Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top

I am joined once again by Milton Berg of MB advisors and Milton Berg Edge. Milton is one of the greatest market technicians alive and he focuses on a lot of things that most technical analysts don't follow. He's mostly not looking at charts, he's looking at data, he's looking at turning points. Milton is great to see you again. Welcome back to monetary matters. Thank you Jack. Nice to be back. We have a nice meeting last time for R5. Right after gold peak and now we have a good meeting because it looks like stocks may have bottomed, at least the semiconductors and the Cospy may have bottomed. You have to really shop to clients. Let's see. Yep, you had a great call when you identified the top in gold and silver. I believe you actually sold your personal precious metals the day before the high, actually the day of the high. Day of the high, day of the high. So Milton, I know you got a lot of buy signals in early April. We will get into that over 30 buy signals with median projections of between 8,000 and over 10,000 on the S.P. We will get into that in a moment Milton. But first, where do you think stand right now? Oh, tell us about the panic low you saw in July 29th. The potential bull readings you see right now, potential readings you see now and to what degree your confidence and why in your various portfolios and model portfolios, you are positioned the way you are. So what's your frame? What's your positioning right now and why? Okay, well, currently we're positioned 100% long. This is our positioning. EWY is a Caspian Dex, we're positioned 5% long Caspian. Korea. Korea, right? We're positioned nearly 10% long the Russell 2000, 5% long the S.P. mid caps, 10% long the Nasdaq 100, 20% long the Sox and 49, nearly 50% long the S.P 500 through the spy. Point the out, we just positioned long on July 29th and 30th because we were short until then. So we actually covered our shorts the day to the low, day after the low and went long. So that's really a position currently. It's really diversified mainly in the Sox is an index that lost some over 20% will get that in a minute and the Caspian of course is down nearly 40%. So we really got into the loons just thinking that they were way over the solar, some panic selling and they should at least have a short term bounce if not more. Anyway, that is our position. But basically we're bullish in the market now along the market with some cabinets which are very, very important cabinets. I can start with the S.P 500 if you'd like. And the S.P 500 basically peaked in late May. It made a mind in the Ohio and June on a closing basis. But it collapsed about down 40% to June 9th just a couple of days after its peak. It never made a lower low. The low and July 29th was a positive divergence against the low in I think with June 9th. June 29th low was above the low in June. So that's what's called positive divergence. The market although people are panicking selling out the semiconductor stocks and NASA 100 was making new loaves and the semiconductor industry is making new loaves. But the S.P dynamic in the low which is positive divergence which a technician would say that's just a sign that the market should be headed higher. That's one positive sign. I use it with Chairman Gummary date. Every time I mention cycle dates people I know people comment on your side. Oh what's he talking about? I shut the Zoolfai soon. I heard about cycle dates. I want to point out that we have some of the most sophisticated money managers in the world as clients. And they're very, very happy that we talk about cycle dates because cycle dates is something that other people don't look at. People talk about seasonality. We see it now is also something which really doesn't make any rational sense. But the cycle dates often work very, very well in pinpointing market turning points. Earlier in the year, if I can show you here, we listed what are cycle dates. As you can see, we had a cycle date on January 30th. There was a date, the gold collapse, you see. I made a cycle date on right here on July 29th. He tried to try to use a 26 cycle date. That was a center of the date. The point is that cycle dates help us out in pinpointing turning points. So the reality is that the S.P. bottom of July 29th made a nice spike low. Turned right up, made a new high on a closing basis on Friday. And today's doubt a bit. But basically, the market was bullish off the July 29th high, low and we were long. Looking at the technical analysis over here, I point out that there's another cycle period right now. You see this square here where this hip square is telling you that the next four days are possible. It's possible to see another turning point where the market might peak. Now what's the logical reason? Why would we as a turning point to the market just bottom? The reason is because maybe the market is making a broad top here. The reality is, although the S.P. has a new high at Friday's close, you look at other indices like the Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq 100 is below its low of early in the year. Below its low of June 2nd. Nasdaq at its high, it's 3.02 percent below its high. It's currently 3.02 percent below its the high it made in in June 2nd. And you take another index like the Philadelphia semiconductor index as well. And that at Friday's close was 15.57 percent below its peak on June 22nd. So the point I'm trying to make is, although we were bullish on the market and although we are we're thinking the market rally, it's possible you've got to always store in July with a short term low with a sharp sharp rally. You know you have the five day rate of changes, the greatest and over year and two over the major indices. So you saw a sharp rally lasting about maybe one of the six seven days, but it's possible it's just a leg up with negative divergences, negative divergences meaning yes the piece making a new high, the Russell made a new high, but the many other broad indices are not making a new highs. And it's possible we will go back down to test the lows. Now when it gives a historical example, now you realize we had really we had a serious decline in two major index indexes. We had a serious decline in the Cosby, Korean index right, major Korean it was declined 43.93 percent in 27 days. Bottom again on July 29th, the Montgomery cycle date, which was a 30.8. And we had the Philadelphia semi-execup your index also had a major decline. I mean that was a leader up over 100% from its lows in March to its peak in June. It declined 28.73 percent into the July 29th low. So I gave it historically when you see a crash low at least historically these lows are tested. Markets generally don't crash and go straight straight up. Now of course it was an exception in the COVID situation when the market was down some 35 percent or so into its COVID load and made a V-bottom and turned right up. That's generally not the case. I give two examples of what might happen now. And this is the 1987 crash low. You see the mark was down, that's period down 45.94 percent, similar to the decline of the Cosby. That was low but it ultimately tested the low, came within a percentage point in the low two months later. That's what happened at that particular crash low. Therefore I'm suggesting that the Cosby and the socks may rally, may peak right around here and trade back down to the lows. You may peak right around here because as I said currently we had a cyclical period which has colder past the end of short-shopped rally, short-shopped rallies after what you call a cyclical low. So basically we're positioned 100 percent long with bullish, we're on the lookout for the possibility of a short-term top here and we don't think the S&P would test the lows if we're in a bullish situation but we think it's more than more than the random chance that the socks index and the Cosby index trade back down towards their lows sometime in the next month or two. And we're cautious about that. Now again we're 20 percent long the socks, the Philadelphia semi-tiped index and where 5 percent long the Cosby, I want to be long by his shorts, it's going to test its lows. So really watching out to see whether there will be evidence of a trading point right here in the current market. There is evidence, there is equivocal evidence that the market's topping here and that is because you see this gap in the Nasdaq and the X100 gaped into before they did the low degenerated gap. Now gap or fallow is usually considered a breakaway gap, right? It's usually positive gap but I've seen in the past many many instances where the market makes the spike low rallies up and this gap is actually exhaustive. It's aside the people think the bull market is still intact or red is from major up and move and only the market turns down. So this gap I say is possibly exhaustive, possibly a negative sign. If it would be a positive sign the market should really should have straight up. This gap should be followed by a straight up market but in fact it's followed as you can see by a trading market. That's the Nasdaq 100. You see the same thing in the Caspian next. You see Caspian next had a major decline, a major reversal and then a gap up right here and that gap into its recovery high date. So on a technical basis where you see a gap into recovery high unless it follows through a minute to the upside it's called exhaustive. The logical exhaustive is there are people out there who lost a lot of money and the people out there who luckily were not in the market and they didn't lose money. They're saying wow the Caspian down from nearly 44% let me get in and they get in a panic because they don't want to miss the move you see and that shows up in gaps. So that's another reason to think we're going to test the lows or that's the best case scenario where the gaps tell you going to test the lows. The worst case scenario is that this is just a first leg in a beer market and the market will be headed lower. I don't think that's the case at this point. I don't have evidence for that but of course that is that is the possibility. So anyway in summary the SAP made a nice low positive divergence. It's rallying with we're low on the S&P. We're going to look out this week see whether it's going to make a short term top. We showed the fact that the net selling inequities by retail people was greatest since 2022 which is a positive for the market especially if the conditions are bullish. The macro conditions are bullish. We showed that semi-times during the X had a major crash down 28.73% in the short period of time. It's a recovery rally but you see the gap you had a gap right here and you have a possible cyclotop so we're going to look out for the possibly short term top. but we're still long. That's what are in the same two, same situation, the panic low, big rally, a gap which looks exhausted because it didn't follow through to the upside and the same thing with the cosplay. Big crash, most