NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

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And it's with FanDuel. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. The Bill Simmons podcast is presented by the Ringer Podcast Network where you can find the Zach Lowe Show with Zach Lowe, who's remote today, as well as Joe House, who you can find on Ringer Wiseguys, as well as Fairway Rowland. And House and I have been doing over-unders. I don't even remember the first time my podcast started ESPN in 2007. And I think we started to do an NBA over-unders at least that decade. And we've been doing it ever since. And we're about to do the West first, then the East. Wanted to mention new rewatchables went up yesterday. We did Friday the 13th. Zach has never seen it because he doesn't like horror movies. Stop it. Stop it. I have seen it. And I look forward to the rewatchables about it. It's been a while, though. Not a Jason movie. I don't know what Jason does in that movie, but I know it involves kids at a campsite somewhere. Yep, it sure does. And we should also mention. Speaking of kids in a campsite, Zach Lowe is writing again. He's got content for kids on a campsite. Look at that. The fingers work. It's back. He's showing us. The low-post newsletter, blog, filings. What do you want to call it? It's a newsletter. And do I regret it already? Maybe a little bit, but it's too late now. We're going. We're going to give it a shot. The League Pass rankings are coming up in five parts in the next week or so. So we're off and running, baby. Let's go. I love that you're going to take it easy on yourself and then just decide to do the opposite. Well, we're going to spam it. We're going to spam it early and then let's settle into the season. Both spam it early, get people a little taste, and then off and running. Okay. Well, usually Zach would have come here, but he couldn't come here this week. He had family obligations. But thanks to modern technology, look at this. We're here. We're in HD. The house and I are here. Zach's on a TV. He missed some stew. We had stew this week. I don't want to hear about the. Yeah, we had some stew. My wife is away, so we're just ordering in. So I had nothing as good as stew. What is the homemade stew that you had? So we're doing the West first. The East is more fun. We're going to save that for second. The East includes a lot of drama, too many playoff teams, and the house is wizards, along with my Celtics and the NBA champion Knicks. The West, which we'll get into in a second, is part of a bigger theme I want to talk about really quickly. It's something House mentioned earlier about this next title and what this means for the season itself. So I wrote back, like going back to 84, 84 finals, Celtics, Lakers, and then that next season, there was just a lot of energy around it, right? Jordan was in the league, Magic versus Bird, the Sixers were still around. It's just like, where are we going? Where are we going? 1991, MJ wins the title, beats Magic, and then that next year, same thing. How far, where's this Jordan thing going? What do we have in store? The Pistons are there. The Nixons are there. 2000 finals, Shaq, Kobe, they win. Is this going to be good? Is this going to be a dynasty? Are they going to control the decade? What does Tim Duncan have to say about all this? And just felt like there was energy going into that year. 2010 finals, Kobe's won back to back. LeBron has gone to Miami. We have a potential lockout coming. We have all of these young stars that are coming into the league. We're just excited heading into 10-11. And then I think this season qualifies as well, the 26 finals where we have Jalen Brunson, you know, becoming a guy. Getting the monkey off their back. And then we have a league where it feels like, I don't know, 15 teams feel like they have a chance to make the finals. So do you feel the energy, Zach Lowe? I haven't been this excited for a season in quite a while. I have already blown past my personal record of longest time watching preseason basketball. I'm diving in. I'm dabbling. I'm flipping between games, depending on what team is playing like a semi-real lineup. I can't wait for opening night at Madison Square Garden against the Sixers. It's going to be absolutely bonkers. Is it going to be the most expensive regular season game? I don't know, ever. I mean, what even compares to this? It's going to be insane. Yeah, we have, and we have the Luka gets his own team. We have the Spurs potentially as villains. We have OKC trying to get back on the horse. We have Jokic trying to protect this incredible era he had. We have Durant trying to basically get shit together for his last year. We have the Philly situation. We have Giannis of Miami, Tatum with his own team. You could just keep going. And going house, what's your favorite thing? A big picture about this season before we get into the West. It's, it's definitely already the drama around the Knicks and the, you know, capacity for that team to defend its title. I mean, I, I, I know we're about to sit here and spend 11 and a half hours going through the regular season, going over every single team in, in, but I'm ready for the playoffs already. I want to start. I wish I'd like to fast forward. There's a small part of me that I just want to see Boston and Philadelphia and this New York Knicks team. I want to see Oklahoma city. I want to see what becomes of Minnesota. And I want to see them all in the high leverage playoff context, but the rich tapestry of the regular season awaits us. And to the point that, that Zach just made the, the anticipations at an all time high, all time in my experience, like, there was no off season, the influx of talent by way of that draft class and the way that the summer league went and draft Zach just said it, these pre-season games are nuts. People are dying to get into the pre-season games. There's there's great crowds for these pre-season games. It's been phenomenal. Jalen Brunson's on Saturday night live. I mean the, the, the cultural icon that is Jalen Brunson and this next team propelling us right in. I mean, let's go, let's go. - Lamello ball has made the Timberwolves from moving. Moody to happy. - Moody to giddy. - We traded moody for giddy. They only traded two guys. So, and I'm guessing Nas Reed wasn't the moody one. Ooh. Okay. We're gonna start with the Southwest. We should mention with the over-unders, there's an incredible, incredible, incredible variable this year that we have no idea how to calculate and it is the new tanking rules. We're basically the bottom three teams will have two ping pong balls instead of three. Four through 10 will have three. And then after that, it, uh, I don't even know what the rules are after that, but we will not have tanking in the same way we did. We had tanking for 30% of last season. We had nine teams that did not care by mid February. And this year, I'm not sure how this plays out. Zach Lowe. Have you, did you factor that into your overrunners? - I think if you had asked me the same question, you asked house, like, what are you most excited about the season other than the obvious headline teams that the players that have changed teams, to be honest, I think people are even underestimating what a sea change this is going to be in the NBA. Like no one is going to be trying to lose on purpose. No one is going to be sitting guys for random games in February and March. In fact, it's the opposite. The bad teams, the worst teams have an incentive to try to beat up on each other to get out of the bottom three. And then you have all these other complications we're going to talk about eventually when we get to the seams of like, well, what if a team doesn't control its first round pick? Does that sort of reverse the incentive? Is a little bit because they don't care where it falls or they don't want it to be the number one pick because you also can't get the number one pick two years in a row. And you want to be able to get it when it's your turn to actually use your pick. - And what if you're, what if you're 11th and you have no chance in the playoffs? Are we going to see a high end tank, which we've never seen before? Like if you're golden state, you have your 30 and 40 with 12 games left. And it's like, ah, what are we doing? Anything? Probably not. Hey, Steph. How about some golf? Can we send you to New Zealand? - I don't think you have to ask Steph twice. - Southwest, San Antonio. We're kicking off with them. They made the finals last year. Not sure if you guys saw. They are a 60 and a half is the over under for them. They won 62 games last year. They went from 22 to 34 to 62. Last 30 games last year, they were 26 and four house. - Yup. - They are a, for the conference, plus one 45 for the title plus two 70, one seed. - Wow. That's a lot of money. - Yeah. - Yup. 140 my big question for you Zach Lowe yeah would the Spurs have been better off just not making the finals last year in what sense like too much too soon was it productive for them to go through that whole experience that seemed to rip some scabs and raise some questions that maybe wouldn't have been there if they just had a feel good lost in seven in OKC absolutely not they made the finals they lost they felt pain they felt like right away what it's like to be on the biggest stage Victor Webanyama somehow became a villain like overnight my daughter my 11 year old daughter referred to him just yesterday over over dinners we were talking about the NBA as the jerkasaurus that's her new nickname for him so she's all in on Wemby how does he not come up with that house jerkasaurus you need the mind look Wemby's ready and so if Wemby's ready and the young guards looked pretty ready other than Steph Castle is turnoveritis in the middle of the playoffs particularly against Minnesota I think no harm no foul like what's the hold up let's go I think I agree with that but where do you stand house I definitely agree with that I mean the part of the narrative of last season's playoffs was a lot of us old heads saying yes this San Antonio Spurs story is cool and yes they look absolutely loaded but let's see them in some high leverage situations and that Minnesota series kind of gave us that original that indication like okay welcome to the playoffs they ran their way right through Portland no problem but welcome to the playoffs with this cast of characters and they were up to the challenge I mean the games that San Antonio lost were Wemby missing the games half the game because of the foul don't forget about two historic choke jobs don't forget about all the Harper Fox stuff that came out of that series well I mean don't forget about Keldon Johnson by the end of the playoffs basically being unplayable like I do think there are more questions that you're talking about the seasoning of the Spurs though yeah and that I think you know net net that's all extremely positive for the development of that core I don't think the Keldon Johnson thing was positive I don't know what I didn't feel like he was playable in the finals and I think the Fox thing is a big referendum of where he's going to be and it's probably the thing to watch how do they I talked last week on my pod you have to Zach about if Harper is just be if this becomes a 1999 Kobe situation with Harper but they basically can't keep him on off the floor what does that lead with the decisions they make at the end of these games they just play three guards at the end of games is it three guards with Tobias Harris so we haven't mentioned yet or do they just bench Fox at the end of games and just brace for him being unhappy I mean more options with talented players seems like a good problem to have I don't know how well the three guard lineup will really fit Mitch Johnson did not want to play it much last season right I think he'll probably just have to play it more this season to get Harper on the court more Tobias Harris is not a big player to me I mean that's the antidote to Keldon Johnson being unplayable as you put it in the finals is like a way better version of that exact player more talent on hand Harrison Barnes is still here as a safety net like everyone's back and they added Tobias Harris who was like a 20 point a game scorer for a hot minute for the Pistons in the playoffs so I think I think they're I think they're ready I think last year was good for them I see no downside yeah I agree with that unplayable too is the other thing we learned yeah but you're just describing a particular matchup in the finals like it's not linear we're not going from the finals to game one of the regular season trying to win the finals again what were they're trying to do is build a team that survives this 82 game schedule and is ready for next season's postseason and that will include experimentation it'll include versions of these players that weren't available Fox was hurt Fox was hurt the whole playoffs and in the finals and his effectiveness was definitely diminished but if he's in you know combinations of players they can experiment they're good enough to experiment and still kick ass all season long and I think that's that's what we'll see like I'm not prepared to bite down hard on anything that we saw from the the OKC matchup or the Knicks matchup and say well this is this is the challenge that's in front of the Spurs no I think that they're it's organic and they will experiment they learn some lessons and that's why the seasoning was so important the biggest challenge for them is going to be what they faced in the final is the last five minutes of games and closing games who's going to have the ball who's going to create good shots and who's going to how they're going to finish stuff and my guess is that's Harper and honestly it might have been Harper last year and they just didn't really want to rip the bandaid off and just do it and that's that's my question what do you do when you're in the same situation we're in the finals last year against a really experienced team that knows what they're doing and you have a team that just has not enough reps with it yet LeBron or Tobias Harris you want to talk that out for 20 seconds should they have made a run at LeBron would he have even been interested if you're going to upgrade with a veteran why not go for LeBron would that have been bad for him would Wimby have not did you do any reporting on that Zach not really because it would never struck me as a real possibility that LeBron was going to consider it and I'm not you know I mean look you have like LeBron's better than Tobias Harris I mean he's he's an answer to the question that you're posing about who has the ball in crunch time as your lead decision maker you know are the Spurs the right team on their trajectory given their age to sort of upend everything for a year two years to take like a detour into LeBron world I don't know that they would really have been that that interested in doing it but I don't really know I heard they were not interested in even exploring it that wouldn't surprise me if it were true I'm fine with the Tobias Harris ad and all of these things are wonderful problems to have it is it worth noting that Darren Fox was the clutch player of the year like three years ago is he was supposed to be the answer to this question and I think in the beam back then and I think he will be part of the answer like I think we're letting an injury riddled and below average playoff run highlighted by one absolutely horrific decision at the end of game four when he went for the layup and he didn't have to I this is still a guy made the all-star team last year and he's not like a scrub that is on the way out of the league yeah so that's the glass half full case is Darren Fox with a chip on his shoulder that's the glass Darren Fox with a chip on his shoulder Harper a year older Castle a year older and then Wemby now having tasted his own blood and going on a mission well I don't know what would be on a mission what does that look like that that to me is the I don't know what does it look like he's already he seems feisty already this year he's like not he was not talking to anybody he's good he seems pissed off about everything which I like that's the reason that there was never a serious consideration of LeBron they have their own circus they have their Wemby circus they're very comfortable with their Wemby circus they do a great job managing the Wemby circus they go around