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MS NOW's We The People 2026 Special Primary Coverage, 11pmET hour

44m 10s

MS NOW's We The People 2026 Special Primary Coverage, 11pmET hour

California's 2024 primary is a high-stakes, deeply strategic race marked by record voter turnout, complex ballot structures, and significant financial disparities. With over 89% of voters casting ballots early, the state's system allows for top-two advancement regardless of party, meaning two Democrats could win the governor's race or a mix of parties. However, results remain uncertain due to late voting, postmarking rules, and a slow count—only 52% of votes were tallied by sunrise. Early data shows tight races, with Javier Basera and Steve Hilton leading in the governor’s race, and Karen Bass narrowly ahead of Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayor race. Voter confusion persists, driven by the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell and strategic voting—such as supporting Tom Steyer to ensure two Democratic finalists—despite his massive $200 million self-funded campaign. This financial imbalance raises concerns about political integrity and voter influence. In addition, the lack of a Republican candidate for governor may boost Democratic turnout, offering a path to reclaim five House seats. However, the broader political context—such as the Supreme Court’s approval of Alabama’s redistricting and CBS News’ firing of Scott Pelley—adds national tension to the state’s outcomes. While results are not final, the night underscores a shift toward voter agency, strategic decision-making, and deepening concerns about the role of billionaire donors in shaping elections. California’s voting patterns and political dynamics are critical not just for state outcomes, but for national political trends.

