Monday, October 26, 2026

It's Monday, October 26, 2026. I'm Albert Moeller, and this is The Briefing, a daily analysis of news and events from a Christian worldview. Big elections just about everywhere you look. Three big election stories. Number one, we have the midterm elections coming up one week and one day from today here in the United States. I think most American Christians are primarily concerned about that. We will get to the midterm elections, big developments there. We will get there momentarily. In the meantime, internationally, two huge elections. Number one, on Sunday, Brazil went to a runoff in the presidential election, and that was a face-off between the current leftist president, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Flavio Bolsonaro, who's the son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president who is now in prison. He was very much a conservative president, Flavio Bolsonaro, following in his line, and if he was elected, when the election was held just a matter of days ago with other candidates, Flavio Bolsonaro led, but he didn't win an outright majority, and thus there had to be a runoff, and that's always dangerous for someone who leads in a multi-candidate election. That means that in one sense, one of the big things that person has to avoid, or at least try to prevent, is all the people who voted for other candidates gathering together to vote against him. That is at least in part what happened in Brazil. It was a victory for the left, no doubt about it. It was a victory for the left after the right had been winning many victories in that region. As a matter of fact, at least some observers think this is the only major election in recent times in which there was a clear right-left distinction, and the leftist candidate won. But when you're talking about the man who was now re-elected to a new term, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, you're talking about someone who's very well known on the left, the political and ideological left, and has been for a long time. He's 80 years old, and he has been in office before. He served two terms before, and then, of course, you had some other developments, including Jair Bolsonaro. And now you have the candidate most popularly known as Lula elected to yet another term. Now, he's a very old man, but that was a big test, because even as he's a very old man running against a fairly young man, very much a part of Brazilian politics as well, it was clearly a face-off between personalities and a face-off between ideologies. So, I think that's a big test. And I think that's a big test. A face-off between political profiles. There is no doubt that in Brazil, you have a very clear left-right distinction. And you have President Lula knowing that. You had Jair Bolsonaro, the first Bolsonaro in national politics. He clearly knew that. And then you had Flavio Bolsonaro. He pressed the point himself. And he had a good chance at being elected president of Brazil. That would have changed Brazilian history. Now, does this mean there is in Central and South America kind of a shift back to the left? That is not at all clear. And a part of this has to do with the fact that Bolsonaro is one of the most controversial names in Brazil. Very big support and very big opposition. The same thing, by the way, is true of President Lula da Silva. He is someone who also very much is a divisive figure. He just happened to get more votes. And in this case, it's a pretty clear vote with about 99.9% of the votes counted as of last night. Now, there might have been some irregularities. There were reports that the president had offered to keep the polls open for another two hours. Meanwhile, several precincts had closed. They could not reopen voting. So there may have been irregularities. But in this case, at least in terms of where the vote was reported last night, the vote was pretty clear a win for President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva to yet another term. You're going to hear a lot of discussion about what this means, left, right, in terms of Central and South America. But in all likelihood, a lot of that is simply going to pass out a front-line, front-page conversation because of the other big election story. And that is the national election coming in Israel. Israeli voters will be going to the polls on Tuesday. And Israeli politics has almost, from the very beginning, go back to the 1940s, it has been a pretty riotous form of direct democracy, parliamentary democracy. And so the big question is whether or not the Likud party, and that means Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will serve an even longer term as Israel's prime minister. Now, Netanyahu is already the longest-serving prime minister of Israel, and frankly, it's not close. And furthermore, you're looking at the transformation of Israeli politics after the terror attacks of October 7, 2023. And you can't avoid having Benjamin Netanyahu at the center of that, precisely because he was prime minister then, and by the way, was elected to that term as prime minister in terms of his long sequence, partly in a very clear statement of national security and national concern. And so this would tend to put Benjamin Netanyahu on something of a hot seat. At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu has been basically the essential man in Israeli politics for the better part of a generation. And there's a story behind that we need to think about. And as you're looking at and anticipating the election in Israel on Tuesday, just think about this. When you look at Benjamin Netanyahu, you're