NATO 3.0 and the Recapitalization of Defense with Adrian Reilly

The reality is, as a soldier, this thing is probably the first time in my 30 plus years where there's a genuine growth projectory and that's in that's in sort of UK nationally that's in sort of Europe collectively and NATO as a whole NATO is stronger because of the great and I think the decision NATO has made means that for the first time defence is a great business and and that's that's a fundamental change. Hey everybody welcome to the future of Goughcom. This is a weekly podcast to bring together experts from across the industry and look at what's happening today and how it's going to impact the future of our industry. I'm Jake Fraser, I'm the owner and CEO of Precision Town Solutions, you know leading one of the industry's top executive search firms, I get to talk to influencers every day. See sweet executives, board members, growth leaders, top government officials, military flag officers and on this podcast what we're doing is we're bringing in these experts from AI, from space, from medical, from logistics, from engineering and we're sitting down and talking about what's happening in their specific area of the industry and how it will impact the future. So pour a cup of coffee and let's get started. Hey everybody welcome back for another episode of the future of Goughcom where we bring in the brightest minds around our industry and talk about where things are heading. Today we are very lucky to have with us major general Adrian Riley, he's not retired yet so we're still going to call him General Riley who is joining us today. Adrian welcome to the podcast. Jake good morning and thank you for having me really appreciate it. I'm always at Adrian I met at a reception that we hosted on the sidelines of DSCI in the late summer early autumn last year and we hit it off and he's got a fascinating career story and he's got one of the coolest jobs right now where Adrian is the director of the UKane capabilities for the UK MOD is that right Adrian? Yeah that's right and it's completely different to anything I've done beforehand but it sort of brings together a little bit of sort of financing sort of policy but importantly sort of equipment sort of support where we can do in terms of industry and partners to be able to support Ukraine and whichever ways we can do so it's been a clear mission real purpose but it's been huge learning as well it's been a great way to come to an end of it. So for our audience has been watching this space I think most of you have Adrian's been working on the Ukraine challenge for the last three years at a very high strategic level essentially as the lead for the UK MOD and so we're excited to get this perspective on that and he also has a fantastic career leading Scotsman, Infantryman, Armor, I don't know if you're ever a cavalryman? No never a government, always an infantryman but armored infantry on the way throughs. Okay that was a great privilege. Killed and armored infantry don't go together so they were sort of separate parts of life. Very cool. Well good let's get to know Adrian a little bit. Adrian talk a little bit about your growing up. I think you had a bit of an international experience growing up so talk about being a young man. Yeah so my family were originally in East Africa. My mother dropped her parents had been there from the end of the Second World War so we were apparently in Uganda, Tanzania and also Ethiopia for a bit. So a sort of young life in East Africa before coming back to the UK for school as many many expatriate families did and and then my family sort of re-sepled back here in the UK in the sort of the late 80s where we were in Scotland and that was that was really because my mother's from a Scottish family despite having lived overseas and and so it was sort of kind of coming home. It was always part of the idea of coming home and that was that was really where I ended up the sort of local regiment, family regiment in this sort of British way of having sort of a a long history that goes with it. So it was it was a brilliance of adventure as a child but then ended up sort of back home in the UK and then also growing up in East Africa shape you like in your early years. How did shape you for the rest of your career? Yeah I think it's interesting so I think there's adventure to it. I think anyway where there's there's a challenge to living and there were challenges living at that state. East Africa wasn't the most staying places. I think there's sort of sense of big outdoors with just sort of adventure that went with it so I think I can always remember adventure sort of challenge. The sort of fun of just being around people. It's kind of ethos of being in the military. It's good people, good challenges and having the opportunities made most of it. So I think I remember it really fondly. I suspect from a founding point of me it was quite a challenging place to bring up young children and I probably didn't see that part of it but from a child's point of view it was romantic. It was it was it was interesting. I think it gets in your blood in your genes. Like as a kid we traveled my dad was stationed in Europe. We traveled all over Europe and I think I could imagine just having a boring linear life. I wouldn't have started making life choices right. I think you're right. There's also that sense of what I would see is never really sort of having a place where I would say is hope. There was always that sense of next adventure next place and I think that helps with military service because exactly as you say you end up moving around doing lots of things and it does it gets in your it gets in your bloodstream for it. Rob being fixed in a place where you know everybody you know everything and and that's that's where you call home and that's where you want to be. You pass that on to your kids too now right. That sense of adventure. Yeah we'll see. So my children are now sort of young adults. One who's looking at military services as an option but we've never really got evolved in that but you know his choice and really excited from if he follows that part. Another who's moved into the world of international relations which is what she's doing her undergraduate degree in a money and actually it's great so some of the conversations we have as she realized that what I do is quite useful to her course. Being brilliant. Yeah so where that ends up don't know we'll see. Dad actually knows something right. It was a surprise. Yeah it was a surprise but it's been good. And military services in the family right you're a dual a dual service married couple is that right. We are and so for the next little while before I'm fully retired we remain the UK's senior serving army family so the two of us together and