NBA Preview Part 1: Most Interesting Teams Draft with Sam Vecenie

Hey, Rosilla listeners, you can find every episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Prime members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. Hey, it's Fran from Chicks in the Office. It's officially sweater season, and this fall, Abercrombie is setting a new standard. With upgraded fabrics like 100% cashmere wool blends and other natural fibers, this collection brings quality and craftsmanship to your favorite seasonal staple. The one I'll be wearing most is the Roll Neck Crew Sweater. It is so perfect for busy weekends, dressing up for a night out. You can dress it up, dress it down with my Abercrombie denim. This is your sign to curate a whole new aesthetic as the temperature drops. Shop new sweaters at Abercrombie in the app, online, and in stores. The Ryan Rosillo Show is presented by DraftKings, all of our episodes on Netflix. It is NBA preview time with Sam Bassini. He is incredible. We go through all 30 teams. Part one, 14 teams. We draft the teams based on the most interesting storylines, and that's pretty self-explanatory. We'll have part two for you a little bit later this week. Football has a way of turning one game into a full week of conversation, and DraftKings keeps you close to all of it. The DraftKings Sports app is now live. In all 50 states, that means from Texas to California to Florida, every fan is in on the excitement. Follow the teams you love, keep up with the biggest names, and experience the excitement of football all week long. No matter which game you're watching, you're always connected with one app. One app, every sport, all 50 states. New DraftKings customers sign up with code Ryan, spend just $5, and get $200 in rewards within 21 days. This includes all markets. That's code Ryan, R-Y-E-N. In partnership with DraftKings, the crown is yours. Bet with DK Sportsbook. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLE. 1-800-MY-RESET. Connecticut called 888-789-7777. Or visit ccpg.org. 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So please subscribe and check out Sam's new podcast. With us here and the rest of the crew. So here is the exercise, Sam. We are going to talk all 30 teams. We are going to do our full season preview. We're going to give you our finals picks, our MVP, rookie of the year. I don't care about a lot of the other awards. If you do, feel free to try to slide it in there. But the process of this is that we're both going to draft the team, you know, a little cliche mechanism here to kind of go through each of our teams. And this will work our way from like most excited about to likely least excited about. And real soon, we're going to go through each of our teams. It's going to be very, very simple ceiling floor. There's probably some gray area in there for a bunch of these teams. And then really, I want to nail down the topic or the storyline that you're most looking forward to as we get through all of these teams. So I know you've prepped all 30 teams. I've prepped all 30 teams. We don't know who are they going to pick, who the other guy's going to pick. But of course, the board is yours as the guest with the first pick and floor ceiling storyline. So, yeah, I the way I did this was literally just who am I excited to watch early in the season? Right. Knowing that weird. It's going to happen throughout the course of the entire regular season. Things are going to change everything. What team am I like most excited to watch? Right. And the number one team here to me is the Philadelphia 76ers. The title is absolutely the ceiling here with this team. They have the most talented starting five in the NBA with Tyrese Maxey, Vijay Edgecombe, Jalen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid. I actually kind of like some of the depth pieces like you have Anthony Simons. You can throw in. You certainly have Dean Wade. You can throw in his guys that are pretty real. But Ariel Hookporty is already torn his Achilles ACL, whatever he did. I think it was Achilles of memory. So you've lost your backup center that you just signed. You're relying on a Dembona and maybe going out and making a move in the middle of the season. If Joel Embiid misses time, there's the whole skinny Embiid narrative. That's interesting. There's how is Jalen Brown going to react to being? I don't know. Some nights he's going to be the number four option. Some nights he's going to be the number one option. There's certainly the Maxie Embiid ball screen. And then you get awesome second side action from Jalen Brown and LeBron. Like all of this is going to be so weird. I actually can't remember a team that is more interesting to talk about in the preseason than this Philadelphia 76ers team. So your ceiling is the title. Yes, for sure. For me. I didn't have title. That's for sure. Because I just I don't think that's going to happen. I understand what you're talking about. The talent part of it. But it's just so hard for me to get past the Embiid part of this. Yeah. Where I know. I look. I know you agree that like they're not my best. You know what I mean? Yeah. Right. If it goes right, it's really going to go right. I. I love what you're talking about with Jalen. Right. Because his life will never be easier. Right. But I think he'd prefer it to be harder. And I think he's going to have the hardest time out of any of these guys on those nights where he's like. Hey, I'm I kind of feel like Max, he's going to get his because of his energy. First and foremost, like Max, he's just going to get his. He's going to start with the ball in his hands and be they have to feed. LeBron is like the guy I'm least worried about because I think he's going to be totally fine. Just letting everybody eat. He's going to make things easy on everybody else. If he plays anything like he does. He did last year. And, you know, I've said this for a while. He can kind of hack the game into a nice stat line. You know, people can talk about his transition and be like at this age. It's like a lot of the transitions because he's hanging back. But like all of these things are fine. Like I'm accepting the way he goes through with his own maintenance to make sure that he's going to be there. And then I think the version of LeBron of healthy like it'll be different in the playoffs where he's probably a little bit more assertive and he's taken over. I think this is the most easily the most challenging situation that Jalen Brown will be in because I don't know that he loves sharing it with Tatum and probably. Look, even admitted how much he enjoyed last year of like, yeah, I get to make every single decision. So this one, I think that's going to be the thing they'll have to manage the most because he's going to be, I would imagine, an afterthought a little bit more often than he would hope to be on offense. One, this is all assuming, too, though, that they're fully healthy. And what I actually like about this team is that in the past, when Joel Embiid would go down, they would have. A floor that was like through the floor in terms of offensive creation. But now having LeBron who can do it for a night, he's not going to want to do it every single night, but he can do it for a night where if you need to have him go out and get twenty five, eight and eight, he can definitely do it. If LeBron sits, Jalen Brown can step up. If Tyrese Maxey sits, Jalen Brown or LeBron can step up. They have so many different number one options on top of having DJ Edge come, who just looks awesome right now, like again. So they have talked about an afterthought like we totally he's on the team and he's a stud. He was just the top three pick last year. So I think they just have so many different options to be able to withstand the moments during the season where in January of shit, Joel has to sit Tyrese Maxey. Maybe he needs a blow. All right, we can roll into a game with VJ LeBron and Jalen Brown. Oh, by the way, Anthony Simons off the bench can kind of pick up some pace here as a scorer. At least it's not like he's chopped liver or anything. So I really like the fact that on every single given night, I feel like they have an offensive creation floor, which is something that I don't think you can actually say for a crazy number of teams in the league. Yeah, I love the Dean Wade pickup file on being on the team, you know, where it was just a really nice jump for him last year. You know, I'm not saying he's perfect, but it's like, God, that's a lot of different things. You can throw at everybody here. But, you know, the MB part of this isn't even necessarily the health. There is such a drop off from who he is in the regular season to the playoffs that I think even if he's healthy and I don't want to compare him to Harden here, but there are glimpses. There are times where I see him where I think he's uncomfortable in some of those really high pressure spots, and he's going to have to get over that for this team to get through a really crowded East. So even if he's healthy and he's skinnier and he's done these things that we wanted to do. I'll be looking for those moments when it's tied with two minutes left and he either is like trying to figure out what he wants to do against a double team because I've already seen it too many times and people come back and be like, oh, you had a problem with him with a 30 and 12. I'm like, yeah, I had a problem with like these three decisions that he made with a couple minutes left in a really tight playoff game. And honestly, when you put the stat profile up of who he is in the regular season and who is in the playoffs is two completely different people on the advanced stuff. What I would say, though, is that I think a lot of the times his struggle with decision making come when he gets doubled. Right. And with this team around him, it's going to be. harder to double joel regularly i think you can play it on all screen short roll and then he can get to that mid-range jumper and it's like okay am i gonna double off of lebron am i gonna double off of jaylen brown i don't feel great about either of those options that feels like a bad plan so i think that this roster blend mitigates some of the offensive decision making issues i actually think it exacerbates some of the defensive limitations that we see in the playoffs where joel to me playoff basketball is all about flexibility and lineup flexibility and scheme flexibility right being able to do different things to answer questions that opposing teams ask you in the case of joel and bead what i think he struggles with is he literally can only play drop at this point of his career