Speaker 1ladies and gentlemen welcome to the preview that stops the nation the melbourne cup is only days away now cashy joined by nick how are you mate i'm good mate i'm good
Speaker 2um it's been a good weekend so far and it's always good to get another pod done 4 p.m on a sunday for a tuesday melbourne cup how
Speaker 1good yes the melbourne cup special we do it every year it's the race that everyone wants to know how to win your mom your dad your uncle your brother's dog is going to text you on tuesday asking for tips so we put this out we go through literally every runner we tell you why they can win why they can't win pretenders contenders how are we betting into it what you got to do to you know get your sweeps or get your mystery trifectas on and all the different ways that you can play the melbourne cup your same race multis your exotics okay we tell you exactly how we're playing it and then put our opinions out there for you to play it in your own way if you so choose to yeah it's
Speaker 2good it's a hard race to pick that's for sure it's it's one where everyone kind of rolls out and anything can win on the day which you've seen in the last couple years um oh yeah for sure i don't think we've we've actually picked
Speaker 1one yet no my second tip has uh won twice that's the closest we've got uh we've come second we've come third but neither of us have actually nailed a winner okay you came second last year though with goody two shoes so that's the closest we've been since uh uh i came second all the way back to very elegant when i was on spanish mission uh and very elegant was my second tip so it got up so for those of you at the end when i tell you what my second tip is just note that that might win because it's won twice now um but let's just start by just going through the field mate take us through the 24 horse field that has been assembled for this year's melbourne cup um
Speaker 2yeah mate it looks good you've got sons and lovers is your number one trust instincts is in there too nice choice middle earth verborn gets another run around um nth jar royal supremacy wine dark sea coming back asterix goody two shoes is back as well juja kibo the aussie chance hope will rock one smooth operator soul spain zaran so you are future history james j braddock uh kaisler kislyak point of law strictly business mr monaco zakuma and chocolates takes out your field mate so long field big field um but look there's a there's a big big things you need to consider so what what are you i just want to ask straight out what are some things you're considering when you go through
Speaker 1your melbourne cup well when you gotta go to the melbourne cup you gotta know one how wet is it going to be on the day how dry is it going to be on the day there is some weather around but all of the weather experts say no more weather than enough to get us to a soft five at worse because there was weather around on derby day and the track held up very well so and the track is recovering very well it's sunny at the moment but on monday there is meant to be rain but they don't reckon because you know flemington is the best drying track in the country we shouldn't get anything worse than a soft five if the max amount of rain that's been predicted comes down if obviously more rain comes down it's a different story but they're predicting for a anywhere from a good four to a soft five on the day so you don't have to worry too much about the weather like the only thing that that worries is maybe the ones that needed your soft sevens heavy eights to really come into it i also like to look at the weights we always look really hard at the weights here don't
Speaker 2we mate yeah it makes a big difference though 200 meters is as long as any horse is going to run in in australia and um having a top weight most of the time doesn't help um it doesn't about the end of the day it's all random like gold trip top weight a couple years ago won the melbourne cup it's it's all different things i will say we went through and we wanted to see now the ai's playing a big part in in life in general we we asked it what are some trends over the last 40 years that you can get what race have they come as a winner come out of what how long has it run like how many how many what races have they won like what's the trends that we need to
Speaker 1see i just got it to assemble one massive report instead of me having to go through all the different websites and it came back with a lot of valuable
Speaker 2insight it came back with a 60 page document 60 page
Speaker 1documents of all the things you need to consider for a
Speaker 2melbourne so if that doesn't tell me that it is an absolute punt i don't know what is so look at the end of the day you can pick what you want um but honestly no matter what my number one thing if you get anyone in the sweep just keep your ticket genuinely i've said throw your ticket out a
