NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

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This is your most rewarding season ever and it's with FanDuel. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where we put up part one of this episode, the annual NBA over-unders podcast. We did the West. Joe House was involved. Zach Lowe, he was involved as well. We took a break. Zach Lowe made chicken for his daughter. I don't know what House did. House just disappeared. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. He disappeared for a while and came back. I don't even want to speculate. Caffeine. Is that what it was? Wardrobe change. Stimulants. So we started with the West with part one, which I was way less excited about than the East. The East includes the Boston Celtics, my favorite team, the New York Knicks, the champions of the world, Joe House's Wizards. Yeah. Which perennially when we do this, they're always the last team. God damn it. In the over-unders because they always have the worst over-under and they're stupid wherever the division is. The East flags fly forever. We're going to start with the champs. The Knicks over-under is 51 and a half on FanDuel. Division plus 180. Conference plus 270. Title 10 to 1. One seed plus 360. Can I stop you for one second? Yeah. I just want to get comfortable. It's a little, still a little warm in here. I just want to make sure that I'm ready for the, I mean, I want to settle in for the East. We're going to be here for a while. Let me get comfortable. Oh boy. Oh boy. Let's keep it PG-13 here, please. Oh, oh my God. Okay. Wow. I mean, I thought you were going to break out the eat a fat big dick, beat a big fat dick. They haven't said that to me yet. They haven't said it to me. I'm waiting on that one. I was so excited. I thought you had a sweatshirt. If we're going to do, if we're going to do the East. A Trey Young t-shirt jersey. That's coming. I have that too. Listen, I was on a JetBlue flight on Saturday. Watching Celtics Sixers preseason. Pretty sure I was the only one on the plane with that one dialed up. Which one? The Celtics Sixers preseason game on Saturday night. Multiple moments where I was like, man, Paul George just looks great. He's moving so well. Hugo, four from three, baby. Yeah. Thank God we traded Hugo. Then Tatum's out there with Paul George together. And I'm just like, man, look at those two. How well they're moving together. All right. The next, let's do it. 51 and a half. Last year, there are 53 and 29. I went 16 and three in the playoffs. Last three years, there are 53, 51 and 50. Before I get to the big question, the year after the life-changing title for a fan base, which doesn't happen very often. 2005 Red Sox lost the ALDS. 2017 Cubs lost the NLCS. 2017 Cavs lost in five in the finals and should have lost in four. But game four is, was still one of the most suspiciously officiated games of this, of this century. And then the 1995 Rangers lost in round two. There was a lockout. So that's recent history of life-changing titles. Usually the team doesn't win again. First team champ sack logo. One of three ways. They jump a level and become scarier. That was the 91 bulls. They, the title took so much out of them. They're a little more banged up the next year. I think that might be like the 2009 Celtics. Before they had the disease of more everyone's sacrifice for the title. Guys put their egos aside. A selflessness permeated the group. Everyone elevated each other, gave up stats, gave up numbers, gave up things. And then the next year happens and everybody goes, what about me? What about my minutes? What about my shots? What about my extension? If you had to guess one of those three things for the next, what would you guess? I'm going, D none of the above. They're just going to be just fine. Like close. I guess the closest would be one where they go up a level, but I don't really see them going up a level and they can't go up a level from what they did in the playoffs. But I don't think despite all the extension stuff, I think all those guys are pros. I think there'll be fine and they'll play professionally. And I don't see any kind of remember what's a scenario. Number two was the hangover. They get worse. A little more banged up. Like it took a lot out of them physically. Oh, that was, I mean, they, they got out of the playoff. It was pretty unscathed. They didn't have to play that many games. A lot of their games were blowouts. Like, so I'm going to go closest to a, but really D like this team's just going to be fine. House. I totally agree. I think that, I mean, there are a tiny bit worse and we'll talk about the rosters and so forth, but they're, they're, this is a built for the post-season basketball team. There may yet be a move for them to fortify the front court. Cause I'm not sure how much they're in love with Andre Drummond, but they're fine. Is he in the fall out of love? First team, all-stars Andre Drummond teams have fallen out of love with him a few times. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. I think that's, I think no one, no one loves him anymore. People just tolerate him. I'm leaning a little toward disease of more, but I want to see how the first couple of months play out. Just a little bit. I think town specifically with the extension. And I heard what you said yesterday to Mahoney, Zach, about the, would you say four years, 200, basically 50 a year. That that's, that's reportedly, I can't confirm that, but that's reportedly the offer. That's fair. By the way, the reason they traded for towns was because he made so much money. Minnesota was freaked out by the contract. And that was why they're able to, you know, give up what they gave up for him because people thought he was too expensive. He was on our worst contracts list multiple times. Yeah. But then he came in to the next situation and was worth the money. The problem. Is if they don't finish this before the season, they're in there and real a real issue here because it basically, that it carries out and then he has the player option and there's going to be teams that have cap space that are pretty excited. Like I'm looking at a team like Charlotte, for example, which I think, I don't know what their cap space situation will be, but they have a lot of expiring stuff. We'll see what the Miller extension is, but there's teams like that that could make a couple of moves and all of a sudden say, yeah, we'll take Carl Anthony towns for, for 55 a year for four years. I think he's going to age pretty well because of his, you know, his game. But I'm watching that one. And also, you know, everything went right in the playoffs last year, Brunson became more famous. There's just in general, a bigger spotlight on this team. This team is famous now, which leads to my question. The big question is Jalen Brunson as crazy as this sounds now, the NBA signature star. I know. I don't think so. I mean, I not in a world where Victor, when Bama is this seven, six curiosity, who's the most dominant defensive force we've ever seen. And he's only 22 or 23 or whatever he is. I don't think so, but he's not, he's not far from it. And I was thinking the SNL thing, which we've talked about how many guys realistically could have hosted SNL that are in the NBA right now, other than LeBron and Wimby Curry Curry. There's three. Like, I don't, does Luca get that? I don't think he does. No, Anthony Edwards. I don't think he's not famous. I think he will. He's not famous. The Lakers. If the Lakers win the championship, Luca would get that. I'm just saying right now, like, I don't think Jason Tatum is famous enough. Donovan Mitchell going down the line, but Brunson, I just think is massively famous though. And it would struck me like, cause we were always talking about, Oh my God, the international guys, who's going to be the American who's going to be faced the league, all that crap. And then in, in a year it got solved. Jalen Brunson is the most famous American basketball star that we have. Uh, I would say he's in the running for most popular because of how big the Knicks fan base is. He's respected. Incredibly fun to watch. I think he has at least a couple of good years left. We'll see, you know, small guards, how it aged, but, um, it struck me thinking big picture about this league. He's the best clutch guy in the league too. Just big picture. Like fuck Jalen Brunson beyond the title and all that other stuff. Like he's got the big piece of chicken. chicken at the dinner table now. Deserves to. deserves it what were the odds of that in 2021 i'm gonna say like 300 to 1 a thousand to one the whole thing is a long shot jalen brunson becoming the top seven player in the nba whatever you think his floor is i mean people want to say top five it's hard to crack the top five you want to put him in there for what he just did i can't really argue that much against you um and then hosting saturday night live like season premiere of saturday night live unbelievable like truly this is like derrick jeter level famous all of a sudden we'll see how many years he can stay at this level and we'll see how many years in general for the next because my whole half half decade rule with contenders i think this is a three-year contender run for them now usually means they have two left from changes from last year they lose mitchell robinson which is not insignificant replace them with drum and we'll see how that goes they got bruce brown i may slide under on this 51 and a half just because of the pattern that this team has had in recent years and i think it's going to be a lot of fun and regular seasons in the past of yeah there's a malaise ah they didn't show up oh they're playing well again oh now they're not and just being up and down and i don't think they're going to really care about the regular season either i don't think they met i don't think they ultimately care if they're one two three or four um i think they just want all their guys healthy they're not going to have the tanking teams this year to beef the record up against and i think it's somewhere between like 48 and 50 would be where i land on them so i'm a i'm a mild and apologetic under because i still think they're the favorites of these what do you have zach i'm right there with you uh very very slight and unwilling under you nailed a lot of the uh a lot of the issues possible championship hangover fine they deserve a championship hangover um and i also um you know the east is really really strong top to bottom they had great health last season and in general just like i i had a hard time with the east because there are so many good teams in the east yeah and you can't as i was going over overs and unders and win totals like i've got a i had to pick a couple of top tier east teams to go under on because i think there's just going to be a huge scrunching of all these teams sort of close together so you know just 53 wins last year i could see 50 49 on the low end this year so slight under you have 52 games in the east house yeah and you're gonna have 44 of those games or 44 games in the east house yeah and you're gonna have 44 of those games or 44 of those games are going to be against teams that actually give a shit and then there's brooklyn and milwaukee i do want to point out knicks were incredible at home last season 37 and 12 straight up at home the new york including playoffs uh yes because they wanted to show everybody you know when the when the fans come to their stadium right this is what what we're we're going to give you the treat that you deserve a lot of those were those comebacks those giant knicks comebacks that became the hallmark um and i don't know just basic regression i think says that you're not gonna have that i'm an under um i like this better when it was 52 and a half i thought one of us would go over but well they've won 53 last year that's the right kind of number for them and they got 53 like right at the end of the season and so i like this when it was 52 and a half and then i played a 52 that's good but i'll go ahead and go under i don't mind 51 is not disrespectful i think they win 50 or 51 games there's a bullseye thing with them too now where every time they play anyone it's the most important game of the month for that team right you play like they play pick anyone the calves the sixers the celtics like oh shit we're playing the knicks we got to bring it tonight so i it's just a lot and this team over the course of a regular season has just been a little too erratic but that's fine because all that matters is the playoffs to to be clear because we all went under i will pick the knicks to make the finals so i think they're the best team in the conference by just going slight under on their regular season win total they need their guys to be healthy come april and we've seen them you know different guys have taken different months off um regular season wise before and they have to solve this backup center thing it's not going to be andre drummond as the solution i am between them and one other team for the finals and i'm not making the decision until tuesday next week boston celtics over under 51 and a half same as the knicks division plus 210 conference five to one title 14 to one last year there are 56 and 26 and i'll ask this question to house since he's wearing the t-shirt what if the jace the uh jalen trade turns out to be a home run for the celtics well what if we're like holy shit what a smart trade in like march leading leading the witness just to where you want him to go just what if it's the the words start with what if so i don't think that the trade is going to be a home run what is going to work out for the celtics is the arrival of mitchell robinson and what impact that has specifically on one player that becomes a version of himself that was disappointing on the offensive end and that's derrick white i think the additional possessions that the celtics are going to get without really understanding i think he's capable of but like taking those extra possessions and putting them into the missoula combobulator and letting that sort of you know radiate out it's going to be they're going to be an incredible regular season team the question marks i have the skepticism i have the reason that i wouldn't endorse the trade is because come playoff time let's see what this looks like let's see what this looks like let's see what this looks like let's see what this looks like let's see what either the knicks or the sixers come playoff time i have no notes i thought you laid it out perfectly i will say for the regular season watching them in the preseason they're deep tatum looks great paul george who they really only need 50 games from and they have these other young guys that they can just kind of move in and out depending on the game they're very kind of schedule flexible with their lineups they could be like oh tonight's a ron harper game hey hugo's gonna play 30 tonight they're going to be like oh tonight's a ron harper game hey hugo's gonna play 30 tonight oh we got some sherman and by the way sherman looks great it looks like he added like 10 pounds of muscle so i think they're looking at tatum's basically replacing brown from last year and then this george hugo shireman a little ron harper um and then more peyton pritchard shots and i just think they can replace all the jalen offense so then it comes down to style stuff and again it's preseason but we've all been watching preseason because it seems like people that the players and the teams actually care because the preseason is sort of short they were doing some really interesting stuff with paul george as point forward that um felt a little different than and i'm not gonna bash jalen i love jalen but it felt a little different than when jalen was the point forward where it almost felt like paul george was like a