Speaker 1Hello, punters, and welcome to, well, our favourite show of the year. It's the Melbourne Cup Preview Show. Sam Wood, Blake Johnson, Beach. Tomorrow's the big day.
Speaker 2Tomorrow is the big day. Let me tell you, I'd be more excited if St. George was in the race, but it's a cracker. You're flat when we left.
Speaker 1We only, it was pulled out when we were recording last week's podcast. Yeah, and I was banging on about him. Someone left a comment on YouTube. St. George, what are you talking about? It's out of the cup.
Speaker 2Oh, yeah, I was flat. I was flat all of last week, but I'm back up and about because I reckon I've found a couple that we can back.
Speaker 1Well, that's what we want to hear. Make a bit of money out of. That's what we want to hear. We're recording this Monday morning. Price is correct as of then, and we're just talking about it here in the studio. It's a wide open affair. Point of Law is the $6.50 favourite. We've got a 24-horse cup field. Kieran Marsadal, seven runners. Joseph. O'Brien has five. A little bit of rain today forecasted and a little bit Tuesday morning. Do you think we'll be looking at a good four come cup day based on your Swedish weather subscription you have? What's it saying?
Speaker 2It's actually way more than I expected. I think an updated forecast. It's saying 25 mils today. Today? Yeah. Okay. So that throws a spinner in the works. There was definitely not that much forecast yesterday, but well, if we get that rain, we're going to be into a soft track. Not much forecast for tomorrow. We've got 1.3 mils forecast for tomorrow, but we'll see how it plays out.
Speaker 1That'll be exciting. That brings a few other horses into play. So we were just discussing, like I said, before we came on air, since 2000, only three favorites have won the cup. And we're trying to think like 650, the field. Is that short? Is that not? Fiorente in 2013 won. And then, where is it? And then there was 12 years in a row favorites have now lost. International overseas horses have won eight of the 26,000, but none since 2012. And then, you know, we've got a lot of horses that have won the cup. Okay. So it leaves it wide open. Yeah. Yeah. Not that we ever know.
Speaker 2I used to think that horses that, like, you'd only get one chance to win your Melbourne Cup, but that's been turned around. There's been a lot of horses that have come back for a second chance at the cup and either run really well or won the cup, like Twilight Payment. Yeah. That was his second crack at it.
Speaker 1Well, I think we've got four from last
Speaker 2year's cup in this race. I think that year, Sir Dragonay might have been the favourite that year. Oh, yeah? And he won the Cox Plate. Yeah. And missed the start in the Melbourne Cup when Twilight Payment won. Yeah. I remember that. It's a great race. It's a great race. It's my favourite race. Like, it's the day that I just wake up and I'm buzzing. Yeah. Like, there's no other race like it on the Australian racing calendar. Like, Everest, great race. Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, great races. Love them. Yeah. But this is the race. Victoria gets a public holiday for it. It should be a nationwide public holiday. I think it should be, too. They're doing the Call of the Card this year. We'll go down next year, definitely. Yeah, 100%. We'll probably back one to win a million next year. Something like that. That'd be nice. Who wants to take us on, though? They've got four bookies at the Call of the Card. They have to bet people to win $250,000. Jeez, that'd be fun. I've never been, but that sounds like my lunch. Okay, so we're- That's my ideal lunch. We're going there. Bookies to win $250,000. We're going to win $250,000 beers. Only four bookies? Yeah, that's it. I think that's all. They only do the four?
Speaker 1Only four. I think Rob Waterhouse, he always tries to grab one, doesn't he?
Speaker 2I think potentially, I don't know who it is, but, well, I've never been, so I don't know. But I would have thought they would have been the bigger type bookies. That's what I would have thought, too. Like Tab and Sportsbet and those guys, but I'm not sure.
Speaker 1I reckon next year, we post down there, maybe like Friday. Definitely. Definitely Friday, because we'll go to Derby. But then, like, let's have a bit of a strict rule on Friday night. Yeah. I don't want to get first night fever, because that happens every time. Pull-ups dumped by like 10. Sunday, we'll have a rest day. Wait, Sunday rest day? Do the potty for Melbourne Cup. Yeah, and then- Monday, call the car. Monday, call the car. Tuesday. Tuesday. Tuesday. Fly home. Yeah. Wednesday, relax. Thursday, fly home. They want to fly home the very next day. Yeah, we'll fly home. We don't have to go to the Oaks. We don't have to fly home.
Speaker 2We don't have to. If we win, we could just stay down there. We also don't have to organise our trip on this podcast. I want to do it. But it's going to be super fun. I'm excited for it.