stadium to stadium and everybody wants to come see the phenomenon that is Wemby and by extension this Spurs team and they can live inside that skin and Tobias Harris fits in we have a lot of circuses this year we sure do there's a Philly circus comes to town yeah the OKC we have the Lucas circus we have Giannis of Miami there's a lot of circuses all right 60 and a half instinctively I wanted to just say oh that's that's an over and then you just start factoring how deep the league is and that there are no easy wins where did you go in this sack I get to lead off thank you it's a big number they won 62 last year in the league that as you mentioned was super watered down I do think they benefit a little bit from the West being a shallower conference in the east I mean that your schedule doesn't tilt to your conference as much as people think it's still 52 and 30 but but that matters on the fringes a little bit and I just think like I just think they're significantly better them and Oklahoma City than the next tier of teams below them in the West and forget about the next teams below that so I I despite you know the new tanking rules and that wins are going to be harder to come by across the board they were 35 and 15 a against above 500 teams last year that's a number that I look at a lot for this purposes like how real was your season or how how much were you just beating up on the drags I think they're hungry they're deep they have arguably the best player in the league I went over despite the fact that it's a huge number in a deep deep league overall and a good conference I went over I am going to predict house's answer go ahead I'm a slight over and he's going to do this I'm not go ahead house I'm not doing that and I might not do it the entire 11 and a half hours just about a 0.5 whiff of an over they're over and there are wins to consume in the West because there are teams that won mid 40s you know low 40s mid 40s in the West that I don't think are anywhere near that this upcoming season so I think that they will hoover up some of those wins and I just think that the experience of of making it to the finals for this group and especially what it meant in terms of the element of the depth for that team they're loaded and I have no problem at all going over I'm a slight over I always worry about the Wembley injury potential just because he's super tall and you just never know he played 71 46 and 64 were his three games played seasons that's fair I mean I just want to point out that you made fun of house for going slight over and you just led with not deadpan like I'm going slight over slight over I think they're in this. 61 to 62. Okay. That's a win. One seed plus one 40. I actually think they will not be the one seat, but the number I kept looking back at their last 30 games last year, 26 and four. And even if you're throwing in some tanking teams, that's still 22 and you know, 22 and seven, 22 and eight. Yeah. And they're going to be all year older and better. And I liked the Billy Donovan ad too. I thought that was good. They really, they lost Kelly Olenek. They added Tobias Harris. That's all they did. Those two things. And we didn't even mention, we didn't mention Carter Bryant, who I think I I'm just intrigued by him as a little, little toy for them. That's an example of the point I was trying to make about the depth. He got genuine playoff minutes, real highest leverage possible minutes. And that's really good for where he is in his career. Terrace Reed jr. Also getting like every single, every single rebound in the preseason. I'm just, I'm putting it in my back pocket is like if I need a third center for whatever reason, like this guy looks like he's ready to stop up some minutes. I think the bigger point we'll get to when we talk about, okay, see is there's two teams that are just way more talented than all the other teams and to not go over with either of them, I think is pretty foolish. All right. So we are all over for that one. Next one. No locks by the way. Nobody wants to lock that down. I'm going to say lock it at 60 and a half. Yeah. I'm sitting tight for a minute. The Houston rockets. We're over under is 48 and a half. Spend some action on that. Zach low. It's been a little bumps. It's been going up five to one for the vision. 14, one for the conference, 27 and one for the title last year, there are 52 and 30. They are bringing back Fred Van Vliet. They added Marcus smart. They added Bruce Thornton and most important, they added bearded Reed Shepard bearded Reed Shepard. I don't, he just looks like he's the young dad in a horror movie that moved into the house. And then, and then he starts going into the attic and there's evil spirits up. There is just kind of a more dangerous vibe. I like it. Yeah. I think he might've needed facial hair more than just about any player in the league. Very excited for him. Um, my big question, I'll start with you on this one house. Okay. Could any star flip his career legacy more than Durant? If he carried the rockets to the finals this season. Wow. I'll give you some other possible legacy flipping stars. Go ahead. Nicola Yoka winning a second title. Joel had beat making a pass around to Jason Tatum, carrying a Boston team to the one seat and back to the finals. Yannis rehabilitating, rejuvenating Miami and dragging them to the finals. LeBron in Philly throwing the Sixers on his back or the one thing that will never happen, but I have to mention it anyway, James Harden finally figuring out in year 28 and carrying the caps to a finals. Uh, poor James Harden. What would be the biggest? Legacy flip out all those guys for you. It's it's to me, it's Embiid even though, cause you've given up on his legacy. Well, and, and he's never been to a conference finals like that. There, there's no legacy. He is, he will, you know, until he actually makes it to an NBA finals, it'll be promise unfulfilled with that guy and a league MVP to never make a conference finals or a finals. What's your answer, Zach? Well, I'll throw out some other names for you. You didn't mention Luca. What if the Lakers are way better? Than expected. And he actually gets his first MVP after being like among the preseason favorites for five or six years. And I'm just going to say, like, I'm just going to say it. What if, what if the Raptors make the finals again with Kawhi Leonard? What if Kawhi just has Toronto and then eight years later, another Toronto and all in between his planting trees and Boingo wireless and all this stuff, does he become like a, an honorary parliamentarian in Ontario by that point? So those are, those are, we just have to start a podcast talking about his leg. Legacy episode is the new legacy chapter. I am. I just want to say, I am encouraged and heartened that I looked at my timer. We, we got over 20 minutes before the L word was dropped on this podcast and I was in other spots too. There's going to be more legacy talk later. And I was happy that it was about Kevin Durant because I, I do think it's a weird thing to say about a top 12 all-time player. Who's a two-time finals MVP, but he does feel like he we've talked to Adelio about it. Yeah. He is a, a superstar in need of the right coda to his career. And I think this team, I don't know that anybody out of the West could make the finals other than the top two, unless there's a major injury, but this team has a chance to at least be a very feel good sort of coda this year for him. Yeah. We have three punchers chance. If a bunch of things go right West teams that I think could make it. And this is one of them Durant since the 2018 finals, how many playoff games do you think he's played house since what year? Since he went down, in the I'm sorry in the 2019 finals. So he played with Brooklyn and played in a bunch of playoff Phoenix and Houston last year. Yeah. You're asking how many playoff games has he played in? I'll give you the answer. 32. Okay. I would've guessed in the twenties. He's had two playoff series wins in the 2020s. He has 17 straight years of 25 points a game. Yep. 17. Yes. All timer. He is. He's played over 50,000 minutes combined regular season playoffs, which makes him one of 23 guys ever. And if he has a pretty normal season, he'll be in the top 12 for that. And Zach is right. There's no coda for everything that's happening here. This is just kind of drifting along. I will say this team got rid of Finney, Smith, a Koji and Jeff green and added healthy Fred VanVleet, Marcus smart, Bruce Thornton and bearded Reed shepherd. I'm going to say it again. And they're just going to be better. The vibes are going to be better at, they have actual guards. They can run an offense. You can't just drive by the return of Steven Adams. You have to mention Steven and the healthy Steven Adams. You should have mentioned that as well. For as long as he's healthy, a healthy Steven Adams is crucial to the scene. Hey, Zach. Yeah. They have some draft pick shit that they can fuck around with here. That's, that's another variable that you got to consider with all these teams. Who's got the assets to make a wind now trade, or who wants to be a seller and who would be motivated either way. They do. They can do whatever they want. I would like, as we do at our house to Institute a, everyone hands their phones over at the door. When we come to the practice facility policy for the rockets, but put them in a little cubby or something. How many phones does Katie have to turn in? All of them. Does he get patted down? He has a Google pixel. He, so they have a Brooklyn swap pick that could be super tasty, right? That could end up being the number one pick in the draft for, all we know. They also have an unprotected Phoenix pick and Phoenix will, we'll get to them, but they'll, you know, they're going to be somewhere between 35 and 45 wins, but they, they have capital. They have a couple expirings and things to do. They have shepherd who I think would have interest being bleeds on and expiring. So they could make some moves. I factored that into my over of 48 and a half. I think to me, this is a pretty, pretty easy over. I'd be really surprised that this team didn't get into the 49 to 53 range. Yeah. I can't come up with the, the scenario. I'm actually just confused by this number. They won 52 games last season. They're regular season merchants. I mean, he may, even with the enormously confusing effort to replace the point guard position last year, after FVV got hurt in the summer and not getting to soon, Mu or Colby, Wade and all those guys were available. And the super weird end of game stuff where it was like, they were playing hot potato. I never understood it. I never, I never understood why Katie wasn't just the guy posing games out. Even with that, they won 52 games because the roster is mother effing good and it got better. So it's an over for me and I'll go ahead and just say it out loud. It's a lock. It's an overlock. This number was like 47 and a half until people started jumping into the market. I am a locking it down to Zach. The only, the only case against it is the offense with Fred VanVleet back and a healthier roster. And all that is still amounting to like, all right, there's eight on the shot clock. Can Alper and Shen goon like snowplow to the rim and throw something up and we can rebound it. But I would like to make it universal. This is an official lock over for me. No doubt about it. 48 and a half is too low. The rockets are going to win a lot of games. I, and the other thing we mentioned earlier, but the west just isn't good enough, right? And then there's really only five teams I like in the west. So I, I just feel like if you look at the history of the league and the standings and basketball reference, anytime we have like a top heavy conference, it's usually going to be in the high forties. And I will add the addendum to my only case against it being the offense looking that way is if it does look like, like that, I think there's like, is there some, you may do okay. Noise 20 games into the season. What does that do? What does that do? Is it a hot seat, hot seat, noise or crock pot noise? I can't remember. Which is worse. The crock pot is, is better, right? For the coaches. It's simmering for a little bit. I think hot seat noise, but I don't think, I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to be an elite defensive team and elite rebounding team and a good enough offensive team. So that's lock it up. Kevin Durant's on this team. His team's never have coaching issues. Dallas Mavericks. They're over under 33 and a half. They're plus two 50 for the playoffs. Plus 1 35 for the play in house. Their 2027 draft pick goes to Charlotte unless it falls into the top two, which is conceivable. Because they could be in the four 10 range win the lottery or finish second and get to keep the pick they have new coach named dusty may we'll go into college stuff in a second they were 26 and 56 last year there were 7 and 23 in their last 30 the big question zach low what if cooper flag becomes the greatest start of the year at 19 year old nba player we've ever had for just that season yeah this was one of the toughest this was one of the toughest lines for me and you know mahoney and i were talking about this team yesterday we said but like kairi's back he looks he looks very good in the pre is one preseason game that i've seen him play um one would assume there'll be some rust coming off an acl maybe they'll they'll give him days off now and then but still it's been 18 months since the acl though or maybe even 19 months yeah so he might be 100 if they if they have two of the top 25 players in the league is that not going to be a problem i think it's going to be a problem i think it's going to be a problem i think it's going to be a problem i think it's going to be a problem i think it's going to be a problem and is it just everything after that is just over complicating a discussion because i do think cooper flag is going to be that this season he keeps growing i guess he'll shoot better he's just an awesome awesome basketball player the context of this roster is a little better for him with kairi around to take some of the ball handling load to be an elite elite elite off ball shooter when flag has the ball the rest of it's a little mucky i'd feel really really good if like i knew anything about derrick lively's prognosis at all i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know at all and i i don't but that the case for the over is just is it just as simple as two of the top 25 guys play on one team that's generally like a 500 team and even beyond that if you look at the 24 mavs blueprint that made the finals two elite offensive players some fun role players and just just kind of in games every night and then able to take stuff in the last five minutes it feels like a playing team in the house it feels like an easy two for one or three for one trade partner because you look at all the stuff they have like you know morris johnson's gonna be i think good right away for them they still have pj washington they still have naji marshal they got aldama they rolled the dice with risha shea they have max christie they have a lot of wings they do they have two centers and if kairi plays 70 games you know i i find it hard to believe they're not going to win 34 but it comes back to flag because he was 23 7 and 5 last year and he's going to be a good guy and he's going to be a good guy and he's going to be a good guy and if you're just talking about best guys heading into a 19 year old season it's basically luca and lebron and wimby are the three that put up like pretty crazy stats when they were teenagers for at least half the year so if he's 27 7 and 7 this year basically lebron season which i think is possible you said 27 points a game he's 23 last year my goodness yeah but i mean that was end of season 50 he's gonna have the ball a bunch all right let's give him 25 7 and 7 that makes me feel better um and i don't know why they would necessarily tank because there's there's no tanking in the same way and if anything they want to be in the 4 to 10 range so why wouldn't this be an over i was super relieved to hear zach say that this number gave him a hard time because this is exactly the way i changed my pick five times um i think that dusty may doesn't want to show up and they didn't hire dusty may to come in and lose games right they're going to try and win and there's too many