Speaker 1They're racing immediately. What a champion! Becomes a legend! But KB Deaver wins it again! Yes, yes, yes! Wins the Ever-Race! Glenn Boss wins another big one!
Speaker 2Hello everyone and welcome to Who's the Boss? Once again, great to have your company, Adam Peacock, alongside Glenn Boss and we've got a friend of the show coming back this week. Yes, mate. Bossy, how are you?
Speaker 3Mate, I'm great. Had a great week. Being down in Melbourne, it's been full on. It's been a wonderful carnival so far. Cox Plate Day at Flemington was pretty unique, but it was good.
Speaker 2Great fun. Kingsley Bartholomew, co-punter, punter extraordinaire. He's going to lead us into a couple of winners hopefully today as well. That's not the main reason we brought you along. We've asked me back, so that's a wrap in itself.
Speaker 1Good to see you again, mate. Yes, thanks for having me on. How's the carnival been? It's been up and down. Caulfield Cup was a strip out, Cox Plate was a fill up. The Cox Plate itself wasn't a fill up, but the day was. I had a big bet on Eliana. If she had it, I'd have got home. I would have had a big result, but I thought when she got three quarters of a length in front that she was going to hold them off, but Willie Pike, too good.
Speaker 2Life's all about balance though, isn't it? You can't win them all.
Speaker 1You want to. I suppose it has to be, yeah.
Speaker 3What was Caulfield so bad? You think it was the way the track's been riding lately? I don't know. The form can be a bit missy.
Speaker 1Just the way it felt for me, and I'm betting every track everywhere as well. It wasn't just Caulfield. The Everest cost me. I was on Carging Rising. I had a big bet on Carging Rising as well, so that obviously didn't help. But yeah, the Caulfield Cup was a messy race, wasn't it?
Speaker 3Yeah. Oh, they went so slow. That English jockey rode Royal Supremacy. He just invited everyone into the race, didn't he? Yes. He was going 14th of the furlong for about three furlongs and just invited something to happen, which it did.
Speaker 1But we had the Cox Plate winner come out of it as well, obviously. Cosmic Crusaders come out and won the Cox Plate, and also St. George, who ran second, ran a big race in the Cox Plate as well. So maybe the form isn't as bad as everyone thinks coming out of that Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 2Well, we're going to delve right into it over the course of the next 45 minutes or so. But as always, as we start on the show, we've already done this with you, Kingsley, with the three cups here. We'll toast again. But today, I think we'll toast the fact that you're back with us and Bossy's legs are with us as well, because they look absolutely fantastic. Thanks, mate. Thanks very much for that. No, you've been in Melbourne the whole. You've got to give them a bit of air, because you've had pants on in Melbourne. Yeah. I would. And you can't get the pins out in Melbourne. It's too cold.
Speaker 3Has it? Yeah, it's been sunny in Melbourne, I tell you. Let's toast for a big spring. Finish a big spring. Yeah, exactly. The Cup winner this year.
Speaker 1That's what we need.
Speaker 3Oh, yeah, that's what we need. I think I've found him.
Speaker 1Really? Yep. I find it impossible to line up the form at the moment. It is hard. Oh, my goodness. I want to see what the track's doing.
Speaker 3Mate, I think I've found this year's Melbourne Cup winner already. Already? Yep. How good. Cheers. Cheers, guys. Cheers. Cheers to whoever lifts one of these next Tuesday.
Speaker 2Or a few of them as well.
Speaker 3Someone's going to be drinking out of their own cup. Indeed. In a week or so, isn't it?
Speaker 2Booty. Tastes good, eh?
Speaker 3Oh, yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2There it goes. We'll go through the whole bottle by the end of this.
Speaker 3That's the intention.
Speaker 2Hasn't been done before, I don't think, on an episode. Well, there's a first time for everything.
Speaker 3Well, it's the afternoon. Time for a beer.
Speaker 2Yeah, it's carnival time. Why not? Before we really roll in, we do have to thank, once again, as we always do at the top of the show, because they're great supporters of the show, the one and only AirTouch. I've got it right here. Bossy's pad. Down in Melbourne, actually, this one. It's not your one up in Queensland, Bossy, but it's airtouch.net.au. All your air conditioning needs right in the palm of your hand there on your iPad, on your phone, wherever you want to do it. You can adjust it wherever you are. Bossy, it's the best.
Speaker 3It is the best. I actually went back on the Gold Coast for the last couple of days, and we have had 200 mil of rain up there. Humid. It's been actually shit weather, to be honest. But you know that your house is full of humidity? You can put it on dry, and it just makes everything perfect. I love it. It's the best setting in the world.
Speaker 2How good. So I'll take that. I'll take the humidity down on this. Yeah, please take the humidity down. Especially in the back there.
Speaker 3There's control in my house from here.
Speaker 2Yeah, exactly. Airtouch.net.au. Check it out. And thank you again to Airtouch for supporting. Who's the boss? So let's get into a chat about punting, shall we? Because you know a hell of a lot about the business. Melbourne Cup, given we just had a sip out of them, how do you line it all up? Literally, how do you pick apart this form? A lot of the field hasn't even, we haven't seen a gallop in Australia in public. And a few of these horses, how do you line it all up?
Speaker 1Yeah, it is hard. And I'm doing a show just at home. I just jump on for the King's Own on YouTube, and I'm preparing for that. And what I'm doing is getting all the overseas ratings and normalising them to our scale here so that I can line up these horses because it's so hard in the past. But there's so much data available now, which you can get a lot of information from, whether it be Timeform or a couple of other providers over there, and line up. So that is the answer to your question. I'm getting ratings and sort of lining them up. But then you've got to also factor in travel, whether the horse has had a run here, the track conditions here. There's a lot of the jockey. There's a lot of other different moving parts, obviously, the weight and what they've been carrying over there because they carry a lot heavier. They carry 60 over there all the time. All the time. And they're coming here and they're getting 53s to 58s sometimes. To answer your question, the ratings are really good. That's a good starting point, I find.
Speaker 3Do you put, when they bring their own jockey, do you put minuses? Well, they get it wrong more often than they get it right.
