In this episode of the Gamecraft podcast, hosts Mitch Lasky and Blake Robbins explore the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on the video game industry, arguing that AI represents a genuine paradigm shift akin to the Copernican revolution. They emphasize the rapid pace of change, noting that GitHub commits have surged 1,400% year-over-year, driven largely by professional enterprise use, and that AI tools evolve so quickly that any primer becomes outdated within weeks. The hosts critique two opposing viewpoints: AI drive-by critics who dismiss AI after brief, unsuccessful attempts, and AI maximalists who believe games can be fully generated from a single prompt. They argue that while AI dramatically lowers the cost and speed of prototyping—enabling a 17-year-old to build a playable shooter in a weekend—the cost of engineering a hit game may remain high due to marketing and distribution expenses. Their central thesis is that AI will "hollow out the middle" of game development costs, making top-tier developers, publishers, and platforms more valuable while eroding opportunities for middle-tier games. They identify five "durable layers" of the games business that AI cannot easily reach, favoring incumbents with existing users, IP, and data. The hosts warn that the surface debate about job losses and slop distracts from the deeper question of who will control the layers above the model. Ultimately, they urge the industry to embrace AI as a competitive necessity, especially given the rapid adoption in non-Western markets, while acknowledging that the technology requires careful orchestration to produce professional results.
[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to the Gamecraft podcast on your host, Mitch Lasky. I'm Blake Robbins, and this is a podcast about the modern history of the video game business. Episode five, thoughts on navigating the AI future. [MUSIC] Oh man. This one, this one, I feel like we gave it to teaser in episode one, but I'm excited to do a full episode on this. Hopefully this one will be a little more rigorous than the intro to episode one. But look, we've been pretty critical of the game's industry backlash against the use of AI and game production. And in this episode, I think we're going to make an attempt to expand on our argument that AI is a technological innovation with significant implications for the game's business. And it may be bigger still, right? It may be a real paradigm shift in the way that software and media are constructed in the modern world. And even before going on, I want to talk a little bit about what I mean by paradigm shift. I think a lot of people sort of pay lip service to that. Etymologically, it goes back really to the early 60s when Thomas Kuhn, the historian of science, wrote the structure of scientific revolutions. And in that book, he talks about changes in the way that a whole mindset around a problem space changed. And so, for example, when the Copernican view of the universe replaced the Galilean view of the universe and all of a sudden, the Sun no longer revolved around the Earth, but the Earth revolved around the Sun or the discovery of oxygen, where before they thought that there was this substance in flammable objects like called phlogiston that burned and then suddenly they realized, no, there was a chemical reaction going on. And these things completely changed the perceptual way of approaching a problem space. And I think that AI in software is really worthy of being called a paradigm shift in a certain way because it does require complete change in the way we approach the problem space. So, we wanted to discuss the parts of the game's business that we think will continue to be valuable and investible in an AI era. And we also wanted to identify some of the AI tooling that we are aware of that we've seen in some cases that some of the companies we work with are using beyond the obvious ones like codex and claw code that I think everyone is aware of. Yeah, I think it's also worth, I mean, just your paradigm shift is 100% real. I mean, you and I feel this in our day to day of just where we sit and we're watching how fast the traditional software world that you and I interact with completely change. But I think it's worth like two disclaimers. One is like this world is changing faster than ever. You know, even, you know, who knows about the time we're done recording this episode, what's been released or announced? Like, you know, we're talking how the rate of change in this world is I'm like anything I've ever seen, you know, and then the second is it's also everything that we're talking about is the worst it's ever going to be. And so whatever capabilities we're talking about of AI and production or in game creation or any of that, it's the worst it's ever going to be like and the past few months, we've already seen that to be true of just how fast it's all continues to expand. So I just want to say those two real quickly before we jump too far yet to provide a sort of tangible example of that in February, I wrote a primer for my family on like how to use code how to use cloud code and how to use cloud code work. And I put a little disclaimer in it saying like probably don't read this after like March 30th. And actually that turned out to be perfectly right. Like after March 30th, like everything changed again and like now some of some different tools are sort of better serving that particular use case. And again, that was a period of maybe 45 days. So like this stuff ages like milk in the sun. And I think we you have to just take that under consideration and really get yourself up to speed if you're listening to this episode, you know, in the future as opposed to in real time for everything may happen. But even despite all that, we we actually like created this episode or drafted this episode with the idea of what's actually going to be timeless. And so it's part of why I'm so excited. This one is we tried to think much more like what are the things that aren't going to change or what are the responses to the truth. And so I'm excited to really dive in. Cool. Well, let's talk about the intent of this episode since intent is an important part of getting AI to do stuff correctly. We'll we'll we'll take that same path in terms of talking about introducing this episode. So part of the intent of this episode is really an effort to respond to what I really hear as this frequent critique from artists and programmers that I know who've done what I call AI drive bias where like they decided for a couple of days or an afternoon or maybe a week to try and get some work done. They fumbled around with the tools. They didn't really get what they needed out of it or they they spent the time and it didn't produce the results that they wanted. And from that experience that drive by experience they've sort of come to the conclusion that AI is dumb and that it's just another crypto metaverse level distraction that the industry doesn't need to worry about or even should resist. And I think we both really fundamentally disagree with that position. And we really think that this is real. And I would say the look, here's what's real. Github disclosed recently that commits are up 1,400% year over year. 14X year over year. Now that's current run rate, right? And it's actually accelerating. And their expectation is that it may actually be higher than 14X year over year for the full year. Now Github is not a startup. Github is a repository platform that is operating already at insane scale. I mean, they were already, I mean, it's something like two and 275 billion commits a day or a week. I can't remember what the number was. But I mean, we're talking about one of the most scaled platforms in existence. And it increased in volume by 14 times. Now, you know, a critic might say, well, that's just a bunch of amateur programmers throwing AI slop at the wall. But you know what? That's not possible. There's not enough amateur programmers out there to create that level of growth. And so this has to be the vast majority of this increase has to be professional enterprise usage. So look, that that is real. And there's no way you're going to get to that kind of growth without the code being generated primarily by artificial intelligences. Yeah, I mean, look, it's just even anecdotal on that. Like you have the anthropic team saying that almost all of the code for quad code, which is their main product that's sort of out there on the enterprise side is being all written with. Yeah, like they're literally like the main guy Boris is on bot gas saying, like, I can't remember the time last time I hand wrote any of the code. Like, I'm talking with my agent. And then it's writing all this for me. And so, and you see this, like time and time again, if you talk to any founder in Silicon Valley, they're like, yeah, you know, we use AI on 70% of our code, 80% of our code. And most of the ones that that are and even at 100% is just because the way they architect and they're like working to get to 100% of their code. So, you know, give it give it six months or a year and that might be 100% true. And so, yeah, I mean, even in and I weird some of those yesterdays, like even if you take the most skeptical view and you're like, oh, it's only 10% of this is real, which you and I both think that's that's insane. But still, even if you do that, it's like, okay, it's still up, you know, 140% of you over year, which would be bonkers at the scale that that gets that. Yeah, it's crazy. So, look, the fact that the majority of game developers and we'll get to the majority of game developers later, because there's some interesting data back from GDC from some surveys that were done of game industry professionals at the show. But the majority of game developers are essentially shunning what the rest of the software industry is adopting like an earnest. And that should make us all a little bit worried, right? So, that's number one. Another part of the intent of this episode is to sound an alarm bell about competitive necessity. You know, in our Istanbul episode, the last episode that we recorded and in our prior season episodes on China