giant point guard running the offense and trying to find stuff and they just had a lot of size and i thought it was a good use of him the team chemistry seems great everybody seems really happy and i don't think they're gonna have minutes issues or anything i think they're gonna have minutes issues or anything i think they're gonna have minutes issues i think they're gonna be a really good regular season team and i don't know what that means for the playoffs but for regular season i think they're gonna be in the mid 50s zach who says no um hugo gonzalez for kevin durant and the nets pick unprotected bill what else can i get uh i thought the over-under was 50 and a half by the way it went up i texted you yesterday oh the two over-unders that went up or down was minnesota went down to 46 and a half and boston went up another one there's been some boston action i'm still i'm still taking the over i took it at 50 and a half i'll take it at 51 and a half regular season wins machine uh little health issues with paul george and mitchell robinson that make me slightly nervous i don't think it's a no-brainer but i'll take the over it's interesting with mitchell robinson let's say you know he's gonna go out for six weeks they do have garza who you know played big minutes for them last year and they won with you know i'm not i'm not saying they're not going to win but they're going to win regular season the greatest for regular season you can plug him in and it's not not a disaster um the mike conley thing has been interesting they just love him i mean everywhere mike it's unclear why mike conley just doesn't run for president maybe he should run in 2032 everywhere he goes people just love him and follow him like the uh the pied piper but him and paul george like couple vets which is good they took care of the pritchard thing with at least an extension for one year and they're going to run for president maybe he should run in 2032 you know you mentioned the derrick white thing before i think part of the reason for that is teams the whole season were basically like jaylen go nuts we're going to guard you one-on-one and we're going to stay with the other shooters and if you beat us you beat us and he to his credit was awesome and did it but i don't think white had the same kind of shots that he's going to get this year and i think he's actually going to go up you don't agree with that it's already happening like it starts phase one is colonoscopy despair phase two is colonoscopy despair and then phase three is colonoscopy despair and then phase four phase two is i think i'm talking myself into the trade phase three is i've now talked myself yeah that was august phase four which officially began today is prefacing a sentence with i'm not bashing jaylen brown i won't do that but we're good we're good we're getting to the final phase which is the turn to the dark side and i i think i'm made thanksgiving maybe i'll never do it i love jaylen brown okay good like wait wait till the end of march wait We told this team, know has 59 wins is the clear one seed in the in the east and you know that the celtics nation this we just went through this celtics nation had and philly starts bad and the celtics are good and and this this this set of expectations around this celtics team when tatum came back you know all of a sudden and the the you know hoops commentariat was guilty of this as well all of the talking chattering class like well the celtics with tatum back let's go ahead and maybe put them in pencil the second best odds in the finals i i understand that it was not um well founded so we'll see the mitchell robertson thing is is important he's won over my dad my dad for his entire life has loved people who just get rebounds he was just raving about how giant he is and he just you know he knew it because we used to go against him with the knicks and but he's just like this guy's so basically they turned jalen brown into paul george and mitchell robinson but they also have full tatum back and they won 56 games last year in a conference where you know he had nine tanking teams out of the 30 so i i feel like it's in 54 to 56 for me this is i hate to do it but i think it's a lock i don't think you hate to do it just for the record i love i think you love to do it i do love to do it i think this is a lock i missoula has proven that day-to-day week-to-week he macgyvers the regular season and it's like oh i guess it's a ron harper game tonight and they're winning in cleveland by eight in the fourth quarter this is what they do so three overs all right oh i made the lock as well oh okay for the avoidance i'm just i'm not gonna lock just out of spite i'm not getting the uni lock no way no lie the uh the questions would be paul george how many games how many games for mitch robinson and then obviously tatum and what kind of minutes can they put on tatum he looked absolutely spectacular in the preseason game i watch but can he go back to being a 32 minutes 72 to 75 games guy okay buckle where's my camera i'm gonna go to my solo camel camera buckle the fuck up because we're about to talk about the philadelphia 76ers 49 and a half is the over under division plus 250 conference plus 410 title 10 to 1 playoffs minus 550 play in house plus 280 no thank you you didn't stare at that one for a second no seem to be a seven seed i do want to be on record i bet the celtics to win the division at plus 210 okay like that price better than two to one their 2027 first goes to brooklyn but it is top a protected they were 45 and 37 last year they have added jaylen brown lebron james anthony simons lebron philand dean waiting and contavious caldwell pope they lost paul george kelly rubray quentin grahams kelly and uh kelly rubray i put it second time because apparently that was a huge loss the big question zach low yeah how will the 76ers handle scrutiny adversity and anything else ending in ity as this season goes along that includes unity uh unity another ity unity uh nudity anything with they handle all the itys this year look lebron has seen it all joelle has seen it all and been the butt of it all i jaylen brown has been a finals mvp he's just gotten traded in the most high profile sort of um like what trade in a while i don't think much is going to phase them now i you know if they're eight and ten after 18 games it's going to be a little crazy but i also think reflected in this line there's a certain expectation that like we're just not going to see the starting five together all that many games it's going to be a little clunky at first i think for whatever reason well for all the reasons people are giving this team a little bit of grace compared to a lot of past super teams lebron is almost 42 years old so i don't worry about that i really don't it's going to be a circus but it's not going to be like the heat in 2010 like lebron bumping spo on the way to the bench is it all in the sky falling this is a failure blah blah blah that one thing with the imbeed was late to a practice mike breen the nicest guy alive somehow has to apologize steven a style for having the wrong information which i'm not sure he had the wrong information uh-oh um house we haven't talked about this on a pod i don't think what is your biggest concern with the sixers other than joe limby playing 35 games they don't have a uh backup center it's it's it's it's bona right now is it's bona do you think of this sixers team as basically a team that's going to play in you divide the season up into thirds because it doesn't make any sense for lebron or imbeed to be you know playing many more than 50 games each i mean and imbeed 40 seems fine to me but i do believe that the majority of nights we will see maxi and edgecomb and jalen brown and that solves you know a lot of what you hear people say is there the how do we share the ball how do we you know all those kinds of things and i think they'll experiment over the course of the season so you feel like those three guys for 68 to 72 games each yes you know you have that yep and then at different points in time they'll bring in lebron and imbeed for stretches uh and i think they're going to be very targeted about it i haven't sat down with their schedule to say oh this is the point where they should try here's the 10 game stretch where we're going to experiment but i think that they will break the season and they're going to be very targeted about it i haven't sat down with their schedule to say oh this is the point where they should try here's the 10 game stretch where we're going to experiment but i think that they will break the season basically up into thirds and say you know we have this runway we have all this depth we have high level talent we won 45 games last year we can be in the top four if we can get to 50 the number is perfect at 49 and a half i think 50 is a reasonable goal for this team and you know i we have proof of concept that uh maxi as the facilitator and and edgecomb that works so let's layer in jalen brown we'll those three guys like playing together i kind of think they will so i think dean wade's super underrated what he's going to bring to the table for this team so basically their bench of simons dean wade kcp bona by default little barlow i still like filon i still feel like he's going to be heard from you know obviously i've been following this league my whole life and we've seen situations like this before where you have teams with a lot of famous players and they're famous players and accomplished players and you know i think that 08 celtics is probably the best version of how this all plays out where you have guys who are at specific points of their career who are all good on their own but it reached a point where they wanted to sacrifice for the greater good i get really nervous when you have teams where i'm not sure guys are at the right points of their career for a team like this and that's what i've been thinking about all summer as i'm trying to figure out how scared i am of the sixers you have imbeed who breaks down every year who has never really proven that he can be a guy who can play four rounds in the playoffs who has all of his own stuff to prove he is not kevin garnett in 2008 saying i've done everything i can i'll give up my five to six shots this is the last thing my last hurdle i think imbeed's trying to still prove i'm one of the best players in the league i can play all the time he's not at that sacrifice point yet lebron every time he's been asked to really sacrifice it always feels like it's begrudgingly and we always have to hear about it from a bunch of different reporters like how no it's true it's like oh man we it's just unbelievable what lebron's doing he's all about winning like we always have to hear the dialogue in real time about it jaylen is the one that really worries me with this because jaylen went from being the guy to now being the supporting man for the movie that he gets a couple scenes with matt damon and he gets a couple scenes with dicaprio but he's like basically the alec baldwin part just set some picks we might need you some night we're not going to go to the end of the game stand over there i don't know how he's going to handle that maxi who still hasn't proven he's a top seven eight guy who can carry a team and is right at the point of his career where he would love to do that now has to worry about all this other stuff and then you have edgecombe in year two who's trying to prove that he's a real guy in the league and i think he will be and i like him but it's just all that stuff worries me when kind of nobody's at the right point of their career for a team like this and i can't get past it was that a long prelude to an emphatic under i'm going i'm going under i am i have them in the mid 40s zag i say i thought it was gonna i thought i was waiting for all that said no i'm going under i think they're in the 40 three to 45 range and i don't think they're really going to care that much lock it up then 43 wins that's crazy i think they're i think the east is really good i think they're gonna have stretches where they go like three and seven and ten games and everybody's writing about what's wrong with the sixers and i would not want to see them in a playoff series period so please don't we're talking regular season only i think it's going to be up and down with swings and a lot of coverage and i think once there's blood in the water we've seen how the media and the blogosphere and the podcast all react to it um the moment something's unhappy we're going to blow it up the moment Somebody has a quote somewhere the moment somebody's official media spokesman on whatever podcast or show talks about how something's unhappy and everyone's going to blow that out. And it's just going to be we saw this with the heat in 2011. I think it's going to be like that. So and then it'll get to the playoffs and it might be fine, but I think it's going to be up and down. So I am under where you, Zach, the fully actualized version of this team is the biggest threat to the Knicks in the playoffs. No question. I don't know that we'll ever see the fully actualized version of this team because of all the health issues. But even like the version where Embiid is semi healthy and able to be load managed through part of the playoffs, I think is still among, if not the most dangerous threat to the Knicks. I just regular season. I think if I'm Philly, my goal is I don't care where I am as long as I'm in the top six. If I'm in the top six, I'm in. I don't have to exert myself in a play in game or two. You get in, I get a week off or whatever it is. I think that's hugely important to them. I am going a little bit under 47 ish wins is fine for me. I just think 50. I think there are just too many moving parts, but I, I don't worry about the one ball problem. I'm not worried as much, nearly as much as you are about the drama and the anonymous. You know, this guy was late. This guy said this in a film session. Maybe that comes out. Maybe it won't happen. I mean, remember, it happened when Embiid was. He was called out in a film session for being late. And I think he lashed out or like, I'm going to, we can't have this coming out of our locker room. Maybe they got it out of their system, but I'm going a slight under only because also similar to the Western Conference. I have a lot of like overs in the meat of the Eastern Conference and I need to have an under at the top. So that's the Knicks. And now it's the Sixers. So where I looked at my notes, I wrote them down for 45 wins. So you had them at 47. So we're two apart. Where are you house? I have them winning 50 games. So I have them as, as an over, uh, and I don't think that they're, they end the game stuff. Like what you're describing in terms of your concerns around Jalen Brown, they are going to feed him. I think Maxie, Maxie is bumping up against that top eight or 10. Remember the conversation we were having about Maxie through the first like 40 games, 50 games of the season last season where everybody was skeptical of, of the Sixers and Maxie's like, fuck that. I'm don't be skeptical of anything. Now he did lead the league in minutes. Nick nurse does ride his horses, but here's the thing. Jalen Brown will help that Maxie doesn't have to Jalen Brown wants to play. He'll play 2,700 minutes if you put them out there. And the good thing is, you know, some of the sort of concern I've seen in the run-up to the season around how will this work is will it impair edge combs development? Well, I don't think him playing with Brown and Maxie is going to impair his development. And I think under the tutelage of, of LeBron, you know, when he's on the floor with those guys, LeBron at this stage of his career, he's, he's brand new to the league and he gets to play in a circus. So there, there's something. Can I talk to you after the game? I can't, I'm flying on my helicopter. 