Million Dollar Manual Trading w/ Clay Alter | Ep 154

match like everyone knows you know for an NFL game like everyone's betting yes touch Sean scores right but Maybe you know if you are on the no side enough you know that like very specific players that price is in a steam like 5 cents down so just wait and like that There's like one player that I consistently saw that happen because there's just so much rec flow on What's up everybody we got GPSP C a got clay a I think you're you're on Twitter your clay altar right So we're not I came in with my public persona and then Maybe had second thoughts about that later, but it was out of the box. Okay, we can do that if you want to delete your Twitter I was like actually I should have made sure but anyway. Yeah, you're clay altar on Twitter clay a on on call she Thanks for joining us for another we're on fire with like first Podcast guests who also crush it gambling was a generational run SP Yeah, yeah, we're excited. I was you know, I was talking to my wife about the I usually give some so she's curious like the guests We have on and I was talking and it made me realize like how Greatful I am for the Calhoun sheet leaderboard Because it gives us like an infinite supply of guests or at least a starting supply of guests that would be hard So for anybody, you know has a heard of clay clay has been doing very well on on Calhoun for some time now We'll get into you know all the prediction market stuff Certainly, but when we were getting ready for this episode you you shared a couple notes and I had no idea You know, I had the gambling Twitter space is a big space and you think you know like all the corners of it But I had no idea you were sort of like in in the space for longer than I had thought I thought you was just like a prediction Marketplay, but you've actually been doing different types of gambling for for decent amount of time So why don't you kick us off with like where you started betting? I know you had mentioned poker in the that line But like how you got into it and and what those early experiences were like Yeah, definitely I started with poker Um, I think it was 2017. I just graduate college was working at my first corporate job And this guy met at work was Italian and it played Tonopoker so obviously you played poker. Yeah, I met at work as Italian So that's all we need to know that exactly Stereotypes that I don't know well just euros are generally pretty good at poker. I'd say okay. I got it Um, so he had played like made a bunch of money and was able to go to Carnegie Mellon for University with the money he made from poker So I think it was just one day after work. He's like you want to go to the casino wasn't too far from us um I had played like a couple times as a kid, but you know nothing serious Uh, so we went play discuss the hands after and I was like oh this is like This isn't just luck. There's a ton of skill and logic involved So pretty much like I probably went like five days a week for the next year or something after that and I probably took me about a week to realize like okay, I think I'm winning in this game like beating one too live is pretty easy A week after you went for the first time Yeah, but I was playing every day so maybe I looked actually at my old sessions I think I won like small that first session And then lost three in a row and then from there I won like my next five sessions and I probably was winning at that point What uh, I mean even even yeah one two live obviously soft, but like that's pretty impressive I like where you studying away from the table or like you learn like just playing poker for the first time and as this AC No, I was playing at a small card club in Westlake each so got you probably wouldn't have heard of it But I definitely spent a lot of hours at work like reading content after I went that first day um, and we like would go to the gym together during work So the whole time we're at the gym I'd just be like asking questions And it probably helped I was like pretty tight so if you're just not playing a ton of hands pre-flop it's not that hard to just Play good hands and get the money and good So it's interesting about that story is You know that was that's fairly late. Obviously, you know like it's all relatively in your life But I you know, I feel like most of the people we've had on the podcast had some story of them gambling at an age far earlier than probably what is uh some real society So that's fairly late So what I'm curious about is I feel like when most people hit a certain age and they're you know They've not been bit by the the gambling bug. They sort of View it as like I'm just gonna lose money no matter what like this. It's just not worth it It's just like a suckers game What was it because you had this friend who you know you trusted and saw sort of like the results that he put you said he paid for his school with it Where's there something else that made you think like this is actually something we're doing is not just like you know It's sucker waste of time type thing Yeah, I think that definitely helped knowing like all right like this is a smart guy clearly there's um Something there and I did like research like it's fairly easy to find some videos and understand like okay This is a math game not a game of luck um And my cousin had also played poker Like when I was much younger, I think it was like an all-in-er-fold game if you know what that is where it's basically you just have to go all in our fold pre-flop and as long as you just wait for decent cards you're probably no win because people just point off Um, so I knew a little bit like okay, you could make money doing this but um, I just hadn't gotten into it myself So you're you're working you're playing poker maybe give a little bit of context on like what you're you're schooling background Was just a little bit like what your your back is over and you were going through the conversation We have a little bit of context. I'm like what you went to school for what you were doing Because I think eventually you know, you move into sports and all these other things So maybe give a little context on what you were doing for the job and then maybe talk a little bit about um When you started to maybe branch out or like your first experiences outside of poker Yeah, so I went to university Miami for school study finance and accounting Kind of thought I would go like investment banking route, but Didn't get that like junior year internship, which without that it's pretty hard to do Um, so I ended up going into the renewable energy space um Kind of like an analyst analyzing the profitability of solar and battery storage um That you would put behind the meter at like a corporate let's say amazon headquarters or big companies you put it on their site and it offsets their electricity bill um So I was doing that Eventually joined like a new product team and got into electric vehicles Where we were trying to convert fleets like let's say a fleet of school buses from diesel to electric and Financing that whole operation Buying the buses putting in the chargers. So that was like a big analytical Problem like is this profitable? You have to have software that figures out These buses have these routes they got to go on when can they charge All that stuff so I think I was always very good at understanding these kind of complex problems and so I had a big role in all that Um, let me try and remember the second part of your question. Oh, oh, they're gambling so I so doing all that I really was playing poker a lot and I think I had this like dream maybe like oh one day. I'll just play poker full time, but poker which is it's kind of odd very different to me than sports betting the mental Drain because you kind of always are questioning your decisions versus sports betting when I make a bet like I know It's good So the result doesn't bother me nearly as much as poker where I'm like was that a good decision or am I rationalizing it in retrospect? um So I was doing all that COVID happened. I moved I was actually in San Francisco at the time So I'd moved from Florida to San Francisco for the same job came back to live I was I was playing mostly live, but I also did play online especially COVID yeah, I was gonna ask about COVID. Okay Yeah, so like I was going live to a casino um in the Bay Area and then COVID happened and I just started playing online um Which obviously is a lot harder, but I was still profitable online. Just you're going smaller stakes um Yeah, then my brother actually This was I think Early 2021 my brother must have joined the sports books and he wanted a referral bonus So I was like sure I'll sign up he told me about the sign up promos those made sense So I I did that and then I think I just saw like oh there's these odd boosts their boosting like odds from plus 100 to like plus 200. Like that seems good. You look up. There's a two way line. You're like, okay, that's got to be good. So I just started doing those and kind of scaled from there. Yeah, I agree to you on poker. Like in poker, you'll make a fold and you'll never know if it was good. I like can learn that it just haunting for the rest of your life. You'll never see your opponent's hand and you'll be like, even if you did see their hand, you wouldn't even really know if it was a good fold. I would come back at like, I don't know, like on a weekday maybe like 1 a.m. or something. I was pretty late and I wouldn't be able to fall asleep till like three because I was just replaying every decision in my head and that was just not healthy. No, and the hours. But I actually had this question that popped up because we have some, you know, we have some guests that come from poker, something that don't. I feel like we have a lot of listeners probably that have maybe gone from poker to sports betting. If sports betting and prediction markets were outlawed tomorrow, would you rather go back to the renewable corporate job or go play full-time poker? Quick answer, you don't have to go to deep into this, but I'm just curious. I think I'd go back to corporate, but probably in a different industry. Yeah, fair enough. I think so too. So anyway, so now you see the light with sports betting. You got your feet wet with some of the promos, which I think a lot of us, that's kind of how a lot of us started. What was the scale from there? And like at this time, you are working, playing poker, and then your brother introduced you to the promos. So it's kind of like three things going on at once. Or where were you going to do? Yeah. This was like 2021 COVID, working, playing some online poker in New Jersey, and then started sports betting as well. And probably two months into that, some frustrations I had with we kind of had a re-org at work and I was a little frustrated with the direction, some of the leadership of my company was going in. So I just decided to, I'm going to quit work. I'm going to do some traveling. I'd saved up a bunch of money. And when I came back from traveling, I was like, let me give it like five months to just kind of chill. And during that five months, I think I just was constantly making more and more money each month from betting that it got to the point where I was like, okay, I'm almost making what I was making at my corporate job now from betting. Let me just stick with this and see how long it lasts. So I want to ask you about like your brother basically and like what was the impetus of him getting you started like in gambling at all? Like was he a gambler? Was he just seeing the ads and taking the easy money? Well, one thing I wanted to ask you about because, you know, maybe we could come back to this later, but I thought it was an interesting point. You said, you said like now when you make a bet, you know, it's good. As opposed to, you know, in poker, that's not necessarily the case. I know everybody has like different betting styles and whatnot. I would say for me, I would love, if every time I made a bet, I knew it was good, but there's plenty of time still like in sports betting, where that's not the case for me. So is that, do you think that's like a, like when you said that, is that a reflection of your betting style, which will sort of like get into like what types of stuff you're betting? Is that a, or is that more just like, you know, over the long term, I know like this is good or what, what comes behind that statement? I think it's definitely my betting style. I tend to only make bets that I think have quite a high ROI. And if I am originating something, it's usually, we can kind of get into this more, but it's like creating a model from a baseline. So like if you have someone's player points and you just want to come up with like, what is their series? What is the chance for the average like 20 points in a series? And you know, their game one line is 15 and a half points. Like you can pretty confidently come up with that number. And you know, if, if something's, I make it, you know, 20% is the fair odds and it's listed at plus 450. I'm probably not going to bet it. If it's listed like plus 700, I'm going to take it. And even if I'm, you know, a little bit off in my math, I know that's still going to be good. Got it. So it's like a reflection on your, your sort of bet selection. You're trying to find, you know, like in general, pretty, pretty big spots where the pretty serious deviations. Exactly. Yeah. I think in poker too, like the big decisions and the big spots are always so close. Like the ones that you think about. So like your biggest like river spots are going to be stuff like you might not have studied. And it's going to be like a really weird run out and you just don't really know. So like your biggest bets and biggest spots in poker, I feel like are almost the opposite of sports betting where it's like the thinnest spots, you know. Definitely. Or you've been playing with someone for, I don't know, an hour and you saw them show up with one hand that doesn't make that much sense, but like it's hard to generalize. Like maybe that's their strategy that they play some crazy hand early on and then you think they're crazy and they actually just don't plough after that. Like so you construct it a range for them that, you know, maybe it was completely wrong because you based it on such a small sample and you don't really run into that issue nearly as much in a betting. Yeah, I was in touch on US about my brother as well. He's just like a huge sports fan. So I think his kind of, I think had I not influenced him, he probably would have been like the normal recreational like throw $5 