likely the crash are going to lead to a three or four or five months, strong upside move, most likely. It's also quite likely, quite probable that it's going to test its load before that. But as an outside chain, this is the first leg up in the beer market. I have no evidence for that. I don't see anything but the economy. Other than speculation and stocks, I see nothing in the economy that suggests at this point is the reason to suspect that this is just one, a first leg down in the beer market. Unless we had it for a major recession, major economic dislocation, I see no reason to think this wasn't just a normal crash, which would be followed by a multi-month rally. That's the most logical scenario as I see it. But we're on the lookout. As I pointed out in '87, you had a similar crash, similar to the cosplay, Marky rally shopped it for a few days as the cosplay did. It started churning and made a low, low, I think it was December 4th. The lower closing low but not a lower interday low. I told my clients on the institutional side, if the cosplay tests the lows, it should make it quite possible make a new closing low but should not make a new interday low. It makes a new interday low. It's more likely that it was just a leg up in the beer market that will continue. But we see no economic evidence to suggest that a 48% to client should lead to even greater decline over the short term. Very little reason to what to believe that. So that's about it for my current view. I'm not in long a golden silver. I had been long, we got out and the mark I'd been rallying but the same story, since we're in a cyclical period, that rally may taper off this week at the mid, the golden, you know, long term we're still negative on gold to silver. We're thinking of a major multi-year high back in January based on the evidence we pointed at that time, which I may show you later on in since you forget the golden silver. So you like the fact that the S&P 500 held in well as the semiconductor index as the Korean stock market as the NASDAQ were declining. To you that's bullish for the S&P 500, let's talk about the eye of the storm, those three assets, the semi index, the NASDAQ and the Korea, which I would argue, you know, putting my fundamental hat on that are very similar to the same trade given that Korea is like 50% semiconductors or semiconductor adjacent and semiconductors, semiconductors and semiconductors and NASDAQ are dominated by semiconductor and tech. So it really is the AI tech hardware trade. Why for your institutional clients where you short, you know, in that June, you know, June to July 29th and why on that July 29th low, did you subsequently cover your shorts and then go long on on July 30th and tell us about that signal that you saw in terms of panic liquidation, which we now know was a hedge fund liquidating all of its public public longs and publicly traded holdings. Just tell us about that signal that you saw on July 29th July 30th July 29th and I know you want to go back, we will go back, but just it has to do with why we're short, so we really have to go back to our less conversation. Sure, sure, okay, okay. The short, where we spoke on February 5th, I showed you we have an indicator which doesn't always work, but when it works, it works very, very well. It's called a VXN deviation from trend indicator and basically tells you this panic bind in the VXN. VXN is a VX for the NASDAQ 100. It's called a VXN, okay. These signals occur when the sharp decline, sharp short-term decline in the VXN relative to a longer term average. Now it's when a longer term average is not to be, I promise it's not more than three weeks, okay. Not talking about the one-year average. Talking something like three days over over 14 days or four days over 17 days, something like that. Anyway, we got to sell it on December 11th, 2025. What happens in December 11th, 2025? I want to bring the NASDAQ 100 right here. Do you see this, this is my screen? The NDX back here, you see? NDX picked on October 29th, 2025, but really went nowhere for quite a number of months. NDX picked on right here on October 30th and by this date of January 28th, it was down 0.027 percent that it looks like. So it really, it went nowhere. Having said that, it got nowhere, we had a sales signal in December 11th for the market in general. So that was one of the background reasons we believe that the market should decline. In fact, looking at the Philadelphia semiconductor index, okay. Here's a semiconductor index, you see? Because everyone also did nothing for that period, basically, you see? They did nothing and we're on a sales signal. It's one of the reasons we're in negative, but more than that, you see this site, this little exhaustive gap, maybe I can make it a little bigger so you can see it. Yeah. You see, there were two gaps, two gaps in the row in the stocks index. We'll have semi-ducks right here into this peak. Remind us what a gap is, Milton. The gap is where the market opens up above the previous days, into day high and stays above it all day, which is very, very rare occurrence. It's certainly a very rare occurrence in the broad index. There's a market opens higher, opens higher than it's highest high of the prior day and holds it for the full day. So that's the positive gap. The negative gap is when it opens lower than the previous unit. We're going to pile up the gap, but it's an upside gap or a downside gap. It's a very often negative gap. It's a sign of panic buying. People don't care about price. They don't care that we're buying it. Buying an index at a price higher than a trade in the list, in the list day or less week or less months, which is the case here. They didn't care. And they bought it, you know, and basically a gap. This case was exhaustive. So you know, you never know if a gap is going to be exhaustive. A gap could even be what you call impulsive, headed to higher or exhaustive. When the gaps come after a long move, it's most likely to be exhaustive. When the gap comes after the client, upside gaps after the client, most likely to be impulsive. That's the rule, one of the rules. Now we have no we have no hard and fast rules. We watch the market each day and we determine based on another indicator whether it's likely this move is exhaustive or impulsive. Anyway, these gaps prove to be exhaustive. The sex did not manage to get basically higher than it did at the time of these gaps. And ultimately, the client's 16.64%. So the reason we were short really was things we spoke about last time, which was that we had a cell signal on the on the VIXVX indicator. This was a history of the declines for the successful signals. History of the declines were down 17 down 23 as you could see. In our instance, the the sucks to client some some 16% to its low in March. The SP declined some 8% of so to its low. So it wasn't the greatest signal. But the reality was that it was one of the reasons we were made short, combined with the with the truck parents, I showed you, combined the fact that exhaustive gaps, combined the fact that the market got lower for a while. So and then on March 30th, we'll get later, as you said, from March 31st to 3rd of April, we had at least 20 by signals which got us long. And as you know, it was a stark rally. Not necessarily stark rally. For the SP500, though, some people claimed it was. But certainly was a stark rally for the Philadelphia semiconductor index, gained over 100% or the S&P technology index was gained over 90%. So really was a stark rally. So this sharp decline we saw into the lows of into the lows of March 30th was a setup for the move we just had. And the question is, is that move over, is that part of a bull market that we'll discuss a little later on? Is what I showed you last time, I showed you the gap, you see this is a gap that's in January of the Russell. This is a chart I just copied it from our last interview. And I suggest this is bearish. Now, when did the rush go from there? The Russell ultimately went, this is the gap I showed you, you see. Yeah. I hope it's climbing to total 12.07%. So that gap proved successful, even though we spoke last time, what I was able to show you was, was a few days action, which was right here, you see. But ultimately that gap proved to be an exhaustive gap. And it was an aisle reversal as well. These are all technical terms. But the reality is, reason we were short was because the market gave the indications of a top. We did no idea what, and I said at the time, we have, it's quite positive. And any given day now, it's possible to market to make a major long term top. Everything that is necessary for the market to be at a long through top is basically in place. But with valuation, you have in many measures, you know, the so called baffling indicator of market capital GDP, which has been overvalued for a decade. But it's more valuable than ever in history. When you look at a very margin debt, for example, relative to cash balances, it's it's high in history. When you look at what interest rates are acting, it's a long bond, even the short rates are rallying. It's quite possible to market top right here. And we head for multi-year bear market. It's quite possible. But we're not projecting that. If it happens, it wouldn't surprise me. But you know, we're not fear-mongers. I'd rather market give me evidence that it's topping. And at that point, we'll decide to either go short or just get out of the market, get into treasure builds. But at this point, the market's making a new high on on on on on on on Friday, SAP, even though there are divergences, we want to see more more evidence that the market's topping that is strictly some divergences. As I said last time, I say it again. All these fear-mongers out there are correct. It's quite possible that the market peaks today and creations 50 to 80 percent over the next year. It's quite possible because the background is in place. However, the fact that the background is in place does not mean the bull market is ended because the nature of our expected bull market is as much as overvalued as it is. And as much evidence as the reason, the market's topping, it doesn't top until it tops. And that's the case now. I'm saying this because every time I turn bearish, in the back of my mind, they say, I don't know if it's going to be a correction or a bear market. I have no idea. We can We got bearish when we see a turning point signal at a top. And we got bullish when we see a turning point signal at a bottom. But when we see a top, especially in the current situation, we have no idea whether it's going to be just a corrective decline or a major bear market. Because the background is definitely in place. And I'm not going to argue for a major bear market. Now, one thing that's not in place is usually you don't get a major bear market until the Federal Reserve tightens and they haven't tightened yet. So we don't want to anticipate will the Fed tighten or not. But it's most likely that the