and on the globalization of the game's business, we've hopefully expressed that the historical Western and Japanese dominance of the game's business is really being challenged in new markets and from new markets. And most of those markets don't have moral issues with AI. And if, and I think as we suspect is true, AI is going to be a long-term transformative technology. Refusal to learn and embrace it is really going to magnify these competitive threats that we're already facing from new markets, from new entrants into this market. So I think that's another intent of ours in recording this. And then I think it's also a response to the AI maximalists. So don't get it wrong from us. Like we're not here, you know, talking about sort of, you know, let's just surrender to our AI overlords. I think there's a group of people out there who don't know much about the game's business, but who know a lot about AI, who think that the the game's business is just going to turn into basically. write a prompt and you can get a whole game from a prompt or nonsense like that. And I think we don't believe that. And I think, frankly, if the current state of things is any indication, making these technologies work in a professional development environment to create real entertainment experiences, whether linear or interactive is no small feat. It takes a lot of orchestration. It takes a lot of work to get the tools to do what you want them to do. Now, when you get it right, you can produce magic. But it is a struggle. And I can tell you just having gone through this in my Hollywood production company, just trying to get scenes that are coherent out of these things without visual hallucinations and other things is a struggle. But it can be done. And when you get it and when you get those workflows working properly, the productivity increase is just insane. And the ability to make really interesting content without the same cost structure is absolutely there and valid. Yeah. And look, I, this might sound bad. But, you know, so much of our industry, and let's say, especially mobile games is built on almost arbitrages. And it's hard to think of an area where you can achieve these arbitrages by just simply being a little bit ahead of the curve and this curve moment. And so this is another piece here, which is, I don't know, if you're a Turkish studio and I've talked to many, they are for sure embracing all these things. And they're for sure tinkering and how to do you and and make new ads and all those pieces. And so there's flaws, but it is also will be rewarded if you take the time to go and actually push through. So yeah, and it's frustrating. As again, as an amateur on the sidelines trying to use some of these tools and understand them, look, the LLM frontier models are moving targets, right? I mean, we went from Opus 4.6 from Anthropic and we went to 4.7. And in some cases, because they didn't have enough compute to handle it, it kind of regressed a little bit and it stopped being really as good at some of the two things that it was good at before. In the meantime, OpenAI released a GPT 5.5 and, you know, on the on the on the high reasoning setting and the fast setting, it's really, really performant where 5.3 wasn't really that good. So, again, these things are moving targets. You got to be incredibly nimble and you really have to kind of get in and understand them as a native in order to make them work. But again, when you do and you get the care and feeding of them properly aligned, they can really do wonderful things. So, I think finally, and I think most importantly, what we want to talk about is not just sort of what's happening, but also what we think is going to happen in the future. What incumbent companies, platforms, and skills are going to survive or even thrive in this new paradigm. The power of the frontier model LLMs and the workflow harnesses to disrupt existing work is clear, right? But where are the spaces that these models can't reach that won't be that easy for the LLMs to swallow? Like, what is going to have their have its value and importance magnified in this new paradigm shift that was perhaps undervalued before? And I think this is going to be both good and bad for certain parts of the industry as we will discuss, right? I think people who think, well, like maintaining the status quo or whatever is the secret to resisting the intrusion of AI into the game space, be careful what you wish for because in many ways it may be and I think we'll argue that it will be in many cases that the incumbents and that the power centers in the game's business that we are not entirely comfortable with currently are going to get even stronger and more powerful in an AI enabled future. Yeah, yeah, look, I when we were talking about this episode, I just thought you're framing of what's going to endure was just a really smart way to approach this overall topic. I think you and I could sit here and obviously talk about AI tooling and talk about, you know, how you and I think it's going to change a lot of things, but I actually think it's more interesting to be like, what's not going to change or what's going to get stronger? And so yeah, I mean, maybe we just talked about like what is overall thesis? We've sort of danced around it a little bit, but like what is the thesis? So I'll propose and you can hammer on it, I think, but I think the thesis that I'd like to operate under for this episode is that AI is going to hollow out the middle, the big middle of the game development cost stack. And it's going to leave the top tier of developers, publishers, creatives, and platforms more valuable than before. And this may have the effect of further eroding the opportunity for middle tier games because it's going to essentially pull the ladder up to a certain extent when it comes to distribution, funding, publishing opportunities, etc. And so that's the broad, I think that's the broad philosophical thesis. And I think breaking it down a little bit, I'd say we're going to see a vast diminishing, vast, lessening of the cost of attempts. Right? So I think, you know, you and I've talked about this quite a bit, and I think you have a perspective on this, but like you're going to get a lot more shots on goal for the same cost. The ability to iterate before you commit to full production. Yep. So it's going to be, I mean, the speed, not even just price or resource allocation, the speed to have attempts should collapse closer to zero than like, you know, I don't know, you and I know current side plans are, you know, not even, we're talking not even two, three years ago companies were raising, you know, $30 million to go and release a vertical slice in two years. That is, if that is still your mindset at all, you were just wrong. Like we were not going back to that world. The speed and the number of attempts you can have in this current moment is bonkers. So while the cost of prototyping is collapsing, the cost of actually engineering a hit may not be, and it may end up being just as expensive to take a hit to market, to fully produce and market and distribute a hit as it has been in the past. But the hope would be that you'd have a lot more certainty about audience acceptance and the ability for that hit to actually be a hit rather than the kind of throw wet spaghetti at the wall that we currently experience at a lot of go to market in the video game business is evidenced by things like Concord. Do you think that's true where my, my own interpretation of what you just said is is like, you and I might, my default to assume cost will go down on the production side. But whatever those costs might be, let's say overall budget might stay the same because it might get filled up in marketing or those other areas. Is that how you're interpreting the cost of the hit space or you think even production might stay the same budget? I'm looking at it more as a percentage of overall spend, right? In the sense that let's say you had 30 million available, I mean, I'm thinking that in the in the AI enabled the world, and I think we're already starting to see this. So this is really not that much of a projection because I already hear venture capitalists talking about this to their portfolio companies, which is that in an AI enabled world, you're not getting the hundred billion. You're getting 30, you know, and I mean through through a couple of rounds. And so essentially you're going to need to make that, you're going to need to make what you would have made before for a hundred for 30 and also get it to market. And so while we basically efficiencies actually enabled by AI, and we'll talk about some of those in terms of the customer acquisition and marketing spend, you're still going to end up not really saving money, if you will. Maybe, you'll save the money that you didn't get, but you're not going to save the money that you did get. Yeah, fair. Yes, yes, cool. That's that's perfect. And so that's number one. Number two, I think there's we're going to talk about this in much, much greater detail, but there's there we've identified basically five what we call durable layers of the games business that will explore later in this podcast. The places that AI won't be able to reach as easily. And I think one of the things we're going to talk about is the fact that those areas are particularly favorable to companies that already have users IP and data at scale, right? So maybe less favorable to startups and more favorable to incumbents. And then the final part of the thesis is that the surface debate that AI will take creative jobs, flood distribution channels with slop, replace junior engineers is actually real. I mean, we're not polyannas about this. We don't think that this is some kind of miracle that's going to lead to full employment and whatever. It's like, this is going to be disruptive as all paradigm shifts are, as paradigm shifts have historically been even in the video game business itself. But those concerns are distracting from the deeper question, which is who's going to control the layers above the model? And it's those layers above the model that I think we're going to spend the majority of this episode talking about because those are the durable layers. And those are the things where values really going to be created beyond just cost savings and efficiency. Yeah. I mean, you just covered what I perceived to be like the real gamecraft take on AI and games. I think a lot of people obviously talked to us in private about how are we interpreting the current moment. And so I feel very good about like this as a rough