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>> Less than five minutes until polls close in the great state of California. Let's bring an Ali Velschi at the board to look at how we expect the counting to go and what people should understand about the way these elections are being conducted in California tonight. Ali. >> So the great thing about California is they make it easy to vote. It's very easy to vote. A voter participation is high. People can get ballots. Everybody gets mailed one. You don't need any excuses. And generally people vote in advance. This race has been thrown into some people. So you see people like the ones that Jacob were talking to who haven't really thought this through. You really have to study. It's hard to vote in California. It's easy to vote, but it's hard to make decisions. A few things that are different from places at other states. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. So those people in the line are Republicans and Democrats. Everybody appears on the same ballot, whatever party you're on. So you're voting for the top two people to advance. That means it could be two Republicans or two Democrats or two independents. The top two vote getters advance to the general election. So in some cases, you will see two Democrats advancing in the same district could be two Democrats advancing in the race for governor, which means that you'll end up with one for sure at the end, or you may get a combination of two Republican and a Democrat. In some instances in California, you'll also get two Democrats. 89% of California's population in the 2024 primary was cast cast before election day. We don't have current data on this, but we believe the number this time to be lower because Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race. It cast a lot of voters into some confusion about who their next choice was going to be. And as a result, the number of people who would have cast their ballot early held onto it. Again, you saw Jacob talking to them in the line. So this is important to remember. And then this is the most important thing, Rachel. I'm going to get you a gallon of orange juice to get through tonight. Because in the 2024 primary, only 52% of voters work out of total votes were counted by the time the sun rose in the east. And because a lot of the voters are voting late in this particular case, you can also postmark your ballot by today is a bit of a special process. You have to get a particular type of stamp to do it. But if you get your vote stamp by today, it's the course of eight or nine days before that may be counted. So in fact, we'll have some good sense of trend in the next few hours. There may be a lot of votes that are not determined before the sun rises. Okay. It's good. It's good to keep in mind. I mean, I should welcome our friend Stephanie Rologen, Saki, who I'm throwing this here at the table. I feel like as a maid of California, and I'm allowed to say this, which is California is a different country. In the sense that it factors in the national politics in huge and important ways and all sorts of important national figures have come out of California. But when you're looking at the state from outside the state's borders, they do things differently. They're an, it's effectively an inward directed state in terms of what their issues are and what types of campaigns their candidates rent because they can afford to be because they're so gigantic. But it means that on nights like this, when we're looking at big national implications out of California, you actually do kind of have to teach the whole country what California's like in order to understand what these, what these votes are going to mean. Tonight, I do think we should prepare people, Jen, for the fact that we may not get results in a lot of these races. We may not even know who the top two are going to the general election for a matter of weeks in a number of these, in a number of these camps. That's exactly right. I was just talking to a D. Stewart-Demisey, who ran Governor Newsom's campaign back in 2018, and he basically said, "Everybody brace yourself. I hate to tell you this, everybody watching because you'll learn some things tonight, but you may not know all of the things." And you probably won't know. And the other thing he warned a little bit about is what he called, we talked a little bit, the Red Barrage, which is votes come in a bit, and they come in at different paces. And sometimes there's a huge influx of democratic votes later in the process. We'll see how it goes tonight. But because the primary was in such a crazy state of disarray a little bit because of Eric Swahwell's allegations, it means a lot of people voted late and it means things could be late. We'll see if that ends up being the case, but he said, kind of pays yourself. But the reason to pay attention is not just the governor's race, but because there are five races, Democrats hope to flip in the state. We may not know who those Democrats are, but that's more than Democrats need to win back the House. So stay tuned not just tonight, but the coming days and weeks, I guess is what everybody is saying here. We're about 12 seconds out from the poll closing time in California. We don't expect, I don't think, to know anything right at poll closing because of the way they count. But as of right now, polls are closed in California. Here's a look at the California gubernatorial primary. As we mentioned, there are literally more than 60 names on the ballot, but these three men are considered to be the top three contenders, Democrat Javier Basera, Democrat Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton, who has President Donald Trump's endorsement. Lots of other high profile people in this race, though. Chad Bianco is the controversial Riverside County Sheriff, Katie Porter, Firebrand former Democratic Congresswoman Mayhan, who is the Democratic mayor of San Jose, Antonio Villarragosa, former mayor of Los Angeles, lots and lots of candidates in this race. Again, the top two will proceed to the runoff in November. The California's largest city is Los Angeles, the second largest city in the country. Karen Bas is the incumbent mayor. This is technically a nonpartisan race. Karen Bas was a longtime former Democratic congresswoman from California before becoming LA's mayor. She's facing a challenge from the right, from the reality TV guy Spencer Pratt and from the left, from Nithya Rahman, from the city council. Again, we don't have, we don't have results to tell you about at this point. Polls have just closed, but those are two races to control very big parts of this country. One in eight Americans is a California, and it's the fourth largest economy in the world. The governor of California is a huge potential counterpoint to a president of the United States in terms of political and economic power. Los Angeles is one of the great international capitals. The second largest city in this country after only New York, and it has politics that will curl your hair any day of the week, but particularly right now, stuff. Jen's talking about the red barrage. My focus. Well, wait, before I get to that, Spencer Pratt, I just need to take a poll. Yeah, I definitely knew who Spencer Pratt was. I'm guessing, gender. No chance. You did no chance. You did no chance. Any of you ever wanted to know that, Jen, the Hill wouldn't choose me. I knew there was a chance, but I was positive. You three. Never. No, I'm proud of it. Oh, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me. Chris is the generation of Hills. He might know. I don't think he wants. Okay, you're half right. But I knew him because I knew that he existed as a cultural figure. Okay, fine. Wait, I did not want. Okay. Why is the Hills a regular TV show or was it like a reality show contest? It was a reality show. Not it was a. Well, it's the Kardashians. It's not a contest. But it's like Jersey Shore. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Jersey Shore is super famous. Anything you can relate back to Jersey Shore, I will understand it. Jim Tann Launtry, Paulie, me, who would I guess? I think I literally think one of them was going to run for great governor of the Jersey actually. Okay. Well, I'm going to be this table snookky for now and tell you that the green barrage I'm thinking about is I don't know that the average voter understands just how much money is going into all of these campaigns and we'll be going forward, right? Thomas Massey's primary was just the most expensive we've seen. We're seeing the same thing when it comes to Ken Paxon. And so many of these giant donors aren't even setting foot in the states where they're writing these massive checks and look no further than Donald Trump who has trained our mega wealthy. And the mega wealthy at the end of Joe Biden's term have now become extraordinarily wealthier than that. And so for them to write big checks right now, it's like water. When you think about the amount of money in AI, in crypto, even in finance right now, they're writing such giant checks because they know from a Donald Trump presidency that you can't just influence politics, you can control it. Think about what happened just a couple of weeks ago. Donald Trump was about to sign an executive order about AI because we saw American voters from state to state to state say this isn't working for me. And he was starting to get pressure to listen to the American voter. And hours before he signed that executive order, he got calls from AI CEOs and suddenly he said, forget it. So I think what's so interesting about these elections and even these midterms, it's almost going to be the billionaire donor class versus the American voter because the checks are right now so big and they're only getting bigger. Will the American voter realize, hey, the people that are starting to control my state and local politics might not even live in my state or locality? What am I going to do about it? Can I just throw something on the table a little bit? That's a little bit of water on that. And because I agree, I agree fundamentally, that is very true. But there is something to be said about the voter and it plays out in two fronts. On the money front, what you just described, oh, there's money coming into my state. Trust me, I have been the victim of a lot of money coming into a campaign against me and I've been the beneficiary as well. But when I was the beneficiary running for the United States Senate in 2006 against been cardin', I raised more money than been cardin' in a democratic state and lost. So because you have the cash, doesn't dictate what the vote is going to be. Because that billionaire only has one vote, and he's got a lot of money, he's got a spread. So the question that becomes on the candidates, the state parties, the organizations, the structure, the infrastructure, in the case of Democrats, how do they really plan and prepare and take the dollars they are spending to put it on the ground? The second part is on redistricting. A lot of folks right now, sitting here, "Oh my God, they just drew the lines in Texas." What happened to Texas? They drew those five lines, and guess what? Two to three of those seats are competitive this November. So this is the point. You may draw the lines, baby, all day long, but that will not dictate how the vote is inside those lines. No, I know you're not, but I'm saying that biggest check is so much bigger than we know. That it used to be. Totally. But the reason I kind of wanted to wedge in there is because the thinking a lot of voters have is that because they've spent a lot of money, they're going to win, my vote doesn't matter. And what I'm trying to say is, no, you're still in the game, even though a lot of cash will be coming in for the opponent, you're still in the game because there's probably a lot more of you ready to vote against him than there are people who are putting money into this campaign. I think that the biggest issue here is the anti-incumbency aspect. I mean, Spencer Pratt basically ran for a long time saying, "My house burned down. It's bad. Vote for me." And a lot of people in LA were like, yeah, we just went through that and we don't like what we're getting now. It doesn't mean it's entirely rational, it doesn't mean it's policy-driven, it's about, we don't like the thing representing us and we're seeing this across the country in so many parts. Yeah. And I think, obviously, when you listen to Josh Cherrick give his speech in Iowa, the change versus more than the more of the same is going to be every single measure we have of people satisfaction and the status quo, interestingly, increasingly across ideological lines and across geographical lines, it's like people are like big thumbs down. Even sometimes when the data doesn't even match it, like if you look at the consumer confidence index and you try to match it to model on the macroeconomic data, it doesn't work or they become totally unhinge, the mood is profoundly relentlessly sour. That mood of sourness really, really, really hurt Democrats in 2024 when they were running as an incumbent party. It's a very different situation now. And I think you're right that the positioning of who's an incumbent who's not, I mean, to go back to that Iowa race, Ernst for tiring is, was an interesting call. Yeah. It's, so you're going to have someone who's not the incumbent, but the person they're going to nominate tonight, Ashley Henson, is an incumbent Republican member of Congress, right? So Turek is going to-- He's tied to Trump. Who's tied to Trump? Who's going to try to paint her with that with every brush? And I think the shoes on the other foot a little bit in the L.A. Mayoral race because the question of who's the pilot of the status quo changes depending on what's their circumstance you're in. Well, let's go back to Los Angeles. Let's go back to Jacob Soberoff in Los Angeles where there's still apparently a very long line to vote. We say that every state, every election night, it's always the case, but it looks like the line there is pretty impressive, Jacob. Yeah, it is very healthy, Rachel, and it's even healthier now that they passed out. Can you show us what you got up there? They came by and the pizza to the polls showed up, so there's pizza for everybody that wants to have it out of the polls tonight. I'm going to come and catch up with you guys in one second, but I just didn't want to weigh in on the Spencer Pratt conversation. Rachel Spencer Pratt lost his home in the Palisades fire, viewers of our network, no, I lost the house. I grew up in--my parents didn't live there anymore, but it burned down in the Palisades as well. My brother lost the house that he was living in, so many of us new people that went through this. It was the defining issue of Spencer Pratt's campaign, so the reason he decided to run for the mayor of the city of Los Angeles, but this populism or this form of populism that he has tried to sell to voters of Los Angeles, and many people have bought into it. I guess we'll see when we get those first results in just a couple of minutes here in Los Angeles County, it's polite by the facts that underscore who Spencer Pratt really is. He said he was living in a trailer. I think Jen mentioned that on his empty lot in the