Kevin Warsh will tighten and he most likely lose in quantitative tightening as well besides raising rates. But you don't have to anticipate it. Usually bear markets take place after the Fed moves. Bear markets anticipate the economy. I mean, stock markets anticipate the economy, but they don't anticipate the Federal Reserve moves. They wait for the Federal Reserve to make a move before the markets turn. So therefore, for that reason, it's likely the market has not really picked yet. At least the SPF 100, the high-resort on Friday. It's likely not the final peak, but it's possible that it is. So I don't know if you answered your question about what we're seeing now. So look at me show you this. It's Caspi. The Caspi had an exhaustive downside gap two days before the low. On July 29th, yeah. Yeah, two days before July 49th had this. We were told a client to expect one more day of panic. We had one more day of panic and that's where we got long. Because usually you don't see one day of panic. Usually it's two days of panic into a crash low. That's what we saw. The type of low you saw when you have this major liquidation, major margin liquidation, you have people in the United States who weren't necessarily liquidated on the margin. But selling because of what's happening in Korea, that's really a reason to go count to the market and to go long. And we really waited for the evidence at the low. Side of the Montgomery date, we saw the reversal. We went long on the reversal. So that's not a lot of sophisticated analysis here. Strictly market watching, analyzing markets and keep going top. This is a very important line. I didn't mention. This line across right here, little dotted red line. This is the SB500. SB500 broke to a new all time high. This is the line. This is the previous all time high. This is the breakout, but it broke out on the gap, you see. Usually when you break out on the gaps in a pulse of gap, usually it's a sign that marks it much higher. Usually. And I'm going to give it right now. I say we're 50% low in the S&P. We're giving it the benefit of doubt. This is going to be a pulse of gap. But let's see what happens over the next few days where you have this. Montgomery date, that is 30.8. But we're staying long to the evidence. The things that change it. But this is a very bullish pattern. This is a very bullish pattern where the market spends a couple of months below all time high. And then when it breaks to the right, it breaks in an upside gap, which means there's a lot of underlying buying pressure. Most likely that is bullish. I'd say 80% of the time it follows through to an upside market. So that's based on chart patterns alone. Why we're bullish here. Why are we bullish currently? It's also based on data and I have to get to the data a little later. But this is what we see at the moment. And melted it. One thing you've said to me is that everyone wants technical analyst market technicians to call market tops, but actually it's far easier to call market bottoms. So even though you happened that you made a bear call when we did our interview in early February, and that happened to be right on the Russell S&P. Congratulations. But you actually have less confidence in bearish signals than you do in bullish signals. And actually, I think some of your, you've had some incredible calls over the interviews that I've had with you over the past four years. But I think some of them have been right after market panics on the bullish side. And that is kind of where we're positioned right now. Right. This is a story. The reason most technicians and most analysts are always trying to call a top, because they're worried about a top. And most investors are long the market. Let's face it, 99% of investment is long the market. They're lucky to see one or two percent short interest in the broad market. So throughout the world, the trillion dollar, the S&P for 100, people are invested long. But the fact they invested long, they're worried. Now worry the market's going to rally. Well, they're worried about it. The market might decline. Now, they're really not worried about a minor decline of 5, 10 or 15%. They're really worried about it crash, 50, 60, 70, 40%. Right. That's what they're worried about. And therefore, technicians and market analysts, well, it's worried about that. And I say, I've learned over the years, I've been a business, you know, more yet than I can count. Do now, it's not necessary to anticipate a bear market. Wait till the market declines 4% or 5% or 6% or 8% or 9% and get out then in anticipation of the market, make it down another 30%. You don't have to call the exact top. And now you don't have to call the exact top. It's very difficult to call the exact top because the nature of market tops are that they're generally the rolling tops, they're generally rolling tops. You're wondering if it makes a high one month and another makes a high another month. And it's very difficult to call. I've never found a technician who's been successful in quality market tops consistently. And I found a technician who's been successful in quality market bottom six six consistently, at least based on his data. And that's myself because he's modeled every market low since 1957. And we have thousands of, I can show it to the later, we have thousands. You can give me any date and I'll tell you what you know, show your model for that date. We've modeled every market low. So I found for myself as much easier to call a market low, you don't have to call every market top. If you get it, if you get it in it the lows and get out, 89% of the peak you're going to do fine. Mark stock markets don't make sharp sharp tops. They make rounding tops, but your commodities make sharp top. Yes, commodities make one of the reasons commodities make sharp tops is, because unlike the stock market, commodities trade in the futures market. They don't trade in a real exchange. For every short there's a long, very long there's a short. Anytime you see a market rallying, anytime you see commodity market rallying, you know, there's a lot of shorts on the other side of that trade. And those shorts are going to panic into a top and cause a spike top. And the stock market is the other way. People don't really panic when the market's rallying. The shorts may panic, but you don't see the not enough shorts to cause up the market to initial panic evidence at the top. And then at the bottom where trillion to dollars are long the market, that's when people fail to have to sell, even though they're talking about their advisors. That over the long term market story is rally, which is not really true, but they told them low term up so Israeli people, people still panic when they, their portfolios down 20% to 30% or 40% or 50% depending on the person's constitution. So therefore you see panic lows in the stock market. You don't see panic. Now we see panic tops because we're looking at very subtle information. We're looking at the example exhaustive gaps to take place at the top or we're looking or we look for, you know, negative divergences, which are very, very subtle, which most people can't see. At market bottoms though, the evidence is not so subtle. It's really blatant obvious that people ignore it because they're afraid the market is going low. Cospies are perfect example. Cospies down 43% or 45% is 87%. Cospies down 40% or 93% in 27 days. And now when we're afraid it's going to go lower, you know, I mean, you should have been afraid it's going to lower at the top. Now they're afraid it's going to go lower and be afraid to get in. I say to myself, evidence is that it's bottom. Let's get in. It's going to make a test of the low. Maybe we'll, we'll, we'll sit through the test. Most likely we've got to really advise get it to test. And if it's, the unlike a scenario that's going to immediately go down and make, you know, without a doubt 50, 60, 70% will be out because we'll, once we, once they, into the low is violating, we know that we're wrong and we'll be out. But people always worry about the client's after the client. I remember the crash made in '77. I was involved in the market. Great. I worked at Oppenheimer at the time. In '67, we call, I call the crash very well. We, I managed to, I'm going to fund the way into 90% cash before the top. Very good. There's another story. But I remember at the bottom, all my portfolio management, the group who were bullish at the top, who bearish at the bottom, they're afraid to buy. I said, buy, buy, buy. Now they're time to buy. But that's just nature of this, of this business. So yes, markets, stock markets make V-bottoms, spike bottoms. They make round the tops, you see. But commodities are differently. Even this is, even the cost beats around the top. They have a top here and a top here. Not much of a difference, you see. Well, let's look at the Nathick 100's, the latest top, you see. A peak here, a slight low peak here, you see. But the bottom end, at the end, most generally the V, something you tested and come off of another V. Same thing, you're like the same story. You had a double island reversal. Very, very rare. I've never seen it before, actually, a double island. This is the June top. I pointed out to my clients, they were, I had a reversal right here in early, it made June and then in late June, a double island reversal. If an island versus it gaps up, then the market gaps down and creates two spaces, which creates an island. Island versus an island versus here. This is also, you know, it's not a V top. This is really a rounding top, as you can see. The bottom looked more like a V bottom. We'll see whether I can continue to see upside today. Right now, what is semi-conduct is actually made a new, made a new high on Friday. I think, see if we can do this. Generated, new into day high on Friday. Another slightly higher into day high today, but now it's down to the day. But so it's doing fine. You know, this gap might prove to be impossible. See what happens. Okay. That's the current market. I'd like to tell you why really, why I'm bullish. And that's strictly because of the cycle lows and the action we've seen or fall lows. That's not the main reason I'm bullish. There are more important reasons than I'm bullish. So you have to go, we have to go back in time. March. March to April. We have to go back to April, really. Right. Go back to April and. We got the buy signals. I counted actually, I think you got over, you got at least 34 buy signals in late March early April. And they had median projections on the Edison P500 from 8200 to over 10,000 on the S and P. So sorry, sorry to steal your thunder. No, no, no, I can't steal the thunder because without evidence, without showing the data, anyone, you know, we are, many people get up there, even on your show. And they project, you know, world's right to $500 of civil is going to $2,000 but not really evidence. It's just fantasy. It's just fantasy. It's just a dream. It's a fantastic dream people have without