NCAA Tournament Friday Slate Best Bets | 2026

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So he just goes throwing up the basket under the basket. It's the truth for the win. God, I can't. A miracle. I just took a water. Hit that one from the parking lot. What's up the Generonation. Welcome to the big bets on campus. Podcast. This is the NCAA tournament betting preview for Fridays. Slade. I'm stucky and joining me today. My fellow BBOC cohosts, my Calvaries and the one and only Josh Nunn, aka Duck. If you already missed it myself, Greg and Christian went through every game on Thursday. Today we will go through every game on Friday chronologically. Two matchups still TBD who cares about the ones he will touch on. Potentially the other. But we have 14 games to go through. Help you fill out your brackets. Find some potential winners. I will say from a betting perspective Friday is my. I prefer for I have more games I think I'm going to be betting on Friday than Thursday. I do like the slate. So can't wait to dive in with you boys. I will give you an offer. We'll give our final four championship looks at the end of the show. I will give you an opportunity. I'll give you 30 seconds to share something you like for Thursday if you'd like. I will say one thing I forgot after the podcast is always someone like I wish I mentioned. St. Louis in the St. Louis game. Robbie Avila's planner fresh. Like how he's going to be an important piece to drag. So we're allowed but like how healthy is he can go full go that's something just can flare up. So I just wanted to mention that. Cabri so go do anything on Thursday you want to mention. So there's there's two games that I like same game parlay's because I feel like they're correlated to the events and it's Hawaii plus the points and under 161.5 against the hogs and then St. Mary's laying the two and a half and under 140 and a half against the Aggies. Hawaii I do think they're going to go zone. I think they have no choice. You can't leave a cuff in man-to-man with no help. So I think it's going to be a different situation not something that they put on tape all that much this season. So I think we're now relying on calipari to have those in game adjustments. Not necessarily the best track record in the world in the NCAA tournament doing that. And then from the St. Mary's perspective. I've seen this before with Randy Bennett. I know how he's able to impose his will in terms of tempo. I think this one is already graded out with the sports books kind of leaning and showing their hand a little bit that they believe that the Aggies are going to speed this game up which if that's how they felt I think this one should have closed closer to a pick. So I'm going to go ahead and take the correlated events plus 2.50 plus 2.65 in the market. Either one of those prices is good both on the Bose catch and points and under and the Gales lay in two and a half and under. Yeah, A&M's turnover rate is evaporating if they can't get that go. So I have to do under Randy Bennett in big games. It should be able to control tempo. I don't mind that look. Do I have anything you want to mention for Thursday? Yeah, I like Wisconsin's team total over 87 and a half against high point. The big south is on an 0-1-5 against the spread run in the NCAA tournament. High point plays very, very fast. They're going to press almost 94 feet almost exclusively the entire game if not three quarter court. They're going to gamble defensively and good luck turning the badgers over. Wisconsin commits turnovers at the third fewest rate in the country and Greg Gard has these guys playing faster than any Wisconsin team ever has. These guys made 15 threes against Michigan. They can shoot. They can get to the rim. They can get to the stripe. I just look at Wisconsin's point totals against some of the elite defenses they've played this year. 90 or more against Illinois twice. 97 against Purdue. 97 against Michigan State. 91 against Michigan earlier this year. I just feel like Wisconsin is going to be able to shred this high point defense. I think stylistically it's a bad match up for high point. High point may hang around and keep it within the number if they can match the scoring. But I think Wisconsin surpasses the 87 and a half and I think they push 100 a year. Wisconsin by a very good line bet if they get down early. Running running team. All right, let's move on to Friday. It's late. Let's kick things off first game. We'll go chronologically. 12 15 Eastern on Friday on CBS. Can already hear the music. Nothing better before that first game. Kentucky taking on Santa Clara. Kentucky's a three and a half point favorite total. 160 and a half. This opened lower. Kentucky took some early, a lot of early money. Been some buyback since. I think there'll be a little bit more Santa Clara money. I will tell you personally, Kentucky gets another early tip. Our early tip. You gotta be kidding me. We can't have joy here in Lexington so Kentucky's probably losing. I don't think it's a great match up for the cat. Santa Clara will pressure you. We'll extend their defensive pressure getting the gaps and they can match Kentucky with their athleticism. Santa Clara is a very, very good team. Love Allen Graves. This team is dangerous. The problem is I just, I can't figure out a Kentucky. They are of a strange nut to crack. They're also very streaky. Additionally, they will start games, countless times a year. Start games horrifically. And they get down and then they'll mount. Come back and but then where there's a little bit of a wrench in here is the committee didn't do, they didn't do me any favors. More of my wife I should say with this tip time. But they didn't do any Santa Clara any favors. This is a 915 AM local tip or 1015. This is an early morning tip in Missouri. You know Kentucky's going to have an enormous fan base presence there. So they're going Kentucky fans are going to travel. So they're going to have like a slight home crowd effect. The early tip. Who gets out to the fast start here and how's that impact this game? I will. I know you guys don't really have any strong takes here. I get at 3.5 it's Santa Clara or nothing for me. Do you have anything you want to add? I just want to add this. If anyone's on defense and they're thinking about going with Santa Clara, this has been a special year in the WCC. They sent three teams to the big dance. So they were tested throughout their conference schedule. And when you look at the noncon, they played some really good mid majors who ended up making the field and low majors. Like they beat me. Nice they should have beat St. Louis and that's when St. Louis was white hot to start the season They tested themselves against you know some big 12 teams as well So in terms of the the shock the athleticism that they're gonna see from Kentucky and the brand of basketball I don't think they're gonna be out of their depth now. I'm keeping my money on the sideline for this one I don't have any official play But I just want to give a little bit encouragement to anyone who's thinking about back it back in the Broncos in the spot Yeah, I mean if you just filter and look at these teams versus like elite competition turning teams top 100 top with the I mean Santa Clara has been the better team. They have the more reliable two point offense And they're good on the offense of glass too. Yeah, I think I'll win the shot by battle Because I think it's okay. We'll struggle with their pressure. It could talk. He will turn the ball over Santa Clara can I think at least battle them even on the glass win the turnover margin battle and As a result win the shot volume Calling up. Both these teams are streaky though. So like if this could be a good live betting game Like if Kentucky does get out early. I would like the back Santa Clara live The whistle will be important because Santa Clara with their aggressive deep does foul Frequently They need to avoid foul trouble. Kentucky is a team that is gonna get to the line and if They're you know, you got to home crowd contingent forcing the friendly whistle that could have something that could have an Impact on this game. I don't know what's strong take but a three and a half at Santa Clara or nothing Duck What do you got here? Yeah, I like Santa Clara very well coach and a much more formidable WCC team for To square up against Kentucky here than you might think I would worry though about Santa Clara and how much they're gonna crash the Bords because their transition defense is poor so if Kentucky wants to run on these guys out after misses If you got all your guys trying to get offensive rebounds Kentucky might have some transition layups here So should be high scoring or at least the ability to have that with some higher tempo and Thinking it's a game that could come down to the wire. Yep All right, let's move on to the second game where we have some stronger opinions. Akron, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas See they're on an eight point favor total 156 net this game will tip a 12 40 eastern on true TV and this will take place in Tampa, Florida. I Look there's a lot of talk this line opened a bit higher. Akron has taken some money Every single year you're gonna hear about oh, this is a trendy underdog I can tell you I've been doing this for The bed and college basketball for over 20 years There will be trendy underdogs that get demolished. There will be trendy underdogs that win. I feel like the game better I mean I can point to countless examples both ways. I will say Akron is it is a trendy dog Also sometimes dogs are a little trendy and then people think on Twitter because Twitter is an echo chamber And there are people that like a bet initially and then everyone just follows along So keep that in mind as well Twitter's a very very very small percentage of the actual betting world I but Akron on Twitter Akron is trendy. I love it It's first bet I'm first second first but I made an internment said it right when the draw came out that I like Akron Don't care that it's trendy now. I will say Like Akron is a team. I wanted the bet in the dance in Texas Tech is a team. I wanted the fade so I was like oh, okay Perfect they got matched up together now. I will say just Akron could get The Akron could lose this game by 25 if Texas Tech is red hot from three and Akron is off I mean you're going to get lots of three point looks from three against Akron Their perimeter defense is not great and Texas Tech is one of the best shooting teams in the country now Akron had soul has the game even if Texas Tech's hot and scoring Akron's skills the capability of matching them here. I mean to Akron is also one of the best shooting teams in the country Tech does a better job of limiting looks from the outside, but their pick and roll defense is sad It's very very poor on I think I think that 17th percentile nationally, which is something that Akron can take advantage with Tavari Johnson and company. I mean this Akron team has legit high major athleticism with the mahafys Liles Johnson