10 Oh one. I'll talk to you tomorrow. I think edge comb is going to develop just fine. I think the Sixers team top four in the East. So they get home court in the first round. Not that it matters, but that's where I have them. I think the end of the game stuff is going to be an actual thing. If it beats out there, you have to give them the ball. I mean, maybe there's been. Times in the preseason, the one game he played where he was in the corner here and there, they'll just have to mix it up. That's basketball. That's what happens when you get a lot of good players on your team. I think honestly, like a team that's trying to win the championship this year. And that's what the Sixers are doing. Whether you believe in it or not should not have VJ edge comb in the role that he would have on a bad team in his second year. That's, that's not, that's not a realistic thing. And the edge comb, the, the pause I had going under was despite LeBron being 42, we know MB is going to miss games edge. He's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games. He's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games. He's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games and he's going to miss a lot of games. We're going to fall in love with them in 10 games. comes in and swings the court so maybe they have enough depth i think it's just it was a little mucky on offense last year kawai should be a salve for all of that um i just think it's more the east is really good uh i i'm sure the line is factoring in that kawai plays 50 games or 55 games and what do they do when they don't have him and you know 22 and 30 against 500 and above teams last year 24 and 6 against the rest you know it's just i wouldn't get too ahead of my skis yeah on them as like a regular season juggernaut but i will take the over on this line well i was going to play because he's not going to have to hold his availability hostage to get more payments well not knowing about what he's getting paid i mean here's the concern with kawai he did it last year that was an incredible full season incredible season that he had last year yeah when's the last time he did it two consecutive years that that's my issue 2011 draft year 16 yeah this is my issue i used up all of the the the juvenation juice last season and it was a waste i really wanted to zag and go raptors under but man the murray boils and barnes and kawai out there together at the end of games just sounds like a fucking nightmare look out it really does i also think barrett is a pretty interesting trade piece for them if that's somebody that isn't going to um maybe be there long term and maybe they've moved their money in a specific direction they still have the ability to flip him for something whether they want more shooting whether they want to roll the dice with like a more expensive center who knows so there's two things to say as i look at this number first of all it's kawai leonard replacing brandon ingram it sounds great they won 46 games last year and murray boils year two why is this number 46 and a half because of kawai's availability and the east is really and it just stayed right there because people don't know how to price it people don't know how to price it like i'm taking the over i'm not making it a lock but here's the other thing i flirted i flirted with lock i flirted with lock and i had to talk because i think this is going to be a really good regular season team yeah my kawaii sustainability concerns uh are more about playoff like survival and sustainability every other day yeah but i had to i had i'm not locking it i had to sort of walk myself back from like lock status they were 2 and 22 against the top six teams in the west and the top three teams house and i were going crazy last year because we had the under for the raptors and they were driving us crazy somehow they hit the over anyway because they beat the hell out of out of bad team they ended up with an above 500 record against the above 500 teams but against the top upper echelon this top six teams in the west and the top three in the east 2 and 22 they didn't have kawaii leonard and they had brandon ingram apparently playing on a partially torn achilles tendon for a lot of that that's the answer that's what you have to come up with it's an under for me i think they're going to win exactly 46 games again zach is there any way they could turn barrett and something else in the kairi if dallas is kind of punting on this year and doing one more tenure sure i you know you got to sweeten it with probably a pick at two picks i don't know how many picks and other other stuff swaps um barrett's a really interesting player because i i simultaneously think he's become underrated and i i agree that i wouldn't be shocked if they trade him i wouldn't be shocked if they decide they're better with him as a sixth man and jacoby walter starting although i don't think that they would really have the institutional fortitude to make that move but he was their leading scorer in the playoffs i think and he's kind of their most reliable basket he was he he's become he's become a pretty good three-point shooter his defense hasn't come along as much as they had hoped but he's like a really good all he does a little bit of everything and somehow that the jack of all trades master of nothing leaves you sometimes wanting more but sometimes i think you have to look at him and be like i'm pretty satisfied this guy's like 25 and five that's pretty good player i'm not just willy-nilly throwing him into trades yeah i wonder for an extension he's probably in the 23 to 25 year range with a lot of the other guys we mentioned in part one but if he thinks he's getting more than that he's not staying for the record i had toronto over last year and i never sweated it for one second no i had the under with somebody i had a wonderful over with what do you have because it was in the mid-30s under 46 and a half because i think they're going to win 46 games again this year slight under for it house i didn't say it i think this team's going to be kind of a nightmare when they have all their dudes together this is one of those on the schedule where if you're whoever you're like ah fuck i got kawaii murray boils barnes and that fucking graves guy and i gotta deal with all of this jersey yet love graves you're gonna love them i'm telling you i didn't like him in the draft but i i watched him for a half in summer league and i was like this guy's amazing the phil simmons experience he is he does your favorite thing zach low the um rope a dope the across half court pass where it seems like he's running back but he's not and then he just jumps and takes it one of your fans turn out quickest you turn on a rookie ever uh from i hated him in summer league to i'm now so high on him that he's going to be your favorite player yeah i think i think he's gonna be good it's gonna be hilarious when he's in the g league all year all right last but not least oh no last but least last and least the brooklyn nets i'm not even reading the odds they were 20 and 62 last year last 30 they were 5 and 25 and good news they don't have their first round pick houston gets to swap with them their over under is 24 and a half and my big question house could brooklyn execute the first ever zombie tank what's a zombie tank it's how i think at team will handle not having a 2027 first rounder where you want to be in the bottom three because you don't want your owner being like what the fuck why did we end up in the four to ten and we just gave them the first pick in the draft why did we do that we're gonna be in that bottom three right um the question for me they did this with the when the celtics had their picks and they just treated the pick like a sunk cost and they didn't really care what happened and it was to the and then there was another year where they did care and they were posting a brook lopez for a month straight as my dad was going nuts will it be more the sunk cost version or will they do what the pelicans did last year we're like we don't have our pick let's just go for it what would you do if you ran the nets you mean the pelicans went for it last year and still only won 26 games they were 10 and 20 in their last 30 they were like trying to win but what would you do if you're the knicks is that you don't care this is my favorite team the two ball nets they can't wait to give out two they have two balls in fact i might put two balls like the nets logo with with some danglers the same balls that's what they're going to be it's exactly right it's the two balls nest you think this is a whoever's dribbling over half court gets to shoot a thousand percent can we bring tyreek evans out of retirement to play for this team i read a summary that said that they're rebuilding they're they're done with the tank phase and now they're in the like the rebuilding they've turned the corner i'm like look at this roster what the fuck corner did they turn i building the building i what what's the right word zach rebuilding they're still rebuilding still rebuilding i think you guys are being mean you're being mean okay yagor joelman is going to be really good i think okay i i like him i like him too settle down then i like mikhail brown jr i think those guys will be an interesting back like him for the 22 games he plays this year good julius randall and michael porter jr are legit nba good like low-end borderline all-star kind of players the line is 24 and a half it actually listen now look this was a tough the east was really tough for me because all the logic would say that because of the lottery odds being the way they are you should look askance at like really low lines and take the over on them and yet i looked at brooklyn and a couple other teams and i was like well a you're outlining the incentive correctly they actually don't care if they're relegated it might actually be better for their pick to be relegated uh and so i i i don't think they care um and i i think the opposite also applies is that with everyone else trying harder there are just no easy games for a team that's not very good yeah and so that that could apply the other way i also think that um look jordy fernandez will have him playing super hard he's a really good coach all of that on paper this should be an over but given everything i just said and the fact that part of rebuilding is i think michael porter jr is sitting there eligible for an extension the other piece yes is did they feel like a potential sell team so i'm actually going under on 24 and a half despite the logic being all the win totals would be scrunched toward the hard under and that's one of the big reasons is i don't think porter jr is on this team in february zach is that an ethical under because you were nice about it and simmons and i were unethical under because we were so mean i guess i guess it's ethical in the sense that i think if this team played balls out all year long and didn't and played their young players and their veterans and all that they would win more than 24 and a half they would win 25 or more games okay they still might um but i'm going under fine zach runs into people work for the nets like when he goes to a nets game or next game and tries that, you know, he's like, he does not happy guy. Don't send me a text, Sean Marks. That's what, no. And they, and they go, why does Simmons hate us so much? What's why, what does he have against us? I don't have anything against the Nets. I just think they're stupid. I think they run the team terribly. That's what I have against the Nets incompetence. They do dumb shit. And by the way, if Ishbia hadn't thrown them the all time lifeline of an unhappy superstar on a big contract who wanted to get the fuck out of there and was picking his team, AKA Giannis last summer. And all Phoenix had to do is wait it out. Instead. Phoenix was like, here's everything. Take it all. If that hadn't happened, this team would be a fucking catastrophe. By the way, they should take a Darius a cuff in the draft. I'll say it. They should. But, but it did happen. And then they even flipped the Bonanza for even more with the McHale Bridges trade, which is worked out fine for both teams. And so now it's, now it's time to turn those things into things. And that's why the, the Brown pick is, is going to be such a bunch of first rounders from a team that's going to win 50 to 55 games every year. The five first rounders, the Knicks had a three-year window and that's it. We're already in year two of it. And you're in your telling, and those picks are like further out than that. The Nets fans are gone. This is, when they, when you're watching those movies where they have the makeshift business and an office that everybody can clear out in 40 minutes and then the fed show up and nothing's gone. And there's just, you see the computer wires and you're like, there was definitely an office here. That's the Nets fans. They're gone. The Knicks ended the Nets and guess who else ended them? The Liberty. You go to Barclays for a Liberty game and it's a hundred times more urgent than the Nets. The Nets are done. It's over. They need to move. The office you're describing was already. Firmly in work from home four days a week. Like there wasn't, there wasn't that much to take out of the office, but you're correct about, they really did lose an entire generation. Whatever, whatever chance they had at a, at the young generation, 12 and under fans is gone. They're all Knicks fans forever. They have lost the city. It's a wrap. They're not getting it back. It will never get it back. And people will go to Barclays to see the other teams. And that's their destiny. They're basically the Clippers in the two thousands. You have nothing else to say house. I agree with all of that. It's a, it's a triple under I took under. Yeah. Okay. I will say I like a couple of the Nets. Good. I enjoy clowny. I think he can have a moment on a real team. I have, I have a, a small whiff of tray or a stock. There's something there. I don't know what he's like 15 years old. And, uh, and I'd like Josh, why not? And he was on the Celtics. I still feel like I haven't given up on him either on a bad team. There might be something I'm going to go to sleep tonight and it like two in the morning, I'm going to wake up and I'm going to just start screaming. I enjoy clowny. I enjoy clowny. I enjoy clown. Wait a second. What's wrong with clowny? No, he's fine. It's just the most random player to enjoy that I could possibly imagine. I just never thought I would hear you say the words. I enjoy clowny. They lost Nick Claxton, who I think hasn't been good in at least two years. He had a cup of coffee, but that's better. I think this is one of the worst rebuilds in recent history. I'm just in awe of how bad it is. They tanked the last two seasons and ended up with two rookies that I'm not even sure we'll ever make an all-star team. The five first round picks in 2025 will be an all-timer. I think gentleman's going to be good. I mean, okay. Maybe I'll play at my flag and scoop up. And they fell to what? What is he? The eighth pick or something? I mean, they fell like Jordan Frieden has won too many games. And so they didn't get where they wanted to go. And you know, it's not like they picked Anthony Bennett or something with the number one pick. They had a mid first round mid lottery pick. And I think he's going to be pretty good. Could they go back to New Jersey? That ship has sailed swamp dragons, baby. New Jersey's red hot right now. Netflix is moving there. Real estate's on fire. People like Jersey. Maybe they need a stadium. Would you? I'd rather have, could they move Barclays? Like when people move their houses to a different location is Barclays too big to do that. Can they just move it? They have the hockey stadium. They can't play in Prudential where they play hockey. I would think about it. Just make the Barclays, the Liberty stadium. What are we going to say, Zach? Uh, just, uh, the, the, like the three picks right after Joe man, Murray boils, Malawatch coward. I think you'd still, as much as my optimism exists for Joe man, I think you'd still say. I want Murray boils and coward over him long-term for sure. Oh really? Malawatch. No. Um, yeah, I would much rather have coward and Murray boils. Okay. Well, that was a rollicking first division for us. It's all downhill from here. We're going to take a break and then we have the, uh, the central coming up next. The bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We're trying to figure out what we actually believe about this NBA season. Who's winning the title. Who's going over. Who's going under. What predictions are we going to regret by February? I'm sure there's going to be a few. FanDuel has a reward stack built exactly for all this stuff. You get a stack of rewards to use on NBA futures. So while we're sitting here talking to ourselves and the teams for the rest of the shows, you can make your future picks alongside us on FanDuel, or you can go against us. 