Speaker 2I can't work out how some of them don't even have a ride on
Speaker 1the day before they go out there. Yeah. And to answer your question, yeah, I do. But I put minuses on any jockeys riding at new tracks. And I'll ask you a question. Would you, if you haven't ridden at, say, Belmont and you go over there for the first time, do you, it's like playing away from home. A little bit. And there's little nuances. Absolutely. Did you find that when you were riding?
Speaker 3Oh, absolutely. Yeah. You'd try and have rides before your main ride, number one. Or you would have studied that track up and down. Or you would have walked it several times and try and gather information from other people. But I think what they get wrong here is more the, you know, over there, you obviously see in Europe, they're racing in six-horse fields, eight-horse fields. It's very sedate and leisurely. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And all of a sudden, you've got a big field of speed. Yeah. Even over two miles, we have speed. Yes. And they get lost, don't they?
Speaker 1Yeah. Well, you see defiantly coming out of that, the French race, the Kurgle and his six-horse field and just ambling to the front, just stacking them up and ran really good time. But this is a, Cup's a completely different race from that.
Speaker 3Oh, yeah. He won't get that opportunity again. No. You just don't. You just don't. I mean, and as impressive as he was when he won there, the race set up will not match what we were going to get on Tuesday.
Speaker 2So, the ratings and weighing them, is it a bit like trying to line up currency? Like, obviously, the British pound is different to the Australian dollar, but there's a way of working out what the British pound is to the Australian dollar. Is that the same with ratings as opposed to overseas, how they do it time form to here in Australia and then landing on that figure that might give you a roundabout idea of the ability of the horse? Yeah. It's not an exact science
Speaker 1and you do just, it's, I find, especially in the Melbourne Cup, it's, it's important. It's an important piece of the puzzle. It's an important piece of the puzzle, but it's certainly not everything. I think you've got to, like on my scale, you need to sort of be over 100. I think defiantly leads the way at the moment off my scale at 106, but that doesn't necessarily mean I want to back him. What it means is below that 100, it's with weight adjustments, it's hard to get, you can only improve so much. So, when you've got your ratings at 100, some are 105, some are 104, blah, blah, blah, down. If you're below 100, there's only so much you can improve. If you're 103, you can go, and 106 might regress as well. Yeah. Slightly he's on 106, but he's got to come here in a different, which we just spoke about, a different style of race. He's got 56 and a half and he's had to travel. He's been in quarantine for two weeks. So, if you put those adjustments and, and, you know, the jockey riding maybe for the first time here as well, you put those adjustments back, it's hard to see him going past 106. So, he might come back to 102, whereas a horse that's lightly raced like a point of law might be on a 101 or 102, which is good enough, but you could see him going higher. Yeah. And that's why he's favourite and defiantly sort of around that $11.
Speaker 3We have a lot of history too, don't worry, that we can actually look back on historically and match it up, which is a big, big plus.
Speaker 2Bossy, you've got some horses though that come out here, like a Red Cadot or a Prince of Arran. For some reason, I don't know, like some poms come out here, my old man was one of them, they just all of a sudden fell in love with the sun. Fell in love with the sun. Two shoes last year. Yeah, just flourished in the conditions when you think, oh, no, it's been bottled up, it's a UK horse, and just absolutely loves the sun. And all of a sudden, you don't know until the day that, wow,
Speaker 3it's adapted. They're thrived, yeah. And it can go the other way too. I mean, there's been a slightly like the band a couple of years ago was going to be the Messiah, and he'd come over with it in peckable form, but he's looked slow ever since he's got here. And there was a couple of pieces of his work before the Melbourne Cup where we were extraordinary. You think, my God, how's this horse going to get beat? Because he's just rambling. He's been like an Oakley play-up.
Speaker 1There's been so many spruik horses come over, Deauville Legend and Vauban, and there was one last year, I can't, oh, I fell into it, El Riffa.
Speaker 3Oh, El Riffa, that was another one, yeah. El Riff, yeah.
Speaker 2Yeah, there was one, I remember one back in the day, Drum Taps, where Gay said it was going to win by 100 lengths or something like that, or Oscar Schindler, one of those two. Yeah, they kept going. This keeps going on. He said, oh, no, it's going to win by 100 lengths, it's way better than ours, and then
Speaker 1nearly got hit by the ambulance. Yeah, and then you'll get a red Cadillac 50 to 1 or a goody two-shoes at 33 to 1 sort of thing, where no one's spoken of them, and they will love the condition. So we don't know, like a lot of the time, you don't know, and it is a. He's a bit of a lottery, but that's why we love the race, though, isn't it? Because it's so hard to find the winner.
Speaker 3You're going to get a pretty good price about anything that you like, too. That's the best part, right?
Speaker 1Yeah, absolutely. I think it's $8 at the moment, the Geelong Cup winner. Point of Law is $8 favourite. So the final field, I'm not sure if the Bendigo Cup's gone. We've filmed this right now. No, it hasn't quite. The field will be done by the time this podcast is out, sort of thing. But, yeah, it's going to be $8 a field.
Speaker 2So have you got three hard and fast rules about the Melbourne Cup as opposed to any other race? Melbourne Cup is such a unique race because of this form from everywhere, the prestige around it, and the distance as well.
Speaker 3A handicap, obviously.
Speaker 2And it's a handicap. So all those things. Have both of you got rules about it when you're trying to work out what's going to have success?
Speaker 1I don't because you have too many. The way I do it is that the model generally has all these factors in and it'll sort them out and weight them and all that sort of thing. So I rely on my model at the end of the day. But I also do put a lot of work in myself. So if you're talking about rules, one of them is definitely weight for me. Yes, definitely. The other one's the 3,200 metres. So we've got a horse, St George, which terrific form, second in a Caulfield Cup, fourth in a Cox Plate, but now it's going to 3,200, been tried at 3,200 once in the 2024 Melbourne Cup and ran second last. So there's a 3,200 query there. Whereas a horse like Point of Law, we don't know whether he's going to run 3,200. Ethan Brown and Kira Marseille are very confident. They know more than anyone, but we don't know. So if a horse has failed at 3,200, I'm more inclined to be a bit soft on that. So those would be my two definite. The weight and the acceleration. I'm always looking for a horse with acceleration as well. So weight and acceleration are a terrific mix for a Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 3You need that, absolutely.
Speaker 1When you were trying to work out what to ride?