that's that's caused challenges through time so we were commanding offices together at the same time at the unit level but we were separated by hundreds of miles and commuting using sort of cheap airlines weekends but so that was the challenge that the benefits always been that there was somebody you could turn to. So when people talk about loneliness command that sort of challenge of having to do everything yourself. Whereas that's someone that you could you know genuinely have a conversation that you could say how do you feel about this and so challenges and strengths and I'm deeply proud that my wife is now a senior officer with a real potential and it's brilliant because it's a role model to young women but it's also a role model to the families which is important. She's the second woman to reach the rank of three stars right. Yes yes yeah yeah absolutely so so I would joke at home that that makes me the aid to the driver that I but but in we am at you. I'd probably do less of the home stuff than on vanness it's not an equal part. So how do you draw the line on shop talk I mean you come home you both have all this in your head. I know so for the most part we've and most of our portfolios have never really overlapsed yes in leadership roles you sort of kind of test things that are on your mind but for the most part we've worked in different parts of the business so I kind of ended up in in sort of headquarters and sort of strategy on plans and commitments like jobs and she has become a real specialist in terms of sort of the delivery of capabilities so has specialized in our later career around about sort of procurement capability development and delivery so so in many cases there weren't that many things that we overlapped on so that made life easy and actually when you get home there's many more important things than dealing with what happened in the morning. Yeah good friends the lectures she was a retired as a one star he was a colonel and man they were on the road all the time three boys but they all turned out fine so well good that's that's that's great talk about your military career like how did you decide to go in the military what was the what trepid trigger to do that? I don't think I really remember time where I didn't want to be in the military and and whether that's you know because we were a generation that was we only want to remove from from those that sort of fought in the second level and then all of those sort of conflicts through this sort of 50s and 60s so to whether whether that hadn't influenced or not I don't know and I kind of always wanted to do and part of it was it was a challenge part of it was it should be difficult and I kind of kind of like the idea of if it's tough have a girded so I went straight from school I on left school 18 went straight to Sandhurst, which was not uncommon in the early 90s, although these days we look for people who've got a little bit more experience quite often as undergraduate degrees and just probably a little bit more mature. So I did a apprenticeship in the military really, which was a brilliant way to grow up overseas in a place where compared to today there was no sort of easy flights home, there was no sort of internet connection, it was you were genuinely deployed with your friends and colleagues and it was brilliant. So so yeah straight from school I've done nothing but sort of leave school join the military. So the fact that I'm coming to the end of it is one of those sort of moments I'm going to have to think about actually getting a job at some point, this is the first time ever. What now? Absolutely. Exactly, yeah. What was your first deployment? So I started in Berlin, so my unit was in Berlin, so I was out there in 1990, the end of 1992, and at that stage the Russians were still there, so you had the quarters, the Americans were there, the French UK and Russians, and so you go for breakfast in the French quarter, we get great questions, you go across the American quarter for the PX, everyone by Leatherbins, and then you could still see the Russians around, they left during our time, and that was just a huge piece of history, but Berlin was in a sort of party state, the water come down, the unification of Europe, the end of the Cold War, there was a real positivity around it, but with a legacy of sort of all of the combat for it. How did that shape you just starting out there for your career? So I think what it did is it puts you in contact, I did the last of the big NATO exercises, where we excised the withdrawal from Berlin, although I slightly wonder how much the Berlin force would have been able to withdraw at a hypothetical. So we did a sort of NATO exercise huge withdrawal across sort of swathes, a private land back to the River Vesa, where the second nine defence was established, that was over sort of six weeks, and it was with very little notice, so there was no big exercise these days, you go in years worth of notice, super-perpetent, that was done on an active edge, button was pressed, you got to your vehicles, you started driving, you had no idea when, so she got an idea of scale, you also got a sort of idea of readiness, and I think you could just see this sort of big European theatre out of set, that's looking backwards as a 19 year old sort of soon leader, I was learning, how do you deal with people, how do you deal with this sort of technical stuff, there was lots of things I got wrong, there was lots that was just learning about your trade, so there's a balance between the personal and the sort of the big system, probably looking back, I think that big system. Yeah, I remember reporting to my first platoon, I was 21, 22 years old, and I was probably the third youngest guy in the unit, you know, trying to be in charge, but not be the boss, so yeah, yeah, yeah, and some brilliant senior sort of interested leaders who were just patient, who were brilliant sort of just helping you develop as an individual, giving you some boundaries, and sort of pushing you to go beyond it, and it was never about physical, could you run fast enough, of course, did you know the tools, yeah, but putting into action, that sort of development pathway was incredible. So talk about your career path, other deployments or high points in your career that helped form to who you are today. So I sort of, I say, Scottish infantry regiment, what we did was in those early days, we danced in northern Ireland, internal security tasks, and that was on short deployments in sort of high risk places, and also some longer deployments over sort of a couple of years. Was that still during the trouble? Was that, was that still reactive, huh? Yeah, so my first point was into South Amar and the sort of before the first of the big cease fires, and then even after