Mostly Likely First-Round Upsets With @WNBAData

This episode is brought to you by Major League Baseball. There is nowhere left to go. Two teams, one championship. Watch the World Series. Yeah, the World Series presented by Capital One on Fox and Fox One. No time like October. Visit MLB.com slash postseason to learn more. Gray roots entering the chat. Uninvited. Garnier's got you. Garnier Color Sensation Retouch covers up to 100% of grays in just 10 minutes. No ammonia, no mess, and the color lasts up to four weeks. It's as easy to apply as shampoo. Plus, it's vegan and cruelty-free. 10 minutes, sensational color, sensational price. With those savings, your next girls' night is basically free. Find your perfect match at Walmart.com or at a store near you. Welcome to the Ringer WNBA show. I'm Syrit Sohi. I am joined by Maddie Brown, a.k.a. WNBA Dad on Instagram, on TikTok, on YouTube, on Twitter. Where else, Maddie? Where else can we find you? Threads, I guess. Yeah, mostly Instagram and TikTok, I would say. Okay, yeah, those are the good social. Like, none of them are good. But those are the places to be. But truly, Maddie, I think that you do some of the best work on the WNBA internet. Your breakdowns are succinct. They are intelligent. They are well-researched. I love your background in the TVs and the euphoria-coded background that we just talked about before the show. It's all so creative. And I really feel like in the algorithmic hell that is WNBA social media content, you. You are a beacon of light. I truly look forward to everything that you make. So I'm so excited to have you on today. Thank you. On an evening where I think our heads are collectively spinning. Is this. Like, the WNBA playoff seating shook around, then got shaken back. I feel like it's like an hourglass just being shaken back and forth. I don't know. I've been. Wrapping certain matchups around my head all evening long, only to figure out that they're not going to happen because. In the most fitting fashion ever. You know, the referees decided that they were going to dictate the results in one of the most important, vital games of the season. But you know what? I'm getting ahead of myself. I'm getting ahead of myself here. When we woke up this morning, only one playoff matchup was decided. It was a Liberty versus a Lynx. Scary. It was. It was a really scary morning. How were you, like, out? So I'm at the. I'm in Minnesota. And I asked Stephanie White before the game. I'm like, look, like, it's the evening of the final day of the regular season. And I was talking to some fever people beforehand. And they hadn't had a flight book. They're spending. They're spending. They're spending. They're spending. They're spending the night in Minnesota because they have to fly. They're flying out in the morning because at that point, they didn't know where they were flying off to. And. Interesting. Fourth quarter, it looks like, you know, the. Well, not even fourth quarter. The fever basically let Minnesota walk all over them. And ESPN's Kareem Copeland is right beside me. And he books a hotel to Las Vegas. Meantime, the Valkyries and the Aces decide to do the funniest thing ever. There was only one scenario in which the Valkyries and Aces would switch spots from the two to the two and the three and change the fever series. It would be a Valkyries loss coming with a Aces win. And it looked like that was exactly what was going to happen until the fourth quarter of the Sparks versus Valkyries game where the Valkyries make a comeback. Gabby Williams has eight points. In three minutes, including the go-ahead three. And the Sparks have an opportunity. And Ray Burrell has an air ball. Nneka Ogumike, in a moment that would have been so fitting, she gets the offensive rebound. And it looked for a moment like she was going to have, like, a pantomime of the putback that she had against the Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA finals. And she's going to have a lot of fun. Three games though, that struck is is not very similar but i was watching your video um and it turns out that it it hasn't really impacted things that much like you don't actually see as many upsets as as as you as you think you do as you think you would yeah yeah like to be fair i guess there have been like i mean like relatively speaking in terms of statistics there haven't been a ton of like three game series i guess in wmba history but i guess like it was crazy to like look back the past few years when there was like the two one in the first round i think there was like literally no upsets or i forget what there was no upsets i think at all like which is not very excited through i don't yeah yeah yeah but does that justify the one one one like i feel like the travel situation is just so annoying and just like doing some like napkin math or whatever um i did a little math like for this video that you're talking about but i don't think i ended up keeping it in the video like i think in the first round the higher seed wins like 70 percent of their games at home and like 50 something percent away so then like when in when you have like the one one one versus the two one the chance of a sweet for the higher seed goes down from like 70 something percent to 50 something percent it's like but i think i think that's kind of clear when the second game is an away game for um that higher seed but yeah i think yeah it definitely still ultimately wins the series right like the higher seed ultimately still wins this series at a very similar rate right yeah so basically that's true through three what about literally i think literally it has been true it's just we just don't have a very small we have a really really small sample size of the one one one essentially yeah we get a little like the teams get a little bit more revenue but the best team still tends to go on is what's going on also on the point of travel one thing that i found interesting is you want to one of uh you had this series called like it was it was like the weirdest stat for every team and the wings you talked about being 14 and 6 at home um and 10 and 10 on the road and one of the reasons is that their defense doesn't travel and it's actually one of the biggest dichotomies of like home performance versus road performance obviously most teams perform better um at home than on the road but i was wondering if the travel aspect had to do something with something with it because if you look at a map of where all the wnba cities are and this will change next season with houston the wings have to travel so much just to even get to the closest location like the closest team to them is probably phoenix and it is like basically you know texas and new mexico away two huge states away um and then on the other end it's atlanta like they're smack dab in the middle of the country and in the south where like no other wnba teams are so i was like oh this probably is a travel thing and like steph white was saying today um or was it like i can't remember whether it was cheryl reaver steph