Speaker 3Oh, well, because I was looking at it from a completely different perspective. I wasn't looking at it as a betting point of view. I was actually just looking at it as a form analyst and trying to work out like patterns and what would suit mine. And I would go through the race and put a pen through like nearly half of them straight away. We'll not run the trip or we'll not be good enough.
Speaker 1So is that your number one?
Speaker 3Yeah. So what I do is I just have plus and minus a lot of them, and then I'd get down to my. I'd top eight and then I'd start pluses and minus and then like, you know, it's what's it's prep like is, you know, will it run the trip and barrier draws conditions of the, you know, track conditions. So
Speaker 1I want to ask you just with Maccabi Diva, why was she so successful over in Melbourne Cups? Because she carried a huge weight in the last. What made her different? What can we learn from her three Cup victories?
Speaker 3She had an extraordinary lung capacity to be able to run the trip. And relax and be able to still run off. Like when you look back, when you get back through her Melbourne Cup victories and any of her staying victories, her sectionals were quicker than most of the group one sprints on the same day over the last half mile 600. It's incredible how quickly she was at the end of a trip. But she was pretty unique.
Speaker 1But you said something there. She relaxed a lot, which is that's huge, obviously over 3,200 metres for the horse to relax. So a horse like point of law, I'm interested in your opinion on this. A horse like point of law, who's, who's coming into a cup having had five starts, I think prior and he's, he didn't relax that well. He sort of, is that a big negative for you?
Speaker 3He can't do that on over two mile. Yeah. I watched his run and he was, he was visually very good because he did a lot, did a lot wrong and, and was still able to beat them. So it shows that he's got a lot of stamina, but he cannot do that Cup day, especially big crowd. If it's warm, he goes down the roses and he gets a bit upset. Cause, cause I've seen them lose their composure big time. Some of these Europeans, well, it's only get the barriers that half their races already run. Yeah. And if he comes out fired up from an awkward draw, or even if he's drawn in and they have to hold their spot, if he gets running,
Speaker 1do you think there's more chance? Cause he sort of, he did that at Geelong. I think he was getting his head to the, to the left as well, which he he's done in his UK races. Do you think because he did it at Geelong, he's a lot more chance to do it on Cup day?
Speaker 3I think, I think he's, I think that way they framed the market offering winner was a massive over, overreaction. Cause I don't think they took into the point, took into all those points.
Speaker 1Yeah. So you're against him.
Speaker 3I'm against him. Cause he simply can't do that because there's too many nice horses in this race, which will run that trip strong out, which will do a lot more. We will do things right. Where you're banking on him at a shorter price to do everything. Perfect. Which I think, I don't know. I don't, I can't see him in a short, in a short time curbing his manners. Yes. He might do it in 12 months time. He might be the favorite for next year. But I don't see him doing it. I don't see him doing it in such a short time.
Speaker 2He looks like the personality, if you put it in the human terms, a 21 year old, who's got a hell of a lot of energy, but by one o'clock on cup day, they've had 10 Canadian clubs. Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty. He's just lost control of himself. He's got 10 girls around him. Yeah. No, he's going to have a great time. Yeah. He's going to have an awesome time, but I'm not sure he's going to win anything. Is he in bed by far? Yeah. He might miss the cup. You know, when you drive out of Flemington on cup day and you go up Flemington road and there's just people laying down in garden beds and things, he's one of them.
Speaker 3I tell you what, you've got to factor back into that equation as well. Sorry to just stop you there, but like Kieran Marr. Yes. He's seen it so well at the moment, isn't he? Yeah. So, you know what I mean? If anyone can sort of concur with the enthusiasm of a young horse, it's probably him.
Speaker 1Well, both Kieran and Ethan said after that race, I watched their interviews, they seemed very confident he'd get 3,200 and their concern was whether he would settle. Yes. But you're right. If anyone's going to do it, whatever he does, he, he, it'd be Kieran Marr,
Speaker 2wouldn't it? It does look like the Kieran Marr testimonial from a local point of view in terms of the calibre of horse that he's got. But Bossy, like towards the end of your career, he was coming through, he was rising quickly. He's now ended up with this. It's not, it's not a stable, it's an operation. Yeah, it is. It's huge. It's like as big as a military. Some countries' militaries aren't as big as what he's got in terms of the satellite operations and everything. What is it about him that he, he has turned into the trainer that he is?
Speaker 3He's very much like a trainer I rode for, DK Weir. I would ride a horse to the barrows or something or in a race and only I'd feel it, like being on top of the animal, like he did something weird or did something. I come back and he goes, what was that horse doing going to the barrows? Well, what was it doing at 600? Well, what was it doing at 1,000? I'll go, how the fuck do you, how could, how would you understand to even see that? Because only I can feel it. So he's got an incredible eye for detail and he's a, he's a true horseman. He understands the language of the horse. He'll watch them parade, instinctively watch every horse parade and he'll, he'll know by the time they've gone to the barrows what one's on or off. He's like, as far as the way their mood is that day.
Speaker 1Well, you get a feel for a horse that hasn't been over 3,200, say it's 2,200 or whether the horse is going to get 3,200.
Speaker 3Yep. Instinctively. You basically go, you're not always get it right, but basically you'll understand that you'll get it right.
Speaker 2When you know, because you've ridden it in a horse, in a race, before it's the ones that
Speaker 3you've got to be more of a student of what they do after their race. Like if they're running through the line and then they pull up and you feel their heart rate drop quickly and their breathing come back, you go, okay, this has got a pretty good aerobic capacity to be able to take pressure. They're the ones, the ones that pull up and they're glazed over, you know, which a lot of them do because they've got a bit of stress. And they just take a long time to come back to you. You go, well, okay, that's probably as far as that horse can go. So that's a feeling thing.
Speaker 2Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. Kira Mar, you mentioned St. George before. This is another, this is another thing you throw into it though, because the trainers are genius and you read everything about the horse two years ago that it had horrible feet. It was basically like running on hot coals because it just wasn't feeling the ground at all. He's fixed that. So are we evaluating him on having bad feet two years ago? We evaluating him on what he did in the Cox plate and the run before that.
Speaker 1This is why the race is so confusing, isn't it? But I will say, one thing, if Kira Mar didn't think he was going to get 3,200. He wouldn't run him. He wouldn't run him. So obviously Kira thinks he's a 3,200 metre horse, but that's why the puzzle is just so hard. That form has to be the form.