on a parlay on the weekends kind of better. But yeah, once I got into betting, I was like, all right, you're gonna make money doing this. So now he can't even enjoy betting anymore. You've totally, yeah, I remember in every room. Yeah, yeah, he can't watch sports, can't enjoy betting. He's a lot of sports. Now it's just the whole thing has been tarnished because of your decisions. But that's helpful context because the thing I was going to ask is you had this, you had this buddy in poker who you saw one and that like contributed to you taking seriously. It's obviously different if you were like taking poker seriously and then going into sports. But was there any like, it sounds like pretty quickly, because a lot of people see the bonuses and take advantage of that. I have friends who think gambling like, you know, they're gonna lose and this, you know, whatever, but will still like take the free money or whatever. But they that's sort of where they leave it. Was there any like inclination of that or did it immediately click for you that? You know, like I know you mentioned some of the other promo stuff. So maybe you could talk about like whether that stuff clicked immediately for you and then eventually you move past like promo stuff. And so like how did that evolution take place? Yeah, so it's hard for me to remember exactly. But I know very early on I found Captain Jack's videos on YouTube and that was definitely really helpful. He does a very good job of explaining like, say like the basic concepts and even some more advanced stuff. So that was probably my main teaching tool. Along with I think some of it was probably pretty intuitive, but that was very helpful. And then I used to so I was doing all these promos. I would send like a text to my brother like screenshot promos, you know, every single day and you get to the point where you're doing like 10 different books. And then I think I had my best friend in this chat too. I'm doing all this work and I was like, I wonder if there's like a Twitter account or something that does these promos. And he was also he was in Michigan. I was in New Jersey. So there was state-specific boosts. So now I'm like calculating, you know, is this a play for something? I'm not even betting. So I went on Twitter and I found this a promo guy, one, two, three account that literally put out the promos for I think it was like fendole at the time, drafting, seasors and maybe like bar stool. And I was like, okay, this guy seems like he knows what he's doing. Like just follow him. And that actually he had a discord that he launched at some point. I joined that discord and his big thing was same game parlays. And that's kind of how I went from like books are efficient, but I can win on the promos to wait a second. Maybe there's actually a lot of inefficiencies and there's a lot of other ways to win. I think that's it's interesting that you went from promos to SGPs. Like I feel like SP we've had people who've come on in their first kind of like big spots have been SGPs, but even I don't know. I don't I haven't watched all Captain Jack's videos, but I feel like coming from that, you know, you'd be maybe like coming from that in poker, you'd be maybe skeptical of of SGPs, but like that was a spot where I was like way too skeptical. Like that was SGPs like early were probably a big misopportunity for me. So how did you kind of quickly get on board to be like, oh, this is a huge spot? Went a lot of the rhetoric at the time was like SGPs are like the worst bet being offered. Yeah, and I will say there was a pure period of time in there because I think it was Odds Boom before Odds Sam bought them. That was like a really cheap tool. It was like 15 bucks a month and they would send you like arbitrage plays. So I did do a little bit of arbitrage first and I think like I had seen a Captain Jack video on arbitrage. I mean, and also in school like arbitrage is a thing in finance. So I was familiar with that. But I think it was just like this guy was very good at articulating why the same game parlays were good. And it was also pretty evident like he would do some what I'll call like he would call combo plays where he would do a play on two different sports books that created a synthetic line for like a main line. So let's just say it was like the blue jays to win and over nine and a half runs on one book and then the other book would be the blue jays to win and under nine and a half runs. So essentially you're just taking the blue jays to win and the combined price let's say the blue jays fair price to win is plus a hundred in the market and both those same game parlays were like plus 350. So that's like eight. I do that right. Yeah, I think that's like 23% each of those. So those add up to like 46% something like that. So you have a clear edge from doing this combo play and so that kind of takes away like any doubt that maybe you don't know which side of the same game parlay at which book is good, but you could just do this combo and come up with a line that often you could just arb the main line if the blue jays were playing the match. You could take the match at you know plus a hundred on the other side and you have this synthetic that's like plus one 15. So you created an arb. I don't know if that made sense. Yeah, I'm really like am I stupid? Like I never thought of this or have heard of this. I think this promo guy wants you to like is like a lot of the sharp community isn't super aware of him, but he's one of the brightest peep. I've never met him or anything, but just he would have like spaces and just the stuff he came up with like extremely smart stuff. So I think I was lucky to stumble across like one of the few non-scan discords out there. Yeah, it's like certainly unique. Like everybody and me included, I feel like talks with things about SGPs are like, oh like this leg is like broken or you do this inverse correlation and it's like or this yeah, yeah, you do like an inversely correlated thing, but it's penalized too much or whatever. I never thought of just like using it to basically trade basically to arm. Yeah, that's yeah, and he came up with it. It honestly shocked me like there's so many good things he'd come up with and you'd think like, okay, all these edges are then a die pretty fast, but I think most people in there just were not going to reverse engineer like what is causing this edge? Like I would say, okay, what's causing the edge and now like before he even posts anything like, let me check it for every game or every player and then I was just betting them all on my own. And then through that process, you kind of like stumble into all their stuff. This is strong backing for my take of getting in as many discards because you could sift through a lot of garbage discards and still have it be worth it if you found like one like that right at the time. You know, it sounds like you got very lucky in one of the first ones. You joined was a was a really good one, but you know that it's it's the only one I've actually ever joined. I think you can tell though from like what people post on Twitter like, are they full of shit or is there like, you know, is this person like smart? I think well, you can tell now like, like we can all kind of tell now or it. That's true. I think if you've like been in the space a while and you're pretty sharp, it's a lot easier to differentiate. I think if you're just a regular better, it can be extremely confusing. You just see like, oh, this person's posting like crazy wins. Like they must win. Whereas like, I see that and I'm like, okay, there's what's that chair? It's just random. Yeah, I think the other part is like in a sufficiently large discord, it's like the person running it might not be providing anything of value, but there's if there's enough people like poking around eventually like, you know, a squirrel finds a nut and like post something that's interesting sometimes and you're like, they might not even understand really what they found like to your point of like, I think a lot of the discord's like rely on people not actually understanding what they're doing and just like sort of give them the pick and hope it never gets destroyed. But you know, for someone who's actually trying to, you know, win and take it seriously, that's where most of the edges is figuring out what they're actually doing. No, that's a good point. There was definitely people that would post a lot of times it's like, hey, I found this, like this seems like it might be good and they don't really know and then you're like, oh, that's definitely good. And you kind of just don't say anything and you just run it. You give it the best. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm sure this shit chalk dude. It's actually funny. I did join the bookie beads discord. They had like a one week free trial and I went in there and I saw Kobe who I, you guys might have had on there or he's now Kobe is a, uh, he'll come on when he's retired at 24. Okay. Costa Rica. I thought maybe he was on one podcast. Maybe I just see him all the time. Yes, we like Kobe. We ask him. He's just, he makes too much money right now. I guess. Yeah, see him on the leaderboards. You know, I'm trying to chase him down. I saw you. I saw you as, I'm getting closer coming for you, Kobe. I saw you as in this discord. I literally just like search the same. I'm reading through like every comment he's written like trying to figure out if he like, you know, said something about his edge like, um, didn't, didn't find anything useful. But I was kind of just snooping in this discord to see like, is anyone putting out anything interesting? Unfortunately, didn't find anything. So I imagine the people in that discord are pretty sharp about what they say and don't say, you know, yeah, like SP your theory is like you find a discord where you're like, you're actually like nobody sharp would think it's, it's good. Like bookie beats. I'm thinking probably purpose discord. I don't know. Like, but I'm very thoughtful about what they say. Because they know there's a lot of, like, the unabated discord. You're not going to go on. You want like, ones where people are just firing off takes without a single thought. Anyway, there's also a lot of, a lot of junk to wait through. Like so these discord have so many channels that are just no doubt. I think it's overwhelming. Like the Calhchee discord and it's like, I don't know, fire hose of garbage most of the time. But let's get told like, go in there. It's hilarious. But I hope it is content like around like when the site goes down or there's something going on, whatever market gets canceled, their positives, it's brilliant. The way it's going on there. But let's get back to back on track. So you're, you're betting SGPs. You're still working at this point. Do my understanding is at this point, I had quit. I had quit my job like before I was even like, I don't know, I was making a few thousand a month when I'd quit my job from betting. So what was that decision? Like I know you had mentioned that. You were just like, I was just like, I'm ready for a break from work. Like I was just frustrated with, with work. But I was fully expecting at that point to get another job. I was just like, okay, it's, I'd saved up a lot of money. I had a runway. I could have lived, you know, for a couple of years if I didn't have a job. Why did you travel to? I'm just, just curious. Like, it was like, you're up Italy. I went to see that poker friend. He, nice. So I traveled with him and then kind of on my own to France and Spain. Wow. Very cool. So you were going to get another job. When does, when does it sort of like set in the realization that like, I'm actually not getting another job? I think it was, it was a couple of months in. Like I think I had made like my first, I don't know, maybe like $15,000 a month. And like I was tracking daily and like I think I was probably up money like 80% of my days. And I was like, okay, this is actually, which isn't, that sounds kind of crazy. But when you're doing a ton of promos, like the edges so high, it's, and you're doing them across like 10 books. It's, it's pretty easy to almost always have a winning day. So I was just like, this is pretty consistent. I think my main reservation was like, what are my parents in a think if I'm doing this? Like, I know they want me to get a regular job. But at some point, the money was just like good enough that I felt like this was a defensible decision. So why don't we just go tell your parents that's what every, like honestly, like that is a huge question. It's like, not like, should I do this? It's like, how can I tell my parents? I'm like, dude, you're like 32. Well, you weren't having to talk. How old were you? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And like, I'm pretty independent. I wasn't, I think that's just kind of like another hurdle in your mind. It's not like, oh, if they say no, like that's in it, you know, change my decision. It's just like another thing you think about. And also, like just, you know, I'm still single, but we'll single at the time. Like, all right, now you gotta go day it and you gotta explain. to people that like, yeah, I'm a professional gambler, but like it's not really gambling, like it's consistent income, et cetera. - So you, what I wanted to ask about, like, you know, where you're, like did the conversation with your parents go well? And then the other part, I wanted to ask was related to, like some of the, your views on like the longevity of it, 'cause obviously like part of it, you know, it's easy to make a little bit of money at most sports books, it's hard to make a lot of money. At most sports books with limits and all, you know, these things. So I wanted to ask about those two things. - Yeah, it wasn't like, I think the conversation was always like, hey, this is good, I'm gonna do it while it lasts. And in my mind, and I probably told people, I was like, yeah, probably another like 12 months, and then it's gonna be done. And then it just kind of kept extending. - Smart, now obviously. - Smart, you know, it's okay. - Yeah, it's just like, why not, why not say that? Like it's like, I'll be doing this for another 12 months. Yeah, sure. And then after that, you still could be doing it another 12 months. - Exactly. - So on the, on like the longevity, like where you, where you still on like sort of like your own, all doing this, all your own, I know you had mentioned your, you know, in a chat with your brother and maybe friends, like how were you viewing this as like a long term, even like a year, right? Like I don't know exactly, obviously I would say, and you know, accounts get cracked down quicker. These days, and probably back then and whatnot. But I'm sure you were aware of some of like the hurdles, like to scaling this and making this long term viable back then as well. So how did you think about those? - Yeah, I was all in my own, and I like, I literally only had my own accounts, like into 2024, like the first three years, basically was just me on my accounts. They lasted pretty long, I would say. I wasn't betting huge, which may be helped, and then there's Casino, New Jersey, which I think is a big help to getting longevity out of sort of draft king specifically, but probably some of these other ones as well. So I'd, I mean to this day, I'm pretty much just all on my own. So I never really thought about like scaling. What I did scale with some, you know, partnerships will call them, but not like, it was basically just me sending bets to people, and like, we'll split this 50, 50 like friends kind of thing. And then once I had hopped on CalChi and New Jersey changed their laws with proxy betting, which a whole other thing that was kind of convoluted what it actually means, but so I kind of just stopped that and back on CalChi just doing that on my own. - The one thing I wanted to touch on before we got to CalChi was, you did say that you were briefly running a discord. It was like a lot of friends and maybe some family, but there's been questions. I saw what on Twitter from somebody who was quite a good better, who was like, should I do a product or a discord or just keep betting? What was, I've been there, I think betting is definitely the choice, but like, maybe for people who think that there's a lot of scale there, like what was that like, and why do you decide to just bet instead of going that route? - Yeah, so I did, I started the discord, I don't know, 2022 sometime. Mostly it was like, you know, I had this group chat, I probably had like three or four people now, my brother, my best friend, my cousin maybe, and it's just like they're blowing me up with questions, my phone's buzzing on stop. I was like, let's make this a discord. And then I was like, why don't I just post it on Twitter and see if anyone wants to join 'cause I'm gonna be posting all this stuff anyway, and maybe a couple people join. So that's kind of how it started was just like, I'm trying to give all these plays to my family and friends. And then I grew a little bit. I think the most people I've ever had was like 50 people. And I had a friend that was like, hey, like we had a little arrangement where he was in a like market for me in Instagram, he made all these videos, he put up posters like all over New York City bars, none of that like helped, like it did not scale. - Wow, the in the grassroots discord. - He had a guy that he paid, that does that. - Okay. - Which I did get one, I got one person from a poster, it was like an older, like I think it was like a 50 year old gentleman that joined and from that. So that was kind of funny. But yeah, like the amount of money I made, I think over three years was like $80,000 from the discord, it was like 50 bucks a month and probably 20% of the people weren't paying 'cause it was like family and really close friends. So like all this stress from that, and also just like I could have just scaled my own edges, 100% not worth it, but there's some good aspects, like I feel good about making all these people money. And then like when you do hit a play, like it's nice. Like everyone's, yeah everyone's celebrating it, like you feel better, but like I could be having like the best week ever and someone new joins and you like lose the bets that day and it's just like, it feels shitty. Like I know I'm giving out good plays, I know they're in the win eventually, but yeah, I was that and just having to commit to like show up each day and get all the plays and that's a lot of work. - So how did you ultimately, it sounds like it was sunsetted and it's helpful context on that because when you had a discord with 50 people, I think that's probably from my vantage point, especially if it's like family or friends, it's probably more challenging to sunset that than if you have a discord with like a thousand people and they're just randoms on the internet. So was that like a challenge for you? Was that our decision? - It was like, it was probably like a year and a half where I kept being like, okay, I'm gonna stop it, I'm gonna stop it and I just like, I couldn't like people didn't want me to go, but eventually like when I started doing very well on Calcio's like I need to devote my time to this and so I basically was like, hey, I'm gonna stop in a month, like I'm gonna cancel everyone's memberships now, but like I'll do it for another month and I think I, December 31st of 2025 was my last day. - How's it been? Well, we, this good, oh, sorry, let's be. - I was just gonna ask one other question on a discord. Like where they're like long term benefits you got from it, like because one of the things that I think is challenging for people starting is like getting exposed to other people. I think we've done like an episode in like China, put yourself out there and meet other people in the gambling space. I'm sure over like over that time you got a lot of exposure to other people. Obviously you were seemingly giving most of the plays, but I'm guessing there are other people obviously trying to win in some of that stuff. So like did that, did that help you at all? Like what was it really just, you know, given the pitch to the people? - Yeah, it's so mostly just given the pitch to the people. Yeah, there were maybe when I joined promo guys discord, like there was some other people where, I mean, I never formed like any strong connections with anyone, which like that's something that now I'm more interested in doing, but at least I got a lot more value from other posters and in that discord than my own was just, yeah, me giving out the value. - Got it. - All right, well, it's a good way to get into prediction markets. So the end of last year is when you decide the, you know, sunset the discord because of call history because of prediction markets. So obviously there was like a bit of a buildup before then where you, you know, started doing well, what was your first exposure to prediction markets? First kind of when did you realize like, oh, this is a good opportunity and so on? - Yeah, I had signed up for call sheet around the election 'cause I was like, oh, maybe there will be some opportunity on election day. - Yeah, I saw. I saw your account. - I was checking and you were a 2024 call sheet. Those are rare. I was like, just trying to do my due diligence. I was like, damn, that's crazy. - Yeah, I just thought like, oh, you know, this is probably, you know, pretty arrogant that I would have some edge on politics day of election, but I don't know. I was like, who knows what could happen. I didn't end up betting anything on election day and I pretty much didn't use the account until I saw someone I follow post the daily leaderboard. It was like September 2025 and they had made like $40,000 in a day and I was like, well, I knew this person from a discord, like they seem like a regular better. Like, there's gotta be some huge value here if they're making $40,000 in a day. Like I didn't think they were like a massive better either. So like I hopped on and pretty quickly like found what I'd say was like my first edge, just it was like a live edge college football. And from there, it just kinda like grew. Like, I think, like, pretty much the first. week I was like, okay, I think I can make like decent money. And then every week after that, I was like, oh, like this could be really good. And then just kept kind of finding new edges and scaling. So there's a bunch of different questions we're probably going to ask and probably be on the topic of while. But maybe can you give me, so you made the account around the elections that is like November 24 when when do you actually make the first trade? What approximate month? I think I made like, I think I made a trade on like the hot dog eating competition in July, but like realistically I started in September 2025. Okay, so as dormant, because as sort of the, I think my account was actually made in November 24, unlike you, I actually, you know, did have the hubris to try and trade the election. I think last last money and then the account was dormant for over a year. Yeah, I was priming it. Yeah, so that happened. But I guess, so you, you get on the thing I'm interested maybe to start with this conversation is the stuff you described, you were doing on traditional sportsbooks doesn't necessarily seem like the greatest fit, like transition over to prediction markets at least, you know, for my perspective, like SGP type stuff and all of that stuff isn't like a clean one-to-one fit because I give I was talking to someone and they already said, I've been doing live, Arbning for the past, you know, six months. I'd be like, okay, this is probably a really sensible fit. So why maybe like walk me through like, maybe that's a mischaracterization you were doing other stuff on the traditional sportsbook or like, did you see this as a good fit right away? It sounds like you found like a college football and sort of new potentially what you were looking for or where you just sort of peeking around and found what you found. Yeah, no, I did a lot of other stuff on traditional sportsbooks and like price pick, price picks underdog. I think I've like one of my best traits is I was just very good at finding edges. I wasn't very good at, you know, maximizing the value of them because I didn't scale up. But I think in terms of like the value of a lot of the edges that I found like, we're very good. So just having the mindset, like I could go on this platform and if there are edges, I think I will find them. That was kind of my mindset. And like some of those, I could, you know, quickly like list some of other edges I had. Yeah, you know, able to talk about, obviously, we don't want to talk about anything, you don't want to talk about, but anything, you know, to help give context because what I think people are interested in what I'm interested in is you said like your skill is finding edges. Like I'm curious like what, what you think like if we distill that, what about you is good at that or like what, what makes you actually good at that? Yeah, it's like, okay, so one thing is like futures, whether it's like props or maybe just like team futures. When you're on a sportsbook, like, there's tons of stuff offered. You're scanning through it. I think I'm very good at seeing something and pretty quickly knowing like, is this worth my time to investigate or not? So I have a pretty good innate sense of like what a fair price is for something that for many people might not be intuitive. Like they might have no idea. So like an example of that for this past SuperBOD, looked on DraftKings really quickly and saw it was like Drake May to throw for 100 yards in any quarter. And I think it was like plus 450. And I was like, okay, that seems like one is lines like 220 or something like that. It was good for both quarterbacks, but I was like, okay, this seems good. How can I quickly like come up with a fair price for that? And it was like, okay, yeah, this is maybe like plus 170 fair or something like that. So that whole process might take me, you know, five or 10 minutes. And I think if you're really good at finding edges, it's like identifying something looks off. And how can I come up with a very quick approximation? And I think that skill translates well to live markets because a lot of times, let's say I'm looking at a basketball game and it's late in the game, I might be trying to predict in my head, like if this event happens, what should the price roughly be? And I don't need to be that accurate. I just have to have a sense that if it's way off from that, I can quickly act. So I think that's like a common skill in live is like what might happen that could shift the game state and already having a sense of like what that price should look like can put you ahead of the rest of the market. So you're kind of, you say you're basically plugged into the game and you have these different like branches of the tree that it can go down and you kind of have your year price before things happen for that. So that when they do happen, you're not as much reacting as you are like, oh, that's off. Like I'm more attacking. Like waiting for the spot. Yeah, I'd say that's like I have other, you know, repeatable things that are, you know, less dependent on, I'll call like a high leverage situation, but I think there's always an opportunity when you're at a sporting event and it's in a high leverage situation because a lot like one like sportsbooks often won't even have a lineup like if it's late in a game. And I think when they don't have a lineup, a lot of people just drive their prices from what the sportsbooks show and don't have their own kind of model or so. I think those situations are always opportunities and the spread's going to be a lot bigger than like, you know, early in a game it might be a one, two cent spread, but with five seconds left, it's probably not. So I want to ask about like your your makeup of bets and like what types of things you're doing on prediction, like pretty game live, automated manual taking, making all that stuff, but maybe like to just, you know, wrap up this specific example we're talking about. Like in in these types of spots, do you view, you know, your edge as, you know, speed in those instances or is it like having the right opinion in those instances or a combination of the two? I mean, I guess you have to be somewhat fast, right? But I'm curious. Like it's a combination. I mean, if you're betting, like let's say you're watching a game on ESPN plus and you're 45 seconds behind, like you're not gonna, you're not gonna be able to, you know, come up with a good enough price fast enough, but yeah, it's a combination. That's a. So maybe two, my question, like it's, it sounds like you do a bunch of different things and you're, you know, on the prediction markets. So maybe like she's going through each, each one of the cuts that I'm interested in or if I miss any GP feel free to jump in. So in terms of making, taking like what do you, what do you estimate your, your split of that is? It's definitely mostly making like maybe 90% making. Okay, interesting. I assume coming into the show, but you know, sort