evidence. So at least every time you make a projection it's based on evidence. We don't trade based on projections, but everything we do is really based on evidence. And let me get to that right now. So we're going to get to the really wide-rebole. We got a buy signal on March 31st, which I ignored at the time. I'll tell you why in a minute. Then we got a signal on April 10th, April 13th, April 4th. We got multiple signals. April 14th, April 15th, April 16th, April 17th, April 20th, 22nd, and 27th. Let's take one there the time. It won't be complicated just to show you what we saw. This signal was ignored because it only happened once before in history. And I don't use signals. It only happened once before. Even though it was a clear, oversold market on March 31st. What happened at the time? It's before it was down for five weeks in a row. And these are not calendar weeks. These weeks we break up the market into five day segments. Each segment is called a week. So the SP 400 was down five days in a row. Where is 2000 was down five weeks in a row? SP 500 was down five weeks in a row. And then, and the OEX was up 3% for the day. No, it's right. What's the OEX? The SP 100 index. The big one. One of the largest stocks in the SP was up 3% on that day. This is March 31st. This is March 31st. The SMP made a four day high, one day passed the four day low, which is also rear occurrence. Russell of 3% of the day, March 31st. Nazar, we have 300% of the day. SP 400 of 200% of the day. SP 200 was up-- if 500 was up 2, 3% of the day. SP advances over the clients was greater than the 401. SP 400, the midcaps, advanced over the clients greater than the 401. SP 600 and advanced clients, greater than 401. Unfortunately, it only happened once in history. At a major, major market low, which is right here at the COVID low, let me show it to you. It only took place once before the COVID low. To have all these things happen at the same time. All these markets on five days, five weeks in a row, and one day passed that low. All these markets are 3% or so on a strong idea line. We couldn't use it indicator, but that exact same thing happened right here at March 31st, 2026. Yeah, so Milton, I mean, so you have people who do sports betting or familiar with the term parlay of, oh, I expect a to happen, an b to happen, an c to happen. You kind of have this 11 or 12 thing signals where all of these things were triggered at the same time. And, but this thing has only happened once, and it was on March 24th, 2020, which was-- One day after the COVID low. One day after the low-- I mean, Milton, if I know, if I get a call and it's you and you say, Jack, I've got a 12 leg signal, it's only been triggered once, and it's been triggered on March 24th, 2020. Are you buying? Are you selling? Are you holding? I'm saying I'm buying. I'm buying. I know what. I have the discipline that I don't trade on the signal and only signal once. Even though logically you are right, and I always tell my clients, this is illogical, but it just protects me. In this case, of course, it means it's bad. We did a lose 8%, we got in-- we didn't get a conventional bicycle until April 10th, which is eight days off the low. This signal took place one day after the low. So I'm being admitting my errors, calling an error, but in the future, if it happens again, it will be a bicycle now going into my model. Since it happened twice. But the point is this projects to 85.42 as a medium projection within a year of the signal, which is another 10.42% above current levels. Let me get to the next one. Wait, Milton, sorry, but I have it as it protects to 10,000, 10,000, 600. Yeah, you're right. Let me tell you why I'm doing this. And I used to good question. I didn't think I thought I'd get a buy-you. You didn't see the point. Yeah, once before, there's no median, you see? I said, one before, and let me get you the numbers. Boy, oh boy, here it is. Yeah, the March 24th. Once before, the market gained 62.39% within a year. However, within 60 days in a signal, the SB gained 16%, which is exactly 1/2 of one again after the 220 low, 2020 low. So I cut the projection in half to make it fair, because I couldn't use the 62.39% here. So technically, Milton, you had a signal that was ridiculously bullish on a sample size of 1 to be fair, but ridiculously bullish. And you made the non-systematic discretionary decision to say, actually, I'm going to tone it down. I'm going to tone the bullish. I did it based on data. I did it based 60s after the signal. It had a great move of 16%. That's phenomenal. But a half of what took place in 2020. So I, it would have been a little conservative, I'm using a derivative. Half of projection. That's only the only case. Every other incident, more than one signal. Here's the next signal. This is on. This signal takes place on April 10th. This is what got our client long. We got a long base in this signal. So in this case, very simple, reasonable, easy signal. Nasdaq 100 declined at least 12% and held it low for eight days. So we're eight days pressed the low. During those eight days, the Nasdaq Composers up in each of those days, 808 days. Two simple indicators. Nasdaq declined 12% and holds it low for eight days. Nasdaq 100. And Nasdaq Composers was up 808 days. Very simple indicator yet. It only happens three times in the past. And that projects the minimum would be 7942.59, which is only 2.38% above card. That's the actual minimum return. It's not the medium of the minimum return. It's the actual minimum return in history. The median of the maximum return takes up to 89, 53, another 15% gain above Friday's close. Let me show you a little bit about this. This signal on top 18, 1985. September 14th, 1988. August 19th, 2024, and April 10th, 2026. And I show that we're in line. You see, this is like gray line. We're in line with this dark or returns. So there's no reason to doubt those signals. You see, the little gray lines where we are now. So since we're in line with what happened in the past, no reason to doubt that we're not continues. That's another reason why we're bullish. Not just, of course, what happened now in July. You see, the way we understand markets is, markets make great bottoms, and market make great tops. What takes place in between is generally random. It's very difficult to analyze the market on a day-to-day basis. It's good to market. We analyze markets, except for your well-turning points. Once you get to turning points, you know, the market trend is high for half a year or a year or so on the pay-on-history. So anyway, we're still in line. And as I say, the median return is 31.35%. And we're ready. And that project, as I said, to 89,53,99, or up 15% from here. That's on April 10th. Then we got another signal, as they said, on April 13th. Another pretty simple signal, and that is, as it was 90% off the low, as it'd be at least 9% and hell is low for nine days. SP500 generated new 30-day high, which is quite interesting, that after eight 9% decline, nine days later to have a new 30-day high. NASDAQ had its greatest 10-day rate of change in 180 days, and the SP500's 10-day rate of change was above 8%. These four currencies happened four times in the past. And the minimum gain, you ever saw, would take you to 8283, which is another 6.25%. The median of all of the maximum gain is, then again, it takes another 12.27%. So this is another reason why we're bullish. Not necessarily bullish, because what happened at the bottom of July, we're bullish, because of the bottom of the place in March, and by signals in April. And going through this, as you will see again, this is the 82, 84, 98 signal, the current signal, but the most important thing we're in line with the previous signals, the market is not out of sync with what had taken place previously. So our subjeeze, since it's in sync, will probably, you should get close to the median or at least to the minimum. The minimum return is here, and that's another signal. That's in April 13th. That's not the last signal. Then we get another signal in April, in April 4th. Then we've got many signals. Let me show you one free-gate. As you know, we've got it with 30 signals. This is another signal took place in April 40th, which is 9 days after law. Russell is up 8 and less 9 days. Russell 2000's 10-day rated change is the greatest in 1,260 days, which I think is five years. So the Russell 2000 off the March low had his greatest 10-day gain in five years. Isn't that fascinating? - Wow. - Even greater than what you saw off the April 2025 low. Even greater than what took place off the COVID low. Pretty fascinating, right? So it's not only the socks that had a record-breaking run off the lows, gaining 100% off the March lows. On a 10-day basis, the Russell had his greatest gain in five years off the lows of March 30th. And the SAP also had its greatest 10-day rated change in five years. Not just the Ross, even the S-200. This is a great momentum. So this took place four times in a past. And this project to a minimum gain, will take it to 88, 26, 28, which is another 13% off Friday's lows. And the meeting takes you up another 18%. Now should we doubt this? Let's see where we stand today. Looking at the history right here. We're right in line. We actually were below it, but now we're back in line, you see. So in effect, if you already asked me if it's at the July low, you say, well, this signal is no longer working. But now this search took us back in line with historical returns. So I have to give it a benefit of doubt. The signal works four times in a past. It's an amazing signal, an amazing momentum. Now, there's an logical argument that it can be made that this is a full signal. Logical argument, and I don't believe in this logical argument, but people will make this argument is, when the market surges like this, it's the side of an unhealthy market. If the market gains more than it's gaining a five years, why is that healthy? That's not healthy. That means everyone's buying stocks. My answer is first the data teller is going higher. In the past, we never happen. And secondly, if everyone's buying stocks, that is a very bullish phenomenon. It's not a bearish phenomenon. Unless you see evidence of the top, and we don't see evidence of the top, especially now that you have zero time. That's the signal to place in April April April 14th and a median gain historic is been 32.08%. Okay now let's go to the next signalistic place on April 15th. Okay one of the many signals this doesn't this is a cryptic I don't give you the exact formula but we're looking at and net davis research has a multi cap equal dollar weighted index okay it's it's big cap small cap submit cap all in one index but the equal weighted they're not cap weighted okay and what you do is you're looking for deviation of trends thrust you're looking for amount of give it a day is let's say 10 days over 30 days okay in this case it was 2.3 times above the 10 day gain was 2.3 times above the 30 day gain