Speaker 3The Cox plate. Yeah. You can have the Geelong cup. Yeah. You can have all that. Yeah. That Cox plate, he's running the Cox plate was, oh my God. It was, it was unbelievable.
Speaker 2Gold trip, very elegant areas, wasn't it? In terms of, it didn't quite ping with the,
Speaker 1we knew he was going to get 3,200. He'd be favourite. If he hadn't got that second last in the 24 cup, he'd be favourite. I seen Kira,
Speaker 3literally five minutes after the race, not in there. And I said, mate, there's your Melbourne cup winning. He said, yeah, I think he's the one. Yeah. Wow. Like, and he just had the best morning. And then he went to Geelong a few days later and won that. Did he pull out any cash and say, can you sell him for me? But I just think, you know, like he's run, obviously it's a bit like Cosmic Crusader. Sometimes we ignore the obvious, like he was the form horse going into the Cox plate, but everyone found a way to get him beat. He was ninth up on all this sort of stuff. But the simple fact of the matter was that he was actually the best horse in the race. Yeah. And he actually blew them away. He's running the Coolfield cup was extraordinary. Pulled and pulled for half a mile to get it when he got him in the spot. And he was still had the audacity to nearly win the race. Okay. The question mark is, will he come back in distance? And the question mark is, will he fit racehorse? He's probably going to do it more. He's more likely to do it now than he's third up.
Speaker 1Just getting back to St. George. Amazing. He's never won a black top race. It's amazing. So he's run second, last, in a 2024 Melbourne cup. This is the way I look at it, which is different. He's run second, last in 2024 cup, and he's never won a black top race. It's extraordinary. So how can you – but then you look at the other flip side, which is your angle, which is very valid.
Speaker 2The one rule I have, mug punter, apart from listening to my 10-year-old daughter who's two of the last three winners, including 101, nice choice, thanks to the pink sleeves. Thanks very much, Nyla, was I like an international, but to your point, it's got to have some ping about it. It's got to be able to – You found one? Yeah, trust your instinct. So you look at that race at the Currah and you go, okay, well, it's the Currah. It's undulating and it sounds like the race call is about to fall asleep halfway through. He's got a very relaxed tone, that race caller over in Ireland. But it lights up and it just went whoosh and I went, whoa. And now I understand why James McDonnell went, can I please, Joseph, Joseph O'Brien, so yeah.
Speaker 1Visually, when I went and watched all the videos of the UK runs, visually I thought he was the most impressive for sure. Just that acceleration. The acceleration was enormous. But what worries me a little bit about him, one, the weather's going to play a massive part in this cup. He's not good on a wet track. Okay. And the other thing, he's had 31 starts, I think, and he's carrying 57. And that was, for me, was a little bit of a negative. But visually, I thought he looked amazing.
Speaker 2It's interesting, Joseph O'Brien is dead keen to bring his horses down here. Now, I know he's not Aidan. They're two different people. But Aidan, obviously, has had his issues bringing horses down here. They just don't want to know about it, it looks like, at the moment. But Joseph just chips in in this race. He is desperate to win this.
Speaker 3He'll need to be concentrating on the Breeders' Cup meeting, which is run very soon. Which, for the Coolmore guys, is probably operationally better. Yeah, they throw everything into that meeting. So that'll be his focus right now.
Speaker 2Call of the card. So take us through this one, Kingsley. So this gets a lot of publicity. How does it work? What are some of the things that you've seen are just outlandish at this? Do people lose their senses a bit or their emotions? How are you? Are you involved? Take us through it.
Speaker 1I mean, yeah, well, it's a great day. So it starts at lunchtime. You have your meal. You have a few drinks. A bit of entertainment. Bossy walks in with the Melbourne Cup and gives us an emotional speech about Maccabi Diva, which was fantastic. And then the betting starts, which is the reason I'm down there predominantly is for the betting. So there's four bookies, and they have to bet to win $250,000. Now, for me, that's absolute gold because the minimum bet law in Victoria is $2,000. So apart from that, when I go back to the office on Tuesday, every bookie, sports bet, Ladbrokes, Tab, whoever it is, have to bet me to win $2,000, which is automated. That's basically how much they bet me to win, whether it's, you know, any Saturday. Called your fun a bit, hasn't it? Yeah. So you can get on to winning a million bucks pretty easy with the four bookies. A lot of them bet to win more than, you know, bet to win $500,000 or a million. Last year, we saw. We saw Stake come in and back Al Riffa to win $5 million. So last year's betting was off its head. That's the best I've been the last three or four years. But last year's betting was just going nuts. And the bookies are extremely competitive as well. In the room.
Speaker 2This is on the Monday before the Cup.
Speaker 1Yes. Yeah, they'll bet virtually a bit to 100% a lot of the time, which is a flip of the coin. You know, it's my pick against yours sort of thing. So, yeah, I mean, it's a great day. And you asked about. Everyone gets emotional about the Melbourne Cup. Everyone loves backing the Melbourne Cup winner. And you've got a couple of beers here doing away we go.
Speaker 3So you'll do your form and you'll set your own market. Go in there knowing that, okay, this particular horse, it should be this particular price. You're going there to find if they've got it wrong. That's right. Yeah.
Speaker 1And you get an idea of sort of what they're going to be. So my model will generate after the barrier draw on Saturday night. So I'll wake up on Sunday morning and have a look at the numbers. And then I'll go to the market. And then weigh them up against what the markets are and have a look at, you know, the bookies markets, have a look at the exchange and just get a feel for what it's going to be. The markets change a little bit on Sunday, but they don't change that much. You sort of know roughly what you're going to get. But sometimes you go there thinking you're going to go and back something and for one reason or another you don't get the price that you were after. And then you might wait until the day and back it if it eases out a bit. So you have an idea what you're going to do, but sometimes you don't know until it happens. You might get a better price, a better horse than you thought. So it's just really about. It's really about like all gambling is about getting value at the end of the day.
Speaker 2Yeah. And again, we've touched on this the last time we had you on about, you will not get involved if you feel it's undervalued. So Mug Punter over here doesn't have the discipline to do that. He just wants to try and back the winner and doesn't really care if it's $5.80 or $6.80. Yes. The winner. But you might have that price point where it's anything under six bucks, I ain't touching it. Do you maintain that discipline in a race like the Melbourne Cup?