white but they're basically the idea was if if it's going to continue to be one one one then we should bring back conferences um so that the teams aren't traveling such a crazy amount and it it tracks for this look at this fever aces series the fever and the aces are basically going across the country to play each other it's like that is that is pretty insane even like the golden the golden state to dallas series is like that's a long one mystics atlanta is fine um like it's not ideal like that's like but miss like mystics atlanta that's that's that's great like that's that's what you want but every every other team is traveling a pretty insane amount in these series and we already have like this is already the longest regular season that we've ever seen um just given like the 44 games the early start to the season and the fibo break like i'm really curious who's who's gonna burn out yeah yeah and i've been meaning to like make a video about like how many like how many players on each team like had to play in the FIBA World Cup like I mean I'm sure other people have like done something like that but yeah so many players not even just like the Team USA players but like it wasn't just like a two-week break doing nothing like we played 44 games plus had to go to Germany yeah exactly recently well it's like everyone is this entire sort of like week of the season it's had this very like hurry up and wait quality to it where I feel like everyone is sort of just like jet-lagged and discombobulated they're trying to figure out multiple scenarios the napkin math isn't helping and they're essentially just like kind of just like reorienting themselves while also everything changes really rapidly around them and they're about to play the most important games of the season it's one of the many reasons I feel like this this year in particular I think the first round is is is is primed to have some upsets like the difference also between the number one and the number eight seed has never been tighter as far as like games back at least in the in the in the post-conference era like this year this season I believe it's like a six game difference between the number one seed and number eight seed that's why even like we saw so much very so it's like this last game this last day of the season mattered so much because all the seedings were so close to each other um last year that difference was 17 like I think we're just dealing with so much more competition at the top end of the league like the liberty even like there is if they won the exact same amount of games that they won this season last season um they would have been like a number five seed which is exactly what they were last season this year they're that that means they're a number eight seed it's it's insane um it just makes me feel like okay like there's I don't know like what do you what do you feel like is is like the most likely upset whoa okay the most likely upset okay I'm looking at all of the options I'm looking at all of the options I'm looking at all the options I don't think the liberty are gonna upset the links I mean hopefully they don't are you a links fan no I feel like it's just like for the past few years it's like it's time for the links to win like it just feels like they've been so good like these past few years like I don't want to see them go out in the first round to like a liberty team that is not doing their best I don't I think they would agree to yeah yeah I like I I guess I feel like I don't want this to happen either but I feel like the fever like my mom I told you my mom said the fever could be the aces potentially or give them a run for their money like the fever I think I was looking at the stats like in my weird stat series one of my things for the aces was like so many of the aces games are blowouts in either direction like they have so few games that are decided by a small number of points and I think the aces have gotten blown out by the fever twice I believe by like 16 and 35 or something like that and they the aces beat the fever by two like one time so it feels like I haven't checked all the like confounding factors or whatever who has injured those games but it does seem like a dangerous scenario for the aces to be playing the fever I tend to agree with you um I do think although at the same time I think Asia Wilson is one of the big winners today because she skirted having to play Shakira Austin Kiki Iriafin and Lauren Betts and now she herself playing them well that's kind of what it is I mean with Melissa Smith out it's what like I think this is a reason she didn't play in FIBA I think frankly like we're gonna see a lot of potentially 40 minute games out of Asia Wilson in the first round like 38 minute games out of her because look Kalani Brown is probably not who you want on the floor trying to guard like Kaitlyn Clark and Kelsey Mitchell in space like the second she gets on the court the fever are going to identify that and they're going to try to take that away the aces are probably going to want to go small that's usually what Becky Hammond does in scenarios where you know just when but that's like her favorite button to push so I feel like that's the one that she's front court they just can't punish the aces in the same way that the mystics could like it's really interesting I was thinking about like who is the most likely upsets her and I was basically just ready to pick the mystics against anybody now the mystics have the dream who are the team that they're actually like the most evenly matched against and don't have like that huge advantage in their in their front court against the aces they absolutely would have and for this fever team Aaliyah Boston who's been dealing with a leg injury all season long walks off of the court dealing with that very same like leg injury and she just frankly hasn't been herself in the last three weeks I think KK Timpson could be huge in this matchup I just think she makes herself very difficult to guard you know like just her cutting her physicality her defense like Mo Billings probably becomes a hinge point but for what is kind of supposed to be like one of your bigger advantages I do feel I do feel like and unfortunately also the other thing too is that Ty Harris went down with what looked like a really horrible injury and like you definitely prayed for like the best for her but it just seems like I don't know that we'll be seeing Ty Harris going forward in the future for the Indiana Fever in the postseason. So a team that had, like, their depth was already pretty depleted. Yeah, interesting. Now that I'm talking it through, the Aces and the Fever are kind of the same. They have a big three. Everything around them is, like, you just don't know what you're going to get out of anybody else around them. They don't really have a lot of depth. They don't have international talent. A lot of it is really going to come down to their superstars. Yeah, but I feel like this is also, like, giving the vibes of the Fever in the playoffs last