the sort of the first of the cease fires and they got into negotiations, there were a number of events that can't happen, so I think that was an incredible testing ground for young leaders, but your troops very quickly got to a conclusion of whether they trusted you and whether they would give you the authority to lead, and it was an amazing testing ground for young military people in the British Army, but of course, actually, you know, the resolution was important, and there were times where we, certainly my first point, we had 30,000 troops, really small territory of six provinces, it was, it was a big commitment, so a lot of time in Northern Ireland, which then led into sort of move through the rest, and you get more and sort of more or the responsibilities you go, and then into the sort of the period of time which was through the Balkans, and actually the Balkans, I got to the late end of sort of the once, so the stage of which NATO I thought was all pretty established, it was, it wasn't sort of the early chaotic days, and then, naturally that leads to Iraq and a bit of time cycling through in Basar and beyond, and actually, then laterally I had a sort of brief stint dealing with some, some Libya type activity, but then I've ended up in headquarters jobs, in policy jobs, and that sort of senior end where you think you could still be an infantryman, your knees don't, and you're kind of, you're kind of stuck in sort of helping to make the right decisions, so that's where I've been most recently. So talk about interfacing with industry, with government contractors, when did you first come in contact with government contractors and talk about your experience there? So I think, as I look at it, you know, there were definitely government contracts around Northern Ireland, but I was, I was too junior, too tactical, really, to sort of understand, and there was a lot around about sort of physical base protection, and there was a lot of sort of electronic surveillance time business, and so there was quite a lot going on, and it gives just, it was, it was about me, and I didn't understand it. I think the first time I properly saw sort of government contracting was in Iraq, you know, after the early, after the invasion, the sort of the big organisations like KBR coming, sending up huge bases, dealing with sort of all of the sustainment and supply sort of, of a force, and in that sense, I think, you know, I was still really a sort of tactical commander, and I kind of appreciated that this was all being delivered, but didn't think about the sort of consequence of, you know, the balance of force, balance of risk, actually, how do you, how do you enable a mission? So that was my sort of first real introduction to it, and then laterally, it's, you know, much of my conversations have been around about this sense of the balance between industry, commerce, government contracting, and the mission. How do you create an end-to-end sort of capability that includes the best of all of those pieces so that people have focused on mission? That's been, that's been my last part of the career. Do you remember the point in your career where you saw the contractors no longer as them, but as us where they became truly part of your capabilities? Yeah, and I think, I think that is, for me, most recently, it was, it was probably getting into sort of strategy and plans jobs at the sort of the MOD strategic level, where we're actually done, the enablement was, you know, it was a, it was a lever, it was a tool, and it wasn't, it wasn't something that was transactional, it was absolutely sort of, you could see, you know, mission focus from the organisations who were dealing with, they brought capabilities that just on core military business, and they were good at it. So, so I think as we started getting into, you know, sort of, planning above the operational level in terms of how do we, how do we deal with problems, quite often, no, contractors have solutions, that the military is just not there. And you could see the rely, I mean, of course, I was in the Balkans as a soldier, and I saw all the, the brown root guys who knew BKBR, I mean, they were everywhere and they built all that infrastructure and brought us our hot food, hot showers, and later I got to work there. As a brown and router going out and liaising with the task force, and I began to realise they were very reliant on stability to fuel and feed and move their equipment so they could execute their mission. And I felt like, well, that's when we became we instead of them, they, we became a we kind of mission there in the Balkans. I think that was kind of the breeding ground that, that mindset was then permeated as we went into Iraq and Afghanistan and Kuwait and all these other places. And now it's so integrated, right? It's it's part of the forest. It is, and even I know back to you, probably being a division, of course, I'm as a grade three staffer, so I'm really junior, but I was on the the G3 desk, actually our biggest concern is always about engine spares and tech. And all of that was being moved around by contractors, you know, you just, you couldn't have happened otherwise with tank transports, which were actually a collaboration between a sort of commercial organization. with hot time reserve, military drivers. The integration of that was huge. So even down to, can I get a replacement engine to my tank? And we work, they were facts that we were tracking in great detail. Everyone thinks the G3 shop is all about big plans and being clever about how you do stuff. Actually, it's about the physics of being able to do it. The decision was the generals. So you, and kind of the evening of your military career, you've been focused on the challenge in Ukraine. And probably not just from a UK perspective, but from a holistic perspective, right? So talk a little bit about your role there. What you've been focused on. Yeah, so you're right. It's definitely not the UK. It is sort of an international sort of group of people who have seen justice and sort of, you know, Ukraine's right to defend itself and to make its own choice and raise it. So it's sort of partnership. It's internationally more than 15 nations are actively and routinely working together to support Ukraine with what it needs when it needs it in order to be able to defend against the sort of the invasion and to make its own choice. So one very small part of that. But actually, really privileged position, the visual background in terms of sort of Miltech, no capability procurement background, but finding myself in a place where, because of, you know, just where I was and the relationships I had, that I could, I could sort of bring something to it. So what I've been doing is, working for a little while, working between