Speaker 1few times but just keep your ticket everything i will read from this report the weights and why they're important though um this is the last 25 years right uh 12 of the last 25 winners have carried 53 kilos or less um 10 of those last 25 have carried 53 and a half to 56 and a half only three of one over 56 and a half and also in the last 10 years it's gone through and given me the podiums in the last 10 years only four horses have placed in the melbourne cup carrying over 56 and a half kilos whereas 26 have you know obviously placed with 56 and a half or less almost half of them have played of the placings have been made up with 53 or less kilos so the lighter the better like we're not joking when we say half a kilo can be all the difference in a melbourne cup so i'll go through some of these key historical facts that this report has given me okay these are all the historical facts and stats and trends that you need to know to find the melbourne cup winner a favorite hasn't won the race since 2013 only 14 times in history a female has won this race 17 from the last 25 winners jumped from a barrier wider than 10 and four of the last 10 have actually jumped from wider than 17 six of the last 10 winners carried 53 kilos or less eight of the last 10 winners had raced in june okay so you're even looking at the calendar have they raced in june that's one of the interesting stats that have come out in the last 10 years seven of the last 10 cup winners were beaten at their previous start 21 of the last 25 winners were aged in the four to six age range and overseas trained horses have won three of the last 10 melbourne cups but none of the last five so we always talk about the international raiders everyone always knows i'm always on one but they haven't won any of the last five the last to win was twilight payment in 2020 our first go at trying to tip a melbourne cup to the people when we were tipping it just to our mates before we ever did the podcast that's the last time every time it's coming oh the boom import the boom import and a locally trained horse has won each of the last five so those are things that you really do need to consider guys is there anything historical wise that you came across in your findings
Speaker 2uh not really like it's i i think we spoke about it last week on the potteds i think racing is changing a little bit where you like to i guess the cup's always been a bit different but um horses that are running deep into a prep seem just to be getting fitter and fitter these days run your horses run your horses get the distances in and we'll wait and see but um yeah there's a lot to go through today so look mate do you want to go through the speed map
Speaker 1yeah that's the next thing to consider where are these horses going to actually end up in the run okay it's a little different than a regular speed map because they've got a long way before the first turn to actually settle but your lead has probably come in the likes of point of law wine dark sea kislyar on pace you'll have your so you are n farz sons and lovers future history goody two-shoes royal supremacies midfield will be made up of any combination of asterix hopewell rock mr monaco's a ran trust your instinct in verban and your back half of the field it's going to be strictly business juja kibo middle earth zakuma james j braddock knights choice solar spain chocolates and one smooth operator again that's in no means telling you where in the relation to the rail it's almost impossible to predict that because they all just jump they all find their spots but that's where they usually like to run from obviously there's usually always one horse that does the opposite of what they usually do and there's usually a few horses that end up in positions that they were heavily predicted to be in and everything goes out the window because it just is so unpredictable that first couple hundred meters of the melbourne cup as they all shuffle in some get caught wide even though they were meant to be on the fence some that were on the fence end up all the way at the back instead of being up on speed because they missed the jump it's a lot to take forward but you would think that your leaders would be probably point of law considering that what he did in the uh the geelong cup and he's drawn in barrier nine perfectly but we'll touch on that in a bit mate when we go through them runner by runner is there anything that you want to touch on before we get into the runner by
Speaker 2runner no mate i'm ready to go
Speaker 1all righty mate so this is where like i mentioned we're going to go through every single runner of the melbourne cup we're going to give our reasons why they can why they can't and declare pretender or contender the way we do it you're a contender if you can win the race you're a pretender if we think the best you can do is run second or worse okay so we're going to start with horse number one mate sons and lovers joseph o'brien trains dylan brown mcmoneagle comes over for the ride it's carrying 57 and a half kilos out of barrier three it's currently 23 and a half kilos out of barrier four it's going to be an intense race it's going to be an intense race it's going to
Speaker 2be an intense race it's going to be a lot of fun it's going to be a lot of fun it's going to be a um ran second last start was good enough after leading all the way to win in in that race just got it done top weight is probably the only problem but we've seen with gold trip um it can get it done so hasn't had an australian run but giving it a go here