they're too deep there's too many professional basketball players now the well not only too deep but they have a guy who's going to really give a shit every night in cooper flag yeah he's at the stage and he just wants to prove that he's really good at basketball night after night and isn't the the version of kairi that's in kairi's own best interest the version that is helping set up cooper to be the best version of cooper the guy that is a tremendous facilitator a leader right well you mentioned this on the pod yesterday with mahoney this team could barely get into an offense they for the first two months of the season they were using flag almost to just like take all your lumps now it'll all pay off for you down the road and now they have like a real guy who will be able to dribble the ball up and get into sets and all kinds of things and this i gotta say i'm kind of excited to watch them too i want to see flag and kairi together uh i want to mention the college coach curse though oh yeah last really good successful i came in right away and was good at coaching was brad stevens that was 2013 where he just came in it was like oh this guy has it donovan came in and took over an experienced okc team that was 2015 and quinn steiner came in in 2014 and did okay but we've also had john calipari we had rick patino we had tim floyd we had your guy leonard hamilton oh man who i think was the worst wizards coach of your lifetime since i've known you it's not on him lon krueger mike montgomery we had mike dunlap going from loyal america to the bobcats fred hoiberg the immortal fred and we had john beeline who was our last college to pro coach in 2019 this has not happened for seven years and there's a reason for it because this league's really good and it's really deep and there's a lot of talent and it's always good to have like you'd much much rather have like a sean sweeney who's been in the war who's gone against all these dudes who has a reservoir of other people and you know to just come in blind to this zach what are what are you hearing on this i think you know the buzz on dusty may is all good there is a learning curve no question about it they drafted one of his players in merez johnson jr it's not my biggest concern i think a coach is a coach is a coach i mean you're going back way way back with some of those names that that failed transitioning to the nba it has been a while since john beeline remember the story about john beeline calling his naming his plays after animals and the and the players laughing at that zebra zebra and panda bear uh i don't worry about the dusting factor i worry about derrick lively and i worry about the the a lot of the supporting cast you mentioned i like a lot a lot of them play more or less the same position and the shooting is iffy and just like we like the top two guys a lot the drop off to the third best guy on the team is like pretty severe and so that's the that's the downside of all the depth is like who's the third guy uh i think this is actually a really really tough line i i was a little bit surprised how much i struggled with it so where'd you go i'm gonna i think zag um from you guys and go under by this teeniest teeniest teeniest of hairs i don't feel good about it i wouldn't bet it uh 33 and a half it feels it feels low to go under you i think you actually nailed the tanking incentive i think they actually are incentivized not to tank to try to get their pick into the best possible position to be the one or two pick and keep it but i think i just have to hedge against some possibility of a kairi sell high trade to a contender at some point in the season i don't know if that'll happen i don't think there's any plans to do it currently it just feels like something that's going to be potentially in the ether so i gotta hedge against that i'll take the under what do you think patrick dumont wants to do but as he's assessed this and analyzed it one of the more awkward looking owners to ever just populate the nba sit in court side i was proud of him for giving an interview i think to the athletic this week in which he just did did not embarrass himself i thought that was a step in the right direction it's always good when somebody running a team you're psyched that they didn't embarrass themselves but i i don't feel great about this pick i couldn't be higher on cooper flag i like a lot of the fringe moves they made in the off season i still am going to take the under i don't feel good about it i don't feel good about it i don't feel good about it i don't feel good about it house oh don't change your pick don't be a coward i already wrote it down it's an over i'm gonna play i'm not gonna say that this this this this this it's so close but 34 wins is attainable i am a slight over because uh i think kairi is incentivized to have a really good season he has a player option next year for 42 but if he plays well this season that could end up being high 40s maybe even low 50s for two years and he hasn't played basketball in a year and a half i like the stuff i've heard about him um it seems like his head's in a good spot and i think it's going to be really fun to watch him in flag but that the big thing to me this is a bet on flag i just think this guy has a chance to be really special and the history of the league is if somebody's really special even even at a young age they're going to start dragging you to some wins and that's difference between 30 and 35 i have them in the mid 30s the bill simmons podcast is brought to you by fanduel we are spending this two-part extravaganza trying to figure out what we actually believe with this nba season who's winning the title who's the best mvp pick which teams are going over which teams are going under which predictions are we going to pretend we never made by february fanduel has a reward stack built exactly for all these questions and thoughts you get a stack of rewards to use on nba futures so while we're sitting here and talking ourselves into teams and out of teams for the rest of the show you can make your future picks along with us on fanduel you can put your reward stack to work on nba futures with fanduel so check it out in the fanduel app make this your most rewarding season ever 21 plus select states are 18 plus dc or wyoming restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat connecticut a team everyone's too high on the Memphis Grizzlies over 30 and a half playoffs plus 420 playing plus 200 they do not oh they have uh their own pick plus the second best first of utah minnesota and cleveland they were 25 57 last year but they were 7 and 33 in the last 40 and uh the big question question, Joe house, because Zach and I have already talked about this team on our podcast. Is everyone too high on this team? Is the bandwagon too filled? All the basketball pod people, all the nerds. This has just become a sexy, sexy, sexy lottery team. Basically. What do you think? So the market reflects the sentiment that you're sharing. This was in the 28 and a half range. It went up two wins. It's all the way up to 30 and a half. And I think we've reached peak market on this team because I look at this roster. I know what they're going to do, which is they, they have a roster that is going to play hard as hell and they are going to try and win all of their home games because they, the Memphis and Utah, you know, very quietly under the radar because they were tanking the last couple of years, tremendous home court advantages that the fans in those two cities are really, you know, passionate and do that. The team does respond to You're just taunting Russell Westbrook right now. I just don't know if I can get there, even with all of the proper enthusiasm for Boozer. How is this team going to score? And is Zach Eady going to finally play 65 games? So he's the swing guy. Yeah. If he plays 20 games, this isn't under. If he plays 65 games, I think it's an over. West playoff locks for me. Zach, OKC, San Antonio, Denver, Minnesota, and Houston. And then we'll have a Pacific team, TBD. And there's this next group here where we're going to have two playoff teams from this group. It's going to be, let's say the Lakers are the Pacific team. Phoenix, Dallas, Portland, Golden State, Memphis, and Utah. We will have two playoff teams out of that group. My guess is Memphis is going to play hard and be frisky for a while before they decide what to do. but I think the dudes they have on this team are all going to give a shit. Even like I talked, I went on a group chat two weeks ago and I was talking like they just kind of ended up with Jeremy Grant and you go, Oh man, Jeremy Grant, bad contract. It's like he averaged 19 a game last year. He's a real player. They turned Caldwell Pope into Jeremy Grant. That's an upgrade. They had a cam boozer. Who's going to be 19 and 10 every night who can, you can run offense room. You can go to him and crunch time. They added Isaiah Stewart for basically nothing. They're going to have size toughness. I don't love the point guards obviously, because they really don't necessarily have a starting point guard. They have tied Jerome and Pippen, but there's a toughness and a grit and grind old school throwback feel that I just, I got seduced by. So for me, it's an over 30 and a half. What do you, what do you have Zach? I would, I'd like to apologize for, I think contributing to the start of the Memphis Grizzlies hype train, if not actually starting it like two months ago by saying, when it was 28 and a half, I would just absolutely hammer the over. I think this team is going to be on your Zig. I'm not, I'm Zogging. I think you're not a term you would do. They're, they're like 18 deep. They had to wave guys like farewell, D'Angelo Russell to just, just get the roster in order. They're going to be super annoying to play against. Edie is a complete game changer when he plays. I don't know when he'll play. I couldn't be higher on cam boozer as like an immediate win. Now, high impact rookie. He was the guy I knew you were going to love heading into the easy. He's a total Zach low guy. And then I watched their first couple of preseason games, including a win over the Hawks. And I was like, Ooh, there really is just like a lot of Ty Jerome happening. And when there's a lot of Ty Jerome happening, it's a lot of like floater floater on the way down, leaning floater, tilting floater. And they go in at a crazy rate, at least until the playoffs. Cause Ty Jerome is really good, but you nailed the shot creation. Issue from the perimeter that I think they're going to run into. And just like, is there a top 50 player in the NBA on the team? I think boozer in Edie, like, like one of them being available all the time. It could be, could be a facsimile of that, but you know what? Sometimes you got to own your own words. I just feel like they're going to be deep and annoying and have a good home court advantage. And they're going to make up for a lot of these deficits in, in different ways. I like East low as a coach. Fuck it over 30 and a half over. Fuck it. What do I, what do I have to lose? Nothing. Zach Lowe over Bill Simmons over Joe house. I'm not going against Verno. I can't do it. Verno and Memphis deserve a team of analysis. Is that, well, you, I'm not going against Verno is your analysis. I offered my opinion at the top. I mentioned the home court advantage. I mentioned the depth and, and that they, I think role identity wise are a team that I solo wants. This is like the version of, of you know, roster, construction. And you guys mentioned some of the crucial additions. I like the Quentin post edition just as a 10th man. Right. And if Lopez gives them anything. And they, they have prepared pretty as well as you could possibly prepare for like, all right, Edie is probably going to miss 30 games and play 22 minutes a game. When he plays, let's stock up on big guys. Boozer can play some five for them. I, I'm, I think we are a little over our skis, but I will still take the over. And I do, I do think it's worth asking like, what does it over mean for Chris? What is Vernon's legacy? If we're going to talk about legacy talk, I mean, what's Verno's legacy to this point? What, what are his 25 job ranchers? He's on eBay right now. I mean, for his legacy. Listen, if we had the old tanking roles, this would be an under for me. Just point blank. Sure. I think the new tanking roles and the fact that being in the four to 10 is desirable and where you want to be means all these teams are going to give a shit for a month and a half longer than they would have. So it's an over. I have a bonus question for you. Top five, 2027 teams, most likely to be in a massive, a massive brawl this season. Here are my rankings. Number one, Memphis. Why? Number two, Phoenix. Oh, interesting. Dylan Brooks just by himself. Thanks to number two. And bridges alongside of them. Number three, Detroit. Yep. Still Ron Holland. Ron Holland is still there. And he's upset that he's not in the top two. Number four, Orlando kind of get dickish in games. They'll get it. They'll get a little feisty. I don't think they want that. It's smoke though. Eh, they're a little dickish. And then, uh, number five, Houston, just cause Steven Adams is back. Draymond green would like a, would like a word here at some point. Just, just over overlooked again. Draymond green has Draymond Ben in a bench clearing brawl. Uh, I mean, if we're bench clearing, no, but like a five on five, like whatever happened in Charlotte, Detroit last year, has he been in his version of that? I feel like, no, I guess not. He usually kind of escalates it, but it never actually happens. Yeah. He escalated. It escalates to the point where he gets kicked out. And so there isn't any, any actual risk to him getting punched right in the face. Yeah. Memphis though. I mean, Edie boozer, Grant coward, and Jerome. That's just my kind of league past team, right? I get it. Isaiah Stewart, Wells, Spencer, who was really good last year. Pippen post Gigi Jackson. I like this team. This is a fun league past and over all three of us. All right. All right. Last but not least. And last but least the new Orleans Pelicans. 