outline to go through and talk about our current stance on a lot of this. Cool. So let's start with a thought experiment, right? And it's just a little goofy, but we'll do it anyway. Here's the scenario. You got a 17-year-old girl on a single weekend in April of 2026 sitting in her bedroom, vibe codes, a working, you know, first-person shooter prototype in UEFN, maybe Roblox, that rates the core 3D assets using Meshie or Cube, Dubs the voicework with 11 labs, and writes gameplay scripts in cursor or clawed code and ships a playable build before Sunday dinner, right? That is not a fantasy, right? That is a possibility in the current world. You'd need skills, but you wouldn't need extraordinary skills. So given that that's a possibility that didn't exist until really this moment, the question isn't really any longer, will AI affect games, right? I think that's an absolutely ridiculous and species question at the moment. Of course, AI will affect games. The question's really, if all that development is now cheap, what is valuable? Yes. Yes. That is a real scenario, like that is, you know, I don't even know if it's a thought experiment that we could probably go and join a random Discord server where kids are building in Roblox and AI or UEFN and AI or AI and games. You could probably see some amazing, amazing things that people are making, and they would all probably say they're doing it after hours, after their job. They probably work some random job. What that, like you said, it's development is now cheap. We can debate what that really means, but like at the end of the day, we should assume that the cost of one of these games rounds closer to zero than certainly the $100 million budget they were getting before. But I think it does really open up back to that question of like, okay, then where does value actually accrue? Like, if we have infinite games that are literally like any idea that you want to bring to market, like if that's always there, and this is maybe a controversial aside, I actually don't know if there's been a shortage of good games to begin with. This is sort of the overall topic that you and I have discussed, which is like, there are already probably too many games on Steam. There are already too many games on the app. I think that's the ironic thing here, because you hear all of this criticism about AI leading to oversupply and slop. I would argue that we already have oversupply and slop without AI. So as determined by the voting machine or the weighing machine of the market. Yes, yes. Of where dollars are allocated by consumers. Some long tail person might say, no, no, no, like we need more of this specific style of game. Like, well, like the market is saying they really care about these top five games. And so it doesn't really matter if you flood it with another 100,000 games or a million games. There might be some stuff that trickle through, but the core of like how games right through or accrue value, I think largely stays the same in our framing. Yeah, but I think it's worth interrogating what changes when costs really collapse in this way, right? Because I think traditionally, and we've been arguing this since episode one of the GameCraft podcast four years ago, which is that market forces drive and constrain a lot of the creative choices that people make in games. And they pretend that that's not happening, but it's happening, right? It's like you make games in established genres because you know you can sell them, right? You make games with particular kinds of art styles because you think that that's what your audience wants. You make games of a certain length and duration, games with monetization strategies, games with certain pricing, target audiences and make them for certain platforms. All of those choices are market driven. Whether you like it or not, they're all market driven. And maybe in some sense, you're deciding to be contrarian and you're making a choice that's not consensus. And of course, we know the sort of bill girly theory that consensus, non-consensus correct is the box you actually want to be in because that's where you produce usually the highest returns. But cost has always been a market driving constraint in the video games business. And when that starts to disappear, the ability to make different choices, the cost of those different choices, make me really change considerably and that equation may change considerably. And I think that's the exciting part of this. Yep. By the way, one very simple example of this is we should almost assume any game that gets any meaningful traction can be cross platform on day zero. And that like, the ability to port games nowadays is like, okay, it's like, yeah, what, there you go, it's going to be on every platform. Port and localized. I mean, you know, because that's the other thing. Right? Exactly. Okay. So before we get into what survives part of this, I do think we want to at least talk a little bit about the fact that the backlash against AI that we're seeing in the video game business and that, you know, we heard from people at GDC, et cetera, isn't totally illogical, right? We mentioned this before, right? This is going to be really disruptive. We're not here to sugarcoat the risks to the current cohort of artists and programmers and designers because those risks are real and they're probably inevitable that they're going to produce dislocation and disruption. But that's what happens when technology innovation creates a paradigm shift. I mean, we saw this when 3D games in ubiquitous GPUs kind of came into the into the picture, didn't wipe out the market for 2D artists, but it changed their utility and value in the ecosystem in a meaningful way. It increased the value of 3D programmers and 3D art skills, modelers who didn't really exist in the 2D world of sprites and, you know, the textures and things. So mobile similarly didn't wipe out core gaming genres. But it did open up the industry to competition in particular markets where core game patterns and platforms were not as competitively solid. So, you know, for, let's say, older people or, you know, people casual gamers who didn't, who wouldn't go and go through the pain and suffering of buying a CD-ROM or downloading something from steam or even creating a steam account in the first place. But they play an iPhone game, for example. Or, you know, emerging markets like Turkey, like the Middle East, like other developing markets around the world where access to consoles and PCs was a cost prohibitive idea. And therefore, the mobile phone, which you already had, became the ubiquitous gaming device. So, yeah, it didn't, it was additive rather than necessarily, like, subtractive in that way. But all of these paradigm shifts are disruptive. And they are, and they all affect the value of labor because they change the value proposition for skills. Yes. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's just driving home exactly what you said before, which is just, you know, games are driven by the markets. And the market-driven constraint is what drives everything and works, experiences, massive paradigm shifts, as you said. And so, like, I really want to underscore just what you said of like, we didn't just read it and wipe out 2D artists. It just changed their utility and value and ecosystem. By the way, like weirdly, and this is maybe nostalgia or whatever, like almost come full circle where like, maybe in this current moment, 2D artists and 2D art style is maybe like the highest it's ever been since its previous peak. And so, I don't want to like also like, like, they all have their value in their place. But it is just important to say like how these changes impact things in the short and long run, like they all have their overall role. But of course, the utility and values can change. But the, the web is that, you know, this, let's get to the GDC 2026 survey because I think this was super instructive in this regard. 36% of game survey attendees admitted to using generative AI at work, which in my opinion is dreadfully low, right? 36%. I mean, you obviously have said on many boards, you have ran your own companies. If you were running, I don't know, let's just say Jam dad and current moment and you have 36% of your, your engineers or your team was using AI right now. What would your response is? I would be burning the boats, right? I mean, that's the way, but that's the way I ran the company to begin with. It's like we had, we were the most successful, you know, forgotten technology, but there was this wireless application protocol called WAP, which was basically like the HTML of mobile phone, pre-i phone mobile phones. And we had like a multi million user WAP game called Gladiator that was like incredibly successful and that we could probably have turned into some kind of a limited advertising player, whatever. And upon the launch of J2ME and Brew, which were coding platforms that let you make applications, we saw there was a future where we would be able to actually make standalone games that were not going to be bound by this hideous WAP technology. And we literally just incinerated all of the success that we had had to date and said, we're moving 100% into this new world. And I would have done the same thing today if I was running a studio, right? I would basically be like, okay, like, I mean, I may not go to the same degree that some of these corporations were seeing or going where they're basically rewarding people for burning tokens. Because I was always a bit of a cost-hawk, but I would say that I would be embracing this with 100%. So I think beyond that 36% that said that admitted that they were using generative AI in their work, 52% said that it was having a negative effect on the industry. I'm a joy.