of the way you talk. Yeah, maybe misled. I'm still, when I'm, I'm still usually making in those. Okay, instances largely just, I don't like paying the fees. And I'm just like, always a bit more scared to take if it's a sizable position. So I prefer to make it. Makes total sense of me. Like I said, that's what I would have assumed coming into the episode. I think I'm always surprised when, when we have some on, you know, who does more taking for those, you know, those were, we don't allow them on our show. We're gonna bring some on one day. We had me, so that maybe most of us are mostly making in terms of pregame live. It sounds like you do at least some live. Is it mostly live or it's, it's mostly live. Yeah. I would do more pregame if some all manual. Like I don't use the API. And I don't like having things just sitting in my resting page because I'm scared that I'm gonna like adjust the wrong thing. So I don't like have any futures just sitting there, like trying to fill orders or that, that's probably why I'm mostly live is I don't like stuff cluttering up my resting page on CalChi. Well, that page is slow. No, that page is slow. Like crashes like you can't rely on that page. That's all done. Well, you'll, you'll be like, you'll probably have the event up on CalChi, right? You're like, you're not, you're not gonna go, you know, you're not managing everything out of your orders page. No, I have my, I manage it all on the resting page. So like I will manually, I'll have like contracts filled out and let's say I just keep both sides of an event at one cent. I will then manually change the price when I'm and click confirm when I want to put up a position. This is insane to me. I don't know. That page is like the most non-functional page I've ever, I don't know. I was actually thinking about this today. How like, you know, CalChi for what it's worth like their tech is actually like quite good when you compare it to the competitors, I would say. Yes. They've just like thrown in the towel on that page. Like it just doesn't work for me like ever. You need to like host that page on like your own, like AWS server for it to like run. I mean, if you're, if you're, if you're doing Like I think the page gets exacerbated like the problems if you're doing stuff like automated and you ever buy just things or thing in changing. So if you're truly just managing like a small subset, my experience might not be indicative of everybody's on that page, but that is fascinating. That's how you do it. - Low tech operation over here. - You can make millions of bucks off the orders page. This is like, this is huge news that we're breaking on this podcast. - This is like in the same ballpark as when XV said he has all this order. - I always remember. - It's really like in that same universe. - Yeah, you're the same to me. - What? - Yeah, okay. So you're basically, you're watching, you're effective, are you watching a game or a feed of this game? Obviously like you said YouTube TV or whatever is not gonna be fast enough. But some sort of feed of the game and then just trying to be quick to react with opinions, your perspective, get prices up there and then get filled is that sort of like a general overview? - Yeah, I think that's pretty accurate. - So one thing I wanted to ask about because we, SP talked, I think mentioned you on a pod about the, or maybe mentioned you to me when we were having dinner about the golf whole scores and that you were in there for those. - Yeah, we had a DM about the Bryson course record, YouTube thing. So I was curious, like are you attacking these niche markets it seems like it fits your style of like being able to get to a price quickly on something. Like is this kind of part of the portfolio where you find stuff that's new, not really easy to price based off past stuff because whole scores for the masters. I think that was the first time. - It was on call sheet, right? So like nobody's set up to trade those. So is that kind of why you're looking into this? - Yeah, I definitely like the new markets and anything that's like new, but gets enough volume to be worthwhile. It's also like, even if it might not be the most profitable use of my time, it's like a good mental stimulus to attack like a new problem, try and model it out. I don't know if SP thought the same for the whole scores, but it's like a fun new challenge. I'll take that even if it's like maybe not the best use of my time. It's fun. - Yeah, I think you also learn a bunch. There's like scalable things I think you learn. Like, 'cause you know, for example, when I did the whole score stuff, I have never really done anything in golf. There are some things I learned about. I learned the power of Scottish stuff. - Yeah, like I learned something about, what type of flow I'm gonna get and how that should inform where I wanna be and stuff. In exchanging messages, it seemed like I was less successful than you, which is unsurprising given I didn't know what the hell I was doing. But, you know, so is that, are you, is that like you have sort of core markets that you focus on sort of like on a day-to-day basis and then you're always scouring for some like the new things is that sort of your strategy? - Yeah, that's pretty accurate. And I definitely agree with you on that. Like you pick up patterns and what people will do that even if it's not the same exact person, if it's the same type of person or event, like the wreck behavior will match. Like everyone knows, you know, for an NFL game, like everyone's betting, yes, touch down scores, right? But maybe, you know, if you are on the no side enough, you know that like very specific players, that price isn't a steam like five cents down. So just wait and like that, there's like one player that I consistently saw that happen because there's just so much wreck flow on this market that it would steam down. And you can pick up those things. Like another thing was like, I don't really do much soccer anymore, but like early on I would like at half time, I might make prices on soccer and like Arsenal would always just like I would be no on Arsenal at like 50 cents at half time and it would end up at like 48 cents. Like it was always just steaming down 'cause crazy wreck flow on them. So that's helpful. - Yeah, you learn, I mean, 'cause you know, if you're listening, you might be saying, well like no duh, you didn't need to take that action to learn people want to bet on like, yes, touch on stuff. But I think the thing that you said that you actually learn is like how much like, 'cause you learn like, do you need to jump the queue? Can you stay in line? Can you go further back or like how much pain are the other participants gonna be willing to take in this market or like action? So you can just get better prices, right? 'Cause there's always this game on these markets of like, do I need to be a top a queueer? Can I sit where I am and all this? And I think you get an appreciation of you trade a market enough times a couple of times. Like, I don't need to always be top of queue for this person, it's gonna get to me. - Yeah, especially if your wrist tolerance isn't infinite and you're like, okay, I'm probably only in a fill, you know, 15,000 shares on this. Like, I wanna get 15,000 shares at 10% ROI and not 3% like that's what I'm talking about. - Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's why, you know, I tapped out on Scotty on the first hole eventually. And you know, whoever was patient enough to wait there, got a better price than me, because I was not willing to stand there any longer. So, yeah, I was the market in that market. So, yeah, you realize like, market makers don't have infinite. Like, the market can stay rational, but it's not gonna stay rational if everybody's over their quality. Like, you know, there's only so much that you can take and everybody can take a buy. And like, I don't know which player this is, but like my guess is it's someone like Derek Henry and like, we're like, say, Quan Barkley and you're just sitting there and it's like, okay, like, there's infinite amount of people willing to bet yes. Like, how can I optimize as a maker to fill my shares at the best price knowing that? It's not as much like, oh, it's a stupid price. You're like, oh, how am I gonna play this game? Optimally. - Yep. Yeah, and the other thing with these things, just to close and then we'll move on, is like, these are markets where you can make the argument, like for a lot of people, they're not like the most capital of, you know, efficient. And so there's also like aspects with that. You know, there's not infinite bankrolls of everybody, but also like, you can make, because these are, these are laying a lot of money to generally win a little bit. And so that also detours like some people. So, so where I wanted to go next was, you're doing this all manually. How do you, if you do like, manage multiple, this may be a stupid question, just like shows how inept I am. But like, how do you manage multiple games or events at once, or are you like sort of, from seven to nine, I'm just trading this event, or like, this game's getting close to the high leverage and game states that I'm gonna lock in on this game. Or how do you think about that? - Yeah, normally occasionally I'll have like, if it's something that's a little easier to manage, I might be doing a few games at once, but often it's just kind of swapping around to what I think is gonna be the most profitable game at any given moment and jumping in there. - Is that hard to do to sort of like, I am guessing you don't watch like the first 44 minutes of a basketball game or something. And I don't know like to what extent that matters or doesn't matter, but is that hard to do to constantly be swapping? Like, I guess, you know, now's the NBA playoffs or whatever, we're talking about basketball, maybe a little bit easier, but like on a random Tuesday night in January, I feel like that would be a mental strain for at least me to be jumping from like game to game and trying to manage that all. - Yeah, I mean, I definitely prefer, it's funny. I prefer when it's like just one game going on, like just a prime time game, because it's not necessarily like jumping into a new game and getting like, acquainted, but it's more like, oh, am I actually in the most profitable game right now or like, should I constantly be checking everything else? That kind of bothers me more than anything else. - So to piggyback on that question, like do you see yourself or do you see your strategies as something you'd even consider automating? Is that like on your roadmap or is it just like not a good use of time to spend the time automating it? Because it's so much, you know, white magic. - There was one market that I did have a friend co-ed up and like, I did briefly use the API for that, but I ran into like a lot of issues, just like, I don't know, sometimes like I try and generate prices and they randomly like wouldn't pop up. I don't know, it was almost more difficult than it was worth. And I did have him look into the same game Parley's and the only time we got filled was when we, it was a sharp taker and God damn it. It was like, I think it was like a playoff game where they had the wrong date on one of the props. So people are just like parlaying someone over to touchdowns. We were not trying to do that. do same-game parlay as, and they essentially just filled same-game parlay as on us, that we had priced, it's not correlated. And so I figured like, okay, this is probably a pretty efficient market to like based on the kind of EV that people were getting, like looked like it was like, I don't know, 2% or something on these parlay as mostly, so it didn't seem worthwhile at that point. So one of the things I wanted to ask about was with this manual approach, it sounds like you have ideas, basically ideas of what the probabilities should be, because I guess the one part we didn't get to was like the opinion, no opinion, sort of dichotomy, like how you're splitting that. So when you're making these, are you primarily like trying to take a side, or are you, these are spots where you think, because you mentioned like, their spots potentially where like, no prices are available, and in general, you know, those, if you are willing to put up prices there, that's usually a good spot, because like you said, it's pretty easy to create a bot that's just going to post someone else's price all the time. I think we talked about last episode, if you could post prices when nobody has something that you're probably going to get action, whether it's good action or not, depends on the quality of your prices. So are you, there's a long way of asking, are you trying to get like, take an opinion on these spots, are you trying to just get prices up there that are approximately accurate and capture both sides? Um, I mean, I often find myself just on one side, like most of the time I'm not filling heavily, it's like one side I think is all. So I am willing to have an opinion. I also think if you're just trading the same type of event over and over again, you get a good sense of like, in this situation, what is the fair price? Like, if you'd watch, and not that I'm an encyclopedia, but like, if you'd watch every basketball game ever, you can probably get a rough sense of like, all right, with 10 seconds left, down three, like this team's gonna end up winning X percent of the time. And so as you keep trading a market, like, you start to realize, and maybe it's not even, maybe it won't even be the fair price, but let's say the market always ends up trading like 80/20. Well, I know like, okay, let me just, you know, post like 15/75 to start and then I have a good cushion. And even if I'm not really sure, like, it just seems so, he's end up there. So you can pick up some of those patterns as well. Yeah, I was like, going to ask that like, how much of your strategy is based on like, what we would call like population tendency in poker, like rec tendency or like what the makers do? Like how much of your alpha do you think you derive from understanding that really well compared to how much of it is coming from like an ability to price something pretty quickly? Like just roughly even like which do you think is more important? I think it's still the ability to price, you know, reasonably accurate, but as you get experienced, the other population tendencies will help inform like, do I want to shade that one way or which side is more likely to like see all the action? And I got to be a little more careful. Right, right. You're like, okay, I know