Speaker 1I'm pretty flexible with prices. I do. I know prices, but I'm not. Some punters stick to them really firmly. I'm not one of those punters. I'll find factors that I like, whether it be a lightweight with acceleration in a Melbourne Cup, and I'll have a guide of what the price is. I might say fairs around that $5 mark or say $8 for point of law, which I'm interested in backing at the moment. And if it was seven, I'd still back it. But if it was six or five, I'll just wait till the day and sort of see what it is. Hope that it fluctuates out just in case. Hopefully it gets back out. And if it starts $4.60 or $5 and it doesn't, and I'm like, I'm not on it. Well, some win, some lose. They don't all win. You can save money sometimes, and you can cost yourself money sometimes. But if you're pretty disciplined in that way, over time you're going to save money.
Speaker 3Will you be at the track?
Speaker 1No, I just fly. I'm flying down Sunday, and then I head back Monday night.
Speaker 3Just say you like a horse, just say. But he walks in the enclosure, and he's just completely losing it. Do you have someone that's going to lay a message and say, I don't know. So how do you put that into your equation?
Speaker 1I don't put it in. I've got no data on it, so I can't tell whether it's going to help or not. If I could get data on it, and I had people in the ring that sort of had history of the data, and I could go back and look at it, whether they're sweating up. Because there's so much to it, and there's so much I don't understand about it. Some horses sweat all the time. Some horses play up all the time. Does that mean that it's losing energy or it's not going to run so well? One thing I do see is behind the barrier is when they get re-shot, or they're playing up, and they put the blindfold on and spin, and they don't win very often. No. Did you find that? Like if you're on a horse, and it's playing up, and it's out of character, that would be a big negative. Of course, yeah.
Speaker 3A lot of them, if they don't want to load, there's a reason they don't want to load. They don't want to run. There might be some pain associated with what's about to happen, and they don't want to go in the barriers.
Speaker 1But do some horses always not want to load? Or is it day-to-day? Should Tarquair at the end of his career? Yeah. No, he just didn't want to jump.
Speaker 2He was over it. It wasn't that funny. He wanted to piss off and go retire. He was too clever. He was telling them. He used to do it in barrier trials. What a smart ass. He used to rock up to a barrier trial, do it, jump fine. Oh, yeah, we're all sweet. Get there, race nut. Up yours. Thanks very much.
Speaker 3There's a great story that Tommy told me. He told us the day when he didn't jump, they trialled him about two weeks later, and he broke a world record, basically, in a trial. And Tommy's like, my God, we can't retire this horse. And John said, well, he's retired now. He was playing with you. He was too clever.
Speaker 2That's funny. Did you ever hop on one in a Melbourne Cup? So stayers, by nature, they're not highly strung sprinters. They can still be highly strung horses because the occasion can make them highly strung. You've got marching bands. You've got singing. You've got national anthem. You've got guys who have had the 10 Canadian clubs throwing rose petals into the mounting yard and things. Did you ever jump on one before a Melbourne Cup and go, oh, no, I'm dead meat here. This horse ain't handling this?
Speaker 3Yeah, I mean, I did ride a couple that you just knew that, well, I've got a job ahead of me. Try and keep this one calm. You know, like you were just trying to do everything in your disposal to keep it really calm. But I don't think I ever rode one that I thought, oh, my God, I'm completely dead here. And that I thought would run well. I've had it when the barriers open. I've gone, oh, shit, I'm in trouble now. Sir Dragon, I missed a start by a length and ran fifth that one year. He basically should have won.
Speaker 1He came over without a run, did he? No, I won the Cox Plate. Oh, that's right. I won the Cox Plate.
Speaker 3I won the Cox Plate on him that year.
Speaker 2Is that the COVID Cox Plate?
Speaker 3Yes. And then that was the year that he, what's the name, led? Joy McNeil led. Oh, Twilight Payment. Twilight Payment. Twilight Payment. He led and I missed the start badly and got bottled away on the fence. And by the time I got the winning post first time, I was eight pairs back further than I wanted to be. I'm in a world of pain and just had to type me medicine. And he ripped home. And you remember the horse that broke down on the home straight, Huey Bowman? I went up inside it. It hit me. Oh, no. It kind of everything went on. And he ran fifth. Like he was, he should have clearly, he should have probably won the race, yeah. Could have had a spare one in front of us. Yes, would have been nice, wouldn't it? But would have, could have, should have.
Speaker 2Yeah, that's right. It still captivates. Like I've seen the commentary around, oh, well, it's not what it used to be. It's just evolved, the Melbourne Cup. And that's why I feel it always has a place. Like obviously things evolve. The Everest has evolved. Yeah. It's not a bad thing. It's made Caulfield Cup into a stronger day.