sort of the political there sort of decisions are made sort of national capital decisions. It's sort of fundraising and working with fundraisers to be able to sort of get the resources built. And then matching politics and money to capability. And it's all well and good saying, you know, it's like the sort of second world war problem. You can build the best thing, but unless you can deliver it in Ukraine for the user, it's no good whatsoever. So what does Ukraine need? How do we get it? How do we get the time of relevance? And I think this has challenged an awful lot of thinking around about sort of supply, stocks, innovation, consumables. It's been the whole sense of, how do you, how do you in a war of industrial capacity, gear up your industry to be able to be on the winning side? You know, you go back to how many sort of, how many meters of shipping, tons of shipping, the US managed to produce between 1942 and 1945, that's wall-winning type stuff. And so how do we, how do we, when we're not at war, would the industrial capability response to be able to give a partner that we are politically committed to supporting defend its nation, actually, to be able to defend its people and to be able to get to the outcome that they deserve? How do you feel about, because it's bigger than Ukraine, this is about, you know, the 5% to 3.5% of the NATO pledge for spending, I think Ukraine's kind of a specific use case for that, right? That's creating some urgency. How do you feel like the European plus UK, you're still Europe in my book? How do you feel like industry is actually positioned to support that? From a production, but also, I'm also thinking from a services side, which is where I've grown up on the server, you know, the deploy, sustain, maintain, how is that shaping what industry should be doing right now? So I think Ukraine's shown us some re-valuable insights. So I think it's challenged that sort of neatness of precision strike, the application of sort of, you know, a lethal force in a way that allows you to be able to be really quick and sort of the outcome is assured. And I think it's taken us back to the sense of there is a real challenge in terms of enduring conflict of sustaining and delivering all of that industrial support. So that's been a massive lesson. And I think, of course, what we need to also do is appreciate just how much Ukraine has done to secure NATO's eastern fanking, facing an enemy that we never want to, and actually we should celebrate their courage and sacrifice all the way through that. They've been extraordinary. So I think, you know, NATO's recapitization, this is, I mean, you know, in terms of its political, it's not for me to come to. But the reality is, there's a soldier there. This is probably the first time in my 30 plus years where there's a genuine growth projectory. And that's in that's in sort of UK nationally, in sort of Europe collectively, and NATO as a whole, NATO is stronger because of Ukraine. And I think the decisions NATO has made means that, you know, for the first time, defence is a growth business. And that's that's a fundamental change. And I think that there's some really fascinating stuff coming out of this. So I think, you know, for investors, not necessarily government money, but I think sort of private and sort of other capital. Actually, defence is a worthwhile market. I think from an industrial point of view, where we've been running at, it's sort of, you know, a, a defined product level. We're now talking about systems that are always on innovating, who are trying to be at the leading edge of technological advantage for battlefield advantage. And I think when you bring those things together, NATO strength, you know, increasing cash. And the fact that industry is part of battle-winning, it's not just a warehouse. It is, it's absolutely gotta be them. And I think my biggest observation of this is that it's no longer about sort of products and product stocks, but it's about a system that can take battlefield intelligence that can integrate across a range of capabilities. And it's all about gaining initiative and advantages. Any multi-personal note, it's about, it's that whole sense of how do you get the advantage in the bounce bounce? So, this is, this is a time like I haven't known. And it's a really exciting. The recapitalization of the defence industrial base. I haven't heard it put that way. Where do you think, where do you think we're missing investment in that space? Where do you, where do you see the gaps right now? So, it's something that depends on, and I think this is, it comes down to, there are a number of really well-established sort of defence companies who, who actually genuinely make some incredible capabilities. And some of those capabilities is huge demand in Ukraine. And, and the order books for some of these companies are telling the story of just how valuable they are. I, I think, I think the difference now is that the growth of small media mental prizes and, and a lot of them, no longer small on medium, because if they've got capability that works integrates and has battlefield of advantage, they, they are attracting cash. And, and therefore, you know, that is transformative. It's no longer just about primes, there's a genuine competition. I, I think it's, it comes down now to this sort of sense of what, what it's price modelling the platform going forward. So, so rather than what's the return on a product range, and therefore periton sort of, you know, profit margin. I think now we're moving to a world which is probably about sort of contracting for service. It's about contracting a relationship that says that we're in this with you, weren't I think, no, the presence of science and tech right up at the front line in Ukraine. We've seen Ukrainian troops who are, who are dealing in code. So, the troops who are, you're sort of recoding capabilities who are absolutely aware of the electromagnetic spectrum and how they exploited both for defence and offence. And, and therefore, this sort of tech is all the way forwards. It's no longer you unbox something and use it and you're part of the system. So, so I, I think the big change is going to come in terms of its contracting for service. Of consumables, no sort of system that works. And I think it's about sort of the integration of tech all the way forward so that it's no longer. You don't take something out of a box. You're part of a system. And that's, that's going to change how money flows and this sort of work. I think there's a, you pointed out your traditional primes, their backlog is so big now that there's not much capacity there. There needs to be a new layer that comes in and it can't be, it should be attracting private equity and venture capital funding, right? Because it should