like without a doubt I'll be able to get this side of this price. Yeah. So like then what do I do, you know, knowing that? Yeah. Yeah, it's like it's so interesting that I love this layer that's kind of come on top of sports from PM's like not to be a PM evangelist, but you know, it's a more fun game when you're like, I have a price, but I don't even know like the best way to squeeze as much money as possible out of that price. Like it's not just get price, fun, best price bet. You're like, okay, I know the price, but like I could still fuck this up or make a lot more money depending on like how I go about this. Yeah. So I want to talk maybe like, move into the future. Like what next steps and everything look like for you like next, what you've used next couple of years looking like, but maybe before going in that direction, I wanted to maybe ask you been on, you said your first, first trade on, I think you said September 25, right? Yeah. Okay. So Ben was that like nine months or so? Like have you noticed shifts? Obviously like, well, maybe maybe one thing we didn't ask. Are you, are you only on Calishear? Are you on other prediction markets at this point? I'm only on Calishear. And is that maybe another question? Is basically you're all in on Calishear? Are you still doing some of the OSB stuff and anything else or is it primarily on Calishear? Pretty much all in on Calishear. I did like have some NBA playoffs stuff on some of the apps, but it's like 99% Calishear. Got it. So what, what have you noticed any shifts? I was just trying to get context on what you were doing and sort of like the day to day. Like, have you noticed shifts or changes in the market specific to Calishear? Like since you started, has there, it's obviously grown like a ton, like just a number of users, even in that short time. You've been there. And I think we might have actually even got like a question in this vein. So I'm not sure if we did, but like have you noticed shifts in changes in strategy? Has it evolved or has this, you know, general thesis been sort of when you've been doing from the start? And maybe just more small thinkers? Yeah, I mean, there's definitely like bots that have infected like some markets that I used to do and, you know, maybe because of those, it just gets too competitive. But there are a lot of markets that I was kind of my first edges. Let's call them that I still will do and that hasn't dried up. But there's definitely more competition, but I've kind of found new stuff constantly that with whatever I've lost, I think I've just gained more at this point. But like don't, it's definitely scary. Like if I, I'll have like, I could have like an amazing week. I make like, you know, six figures that week. And then the next Monday, I like lose $1,000 and I'm like, oh, my time might be up. Like that happens every time I lose money. Like, it's crazy. It's like, well, that ever stopped. Yeah. Yeah. We did have a, we had a question from Jay Dougie that was kind of related to that. But yeah, I mean, I think, I think we're all in that boat. I mean, we're talking before it's like, if we knew we had a five year runway for this, like we would be maybe, you know, thinking about this all differently. But I think in the back of our mind, and when we see all the news, you're just like, damn, like this could come to an end, you know, jump could get in there and just ruin everything or, or, you know, it could be legislated to a blivian or, you know, all of this stuff. And it's just like an existential crisis every Monday as, as Clay says. Should we talk about, oh, I guess this is a question like kind of, kind of touch on it with, do you want to start automating anything and you're talking about working with a buddy to get on the API for, you know, a specific market and checking out the SGPs? Are you kind of a one man operation besides maybe that bringing that buddy in to contract and if so, like do you plan on expanding number of people? Yeah. Now I am a one man operation. I did teach my cousin, like basically different strategies and he's been betting since January and shout out to him. I think he's up like $190,000. So he's doing quite well. Let's go. You're setting yourself up to fire up a discord again, you know. But now it's just going to expect like 200 grand every four months. Yeah. I don't know, like if I found something that I was like, I can't handle this all myself and I can find a way to kind of give that away and retain profit. I do that, but it's always tricky like, how do I monetize this without just like, you could just take this edge and run with it and cut me out. I think that's a hard thing to know. Well, I think like, did you consider just like you did with your cousin like the hiring traders, like you're just, you know, you could run a scaled company that isn't automated here. Like you could teach people how you trade manually, bankroll them, you know, I think that seems to me like a good fit. Like I know people that do that in the space and do well and don't interact with API, but have a team of manual traders. Yeah, I guess that would be an option, but I don't know, like are you protected in that instance from once they know exactly what they're doing? And I mean, I guess if they don't have the capital, then there's that aspect, like you're giving them the money to trade with and they need that. But you know, if I like said like, hey, you know, golden pants like come work for me and you learn my strategies, it's like what's stopping you from then just using your own bankroll to go print. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't go apply myself, but I would tell somebody. Exactly. But no, I know what you mean. That's always the, especially when it's like you're like, oh, I'm I mean, kind of clear what I'm doing with this one, it's always tough to bring people into these situations regardless. I mean, I think if you have a more like a less reverse engineerable process, like, yeah, it's a little less scary, but I don't know. You're always giving up some of the sauce anytime you bring people in. Yeah, and I think the less reverse engineerable processes are pretty hard for someone to understand because it's almost like, you know, I am the secrets off there and that's hard to convey. It's more of the like, repeatable process that's not as complex that you can have someone else trade, but then because it's repeatable, they don't really need you around. Yeah, it seems like you're sort of in a tough spot because it seems like there would be a high return on having like a second person just the way we talked about it, like, or second or third person because you can do more games, right? That's why part of the reason I asked was you trading one at a time, like, there's clearly seemed like there would be like a high ROI in that second person, but it could also take the operation to zero if it's the wrong person, right? So yeah, exactly. You need to find that perfect, you know, trust me. Yeah, I mean, there's people I trust, but it's hard, like, it's a lot of time to learn. Yeah. And then, you know, like, my cousin had his own business, but I think he spends like eight hours a day of trading on Calhchina. And most people that have a regular job aren't then able to devote that time until they kind of realize like, oh, this is actually gonna be very profitable. So how much time do you, I would say I've meant to ask this earlier, how much time like are you usually in front of the, the screen trading or working or otherwise? Maybe split that up in terms of like research if you're doing stuff like preparing and actually then like trading. I think it's gone down a lot as I realized like, okay, this might go away, but it looks like I have some runway with it, but like from September to basically this Super Bowl, I was probably trading like 14 hours today. Like basically I got up, start trading, and then until I went to bed. Now it's like I'm kind of living my life again. And maybe like eight to 10 hours a day, but like there's days where I maybe do like two or three hours just kind of prime time games. - And I just centered around the biggest, whatever events are the day, so it could be like morning, usually probably night, if you know, that's when American sports are. So. - Yeah, maybe there's not many days I've done two or three hours. Like I feel like if I go out with friends or something and like I took the whole evening off, I'll come back at like 11 PM and then I'm up to like 5 AM like trying to do something. I'm like I got to make up for this last time, but. - It's a fun life we live. No, that I mean, yeah, yeah, I think what you said there of like you kind of feel like you have a little extra time. I think that's a tough thing to realize for all of the reasons previously stated, but it's important I think to also, you know, treat this like, I mean, you should always treat stuff as like this specific edge might go away, but never, never let the foam out like, or the putting a dollar amount in your time, which is hard when you're bedding and you know your hourly, like affect your life too much. - Yeah. - I say that as somebody who lets it affect my life too much, but yeah, I think we all did. - Yeah. - But you know, to have people out there might get that. But yeah, I mean, so if you think that this is gonna be around and you know, viable for the next couple of years, you know, where do you, you know, where do you see yourself going the next one to two years? You know, what are you leaning into? Is it sports? Are you doing any non-sport stuff that you think is growing or you know, where do you see yourself spending your time? - It's definitely sports. I would maybe venture into elections, but not like who's gonna win the election, but I did bet and it didn't go well, but on, it was like the New Jersey governor, margin of victory, which is much more like, once the results were coming in, it's much more like, formulaic, you could build a model for, you know, based on the vote percentages and history, like how does it center play out? - I unfortunately knew to the space, made some errors and lost my one trade, I did not in sports, but I think that could be an opportunity, but it's largely sports that I intend to do going forward. - So just do more of the same better each day? - Yeah, basically, I mean, exploring new markets and probably slowly size up, I'm still, I think the largest position I probably ever put on is like $25,000. So pretty, wow, relative to your total PNL, it's pretty crazy, that's the biggest. - Yeah, most of my positions are like a few thousand dollars, maybe five thousand dollars. - So you must not have a lot of losing days then? - Yeah, and I'd say like one in four, one in five days, is that something you sort of like consciously made the decision that just like for my mental health, like my sanity, I'm gonna, because we talked, there's just like one of the first things we talked about in this show is like that the taking high edge plays primarily is what you're interested in, is that something you're trying to change or you're just happy with, obviously you're doing extremely well, you know, like how it is, but you know, the argument would be you can make more money if you take lower edges and more risk and size up and all these things. So how do you think about that, you know, like discussion? - Yeah, I think I'm like slowly trying to increase, but I also think I like the leaderboard, 'cause it makes me competitive. I think if there was no leaderboard and I wasn't like, oh, I'm gonna drop down 100K today, I would go bigger, so I think in that sense, it works against me. But it is also like a mental health thing, like if I had lose, you know, $50,000 in a day, even though like, it's just kind of a drop in the bucket and not that it impact my, like, it shouldn't really impact me that much. It isn't gonna make me almost not wanna trade the next day. And so like that isn't a good thing for me and it's gonna impact my mental health. So I think it's just like slowly getting more comfortable with bigger positions. I'm just very risk averse. Yeah, it's funny. He's just had like a, like if you were just somebody watching, listening who somehow stumbled upon this as normal version, it's like, yeah, I haven't had any big bets, like the biggest bet. I've never done it, like 25,000. It's like, oh, wow, that's really tight. And that's like the, your family leaves you type of bet, like in the normal world. So it's just kind of, it's funny the world we live in. But yeah, I mean, - But it's just relative to the profit, right? Like, you know, you see, a large profit number you expect, you have an idea, and that's why it's fun to do these conversations. You don't know like what, you know, I've raised, you see the final number, right? On the later bird video, I have no idea how they got there. So that's actually really interesting. And the other thing I say is you being manual, I think there's like a sense of like if you are, like down in the dumps, that is worse. Then if you're just like clicking the button and letting the bot run, like my bot doesn't get down in the dumps, you know, it's gonna run the next day, you know. - That's a good point, yep. - Yeah, you have to get, you have to, yeah, the bot loves the gamble. It'll keep going. - It's happening back out there, you know. It's rain, rain, sleet or shine. It's out there. So maybe let's pivot to the questions. I think there was a couple other we had, but I think we'll cover them in the listener questions. So we good to pivot to that. So we have enough time. - Yeah, let's do it. - Okay. We haven't had a technical error and actually quate some time. So it was, it was a me technical error. It was not a clay technical error, but we're back. We were gonna get into the questions. So the first question was from Calvin. Have you ever listed a 99 cent sure thing that ended up getting rules cucked and losing? And are there any markets you avoid entirely because the ambiguous rules that you'd like to see fixed by CalChi before you start trading them? - Yeah, I think I avoid the 99 cent markets. I just don't want that feeling of being wrong and losing the whole position. I've definitely taken some one cent positions. I think it was foster that came on your podcast and had some pretty wise advice on like, you don't really have to be that sure at 1%. And there's definitely times in the past that have been very upset that I didn't take a one cent position when it clearly was good because I was just hesitating. And there's really no reason to hesitate when it's one cent. If you have an