28 and a half is the over under they are a plus six 50 for the playoffs. Plus three 10 for the plan. 2027 draft pick. Kind of interesting. They could keep their pick or they can just switch it from walk his pick, which I would recommend right now. And then Atlanta somehow ends up with the worst of those two. They have a new coach, Jamal Mosley, who for some reason got snapped up right away after a very strange Orlando season, they were 20, six and 56 last year. Notable in their last 40 with nothing to play for it. Cause then I would pick, they went 17 and 23, which could give us a little foreshadowing of, uh, of where the league is going with the non tanking stuff. Um, they're going to start Missy Z Zion Murphy, Herb Jones, and Dejounte Murray. They're going to bring queen Bay, Matherin and fears off the bench. And the artist formerly known as Jordan pool. My, big question for you, Zach Lowe will Zion hold this team hostage for the entire 20 twenties. Is this just going to be like a kidnapping show on apple TV, but with a basketball player and a franchise, I mean, that would imply that he has the power and stature at this point in his career to hold any team hostage other than by being, as you put it in the Zion zone where he's too good to trade or, or too risky for a team too good to trade from New Orleans perspective, too risky to trade for, for another Bermuda triangle of NBA. It's the Zion zone. We can't give you up and nobody's offering anything for you. What do we do? He only has one more non-guaranteed year, partially guaranteed year left on his contract. So it can't, it can't last that long. And I do think, I don't know. I like literally have no idea what's going to happen with Zion. If he's just by inertia going to be on the Pelicans on like a $30 million a year, a year deal after this one expired, I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen to him. I tried to find like what pseudo contender actually makes sense is, is a, like this guy is a mid season trade acquisition for us. Or is it not a pseudo contender? Is it like a middle of nowhere going nowhere, middle of the road team? That's just like, screw it. We'll get, I have absolutely no idea. Yeah. Or I theorized two weeks ago that he would be the greatest six man of all time for the 2027 playoffs. You just get them. You have for eight minutes, a half, just come in. We're going to run our entire offense through and fuck the other team up. And then you're going to sit. The incredible thing with him last season, in addition, in addition to him playing 62 games last season, which is kind of incredible. How. Uh, infrequently he shoots from the mid range and three, the numbers are astonishing. All he does is he's a 60% shooter. Cause he just goes to the rim and goes to the rim and gets to the paint and goes to the rim. That feels pretty goddamn valuable in the modern NBA, this iteration of the NBA. If you thought you could get 60 games from him, I think there's a bunch of teams that would be interested and the price should be right. It's decent. Like 40 million. That's movable. You do have to send out real stuff just because of salary alone. In most cases, anyway, if you're, if you're a contender, if you're a good team, you're probably gonna have to send out good players to get him. And you know, part of the first half of this season will be like, do we have any faith that his durability last year was a real thing or was it a mirage? I do not. We've, this is our, uh, I don't know if you guys want to celebrate in any way, but it's our 25th new Orleans Hornets season. Year 25, the Hornets Pelicans, uh, when, when they started as the new Orleans Hornets, when they moved there. Got it. Can we take a, can we take a Spotify ringer road trip to new Orleans for like a good two game homestand? It's available. Go to Harrah's just to eat some food. Paris is one of my favorite places on the earth. I love going to New Orleans. What is the case against doing this in like a, you know, for me, for me in the Northeast for house on the East coast, let's go somewhere warm in December for a couple of games. I'll gather. What's the case against it? Sounds wonderful. Crab ball. Would you like to guess how many playoff series wins they've had since they became the new Orleans Hornets in the Oh two Oh three season? I will go with two. I feel, I agree. It's under five. It's two. Yeah. Yeah. I can, I know which ones they are. So that too, my big fear with this team, other than the new tanking rules, your big V up one big fear and the organization and the medical staff and the ownership, their franchise guy, I have no idea if he's going to play 60 games. This is just everybody on this team is in the trade machine at all times. And that's always a weird vibe for like, I guess fears would not be in the trade machine maybe and queen. And those are their two keepers. And then I'm prepared for anything else with any other guy. And also Deandre Jordan, who's just, I think he signed a seven year deal in the off season because of the Joe Dumars misunderstood the rules and then claimed afterwards that he didn't. So, uh, and I have this. I have this email from Alex in Florida who wants to know why we assume the NBA and Ted tanking rules will solve tanking because teams will want to be in that four to 10 zone in new Orleans is one of the teams. I wonder, are we going to have like a log jam of teams that want to be four to 10? Hmm. That's seven spots, but we might have 11 teams jockeying to be in those seven spots once we get to, uh, to March. Anyway, lottery. We level teams. If we go Sacramento, Dallas, new Orleans, Clippers, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Chicago, that's seven. There's three other teams that might just say, Oh, we had a couple of injuries. Fuck it. Right? Like Charlotte's an example. Charlotte's already had a couple of hamstring calf things. They could start out slow. Maybe they have one more injury in December and you know, they're 28 and 40 with 14 games to go and they might just say, fuck it. So just trying to factor that in. I mean, I don't know, I don't, I don't even know what to do with a team like new Orleans that does seem so poorly run to begin with. I don't know what to do. Uh, Zach, what do you have for this? Zachary Lerner: I will add to that, that again, I think it's, if a team has a real chance at a play in, I, I, it would be pretty unusual for them not to at least try. And the new tanking rules also give Adam silver even more latitude or make it clear that like, he's going to bring the hammer down on suspicious crap. Like, Oh, you took this guy out in the third quarter after he was healthy. Um, this is a 28 and a half. When I first saw this weeks and weeks ago, I thought, well, that's going to be an over like they just have too much talent on this team. The wing combination of herb Jones and Trey Murphy. That's a legit starting two, three, three, four, whatever on a good team. I am going to go under because I just think there are too many questions about who's going to be on the team long-term too many guys who are just defined by the need to have the basketball at all times and don't really know how to function without it. And, um, I mentioned the stat that I like to look at, you know, they played much better with Dejounte Murray when he came back briefly last year that I think they had a plus one and a half net rating, which for a 26 win team is a real thing. Then I went back and looked like, let's see who they played when Dejounte Murray was available. And it was mostly crap Ola. And to that point, this team was, let me find them nine and 45 against 500 or over teams last year and 17 and 11 against below 500 teams. I am going to, despite the fact that there's a lot of raw talent here, more than should be for a 29 when Tina, I'm going to go under. It's an under for me as well. Um, two observations. If there's any franchise in the entire NBA who unintentionally fucks up and find themselves in the relegation zone, this was a lead candidate. Like they don't have to try to tank. They don't have to do anything nefarious. They just have to be who they are. Oopsie. We're one of them. Yeah. Three words. There were new rules this year. Yeah. Um, the Jamal Mosley hiring is so curious. He I think would be an appropriate hire for culture setter, except for what culture are you trying to set with, with this group of guys, five of these guys make sense, more sense on, on teams other than this team. It's an under for me as well, because this team breaks one of my rent, many rules. If at least four of the guys. I think it's a good idea. Tip off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at MichelobUltra.com slash courtside. Michelob Ultra courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at MichelobUltra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance, and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24-7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. We're back and we're at a terrible pace. My fault. I had, who did I have? Dan Quinn organizing the rundown? What are you talking about? We're at a great pace. We started this whole goddamn show with how much America is dying for NBA basketball and we're sitting right here. Giving them basketball. Two of the greats and one big dummy giving America basketball. All right. Well, that was the most interesting division of the three. We're going to the Northwest, Oklahoma City. 61 and a half is the over. For the one seed there, minus 110 house. A bet that I have in bold because I do think they will be the one seed. They were 64 and 18 last year. Plus 130 conference. Plus 240 for the title. They lost. Lou Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins. And they added a day Mara, a die Mara, a day Mara, a die. I'm going to screw that up all season. I look forward to that. A die Mara. I'm just going to call Mara or the tall guy and Bennett starts. And, uh, all right. The big question was last year, just a crazy lightning in a bottle aberration lost to the Spurs, or is there a Wembley kryptonite issue with this team? Zach Lowe. Uh, I think somewhere in between, I mean, Wembley is going to be kryptonite for pretty much every offense in the NBA. One thing that would help, uh, defang that kryptonite would be to have all your secondary ball handlers healthy. And they did not have AJ Mitchell or Jalen Williams healthy for that series. So a little bit of both. I think, look there, I think they played 12 times last year and it was eight, four Spurs. Uh, that's a real thing. At that point, there's no question about it. Um, it's the best rivalry in the NBA. It's going to be even more interesting this season with particularly, like, I don't think they played till mid December, which is like, why, why do I have to wait so long? What I can't wait to see Chet Holmgren's response to seeing Wembley in his face again. I think it's going to be awesome, but I think it's a little bit of both, but, um, I would be a little more optimistic than just saying straight up. Uh, Wembley is the kryptonite and that's the end of the story. I agree with Zach Lowe. And I would even go further. I think last year was just a crazy, aberration. They didn't have their second best player. It was one of the best 15 guys in the league. Healthy really for most of the season house. They were 72 and 18 heading into the San Antonio series. They're over under 61 and a half. I don't see how they lose 20 games or more this season, even with the new tanking rules. I just can't get there. We have Rocky three Chet spent in the gym with Duke. He put on two pounds, two pounds. He put on two pounds. They have heart and Stein back. They have Mara. They have a healthy J dub. And I'm not that worried about the kryptonite thing. I went back over kryptonite teams in history, like the magic Lakers had the 86 rockets. And then we're very fortunate when that team completely fell apart. Shaq, Kobe Lakers sort of had Duncan Spurs. There were a couple of years there where Duncan could really take them toe to toe. Bird Celtics had the Pistons who they beat in 87, lost 88. Jokic Nuggets recently beat the Minnesota. I think it was a kryptonite team. That's a good one. Uh, Duncan Spurs had that one Zeebo Grizzlies era that just was Zeebo and Gasol were just a terrible matchup for them for a couple of years in a row. So this does happen. You didn't do MJ Pistons. I mean, they literally had the Jordan rules. I know, but he ended up kicking their ass and breaking up. It took a while. They beat his ass. It's a good one. I mean, they just were a way better team. Yes. So, uh, I think they're the favorite. Um, and I'm pretty bullish on them. How about you house? It's an over, it's a lock. I have no hesitation or reservation around it. Um, the aberration that you're describing is also to me, just regular old NBA variants guys get hurt. It is this, you know, modern world of the NBA. And I do wonder to one of the big theme observations Zach made at the top of the show. Playing hard and all of the, none of nobody's really incented to tank. Where are we gonna find the rest for these guys? Because there have been now these, um, studies backing up the notion that the players are running more, that the running is more intense that the, so we've been, yeah, we've been talking about this for a couple of years. We better be finding ways for these guys to, to get some rest, to go ahead and, and load manage. If we want the best versions of these teams to be available in the playoffs. Well, that's why they need Mara. It starts sorber. We're gonna have to see this year. Topesh guy. Great. Let's see them all. And then Jared McCain, who just fell into their laps last year, which was huge Mitchell be healthy. I just think they have a lot of options, looks lineups. They can give guys nights off. How intrigued on a scale of one to 10, were you at the Mara highlights in the preseason Zach? I don't think he's missed a shot yet. I, I, I watched a couple of their games and I was like, oh my God. I mean, look, it's preseason, right? But he's had multiple block on one end dunk on the other end sequences that are like, okay, this guy's like, he's gonna be something. He, he, he, he posted up a couple switches and like easy peasy hooks. Like he's gonna be able to play minutes for them. Um, the case he's at least not a bust. I think we could just tell from the preseason, this guy will be something. And I don't know if he's gonna be somebody who can play in the fourth quarter of a Spurs game four in San Antonio, but he's not nothing. Well, they shouldn't, if they're healthy, they will not need him to play a second against San Antonio in the playoff series, unless he's so good that he has earned that time. The case for the under is it's a huge number. Again, there's not gonna be anyone tanking. Are they gonna try to be careful with their best players? Um, and rest them more. And well, I mean, in J W's case, even if they rest him, he'll still end up playing more than he did last year. And I think for both them and the Spurs, you have to think like, how much does either team care about getting the number one seed and having game seven at home? The Spurs already beat Oklahoma city on the road in game seven. I don't know the answer to that, but I just say, and, and, and obviously they lost three key depth pieces. And one of them being a starter in Lou Dort. I'm not really worried about that. I think a full season of McCain is huge for them in that regard. I think Mitchell and McCain off the bench. I mean, they are gonna go on like 20 to four runs against these opposing second units who are like, what's happening? These guys are like all stars playing against us. I am going, uh, over on 61 and a half. I just think they're too good. I, so you're locking this. Yeah, I locked it. I couldn't lock it only cuz I don't know what 62 wins means in this new NBA where 25 to 28 teams are actually gonna care most of the season. I didn't know how to factor. Like if we were the old tanking roles, to me, this would be a 69 to 71 range team. I just don't know what I'm less fearful because I just like everybody's ass. Like there aren't any rosters that I'm worried about when I go through it. As you know, I love nothing more than going through preseason features, interviews and comments from star players and interpreting them and making too much of them. I have like some of the SGA stuff about, uh, about how much last year hurt and looking at the championship ring. And you know, that, that does seem like, uh, he's pissed off that. Basically they had a chance to go back to back. They didn't the Knicks supplanted them as you know, the team, San Antonio supplanted them as the sexy team in the west. Everyone wants to talk about. And I think he wants to get his, uh, take his corners back. It's a little Marlo season, season five. They also must know on some level that, um, and this is nothing to take away anything they accomplish, but the Halliburton injury in game seven of that series is inevitably changes the way we all remember that series. And, and I think they, they know if we want to win, we want to win over everybody's best shot. And we kind of didn't get to do that. Minnesota, a lot of buzz on them. And yet they're over under, it keeps going the wrong way house. It's down to 46 and a half. They are 27 and one for the title minus five 50 for the playoffs 30 to one would be the one seed. He did not have their first round pick. It goes to either Utah or Memphis 49 and 33 last year. They were 17 and 13 in their last 30 games. my big question to you In May, you're either going to be right or wrong about LaMelo. And I don't have a question. It's just a comment. It's now, you really have to pick sides on this one. This is not, you can't, I'm not just saying you, I'm saying everybody. This has now turned into the most fun, I'm on this side or I'm on this side, with the trade, with what LaMelo's going to do with Minnesota, the whole thing. So where are you? I've never been a LaMelo guy. I don't think he's a serious basketball player. I think he is incredibly talented. I understand the flair with which he plays. I know why he's so appealing to a couple of generations of basketball fans younger than me. I just want none of it. I'm not interested in any aspect of it. There have been a lot of smart people who've made the observations around the offensive engine he was for that Charlotte. Team last year, but he still commits turnovers, you know, inside of some of the advanced analytics at a rate that's not really sustainable. But at the end of the day, there is no evidence that he's a winning basketball player. And so that's my verdict. And as a result, Minnesota is an under for me. Year seven for him. He's played 2100 