Speaker 1Yeah, I saw that Caulfield saying that the Caulfield Cup was bigger due to the Everest, which is fantastic. Yeah. I think the Melbourne Cup's still number one for me. Like it's, from a betting perspective, it's definitely, number one. one yeah pool pool was pulled through the roof so they're still up there oh yeah yeah absolutely
Speaker 2melbourne cup's big yeah talk us through the whole combination of the totes um you know you still got your so lab breaks at the moment they're doing wonderful things they could give a little 10 bonus yeah well
Speaker 1that breaks off 10 on on the one tote so on saturday on cox plate day we had um whirlpool yep so whirlpool means there's international money coming into the pool predominantly from hong kong and that's why you see favorites like car ying rising paying a dollar and four cents and a lot of the favorites are paying short through the one uh through the world which means there's a there's a bit more percentage in whirlpool so instead of 117 or 118 there's 122 123 so there's extra four four percent say in whirlpool but when the favorites are uh very short it means the the longer price horses yeah you know you find value sort of thing you can find fair value in those longer price ones but uh yeah the one totes just come in which is the merging of the three totes um great for recreational punters as in that the pools are big if you especially on the smaller meetings so yeah um you know your dogs and your trots or your monday tuesday racing you can go and you're not affecting your dividends so much because if you walked into the tab on a lot of these you have 100 bucks on something it will affect your price so much so yeah i hope that um i hope it really builds up especially for the exotic betting um but yeah i think i think it's gonna i think it's gonna be big actually i think it's slowly gonna take off i think the tab will put a lot of promotion into it and i think it'll be great for
Speaker 2the industry yeah needs it needs all the help it can get because there's obviously divergent needs from the industry to government and taxes and all that we won't go into it right now but it feels like sometimes the the racing industry or the racing industries um feel like a bit of the modern day tobacco they're just taxing it to the eyeballs and it's like don't go too far here guys because they're not going to be able to do it they're not going to be able to do it they're not the whole thing could and you look what's happened with tobacco and you've got all these um off market say products available and it's just well people will
Speaker 3find a way yeah they'll find a way if they if they want to have a smoke they'll find a way to have a smoke if they want to have a drink they'll find a way if they want to bet they'll find a way whether it be underground or other ways you know so you can't but it should
Speaker 1be a great challenge as well like gambling should be a challenge you can win i've won like i've done it for a job like you can win gambling it's not going on playing a pokey and that's and i said this on another podcast we shouldn't be embarrassed about the gambling side of it like it's not something hidden or you're doing something wrong it's like you know it's a challenge it's a puzzle we're sitting here talking about different angles that you can you don't play a poker machine there's no angles no you're just donating 10 or 10 percent or whatever it is into a machine and the things are rolling around it's also a great social event going out to the races it's a real you know it's a day out it's a lot of fun you made a nice
Speaker 2donation on everest day um for whoever you're back carrying rising with you know it's a day out it's a lot of fun uh it doesn't know how good you felt about it but that in isolation you mentioned just before we jumped on that you got a dollar 60 about carrying rising now it's jumped on the whirlpool thanks to the hong kong dollar dollar 04 but really its price i think was around a dollar 35 on track dollar 40 did you feel horrible that the horse got beat or did you feel some sense of satisfaction that you still got the price that you were really after to back the horse definite sense of
Speaker 1satisfaction i don't like i don't beat myself up over results if i had have taken you know i haven't pulled taken a dollar 30 and had you know some big bet on it at a silly price i would beat myself up over that like i i have some really good days where i'll go home and go gee i didn't handle that day very well and i'll look at it i don't really focus on the results or all the money i'm focusing on on the the way i'm doing it the performance you sound like a footy coach yeah well it is because you know it'll catch up with you
Speaker 3because you got it right on the day the result might have been your way but you actually got it right because you know obviously k had no luck one had all the luck so you actually got it right but just the result was wrong so it's about the
Speaker 1process that you follow in and a lot of that is the price you take it's also about the selection but a lot of the selection work with the model is done sort of during the week and every week and i'll stay up late putting different factors or finding a new factor putting it into the model whether it be how overseas horses perform or you know how kieran mars performing with these first up horses or or first go at 3200 and just trying to find angles that nobody else can find that the general public aren't finding okay and it's a constant process of trying trying to you know update the model and be one step ahead of of everybody else whether and that that wonderful term track bias yeah yeah i've done a lot of work on track bias recently and just discovering different angles and whether it's it's actually uh is track bias um on pace horses or whether it's wind involved or is it the actual lanes of the track and actually trying to get to the truth by just looking at the data of if whether it you know it is actually a thing because in general a lot of leaders win just by you know chance yeah that's right the horse in front's generally the fastest horse to get to the front and it's more chance of winning so yeah i mean there's nothing that you can't look at now because a lot of the um a lot of the things where there used to be value like a time rating which i spoke about before or sectional ratings they're publicly available now so the edge on them is gone the bookies have got them so you've got to try and find things that the bookies aren't by developing them your own algorithms out of those numbers maybe or dissecting them or looking at sectionals out of fast run races compared to slow run races or different distance bands with sectionals and just anything anything weird and wonderful you can sort of think of that nobody else is thinking of
Speaker 3you can find on a day where leaders have won you know say seven or eight races or on pace you can find the horses that have run on really well and go okay that's if it gets to a fair track or whatever yes you can go whether it be wind or water or whatever you can find the horses that why it why it wasn't it was leaders day you can find the if you're smart enough you can actually pick your bones out of the meeting and find winners well
Speaker 1i love i used to love backing horses coming out of mooney valley on cox plate day that ran well and then backing up into the into the flemington is such a and horses that might have got back on the fence and were unsuited by the valley and then are suited by that big flemington straight it's just yeah there's so many different angles
Speaker 2quick one cox plate does it belong at mooney valley after we've had it at flemington yeah absolutely confirm it
Speaker 3yeah absolutely yeah it was a great race and great cool and they got a good crowd um and and the vibe was there the energy it's flemington of course it's going to be great but it's just got to be at the valley it just it just
Speaker 1hopefully it's there
Speaker 3next year yeah well the the grass is already down it's down now so there i spoke to michael there about three months ahead of schedule at the moment oh great stands won't be up but they're um you know like the the um the fight what do they call the the stands you can put up the main put some
Speaker 2temporaries up temporaries up
Speaker 3which are unbelievable like you see on in the bird cage you know they're amazing they're like a proper home so they're going to put all the temporaries up this year that'll be awesome and then the year after she'll be back on you're going to race on um the eve of the grand final that's on the first september yeah wow
Speaker 2yeah okay that's their opener yeah um but flemington had to look ahead of the carnival by the way it's like it's it it's a little one for the track manager to have to deal with thankfully it wasn't a bog no it wasn't a heavy 10 so it doesn't have to repair the whole
Speaker 1track but the rails in the true from saturday which is a little bit different so derby day the rails in the same position which they've raced on on um cox plate day obviously so be interesting to see how that rail holds up i
Speaker 3think it'll be great it i walked the track it was um hardly marked it geez he does an amazing job with that bloke so you know for mine i think it's going to race nice and true real good should we try and find a winner please well there's mate there's plenty there bossy's gonna
Speaker 1tell us who's gonna win the cup i reckon
Speaker 3i found one i yeah i think i have so we're
Speaker 2gonna go through uh derby day golden eagle day oh golden eagle that's a good race and also uh the cup so here we go bossy's best so thanks to ladbrokes let's rip into bossy's best with help from kingsley as well uh bossy you can go first victoria derby group one over 2500 meters for now more on that later yep but the winner uh call me i think the
Speaker 3market's found him i just love him because he's drawn barrier three and he's just gonna get the sweetest run he'll race on speed he seems to relax and do all the right things at the moment like stormy marco you have to like him but he's drawn 16 where is he going to get to and is he that is he that good i'm not sure but call me air for mine uh 460 and i think he's got a bit of class of anything this
Speaker 2horse you like anything uh one that you don't really want to get involved
Speaker 1i thought there's a lot of pace the other thing that worried me with call me was the the amount of pace in the race there's a heap of speed and 2500 meters obviously for the first time i'm i don't i'm not a big derby man with horses going to the 2500 meters for the first time but i thought stormy marco would be very hard to beat and i also thought true rebel who was backing up seven days from last week um those were the two at the moment for me you reckon
Speaker 2though it could be the last 2500 meters there's a lot of talk around again that it needs to go
Speaker 3back to 2000 i think it's serious talk i mean the talk's been for two decades and the noise has got a bit more but i think i'm hearing now that it's stronger than ever that this race probably will go back to be 2000 meters and then they'll get the best three-year-old colts and geldings you know some of them that you know i think that some of them might back up back up out of or some of them obviously the guineas i'll go to the 2000 um and you got horses might three might come out of the cox plate and run you know so i think for mine it'd be an absolute plus if they went to 2000 meters you
Speaker 1haven't seen many horses come out of derbies and go on a lot of derbies and oaks they've they've sort of been weak the next year. Well, they're spring three-year-olds.