looking at the head of the Likud party who has spent 19 years as prime minister of Israel. That's an extraordinary length of time. You're talking about soon, if he's reelected, he will have served 20 years as prime minister. Just think of all the presidents of the United States he would have served with. And by the way, his first term was relatively short. It was from June 18, 1996 to July the 6th, 1999. If you're counting, that's three years and 18 days. And then given the very unsettled nature sometimes of Israeli politics, he was out and he was in opposition. He was in an election. He took over as prime minister March the 31st, 2009, and then served through June the 13th of 2021. So that was 12 years plus 74 days. His third term began on December the 29th, 2022. And he's in that current term. He's now up for reelection. And the big question, or that is, he is heading his party in the election. The big question is whether he will have a sufficient parliamentary majority, either with his party, that's not likely, or in a coalition with other right-wing parties, that's more likely, whether or not he's going to be able to prevail and then have the first opportunity to put together a government. And then you look at the other side of the election there, where the main candidate opposing him, and you have to put it that way, the main candidate with the main party opposing him is former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot. And he himself is not a liberal figure, which just shows you something massive when it comes to Israel. The political shift there, and it wasn't just after the election, October 7, 2023. It was even before 2023 and that horrifying attack by Hamas. The fact is that Israel has become a far more conservative country. And we're going to come back to that and talk about it because it's not just because of political and military developments, though those are central. It's also because of demographics. That is also related to theology. Things are going to get really interesting. So as we're thinking about the election, the big question is who's going to get the most votes? Which party is going to get the first shot to put together, if not a majority, then a coalition majority. And so when you look at who gets the most votes, that means which party gets the most votes. There's still a fairly good likelihood that Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party will get the votes. Mr. Eisenkot and his Yashar party, it is threatening and it just could happen given however the voters in Israel are going to decide. It is basically a decision, let's put it this way, as to whether or not Mr. Eisenkot or Mr. Netanyahu will have the opportunity to try first to put together a coalition government. Now, here's another big issue. When in a parliamentary system of government, you have to put together a coalition government, that means you have to make deals. And this is where the situation in Israel has really changed. It's changed because the Likud party has been in power for so long. It is a conservative party, but the country overwhelmingly has turned more conservative. Now, in order to understand this, we have to go back to the formation of Israel. Let's go back to 1948, 1949. The Jewish leaders who established Israel as a state, very brave act, incredibly brave act, fighting incredibly brave wars of national existence. You go back to that kind of leadership, David Ben-Gurion, Golda Meir, you just go down the list. They were not especially religious when it came to their Jewish identity. And if anything, that is an understatement. As a matter of fact, a good many of the leaders of Israel were not even theists. So, they were not especially religious when it came to their Jewish identity. They identified with Jewishness as an ethnic heritage, which they prized and were very proud of and courageously in defense of, but they were not very religious. And that's the term they would use. Now, there's another part of this, and that is that the leadership in Israel has basically been made up of those described as Ashkenazi Jews. So, those are Jews of an overwhelming European heritage. So, just think about Jewish history over the course of the last centuries, and I mean many centuries. And this is where you have a division between the Jewish people and the Jewish people division between the Sephardic Jews and the Ashkenazi Jews, the Ashkenazi Jews, which have been the elite in Israel for a long time, and in many ways are the elite in European Jewish communities, and in some ways in the United States as well. They have overwhelmingly European roots in terms of their family. Now, of course, you go back far enough, and you're not talking about European roots. But over the course of, let's just say, the last millennium, the last 1,000 years, you really are looking at two different identities. Mizrahi, the other word for Sephardic, and so many of The Sephardic Jews are not only not from Europe, and in particular, not from Western Europe, but they are also overwhelmingly from places like North Africa. And thus, you have a very different Jewish identity. Now, this is where there have been two huge changes in Israeli politics and in the composition of the nation. Change number one, you have now a majority of Sephardic immigrants and others who have been coming into the country. That has changed the literal makeup of the population and, of course, the electorate there in Israel. And by the way, the Sephardic Jews have long felt that they were mistreated by the Ashkenazi Jews. And so this could be a giant development. And in some ways, if indeed