running the show Their seniors all over and then you just you have some guys who are just Absolutely dead dead eye shooters. I mean Liles can step out in the pick and roll with the in the pick and pop. He's hitting 38 percent He's been cold lately. So be nice to see uh Him I think he went like oh and or one for 14 in the mack terny be nice to see him hit one early, but uh You know Tavari Johnson hits near 38 percent Chimaz Scott who hit that crazy step back to winning the mack title. He's over 42 percent on the year Uh, and then Bowen Hartman is just that guy out there to stretch the defense. He's a tough shot maker to he's at 42 percent So this team can flat out score and I just don't now they want to play fast up and down. There's probably going to run in this game I'm just not sold on Texas Tech without Uh without JT Toppen. I think he's that important. I don't think I think he would be just A massive issue here for Akron if he was playing with his passing ability Uh, and in the pick and roll because Akron struggles defending pick and roll as well But you look. I mean they lost Toppen. They made some adjustments. Macassan's a great coach and look he's had He's gonna have eight days to prepare so I I respect him But John Gerst also a good coach one of the best Against the spread that we have He'll make great in game adjustments as well. So this is a really good coaching matchup. Mac teams have done very well with seven plus point hundred dogs in the tournament. I will say Like soup so when you look when they lost Toppen lost him against Arizona State They played the corpse of Kansas State and blew them out Had an impressive performance against Cincinnati and then they went to Iowa State It was like a 20 point shot quality loss like they they just made every shot And then they lost at home easily to TCU They lost at BYU And then they were destroyed against Iowa State in the big 12 tournament in a game that was never competitive And I think that part of that Was you're seeing the impact of the loss of Toppen So this should be an exciting game to watch. There's gonna be shop makers all over If Texas Tech is on Fuego from start to finish and Akron is cold from three Tech will win by double digits, but I'm willing to back back Akron eight or better I think is fine like where this open 910 is where I'd have it with Toppen um So I'm fine back in here and look Texas Tech What if you want to talk about a team that potentially Could be in first and maybe some three point regression that love they shoot they've been shooting 40% all year but I I don't think that they can I just don't think that they can maintain that level. I know they have great shooters Without Toppen and his passing ability and the attention that he draws and If I just look I mean three point net delta since February 1st a lot of this is without Toppen Texas Tech's running plus 11 Plus 11% means you take what they're shooting from three and what other teams are shooting. They're plus 11% So yeah, I mean the only team higher than that running better is Howard at plus 12.8% and in a game where there's going to be some three point variants Maybe that regression crashes down on Texas Tech and favors Akron. I like the zips I'm trusting girls. I'm trusting these seniors. I'm trusting Tavari Johnson great guard battle with him And Christian Anderson one of the best in the country Mike you agree? Yeah, I'm on Akron here plus 260 And you hit on all the major points, but just to kind of get into the weeds on what Texas Tech has been like without Toppen I mean he was Rodman asked on the glass for them throughout the entire season prior to the injury and since his departure They fall on outside of the top 300 in defensive rebounding percentage. That's a major problem when you pair it with the fact that since he's left They can't turn anyone over 358th in the country. So it all becomes dependent Not just this game, but you know however long their run is in this tournament on Christian Anderson Who's now nursing a growing injury because he slipped on that glass. I mean, Zachary here match him shot guy. I'm wise right exactly And I mean listen he's Embrace being the star go to guys averaged over 37 minutes per game 14 shots without Toppen in the lineup Which the shots and the usage aren't necessarily the problem the problem is that there's also been an uptick in his turnovers He had a three game stretch where he turned it over 18 times And Evan Mia like dives into every single kind of stat that you can get into he graded them out as a D in terms of the turnover issue with him He's in the 11th percentile of point guards in the entire country So he's gonna score the basketball. He's gonna facilitate for his teammates But he's also gonna help Akron keep it pretty close in terms of the extra possession battle in this game So I agree I think if we can just get 35% from long range from the zips It's gonna be a sweat in the final four minutes of this game. So I'm gonna go ahead and take them on the money line Doc Same side. I think John gross He's been at three NCAA tournaments in a row now. This is his best Akron team And I think you know my castlin has been so bizarre about the tempo with this team this year and at times they've run But they've really truncated the pace the last Eight games of the season. Let's call it and I really think they're gonna miss Toppen here against the zips when you look at Akron. This is not going to look like a Mac team. They've got dudes at all five positions that can rebound the ball well they pass well they can shoot and I could see Akron with their pace really wearing on Texas tech Texas tech plays fewer bench minutes than anybody in the tournament only six percent of minutes come from the bench. It's like 19 minutes per game from the bench and You get those guys in that situation and if they're in the game late and they start believing Akron is at their worst when they're a big favorite They seem to get bored they get disinterested on defense that will not be the case here Akron's showing up and they will look like a much different team than when we saw them in the Mac tournament and Shama Scott and Tavari Johnson can shoot it from the logo the defense can match up well if they can guard the three point line just a hair better than they had all season I think Akron's right there. So same side plus seven and a half think of these locker rooms too Akron is ascending that this is their moment They win the Mac they win that tournament. Well, especially after being down that whole game Yes, it's like coming back and winning's gotta be just like your plan They got to feel like they're playing with some house money here and then to flip it for Texas tech They had the best collection of wins in the entire country They beat Arizona Duke and I'm missing another one Houston like they clearly with top and had an opportunity to win the national championship And maybe they're probably saying all the right things and Christian Anderson can play like an all-american That's great. They're not winning the national title. So that has to be you know I thought at least in their heads if not being said in the locker room. So I think if things you know go against them whether it's whistles or a cold shooting streak in the first half I think it's gonna be easy for them to get down emotionally where Akron you know as a stuck put a plan with house money Yeah, I don't mind the sprinkle on Akron either Or advancing them there's there's not three point variance in this game like I wouldn't I wouldn't be I also wouldn't be sprouting I'm gonna talk one by 20 like I said, but I like to zip. Sorry. That's one of the next game 135 Eastern on TNT We have the one 16 matchup between Arizona long Island Arizona's take a little bit of money you're up to a 30 and a half point favorite Over the NAC champ total 150 and a half These aren't my like I there are once in a while like a 116 like I really like Sienna plus 29 and a half Stylistically low possession game. I don't I'm not in love with laying 30 and a half like hey just But if I had to I probably would I won't be betting this game. This is a horrific matchup for Long Island So when you look at Long Island they have to score in transition and at the rim well Let's look at their opponent Arizona rim defense fourth percentile allowed efficiency in rim defense 90 Okay, well, maybe they can get out in transition. I don't know how because they're not gonna get any rebounds But Arizona's transition defense 90 eighth percentile I don't know how long Island scores or gets a rebound or anything. So Yeah, like a long Island needs a force turnovers get out in transition. They have like attacking wings They also turn it over a bunch, which is gonna fuel our zone is transition I mean, this is just a matter of like I'm close to the number so like how much is Arizona care at the end? Is there like a run late Like I think the only time hi Arizona Arizona's given up two 10 O runs all year two kill shots one was to Iowa State and then one was uh When they played uh It was super early this year. It was when they played Norfolk State Um, which they won 98 61 But I think the Norfolk State closed the game on like a 14 O run So like something like that that like that's how long Island could cover this game Like Arizona's not even three point reliant so like you can't even say like over long Island can hang around if Arizona's not making threes Is a bad matchup for long. Obviously a 116 is always gonna be bad, but like just thematically This is ugly uh So I would lean to Arizona duck you have a strong take on this game I do I like the under at 151 150 and a half We're still okay and Long Island's team total under 61 and a half L.i.u has no choice but to really truncate the paystown rod strickland is a good coach in the NEC level And he's really built the sharks team on defense Trust me when I say offensively they cannot shoot long Island cannot shoot threes They shoot fewer threes than anybody in the country other than 10 there 355th and 3.0 percentage They're not going to be able to get to the rim here if you look at the guys that are the prototypical scores on this long Island team Malachidavis and Jamal Fuller They need to be able to procure effective paint touches Not happening here They're not going to be able to make threes. There's just not a lot of a lot of Scoring prowess on this team. This was this happened not just once or twice This was on numerous occasions for Long Island that they struggled in league play against Stonehill Wagner new Haven Two surpass 60 points I don't think there's any way that they even sniff that here You already mentioned to Arizona not being reliant on the three And I'd take it a step further that it's preferred that they don't shoot the three and they just they don't shoot a lot of them So we're not going to get the barrage of three point shooting on either side here And then looking forward to a about with Utah State or Villanova looming I just don't see any reason why Arizona is just putting the throttle down when you get to