so okay most teams once you get to the eastern conference finals even eastern conference semifinals especially if they were to get to the nba finals are probably going to have an answer for how to beat drop coverage right can they find an answer for if he is in this new skinny version of joel and bead able to play a little bit more at the level is he able to you know rely on lebron to be able to be that backside helpline defender can you rely on jaylen brown to be that guy can you rely on dean wade to be that guy it's that's the part of it that i'm a little bit more worried about i guess yeah totally fair um there's not a lot of plus defenders right now and i think that's probably why they were like hey let's get dean wade because this guy was like guarding number one options out on the perimeter there for cleveland um which is always like a funny reminder because you'll see a matchup and you're like they're putting dean wade on that guy and it's like yeah they are thrilled to put weight on him and he'll be tasked with that a bunch with this group okay your pick was philly i'm going with okc so the ceiling's the whole thing as we know i think the floors of western conference finals again for them i just think it's worth reminding everybody here jaylen williams played five playoff games last year he missed four of the seven games against san antonio if jaylen williams is right oklahoma city's coming off a back-to-back nba championships because i think the inexperience is what cost san antonio against the knicks i know that seems dismissive of the knicks and honestly if you're telling me hey the knicks would have beat the thunder too with what they did fine but clearly the thunder would have been far more comfortable in that situation than san antonio which is just so odd because if you're san antonio and you're not comfortable in the finals how are you comfortable enough to come back down 3-2 against okc of all teams but this group despite the departures dort which i think was presti being smart and getting ahead of it where he was already thinking about the draft pick with wallace where he was thinking about the mccain acquisition obviously the topich part of this has been disappointing for a million different reasons but he's supposed to be back here in the mix so that's dort joe wiggins out and then you look at the depth chart and you go all right so it's still aj mitchell it's mccain it starts it's possibly topich and then you've got sorber who i love before the draft mara who's available to them too because they're thinking big bodies when benyama this team is still stacked and if jalen williams is healthy in the playoffs i'll say it again i think they're coming off of back-to-back titles so yeah the big question for me with okc is and this might be like somewhat unfair but honestly with okc it's nitpicking in terms of question marks is how does she react to the new offensive foul call rules where i was watching their game last night where he got called for an off-arm push and is he able to consistently get that separation if they're going to consistently call off-arm pushes as much as they are purporting to do so in the preseason so i think he's going to be fine i think that great players adjust i think that these guys are so gifted and skilled and shea is such an awesome player with the ball in his hands he'll figure it out and make it work but if there's any sort of he goes from being a 49 40 unlimited three-point volume 90 foul shooter to okay he's at 46 47 now because he can't use the off-arm as much and guys are able to get just that slight bit better contest on him that has real diminishing returns over the course of a playoff series to me so that's number one number two i don't know if you've watched the daimara in the preseason ryan he looks like pal gasol right now and he's doing it against you know sometimes starters sometimes guys are going to be in the g league i get it i don't want to over estimate what's going on here but he looks incredible he looks like a somewhat he doesn't look like a different player stylistically but he looks like a different player in terms of the moves he's able to get to on the block he knocked down like a turnaround face up against jock londale in one of their preseason games against atlanta and he's got a lot of players in atlanta that i was like oh wow this is a little bit different than what we saw at michigan he looks really ready to go in the preseason and i kind of thought backup center might be a question mark they can obviously go to isaiah hartenstein they can go small with chet but they like to have that third big option and to me jalen williams the bigger jalen williams is probably best utilized sometimes as a five defensively but he's a bit undersized they now have this extra rim protection option and a die mara that they might be able to go to that changes the paradigm for them yet again and it was a great draft pick when they took him i thought it made total sense to take him but mara looks like he's kind of even taken a leap over the summer that is really interesting to me it would make sense because press he likes the guys that don't get stuck with the basketball and even somebody as massive as him i think the part that got you excited is not even just what the rim protection was easy but it's like hey i think this guy could maybe make some passes especially with you know okc you could get on their offense a little bit of like hey is it a little bit like letting sga get kind of loaded up on when he's looking to bail everybody out certainly with jalen being out of those games and then chet doing or doing not doing enough offensively there it can feel like a little predictable but um yeah i'm with you i mean that's those are incredible third and fourth options because again we haven't even seen sorber and you know the chat part of this is all about the rim protection and i think that's a good way to wrap it up and i think that's a good way to wrap it up and i think that's a good way to wrap like no one's going to care what he does during the regular season they're only going to think about it that san antonio elimination game where he finished with a four and four and chet for the money and the projection like can he don't you need him to be more than a 25 to 30 minute a game guy or maybe with these options and hartenstein and some of the stuff that they'll do with a smaller player against wimby although as he gets older and stronger that'll probably be something that teams are going to remember when we used to try to get away with that against him um and look it's still mostly hartenstein going back to that series from what i remember because they just didn't want to put chet on him because wimby sees blood when chet is near him maybe it's that chet's really good and bad in san antonio matchups and they still have enough depth that it's not going to matter the optionality that you talk about there where chet just ends up playing less minutes against the spurs in that series but i i think again we kind of agree that it comes down to let's remind everybody jalen williams was not available and they still went to seven games all right you're bored i will just transition right into san antonio with that matchup so they are the you know i had them at number two on my board their ceiling is the title their floor to me is the western conference finals uh i guess the question for me is how does the guard rotation work itself out how many minutes do the fox castle harper trio play together last season in all of the regular season and all the playoffs they played 69 minutes together and while that's a very nice round number it's a really interesting thing for them to figure out fox hasn't played at all in the preseason yet i think that throughout the course of the season they should probably even if it's not optimal because the offensive rating in the very small sample size that they played together kind of tanked last year i think that they need to play those three guys pretty regularly throughout the course of the regular season together with wemby just to find out okay these are our four best players we need to find out if they can play together or if we need to look to make a bit of a different move because that is i think the key for them moving forward they have to make a very difficult decision on stefan castle coming next summer they get expensive starting next summer it happens that quick in the nba now i would assume they're just gonna give steph a contract at the end of the day because he's earned it on some level he's a terrific basketball player and he's frankly the kind of guy that i want to go to battle with because he's a killer defender he is physical he is strong he's the kind of guy that to me if he irons out the decision making is going to play up in playoff situations but with the fox contract with wemby's contract kicking in even though he took a discount with the vassell contract with all of the money they have on the books castle becomes a player that you need to kind of know with right now and you need to know what you have with this trio of guys together because i keep trying to ask myself is this finals run for women yama in this group is this the start of something really special or is this like a shack 94 finals appearance where or 95 finals appearance um where it's like hey there's the taste and then there's this gap you know because all of this every spurs conversation is followed by a conversation and there they should be connected because how special we both think these teams are are. If you want to get a little harsh with the Spurs, when you look at that backcourt depth that I just ran through there with the Thunder, it gets a little weird. Granted, Vassell, he can be a two guard, even if he's listed as a small forward. Carter Bryant's not a small forward. He's probably more of a power forward at this point. I know they probably hope that he could have the ball in his hands a little bit more, but I worry about his development of being like, I don't know when he's touching the ball in NBA games with this group out there. But then it starts to get a little weird, whether it's McLaughlin and Champagny was terrific in the playoffs, but it just can feel a little thinner. And with that run, it was crazy too, because then you're like, well, Harrison Barnes can't be played and Keldon can't be played. And it just felt like the further they went, the shorter the rotation got, which is sometimes by design. But I think with them specifically, it felt like, oh, these minutes are kind of bad from this guy. And then now these minutes are bad. And