Meta Beats. Microsoft Misses. Why Amazon Matters Most

This week, Meta beat earnings and the stock shot up 10% Microsoft missed and dropped more than 10% taking down just about every software company with it, which actually makes sense advertising's bounce back, everyone's worried AI is going to replace legacy software. There was one highlight from Microsoft, their cloud usage is picking up even though their margins are falling and CapEx spending on AI has absolutely exploded. When you think AI and cloud and infrastructure that isn't Microsoft or Google, one company comes to mind. Amazon. Next week, they post their earnings and we're going to see if AWS demand is accelerating again and maybe we'll get some insight on that $50 billion investment that Amazon could make in open AI. Today on Dummoney, why Amazon might be the cleanest way to invest in AI and why Amazon earnings are the ones that really matter. This is Dummoney, live. Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dummoney. Welcome to Dummoney Live, quick reminder, smash the like button for the almighty algorithm. We are now three shows in three weeks. I think that deserves a like and while you're at it, go ahead and give us a repost on X, which I see Chris. You have already remembered to do. People in the comments this morning wanted to make sure we reminded you of that. And also for those who are betting on the prediction markets as to what color hat Jordan would be wearing, if you are guessing green, you're wrong, it looks, it looks like a black hat today. Now, you can't wear a green hat before the master's, that's the, that's the rule. And no white pants before Labor Day or after Labor Day or something. Yeah. Is it the two rules I live by? And if, if you take off your hat or if we get a hundred likes, you might take off your hat. I will not. Chris, that is all of our. I'm going to have to be right here today. So that's not going to happen. You didn't, he didn't polish the old chrome dome. Easy. Alright, it's a Friday show, a Friday, a free for all. We will probably have some time for, for comments later on, but we do need to talk about Amazon earnings, which are next week. It's the one that, that I think that the three of us are kind of keeping our eye on just because it's not, we, Amazon's not just a, you know, the place where I buy absolutely everything I buy, but it is the place where internet, where the internet happens and where AI is, is kind of, I don't know, it's, it's the birthplace of, not the birthplace, but the hosting place of AI. I don't know what I'm talking about. No one knows. Dave, this is what happens when you move to Mexico. Dave's losing his mind slowly a little bit at a time slow it first and then all at once. I love it that we're sitting here in 2026 waiting on the big Amazon pop after this stock has just been trending sideways amazingly through the entire AI cycle, which is just quite honestly astonishing to me. That is exactly. Not two active sellers in the market, no matter what, right? And so that's the, that's the rub of Amazon. That's why Amazon is really hard. You got one guy that's trying to fund outer space and yachts and then you've got, and then you've got another lady who wants to donate it all to charity and that's fine. That's fine. But it does mean that there is an active seller in the market. Jordan, you just nailed it, but that's, that's what makes Amazon such a great investment is that we have this multi-year cycle with the two of the biggest shareholders continuing to exit out of the company for reasons that have nothing to do with the company. No, I think the performance. That's one of the hardest things about Amazon too, right, is that you know there's like, there's just constant selling and it doesn't matter if the company's doing well or poorly, it's just going to be there. That's a benefit to investors though. That is an absolute benefit to long-term investors because it essentially puts an artificial like headwind on the stock, which I love because we talk about this over and over and over again. You could not wish for anything more as an investor in a company that you want to invest in than it to be artificially held down for a prolonged period of time to give you more of an opportunity to accumulate a position at prices that are lower than they should be. I love it. I love it. And I'll continue to trade earnings on Amazon and lose money if I have to because long term, I'm going to make it all back timespots because of that artificial headwind. That will eventually start to dissipate. So, let's talk about it. Before we talk about Amazon, let's talk about Microsoft. Because Microsoft, here's what it all comes down to. Two things. Yes, they got crushed yesterday on earnings. But the reason they got crushed is primarily due to the fact that, one, they have been transitioning a chunk of their compute from revenue-generative compute to internal compute that doesn't generate revenue that's more long-term cited for the company. Now you can agree or disagree with that strategy. But in the short term, that strategy is not awesome for Microsoft revenue and profits specifically. Number two, Microsoft came out yesterday and essentially disclosed that they have a massive concentration around one client in terms of its future compute revenue. And that one client has a dark shadow over their company right now. It's OAI. And you do not want to come out this week out of all weeks and say that roughly half of your future AI revenue is pinned on a company that a lot of institutions feel is at risk of being overlevered and not meeting their obligations. In fact, I've spoken to a number of people this week that feel, and I'm not sure I totally agree with this, but a number of people that are heavy hitters institutionally, especially coming out of Davos, the word was that OAI is at risk later this year. And they have a very short window of time to raise a meaningful amount of capital. Otherwise, no one is going to have faith that they're going to meet these obligations, going into 27 and 28 that they have made in terms of spend levels of compute. And there is no bigger risk anywhere than Microsoft if that happens. And that's why you saw Microsoft stop, get hit this week, it deserved it this week. That said, we also saw that there is a hundred billion dollar funding around in the works. Amazon is potentially leading that round, but fifty billion dollar investment will talk about that. But that's one of the big headlines for OpenAI, by the way, is that people were like, hey, they either have to raise money or something's going to happen because they've got about a year runway left. And so this is very positive for OpenAI. This story actually is more positive for Amazon than anyone else. So I want to talk about that in a few minutes, but I think OAI is going to be okay. But they are at risk because they are overextended. They made commitments that are outlandish, that are theoretically possible to execute on, but it's going to be really tough because they need a combination of massive private fundraising. They need a hyper successful IPO, and they need to maintain their position as the number one consumer AI app, which by the way, as of today, they are still number one in turn on the app chart. So every day, more people, at least in terms of pure app downloads, are downloading chat GPT over Gemini and any of the others. In fact, it looks like over all the others combined. So all this concern around OAI losing market share is ridiculous because as we've been saying over the past 18 months, they were never going to keep 85% market share globally of consumer AI. That's insane. We always thought they would end up with somewhere between 30 and 60% of the consumer AI market. Now that Google is aggressively marketing Gemini, listen, even for every, it used to be like every new person that Gemini got, OAI would get, I don't know, 15, now for every new person that Gemini gets, they get like five or six. So, they're narrowing the gap, but chat GPT for nearly every normie in the world is the only AI that they've ever heard. I'm so glad you said that, they've got two things going for them. One is fundraising and two is the normies. The normies love smoke an AI. And Jordan, they also have massive amounts of revenue. Let's not forget about two, they're hitting like what, I mean, the revenue numbers are through the roof. No one is monetizing AI like OAI is, no one's coming even remotely close. So they are still in the pole position, not just to raise rounds like this $100 billion funding round, but to potentially have a hyper successful IPO is long as they could maintain that leadership position and they could split it with Google, that's fine, on consumer AI. And by the way, even on commercial adoption of AI, OAI is still a monster. They're still splitting the market within Thropic and Google enumerous other smaller AI firms that are focused on the enterprise markets. So they're still doing okay. It's just that anthropic is doing insanely well with the commercial market. So there's a lot going on here, but it all basically points to Amazon. So let's talk about this guys. This is the most exciting week I think ever for Amazon and as far as I'm concerned in years, and I'll tell you guys why in a minute, but how do you guys feel before I get into my whole spiel on Amazon, how do you guys feel about this whole situation going into earnings next week? And just Amazon generally, Amazon generally with the AI trade. Yeah, I mean, I don't think there's anything negative for Amazon with the AI trade. It's just the standard place that people are going to go to host their AI. Now, open AI is not hosted on Amazon completely. They've got some. We know that anthropic has a lot of hosting at Amazon. And anyone that's building, I think that that's the default place to go. They also have the capacity to where Microsoft grew their cloud 37% quarter, year over year last quarter. I think Amazon could be more, they're not, you know, they're not cannibalizing their own compute. They're selling everything. Yeah, I'm fully on board with Amazon into earns. It's one of my top holdings always anyway, but I'm really feeling good about their earnings this time around, but it really all does come down to AWS. And, you know, are they going to be able to put up numbers that will keep the market happy? I don't care if they miss earnings for some odd reason. It will just motivate me to work harder this year to make