year, right? Like, weren't they also, like, limping through and then almost beat the Aces in the semifinals? That team did a different identity, though. Like, their identity was defense. Yeah, it's not the same. Exactly. Like, this year they had healthy Kaitlyn Clark. Last year they had a healthy Aaliyah Boston. This time Aaliyah Boston will at least be available. You flip those around. Like, the Indiana Fever last year played defense at a level that they simply don't. This season they had Natasha Howard, who is frankly a hero for them in a lot of different moments. Like, I don't know that they have. They don't have really a Natasha Howard type that's going to step in and fill a big role if somebody else can't play or if somebody else just needs, you know, somebody to come in and just provide some relief pitching. Like, I just don't know that they really have that type of player. I feel like they. Both of these teams kind of need their big three to play out of their mind. And I think it's going to make for a pretty fun series. My gut does say it probably is the most likely to be an upset. But I do think it's kind of close. Like, it's close in terms of which one's going to be an upset? It's close in terms of. I think the series is going to be close. I think it'll definitely go three. And I think we're going to see some really interesting matchups. Yeah, at least try to make it better. Like, I think. I think about, like, Jackie Young, what she was able to do against Indiana, their last game that they played, that third quarter that she had. And Kelsey Mitchell just couldn't really do anything with her. Lexi Hall couldn't really do anything with her. Ironic, it was actually. Kaitlyn's end-of-game defense on Jackie was really good. But then Chelsea Gray freed up and she hit that incredible game winner that reminded you why she's Chelsea Gray when everybody was talking about, oh, she shouldn't have made Team USA and all of that. That's another thing I'm curious about. I'm wondering who is going to. Like, will the young players, actually, take the torch? Like, there was a whole storyline going into FIBA. It didn't really feel like any of the young players wanted to take the torch. This year, you got Kaitlyn's playing her third playoff game ever. Paige is playing her first playoff game ever. Angel Reese is playing her first playoff game ever. Olivia Miles is playing her first playoff game ever. And it's kind of like two questions there. It's like, will the young players finally actually take the torch? And will, in accordance with, like, really what. what this season has all been about, will it be a guard-defined postseason? Like, the postseason has typically been defined by bigs, I think. In the last, like, I don't know, 10 playoff series, like, 18 of them have featured an elite power forward or at least, like, an elite center, like Brittany Griner, that has been, like, the cornerstone of those teams. And the only exception to that has really been Diana Taurasi, and Maya Moore. And even for DT, DT had Brittany Griner. So, really, it was. it was Maya Moore who also had Syl Phelps. So, it's like, you've always, like, that dominant post presence has been very defining for the postseason. And I think that refereeing will definitely play a factor in how that all shakes out. But I'm really curious, like, if one of these players actually just, like, transcends what we already know them to be on a level that then makes you say, oh, okay, no, this is actually the direction that the league is going in now. Yeah. Yeah, like, I'm looking at the list of teams and it does feel like there are some teams that are, like, this would be a guard going crazy. I mean, I guess, like, the Fever would be the guards doing it. Like, I guess, like you were saying earlier, if the Mystics do it, that would be a lot of forwards, probably. Yeah. Leading the charge. But, yeah, like, I guess, I guess it's interesting, like, if we have some kind of, like, shift in the landscape of the WNBA in terms of, like, the archetype of players or teams that do well in the playoffs, like, that would mean inherently that, like, the Aces don't go far, right? Because if the Aces go, then it's just more of the same, right? So, like, how would you see the links in this? Like, would you see, like, Olivia Miles being the one leading the charge? Or would you think that. I don't know. Is Nafisa, like, she count as this, like, power forward that's dominant in this case? Well, absolutely she does. Absolutely she does. But one thing that I think is really interesting about where the links are right now is Nafisa's kind of 80%, maybe 75% of what we normally expect her to be. It's something, like, she has herself said that she is not at 100%. And I think that this was something that kind of played out when the links, last played the Liberty, and that Liberty win, and has kind of been a theme in their last, in their few losses before this game against Indiana, where I think they really, really got back on track. And Fi was physical, and she made her presence very felt. But I think that Nafisa's re-entry into the lineup has had a couple different ripple effects. A, they are a much more jumper-happy team. They shoot more threes, and they don't get, they don't get into the paint as much. At least they don't finish in the paint as much. I do think she gets doubled more than Nia Coffey, of course. So, like, that plays a factor in it. And I think that Natasha Howard and Nia Coffey, Nia, Brody, sorry, which, by the way, if the links win the finals, that Brody jersey is going to be the coolest jersey ever. Like, links fans need to cop the Brody jersey if the links win the finals. So sick. But, yeah. I digress. But they, there was a more bifurcated, you know, role definition. Like, Howard's in the paint. Brody is spreading the floor. And with Fi and Howard, they're both kind of doing a little bit of the same. And you're starting to see them develop their chemistry together. But there is that element of it where, because everything's more compressed in the paint, as far as, like, the defensive attention, you know, somebody like Olivia Miles is making reads that are now spreading out to the three-point line. And the other thing is, Fi just hasn't been as physical. Like, Minnesota, they have a size deficit. And the way they make up for it is by being tough. Fi coming back from an injury, naturally, was not going to immediately go back into doing those kinds of things. So they suffered a little bit defensively on the boards. They suffered with their paint defense. And you could see all those things coming to a head against the Liberty in their last game. And I think that you could potentially, potentially see it happening in this Liberty matchup as well. What do you think? Yeah, I don't know. I'm not, like, totally caught up on who's actually injured or who has just been resting. Like, is Olivia Miles. I think Olivia is so. I think. So Olivia, she had the calf flare-up. I think she's fine. Right. John Quayle actually, like, had, like, an ankle tweak