in theory right that's a by thrust so that's took place 11 days after the S/B decline at least 9% okay it's simple you see a deviation from trend upside thrust 11 days after a S/B decline 9% okay simple indicator and again this projects for minima 84.94 minimum a median with 97.67 which tells me to be bullish I mean the history again is you see that you see the here and after major bear market but here wasn't after major bear market this is always a 94 it was a 15% decline in Azdaq wasn't a major bear market at all now we declined some 11.12% and it's sort of in 98 we sort of 2009 and we just see it here see right off these walls market is gains off that and and and we're in line we're in line with the with the history because even this instance again 17% we're above see so it's still in line it's a good signal that's another reason we have to remain bearish at this time bullish bullish until we see evidence to change now that then we get a number of single April 16 April 16 it was 12 days after the law and 12 days after law the S&P gain 10% above its last 10% decline so what is 12 days after the client 9% the S/B is up 10% very simply see people are looking for very complicated indicators and we I say we bottom we've modeled every market bottoms since 1957 and we found you don't have to be a genius you don't have to actually you just have to be logical conservative and find simple indications that take place at 30 points and that gives you an edge you know we call our retail product mb edge and you'll forget it gives us the edge so let's see what this told us this basically tells us believe to get tonight 7970 which is only 204% above or another 17% and and the let's so Milton in this only this two-part indicator of the S&P declined 9% and it bottomed for for 12 days and then it it 10% over its last low gain 10% over if it's last low those are like two principles I see it play number one it was in a bear market right and the low held and then from that low there was over very more action to the bull so this idea that a market hell is a low for 12 days is very significant it seems very simple we in on the bill the whole business when he calls confirmation days you know he counts 47 days off a low and we built on that you know we don't look we don't look at four days we built indicates using one day two day three day four day five day you know up to up to up to 25 days of loans see what because we're looking for 30 points you see so it's it's a key for the market hell is low for 12 days and the market gave 10% into a new high into a new recovery right into this date and looking at history not in just just we're way in line you see we're basically in line with historical so why should I doubt the idea that these signals remain valid follow so till next one this don't this single this took place on April 20th okay VIX was down eight out of nine days number one which is means basically means the market was reality but VIX was down eight of nine days the Russell the rate of change of the 10th grade of change of the of the NASA was above 10% and again that same multi-cap deviation from trend thrust was 2.3 times great you know the short term was 2.3 times greater but the longer term which is a thrust the two place four times in the past this projects the minimum of 8600 and a medium of 9400 you know they don't have bore anybody but these are like I'm just trying to point out what we do is not based on moving averages while doing not based on anticipating where the price of oil is going to go or doing not anticipating whether the federal tighten whether they want tighten we're not that you know we don't look at the thing that one else looks at we look at data market based data and I'm an economist as well I know very much about the kind of analyze monetary policy but that's not what we trade based on that just in the background of my head I want to feel good about my views in the market but really we look at the data and in this particular instance as you'll see again we're we're in line we again we're out we weren't in line going back until the June peak but now we're back in line with history and all of soon that's going to continue this the next signal took place this signal is on April 22nd this only occurred twice in the past the Russell is an amazing okay I don't look at look at moving average with crossing the Russell 2000 traded above its Friday moving average for 16 days in a row okay now interesting wow the market only bought 16 days ago which means at the day of the low the Russell was above its Friday moving average which is kind of fascinating and the day of the SAP low the Russell was above its Friday moving average anyway the point is that Russell was above its Friday moving average 16 days in a row and the NASDAQ declined at least 13% and held its low for 16 days get two simple things together projects to a minimum 8543 or medium 9299 and let's look at history history right here it took place in September 7th 82 March 7th 2016 after just a minor corrective low and right now April 22nd 2026 and we're in line you see we're in line with the history so it's another bullshin decay now of course the further way you get from a from a from a low the fewer signals we get but I wouldn't say the not as reliable you know you're not going to get a 10 day upside thrust three days after a low but you're going to get a 10 day upside thrust nine 10 or 11 days after a low so some signals by definition can't signal at a low you have to have the market trade for one two or three weeks after the low until you get the buy signal at any event this is a a single on April 27th less signal we got nas 19 days after the naziqs declined the nasa was up 16 of 19 days okay two interesting indicators nasaq made a decline of 10% held it for 19 days during those 19 days the nasaq gained in 16 of those 19 days at least this took place three tongues in the past let's see when they took place let's see what happened it occurred right here this is this is very good because very similar to our market I say similar to our market because you did not have a major major bear it wouldn't come after major bear mark came after minor correction you see right here and over 4th 1985 okay went straight up then you saw October 30th 1980 also you have to minor correction raise similar to our case you see right here and you saw it again the 22nd 2023 after also after minor corrections this is a very very similar to our situation and you saw it right here after minor correction you see and in this case we're out of line with the history unfortunately you see in this this late signal April 27th we're not in line so if this is if all a signal would show this I'd say they're not working but since the bulk the vast majority of the of the signals the market is acting properly after the vast majority of the signals we've seen that that keeps us bullish that's really and for the most and most of these signals have very few false signals would that be correct no in this instance none of the signals have false signals exactly that's okay yeah that's my point that's not the signal let me you bring up very good point okay you know I get it took me 10 years to create these models okay and I couldn't manage my during the period because I can't manage money and spend time doing research at the same time it's impossible that's why the great hedge fund managers hire people to do research for them because they can't do both even though like Alexander Rockham Mill is great doing research but he has to have people doing research for him because he's busy trading markets follow so anyway your question is good when I built my models I was very tolerant you know if 80% of the time the market did well it was good enough for me but I have to go through so many indicators I had thousands of indicators I was able to call them and limit all signals that didn't work perfectly so I'd say more than 95% of my signals that I use are perfect signals with no real no real drawdowns where you know what we're down there's a caveat to that and this is a very important caveat because let's see I'm going to give you go back to a previous chart to show you what I mean okay let me show you here see 1988 1987 October 1987 right you got we got by seems over 90 to 20th the market declined 12% back to its test of the low but it held the original low the signal is telling you that that was a turning point the signal is not necessarily going to tell you that the market won't pull back to test the low so some instances we consider their valid signal even though the market pulls back because it held the low and all the signals telling you is that's it up 30 point and that's the good time it's a good time to be low on the market now we've adjusted to that I don't I don't make a complicated for institutional clients we have we we've made a little more sophisticated and we would get out after x percent decline and then get back in at a low but for the retail clients if you got in in October 1987 we we basically ride it unless unless you know I don't make it too complicated but We're turning point analysis. If the turning point is there, the fluctuations post and turning point don't really matter so much. But most signals don't work this way. Most of the signals, as you will see, are a perfect signal. Let me go back to where we just looked at. Anyway, this is the combination of all my signals. Not just the ones I showed you. These are all the signals starting in March 24th through April 27th. The median. And annual. Go ahead, go ahead. April 27th, the minimum expected return is to take it to 82, 86, 21, and the S&P, which is another 6.82%. The median of the maximum returns would take up another 15.49% to 895, 8.23%. Let's look at all our signals. So, most of. I remember in 2023, the spring, we did an interview and you literally said, "Bullish, bullish, bullish." And you said, "I challenged the bears." And obviously that bull call turned out to be. That signal took that to place after October. 20,000. Yep, yep. So, Milton, what is your level of confidence right now relative to your level of confidence when we did that interview when you said, "I challenged the bears." Are you able or willing to say, "I challenged the bears today?" No, I would say the following. I would say the following. It's totally. the confidence is not the same because that came after a major beer market. This has come from mind and correction. So, this is more of a trading signal because if the market. As I said, if the market. in October 22nd, in 2022, I would say there's no way the market's on a crash from here impossible. When I looked at what I call my technical indicators, there was too many bullish indicators to tell you that the market should make a top here. And we hadn't been at it. We were coming to a flow. Now, we're at an all-time high in the SP500 with major divergences. I'm not arguing. It made the divergences versus some other broad indexes. So, maybe you only get to the minimum, which is another 6.82%. It's different than it was then. If somebody has to wear a B position, the answer to the position long now, not sure if not out of the market because you just had a correction. Was it 8/9/10% in the NASDAQ? 