more money to double down on Amazon. I hope they miss earnings as far as I'm concerned, okay? I hope I lose money on Amazon next week because I will work my tail off to generate more income to double down on Amazon. Let's just talk about Anthropic, the hottest AI company in the world. I have, this has been a hell of a two week period for Anthropic. Their new models, their swarm, agentic model, right, taking over enterprise AI right now. It seems like every dev in the world cannot stop talking about how phenomenal Anthropic is at the moment to code on to just utilize in ways that they didn't think was possible even a few months ago. Let's remind everyone that Amazon owns something like 15%, maybe as high as 18 or 19% of Anthropic. Also Amazon has basically put a big chunk of its compute future in the bucket of Anthropic success, and now that we're seeing Anthropic success, Amazon essentially integrated their training chips with Anthropic's models over the past couple of years. They've been trying to bring on these new data centers and bring on these training chips to power the inference and the training for Anthropic. They just had a big data center, I think come online here in the last few months. The big issue for Amazon this last year are the delays in bringing compute online, and we know that once they're able to bring that compute online, that Anthropic is going to take as much of it as they can. Now, there's been a big question. Does Anthropic have the ability to continue raising capital to pay the big bills at Amazon for all that compute? Well, what do we see this week? Anthropic was raising $10 billion at a $350 billion valuation. It was so over-subscribed that now they're raising $20 billion. Guys, I must have received 40 text from investors in my network. A lot of them institutional, asking me if I had a direct into this round. I have never seen other than when OAI had its big moment last year, so much institutional and retail demand for an AI company as I've seen this last week with Anthropic. Here's all that money going. A lot of it is going to end up in Amazon's pockets. Not only do they own 15% of Anthropic, but a lot of the compute that has brought up a lot of the Chris, I think, most of it. I had to guess the number. It's somewhere around two thirds of that will end up going to compute. And now the rumors are starting to swirl about Anthropic's IPO, which could end up being massive, and who's that going to benefit, maybe more than anybody else, Amazon, okay? So that is just like one massive tailwind, and it's honestly stunning to me that the market has not recognized that over the last two weeks. How are they not connecting the dots? How are they not putting the pieces together? It is just unbelievable to me. There is so much noise in this market between the Fed chair and everything going on that investors just lost the narrative of what really matters here. Amazon is in the driver's seat. And by the way, this narrative is going to keep getting better. As we go through this episode, everything we talk about here is almost going to be stunningly positive for Amazon as far as I'm concerned. So they have the share of Anthropic that looks like it's going to be maybe a trillion dollar IPO by the time we're done with this, who the hell knows, okay? So that could be, that could be just a quick couple hundred billion of value that Amazon gets to mark up right there. On top of that, we now have a company that looks like it's going to have endless amounts of funding to spend on compute. A lot of that compute's going to be with Amazon. We have this huge investment that Amazon has made in their Traenium chips and Anthropic to basically integrate those two worlds so that Anthropics models are essentially synthesized for these Traenium chips. So all the investment that Amazon has made, that everyone's been kind of laughing at them because Traenium, you know, Jordan, you could maybe help explain how this works on the chip side. So using like Nvidia's chips, it's kind of more, they're a bit more fine tune for certain things, right? And for good or bad, Amazon made a big bet on Anthropic and it looks like it's working out right now. So all of a sudden we have a future here that's really exciting for Traenium and Amazon specifically for Anthropic, okay? Now, one of all, by the way, the Amazon data centers are finally starting to come online. That's something we've been waiting on for a long time and that has hit the stock this last year because every single earnings quarter, Amazon has come out and said, hey, we have more demand than supply. We're trying really hard to increase our compute for our clients, but it's taking longer and the stock he's getting hit and hit and hit and I'm like, guys, it might take longer, but it's going to happen. It's going to happen, okay? It's just taking longer, but I think maybe the biggest Amazon trade that we are going to see this decade, this decade is the AI efficiency wave. The AI efficiency wave is the next mega cycle in AI, okay? We saw the AI picks and shovels wave, that's still happening, by the way, but the AI, and by the way, now we're kind of in the middle, I guess we're in the last half of the picks and shovels wave, this is what we did in our episode last week, guys, where we're like, we got to go deep in the supply chain. We got to go deep into who's making the copper sheets that ultimately go into these chipsets and into these server rooms and we have to go into foreign companies to find undiscovered or less discovered trades. Well, I think one of the biggest AI cycles is going to be the AI efficiency wave when AI actually starts generating really meaningful productivity gains and all of the world's biggest companies essentially reduce their cost at a scale that we never thought was possible, a scale that just seems a few years ago unimaginable. And as we've been saying for sure, who's bigger than Amazon to take that? If you think about Amazon at its core, it is two things. It is a pick and shovel and it is the master of efficiency. They've basically, their entire business model has been how efficient can we get at shipping boxes, at building data centers and they're just in the right place to completely own AI. Everything that is positive is in front of Amazon, bringing the data centers online, all the money that Anthropics is going to be making and giving to Amazon, Anthropics' future evaluation at Amazon owns a monstrously big piece of all of this good stuff. The AI efficiency wave, which will not happen quickly, the AI efficiency wave isn't something that's going to come online later this year and be done with two years later. The AI efficiency wave will last for a decade. It's going to be a decade-long tailwind that is going to make companies like Amazon. So unbelievably profitable, it makes my head spin. This is why I've retained Amazon as my number, basically my number one largest position for the last few years because I know it's coming and I have so much patience. I will sit here and wait for it and wait for it and just keep adding and adding to my Amazon position until it hits because I feel inevitable to me. But guys, there is one thing that has kept me up at night when it comes to Amazon and it kind of scares the hell out of me and I think they might have just fixed it yesterday. When I saw the news of the $50 billion investment in an AI, I immediately thought, "Oh my gosh, Amazon has the same concern as me." I was hoping that someone at Amazon had this concern and they had a fix and I believe behind the scenes, this is what it's all about and I don't know that they will ever admit this. But there is a massive risk with OAI and CHATGPT essentially owning what's called it 40, maybe even 50% of consumer AI market share globally. They are getting into the advertising business and when AI gets into the advertising business, if you have 50% of every query in the world able to basically direct link to retail or websites through like a Shopify and circumvent Amazon's ecosystem, that is a massive risk to Amazon's retail business. It honestly has kept me up at night all this last year. I think it's the biggest risk that Amazon has right now and especially with this deal that they did with Shopify with OAI, I'm like, "What happens if every time you make a query, it's a circumvent and it just makes it so easy for you to get that product direct from the end brand?" Here's the thing, look at what Apple did with Google. Google had this massive ecosystem of search marketing, but Apple owned the distribution with the iPhone, okay? iPhone became the number one form of distribution for affluent consumers around the world and Google is now thinking, "Wow, what if Apple comes out with their own search that's not us or moves to someone else's search and implements that on the iPhone since everyone is using mobile less people will be using Google search." So Google did something exceptionally aggressive and they said, "You know what? Apple, we will literally pay you a massive chunk of all the money that we make of all these searches that come off the iPhone, we will just give you that money." I don't know what the percentage is, but it's like what, 30 or 40 or 50 billion dollars a year? Google pays Apple to basically own the distribution to keep Apple out of the search game, out of the advertising game. They basically said, "Apple, we will basically pay you the same amount of money that you would make yourself if you made your own search engine. We will give you all the profits that you would make if you did that yourself." And they've been doing that for years now. It's like a billion dollars a year, but just recently, Apple and Google have kind of flipped the switch where Gemini is going to power Siri and now Apple is paying Gemini a billion dollars a year. It's just a billion here, a billion there. Dave, it's not a billion a year. It's tens of, what are you talking about? It's tens of billions dollars a year is what Google pays Apple, tens of billions. It's not a billion. It's tens of billions. I mean, someone could look it up right now, but it's, I don't know, is it 30 billion? It's an insane amount of money that Google is paying to Apple for the exclusivity in their search. And the deal that Gemini or Google just struck with Apple is essentially a continuation of that deal, because now that we're migrating from traditional search to AI queries, Google is simply saying, "Hey, we want to retain the distribution that happens