Speaker 1yeah contender you just have to have him as a contender because he ticks most of the boxes that you need from him does he travel yes he's literally raced and i think it's five different countries this will be his sixth different country that he's raced in this year um the distance no query he's won at 3 000 meters and has stayed out um 3 200 meters multiple times without winning at it uh drawn softly to get a pocket on the fence so when they fan late he should get every chance for those of you who aren't aware of who dylan brown mcmoneagle is he's the equivalent of like a jmac zach lloyd hybrid at the moment like jmac ability with zach lloyd's age um so massive plus having him on board the biggest query is his class though he's been given top weight nick despite never running in a group one race so if that doesn't tell you that the field as a whole this year is a real mix of classes i don't know what does
Speaker 2so i will say so we should have mentioned this at the start i actually like this field for the melbourne cup a lot better than i have in previous years i don't know if that's because a lot more of the aussie chances are in here but um it's going to be a good race i think it
Speaker 1will be a good race as well and i think this shows that it's a very even field there is no boom in port there's just ports okay there is no like this is the one you need to get on it's going to piss in it's going to hold most of the money i think the money is going to be spread out over this field like crazy so you have to think considering though he's never run a group one race he got the top weight maybe he's being beat by the handicapper here but he should be in it for a long way we move to number two trust your instinct joseph o'brien also trains this one jmac gets the ride he carries 57 kilos out of barrier 18 currently your second favorite in the market eight dollars to win two dollars 80 to place
Speaker 2surprise here i'm going with pretender i know it's a hard one with jmac on board um but out of everything i think it's just got a little bit going too much going against it being seven years old i think is is not where we read into four to six is the age range that the history kind of kind of leaks to barrier 18 is kind of getting to the spots where you're not loving it hasn't run this in australia yet and is yeah there's a lot against it for me and i just think that's going to be enough to not get it a win but if i'm wrong i'm wrong
Speaker 1look he doesn't match the historical profile uh barriers against him weights against him uh ages against him as you mentioned and you're paying the jmac tax on him i think he's a great chance i've got him as a contender i've got him as one of my better chances uh i would have loved a better price but you are paying the jmac tax i reckon if anyone else was riding him he's probably paying 13s but i've also watched this one and i think it's going to be a uh in person i watched him when i was at the car back in june mate um sorry back in may i was even on him i have i had a ticket on him that day and he came second to a horse called purview that same thing happened that next start purview is a fantastic horse in europe so it's very strong form also has form around our riffer which was last year's big boom melbourne cup horse jan brugel and scandinavia those two are elite elite european horses this horse won the car cup with 62 kilos on the car and he's a great horse and he's a great horse and he's a great horse so he stays we know that he carries weight he knows that we know that so that's two massive ticks if he's able to stay with weight but another massive tick is his turn of foot in a melbourne cup punters you need a horse that one can stay the distance but also come crunch time when that last 400 meters is on they need to have the turn of foot to be able to actually go to that next gear when being called for who's going to be flailing who's able to go to that next gear when you get down under pressure when the you know when they call for it they say at the clock tower you go i reckon he's a horse that can tricky barrier but as long as he grabs the back of a smart horse and not a speed bump he can really get going when it becomes a slog and also has wet form has dry form yeah i think he's one of your better chances in the race nice choice oh my old friend okay simmons and lax and robbie dolan rides 56 and a half kilos 34 dollars to win uh
Speaker 2pretender for me no it's a 2024 win winner but drawn in and has drawn the inside but carrying five kilos more than when he won he's seven now and he just didn't look great in the caulfield cup either so pretender for me yeah it'd have to be