like, what's happened with the Cornette plus minus, but you probably nailed it. They they're likely. Going to have to start Harper. You know, this, it's really funny because you read previews and they'll say like, well, he's too good is the thing. He's too good. I trusted him more than anybody else in the NBA finals, which is an insane scenario for somebody that goes number two that year, that even kind of got off to like a bit of a slow start. Like people are going, man, you know, how much better would they be with canipple based on the way canipple season started versus how Harper looked at the beginning. And now you're like, now this is why I went Harper went to the Genovese. Stuff's hilarious. Cause it's like, well, okay, cool. Ginobili came over when he was 25 years old and played 20 minutes a game. I had the ball in my hands and some of the biggest moments for the team all season long, like cool history, bro, but I'm not coming off the bench for a second year. Like it's just, it's not going to happen. So I, maybe they play all three of these guys and they, they get there really quickly. I think it's possible. Like Dylan Harper is a shooter last year off the catch. Made like 38% of his threes. I think De'Aaron Fox, because the speed aspect and because of the fact that he's improved enough as a shooter, you do at least have to stay attached to him. That's why it almost makes sense to play castle on the ball most, but I think both Fox and Harper are probably better on the ball than what castle is. So it's a weird combination of skills, right? That they have to work through. The other thing I'll point out with the Spurs that I really like is that you bring up the guard depth. I think that the, the signing of Tobias Harris actually really helps the guard depth, which I know that sounds stupid, but I'll square the circle here in a second because they signed a bigger body last year. They were going to war with Champagny and Vassell who were both smaller ish guys like Vassell six, six. I think Champagny is listed at six, seven, but not like a massive six foot seven. Tobias Harris is a bigger body. Now that gives them a different look at the four that I think they were kind of hoping for with Harrison Barnes, right? Well, okay. You put Tobias Harris, Harris at the four. Now that slides everybody up a roll and you can go, okay, we can go Vassell and Champagny at the two, three with one of the guards. We can go two of the guards with one of Champagny and Vassell and Tobias Harris. I think that that actually kind of helps to give them the guard depth that, you know, I think you rightfully bring up as a bit of a question mark, at least because say, you know, one of the guards goes down, you just start Tobias Harris anyway. It's fine. Yeah. You can play Vassell with Harper and Castle. If Fox were to go down, you know, if one of the young guys goes down, then they're just plugged in. You go Vassell, maybe they go Harper, Fox, Castle, but then you could be like, you know, Harper might just be undeniable. Like it might just turn into after a couple months. It's like, we just have to have Harper have the basketball in his hands the entire time. And then everybody's going to have to adjust off of that because he's going to be our second best player. And let's not get in the way of this because Ginobili was really good off the bench 20 fucking years ago. All right. I just hate reading about the Ginobili. It would be stupid to extend him for another two or three years on this at the escalating number. I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever, but it will be their undoing or blame for their undoing if they come up short. You are hesitating on this. I think they're totally fucked if they don't extend Kat. Like, how do you replace the max number? No, and I don't think he wants the max thing either. Like, he doesn't want 270. That's two different things. But I think, you know, if it's 230, let's call it that. Right. So instead of him making 75, he's making close to $60 million a year or whatever. I mean, the problem is he has them totally over a barrel right now, because if you think about what happens if they don't resign him, if he was to go to, I'm just thinking of a team that has cap space next summer, Atlanta has flexibility to be able to do something like this, right? Okay. They have nothing else in the front court, Ryan. They have OG and Anobi, who's great, and I love OG, but like they have Andre Drummond. They lost their other team. They lost their other two centers, right? Yeah. Like, they have nothing else there, and because they're already expensive, and because you're definitely resigning Jalen Brunson, okay, you're looking at now trading one of Anobi or Bridges to go get a big, because those are really like the only guys they have value wise, because, oh, by the way, Josh Hart is also a free agent, and oh, by the way, Deuce McBride is also a free agent, and you don't have a crazy number of picks because you moved them to get Mikael Bridges. So, I really actually kind of think that Kat has them over a barrel from an extension perspective. If they don't resign him, it's over. Like, this era of Knicks basketball is done. You think he opts out, and then he's a free agent and sees what's available? Someone definitely gives him three years, $180 million, and that's better than one year, or somebody even gives him three years, $150 million, let's say, and that's definitely, definitely better than one year, $60 million. No, I understand the opting out, and then, hey, I don't need to bump up from this average, but it's two different conversations. The full thing that he's eligible for and the way he's talked about it makes me go like, well, I don't, even with just winning a title, which he said, yeah, like, pay me, I just won. I mean, you know, we're all reading the same shit. I, I don't know, man. I still, I don't know. I know no one's going to agree with me anymore. He's still somebody that I'd be like, I really don't want to have to pay him that much money, but it's not even about him as it is the options, as you're pointing out. He can't, yeah, to me, it's the, what is the opportunity cost of losing cat? It's, you have no other options in this era of Knicks basketball ends, and if you're James Dolan, everyone blames you, and you're seen as the guy that broke up a title team after you brought the title back to New York. Probably not a great way to engender goodwill moving forward. But yeah, to me, it's just like, all right, I think they kind of have to do this. And the fact that they're going to. to let this kind of hang over their head in the regular season feels kind of crazy to me i don't even think i disagree with you totally on what cat is as a player because i don't think he can give that kind of defensive effort that he gave he was genuinely an awesome defender in the playoffs this past year and i don't think he can give that defensive effort over the course of an 82 game season there are going to be moments that you're 100 right where he drives you crazy and you just have to trust now that he's going to bring it in the playoffs in the way that he did to get the knicks to the title now i think that's kind of enough for where the knicks are as an organization but i understand that look i'm not excited about paying cat deep into his 30s 65 or 60 million dollars or whatever but i just don't think they have another option it's funny how it gets packaged too because it's like well heart and then deuce mcbride and then when i saw like kholik and one of the things were like they have a decision to make i'm like now you guys are just like at like you the priority for kholik's money and you're going hey and they look they get off to a slow start this will be the talking point it will blind any other issues that they could possibly have which wouldn't be shocking if the knicks end up being like a three or four seed and then we go to the playoffs and no one's really separated themselves and you're like wait a minute do i trust cleveland do i trust detroit's offense what does boston look like with their history they could be the three four seed and i may still pick them once the playoffs get rolling because of who brunson is and what we just saw that group do i'm gonna be honest i don't usually get excited about loyalty programs they promise big rewards then it's like you actually have to eat 48 pizzas to get one free so when i heard about the shell fuel rewards program i was skeptical shocking i know me skeptical but here's the thing it's actually kind of annoyingly practical you're already getting gas you're already grabbing takeout you're already buying snacks you definitely didn't need but absolutely deserve with shell fuel rewards you just get rewarded for that and not a fake point you'll never use way it's actual savings on gas and the part that got me the savings stack so it's not like one sad little discount it's you fill up you eat your shop and it all piles up into real savings at the pump joining takes less than three minutes in the shell app and you'll save on every fill after that literally every single one so if you want my rec join the shell fuel rewards program and save we'll be right back after a quick word from our sponsors football season's here and whether you're grinding your way through the week or gearing up for kickoff there's one ride that's always game ready the chevy silverado there's a reason chevy is called the heartbeat of america and silverado keeps that heartbeat strong whether you're towing hauling or tailgating silverado lets you show up strong and tackle any task with best in class standard torque the most functional bed and the advanced tech that's football guy approved check out offers on the twenty twenty six silverado at chevy.com. All right so the top four I have a literal draft board of thirty teams I don't know if that's why you did this Ryan but I literally created a draft board for this because I don't know any other way how to do things my four teams are off the board. My fifth team is Minnesota I'm fascinated to see how this Minnesota team is going to work with lamello if you think about the way that they've won. Just real quick the tight the ceiling for them I think is probably the western conference finals again I think a little bit wild if they really came together and beat both san antonio and or oklahoma city but if you think about the way minnesota's won the last couple years it's been and it's been like kind of bruising teams with those three bigs with rudy gobert julius randall. Nas read plus being bigger than everybody else by playing jaden mcdaniels who's like