Palisades, actually, he was living at the hotel Bel Air, according to recording, or at his parents' house in a very fancy part of the California coast west of Los Angeles. Spencer Pratt talks about unhoused people in the affordability crisis in Los Angeles, but the way he speaks about unhoused people here in L.A. is just like Donald Trump talks about immigrants in the United States of America, that he wants to round them up and put them into a "cantus-like" facility in partnership with the federal government. He's got a lot of boastful, loud opinions about what he wants to do with the city of Los Angeles, and about the problems that he sees here. I think we all see those problems, but his solutions sound a lot more like the guy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue than both Karen Bass, the Democratic mayor here, won at the Iran and the progressive challenger, who has looked on many of these issues for a long time, and I think we'll ultimately see tonight what happens today. Jacob, what's your assessment of how Karen Bass has fielded those complaints and that political pairing from Pratt and others, particularly about the fires, but also just about her mayoral legacy? I think that Karen Bass came in as a well-known congresswoman from the Los Angeles area, serving decades in the United States Congress, and was a community organizer before that, and had a lot of good will here. The fires, this is my hometown and my community, Pacific Palisades, where I grew up all to Dina on the other side of town, is not in Los Angeles City, it's in Los Angeles County, so voters in all to Dina are not voting for the mayor of Los Angeles tonight while they are voting for the governor. They were unhappy about the fires, obviously. This was the costiest wildfire then in the history of the United States of America, though you wouldn't know it if it was up to the Trump administration because they disbanded the billion dollar disaster registry at NOAA, which keeps track of many of those things. Karen Bass and Gavin Newsom have both gone to fight in Washington, D.C. to get supplemental money in the recovery of the fires. Gavin Newsom told me he couldn't get a meeting with as much as an intern when he went to FEMA to try to meet with the Trump administration. Karen Bass went and sat in the Oval Office and couldn't get $8 billion out of this administration. They have certainly tried, understand why the constituency in the Palisades is upset about what's going on there, but there are many other issues here that people in Los Angeles are voting on, which is why Karen Bass has not done yet. Jacob, thanks very much. We'll be checking back in with you over the course of the night. Poles are now closed in California and we are starting to get some of the first vote in. Let's go to Ali Valshi at the big board to talk to us about what we are seeing thus far and from where? All right, we've got 6% of the vote in California right now. Mostly I'll tell you, this is where it's coming from right now. One of the bigger areas we're getting vote in from right now, in fact, well over 100,000 votes, 150, 140,000 votes, 52% of the vote in San Bernardino County and Steve Hilton is in the lead here. San Jose, we've got 47% of the vote in Javier Bacera is in the lead there. Steve Hilton is in second place, followed by Tom Steyer. In fact, if you just pull out statewide, it's just 6% of the vote. And again, you can see there are major centers from which we have zero vote, Los Angeles, nothing from around there, nothing from around San Francisco. So we're waiting for all of that. But at the moment, Steve Hilton is in the lead with 28% of the vote to 24 and a half percent for Javier Bacera and 17% for Tom Steyer. So there is vote. It is real. We do not have it from a lot of major centers in the state yet. And again, I remind you, there are people who are not just in line right now to vote. But you could postmark your ballot by today and that ballot won't even be received for a week or so. It is a very popular thing to do in California to vote by mail. So very early results, it's way too early to read anything into it. But there are significant numbers. I mean, if you look at the total numbers right now, the lead is almost 17,000 on about a hundred and almost 200,000 votes, more than 200, almost 300,000 votes cast right now. Again, there will be millions of votes that are counted in California. So we have a way to go, but we have started getting numbers in. >> Ali, let's go to Iowa. Can I ask you to walk us through a couple of things? First of all, in the governor's race, obviously we've got an uncontested democratic race for the governorship. On the Republican side, very much a contested primary. Can you show us what we've got so far on the Republican primary for governor? And then I'd also like you to talk to us a little bit more about Turek versus Walls and how we got that Senate race on the Democratic side. >> All right, so we know that Rob Sand is the nominee, ran unopposed as the Democratic nominee. He's the only Democrat who holds statewide office in Iowa and Democrats feel like they've got some good chance with him. Again, for the gubernatorial primacy, primary, 91% of the vote is in. And the expectation largely was that Randy Feinstra would be in the lead. He's down by less than a percent, only 1400 votes separating Zach Lawn from Randy Feinstra. And we've been wondering all night whether in some of the places that are left where we don't have a vote, and there are only four counties where we don't have a vote yet, whether Feinstra would pick up more of this. But this one's going to be tricky to watch. I will say there's an obscure rule as we discussed in Iowa in that if there are more than two candidates, one has to get more than 35% to win. For the moment, it looks like Zach Lawn and Randy Feinstra had a vote. have surpassed that because if they don't, this would have to be decided by a party conference on June 13th. But we're going to watch this very closely. It's very rare that you get to 92% of the vote in and you can't call a race. In the Senate primary, Josh Turek, who we heard speak at 1030 Eastern, has won that. 86% of the vote is in 62%, almost 63% for Josh Turek versus 37% for Zach Walls. Both very strong candidate. As you can see, there are four counties that don't have vote in. They're a little bit more rural, so the numbers won't be very big there. There is one county, well, there are three counties that Zach Walls did very well in. One of them is Johnson County. That's where he's from. He got 58% of the vote to 41 for Josh Turek and neighboring counties, Louisa and Cedar County, where he's done well. But this is a real thing because there's an open governor seat and an open Senate seat. That hasn't happened in Iowa since the 1960s. One of the things that this has done is that is put Iowa. We have now moved Iowa. Iowa was down here, likely Republican, that's almost always Republican. We moved Iowa into lean Republican. This just happened an hour ago. So now you've got, these are the seats that Democrats are looking at. You've got toss ups, North Carolina. Again, Roy Cooper doing well there. You talked to John Ossoff. We talked to John Ossoff earlier this evening. Main Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa is now in the lean Republican category. It's a matter of degrees, but it's important that Iowa feels a little more competitive for Democrats tonight than it did even just a few hours ago. A very consequential win by Josh Turek in that Iowa Senate race. Josh Turek is about to get very famous as Democrats, in particular, all over the country learning about