Speaker 112 months out, we've already given the wives ample notice.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah, and we'll just start chipping away at horses during it. Like, last night, I got off track from this Melbourne Cup, because I started thinking about next year's Melbourne Cup. And I was looking at, like, horses that didn't quite make this Melbourne Cup, who could win next year's Melbourne Cup, because there's going to be a lot of horses. There's going to be markets come out tomorrow for next year's Melbourne Cup. So, I went down that sort of rabbit hole as well. Oh, okay. Which is why.
Speaker 1Well, we're going to talk about Thursday. We're in a Thursday pod.
Speaker 2Can you give us a few early 12-month-out Melbourne Cup tips? Hopefully, they're in the market. They miss a few, usually. So, we'll see how it plays out. Not St. George.
Speaker 1We won't. Let's not mention it anymore. It's depression. What I thought we
Speaker 2could do is we could just do. Just before we move on. Yeah. I listened to Bossy's. His podcast yesterday. They recorded it before. Barriers? No, before, like, Derby Day. Okay. And he was, like, half spruiken St. George. And he said, after the Cox played, he saw Kieran Murray and he said, I think that's your Melbourne Cup winner. And Murray said, yeah, I think so. So, that. Oh, cool.
Speaker 1That's depressing. What, you just wanted to get that in before we started, did you? Yeah, I did. You're a sicko. That's a glutton for punishment. Okay. But, yeah, we all did our day there. But what I thought we could do is we could just go runner by runner. You can let me know your thoughts. You can let me know whether you think it's worth a bet at the end of it. We can go through a top four together.
Speaker 2One to 24. I'm going to have, like, 10 horses in my first four. All right. Like, I'm not going to box 10. No, I don't mind a bit. There will be 10 horses floating in my first four. Yeah, okay. So.
Speaker 1Well, we're going to start at the top. Sons and Lovers, $21. This is the first of five runners for Joseph O'Brien. Irish Raider with genuine staying form. Won the Group 2 pre-Maurice Deneul in July and ran fourth in the Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200 metres.
Speaker 2Yeah, he's got some hope. He's got a rough hope. I thought he was okay last start. He carried 63.5 kilos. So, he can carry weight. He drops six kilos to 57.5. Gets the right run. He's got figures that put him close enough to the winning standard. He's not in my top 10, but he could sneak into the top 10.
Speaker 1I like it. You like it? Yeah. It's in my numbers. Okay. Fair. Should we do them at the end? Yeah, do them at the end.
Speaker 2Okay, okay. You can repart on them. I'll have my little mention. You can rebuttal at the end of what I say. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, we'll do our numbers at the end.
Speaker 1All right. Trust your instinct. $9. Won the Group 2 Curra Cup over 2,820 metres. Two starts back. Has a 3,200 metre. Hurdles win in that form. J-Mac rides. Trust your instinct.
Speaker 2Yeah, great booking. He's got a real good turn of foot, this horse. Two back at the Curra. He was held up. He got to the outside, and he showed a really sharp turn of foot. No match for Scandinavia last start, but that's got to be good form. 57 kilos. Great jockey booking in J-Mac. He's in my top 10.
Speaker 1Knight's choice. So, obviously, won the Cup two years back. Finished 14th in the Caulfield Cup last start. Gets barrier two. Robbie Dolan on board. His knight's choice, I hope, at $51.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think he's going. Well, he's going equal to or better than when he won the Cup, but he does have to carry more weight this time around. He carried 51.5 kilos when he won it. He'll carry 56.5 kilos here. That was a really slowly run Melbourne Cup, which isn't the norm. Two back. He probably should have won when he was held up at a key stage behind Pinhole. Then Pinhole came out and was luckless. Probably should have got a run in this year's Melbourne Cup. He was out the back in the. Caulfield Cup. He made no real impact, but I think he can. At least we know he stays 3,200 metres. He's not in my top 10, but he could easily fill one of those top 10 places because he runs 3,200 metres. Yeah. I think he's a
Speaker 1little bit past his best. Hasn't had a win in the last 12 months, so happy to leave him out of mine. Middle Earth, $15. Third in last year's Cup, beaten just over four length, carries two kilogram more here and comes into this race through the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Zara. on board. Yeah, so this bloke, he comes
Speaker 2through all the right races. Look, he comes through the Underwood Stakes, the Turnbull Stakes, the Caulfield Cup, and the Cox Plate into the Melbourne Cup. So he's had the right preparation. He's just been ticking over perfectly. Zara's a great booking for him. Look, all these sort of horses that come through wait-for-age races and are doing enough have to be a great hope in this race. We know that he stays 3,200 meters. He ran really well in a very fast Melbourne Cup last year. I think he's ticking over very well. Kieran Ma speaks really highly of him. This is grand final day, similar preparation to last year. He's probably going better than he was last year. So he's a definite winning chance.
Speaker 1Ooh. That was going to be my question. Coming into this race better than last year? You're going to like it. I haven't even read my numbers. I can't wait. Vauban, he was six in last year's Cup. $71 here. Beaten just over nine lengths. Four-time Group 1 winner. He resumed coming ninth in the Geelong Cup after a five-month break. Draws barrier 22 here. Geordie Childs in the saddle for Gayle. And Adrian Bott.