inkling that something might be up there. I have gotten rules cucked one time in sports and I ventured into a cricket match and cricket has like a weird rule where if it doesn't go, I literally don't know nothing about cricket, but I think it's like four overs is what it's called. and the match, like it was a Randallay. I think it was like three overs had been completed. And if it didn't get to four by a certain time at night, the match just restarts. So the price is like, and Calcice's rule is that it just settles at 50/50. So the price was like way off. - It's like a twitch. - The price was way off to the sportswalk. So I'm like filling and I'm like, okay, I'm getting filled really fast here. Something must be up. And then I was like, let me rate the rules, figure that out. And it didn't end up costing me too much 'cause I was able to rules cuck some other people on that before it settled. And then golf early on when golf first posted round leader market, this was me taking advantage of the rules. If you had someone tied for the round lead, would just like the no position pays out. One divided by the number of golfers is the S and one minus that is the no. And people I think just thought like each golfer would pay out to one. Some people would think that. So if it was like two people were already tied for the lead, you could just put like no on them at 49 cents. And at worse, it would settle at 50 and like sometimes there might be another guy that would win altogether. So I took advantage of that early on. And then I think people figured that out. And it was like fighting a queue of people to get in there at 49 or 50 cents. Yeah, I definitely saw that one too. And we were in there like, we would always bid 49 especially there. But I kind of was like checking the comments on call sheet. To be like, oh, I'm sure this is something that people are thinking and they'd be like, you know, oh, if so and so win, you know, if so and so ties, like do I make all my money or whatever, that was like the main comment for round leader. And I was like, oh, okay, like, yeah, this is what's happening. That's funny. I probably don't read the comments. And like sometimes I'll do it just for like fun because there can be highly entertaining. But I've actually never really looked at them for like, let me see what other people are thinking around a rule situation. There's great alpha in like number of comments per, you know, like, like, you could do some mathematical formula where it's like spread the market, the number of comments like in where you want to be. Because the comments is like an ultimate tell of where you want to be, you know, more comments is better. And those are, that's even like lower. That makes the couchy discord seem like high brow conversation. What's going on the actual couchy comments section? So yeah, the Kelshi comments section, you feel like, you're like, damn, this is a, this is not something I've been exposed to. It actually, it reminds me of when Fandall DFS way back in day, just had a chat bar on their site. Like, can imagine why that's where the whole site is just chatting. And it was like, you know, like the worst conversation of all time, it would just be like two minutes before lock and be like, the brun, he's out. Yeah, he's just like the most toxic chat all time. So yeah, that's like poker chat. There's a bovada poker was anonymous with a chat. I don't know if you ever played their clip. I did. Yeah. Yeah, when they had the chat and it was anonymous, it was so bad. It was like so. Oh god. So anyway, yeah, keep chat make chats great again. But, uh, yeah, that was, when you said that, it was, it was a good, I mean, golf has had some like weird rules, cookie tight spots. Like I've cocked myself and golf, you know, cocked others. I don't know if I'm net up or down on golf, cucking. I know all that. Anyway, let's, let's, let's the next question. Yeah, I can go to the next one from BHC. And I don't know if you, you know, anybody has, has a comment on this. So this one's a pretty specific one. Yonick center had 88 holds in the last 89 service games versus Zverov. He was serving after change over rest. Books were showing minus 2000. Was this a bedable edge? I, you know, I don't know if I've gotten classified, you know, as tennis sharp, but clearly I was going to say, is this a setup for? I don't know. I think it's actually sort of interesting because I think this is a little bit like in your, I didn't maybe not this specific problem. Like I know you, you know, this is a good one. I like this question and I like, I did think about it a bit. Like the way I would break it down is to go to like, what was he to win each point? So like if it was minus 2000s fair, let's say, which is 95% then he should be about 75% to win each service point. So if I was just going to say, like, oh, I think the books off here, I would, now you have a much bigger sample. Like 90 service games is reasonable, but for something that might be 95% fair, like that's not conclusive. But if you look at all the points he's had on serve against Zebrav, then and you're like, oh, he's won like 85% of those points. And 85 translates to like, you know, a 98% old percentage, then that's probably bedable. So like in these situations, I would kind of go down to like the smallest actionable unit and then build it up from there because it's very hard to just say like, what is he to hold serve? Like that's based on, you know, what is he to win each service point? So let me start there. I think that's fantastic advice because the thing you did there was you increased, you found a way to increase the sample. Like of the, like this is a problem with trends all the time is like people will say, like, you know, you get it all the time with like the master's golf is always the example. Oh, I think I'm like, you know, eight of the labs have done this last year. I can't win the master. But you basically, what you did there was you turned whatever 89 data points into way more than 89 data points. And so that you're going to have more stability, more predictability, just more signal there, you know, in a way to model it. So yeah, it is, it is interesting because that this type of question seems like the type of thing like you do all the time based on, you know, what we've talked about today. Yeah, it's definitely in my wheelhouse. I feel like I'd be like bad at this because I would kind of go out of the zebra sample. I feel like and like basically end up with the books number and like not find any edge. Well, that's why, you know, domain knowledge probably matters. I, I'm guessing the, the answer matters to the extent like matchup stuff matters in tennis. I don't think you are high, John are probably equipped to talk about that. Do you do any tennis clay or? I do do some tennis and like I used to do a bunch of tennis on underdog and prize picks, like I had edges related to tennis. So a little familiar with it, but I'm not an expert. Got it. Just ask Isaac this one. You know, I got it from James. Yeah, he would never take a minus. He probably took the underdog. He's, you know, he's well, we're not this, you know, underdog better. So this one from James and this is a question I had earlier that I figured we could just ask here. What do you think the long term life cycle for a cashier is in regards to regular, regulatory risk, competition, demand, et cetera? And maybe I can just add my part to the question too. Just like broadly, you know, there's, there's news every day about cashier prediction markets and everything. So, you know, that was one thing we didn't talk about in the interview is just like how you're thinking about this industry long term, its viability, all of the parts that James brought up. Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely not like reading all these court cases. I'm like, probably familiar with what's going on. But I guess my point of view is like, let me just keep maximizing. And if it gets shut down, like, I'm just hoping to have made enough money that like long term, I probably want to go into investing in like businesses, probably something local and kind of that be my next ventures. Let me try and build up a physical company and something that's maybe more rewarding than just, you know, printing money from other people losing money. What are the businesses you're interested in? What, what, you know, I obviously maybe it's down the route, but do you have industries that interest you? I don't think the industry necessarily matters just like if it's a product and working with, like, probably would be investing in someone's, you know, existing idea and just working with like a good person and helping them achieve success. And then also, of course, you know, selfishly trying to create profit myself. But I just think that would be a good challenge and the exact business doesn't really matter as long as I'm selling like a net good product or something I believe is a good product or service. That sounds like a better next step than trading mentioned markets or whatever would be next for me. So, I'm hot, hot take, you know, I love zero some game. I'm going to come out and say it. I just can love it. I mean, I can't argue much with the with you there with the poker background into sports, but this is fun, man. You're just, you know the other person's out to kill you and you got to get out there and get out. But another one was, I think this was the one SP maybe reference earlier was J. Dougie's question, how has your strategy changed over the past year as the order book broadly matures and changes? You briefly touched on maybe some of the some of the bots coming into markets that maybe were more manual before, but if you want to elaborate on anything, let me also just bring in. There's one other one very late question from Richard, which is like related to this just so we can answer both as spreads have decreased since the beginning of year and more competition continues to enter. What are some things you've done to address that increase variance and adjust expectations? So I just want to to read his question because I don't think we got that on the dock because it's fairly easy. Good call. Yeah, I think I did touch on it a bit like there's some markets I've kind of exited, but there's been enough new things I found that have made up for that, but for sure over time it's going to get a little more competitive, but that doesn't mean like you can't find really gets spots. So what are some of the metrics or like what helps you decide when to stop like get out of a market? Are you is it like you're not getting filled? Is it you're start losing? Is it something else? Like you just see the order book and it seems like you know bots or tighter spreads or how are you how are you coming up with that decision? Yeah, I think if I'm in there not getting filled because I'm just never the best price and I'm a try for a period of time and like it's you know like sometimes the order book might be cluttered, but like maybe people are like there could be bots, but they're leaving up a wrong price or doing something where you could take and that might be okay or some other scenario where like the volume disappears at points and you can jump in, but if I'm just sitting there not getting filled for 20 minutes I'm out of there. Fair enough. Well, I was also wondering like do you do you feel like the move to to desi sent at certain books? Like I know you do some golf or whatnot, but has that kind of change your your trading at all? Like in any markets where it's been enacted? The only market I saw it was golf and it didn't really so I don't think it's really impacted me, but I definitely didn't understand how people had like a hundred thousand shares with a one cent spread on golf outlets like in the masters. I got I don't know what maybe you could enlighten me there like how that works. I certainly didn't have that in the masters. I would post one side. My thinking was maybe somebody was blocking the penny jumping on the offer because it's still expensive to take so like you could be bidding the no and nobody's going to really take the no. Okay. That's my guess. I don't think I think yeah because that's the thing. It's like even though the book is really tight like you still can't really punish the you know through taking that easily because you still need it to be pretty far off market. So what I found pre-market in the masters more that was easier was like well first of all everybody cute in the masters for like months and then they were just like desiccine you could just penny immediately penny jump them. But but it's like yeah I found I could kind of get short manually at like decent prices pretty easily but as far as like we we would not run the ball on call for that like so we weren't we weren't making either so like both sides and certainly not being a central or 10th of a central one. Yeah it's crazy. Next one from Lemba. What is the what is the now relative importance of being able to derive your own number for sports on sports for prediction markets? How much of if any of your time is spent analyzing the order book flow optimizing sizing and how aggressive do you want to be depending on your number versus the market and the order so I think there's a good question and I think the other part I wanted to add to it is like one thing I didn't ask is you you're in the position screen. All right do you are you also looking at like because that screen you can't see the order book at least like the way I'm thinking about like are you do you have that up on the other screen and you're like here's what I want to post for the order book because I was part of like why my mind was so blown it's like I feel like I would need to see the order book if I was doing it manually are you looking at it two screens and how are you sort of like answer Lemba's question but also how are you weighing the order book information? Yeah so I do have the order book up on another screen for sure yeah it's would be pretty hard without that or you would just randomly be taking when you don't have to and so like I've always kind of like my default is like somewhere between 2000 and 6000 shares is usually like the size I'm posting I think like if I feel having my own number or doesn't have to be my own number but just being very confident in the market number there's certain sports you trade where you feel pretty good like okay it's pregame money line like you feel pretty good that that's the number versus like oh is this guy injured like maybe he's hurt this is what the books are saying but like