him as their nominee in Iowa. Yes. We have the aforementioned, the winner of the Iowa Democratic primary for Senate, Josh Turek, our only national interview tonight. The only one he'll be giving. First representative, it's great to have you on and congratulations on your victories tonight. Yeah, thank you. And thank you for having me. A lot of excitement enthusiasm happening here in Iowa. Well, campaigns are a learning process, I think, for any candidate they're grueling, and you spent a lot of time talking to people, which is the great thing about them. What did you learn campaigning among Democrats statewide in Iowa for this seat? What did you learn that you didn't know when you started? Well, the thing that I heard by far the most was how many Iowans are hurt and just struggle in to keep food on the table, a roof of other head, and now with the conflict in Iran just to be able to keep gas in their tank. And the Iowans are looking for change and looking for hope. This is a state that has completely hit the bottom. We are dead last for economic growth, 48th for personal income growth, close 250 more health care clinics. And we've opened in the last 15 years leading the nation in cancer rates. Now we lead the nation in foreign foreclosures because of the tariffs. Iowa has hit the bottom and Iowans are ready for change and ready for change in this country as well. And I'm seeing hope in people's eyes for the very first time. You know, Rob Sand is already an elected statewide Democrat. He's running for governor. How do you think that the interplay between those two campaigns works? I know that there's a lot of excitement because Sand looks like he's got a real shot at the at the gubernatorial levels well. Yeah. As you had mentioned earlier, this is the first time since 1968 that we've got an open governor's race and an open Senate race together to open congressional races. I know that a lot of your viewers will look at Iowa as a red state and what I've been going around the state saying over and over and over as we're not a red state. We're a common since state that has masqueraded more red than what we were. We're 30 years. We elected Senator Tom Harkin, Obama twice, Trump three times. We have more Obama, Trump counties and any other state in the union. And you look at Trump's last midterm. And I think there's significantly more energy and desire for change now than even then. We won three of the four congressional races. This is a, this is a generational chance of no power of income and see a state that has hit the bottom and candidates like myself and Rob Sand with proven ability to be able to win over the independence in the moderate Republicans. We can win this thing for viewers that are just kind of getting to know you maybe even possibly this evening who did not see some of your ads, which were, by the way, great. For a multi-time paralympian, you met your wife playing basketball abroad. You are a true baller, which of course I love in respect. Tell us a little bit about yourself and about that career trajectory and how it took you back to Iowa to try to join the U.S. Senate. Sure. Born and raised in council, blessed Iowa, working class family, working class community. I was born with my disability. I was born with a condition called Spine Abifida, due to my father's exposure to Agent Orange and Vietnam, had 21 surgeries before I was even 12, so understand the adversity of what so many people are going through with economic and healthcare struggles. Did find wheelchair basketball. It really honestly saved my life, was able to play professional wheelchair basketball, and then the great highlight of my basketball career was able to represent the United States in four paralympic games and win back to back gold medals, or something I'm very proud of, and now trying to represent in a much more meaningful way, because I think it's a generational opportunity that we have here in Iowa to be able to win Senator Harken seat back. And honestly, I'm only here because of the work that Senator Harken did on the American Medicabilities Act. Is there the same less or more trash talking in wheelchair basketball? Would you say? I'll tell you this. I always thought that the hardest thing that I was going to do in my life was winning gold medals, but I will say this. I'm not as physically tired doing this, but this is without a doubt the hardest thing that I've done. It's a lot of long days, and it is arduous, but this is certainly the most meaningful work that I've ever done in my life. I think a life dedicated to public service in service to others trying to make your state and your community better is the best way to live. And this is a once in a generation opportunity here in Iowa to win this Senate seat, and if we can win here in Iowa, I think we can change this country. And that's really exciting. All right, Josh Turek. Thank you so much for making time tonight. I really appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks for the time. Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for United States Senate from the great state of Iowa, making a very good case to Democrats nationwide that this is a winable seat. Democrats in Iowa certainly have been very excited about that and about their shots at that governor, at their shot at that governor's race. And now we know who that candidate will be. It's going to be really interesting to watch there. We've still got a lot coming in tonight. I'm told just got a bit more vote coming in in California in terms of the governor's race. We've now got 17% of the vote. Again, what we're looking for here is two, the top two candidates who will proceed to the general election in November. Right now, with 17% of the vote in, that is Republican Fox News guy, Steve Hilton and Democratic former congressman, former chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, former health and human services secretary, former California attorney general, Javier Vassera. We'll be keeping close eyes on this as these numbers continue to roll in. Stay with us. We'll be right back. All right, we've got some results in. We're looking at a half dozen states across the country that are voting tonight. New Mexico governor and the Democratic primary former US interior secretary and Democratic councilman Deb Holland has prevailed in the Democratic primary for governor in New Mexico onto Montana looking at the guv, excuse me, on the Republican primary in New Mexico's governor race. Forgive me. Right now with 72% in, we've got Gregory Hol in the lead over Doug Turner. That, of course, will be an uphill battle. New Mexico is a reliably blue state these days. Montana, the Senate primary in Montana is complicated and interesting. But in the Democratic primary in Montana, Alani Bankhead right now, leading Riley Neil will keep a close eye on this one less than half the vote in here. Also an independent candidate in, in Montana, really scrambling expectations in terms of what might happen in this race. On the Republican side of the U.S. Senate primary in Montana, Kurt Almi has been projected the winner. He was basically handed this by Steve Danes, who was the outgoing incumbent Republican senator who waited until like a nanosecond before the filing deadline to announce that he was leaving. Oh, and by the way, I endorse Kurt and he's already declared. It was a bit of a three-card Monti to get that nomination to Almi, but it worked. In Montana's first congressional district in the Republican primary, Aaron Flint, the projected winner over Christy Jacobson, that first congressional district is competitive. Democrats like their odds, they like their shot at