Speaker 2Is this his fourth crack at the race? I think it's his fourth crack at the race. Yeah. Six last year. Very fast race. I'd have to risk him. He's first up off. He's second up here. So he just doesn't have the preparation, the grounding under his legs this time around. But maybe they're just trying something different for him. Considering they haven't won a Melbourne Cup with him in four attempts. I think Gayle's only had him for last year's attempt potentially. I'm happy enough to risk him. He was average there at Geelong. He'd have to improve sharply and he'd have to improve sharply on what he's done in his previous three attempts. So happy to risk him.
Speaker 1Yeah. He's burnt my wallet. Definitely in the last two, I've always had an opinion on him in those races and just hasn't been good. Me so. I'm not going to take him on at $71. I reckon he was favourite at one point. I reckon he started favourite in two Melbourne Cups. You reckon both? The first two? What was the other one? Last year. No, the other horse that like would, like, I feel like the market would go back and forth with those two and they backed it in as well last year. Forbarnan. I'm trying to think because it's run the last two as well. I'm not sure. But yeah, it's, yeah, it'd have to, it'd have to pull out something pretty. It'd be very special to run a big race here, especially from Barrier 22. Yeah. Well, he's a nine-year-old. He's not getting any younger. He's good outside of the Cup.
Speaker 2Like, I feel like. Well, I think he's, he's like, if he won, there'd be a lot of cranky people. I'd be one of them. A hundred percent, I'd be one of them. There would be a lot of cranky people because there's a lot of people that have done their dough on him. I don't know. Not that. What price did he start last year? He started $21 last year, but I'm pretty confident that he either started. Favorite or second favorite in the previous two years. Yeah. So there would have been a lot of people that backed him there. Maybe a few that stuck fat with him last year. And then if he comes out and wins this Cup, which I don't think that he can, there'd be a lot of cranky people. Yeah. Oh, well, yes.
Speaker 1All right. Our sixth runner is MFJAR, $23. He ran third in the Caulfield Cup first up, beaten a length for UK trainer, Roger Varian. He won a group three at Goodwood over $2,412. He's got a lot of meters in August. Ray Dawson rides.
Speaker 2Yeah. So I thought he had every possible chance in the Caulfield Cup, but he ran well. And that form has been really strong. We've seen Cosmic Crusader come out and win the Cox Plate. So the form out of the race is really strong. I was going to tip St. George. He ran third in that race. The question mark with him is probably 3,200 meters, but he ran the 24 out relatively strong. He's got a good draw, economical run. He started $12 in that Caulfield Cup. I have to give him a really good hope. If he improves off that Caulfield Cup run, he has to be right there.
Speaker 1Okay. Royal Supremacy, $71. It was 15th in last year's Cup, beaten 13 lengths, comes into this race off a JRA Cup win in September. 15th in the Caulfield Cup from barrier 21.
Speaker 2Yeah. He had all favors winning at Caulfield two back and then stacked them up last start in the Caulfield Cup. Probably went too slowly, but he went poor. So yep. I'd be happy enough to take him on.
Speaker 1One dark sea has won three of his past five, including the group three, Jeffrey Freer over 2671 in August. He found the lead then faded to 11th in the Caulfield Cup. He's got a good draw. He's got a good Cup. Damien Lane on board. He started $8 in the
Speaker 2Caulfield Cup, but I don't think that it was a run that said I want to back you in the Melbourne Cup. His SP from that Caulfield Cup gives him some hope, but I'd be prepared to take him on.
Speaker 1I don't mind Wyndarksey. I think he's going to find his way into my numbers. I liked him for the Caulfield Cup, so I have to give him some hope here. Asterix is $71, finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup after running last in the Turnbull. That was on a heavy track. Past two runs have been pretty poor, so I think it's probably a big ask for John McNeil here.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think that he'll stay the 3,200 metres, but he's probably a run below them. I don't think that he can win the Cup.
Speaker 1Goody Two Shoes is $26. He was the one. That probably threw a lot of people's numbers out last year when ran second in the Cup, beaten 2.75 lengths from Barrier 20. Comes into this race off a Group 2 win at Goodwood in August. 12 of her 14 wins have come on good ground. Only has the one win from 12 starts on a soft-rated track.