the under eight time out in the second half And they're up by 25. It's low and slow grind out the possessions do everything other than take a shot clock violation Long Island is really really gonna struggle. This is a treacherous matchup for them So team total under 61 and a half full game is is also one I believe strongly is going under Carbys guy anything that Yeah, I got an exotic here Because it's difficult to find any value on the Arizona side But how about this Arizona to never trail in the game plus 105 Long islands 216 in Kenpom Arizona played 16s in that neighborhood or worse They went four and two in the never trail department now the race to 10 by the way just for frame reference is Arizona minus 700 Race to 15 Arizona minus 1200 race of 20 Arizona minus 2000 So yeah, I mean Arizona's gonna win the tip right exactly. They're gonna win the tip You get that first possession and then you're just hoping that you don't give up a three to L.I. You the other way I feel pretty good about this one. I was surprised to see it you know priced out of the plus money Love that I will bet I will bet some race to 10s On some long shots. I like doing that every year. I know a mark friend of the show and Falkos Jim rooft does that looking down the board who would either like first to 10 Santa Clara can't talk yet no idea Just because start time can talk usually start slow start on for Santa Clara no clue Accords an interesting one because of the variance Texas tech might also be a little bit rusty long Island. No thanks right state To Hofstra definitely This is for Friday's late How about Cal Baptist would it stun you to all if our dude dom goes off hits a couple three's early Kansas is traveling across the country Cal Baptist is driving 45 minutes up. That's not a bad one. Firman's not a bad one Uh, and either as queens actually like queens might give up a hundred, but like Purdue a little like just Rusty early queens hit some threes. It's not the worst one like I could see I could see that being like 10/8 at the under 16 and then Purdue goes on like an 18 or something um All right, what we'll talk about those games in a bit, but let's move on to The ask him move on to the midwest region three virginia versus 14 right state. This will tip off At 150 eastern on TBS This game will take place in the city of brotherly love my hometown. I'm gonna be there. That's gonna be it's gonna be good times You're gonna be there all right. I will be there 18 and uh virginia favorite by 18 and have taken some early money from open total 44 and a halfs come down a bit I I think right states in trouble here um big time There is There's just I don't know how they're gonna like their defense their half court defense is not great now they are have that they do great Out well against the pressure gonna see some press from virginia, which is a positive But this is a right state offense that's very rimmaryly and good luck against virginia um like they grade out the 94th percentile At the rim 20th percentile frequency. I mean we just saw We just saw boozor can boozor go three of 17 against virginia. I am Right states gonna have to make some threes here um which Like They are capable of doing they don't really shoot threes often they want to get to the rim But they i mean they they when they do they make them at 36 percent, but it's in the horizon You're getting a lot of open looks you playing some zones So i mean tj birch has been a really good story the ball state transfer um but This is to me. This is virginia or nothing. I think this is virginia by 25 plus as long as they're focused and hit a reasonable number of shots Uh, let's see which one of you have a hot take here duck hot take from you here. What do you got? Yeah, I mean tackle the sentiments right state team total under 62 and a half 63 and a half when you look at how right state profiles offensively They try to get to the rim they try to get to the stripe They need to procure paint touches to get shots from in close absolutely not going to happen against uva here Look what those guys did in the middle Against Duke and the ACC championship game 14 rejections Between ugana and yohan grunlo It's you're not going to be able to penetrate the lane right states it's not going to get to the stripe They shoot fewer threes than anybody in the horizon league and they have one player that averages two or more made three point shots per game on the season. It's just not a schematic matchup that favors Wright State having some good looks. I really could see Virginia turning this into a defensive slog. And if the Wahoo's are up by 2022, 25 and the second half, there's going to be no pace. It's one and done for Wright State who will get eaten alive on the boards. Yeah, that's one of the strengths usually when they're playing teams on their levels, the boards, but that's just going to be wiped out by Virginia, which hurts. Yeah, it would be a fun team against another opponent, but this is schematically a poor matchup for Wright State. And one where I just do not see this team getting into the mid 60s. I would say I would go as far as to say they may not break 55. So strong, strong value, in my opinion, on the Wright State team total under. Calabria, is there anything that here since you'll be here? Yeah, I'm going to lay the 18 and a half. You guys hit a lot of it. I mean, from a Cinderella perspective, I want you to bring someone to the table that's special. You know, maybe you're great from three to take a lot of them. Maybe there's a tempo difference. This Wright State team is like moderately slow. Do you play unique defense? Not really. Do you have a star player you can rely on? Michael Cooper is good, but he also had seven single digit performances in his past 17 games. So if he disappears, they're going to get absolutely boatraised in this one. And then the final piece of it is when UVA had an opportunity to step on teams, throw it this year, they did. The beat rider by 34, Hampton by 28, Marshall by 26, American by 44. This isn't like the Tony Bennett slow down and not score. They're going to go over 80. They ported in for 81 plus in five games in, you know, the last month or so of the season. And a lot of those big offensive performances came against tournament teams like NC State and Miami, Florida. So I think this team is just way too good on both ends of the floor. And I, you know, given the history of UVA early in the tournament and Odom of all people would know about it. I don't think they're going to sleepwalk into this one and let Wright State hang around. I think they're going to hit some haymakers early and then just build out a lead into the 20s and the second half. By moving on about an hour after Wright State for Gen. You off Tennessee State and Iowa State kick off in a two 15 matchup. This will take place in St. Louis better believe there's going to be some Iowa State support there. Iowa State is a 24 and a half point favor total 148 and a half. Tennessee State is a led by Nolan Smith, very athletic team. Like they have a ton of athleticism when you watch them remember while his team. But this is not a great matchup for them. It's, I mean, this, this is a team like very aggressive defense. They'll press extend pressure. They'll trap. But the offense is, I mean, it's pretty ugly. It's like, they want to get to the rim dribble drive. It's a lot of ISO mid range. And in order to beat the Iowa State defense, you need to swing the ball and have shooters hit threes on the weak side and you need to stress their D. I mean, this Tennessee State offense is 345th in the country and 3.8 and when they do shoot them, they don't shoot them well. And they're 331st in a sister rate. Those, that's not a good combination against the Iowa State defense. So there's a lot of, yeah, I mean, there are times Iowa State can turn it over. I mean, Tennessee State, that's, that's their M.O. It's like pressure defense. That's how they want a lot of games in the OVC. I always think can be turnover of bits. Maybe that can get Tennessee State going and transition some. But I also think that Iowa State is going to turn over Tennessee State and they just don't, they're going to foul a ton. I mean, one of the paths to a cover is Iowa State's been so bad at the line here. And if you look historically teams that shoot 70, 70 plus percent, if you just blindly bet them over 20 years, you're at like 63 percent against the spread. Actually, let me, I'll tell you the exact number. Past 20 years, teams shooting over 77 percent from the line, 101, 61 and 2 against the spread. Blindly betting teams that are elite from the line. For what it's, that you're 62.3 percent. For what it's worth, teams that are over 77 percent this year, Iowa, Houston, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Vandy, St. Mary's. Iowa State's not that. They're 340th in free throw percentage. And Tennessee State is going to foul a ton. So that is how you lay 24 and a half and don't cover Iowa State. Mrs. 10 free throws. And then they're just turning, those fouls turning to empty trips. So I don't think I can lay 24 and a half. But I have no interest in Tennessee State easy pass for me. I don't believe you guys have anything here. Anything you want to add, duck? You know, I will say if you're really trying to squeeze a little value out of this game, I think the fouls are coming and you should have plenty of opportunities for Iowa State from the stripe. They don't make a lot of them at their poor foul shooting team. Tennessee State is going to provide a little pace here and try to run with Iowa State. I could see it first half over. I don't want to bet a second half over because Iowa State in the last six minutes of games really throttles down. And if they're up by 25 or 30 points, they're not even attempting to get serious good looks at pursuing more scoring opportunities, which could also lead to a back door. But I could see it first half over. I could see Iowa State putting up 45, 48 points in the first half and being up by 15 to 18 and a half. So maybe a look there, but nothing's wrong. Mike, you don't have anything here? I pardon me, wanted to like mess around with Mom Chilovich's threes maybe go under because it's a blowout. And I thought to myself, well, he's so good at home. You know, it's probably a bit of a drop off when he shoots on the road. He still makes 44% on the road. So I can't touch a player prop in that regard. So this is just a full pass for me. All right, let's move on to Hofstra, Alabama. One that's been in the news a lot. Alabama's down to 11 and a half point favorite. I think it opened it like 10 and a half, got up to 14, got bet down with the eight and hollow away marijuana news had a couple pounds on him. I do not think he will be playing here. Alabama currently 11 and a half point favorite total 159 and a half. Mike, you have a strong take here. You like the dog? Yeah, you got to go with the dog here. I think this is potentially just too much to overcome for the crimson side because hollow away being their second leading score, but