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The central division is here. We're going to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their over under is 40 and a half plus 125 for the division. Nine to one for the conference. 25 to one for the title. They do not have their pick. They're plus 750 for the one seed. They were 52 and 30 last year. The big question. Zach, if you can't win a title with James Harden, which I think we've proven, why would you then double down on two more years of James Harden? Back into that contract is going to hurt. I would just say what front end in the middle end. He was good in a preseason game this week and people were like, James Harden still cooking. Of course. He was. It was the preseason. What's going to happen when he has to play defense in a conference finals game? We saw it four months ago. This podcast is about 48 and a half regular season. It is. It's a great point. What were my alternatives? Like I, they, I, they, the Garland trade, I was surprised that they just sort of gave up on Garland and it was obviously a huge win now move. I thought, you know, it made some sense to them. I don't know what else they could have done this summer. They tried to get LeBron. He didn't come. Uh, and so what, with no cap flexibility, I mean, they had to like shed a gazillion salaries to get Peyton Watson, which is a worthy game. What else happened? Kenny Atkinson. I don't know if you saw this analytically. He thought they won the summer. All right. Okay. What else are you going to say about the calves? No, I look, I, I'm not, I don't trust the calves in the playoffs to be clear. Like I am Fox Mulder on all these Eastern conference teams. I don't trust them. I don't trust James Harden in a big game. Not exactly a scorcher of it. I don't trust James year of our basketball guides 2026 but i do trust them to win regular season games i just think they're too talented in the starting five uh and the first three or four guys they have coming off the bench i have a lot of faith in and i i'm going over and i will make it a lock wow that is so strong okay love that strong take really like it okay i have a two questions for house you were a big peyton watson fan because my question was what if they were wrong about peyton watson because this was the all-in special they have no capital no assets no cap space if this doesn't work out with what they just built the next move is to trade evan mobley yep because now you need to settle down juice whatever is in that white cup like fill it up i'm just saying we're out of moves if it's like shit we need to make a move we are now in evan mobley is the move because that's there's a lot of people that are out there that are out there that are out there that are out there's no moves left no i mean you just got a huge extension is going to be i don't think people are lining i don't think people are lining up for that jared you're trading carl towns to the hornets and evan mobley around the league set up poor glass i'm just saying if it doesn't work out this year and the trade game blame game starts getting played not a lot of options all right but you like peyton watson i do i think that he is exactly what this team needed i i was glad to see you know they they really battled i think that the seasoning of their very tough road through the playoffs yeah it's like extremely valuable that that's the floor raising effect for for mobley i hope because their entire you know, fortunes really reside in what is Mobley ceiling. We kind of keep saying it every season and he kind of does get a little bit better. Uh, and then he goes quiet a little bit. Um, that was my next question for you. Some questions. Go ahead. My next question for you was, is there any kind of leap left for mobile or is this where we are? I think there's still a leap. Has he topped out as an 18 and nine guy? He was 30% from three last year. So the three point that's one shooting barrage has not taken off. Yeah. Four years, $223 million left. And they, as far as we can tell, would not talk about him for Giannis, right? I certainly heard that, that they, that, that they would not, they would not. And they would not talk about it for Jalen Brown either. Seems like they wouldn't. Did you hear others? You heard otherwise? No, no, I don't. I don't. I don't remember. I would get aggravated on NBA rumor net.com. I don't think they did, but I don't remember. I don't, his name. I didn't feel like it was floating around. Peyton Watson thing. I talked about this on my podcast. It's you're really betting on that 19 games. He played when Yoke age wasn't there for most of them. And they had to run the entire offense through him. And I have real questions about how much ball time he's going to get on a team with Mitchell. But are you really betting on that at 22 million a year? Are you betting on that? He's the lockdown defender that you need. It makes enough corner three. And he's going to have to be, but we have a three-year sample size with Denver where he wasn't that right. And then year four flashes of it. He played in year three. He played like 14 minutes a game in the playoffs for Denver. Yeah. He was basically like their 10th band. It was a mistake. Maybe his defense has always been legit. I don't worry about his defense at all. I just need him to see, make sure the shot from the corner in particular is real. I just want to raise my hand. I'm pro Peyton Watson. I just wonder, was that, that's it. You're all in at this point and that's your move and you're not a hundred percent positive. He can be your fifth guy, glue guy guy. So Zach seems more, more convinced on this. Well, I mean the guy you're really all in on that we've barely talked about is Donovan Mitchell, $76.4 million player option in 2031. I mean, that was the real all in move and there's almost, I love Donovan Mitchell more than almost anyone in the media. I'm always higher. I'm him than you guys. When we do all NBA stuff, you, you, you guys, us. Yeah, you guys, you, there's almost no chance that that's a, that's a good contract. And there's like almost a hundred percent chance that it ends up being a, a bad contract at the end. I'll never say anything bad about a Greenwich country day graduate. They lost back streets and Dean Wade and added Peyton Watson feels like a sideways. He had a his own. Yeah. Yeah, baby. People like Thomas that they got in the, the draft. There's some Tomlin stock that's been out. They like Thomas. They like, they like Thomas. He had a big summer league too. I, I was a hard over for the calves. I think they're in the low fifties. Look at that. Great. Lock it up with me. Come on though. Come on the Cleveland lock island over here. You know what else they should be in the, in the low fifties. Cause they're spending about $300 million for this. Like they end every draft pick asset. They've had, they're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. They made it there. You know, you got Donovan Mitchell to a conference. So lock it down. No, I'm just over. I'm just over. Yeah. It's a regular over for three overs, all that rigmarole and everyone's over about 48 and a half, which is not a small number. The funny thing is the market's moving in that, you know, it was 47 and a half for awhile. People are like, Oh, wait a minute. That's a low. I thought the division odd for them, that was going to be a bet I made when I was in Boston last week. And it's just plus one 25. It's like not enough value. I think it is. I wanted that to be in the plus one 50 range. All right. The weirdest over under of the entire two part podcast, the Detroit Pistons, 47 and a half. They're plus one 45 for the division, 27 to one for the title plus eight 50 to be the one seat again. They were 60 and 22 last year. The big question, Zach, a 60 win team kept their top three. All of them are healthy and they're over under drop 12 and a half wins. What in the fuck just happened? That's what happens when Tobias Harris leaves in free agency. Is that it? It's a 12 win Tobias Harris departure. I think the conference got really, really good. The playoffs left odds makers, I guess, unconvinced that this was actually a 60 win team and convinced that it was a little bit of a paper tiger in a tank tastic year where they just racked up wins. Yeah. Against crap teams. And, and, you know, probably, probably, maybe, probably would have lost in the first round of the playoffs. If Franz Wagner didn't get hurt in the middle of that series against Orlando. And then you throw in the jail and during thing, that, which part of the contentious holdout or them telling him he was their fourth best player. I don't believe, where did that come from? Cause I don't, I mean, I, even if you were doing that as a negotiating, I couldn't figure out who the three better than I don't think you would just, I don't picture anyone being like, Hey, Jalen, just FYI, you're our fourth best player and B who's the third best player. It doesn't make any sense, but it made the rounds for two days. It doesn't make any sense. And so I don't believe that that really happened or I, or some like Pistons, mid-level front office guy was like, you know what? I'm sick of this. I'm going to tell you what I really think jail and during, and then, you know, deeper conference, all that the line falls. To where it falls. I am worried. They lost too much toughness house. I love beef stew in this team. I'm not sure what happened. Clearly they felt like it was time to go, but I loved having them. And I thought the combo of him and Durham was great to bias. I w I really enjoyed the Pistons the last couple of years to bias. They went to him all the time. He was Cade backup plan for two straight years and got, I thought pretty good shots in the playoffs. Got good shots. It's something that San Antonio will probably tap into with him. So losing him and, and beef stew. I didn't like that at all. I didn't mind. I've never liked Levert. So that's fine. John Collins. I watched on the Clippers last year and I just don't understand it, but the analytics like them, but, but I test didn't really match it for me. Isaiah Joe. I've always kind of liked, but I can't tell if, you know, coming at like, is he just where he should be? It was like a heat check. Everyone's around then a Corey people like as a guard, but I guess the big thing for them with the over-under to beat this as if Thompson goes up a half level offensively. Right. That would be, they have to have it. That would be the X factor. My question, my big question, who is going to help Cade Cunningham? It's the end of the game. They run every single thing through him. Who's going to catch the ball and make a shot when he's double worse off. I watched John Collins. It's not John Collins. I watched it last year. It's not Durham because it feels like teams unlocked, how to stop him. It's not Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Cole going around screens. He, he wore down as the year went on last year. I have the same concern. I I'm under, I can't believe I'm under, but I'm under, I think this is like a 45 win team. John Collins from three, the last three seasons, 37, 40, 41. That's all I want. I'm not handing the ball to John Collins to be like, go do stuff with the ball. Um, all of these concerns are very legitimate concerns. This is a team that really tried to get Austin Reeves and thought they had a real shot at him down to the wire, didn't get him. That was their cap space bullet. They know what they need. They still have all their picks and a bunch of tradable contracts to go out and get that player. If they want to buy it. I think that's something you have to consider with this number. All of these concerns were preexisting and they won 60 games last year and seven playoff games. You can quibble with how they got there and what happens in the first round of frauds doesn't get hurt. So like none of that is new. I'm going over because I think the floor of, of really good defense, tough rebounding, Cade, and some more shooting around him is just good enough in the regular season to get that many wins. And, uh, and I think we're over-indexing on Duren's failure in the playoffs. Like I think he'll be closer to the guy he was in the regular season in the regular season, which is what this is about. So I have them at 45 because I think the East is so good. I was just basically subtracting four to five wins for a bunch of different teams. Yeah. And to me, this. This is a 50 win team last year that now I have to put it 45, but I really worry about, uh, the scoring beyond Cade. I thought Tobias was really important for them last year. And then the year before our guy Malik Beasley, I know was also important for them. They just had these wild card scores and unless it's Isaiah Joe and I'm missing something, I don't know who the wild card score is for this team. Best record in the league above versus above five hundred teams last year, Oklahoma city, 36 and 16 Spurs, 35 and 15 pistons, 34 and six. Wow. Impressive. They, they kicked ass, um, in a regular season way, you know, that they, I think they had the best record in the NBA on back-to-backs. I think there was something like, uh, 12 and two. And played well without Cade. And this is the regular season. We're talking about the conference being deeper. No question. I, I'm not saying they're going to win 55 games. I'm just going over on 47. I think it's too low. - Yeah, and the number, far because the number was 49 and a half so i'm not sure what happened i don't have an answer to we know what happened fair question that zach asked what between 49 and a half hour three weeks ago and the third thing i think freak people out and he's coming back reading too much into it i think zach's absolutely right we don't need to overdo that or whatever reaction what other reason would there be for the overrunner to go down i don't know people nobody got hurt 48 is a very reasonable number for them i'm taking the the over even though i don't have an answer to the fair question zach pose he puts it in the context of john collins they're not asking john here's the ball go do something with it who is that guy i don't have an answer here's the ball guy that's not kate cunningham go do something with it no answer but they are good enough to win 48 they're hoping it's i mean you guys us with mobley different phases his career but is there another leap there and you just saw jalen brown take a very unusual like late mid-career leap i don't necessarily think there's a like a leap leap for evan mobley i do expect continued like just he gets a little better at this a little better at that and i think part of that process