Speaker 2Yeah, so I think she's got a great hope. Goody Two Shoes at really big odds. Before the Melbourne Cup last year, she ran third in a race at Goodwood, a Group 2. And then she was 13 weeks between runs into that Melbourne Cup. This time around, she actually won that same race at Goodwood, but Joseph's given her an extra run. So maybe he thinks that she probably just needed another run under her belt to prepare her better and not have that really big gap between runs this time around. So she was super in that Melbourne Cup. That was a really fast run race. She sat close enough to that speed. She lapped it up. She loomed into the race and she found one better half yours who'd had a softer run. I think she can improve on that performance. She's not getting any younger. She's an eight-year-old mare, but she's going every bit as well as she was last preparation. She did run last, last start in that race over 2,400 meters, but I think that that's potentially just a race that Joseph wanted to get under her belt. She draws out. She's going to roll forward, put herself in the race, and she's right in my numbers for sure.
Speaker 1Very exciting. Juja Kibo, $11, won the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup at his past two starts for Kiramar. Drops three kilograms from that Gold Cup win. Sam Clippett on board from Barrier 14. Yeah, he's going really
Speaker 2well. I have big question marks over him staying. 3,200 meters. His last two races have been really slow, slowly run races. He overcame the race shape to win that Moonee Valley Cup and get his ticket into the Melbourne Cup. But we're going to get into a really fast race here. He failed in the Sydney Cup last year as a $10 chance. I think Mr. Monaco's a better horse than him. There was a race at Randwick before that Sydney Cup where Mr. Monaco, that was a fast race. He sat three deep without cover and he beat Juja Kibo home. So I think a fast race, 3,200 meters is against him and he's one of the horses that he's right in the market that I'd be happy to take on.
Speaker 1Okay. Hopewell Rock, $11, ran second in the E-Boar at York, beaten 0.2 lengths. Has only had the 10 starts under its belt. Come in fresh after 10 weeks with no Australian run. This is Zach Lloyd's ride for the cup. Do you give it a hope? Yeah. So this is, this is going to be my
Speaker 2top pick, Hopewell Rock. Great. Yeah. I really like him. I like, I love the way this horse travels into races. Um, so at Goodwood, he gave small fry four and a half kilos. Um, so small fry, we can tie that horse in with point of law. He came out here. He's really good on speed in that Geelong cup. Um, and then at York, uh, in that E-Boar, he's really good on speed in that Geelong cup. Um, and he was just held up at a key stage. He probably should have won the race. Uh, I like how this horse travels into the race. Um, he doesn't undo his own steam. He gets the right jockey in the saddle. Zach, Mark Lloyd is riding in unbelievable form. Barrier 15 is probably good for him. It means that he can potentially build into the race, which is what he has done when he's been at his best. So I think that he's the horse that is really well-weighted for this Melbourne Cup, and I think that he is a very good winning chance.
Speaker 1Let's go. One smooth operator. This is the former Geelong Cup winner's third cup. He finished 13th, 9th, and 11th this prep. He's had no wins in five starts over the past 12 months. Blinker's gone for the first time.
Speaker 2Yeah, $91. Yeah, so this horse, I think this is his third crack at the race, and he did start favourite or second favourite in the race a couple of years ago. He might have been the horse that was bouncing off with Vauban because he came over to Australia, he won the Geelong Cup, and then he started favourite or second favourite in the Melbourne Cup, and he was caught wide, and then last year he started $41 I don't think he's going well enough, and I'm not sure that he stays 3,200 metres, so happy to take him on.
Speaker 1Sol of Spain for Chris Waller. Raced on the pace for eighth in the Caulfield Cup as a placing at 3,200 metres. Draw barrier five is currently $31 in the market.
Speaker 2Yep, that placing was in the Sydney Cup last year, and he has a terrific run. He got back from a wide draw. It was a good ride. He cut the corner, presented at the right time, really strong through the line. He was going really well. This preparation, ticking over nicely, came through the right sort of races, the Chelmsford Stakes, the Kingston Town Stakes, and he ran well in both of those races, and then he struck a soft track in the Metropolitan, and his run in the Caulfield Cup was good. He made an early move on the back of a really slow tempo, and he stuck on well. He stays 3,200 metres. He doesn't like it wet, so anything worse than a soft five, I'd be taking him on, but on a soft five, I think he's a top four chance.
Speaker 1Great. Zaran, $29, won the Naturalism, ran six in the Caulfield Cup. The blinkers go on for the first time. Ben Mellon on board.
Speaker 2He comes through the right couple of races. He comes through in the Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Cup. He started $7.50 in the Caulfield Cup. He was potentially in the wrong part of the track, having to go back to the inside. He avoided that fall, at the top of the straight. He ran okay. Maybe coming one year too soon for him. Maybe he'll be a better chance next year, but that $7.50 SP gives him some type of hope, given the fact that he didn't have every chance, in my opinion, in that Caulfield Cup. He was in the wrong part of the track. He's not in my top 10, but he's a horse that could potentially be in the top 10, He's not in my top 10, but he's a horse that could potentially blow me out. Is he one that you'll be looking at on Wednesday for the markets for next year? No, he's not. Only five. He'll be well enough found, I reckon, but he'll be, he's a sort of very good stayer in the future.