- A majority of people. - Said it had a negative effect on me. - Negative effect on me. Oh man. And it's hard to reconcile that with just the other world that you and I are in, just like the normal software world. And the person who is maybe at most risks of having their jobs displaced, isn't even the artist. It's actually the software engineer in the current moment. - That's right. - And yet, Silicon Valley, the founders and teams that we're talking to, the people that are most excited about it, are the software engineers. And so it's a little bit of a paradox. And they're like, what, these are the people who should be the most concerned that they're going away. And it's like, no, they all feel the efficiency gains. And they all see like, oh, I don't need to go and recreate this like, actual system setup and, you know, built a compiler. But I know all of it. Like, it and so that's the, - Yeah, it's hard to do. - It's a little harder for me to do it. - But I think it's worth trying to, I think we need to try and understand it. And I think the reason that I think it's important to think about why this is happening is, I think it's important to understand why this is happening because the industry has been through a series of crazy dislocations pre-AI, right? Like moving into this, like with AI coming at the end of this period of, you know, going back really many, many years to like, you know, the labor disputes that happened between labor and management over, let's say, over time and the categorization of software workers as managerial and therefore not subject to overtime. And then they could so that they could be worked to death during crunch time and the settlement with electronic arts and all the things that happened way back where there was a lot of exploitation of labor and in the games business, you know, you had all kinds of dislocations moving into this current environment with the funding of games drying up. And, you know, this is the, the pre-AI swap of trying to get a game noticed, an indie game noticed, it's like there've been, you know, that it's just, you know, beating after beating that sort of the lower rungs of employees in the video game industry have taken over the last decade and a half, two decades, frankly. And given that, I think AI coming in and sort of delivering the coup de gras is understandable, right? It's understandable why someone would have this response to this and Y52% of respondents that the, at GDC would have said that it was having a negative impact on the industry. Again, I think that is a perfectly rational, if wrong, take on AI. - I saw that. - So look, I think there's been, let's just quickly list the objections and go through them one by one. We won't spend a whole lot of time on this, but like labor displacement, 28% of GDC respondents in that survey said that they had been laid off in the prior two years, 28%. Now, we've heard numbers as high as a third, and I would argue that perhaps some of that third that I think is probably the more appropriate number, they didn't even show up at GDC to look for a job, so they weren't even included in the survey, right? This is the 28% who said that they'd been laid off in the last two years, we're still looking for work in the industry. - Yeah. - So I think that number could even be higher than there was a little bit of kind of a survivorship bias if you will in that 28% number. So look, developers connect AI with things like outsourcing, with things like RIFs, and I think that's not necessarily been the case broadly in the video game business today, but if you look out in the broader software industry, there's companies and software that have been very upfront about the fact that they're doing significant layoffs because of AI efficiency. And so it's not, again, irrational for programmers and others inside of the video game business to view AI as threatening in that regard. And I think that's fair. We've seen the SAG and AFTERA on strike for 11 months in 2025 over this interactive media agreement primarily where there was a lot of AI language, right? A lot of stuff in there about the restrictions on the use of likenesses, of digital replicas, how those were gonna be compensated, reporting on usage of AI in, you know, reactor replacement or voice replacement, et cetera. And, you know, those were hard one rights and they, the strike ended. And I would argue in a lot of ways and I've had this experience before. It's like, I ask, I say, didn't you, where'd you evolved with what is it? Like, didn't you advise on like a, the right, was it writer's guilt? It was 20, 2007, the writer's guilt were going on strike and I was asked by a couple of the strike captains to just sort of, you know, quietly consult with them about their technology strategy, sort of the future of technology. And I got on the phone with them and I talked, I said, here's what I would do if I were you and I outlined some fairly in your face negotiating tactics regarding future technologies. And they came back to me and they were like, no man, we just need, we just want an eighth of a percent more on DVD sales. This was in 2007, right? And I was like, look, with all due respect. It's like, I appreciate that, but like, you need to understand that like DVDs may not be long for this world. And this was on the eve of streaming and they were so backward looking and worried about now in the new agreement, I would say they've gotten a little bit more religion and some of the people that were involved in the strike, in the pre-strike negotiations and the ultimate collective bargaining agreement that came out of it, like John August, for example, are very technologically sophisticated. But those people weren't around in 2007 when I was working with the WGA. And I have to say that they were, they consistently played defense. They don't really play, it's like, there were probably ways that they could have negotiated a much more interesting and forward looking sort of use of their digital persona. But instead, it was all about no, no, no, you can't do this, you can't do that, you can't do this, you can't do that. Instead of like, how is this a new market for my likeness? And how can I profit from the use of my likeness? - Yes, yes. And look, unfortunately, these markets are efficient and consumers get what they want on some level and so, or the market demands it. And I mean, you're seeing it with the latest C-Dance, video model and things of like, people will just abuse it or take these likeness even if it's against these type of things and look, it's just a game of whack-a-mole on some level and it's, I don't support that necessarily, but it is a natural response to the market. And so, yeah, I sort of understand the defense, but also the world has changed. We are in a paradigm shift. And so, you need to think more of like, what's the next 10, 20 years going to look like rather than more of a current mobile. - Yeah, that's exactly right. Another objection that we hear consistently, and I hear this mostly from lawyers, which I'm always a little bit suspect of because I went through this again, earlier in the video game business in the 90s, when the guilds, the Hollywood guilds were sort of saber rattling about the fact that they wanted to get involved in the video game business and all the lawyers that I knew were scrambling around trying to be like, oh, we gotta go sign deal, we gotta get EA to go sign a deal with SAG, we gotta get EA to go sign a deal with the director's guild or whatever. That was it ended up being complete nonsense. So I'm a little bit, whenever I see the lawyers coming in and saying, oh, this is the thing we need to worry about, I'm always a little suspicious because it's like, these are things that are gonna make more work for lawyers as opposed to more sort of more general value for the industry. But anyway, you know, there is a larger question here in the way that LLMs were trained and how that will have copyright implications potentially going forward, right? Obviously, these models were not trained exclusively on open source data. They were trained on proprietary data as well. And so the concept of copyright and the concept of authorship is still very, very much to be negotiated in terms of some of these things, whether or not there's gonna be any resolution in my lifetime. I'm not entirely sure, maybe in your lifetime. - I don't know. I mean, look, you have such an interesting view because I'm maybe listeners don't know the full context of like, you were a lawyer and intellectual property lawyer. - Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so I imagine you're sitting at a seat of like, wow, this is, you know, the stuff we used to fight over is like, I don't even know it, say it's so tiny relative to like this, is this is like people stealing full catalogs of movies and full on uploading them and training on them. And yeah, I mean, I'm not nearly smart enough on the IP law side of like, you know, what is protected and what is this is actually protected? - Yeah, whatever, without getting into the needs of this stuff, it's like, I would say that look, we had the sort of the similar thing happen in the early days of social media and of the video on the internet and all these other things. And we ended up with the DMCA. And for all its warts and all its flaws, the DMCA basically got everybody to chill and the internet took off as a media experience, right? And I think it's very likely that we're gonna see something very similar happen here, right? That we're gonna figure out some kind of a negotiated settlement that's going to probably not get everybody exactly what they want, but is going to at least provide a layer of certainty where we know we can utilize these models within certain parameters. And that's exactly what happened with media on the web, right? The DMCA basically came in and it addressed piracy and IP rights and other things like that in linear media and YouTube and TikTok just took off within