also their best three point shooter, nearly 44% from deep. That changes how you can play and how you can help on, you know, Phylon and when he drives the hoop. And the question is, is Hofstra position to pounce on a potentially wounded Alabama team? I think absolutely because they're on an 11 to 1 run. They're well balanced offensively. They're rapidly improving defensively. You know, there was an early episode I was on with stuck and we talked about this. This was a defense that just wasn't all that special for the first half of the year. And when you look at it since February 1st, they've been a top five effective field goal. They're making it very difficult to score at the rim. I think they have the makings of a real Cinderella to not only win this game, but make it deep run because essentially when you look at it, you know, in terms of their defensive efficiency, since February 1st, they've risen all the way to 32nd. And when they defend the three point line, well, you just don't have any options in terms of how to score on them. They're out between 32nd nationally and defending the three point shot. So if they are able to hold BAM, let's say below 85 points, do they have the guards to be able to get the points, you know, to hang with them? I think they do. They got the CAA player, the year and cruise Davis. They guys back court made press and edmied, you know, as a duo, they scored 41 points per game through the CAA tournament. So they're hot coming at the right time, cruises that multi level score. And edmied really got more confident with his shot as the season progressed. He was a freshman. So it took some time for him to really take over. He made some big shots in the last month of the season. And what we know about this Alabama Crimson Thai team, they're lacklustre defensive outfit. They're more interested in running and gunning than, you know, grinding out half court stops. So I don't know. I think this is all trending against NATO. It's, you know, a team that I just, I think they're trending in the wrong direction. And when you look at it, if you can hold them below 85, certainly below 80, because if you go below 80 on Bama, they're one and four straight up this season. So it just becomes a situation where they don't know who they are or how to win necessarily a variety of games where speed clacks since team, I think, can win in a couple different ways. It won't just require them to knock down 15 three pointers here. So I'm going to say who I thought was the class of the CAA the whole year. They had that low in January where they lost five games. If anything, it just brought them together and galvanized this team. And like I said, they're playing really the best defense of any mid major coming into the tournament. You know, rim defense has been top three over the past month or so in the nation. They're going to play drop coverage, which isn't great against the Bama pick and roll, which is their ball 197th percentile for equals 99th percentile efficiency. But you got to file on 90 second percentile, inefficiency, hollow a 95th. Dealing with both of them off of the dribble was going to be a problem. Now there's a big drop off now to Alan and Ritesle, not having to worry about hollow way and the shooting as well, especially like in transition. And it's just and then the distraction of it all, right? Like what all of this that Bama has the deal with. on top of all the other hoopla during the first week of the tournament. That's potentially problematic. Yeah, Hofstra, this is like a jump shooting contest because Hofstra is not going to score at the rim Which is where Bama's week, but Bama is a shot volume clown like that. They are screaming red flag of We're gonna get upset because They don't defend they have major issues defending and they're a shot flying clown because they don't They fall they will fall too much at times, but they don't get on their defensive glass and they don't turn you over ever So like I Hofstra could win the the shot volume bot that'll hear and then this is just becomes a jump shooting contest between the back courts and Alabama lost one of their best the week of the game. I like the pride Duck anything bad You know guys, I'll be honest with you. I don't know that I've won a Hofstra bet all seasons So I will happily set this one out Utah State Nova I Mean Nova's these team teams are trending like this like Nova faded at the end of the year. Big East was super weak. They lost Hodge who I think they miss but I mean you trust state that you can't zone Nova's fight out. We stayed they kind of abandoned the zone at the arena They torched it you know the will you you trust they will throw out some zone at times go one through one I Have no idea on this game like I can't figure I couldn't figure out the mountain last all year and Utah State is in a negligent of me. I can never figure them out. They also can't it free throws Whenever I bet them but to wit You go to Haslam metrics You pull up Utah State they're dead last in the country in consistency, which makes perfect sense to me I cannot figure them out. I have nothing on this game Dr. Got anything here I mean there's a little bit of you to stay to advance. I know that and the mountain what balls are the mountain west has been a Trooper is a Jorpley in the attorney like there's I could I could make cases for both sides so easily Yeah, Utah State has a a small travel edge then I have to go as far probably got in already and you know Nova's going across the country But there's so jacol and hide Utah State and so inconsistent and this is in San Diego by the way Against every mountain west opponent Their games were highly volatile you could see the win a game by 21 night lose by 20 the next night getting blown up by you and LV It was just bizarre and so for that reason I'm gonna pass on this one. I just really I don't know if I'm getting a plus or C plus From Utah State here. Yeah, that's probably well. I'll have Utah State advancing west coast We're trending up nobody trending down and this is played in the a us Utah State's very familiar with this arena anything you want to add Yeah, I mean the familiarity of the venue. I think they have the better guards in this one in Collins and I know fans at travel Yeah, so I agree it's it's scary from a one game perspective because they've been so jacol and hide but I'm If you like Utah State, I think this is a potential for a ladder because if Nova doesn't get off the bus They could lose this one by double digits. I wouldn't be shocked at all Tennessee will take on the winner Miami and SMU duck you potentially interested in SMU If that would be Miami Yeah, be fun to sweat that one out tomorrow night you and I have a ham sandwich bit on that I think SMU I don't care whatever we decide seven and a half seven I took eight and a half so we could both win You could land eight You then we'll both push No, I'm saying yeah, we'll push but we'll both be happy as well. Yeah, we both yeah, that that could work. Let's head land on eight That's right. Well, I must say must Calvary's you have another number No, I'm gonna let you guys have out of here. All right, get duck Boopy Miller quick off the dribble and should be able to get to the lane Against Tennessee a little bit here. Jaron Pierre has made five or more threes and four of his last five games the guys in the middle cement and jaden tombs I think really can compete well with Tennessee if they were to advance and SMU has top end talent. I mean they took they took duke to the wire in Cameron indoor It was a three-point game with two minutes to go. They were tied with Virginia on the road with 90 seconds to go They've got wins over Louisville, UNC A&M. I Think that if we've seen teams use the first four as a springboard in the past and I think if SMU can build a little confidence I like the way their defense has been playing They really competed well in the ACC tournament defensively. Yeah, I think SMU would have a chance to beat Tennessee The problem is they've been well healthy as BJ Edwards their defense is not we don't know same without them So we'll find out some more there. They've been replaying a lot of zone Down the stretch to fix some of their defensive issues The problem is if you zone Tennessee Tennessee will have 447 offensive rebounds That's the country I'm interested to see what they do schematically But for me on Didn't ask him I'll throw to myself for a word when our sponsor Robinhood would have sports or Traded like markets now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robinhood prediction markets It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market You can buy or sell your positions live all game long use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter Robinhood prediction markets changes the game It's people moving the action so when momentum shifts you can move with it I always knew the game, but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge now I can actually take part live in a market powered by people you're no longer just a spectator play by play you decide Trade every play with Robinhood now available across the US Download the Robinhood app now to begin futures and cleared swaps trading Involved significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone event contracts are offered by Robinhood derivatives LLC a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm Why hasn't a woman formally participated in a formula one race weekend in over a decade think about how many skills they have to develop at such a young age What can we learn from all of the new f1 romance novels suddenly popping up every year? He still smelled of podium champagne and expensive friction And how did a 2023 event called Wagga Get in change the paddock forever that day is Just seared into my memory I'm culture writer and f1 expert Lily Herman and these are just a few of the questions I'm tackling on no grip a formula one culture podcast that dives into the unburxed Lord pockets of the sport In each episode a different guest and I will go deeper into the wacky mishaps scandals and sagas both on the track and far away from it That have made f1 a delightful decadent dumpster fire for more than 75 years Listen to no grip on the iHeart Radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts I'm Clayton Nackered and in 2022. I was the lead of ABC's the bachelor Unfortunately, it didn't go according to plan. He became the first bachelor to ever have his final rose rejected the internet turned on him If I could press a button and rewind it all I would but what happened to Clayton after the show made even bigger headlines It began as a one night stand and ended in a courtroom with Clayton at the center of a very strange paternity scandal The media is here. This case has gone viral the dating contract agreed to date me, but I'm also suing you This is unlike anything I've ever seen before I'm Stephanie Young. This is Love Trapped This season an epic battle of he said she said and the search for accountability in a sea of lies Listen to