Speaker 1Yeah, okay, cool. All right, so you are. So, Bjorn Baker's runner, won his past four starts, including the Sydney St. Ledger. Wednesday's Bendigo Cup, drops four and a half kilos, draws well. Can Rach win a Melbourne Cup on this horse?
Speaker 2He's in my top 10, scrapes in, scrapes into my top 10. He's flying from the new stable, this horse. He's won four in a row. Is he good enough to win the Melbourne Cup? I don't think so. His Bendigo Cup win was good. He had favours. It was fantastic. Fence and run day, he found fence and run presented at the right time. He'll stay 3,200 metres, in my opinion. He draws to get the right run. So, that's why he's in my top 10.
Speaker 1Is the length of this campaign a question? Like, has it been up for too long?
Speaker 2That's not something that, I can't, he keeps going back to the well and running really well. Finding more, yeah. So, I can't say that at start, whatever it is, 13, 14 for the prep, like this is the one that he's going to be, he's going to be over the top. So, that's not something I worry about.
Speaker 1Yeah, okay, okay. Okay, future history, ran ninth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, placing second in the JRA Cup earlier this prep as two wins at Flemington. He was unplaced in his only run over 3,200 metres, currently $71 in the market.
Speaker 2Yeah, so he's run behind Pinhole 2 back. That was a fast race. Was good. Jamie Mellon won the Cup last year on half yours. So, she'll be looking to go, back to back. Not every chance in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. I don't think he's good enough to win the Melbourne Cup. He's not in my top 10, but he could fill a top 10 position.
Speaker 1James J. Braddock, $19, ran third in the Epsom Derby in June. Willow rides from barrier 24. Give it a chance.
Speaker 2This horse definitely is in my mind. Top 10. He's very lightly raced. He doesn't have any ratings that suggest that he could win the race, but he's one of those sort of horses that could really explode when he gets to Australia, when he gets to 3,200 metres for the first time. Last start behind Arabian Crown, a few horses came through that race, but he was sort of just warming up, sneaking, like he was warming up through the line. So, it gives me the feeling that, 3,200 metres is going to suit him. 24 barrier, 24 doesn't help him, but he goes in everything. I think he could run into the top four. Okay. Kislyar. Yeah. So, Kislyar, they really wanted to back him in that Moonee Valley Cup. He was hammered. He started $3.80, but they just went too slow. I think that for a horse that, most of his forms over 2,800 metres plus 4,000 metres, his last win was 2,500 metres walking race. His sectionals through the line were okay, even though he had horses going past him that had better turn of foot. So, I think in a faster run race up to 3,200 metres, he can improve sharply, but he's not in my top 10.
Speaker 1Okay. Point of law. So, we've got our favourite here, Kieran Marr, won the Geelong Cup at his first Australian start, has won three of five overall. Drops two kilograms to 53 kilos. Draws a good gate in barrier nine, Ethan Brown on board and currently $6.50.
Speaker 2Yeah. So, he's right in there for mine. Obviously. He sat outside the lead in the Geelong Cup, very fast tempo. Put them to the sword. It was a big win. He's lightly raced. He's only had five starts. A little bit of improvement through that Geelong Cup. Yeah. But it's a good start. See him right in the race. He draws nine. Ethan Brown in the saddle. There's just a lot to like about him. There's potential for improvement. His last start win was to the winning standard and he didn't have every chance. So, he's a horse that has to go in, deserves his spot at the top of the market and his genuine winning chance. Okay. Well, people will be very happy with that.
Speaker 1Strictly business. One last year's VRC Oaks, who runs his prep of being 14th. 12th and 16th for a combined loss of 30 lengths. $91 in the market.
Speaker 2Yep. Her win in last year's VRC Oaks suggests that she could win this race. So, she's a real stayer. She's going terrible though. Yeah. I'm not sure if they could step in and say, like, there's a few horses that would be better served in this race, like the likes of Kings Valley. Yeah. Then strictly business. She'll probably come out and win now. But I think she's going terribly. I think there should be some type of, like I know she deserves her place in the race, but.
Speaker 1Like a 12-month rating? Like if you haven't run to a certain standard over the last 12 months. Well, she. Maybe something that. She would have because it was, she would have scraped in. Wait, what day was it?
Speaker 2VRC Oaks, that would have been, yeah. She would have scraped in. A lot of months. But there needs to be something. Like they need to be able to step in and say, okay, well, one thing that I, I think return to run last. So, you get more to run last in this race than it is on final acceptance. So, I think the final acceptance is 75,000, but it's 100,000 to run last in the race. Right. So. They need to change that. They need to make.
Speaker 1So, what do you mean? The final acceptance as in they got to pay 75,000?