minutes once in a season. He's never played in an actual playoff game. And yet Zach Lowe, he's never played with anyone like Anthony Edwards. Few have. I would push back on the no evidence that he's a winning player just because Charlotte has always been way, way better when he's on the floor and not in a fake way. We're like, oh, the bench sucks and the starters suck less in a real way where like they're awesome on offense in particular and really crappy without him. I'm going over and I this line is too low at 46 and a half. The two guards and and Lomelo together offensively. Rudy is a top 10 defense all by himself. The floor seems pretty high if they're healthy. The bench worrisome and inexperienced. But, you know, there's some upside there. And I don't know how much of you guys have caught in the preseason. One of my real actual like I'm taking this away in a real way and putting it in my pocket for the regular season. I think Jaden McDaniels is going to level up as a player, particularly on offense. And I just I think 46 and a half is too low. So I will take the over and we have another disagreement. Finally, I was a slight over until I read this quote from Chris Finch. I'm Lomelo ball. He's always in a great mood, always comes in smiling. He and Anthony have a shared quality. They're really hard to stay mad at. They do some things that want to make you get mad. They have a reflective joy. We referred to ourselves as a moody team in the last couple of years at times, and it probably got in our way. We've traded moodiness for giddiness. I'm an over. Oh, joy. I actually think there I think this number is two to three wins too low. They're going to shoot a ton of threes. There's going to be nights when it looks awful. There's going to be nights when it seems like they could have beaten any team in NBA history. There's going to be a real flair and happiness and joy to them as a regular season team. I have no idea what happens in the playoffs and I don't have high hopes, but I agree with what Zach said about McDaniels IO Shannon Berenger. If they can actually get something out of him, the only thing I don't want to say, the only thing I don't want to say is I don't want to say he's a winning basketball player. I don't like where he fits in with this. I don't think he's going to have the ball enough and I don't see how the coming piece of this works. Just to be clear, you, you, you think 40% of their starting lineup are losing basketball players and you're taking you over. I don't think Lamella is a losing basketball player. I just want to be clear. Joe House said that Joe House right off the bat, I don't think Lamella is a losing basketball player. I just want to be clear Joe House said that Joe House right over here said that I feel like the record kind of supports it. It's my issue with the Charlotte to great. Okay. My issue with Lamella is this. It's a durability thing. I talked about this when they made the trade. I don't trust that he can play 2,300 and 2,400 minutes, which I think if you're gonna trade all this stuff they traded and you're going to rely on him the way they're going to rely on him. I need you. I need to know you're playing 70 to 73 games and you're gonna play 30 minutes a game. And Charlotte very smartly last year pulled his minutes back and put him at 28. Yeah. And agreed. We're basically treating him like they're on a cross country drive drive. I'm losing my voice. They're on a cross country drive just going 60 miles an hour on the highway in the middle lane with him. When I think he wants to go on the left lane and I think he wants to floor it and he's going to do that. He sure does. He does want to floor it. And I wonder people of Minnesota look at you. They should have an alert for when he gets behind the wheel of the car, literally wants to floor his car. I think his car takes up multiple lanes at the same time. So you can tell when it's a mellow, but here's the thing. They have insurance for him. If he misses 10 games, they do. And that's why that, that made me comfortable with the over 46 and a half. I thought about locking it down, but I just want to see how this looks. And by the way, I get why they did the trade. I just didn't like it. I thought last year I would've gotten rid of Randall. I would've kept Nas read. I thought last year they were injured. They were injured. They were a team that made two straight conference finals. And I thought had a foundation of something and I would have bet on McDaniels getting better. And yeah, I just would've gotten rid of Randall would've been my move. How many locks are we required to post? You can do as many as you want. I'm not ready to laugh. This one. Oh, I wouldn't. I would love to be on the other side of it, of, of, of the Zach lock. So they got rid of Randall, Nas, Rita, Mike Conley, and they added the mellow income. Bingo. Good. Best of luck. That's that's all. And hopefully a McDaniels level up because of Randall and they had a giddiness and happiness. I love that house. Do you want to do a challenge lock? You locked the under, I locked you over. Well, it's just a bet between the two of us. Let's not lock. I don't want to lock anything with this, but you and I can have our own separate gentlemen's Minnesota waiver. Let's see. We'll come up with a fun name for it. I don't understand. Why did you turn down his lock? Challenge? Because I'm not locking an under for this team. The ceiling is high. They, what, what if it works? I'm not locking it. I mean. This team probably had no chance of beating San Antonio and OKC healthy in the playoffs the next couple of years. And at least they have changed the variance with the freeze. I don't know why we're so certain of that. They, if, if Anthony Edwards was healthy, if Anthony Edwards was healthy, like what he does in terms of, you know, overcoming some of the shortfalls that we saw out of Randall, the, the, the Randall, um, Nas combo was a genuine frontline that could compete with. Thanks. That is with San Antonio, they won 49 games last season and they got rid of those two big bodies and replace them with, you know, clowny McFarty pants, the, uh, you know, who should be in a, in an Uber at all times and, and, and, and, and coming up cloudy McFarty pants. I mean, good luck. That's all. Good luck. They had to. So you won't lock an under on a team. No. No. You're not going to get a clowny McFarty pants. I don't like his game, but he, I mean, what if he goes off? What if Anthony Edwards unleashes him on locks? It's possible. If we can get a, if we can get a bill Simmons colonoscopy t-shirt made, can we get a clowny McFarty pants with a picture of, of LaMelo? Sure. I bet. I bet it would work. Zach, do you think if they hadn't floated Randall's name and the trade deadline so egregiously and spun him into a, the funk that he went to after that, that this was salvageable for, for them? Or do you think they were dying to get off him regardless? I think they were ready to just move on to your point, to, to a different vision of like, we need to do something that's our unique thing to have any chance and maybe this will be it. Well, they built a team to beat Denver and they did, but it didn't lead to making the final. I'm, I'm willing to acknowledge that Anthony Edwards could unleash him and he might start playing the, the first moment of his basketball career, some serious basketball. I'll acknowledge it. It's possible. I do think this will lead that this team will lead the league. Not only this year, but all time, historically in most times, a guy makes a three staggers away from the three point line with a prance has a teammate come over and then they double prance and stick their tongues out at each other. I think this is going to be the league leader of all time. I'd say it happening three times a game, but particularly if LaMelo and bones Highlander on the floor at the same time, just, they have, they, they have the most, uh, audacious and, and they are committed to them. Three point celebrations. You mean the rejuvenated bones Island? Yeah. I'm ready for the bones. He was good last year. Their bench is kind of fun. If they can get anything from Tom Berenger, I think this would be, this would be good. Todd Benzinger. All right. Right. All right. Two overs and an under for house, Denver nuggets. Not even fun to talk about. Cause you know, Zach and I are both going over there over as 48 and a half. They're 54 and 28 last year at the shirt. Last four years. House. 57 and 53 for wins in Vegas is saying those, those times are over nine to one for the division, 13, one for the conference, 27 to one for the playoffs. Their first rounder goes to okay. See, and it is top five protected Zach Lowe. The big question. Is there a 2022 warriors run lurking in the ether for these guys? Uh, the 2022 warriors run was amazing and magical. And one of the things that required. Was a kind of injury forced gap year for Denver and the Clippers who on paper, we're going to be way better than that way, better, better than those warriors. teams so if there's no gap here for oklahoma city in san antonio i think the answer is unfortunately no despite the fact that yokich is yokich sadly that's my answer as well house is there there's no moves they can make now they're they have no more moves they're right up against the second apron uh yeah and they did acquire that 31 unprotected cleveland pick which i think they will try to do something with it's just like what what salary are they attaching to that pick that has any positive value for another team to get them back but we have something even better than that we had this argument through the 2022 warrior scenario just so we have it three seed they get okay seed round two a team that i think they've looked pretty comfortable against over the years and it played wemby well too on the flip side minnesota somehow upsets san antonio or houston somehow san antonio loses in round two so they only have to play one of okc versus or san antonio and then they're able to get in there and the big thing would be that yokich who was not healthy last year who got hurt and who missed like 16 games and when he came back was not moving the same way he normally does he's just healthy last year 65 games he's had six straight top two mvp finishes it is year 12 for him basically and they lost peyton watson tim hardaway bruce brown they added to marty rose and tyus jones marvin bagley who i thought was a sneaky one he's serviceable don't i mean he was good in washington yeah i think he's serviceable i'd rather see him out there than zeke nagy and they added brazil from uh from the draft and then uh they they rejuvenated kim whitmore island they put electricity electricity and island on whitmore island the most interesting piece was the rosen a guy zach's probably written too many if you had to regret one player you've probably written two players is it the rosen or is it somebody else he basically spans your entire writing career tobias harris maybe maybe tobias okay could be up there he's first team all i spent too many words on you he's definitely first team there's no question he's unanimous first team um does the dorozen thing change anything for you no um i do think alfa diallo is worth a mention too given how his defense has looked in the preseason but i think you know the rosen's fine it'll be interesting to see how they use him i just you know he's additive as a ball handler i just don't know how that meshes with with jamal murray and and how they stagger all the minutes together defensively he's obviously a liability and he just sort of compounds a they don't shoot enough threes problem that has plagued denver although less so last year but so i i howard beck picked him as a sneaky six man of the year candidate i almost fell out of my chair uh i i don't i don't see it is he drinking the the uh the rosen thing brings up something that's just we have so many good players now the league is so deep that we've entered this new era where guys like demar de rosen can just play 18 minutes a game and be a legitimate old school six man because that's how much talent we have i am not going against yokage no i just think he's 50 wins every year uh much like tim duncan back in the day unless something egregious happens i do wonder though is there a jamal murray move with this team during this season because they have the yokage extension coming up and they're not going to be able to win the game they're going to have to win the game they're not going to be able to win the game they're not going to be able to win the game there's trade partners for something like that all over the league including the dallas mavericks that we talked about earlier where you could kairi's at 39 jamal's at 50 and if you're dallas and correct kairi's like i kind of want to be on one more good team now you flip that you double down on jamal murray toronto is the other one i was looking at for this where you know they could you the problem is they don't necessarily have the point guard and they don't have the point guard to give back but it is jamal murray canada but i i just i wonder if they'd proactively if they feel like they're not going to actually win the title make a move during this season to try to prepare themselves for the yokage contract would be my my fear with the over but i am going uh over i any anything under 50 is an automatic over for me with them i i agree with that um and i'm having a hard time with them i'm having a hard time with them i don't know my dismay is probably overstating it choosing christian brown over peyton watson and not having that perspective in mind when you're sitting down thinking about okay we got an amazing season out of christian brown what does the next three years look like and going through that decision making and fucking yourself so hard with christian brown and making it so that there's no possible way because you don't want to spend the money to to keep watson and i think peyton watson is going to be incredible with cleveland i think it's an amazing situation for him and i think that it losing him is a a material diminution of the ceiling of this denner nuggets team having said all that it's an over for me over 48 and a half that's not but that's the problem i have like the front office what we've gone through in terms of the coach swap stuff and the rivalry between you know um between booth and and and michael malone that that you know sabotage that season like what are we doing you you have an all-time great winning season and i think that's the problem i have like the front office what we've gone through with with the joker and you are fucking it up year after year after year still it's an over but you know i don't like it i don't like it that's zach do you feel better about the brown contract after some of the contracts we saw this summer where there's this range of guys 20 to 25 million a year now like pods just got 22 a year from the warriors right that does seem like the range congrats if you're a number four number five starter and you're young and you can play minutes that does seem like where we've landed with the range peyton watson's 22 a year io got in the low 20s and i wonder like is the brown contract that bad he was hurt last year well all of those guys were better than christian brown last year so it needs it requires a bounce back year we don't really know what christian brown looks like not catching touchdown passes from yokich for half of his points but be that as man i think he's a good player it's a it's it's a negative contract right now but it's easily all right are you sitting down you are sitting down i can see you i'm going under on 48 and a half for the nuggets and no one loves yokich more than i i do i have a lot of respect for the starting five that they've assembled um i'm going under because as i went through all my western conference picks you can't you you've got to go under on some good teams it just for the math to work it just has to work and the counter to yokich you can't you you've got to go under on some good teams it just for the math to work it just has to being healthy potentially healthier than it was last year is i hate the bench i have no faith in aaron gordon being healthy for a large portion of the sea i don't know what the cap on games of him is and i don't know who backs him up now that i have any faith in uh i worry that we just got the best jamal murray year and the healthiest