for asara thompson that's the answer is is a little more on ball stuff not like a mega leap where he's suddenly averaging 18 a game like his brother or whatever but like enough of that when kate is on the bench that like that's part of this part of the solution not the whole solution counter playoff teams are playing five feet off the bench and they're not going to be able to play five feet off the bench in the playoffs it's the that's the playoffs i'm not like this is i'm not expecting any sort of offensive surge from him yet okay i'm not a lot you're tempting me to do lock this up because i'm zach went over i went over you went under you know what f it lock it oh i love it lock i love it so much it's always good to make it always is good to make decisions when you're irrationally upset about something zach troy basketball i like it i could see it listen these there's five teams who are all in this over under range of 45 to 48 and we're going to be wrong about one of them yeah my biggest fear going under for them is what you laid out before zach about the trade possibilities and you know mahoney threw this out last week on my pod and i've heard it other places too but could this be a kairi team and what would that look like because they have a corey to put in the trade they have contracts to put in a trade like they're it actually is a nice match and could kate and kairi together that's kind of interesting would be kind of nice stay with your under don't don't stay with your under own it eat it and i'm locking in my over locked it all right i want you to buckle up but then also put the strap over the shoulder buckle up the double buckle up you're telling people to buckle up the roller coaster buckle double it's a roller coaster buckle indiana pacers 44 and a half they're plus 290 for the division 51 for the conference 41 for the title minus 185 for the playoffs to be the one seed i have this a bold joe house yeah 18 to 1 they were 19 and 63 last year and we're 6 and 24 in the last 30 games and yet in their last 63 games including the playoffs in 2025 with a healthy tyree salbert they're 44 and a half they're plus 290 for the league they're 42 and 21 they're 11 deep they've proven identity they have a franchise star is back they have added zoo bots they had a kelly uber they didn't lose anybody the big question joe house why isn't this the sleeper in either conference well i think it is and it was the very first bet that i made as soon as the win totals came out it opened at 43 and a half i took an uncomfortable amount of money and put it down on that i'm i'm somewhat surprised to see it only climb by the one game to 44 and a half i think everybody is you know trying to um figure all of these teams in this class that you're describing here what how if you give indiana a giant bump what are you going to do with uh the toronto raptors and what are you going to do with atlanta and what are you going to do with detroit if you give indiana this enormous leap back up into the upper 40s maybe low 50s how do you you know navigate that and especially if the east is as tough as we think i don't give a fuck this team is absolutely loaded i think that they were very intentional with the way that they played out last year in every respect except for the forever befuddling decision to not protect all the way through five in terms of of the pick they got for zoo other than that they're they're they're right for it the only i mean god damn if they had gotten if they had kept that pick too on top of everything god damn they couldn't protect it they couldn't protect it well what happened happened and the bottom line is they have zoo on this team who i thought was better two years ago than it was last year before i got traded but i also think he was hurt fair enough i think you desperately need somebody like that in the east and look they you know hal burton comes back the league's trying to build these stars they have his first game is against new orleans it's not on national tv anything like that it's just on league pass and i think it's i think they're just adding it to the fuck you file i think the pacers have a giant fuck you file i think they're mad that they didn't win the title i think they all feel like they would have if hal burton hadn't gotten hurt um and i think they're being discounted this year in every conceivable way they're not being mentioned at all i'll tell you this before we get to zach's take i have the knicks or the pacers whoever wins that series makes the finals there you go and i'm a new bang i'm gonna decide on tuesday but i think the pacers are really scary and uh and i don't care that hal burton missed all last year i think they're gonna be really good this is an absolute unequivocal lock over 44 and a half for me what do you have zach well i can tell you guys who are not going to be in the fuck you files of the indiana pacers and it's us because i'm also going over and house explained very articulately why i went slightly unhappy unders on the knicks and the celtics i'm not the celtic i went over on the celtics the knicks and the sixers because i'm this whole batch of teams i'm going over now i'm going i'm gonna zag a little bit because i'm not that optimistic as you guys are about indiana's regular season win total mostly because i've seen tyree's haliburton play a preseason game and he looked pretty good i i do expect some ups and downs as he comes back from an achilles injury by the way he had ups and downs when he was good he did a regular season he would kind of go up and down a tiny bit and the year they played two years ago when they made the finals i believe they won 50 games nemhart and neesmith were both injured for a large part of they they were like 500 after 30 games or something and they then they hit a uh so i do think they're going to be over i i i do wonder if like you you guys are being a little too enthusiastic about their regular season fortunes but yeah if they get to the playoffs and they've found that vibe that they had that rhythm that they had they are extremely dangerous and nothing about what they did in the playoffs was fluky even though it involved the greatest run of crunch time shot making probably in the history of basketball by tyree's haliburton um i will go over them i have them at i'm looking it up 52 wins yeah i'm not surprised to hear it i am going to bet them at plus 290 to win the division so that's why you know cleveland to win the division at plus 125 doesn't move move you you have to have something on the pacers to win the division i'm thinking more like 47 yeah 48 yeah that's fine it is but plus 290 for the division i like that one you have to have a small ticket on it if you're if your ceiling is 52 i'll say this too other than the next starting five i think this is easily my favorite division i think this is my favorite division i think this is my favorite starting five in the east zubat siakam nee nee smith nemhard and halburton that checks all the boxes i love that starting five it's a basketball that is like a bill simmons basketball team it's literally why i have the raptors at 46 i trust this team so much more than i trust the raptors i mean the raptors are we was a nice story last season 2 and 22 against the really good solid team in the league i'll take rick carlisle in this group that made it to the nba finals two years ago starting five with like a little bit of a word though bill well but i don't know how many times i'm going to see it over the course of a season i know with the five guys i mentioned i'm going to see them for six months i like the bench too i still like i like the huff topping combo i feel like i do i i think that's that's the night like zubats isn't playing tonight oh we're going to play jay huff it's like okay jay huff jay huff's fine sounded like you it's you pop you sound like you pop in the oven for for dinner like anyone want a little huff topping tonight you know what it's like he's like hopping is phenomenal that's a stouffer's french bread pizza in the in the freezer i demand can i make a a a um a small entreaty to this group can we please get jay huff into the dunk contest this upcoming year jay huff wants to be in the goddamn dunk contest wait till you see him pre-game what he what he's capable of this is an acrobatic as all get out seven footer he has them all he has every dunk he does them in pre-game he goes around he's just you know getting them off he's just you know getting them off he's just you know getting them off he's he's a great three-point shooter the huff element of the bet i don't want to overdo his role in terms of this team but get jay huff into the dunk contest please Can either of you name the winner of last year's dunk contest? No chance. No. I can't. No chance. I believe it was Kashad Johnson from the Miami. I would be able to name the winner of the white guy slam dunk contest if they did that. Well, Jay Huff would be Jay Huff. The odds-on favorite. And I'll say with Oubre, who I think is a little bit of a punching bag sometimes, and he's bounced around, and like Golden State, it didn't work there. And, you know, he's had a lot of cups of coffee in a lot of places. I thought he was really good in the Celtics series. I think he really defended Jalen well, and I thought he was impactful. He's got toughness. He's a playoff rotation guy. Maybe you don't want to play him 30 minutes a game. Obviously, TJ is still there. As you know, Zach, I've always loved Jairus Walker. Still waiting for him to have his moment. And I really like Shepard. Me too. I think Shepard's good. Well, I'll forever have a soft spot in my heart for Shepard because I had great seats for a Wizards-Pacers game last season. And we were there early enough for shoot-around, and Ben Shepard rolled the ball to my kid and let him take a shot from the sideline. Oh, look at that. Ben Shepard. Bad mother. I love that. So are you locking this down? Lock. It's a lock. It's a lock. No lock for me. No lock for me. No lock for you. No lock for me. Sorry. You know what else is great about rooting for the Pacers? It's. This is a team that was in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and their best player blew out as Achilles on the court. And if you can't root for that team to find redemption in some way, you don't have a soul and a heart. Interesting. You're giving me a much different version of, like, 2014 Spurs who were on another level as a regular season team, but, like, they used the ultimate heartbreak from the previous year's Finals as fuel. I like this. Yeah. I'm all in on Indiana. I think they're going to be really good. And I think. Anecdotally, I think within the league, I think that's. This is the team the other players are kind of. Kind of want to see what happens with this team. Sure. From an upside standpoint. Because Tyrese has that respect. Yeah. Chicago Bulls, over-under 29 and a half. Probably the best placed over-under of this entire podcast. Perfect. You can just debate whether they're going to win 29 or 30 for five hours straight. Tend to want to make the playoffs. Last 30 games last year, they were 7 and 23. They finished 31 and 51 overall. New coach, Tiago Splitter. They lost Anthony Simons. They added Caleb Wilson, Nick Claxton, and Norm Powell. And have one of those starting fives that, on paper, is kind of delightful. Big question, Zach. What is the highest possible ceiling of a Caleb Wilson rookie season for you? And have you watched him? Have you done any work on him yet? Oh, yeah. In your head, what is he? I mean, the highest possible ceiling is rookie of the year, for sure. What do the stats look like? 21, 8, and 5. I think the shooting efficiency will be a little iffy. But defensively, I mean, he and Guzelas have a chance to combine for four blocks a game as forwards, which is pretty rare. There's like a little chemistry thing going on with them already, too. I think those guys are like, let's fucking roll for the next couple of years here. Let's run. We just get to run. We're going to run. Giddy's going to push the ball up the court. Norm's going to sprint to the three-point line. We're going to run the wings. This team is built to absolutely fly, which is how they played last year and how Splitter's team played in Portland, too. It's shocking that a team that's been as completely incompetent as the Bulls, now they have a new front office. But the GM they had, I think, was in the running for one of the worst of the last 10 years. But really smart moves across the board, right? Nick Claxton, who I don't love. But if he's going to be on a team, you'd want him on a team like this that's going to fly up and down. Powell, who maybe could take or leave on certain teams. On this team, they're probably going to be running offense for him at the end of games, which he loves. And then Caleb going to this particular city that has been dying for really anything. And I said this to House, and House made a groaning noise like he does when a porter's house comes out. It definitely reminds me of T-Mac. Yeah. It's official. I feel like he's taller T-Mac at UNC, and it was just like, is he KG? What is he? And he's all pieces of different things, and there's going to be pieces of different players. But he reminds me of T-Mac that last Raptors year when we started to wonder if there was a little more there. It's like, oh, maybe he's not Scottie Pippen. What is this? But he's taller than T-Mac. And I just think his stroke on the three is so pure that I think he's going to. I think he's going to shoot way more threes than I expected. So anyway, I'm all in on him. Why wouldn't he shoot? Why wouldn't he do whatever the hell he wants? He's the future of the franchise. They're not going anywhere this year. But it's interesting because I remember during the draft, you would hear scouts be like, well, he's a four. He's going to do big man stuff in the league. And then people around him kind of push back and say, no, he's going to be like a big wing who handles the ball. And it looks like he's trending already much more toward that kind of player with the size. And athleticism and shop locking and rim protection of a big man. So all the all the intrigue is is well deserved and merited. So I went under because of how good the conference is. And because I think this team will be incentivized to be a four to ten team. I don't think they have. There's 11 teams in the East that all think they can win 45 games and up. And we have 10 playoff spots and the Bulls are not going to be a playoff. So at some point. They're going to have to look at each other and be like, all right, let's let's make sure we don't drop into the bottom three. But we're right around this four, five, six, seven range. And then add one more piece to what they have. I don't love their bench either. It's just a poo poo platter of guys that other teams didn't want. Buddy Heald, who's now been on every team in the league. Zach Collins, a Coro, Jalen Smith. I'm just not a Patrick Williams is still on the team. So this is. I like Jalen Smith as a backup five. I think he and Trey Jones are a really good six and seven off the bench. After that, it's it's a I can't get Leonard Miller. If Leonard Miller, if this preseason thing is real, that's kind of interesting to say the least. So I like their bench. After that, it's a it's a giant question mark for sure. Under for me. What do you have? Under also. And again, surprised that I'm going under on. The bottom feeders in the east because, you know, again, the tanking rules are supposed to go the other way. But they also have high sell trade potential with like a Norm Powell and Nick Laxton kind of deal. I just think young and exciting is also often like young and bad. Like defensively, I think they're going to be pretty bad shooting wise. They're going to be iffy. So I think we're all excited to watch them. But