six nine six ten on the perimeter it's a totally different team now and it's a totally different paradigm of how they're going to beat teams because you have lamello coming in and I know that you've long been a lamello questioner I certainly have been a lamello questioner in the past he really kind of turned me last year in a real way. I have questions on whether or not he's going to stay healthy but I had him sixteen in all nba last season I thought he was an awesome basketball player he was the clear driving force on why that charlotte hornets team was so fun to watch it was so great I kind of think it's going to work and it's going to be a really positive offensive ecosystem it's just that it's changing what they are to a pretty drastic level in my mind. Because you can say whatever about julius randall it seems very clear based on all of the comments that they've made publicly in press conferences and everything that he wore out as welcome also like nas reads body language can get a little bit shitty on the court it's like I'm not like hurting nas read here I like nas read a lot as a player but there are moments where he can get a little bit frustrated and it can feel a little bit tough and one of the things that they said in a press conference recently is that you know they've traded you know. You know kind of being dour for being giddy you know at times on the court and that could really elevate everybody I think that there is something to that it's just such a it's such a fundamental shift in terms of how they beat teams that I'm fascinated to learn how it goes in the early portion of the season from an interest level you could say minnesota's the first pick so great value in that five slot sam but I'm not I'm not surprised by that at all I'm with you on all of it I think if we focus on. I think if we focus on how they've advanced in the playoffs at least early. You know they really kind of took the manhood from the nuggets in that series you know and I think jd mcdaniels who I haven't always loved. Really showed me something in that series like they were pissed off they were like mad the nuggets like you guys think you're going to beat us again I granted Aaron Gordon only plays three games. You could probably you know you could argue it's one of the worst series he's ever had. But then when I think about them beating up on the lakers the lakers in that matchup I remember being in the building for game one being like this isn't going to change. Like the lakers are going to grow between game one and game two so it was also an incredible advantage maybe even more so than just a philosophical approach building the roster so the pivot from that is interesting and I'm going to credit john schumann who does a great job for nba.com and he has this awesome lamella ball number so if you look at. The shot quality of his teammates so teammates in a season with five hundred more shots off passes from the player these passes from mellow to all of his hornets teammates last season that shot quality ranked thirteenth in the nba. However if you look at mellows own shot quality of a hundred and eighty three players with five hundred more field goal attempts lamella ball ranked one seventy four out of one eighty three in shot quality so what the timberwolves are doing because this is a really smart organization that for whatever reason keeps signing or trading for people that aren't my favorite even though I know how good they are I look at it and go. They're sitting they know this shit right. And when they brought. In coming I'm like are they trying to get finished to retire what are they doing to my guy and she and. They they have to be going like is there is the reward of getting it off the ball instead of running in the great wall of china defense is that every team loads up on him and makes it so frustrating for him like you think back to that thunder series a couple series a couple seasons ago where it's like oh he's not shooting enough and it's like are you looking at what this guy is like sure he could take it twenty five shots there. Twenty of them are going to be dog shit shots. Freeing him up is that going to outweigh the lamella moments where say they're in the second round of the playoffs it's game five and he's sitting there like ice in his veins while two people run past him because he still can't figure that shit out and it's not a bet I would make but I understand the bet they're making because they don't want to watch and dribble into a wall all the time if this team were to advance. One. The other thing that I'll point out here is forget just and dribbling into a wall I mean this is now the mellow ball getting to play with rudy go bear who is a better screener than anybody who's ever played with who is a better lob threat than anybody who's ever played with all due respect to mark williams I guess but like. Rudy rudy catches the ball well above his shoulders if it's anywhere else. The questions happen but like he's a real finisher in a way. That will mellows never had before. We'll see I'm going to I'm going to track lob attempts to rudy by month. I'm going to guess that that number goes in half by the time we're in we're in april. Well here the other looks like anybody else has played with rudy for a while. Here's the thing though ryan like this is the other fascinating thing with minnesota is that tim connelly is out of contract at the end of the year rudy go bear also can be a free agent at the end of the year and okay. If it's going great. They obviously keep them and they try to contend for a title and everything if it's going okay is he like a trade target in the middle of the season I don't know it's it's a weird situation I think for minnesota right now like it's very clear tim connelly has just gone all in and I think that whatever they can do to maximize this one year window at least they're going to do that but is there a chance that. they you know kind of shift the idea of things aren't going great in some way shape or form if the draft is based on interest then i have to take the portland trailblazers now before somebody else grabs them i have them in the top 10 so i i totally get this it's a bit of a reach but that's okay we worked them out in serbia and we we just we feel really good about the information we have a good relationship there so i have ceiling at six seed um yeah the floor is certainly out of the plan i think that's in the mix as well uh and this went from one of my favorite teams last year and i love that spurs series completely outmanned i love the scoop moments i love the showdown with dylan where probably dylan handled it a hell of a lot better than scoot did um but i at least i saw it you know i saw the life and the fight from this draft prospect that i love i love the drew holiday stuff even though after a while it's like hey can i not get sealed at the rim by wemby anymore like i know i'm versatile but this is starting to suck and then you have the denny avdia thing where have fun last year buddy because that's never going to happen again because they have the most confusing backcourt plan i've seen in a really long time now let me talk about dame and jaw here for a bit i remember when i was in portland and i would always ask about like you know is he never going to get a little little pissy you know if you guys don't win a little bit more like he's never going to get and it was explained to me it was right because it went on for years that he stayed there it's like what you don't understand about dame is that he likes this he likes to be the man here um he he gets his points he's great we don't have any issues with him but he's very comfortable here and so then he goes to milwaukee it's a disaster and then he has all of his money and he can rehab game and you would have thought most guys with his career would be like let me let me link up with somebody where i can be a contributor and win and instead he was like no let me go back to portland and be the fucking marquee attraction here let me recapture what i had i thought that was very telling about him as a player and then you pair that with jaw who clearly wants his rep and status back he's too young to not think you think john morant thinks he's not awesome of course not so you're putting those two guys together out there at the same time you can talk about staggering them you can talk about managing injuries that there's going to be plenty of times for them to have the ball but what you're really doing scoots fucked by the way drew holiday is going to be like i'm better than both these guys and i'm watching but to take the ball out of denny abdi his hands when all of these guys are out there at the same time you just hurt your best player and i cannot for the life of me you want to talk about pricing this is kind of the wizard's thing of like well if you're getting trey young for kissbird cj mccollum you didn't do this price like you just have to go ahead and do it you also could not do this and um yeah they did it so i agree with a lot of what you're saying and this is why i took their under in the western conference over under win totals that we did on our show with jason like 41 and a half i think yeah okay what if dame didn't go back there because he wanted to be the man what if he just felt really comfortable with their training staff as he was recovering from the injury and he understands where he is in his career because what i've really liked about them in the preseason is the way that they're using dame off the ball as a shooter and using him basically to space the court for all of like scoot or jaw and denny on the court right now the thing that i think is going to throw this all for a spanner is like i have not really loved what i've seen from john moran in the preseason i think he doesn't look as bouncy i think he doesn't look as my guess is that teams will probably start playing off of him a little bit more throughout the course of the regular season than what they are now because of that and because he's still not as good of a shooter as maybe he should have developed into at some point in his career we'll see about that the thing that i've loved though is the way that they're kind of getting into different actions they're basically using dame almost as like a decoy and as sometimes even like as a screener but more as hey we're just gonna like use him to bring the ball up the court we're gonna use denny to bring the ball up the court and then we're gonna involve dame in the action we're gonna make them guard dame as a shooter and it opens up the court for everybody that's handling the ball right i think