Speaker 1a hell of a story wouldn't it uh the first time around was a good enough story didn't really get to fire a shot in the caulfield cup had to dodge that fall but i'm not sure it would have mattered you mentioned he carries five more kilos it's a very significant amount of weight in a race like this i'm not ruling out anything but the win though um not bashing him like i did last time i'm not saying he's finishing 20 lengths last like last time i could realistically see him finishing very very well uh but i think second uh could potentially happen a win will be a stretch too far so if you want to play him in your exotics and your same race multis and your top tens i think great top 10 chance if no rain comes and it's a red hot deck but uh i can't see him winning number four middle earth kieran ma trains the first of the ma brigade and mark zara right now kieran ma trains the first of the ma brigade and mark zara right now kieran ma trains the first of the ma brigade and mark zara right now 56 and a half kilos out of the very first barrier 14 to win
Speaker 2uh contender um he's been there thereabouts this prep just running along nicely you got to stick with the ma camp at the moment i i'd say uh mark zara on board is an absolute positive as well um drawn a good barrier on the inside as well um and then yeah in the in the in the cox plate just ran home nicely yeah we'll see how we go contender wouldn't be surprised we'll be in my
Speaker 1exotics he's humming one of the best local chances in the race mark zara's on when obviously no he knows how to win a melbourne cup the horse stays we know that third in the cup last year has the exact same setup as gold trip caulfield into cox into melbourne cup now um and was flying in late in both of those so barry is a little sticky doesn't want to get shuffled too far back but if he finds the gaps he will be there late uh and kieran ma like he's just he's just he's just he's turning water into wine at the moment so you've got to trust that he's going to get the best out of this horse on grand final day we move to your old friend number five warben gay water house and adrian bach trains jordan childs rides he's uh got 56 and a half kilos this year round out of barry 22 and the market doesn't like him this time he's 61 to win 15 to even run a place
Speaker 2yeah pretender he's just there's just way too much against him nine years old carrying 56 and a half drawn terribly and wasn't that impressive in the john cup either so came ninth um yeah in his last three cups where he was definitely a better better horse he what he came 14th 11th and 6th so it's definitely worse for wear out of those three and can't see him getting any better than those would you stick
Speaker 1him in a top 10 multi would you get on him probably not i wonder what his price is for top 10 honestly but i've looked at a few horses their price for top 10 and he's not one that i checked out i think he's one that's you could potentially play for top 10 because that's probably the best you're going to get out of him uh nine year old at your fourth attempt i think that would be the craziest result ever in a melbourne cup and we've had some crazy crazy results um number six n far roger varian trains ray dawson rides 56 kilos at about 8 21 dollars
Speaker 2to win um i'm your pretender did come third in this field he is seven carrying 56 is going to be harder barry eight is um is not too bad but i just think there's a lot of better chances in this one i just can't see on top i
Speaker 1tossed and turned with this one a lot he's got a lot going for him he's got a perfect barrier to get a nice cushy set up on the pete oh nice cushy sit up on speed he's the highest finisher in a corfield cup here cosmic crusader and saint george finished around him they both won and ran a super cox plate uh respectively um but the distance is a massive query with him his fitness gave out a little bit at the end of the corfield cup there over 2400 and that's the max distance he's ever gone so i worry he's going to sorry i worry if he is going to see out a strong 3200 a placing or a top six run sure i can see that but i feel like when you get going or even when you get to that last 200 he's just going to fade bigger key to sushi vibes i think there will be a point late in this race where he will look the but it will be very briefly and he's just going to get past in the final stages um so i'm very happy for anyone to put him in your wider exotics put him in your top sixes but yeah i just can't see the fitness giving uh in the late stages there number seven royal supremacy kieran ma trains ben allen rides 56 kilos out of barrier 21 46 dollars to win
Speaker 2uh pretender for me barrier hurts as well um finished 17 lengths back in the corfield cup and what 15th in this race last year so yeah not nothing too sticking out for me for royal supremacy
Speaker 1unfortunately yeah it's a pretender for me as well i mean came into the corfield cup was a huge chance i thought was given a poor ride ended up finishing 15 lengths off him but even then he didn't really scream like he's going to get 3200 like he did last year like we he was coming into this race last year going nah he's going to get the 3200 and then didn't really like you mentioned so He now carries five more kilos and he was going much better last year. The fact that Kieran Marsey's trainer is the only real positive for him, I'm happy to say he's not going to win. Now we get to number eight, a really interesting runner, mate. Wine Dark Sea. Harry Charlton trains Damian Lane. So it's an import with an Aussie jockey. That's always a bonus. But he's drawn the 23rd barrier, carries 56 kilos, and he's currently $41 to win.