that from legal framework. It's like, okay, good. You know what? You can't upload full movies that you ripped off of, you know, whatever pirate server you are working on and post them on YouTube. You can't use copyrighted music in your videos. Now, yeah, look, a lot of people complain about that. And if you've ever gotten a takedown notice for inadvertently having a song on on the radio in the background while on your YouTube video, you'll recognize that this is, you know, it's pretty draconian. But you know what? If you can operate within the legal framework, you can do fine. And that's, I'm sure going to happen here too. So I don't think this is, I think that this is a bunch of sound and fury signifying nothing from a group of lawyers who've stand to profit from a lot of litigation around this. And at the end of the day, we're going to have either a legislative or legal court, you know, court-driven settlement to this problem. And we're just going to go on with it and we're going to understand what the boundaries are. For sure. We talked about AI slop and how AI slop is just to, you know, meet the new slop same as the old slop. I think the market solves this problem. And I think the market's currently solving this problem. And yeah, we'll reward the good content and the slop will just either be like a thing that people meme and make jokes about or it just goes away completely. Like it's not going to get attention. Yeah. And look, we are going to talk about this a little bit later in the next section when we talk about one of the things that we think survives, but I think curation is going to be of even greater importance. And I think it's something that some of the more open platforms like steam and the iOS app store, which are currently in a slop situation with, you know, 20 plus thousand games annually coming to market could do a much better job of this and may actually be rewarded for limiting access to content from, you know, and curtailing some of that activity as opposed to continuing to foster it. And then finally, like this whole concept, this last bit of, which this really offends me, which is this sort of disclosure as a scarlet letter, right? Like this is the steam approach currently, right? Which is like, let's shame the people that are using AI and making their content. And I think what's what's so absurd about it. I mean, look, it's as misguided and hypocritical as it was in Hawthorne's novel of the same name, right? That 90% of Google Google Cloud reported that they that their game industry survey indicated that 90% of games were had had at least some AI code in in them, right? And it's invisible. Nobody on, if you didn't disclose it, right? There's no way anybody would figure it out. It just looks like code to, you know, there's no way you can really tell, at least not from playing the game, right? But where you can tell is if there was, if there was, you know, generative AI art or generative AI sound or music or voices or whatever. And so it's that 10% right? That's that's that's sort of the lightning rod for all this attention. Whereas like everything that's going on under the surface at this 90% of just code generated by AI is largely invisible. And I think this disclosure thing is just stupid. And it's it's it's really, I think long term, not in the interest of steam or of these other platforms to basically pander to this leadite community and like and make this an issue of morality around whether or not you're using AI or not using AI in the generation of as if as if somehow you're better, you're a better or worse person for having having created it. It's like we should be we should be evaluating these things on the quality of the games. And I mean, it's is pure virtue. You say doing like it would be like the apps or having a disclaimer of when I clicked on the Uber app of like they used AI to make your app. Well, great. I don't care. Like the Z app work is a great service. Like, okay, I like that doesn't mean anything to me of like, Oh, wow. And you know, DoorDash uses AI like, wow, I don't I don't care. Like why do I care about the individual game if they use that for coding? And I and I just is a lot of trying to appeal to the crowd. I get maybe it's the way to frame that is in which is they're just like a lot of people are angry and upset for a whole bunch of reason, maybe some of what we just discussed. But to just like make it so you're singling out what is inevitably going to be 100% of games using AI seems really short-sighted. Like, yeah, again, we should just assume by default that all of them are going to use it in the same way that like an accountant used Excel once they moved to that. Like, yes, that's going to be a thing. And so we're just going to assume every game is going to have disclaimers on it now. All right, let's get to the five categories that survive. So let's just jump in. I'll tell you what they are and then we'll go through them one by one and you can tell me where I'm wrong about some of these and we'll get into. I'm excited. Here are the five. The five things that survive are trust, context, distribution, curated taste and liability. Right? Those are the five categories. I think that not only survive the AI paradigm shift, but actually are enabled and thrive post AI paradigm shift that are even more valuable in the future than they are in the present where they're already pretty valuable. And the TLDR here is AI is going to amplify some of the trends that we've been talking about on this podcast for the last four seasons that we think are the really significant aspects of the industry. I think those things are going to become even more significant. Yeah, I mean, look, and we'll get into each of these, but a lot of this comes back to the platforms, which is what you and I have been talking about from day zero, which is actually trying to build a real business, actually trying to build a platform, actually aggregate users, not just trying to build a single game. And I don't know if a single game studio has almost any of these traits. And so I'm excited to go and go and do to them. Cool. I think I wanted to give a quick hat tip to Nate Jones, who is where I kind of got the original idea to think about this. He put out a YouTube video in which he talked about this in a more abstract and fashion, talking about software broadly. It wasn't exactly it had nothing to do with games. But I thought his framework of how to think about it in terms of, you know, what actually is defensible and what's not defensible, what LLMs can reach and what LLMs can't reach was really interesting. I kind of mapped his idea, if you will, onto the games business and that's sort of where these five categories come from. So let's start with trust. And what do we mean by trust? So broadly, this is like certified apps and services, payment trust, age verification, federated identity, AI cannot manufacture credentialed trust. And so any repository of credentialed trust, again, whether that's economic, whether that's, you know, personal identity, et cetera, is going to be outside the reach of the LLM. And therefore, the owners of that and the people who can profit from its use become more valuable low-key in the equation. So mapping that onto games, you know, the app stores broadly, roblox, and particularly now that they are implementing age verification, same with discord, the ESRB and ratings and anti-cheat, you know, payment rails we've talked about, all the sort of human touching aspects of this where it's like, prove to me that you're human or by proving that you're human, you are entitled, you have certain entitlements that you don't have as an agent, right? As an AI software agent. And so I think all of those things become increasingly valuable. Will you do include like IP and that side here, or does that fall more in the curated tastes in context? We're going to get I think the sort of AI, the end, you know, sort of the IP end of it is going to I think really fall more into context than into trust. Although, obviously it straddles it a bit because you trust the brands, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's my yeah, in the same way when you go to a grocery store, you might buy the name brand over it, over the other thing. Exactly, that is an aspect of trust. But I'm talking more here about sort of like proving that you're human, right? And supplying attributes of your humanness to the to systems in order to get certain entitlements. For sure. Another example here would be like stripe on the payment side of like it, you know, okay, this is a trusted way to go through this may visa master guard, whatever you want to use as the example of like that is going to continue to enter and be valuable in this next phase. Absolutely. So who are the winners in that case? In the games business, it's the user aggregation platforms because the user aggregation platforms have all of this, you know, they have this data and they can either they can they can either federated or they can use it internally. So, you know, you have steam, the app stores, the console certification, like the the ability to certify again, an aspect of trust is the ability to certify that games are that they have a source of origin that is authentic. So for example, that a game that's labeled as a game from electronic arts or that's called FIFA or whatever back to your brand, brand trust question is actually coming from that particular source, right? So I think that's an important aspect of this. And also the ability to certify that software is virus free, you know, is relatively bug free.