on, you know, natively on the iPhone." Now, oh, yeah. That number, by the way, is 18 to 20 billion a year, and that was just from, like, 36% of advertising revenue that Google earns from the Safari searches, which is incredible, okay? So, now, OAI is coming out and saying, "Hey, they're presenting a real risk in saying, "Hey, we're going to a query-based world." And because of anti-competitive nature, anti-competitive legislation, it looks like companies like Apple are going to have to open up. So, if OAI has Chatchee PT, and everyone is using Chatchee PT on an Apple iPhone, all of a sudden, it's not the iPhone that is so important. It's the app inside the iPhone. And if Chatchee PT, the app has a stranglehold on consumers, then it is the mechanism inside of Chatchee PT, and where that sends consumers that might matter the most, at least for 40 or 50% of the market, right? Going forward. So, Amazon's looking at that and going, "Wow, is there a chance that we get completely locked out here?" Because, yes, people will still continue to go to Amazon's app, but if everyone is spending the entirety of their life and has an agent that is doing this stuff for them, and their voice chatting to an agent through that ultimately connects to like a Chatchee PT, and that Chatchee PT engine is ultimately connecting you to the end brands, as opposed to, let's say, Amazon. That is a real threat to Amazon's business long-term. So, how does Amazon fix that? We have at OAI and STEM Altman right now, and they are backed into a corner. They made these outlandish commitments. They now have to raise an insane amount of money. There are only so many companies and entities in the world that can choke up 20, 40, 50 billion dollar checks. And Amazon's like, "Hey, Sam, you're in a tight place right now. We could save you. How better if we write you a 50 billion dollar check?" Which is kind of insane. And by the way, I don't think it's a 50 billion dollar check. I guarantee you this thing is going to have a lot of it since like credits, Amazon credits, and things like that. Yeah. Jordan, I think a lot of it's going to come out in phases, but you know what it does? It serves as an anchor for a round that allows a company like OAI to raise a hundred billion dollar round, because everyone is now more comfortable with Amazon backing them, that they're not going to be going away in 12 months. They won't be. What's generally how it works? If you get like, you know, a Googler in Amazon or some big guy like that, taking up half a round, then everybody scrambles to start bringing people in. So, but the thing that actually matters about this 50 billion dollar investment by Amazon into OAI that no one's talking about is the side letter. In fact, the side letter is all that matters. Now, the side letter I bet you has two things in it. I bet you number one, it has an aggressive long-term commitment for OAI to send a portion of its compute needs to Amazon, obviously, and maybe even use training chips in the future to power a meaningful piece of OAI's compute. I think that that's that's number one number two. And by the way, also, I think it's going to become a lot easier to access OAI through Bedrock and all the Amazon cloud services. But number two, I would not be surprised. And I hope that there is a provision in that side letter that essentially forces chat GPT to prioritize Amazon as the purchase vendor of choice via all of these AI queries, right? So, if you're AI querying to buy something, Amazon is going to have very high priority in that ranking system and will not, at a minimum, at an absolute minimum, will definitely not get locked out of that process. So, this could be the most protectionary provision that Amazon could ever wish for. And they have to invest 50 billion. They end up getting 50 billion of OAI. A lot of that 50 billion likely comes back to Amazon in terms of compute, right, Jordan? So, they're going to get a lot of it back. By the way, it's a lot easier if you're trying to come up with some ad network to generate revenue to just use Amazon, but it is to go individually to like other companies or even through Shopify. I mean, it's it's got to be insanely easier to generate revenue that way, right? Yes. Because everything's right there, right? Jordan, so many companies are like you starting to like using Amazon for a big piece of their back end anyway. Amazon's like, listen, guys, we're the one. You can say a lot of things about Amazon. And you know, they're evil empire. We can just get that out of the way. It's evil empire. But the customer experience is so good. You know exactly like when your underpants are going to show up, right? You're like, oh, well, I mean, it's going to show up in 20 minutes. We truck seven. It says the truck seven. You're never going to get that from buying directly from Shopify ever, right? By the way, speaking of underpants, I have worked for years to identify. And you guys know this because we talk about this on our. Dude, you're different. You're in a difference. You're I can't even talk about your hundred dollar underpants. They're $70. And they are the best boxers that had ever been made. In fact, these boxers are so good that I would pay $300 per pair. That's how much. Let me just ask you. Let me get those with some real logo on it and put it in the merch store for sure. Wait, what? I would never box. I'm a boxer brief guy. Boxer. I don't care. They make boxer briefs, Jordan. I think what I'm trying to tell you is I'm already zoomed. I don't have to think about it. I get my underarmored boxer briefs and show up. They fit perfectly. I don't even think about it anymore. And they're cheap. Okay. Everyone talks about how it's worth it spending crazy money on your on your mattress, because you spend like eight hours a day in your mattress. What's the one thing that you absolutely spend more time with every day than your mattress? They're freaking boxers, dude. You're underworked. I can. What is the one thing where you spend even more time with than your iPhone, your underwear? How can you not want the world's best underwear? I do not understand why anyone would choose me. Mine are great. Like I and I thoroughly enjoy spending time in mine. And I think they probably average out to like 12 bucks a pair. Jordan, you only think that your underwear is great because you have not experienced mine. Okay. I'm 70 dollars. Jordan, my underwear is made of marina wool. And it is, it changed my life. Like it is, it is the most comfortable, the most well-constructed lasts forever, not that that matters because just change out your underwear every once in a while, right? But like it is marina wool stays cool. It's antibacterial. The marina wool is a great material. And I use it for certain things. It's it's unbelievable. You know, I can't even tell you the name. I'm going to pick up a pair right here. What's the brand? What's the brand? Do we even think I should be able to like spout out the brand? I'm so excited. But the brand, I almost don't want to tell, we should get a sponsorship. I know you know, you know, you know, you're a whole gimmick on we don't ever sell anything. And now you spent like 20 minutes selling underwear. We are not getting paid for this. Okay, guys, we are not getting paid for this. And I am only telling you about this because I just reordered some so I don't need to buy anymore for a long time because I'm worried that you're going to go buy them out of stock. We do not. I'm not making one penny off this, but I'm telling you right now. CDLP. Okay, it is a European brand of underwear CDLP. But here's the thing. I'm sorry, I only buy underpants that are made in America, Chris. They have variation. They have levels to CDLP. They have underwear that cost like $25 a pair, but the $70 marino wool pairs are worth every penny. And by the way, this is a affordable luxury. I'm sorry, everybody can afford a few pairs of $70 underwear. Everyone, I don't care who you are. Don't tell me that you cannot afford by one three pack. See how it goes and let me know. I buy a minimum of 10 pair of underwear at a time because you can't three pairs isn't enough. I've got something to say here. You can't switch brand to brand day to day. That'll throw your whole light on balance. You have to have the same. You have to have the same day every day, right? I do. I have nine pairs of pairs. So you're talking a $700 underpants investment just to get started. For something that you wear every hour, I mean, I don't know. Maybe you take them off eight hours a day, but essentially where every minute of your entire life, are you kidding me? This is, this is like, it's not information asymmetry. It's like just psychological asymmetry. We're irrational about this purchase. We should all be spending this much money on our underwear. We all need to spend this much money because it just doesn't make sense not to. If you, by the way, only if you have something that is that much better and I'm telling you, this is that much better. Now, you guys know this. I have rotated through every brand of underwear over the past six, seven years. Did I just say six, seven? Okay. My favorite comments before, by the way, is my kids, my kids would be laughing at you right now. Take your investors and here we are listening to underwear philosophy. I love it. Now, to bring this show, to bring it back to the show, I have not been able to find this brand of underwear on Amazon. So there's that's a problem. Are you sure? I just searched Bible. I see the LP boxer briefs. Because it's a boutique brand. It's a boutique brand. Okay. I'm buying the bamboo ones for like, for 30 bucks. Hey, Jordan, I used to love bamboo until I experienced marine oil. Oh, by the way, I heard bamboo is like a, is a frog. It's like a, it's not real. It's okay. So I, what you, okay, here's the thing about bamboo. It's not a fraud. It's just like these, it's like they manufacture the bamboo. It's not like they're chopping bamboo down and making your underwear. Right. I think it's like turns into like some sort of like synthetic natural combination blend thing. And it's, yeah. Does it matter because you need to be wearing a wool from this point forward. So anyway, now what were we talking about before this whole, we were talking about Amazon and I try to bring it back. And I just have to apologize that I have not been able to follow the conversation. My internet here, the moment we went on, just started going choppy mode. And I