jamal murray year that we're ever gonna have and i have to go under somewhere i don't feel great going under 48 and a half on a denver team that's been a 50 win machine with yokich i just really don't like the back end of this roster and i don't feel good about injuries and some minor aggression at the top other than yokich so i gotta go i'm going under i and i actually feel not terrible about it it's i just feel sad well it's the the required if you go over on minnesota the way that you did my life you're and you're gonna see other teams i go you you're gonna see other teams i go over on that i feel pretty confident i can't go over on everyone it makes sense i'm not arguing with you they only were one round last year so they haven't played basketball since april which makes me feel good with jamal murray and aaron gordon and the joker honestly i like the bench a little more than zach i i also think they can add to the bench especially in february which we saw last year where there were a bunch of guys available late and i just can't go under with joker if he's healthy and motivated which it seems like he is but i feel sad i feel deceived i feel betrayed take it easy that's strong portland trailblazers by the way that thing you said about how you had to go over on certain teams i actually like added up all the wins and losses that i thought everyone was going to have and all the over-unders and actually felt pretty good about going over on them because there there's a lot of teams i don't like that means that means we're gonna just that means we're gonna disagree on some teams coming oh yeah let's go portland trailblazers 41 and a half last year they're 42 and 40 playoffs minus 185 playing plus one five 80 to one for the title they have new coach michael nori who uh is being paid by the month last 30 games last year 18 and 12 the big question because they lost jeremy grant and matthias teibel they added john morant jeremy sohan vick crutchie and a healthy dame lillard and they have four point guards and two centers and a bunch of i don't know what else sharp is hurt but my big question house did they get too fucking weird with this team did they just go full weirdo in a way that um just was too weird it's very weird i don't especially with the ownership change and oh cheapo the uncertainty around how long they may remain in in portland it's a very weird roster i wrote down in my notes it's like when we go out to dinner and you get really excited by different things on the menu We ordered too many things. And you're like, oh, they have an iceberg wedge? There's French onion soup? Good. Wait, they have oysters? Good. Oh, there's a seafood tower? Great. Wait, you have a porterhouse bone-in special? This is where it goes sideways. And you just start ordering stuff. The porterhouse and the pasta. And then the entree comes and it's like, oh, shit, we have one more course coming. And then you just regret it. It was a course too many. I wonder if Portland was like that, Zach, where they were like, oh, yeah, we can get Dame Lillard and we can get John Morant. My wife refers to me as a panic order based really on one meal that we had in New York before a show. We're halfway through the meal. I was like, I just think I'm going to be hungry. Can we get an order of edamame dumplings to just get us there? That sounds delicious. By the time the edamame dumplings came, I was like, this was kind of a mistake. I don't know who the edamame. Dumplings. I don't know who the edamame dumplings are in this. In this case, not John Morant. Now, John Morant is the let's get the lobster for the table. Yes. And it's like, oh, wait, they didn't take it. They didn't take it out of the show. Well, we all have to use the crunchies. Oh, my God. It's all over me. You guys don't have bibs. I have lobster all over me. What's happening? Lobster for the table is magnificent, by the way. I guess. Either of you guys. Have either of you guys been approached to be the play-by-play announcer for the Blazers this year? No, I'm available. Oh, can I do it remotely? Well, they have a cheap owner, four point guards and a new coach on a one-year deal. They have a Scoot Henderson situation that I do think he would have had trade value and interest around the league. And now they've just buried him to the point that somebody like Memphis could probably just steal him. You know, some team. I have some. Point guard minute. Brooklyn. Why didn't they do that in the first place? Why didn't they get Scoot as part of the John Morant? I don't know why they did. Arrangement. Free Scoot Henderson is my thing. Did you want to do a Stephen A apology to El Cheapo? No, no, I'm not going to do it. I know you. We had a whole conversation around last night, Bill Simmons and I, that situation in Portland and the direction that that whole thing was testing out a zag about El Cheapo. And I'm not, I'm not. They're not going anywhere. Maybe he has some good ideas. I don't know. I was like, do this. I'm not doing it. I'm not ready yet. I'm not. I don't have the full. Maybe he has some good ideas is a phrase that has led a lot of people down a lot of roads that have become regrettable. Good observation. Maybe you should apologize for even thinking about doing a zag on El Cheapo. I'd like to. I'd like to talk to the Trailblazer fans right now. A fan base I deeply respect. You could have just done it, House. I'm not going to do it. I would say everybody who knows anything about basketball, if you ask them, Hey, would it make sense to start Dame lowered and John Moran together? The answer would be no, don't do that, but they're doing it. They're bringing drew holiday off the bench who seems like he'd be perfect. Starting with John Moran. Time Lord's coming off the bench. So hand who I, I don't know how many times teams. I just have to try him out and take him for a test drive. Uh, this is an under for me. I don't understand this team at any time. I'm just completely confused by a roster. I have to go under 41 and a half means that they would have to have a winning record and I don't see it house. So under for me, I crossed out my answer to this one three different times because it's a roster with a lot of talent, like guys that shot creators shot makers. So I'm just going to go with the, you know, the flash flood version of Denny, uh, going, you know, to, to the middle, he's just crashing the middle, uh, and getting to the rim and either getting fouled or finishing. What a revelation that was. Well, how many times is he going to be able to do that with this roster construction? I have no fucking idea. So what does it mean to Denny Avdia's development and his impact on the team? I have no clue. I am playing them under, um, but I could easily see them winning 44 games. Or so I could easily see it. It wouldn't shock me. I have one more comment on this team, but let's get Zach's pick first. I think Denny's going to have a great year again, uh, in taking some easier threes and still being a pretty high volume driver, a ball handler, et cetera. But we'll not have the ball as much as he did last year. He won't. And he shouldn't. I mean, he had the ball all the time last year. He was, he was, it was a little too much. Uh, I think there's real talent here. I like some of the pieces. I have the same fit issues. Everybody else has no one is tanking. And again, a stat that if I, I'm having any little trouble deciding 16 and 33 against winning teams last year, we go 26 and seven against the sub 500 teams. I am going a slight under, under blazers. I also have real questions about what do we get out of Dame at this point of his career coming off that injury when I didn't really like where the arrow was pointed to begin with. And then him playing with John Moran, just ridiculous anyway, but then where John Moran is now in his career, where it was all. I don't like the, uh, and then you have a coach on a, when you're a contract and you have El Cheapo three unders for us, last one's going to be a good, uh, lively combo, the Utah jazz they're over under is 37 and a half, which made me go, Whoa, I didn't think it was gonna be that high playoffs plus one 10 play in plus 100 last year. There are 20. 22 and 60. But in the last 40, they were eight 32 as they, uh, threw away the second half of the season. The point that Adam silver for one of the few times in his commissioner tenure actually got mad and clean cleaned house and did some shit. A lot of people like this team, Zach Lowe. My big question. Can I offer everyone around to settle down juice? You can offer it to me. I don't have to take it. I'm going to turn your, you can buy me a drink at the bar and I'm going to say, no, thank you. I don't like the look of that guy. I don't like what he's about. And I'm returning the drink 20 ounce. Settle down juice. You're not taking it. That's too much. I don't even want a 12 ounce. Settle down juice. I'll have a beer instead, or I guess I'll have a two and a half percent beer. Cause we're talking about the jazz, but I'll take my beer. Thank you. They lost Walker Kessler who played five games last year. They added Darren Peterson. They're starting triple J marketing, Ace Bailey, Peterson, and George. Nurkic is out for at least a month. Bench is C plus where you look at Zach. Well, I'm going over on the jazz. I have a lot of faith in will Hardy. I think just has a chance to be a very dynamic offensive team. Obviously there are concerns about rebounding, particularly without Nurkic. Maybe they'll start. They started Jackson Hayes lesson. I think they're still deciding who the fifth starter on the team is going to be wing defense, obviously going to be a little bit of an issue. But I think I like the fit. I like the fit of marketing and triple J together. I think Keontae George is a real guy. I like Darren Peterson. I think we'll already is a great coach. They're hungry to win. They have good spacing. They're creative. They're going to be hard to play against. Their bench to me is just, just good enough that I can go over on 37 and a half house. Yeah. So the market, I think this opened 35 and a half went up to, I think. Yeah. So all the way up to 37 and a half now, because as folks, as the seasons, you know, coming into view, we have some proof of concept with what a dynamic score. Darren Peterson is, uh, and wow. Could he be complimentary? Um, you know, adding to this, this team that already, you know, has some shot makers, some guys that can create some, some shots, your guys that you would trust with the ball. Um, and it feels like Ace Bailey was a little under the radar last season. He's, he's a big guy. This is. This is a big lineup. They can run out there. I like, I like, I like Ace Bailey a lot. I think he's got a chance to be, and he's in the perfect role now as he doesn't have to do too much offensively. He's really embraced, like trying to get better defensively, moving off the ball. I, I, I really like him. There's some rim protection stuff with him that I did not expect last year. I mean, Washington was dying to get him, um, in the draft that they selected, uh, Trey Johnson. They just couldn't, you know, figure out a way to rope a dope Utah. Uh, and you. And Utah was not good to be rope a dope, even with ACE, you know, pretending that he wasn't going to be happy there. Um, I have to take the over with this team because of my respect for, for Hardy and how many professional basketball players are on this team. And because I think when we get to this Pacific division, uh, the number of unders that are appearing there and all of the wins that are available, um, I have the Utah threatening the play in, I think they're going to be a legit, you know, team to, to, to bump up into that sort of. Intense base. I'm going to zag and go under just cause we've, I don't have enough for, I've zagged against you guys. I have them right around this number. The rebounding and defense stuff is a real concern for me. I agree with what Zach said about Will Hardy. I'm excited to see him with a real team offensively. I like some of the stuff they have. I also think they have a bunch of guys that probably would want to have the ball and I don't know how the Peterson George thing is going to work out. Peterson is the anointed guard. Holy shit. There's some Kobe in here. There's a bunch of different pieces of. great players that I think you need some settled down juice I'm just saying if you watch a two minute two minute here's what Darren Peterson did last night montage you're like Jesus are you saying he's a problem Darren Peterson is a problem but but George was a problem last year I mean he averaged 23 a game and had the ball all the time for them and I thought was pretty good at the end of games um I don't like the rebounding defense piece at all and I don't know when Nurkic comes back I don't know how this team's gonna get rebounds Jaron Jackson his career average I haven't written down 5.6 rebounds a game and not just that he only plays like 28 29 minutes a game he and he gets into foul trouble all the time honestly I would listen to a 45 minute podcast segment of you and Barkley just complaining about power forwards and centers who don't get rebounds it's one of your favorite things that you guys share it's two a quarter you can't resist it and I would I would listen to just you guys going through all of NBA history and Barkley being like I played against that guy he stinks and just going off on when you come and I pick up basketball USC I was getting two rebounds a quarter it's not hard just go put your ass into somebody and get a rebound um I worry about the rebounding and I worry about them defending unless house is right about ace Bailey and he's somebody that could actually become a two-way guy right away this year my fear for this team I also have some Peterson fears too because I still think the Kansas season was really weird it just was he played he wasn't playing he was hurt he wasn't hurting I don't trust that my thing with this team and I don't like their schedule first 20 games either my thing with this team I think they're the advanced stats are going to be really good it's gonna be a little like Charlotte last year where we're like whoa look at Utah's offense holy shit and I think they're going to be in the vicinity of a lot of games but I don't think they're going to be a 500 team it's a slight under I think there's somewhere between 35 and 37 for me so under for me over for Zach over for house yeah I do want to point out it is funny Zach probably knows off the top of his head maybe you know as well who was Utah's leading rebounder last season was it marketing it was not who was it Kyle Filipowski at just over seven rebounds pretty good I'll tell you you could make a very good video too just just just FYI on that my dad couldn't stand him when he played for the Celtics my dad was upset they brought that Zvi guy in again what does he do he shoots that's what he does I will say I feel the the the worst about this pick out of my first 10 picks because I could see this being over the Will Hardy thing worries me and the crowd worries me and I don't feel great about the under but we had to disagree on something all right we're gonna take a break come back with the uh the very very decrepit Pacific after this this episode is brought to you by seven up okay this one's a case for conspiracy bill let's bring them in ever notice lemon is everywhere from lemon recipes to lemon scented cleaning supplies and when it comes to lemon lime sodas why is lemon always first there's a reason a shadowy organization called the Alemanade has been padding the stats keeping big lemon in the lead for decades but let me tell you something the sip is about to be flipped seven up is fighting back popping lemon lime for their new lime lemon soda now lime comes first seven up flip the sip for adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms every choice matters Tramphia offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start Tramphia is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks if your doctor decides that you can self-injection Tramphia proper training is required Tramphia is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis serious allergic reactions increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur before treatment get checked for infections and tuberculosis tell your doctor if you have an infection flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine explore what's possible ask your doctor about Tramphia today the Pacific Division our third and last division in the West and easily the worst one the Lakers have the best odds they're over under is 45 and a half for the division they're minus 180 conference 21 title 40 to 1 their 2027 draft pick goes to Memphis but it is top four protected last year they were 53 and 29 they lost LeBron James Rui Hachimura Marcus Smart DeAndre Ayton they had a Walker Kessler Quentin Grimes Colin Sexton and Mamu a Zach Lowe favorite my big question for you Zach can these snowtime Lakers get Luca an MVP uh it's it's possible but I I feel like we've been having the same discussion about oh this is the year that all the stars align for Luca to win MVP and he I I don't I don't I when I say he hasn't played enough games I don't mean he hasn't qualified for the 65 game rule I mean he's he's like around 68 a lot and then his team just doesn't finish high enough in the standings so I it's just look when you got to go through Wemby and Jokic and SGA the answer is always going to probably be no snow time or no snow time Bando Wemby plus 200 SGA plus 400 Luca plus 500 Joker six to one Giannis 10 to one Tatum 16 to one house no I'm not allowed to bet on this word yeah I'm it's it's a waste of money at the outset of the season to bet on MVP from a gambling perspective um as the season develops maybe but I'm done I'm not betting on Luca anymore I've done it each of the last three years you've donated to the Luke MVP fund had enough what does an MVP season look like for him I wrote down probably 49 plus wins 35 a game 35 nine and nine game winners and yeah I think he has to play 70 plus games right now if he goes James Harden 2019 range where he's like 36 37 a game the conversation shifts I think you don't seem excited about that Zach no I just I mean we'll see I you know I I I think the team is more interesting than how many points Luca is going to average whether it's 33 or 35 or 37 or 31 it's going to be a ton of points put up amazing stats starting five of Quinton Grimes and four white guys four white starters house we're heading back to the 50s the throwback the true throwback and the big move was Kessler who I talked about on my pod last week or two weeks ago they gave up a shitload of stuff for him um for a guy that I don't think was probably in the top ringer 100 hasn't come out for this year and I don't think he was probably in the top 60. played five games last year they could have patched together Center in different ways they decided they wanted to go all in on somebody Luca was excited about and he both has to play a lot of games he has to be incredibly impactful and even if that happens I'm still not sure what the destiny of this team is so uh there's another variable they the team just got sold Rob palinka is not on the crock pot he's on the if I don't even think he's on a hot seat I think he's uh in the exit row and I don't know when that's going to happen but I don't think he will be involved with this team by the end of the season if not sooner wow JJ seems okay and I thought JJ did a good job last year but um there's a little bit of it's Lucas team now now they'll change the front office they're gonna cruise to this division and I don't know what success is for this team Zach other than being in the high 40s and building a future around Luca like I don't think this team has aspirations that they're going to win three playoff rounds right I I wouldn't say that to Lucas face or JJ reddick's face but it's it's hard I mean that's making the finals out of the west and that seems like a hill that's not happening for them to climb and I mean I think the bigger problem is the it's not the money for Kessler it's the pics that that combined with the money it is this team now just boxed in asset wise with the only out looming if they want to change their team trading Austin Reeves which is going to be you know if they ever do it would be trading an extremely talented player to try to get another extremely talented player back or reset the timetable which Luca is not going to want but look I mean the season you just described high 40 wins top four seed win a playoff round lose to the Oklahoma City or San Antonio it's not what Luca wants to hear it's not what Lakers fans want to hear it's a good nothing wrong with that hmm when do we think when we get the first interview from somebody talking about how last year with the LeBron situation just wasn't fun and it's nice to nice to have this fresh start or there's going to be something that's going to piss off somebody and we'll get a little back and forth does that happen so that before Christmas they better have a pretty goddamn good winning record if it if it ever does so if they're like 17 and nine that's when it can happen all right yeah maybe where are you house I don't know I'm not sure well the time has arrived well you have to pick it's 45 and a half. I'll go. You want me to go? Yeah, you go over lock. Yeah. Okay. Lock. I am an over only because I think healthy Luca for 70 games with an entire offense being geared around him feels like 46 and 36 minimum to me. I have to go over as well. And their conferences are their divisions. I'm shocked that you're, you're an over. Yeah, I just, Luke is too good. Okay. I think he's going to be really invested. Not that he isn't every year, but especially in this year, this is now his team. Everyone's coming to see him. Everyone's going to be wearing Luca jerseys. And I just think he's going to this. If he's ever going to have a career year, this is the year. Zach, what is a, did you make a pick yet? I did. I took the over. Okay. They can't play defense. There's nobody on the floor. You know, they have one rim protector. You know, Utah tried that with Rudy Gobert. It didn't work. Yeah. It worked. Okay. They wanted, they wanted like 60 games one year. Yeah. Yeah. But when he was the soul, you're talking about, it didn't work for winning the finals, making the final and, and him as the only sort of defensive stopper. What's a, what's a Lakers game look like? Is it like a 1 29 to 1 22? Is that what I mean? What's w what? I mean, how many games did they win last year? Who was playing defense for them? 53 last year. That's the problem. And that's why one of the reasons I went over, cause I had the under for them last year and I was rooting against them and I said, I don't like the Lakers and you get in these games with them where they're down six with four minutes left, but they have Luca and he just starts tilting the last four minutes of these games and getting good, doing all the stuff he does. And there, and I think they'll, I think they're going to be close to a lot of the teams and he'll be the, he'll swing. There are 500 team and he'll swing six games, right? I think Kessler's a legit, really good defender. And JJ Redick has shown the ability to like scheme around his team's limitations and, and like win the kind of marginal things that you can almost kind of control as a coach. Like they walk into every game bill. You can conspiracy theory bill if you want with like a plus five free throw advantage, every single game, they Luca teams are generally, you don't even make conspiracy bill. You could just have bill for that one. Lucas teams are generally low turnover teams. So I could see them like seventh in offense, 17th in defense, sixth in offense, 15th in defense. I just think 45 and a half is too low. They were kind to me last year. I was the only one to pick the over last year. So I'm going to go overlocked and the division stinking, I think helps them. It does help. I agree with that. That's more than anything. That's really the case here. I mean, I'm going to lay, this is a rare instance where the price is minus one 80 to win the division. I'm going to lay it. Yeah, I don't, I guess we could talk as we go through the rest of the week. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go through the rest of these teams. I don't know who the challenger is. Golden state over under is 36 and a half. I have them in the number two spot because the over under was 39 and a half when I did my layout and it has now dropped three wins and they're now plus four 10 for the division. They're plus one 10 for the plan. Plus one Oh five for the plan. Plus one 10 for the playoffs last year, 37 and 45. Big question for you house. Does it matter that Steph Curry will never win another title with the warriors? What kind of question is that? What does it matter? Does it matter? No, it doesn't matter his step career in 30 years. Will it matter at all? I'm going to say no, 0%. No, no, it doesn't matter at all. It's an amazing legacy. He's a one of one. He seems it's the greatest shooter I've ever seen. He's I'm retiring with the warriors and that's just, it's very Dirk Nowitzki mid 2010s Mavs ish. This is my team. I don't want to play anywhere else. I already won. I'm good. He's got a great life. Zach, did you watch the Sopranos? I did not watch the whole series. No, I, I got in and then I got out and then I got interrupted and it was too late. It's it's on my list of like, I just have to sit down and do this. All right. Only house. We'll get this joke then. I think he's in the Carmelo Carmela Soprano arc. Oh, of he went great. He's things are going. The Sopranos are kicking ass winning titles. We have the dip. Yeah. Like in, in the, in the show season five, Tony moves out. Well, she asked for a divorce. She's going to get a divorce. She tries to meet with different lawyers. No lawyer will take her case because Tony's good bottom. All she hooks up with the teacher for a couple episodes flirts with the priest eventually gets sucked back in. And then by the last season, she's just like, this is my family and I'm married to this guy and that's it. And I guess we're going to, I guess we're going to the diner tonight. We're in the diner. We're in the Carmela. I'm just, I'm married to him for life until he gets shot basically. And I think Steph at some point over the last couple of years, it was like, this is it. I, this is my team. I'm just married to this and this is just how it's going to play out. And I don't really care. Is Joe Lake of Tony. I think Draymond green is Tony. Oh, I like that better. And I think Joe Lake up is probably Johnny sack. And I don't know. Yeah, see that now you're getting this is good. Um, but it's dirt. It's a little messy in Miami too, where it's like, I've done everything I can do. And now it's like, I'll come I'm in the MLS. Come see me. I'll make some threes every once in a while. I'll be on and big TV days. I just don't think he cares. The big, the big question for me, roster wise is if you axle is impactful this year, can that shift the over under at all? Like if he's J he's 24 years old, it's conceivable. He could come in and just be an impact guy. So now you have Draymond and Yax on pods curry. We have no idea what we're getting for Porzingis. They basically have no rebounder shop locker, anybody other than Horford D Santos needs a wing guy. Um, decent bench guys, Butler's coming back mid season. I just think it's going to be too much damage in the first couple months here without Butler, not knowing what you're getting from Porzingis, no Moses Moody trying to figure out what this team is. that it's going to be too hard. I am shockingly going under, guys. Shocking? What's shocking about it? 36 and a half. I just would have been a blind over for me basically until this year with these guys. What do you have, Zach? Yeah, go ahead, Zach. I'm an under as well. I think you outlined it pretty well. Worth noting, Steph Curry is 38 and missed half of last season with runner's knee. And they just have absolutely no fallback plan until Jimmy Butler comes back and who knows how good he'll look for the first month or two when he's back if Curry misses games. And Curry will miss games. And I also think, as we alluded to earlier, they could very well find themselves in a position where they are in the sweet spot of the new lottery system and that's the absolute best place for them to be in terms of their long-term future. So I will go under. With a star player who would have complete buy-in on. Yeah, we're not doing anything anyway. The other problem is there's really good centers in the league now. And you could kind of patch together the aging Draymond and Al Horford. But they kind of needed Porzingis or somebody like that. And it just. I mean, we don't. Porzingis, this is the great unknown. They tried. Yeah, we have no idea what's going to happen. I'm penciling in a zero just for my projections and I'll be happy if I'm wrong. Yeah, that's right. And they misplayed this badly. It's a super under. The misplay. The thing that they can't overcome is fucking up two incredibly high draft picks. There's just no recovering from Wiseman and Kuminga with the team that they are and the way that they tried to. Or turning them into any sort of asset either way with any of those guys. Yeah, so it's an under. It's a big under for me. I am glad George's Niang is on this team. I've always liked him. I think he'll fit in. I think he'll be a popular warrior. The crazy question that almost could have been the big question is has the Valks. Have they supplanted the Warriors as the team? I don't know if you're following the Valks. I'm following the WNBA and there was breaking news. I didn't read it about where the actual finals games are going to be in Atlanta while we were doing this podcast. The team building of the Valks is an all-timer. So, Lakob still gets the victory lap this year. It's like, yeah, we won four titles with the Warriors and then I moved my attention to the WNBA. He's not that kind of owner to take a public victory lap like that. That's not him. Three unders for us. Yeah. Listen, Kerr signed a new deal. Curry signed a new deal. Draymond's got one left. I think this is a 4-10 team. Are we going to use that as an official phrase? A 4-10? Oh, sure. In the lottery system? Yeah, 4-10 team. This is a 4-10 team. And I think they're 55 games in and they're like, we can try and we will try because we're a proud veteran team. That's still where we're going to end up and I think the key for them is not to tank but just don't go the other way and be like, let's trade two of us. Let's move our picks for this marginal guy who might help us make the play-in tournament. Well, one of the things that I had in my notes as I was trying to figure out the records, you could be a 4-10 team but also maybe be a play-in team in the West because there's a chance. There's like seven bad West teams and only three bad East teams and a lot of the wins are in the East and you could be in the like 36-38 range with a chance to kind of straddle. We had it last year. We had it last year. Yeah, they were 37. They were the 10th and they were, they were 37 wins. Phoenix Suns over under 38 and a half plus 310 for the vision minus 110 for the playoffs. Their 2027 draft pick is going to Houston. They were 45 and 37 last year, but they were 14 and 16 in their last 30. My big question house. They have this team. The Duke kid's going to be the center. The kid you liked in the draft. Miles Bridges, Brooks, Green, Booker, Gillespie, Kennard, Osso, Goodwin, Dunn, Fleming, Highsmith. They don't have any good picks until 2034. This is your team, Phoenix? This is where you landed? The Clippers just had the biggest suspension in the history of the league and have more first pick assets than Phoenix does. So for the offseason, got rid of Graystown, Royce O'Neal, added Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard, and Pat Spencer. This is what happens when you fuck up. Right when the team is under new ownership and go all in on a player like Kevin Durant in a situation that made no sense. And even worse, Bradley Beal. Well, the Bradley Beal, all they did was take on this salary. They took on all these dumb swaps. Yeah. So they're paying the price for that. I had to make a decision in looking at this between which roster I preferred. Between this and who? Phoenix and Portland. This was because this is where they're going to fall in terms of 7, 8, 9. And I think I prefer this Phoenix roster with Ott. Hmm. With, you know, the fact that because of what you just described, I think I'm going to play hard. And I like the character. I love how they, you know, discovered Gillespie. I loved how they discovered, discovered, you know, Goodwin. Dylan