that's the best way to use dame and as long as he's good with that just basically being a shooting guard instead of playing on the ball and being like a primary point i think it works a lot better now you brought up scoop i i don't know how much you've watched this preseason he looks awesome he looks back like explosively athletically to what frankly we haven't really seen from him the nba because if you remember his rookie season he like injured his ankle in november or something like that and then last year he came in off of that quad tear and he just didn't have the athleticism that we have seen from him previously this year he looks like he's got the shot figured out because he's been rehabbing for so long and he looks to have the bounce back where he's trying to dunk on everybody ryan and it's like oh they might really have something here with scoot let's see what this looks like maybe without jaw morant would be the vision but because they've traded for jaw how much is scoot gonna get a chance to run it i don't know it's all of those pieces and you brought up the denny piece of it where i'm hopeful that denny just has more space some of the time with all these creators out there but i don't know if he's going to with jaw particularly to me this is all about jaw because i just have so many questions about what the fit for him is if he's not on the team it makes a whole lot more sense in my opinion your pick okay i'm gonna go toronto i think that the ceiling is the nba finals i don't think that they can beat either oklahoma city or san antonio the floor is probably like 44 wins and like any team in the east outside of maybe the knicks i think the floor is probably the play-in tournament it's just the way that this season is uh in the east where everyone is so loaded the big question for me is just scotty barnes i know what kawaii is kawaii is a stud like i have no worries as long as he's healthy do we get the scotty barnes that we saw in the playoffs where it's i'm barreling into the rim every time and i am bigger and more athletic than all of you guys and i'm gonna get nine free throw attempts from you guys and i'm gonna get nine free throw attempts from you guys and i'm gonna get as opposed to the four free throw attempts per game he's averaged throughout the course of his career uh it is well established on this podcast rarely does somebody lose in the first round and i go i now love that guy and his name is scotty barnes so i'm with you uh i love murray boils from what i saw in that series he will likely you know it could be a matchup thing i think teams like um i'm fertile somebody i've always kind of liked but you could see you can series where it's like actually we're just gonna go murray boils here but at least they have the optionality of it which is something that i really like um it feels like the drop off from the first five to the second five is significant which makes sense um because of some of the trade stuff i think there was even like a little bit of an rj barrett bump for them my favorite part of this is that brandon ingram will not be playing during the playoffs and taking up shots because there's no one i think that has a bigger drop off of what he's capable of doing in a regular season game to it expected like hey this is high i just imagine that during timeouts he goes back to the bench being like this kind of sucks out here they're getting they're like grabbing and stuff you're like yeah man it's the playoffs i'm a little worried about the kawaii part of this um as i've said you know this is kind of who he's always been it just took us forever to figure it out i think he's all about himself he's like the only guy that had an issue with the spurs now we've been through this whole clippers thing and he turned down trades to other teams and i think it's because he knew toronto was going to do whatever the fuck he wanted because he was allowed to do whatever he wanted when he won the title and i don't think he's going to be able to do whatever he wanted i don't blame them for worshiping this guy but when he went there in 2019 remember he played 60 games and you're watching it going like hey it's good but like do we even know what they are or like how is this going to work and it works it works in all-time fashion a couple injuries of golden state helped it as well but you know he got the extension which is i think why i knew it was like i just go there and do whatever i want if we get the kawaii that we saw from last year i don't think the final ceiling is crazy at all but i don't think it's wrong of any of us to go is this guy actually so about himself that he's not showing up to toronto knowing that like hey this this team has a real chance here since he just got paid again it's not impossible i will say i think he plays like a unselfish game on the court in a way that makes it makes sense that's fine yeah i totally understand where you're coming from in terms of like holding the organization like hostage a little bit i think that that's like a pretty real thing with him obviously given the entire investigation that just occurred with the la clippers but i don't like i think that on the court the fit just works and this is a team the weird loss for them that i think is important is actually sandro because sandro mamou kelishvili made their bench unit work at a high level because he could come out and shoot and space the court and grab and go on the break losing him i think is the depth piece that they're gonna miss this year off the bench it bench unit makes a little bit less sense now because they don't have that big who can grab and go and shoot the ball from three Jamal shed like needed that space I felt like and I love Jamal shed as a player but I'll be interested to watch what he becomes this year without that spacing weapon at the five all right I know this is going to seem as interesting but I I'm going to go with Detroit um and here's why it's a one seed that as you watch it against Orlando you go this kind of makes sense because we all had the same concerns about their offense um the offense was actually ninth in the regular season it fell by seven points per 100 possessions once again in the playoffs we know they're built on defense but it was alarming seeing how bad the offense got clogged up there and Dern had a super disappointing series uh really throughout the playoffs you know what I've seen really good players look totally uncomfortable their first time through um it'd be nice if you reminded him like hey you remember how powerful and explosive you are and like you probably just shouldn't dick around and make something happen uh and Cade also makes it really easy for you it feels like they picked up anybody that has had a shooting resume at some point whether it's Duncan or Herter then they bring in Isaiah Joe they switch out Harris who is all hey he is he out there but I mean we're talking about somebody who got 30 in game seven against Orlando and so even though John Collins in playing what 69 games for the Clippers like that last year you look at the numbers and you're like and he's over 40 from three like it makes you think like wow what a nice little piece but he's like the perfect Tobias Harris replacement because you're like there's also going to be times where I forget that you're even out there even if athletically off a Cade it probably is more promising um so I don't mind if they moved off a stew you know I know they're trying to figure out a way but there's something to be said about like Cade might be so good yeah that he can March them to a one or two seed and we may be doing the same exact thing about their offense but I really think like he's knocking on the door of like hey he's going to be a top five guy for multiple years and not just be a top five season player so it's it's kind of reminded me a little bit of like Luca in the Eastern Conference where I can have all of these questions but he might just be so good that he's going to drag them to the best record of the East all over again and nobody's even talking about him if he drags this team to the best record in the East again he is a very real MVP candidate to me that's just the reality because I actually don't like the way this team is set up right now I don't love the John Collins fit at all I think that there's a lot of duplicative skills between him and Jalen Duren the reason John Collins shoots 40 from three is because teams don't really guard him a whole lot out there say whatever you will about Tobias Harris because Tobias can attack closeouts because he can knock down shots off the catch teams did tend to guard him yeah there's no way Collins is doing what Harris bailed them out of a lot of big-time possessions like he Collins is not creating that stuff on his own the way Harris did so I agree with you there and this feeds into my biggest question with them right is they actually don't really have like a secondary shock creator all due respect to Danis Jenkins who I really like and all due respect to Abuko Okori who might be a really good player down the road and Ron Holland who I think is just mad I'm not sure always bad on the court yeah he plays with a real edge I love it hey look Asar like we all like we're not even mentioning him because of your point like you're never going like empty side Asar figure it out there's nothing that tells us that's going to happen that's exactly what their biggest question is to me do they go out and finally go get their second score because last year they at least had Tobias who could five seconds left on the shot clock he could go like tuck in and get in the mid post and create a shot if Cade couldn't do it himself or if Cade was on the bench this year like I don't even know that they have that guy right now so they have to go do something at the deadline if they want to make it out of the first round of the playoffs really because they probably should have lost Orlando and they would have if Franz Wagner didn't get hurt what is their move in season to go get that secondary score is it something smaller like they just go reacquire Dennis Schroeder or something like that or is it we're gonna go and get a Trey Murphy a Michael Porter Jr whatever that looks like that we think can be the real number two next to what we've built I wonder if they give a Corey you know their draft pick from Stanford if they give him like a two-week run at like running the second unit and just say like is this guy so athletic that yeah it's just gonna over um then Dana's gonna be like what the yeah that will happen at some point it will definitely happen at some point yeah all right