be seen as an attractive profitable sector to get in. And I guess my question is, what are the European MODs doing to kind of stimulate this idea, bringing in non-government money but real investor money into the market? So I think, so I think first of all, there is a, there's an impression that says prime is bad, you know, sort of young innovative is sort of small companies really good. And I don't think that's true. I think some of the primes have been amazing in how they've responded. And the demand for some of the capabilities they've provide is through the roof just shows they're doing the right thing. So I think there's a range of good primes, there's sort of primes that are more challenged. There's good innovators, but there's also a lot of people who are trying to get into a market and secure a position without necessarily having having something that's that useful to begin. So it's on. I don't think there's a divide between good and bad in terms of industry. They're all separate. I think the whole sort of how do you draw investment? I think governments can create the opportunity. But I think this is the capital markets to make their own choices around. Whereas, defence has been for a long time, not necessarily. You can make a better return through farming. There are lots of places you could get better return on investment. I think now we see not only a moral choice around about national resilience, security, which is influencing. But I think also the growth market just helps shareholders and businesses make different decisions. And the challenge at the moment is if you're a multi-billion dollar organisation, actually, to be able to get a 5% 10% return on it, you've got to get some big money for that money. That money is coming around, I think, with NATO changing its posture and its funding. It hasn't run yet, so they haven't necessarily moved. I think if you are 100 million dollar business, getting a 5% return on that, you can do in the Ukrainian exists. So I think what Ukraine has shown is that money will flow to where capitals are. I don't think enough money has flown yet. Centralised, the prime is to be at the leading edge of that. That competition is good. And I think the money changes through NATO. We'll see industry respond to it. And the capacity is there. So where should let's go back to Ukraine because we went macro talking about European defence. But let's go back into Ukraine. Where do you see need right now for companies to be investing to support this next phase? Hopefully we get to some sort of armistice or ceasefire or maybe a peace deal. Where would you be investing if you're in our audience out here? You're a defence services company. You're an equipment provider. Where would you be investing to support this next phase of what's going on in Ukraine? So hopefully we do get to a new phase. And shortly on, it's sort of this wall has got to end. It is going to end and actually genuinely hope that it ends with justice for Ukraine. So when that phase comes, I think the challenges are sort of, there are lots of challenges. I think the whole of the world is going to be sort of given opportunities through Ukraine needs to restructure, rebuild from an infrastructure level. It needs to reestablish it sort of trade mechanisms, sort of port infrastructure, but it can be able to actually be a wealthy and sort of sustainable nation. But it's also going to have to rebuild its defence. And it also probably needs to move from its current defensive structure to one which is much more threatening in a deterrent sense. So it's deterrence by denial, deterrence by punishment of any future and Russia engagement. And I think that's been the case from start coming forward. So having realised that actually the previous peace agreements didn't hold because that wasn't it. So it's going to be a transition, huge amount of building, huge amount of sort of work from energy through health through sort of governance through sort of just, you know, we established Ukraine as a sovereign, offended, you know, safe nation, safe skies, safe seas, safe safe territory. So I don't tell you for any businesses out there, the sense of the markets there. And it's going to be too big for any single business, too big for any single nation. It's genuinely going to be challenging, it's going to be coordinating all of those things. And I think, you know, in that sense, from physical defence hardening through to the sort of generation of a depth of magazine with sort of long mid and close range strike and defence. And also the rebuilding of what Ukraine has, it's capabilities have been hit hard on. So in terms of just a basic engineering, if sort of rebuilding all the platforms that they're using that sits aside. So it's a massive challenge. And I think we already know that's many hundreds of billions of dollars worth of sort of work that needs to be done. And I have a confidence that the international community, you know, sort of, you know, responsible will be keen to meet that. And there is an opportunity not only for the good of Ukraine, but for business to actually get up to. I assume you've been working with SAGU, the Security Assistance Group Ukraine and in SACU on demand signals from Ukrainians, right? Because that's what's Ukrainians are given their demand signals to these, these organizations. Are they giving strong demand signals as we're being optimistic about having some sort of resolution? Have those demand signals changed from, you know, defensive/offensive requirements right now, tanks and things like that to air defense and UX, you know, UXO removal? And are they giving like once things happen, then we're going to move to a new set of requirements? And I think that's been, so that's been a real challenge in terms of, then there is a genuine question about if you project forwards too much, then you give people the opportunity to focus on it. It's okay, I'm going to deal with sort of, I'll explain to you, so I'm going to deal in sort of the regeneration of sort of damage combat vehicles. And actually before night, Ukraine's got a, we have fight tonight. And so there's this sense of, keep the focus on fight tonight, think about tomorrow. And so there's a, there is a really well-developed Ukrainian pattern, it's their plan designed by them. There's no point in telling what the answer is of what the future should, could look like, and how they transition at a sort of phase change towards it. So there's a good sense of what that is, but it's not the focus of the moment, and the demand set isn't there yet. What it does do is, is influence choices you make now. So the international community responded with a huge amount of sort of support from their own infantry, at the beginning of the war. But you know, if you take that