that I think. I think, you know, the state of the ankle is going to probably determine a lot of what is possible for the Liberty in this series. Don't think. Not really worried about Stewie either. I think a lot of it is just rest. The only real injury was John Quayle. And I think she's also, like, just based on what Chris DiMarco said, probably fine. However, you know, she's seven feet tall and twisted her ankle literally yesterday and they're playing on Sunday. So it is something. It's a wash. Yeah. Like, I guess from. I guess more of the Liberty side, like, I don't see them, like, having, like, that firepower to, like, really take over the Lynx even if the Lynx aren't, like, at full force. Like, maybe we'll be. I'll be proven totally wrong. But, yeah, I am not having a lot of trust in what the Liberty have been putting out recently. Well, we're here. I asked you to come up with, like, stats for the. playoff teams. Like, what were your stats for the Lynx and the Liberty? Um. Well, the Liberty. Let's see, what did I have? Okay. Like, I tried to, like, look at, you know, some different trends. Like, what are the main trends when teams win versus lose? And, like, the most obvious thing is they make more shots, which is not very interesting at all. Yeah. Like. When. I don't know. I don't know. Like, it's, like, tough with the Lynx because Nafisa, like, came back. Like, and I think, like, recently, like, I made that video that was, like, are the Lynx worse with Nafisa Collier back? Um, but I think. I don't know. I honestly don't have, like, a big stat for them besides, like, also, like, I've been researching, like, how the Lynx were the only team without, like, a big blowout loss of, like, at least one team. at least 15 points, now they have that. they've been blown out I guess sorry by the fever but that was like that game a few days ago when the starters barely played and yeah Cheryl kind of benched them but that worked out really well it seems like it did they seem really motivated today that was the funniest thing ever I was hoping that she would check them back in in the last 10 seconds of the game like just to really stick it to them yeah she took them out in like the second quarter it was incredible and I thought maybe she would put them back in in the second half and she was just like nope like honestly it was just a G move I love that that was awesome yeah really trust Cheryl yeah that's I mean she wins a coaching matchup in this series by orders of magnitude for sure yeah I do think that the size could be a problem for the Lynx it's like the only thing that they've struggled against and with the Fee thing it's interesting like I think they're just so much better they're actually like with Fee in the starting lineup they are much better they're plus 19 but a lot of that is because they're just so freaking good offensively but I do think now that the defense is starting to catch up to it like I kind of I don't know it's like maybe recency bias but just seeing what the Lynx did tonight I just feel like I'm back to kind of on that page of like this is the best team in the WNBA as long as they are reasonably healthy like they should make the finals they should take care of New York I think they're looking forward to that matchup I think they're looking forward to getting some revenge we know how heavily that loss weighed on them Nafisa has talked about how it's it's a pain that she will never be able to actually get over and I think that's a feeling that she shares with the rest of the team just given the way that game five went down and how they feel about the officiating I think that they just want really want an opportunity A to beat the Liberty again and also just to like finally cap off what has been an incredible run in the regular season now for three years with a title like they just seem like the most motivated team to me yeah like it feels like it would be like a huge letdown if they lost in this first round against the Liberty and yeah like especially with like the rumors I don't know if it's rumors or true that like Nafisa is like exploring her options in free agency after this season hopefully whatever happens hopefully the Lynx will end the season on a positive note and like I hope that means not a first round exit look the Liberty I mean the the Lynx fans really don't like when I talk about that possibility so I'm gonna just skirt right over at this time and hope for hope for the Lynx to have a good postseason because I do think regardless of what happens like you said it would be it would like this there are certain sort of like runs in sports where you hope to see a team win a title well when you were doing your when you were kind of just going through the stats and doing your research and stuff like what did what did stick out to you what made you excited about the stats like for any team yeah like what like yeah yeah um well I mean it makes me excited to see when there's like actually like a big gap in something when a team like wins versus loses like I guess I finally made it to my notes where like for the Lynx in particular their three point percentage well three point percentage overall is like second only to the fever I think on the season um and their three point percentage is like 40% when they win and it's like 31% when they lose and I love just seeing like a big gap like that like not to say like three point shooting causes them to win or lose like I always have to give that caveat to people but yeah just to be able to see like there is like a huge distinction there and that's true something like that is true for a lot of teams but yeah that's a huge gap there's also a huge gap in three point percentage and wins and losses for the wings it looks like and for some teams it matters more than others yeah no like I think I think that's part of what is sort of different about the post Collier Lynx like I do think that they are a little bit more uniquely three point dependent than they were before because it was sort of a layup line with that Howard Olivia Miles pick and roll and it just looks a little bit different now let's talk about the wings let's talk about the wings the wings are the wings are a bit of a wild card for me they're the only team that I don't think anybody expects to do anything they are playing a Valkyries team that basically knows how to take the soul out of anybody they have to go to Valkatraz where it is impossible to to even you know get an entry pass through to a big let alone actually run your offense but I think this team's kind of interesting they've been the most injured team in the WNBA this year but what it's done is it has forced Jose Fernandez's hand into playing one Maddie Westfeld who is obviously she's a bit of an advanced stats darling I think she's one of those players that you know national media types such as myself really get mystified by but this new lineup of Paige Arike Awok Weir Maddie Westfeld and Jessica Shepard is actually has the best offensive rating in the league in the second half