Speaker 2It might be 25, might be 25. Right. To, to accept in this race. Yeah, okay, okay, okay. But you get 100. Yeah, for coming last. So, there's no, there's no risk. Yeah. For entrance in this race because if they run last. Yeah. They get more than it cost them to accept. So, they need to take away, they need to put that risk back on the entrance. Yeah. Like the. That's fair. The top 10 should get paid, the next 14, nothing. That makes sense. And then potentially you get a better field. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because like I would have loved this. There's a, there's a few horses that didn't make this field. Yeah. would have had a much better chance than Strictly Business. Oh, yeah. Look, Kings Valley, as you said. Kings Valley, there was a few that missed out that would have had a much better chance.
Speaker 1Yeah. Yeah. When you put it like that, it seems a bit stupid, doesn't it? That there is just zero risk. Yeah. There needs to be some risk. Especially, yeah. Okay. Mr. Monaco, number 22, $23 from Barrier 16, won the Bart Cummings on a heavy eight, ran third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Jabez, Johnston on board, Kieran Ma. Do you like Mr.
Speaker 2Monaco? He's definitely in my top 10, and he's relatively high up in that top 10. I think he's going really well. If we do get rain and we get onto a heavy track, he's going. He's going to be really hard to beat. So, last preparation, that race that I was talking about was the Menin Cup, and we actually backed him. He had no luck. He was three wide, no cover, fast race. Dua Kibo might have been favorite in that race. This bloke was second, third favorite, and he toughed it out to win it. That was over 2,400 meters. That gives me an indication that he will stay 3,200 meters given the fact that he did it tough over 2,400 meters in a fast race. Last preparation, he started $5.50 in the Sydney Cup after that, but Jamie Mellon rode him, and she was concerned with his action. So, maybe something wrong with him in that Sydney Cup. So, happy enough to forgive that given the fact that he showed up in the stewards report, sat on the speed in the bark cummings, too good for them on that heavy deck, and then he was no match for Dua Kibo last start in that Moonee Valley Cup, but he just doesn't quite have the turn of foot of Dua Kibo. He'd be better. He'd be better suited in a faster race. He's going to get a faster race here. Potentially, he's going to get a wet surface, and I think he runs well.
Speaker 1Okay. Good luck to the bloke I'll sit next to on the planks. He was flying down Derby Day for Mr. Monaco. Can't remember if he owned it or his mates owned it, but they got a very high opinion of that horse. So, good to see it from them. Zakuma has had two wins from four starts of Flemington, ran last in the Kia or a mile. Last start, $31 from Barrier 10, the great William Pike on board.
Speaker 2Yeah, got to hope. Had that real good run. Yeah, the naturalism stakes, I think, potentially best last 200 meters of the race. Okay in the Herbert Power, and then just had a tick over run last start at 1,600 meters. It was no match for them. It looked horrible, but it was just, it was a tick over run under race pressure. 3,200 meters potentially suits. He won that Ramsden. So, Graham Begg's an astute trainer. So, he's had the chance to absolutely map out this preparation, having peaking over 3,200 meters on the day. I think he runs well.
Speaker 1Okay. The last one, the one I'm interested to hear your thoughts on is Chocolates. So, won the Archer. Stakes at Flemington. Ran second in the Tessio. Harry Coffey on board, and they've combined for six wins from 12 rides together, and likely to get up for this race, to ride in this race after his fall on Saturday, which is amazing in its own right. My best ticket right now, do you give Chocolates a hope? Don't clear your throat and say no.
Speaker 2No, she's outside of my top ten. Oh, come on. I don't think she's good enough. She's going really well. Yeah. Like, great preparation. Blinkers went on in that Archer stakes. She won really well, and then they took the blinkers off. She was really strong through the line in the Herbert Power. Blinkers back on over 2,000 meters last start. A tick over run, hit the line really nicely. It's the perfect preparation. Perfect profile, up to 3,200 meters. Mars sort of always spoke about her at the top of his hierarchy of chances in the race, but I don't think she's good enough to win with 51 kilos. Maybe next year.
Speaker 1Not convinced. That wasn't a convincing knock on that horse. I wouldn't fall over if she weren't. Yeah. But you can't do it. You wouldn't fall over if any of these horses weren't. Honestly, like it's Melbourne Cup. I'd fall over if- Don't fall into that trap. Don't fall into that trap. That's what Pat used to do on the podcast. Absolutely put a pen through them and they'd just run out of-
Speaker 2No, there's a couple I'd fall over if they won. One smooth operator, I'd fall over. Okay. Clip that up. One smooth operator is actually my longest price horse in the race. What? On your- On my pricing. Right, okay. Four hundred and forty-four to one. Okay, okay, right.
Speaker 1What's your best ticket?
Speaker 2I don't really have many to tell you the truth, but Hopewell Rock. Hopewell Rock, yeah. Yeah. Do you want to do your tips first? That's 24. That's it's done, isn't it? That's a lot of them, yeah.