do they know he's hurt like something like that you like there could be a lot of variance in what the fair price could be and so for something like that I'm gonna downsize because I don't want someone that you know is ahead of me on a feed and know something that like let's say it's tennis and like the player could retire at any second like I don't be sitting there with a big order queue that just then to get taken if he retires and just nibble that if he doesn't so I think like maybe 4000 shares for me is like a good sweet spot of enough that occasionally I'll get taken like in one go and it's just like a wreck but not too much that like like if I was doing 12,000 shares I don't think a wreck's really ever taking like that position versus like sharp yeah you want to you want to post the maximum size of wreck would take the whole thing and not a basically a balance in game I'm curious if that's you know you gave it range yeah I'm sure it's different by market by sport by time of the game you know all sorts of different things I think that's a big part of it you know it's like the size to show yep it's a nice part about being manual I feel like you have you're more in touch with what their head sizes if you're manual yeah I mean you obviously know you know when the position disappears from your resting page like oh I just I just got popped yeah was that good or bad I don't know but you'd be surprised though I'd say like most of the time I get fully filled it's still good like it's pretty rare that um I get fully filled I'm like okay I messed something up there like usually it's I think a lot of times it's someone else making a mistake where they like we're I thought they were on the yes versus the no and that's like probably a sharp person just messed up yeah that's a good point yeah sometimes I'll be like oh I definitely got quartz out there but then you'll like go my favor yeah what it's like someone just like smashed it and then it immediately got better for me I was like you're like I'll be on the phone with my cousin and like that will like you know get popped like twice in a row and it's like the games moving in our favor and we're just like what's going on the quartz that are got bad info yeah yeah you're like you just get like a no Jordan's faith and he just like hits one out of bounds and you're like yeah okay perfect okay let's go to the next one from Benjamin once polymarket fully rolls out to the US will we see competition from Calcice to lower maker and or take your fees if so where do you see the long term equilibrium for fees and rebates in both the high competition and low competition cases and I actually as I was reading this question I actually think you asked and then maybe that was related to the golf question you just asked JP about the one sensor right did you ask a question about like the rebates and all this stuff and how this works yeah I think I asked that and you guys like answered that like they have a whole program but for people basically getting rebates on if they agree to post enough and etc yeah and I know polymarket like which is a reference in this question you know GP you could probably talk to us more if we wanted to get as other you know like rebates incentives you know like liquidity incentives and stuff right now too so yeah poly is like fully their US stuff's fully public I don't like I know sp you checked it out but they have a whole page of it but yeah it's it's kind of a it yeah it's interesting it's definitely - Only a promotional. - The Paulie US, because I did see like I could finally put in limited orders on there, but it's not a desktop, it's not a desktop yet, isn't it? - Yeah, you have to go through the API, the worst. - This is the only way you can place a, like a-- - For a little bit, yeah. - So you couldn't go on like a website and or the app in place, like a limited order? - You can do it on the app, you can do a limited order. - A limited order. - Okay, you can. - Yeah, now you can. But like the first looked at it, we couldn't. - It's not on this phone. - Is a recipe for disaster? - It's for the mind of the man. - I mean, that's the classic, the barrier to entry, you know, creates the edge right of like, you know, so, but okay, let's get back to Benjamin's question. Like, do you have any take on the fees, the direction they go, it sounds like you primarily make you said to avoid the fees. Do you see them ever, you know, getting compressed or do you think this is just sort of the way it is? - I'm not sure they're gonna get compressed because I think it's the wreck that better that you have to cater to. And I don't think they're that price sensitive. Like if you look at sportsbooks, it's not like the sportsbook that, you know, start offering minus 105 is winning. It's like which sportsbook had the best UI? And so I think that will probably carry over, like which prediction market has like a great user experience. And I mean, promo is just probably the other thing from sportsbooks and that's a little weird for prediction markets because like, you know, you're not betting against the house so they can't like boost odds or do stuff like that. But I'm sure they could get creative to appeal to their users. - I think it's like the rebate type of stuff, the rakeback type of stuff is like more the direction they could they could go, right? - Yeah, I guess I always thought of rakeback as such a, you know, like pro, grindy thing versus like, maybe not rakeback, maybe like lost back, you know? - Or like, I mean, I'm pretty sure there's like VIP programs or like similar. - I did see that, but I don't know how you, is that like, how do you qualify for that? - You gotta prime that account, you know? - You don't know, yeah, I actually bet you just, it's just volume based. Like it should, SP, we've always said this, like you should always give like the rewards, you know, probably like it was like with pick six. - The rewards, they were just sending out like the mountain you lose. - Yeah, absolutely. - If you want the ecosystem to go, you need to give the money to the losers and make them like stay in the game, right? - Right, right, right, right. But anyway, I do think there's some kind of VIP thing going on. I don't know. We'll go to next one from Mr. Fox, how much regression clawback from regulation could PMs realistically see from a change in which political party controls Congress and are the White House feels like a genie is out of the bottle without mainstream, Kashi Pali have become, but what actual changes are plausible? You know, you'd said your attitude, it's just, you know, get the money while it's good and you know, not spend two hours discussing it every week, like some people you know. (laughing) You know, any takes on this? - Yeah, I mean, not no strong opinion. I mean, I think just being a more profitable company you have more lobbying dollars, so that should help, but you guys probably more informed than me on this one. - Sadly, probably not. We just really didn't stop us. - You've heard what we know, we say it every week. But yeah, that was my big one was when it was like kind of like ice, ice, you know, the exchange got involved and some of the people who were actually backing them were serious big companies, you're like, okay, like, I feel more comfortable. They have a little more pop to them right now, like you said, more lobbying dollars. I don't know, just be optimistic I guess. - There's one other late one before we get to, - Yeah. - P-N-H-Q question from Ian. Any advice on overcoming our personal biases, anchor bias, recency bias, revenge trading, disconnecting and staying at peace, stuff like that. Going through my worst drawdown and mentally it's been rough. Mind expects to lose every position with how bad the negative variance has been. Maybe you're not the best to talk about this 'cause you just don't lose, I guess. - No, no. - I guess what you've learned. - It's like, you should try is just don't lose. So maybe the advice is just stop losing. Like do you have any advice for, you know, like, variance the biases that he mentioned and all those, you know, like human elements that make this a challenge? - Yeah, I mean, obviously anyone's been there where it just feels like every, you know, especially in poker, like every time you have a good hand, like you're just getting beat that session. In poker, I found like it was good just to take a little time off and reset. In sports betting, it's a little easier for me to overcome, you know, the mental strain just 'cause I'm confident in my process. So like the best way to start winning is just keep betting. So yeah, if you have a good process, try not to revenge trade, I imagine just going on till, like you gotta try and avoid that. Like, especially in poker, there's a lot of like, reasonably okay poker players that are just horrible poker players because they tilt and that's they just become awful. So I think for a lot of people, like they might be fine sports betters and then they just get unlucky, lose some bets and then start going off the deep end. So like just stick to process if it's a winning process and you'll come out of it. - As any of this like ever been actually challenging for you, like to deal with, like, maybe the answer is I've always just sort of ran pretty well because I'm betting the high edge stuff. But like has any of these biases or heuristics ever been like more challenging you to deal with? - Yeah, I mean, there was a promo draft Kings had for like the Super Bowl and maybe just 2022 or it was like play, I think it was like a million dollars of Blackjack and you got $40,000 in free bets. Or something like that. And I think I started with like $50 hands which like after like it's insane number of hands you have to play. And I was running bad and so I was like, I was doubling that up at some point I started playing like $500 hands. - Just getting over with it. - Yeah, that, it was like a combination of like, I could rationalize it because like, all right, this is taking forever. But also I was running bad and so it was like a little tilty that just increased my size. And I did run bad for that promo. Then I got the free bets and ran pretty bad and those two. So like that was shitty for sure. And like I don't think anyone's immune from like, you know, the downsides when you're having all losing period. But yeah, you just, you have to like not completely go off the deep end but and try and, you know, control the urge to just go crazy to get your money back and just stay disciplined. - Your mind's we have a, you know, pick six at one point was giving a lot of money away, you know, but similar to the, not the same volume and stuff. But similar like you play enough, you get enough money, you get a decent amount of money back. And I remember like, I can't remember where we had to stop it. Like some Starbucks on the road for me to, to put all this stuff in before the game starts. And it's very manual like, you know, like Jack, you're doing it for a while. And then, you know, like you get wiped totally on the day, you get the free money back and you're like, I did all this and wasted all this time. And was it like a Starbucks in Indiana for two hours to like lose $20,000? Like what is the point of any of this? So I can relate with that black check story. - One thing I say to Ian, because like, I think like we've all been there where we feel like, it's a lose money button like every time you click, bad or click call or click whatever, it's just, you know it's just destiny. You're sending your money to somebody else. And like, I think one thing that helps is, it's like so cliche, but sizing down a little bit. Because what you're trying to get over is not necessarily like getting your money back, but you're trying to reset your brain. To believe that you can win and you have a good process. So I like sizing down, seeing stuff go through the hoop and it takes some of your emotion out if like it's a smaller size. Obviously, you know, the thing working against you is you're like, wow, I really need to get this back. Oh, oh, sweet. I've won the small bet like, I don't care, you know, fuck me, you know, blah blah blah. But I do think like sizing down and seeing stuff go through the hoop is, is, works for me. All right, last question from Pina. This is our, you know, question that really makes us think here. So say your, this is from him. Say your five nine for the purposes of this question. Anything Clay, you, you follow it up to confirm you are five nine. Is that correct? Five nine on my ins profile of real life. Probably five eight. All right, we'll go with that. Inj Clay. (laughing) the listed height of 5.9. So this doesn't even have to be a thought experiment for you. Say you're 5.9 for the purposes of the question. You can spin a wheel that has a 65% chance of increasing your height by 3 inches, but it has a 35% chance of decreasing it by 2 inches. You can spin the wheel up to three times. Do you spin it once? And if it goes shorter, do you spin it again? What about a third time? So basically walk me through clay like your thought process, the decision branch here, whether you're spinning it at all. And if it goes, you know, up or down, are you spinning it again and sort of the branch of what's happening here? Yeah, I think it's a pretty clear you got to spin it once because the downside of 5.7 doesn't seem that bad versus the upside of 6 foot. At least, I think it kind of depends where you are in your life, too. Like, you know, that's a good point. As a single gentleman, I think it could be pretty helpful to get to 6 feet. Or if I was like a kid trying to, you know, like a really good basketball player, but I'm 5.9 and maybe I can make it pro if I got to 6.3, then I'm probably in a spin it twice, hoping that I, you know, get lucky twice. That was my favorite answer on Twitter. Someone was like, I'm going, "Wenby or bus?" I think it was "Wenby or flop." Same thing, same thing. Now I'm just going to get a little flop. But yeah, I have to think about that. Like, there is a certain point you get told enough, like it starts making you a lot of money in sports. I'll let you go on and say, I think if you do lose, though, the first spin, so now you're 5.7, I think I'm stopping there because, well, you could win twice in a row, but I think 5.5 to me just sounds significantly worse and getting to 5.10 doesn't seem as big of an upside. Yeah, I mean, you are well suited to answer this question because, you know, I, me and G.P. have been off the market, you know, off the dating apps for a while. But I know about 6.5. No, no, I