your pick I'm up next I will go I mean we haven't talked about Miami yet so I'll talk about Miami okay the ceiling for this team to me is 50 wins in the finals I think they can make the finals this year because spo is so good in those playoff situations that you're giving him Giannis and you're telling me that we can create the best most like flexible defensive strategy in the league where we can kind of do whatever an opposing team matches up with and then oh by the way they have to stop Giannis surrounded by shooters on the other end I kind of think spoke and make that work in playoff situations the floor to me is that they're probably in the like they could easily be in the play-in I think they'll make the playoffs in the plan yeah no I think they'll win in the play-in but they could be in the play-in easily and all of this is just about how does this integration go with Bama to bio and Giannis so it's an interesting change for Giannis because the way that Miami's offense runs is it's very low in ball screen usage and it's very high on like isolation spacing attacking dribble drive and then finding kickouts for three or for attacked closeouts I think it's an offense that really works for Giannis but a big key with that so that teams can't load up on Giannis is the guys like Davion Mitchell and Bama to bio have to be able to knock down shots they just have to because even though they went out and got Clay Thompson Tim Hardaway Jr we can throw Peli Larson into the group that has to knock down shots as well they need to have the spacing to make that work for Giannis otherwise teams are just going to load up against them you know this is something that he fans have brought up and they're totally right to do is like hey where's our shooting well look at Wiggins numbers 41 last year look at Davion when he's taken you know three a game and he's hit 45 and 40 granted the 45 was the smaller sample with Miami but that's back-to-back seasons Hardaway's 41 on seven threes game and then you factor in clay I don't think clay will be a starter on this team I think they're doing it right now because that was part of the pitch to bring them over here but it was interesting like I was looking at the Dallas numbers again he played 21 minutes a game he took 16 and a half three-point attempts per 100 possessions he's basically this is the only thing you're doing out here because that number is staggering in comparison to his career where it's 12 threes per 100 possessions he's also been a negative on the box score for about four straight years so when I look at him going like hey we have shooting we got Clay Thompson he for a team like that you think ceiling can even get out of this conference which I think is higher it's higher than I have them ceiling wise uh I wonder when that decision happens but you know look when Yannis is right I don't think there's five better players in the world I know people are going to be like maybe he gets hurt all kind of stuff maybe they just go back to Giannis like picking it up at half court barreling through everybody and there's your spacing because everyone's collapsing on him the gravity of all that stuff maybe Bam can do enough like elbow baseline whatever so it's not too clogged up and then yeah you know Giannis one of my favorite things about his game isn't just his intuit but the passing part of it like maybe a lot of these shots are open maybe Davion Mitchell has more open shots maybe it's okay for Wiggins but this team gets a little thin for my liking as much as I love Yannis and the Spoh combination I think that's right I don't have any real beef with that it's just that they play super fast and they might be able to make the offense work by playing super fast and then defensively again they just have so many different options defensively they can throw out crazy zone looks they can Blitz you they can play and drop with them you know Bam's not the best drop Defender but oh wait now on the back line you have Giannis patrolling the rim against or like when Bam is in drop or playing higher up the court if you want they just have so many different options to make it difficult for opposing teams but yeah I think this team's going to be really fun and really good all right stop me if you heard this before I kind of like the Orlando Magic entering this season do you have a problem Ryan I do I do and it's just outside of a town called celebration um my ceiling's a three seed I think one or two would be a little lofty I think the the floor here is a seven seed they gotta win another plan to get out of there I think this team is in the playoffs um what a great top seven 50 wins in the second round so this is kind of yeah I mean to me they're getting to the second round if they're through but I don't know I mean there's so many of these three six four or five matchups you're gonna look at I mean there could be a sneaky two seven hell we had the one eight last year so yeah um love the top seven that's including De Silva who to remind people on four three-point attempts per game last year 37 percent um you know it's an interesting relationship that this franchise has had with the three-point shot if you want a little history lesson we can do it in 23 they finished 24th and 24 they finished 24th and 25 they finished 30th. They were like, dude, let's get Desmond Bain. He fucking is awesome at shooting threes. Yeah, let's do it. And then they finished 27th in three-point shooting percentage. Mosley not being there has to be eight extra wins. And I'm not talking about strategy. They were so done with him. And, you know, look, it'd be nice if they played a little faster. Maybe Paolo doesn't want to play a little bit faster. It's a very delicate thing of, like, I don't want to take out Paolo's attacks. I don't want to take away Bain's comfort with making decisions with the ball. I don't want Anthony Black to take, you know, I don't want Franz not think that he can't attack. You have to find a way to get everybody to feel like they still have freedom. But I think the freedom with some of these dudes leads to the other guys, like, thinking there's no second action, you know? So what should happen is the freedom should lead to I have the advantage, I'm going, or I'm getting free throws, or there's actually something else that I'm looking at here because this offense over the years, it's just at times unwatchable, and they should never be this bad. Yeah, it was putrid under Mosley. There's not really another way to put it. So far in the preseason, sixth in three-point attempts per game. Like, they're really going out there and firing from three. They have empowered a lot of these guys. Hey, you've just got to go shoot. You have to be able to space the court for Paolo on these drives, for Franz on these drives. It's a non-negotiable. If you catch the ball and you are open, you have to fire. And, you know, Sean Sweeney gets a lot of credit for being a great defensive coach, and he is a great defensive coach. He's just been around so many well-spaced offensive ecosystems at this point that I'm sure by osmosis, even though he was running the defense, a lot of it had to transfer to him offensively in terms of making everything structurally make sense. We'll be right back after a quick word from our sponsors. The course is calling, and your Chevy Equinox can take on whatever the day throws at you. Stylish and ready for anything, Equinox handles your commute, weekend trips, and even those last-minute tee times. Easily load up your clubs and gear with plenty of cargo space plus hidden storage under the rear floor to keep things neat. And with a big standout touchscreen, the Equinox puts all your tech right where you need it. Bold and confident, Equinox looks just as good on the road as it does down the back roads. From the first drive to the final putt, Equinox is built to do more, so you can focus on the game. Cozy season is upon us. 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And then, oh, by the way, there was two people that were. Yeah. Like whoever, like, it was me and Keyshawn George when the Trey Young trade happened that were the most bummed out people. But like, here's the thing. Trey might create a bunch of open threes for these guys. So it could work. That's what I'm hearing. Yeah. So, AJ DePonce is now there. He is going to be everyone's most. They're so excited to watch him. And then they watch him for three games and he's just barreling into the rim and drawing fouls. And they're like, oh, this isn't actually all that fun of a watch. But he's awesome. He's so good at basketball. He's going to end up averaging 25 points per game at some point in his career. And then you still have Alex Saar. You still have Will Riley, who's like a really fun basketball player. Like, you can go up and down the board. Trey Johnson's been. He's been really fun in the preseason. Like, there are so many dudes on this team. They have Bilal Koulibaly, like in a contract year, like, again, looks pretty good in the preseason so far. They look awesome defensively in the preseason. They are just limbs and arms everywhere. They are disruptive. DePonce, like for being as non-attentive as he was off the ball defensively, like he has come into the preseason and is like, I am going to give 100% effort on the ball defensively and I'm going to just use my athleticism to be disruptive and come in and try to make an impact that way. I mean, look, a huge part of this is whatever the Anthony Davis situation is. Like, is he going to be able to play 50 games? Is he going to be able to play 40 games? Is he going to play 65 games and be an all-NBA guy again? If you told me Anthony Davis plays 65 games and this is where I'm going to get to my ceiling, if you told me he plays 65 games, which is unlikely, but let's stay with me for a second, and you told me Trey Young plays 60 games, this team's ceiling is the sixth seed, Ryan. Like, they could easily be just in the playoffs. They also might win 32 games because they're super young and maybe Trey and Anthony Davis missed a bunch of time and it looks ugly. They have the biggest chasm between what their ceiling and floor is to me in the NBA. I had six seed to 12 seed as my ceiling to floor. So we were on the same page. Like, if it all kind of works out, because, look, we had Winger on the pod during the combine. I know what the pitch is. I also think those of us that talk to anybody in the league, it felt like ownership said, enough of this shit. We need to start winning some games. And it was like, so if we never win any and we're actually in the playoffs, like, isn't that a great improvement