that the consoles is a role the consoles have historically played right or Apple has played where you have to Submit your game for certification and it goes through a testing process so that the end user has a certain kind of good house keeping seal of approval Right That's an aspect of trust as well And I think those platforms that are able to Sort of produce that trust and aggregate it are going to become really increasingly valuable in this new world Yeah, it's funny my mind. I'm almost also goes to like They're gonna they're gonna play such a role in what gets approved as like the gatekeepers Not even in the curation standpoint, but just from a like there is trust in that this is a game This is not malicious, you know in a world where you're flooding the app stores Or these aggregated platforms. There's a lot of trust that's gonna be baked in and you know The content disclosure stuff is one example of this and maybe to the negative but It is their attempt of trying to instill trust on the platform. Yeah, I think it's I think it's it is a signal that they See themselves as a trust broker. It's it's a misguided in my opinion use of that trust brokerage But I do think it it is it is directionally correct Yeah, like they were trying to wield their stance in in the market of how do we how do we continue to put our finger on the scale maybe because players were asking for that But yeah, okay number two is context and so what do we mean by context? We mean and again context has a very specific meaning within the AI world in terms of sort of like loading context right It's like establishing for the AI the parameters of the The problem space that you're going to then interrogate so We mean it in a you know in in We're sort of using that definition a bit and also sort of broadening it a little bit and I think so the things that would fit in this Bucket are like proprietary systems of record right outside the games business for example corporate data lakes notion Databases right like other kinds of personal and and corporate database repositories that store systems of record social graphs behavioral data expert content for example like you know content that is unique to a certain community the skills that are unique to that community and I'd also include story universes in there right because they provide for example to the Lord of the Rings right is like thousands of pages of context right that could be used for a variety of purposes and so all of those things are really interesting in the games business We're going to see things like live ops telemetry player behavior monetization data community CRM Again store universes. I think really important IP catalogs and Creator and modding communities right? I think all of those are going to be sources of context that are going to become extremely valuable if they can be aggregated and if they could be utilized and deployed in this future Yes, I mean I think of context in the simplest way is like which games or platforms have the most like Have the easiest ability to reconstruct who they think you are or or who does they think? Their player is and like the thing that's going to be increasingly valuable that sits on top of delay in the actual models themselves is like memory and like oh Mitch really likes going on win streaks or he churns the moment he goes on three game lost streaks and Almost player personalization on some level and so all these things are gonna get supercharged in an AI world Yeah, and you know the context of like who is this player? What type of player based do we even have? You know who are they friends with all those things and and a lot of this ties together But even just like their age and you know all all those pieces really come together and until like supercharged They are and that's what they're really good at help customize experiences Like there's a whole bunch of different Potential use cases for this, but I also would wouldn't ignore the fact that things like cannon rails for example for You know IP are an important kind of context that's gonna be really valuable because again If you have a UGC platform with AI enablement that is capable of generating new stories and existing universes You're gonna want the context of what's allowable and what's not allowable what like you know I mean we've certainly read enough fan fiction and We've read fan fiction that call it tricecolor within lines and we've read fan fiction that takes certain liberties with the You know, let's say sexual orientation of the characters or whatever and I think those kinds of things being able to Own and proscribe them is gonna be an important aspect of context in an AI world Yep, so let's move on to distribution Our favorite topic the king the king still so look the general way of thinking About this broadly in software is storefronts social platforms marketplaces code repositories all of these You know, loke. I have distribution are going to be I think elevated in a way that we can't even currently imagine because Ultimately at the end of the day It's finding stuff is really really interesting I actually I've had an interesting conversations lately with some really smart people about What the future of SEO is right search engine optimization when you're Searching effectively through an LLM in chatting with an LLM and that LLM is frozen in time And then has to go and out to the web for current context How how do you influence that search in the way that you have historically done with SEO and It's a really interesting question and it's a question that's still as yet unanswered But like that's an important aspect of distribution SEO has been vital to you know, you know, web to getting traffic to websites right and Being able to show up in high-patreon on the Google on the Google algorithm for example and We don't we have no idea what the current what the equivalent of that page rank is going to be right? I have certain theories about what that might be and I'm encouraging Companies that I'm working with to think about SEO very differently than they've historically thought about it But again who thought who would have thought that we would be in a position now where something that we've taken for granted for the last 25 years is going to be greatly devalued Yeah, I mean look I a simple example is like go to chat you can see and ask what game you should play right now and just see what's there Why cute and like that game whatever is at the top of the charge or top five there They are absolutely getting traffic and and you know what game should my like 12-year-old son play or you know What like all of that is going to be what has historically been dominated on the Google side of you know filling a blog post and whatever else like There's a whole new world that that people are gonna navigate. I think the other the other side of this is like In my mind it just makes like that love ends of the world that much more valuable Absolutely, I was gonna say the UA the UA enablers are gonna be super valuable again because again if there's This ability to get people particularly if if we do see what what I'm hoping we see which is a lot more boutique e-commerce experiences in games right so and we'll get to it in the next section when we talk about curation But I think one of the antidotes to the slot problem is boutiques, right? It's like okay. Yeah, you don't like going into a department store and seeing 7,000 t-shirts Instead you can go to somebody who's selected like 10 beautiful colors and styles for you, right and I think I and and you'd maybe even be willing to pay a premium as you often are in retail to buy from a boutique because you're paying essentially partly for that curation and I think we're gonna see that really have an effect on distribution because in an atomized world of distribution Which may actually happen where there's many many more potential avenues to get games to market being able to Like control that surface like Apple oven does of getting of sort of you know getting people from the add to the product is Incredibly valuable Yeah, it's you know, I sort of hinted it to it at the beginning of this episode, but I almost think it's like You can imagine you know if that if a game braze 20 million dollars and it might only take five million to do it They might have to spend the remaining budget just on UA and marketing to break through in the noise in this current moment So let's turn to the fourth category and that's curated taste and I would include in that orchestration, right because It's a little bit abstract in the games business, but in the broader software world orchestration is becoming really important as a means of enabling your products to Talk to agents directly as opposed to having human intermediation and there's a thesis that orchestration quality is going to be the equivalent of curated taste for agents So that they're gonna they're gonna look for the least friction in or in the ability to implement those For sure into into into their their orchestrations as opposed to It's sort of the human equivalent of curated taste would be just kind of a fun and interesting Thought experiment, but you know, this is the editorial function, right? direction judgment creativity workflow expertise long you know hard one expertise That puts the right tools on the right job at the right time and I think this is in the games context really really important because this is really the part that