of the season and I think it's both hilarious and depressing that this lineup has actually had zero minutes with AZ plugged in for Arike because Jose inexplicably just didn't play Maddie Westfeld while yelling about a lack of defensive rotations for the entirety of the season oh my gosh Maddie Segrist that's my bad Maddie Segrist I had to like double check I was like Maddie Westfeld could be on any team now as far as I know you know what's Maddie Westfeld up to what's Kathy Westfeld up to somebody's got to check in on those sisters no Maddie Segrist I think they're a bit of a wild card I don't know like a walk Maddie as a defensive protection I guess for Jess Shep is pretty interesting and you have Paige and her ability to just get her mid-range shot off from anywhere else anywhere on the court same with Arike I guess it ultimately depends and I'll ask you this question like why do you think the Aces have struggled so much with the Wings through the course of regular season that's a really deep question I don't know like I guess the fact that the Wings like have had like so much injury and like so much changing of their lineup like you're saying like now they're even having a lineup that we haven't like seen a ton I guess that's like their kind of secret weapon that it's like harder to prepare for in a way and I guess they do have like maybe a little bit more I don't know would you say they have more bigs than some other teams might I don't know if that's actually accurate now that I say it well it's weird because like Lan is out and that is obviously a huge loss yeah that would make a huge difference if she was there yeah and that's that's still up in the air so that makes a huge difference I think they have a lot of variability in their bigs especially now that Awok is playing more like Jeshep gives you very different things than Maddie who gives you very different things than Liyuru and then going down to Lan like I do think they have a lot of versatility in their bigs I think for most of the season it was really like outside of Jeshep they just couldn't really find any answers or they didn't want to go with the answer that was right in front of them all along in a player that is very young in the same age as your stars and is going to be a free agent at the end of the season and maybe you want to think about what you can do to make her want to stay but hey I'm not running the team what do I know they do have an interesting amount of depth and they have a player who just knows how to win who's going to have the ball in her hands and I'm not saying they're going to do it I genuinely don't think they will I think the Valkyries are just too difficult I think gosh yeah one thing that's interesting is the Valkyries defend the three point line and defend the rim really hard I do wonder if Paige will just be able to kind of sneak her way into the mid range and give them some problems there yeah that's a good point and you know classic Enrique could come out with the clutch shots dude absolutely honestly like I don't see it it's honestly probably the least likely of the scenarios but like also maybe I don't know like it's late i feel like i can just say that maybe anything could happen anything can happen exactly anything can happen um yeah but it doesn't feel like the wings are like i don't know explosive enough or whatever to like blow up in the valkyries defense at this point no but i do think that they can operate in a half court setting a little bit better than maybe like the fever could for example like i do think that maybe that aspect helps them like the valkyries really like to slow the game down i think that right um you know they play they play very differently than every other team the wnba like they don't even run in transition they use offense as a means to get to their defense um and we did a episode on them about like them shutting down your favorite player um and they have this sort of quality of we're just gonna slow the game down we're gonna play a ton of isolation so that we don't ever lose any floor balance and we can just kind of like grind you down honestly like we're gonna kind of just make it hell like make it like walking through molasses to play us and i don't know i mean i don't know page beckers of all this of all the young stars is probably the one that's most designed to play through molasses like i think a half court setting actually does sort of favor her strengths um i don't know it's a question more like the valkyries they should win but like it's i'm curious yeah yeah it would be kind of deflating if the valkyries didn't win i guess that's always true of the higher seed you expect them to win like i don't think there's any like higher seed that i wouldn't expect to win at this point i mean besides the most likely upset being the ace is getting upset but yeah like i it would be not quite as disappointing as like the links losing but if the valkyries lose yeah it'll be like their whole like best defense ever season like would be like for what well why it would i wonder if it would make people sort of it would kind of provide an answer to a question about what actually wins in this modern wnba right like the valkyries kind of zagged and the mystics kind of did too right like they but the valkyries kind of zagged valkyries really like philosophically value defense more than they value anything else at a time when you know everybody else is just trying to score the hell out of the ball like offensive rating is at all-time highs scoring is at all-time highs free throws three point three pointers going up all that stuff is at all-time highs and the valkyries have just decided that they're going to double down on the defensive end of the floor and if that succeeds and i think i could see people kind of going in that direction in the future like with their team building but if it doesn't and if it doesn't like i won't really go there yet because i ultimately think it will but if it doesn't succeed then this team that has a sort of five-year timeline to to win a title might also just start start having to rethink whether that philosophy works in the the setting of of what the wnba is now as well so yeah yeah i hope the valkyries can get to continue doing what they're doing because i feel like i would enjoy watching something like that more than i don't know if every team becomes the fever and they're scoring hundreds of points a game yeah no for sure just like running it i don't know i guess like as as like a uw university of washington girl like i mean the uw women's basketball team isn't like really known for being good but in recent years or maybe not like last year but they were like very slow pace they were like we're never taking any shots ever so i feel like i'm like accustomed to that now i'm loving it yeah so i hope the valkyries keep going i like i like having a level of variability in what teams do like i never want to see the wnba become a league where every team plays the same way like i like that there's the valkyries i like