that doesn't mean they're going to win 30 games. They're going to have four games this year where we're like San Antonio lost in Chicago. They'll have four of those. And that'll be and then their fans will love the two guys. And Splitter, I thought Splitter did a nice job with Portland last year. So, yeah, it's just the east is too good. It makes more sense for them to do exactly what what Zach just observed, which is Powell and Claxton. Those are valuable players for some of these teams that are missing stuff like the Sixers. I'm not a sold on Claxton. Well, I'm just saying there are teams that are going to need a backup. You know, you need good bodies at some point. And Powell, I just. I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger market for him, but he makes sense on a different team. They finished the last season 25th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. Those numbers aren't going to really improve. They're not going to be especially on the defensive side, but super fun to watch. It's an under for me. I like Norm Powell. So I said that pointing out that I like Norm Powell and I enjoyed having him on the Clippers. I do think he's a two name guy where if you ask. Teams you've been on. Like, what do you think of Norm Powell? It's like, well, you know, Norm's Norm. I think he's a two namer. I couldn't remember in your lexicon what a two name guy was. I didn't know if he's. I didn't know if that. I didn't know if that meant you had to say his full name when referencing him or or now I know what it is. So now I'm going to start thinking of two name guys in my life. How is Zach's writing thing going again? Well, you know, Zach, Zach. He seems happy. You compared me to Porzingis yesterday in terms of my availability, my finger, my fingers availability. So that was that was a joke. That was a joke on text. Oh, boy. Put your seatbelt on again. We've got the Milwaukee Bucks at twenty five and a half. No, I'm going to cruise. I'm going to cruise. I'm going to park, take the seatbelt off and lay back in the take a little nap in the seat. They are twenty to one to make the playoffs. They went thirty two and fifty last year. None of their other odds matter. They don't have their first round pick going to either New Orleans or Atlanta. Taylor Jenkins is their new coach. They lost Bobby Portis and the entire Ananda Kupo family. They added Tyler Harrow, Brandon Burries, Jaime Jaquez, Kalel Ware, Karis LeVert for some reason. They willingly acquired Karis LeVert. I still don't understand that. And Nate Ament. Congrats on all those. My big question, Zach, was not trading Giannis in the summer of 2025 the single biggest mistake anyone has made this decade, with the exception of the Luka trade? I'd have to go back and think, like, what would the offers have been then? Who else would have been? I mean, obviously, tons of people would have been engaged. Maybe, maybe even earlier than that. I mean, obviously, they waited too long and it became this just endless soap opera where we all knew how it was going to end. And then it ended and they got in. Well, don't forget about the other part. Instead of trading him, what did they do? They stretched Dame. Oh, well, that. And added the Miles Turner contract. So it was like a, it was a double murder house. A triple. That was a triple homicide. It was a triple homicide. We got to get Briska Hargitay here. She's like, ah, man, Jimmy Haslam's house. There's three bodies. Dame is the third highest paid buck this year. There you go. Dead body. So he could have been an expiring for them this year. And maybe some flexibility. He's a body in the vacants. Do things. I had the only other big mistakes I had in the vicinity. And I don't think it's as bad as the two I mentioned. The Lakers Westbrook trade where they also had to get rid of Caruso and a couple of the other guys. Philadelphia not getting Hal Burton for Simmons. I'll never forgive them for that. Phoenix is KD trade. Just throwing in. Literally everything. And then it seems to be true that Golden State could have had Caruso for Kaminga. In like 23. And I still can't believe they didn't do that. So that I remember. I remember a lot of Caruso buzz. Next question's for house. Okay. Is this the bleakest situation in the league? You have no pick this year. You have a swap next year with Portland in 2029. You don't have a first round pick. everyone on your team is a trade machine candidate except Burris and maybe A-Man. Milwaukee is all about the Brewers and the Packers right now, especially the Brewers. The Trent, Turner, Lillard decisions, a full cap catastrophe. The fact that they have to go put on a case and defend the Gary Trent, that's kind of the just reward. That is a type of justice for the mismanagement of this franchise over the last half decade. And on top of all this, if Giannis is really good at Miami, there's going to be that too. Well, he is going to be good at Miami. I mean, I don't think, yeah, I think he's going to play. So is there a bleaker situation? No. Would you rather be a fan of every other team in the league than the Milwaukee Bucks? You could, the Clippers are the only rival for this. I was going to say, I can think of one that's perhaps in contention for sheer, like I have to go to parties. You're like, yeah, you know, I don't know. My dad's a Clippers fan. So I became one that's, I know, I know it's. Yeah, at least with the Bucks, you won the title in 21. Yeah, Clippers are worse. All right. So there may be number two. I think Kings, there's so much comedy and tragedy that it just keeps you on your toes. I feel like the Kings are closer to a turnaround. Like we're at the very, very beginning with this Bucks team. We're so far away from understanding. Kings Reddit. I go to Kings Reddit. I don't go to a lot of Reddits. Kings Reddit. For comedy's sake, when something bad happens, is one of the funniest places on the internet. All of them are stand-up comedians at this point. It's like what Alan Alda said in Crimes and Misdemeanors. Tragedy is comedy plus time. That's the entire Kings Reddit. What are the Kings turning around toward? I don't know. I don't have a good answer for that. At least you get to watch Acuff run pick and roll with some bonus. That's fun. That's it. With the Bucks, like at least you get Burys and at least maybe a hero. I love Burys, man. I love Burys. I absolutely love Burys. I just can't believe what a. I can't say what I was going to say. There's guys. There's guys. I can't sell you on. Here's a little Usman Jang, most improved player stock. I can't sell you on Jaime Jaquez Jr., who I would have voted sixth man of the year last year. Kalel Ware. I'm pretty high on Kalel Ware. I can't be sold on him. Those are all bodies. Those are bodies. That is a return to sender. Return to sender, Kalel Ware? Yeah. Ryan Rollins is legit good. He's good. You're returning Kalel Ware to sender? I'm not a fan. He is the great disappearing act. I saw him in person. I might have even been with House. We definitely went to a Heat-Celtics game. Went to a Heat game where I forgot he played. And then he came in with five minutes left. And I was like, and he played like 20 minutes. We didn't even notice him. Zach, will you rank the trade machine guys for me in this team? I'll give you Turner, Hero, Jaquez, and Ware. Rank them one to four. In terms of. In terms of most value? No, for how likely they are to be traded by February. Turner, Hero, Jaquez, Ware. One. All right, I'll go four Ware, three Turner. No, three Jaquez, two Turner, one Hero. It's most likely to be traded. And Hero, this is. See, I might have to change my Pistons pick. That's the Piston. Oh, okay. No, you can't. No. No, I'm not. I'm going to keep it. I'm going to honor it. But Hero is the Pistons move. It's a great move. That's a classic ad that would be perfect for them. Now I don't have to worry about Cage just having to run every single fucking play for two hours. You know? You really have to have a sit down with Hero, though. Like, please. Just show a tiny bit of discipline. Four minutes left in the game. You do not have to take two dribbles and shoot. Please, don't do that. There's not a lot of guys who've averaged 20 a game for like five straight years. Tyler Hero's good. Yeah, he's good. And. Yeah, he's good. I just. I. The reason I would rank him number one is obviously the expiring, but also like the Bucs just being in this position of it doesn't really make any sense for us to splurge on the kind of extension that you, Tyler Hero, want. Right. And they're a 4-10 team. Well, I'm an under, guys. What do you got? Under. Definitely under. Now, I will say. Can we pause for a second? Are you at all concerned that so far we are under on all the bad East teams? Because that made me pause as I did this. And I was able to justify it team by team and by going under on some of the ones at the top. But I. This will be interesting to see if these teams are really this bad. So I sketched out all the wins to make sure all my wins added up both ways. This is a Cousin Sal trick because he's a psychopath. And I had Chicago at 26 wins, Brooklyn at 21, and Milwaukee at 21. Okay. So that is basically a minus 55 for those three teams. So now, you have to just make. Allocate the wins. The plus 55 going the other way and you can figure out how to add it up. But there's some. The South is where there's some. In the old documentary parlance, you have to kill some babies. The documentaries, you make a three-hour documentary and you have to cut it down to two. There's just scenes you got to cut. Yep. And I feel that way about a couple of those South teams. And I'm just like, oh, man. I hate doing this, but I got to. All right. So we're all under on all those. We're going to come back. With, I think, the hardest to figure out division in the entire NBA. The whatever the hell. The South. Is it Southeast? It is the Southeast. Yes. It's the Southeast division. And then we also get House's Washington Wizards scouting report. A tradition of the over-unders. That is next. All right. Last division. We made it. The Orlando Magic at 43 and a half. An insulting over-under for them. They were 45 and 36 last year. And they got a new coach, Sean Sweeney. They're plus 250 for the division. 41 for the title. Minus 165 for the playoffs. The big question, Zach Lowe. Yeah. When will we officially figure out if Palo and Franz make sense together? And is it this season? Oh, it's by February. We're going to know. Unless one of them, as seems to happen every year, game 10 of the season, there's some sort of fluke injury in there. We now have, we now have 30 more games of no data. But yeah, I think this is the year the rubber meets the road. You're seeing it with Anthony Black not having an extension yet. The team is just too expensive, has too many pieces making too much money, is going to have to make some painful decisions if this doesn't all click into place. And the over-under is really very firmly suggesting it is not going to click all into place. And yet, they do have a smarter coach, defensive specialist, but I think really, really respected. And I feel like that's going to be worth a couple wins, House. I agree. Neither of us are Mosley guys. So my big questions are, what if this isn't right with the new coach? And then, is Franz going to make it through a season? Would be my two big things. I don't mind their bench. I thought Bain was actually pretty good last year. Do you feel like they regret the Bain trade, Zach? If you could do the go back in time two years, yes, I think you have to based on not, he's played fine. He's been Desmond Bain. It just kind of over underestimated in the second apron and how dangerous a trade like that was for them, I think would be the regret, right? Yeah, you only have so many of those kind of bullets to throw. I'm a little more worried about their bench than you are. I mean, I like Anthony Black a lot after that. The Silva's all right, but Taze is all right. Jace Richardson's been showing some stuff in the preseason, so that's all right. It's fine. Yeah, it's fine. It's a C plus bench. House, where are you looking? Over. Okay. Yeah. I think that this team. especially Bain. I watched Bain's Bain take nights off last year. I mean, there was, and then it was some combination of something going on with that coaching staff and something going on with Paolo and something going on with Bain. Like they were not all on the same page and it happened like quickly. It happened early in the season and it is always with this Orlando team. Can those guys can Suggs, can they all be healthy for 50 games? Can they, that all of those guys be healthy so we can see for sure what this looks like. The playoff run was kind of, you know, okay, good. They give a shit. That's great to see. It's great to see Paolo actually out there. You know, they, they gave everything they had to Detroit and I do adhere to what you advanced earlier, which is they would have beat Detroit if, if Franz hadn't gone out there. I mean, Franz was, is a secret sauce. They paid him to be a secret sauce. I just think that, the entire framework of how they approach basketball is going to be changed. I'm over indexing on Sean Sweeney left hand up. I'm saying it right now. I think it's going to be a revelation and I think they're going to be really good. There's no reason for them to drop out of the top 10 defensively. And they are not, they haven't been, and I don't know how long a top half of the league offense with the talent they have, that doesn't make any sense. So I think Sweeney and who he brings along with him, what they install, it's going to be effective. I like this Orlando team. It's an over for me. 15 to one on Fando for coach of the year, Sean Sweeney. I'd like to echo house's thoughts. This seemed like an unhappy disjointed team last year. That wasn't well coached and kind of survived based on how much talent they had. The sub season was weird. I don't know what happened to his three point shooting. I thought his playoff performance and just the heat checks over and over again, when he couldn't make a shot was just bizarre. But also a sign that maybe you don't have a great coaching staff and a good whatever in place. And I'm bullish on the talent. I really do like their starting five. I I'm actually going over. I think, I think they're in the mid forties somewhere. And I don't think even though the conference is tougher, I think they had the year from hell last year. So I'm a little more bullish on them. I think then, then the majority or the minority, I mean, we, we barely saw the starting five because of all the injuries on paper. I agree with you. Like it's an easy over. There's just too much talent here, even in the beefed up East for this to be basically a 500 team, given what they've done when they've been healthy ish. They tend to win more games than this. And so I'm, I'm going, I'm going over. I'm not emphatic about it, but I'm going over. I will say that this would be a team that if it's not going well, you could see an in-season pivot in some crazy direction that messes all, all this up. But I, I think there's just too much talent, new coach over. I, I didn't somehow, this isn't in my notes. They have their pick this year. They don't. I will check now, but they're, they're pretty picked and swapped out. I think, I don't think they have it. Hold on. I'm looking to, uh, they do have their pick this year. They do have it. Okay. The one thing to observe, they could go into four to 10 range. If it goes bad, you remember we were doing Orlando this time last year, the three of us here in Los Angeles, California, and it was supposed to be like 50 wins for this team. Yeah. Well, absolutely. Nothing's changed except for the head, the coach and it's 43 and a half. Now I lock. I think I had, I had them as an over lock last year, which didn't go