assume that you can still see and hear me, but I can, like, I'm getting like every fourth word. So I'm trying to piece together what you're talking about. That's because you're in Mexico. Nobody's complaining about it on the track. So yeah, literally sounds like I'm talking to a robot right now. So okay, but every alcohol concentration I have to be able to understand what you're talking about. But I figured out the underwear thing. I was going to say something important about the actual subject matter of this. So we were talking about integrating open AI into ad results and how it's so much easier using Amazon. Thank you. One way to do everything. Instead of going either manufacturer by manufacturer or, you know, through Shopify and just the experience with Amazon is so much better. So if you're Nike, you're a huge company and you think you know what you're doing, you think you know how to inventory product and ship product and all that stuff. And listen, very few companies in the world are bigger than Nike when it comes to D to see. But your Amazon and you're meeting with Nike and you're like, yeah, you guys think you know what you're doing? We spent a trillion dollars over the last 15 years on infrastructure and distribution. We could take your product from A to Z, deliver to the consumer, cheaper than you can do it yourself, faster than you could do it yourself. We could handle your returns better than you ever could because our consumer, when they want to return a pair of your shoes, they don't even need the box anymore. They just literally take the shoes, take them to take them to Whole Foods and throw them in the window and just tell us their name or show us their phone and we just throw it in a box and we figure it out. They are on another level. So you're right, Jordan. And just paying a small, pie, paying a portion of your sales, you get to get the same experience as the best brands in the world, right? So I would say that the best brands in the world cannot do this as well as Amazon can do it for them. If there's a product that can buy either directly or from Amazon, I buy it from Amazon every time. Just because I know it's going to be easier to return if there's a problem and it's just the piece of mine, like you're saying earlier, Jordan, you know that the Amazon van is four stops away from your house and it will be there the next day. If it really shows and for whatever you ordered, I mean, you can be an insane person and stare at your phone and you know exactly what time it's going to show up. Guys, you know, there's so much going on in the world. All this talk about AI, Nvidia, investors, the Fed, Jay Powell, and people just simply forget how astonishingly insane this company is, Amazon, about the investments they've made over the past 15 years. Could you even imagine once automation starts kicking in, once robotics starts kicking in, who has the money, who has the infrastructure, who has the processes, the structure, who has the balls, to actually like execute on automation the way that Amazon will the next 10 to 15 years with robotics with artificial intelligence. Who has the ability to do this better than Amazon? No one is going to even come close and this is all ahead of us. And you know, the thing about being a social Arab investor or just Arabing anything quite honestly is you have to be patient and you can't be all flustered because I didn't move the way I wanted to move with quarterly earnings or they said something and the market got pissed off and now the stock dropped. Like if you know this is coming, this is a freaking freight train that Amazon is running. Okay. Once this hits, there is no going back. And I have no clue if Wall Street is going to realize this in next week or next quarter or next year or in three years and quite honestly, I don't give a damn. Like I hope that Wall Street continues to like not fully appreciate what is coming with Amazon to give me more time to size up in Amazon. I don't care. Like we've seen this with Big Tech. We saw this with Apple. We saw it with Google, right? We've seen it with all of Big Tech where they ignore it, they ignore it, they ignore it, and then all of a sudden the stock doubles. Okay. Listen, by the way, we're not financial advisors. This is completely just our crazy thesis. These are the investments we're making, but for myself, I have a hard time being more excited about any big cap company the next year. Now is your thesis, though, that Amazon has the possibility of doubling and what's your time frame for that? Well, I don't think about stock price, Dave. It doesn't double. Does it triple? I don't care. I own so much of it. I'm going to be so levered in it every quarter that I'm just going to make ungodly amounts of money from Amazon that I know. And listen, is there an outlier case where something happens and this thesis doesn't play out? Of course there is. There will always be outlier cases. There will always be risk factors that you see and you can't see. So there's no such thing as a short thing, but I think Amazon's the closest thing we have to short thing right now. Like if you're looking out five years, it feels to me like Amazon is the best big cap risk reward that exists in the market today. And it's just I don't understand how one would not want to have meaningful exposure to a company like Amazon. Like I said, there's always risk. I'm willing to take those risks because it really feels asymmetric with Amazon. And by the way, I don't know exactly what the timeline looks like for the market appreciating this, but I'm going to start playing them every quarter, leopard. Listen, I'm the leopard into next week. I got options, guys. I got options. I have call options on Amazon and I'm happy to lose every penny on them. Because I'll just I'll just do double the amount next quarter and then triple the amount next quarter. That's my Amazon thesis. Well, and the other the other thing that Amazon and I know you don't look at stock price, but you do look at stock price and you know that Amazon has basically been flat for the past year. And everything else has been up all the other big tech macro style, you know, the mag seven are all up except for Amazon and Apple. They've they've lagged behind. Yeah. So you have a you have a I think an outsized opportunity of Amazon stock outperforming the others that have already run. It's simply an indication of the under appreciation of the narrative. That's all because the market has become so short term minded that all it cares about is what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days. That's all the market cares about. And I love it. I love it. That the market has become so ADD that you guys just only care about the next 30 to 60 days. Fine. I will take that because I don't care what happens next 30 six years. I do not care what happens during Amazon earnings next week. I mean, I'll be watching them intensely, but but for me, it's a win win. If Amazon knocks it out of the park, it's a win. If something weird happens, it just means it's a bigger win for me at some point in the future. So as long as as long as you still have some sort of income and some ability to continue to dollar cost average or layer in to things that you really believe in, the same way that I did with blue energy when it fell to $77 a share a month ago and I double down and now it's back to $150. As long as you have conviction, conviction is absolutely everything guys. Conviction is everything and I do have conviction with Amazon. Again, not necessarily in the quarter results or how the market's going to react. By the way, can I repeat a quote that I saw? This is Joukin. Joukin's one of my favorite people on X to follow. The quote was skeptics game fame and optimist make money. I read that this morning and I was like, man, that resonates with me. And is there anything more true throughout our entire investment career than optimist make money? And yeah, maybe I'm a little bit optimistic right now on AI on the AI cycle generally long term on Amazon, but I am. So I think that this announcement of a possible investment by Amazon into OpenAI is a big positive for AI in general because you had OpenAI really in a tough spot in the sea. I think that was a big worry for a lot of people that they weren't going to get funding because that caused a big, you know, it's a big negative feel for the market about AI. Jordan, the back channeling conversations and I'm hearing out of Davos is that OAI, and this is a few weeks ago, OAI is potentially in a really big trouble later that's the room. That rumor is then flying around for the last few weeks. So this potentially solves it for them, at least for two years, for two to three years. Yeah, yeah. And it is good. It is good for AI. And listen, the market is jittery. Nobody understands. This is the one thing I love about AI generally. I don't care how smart you are. I don't care how successful you are. How big of a thought leader you are in the AI world if you're a doomer or a non-believer or skeptic. Nobody knows anything when it comes to AI. And I think anyone that's coming out and saying with conviction what's going to happen over some short period of time in this AI cycle has essentially mostly been wrong. Okay. We have seen so many smart people come out and make really strong predictions. And for the most part, they've never played out. And even one of the, I would say the best track records, the people that were behind the AI27 report. Okay. Those are the people that got AI the most right a few years ago. They basically had kind of predicted what was going, what ultimately played out with AI over the past three years. They came out, I think a year ago with this report that pretty much everybody in the sector has read called AI27 or 2027. And it was this doomsday scenario for 2027. It's looking more and more like every prediction that they've made in that report is completely out of whack. And none of it is going to be even remotely correct, at least not anywhere near the timeline that they put out. And we've seen that time and time again, with anyone that talks about AI, you're wrong. You're always wrong. I think probably the best approach when it comes to AI is to have a really long term mindset. I think it's easier to be right in the long term because it just seems more obvious how this is going to play out in the long term, but clueless. Like a jet trying to predict the daily moves of any of these companies is really