Speaker 1Yeah, my numbers are, I don't know, I've just got to write the last two in there. And what was Jane Maxwell? Trust Your Instinct. Trust Your Instincts. So I've got Hopewell Rock and Trust Your Instincts in there, but I've also got chocolates. I like So You Are. I do. I kind of, I've got the good ticket, not the good, good ticket, but the semi-good ticket. It's like into $12, by the way, which is shorter than I thought we'd say it, and I think I'm, you know. Cheering for the story as well for Hildo and Rach and Bjorn. He's got the ticket fence, so potentially the Australian public's going to like that. Oh, and. Rach. Yeah, the female jockey and. Bjorn the larrikin. Oh, everyone loves Bjorn. Hildo. Everyone knows who Hildo is because he's in the background. Celebrates, the best celebrator on track when they have the camera on them, I'll say that. Yeah, that's what he's paid to do, yeah, for sure. I think he's paid to do plenty. So, I quite like the top weight, Sons and Lovers. Okay. Like you, I liked Goody Two Shoes, and then, yeah, I had Wine Dark Sea in there, and I had Mr. Monaco, so I think that's 10 or is that? Nine. It could be nine. I could have a top nine. That was a dog's breakfast. I'm all over the place, but there's nine there. I didn't even hear chocolates. Where's chocolates? Chocolates was the first one I said. Okay. Yeah, so chocolates is there. But chocolate, I got the 50. I got the $51 ticket at chocolates. Okay. So, that's currently my best result for the pocket. Good luck. I believe. Good luck. Okay. Let's talk about yours. The one that probably people want to hear.
Speaker 2No, they want to hear yours. Yeah. Hopewell Rock is my top selection. Okay, yeah. And then, I'm also going to be back in Goody Two Shoes. I think Point of Law can win the race, but I won't, I'll be losing on the race if he wins, unless I get trifecta or first four. A little exotic, yeah. Well, but I probably won't get that if he wins, even though he's a really good winning chance. I just, I don't have him marked as short as he is in the market. There's talk about him being a bit of a hothead. So, getting to Flemington, favorite, being a hothead, it's going to be a lot busier than Geelong. Yeah, a lot going on. Yeah. 500,000 people at the course. Like, he's good enough to win it, and maybe he does win it, or maybe next year is his year when he's had sort of 12 months with Kieran Maher. But back to my top 10. Yeah. Fourth pick for me is Amphijar. Okay, yeah. I think he runs really well. I think J-Mac's got a good chance on Trust Your Instinct. And then, sixth pick is Mr. Monaco. Okay. He would be elevated a little bit if we did get onto a really wet surface. And then, I have Middle Earth, seventh pick. And then, I have Soul of Spain, eighth pick. I will take him out of the top 10 if we're on a soft six or worse. And then, ninth pick. I have James J. Braddock. Yeah. And then, equal 10th, I have Zakuma, and so you are. So, I've got 11 here. You've got 11 for your top 10.
Speaker 1I've gone nine for my top 10, and you've gone 11. Okay. So, between it, that works out. It makes sense. That's how it makes sense. That's why we-
Speaker 2So, basically, my trifectas and first fours- Yeah. Will be sort of worked out tomorrow, given the track conditions. But- I'll have Hope- It'll all be around Hopewell Rock and Goody Touche's winning the Melbourne Cup. Yeah. If we're on a heavy track, I'll potentially put- Mr. Monaco in to win it as well. But yeah, I'll sort of have those two horses to win it and then I'll sort of box up the rest of them to fill the placings in the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 1Okay, I love it. Big day tomorrow. Yeah. Anything can happen.
Speaker 2Yeah. I really think Goody Two Shoes is a very good. Well, I'm glad you like it because I liked it too.
Speaker 1That was my last one in.
Speaker 2She's a very good roughy.
Speaker 1My last one in this morning when I was doing the form. She got put in to ninth, tenth. No, she went up the order, but I haven't got it in order. You've got it in order.
Speaker 2Did you put Wine Dark Sea in?
Speaker 1Yeah. Okay. I had Wine Dark Sea in there. You did mention him. Yeah. You liked him. What's your best roughy? What's your best roughy that's in there? It would probably be Goody Two Shoes. Okay. What price is Goody Two Shoes right now? 26 bucks. Well, then, no. It probably would have been, I don't know, Sons and Lovers, which is about the same price as well. So, yeah. I haven't got anything really massive there.
Speaker 2I don't. There's not. As the market currently stands, which is a shock. Yes. There's not a hundred to one chance in the Melbourne Cup. Yeah. The longest price horse in the Melbourne Cup is. Is it $61?
Speaker 1Strictly business is $91.
Speaker 2$91. Yeah. Well, I got $61.