Brooks, I think, is exactly the right place. I love what you did in terms of having them very highly ranked for fight potential. Yeah. Dylan Brooks and Miles Bridges together. It's pretty tough. It's a tough guys. The big question. Mark is, is green. Can they, can, is there any iteration of green that, that is, you know, can smell of offensive efficiency? Can we, can we get there with him at all? So I have a bigger question, Mark. Go ahead. The center position on this team. Well, sure. Is why, when is Mark Williams come back? Torn labor. I think it's a long time. I agree. So you're basically rolling the dice with Malay. Close. Close. Malay. Malay. Malawak. Malawak. Hey, I got it. You're rolling the dice with Maloof. The Maloofs are back. You're rolling the dice with the Duke kid. But man, I, from what I saw from him last year, he seemed far away. Yeah, I agree. Like far away. This was, I felt Wiseman golden state-ish far away. I think Iguodaro will start. Oh, so. At center. Oh, so. Good luck with that. Sneaky contract extension candidate right now, by the way, keep an eye on that. But, um. Uh, I think he'll start. I like him in the draft bench. One of my favorites. I'm going, I'm going under on the sons. I do think this is a really, this is like a perfect line. Like, I think the sons are an exactly average basketball team on both ends of the floor. I have no idea if this is going to hit under or over. I just think they got a lot of mileage last year out of just outworking everyone. And I think you get a little bit less mileage out of that this season with no one tanking. Now they were not tanking. They were not super healthy last year. Jalen green missed a bunch of time. Booker missed games. I can go either way on this. I just think it's kind of just meh all around. And you add in Mark Williams already being injured. I just slight under 38 and a half. It's so funny. You said that. Cause my, my initial big question was my big question. Well, but I thought that was too mean. But it's a lot team. They were a super fun team last year. The fans really liked them. And I just, they wanted it when 45. Yeah. I don't think they can get back to that this year, but they're good and solid and super competitive. The last 30 is really telling them that to me that they only were 14 and 16 down the stretch. They, they caught people by surprise in that first two months. And I thought they won a couple of games. They shouldn't have won. And I thought they kind of came back to where their record against winning teams. You have that in front of you, Zach. Uh, yeah. 21 and 30. So that's not horrendous. Yeah. But there was a couple of like 24 and seven against end of the game wins that they had. No, I, I, I, yeah, you're right. So my thing with this, and one of the reasons I went under, cause I think there'll be between 35 and 38. And I think that's okay with, if you're them, because after we get the top five and let's say the Lakers went 45, 46, seven, eight, nine, 10, I think might all be under 40 Portland, Phoenix, Dallas, all these teams. I think they're all going to be clustered in that 35 to 39 range. And I don't think there's going to be an outlier. I think that's just where those teams are. Who's your favorite son when you do the Zach Lowe all-stars just like favorite guy to watch. No, you, you, I called it the bill Simmons all-stars when I had my calm, you called it the Marcus all-stars your favorite. Um, I'll disqualify Booker just cause he's too good. Yeah. Um, I would say, uh, coming for this is Rashear Fleming. I just haven't seen enough yet, but he is a, I'll go Colin Gillespie. Uh, and I actually think there's this interesting conversation. Should he start over Jalen green, but he's just got a lot of moxie, man. He talks a lot of shit. You make, he's snarling at people. I like him. If I were the sons, I would start, uh, I would start glass band and make green my six man and just be like, you're going to come in and run the offense. We may well get 10 minutes again. Well, that honestly, they could probably sell that to green. Why don't you go win six man of the year? Make your mark. Jalen green. Show us that you can do it. I think his response would be, but I'm one of the 12 best players in the league. Why would I do? Do you realize how good I am? I'm Jalen green. Can we talk about quickly the Luke canard sucking in another fan base into the hope of Luke canard and how that whole arc is going to be. I'm actually going the opposite way. I really hope he turned the corner last year and I'm, I'm surprised the Lakers didn't bring him back because he's been searching for his confidence and searching for a home that shows confidence in him. And I thought particularly given how he played at the beginning of the Houston series and he was like what he had 30 in a game. In that series, I kind of died as the playoffs went along though, I thought he had found a home. I think he's going to be completely fine as a seventh, eighth guy in Phoenix and he's a solid player. Speaker 3 : Is he one of the top 37? I thought he found a home guys of the last 25 years. Zach. Oh, he's, he's, I mean, I did what the criteria is for that list, but sure. It always seems like Luke canard found a home for about 20 minutes and then he's on another team. That makes a lot of sense for him though. They, they are sneaky. Good. Like I feel going under and them at only 38 wins. It's disrespectful to Dylan Brooks. Everywhere Dylan Brooks goes. They're winners. Dylan Brooks is a winner. I don't know why the Lakers anyway, right? No, they're an over for me. I think they're going to win in the low forties because I think they're better than Portland. I don't know why they signed Colin Sexton didn't let Luke canard go if the Lakers, I didn't get that one. I still get suspicious. Hey, I feel the same way. I forgot to say this with the Kessler trade when Utah, who is clearly building like this whole foundation that he seemed to be a part of, and then all of a sudden the Lakers made some offering. Utah's like, okay, done. Call it in. That would make me nervous if I was the Lakers. Why are they so anxious to put this guy in a trade? I guess because the package was so great. Speaking of packages that are great, the Los Angeles Clippers. Oh, Speaker 1 : Over under 27 and a half, they do not have their first round pick in 2027 because it is swapped with okay. Sayer Cleveland. So technically they will have a pick there plus eight 50 for the playoffs plus three 70 for the plan. Last year, there were 42 and 40 Zach. My big question is yikes. Yeah. Yikes. Why? Why? Why? they lost Kawhi Leonard, John Collins and Nick Batum they added Brandon Ingram on one leg Keith Wagler, Rui Hachimora Max Struess on one leg and Grady Dick starting five for the first Clippers game who do they announce last is it going to be Wagler or Darius Garland who's going to get the spot in the Jumbotron the last guy who does the clap hands and screams careful talking about Jumbotrons and the Clippers too soon, not bad they're starting Brooke Lopez they're going to start Derek Jones it gets hurt seemingly every year and sometimes two to three times a year they do have my guy Niederhauser, they have your guy Bradley Beal I don't think we have talked about this long, this is a hard under for me I don't see how this team gets to 25 wins, much less 28 27 and a half is very low Ty Lue is a very good wins scrounging manufacturing coach they are going to have the chip on our shoulder try hard, outwork everyone, try to restore some dignity to the operation and yet, Brandon Ingram's already hurt Max Struess is already hurt, I'm going under 27 and a half in a league where everyone's trying I just think even Jordan Miller is hurt guys are already hurt all over the place I'm going under and by the way If you finish in the bottom three and you don't have your pick, who cares? And if anything, it's a little sticking. Yeah, you've heard someone else. Yeah, you've heard somebody else. Under under house. Under lock. It's a lock for me. Yes. I mean, I got the Clippers were one of my favorite teams last season on this note of Ty Lue. I still don't understand why they came out of at the beginning of the season last year and were so terrible over the first 30 games. Still have no good explanation for why that team that threatened 50 wins the previous. I mean, there was a big scandal brewing. What that has to do with playing basketball on the basketball court. The vibe. But how? But how is 21 at one point? Not only were they six and 21, the the very first game of their season was in Utah and they got blown out by like 30. And it was one of the all time single game opening game. And it was like, whoa, something is not right here. Like it would. They just look completely. We should keep that in mind for this year. They're opening five. The starting five for that team was, you know, it was it was zoo. It was Kawhi. It was James Harden. Like, what the fuck? I mean, it was alarming. And it is something to to put in your back pocket when we watch opening opening night that Wednesday with all the games. If there's a team that has that kind of feel like it's somewhat meaningful. Um, we didn't mention how bad the home field advantage is going to be for them. Home court advantage. It's lights over spotlights, baby. It's going to be. Are you going to go find out? I will go to a couple of games. All right. I do. I will say I do feel bad for the people that work for the Clippers and they didn't deserve this or ask for this. And, you know, they're in a good situation seemingly with a new arena and a contending team. And now all of a sudden they've been thrown into this basically only because of a couple of people. I don't know if I'm locking that one yet. I'm going to wait till the end. Last team, Sacramento Kings. They lost to bar Rosen and Devin Carter, who is now going to be a star for the Celtics. They added Darius a cuff and my son, Ben Simmons division. If you want to look at those odds, one 25 to one, I don't want to look at them. One 25 to one Zach title, thousand to one playoffs, 40 to one last year. They're at 22. And 60 and they kept Doug Christie. They're starting lineup is Sabonis, Murray, Hunter, Levine, and a cuff Levine in a contract here. Raynaud is already hurt. Maxime right now. Monk is still there. Ben Simmons is allegedly feeling as good as he's had in some time. Achua is here over 20 and a half. I don't even have a big question other than are the Kings talking to you, Zach? Yeah, we're all good. We're all good with the Kings. You didn't mention Nick Clifford, who of all the guys, I'm actually probably the most excited to see what they have in him. They didn't seem as excited last year when they weren't playing him enough for some reason. Well, that's true. I like him as well, but he just didn't get enough time. I'll just get it over with. I'm going over on the Kings after calling them the Hindenburg. I was all excited to go over on them and have you guys react. Both of you guys do it. It's fine. The line is going to be the only over. I am not doing that. It reached a point where it's just too low for a team that has some actual good basketball players and every organizational incentive to try to avoid the bottom three in the standings. It's just too low of a line. I'm going over. With these new rules and the fact that they have their own pick, I don't understand how they wouldn't try to be the fourth. Best team, worst team in the league. You can't be in the bottom three. You're going to try. This will be fun the last two weeks as they're scrapping to get to the four spot in the lottery. I'm going to bring up their schedule and see if they have any games in the last two weeks against like the Bulls or the Nets or some of these other teams that are going to be down there. 21 and 61 sounds fine. I was encouraged by the A-cuff Sabonis stuff in the preseason. I watched some Kings. I do think he's going to have the ball. The time season finale. I know the Clippers don't control their pick, but Kings at Clippers last day of the season. Bill, you got to go to that. Wow. And guess who won't care about that game? The Clippers because they don't have their pick house. Where are you? You dicks do it. You can't change your pick. I'm under. Yeah. I'm fine with it. I have no problem. 19 teenage wins. I mean, I believe in Doug Christie when it comes to this under. I think he can get it done for me. Why did they bring? Bring him back. Zach didn't want to pay two coaches. Inertia. The most powerful force. And we look around the league. All the young guys. Look at Sean Sweeney in Orlando. Look at Jordan Ott in Phoenix. We finally get to see Will Hardy. Zach, do you want to do a Stephen A apology to Vivek and the Kings? No, I don't. I have nothing to apologize for. But I do wonder. I do wonder also like how many. I don't. I've lost track of how many coaches they're still paying any amount of offense. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. said to. It may not be any. Mike Brown's being paid handsomely by the Knicks. They may be done with all the. Had they broken the record for most executives who worked for them and then never got a comparable job like that ever again? Like, Vlade Divac ran the team in his. I don't even know what he's doing. He's in, like, Serbia hosting, like, the 6-10 all-sports show there or something. I don't know where he went. He'll be sitting next to Vivek at over-under five-and-a-half games this year. All right, to recap, San Antonio, 60-and-a-half, we all went over no locks. Houston, 48-and-a-half, we all went over a try-lock. Triple fave. Dallas, 33-and-a-half. I went over. House went over. Zach went under. Memphis, 30-and-a-half, we all went over. New Orleans, 28-and-a-half, we all went under. OKC. You know what? I'm going to lock that one. House and I overlock. Zach just an over. Minnesota, over, over for me and Zach, under for House. That is 46-and-a-half. Denver, 48-and-a-half. House and I went over. Zach, in one of the most shocking betrayals in the history of this podcast, under on Jokic. Portland, 41-and-a-half, we all went under. Utah, 37-and-a-half. I already regret this one. I went under. You guys went over. Lakers, over, over, over, 45-and-a-half. Zach locked it down. Golden State, under 36-and-a-half. I'm locking this. You're locking Golden State? Yeah. Under for me, under for both of you. Phoenix, under, under for me and Zach, over for House. Clippers, three unders. House locks that one down. That is under 27-and-a-half. And last but not least, the Kings, 20-and-a-half. Over, over for me and Zach. Under for House, but a regretful under. I can see the pain in his face after hearing Zach and I lay out the case. What fan base is going to be the maddest, Zach? At us collectively? Or individually. Could be one of us, could be all three of us. I think the Warriors fans are generally just really cranky right now, so they'll be cranky at anyone who took the under and cranky at anyone being optimistic to take the over. They seem pretty cranky. I think Phoenix will get cranky. I think they're just cranky in general. Portland has bigger fish to fry with El Cheapo to be cranky at us. Yeah, they can't be mad. Yeah, plus we're going to Portland for a podcast. I should have taken the over just for that. I can't do it. I can't do it with a job being backward. All right. That is it for part one. Part two is going to go up. We'll probably put it up whenever it's ready, because that's what's going to happen. Don't forget to check out Zach's, the low post. It's out. He's writing again. The fingers are working after a two-year break. You can hear House. I'm Ringer Wise, guys, tomorrow? Friday. Friday? Okay. And we'll be back for part two as soon as it's done. Thanks, guys. Oh, and thanks to Gahal and Eduardo and Chris and everybody as well. I don't have a few years with him. Ever notice lemon is everywhere, from lemon recipes to lemon-scented cleaning supplies? And when it comes to lemon-lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the Lemonade has been padding the stats, keeping Big Lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something. The sip is about to be flipped. 7Up is fighting back, swapping lemon-lime for their new lime-lemon soda. Now, lime comes first. 7Up, flip the sip. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? Zetbound Terzepatide may be able to help. 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