Mr. Eisenkot, formerly General Eisenkot, is elected the new prime minister, if he is the one who wins the most and puts together a coalition, he would be the first Sephardic or Mizrahi Jew. To serve in that kind of position there in Israel in an elected form. Then you also have the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu, who is Ashkenazi, has also a very interesting background. And so his background is overwhelmingly rooted in Europe, at least in terms of, say, the last several centuries. But when it comes to Benjamin Netanyahu, a lot of Americans don't know he's a graduate. He did his undergraduate work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT. His father, and for that matter, his father and his mother, his parents. For here, his father was working in the United States. He did a graduate degree in management at MIT and then entered a doctoral program, which he did not complete because he went back to Israel to get involved in politics. OK, why did he do that? Well, number one, if you know native political talent, there is no question that Benjamin Netanyahu just has a great deal of political talent. As a matter of fact, he is one of those politicians now, the longest serving prime minister in Jewish history, who is often described as a master survivalist. When it comes to politics. And so, by the way, you have very interesting articles. Yesterday's front page of The New York Times, a headline asking the question, as Netanyahu has evolved, have voters taken after him? OK, well, let's just think about that for a moment. How did he evolve? Well, in a more conservative direction. And the big thing here is an evolution when it comes to Israel's military situation. Let's just say October 7, 2023 is a major transformative moment. But it's beyond that for Benjamin Netanyahu. Now, let's also stop. Let's stop for a moment and remember something very important about Prime Minister Netanyahu and his family. His brother was very famous, mostly famous after he was dead. Yonatan or Yoni Netanyahu was killed in the Entebbe raid undertaken by the IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces in 1976. A plane had been hijacked, which was flying from Jerusalem to France. And a combination of forces, terrorist forces against Israel that included both Palestinian and some German extremists, they took over the flight. They threatened to kill everyone on board. They flew, eventually making a stop at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, where the dictator Idi Amin was giving them basically hospitality. But the Israeli Defense Forces, the IDF, put together one of the most daring anti-terrorist rescue raids in all of military history, something that has happened by the IDF before. They are known for establishing new weapons. New ways of rescuing hostages and new demonstrations of bravery. Only one of the Israeli commandos on that raid was killed, and that is Benjamin Netanyahu's brother, Yonatan or Yoni Netanyahu. And, you know, even as the raid is remembered for saving so many lives, there is one man who instantly became a national hero to the Israelis. And his death was also a part of Benjamin Netanyahu going back to Israel and establishing an Israeli identity. And an identity in Israeli politics. Now, when we talk about his more recent leadership in Israel, in particular after the October 7, 2023 terror attacks, it wasn't just those attacks. Even over the course of the years preceding, Netanyahu had come to the conclusion that Israel's military and strategic predicament was permanent. That there simply was no way that Israel was going to be able to live as a normal nation. And thus, Israel, that from its very beginning had to fight for its survival, was in a position in which it basically could end up in something like permanent war, just in order to survive. Now, the bravery and the expertise of Israeli troops, and in particular Israeli commandos in the IDF, very, very well known. But you're also looking at the fact that Israel was caught, at least in part, by surprise on October 7, 2023, which was a deep shock to both the political and the military systems there in Israel. And so, even as Pearl Harbor really became a signal moment in American history, never again, the same thing was true of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel. Never again. Okay, so that leads to something very interesting. And that is that when you look at the two main candidates we're talking about here, and remember, that means the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud party. And then also, on the other side, you have Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party. And so, here's the thing, that this is not a left-right election. This is not like Brazil. Brazil was leftist. This ideology versus conservative ideology, that is really not what we're talking about here. Both of these candidates are conservative. Both of these candidates are light years more conservative than the founders of Israel. Both of these candidates, representing these two now major parties in this election, they both see Israel, at least in a very real sense, as now in a permanent war for survival. They also are agreed in opposition to a Palestinian state. And so, this is why the American liberal media is basically all up in arms, because as much as they dislike Netanyahu, and trust me, they do, the reality is, they really are not going to like a new Prime Minister, Gadi Eisenkot, if indeed he wins the election and puts together a coalition. And that's just another reminder that where you are located makes a big difference. We'll talk more