this. It's been a hot, hotly contested primary on the Democratic side for that first congressional district right now, a 55% of the vote in. We've got Ryan Bussey of the narrow lead over Sam Forsag, who's had a lot of national attention. He's a smoke jumper, and has had endorsements from Alexandria, Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and others. We'll keep watching those closely, really interesting cases there. On to the New Jersey, one of the many primaries that we're watching in New Jersey, the seventh congressional district is a particular national interest because this is one of the swing-iest districts in the whole country. certainly the Sunniest District in New Jersey, it's held by incumbent Republican Tom Kane. who ran unopposed on the Republican side tonight, but he also hasn't been seen in months. So it really matters who the Democrat is is gonna be taken on Tom Kane. We now know it'll be Navy helicopter pilot, Rebecca Bennett prevailing in that Democratic primary tonight in New Jersey's seventh district. Now, 31% of the vote is in California. This is where we're out right now with the California gubernatorial primary. There isn't a Democratic primary that's separate from a Republican primary. Everybody's all in and the top two go to a runoff election in November. So we're looking for top two finishers. Javier Basera, Steve Hilton, and Tom Steyer, sort of in contention right now. The only candidates right now in double digits with 31% of the vote in. Ali, what can you tell us about, oh, sorry. Excuse me. The Los Angeles mayor's race, 39% of the vote in the Los Angeles mayor's races is a nonpartisan election. Right now, the incumbent Karen Bass at 38 Spencer Pratt, the Trump endorsed reality TV guy at just under 28%. Again, just under 40% of the vote in the California mayor's race. Now, theoretically, if somebody gets 50% in the California mayor, the Los Angeles mayor's race, they'll win and it'll be over tonight. With this many people running and with this many strong candidates running, it's very unlikely that anybody, even the incumbent, Karen Bass will cross that 50% threshold, in which case it'll again be the top two finishers going to a runoff election in November. So Ali, in terms of where we're getting vote from and what our expectations are in terms of any mirages that we should be aware of now or how we're coming in. This becomes really important because actually, 39% of the vote, I mean, we're half an hour into poll closing. We got 39% of the vote on one hand. That's really good and really fast. On the other hand, this could slow down really, really quickly. Karen Bass is actually performing better than expected at 38% right now. But again, there's just no way of telling when this number is going to jump to 49, 59, 69, 79, 89%. So at the moment, Karen Bass is in a good position. This is Los Angeles. So we've got those numbers in which we've been waiting for. And in fact, a lot of the rest of the state's primary depends on those Los Angeles numbers which we've been waiting for statewide. We have 35% of the voting. So it's very similar. 39% in Los Angeles, 35% statewide. Same problem could jump fast, could jump real slow. And when I say slow, we could mean more than a week. But for the moment, Aviva Bacera, who was polling higher than anyone else, although it was very slim, is in the lead 26.4%. Steve Hilton is at 25.6. Tom Steyer at this point is underperforming in his numbers. Because they're polling numbers were actually very, very close. He's underperforming. In fact, he's only got two counties, roughly, that are coming in in his favor, 30% here where he's got 24% against Steve Hilton up in Northern California. And then in Southern California, in Santa Barbara County, he's got 21% against Steve Hilton coming in in the second place, so 25%. Steve Hilton's coming in either in first place or in second place in a lot of these areas. We're waiting for some of the more populated areas. We have nothing coming in from San Francisco yet, but right above it, Marin County, this is interesting because that's where Tom Steyer's from. And that's where Tom Steyer's donor base is sort of from in Marin County. And he's running second to Bacera there in San Mateo County. Bacera is in the lead with 26.8%. Steve Hilton's in the second place. So this is giving us a bit of a story that Bacera, who is, you know, he's got a lot to his name. He is one of these guys, as Attorney General, he sued the Trump administration in the first Trump administration. I think about 122 different times, he was a cabinet secretary in the Biden administration. He's coming across sort of the normal stable guy the Californians may want to put forward as their gubernatorial candidate. But the dream for a lot of California Democratic voters would be to have two Democrats in the, in the top spot, in which case one would definitely win in, in, in, in November. It may turn out, again, we're at 44%. So we've had a bit of a jump. 44% it may turn out that you've got Bacera and Steve Hilton. I've heard the argument that that may motivate people to come out and vote. Democrats to come out and vote rather than knowing that they're going to have a Democratic governor. I don't know that to be true. It's hard to tell. And again, I warn you, it's, it's 44% of the vote in a vote that could take a long time to, to figure out. I want to just quickly go back to the LA mayor race and see if we've got a jump in the vote there. Now we're still at 39% Karen Bass still at 38% of the 39%. That's a lead of 31,000 votes. So we'll stay on top of it. But probably a better situation for Karen Bass to be in then what the polling indicated. Interesting. All right. Well, it's a Donald standing by for us. In Los Angeles right now, we're going to take a quick break. Be back with him right after this. Stay with us. If you are still in line to vote in California and you were there before polls closed 37 minutes ago, please stay in line. polls are closed. But if you were in line, you can still vote right now with 37% of the vote in in the gubernatorial all party, all party primary. We've got Javier Basera and Steve Hilton very close to one another in the top two positions. Tom Steyer in the third position right now. But again, less than 40% of that vote in. Looking specifically at Los Angeles, the nation's second largest city where we've got a heart, a hot fight for this mayoral election incumbent mayor Karen Bass standing at 36 and a half percent of the vote. About six points ahead of the Trump endorsed reality TV guy Spencer Pratt. This is with 45% of the vote in. Our friend, Lawrence O'Donnell is in Los Angeles watching these results come in along with us. Lawrence, when you and I talked last night in our handover at 10 p.m. Eastern for when I was going from my show to your show, you said that you not only hadn't voted yet, but you still didn't know how you were going to vote. Did you figure it out? Did you vote? Was it hard to figure out what to do? How do you feel about it? It was harder than it has ever been and it took longer because the electorate here, especially on the Democratic side, was really shaken when Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race. Not because of support for Eric Swalwell, but because of the unpredictability of the race, who's going to drop out next and for what reason would some of the lower polling candidates drop out because they're in the single digits. And would there be some kind of coalescing in the polls that Democratic voters could look at and say, okay, here is strategically how we have to vote when what really matters is who comes in first and second. And