challenging. But Dave, we've never seen anything like this. In fact, even on the I'll tell you on the negative side of the anthropic, agentic swarms that have all started in the last couple weeks that this is benefit benefited. Was it crowd strike quite a bit? Is that we're seeing massive security risks? On by the way, if you're using these agentic models, do not give them permission to access our techs group plays because that is a massive security risk for all of us. I need to text every techs group I'm in this week to tell. Like, they're just it's too new and these agents are doing things that are unpredictable. So people have to be really careful. So the security they're so much happening with AI security right now that's really interesting. But I would say. Well, that's one of the things that some of these so like anthropic, you can allow it to access your file system and, you know, organize files or, you know, do any sort of action across file systems. You need to know what data you're handing over when you do things like that, right? Yeah. You have so much stored on your computer. And the early reports I saw of people just having their entire hard drive deleted because they didn't know what they were doing. Well, you're a moron, first of all, because especially with Claude, you can tell it specifically what directories or folders or however you want to phrase it, what sections of your hard drive it has access to, right? But you really shouldn't have to tell Claude to not delete the root drive of my computer. Right. You shouldn't have to make that instruction. You should just know that. Well, no, well, maybe, I don't know, it depends on when you tell it. Optimize this computer so that it runs faster. Oh, yeah, you have too much stuff on your hard drive. We're just going to get rid of it. I just know my home folder all the time. I'm staying off that for now because I know that I'll do something dumb and it will just, you're both going to get phone calls from me and I'm going to be trying to like unwind whatever I did. You don't have to worry about it for the text because I have a setting on all my devices that every text that I receive or send auto destructs in 30 days. So for your own text, you only have 30 days of your like, if you if you texted me something 31 days ago, it's gone. Okay. What will hold on? How do I do that? Can you? There's a setting in iMessage. You just do it on e20 your devices that it goes to. So on your phone, on your laptop, just make that setting and they will automatically delete every message after 30 days. Is it an iMessage? Yeah. But how about all the message from you? I'm just scrolling up from October 8th. That's more than 30 days ago. Yes. See, you're you don't have the setting. You got to you got to set it. I have to set it to delete your messages. It is around on my device from Jerry Solano. Like, two years ago. Nice, nice to call Jerry out. I have to say, listen, but how about all the pictures we shared over the last 15 years? That's all my devices. If y'all keep that around, that's your own business, but it's gone. I don't want to delete that. I would rather. I like having control over. And I think that I need my agent in the future to understand the past conversations so that they understand the relationships. Not just what I've done in the last 30 days. I want them to actually understand everything about me so they can just be made. I agree, Dave. And also, even though we all probably did some shady stuff in the pre-me two days on text, I think the world is becoming more. We might have. I don't agree. I think everyone has. I'm just going to say, now, I think the world's become more forgiving and I'm willing to roll the dice because I think, you know, none of it was that bad. I don't like erasing data either Dave. There's no reason. All right. I think I got all my primary ideas out about Amazon. I love Amazon. I mean, Dave, you love Amazon. This goes back. I always love Amazon. I think of Amazon as like a blue chip stock that I will always hold that I use as the basis for margin borrowing against riskier, crazier ideas. Like Amazon, Apple, like those companies are just going to always be in my portfolio. I will always go back to like 2000 and I don't know, 13 or something like that. When Jordan, you know, over the course of a year got me so pumped on Amazon because he was so in the weeds of ADO. He had been in the weeds of AWS since day one. And I was just sitting there listening to Jordan year after year, day after day, talking about how this was revolutionary for every developer in the world and how it was just this is going all this is going back to the tooth out like the mid to the revolutionary because it just it took care of the fundamentals, right? And so you didn't have to deal with any of the stuff. Well, but then I put all this money into Amazon. And of course, we know how that ended up. And I'll never forget looking at speaking to Jordan, we're walking off of Nox street or something. And I was asking Jordan right by our office at ticker tags. And I was like, dude, I am making so much money on that Amazon. Thank you so much. And Jordan looked at me and he was like, I shouldn't have sold it. I was like, what? You want? And Jordan had gotten freaked out over some little thing a couple of years earlier and sold, I don't know if you sold all his Amazon or most of his Amazon. I'm like, dude, you are the reason that I bought Amazon. You are the reason I made all this money. And yet you didn't make the money for yourself. I feel like this is the money on Amazon back then. No, but you were in and out, Jordan, you were in and out, and you miss it out on so much. I'll never forget because it was right after that big Amazon move and you were like, yeah, I'm I miss it because I had sold out. Yeah. Classic. Anyway, all right. Do we have any, okay, robotics update? I know everybody's been asking me about Tesla. I know everybody wants really good news on this. I actually, you know, you saw the Optimus news this week. They're closing down a lot of lines. Yeah, they're stopping the S and the X models. They're going to convert those factories over to Optimus robot production. The market didn't really know how to react to that. That was that was a wild card that hadn't yet been even considered that they'd be that they'd be stopping stopping two of their underperforming vehicles. They're higher end. They don't matter as much. But really, it's an autonomous future and Elon is trying just continuing to position the company as we are autonomous first. We're going to be the robot taxi company. We're going to be the robot company. Here's the thing guys. I'm still hyper optimistic on Optimus long term and Tesla long term. But I do think this week's announcement about shifting those lines to Optimus is one huge smoke screen. First of all, I've seen humanoid production lines. I'm invested in companies that are manufacturing robots every single day. All humanoid robots on a manufacturing line very efficiently. And they do not take up that much space. They are nowhere even remotely close to an automotive manufacturing facility. These are 150 pound pieces of machinery. There is no reason that you would have to make a decision to close down those automotive lines for Optimus lines. By the way, Optimus is not scaling anytime soon, meaningfully. And if you actually read the nuances in Elon's words and the tone, you can tell that nothing meaningful in terms of scalability is happening anytime soon. Why? The same reason I've been giving you guys the last two years. It's not about manufacturing when it comes to humanoids. It's about deployment. Deployment is where the bottlenecks are. It is extraordinarily difficult to deploy generalized robotics into large incumbent companies displacing humans. Why? Because we've never done it before. So when you go from five robots to 500 robots, you find out a hundred new things that you didn't realize were wrong with those robots. And you have to spend a year or two tweaking the bots. Also, there is massive amounts of a change transformation that has to happen at an incumbent company that actually takes years before you can start deploying hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of generalized robots. Which again, no one in the world has ever done before. So we don't even know what we don't know. You guys know that there has been nobody the last four years that has been a bigger Optimus. I'm now saying Optimus on on on generalized robotics and humanoids specifically than me, but the timelines that everyone has today are completely wrong. I promise you, I've been saying this, they are completely wrong. We are not mass deploying and scaling humanoid robots anytime in the immediate future. Come from 3031-32. We're going to start to see that. There's a deployment bottleneck. So I think it was a smoke screen and I do not think this news in and within itself is positive for Tesla. I, along with everyone else, am waiting for Tesla to show us their V3 Optimus. And let's call it April or May of next year from what I understand and I am getting intel about that. It, it seems to me that the actuators that are going to be using in that bot do have supply chain challenges. They're not easily scalable anytime soon. I also don't think the underlying KPIs of these bots are close to where they need to be for scaling. And that includes Tesla. In fact, it includes every single humanoid company on earth. I have a sightline into every single humanoid company on earth. As you guys know, I, you know, I have multiple funds with hundreds of millions of dollars with my LPs invested in the humanoid sector. I have, you know, through my close network, we actually have a current day valuations, billions of dollars invested in the humanoid sector. I think there is no bigger Tam on earth. I think there is no more exciting sector on earth long term. Okay. But people that think we're going to start scaling hundreds of thousands of humanoids here in the next few years. That's just not going to happen. Okay. And I wish investors would realize that because then you're not going to be upset when it doesn't happen. There's, the Tam is big enough trillions trillions that it doesn't need to happen in the next two or three years. So just chill out, let the hardware catch up, even the models, the cutting edge bleeding edge models, whether they're coming from physical intelligence or from Demis hasibis and his team at Google DeepMind. They are