that there's like the mystics i like that there's the valkyries i like that there's the mystics who have just decided we're going to disavow the three-point line altogether we're actually just going to just try to destroy you in the paint um i like it i like it's it's it's good it's actually one of the things that makes the wnba really fun like you have post play you have teams that love to shoot the three-pointer you kind of like run the gamut as far as like different ways to win at basketball which is great um what do you think of the dream versus the mystics um like i think it's really interesting because it's kind of feeling like the dream like it feels also like the dream should be you know doing it they're like on the up they kind of i don't know had i don't know if they got like unlucky or they kind of like blew it against the fever last year in the first round um it feels like it's the dream's time but it also feels like the mystics are gonna do anything the mystics have like the best record in close games they have like a good record relative to their like small margin of victory um which is really funny but you could take that either as they're lucky or that they're good at closing out close games or you could take that as they're having a big lead and then it's dwindling down at the end of the game i'm not sure you can take that any of those three ways you want but they're winning close games so i feel like i'm not like predicting that the mystics will like upset the dream but if they did i feel like i would be upset personally i would feel so bad for the dream i think there's a real pathway to them beating the dream um and i think it starts with getting angel reese in foul trouble um anybody who's been talking about defensive player of the year knows that when she's off the floor um it's the biggest mark like margin of loss defensively for a team in the league because her backups just aren't gonna be able to provide a similar thing whether it's like sika kone whether it's medina okaw even with the dwana bonner now who's definitely given them a lift and it is interesting to your point like the mystics in the dream are two teams that are colliding at moments where they it feels like they have more momentum than just about anybody in the league right now which i think will make it a really exciting series and i think it'll be a really exciting front court battle um but the thing with the mystics is that yeah they're the number 12 offense but they have the number one free throw rate in the wnba and if there's one thing that you can kind of poke a hole in with angel reese and her defense it's how much she fouls and then when she does foul the downstream impact that has on what atlanta is capable of doing and i think it's going to be a really exciting front court battle like she is their most important player in my opinion by a pretty heavy by a pretty good measure in this series like they're going to need her to play heavy minutes they're going to need her to guard shakira austin they're going to need her to guard kiki iria fan they're going to need her against lauren betts um they're going to need her to be relentless on the boards on the block to try to kind of even though typically for atlanta they win the front court battle i think this is one of the few matchups where the mystics are going to be the number one free throw rate in the wnba and the mystics have the advantage there um and i think if they can get her into foul troubles and i think the the complexion of the dream just looks completely different from there and they also have that other factor too where like i think the dream frankly kind of just choked last year and i think indiana was a tough matchup for them i think the lights were too bright and i think that for them inexperienced with the playoffs was not a good thing i'm really curious what it's going to be like for the mystics because either the lights are too too bright or you play so out of your mind because like you don't even know like what what the level of pressure you should like you should be feeling is um and they're coming off like sony kiki coming off of team usa as well like kind of having that experience not really having to play a lot but getting to soak all that in i'm really curious like there's such a difference between playoff experience with these teams like benadryl amy hamilton's really good at it and i think that's going to be a really good matchup for really the only player um on the mystics that has real playoff experience um but that can go that can go in a lot of different directions but this is a really interesting opportunity for the mystics to prove that they're more than just fun but they're like that they're like formidable yeah yeah and like the mystics in a way they don't have anything to lose i guess but yeah you know kiki and sonia being on team usa but i guess also you have a lot of people that are like like the the ucla business going on at washington as well so like like they do like um lauren betts right michaela onion where they like they were both there for that i guess in some capacity so i feel like they've like been in the bright lights but i know that's different than like a three-game playoff series um in the wnba - Yeah, what else was I gonna say? Oh yeah, and like that, a good point about the dream like it would basically be angel reese versus like the mystics 100 really tall players yeah and if angel reese like gets into foul trouble that would be bad and like despite the fact that like i guess ryan howard also i don't know how much i haven't like been dissecting what everyone's saying about defensive player of the year ryan howard should be up there like she has like almost the same number of defensive windchairs as angel reese but having ryan howard out there like i guess to defend all these people like isn't the same as like having angel reese out there having someone with yeah inside i guess i imagine ryan would probably get the first assignment on sonia citron and yeah then you know from there if she does have to drop out of the team she's going to have to drop out of the team and she's going to have to drop out of the team and she's going to have to drop out of the team and she's going to have to down and play small it's something she can do it's something i frankly wish that they had um her do more but it seems like they usually just want to go to another big in those scenarios um which hey now that you have bonner it helps a little bit but then you're just i mean she's just gonna get pummeled by shakira and kiki like it's just a completely different deal than some of these play these teams that they've been playing lately the last time the mystics played atlanta like i i think that that front court like completely won that matchup because it's just it's they have a lot of heart and they just like even their guards like they just drive to the rim relentlessly as well like if it's not going to be kiki then it's going to be like cody mcmahon going downhill on you like it's just