I think that people in games shouldn't be afraid of, right? Because this creative design, hero asset, creation, feel, voice, art direction, editorial taste, even at the platform level, all of these things are gonna be more important in an AI-enabled world, because they're the things that AI can't do, or can't do well, or they do in a way that's very obviously not human. And people will say they're getting better at it, the fakes are getting better, the deep fakes, the voice mimicry, I've certainly seen people, unfortunately, there's a lot of context out there of my voice on the internet, and people have done some fun parodies, and they're quite good, but they're not me, right? And they're obviously not me. And I think that human component is gonna be persistent. - Yes, I think there's, you know, on some level, this has, you know, historically been more of the IGN reviews, or metacredator, whatever type you would use, but I think there's gonna be a lot more of this, like editorial driven, like, especially on any side, I don't know, my Twitter feed is still filled with, like, this is a really cool new indie game that's popping up, where I'm starting this thing, and I think it all comes down to taste, whatever that means, and taste might evolve in this new world, but what the game's creative law is, be truly creative, and so I think largely pretty immune to this. - Yeah, I agree. - Especially the Indies, I think, born in anyone. - I mean, this is probably a unpopular take amongst the AI maximalists, but I would say that the entertainment broadly, like not, you know, packaged kind of, you know, TMZ type entertainment, or, you know, formulaic soap operas, or maybe even games in spaces like shooters, or match three, or 4x that are, you know, almost programmatic at this point, but a lot of other forms of entertainment kind of have a natural immunity to AI, right? Because they completely agree. - Like, what the kind of pleasure that people are seeking in them is very, very different, and it's maybe not accessible, at least there may not be accessible, like, immediately, and I think maybe quite defensible. I couldn't agree more. - I think the converse, however, is also true, which is if you're making mediocre, non-innovative, by the paint by numbers, like content within extraordinarily well-known and well-trot in genres, you may be in trouble. - Yeah, well, I mean, look, and we obviously just did a whole episode on Turkey and casual puzzles, and I think that is a world that really is around efficiency gains and like hyperoptipization, and look, for better or worse, AI is amazing at that. And AI is going to level that entire genre and industry up and competition's gonna be crazy, but I don't know if that's a place where tastes in the traditional sense that you and I are talking about will shine through, and I think that's actually a place where it's much more calculus of fun in all aspects. - Yeah, I mean, look, when we articulated the thesis of this episode, we talked about the fact that this was gonna produce a hollowing out of the mid-market very likely, and the mid-market is filled with this kind of content. And so if anything, that is going to accelerate this wipe out of the mid-market, right? - Yeah, look, the dreams of the world on the Royal Match and Match 3 side will actually be fine, but it's everyone else. The candy crushes will be fine. - Yeah, because they have context, yes. - Because they have, because they have, because they've aggregated users, hopefully. - Right, yes. - But the value's not necessarily gonna be in that hyper optimization any longer, because that's gonna be increasingly thin margins. - Yes, yes. - Yeah, and maybe said differently, is the floor of what a good game is, or the expectations of a game might also rise. And so the middle might get even more blurry, because it's just like everyone has these personalizations, everyone has these optimizations. And so to stand out is that much harder? - Yeah, I think it's akin to what we saw early on with the coding harnesses, where I think this articulation was really correct, which is that the LLMs basically are a little better than an average programmer, right? And the, but the idea is that that means that they're better than 50% of programmers who are already out there. And so it is a kind of like, a sort of floor raising technology in that way, right? It sort of raises everybody up to average. And if everybody gets raised up to average, like average is no longer good enough, yes, 100%. So I think this sort of curation and taste thing, I think also has a very interesting sort of subcategory, which is that when everyone can generate, when everyone can create, the scarce resource is knowing what is worth making and maybe what is worth promoting, right? In the case of some of these stores. And I think one of the things that I'm really looking forward to seeing is whether or not like the Apple App Store in particular and Steam become more highly curated, because they have taken the position that they're really not gonna be super curated, right? It's like you go into a Barnes and Noble in the past when they existed. And there would be a shelf that would be like staff picks, right? And there'd be like somebody write a little blurb underneath it, you know, it's like why this particular Tony Morrison novel or William Gibson novel or whatever was their pick for science fiction. And they were, it was wonderful, it was like really cool. You could, you got a little insight into the person and you got a little insight into the book or whatever. And it's like that doesn't exist really in games outside of social media. And I think it's incumbent upon the platforms to start reintroducing things like that, right? Like just a feature where they could have celebrity or famous players or whatever have their lists, right? - Yes. - Yes. - I mean, look, you know, you obviously remember the times of like one in App Store feature from my OS or Apple- - Matt. - With big deal. - Yeah. - Yeah. - Today like, it doesn't matter. And maybe it was a couple of weeks ago, you and I tried to go find the top 100 games and like that was buried. That used to be the true curation. Like that took maybe 30 seconds, 45 seconds of clicking around the App Store to find it. And so weirdly, they are maybe like extremely behind or have taken an extremely hands off approach on curation. But I am with you in a time where it's just gonna get flooded more and more, like it's never been more important. - I agree. - And again, I'm hoping that we see an explosion of boutiques, where people come in and create very highly curated e-commerce experiences for certain kinds of game verticals or genres or art styles or even just people's individual taste. And I think enabling those stores within a larger platform might be a really interesting strategy for its team, right? - I almost think as you're saying this, my mind goes towards our friend Nathan Garriott, who was from Anna Perna that then started fictions. The role of a publisher maybe becomes increasingly important in that we know that any game Nathan and his team are gonna co-sign and help put out actually matters and is important in the same way we look at a day 24 film in this way. And so weirdly, I do think publishers might have a rise back in this curation moment. - Absolutely, in fact, when I took over the third party business at Activision back in '95, '96, we used to say that we had a house style, right? There was like a certain kind of game that we wanted to put, we wanted our games to have a kind of consistency, even though they were being sourced from a variety of third parties and we didn't really have control over the development, we were picking things that were sort of an expression of taste. And I think that was interesting because people could look and say like, okay, Activision third party is making kind of dark, gory, hyper violent games or whatever, whatever our house style was at the time, right? And I think that was, again, sort of that publishers in premature, really, really important. - Yeah, maybe Humble Bundle comes back. Maybe you go full circle and you have something like that come back on the booted game side. - So the last of the five is liability and corporate insurance, right? And I think this has certain overlaps with trust, as you'll see, I think they're quite different. But the general version of this is sort of regulated industries, compliance, liability bearing surfaces, right? So in the game space would be age verification, COPA compliance, gambling and loot box rules, the EU AI Act, IP chain, a title, performer rights frameworks, like that we're gonna see out of the saga after agreements, platform certifications, right? Like these ideas that there is some entity that is providing a liability guarantee in this, right? Some kind of corporate or insurance company, whatever it might be. And I think those things are really important and those are gonna be even more important when the sort of usual cluster of kind of identities and corporate persona are no longer really implanted.