8% in the S&P and we got buy singles. We got to be long. But for me to say, it's going to less for a couple of years into a major bull move. I can't say that at the point, but the way to be positioned clearly is to be positioned long. No question about it. I'm going to get to how we deal with our mechanical models a little bit later. I just want to tell you what, for our institutional clients, we're short into the March 30 loans. We got. excuse me, into the June July 29th loan. We were long. 100% long. We're not leveraged long and we're watching you see whether the market's possibly going to set a short term top this week. Of course, we have a reason to think that there may be some other gaps that may have been exhaustive and maybe we'll at least test the lows. So, an outside chance will break the lows, but that's a very really an outside chance we break the lows. I have to say, there's still a possibility. I mean, maybe there's something out there that we don't recognize. You see, now, just to point to note, we made a new all-time high on Friday in the S&P, but only 21 stocks generated an all-time high that day. We should sort of lower under the range of when the S&P had an all-time high. I think it's so 16 new highs on March 24th 2000. I think it was much. it was much 10th 2000, the day the peak, and before that combo will peak. Then you saw 16 new highs in the S&P, and now you saw 21 new highs. It was a very low reading on a day at the S&P's at a new all-time high, especially when the S&P. The S&P's are more unweighted indexed, just made an all-time high a couple of days earlier. Let me show you this chart. This is pretty fast. This is the S&P 500 Ecoweight Index. You'll notice this is in bottom, this is in bottom, I'd say, July 29th. It's bottom, July 23rd made a new all-time. let me see. It made no all-time, interday high on August 5th. This hadn't been in no correction. It really was basically straight up since the March lows. That's a very pile of development, but you'd think it's more in new all-time highs than the S&P. If the S&P 1500. excuse me, because I'm sorry, the S&P unweighted index is at a new all-time high. You'd think it's more than 20 new highs as the S&P is making a new high. Let me just check the closing basis. It's at a new all-time high right now, August 10th. If the S&P equal weighting will close right now, it'd be at a new all-time high. Milton, I got a question for you. You saw things to make you bullish about the July 29th low. You haven't seen a lot of buy signals, like firm buy signals, and you said that you don't see evidence of their action is breakaway. So what precisely are you waiting to see before you'll see these buy signals? If you see them, which I'm not seeing. Theoretically, we don't need any new buy signals, because the buy signals that are generated in April project out to a year, where the historical projections go. So the only thing you buy signals, and we'd say what we saw in the July 29th, "Whoa, it's just a minor correction. Let's play a phase." The S&P only declined 40% and it bottomed in June. It didn't bottom in July, so it's just a minor correction, which is a random event. The fact that we have all these signals in April is enough of a reason to be bullish here. However, with the fact that the leading index, which was the NASDAQ, and the X100, NASDAQ 100, as well as the 70th, the fact that they really declined sharply, here's this reason to be a little bit cautious, maybe something's different this time. But again, I don't want to be forced into a bearish posture. I'm not sure. The likely scenario was bullish. I don't need any new buy signals. The action or for lows in July was very, very strong, but the thing is lacking. The first is the verigences, and when I tested the history of these signals, they're not necessarily bullish. I tested what took place in July to lows based on history, and they don't necessarily give you a buy signal. Tell me about that. Tell me about that. Well, I try to show you. Is this when you said that it's an action that looked like May 2000 or something? Here, let me show you this one. This took place on August 5, 2026. This is a recent signal. It's not in my model. You'll see why in a minute. But it's a recent signal placed on August 5th. Okay? What happened is, the NASDAQ's 5-day gain was its greatest in a year. Early we talked about 10-day gains, right? Both the watch low was the 10-day gains with the greatest in two years. This is the NASDAQ's 5-day gain was greatest in 1 year and into August 5th. The S/V 5-day gain was the greatest in 1 year and to August 5th. And the X-day in over 8% over 5-day period. And if you live with something like that, it gained 14% over 5 days. You see? Let's see the history. It's signaled on November 2nd, '87. It was out of corrective. It was out of race and rally high. The market, the SP client, the client 12% to test the law. You see? That's not a reason. So maybe long-term is bullish, but no reason we'll pull back. It's signaled on May 2nd, 1997. It's very similar to us. This is the case with very similar to our situation. Let me show you. This situation here was just after a minor correction in the S&P. The similar to what we had now. So that instance is very similar to what we saw now. In this case, the market gained 20% in 109 days. This is a double signal, second in May 5th, '97. August 15th, 1998. October, again, a major, both signal, but here. In the signal in 2008, during the financial crisis, the SP declined another 24%. So again, telling you that we called all the signals that are imperfect, in one of the signals we teleclined to buy based on. But we put in our. That signal happened during one of the biggest bear markets and financial crisis in history, which clearly we're not in now. I mean, it could start tomorrow, of course. But. What? What? Clearly we're not in it now, but if you read the headlines, and you read it, other people are saying not me. They're talking about a major crisis in private credit, which is still underlying, you know, so people aren't aware of it yet, or even banks aren't aware of it yet. But it's quite possible that maybe financial crisis. I mean, I'm not going to predict it. I don't think it's happening. But you know, we're not in a situation now where you can say, there's no financial crisis developing. We haven't liquefied our economy. Now, after a great depression, after a great recession, you could say, it's highly unlikely that there will be another financial crisis taking place, but everything has been liquefied. But now, the reality is, besides margin, then the stock market, is margin all over the place. I mean, look at how many commercial real estate buildings are being held up, you know, just on margin, on debt, with no real equity, you see? So, I don't want to. But what I say is the following. And I not. Had I not done my work and tracked every market balance is 957, I would not have known that on November, November, 2020, 2008, the same bullish stuff took place yet, the market that I'm not 24%, you see? Now that I know it, and now that I know I'm perfect singles, I would not act in a single line. I said it to my clients, it's a report in the center, it's a bullish five day factors. I said to them, no, six, I said to my clients, but despite the generally-favorable historical record of these combined indicators, we do not view this as a high-probability-tradable signal. See, we were long, but I can't forget this, a high-probability signal, I just can't. Because a high-probability signal will show much better returns in this one. Even though, even though the median return after the signal in the past was 37% within a year. I got you. But you had pullbacks of 24% and 12% to it. So you could take it as a bull's signal and say, "Milton's out of his mind." No, I know. But I'm not- I don't know. You're out of your mind. Milton, Milton, have you had any signals? Milton, have you had any cell signals since the cell signals you had in December that we talked about last time you were on? Yeah, yeah. We had these signals that we had the signs of a top in June, which ultimately proved to be top in the same detector index and the Nasdaq 100% and that's that, but it didn't affect, it didn't really affect the world market at the S&P. But we saw here, we showed you these, we saw there were cycle highs, there were also the diversions, there were exhaustion gaps into the highs, there were socks and had a double ion reversal into the tie. So we saw that, but the buy signal, the oversold panic selling, it's right 29th, or set that at least for the short term, you know, maybe in the intermediate term, especially considering we have buy seals in April, that still in effect, I can't really pound the table and say you think, and again, if someone's gonna tell me that the market is gonna crash in the next few months, I would say it's, I can't prove him wrong. I say, give me the evidence, but I can't prove him wrong. I say, it's too early, I would have the evidence, the evidence will come later on, it's going to happen. But at this point, I'd say anything is possible, anything on the negative side is possible. We're totally overlavering the economy, the next move for the Fed is going to be tightening. You already see this, the two year bond is tightening, it's, you know, rates are multi-high, you're seeing the 30, the 30 bond at the highest level in also one of the decades, I think. So you're seeing, and you're seeing, as you know, a private credit is really collapsing in a way. I mean, this is just a secret, banks aren't talking about it, but it seemed out of this. - Well, to tell you, I'm private credit, I think that the peak of the private credit doom narrative so far was probably in January or February. A lot of private credit firms have reported that they're second quarter, and it's actually a little bit of an improvement. I'm not, you know, I'm not saying that that's super predictive, but Milton, talking about about the Fed, the two year rate did tighten, be pricing in higher, more interest rate, hikes from the Fed because the price of oil went up, and now we have this new Fed share who could be hawkish and he says it's going to tame inflation. But my read is actually, he's not that hawkish, and I think the long end of the bond yield, the 30 year, the 10 year is kind of sniffing that out. What's your case there on the Fed? - Well, first of all, I would, I don't know if the fine hawkish or not, I think in order to get inflation down, you're gonna have to reign in the money supply and raise rates somewhat. So I think he's going to be forced to raise rates, but it's hawkish or not. I don't know, I think he'll be forced to raise rates. - That's okay. - He'll be forced to do quantitative tightening because he's a man of interest. - Yes. - He really is a inflation. Oil inflation has zero correlation. It's a big mistake to suggest that oil price of any new inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. If oil prices go up and there's no money to cover it, there's going to have to be a decreased prices and other other things people buy, just the way it is. If I have $100 in my pocket and I have to spend, I usually spend $20,000 in oil and I'm spending $60 in oil. I will have to spend less than other things. So it's just a fourth thing to suggest that oil prices have been a new inflation. It's really a monetary policy. That has to be inflation. - You're talking about long term inflation. So you basically say inflation is not PCE or CPI what the Fed measures or what the BLS measures. So okay, we can move on. But just want to move on. - Yeah, let's move on to that. If everything else be equal, if an oil shock course is a price we're all to go up, something else will have to go down. Or maybe that's not inflationary at all. Maybe what goes down is the economy or rather, or rage is something, but unless you accommodate higher prices, always higher price and non-inflation. Okay, this is all theoretical thing, but to me it seems pretty clear, you could argue. At least it's very little to do with picking stocks. So that's fine. Anyway, okay, now here's what I talked about. We spoke about this version. We spoke about this, it was my report in August 7th. Okay, let's get to the next thing. 