there's just so much like they just come at you in waves like i i kind of this is my upset pick i do think that they will upset the dream to be honest like i actually feel like the the mystics are going to win this series like i always i feel like i have two upset picks like i do think the fever the fever interesting like the fever on paper i think that they should beat the mystics but at the same time like for all the talents they have they just completely lack discipline and it makes me want to go with the team that i've seen win a title because like gosh like the fever they could be so good but like i just i literally just watched them do what they did against against minnesota and it's really hard to have faith in a team when they lay a goose egg like that like it's granted you know the aces definitely get blown out in the regular season as well but it's just different when you've already won the league already won a title um the lack of consistent defense and discipline on on their end i just think it's going to ultimately be their achilles heel yeah like we can obviously trust the aces to like rubber band snap back to full form anytime but yeah we can't we don't necessarily know if the fever will would do that the fever could lose in the first round and they could win the finals and neither outcome would surprise me at all yeah and yeah like you were talking about like the the highest scoring like highest offensive rating ever like that's what the fever are at this point so like if the fever go on and win the finals then i guess that would bring in the whole yeah firepower situation like the opposite of the valkyries and i think historically um like i was looking historically i think the whole like defense wins championships like isn't as true in a sense like usually like more often does the top offense in the league when the final really then yeah compared to the top defense that is yeah i was looking at a post by bob baloti baloti i'm not sure how to pronounce his last name today but yeah he compiled like a list of the most recent champions and like if they were like top and offensive and defensive rating and usually when the top defensive rating team in the league wins the title that team is also the best offensive rating team as well so it's like yeah it seems more like offense wins championships in a sense i mean i guess in terms of their regular season stats so that's why i could be worried that the fever might do it yeah i think like in the playoffs i guess you have to play the defense at that point the thing is the thing though is aces don't play any defense either outside of asia wilson um jewel lloyd and jackie young have given up more points than just about anybody else in the league per synergy i think they're like both bottom 10 and the and in the amount of baskets that they've given up chelsea gray it really just depends on the night and it depends on the matchup and it depends on how she's feeling i think like for the postseason i think in certain situations she's obviously very smart like chelsea hands forever on the on help like i'm sure she'll have some special moments like that but really it like just like i don't know like once the playoffs are around maybe she will play with like a level of consistency on the defensive end and maybe like jackie will step up too um but there's a reason that they have to start step talbot like they just can't trust any of their other perimeter players to consistently guard the ball and with the fever you have caitlin clark and kelsey mitchell like you have two of the most formidable for formidable scorers in the wnba who once they start breaking you down it's just kind of over i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know like honestly like it's so funny i feel like the fever are the biggest winner in the valkyries coming back against the sparks because the valkyries would have been an absolutely horrible matchup for them because they have the the perimeter defense to guard them kia stokes would have been able to at least play single coverage on alia boston and the valkyries just wouldn't have let them run i think it would have wouldn't been very very difficult for the fever to walk into valcatraz and try to actually dictate the game at their own pace like we've seen them struggle with that since caitlin has gotten into the league like i think that i think she had her lowest field goal percent and points per game are against the valkyries so honestly that refereeing call that we talked about at the start of the podcast and the way that that game shook out could be the difference between a fever first round loss and then potentially making the finals because this aces team they are kind of designed to beat this aces team honestly like if you can't defend the perimeter indiana is going to destroy you and there's just only so much that asia wilson can do without melissa smith out there like if they have to go small that that makes them even weaker on the perimeter um and yeah like the debt like there's a depth question like they both like it's like the depth the depth stuff cancels out too because the aces have depth questions as well they might have worse depth questions and the fever have somehow i don't know yeah somehow yeah but if the fever make it through and i guess assuming valkyries make it through they would play each other i think yeah if i'm reading all right okay so that's true yeah but yeah like maybe it would have been better for the fever to play the valkyries in a best of three with like you know more that's true more variants yeah that's a very good point yeah like to be able to get them without the ability to prepare either because like natalie nikasi is like one of the all-time preparation coaches i think as well so it might have been better if they just like went down you know in the morning like you know send it to like just shock them game one see what you can do yeah yeah that's true it might have been better to face them in in round one than it would be round two i think olivia miles and the links are really gonna i i'm really interested in seeing what olivia miles does in the postseason like i think that her basketball iq and her curiosity her ability to read the game i think yes she will probably have some struggles as all rookies do in the postseason but i think we're gonna see some really fun adjustments out of her i think i think watching her and cheryl reeve kind of figure out the chess match of series is gonna be really fun yeah and i do hope we get to see that play out for three rounds for them me too that's like i really can't for sure dude like they would play they would play potentially the mystics or the dream two teams that i think that would actually give them a lot of trouble in the second round because of the amount of size that they have and then the finals matchup between the valkyries or the aces or the fever maybe the wings no probably not the wings um could be anybody for that's an interesting path like they have that's a pretty difficult path i