Love Trapped on the iHeart Radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts I'm Nancy Glass host of the burden of guilt season two podcast. This is a story about a horrendous lie that destroyed two families Late one night Bobby Gumpright became the victim of a random crime He pulls the gun Tells me to lie down on the ground He identified Termaine Hudson as the perpetrator Termaine was sentenced to 99 years I'm like, Lord, this can't be real. I thought it was a mistaken identity The best lie is partial truth For 22 years only two people knew the truth Until a confession changed everything I was a monster Listen to burden of guilt season two on the iHeart Radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts Good people. What's up? What's up? It's Questlove So recently I have the incredible opportunity to have a real conversation with actors and producer Jamie Lee Curtis ahead of the release of our new thriller series Scar Petta I can honestly say I've never done an interview like that before you know, at one point I shut my laptop down and we just started chatting as old friends, recent Oscar recipient, so we have some commonality there. I predict that by the way. - And you said these words to me. Dust off your mantle. - Yes. - And I looked at you and I said, what? And you said dust off your mantle. And then I left and that was it. And then when all of that happened, I remember the next morning, I think I wanted to like write you and go, how did you know? - Listen to the Questlove show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Come check this. - iHeart and TikTok have come together to create something new. - I love it. - Where the world of TikTok meets your playlist. - Three words that will change your life. - iHeart TikTok Radio. - What's trending for you on TikTok? - Tonya Sound that's better than this. - Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for iHeart TikTok Radio. Make it a preset and stay connected all day. - All right, time to move on. I do hope that that Tennessee, whoever game is good. Because then if not, there's always that low. Where you either like, or like, oh my god, why did I just, why did I bet that team earlier after you had a bad afternoon or you're like excited for the night's late. But there could be a law when there's just that game going on before we get to prime time. - If it is Miami of Ohio, by the way, immense, I can't take a prop at any harder than that. Like give me the points, give me the rebounds, give me the combo. It's stuck in my head that performance by the Miami defense against Ohio, that overtime game that they almost lost. Simmons had what, 39 in that game? What is it meant to do to them? That would be, I'd be looking my chops for that one in the player prop market. - It would be a dunk layup line for Tennessee. Iowa Clemson kick off the prime time slate, 650 Eastern on TNT. So the eight nine matchup, which will take place in Tampa, Florida. Iowa two, two and a half point favorite, depending on where you look total down to 128. I have this as a grinder game. Neither team allows anything in transition. This will be played in the half court. I like Iowa. I will, my handicap, there are some looming three point regression for Iowa. They've been extremely unlucky of late, so that could help. But it's not my main reason for this handicap. The first reason is Clemson's pick and roll defense against posing ball-inters. 20th percentile, 80 second percentile frequency. That's bad news against Bennett's starts. The second reason is in a half court grinder, where like one of Clemson's advantages usually is they suck the life out of games and they don't let you get in transition. And they just, that's Iowa's perfectly fine with that. That's how Iowa wants to play. So in a half court grinder, I trust McCallumore and I trust starts the best player in the court to make a few more plays. Clemson also has, they lost one of their bigs to an injury last week in Welling. I think that hurts here. And Clemson won't overwhelm Iowa with its athleticism, which is something where Iowa is lacking in. Now the one thing that gives me a little bit of pause is if Clemson ups their press rates. Like Clemson plays slow, but they press you just kind of slow the game down at times. They will extend pressure. And I mean, on the year, they pressed, I mean, among the higher rates in the country, they were around 15% of the time, which is 86% high, and they were very good, 90th percentile. And when they press, they don't press to speed you up, they press to slow you down. That's why they're 90th percentile in last four seconds of the Shot Clock forced. But they have a 99% tile, half court, you know, press to half court rate. But will that lead to some more turnovers against Iowa? Because Iowa's been bad against the press. Like they're vulnerable there. They don't see the ton of the big 10, but they struggle to make Penn State with Maryland. And then in 20 plus press sessions against Michigan, they scored 0.55 points per possession. The worst team in the country against the press is Sacramento State. They scored 0.69 points per possession. That's the one thing that gives me pause. But this will be close. It'll be lower scoring. I'm just going to trust my comment on it. Trust starts to make enough shots. Give me Iowa duck. Yeah, I like the under. I think we'll see both of these offenses operate comfortably as we get deeper into the possession clock. Iowa is so buttoned up. Oftentimes teams when the clock gets under five, they panic, they nobody moves within the offense. It's four guys out standing around waiting for someone to take a shot. But Iowa just continues to run their stuff and Bennett starts is so comfortable with the ball in his hands when the clock gets under three. And he can get to 12 or 14 feet and he makes those shots off. And so I do think execution wise, Iowa will have a better chance to do that. Both these teams are going to play slow and we're going to have these grind it out elongated possessions. I think that favors Iowa. I really like the under. Now if a team gets up by eight and the other group has to play out a desperation that could blow up the under. You know, Clemson can press and they can transpede Iowa up a bit and then the final game starts or whatever else in the last four minutes. But I think it's an under trend. I wouldn't be surprised if both these teams are in the very, very low 60s. And Iowa should win this game. Also mentioned the free throw against Straddus that Iowa qualifies elite free throw shooting team Clemson at a little significantly worse. I think they're around 72%. Iowa is at that 77% threshold. And in the game low score and grinder could make all the difference. Covers are any dad. Sub 130 total inside of one possession as a favorite. And in the market, you can get it 15 to one to go to overtime. I think this is one to take a shot at. There's not many games in the round of 64 that I think potentially could be destined for O.T. This is one of them. Continuing on in the night slate, Northern Iowa the 12 seed will take on the five seed. St. John's 710 Eastern tip on CBS in San Diego, California. So we got some travel here for both teams. UNI extended break. What are they gonna look like? They were red hot. That's definitely a concern. But they should be well rested. They're well coached catching 10 and a half points here. Total 131 and a half. I love you and I. I look, the athletic. St. John's not pressing at the end of the year. They've really reduced their press rates. They could up it here and just say, like lean into their athletic advantage. That could be the difference here. They could just be too powerful, too athletic. But I just say, I, this is too good of a matchup for UNI and a nightmare matchup per St. John's. And again, the athleticism and talent advantage could supersede that. And, but here's what UNI does. They pack it in on defense, which means they force you to beat them from the outside. They're really good on the defensive glass. On the offensive end of the floor, they're very well connected. They have a senior laden, one of the, I think there were third and minutes continuity coming into the year. They had some injuries in the year. So like they were, I think they're just underrated in general, which is why they made that charge at late in the season. They missed Tristan Smith for a while and they were just a different team without him. So, but on the offensive end, they're never going to try to get an offensive rebound because they're going to get back and prevent transition. At all cost. I think the only team in the country to allow a lower transition rate was Minnesota. So what do they do? They make it difficult to score at the rim. They're good on the defensive glass. They make you shoot from the outside, they pack everything in. I mean, we're talking elite rim defense. Don't allow transition. Like these are the paths that St. John's usually scores in. And then they execute on the offensive end. They're not going to be afraid of this team. I think this is a really bad match up for St. John's. Now, St. John's, maybe they make their outside shots. They're not a good shooting team, but they're overdue. There's some interesting three point regression potential here on both sides. Like St. John's has been ice cold from three of late, which scares me a bit. I mean, if you look since February 1st, St. John's has the largest decline in the tournament. They've shot 28.7%. Before then, they were 35.8. And they're going to get looked. So like that scares me a bit. But their defense has been extremely lucky. Their defense, since February 1st, teams have shot 27%. Before then, they were at 34%. So which one gives? That's very interesting. Northern Iowa has been shooting the lights out of the wall. So maybe there's some potential negative regression there. But there's the kind of evens out on St. John's side. But we'll see if they can make shots. If they do, it's probably problematic for Northern Iowa. That's not the strength of St. John's. That's what you want to force them to do here. So I think this is a really, really good matchup for Northern Iowa. And then catching like double digits in a game of the total that's, you know, 131.5. You are. now, baby, Mike, you love this as well. Yeah, I'm going same game, Parley. Give me the points and under 132 in this one. You made all the points that are salient in this one glacial pace from the Panthers, 363rd in the country. They got that pack line defense that allows them to rebound on the defensive glass at an elite level. They rarely foul 15.5 fouls per game. That's 37th in the country. And Tristan Smith also being back in the starting lineup. It's not just a boost to their defense. They're fourth in effective field goal percentage offense since February 8th. So that's given them enough to be able to score to hang around. It's not just enough to stop what St. John's wants to do in the half court. Because really the red storm, it's all about the extra story scoring chances. They're plus 5.5 per