great. It wasn't really your fault. They kept, kept getting hurt. I'm an over two. I can't lock it because I'm not positive. Franz and Palo are both going to be on the team in February. We'll see what happens, but I do like the coaching hire and, uh, and I think this team should be good. Miami. I accidentally skipped them. Their over under is now 44 and a half. division plus 155, conference 11-1, title 30-1, playoffs minus 250, playing plus 160. One seed 11-1 if you want to get excited about that. Last year, they were 43-39. They added Giannis and the rest of the Antetokounmpo family and Tetekoupo family. They added Bobby Portis. They added Tim Hardaway Jr. They added the artist formerly known as Klay Thompson, who might be painting again. We'll see. He's got a boat. The place to park his boat. They lost Hiro, Powell, Jaquez, and Ware, who were like four of their best six guys. You just said Ware returned to sender. Now he's one of their six best guys? On paper, he was one of their six best guys. The big question. If I could find it. Can he get? One great year at Giannis, Zach Lowe. Just one. Just give us one great year. If you can't, you're really up a creek because you made the trade suggesting you should get three or four really good years to great years out of Giannis. Yeah, of course you can. I mean, great year. Like, he's an MVP candidate the entire year. He's 30-11. Yes. He plays 68 to 70 games. Look, I don't think anyone is an MVP candidate. I think Luka is the only one that can still crack the top three. Other than that, we're talking about, like, are you in the conversation, which is code for, like, could you get fourth or fifth? I think that's where Giannis could get. I don't see him leaping over Shea, Jokic. So they won, like, 52 games, and he was 30-11 and played 72 games and got, you know, rejuvenated the franchise, basically. You don't even think he's in that combo? Because I think he would be. I think he could get in the conversation, but those three guys are so good that you can make up whatever stat you want to make up for them, and they're going to rival whatever, whatever line you just gave out for Giannis, and their team might win more games. Will win more games in most cases. I got to ask, if Giannis crashed the 27 finals, what would that do for his legacy? Oh, it's been a while since the L word came up. I only allowed one legacy segment in each part. How would his legacy shift, Zach? It would be a legacy changer for him, and we've seen in the finals, if you get there, you don't know what's going to happen. It's not so predictable. So, I mean, look, he hasn't had a real playoff run since the title win, and that hasn't been, that's been injuries, that's been injuries to him, it's been injuries to Chris Middleton, it's been other stuff. So, yeah, I mean, he is in need of a late career resurgence in the postseason, and I think, you know, there was no perfect spot for him in that regard, given how much you have to give up to get him, but I'm an over on the heat. I am going to lock the over on the heat. I think this line is too low. If Giannis plays 65 to 70 games, I just think they're just better than this. If he doesn't, obviously, I will go bust on this, but I'm going over lock. I have Giannis 20th in the pyramid right now. Wow. Kind of makes sense. It's right behind Dirk Nowitzki. He needs to get to another finals. He's right behind Bob. Bob Pettit as well, who just passed away, sadly. Forgot to do a Bob Pettit thing on my podcast. House, where are you on the Miami Heat? It's an over. I mean, this is out of respect for Spolstra, out of respect for the franchise. The starting five, I absolutely trust. It's going to be 43 wins out of the poo-poo platter that was the roster that we just went through last year for this. That's just Spoh. That's just this Miami team showing up. With institutional smarts and continuity and planning. For sure, they had, they reap the benefit of beating up on the bottom dwellers in the East. But I think Giannis, you want this refreshed, ready to go dominate version of Giannis with this, this group of players, I think are very complimentary. It was an easy over for me. Here it comes. Here it comes. You want to do it. I did all my Giannis content over and over again during the interminably long Giannis trade saga, including some of the season 14 or later stuff with big guys and how Moses was the only guy ever to average 2010 and 50 plus games. How only LeBron and mailman averaged 2010 and seven plus playoff games. Age 32 guys. We haven't had a 24 and 10 from an age 32 guy in 2018. That's eight years. Playoffs 2010 for 12 plus games. Mailman, Hakeem, Hayes, Kareem and LeBron. That's it. And I was under for most of the summer. But I've been. Been really impressed by everything I'm reading and seeing. Defensively, they should be a top five team. Offensively. They have to be a top five team. They have to replace the threes that they lost with Harrow and Powell. But Detroit made 11 threes a game last year and was 160 games. So I'm not that worried about that. I do like the Portis part. I didn't love the clay signing, but I get why they did it. I like Fontechio, as you know. Wiggins should be able to handle the swings. Bam Giannis is going to be clumsy, but I think the defense will over overcorrect for that. But I like everything I'm reading with that. The chemistry and stuff. And I do feel like this is going to be, the more I stare at it and look at it from afar and kind of dread the heat being good again, it just feels like they're going to get one really good Giannis year here. And I don't know if it's going to be more than one, but they're going to get a rejuvenated guy. Who's ready to like reclaim something. And along with the coaching staff and everything else, I just, I don't see how this team's not in the high forties if, unless Giannis gets hurt again. So I'm not locking it down, but the safe bet, if we're doing this, which is how we should be approaching every team is that this team should win 48 to 52 games. So I'm over. You didn't enjoy that. Did you? I didn't. He said all summer he was down on him, down on him, down on him. We didn't even mention Pelly Larson. Does he think that that guy, I thought that contract was aggressive. Not as aggressive as the Jovich contract, which was just inexplicable as it happened, but at least Pelly Larson, I'm watching him last year is he was pretty good, but listen, no locks. We're all overs. No, I'm the only lock. And by the way, I can't do it with the health stuff with Giannis. I'm only locking it. Cause I'm, we need a requisite amount of locks per person. I'm a little short on locks. So I need to load up my Eastern conference lock. I might, by the end of the pod, I might change my mind on whether that's a lock or not for me. But you know, it goes back to what you said earlier, when we were talking about with Dallas with flag and clay together. And it's like, you know, it's really nice having two of those. Two of the best 30 guys in the league every night, night after night. I have no idea if they're going to fit together. I think the offense is going to be really clumsy, but as so if a coach is going to figure it out, they have one of the four or five guys who could unlock it. But I think he's gonna, I think he's going to have a real energy to him and I like everything I've heard from him. So three overs, this was in the running for hardest when the Atlanta Hawks 43 and a half play in plus one 35 playoffs minus one. So, you know, you know, you know, you know, 70, 40 to win the title there, 46 and 36 last year, 21 and nine last 30. Big question house. They feel like they're one move away. What's the move. Does it need to be this season? Can they wait? Well, I, I loved the door and the Wiggins moves. So that those were the moves. I think, I mean, not this team, you have to make a decision about the last 30 games of last year. How real, what was that? Do you believe that that's really what this team is capable of? Is that a good reflection of the ceiling for this Hawks team? They're still young. They still can put it, you know, defensively, is there another level to them? They finished inside the top 10 and defensive rating that includes a big chunk of the season that Trey young was on the team and then not playing. And it was awkward. Yes. And they were even inside the top half of the league and offensive rating. So where is there a ceiling coming from? Exactly. I, they won 46 in a league where 30% of the league tank, the last 11 weeks of the season, 43 and a half is just too low. I, um, don't want to get too aggressive with it, but I really like what they did in the, in the off season. And they still have a ton of assets. They have boosts to make. And I think that there's another level of the jail and Johnson, like we're going to start having some all NBA conversations. Yeah. You know, more, more not start, but additional all NBA conversations around jail and Johnson. So I'm, I'm over with this Hawks team. They lost research and buddy healed. They added Lou Dort, Kingston, Fleming's and Aaron Wiggins. It's very good. So on roster better. I love their, um, GM too. He's good. The Hawks are smart. I like everything they've done. I even thought Fleming's was the right pick, even though I don't love taking a guard that high, but they had to take a swing at one of those guys. I like their bench. They're basically going to have Dort, Wiggins, Fleming's, Jack Landale, Wilson, Asia for Finney Smith. Like they, they have some depth. I just wonder if this is the team. Like, is this a team that could be in the cat sweepstakes? If that ever happens, is this a Trey Murphy team? Could this be a team that talked itself into Jamal Murray and said, you know, Oh, we'll flip you McCollum. Daniels. And we'll take Jamal's backside. Like those kinds of trades. Zach, are you under, are you under or over? I think you're under. I'm under. I'm under as well, but I'm like, I couldn't, I'm like, I'm a hair under, under 43 and a half. Yeah. I'm under, I have them at 42 or 43, somewhere in there. I got to have some unders in the East. Me too. And, um, and this, I think this is a fair line given that they beat a bunch of guys. A bunch of bad teams toward the end of last season. Yes. I know that they won twice against the Knicks and nobody else did. I, I just feel like the whole conference is going to be so much better. And. Dort's introduction. I, they have a lot of like equations to solve about their team and their style of play and what lineups don't have enough shooting and what lineups don't have enough defense. And do they have enough rim protection and all that? I just feel like it's going to take them a little while to find the right mix. I trust their bench a little bit less than you do bill. Um, it's, it's young. It's, it's a little unproven. We like Dorton Wiggins though. I Wiggins is good. Uh, you know, edge of four new mole gaze, injured Kispert always seems to fall in and out of the rotations, land deals, whatever Finney Smith couldn't is been moved all around the league after a bad season in Houston. I am going a slight under on the Hawks. I thought I was going over the entire off season. And even until last week and something doesn't feel right. Um, right with this team. Like, and I agreed with all the moves they make and I liked all the assets they collected. So I'm not, it's not a criticism of the front office. I just, I don't understand how they're going to kind of figure out this stew of, of players and who's going to play, not play putting door down there. Like door, it's going to have kind of have to play in crunch time. So now who am I sitting? Am I sitting dice Daniels who I gave a hundred million dollars to my sitting Alexander? Why? Walker? I don't want to do that. I'm not sitting Jalen Johnson. So it's probably Daniels. And now does he go sideways? And then if I'm not sitting Daniels and I'm starting Daniels over door, do I lose door? Dort's like, I'm a fucking champion. 27 years old. I'm playing for a new contract. So you have that you have Fleming's wants to play. I don't know. There's some minute stuff that worried me with this team. All right. So two wonders in an over for house. Wow. Two left. Charlotte Hornets. There's been some action on the under. It was, I think it was 39 and a half house down at 37 and a half Charlotte. Yep. Yep. For sure. Well, the third of their team is injured right now. That's why. And that's why they were 29, 11 in their last 40 games last year. Plus one 70 for the playoffs. Plus one 50 for the plan. They also have three first next, next year, their own pick Miami top 14 protected Dallas top two protected. And they could easily, if, if they don't like the way the season is going ease into that four to 10 range. The big question. Is it a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets sack? That if I ran an NBA team, I would have played it exactly like the Hornets did the last two years, every single move. So this is a, this is about you. I'm judging you. Is that a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets and their fans that I completely agree with every single thing they did. So you're all in on Christian Anderson and Hanna Stein, but I didn't love the Christian Anderson one, but I, they owe the Corey. I would have liked more for them. I would have taken file in. So I guess I didn't completely agree. Cause I would take in file. I think it's, I think it's a good sign. I objectively, even as someone who likes LaMelo ball, I, they clearly decided last year was semi, not that real. And what we're being offered up for him for miles bridges is just too much. To turn down. We'll take a slight step back to take a bigger step forward down the line. See what Brandon Miller can do. See what con can Apple can do. In the meantime, we have like 13 decent rotation players. That's going to be helpful in the regular season. So no, I don't think it's a bad sign. The over under says, this is a team that's six wins worse than last year. If any of the top 10 fall. So that would make them team 11 in the East. If any of those top 10 teams fall out, for some reason, they're ready to spring in. I would have, if they had been healthy going into the season, I would have gone over and I would have talked myself into bumping Orlando or one of these other ones, but they're not going to be, it doesn't sound like they're gonna have their team for like probably until early November, which puts us three weeks in. You could be like two and eight at that point. Now I'm, now I'm already trying to climb back and I just have hard games every day. I just, I worry about it. But so they had lost LaMelo bridges, Josh green, Trey, man, they added Nas, Grayson Allen, who I thought was a really sneaky one. Oh, Neil, I think Steinbeck is going to play right away for them because he rebounds Christian Anderson. We'll see. And then they got Schroeder because of the rule that he has to be on every team in the league. And, and, and Kobe white, not in the off season, but as the sort of that's the replacement for LaMelo ball, basically. And I think this could be a spoiler team in the second half, but I think that now they're one, like, let's say Congo, goes down for a month or Miller. On top of this first three weeks, they have no room for injury for error with injury at all. And I think it's okay. If they don't make the playoffs this year, they didn't make the playoffs last year. They did make the play in. Right. That was the high watermark for LaMelo ball. And if they're in the four to 10 with a chance at one more awesome draft pick on top of all the other draft picks they have, that's where you want to be. Yeah. And, and, and the nucleus is young. It's young enough. I mean, it's the observations act just made, which is, you know, a slight step back this season because you might really have something next