'Cause I want to show you that it's pretty fascinating. Okay? You're pretty much crumb at everything that's relevant to the current market, right? - In stocks, yeah. In stocks, okay. - So Milton, a lot of these very advanced signals we're talking about, obviously that's the work you do for your institutional clients. You have a retail product, Milton Berg Edge, that is far, far more simple. Tell us about that model, as well as the results that you've kind of seen and the philosophy behind it. - Yes, okay, this is a story. As I said, I've been in the market for quite a number of years, you know, 50 years or so, more. I spent my time, initially I was a pure fundamentalist, I was a great man, but eventually I spent my time trying to analyze markets, build models on markets. And I realized that it's almost impossible to call a precise top. But we're very, very good in calling precise bottoms, or near precise bottoms, okay, within days of a market low. So this slide illustrates, if someone had $10,000 to invest, a March 21st, 1957, and he invested in the marketing, he never got out of the top. He waited for the market to client 8% to negative out. And then waited for a buy-sale for my models. That $10,000 would have grown to $1 billion, $152 million, $76,996,13. 18.4% per annum, this is including the reinvesting of dividends. Why? Because we're very, very good in picking market bottoms, but we really could not model market tops. We try to market market top, we're gonna miss, we're gonna get out of the market one day, the market's gonna rally another 50% because it's almost impossible to consistently pick market tops. So, what we decided is to create for retail investors, a system where they invested the SP500 on a total term basis either despite the rules with the getting dividends. And they hold on to it until the market declined, some 8% of the soul, which is something we talk about. And then they only get it when we get a buy-sale. And this would have grown to $1 billion, $1 billion, $1.52 million over the period, 18.4% per annum, which actually, out to form his most hedge funds, and most great investors over the period. Now, drastically. - Yeah, drastically. This shows the history of all the buys and all the sales. Basically, shows you 18.4% per annum, the longest SP trades, 91% were profitable. And the, of course, table trades are 100% profitable. Would you get out of the SP, get it to tables? And 81% of the time you're in the market and about the 19, for 90% of the time you're in tables over the long term period. Now, what is this showing? This shows the actual gains, you know, actual gains portrayed. And I want to show you here, this shows the yearly year of year returns, based on this model. And I highlighted the years that we were down. So for example, in 1973, the model lost 0.21%, but the SP was down 40.85%. You see? In 1994, the model lost 0.88%, but the SP was up 1.23%, pretty much matched the S&P. In 2019, and yet 2000, we're down 5.57, SP.9%, 2008, we're down 1.35%, SP.36.99%. That's on the down years. So basically, what I'm most pointing out is that on the year of year basis, it is very little volatility, very little volatility. And if you look where the SP was down, it's not a story. Like for example, let's say, right here, SP down 11% in 2001, we're up 19.93%. You see? We're down 26% in 1974, and we're up 20.10%. So it's basically, so a lot of some of these programs are like, oh, we'll increase your sharp ratio. And so in terms of return, your returns are lower, but our volatility is down even more. So like your risk adjusted returns are even higher. You're actually saying the returns are higher, but melting I was like, so all these signals you've had for so long. But these, it is obviously a back test thing. Like, Milton Berg Edge didn't exist in 1973. Well, the back test doesn't apply. I'll tell you why. When people use return back tests, they're talking about finding various indicators or momentum measures or crossing and moving averages or rates of change that they have to test over the ESC, which ones work and which ones don't work, right? That's basically what they're doing. We just looked at market bottoms and see what took place over the years when the market bottom. We're looking for rarities, statistical rarities, 'cause my theory is that generally on a daily basis, market movements are random. What happens today is market on 7.9, the SVT8 points currently. On the news tonight, Simi's gonna tell you why it's down. Totally ridiculous. Daily moves in the market are random. However, attorney points, action is not random. At 20 points, momentum is not random. Rates of change are not random. The information you see is not random. It occurs very, very rarely, and it tips you off that a change is going to take place. So not a question of back tests, but I'll show you the signals in a minute here. Get an idea. So I like to turn back tests, 'cause back test implies you're sort of trying to find various convoluted combinations and you're gonna see it works. They do forward tests as well. Every single of us is a forward test. And always nice folks here in 2003, 2003, saying that you're by, by, by, by, that was a forward test. I was right, because the signal that worked in the past worked in the future. When I spoke to an April of 2026, 2025, we have to add that decline. And I said, by, by, by, that's a forward test. 'Cause I'm using a startup indicator to what happened in April this year is also forward test. When I give my clients, but it's a forward test based on the rarity of data and the theory is when this kind of rarity of data is, it's, it's suggestive of usually of panic selling of, of major reversals and so on and so forth. So your question is good. I don't know if my answer is good as your question but I'm trying to explain, the term back test is very negative connotations. 'Cause back tests as they say never work. Back tests never work. 'Cause back tests people just change the parameter by a certain amount, and you need to move the algorithm, certain amount just to get it to fit. This is not data fitting. This is looking at bottoms and seeing which data, recruit at those bottoms. Did you recruit any other. And if it did, then those were real market bottoms. And it didn't occur another, it's a signal. Let me just continue on the number of trades. An average is one round trip trade in the 100, 40 years for the retail. In other words, the kind of investor, retail investor looking for is not a person who has to watch the screen every day and see what the market is doing. The average trade you go long and if it debills every 100, 40 years. For example, in 2025, you had one trade which occurred on April 4th, 2025. We got out of March of this year, we got in April 10th. One trade for this year as well, you see. An average one round trip trade per year. Now, I actually listed every single bidate in history, just to give you some idea, don't wait 24th, 57, which is one day before a low. November 1st, 1960. Various, these are all a bicycle, do you see? - Does the model get back in when you have any bicycle whatsoever or they have to be model? - The model goes in at the first bicycle. - First bicycle, okay. But for institutional model, we're gonna constantly get confirming signals we're gonna talk about a retail adictive for these signals. 'Cause they're doing a stick with the market until the market declines eight percent or so. So this is what we did for the retail. And as you show you, these signals aren't institutional and they're single, institutional only has perfect signals. So in other words, while the retail cap will get in right here and lose, we call it even further to for institutional to have only perfect signals. For institutions, we recommend, I'll be getting telling them, let me just finish retail. Any more, let's go back here. I mean, you're in a retail model long right now, 100% long right now. - Yeah, yeah, let me show you. Let me show you something right now. Look, this might not be updated to currently, might not. - Yeah, let's go 2026, yeah. - Socks, 10 they rate a change in the full ad for seven indexes, 20% to greater. And the SAP is at a two year high. Just simple ad, S. - That sounds pretty bullish to me. - Well, let's look at it. It is bullish, but I wouldn't, this is, here we go. It's less leg up in 87, gained the 28%. Okay, it's multiple say, in 1997, after minor correction, and right here, it gained eight, well, it's only updated in June 12th. It's gained, it gained significantly more, by about 11% since then. So this is a single, but this is not, you know, we're ready bullish, I don't really, this is not important, single, we had so many signals before that. So I didn't really show it today in the presentation. That's the last signal we got. - That is interesting, Milton. Now, among gold, silver and oil, what is the, your most interesting things you have to say, you can kind of choose the topic. I know last time you came on, you said, you sold your gold and silver the day of the high. - I got on to you, we talked about gold, but it's about gold now, 'cause I prepared to speak about gold. Just to show the, just to show what happened, post, post, post, post, post, post. - You call on Twitter, if you call on Twitter, when I said I sold no one believed me, remember they said, I had to show my check. - Yeah, I believe you, Milton. - You don't believe me, but do you remember all this guy say, it's ridiculous, no one sells it with pop, right? We