there was a painfully long period in the polling where it looked at least theoretically possible that two Republicans could come in first and second tonight. That is now clearly impossible and has been impossible for the last couple of weeks. But it took quite a while for voters here on the Democratic side to settle down. And then they just had to stare at these candidates and make a slow and careful decision. That's why I mean, I voted today on Election Day for the first time in literally as long as I can remember. It was like a reunion at the polling place people hadn't seen each other in a long time. And friends of mine texted me tonight saying, I'm in line tonight, you know, because I didn't decide until today. And there's two tough decisions actually, Democrats had two tough decisions, including in the mayor's race. As you can see, two Democrats running in the in the mayor's race that I had someone standing in line tonight at 730 saying, you know, she hadn't decided which one of those Democrats to vote for in the mayor's race. That's what was slowing her down in casting her ballot. And so it has also turned California voters into strategic voters. There was a progressive group that rates the candidates that was suggesting that the vote be for Tom Steyer so that he would come in second because they were confident that Sarah would come in first. So they were advocating voting for Steyer not because they were choosing him or endorsing him, but saying strategically vote for him. Then you'll get two Democrats in November and nothing to worry about. So it's been just a mess of strategic confusion for California voters to last minute here. And with, you know, as we get to 30, 40, 50% of the vote in, it looks like we're going to have definitely some drama tonight in terms of figuring out who the top two is going to who the top two finishers are going to be in each of these races. But in the meantime, Lawrence, I understand you have a special guest. Yes, we do. We're going to bring in California's Democratic Congressman Rokana who is joining us tonight. Congressman Kana, you you made your decision on the governor's race a while ago. How did you decide? I liked Tom Steyer because he was for the billionaire tax because of his record on climate because he's for single, single pair healthcare. But let me just say it looks like Javier Bessera is likely to be one of the top two. I have a lot of respect for him. He served well in the Biden administration. He was an effective of attorney general. And. if he were to win, he'd be the first Latino governor. But I wouldn't count out stire. And the reason is that a lot of the late breaking votes anecdotally and through some of the exit polls are breaking for stire. And it would be fantastic if we end up with two Democrats. If there's no Republican on the ticket, that would really help us win back the five house seats that we need in California. But just to stay with the strategy of that for a second, if there's no Republican on the ticket, would that depress the Democratic vote statewide? Would that then reduce your chances of picking up those house seats that you want to pick up because Democratic voters don't feel they've got to, they, some won't feel they need to go to the polls in November. I don't think so, Lawrence. So the one thing Democrats in California are is energized. And they want to stand up to Donald Trump. They want to stand up to Donald Trump, who shafted us after the fires didn't give us money, who did the awful ice raids in Los Angeles. And they're going to come out. If the Republicans don't have a gubernatorial nominee, I actually think it would depress Republican turnout. But look, we are poised in my view to win at least four of those seats. The hardest seat is going to be the Valdeo seat. The last I checked Randy Villegas is up there. We'll see how that plays out. He's a very strong candidate. The California is going to deliver. And I give the governor, Governor Newsom speaker Pelosi, Zollafgren, a lot of credit for mobilizing us in Prop 50 and getting five seats, which we're hopefully going to deliver to get Hakeem Jeffries to be speaker. Carson, we've been having a discussion of money in these campaigns. No one has seen the kind of money in California that Tom Steyer, your candidate has spent LA times reporting this morning that his $200 million that he has spent to get this far is 20 times more, 20 times more than what the front runner, Havia Bacera has spent to get to this point. What does that tell you about money in politics in California? That's a terrible thing. And look, neither side is pure. I mean, Havia Bacera is getting a ton of money from donors and corporate donors, but Tom Steyer spending hundreds of millions of his own money. And this is why, in my view, we need to ban all super PAC money. We should ban individuals from spending more than the contribution limits. I mean, I don't take PAC money. I don't take super PAC money. And I don't use my own money in elections. And I really think the Americans are tired of super PAC money or self-funded candidates. And it's a real flaw in our political system. Carson Rokanna, thank you very much for joining us tonight. Thank you, lords. Rachel. Thank you, lords. That was excellent. I was still watching while you were talking. We're still watching for more numbers coming in, both from the Los Angeles mayoral election and from that gubernatorial race. We're starting to see some significant numbers in a number of house seats that we have been watching as well. I will also tell you, among all of these storylines that we're following, on the elections tonight, we're also following some breaking news, a dramatic decision from the United States Supreme Court tonight, okaying the Alabama's, the Alabama congressional map, which this United States Supreme Court had previously struck down as deliberately, racially discriminatory. Talked about that at the top of this special coverage tonight. We also talked about the dramatic firing at CBS News of veteran 60 minutes, journalist, correspondent Scott Pelley. We've got a little bit of a development in that story that we're going to tell you about right on the other side of this break. Stay with us.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. California has high voter participation due to easy access to mail-in ballots, with over 89% of voters casting ballots before election day in 2024.
  2. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, leading to possibilities of two Democrats, two Republicans, or mixed results.
  3. Late voting and postmarking processes mean significant vote counts are not finalized until days after polls close, with only 52% of votes counted by sunrise in the 2024 primary.
  4. In key races like the governorship and Los Angeles mayorship, early results show tight margins, with no candidate reaching 50%—ensuring a runoff in November.
  5. Strategic voting and donor influence, especially from billionaires like Tom Steyer, have created confusion and uncertainty among voters, who are now more cautious in their choices.
  6. The 2024 primary is marked by political disarray, including Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal, which disrupted voter strategy and caused late decisions.
  7. Major campaigns are experiencing record spending, with Tom Steyer spending $200 million—20 times more than Javier Basera—highlighting a growing gap between self-funded candidates and traditional party funding.
  8. The absence of a Republican gubernatorial nominee could energize Democrats, potentially helping them win back five House seats, despite concerns about voter turnout.