game. That's top 10 in the country and 34th in fast break points. Northern Iowa is perfectly equipped to limit them in both departments. You also got Ben Jacobson, the five times Erie Valley coach of the year with four NCAA tournament wins. This is night game coaching in the tournament. So he's not going to be thrown off by this venue and the venue too. It's just it's not a good travel spot to go from MSG game of the year. Energy to maybe a sleepy start. Maybe Northern Iowa can be up, you know, 2015, you know, at the eight minute time out in the first half, which is going to feel like 10 in this game. Exactly. It's just going to be one of those games that St. John's needs to create their own energy and juice. And you and I is going to do everything they can to throw cold water on it. So 11 and a half, I think was too much, you know, grabbing it at the top of the market. I still like it at nine and a half 10 and one 32. I just don't necessarily see even if you and I falls down by eight to 10 points, they're not all of a sudden going to abandon their game plan and start pushing it and start firing threes left and right. So I think this is another correlated option from the same game, partly perspective plus 260, I think is plenty of value. Yeah. And there are a part of me also thinks that like St. John's might be a little bit overrated here. Like peak, like peak of the market, after what they did in the garden, in the biggest tournament, but I think Yukon, like I think Dylan, Nova's a dearly a tournament team. I did deserve to get in, but like they are not great. I know the season hall isn't an exact comp by any stretch, but it was 6560. That feels like this kind of game for the Johnny's. Like they're going to be happy to get out of it. I think they have a better chance to play their version of St. John's basketball and win going away against Kansas than they do against you and I. Yeah. But the big east, this might be extremely, really, really bad this year, which is like cropping up St. John's a bit because St. John's, I mean, can we look at, like yeah, they look great in the big east. They're on fire out of conference. They lost to Albert on a neutral. They lost at home to Alabama. They lost to Kentucky on a neutral. Their best, they lost to Iowa state on a neutral. Not granted. They were right in that game, but their best non-conference win was on a neutral against Baylor. So like they didn't like the world on fire and the non-con and then they took advantage of a historically bad big east, do you want to add? You know, I was initially worried about you and I being outaffly did by St. John's in the press and then I looked further into it. And while the Missouri Valley is not a league that you see a lot of press in, you and I has seen their fair share of it. They saw it against Murray State. Bradley does that. Yeah. They've seen it, right? They've even Valparaiso pressed them a hair higher than you might have ever suspected that in their games against Valparaiso. So Scott Neggie did a little bit of that with Southern Illinois. So you and I has seen it. And they broke the press fairly well against those teams. And to support the under position, when you and I breaks the press, even if they have a man advantage in the front court, they're holding the ball back and they're waiting for their guys to get up into the front court and then they're setting up half court. So how do you have a point when they've been pressed? 87% of the time they became a half court possession. 13% of the time they tried to score in transition. Yeah. And in the NCAA tournament, when you're playing on that court with the NCAA logo and it's an unfamiliar venue, they're pulling it out and waiting for their guys to get down. It's going to be low and slow here. So I can definitely see the position on either the under or on Northern Iowa. All right. Yeah, I like you know anything down to nine. You'll know right away if they can't handle the athleticism. But and then if St. John's is making threes, like just tip your cap, you just got to do that when you back college basketball. Like a sand and comes in and it's five threes like, all right, move on. Let's head to UCF UCLA. As a tough one to talk about because we just don't know how healthy. I think dense going to be okay. Mixed a dense okay, but Billido, he said he needs a couple days. I don't know what that means. He's obviously super important for a surging UCLA team. I think UCF can do some damage on the glass. They've been running very poor from three like that. And you're going to get three looks from UCLA. I could see them finally finding their shot. I mean, what were they like three of 23 again, since he and like three of 20 again, and they couldn't make a three all weekend in the big 12 tournament. So at the current number, I would lean UCF UCF, maybe in a money line shot, you could, I'm still conflicted on this game just because of the injury uncertainty. Bill knows that important, I think overall. But if UCLA is healthy, man, make it do some damage in this bracket. I just don't know enough. So this is a, as of right now, a pass for me. You guys don't really have anything here. Do you want to like now I'm going to put myself in a mickron and timeout. And so I can finally get a game right even in the big 10 tournament I got hooked with Purdue, lay in the seven and a half. So I've been able to figure out UCLA. You know, if you look at the travel and they've got to go to Philly and UCLA heading east of the mountain times on, it's been poor this year. It's looked really, really jerky for UCLA. And Central Florida has athletes that can absolutely compete in this game. I don't really have a real robust take, but I'm not laying in this spot for sure. All right, before we move on, I do have to ask you guys a question. What is March known for? College hoops, obviously spring training baseball. Yeah, that too. But it's also known as the time that we have one of the absolute best deals on action pro of the entire year. So head over to action to work dot com slash pro to get six months of pro for 49, 99 get it now for access to all of our picks. As soon as we log them in the app, no more waiting 30 minutes and getting potentially stale lines. We also have NCAA player props powered by our analytics team that smash it every tournament. Shout out, make a different and show on corner. Again, that's action at work dot com slash pro to get yourself signed up today. Player props alone. Make that deal super worth it. All right, let's move on to let's go. We're going to talk a little queens Purdue. Purdue, obviously, surging Purdue also for what it's worth. The best neutral site team in the country. Like they've had some problems at home, but they're good. They did a neutral big brand for the big 10 tournament. They beat they blew out a healthy Texas texting by 30. They beat Auburn by 30 on the neutral court. I mean, this team on neutral courts. They are number one in overall efficiency in neutral court games. This game will tip at 730 Eastern on true TV. Purdue, the two seed is a sizeable favor 25 and a half points over Queens. Total 163 and a half come down a bit. It's a bit surprising to me. Queens runs beautiful offense. That shooters all over just great cutting motion like that. They run great offense. The problem is their defense is an absolute civ. I've spent I don't know way too much time. I'm spending hours upon hours and slept in three days going through every one of these games. The amount of time I spend on see I try to find one thing that Queens does that could like. I'm like, oh, this is how they could get a stop. I don't know how they get a stop. I mean, their defense is embarrassing. I mean, just to illustrate how bad it is. Queens played five power conference teams. Only three of them went to the turn of three of the five tournament teams. They allow an average of 102 points, six points per game. Everyone cleared 94. I mean, Purdue, it's just like even a produce off from three. They're going to get every rebounds to be a layup line. I mean, I don't know how Queens gets any stops. Now, there are often could maybe cause some issues for Purdue with their bigs. You know, and they have some guys who can shoot, but they just can't get any stops. I know Matt Painter is own one straight up as a favorite in this range in the turn of it. No one saw the fairly thick and set upside coming. I will say that. Sometimes you just never know in this sport, but this is the best off. The Queens gave up by 100. I mean, it's shocking how bad their defense is. Queens gave up to the non-turned-to-non-turnement power conference teams. They played, they played Auburn. They gave him 106. They played Wakefars. They gave him 111. Now they're playing the number one most efficient offense in the country. So I mean, Purdue can name it here. I do think Queens can have some offense success. So I don't know. Right? I don't even know over here. Even this under is taking some money. Duck, you got anything here? It's like you read my notes for me. I'm all those scores. I was going to outline Queens is going to get incinerated on the offensive boards produce should have wide open shots Plenty of trips to the strike plenty of possessions to get over their team total as well as Queens is gonna play really fast I think Queens can be more efficient offensively in this game than you might think I like the over. I like produce team total over. I won't be stunted all if this is 110 to 85 You got a prop here looking at Mike I do. I mean everyone has been watching Purdue through the big 10 tournament knows that Oscar Clough either he got healthy He got in better shape. They just started using him more something great He looks really good and he averaged 17 and 10 across those games in the big 10 tournament He's gonna eat here and the combo on points and rebounds if it's anything south at 23 I'm on the over here. You talked about all those games that Queens got absolutely bombed by power conference seems How about the game against Nova because if you're looking for a comp Duke Brennan they're big 17 points. That's fine 20 rebounds I'm gonna see something it's definitely a double double for Clough And I think that Queens can score enough that he's not heading to the bench very early in the second half And then you know not to be seen again for the rest of the game if he can get some solid minutes in this game I think it'll be easy for him to cruise past you know the mid 20s in terms of this combo prop Painter also has to take this seriously. You can't risk losing to You know you can't fully your guys too soon. Not not after what happened in priors. Yeah so by the way In pain or in the tournament one of the best of all time against this breath 27 and 14 Doesn't get enough credit no hurly hurly 17 and three. It's covered 14 straight. We'll get to that game in a bit There's also I don't know I haven't seen many people talk about this did I? I haven't even dug into it, but The TKR shoulder is that an issue again? That's one thing I'm worried about for do like at