about that in coming days. But Brazil is not facing a constant national security danger from outside. They face some real security. They face some real security dangers on the inside. Israel faces a permanent reality of being surrounded by enemies who wish its non-existence. So, okay, we will watch what happens. That election is Tuesday. And because of the timing, we could well know a great deal by the time we talk about that election on Wednesday. It's very different than a national election or even a midterm election here in the United States, where given the way some states operate, it may be not just hours, but days before we know the results of some very important elections. We are likely, however. When it comes to next Tuesday, we are likely to know a direction and momentum. This is something to prepare yourself for, even as we want to know how these elections are going to turn out. Control the House, control the Senate, control of critical state houses. And, and we'll talk about this more later this week, in both parties, you've got people already asking the huge question, who's going to be the standard bearer for our party in 2028? The midterm elections in a president's second term just function this way. And unusual. In unusual times like this, where especially you have a party that has the president and control, or at least marginal control of both houses, the likelihood is that in the midterm election, the party opposed to the incumbent president has a real advantage. And by the way, the Democratic Party also has an advantage in terms of the press coverage and that kind of attention as well. But there are some huge stories we're going to track. There are big developments when it comes to Abdul Asayid, the candidate. The Democratic candidate for the Senate seat in Michigan. Very interesting developments there that we'll be talking about. Big issues also related to several other, mostly statewide elections. So in all these states, you've got House elections, and that means every single member of the House of Representatives is up for re-election, if he or she is running for re-election, when it comes to just next Tuesday. And then about a third of the Senate, and that's where things are likely to get most interesting. And then you also have some very interesting races when it comes to the state. In particular, governor's races in several of the states. So we'll be looking at that. But in the meantime, I want to turn to the Senate race in Texas, because that's where some things are really getting interesting. And once again, it's interesting when the mainstream media recognizes there's a huge story there. We just might have to pay attention to it. And I'm not saying in every case they're even probably aware of how their own worldview is operating in all this. But I'll tell you this. It is interesting that Saturday's edition of The Times had a front page article with the headline, For Tallarico, Texas Record Tells Two Stories. Lauren McAfee is the reporter on the story. It really is interesting. And I have known of this development for a long time in this part of Tallarico's background. I think it's very interesting now that eight days out from the election itself, and in this case, I guess you could say Saturday, you might say generously nine days, you have one of the nation's major newspapers pointing out that there are two different stories when it comes to this Democratic candidate. Now, number one, the question is, is the story left or far left? And this is where things do get pretty interesting. Because when James Tallarico, you know, famously presented as a Presbyterian seminarian, when James Tallarico was first elected to the state legislature, he was elected in a fairly moderate district. But Republicans redistricted, and he had to run in a different district. He moved to a district that is far more liberal. And then he turned out to be far more liberal. That's why the headline says, For Tallarico, Texas Record Tells Two Stories. Listen to this. James Tallarico's record in the Texas legislature has been the tale of two Tallaricos. There's the Tallarico who flipped a competitive House seat. around Austin and arrived in the Capitol in 2019 as a 29-year-old, a Democrat preaching bipartisan cooperation. There he accomplished things by working with Republicans, including 39 bills that became law with his name on them. Then there's the Tallarico, who was a vocal progressive fighter, especially after Republicans redo his district lines, pushing him to run in a liberal Austin area. Voters there cheered as he fought unsuccessfully against religion in public schools and in favor of transgender rights. Now, I want to give the Times credit. They go at some of the most ridiculous things that Tallarico said in defense and in support of the transgender movement. So describing the two Tallaricos, the Times declares, quote, Mr. Tallarico and nearly every other Democrat in the legislature unsuccessfully opposed bills restricting transgender athletes' participation in youth and college sports. He also voted against legislation banning gender transition care for minors, including puberty blockers and hormone minors. He also voted against the bill restricting transgender athletes' participation in youth and Now, just remember, that means that he had voted against legislation that would have put limits on these transgender treatments for teenagers. Then the article says, quote, Mr. Tallarico described God as non-binary during one debate on the sports bill and said there were six sexes, meaning they're human beings, and another, quote, modern science, he said, obviously