sold our Jerry 29th, I tell you, woke up in the middle of the night, I saw it's going on, it's a feature market goal, it's all my life, we got to sell our gold. This is the top, and we sold, I didn't get the exact top, but the time I got to the dealer during the day, the market's really lower, but this is our gold sale. Next. - I never dated you, Milton. - Next, we showed this last time, and you say, people would say, now's the time to buy gold. This is gold in various currencies, GDP way of currency, and we said, maybe this was a time to buy gold here, or maybe this was a time to buy gold here, but it suggests that the great time to buy gold is right here, it made absolutely no sense, just looking at a chart, made no sense. And then I said, if we really had a hyperinflation, a high inflation, why would gold, this is the January reading, why would gold relative to crude be so high? Crude also moves inflation, we discussed it earlier, right? Crude moves with inflation, so why would gold be that extreme to crude? - Yep, you divided gold by soybeans too, and you said. - So what do we show them? This is again, gold divided by crude, okay? Then we show gold according to relative to housing. I mean, housing is also moves with inflation, right? So why would gold be at the second highest level ever? - Gold when we recorded in early February, gold relative to literally every other commodity on the planet Earth was very high. - Right, anyway, my point right now is, that's not a trading signal. - Yeah. - When that happens, it's a long-term signal. For example, this peak in gold in 1980, relative inflation led to a 20-year bear market in gold, 20 years of bear, even though inflation doubled over the period, less than 20-year bear market. I believe, I'm not saying 20-year bear market, I don't believe we saw trading top in gold. I believe we saw a long-term top in gold. And this is gold to CPI, okay? Silver to CPI was not at, silver's not the same extreme, but silver has been a dog really, relative to gold for decades already. So silver is trading more like a week amount, even a strong commodity like the gold trade, like silver. Let me see. This is someone on the internet, I don't believe it, but I'm gonna show it, he's trying to say, going back to 1993, a long-term cup in handle that the pullback is a pullback, it's at a bull market and it's headed up to, I think he's talking about like $3,000 for silver. This is silver. I don't buy these charts. To me, this is showing an extended market, not a cup in handle. Cup in handle makes sense with stocks, with companies that have retained earnings. Silver doesn't have any retained earnings. This is a long-term chart showing that it was at an extreme. He might be right, the back test was in a cup in handle chart. I think it was a long-term top and we're not gonna be heading much higher. That's my opinion. This is the report we wrote on January 30th. I don't know if I showed it to you last time. - You did, you did. - Right, you wrote. - You nailed it. - Literally the day of the pull. - Let me see where I will be here. This is, oh, now here's silver, here it is. See this upside gap, I was tricked by this gap. I went long on this gap, thinking it's impulsive. We were out of gold, we traded long here, we got out here, believe it or not, and I got long here and I was wrong because this gap three days after the low, turned out to be an exhaustive gap into a tracing reliance in a bear market, you see? So I was very wrong about that. I'm just showing you the chart. We're upside gap in spot on June 15th, and this is the low, it's basic. Let's see, it's another chart of silver. - What about now, what about now and silver? - I'm gonna tell you now, I'm gonna tell you we're positioned long on the upside gap. I write it down, but we were wrong. Let me tell you what I tell you, what I hold, what I feel now when you see an amygd. This is turning out to low, we felt this bullish. We got out of gold to silver and GDX just a few days ago, right before the big up movie had less few days. And maybe we'll get back in. I just, since we have what I call the Montgomery cycles, taking place this week, I think it's likely a more than probable that gold and silver and GDX peak again this week and trade back down to the lows. I think we're in a long-term bear market in gold and silver. I think we did a bear market, we're going to have very good rallies, maybe we're in one of those rallies, but I thought I'd play it, I got out, I'm probably not playing it now, but if you look at a long-term history of gold and silver chart, even during the major bear markets, of course they have strong up moves within the bear market. So I say we're in a bear market in gold, I don't think we make new highs, but I think we will have, we've raised new rallies, we have a nice rally up here. I mean, a significant percentage rally in gold, maybe it was like 30% of the gold right now. We got long here and was wrong, it was exhaustive as you can see, normally it's impulsive after a low. Cape down close, we got long again, we got out, you missed these three days of rally, but now we're in a period where you can get a retracement rally top and we think that's more than, more than random to get it. So we're out now, let's see what happens in the next three days. We're cautious over the next three days in all markets. We need the Cospy, my generator, might be heading down to a retracement low with a test of the low, so to the sucks. And I think it's possible, the SP for 100 also, is making a short-term top, or heading back to the low. So you know, we're not pounding it, but anything at this point. But Milton, if the Cospy, if the Cospy NASDAQ or semiconductor index go through, IE, they go below the July 29th lows, is that gonna be bearish? - If the Cospy goes below this low, I'll show you what I said, I wrote to my client, the Cospy goes below this low right here, this low, in interday low, not the closing low. - Yeah, that's very bearish because in a crash, that should not happen. If it's crashed, it should test it, but not get below it. I mean, let's look at the Cospy over those three days. On the three day period, the Cospy is down 22.68%, I mean, that's a crash. And crash lows are tested, but crash lows are inviolated, and the test is on a closing basis, you see? It could make a lower low. And that would be very, very normal, for it to close, be very normal for the Cospy, to close below this low. But you saw on July 30th, what would be very, very unlikely for it to trade below the interday low of July 29th. - So how extreme is the difference between the intraday low and the low? - I'll give you that right away. Let's put it this way. From the current price of the Cospy, the interday low is 19% below the current price, okay? From the closing low, which was the next day, the current price is 12%. - Okay, it was 12% to 19% decline. - Yeah. So anything between 12% to 19% is normal. Anything more than 19%, it suggests something different than this is going to go much lower. - So if the Cospy sells off 13% from here, as we record, the ad, - One more on here, the longest 10th, that's fine. But if it sells off more than 19%, Millson's getting very worried. - Yes, exactly. - Okay. - We're low on the Cospy, let's have five small parts for you, which is just here where we couldn't talk. avoid it, you know, you had a major crash into a cycle date, panic selling, you know, Roger calls it all over the place. Look, the marker was liquefied. You know, that's it you want to see. You know, good mark is one in which not a liquidity becomes liquidity. That's what happened in that market. Tops occur when there's no low liquidity, bonds occur in conjunction with excess liquidity. Final question about the long bond. The 30 year treasure yields now at the highest level since I believe 2007. So on a technical basis, it is not looking amazingly healthy to put it mildly. I haven't to think the following. I have a strong, I have a strong view on bonds actually. Yeah. Very strong view on bonds, which nobody shares with me. Let me go to long term, let me get a long term chart of bonds. Okay. Let go back to 1980. You see, you see your bonds are now 5.424. Yeah. You're a decade, your bond in longer be able to greater. I think your long bonds are way, way, way, way, way, way cheap. The yields are very cheap, bonds are expensive. I think that yields should easily go up to 60 to 60% to 78% as a normal fluctuation over the long term in bonds. People are acting the bonds are very oversold because it's at 5.42%. Well, let's look at the chart. Let's look at the chart, simple look at the chart. Look at this. From 1980 until until basically, even two bonds are always above current yields. Right? Yes. And no reason should get above those yields. I think this is normal market. This is normal bond action. This wasn't based on any inflation at all. Yeah. And if you get what I, what I enter the business 2019 because of the trend line and then the trend line that happened in March 2020 with the yields collapsing, literally people would draw a trend line implying that like yields would go negative. Like as if the 10 year would go to negative 3%. Like as if that was their base case. So it just goes to show that, yeah, the trend line has been broken. And I was just literally milling this morning thinking, you know, to use your rule of what can I say with nothing's telling me that this can't happen. Like the spread between, you know, the yield curve between 2 and 10s can get as wide as like 300 basis points. So nothing says that, you know, with even with the fed cuts rates and cuts rates to 3% that the 10 year would go to 6%. Yeah. Okay. I have no problem with the 10 year, 30 year going higher. I don't think it's negative. That itself is not negative for the stock market. It was negative for the stock market. If it's, if it's tightening, if it's liquidity squeezes, if it's bankruptcies, yeah. You know, I think it's pretty normal for bond 30. I mean, what? I wouldn't buy a 30 a bond except to trade. I wouldn't buy it to hold at 5.24% knowing the history of the United States inflation. Why would I? And I, especially in a taxable account, why would I buy a bond? It's literally 5%. It makes no sense. So, you know, if it's 6, 7, 8%, at least you're earning something. So I'm not, you know, I think bonds were, I think the federal reserve was going crazy over these years, allowing bonds to get to, and it's low. The 30 year was at 0.69%. That's crazy. I think it's letting the bond market is taking it back to normal and normal is more like, you know, 6, 7, 8%. So, it's just my view. I got it. Well, should we leave it there, Milton? Thank you. This was exhilarating. I went through a lot of stuff here. Milton, thank you so much. People can find you on X at Berg. Milton, your retail service is Milton Berg edge, Milton Berg edge. Calm and institutional clients can find you at Milton Berg. Calm, not Milton Berg edge. Calm. Correct. [BLANK_AUDIO]