accelerating, but they're not there yet. Even Demis came out in the last couple weeks and said, Hey, the moment for humanoid robotics is probably about 18 months away. And I kind of agree with him. What he's seeing is what I'm seeing. I think we're going to have a real, it's, it is taking a little longer than I anticipated. I initially thought we would get there a little bit quicker, but I also understand the reasons why it's taking a little bit longer, and I'm totally fine with them. Again, this has not changed my optimism for the sector. It's just, okay, two questions, Chris, then why are they shutting down manufacturing lines for vehicles? And then also, have you gotten your robot yet? What? Have you gotten your robot yet? Well, that's the thing. So across every single humanoid company, listen, I'm not going to get too into this, but basically what's happening is there are one or two companies and Elon is part of the problem here that have kind of set ridiculous expectations. And so everyone now kind of needs to rush and kind of accelerate faster than they should accelerate. There are a lot of things happening behind the scenes. And the truth is Jordan that none of this is happening as soon as we would like. And I don't think I'm getting that robot as soon as even that company would like to deliver it to me. That's the first question. So why is it? Why would they shut it down if they're not close to putting actual manufacturing of? Is this because they're not-- I don't see the potential of these vehicle sales at all, so they're just going to shut it down. I can't speak to the automotive piece because I'm not an expert as it relates to Tesla's automotive traction. I won't pretend to be. What I would be-- I don't know either, so that's why I will speak to the humanoid piece. I think Elon is really good at keeping people interested and building a narrative and keeping them strung along. So if you can't show something, then you could create a narrative where you don't have to show something. You can say, hey, we're preparing to scale up. That's a positive indicator, okay? We're making major changes to build a factory that can produce a million robots. That's a positive indicator that will help keep investors tuned in, keep investors excited through a transitionary time. And if you're Elon, and a lot of the other CEOs are doing similar things throughout the deep tech sector, this includes small nuclear reactors. We've seen this in a lot of the deep tech sector. You get your money, you keep investors excited, everything takes longer than they thought it was going to take, but then they just deal with it. And at least you got your money. You're in the poll position. Yes, everyone's pissed off. It's taken an extra two years, three years, four years, but you will survive that gap period and you'll be around when the tech catches up and you'll still win. Like Elon did this already with autonomous vehicles, right? So like Elon, as we know, has been saying that, you know, autonomy would have been here eight, nine, ten years ago. Now we're getting extraordinarily close to that being true. And he survived. And as long as he ultimately delivers the goods, everybody will forget about the missed timelines, okay? We always talk about Elon. Elon time is just a complete fantasy world. But I'm optimistic that optimists will be one of the first commercially available robots still. And it's part of my thesis of why I'm so heavily invested in Tesla. But I don't know that they're going to be first. I don't know that they're going to be third. They're just going to be one of the first that delivers robots at scale. It doesn't even matter if they're first, right? So like if you believe that optimists will be a top four global generalized robotics company, that's all you need to know. They don't need to be number one, or two, or three, if they could be a top four company. And this strategy of kind of like floating aggressive timelines that are maybe unrealistic and then nobody hits them. Because it's not that you're not hitting them. It's that no one's hitting them, right? No, and I also think that that aggressive timeline, we won't really know that we're within two to three years of seeing a robot and tell they've taken pre-orders. And we know that Elon's idea of doing the pre-orders, and then you wait multiple years at the pre-order before you may or may not get the product, that's kind of the mode of operating. So I'm not really expecting to have any of the pre-ordered robots that I have signed up for. I'm not expecting this year. I would love to have one, but I'm not expecting it this year. I think the most aggressive timelines that I've seen at humanoid companies that are large as to when they will have a commercially scalable and deployable bot that will meet the KPIs and meet the cost metrics and the hardware is set for commercialization at scale. It's like very late 2027, 2028. If you're talking about commercialized robots for industry, it's very different than a robot. I'm talking about industry. I am talking about industrial, commercial, distribution of bots, which is a multi trillion dollar market. Now the home is probably also that big of a market. But this is what I'm discussing, Dave. But the difference is, having a commercially scalable piece of hardware with a neural net foundation model that can power the brain, where it is meeting the KPIs that you need to do commercial work at scale, at human speed, with low faults, and all the things, doesn't mean you're actually scaling that out because there's deployment challenges. Now it will take multiple years to go from 20 robots in a warehouse to 200 to 2000 because there are just like a hundred other things that have to happen. The operating system, the safety standards, just like there's in every company is different. And by the way, again, we do not have a template for this. So we're learning as we go. And there will be hurdles that none of these companies can foresee today that they will not see until they're actually attempting to deploy robots at scale. That's just that's just a fact that that's the way it's always been throughout all of history. And it's not going to be any different this time, especially when we're dealing with walking, talking robots that have legs and arms and act like humans. I mean, this is one of the hardest things that we have ever pulled off that have an AI brain, okay? Like this is extraordinarily difficult. But the gold at the end of the rainbow for these companies and the people that are invested in these companies is larger than anything that you can comprehend in your mind because we're inventing an infinite labor machine. We're inventing a piece of technology that can not only scale industry infinitely, but can spin up an infinite amount of new industries that could never exist unless you had a reasonably cost infinite labor machine to build those industries. So, so that's why I'm like, don't freak out because things are going to take longer than these ridiculous expectations that Elon has set out and some other CEOs in the space because it will all still be worth it in the end. Can we talk about the Tesla news today, the rumors that Tesla could merge with SpaceX. So, SpaceX is raising capital right now at a 900 billion dollar valuation, right? So, this has been circulating amongst institutional investors. And when you're raising capital, you want to kind of seed in the minds of those investors, something more exciting than the money that they're investing, than the level they're investing at. So, it's no coincidence that as we're starting to see a capital raise come together that we're starting to see, oh, it's a $1.5 trillion IPO coming up or it'll be merged into Tesla. So, if you know it's going to be merged into Tesla, you know that they're not going to merge it at a valuation that wouldn't make sense for people investing today. So, I'm assuming that that is just PR and hype to help this decline the fundraising round. That's my thesis, it's just my thesis, okay? I'm not saying that the company isn't worth the 900 billion or that it is, but I think that's why we're hearing these stories today. You're exhausted, I can tell. Well, in hour and 15 minutes of nonstop talking. But there's so much to talk about. I mean, this is a what a wild time to be an investor. By the way, I'll tell you what I'm talking about. The memory, the memory companies, we haven't talked about gold and silver going crazy and now crashing. I do have some alpha on gold and Bitcoin specifically. I was at a dinner in Austin this week and there were some followers at this dinner and one of them had alpha coming out of the sovereign wealth world and evidently at one of the same dinners a year ago, this individual had communicated to everyone that sovereign wealth was meaningfully under invested in gold and silver, right? And that they were going to become invested in those markets over the course of last year and that that was actually a big part of this run. And now, the latest is that sovereign wealth is now closer to being fully invested in those commodities, but that they are under invested in Bitcoin. So not that they're going to all go out and buy Bitcoin this week. I think Bitcoin's having a hard time with this, I guess, this new Fed share, but that is potentially interesting if you look at Bitcoin going out a year or two if they truly are under invested and the next big thing for them is to get more properly invested into Bitcoin. I think it's an interesting thesis to pay attention to and it caught my attention and I actually might make an investment in Bitcoin here or increase my Bitcoin holding at some point soon because this guy just nailed it a year ago and maybe he's nailed it again with this thesis. So I just want to share that with you guys. What was this conversation? I can't not say who it was with, but I'm just going to say almost died driving on Alaska ice freeway for three hours between Dallas and Austin to make it to this dinner. The entire freeway was iced over. There were 20 foot sheets of ice flying off the top of 18 wheelers, missing my car by a few feet and I'm like, did I'm like driving like this. Dave, it was so you could just know what I was thinking. That seems insane. I shouldn't have done it. Looking back, it was a bad decision, but I did it and you know what? We had the coolest, it was like a six-hour dinner with some guys from New York and Miami and a few from Austin. Just institutional