Summary:

California's 2024 primary is a high-stakes, deeply strategic race marked by record voter turnout, complex ballot structures, and significant financial disparities. With over 89% of voters casting ballots early, the state's system allows for top-two advancement regardless of party, meaning two Democrats could win the governor's race or a mix of parties. However, results remain uncertain due to late voting, postmarking rules, and a slow count—only 52% of votes were tallied by sunrise.

Early data shows tight races, with Javier Basera and Steve Hilton leading in the governor’s race, and Karen Bass narrowly ahead of Spencer Pratt in the Los Angeles mayor race. Voter confusion persists, driven by the withdrawal of Eric Swalwell and strategic voting—such as supporting Tom Steyer to ensure two Democratic finalists—despite his massive $200 million self-funded campaign. This financial imbalance raises concerns about political integrity and voter influence.

In addition, the lack of a Republican candidate for governor may boost Democratic turnout, offering a path to reclaim five House seats. However, the broader political context—such as the Supreme Court’s approval of Alabama’s redistricting and CBS News’ firing of Scott Pelley—adds national tension to the state’s outcomes. While results are not final, the night underscores a shift toward voter agency, strategic decision-making, and deepening concerns about the role of billionaire donors in shaping elections.

California’s voting patterns and political dynamics are critical not just for state outcomes, but for national political trends.

FAQs

All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, which could result in two Democrats, two Republicans, or a mix of parties.

A significant number of voters cast ballots by mail, and those ballots can take up to eight or nine days to be processed and counted, especially if postmarked by the close of voting.

The top contenders are Democrat Javier Basera, Democrat Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton, who has support from President Donald Trump.

The race is nonpartisan, with incumbent Karen Bass leading at 38% and reality TV figure Spencer Pratt at 28%, though a runoff is likely if no candidate reaches 50%.

The red barrage refers to late-incoming votes, especially from Democratic voters, which can shift results significantly and delay the determination of top two candidates.

Voters are strategizing to ensure two Democrats advance to the general election, especially in hopes of avoiding a Republican governor and gaining seats in the U.S. House.

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