the very end of the game he heard it and that's been an issue in the past that's another Potential for your you know if they don't push him as hard if it is actually an issue. That's something else for your cloth prop But I haven't seen anything to be frank. I didn't really dig in to an update but I haven't seen an update He said it's fine in the post game interview, but I don't know it's been an issue in the past Produce should not be able to name their points. I mean, we're not going to talk about this game Florida We'll take on the winner of prairie view and lehi You're gonna have an angry Florida team and angry staff It bet flared on the open. I think they'll win by like 45 here um That one's gonna get ugly Who has a better chance of upsetting Florida Clemson or Iowa? Neither Yeah, I don't like either of those matchups. I mean the bigs Iowa's bigs will get eaten alive That'll be bad and then Clemson that's where they'll miss again. I'm miss willing. They just don't have the offense Yeah, hard to see Florida getting upset there Sturts gotta go for like 48 Um, all right, let's move on to the night's late cowbat this Kansas Kansas 14 and a half point favorite Against the whack champs led by Dom Daniels the electric point guard side So happy to see him go to the dance like he could have transferred easily decided to stay loyal and he's rewarded with attorney experience This is a guy Heck one of the heaviest usage players in the country Pick one of the heaviest pick and roll offense like it's just Dom Daniel's spanning pick and roll They he doesn't have much help around him Um, they do have some size inside but if you can take him away It can get ugly for the cowbatus offense and I Know I think Kansas their defense should be focused. Yeah, there's a lot there's a trend out there that you'll hear like teams off a 20 plus point loss Their coveted tournament playing the in the first game of the NCAA tournament Historically, I've been about 65% against the spread going back to 1990 Kansas fits that bill and that's one that makes sense to me Like you self was benching guys in the second half of that game Uh, like sending messages you should get Kansas's best effort here. I did bet Kansas I'm kind of souring on it though. I don't know. I might buy out some just Like from a sh- I do think that they'll be able to limit Daniel's not Daniel's capable going off like the 47 in the game this year But there's just so much Kansas length but Kansas is kind of like a shot volume loser They're not the same team away from home like bottom 10 away from home And this is a 945 late start there's It's it can't cowbatus gonna shorten the game down so Yeah, I do think they have to length to throw at Daniel's and then just where where does cowbatus go for offense but I don't know. I'm kind of souring on I have a bet on Kansas minus 13 and a half. I don't I don't feel as great about it as I once did but I do think it's tough match up for the cowbatus offense Uh Doc you got to take care Yeah, I like the under I like cowbatus team total under I I love cowbatus. They're a great team. It's been a fun story. I'm glad they won the whack It's gonna be a real cool thing to see them in the NCAA tournament the travel is easy for them Just an hour up the road Kansas has to fly across the country so I can see we talked about the Race to 10 props if you can get a real juicy number on Baptist I could see them maybe having a hot start. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dom hits a couple of threes early but The Kansas length is really gonna be tricky in this one for cowbatus You're not going to get a lot of productivity in the post and for the Lancers to stick around in this one It's gonna take 35 or 38 points from from Dom and I just don't know These are bright lights. This is something none of these players have ever done before and you get onto this stage where Kansas goes every year and they've got all the guys that have been there before and cowbatus has and it just could be One where It looks really worse on offense than what it actually is for cowbatus I think their defense can hang in there for a while and the defense is going to limit A little bit of of the post and and kind of what Kansas wants to do with the ball entry in the lane Neither one of these teams really wants to shoot a lot of threes I know Dom makes some threes but really nobody else shoots a lot of threes here And cowbatus turns the ball over at an alarmingly high rate 288th of the country. Of course, Pinchers pull here. Kansas never forces turnovers Cowbatus turns it over all the time What gives now it's a lot like now you're playing cowbatus because if if Kansas is turning over cowbatus They're going to destroy them in transition and get so many easy buckets and then go on a They're going to go on runs and get easy buckets and then I think it's lights out And by the way since every reinforced cowbatus is making 38% of their threes Before then there were 31% 3 point shooting team. They're not a great 3 point shooting team And they're going to need to make threes here. Okay. Do you have anything else? Yeah, I mean I can't imagine that the idea for cowbatus is that they're going to try and crash the offensive glass here Or they're going to get toasted and transitioned so you're not going to have a lot of second chance up Opportunities. You're going to have one and done possessions This game should be played at 63 possessions or less I think it's an under. I think it's a 72-59 type of game when all is said and done Maybe 74-59 so can just can cover for you And I think it's an under. I think it's a cowbat. It's team total under. I think that they will Not embarrass themselves. I think it'll be a respectable showing. Maybe they're down 8 late They just can't get a bucket in the last two minutes or something and Kansas eaks out of cover But I think this is an under Yeah, I mean cowbatus is an elite rebounding team and canus doesn't turn you over So like from a shot-vying perspective that's what worries me But is cowbatus going to be able to have that rebounding strength against Kansas? Not only offensive glass. Yeah, so like I still like Kansas. I just There are some things and you know the start time That where if dom goes off for 35 you tip your cap and move on. Yep Anything you want to add Mike? I was kind of flirting with the idea of because there's some markets that are offering these kill shot runs You know 10-0 15-0 20-0 Avalan stuff, but the 10-0 for cowbatus was only four to one I think I need like plus 750 minimum to get into bed with a situation like that. So it's a pass All right, that's we want ten eastern 10 p.m. Eastern on tvs with another two 15 matchup Connecticut will take on firm and This game will take place in fillet alfia should get some Yukon fans there You comes up from an 18-0 1/2 one favor and open up the 20-1/2 total 136-1/2 Kind of needing firmman Uh now they don't turn teams over which is like one thing you want to do against Connecticut, but This is like a 3-14 to me and I think this line's too high now that can't get to take a money like I think firm is better than a 15 That's the injuries. They just weren't the same team without Bowser who's incredible in the tournament They're big actually have two bowser's brothers on the team and Cooper and Cole and So they had some injuries and they're very well coached uh They have the they're fifth they're fifth in average height So like they have the length that like to match up with some of these teams and like I This Yukon team is more like a 3 to me again. We talked about the big east. I mean how many times we got to see this Connecticut team Go down to the wire with the drags of the big east and like have underwhelming performances and they just always take money uh They just this roster is kind of flawed. I don't know, and they also play really slow. They just don't have enough creators, which is kind of what you need against Ferman. So I don't know, I think Ferman can hang in there. Properties of good coach will change up some the defenses a bunch. The only thing that worries me, and which like, there's a chance Ferman puts a scare into Yukon, like you never know what Yukon team you're getting. I'm sure her early, I mean, well, currently he's covered 14 straight, 17 to against spread. It's probably a nice night to fall in to fade him after a bad loss in the Big East tournament. I'm sure they'll be focused. But like, would it shock me if Ferman's up at the half? No. The wildcardier is Alex Wilkins, who is one of the most talented point cards in the country for freshmen, but is super volatile, like incredibly volatile. Like all of a game, he had a game against these Tennessee state rate 11 turnovers. And then he had a game recently, we had 34 points. He said, you know, these scored 33, 34 super talented kids, but he also could go, I don't know what to expect for him. He could go like one of nine on bad threes that lead to Connecticut runouts and have seven turnovers. And then it's lights out and they need him to be good here. So that's a huge wildcard. I'm the number now that Connecticut's taken money. I did stump, it was Aaron to fade early, I know in the tournament, but I'm in Ferman on the number right now. Mike, you got anything here? I'm just a little bit surprised because, you know, for a two to three year stretch and Tanner did a great job writing the stuff for action on work a couple of years ago, you gone, their offensive sets were unique, they were fresh, they were getting people open, they're constantly in motion, it was like a Swiss watch in the half court. And I understand that their primary ball handlers have left a lot to be desired this year, but it just looks like they're stuck in the mud in the half court and they don't know what they want to do. And Luke Murray was supposed to be this, you know, assistant coach genius who was gonna be destined to have any head coaching opening that he wanted because he was basically in charge of that. I just haven't seen it. So you got just a pure stay away from me, really from that Marquette game on, I hopped in live on that game when they fell behind on the road and I figured to myself, like they'll figure out a way, they're not gonna lose to Marquette. And I was just overwhelmed with how poorly they executed the half court offense. And that performance against St. John's, I know that the Johnny's made some back breaking threes in that game, but like it was really because they just couldn't generate enough offense in the half court. That's unlikely to be the case against this firm and team. It doesn't mean they're necessarily gonna cover the number, but I need to see Yukon play a really good 40 minutes against a quality team in the round of 32 before I reevaluate where they are 'cause they're on the downslope here and I agree with you. They're playing more like a three or four seed than a two. - Yeah, I think I will be betting UCLF, UCL is healthy against Yukon in the second round. Although, UCLF cannot defend off the ball. I'm going to go look at that Minnesota game, but I don't think that character is slowing down UCLF full strength. All right, Dr. Got anything there? - Well, I mean, at this point in the show, let's pour one out last time firm and made the NCAA tournament, Stan Van Gundy lost his life savings. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go look at the video 'cause it is unbelievably legendary. Find the video of the last shot where the guy, he holds the ball into the front court like it's a grenade. Get the announcer reaction video 'cause it is really pretty funny to watch, Stan Van Gundy's reaction, just stunned when Firm and it's a jackpot. - I'm sorry, but legendary come back from Firm and since that point, the Southern Conference has been decimated and dissected by NIL in the portal. This once premier firmly cemented mid major league is now below the A-SUN and way, way down. Firm and has been better since they got some of their guys back from injury, but I worry about how good this team is and I worry about how efficient they'll be offensively. Both these teams are gonna play very, very slow. I don't know if I wanna lay it with Yukon. I'm not trying to suggest that, although I don't want to step in front of 14 OATS run, 14 in a row against the number for Yukon in the tournament. I've said this far too much today. I probably lean under. I feel that maybe if Firm and hangs in there, it's because they're defense, which is a little bit funky to start and can do a bit of unique things to maybe turn Yukon over or create some looks for Yukon that they really haven't seen. I fear that Firm and Mrs. Schatz, they maybe go on a long stretch of seven or eight minutes or they can't buy a bucket and that would be good for an under and bad if you're wanting to back the Paladins here. - All right, final game, Missouri, Miami, tips off 1010 Eastern on true TV. In St. Louis, Missouri, 1010 tip in St. Louis. Why didn't it have weird, yeah, like a watch. - Should've seen. - Yeah. - They messed up the tip times there in San Diego and Missouri for sure. - But 710, the 10 seed gets the play in Missouri, huh? Against Miami. Interesting. Missouri will definitely have a home court advantage in St. Louis with a heavy fan presence. Miami is a one and a half point favor. Missouri is taking a little bit of money, total down to 147 and a half. If you can figure out Missouri, better man than me. I can't figure them out. There are the similarities between these teams are stunning. Like, this is like a true coin flip game to me when you include that my Missouri is playing in Missouri. Like, you look at this match up. Both teams will throw out some zone. Gates will mix up a lot of defenses, but teams have zoned Miami all year and they've been bad against zone. That could end up being the difference. But, you know, both teams are really good on the offensive glass. Both teams can get to the line. Both teams are like bruising inside player that can take over a game, bruising front courts here that are going to battle. Both teams struggle from the free throw line. They're like almost have the same exact free throw percentage. The differences might be that, you know, Missouri's worse on the defensive glass than Miami and Missouri will turn it over a bit more. But, I don't know. I can't think Missouri is there tough to figure out. Probably, I might throw them in a round, rob them for some action. I do not have a strong take on that. I think this is a, this is a dead, I think you're going to see a ton of zone from Missouri, which could be effective. But then they're going to get crushed on the offensive glass. So, yeah, I, a lot of, I, I can make a case for either side. There's a lot of similarities between these teams. So, this is a pretty good 7-10 matchup. It's unfortunate. I'm not saying that, but it is what it is. Mike, you got to take care. Yeah, I think their tempo numbers explain why this total is under 150, but I just view it as Miami's been in ATM on overs all year, cash and over 61%. And when Mizzou games do go over, they go way over the number. In their last eight overs that they've cashed, it's crossed over the closing total by 11 and a half points per game. So, I think if I'm going to be right on this one, I'm going to be really right. And it's not a bad way to ends the round to 64 to be able to cash and over with like five minutes to go in regulation. I think if the shots are falling and I mean, there's a lot of elements on both of these teams that are high variance from personal perspective, but particularly with Mizzou, when you look at kind of the burst and the potential take over ability of a guy like Barrett, you know, he has some, some 20 point games out of nowhere. They certainly need a little bit of that to pull out of this late season offensive funk. You add in the fact that they're playing in front of a super partisan crowd that's going to be kind of juicing them up, at least in the early going of this game. I think we can see some scoring the ball go through the hoop. And maybe these teams play a tick faster than they have when they've struggled a bit offensively. So 147 and a half doesn't scare me a whale go over. Doc, you got anything there? I looked extensively and I don't feel like there's much of an edge in my opinion. I want a back Missouri, but they've been so inconsistent down the stretch. I think both these teams are real close in getting into that top Ashilan part of their conference, but there's a lot of weaknesses and who can exploit those weaknesses, what teams show up. So I'm going to pass here. All right. Good stuff going through all the games. We do have one final. What are this? Your final four right now and your national champion. Do you have an update of an updated final four and jam? I do have an update. I'm keeping the same final four, but I'm putting my faith, which was it was, let's say Duke against Houston and Arizona against Michigan. So three ones and a two. I'm going to go with Houston over Arizona in a rematch. I'm a little bit concerned with Michigan's, you know, ball handling Kado is not someone who really wows me and he is in a shooting, you know, funk. I don't think it's going to hurt him in the first weekend, but when they get to that second weekend and the competition starts necessitating that he knocks down some perimeter shots. And plus they don't much depth behind him. So I'm going to go with an Arizona team that it's just a cherry on top if they can make threes. They don't take them all that often. And in a tournament where we've seen all kinds of weird things, tight rims and overinflated basketballs, sometimes you want to move away from those three point dependent teams, particularly for those early land mine kind of games. So I think Arizona is probably the safest bet in the entire tournament to make it to the second weekend. And then from there, I think they're going to be able to get it done. But I'll go Houston over Arizona and then Addy. My, uh, champ, my, my main bride. which I'll enter into a lot of like high stakes schools. My name, like, I have other contests where like you have to enter three, so I'll have a couple of secondary brackets. My main bracket right now, which I think will go change. But it's, this I don't think I will change on the right side of the bracket. I have Michigan and I think that they're just walking to the lead-8. And I have Purdue and I have Purdue being Michigan again. Purdue going to the championship. On the left side, as of right now, like I don't trust Houston. I could have had the Illinois, but I've got an all big 10 final four. I could see Illinois, but as of right now, I have Vandy. And and then in the top left, as of right now, I have Kansas in the east. So my final four would be Purdue, Michigan, Vandy, Kansas, pretty winning at all. It's for a very high stakes pool though. Like high stakes pools where I'm just taking some shots. But at the end, my thinking on the east is like I would take Duke, but the injuries give me pause. And if Peterson gets hot with that defense, like now there's the shot volume, the away from home, stuff does give me pause, but you got to haul off him coach. First, you know, maybe the first overall pick in the draft and a team that certainly has shown it can play out. But then like I don't trust Louisville. I don't like this Michigan state team. I don't like this Yukon team. I actually would consider UCLA in the final four, but I just don't know that they're fully healthy. So the east is like, I need some more information. I might change my East pick. I might end up being Duke, but if I can get some more insight on their health. And then I'm taking a shot on Vandy. So my final four is as of right now, Purdue, Michigan, Vandy, and then either Kansas or Duke or maybe UCLA. I'm still trying to get some injury stuff there. Duck, how are you? I'll be honest with you. I really don't know how to answer this. I'm so undecided, but I will give our listeners this. Are you going to do your main pool right now? If you entered it, who's your children's champion? Do you have like a consistent champ that you're on? I'm wrong with Purdue in my high stakes. One's like, there's not be a lot of people pick it. Like I'm just trying to get some I think the champ will come from the one or two line. And I would probably I think Duke is very strong. I think Arizona is very strong. But I do want to give the listeners this. There is a book out there that's offering some goofy exotics. And one of them is to bet the over under for the total sum of the seeds to make the final four. And that price is minus 130 under nine and a half. So you can bet under nine and a half for the sum of the total teams seeds to make the final four. So if you get like a one two three three that pays one one two two obviously pays there's a lot of combinations. And in a perceived top heavy field, I think if you do that again, the sum of the final four seeds under nine and a half. All right. That'll do it for us. Live show Thursday morning. However updated these lines will move. So there will be some line of the night Thursday morning, especially we'll have our favorite bets some more inside. We'll have some more injury updates will be in celebrate Christmas together. And then live show Saturday at same time 10 30 a.m. Eastern player prop show live Wednesday 3 p.m. Eastern on YouTube. Make sure you check that out. Thanks to duck Mike for joining me. Thanks to our producer David on the back. And most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe and subscribe. You know the drill. Tell a friend telling an enemy leave a five star review if you have a second really helps us out, especially in March. Thanks for tuning in. Good luck on all of your wagers. Check out the action that work out for all of our picks. All the content coming out. I got a lot more coming. Thanks again for tuning in. Love you guys. Merry Christmas. Happy March. Cheers. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24/7 at 1-800 gambler. The people with something. It's Questlove. 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