type guys and political representation there too or is this purely on the investment side? There was no politics in this room, but everyone went around and shared their alpha and then my alpha was Solomon shoes in our territory. There was, it was freaking nice. Oh, and looks and looks maxing as a cultural trend anymore. Who the hell is this guy? I'm letting this guy in the room. But I think one guy told me the next morning that one of the guys in the room immediately went out and bought a million dollars next day of a mere sports based on my little pitch. So I really hope earnings turns out well or I'll never get invited to this dinner again as I'm going to say. So that because that was the alpha I shared with the group. Well, the AS trade is actually looking okay at this point. Who knows? Who knows? You know something I talked about Dave this week on X is that company that has between half and 1% owns between half and 1% of anthropic. There's an ADR that trades here in the US, but what's interesting is about 20 to 25% of the value of the company is in anthropic. So I think it's a really clean, I'm sorry, I don't even have the name of the company. Let me pull up my own Ska Telecom. Yeah, so this is basically this company XK Telecom is essentially the AT&T of Korea and they invested I think a hundred million dollars into an anthropic in 2023. I believe that was at a five billion dollar valuation and anthropic is now valued at $350 billion and this little hundred million dollar investment is now worth between two and a half billion dollars, which is close to 25% of the company's market cap. And for a lot of investors that are trying to get exposure to anthropic, this is one way to get exposure without having to invest in an institutional private fund where you're paying fees and carry and then you got to hold the stocks six months after it IPOs. I mean, this is a really fascinating way to talk about the philosophy. Last week on the show, I feel like we did because for some reason I bought it and I can't imagine it was just because I saw your tweet. No, it's because you saw my ex-post. Yeah. And Dave, I'm really trying to retrain myself to not use the word tweet. I feel like it's been X long enough. Yes. I invested a lot of money in this company because I do want to have meaningful exposure to anthropic and I also think this is a pretty cool company because they have a massive partnership with anthropic. They are the primary telecommunications partner of anthropic in that part of the world. They're leaning heavily into AI. So yeah, like I get a piece of this AI-centric telecon company in Korea and I get a really nice chunk of that is anthropic. So if I believe and I do, then anthropic is likely to have an IPO at some point and probably trade up to a trillion dollars, that would triple the value of their. That would basically almost equal the market cap of this entire company today. So this is my way of investing in anthropic. And by the way, I have numerous guys in my network that are asking me to invest in anthropic right now through funds. We're after you trying to get a direct allocation in anthropic. And I'm like, no, no, I'm good. I invested in this random Korean company and I got a big chunk of anthropic through that investment. So I feel like I'm covered. Now, again, this is not investment about this. This is just what I did. So, you know, do your own homework. Look into the company. There's articles about it. There's analysis about this holding that has come out of some cell-side institutions in Korea that are covering the stock. So, you know, you can read about it. But yeah, that spike was basically the investment community realizing that this company now has this huge stake in anthropic. And anthropic is like the hottest company in the world. And by the way, if you were a little bit early, you could have so easily have gotten into this company before that spike. This information was public. It was public information, okay? And it's like astonishing. There were a couple reddit threads talking about this like a couple weeks ago. It's just astonishing to me that both institutional and retail investors are so consumed with noise. They are so distracted that they're missing out on all of these opportunities. I missed out on the bulk of this opportunity. I didn't see it. I only saw it because someone in the dumb money community, thank you. I don't know who it is, but one of our moderators pinged me because someone had seen this and alerted the community. And then one of our mods, again, thank you, notified me about it. I did an hour of research. And I was like, this is great. I was going to invest money in anthropic anyway. I might have had to pay fees and carry. You know what I hate about investing in a private company pre IPO? Is that when you're in a fund, usually what happens is on IPO, they will transfer the shares to you in kind, but not to your brokerage account. You usually have to open up a brand new brokerage account with some random institutional broker that they have chosen. You have to fill out insane amounts of paperwork. It is a huge cluster. Then the shares sit in there. Then after six months, those shares like go through an unlock period and getting those shares unlocked and then going through the process to transfer those shares to your Robinhood or to your Schwab account or your E-Trade account is such a headache that if you don't have a massive amount of money invested, it's just not worth it. It's honestly not worth it. I mean, you better be making so much money off that process because you'll just want to shoot yourself. Getting through that to make it a grunt fee that they took to let you into the fund and the 20% thing to take of the profits you made on the back of the fund. It's a headache. And finding a ticker like SKM that essentially represents a good chunk of anthropic is so much cleaner and so much easier to like get in and out of. And then you have tax paperwork and accounting paperwork for this random brokerage house. And then you got to close that account out because you don't want to have a random broker sitting there. And the whole time before the shares get to you, you get an extra K1 that you have to deal with every year at tax time. I'm so over K1. I'm done with all of that. So when I saw this opportunity, I always liked, dude, this is one more K1, Chris. It doesn't matter. I have a life goal of having no K1s in 10 years. I know it's never going to happen. It's never going to happen. You're stuck with K1s forever. That's what I feel like. If I can get under 20, that would be huge. Yeah. I can get under 20 K1s a year. I think I'm at like 90 right now. All right. I'm seeing several people in the chat talking about SLV falling off a cliff today. Wait, what is it needed to? I mean, you know, what companies don't do stuff like that. And that's a correction. It's silver. Oh, oh, no way. Wait, this is, I'm on the screen right now. I put up a silver chart at which still up 7% week for the week. But look, we're down 30%. 30% today. I'm tempted to buy a little right now. What is going on? What is going on? Dude, what happened? Please tell me what happened. Somebody went out so it goes back down. Have you met the market, Chris? Things go up. Especially things like commodities that are people who are basically this whole silver and gold trade are basically people getting out of the dollar. Now, this is an unwind on the entire market. Okay. So this is impacting it. Look at, look at Transalta is getting crushed. By the way, someone asked me about Transalta in the comments. I love Transalta here. I added to it. The headline here, though, is that silver is down 30% today because the new Fed share pick wants a strong dollar where we have previously won a day week dollar. I don't buy that. What is going on? Karsha stands on rate cuts, reduces likelihood of an easy monitor. There's a whole argument about the dollar price commodity trade. It was a commodity trade. I think it was a getting out of the dollar trade. No, no, no, no speculation. I think maybe part of the total speculation. 10% this year, but most of it was speculation. Well, you know, what happened, gold is probably also falling apart. Let me look at it. Yeah, gold is doing the exact same thing. Yeah. What I like when this happens is you get these moves in the market and you get in, you get in a de-leveraging happen because people are in certain securities, certain commodities. They have to meet margin calls now and they're just selling across the board. All stocks get hit almost equally. It doesn't matter if you have a company that should not be impacted by the underlying narrative that initially brought one or more sectors down. They get hit equally, which provides a hell of an arbitrage opportunity. I always look at my account and I go, why did this happen? What stocks are getting hit? That shouldn't be hit because of this. They are usually the ones that are quickest to rebound from it. That's usually the strategy I take here. By the way, we didn't talk about this, but the biggest story in tech and AI in the last couple of weeks beyond Anthropic is the memory providers. What we're seeing in the memory world is what some people predicted. Some people predicted this six, seven, eight months ago, nine months ago. The data was there and simply nobody believed it. I give so much credit to people that made these bold predictions that we would have a massive memory shortage and that would ultimately equate to the memory companies, there's only a few of them. There's like three big ones in the world. I bought a little of Mew, EW, STK, and WDC. Right now, today, everything's down except for Sandisk is up 10%, but Western digital is down 11%. The thesis here is that they can't increase capacity quickly enough. They are going to increase pricing instead. They already have. We've seen some major price increases the last week. There's a narrative that the margins in memory will climb to 80% margins. We do not see 80% margins in memory. This is generally a commodity industry. That is absolutely wild. You could actually make a case that this happens. These memory companies are still meaningfully undervalued here. Of course, the market is going to be worried about when production finally does come online. They will over manufacture, and then it will come back down. But if you look at the timelines, I'm not so sure what the yields, Jordan, the yields are so bad. At some point in the future, in