down to a basic level, there were lots of different systems that weren't designed to operate together, necessarily, put onto the battlefield. And that created logistics and command challenges and even just operative challenges across the board. What understanding the future allows us to do is, we understand what future platforms, what future capabilities we do now is make fight tonight choices based on the knowledge of what is a future plan. So if you've got a particular tank that you don't see in the future, don't resource them. Don't focus on that as your priority. Focus on the things that will injure them. So the future isn't forming now, but everybody's focus remains on it's here, it's now, it's the urgency of the fight. So how do you see this? We had a really, we had a guest previously, a member of parliament, Adrian came in, I'm under, I'm sorry, I'm not gonna translate his last name, I messed it up. So he's an active member of parliament, and he was kind of a, he'd been the ambassador of the envoy to South Korea, fluent Korean. And he had this idea, he has this hypothesis that the war will end in a similar fashion as the Korean war. It's like a Korean model. So not major general Riley's opinion, but Adrian Riley, but how do you see this thing on whining? What do you see happening? And when do you see it happening? And when is a really difficult, so that's ultimately there's very few people that can really define the when, and it's gonna come, as I think most conflict does to a sort of point of, it's a point of which is either by exhaustion of people and resources, it's my, you know, some form of international pressure that comes to it. And within that, I think there's also a sense of the what, it's, I think, you know, this comes down to Ukraine has to be able to be comfortable that their sacrifices and that everything that it stood for to protect is protected off the back end of that. So I think ultimately how will come down to resource and time, it will come to a point of which no one side just can't endure anymore. Now Russia's, Russia's making a judgment that that'll be Ukraine first. From what I see of the Ukrainian people, their resilience, their fighting for their freedom, they are, you know, that is just the most remarkable, just fighting spirit. They are, they are, the unity, the focus is, is admirable. I don't mean Russians don't talk to them, but I wonder quite how much their sort of forces are driven by that same sort of motivation and that sense of purpose. I don't know, I can only, I can only assume. So I think Russia's calculating that Ukraine will fall over. And I don't see it at a personal level, I don't see it at an international level. And, and I think, you know, that's a misjudgment, but time will show. Ultimately, it's, it's unlikely in the near term that that Ukraine will recover the territories, all of the territories that it's lost. So it's likely that there's going to be some form of frozen line. And I doubt the international community will accept that. They sort of change forever. But I think we'll be in a place where actually if we secure Ukraine's national decision to be Western aligned, to be able to be a democracy that builds in its own vision without any interference or manipulation. And I think that's a win for Ukraine in the long term. And I think that's going to be hard for Ukraine people. They've suffered incredibly. That they probably will end up with some form of territorial line. But they will end up free and able to make their own choices. Do you see like we had in Bosnia, a zone of separation, and peacekeeping force coming in? I think all of that depends on how does the conflict end, what are the conditions around? Because we can't sort of-- and this problem of predicting forwards is there's a lot of assumptions around. So yes, you could assume that there will be a hard line. There will be a area of separation that will be monitored by some form of technical or military force. And there'll need to be some form of arbitration organization that looks over sort of violations of what man looks like and holds that through a sort of international legal process. But that would feel like a good assumption. But we don't know. Because there's still quite a lot to play through before that happens. And that of course then sets conditions around what are the future security architectures of the plant? What are your priorities at the point of which peace comes? Same goes for any use of a coalition of the willing for like a stabilization that just depends, right? Yeah, and I think Kurdish and the willing, which is, again, it's sort of an international commitment to support Ukraine in the regeneration. So it's not a defense force, let's say. It's about supporting a partnering regeneration of their sovereign capability in order they can defend and deter. And I think that international commitment, you look to more than 50 sort of the world's most well-send nations coming together in unified support. And those nations supporting a future security architecture, which includes reinforcing and supporting the Ukraine. It seems to be a mission within the mission if they do that. There's got to be a mission to support any kind of stabilization force or peacekeeping force similar to the Balkans, right? You'll have deployed foreign troops. I've got to need life support and equipment and sustainment just like in the same time rebuilding and reestablishing the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and all of its capabilities. Yeah, and within that even just sort of establishing, you know, sort of Ukraine was rushed into this war. They didn't choose it. It wasn't, you know, so you clean this Russian into it. And despite the fact they've been fighting since 2014, that was over Crimea, that was reasonably contained. I think now you see the likelihood that it's a huge map from reinforcing foreign defenses to building secure ammunition stoppiles and access to them, looking at the sort of the infrastructure of roads, bridges, rail, as a means to supporting military and to it. So that's just an infrastructure level. And then you're going to have to look at sort of like all of the troops that come back from that frontline. How do they, in a future force, with what's their sort of barracks set up look like? How do they, what's the training facilities? So there's a massive amount. Then that's just a new Ukrainian front before you then enable a sort of partner force that sits alongside it. There's masses out there. And then the key thing is how do you sort of look at the integration of Ukrainian defense industry? I mean, they made five million homemade drones, FPV drones last year. They account for more than 8% of the sort of the casual teams on the front line. There's an exclusion