in an AI future. And so I think we're gonna see age verification regimes, we're gonna see Titan all across the industry. Last night, Roblox reported their earnings for their Q1 earnings and they talked about how age verification had made an impact as we had predicted in our Roblox episode and they got hammered as we predicted in our Roblox episode and at least at the market opened this morning, we're trading down about 20%. So I think that, look, the age verification is a really important aspect of this sort of liability and insurance regime. And I think in the future when we have the sort of DMCA for AI, we're gonna have compliance, right? But necessarily and there's gonna be opportunities for people to build competence, whether that's internal competence or whether that's outsourced competence from third parties like compliance outsourcers, identity verification platforms and even building and payment companies as you suggested earlier, I think Stripe will play a role in this, right? And I would also point to the, I would tell the sort of exolas and the other payment processing companies in the world to be, they should go to school on what Stripe is doing. Like Stripe is crushing it in terms of how they're preparing the company to exist in this AI paradigm shift. Yeah, I mean, they continue to operate at a different level, just true, excellent side of them. I think there's a piece of this, which maybe Roblox is the one example that we can point to of these regulatory things and these insurance things that all of this, like they create headwinds, they're not easy to do. Like these are not an easy thing to implement in your company. And they will be paying, I guess, there's no, there's no like simple way. Like there's a reason why it's hard to do these things is they're almost acts of violence on your company and the way that you've structured because you're trying to put up safeguards, you're trying to look out for your users. But like long term, not even just in the AI sense, they become, like just traditional modes, they become, they become a thing. Oh my God, yeah. I look, I, without giving away too much, it's like in a certain company that, a well-known company that I work with on, on, on, on the board, they're also going through a period of age certification, which is obviously going to be wrenching and disruptive on a certain level in terms of, you know, excluding certain individuals from the sites and, you know, making it more, adding friction to the onboarding, et cetera, et cetera. But once that data is in and once you know that you have age verified users or non-age verified users for that matter, that context becomes its own source of value, right? That becomes a really, really important asset that could be outsourced and federated and sold to others. And so going through that pain and suffering is going to actually come, you'll come out the other end of that with something very, very valuable. I could not agree more. All right, we've gone long and we were intending to finish this episode by talking about the new AI production stack, which I was going to just, you know, mention some applications that people should look at, but I think this almost deserves its own episode at some point in the future. So I'm going to just throw a few of them out there for people to look at if they haven't looked at them. And then I think we wrap this up and we move on. 'Cause I think this would, we could do a whole other hour just going through not just the actual artistic production stack, right, the sort of coding and design and art, but also customer acquisition, community management, finance, monetization, governance, you know, compliance. There are AI companies operating in all of these spaces. And I have recently with another company I'm working with developed essentially a, like what you would do if you were starting a studio from scratch and you were intending to use the most AI you could possibly use. And I've put together essentially my own sort of idea of what that constellation of services, of tools, of companies, of all of those things would look like. And I guess on a certain level, that probably has some competitive value. So maybe disclosing it on this podcast is entirely smart. But man, the tooling has exploded in the last 12 months and like again, if you did a drive by a year ago and you were like, oh yeah, mid-Journey, that's never gonna be that useful to me in making a game. Go look at Meshie. Go look at what's happening with Blender. Like Blender is essentially turning itself into an AI programmable system. Like it's crazy. You know, runway in the linear media space, Adobe Firefly, 11 labs for voice. And that doesn't even begin to touch on some of the sort of business enabling things that have been developed that are incredible. So we'll come back. We'll do another episode on this. Hopefully the thing that I'm working on will have launched by then so I can disclose some of this stuff from a little more fully. But I think we've done enough for one day. - Yeah, I mean, look, I think the, again, the disclaimer on all of the even that stuff is just, it's moving so fast. So even if we did do a snapshot of, here's the hundred tools we would recommend, it changes so fast. Like Meshie literally rode a primer that I read that is amazing and super in-depth, but like 40% of it might have already changed in what is the best practices. And so that's just again, the disclaimer on even this side of it. But there is, look, for someone who is curious and actually wants to immerse themselves into this world, there is infinite resources out there. And look, I'm also happy to be a resource. And that's like, I think I try my best to spotlight these things on social media and others, but yeah, there is infinite ways to go and learn and try out these tools right now. - And I guess from the advice that I would give, what I've learned over the last six months or so, in particular in the last three months or so, is that the way to approach this is from a layer of abstraction above the tools, right? Is at the layer of abstraction where workflows live essentially. And to really understand those workflows because the tools underneath them may need to be substituted as certain frontier models excel at certain things. And certain of them, they're gonna start differentiating, they're gonna start specializing, we already see it happening. You know, Google's tools, which we've not really talked that much about, Gemini and Nanobanana and things like that are getting way better. And I know certain people prefer them for certain kinds of workflows and for certain kinds of tasks. And so I think like aligning yourself with a frontier model and saying, "I'm a clawed person and I'm just gonna do everything in clawed as stupid," right? It's like, you have to build workflows that have the flexibility to substitute these new tools because the tools world is so dynamic that it's really impossible right now to predict what's gonna be a leading edge indicator a year from now, right? And so you really don't wanna make massive investments in the kinds of workflow, internal workflow processes that are gonna be rigid and won't necessarily be flexible enough to accommodate the fact that what's happening under the surface right now is just insanely dynamic. Like at a level I've never seen before in the 40 years that I've been working in software. - Oh, from that. And we are definitely an exciting times. And yeah, thank you so much for putting this up so together. - You too. And we'll be back next week. Thank you, everyone. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
AI represents a genuine paradigm shift in software and media creation, comparable to major scientific revolutions like the Copernican model or the discovery of oxygen.
The rate of AI change is extremely fast, with tools improving weekly; everything discussed is "the worst it will ever be."
GitHub commits are up 1,400% year-over year, indicating massive professional adoption of AI-generated code, not just amateur use.
Most game developers are shunning AI while the rest of the software industry embraces it, creating a competitive risk, especially from non-Western markets without moral objections to AI.
The hosts reject both AI drive-by critics (who dismiss it after brief, failed attempts) and AI maximalists (who think games can be fully generated from a single prompt).
AI will "hollow out the middle" of game development costs, making prototyping cheaper and faster, but the cost of engineering a hit game may remain high due to marketing and distribution expenses.
Five "durable layers" of the games business will remain valuable
AI will disrupt creative jobs, flood channels with "slop," and replace junior engineers, but the deeper question is who controls the layers above the model.
A 17-year-old could already prototype a playable first-person shooter in a weekend using current AI tools like UEFN, Meshie, 11 Labs, and Cursor.
1
The hosts aim to provide a timeless perspective on what will endure and become more valuable in the AI era.
Summary:
In this episode of the Gamecraft podcast, hosts Mitch Lasky and Blake Robbins explore the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on the video game industry, arguing that AI represents a genuine paradigm shift akin to the Copernican revolution. They emphasize the rapid pace of change, noting that GitHub commits have surged 1,400% year-over-year, driven largely by professional enterprise use, and that AI tools evolve so quickly that any primer becomes outdated within weeks. The hosts critique two opposing viewpoints: AI drive-by critics who dismiss AI after brief, unsuccessful attempts, and AI maximalists who believe games can be fully generated from a single prompt.
They argue that while AI dramatically lowers the cost and speed of prototyping—enabling a 17-year-old to build a playable shooter in a weekend—the cost of engineering a hit game may remain high due to marketing and distribution expenses. Their central thesis is that AI will "hollow out the middle" of game development costs, making top-tier developers, publishers, and platforms more valuable while eroding opportunities for middle-tier games. They identify five "durable layers" of the games business that AI cannot easily reach, favoring incumbents with existing users, IP, and data.
The hosts warn that the surface debate about job losses and slop distracts from the deeper question of who will control the layers above the model. Ultimately, they urge the industry to embrace AI as a competitive necessity, especially given the rapid adoption in non-Western markets, while acknowledging that the technology requires careful orchestration to produce professional results.
FAQs
The hosts argue that AI is a real paradigm shift in software and media, not just a distraction, and that the game industry's backlash against it is misguided. They believe AI will profoundly change game production and business.
They point to data like Github commits up 1,400% year-over-year, showing massive professional adoption of AI in software. They warn that most game developers are shunning AI while the rest of the software industry embraces it, which could harm competitiveness.
They define it as a complete change in how we approach problem-solving, similar to the Copernican revolution or the discovery of oxygen. AI requires a fundamental rethinking of how software and games are built.
The thesis is that AI will hollow out the middle of the game development cost stack, making prototyping cheaper but not necessarily reducing the cost of creating a hit. This will benefit top-tier developers and platforms while hurting middle-tier games.
The hosts identify five durable layers that will remain valuable, such as user IP, data at scale, and control over distribution. These areas favor incumbents with existing scale over startups.
They strongly disagree, citing real-world evidence like a 1,400% increase in Github commits and professional usage. They argue that dismissing AI after a brief trial is a mistake, as the technology is already transforming software development.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.