the next year to two years, you're going to see a bloodbath in companies like micron. But yeah, right now. But Jordan, they're more demand than product. They do have that pricing power. Jordan, if you look at the timelines on their ability to actually expand capacity between these three companies, if you look at the yields, how bad the yields are on micron, you could make a case that it's not going to be any time soon that they will be able to catch up. Also, it AI continues to accelerate. That's the beef about somebody's capital investment ideas in memory. Is it by the time you get anything built out? I'm not smart enough to figure that out. I can't answer that question with conviction. I will say this for anyone that invested in Corsair, which is a company that we were really hyped on, but like a year ago, they have gotten beaten up on this worse than anyone. That stock has gotten crushed. The reason why is that all of the memory now is going to frontier models for AI. Those are the guys that have the long-term contracts that are willing to pay the most amount of money and that are the most critical in terms of maintaining long-term relationships. Beyond that, the next class of clients that are getting these memory chips are automotive. Why? Nobody wants to upset the US government because they're not giving automotive manufacturers chips and they can't make cars and it disrupts the entire economy. That's your second tier. The third tier are going to be very large strategic, large electronics companies that are making critical electronics that need these memory chips. If you look at a company like Corsair, a lot, I think 35% of their revenue comes from DRAM memory and they are buying that mostly through just distributors. Nobody cares about maintaining the relationship with Corsair. These are going to last in a while. In fact, what happened this last week, Corsair's competitor in the consumer market for these memory chips that go into home computers, these DRAM chips, literally is shutting down. They said they're owned by Samsung. So Samsung is saying we are shutting down the company that we acquired however long ago that distributes memory for consumers because we have way higher needs for memory and it's going to go on for years and we don't even want the headache of dealing with consumers right now because they are deprioritized. So this is a bad situation for Corsair. What's ironic about it is Corsair just might have had the craziest biggest quarter ever. They're going to announce here. I don't think it matters because they had all these memory chips that they bought in Q3 of last year that they're now getting to sell for like double and two and a half times the retail. Really huge margins. They'll make a lot of profit but what do they do for the next year? What do they do for the next two years? How are they going to get new inventory? I don't think Corsair can bring on new supply. This is a really dangerous place for Corsair to be and people are shorting the stock because of it. They're selling the stock off because of it and I don't blame them and this is a great example of if you have a thesis on a company which we did at the time and it was a long thesis. If you guys didn't watch that episode, the thesis was that people would want to build their own AI computers at home and that's actually playing out right now. People are building and thropic machines at home on Mac minis and to some extent also these Corsair computers. In any Corsair, we've got some community members who are looking at Raspberry Pi. There's some things going on there too. So Jordan, the thesis was right but something else came along that trumped our thesis. That was more important than our thesis being right which is the fact that this company that relies on buying wholesale DRAM trips. DRAM three suppliers can no longer get them and might not be able to get them at size for years. So as an investor, this is a learning moment in that you can sometimes assess the risk factors but there are always things that you don't know and you don't know what you don't know and that's why there's no such thing as a short thing and you have to account for that when you make these investments, especially when you size these investments in that something like this can pop up and disrupt the entire thesis. So even if your thesis was correct, you might still get screwed on the trade. But this is what we talk about on dumb money because we can't just talk about things that go right. We have to fully expose when a trade and a thesis goes wrong and this is a perfect example. I've lost money on this course here of trade. Guys, I think I sold it. I don't think I have anymore now. But on this last round of course here that I bought, I believe I exited it. I'm checking my account. Yeah, I'm no longer in course here. I'm glad you got out. I just don't know what they do from here. I don't know how they get memory. Yeah, but it's a wild trade. And by the way, this could impact a number of other companies too. So this is going to be, and by the way, this is why I own this is why I own micron because there's no driver's seat. At least for the next few months next year, I feel like more upside than downside. I mean, we've heard relatively not expensive micron. It's still, I mean, for what they're doing. Well, Jordan, we, we always say that when you have an extreme anomaly, that the market has trouble believing in that anomaly. So we've never seen anything like this happen to the memory market. So even though it's, even though that chart looks impressive, the chart doesn't look impressive. The chart looks insane. I think that's what scares people off from it. But it's like in the low teens. So the chart looks insane, but you one could make a case that it should look more insane. And I'm not saying, which is right. But similar to Nvidia, the reason why Nvidia's chart looked insane. And then it looked way more insane a year later. Her is because we were dealing with something we had never seen before, artificial intelligence. And there was no benchmark to compare it to this memory shortage, which is AI driven. There's really nothing to compare it to. And it's hard for us to wrap our head around how long it might last, how much these companies might be able to increase their pricing, the degree to which they can expand their capacity, or improve their yields. But man, it's a great time to be a memory producer. They're about them before. No one cared. They were just, they were just a cog in the wheel. They were just, come on. You guys are just a memory chip guys. Come on. I mean, look, I mean, they're, they're deeply cyclical, right? But this is, this is the time to make, hey, if you're micron. You know what I love is that there were people, there were people six months ago, eight months ago that were so adamant that this was going to happen. And no one, no one listened to them. I mean, they were so adamant. I, yeah, where are you on this? I, I feel like I didn't get in early enough because we didn't talk about it. And I wasn't, I wasn't paying enough attention. Dave, I didn't, for air, I bought some micron, but I didn't really spend enough time to flush out whether the people that were, you know, bang the table on memory were right or not because it wasn't my world. And it was, you'd have to spend a lot of time to feed. There were, there were two sides of the story, right? Yeah. But they were right. And they deserve every penny they make from this. And this is what I love about investing is there are always two sides, winners and losers. The winners deserve it. So good for them. All right guys, I got to get to a lot. We've been going on forever. Yeah, I don't know. Basically, I got, I got excited that I could hear you again once my connection re rebooted itself. And we just kept talking. It wasn't just me though. I saw one of our commenters also in Mexico. They're on the east coast, though, and they're having late and latency issues to Google, whatever it was cleared up. And I can see clearly now. So Dave, do you want me to go to your house? It once it warms up a little more and take off the covers on your pull equipment? Yeah, probably. Okay. All those reasons over. So you should be able to do it by now. Is it going to be bad again at some point or is it? Well, I think it's not getting above weeks. I think it's not getting above freezing tomorrow, Jordan. Yeah, but I mean, I'll just do it. I had to done anything to mine. I didn't cover it. I didn't do it. It's totally fine. Okay. I'm going to go take it off. Leave, leave it on if it's going to not get above freezing for the next day or so. Okay. There's no rush to take it off. And in fact, my pool guy will come by at some point this week. Take it off. He might take it off. I'll let him take it off. It's going to be so dirty and nasty with all the ice and everything on it. I'll let him do it. You got people. You got people. Okay. Well, the best person is you. I just got the bill for having the shrubs covered in the front yard. I'll block those yours. I didn't get my bill yet. Yeah, it was not bad. All new material. Where is it? Here it is. He only charged me $140. For what? And material. Well, he charges me every, my total bill was $340. So he did some other work too, but not bad. I got to see if my guy sent the bill for that yet. I just had the bill texted to me when I couldn't hear anything that was going on in the show. So I was paying more attention to that than you. I'm going to have to rewatch this on the internet to even hear the discussion today. Well, keep us posted. We've got a lot of people really excited about your underwear now. Dave, you could have bought two pairs of those underwear for the money that you spent. Yeah, but just to think how much how much more money I have to put into the market by not buying Chris's underwear. All right, guys, if you watch today's episode, I'm authentically unsure whether the biggest takeaway is long-term Amazon or long-term CDLP us wool underwear. It gets the toss up. It's honestly, it is an absolute toss up for me. You say that is it that is a ticker symbol. It's just a brand of underwear. There's no investment play there. All but underwear is insane, but the $70 wool version is game changer. I'm actually more intrigued now. I might have to buy a pair and see how it goes. All right, that's got to do it for this show. Thanks so much for watching. We're done money. We'll see you next week. Have a great weekend. [Music]