from this? Because I am afraid of, like, the best version of this. The story is Trey Young sets us up and gets us into possessions. It's somebody who actually knows how to run an offense as opposed to what we've been doing here. And I'm like, okay, like, I have to agree with you on that. My problem is, is that when it turns into the Trey Young show, does that mean the Bantz is going like, uh, I was the number one pick? Does it mean Keyshawn George is stunted? You know, like, I don't even hear about Trey Johnson anymore. And I'm like, dude, Trey Johnson had some promising moments last year. And maybe I'm rounding up because he's somebody where when I did the draft stuff on, I'm like, hey, you can see how this can work. Because, like, this is real elite shooting with a guy who has a little bit of bounce to him. The Sar thing's weird. I mean, it's hilarious to look at their depth chart already and see that he's listed at center and Davis is listed at power four when Sar wants to shoot three. So he shoots, like, four a game. So I don't understand what the fuck that's going to be. Aiton being on this team is hilarious. I'm going to tell you, like, there's a lot of guys on this team that I like, but I understand them saying philosophically, like, we needed more organization. Let's see what's going to happen. And I even had a team tell me, like, just to finish this thought on the Trey Young thing, because I've been bitching about his contract, being like, who are you bidding against? I was told there was another suitor. So I don't know. I might have to make some calls, but I don't know why you did it unless it was all handled ahead of time. And they just were like, you know, we're just going to do this. You're going to sit out. We're going to try to get a better pick. Go ahead. I find it hard to believe that there was another suitor at that. Not number, but I'm sure there were other. We are aligned. We are aligned. The funny thing is that, like, they still like Justin Champagny is going to be one of the most, like, prized players at the deadline because he's on a minimum, which means all of these teams that are close to the second apron can actually go acquire him, like, super easily. Like, is he? He's probably in the rotation to start the year, but they have so many guys that, okay, maybe him and Will Riley. And I don't know. I really like him. I like Will Riley. I think he's an awesome player. Middleton's on the team. Chris Middleton's on the team. Is he going to play at all? I don't know. He had 35 against Memphis last March. We still get some tread on those tires. It's a fascinating team. Honestly, I think I will watch every Wizards game for the first two weeks of the year, at least, because I just find this entire situation so bizarre and awesome, frankly. Like, they have, Washington has been starved for, like, a real talented team, at least, for a while. And I'm excited. I'm excited that they have that, at least. All right. I'm going to go with the Pacers for my next pick. I have Eastern Conference Finals as the ceiling. I don't think they can get through everybody this year. And then the floor would be the eighth seed. I've even seen it lower for some people. Now, let's go back to two years ago. What did the Pacers teach us? They told us that ball movement, depth, real depth. Like, wait, you're going to play that many guys in the playoffs type of depth? If you look at it, two years ago when they made their finals run, they had nine players between 14 and 34 minutes. Remember that Knicks series? It's like, we're going to run a million guys out there, and when they're out there, they're going to run like crazy on top of everything else. I have a rule about things. It's like, hey, if we've never said this, but we're only saying it now, is it possibly true? When it's like, hey, Halliburton, because that was the other thing. It's like, they're going to make the NBA Finals with a top 10 player. Then it was kind of like, well, Halliburton is a top 10 player. I'm like, yep, but we've never ever said it, like, the entire year. And the reason that conversation has gone away, Obviously, it's because of the Achilles injury, but a lot of the same pieces are in play. and it's Carlisle so it's like just round it up man like he's gonna figure out a way I think the one thing that I'm trying to figure out is that the Miles Turner part of it provided that real stretch five Miles Turner's not for everybody he's had such a crazy up and down career and it ended great as far as the financial part of this but when Zubats is in there somebody who's made one career three and taken 12 like does that change the best version of what we saw two years ago simply because now you don't now maybe it's a post matchup you know granted I don't give a shit like it's my old ED conversation like yeah he's great in the post oh cool nobody does it anymore is there a center to center matchup where they're like zoo so good that this is this other thing that we can do and it's like what does that mean you're going to do it four times in a game so the non-traditional stretch five not being part of this group gives me pause to say hey they're they're right there with everybody else in the east because it's gonna it has to look different just based on personnel even if the rest of the pieces are the same well and just like thinking about the way that that bears out schematically on the court right part of how the Pacers obliterated teams during that great run to the finals was they ran so many guard to guard actions where they're getting early on offense and one of the guards is coming up and screening for Halliburton or one of the guards is coming up and screening for Nembhard and then you have Halliburton on the second side right and part of that is that Turner would either trail or he would be in the corner or on the wing from three now you have zoo bots does it mean that you have to go more just straight one five two five ball screens do you have versatility in terms of unpredictability of who is screening and what the defense can do and what the defense can do and what the defense can do and what the defense can expect and can load up for offensively how do they end up managing that do they still go to guard to guard actions and then they go to zoo bots just in the dunker spot I think it's possible but if you do that then there are diminishing returns on Siakam drives when the ball swings to the second side and Siakam goes into the lane and he likes an open lane to be able to attack into and he likes the mid post game to be able to attack from so how the zoo bots Siakam kind of pairing works and how they get into their screening actions is to me the most interesting part of how Turner changes their entire the Turner zoo bots which changes their entire offense all right your pick okay I am going to go with the Lakers the ceiling is the second round to me I don't think that they will be either of the Spurs or the Thunder the floor is the play-in if Kessler gets hurt like if Walker Kessler gets hurt there they have no way to guard anybody I think and even in the minutes where Kessler is off the court I don't know how they're going to be able to guard anybody but my god like I think Luca is going to come in and just destroy worlds the way that he looked before his injury against Oklahoma City in March was unbelievable he clearly had ascended into being one of the three best players in the it's hard to imagine the Lakers not being in the playoffs not the play-in but it's a totally new team it's a totally different situation there with Grimes and Kessler and Sandro and Sexton and those guys coming in instead of LeBron I definitely want to watch them I think that they're going to be a really fun watch at least yeah it's a great pick because I'm like you with everybody else you I'm over in Slovenia with him and it's like it just feels like he is ready to go granted the injury history with him isn't great but if we're talking about like the best case scenario of it I still think it's a second round I mean something else would have to go drastically wrong I think the floor is the first round exit because I think there's plenty of matchups even if they were the three seed what if it's 3-6 Denver what if it's 3-6 Minnesota could they lose to Houston even though that series was strange but this Houston team with Van Vliet back like there's all sorts of first-round competition there's all sorts of first-round competition there's all sorts of combos where I could go depending on which side of the four or five they're on I could see him losing in the first round I just wonder if there'll be you know it's a bit like your cat point in the beginning it's like all right you can say whatever you want about who he is what he's worth and open market and cap and all that kind of stuff but when they don't have any options the Lakers did not want to keep doing this at center they had no options and they trade all the shit and then give Kessler all that extra money on top of everything else which should tell you I just think the jazz I'm just so proud of everything they do where they go yeah we really like Kessler like we offered him a really nice contract you're gonna offer us what for this guy like yeah go ahead because you know there's some rim protection numbers for him where they're just off the charts his rookie year is his best year and it's been four years now I'm not as worried about the shoulder injury I imagine the same thing for you because we know what Utah was doing last year they didn't want him playing in those games and it worked out for everybody there's also something to be said of like yeah your block rate goes down when you have to play more than 20 minutes a game you know so that's there's there's some stuff there that'll happen that I dug in with him where it just makes sense like the more that you're out there then some of these numbers get dragged down there a little bit I wonder in this fan base that I would put up there with like the Yankees or the Packers or you know the Canadians or anybody else like if the Kessler part of it doesn't feel like it's working out um you know it's not about the buyer's remorse thing is is way down the road it's just like hey how is this going to look for the next six months that's the real conversation but he might be put in situations where he's cleaning up all these fucking defensive disasters on the perimeter and it's not even his fault um yeah I'd imagine he's smart and athletic enough to live off of the the Luca part of it that's all you need is somebody who's just aware be like you know how easy your life is going to