Speaker 3They're only babies. I've only just turned three. Yeah. So they're not even anywhere near mature. Yet when you go to the, obviously the autumn, they're a lot more mature. Six months down the road, they're all mature horses.
Speaker 2Yeah. Now to the group one down the straight, the Coolmore Stud Stakes. It's a breeding shaping race. One of those for the three-year-olds. Bossy, there's some high quality sprinters here. Have you worked something out?
Speaker 3Oh, this is, honestly, this is the hardest race to find. The next episode's absolutely airborne at the moment. And I love the way he trawled the other day. He just went to it and had a little easy trial. Proxima Dea. Proxima Dea. Paradoxium. Oh, sorry. Paradoxium. Paradoxium. Did you see the way it trawled in the straight the other day? He's only had one run down the straight and he was pretty impressive.
Speaker 2Yeah. Bjorn's celebration was pretty impressive too that day.
Speaker 3Yeah, Bjorn's. But I tell you, what he trawled the other day, like a proper horse, but word of warning, I've seen him trawl like that and leave it there.
Speaker 1I bet up on him last start. Did you? Did you? Paradoxium, yeah. And he stopped pretty quick. He went hard, but he stopped pretty quick.
Speaker 3He stopped quick. So, okay, I'm going back to the horse that's proven. He's got a great record is the next episode. He's drawn 14. He's going to get the perfect run. He unleashed an unbelievable sprint the other day when he beat Natural Fling. So, but I think the favourite, he's going to be very, very good.
Speaker 1He won't worry about all his forms on wet tracks. Yeah, I do. Soft and heavy.
Speaker 3I do get that. But he showed the turn. He looked good. The turn, he looks good. He looked real good. You know what I love about him? Kingsley, when he's put to the sword, when he's actually asked for a real supreme effort, oh, my God, he lifts, which I just love for a colt.
Speaker 1Yeah, he attacked the line last start, didn't he? He looked like he was no hope. No. At the 100, and then he just went through it. Yeah, he was strong through the line, for sure. I thought St. Goddard had a chance. Guy like two horses coming out of the Golden Rose, St. Goddard, and also under focus was about 20 to 1. I thought he had a chance as well. And you see at the Flemington 1200, these races, you can often get a result and something, just comes through the middle at 20 to 1. So I thought it was a pretty open
Speaker 2race, very open race, but a wonderful race. It's really elevated. That particular race in the last 10 years, it's become one of the standouts. See what he knows.
Speaker 3He knows how to win a cool more. I think he's won seven.
Speaker 1Yeah. So Tono Glow looks a real nice horse as well, which won that Paradoxium race last start.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's a ripper. It's $4.80 to win, and it's only had one run down the straight for a win, which is key.
Speaker 2For the ladies. Empire Rose Stakes, Lady Shenandoah is the favorite. CJ Waller, he's always there and thereabouts. The Flemington Carnival sets his horses for it. Almost an odds-on favorite, Lady Shenandoah. Fair enough, Bossy, or have you got something else?
Speaker 3Oh, well, she goes to set weights. She carried 58 kilos and was unbelievable in the two rack. She has set weights. I tell you what, though, Surfing Bird will give it a run for its money. I know it's got to go up in grade, but it's just winning. It's hard to ignore a horse who just keeps stepping up and winning. It's got a great race pattern, gives a really good kick. So if Lady Shenandoah runs into any traffic whatsoever, Surfing Bird, it'll be off and gone.
Speaker 2All I can think of when I hear Surfing Bird called in a race is Peter Griffin, the family guy, singing it for half an hour of a whole episode. I don't know if you're a constant. I was singing it on Saturday.
Speaker 1I had a good go at Surfing Bird on Saturday. Yeah. I found one at about $7.80. $7.80, Concord Connie. Concord Connie? Who's third up. You got Connie down?
Speaker 3Yeah. The big
Speaker 1track will suit. Yes, that's exactly what I thought. Flemington will suit.
Speaker 3She's had two goes at Flemington for two wins.
Speaker 1I thought she was great value. She got a group one in her Connie, I think. I don't know if this is going to be the one, but I thought at $8, each way is a terrific bet.
Speaker 3Yeah, I've got her in my top three.
Speaker 2Well, there's going to be a few Concord Connies and a few Concord Cams and everyone else, thanks to IPE. IPE events are there on track. Flemington, all four days. Cup day sold out, but you never know. You can sneak in there if you want to. There's always room. Give me a call. There's always room. Give Bossy a call. They'll fit you in. But all four days, great location. Bossy, Flemington Carnival. Corporate experience like no other. I popped my head in Everest Day to check it out, and it is unreal. Everyone's having a great time inside the room. Easy access to the bar. Easy access to have a bet. Easy access to your mates. What else do you want?
Speaker 3I'll be there all four days. So even that's just worth coming for.
Speaker 2It's the same as you just hold yourself up in the office. I mean, you should really get out occasionally and get down there. I'm sure the guys will look after you if you made it there. Why not? You can get a gig.
Speaker 3Yeah, I can. Oh, mate, I love it.
Speaker 2Too busy sitting there in your shorts and thongs, punting for Australia on a Saturday night.