season. And I think that's an easy enough thing to sell to the fan base. You don't want to rush anybody backwards too early in this experiment. The only thing that gives me hesitation, any pause whatsoever. Is it disrespectful to Charles Lee? Is it disrespectful to Charles Lee to say that this is not, this team won't win 38 games because Brandon, if Brandon Miller's healthy. Yeah. He's another guy, another leap guy that has a whole nother sort of chapter to me. Um, I'm taking the under on the notion that it does make more sense for them. They, the, the asset building has been very impressive. No reason to, to sort of stop that bite down hard on anybody right now, unless something crazy revealed itself in terms of the trade market during the season. I 37 doesn't feel that disrespectful. So I'm taking the under. Yeah. The, the queasiness had taken the under is, is Charles Lee. It's like, Hey, Kobe white was pretty goddamn good for the last couple of years. And now we're giving him spacing with Nas read is like a true spacing for, um, that's a powerful potential offense. Maybe they're going to miss Lamello's playmaking and pull up three point shooting defensively. We'll see, um, if they can sustain what they did last year. And like, was the Musa Diabate thing a hundred percent real or now people know like, all right, this guy's a menace on the glass. Like we really have to be ready for this guy. And as is that center position between him and Kalkbrenner and whatever they do beyond that, is that quite enough? I am going under on Charlotte in a, in a stronger East this year. Yeah. Well, you knew I would do everything I possibly could to talk myself into the over despite the injuries start the year. I kept coming back to this and it was something, it was a stat I gave in my podcast last week about how. They made 16.2 threes a game last year, which led the league to their top six guys that they have this year. Do you include Grayson Allen? Their top six guys would all average 16.2. And the thing I keep coming back to is if they're at 18 made threes a game just for the entire season, how is that team going to go 37 and 45? Well, someone's got to create those threes, right? I mean, that was, that was a lot. I mean, that was a lot. games i was a hard under but now i'm wavering now i think there might be a 55 win team no we were we have to temper our expectations but it's just so refreshing and and people in washington really do deserve winning basketball the total at 30 and we've seen some 33 and a half what we're doing from the fanduel sportsbook is 34 and a half obviously i'm over he talked himself into the train extension about five minutes they were going to pay him they paid him a grotesque amount they overpaid him in in term and in dollars but they needed a point guard for this thing this year to work so it was a grotesque overpay for a point guard they believe travis schlenk is in washington he went from atlanta where he had he did great he he didn't do he did fine killed it did fine did fine did fine fine he was in the office every day they they made it didn't have any scandals ask a new york fan how they feel about trey young that's because of that atlanta team that that was built that way fuck trey young where'd that come from they succeeded they were not i love this they did succeed that was just so hard years ago that was yeah yeah all you're you're trying to make fun of travis schlenk they built a team where new york was motivated to say fuck trey young okay fine great you know to be fair the reason i made fun of travis schlenk was because he was terrible and got fired jesus i mean to be fair travis is travis is good i will say that you think you like travis i think he's good i think he's smart and i think some of the decisions that were made there that undid that team were not entirely his also new ownership group in atlanta not the same ownership i'll revise my statement a lot of the moves made under the tutelage of travis schlenk were abominable supervision purview zach are you under or over i i'm still recovering from you didn't know he was gonna be this emotional i thought he was gonna start talking about the baltimore bullets and gus johnson and west sunself you have to go that far you have to go that far back to find a winning basketball tradition boy a paranoia i mean i didn't know where what else was gonna come up rip mike sweeney stevie blake and maryland some of the greats steve francis of maryland i do look trey young is is is trey on the most underrated passer in the history of the league like people don't think of him as a passing genius because he holds the ball out and he monopolizes it and he's passing mostly to get assists other players play like that too for a little guy he's one of the best passers ever for a little guy he's one of the best passers ever for a little guy uh all that said i simply could not look at this whole picture all of it the history the youth the injuries and availability the it doesn't seem like anthony davis has been super psyched to be a washington wizard and not get a contract extension i can't look at all of that in a very strong top to bottom eastern conference and say 35 wins i'm going under i'd see the talent i'd see the talent i'd see the if they got 70 games out of trey and ad or 60 combined games or 55 i could see an over for sure because they just had so much stability on both ends although i do think the davis sar thing is going to need some ironing out on both ends of the floor i just i just can't trust these guys to win 35 games i'm sorry very fair very fair we did 13 going on 30 on the rewatchables a couple weeks ago julie and i were making jokes about mark ruffalo who clearly is on autopilot for most of the movie and has a look on his face like my agent told me this movie would be a good idea but i wish i wasn't here um peeking in the thriller scene when they have to do a thriller dance and you could just see him be like i thought i was going to win an oscar by now doing thriller and a jennifer garner rom-com that's how anthony davis has felt for about six months no i don't agree with that they're like anthony do the thriller dance he's like looking over rich paul to see if he can can i i got it all right i got it all right i don't think this will be their team in february despite your objections to this because if it was they would have picked up the anthony davis extension and given them an extra year and they did not so that makes me think they're trying to keep optionality each way and as we've discussed now 20 times in the pod the conference is too good and there's going to have to be a couple teams that aren't good i only have four teams under 38 wins in the east and that includes charlotte that i had at 38 so i have washington chicago brooklyn milwaukee all under and i i have washington somewhere between 32 and 34 wins i'll give you 34 just to be fun it is worth mentioning that trey young has not been a successful regular season player the last few years and he's somebody that teams relentlessly and delightedly attack on defense like it's their job if you're going glass half empty i think it's a good thing that you're going glass half empty it's fair to ask out loud atlanta had a pretty nice young core and how come trey young couldn't figure it out how come quinn snyder and trey young couldn't get on the same page with a nice young core why wasn't he a facilitator perfect for yeah he should have he could have been should have been perfect for why is that going to work in washington there's there's i mean it's been so long since there was any glass at all the glass got poured into the blue reflecting pool years and years ago and uh i i just can't i can't get to i can't get to 35 i have some extra news for you i'm listening this is a lock for me under 30 that's hard that's hurtful under 34 and a half honestly yeah i think this number is a miracle i'm gonna send you something why is this team gonna win 35 games anthony davis plays 40 games a year they have the number one over young who atlanta is like please take them number one overall draft pick in the entire league yeah i watched them at byu last year they lost the round would they lose the round one or round two i can't even remember this is beginning to feel like one of those things where you you you almost bet like emotionally you almost bet against the team you're cheering for so that you win either way you win if they win in your heart you win money if not that i bet but how can i do that he did the opposite no but now i having taken the under my heart wants house to win this because this has been such a this is a borderline of roast of joe house and the wizards now and my heart is is now set on i'd like him to be happy i'd like him to claim victory here i don't think he will though i'm i'm pretty confident you're gonna play 52 games against the east and be underdogs in like 42 of them 44 of them the most sober assessment of this all hyperbole and joking aside let's get these rotations figured out i mean because the who's the who's going to create the game i'm not going to create shots from the second unit there's a whole bunch of things you have a bunch of young guys who are like i'd love to take a lot of shots tonight please yeah will riley's one of them kishan george is one of them yeah sar how are sar and and i mean zach asked it but it's a lot of pressure on the coaching staff it's a lot well and that was one of the reasons i have a lock for this i thought the wizards coach was pretty terrible it's impossible to know whether or not he's terrible this is the first time that we're going to have a lot of pressure on the coaching staff because we're going to see him with the a mandate to go try and win basketball games who knows how bright you've been my friend since 1988 so i'm not going to dig through my texts where you told me that that you maybe weren't a fan of the coaching the last couple years with this guy well he has a name his name is brian it is brian keith is brian keith the coach of the year coach of what year one year from now is he the wizard coach in one year i don't want to say okay maybe that maybe that if they if joe house wins this he is if you and i win bill he's not maybe maybe the over under is the answer to that question i hope i'm wrong i feel bad about locking it i'm sorry i just can't believe this was one of the over-unders i couldn't believe it's like 35 wins this is 35 wins basically projecting that every positive thing possible could happen you could talk to me in the like 36 wins and that's davis playing like 70 games trey young suddenly being like you know a leader offensively which he just wasn't in atlanta forever the hard thing is it's it's 10 more wins than brooklyn it's 10 more wins in brooklyn this roster is 10 wins better than the brooklyn roster and i have real defensive questions too i know i get it sar and davis should be pretty a.j de bonta that is where you're going to start seeing the steals and blocks of that guy in fact you know just get ready to start betting steals and blocks de bonta those that's my player prop recommendation well the funny thing is the reason i i vacillated on this before i said it on the lock and they're going to be that four to ten range and i think there's gonna be a lot of distance between them the 11th playoff team or they you know 10 11 so they might actually care about the last couple weeks because why not you know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know it's like we we might we're in the range you need to be anyway all right the recap last chance to lock something down nicks under 51 and a half. All three of us agreed on that. No sign of disrespect to the Knicks because we think they are one of the, the handful of teams that can win the finals Celtics over 51 and a half house. And I locked it down. Zach did not, but he has the over Philadelphia 49 and a half under, under for me and Zach over for house Toronto, 46 and a half over, over for me and Zach under for house. Brooklyn 24 and a half, three unders and yet no locks. Nobody wants to lock this. It's too low. Okay. Cleveland Cavaliers, 48 and a half, three over Zach locked it. Detroit 47 and a half confusing. I went slightly under Zach went over with a lock house went over. Indiana 44 and a half. Sure. You don't want to lock this sack. Nope. Try lock. Triple lock. No try lock. All right. House and I are locking that one down. Three overs though. Chicago 29 and a half, three unders. Let me, I want to intervene. Yep. I want to lock in that Chicago under tasty. Yeah. I'm going to get on that. I want to make sure I have seven locks. I need an odd number of blocks. Now you're making me jealous that I should have locked it. It's not too late. Yeah. Why are they going to win 30 games? If I have Washington winning 35 or 30, 36 games and Chicago can't win 30. How about that? Can't have it. I'm going to stay away. Milwaukee 25 and a half, three unders for us. Miami 44 and a half. Zach and I have locked this down and house is not Orlando 43 and a half, three overs Atlanta 43 and a half under, under for me and Zach over for house. That seems to be the most disagreement. I'm going to, uh, double down on the disagreement only. I want to have an under lock. I'm going to lock Atlanta under 43 and a half. Wow. Charlotte over for me. 37 and a half. You guys went under Washington 34 and a half. I locked it down as an under Zach went under house went over. And that's what we had. Quick question. What is the highest wind total in the East? Do you think? Do you think we'll get in the teens with anybody with these new rules? I don't. I mean, I, I, I picked Sacramento over 20 and a half. So I have nobody in the teens. I think 22, 23, something like that would be the lowest one. I think somebody gets 20 in the East. Somebody goes 20 and 62. I could see the Clippers ending up around 20. Yeah. Tylo leaves in like December. It's like Tylo has had enough. He's resigned. There's no place he'd rather be than the Clippers. He said that he did say, that's what you said. There's no press conference. There's no place he'd rather be. I could be Hawaii at a beachside bar sipping a margarita. No, no, no. I want to coach Brandon, Brandon Ingram's partially torn Achilles. Niederhauser. He loves Niederhauser. Who doesn't? He loves coaching Brooke Lopez and you're 38. Well, there was no place I'd rather be than with you guys doing over unders for, I don't know. This was five hours. Zach Lowe. Pleasure as always. Great to see you. Joe house. Yeah. We did it. Amazing. Thanks to Chris this time, plus Cahal and Eduardo and Jack Wilson back at Spotify. Zach, when's your next podcast? Thursday. We have a Stan Van Gundy and then we're going to have a little mini Lakers preview with Dan Wiggy. Oh, nice. That's great. And then your fingers are working this week too. They are. We got league pass rankings coming out in dribs and drabs. I think we're going to do five parts, six teams a day spread out till tip off. I can't remember the exact schedule. Great. Congrats on getting the fingers going. Don't forget. Any inspiration you feel in any, a little bit. I thought I loved your first post. I thought it was inspiring talking about writing forces you to interrogate things a little bit harder. I think with that constantly, I feel like I'm not interrogating things enough. Like the wizards, 34 and a half over under. I feel like if I, if my fingers are really working, I would have interrogated that a lot more violently. Um, house pleasure. Thank you. We'll be together. Thanks everybody. I'll be back Thursday on this podcast as well. See you, Zach. See them on the way. So I don't have a few years with them. On the way side. Opt-in required bonus. Issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.finder.com. I'll see you next time. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.