recognizes that there are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six, end quote. I'll just tell you, the most the huge question, how exactly did he come up with six? He didn't tell us specifically what those six are. Leaves you wondering. But not too much, because we as Christians understand there are two and only two biological sexes. But the very fact that you have two Tallaricos, and so if that's the Tallarico is more activist on the on the liberal side, then where is he now in this 2026 election? Quote, as a Senate candidate, Mr. Tallarico is trying to revise some of those remarks. He describes the statement that God is non-binary is intentionally provocative. OK, yeah, to say the least. Although he voted against the treatment ban, he emphasizes that he supports an amendment to the bill to restrict operations. And he says he supported then restrict operations for minors. In September, in an interview on Fox News, he said he opposed transgender athletes playing in girls sports if it endangered safety or fairness, end quote. I just want you to understand that once you put that clause in, it sounds very morally significant. But then just understand what happened you put the burden on girls to prove that they have been unfairly discriminated against by a particular transgender athlete, which means a boy on their teams. That is not fair. It's one of those things that the left puts forward in order to sound fair. But we just need to understand that is not fair. It is interesting that one Republican leader in the state legislature there, and this would be Tom Oliverson, the chairman of the House Republican Caucus. He, by the way, had been the legislative sponsor of that ban in 2023 on gender transition care for minors. He said, quote, he will excoriate you. Speaking of James Tallarico, he will excoriate you like you're Satan himself. And then three seconds later, act like he's your best friend. But then he concluded, quote, I like James on a personal level, but there is a lot of performative theater that is James Tallarico, end quote. OK, OK. Now, when it comes to politics, a lot of politics is performative theater. And there is no one, by the way, better at performative theater than the current president of the United States, Donald J. Trump. He basically is, in some ways, redefined the presidency in terms of performative theater. But when it comes to performative theater in this context, you have to wonder if that means that James Tallarico is ever showing his true self. Over time, I think most Americans have pretty much figured out President Donald J. Trump. There has been ample opportunity when it comes to James Tallarico. Even The New York Times says, well, already there have been two James Tallaricos. And by the way, neither one of them is conservative. And by the way, neither one of them is in the right position on transgender issues and any number of other things. And neither one of them has been willing to take a really clear stand, even when it comes to defending girls, when it comes to sports and other contexts like this. What you do have, however, is some second guessing now coming on the part of not only the mainstream media, but second guessing coming on the part of some Democrats. But you can count on the fact, by the way, that Republicans are doing some some reconsideration as well. They're already looking at the situation. And by the way, they are certainly understanding the very significant complications. Let's put it that way. Very significant complications when it comes to Attorney General Ken Paxton, who's the Republican nominee running against the Democratic nominee, James Tallarico. When it comes to Ken Paxton, very complicated background, very controversial background. And so the Republicans are also looking at the situation, knowing that they have a significant challenge. Now, when it comes to the importance of that Senate race, the voters in Texas had better keep in mind that the biggest question and this is really hard I think for a lot of people to understand, the biggest question is is really a dual question. That question is, for whom should we vote when it comes to the man who will serve as the U.S. senator in that seat representing Texas? But the second question is, which party is going to have control and what would that mean for Texas? Let's just say when it comes to an election of James Tallarico, there are going to be an awful lot of complications when it comes to his representation of Texas in the United States Senate. And I'll just make a prediction. I think the same prediction. If you're looking at which of the two James Tallaricos is likely to be elected if he does win this race, I think it's likely to be in some sense, at least the public face forwarding the more, well, let's just say cooperative James Tallarico. But when it comes to positions on the issues, I think he's already given ample opportunity for voters in Texas and for that matter, observers all over the United States to know exactly where he is. If you can't answer the transgender question straightforwardly, I think in one sense that says just about everything about your worldview. All right, as I said, buckle your seatbelts. It's going to be interesting. Thanks for listening to The Briefing. For more information, go to my website at albertmohler.com. You can follow me on X or Twitter by going to x.com forward slash albertmohler. For information on the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, go to sbts.edu. For information on Boyce College, just go to boycecollege.com. I'll meet you again tomorrow for The Briefing. I'll see you then.