line that sits across the sort of the forward edge of the battle, all controlled by drones. How do we take that sort of Ukrainian drone technology understanding the extraordinary innovation? How do we make that available to NATO markets? So there's a-- there's lots of stuff going into Ukraine, but there's going to come a point where there's a lot of stuff coming out of Ukraine. You've got to think about this as a sort of two-way process into the future. It's going to be-- It's true. Yeah. Going to be quite something. We'll add people to them. What's going to go in? But there'll be a lot coming out. There's a lot of technology and new owl in production capacity once things settle down. Yeah. Absolutely. It's a fluid problem set right now. And I'm sure there's a lot of course of action work going on within the European capitals, within the NATO headquarters. And I think-- I think kind of looking at it from an industry perspective, it's difficult because it's fragmented. The Germans want to do this. The British want to do this. The French want to do this. The Ukrainians want to do this. And there's national interest from a production capability perspective, even some distance now from American, some sovereignty discussions going on around systems now and probably around even services. So I think industry is-- look, it's easy in the US Department of Defense or Department of War is the-- that's the belly button to go to. And they have certain contracting mechanisms you go to to get work. I think the challenge with industry is, where's the funding going to come from and how do you get set up to support it? And I think there's just someone's certainty around that right now. Yeah, I think so. And I think-- so in Ukraine is reasonably simple. So everything is driven by Ukrainian priorities and their strategy. So it's Ukrainian strategy. And they're really clear and prioritized in terms of what it is they're asking for and how we get it. So I think in the sense of it is OK. I think it's when you extrapolate. It's that point of which, what's NATO learning from this? And I'm sort of-- I routinely hear the conversation that says, days of tanks are done because drones are now new precision, cheap precision, and that the system will always defeat the platform. I'm not sure that's true. And I think the question is, what lessons are we learning? So if you could take what Ukraine's learned and done with un-crede systems and you match that to some of the bigger maneuver forces and you think about how do those things come together, that could be genuine transformation. I don't think I agree with people who say we're going through a revolution. Uncrew is a revolution. I think it's about a system. And how do we bring together an air force that can coordinate and deliver effect with a ground force that can maneuver that now has the ability to be able to operate uncrewed, accrued, mix things that go together? And how does science and tech sit alongside giving battlefield of budget? I think their questions we haven't resolved. And so I think a lot of the early thinkers have said, no, we've got to buy drones. You could buy a warehouse of drones. But when you come to use them, they're probably not the drones we want. And it's not the drone. It's the system that is what's your layering of ISR, sort of electromagnetic inspection management, your application of a suite of capabilities to be able to have target effect. And then there's a conversation that says what's the cost going? Is it worth a million dollar shot, or is it actually no sort of sending $1,500 sort of drone to the particular direction? Their conversations we need to have. And I think NATO is moving into that space. So I think NATO has been really energized by what it sees and what it understands and how that complements its suite of capabilities. And therefore, what's the industrial demand? As we've got more money into NATO from across the member states, it's not just about spending the money. It's about spending the money of the right phones. And this is now, I think, a defense that's gone from a long time window shopping and taking time to make decisions. To one that is actually engaging industry in a whole system approach. Yeah, this is-- And this is-- And this is fundamental change. So I think the signals have been confused. But I don't think that means we're not heading in the right direction. And I think that there's a genuine energy behind this. I think from what I see of NATO organizations through national conversations, there's a lot of thinking going into this with some broad sense of their minds. So I can ask you to do the impossible. But it'll be interesting to hear your thought process. So I always ask the guests, let's go three years in the future. We're in February, 2029. There's been an election in the US who knows what's happened within the different NATO member countries. And yet, just make a-- go out on a limb, make a prediction. What do we look like in 2029? What does Ukraine look like? What does NATO look like? What does UK-MOD posture look like? So I start from Ukraine, and then I'll sort of come back from this. So I think Ukraine, the war, has stopped in its current days. And there is a line of separation and some form of peace. And that's not-- that's not sort of-- Apple apples and sort of that best that's just this is this is kind of it's a unstable piece In a way, but it is it's holding and it is there I think Ukraine is probably in its most vulnerable stage So I think and Ukraine in ten years time And if it follows it sort of regeneration sort of campaign and how it builds a sort of sovereign deterrence ten years They look good, but they're in a transitional phase and that's their that's their sort of highest risk period where Russian forces still provide a A threat and they set of kick-pulles as they can't defend against entirely And so this is this is a period of time of you know people will assume when peace comes and that brilliant we can all step back I think actually when peace comes it's the point of which we've got to search forwards because It's it's the point where Ukraine has to rebuild has to restructure has to restock And those things have got to happen together. It's going to cost more and it's going to take more energy So they it's going to be a point of vulnerability The peace will bring vulnerabilities So I think that's where Ukraine is I think at the same time that you know you come back to sort of I start sort of UK-wise There's not a political statement, but I I genuinely think there will be more money in defense I think there will be sort of a sort of push for Increasing readiness and that's readiness. It's not that's not in terms of just stocks of things It's in that sort of a way of fighting and readiness to do it which