen is gonna get any stops whatsoever. Here's pen's defense the thing it does well as its forces turnovers. Illinois never turns it over. So I don't know how pen gets any stops. Now you do have the friend angle the familiarity maybe Greg's going with that. I like Illinois. I think Illinois wins by 30 plus Greg. What do you got? I think Illinois wins comfortably. I am gonna take the points. Part of it is the friend angled the core of it though is I just I smell something with Illinois, which is the Brad Underwood this time a year thing where some guys are burned out and there's a weird vibe to it. You mentioned the three point shooting there do for some positive regression. Obviously the Vistach brothers are like two for 27 from three or something crazy in their last three weeks. But those guys have just genuinely regressed like as players. Over the full course. It doesn't even not matter in this game. They're gonna get every off at the rebound. It doesn't if they go inside those guys never want to be inside. They just float on the perimeter. I look. Wagler has not been the same part of the reason Illinois was so good through February was that Wagler was like the most efficient guard in the country. And he's just been good and I don't want to call it a freshman wall, but I think teams have figured out that if you just get a little physical with him put somebody on him face card him whatever you can get to him not his pen going to do that probably not. But Fran is familiar with what Brad Underwood runs he seen this before. I think you look at some of Penn's bigger games. They slowed their tempo down. They don't play as fast as they normally do. Illinois plays slow in general. If this is a slow game as I expect it can be. It's a lot of points, especially when I think Penn with Roberts back in the lineup has two guys that can just bomb three is over the passive Illinois defense. And I think there's at least enough data points like stuck you pulled out some games from November where they blitz teams by 50. You also had the UT Rio Grande Valley game they won by 14. You've got games against like Penn State and Maryland who are stinky big 10 teams that were single digits. I don't think this Illinois team necessarily has the killer instinct we want them to it just harkens back to previous years where it's like well they're due to make their shots. And they just insist on guys that aren't making shots continuing to bomb from three instead of taking those advantages they have inside it's kind of the problem with Underwood teams for me at this point in the year. There's rumors that Stoyak of it she's already two feet out the door ready to portal. I do not trust the vibes with this group right now. I think they have no killer instinct quite frankly to beat a team by 40 unless they get off from three and make 50% which stock you right if they do this is going to be 110 to 50. But I'll take my chances that Roberts and power can keep Penn within 24 points. All right we're going to head to that there let's move on to real quick yeah we got maybe the over I don't know but shout out early portal predictions to our coach to Ole Miss oh god I can see it all right let's continue on the nights late St. Louis Georgia should be a fun one total 169.5 I could see this I would lean on over actually there's a be shot making transition is the eight nine match up Buffalo New York 945 Buffalo New York late tip there CBS Georgia 2.5 point favorite sky high total. Georgia's going to press is that disrupt St. Louis say Louis half court offense is elite just half court against man can be shaky against zone even though they can shoot can be shaky at times against the press which is going to just like disrupt their flow Georgia going to press Georgia will throw zone out so this is like a very interesting schematic match up and then because Georgia might have to zone here because what do you do with surreal like because I'll be like and pull them out off the rim. This is a super super interesting schematic battle I will say people are like well Georgia's been a top 20 team over the past month well yeah they shot 43% from 3. Over the past month before then they were at 31% like it's been stunning there you don't talk about 3 point regression it's Georgia screams off the page but St. Louis also stumbled down the stretch shirts talked about how like his teams didn't have much confidence or not in a good head space he's talked about that a lot but maybe they gain regained some Mojo. In the 8th and tournament even though you know they didn't win it very interesting game here. Coaching match I think we give the coaching at to St. Louis I think that's your angle here Greg. Yeah I just want to back shirts I think he's a rising star and in his first sense he had tournament parents I'll take two and a half points with him. This isn't my strongest play but it's a play I've been very in on the St. Louis team and it's a good by low spot given how they finished the season. I mean some of those games little flukey to me they definitely aren't the team they looked like in mid February but I think that team is in there and I'll just take sort of the valuation by the dip on a team I really really like. Chris you have anything here. St. Louis I think in score well enough. This is going to be a fun game to watch there's me a lot of shot making. Yeah and they it's crazy how well they great as a defensive team considering like who their five man is like they're just very positionally sound in the right spots and and I don't know if George is going to get much easy I got it. I don't know if they can