mean, I hear that this is a, you know, like a big thing on the dating apps. Like, you can literally filter by height these days, which I don't know if that's true or I'm seeing things that aren't true, but I don't know. You've been off the market for a while then. Yeah, you could definitely get filtered by it. Okay, so yeah, I mean, I think you would need some empirical data. Like, ideally, you would reach out to, you know, hinge and say, like, what are people filtering by? If there's not a big distribution of incremental from 5.5 to 5.7, then like, you just, you just got to keep rolling it and hope you don't end up 5.3 or whatever. Just like pray, pray you down. But I feel like it is a key number. Yeah, it's like six feet. It's the big one. It's in football. But you don't even really have to be six feet. Like, I think once you get to 5.10, you could just say you're six foot. Honestly, 10. No, because I'm 5.10 and I don't think anyone would believe I'm six feet. So I don't know, but here's what I think. Like, the risk of ruined on this is like, incredibly low. I assume if you go negative, high, you die or something, you can only roll three times. You can only roll three. Yeah. You can actually go. I'm going to be a bus. That's a damn it. No, 5.9 though, like, is I wouldn't say like someone who's 5.9 is like short. No, you know, like, if you if you bust a couple, like, you're, you're short. What do you think, you know, like the, the, on the dating apps, like, you think most people are setting it like six foot? Is that, is that like the, I think most guys probably do an enter to up. No, I mean, like, what are like, the women, like, what do you think the women? I think there's definitely a lot that, you know, filter six feet enough, but, I mean, kind of, it's fine. Like, if it's a, if it's a girl that's taller than me, like, that's, that's fine. It's like, you know, a five five woman that's, you know, rolling out someone at five nine that, that's the tougher pill to swallow and say where it's like, I would be in that market. But, uh, well, I'm sure we have a lot of women listeners. So why don't we just pull, pull them with what, what, like, we should be optimizing for here, you know, like, what, yes, yes. There you go. I don't know. Wait, SP, are you spending the wheel? I think it depends a ton on your, your life circus. It was like, you know, no, I am not today. But, you know, like, single on the apps, you know, like, I probably am spending the wheel. Yeah. I, probably, yeah, to me, five, seven and five nine in my head is like not really a big difference. But you're stopping if you lose the first one. I think five five is, I agree. He's tough, tougher. Yeah. Yeah. Because like at five seven, you're, you're still taller than basically, you know, probably, I don't know the exact percentage, but the past majority of women, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah. At five, five years, I think. I think. I'm definitely rolling once. And if I'm, you know, I'm, I'm playing with house money. Like, if I roll and I hit, I'm rolling again. You know, no, you are. Yeah. Yeah. You're rolling. Yeah. What? If you hit six feet, you roll again. You'd be sorry. You're so, yeah. Or no, no, you would have five, 10. Yeah. Yeah. You gain, yeah. Okay. You're saying you roll again. If you lose the first one and you hit the second, if I roll and I get taller and I'm now six feet, I'm rolling again. Because the worst case in area, I go back down to five nine and then I just roll again. Or I go to five 10. I roll again. Six feet is the key number. Yeah. That's the thing. You're like, it's honestly fair. That's probably correct. That's correct. I definitely stop at six feet. Yeah. I think roll, stop at six feet. If I'm like in my 20s single, yeah, probably. And then don't want to go below five seven probably. Yeah, I think that's probably smart. Okay. Well, the Mr. Peter question of the week has a, I guess it's a sponsor. I think he come up with these himself or he comes up. He confirmed us in chat. It was like he came up with it himself. No way. I created. He was very, you know, full of transparency. He was very critical on himself of last week. Because, you know, he said it was too easy because we both work from home. It was about like driving or riding in a car. So he brought his day game. I would take it with this. It was the good lunch better. So appreciate him for this. We've, I enjoy this a lot. All right. Well, now we have our kind of other. So now we have three kind of stalwart questions where it's like the Mr. Peanut Butter question of the week. Then we have what's a hot take that you have that most of sharp gambling or production market Twitter would disagree with. And then we can get to the Bayesian update. But do you have a, you have a hot take for us? Yeah. So this is one I've heard on podcasts a lot where it's like, oh, you know, you should get stiffed a good amount. And this is from someone that doesn't, you know, have partners. But I disagree with that. I think you don't want to get stiffed almost ever maybe that's going to cost you money. But like you're going to save yourself the mental frustration of like just getting super pissed off at someone. And then the other main reason is like I'd rather give up money to not have like a scumbag make money. Like I don't want to, you know, give money to a scammer. Like that pisses me off the most. A lot of the people that stiff you that like go on to lose that money somewhere else. So nobody, so it's not like you have the money or they have the money like a casino has the money money. I guess that's fair. But I don't want them winning at all. Fair enough. Yeah. The mental English of a stiff is certainly the probably the worst part of it. Especially because like it's so rare you get money back from a stiff. So you spend all this time like worrying about it or like trying to like is you don't want it. You're like, oh, should I like grip this person new one? It's like no, I want them to pay me back. And then you have to get into this whole like dance. And if you call them out publicly, then they're not going to pay you back. But you want, you know, it is like a, it becomes like a big time suck and energy suck. I agree with that. But as somebody who has said that on podcasts, I'll still say like we in the old version of betting, like I still think you have to get stiff a little bit. Now with prediction markets, like I definitely hope I'm not going to get stiff like this year. But you know, certainly in the old old version like every year, I assume I'm getting stiff like a couple of times. And yeah, bite the bullet. Fair enough. To the to the Bayesian update, you want I can give mine quick first. I had two jot it down. One of mine was on the red blue button debate. But I think that's that's well-trot and at this point. So we won't get into that. My actual one I want to give is on hobbies. So I've come to realize like almost all of the fun in a hobby is like in the, I would say like the first 70% of like learning or mastering the skill, like I'm talking about like skill type hobbies, when like any of those things. And so. I think to optimize life enjoyment, you should be picking up hobbies and putting them down right when you're basically getting to the stages where it's mastery. So it's like, all the fun is learning, learning curve you learn so much early. And then I think of GP and his golf. He's out there grinding to get so marginally better at golf. There's no fun in that. He doesn't have a smile on his face while he's out there. There's no way. It's like an absolute grind. He thinks himself every time he comes out the course. So the optimal way is like, you're talking about golf before a show. Get reasonably okay at golf so that you can hack it around or whatever hobby. And then just stop. Don't try and get any better. Just accept that's what, and go do some other hobby. That's like optimal life enjoyment. I just agree. But. I had that happen. I got really into pickleball. It was so much fun. And then you reach a plateau. And it's just like, you're probably not going to play the very best most times you go out there. So you're just kind of pissed off. And it's like a lot less fun. But so I can see where you're coming from. Getting about like getting those big, those small really hard fought gains though. Because you just know other people aren't doing that. So I don't know. I mean, yeah, I don't know. Maybe I like the torture of it. But just, yeah, something about like pushing through that when she gets to that part feels pretty good too. Because I was thinking like, oh, I think of a friend of mine or like my cousin who's just like a great musician. I'm like, wow, like he's been playing for all these years. He's like really, really good. And then, you know, at certain point, like I'm like, oh, well, I'm probably that with golf. I'm not amazing. But I'm like, quite good at this point. That's kind of cool to have like one thing. But I think like SP, we talk about this. It's kind of like one of our big differences is like, oh, more of a, you know, go hard into one thing. Yeah. No doubt. No doubt. And I, you know, I think I think like having, I agree with you. Like, if there's one thing that like, you do want to be like a master of something in life. So I do understand that. Like that, that part of it, right? But I think just for general, like life quality, I think people could, I guess might take really as probably as people could use more hobbies and should try more things. Yeah. And you get that from betting. Like you already, you know, you have something you're like mastering. Right. So like, you don't have to master everything. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's, that's fine. My, my Bayesian update is that like sugar is okay. It's not the best. It's not the worst. But I've kind of like every time I've, I basically like, I like sugar, but I don't like drink soda, all slam, you know, an occasional bag of gushers as, as SPS seen. But I just had like this, like, hate myself relationship with sugar. Everybody says it's terrible. It's terrible. But I've just accepted that like a little bit of sugar is okay. I think like all of the people that you think are like the healthiest people in the world and all the athletes, like, I'm sure a lot of them like put maple syrup on their pancakes. And you know what? I'm leaning into just like a moderate amount of sugar, some honey, you know, here and there or like some chocolate or whatever. That's, that's fine. I'm really letting loose. You, you, you've upgraded from the sugar free chocolate mousse or whatever you, you, you said was your like, indulgement to, to, you know, never said that. I said sugar free chocolate. I think I said I like muffin. Just revisionist. Yeah, that is. I told you I had a muffin or something like, or and you were like, that's, you know, stop being a little bitch. Oh, I think, if March on Lynch can, you know, eat a bunch of Skittles on the sideline, you can have some gushers. That's right. Okay. That's right. All right, Clay, do you have an update for us? Yeah, I think my, my update would be regarding workout classes. I was against them. Yes. And now I start going and I throw workout classes. I also have a personal trainer now and I'm pro that too. Yeah, that's also true. Like I used to be like, oh, you just do it on your own, but it's just way more enjoyable in a class and you're like, then I'll push yourself more and meet people and have more phone. What's like you? What's like you? I was going to say, have you taken the dive into a Pilates class? I have done Pilates classes. One of my good friends who is a professional better, but like syndicate, very different sphere. His wife just opened a Pilates studio. So I think I will regularly be attending. Good place for a single guy too. So I'll say like the ratio, I've been pushing for more men in Pilates classes, but it's I'm not going to make a big enough impact where it won't be a great time for you as a single guy. Is that what you're primarily doing? Like I was going to ask, what's the, what's the optimal workout class if people, people should get into one? I've been doing hit classes, which is, I don't know if you guys have heard of like high rocks, it's like similar to CrossFit, like standardized race where you do one kilometer runs followed by something sort of station, whether it's like pushing a sled or doing burpees, something like that. So these classes kind of mimic that. They're high intensity, but they're really good workouts. So that's mostly what I've been doing. I will just give a second update. I think having some sort of like physical goal, like a race or anything or the knee, you know, even the golf, like goal that you have, GP, like I think that is a way to optimize a hobby or something you're into as well, whether it's working out or otherwise, like, you know, trying to get towards something. So I would second that. So yeah, I said, if the golf is like, now I just workout because I want to be better at golf. Like I don't even have to like think about it anymore. It's just like, I'm like, yeah, I need to do this to get better too. So pickleball, it could be you, you know, you could be working out to get better at pickleball class. I think my new thing is tennis, you know, okay. That's hard. I bet it enough that I started, you know, thinking I want to play it. Tent people get it tennis. If you know, it's good at pickleball, yeah, that's why I feel like that's a good spot to get in. Yeah, that's fair. But yeah, that was, that's, that's the show. Clay, thanks for, thanks for coming on. We can, we'll post your, your Twitter on the description. Yeah, but anything you, anywhere, you know, people should find you or, you know, I think the discord shut down. So if you're reaching out to him about the discord, it's not coming back. Sorry, but yeah, sure people, if they want to reach you, hit you up on Twitter. Yeah, they, they can hit me up on Twitter. I'm not super active, but I will read my DMs if it's not just you asking for money. Yeah, we, we actually, I feel like don't get any of those. We isn't like the people who do that, like don't listen to this show. So that's kind of one of the benefits of coming on this show specifically. But yeah, you know, thanks, thanks for coming on. We love having a first time. Yeah, first time. Yes. SP any. No, we're coming. Coming on. We really appreciate that was great. Sweet. Well, we'll, we'll drop all of Clay's links in the description, hit them up on Twitter and see everybody on the next episode. (upbeat music)