gives us you know sort of a drive to be to learn everything we can do from Ukraine to be able to work with some of Our industries to bring some of that best knowledge into our inventory And I think it probably includes you know a sort of hard push to be alongside for Organizational support for regenerative support And and building closer and closer ties for so I think nationally What's Ukraine's in a you know vulnerable point? I think it's a point of which You know more money is flowing. I think there's a real sense on readiness and sort of delivery and I can see active partnership From nothing the UK but but sort of allies in support of Ukraine But I think most importantly in this this is a point of which so no NATO is on its path to It's it's gone from it's made the political decisions to To increase capital It is absolutely looking at it's it's sort of post-RAM profile and how it builds around it I think this is the point at which you've got NATO sort of no in in its next version Really beginning to be on the front edge and active in terms of you know active deterrence And a building of sort of coherent defensive capabilities that that challenge any would be addressed off of back end of it So I'm sort of I see from that point of vulnerability on the eastern flank through actually the sort of this mechanism Which is driving national and multi-national sort of convergence cooperation to be able to build to it The thing we got to do is to be able to match some of the industrial side of one at the same time So it's all well and good to say we're going to put money into things But we've gone from the world of ten year cycles for the generation of exquisite kickboards I think we're now in the business of how do we get to the minimum viable requirement on kickboard? How do we bring this to Inventory early how do we test it prove it and how do we build a system to innovate in and so I see I see a much more Driven defense industry That is much more inclusive. So it's not a them and us, you know, so you earn money. We tell you what we want It's a genuine integrated sort of capability set and and I think the people who are going to be the front edge of that Are the ones that that sort of move from a traditional My traditional model where we banked peace for a degree To one that recognizes that national is in its national deterrence comes from From being absolutely integrated on the front edge leading breeding edge sort of capability development And so so I think is a really interesting time geographically And we're going to have to balance this sort of this this risk that Ukraine has And you push that forward you say I'm going to ask you about 10 years But in 10 years time we get this right, you know, we're we're in a brilliant place It's in that transitional period where we hold most of the risk Interesting It's kind of like a NATO 3.0. You have the cold war NATO. You have the post cold war NATO Now you have the the third version of NATO, which is an energized Capitalized as you say NATO Interesting So we always like to nail down our guest to one word one word to describe your gut feeling about The future of our industry as it relates to Ukraine and NATO and and This posture there's NATO 3.0 What's the one word you would use to describe your feeling Adrian So I've got probably I'm going to go two ways of this some my one word in terms of sort of house assessment It's going to be integration Integration is going to be the heart of everything that we do Whether that's sort of integration of services when that's integration of knowledge whether that's integration of capability sets I just see integration is is the thing that's come out of this recent period of conflict But I also see I think we've gone from a dormant defense to one that is genuinely active. You know defense is no longer It's no longer a sort of vote loser We we are now part of this whole sort of protecting societies that we we've benefited from and and we know we've protected But we haven't always been popular. We we're going to a place where you know active active defense You're we're going to be part of the conversation um and and I think that's that's transitional We we're going from a world where I've been proud of my service and lots of people who know what I did but There are not been sort of hearts of the public conversation Defense is part of public conversation right so I think we we work on up the defense defense industry defense service And and that integration of those things together will be really critical to public Fascinating We could talk for hours Adrian. It's um it's your perspective is it's fresh. It's good. It's relevant. It's informed and Really really and we're probably are going to bring you back on Once you've gone to the other side and you'll have a little bit of a different perspective So we definitely want to Tag up here in the future and see how things have evolved say you're spending really appreciate it Yeah, so you know door audience out there Technically Adrian's still in but he'll be out soon. He's um he's in the shoot to be one of our precision experts If you want to engage with Adrian feel free to reach out. We can help Set up a a good match a good fit for you Certainly if you're looking at Ukraine right now you're looking at where to invest how to position for the next phase I think Adrian is probably one of the brightest minds that you could bring into your boardroom And help you come up with a good strategic plan. So feel free to reach out and um, you know This is a this is a dynamic situation We're in Krakow this week when this comes out talking with an entire community of the defense European defense with a C industry And we look forward to engaging on this and also you know offering bright minds like Adrian To our community. So Adrian thanks for coming in. It's been a real pleasure to have you Yeah, great to see you and thank you really appreciate it And to our our audience out there our community you know tune in next week. We got a great podcast lined up for you Hope you enjoyed this discussion Please share this with your friends share it with your your teams Help us spread the word. We're bringing in some of the the deepest expertise That helps shape where this industry is going on the future of Govcon. So we'll see you next week All right, so thanks for joining me on another episode of the future of Govcon. I hope you enjoyed today's conversation and some of the bold predictions If you did take a second share it on your social media subscribe on YouTube If you have any ideas for future guests or topics you'd like to have covered Hit me up on LinkedIn. I'm always there And you can always learn more about precision talent solutions at pts.careers Look forward to seeing you next week on our next episode