I don't know they can obviously get hot but. Oh by the way I missed 405 Eastern TNT in Buffalo North Dakota State Michigan State Michigan State minus 16 Michigan State by a million. These these yeah I don't really trust these summit teams in the tournament North Dakota State very aggressive defense this year they're going to like double trap that's where it's nice to have fears Michigan State offense is kind of broken it lately. I think it's probably right great give me take here on Michigan State North Dakota State. No I'm staying away from this one I don't want a summit lead team that relies on rebounding against this part and so also traveling out to Buffalo. Yeah North Dakota State. Yeah they want to work in so they work inside out and I don't know if they're going to force enough turnovers against Michigan State Michigan State three point defense has been badly. But it's always good so like I could see North Dakota State shooting like 20% from three in this game finishing up the nights like Kennesall State Gonzaga Portland Oregon. Tough tough draw for Kennesall 14 C to tremendous job after losing coddle to gambling investigation if you see he's eligible suddenly. Betkins Aga was for point shaving but he's kicked off the team but they don't RJ Johnson picked up to slack David great athletic offense a rebounders play super hard Gonzaga 20 and a half point favor to your view is not been good as a large favor with a huge sea differential in the first round for what it's worth total 154 and a half. Kind of lean Kennesall just finding a way to stay within 20 but no strong takes Christian give me takes here. Give me Mark few and round one. Yeah given Greg you have anything there. Least appetizing game on the card for me. And then finally talk about a yeah now you buy to Ho Houston yesterday was a 20 year anniversary the last time a big sky team won a tournament game Montana. They will take on Houston the 15 to Houston's a 23 and a half point favor to take in some money total 136 and a half on paper who's high to home matches up well. They good room defense they're good on the defensive glass. They can dole shoot threes and they can make them. But it's they're in the big sky like all that I don't know is going to work in Houston Houston. Pumels these teams in the first round. Calvin Samson as a favor to this Ranger hires 12 point cover margin wins by 40 32 28 like destroys these teams. I can't wait 23 and a half. But I'm not betting I'll Christian any take care. Yes the one thing that people forget about is in 2024 Houston was weirdly in a game with Cleveland state in the 116. That was like a game in the second half they won 63 52. So that anecdotally in my mind I just feel like Houston crushes all these teams but that was proof that they might not so I'm not running to lay the huge number. Yeah that I had to use I usually bet Houston as these big favorites. Now that was northern Kentucky. I'm sorry I said. Cleveland state and that was weird because I was one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. And that Houston team is like a story of a good on the offensive glass. And. Yeah they own the problem is two stones and turns it over 17 times in that game. Cleveland state from I guess they're in the same league. Here in the same league. All right then. Greg you have anything Houston I don't. I want to play Houston you played out the case here. I usually am on Houston in the opening round under Calvin Samson. It's usually profitable. Obviously there's data points against it too but just across the board. That's been a good angle. And I think an Idaho team that is the fifth best defensive rebounding team in this sport. And I think that's the most important thing that I've ever seen. And I think that's the most important thing that I've seen. here for you know, Rasmussen and company to deal with. But you know, quote, Mitchell, he could he can get hot. Berkner, I didn't quite as decent team, but it's just too much of that. So there's some variance there, but I don't think the athletic and talent gap is going to be massive. But congrats to the boys in Moscow. It's good to see them in the dance. Alright, before we get out of here, I do people for people, people going out the brackets. So you got winning at all. And you and your final four, if you haven't finalized and you could say subject to change. Final four for me, I got Duke Houston, Michigan and Purdue. I'm going Duke over Michigan in the championship. Christian, I've got Arizona, Michigan, Houston, Yukon, and I've got Arizona over Houston. I will share mine on the Friday show. Alright, that'll do it. All the games on Thursday, broken down a couple hours now will do Friday, thanks to Greg and Christian for joining me most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in. Thanks to our producers as well. We'll have the Friday games breakdown myself, Duck, Mike, we'll have live shows Thursday, Saturday, 10th or 10th of Eastern podcasts. We'll be back next week breaking down the sweet 16. Can't wait for that. Enjoy the games. Get your turn. You start off. Good for wish you luck. And I'll be right here. We'll catch you on later, cheers. [Music] Action network reminds you. Please, gambler responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24/7 at 1-800 gambler. I love it. We're the world of TikTok meets your playlist three words that will change your life. Search for I heard TikTok radio, make it a preset and stay connected all day. Everyone needs to take care of their mental health, even running back. Beijon Robinson. 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