Speaker 1That must be one of the other books. I've got on best odds on racing it. Oh, sorry. Wine Dark Sea would be my roughest in my top 10. What price is he? 50s. Yeah. But, yeah. Flemington Race 7. One that neither of us put in was Juja Kibo, which is interesting because we spoke about it two episodes back here, whether it was going to get a run in. Was it the Cox Play? No, it was the Caulfield Cup when we were talking about Kings Valley.
Speaker 2Yeah. If people listen to the Caulfield Cup, I actually said that if Point of Law got into the Caulfield Cup, he would run well and that he was the Melbourne Cup horse.
Speaker 1I remember you saying that.
Speaker 2Yes. I didn't back him, though. Stupid. That was silly. That was silly. But, yeah, he can win. He can win. Yeah. Like, I'm looking right now and the longest priced horse that I can see with most of the major corps is $71, Strictly Business. Yeah, right. Yeah. That doesn't. I'm looking. Surely, like. Surely, there's. If you like Strictly Business, she has to start 100 feet, double that.
Speaker 1Why are they keeping some of these horses safe? I don't know.
Speaker 2Maybe they'll work it out at the. At the call of the card.
Speaker 1Maybe it'll be something to do, like, with the exotics as well because, like, you always. How often do you see people on social media winning, you know, $110,000 for a mystery trifecta or, you know, a mystery first four?
Speaker 2Betfair's starting to work it out. Betfair's got, like, Vauban's $95 on Betfair. Supremacy's $95. Asterix is $95. And then you've got two at $130, one smooth operator and Strictly Business. So, I think those sort of horses will continue to get out. Yeah, okay. I'd be surprised if. Yeah. Strictly Business is. It's a $150 to one shot.
Speaker 1Yeah. Well, good. Exciting. Get on board. Oh, big day for members tomorrow as well. We have 24 hours left of our. Cup 50 sale. Yeah. 50% off. Going. Monthly, quarterly, and yearly on your first payment. This is the biggest discount we've given away this year. So, if you're a returning member or you're looking to get on board for the first time, make sure you hit the link below. Enter the code CUP50. It's been extremely popular. But, yes, literally 24 hours to go on that sale. So, that's it.
Speaker 2That's it, punters.
Speaker 1Anything else you want to add?
Speaker 2No, no. That's. Look, it's. Our time up. Our time is up here.
Speaker 1Yeah, it's time to settle in and get ready to count stacks.
Speaker 2Yeah, I'm going to go buy the best bets. I'm going to buy the paper. Yeah. Maybe we'll. I don't know if we'll do a sweep between you and I. You can have 12 and I'll have 12. I love it. We can put our own money in. I'll have a coffee. Chill out for a little while. Read the best bets. It's going to be beautiful.
Speaker 1Yeah, honestly, the next two days is a lot of fun for us. A lot of fun for us. It'd be funner if we were there. Oh, next year. We'd be at breakfast this morning.
Speaker 2Next year. Have a nice smashed avo, a couple of poached eggs. Yeah. A bit of halloumi.
Speaker 1Okay. What else?
Speaker 2Baked beans? You like baked beans? Mug of almond cappuccino. I do. I love baked beans, but I wouldn't have that.
Speaker 1You know what I'd have? Bloody Mary. Oh, yeah. I love Bloody Mary. But Sunday's our quiet day, and then Monday. Monday. Yeah, call a car. I want to have a bit of a buzz on. Oh, you're buzzing.
Speaker 2I want to have a bit of a buzz on if we're going to try it. We're betting to win a million. I'll join you with a Bloody Mary after my coffee and stuff. And then we'll call the Uber. Uber. I'll get my nice polo on, some trousers.
Speaker 1Okay. Keep going. It's a real treat for you guys. For those that have stuck around right to the end of the podcast, I feel like we always have a little bit of dribble at the end. This is great. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2It depends. What else? What color polo? Maybe a bright one.
Speaker 1Well, I was going to go like a dark green, but I thought, no. We want them to see us in the room with the hand up. It depends. If we won on the Saturday, I might go shopping, get a new pink polo. If we won Derby Day, I think Derby Day as well, we go tails. I saw how a lot of people were wearing, like, the three-piece and tails. If we have a big win Derby Day, I'll recycle the tails for the call of the cart. Because you want people to be able to see you so that you can get the bed on with them. And if you're wearing a fucking bright pink polo and I'm in full tails, they'll see us. They'll see us. They can't miss us.
Speaker 2They'll see us. All right, punters. Good luck, punters. What a great day.
Speaker 1Enjoy tomorrow. Enjoy tomorrow. Have fun. And I hope, I hope you back a winner.
Speaker 2Let us know in the comments your tip. Yeah, give us your Melbourne Cup tip. See you, punters.
Speaker 1Bye. What's gambling really costing you? For free and confidential support, call the number on your screen or visit the website.
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