be on these roles something DeAndre for whatever the fuck reason couldn't figure it out so I think Kessler's fine there but I just it's like I hope there's some people that have like tempered expectations of what's going to happen in the future and I don't think there's going to be any expectations about who he really is and he still might be an impossible situation despite the defensive profile he's an awesome he's an awesome player when he's healthy I think like he is way more versatile defensively than what he gets credit for like you can not just play him and drop he's elite and drop coverage but he is able to show and recover he's able to play at the level he can do a whole lot of different things at the end of the day he's still somewhat limited like he can't create his own shot like he can't create his own shot like he is he improved a lot as a passer and playmaker I will say that in Utah I do think part of that is the scheme from Will Riley or Will Hardy rather I'm sorry they use so many different DHOs so many different situations to get him into space to be able to make easier decisions but I think JJ Reddick's a terrific coach too to be honest with you and I think that he'll also put Kessler in situations where okay you're gonna double Luca that's fine short roll and he'll be able to make a quick decision and in space he'll be able to make a quick decision and he'll be able to make a quick and with opportunity so I think it's a great fit and obviously Kessler is one of the best finishers in the NBA so offensively I think it's a great fit it just is that because he's not a shot creator and because he's going to be holding up this defense like he's Atlas holding up the world it's it might lead to some frustrations I think given what they had to give up for him all right you're up all right final pick up part one and then we'll do the rest of the team 16 more teams to go and then our finals picks as well perfect transition because I'm picking Utah here I can't wait I cannot wait to watch this team this year um you know I I think you ended up with Peterson one when it was all said and done correct or you had three oh you're like the one guy that didn't have them on okay all right yeah uh look Keontae got paid so if he wasn't paid considering the jump that he had into year three I could go well maybe there's a little bit of a problem there because he had like you know usage goes up and then the offense goes up and then the offense goes up and then the offense goes up and then the efficiency goes up and for a smaller kind of like guard where you're like are you just one of those dudes who scored a million points in high school and like thinks he's better than everybody else um that was a really promising 50 plus games all right you can say it's an avoid that's fine um I think Ace Bailey had some really good moments even if the statistical profile but he's a really young player like there's more from Ace that I liked uh that as opposed to like you know there's just a little bit more in there it's not like it was Cody Williams all right um and I just love Peterson shot making with all this uh I think the marketing's life is going to be easier yes I'm worried about center because of as much as I love Jaron Jackson Jr behind him is Jackson Hayes and then Mo Bamba unless you want to put Filipowski on the center line there where it's like all they had to do was add Dwight Howard to have three of my least favorite backups all on the same team um and he's available if they want to go ahead and sign him but I'm just happy that there's some semblance despite the lack of center depth here and and maybe like being in a tough spot of like Jaron Jackson who's just had health issues do you really want him playing at the five I just can't wait to see it look like a real basketball team instead of a plan like the plan is is coming together I can't wait for Will Hardy to be coaching competitive games at the end of the year and as far as like ceiling I don't think they crack into that top six but I think seven is in play it is a play-in I would be really disappointed if they're outside of the plan but there is kind of this weird jumbled group you state phoenix dallas utah where like a couple of these teams are going to get left out if you're including portland in there now maybe they're the one that jumps them is left out like there's going to be a couple teams here that are really disappointed with it but i feel like the steadiness and just i know what it's supposed to look like even if i'm not sure what it will is a much different way to enter the season for the jazz this year well i'll start with the good right i think that will hardy is like the perfect coach for this group of players you mentioned keontae george the big leap was foul rate right like he ended up getting fouled so much more because he was able to drive the ram correct he had like seven right free throw attempts per game last year yeah uh i because of that actually like the fit between him and darren peterson i think it's going to go fine because i think they both can play enough on the ball and both can play enough off of the ball to be able to within this offense which runs off of all sorts of screening actions all sorts of flares be able to work i had peterson three like it was you know you could have tossed these guys into a hat at the end of the day and ended up one two three however you wanted to rank them for me i had caleb just like a small step below while acknowledging the ceiling is just as high as these guys i think the floor was a little bit lower with caleb than some of these guys uh to me with darren it's how does he create easy shots with aj like i know that that guy can get to the foul line whenever he wants i know that cam boozer is literally a supercomputer in the way that he thinks the game offensively and he creates shots either for himself or for his teammates with darren it does feel like even in the preseason where he's been quite good for a rookie at the very least it feels like things still are a little bit more challenging and he's such a ridiculous shot maker that he makes it work but it's it's a really hard way to live and if he ends up being one of the five best shooters on planet earth he's going to be able to live that way and it's going to be great and i think he has that ceiling which is why i ranked him in that same group with those other two guys but even still like you can see it's just not he doesn't have quite the same level of burst as you know somebody like an anthony edwards or a donovan mitchell did when he first got to the nba but he has like kind of the herky jerky game to where he might be able to make it work in a similar way to mitchell to me this is all about can they finish outside of the bottom five defensively because keontae george is not a great defender i haven't loved him for a long time i haven't loved him for a long time i haven't loved him for a long time i haven't loved darren defensively uh he is certainly competitive and will try defensively but he's a rookie he's probably gonna stink it's probably gonna be rough defensively right larry marketing's not a monster defensively ace bailey gets lost off the ball quite a bit defensively at the center position it's nurkic who i thought had a great year last year it's just that he is very limited in terms of what he can do on that end and then it's jackson hayes kyle filipowski and it's jaron jackson jr. trying to hold this thing up all by himself it feels like and i've kind of felt like they're diminishing returns with jaron defensively over the last couple of years as well maybe that changes getting away from the memphis situation where he doesn't have to create as much offense as he did there if nurkic is back after this toe thing and it looks better and i think that puts jackson back in a situation where i think his best version was all the health defense stuff where it was just erasing all sorts of shit um but you know it's tbd on the nurkic part of it and that's why the center depth chart part of this looks so tough yeah and final thing here just on utah i think i'm like a little bit lower i was really excited to be super high on them if they had retained kessler i would have thought they were like a playoff team if they'd retain kessler but i understand why they had to do the deal i think it was the right decision for the organization long term teams wouldn't do that a lot of teams would not do what they did because they go hey we've been waiting around long enough and now we're going to get rid of our center and they just went like hey he's not worth what we're going to do we're being offered so we have to do the right value deal and i i admire the fuck out of them for doing this because i can't believe they actually did it it's a real credit to ryan smith to me particularly because totally like any other owner i think would have gotten antsy and he decided not to the thing i want to bring up here though is this is a team that generally has not won the possession game uh throughout the course of really will hardy's like tenure there uh last year we had a team that was a team that was a team that was a team that was a team that they were 22nd in turnover rate offensively 18th in turnover rate defensively uh they were 12th in offensive rebounding rate 24th in defensive rebounding rate in an era where it feels like teams are trying to maximize the possession number as much as they can this is a team that's kind of built the other way where when nurkic is not there they're going to lose the rebounding battle basically every night it feels like in the nba and with george and with peterson like they don't have a traditional hey let's like get the offense uh rolling let's be the fred van vliet style point guard who's able to organize everything offensively are they able to like survive the possession game enough to where will hardy's just like inherent offensive genius is able to make it work yeah the jackson thing without nurkic rebounding wise like that's the biggest knock although the two biggest knocks to be foul trouble and the lack of rebounding for somebody who's that close to the basket all the time um i argue on the possession thing it's just really hard to look at the hardy tenure when he's winning just under 40 of his games before each season you know when it's like okay now let's tank and then he's winning like 27 of his games when they're trying to lose every single one of them all right so we ripped through 14 we'll go quick we're 16 our finals picks for part two of our nba preview with sam bassini ryan rossillo show barstool sports you you you