Michigan Democrats Feud, Midterm Map Shifts, US-Iran Diplomacy Efforts

How's your Halloween? How is uh, we have so much candy candy and ramen because we give out ramen to ramen. Why do you give out ramen? Because that's what all the kids want. Really? Oh my god. Yeah. One kid goes, Oh, I don't know. Take the ramen because my parents don't want to cook tonight. Democratic Congresswoman Haley Steven switch sides and endorsed the Republican Min Michigan Senate race. She lost the primary Democrat Abdul El Said. Her party is calling her a traitor. So what's behind her change of mind? I'm Layla Faudin. That's Amartina's and this is up first from NPR News. A judge rejected the Justice Department's attempt to block Alaska from certifying its Senate election results. The fight centers on a spoiler candidate with the same name as the Republican incumbent. We'll look at how Alaska and other bred territories became battlegrounds, this election cycle. And Qatar has a new plan on the table to stop Iranian attacks on ships and reopen talks between the U.S. and Iran. Can diplomacy head off another round of war? Stay with us. We've got news you need to start your day. A despicable betrayal. That is how Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is describing the 11th hour drama unfolding in the critical Michigan U.S. Senate race. Yeah, Congresswoman Haley Stevens who lost the Democratic primaries to Abdul El Said has said Sunday she's not only revoking her endorsement of him, she's backing his GOP opponent. MPR Congressional reporter Sam Greenlass has been tracking the story from Michigan joins us now from Ann Arbor. So Sam, I mean, this is the question I think everyone has on their mind. Why is this happening now with just a few hours left in the campaign? Yeah. So we talk about October surprises in campaigns. You don't often get a November surprise, which is exactly what we have here. Stevens endorsed El Said after losing the primary by about a percentage point, but aside from a unity event right after that, they never campaigned together. And recent days, Stevens started ramping up criticism of El Said. The two Democrats traded seething statements and attempted unity appearance for a Sunday souls to the polls event was scheduled at a church in Detroit and then fell apart. And instead of attending that event on Sunday with El Said, she showed up at another Detroit church with his GOP opponent, Mike Rogers. So how is Stevens explaining her reversal? Stevens emerged from that service with Rogers by her side and told reporters her endorsement was a personal decision. I'm not trying to harm anyone. I've worked really hard for Democrats. I'm not turning my back on Democrats. It is this one vote. When you see repeated hate, it's not acceptable. I still love the party. Everyone should be fired up for Democrats. El Said has made comments around Israel that have unsettled some Jewish voters. He's a vocal critic. She's a staunch defender. Stevens says El Said did not do enough to reassure these voters or to disavow rhetoric made by some of his supporters. She says is dangerous. But up to the last minute, multiple Democrats have said publicly that Stevens was affirming to them. She was still backing El Said. And as we talk about campaign rhetoric, I should also note the Rogers campaign has focused its closing argument trying to paint El Said who'd be the first Muslim US Senator as un-American. What has El Said had to say? I was at the Detroit church. I'll say it and Stevens had been slated to attend together. And El Said told reporters there he does not think about Haley Stevens at all. None of this matters. You know what matters? You can go like 15 minutes that way or 15 minutes that way. And there are families who are preparing to send their kids to schools tomorrow that look like they did 50 years ago. They're worried about what they're going to feed their kids for lunch. I have met Democrats who did not support El Said in the primary and struggled with their vote this fall. Now will this latest drama sway a bunch of late deciders? Maybe not? Still this cannot be the closing discussion El Said's campaign was hoping for. Now how are other Democrats and responding to the situation? Holding this seat is key to Democrats retaking the Senate. A lot of them are fuming and have rallied around El Said. Stevens long time Chief of Staff announced he and many staff have now quit saying they're shocked and heartbroken by her actions. And the Michigan Democratic Party chair wrote that Stevens was no longer a member. So this matters because a Senate majority is on the line. But do you think this episode will reverberate beyond Tuesday in any way? This turmoil re-expose fault lines within the party that have been deepening all year, not just over Israel, but about the party's identity going forward. Even if Democrats reclaim one or both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, that won't resolve these questions. So this debate is going to continue, especially as Democrats prepare to choose a presidential nominee in 2028. One of the earliest primary states to weigh in will be Michigan. That is MPR congressional reporter Sam Green. Last thanks a lot Sam. You're welcome. Michigan is obviously not the only hotly contested race that'll be decided by voters this week. Well, there are plenty of warning signs for Republicans. Many key races also appear to be very close. MPR senior political correspondent Tamar Keith is following all the twists and turns joins us now. So, Tamar, let's start with the Alaska Senate race where the double Dan Sullivan drama is at a fever pitch. What's the latest there? Yeah, a US district judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that had tried to block the certification of the results of that race. If the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan doesn't win, DOJ tried to argue a second Daniel Sullivan on the ballot with confused voters. The Justice Department is appealing. That's the legal side of things in terms of politics. It is an open question of whether Alaska voters will punish the Democrat in that race. Mary Peltola for the whole Dan Sullivan situation. The New York Times tied her campaign to getting Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot, but Peltola denies it. President Trump and Republicans are making a very big deal of it though. Yeah, so more broadly, what's the political environment looking like as the election season winds down? Voters are unhappy and that has taken an election that was on favorable ground for Republicans between a Senate map that runs through red states and all the gerrymandering in House districts and moved it into a very uncomfortable place for the president and his party. The average price of regular gasoline is over $4 a gallon. Inflation is