haven't really been able to think about the path much just i've been processing so much of what we just like learned yeah it does feel like so many different people could win these or i should say teams could win these first round games i mean i feel like we're kind of or at least i'm assuming the links are kind of a lock but then i feel like otherwise you know like other teams could swivel through the first round i think the valkyries might have the best path to the finals like they have the wings who are the team that anybody is okay with playing then they potentially have the aces they've really struggled against. but the Aces without Liss I just think is going to be a completely different scenario. That's the other thing. The Aces haven't really played anybody good since she's been out so I think we're underestimating how important she is. Or they would play the Fever who we talked about already really well matched up against and then they wouldn't have to deal with the Lynx until potentially the finals. That's about as good as you can ask for. Yeah, I need to update my stupid little simulation of the playoffs now that we know the seeding. But yeah, I ran it yesterday on the projected seeding. I think it was Lynx, then Valkyries, then I don't know. So I need to fix that right now. But preliminarily, I guess the Valkyries did have the highest probability to win the finals compared to the Lynx. This isn't a very sophisticated model but basically the Valkyries' chance was 25% compared to Lynx's 23%. And it was mostly because of that path that you were mentioning. The Valkyries' path, I think, is underrated. It's not good for them. When was the last time you updated it? Yesterday, but let me look. Oh, it wouldn't have changed. I just need to update the order of the seeding, I believe. Let's see. You don't, actually. I'm looking. It's the same. Wait, they're the one team who didn't have anything changed for them today, other than the Lynx and the Liberty. That's another feather in their cap. Yeah. Let's see. I think last time I did it, I had the Fever and the Mystics switched in 5 and 6. I think that was the only difference. And now. Well, it's better for them if they don't have to play the Mystics. Yeah. Yeah, but I guess now the Lynx and the Valkyries would be about equal, like, 23-24%. It's giving the Lynx a slight edge. And this is just a stupid little model just based on the. estimating the team's strengths based on the margin of victory in all of the games. So I guess it doesn't count, or it doesn't acknowledge when there's garbage time or. stuff like that. But kind of to, like, the point you made at the very beginning about, like, all the teams, like, at the top being, like, really close together in terms of the standings, that's also true. Like, when I do, like, little models like this, all of the top teams are, like, very similarly rated. Like, yeah, when you just, like, look at score differential and not just, like, wins and losses, they're all, like, pretty close together. It's kind of, like, a rift between the best and the. worst team. Is there anything your models are saying that's surprising you? It was a little surprising at first. And I'm planning on making a video about this as well, hopefully tomorrow. I'm not sure when this episode will go out. Right away. Right away? Well, beautiful. Yeah, I'm gonna make a video about this, but, like, just, like, even rating or, like, ranking, I guess, the teams, it underrates the Mystics compared to their actual standings. Like, according to my little model, the Mystics are the worst of the playoff teams easily. Oh, wow. And I think it's because of their. they win games by, like, so few points, so that's, like, what it's seeing that they, yeah, don't blow out teams. But, I don't know, you win games, you win games. So, I don't know. Yeah. The math could be better. The math isn't accounting for dog. The dog factor. Yeah, it's not accounting for their height, how tall they are, and how young and how much energy they have compared to other teams, maybe. Exactly. Exactly. The math doesn't favor the young hosts. That's okay. They have other things. They have youth on their side. When you think about mathematical figures, would you want any wins in any other category other than youth? I just feel like that's one of the biggest sources of upside that you can have in sports and in life. Not to be ageist, but. No, youth and height, and that's what they have. Yeah. Size. Size. Yeah, and now they have Nigel Laney. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Exactly. Oh, Matt. Well, hey, Maddie, thank you so much for making the time today. I really appreciate it. It was fun to break down the postseason with you and just sort of, like, talk through all the different matchups that we learned were going to happen today. I'm so excited for the postseason to start. The first round is so interesting because you have game one and then immediately somebody is whoever loses, they are on the brink of elimination. Like, the immediate like, the weight panic can just set in. I know everybody wants a series to be longer. I do too. More basketball is great. More playoff basketball is great. But for the period of time that we have, these three-game series, I do think that we should just, like, enjoy the chaos that they can potentially bring because eventually, they're all going to be seven-game series. And that will be glorious. That would be awesome. But, yeah, this is a moment in time. Yeah, I'm sure we'll wake up tomorrow and be like, wow, like, there's actually so many possibilities we didn't consider. Like, what if the Lynx lose their first game? Then that's so scary. Yeah, I mean, it changes, like, the entire, like, it can like, the that's what the other fun thing about the playoffs, too, is, like, these storylines change on a dime as well. It's like, you know, Lynx could lose their first game. We could all go into panic mode. They could just, like, win their next two and it'd be completely fine as well. But that's what sports and the playoffs and you know, the postseason is all about. It's all like, the stakes are actually here now and I like to panic. Yeah, you know, there's a reason they play the games and you don't just simulate the results and say that's it. Exactly. Exactly. But still, we enjoy your simulations here. Maddie Brown. Thank you. You can find her at WNBA Data on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Twitter and you said threads, which I am not on because it seems like a truly unhinged WNBA environment, but I do hope that people are finding you on there because I hope, I want more people to find your work. I just think, I think it's really, really interesting. And I appreciate you lending your insight to us today. Yeah. Thanks for having me. It's been interesting to reflect and yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Thank you to Stefan Anderson for producing as well. And we will be back after the first game once, presumably, honestly, to panic. So, watch out. Watch out for that.