Speaker 1I'm happy. I'd be happy sitting in a room by myself just betting all day. Yeah. Naked. Wow. Wow. Hey, there's a podcast.
Speaker 2Naked punting. Yeah, the naked punter. To Randwick on Derby Day, but to Randwick, the Golden Eagle, which is now a group one, of course, she's an alibi, has been set for this race. They tried to talk her out of it to get to Cox Plate. Didn't want a bar of it. Gone to the Golden Eagle bossy. Does she just win for Peter Moody and Kath Coleman?
Speaker 3Oh, I think so. Listen, she's arguably the top two in Australia of horses. Her run in the Caulfield Stakes was, oh my God, it was good. Under pressure. From a long way home, from home, and just never had anything taken.
Speaker 1And 2,000 metres for the first time.
Speaker 3For the first time, and was, almost stole the race. Looked like it was going to run fourth, and then she just steals the race, almost. But I don't think that, it's three weeks in between runs. Getting back to the trip won't bother her, because she's got so much class. And you've seen what a, I don't have to go far to see what she did at Randwick last time she was there. Yeah, oh my goodness. She goes better, I promise you, the Sydney way than Melbourne way. Yes. I've seen her switch legs. She leads in Sydney, and she finds a fresh leg, and just goes whoosh. She doesn't quite do that the same in Victoria.
Speaker 2Is that her Queensland upbringing, potentially?
Speaker 3I don't know. I don't know. Her biggest stats runs, or her biggest highest rating has been in Sydney so far.
Speaker 2She's nearly touching evens here.
Speaker 1Yeah, I saw $1.90 earlier today.
Speaker 2Are you snapping off hands to get that?
Speaker 1I think it's a fair price. I think $1.90. I think it's absolutely a fair price. I thought she'd be a little bit shorter. I thought Bavock was the only danger, if it's leader-ish. If it's hard to make ground, I could see Bavock beating her, but she looked very hard to beat.
Speaker 3He went too hard on Bavock the other day, didn't he? He just went a little bit too quick, and he was still good.
Speaker 1I think he's the only horse that's got it in him in that field, to knock her off.
Speaker 3Yeah. Autumn boy, you've just got to wonder where he is. He's running too many indifferent races for mine. I know he's third favourite, but I think he's running too many indifferent races. He was okay in the abstract. But he was just okay. You know what I mean?
Speaker 2You would have thought if he was flying autumn boy, he would have run in the Cox Plate last week. Yes. You would think? Yes, 100%. But $10 million race for the four-year-old, the Golden Eagle. She's an alibi. The only thing that sticks in my mind is Peter Moody, as she barely pulled up in that race at Caulfield, and he was interviewed about getting beaten. He was saying, all honest, the land legend beat her, who obviously fell down a hole last week, didn't back up. He was worried that it was maybe a gut run. Now, can that happen, Bossy? Or coming back in distance actually kind of negates the possibility that she's just expunged everything in that run and doesn't have anything for the next race?
Speaker 3I don't. It might have hurt her for a couple of days, but she's a fit young horse, and I think she would have bounced back. And Peter Moody, he's a master, mate. He would have put her in the paddock for a week and just not even cast an eye over her. So you go and do your thing for a week and then brought her back. Listen, she's got so much class. It's got turn of speed like not many have in Australian racing. So you just can't ignore that. She's just so good.
Speaker 2And we've got to sit here and give a Melbourne Cup tip, don't we? Yeah. I'm Australian, if we don't. I know. Bossy.
Speaker 3I'm with St. George. I know what you say about him, but I just love this horse. He runs so good in a Caulfield Cup. And I just can't get that. The image of what he'd done on the Cox Plate, he was almost half. I don't know. Blake Sheen was just riding there, and all of a sudden he just presented and ran well. I mean, he was ridden to do that, but I think Blake Sheen's pretty happy about he's riding the Melbourne Cup this year.
Speaker 1Kingsley, final word? If I were going to tip something now, it would be point of law. I just can't get that Geelong Cup out of my head. Got taken on in front. And the acceleration at the end was just amazing. Kieran Marr and Ethan Brown say he's going to be better over 3,200. Right now, he'd be my top pick, but I do want to see what the track conditions are and how much rain we get, barrier draws and all that sort of thing.
Speaker 3So a lot of water under the bridge before they jump. Yeah, there's a lot to play out.
Speaker 2I haven't consulted my expert, my 10-year-old dog yet. Yes. However, I'll go trust your instinct at this stage because I just like that fact that J-Mac's on and he hasn't always had a runner in the race the last couple of years, which is just insane. When you think about it. But I think he's picked a good one here. So we'll wait and see. That was fun. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Man have learned all things punting. Mate, I hope you go good at the call of the card.
Speaker 1Yeah, thanks. I won't die wondering. No, no. That sounds like your Melbourne Cup. The race is an afterthought. Yeah, I'm done on Monday. That's your three o'clock Tuesday on Monday. I don't even want to watch the race. I'm done. That's it.
Speaker 2That's my grand final Monday, the day before. Big thanks once again to Airtouch, to Ladbrokes, the Plot Studios, where we are. here in Sydney to record this. edition of Who's the Boss? And thanks for watching on 7 Plus. Again, obviously the Golden Eagle coverage coming your way on 7 this weekend. So, Bossy, that's us. Have fun with IP events, the four days of the carnival. We'll see you down there at Flemington floating about and no doubt we'll hear what you get up to on next Monday afternoon.
Speaker 3And what about next episode of Wolfdean? When's that out? Thursday. Thursday? Yeah, Thursday. Well, you better watch that, everyone.
Speaker 1It's a Derby Day preview. Yeah, watch that, everyone.
Speaker 3And you'll do a cup one as well before the cup? We'll do a cup one Saturday night, yeah.
Speaker 1Yeah, once the Barry Draws come out, we'll do a cup one on Saturday night.
Speaker 2Oh, you've got the boys hanging back on a Saturday night to do some ball work. I'm the one hanging back. Thanks, mate. Thank you again. And check us out next week. We've got another special guest on the way on Who's the Boss? Hope you enjoyed that video. There's plenty more content like that on this platform. But, Bossy, what do you need to do first? Adam, like and subscribe. It's that simple. simple. Like and subscribe. Plenty more from Who's the Boss on the way.
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