up, people are worried about artificial intelligence and data centers. The war with Iran is unpopular and looming over everything and voters are increasingly voicing concerns about corruption. The message from Democrats is if you're unhappy, give us a chance to force change. And the pitch for Republicans is summed up by House Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday is this is a contrast election between common sense and crazy. But midterms aren't usually about contrast. They are almost always referendums on the president and his party. So what does that referendum look like on the ground? All year, Democrats have been more motivated to vote than Republicans and we're seeing that reflected in early voting data. The nonpartisan groups that rate races have continued moving their ratings toward Democrats. There are House battlegrounds in districts where President Trump won by 10 points or more just two years ago. And in the Senate, states like Kansas and South Carolina could be in play. Iowa and Ohio and Alaska are toss ups and Republicans are left putting a lot of hope in the bad blood among Democrats in Michigan giving their candidate a better chance there. So how is that president Trump closing out the election? You know, he's actually set to deliver remarks this afternoon at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. According to a White House official, it's going to be sort of a combo closing argument and update on his projects in Washington, D.C. And a reminder that the reflecting pool was at the heart of controversy over the summer after Trump hastily restored it and then blamed vandals when the restoration went south. The Justice Department tried to prosecute people before having to admit that the damage was actually the result of a rushed and botched job. It's fixed again, but remains a glaring symbol of Trump's focus on aesthetics. You know, this is just a strange choice of venue at a time when a majority of voters say the president hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems. That's MPR's Tamara Keith. Tam, thank you very much. You're welcome. After Tuesday's elections, president Trump could decide to bomb Iran again. It's an option he's floated in one that's been discussed with Israel. But he hasn't yet made a decision. The uncertainty about the possibility of a new round of attacks on Iran has US partners in the Gulf on edge and bracing for more war. Join us from Bahrain is MPR International Correspondence. I have a trowey. So Qatar has been leading intense negotiations over the past 72 hours with Iran to try and stave off another round of fighting. How's that been going? Yeah, and we've been here before, right? So Qatar is tight-lipped, but the Iranians are making statements. They say that there is a two-day plan on the table to halt attacks on ships in the straight of her moves and to restart talks again between the US and Iran directly. But Iran says what comes next hinges on the US response to what's in this latest offer. And President Trump over the weekend was at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, and he told reporters that the US had already taken out Iran's navy and air force in nuclear sites. But he said there were still one or more or two sites to take care of, and that this could be done in, quote, 10 minutes. minutes. But the view from the Gulf is that attacks will wreak more havoc on the region and world energy supplies. I was at a security summit over the weekend in Bahrain and here's what senior UAE diplomat Anwar Gargaj said. Military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution. So this idea that this is not going to lead to a quick off-ramp by more military strikes was echoed by other senior Arab officials at the summit. You know, these U.S. partners want to see more pressure on Iran, but not more strikes. "Mention that you're in Bahrain right now. That's a country that's really been hit hard by Iran in this war. What are you seeing there?" Yeah, and Bahrain is a small island nation in the Persian Gulf with Iran to its, you know, east and much bigger neighbor there. And it's home to the U.S. Navy's fifth fleet. But on the first day of this war, when U.S. strikes hit Iran and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, Iran hit back at U.S. military sites across the region, including the fifth fleet here. And you can't take pictures of the damage. It's illegal here to do that, but I rode right past the logistics hub of the fifth fleet. And this is what I saw from the car on the highway. From the highway, you can literally see a radar that's been damaged. You can see what looks like some kind of storage facilities or some kind of warehouses that have been badly hit. They look charred. And it's all there. The damage is just there. And A, this base is now down to a skeleton staff from what was 8,000 military personnel here before the war. Wow. Now, given that it is very unpredictable right now, and no one knows what President Trump is going to do. How are Gulf countries dealing with this? So, you have Arab states upping their radar systems and racing to purchase new technology, not just traditional interceptors that are running low, but you know, they're looking for things that can more cheaply shoot down Iranian drones and crews and ballistic missiles. But they are also talking directly with Iran. There was a visit last week to Tehran from the Saudis, Pakistanis, and Turks. They have a new defense alliance, those three countries. And they made clear to Iran that they want de-escalation and dialogue, not more war. So again, these Gulf Arab states, they want U.S. pressure on Iran. Think of like U.S. economic sanctions, but they do not want a return to war with Iran. And Iran has about powerful counter strikes if it's hit. That's M.P.R.'s Ayah Batrawi in Manama Bahrain. Thank you very much, Ayah. Thanks, Ayah. Don't forget to tune in to this week's Sunday story for an election primer. We're halfway through Trump's final term in office, and he sits at a near historic low approval rating. Republican redistricting efforts may fall short as voters shift away from the President and his party. These new lines were drawn based on President Trump's 2024 base. And since then, key components of that base he built have soured on him. This week, dissatisfied voters take to the ballot to decide the future of America. Listen to yesterday's episode of the Sunday story right now in M.P.R.'s Up First Podcast. And that's up first for Monday, November 2nd, Ami Martinez. And I'm Leyla Faldon. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Bresslow, Brett Neely, Miguel Macias, Hamid Alvardici, and Taylor Rainey. It was produced by Ziyad Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hainas. Our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.