Speaker 2Would have been my tip, I say, before the barrier draw. Backed it in the Caulfield Cup, ran 11th, wasn't anything crazy, but just didn't really get stuck into his work. Great silks as well. The best silks in racing. Best silks I've seen. I'm going to go a very not confident contender. I would have been on him at a lot of other barriers, but just at that barrier, I can't see him really getting there, but I'm not going to rule him out just because anything can happen in a cup. So no one has come from out there in 20 years, which is very, very. Terrible odds if you go, but honestly, he's going to be in the exotics for sure, I think. It's going to be a lot of value to get in the exotics because he should run home well, but it's going to be hard, but I don't want to rule him out.
Speaker 1What did I tell you about barrier 23? I think it was that they haven't won, but I think barrier 23 has come second three times in the last 25 years. So it's random that maybe it is because they're so far out wide that they just can't get to the win, but they keep coming second. I was all over him coming into cup season, as I mentioned in our Caulfield Cup preview. He drew a shocker barrier in the Caulfield Cup, which was the reason I wasn't on him then, and I think it got him undone then. He's drawn an even worse one here. He has to work to get to the front, which is how he likes to run. He's going to have to really, you know, probably use a little bit of petrol there, but it depends how hard they go. Like Defiantly got scratched in this race, which makes it a little easier because Defiantly was going to be your land legend prior to Jenny-esque, where they said that they were going to jump, kick, and try and set a really hectic tempo. But the vets ruled him out. So maybe that makes it easier for him to find the front here. Who knows? He should stay the 3,200. I doubt his ability, though, to find an extra gear comes slog time because he really likes to just get out in front and roll along and do his own thing. And I don't think he gets the opportunity to do that here. Similar to Enfa. Kuda Sushi vibes. I think there might be a point in this race where he looks the winner and then he'll fade. Place at best. Happy for you to put him in your exotics, that's for sure. We get to number nine, Asterix. Chris Waller trains. Jai McNeil rides. 55 kilos at a barrier. 667 to 1 to win.
Speaker 2Pretender for me. He's got a good gait. Yeah, just getting a bit old. Ran 12th in the Caulfield Cup. Has run at 3,200 meters, so we'll get the distance. Came fourth in the, I think it was the Auckland Cup a couple of years back. But I just think there's just better chances out there.
Speaker 1Pretender, but similar to Knight's choice, I think, in the sense that I'm happy for you to put him on everything except the win. He also didn't really get a chance to fire in the Caulfield Cup because he had to dodge that fall, and quite frankly, he was really lucky he also didn't go down. I thought he was a cheeky first fours and top same race multis in the Caulfield, and I think the same here. I've had a look. $3.10 for top 10 at the moment. I would gladly take that. If I was to be playing one horse for just a top 10 bet, I think Asterix at $3.10's your bet there. I don't see him winning, but I think he's going to put in an honest performance. Number 10, your tip from last year, mate. Goody Two Shoes. Joseph O'Brien trains. Wayne Lawton. Wayne Lawton rides just like last year, but carries 55 kilos this year out of Barrier 19. $26 to win, $7 to place.
Speaker 2Pretender, unfortunately. Yeah, ran second last year at 41s, but yeah, carrying 3.5 kilos more than last year. Eight-year-old mare now, Barrier 19, just too much against her.
Speaker 1Yeah, look, I've got it as a pretender as well. We know that staying isn't an issue. We know that turn a foot late isn't an issue, so we know that if she gets the breaks, she's probably going to be there or thereabouts. We know that wide gates aren't an issue because she was out of 20 last year. She profiles as a horse that can be in the finish, but as we mentioned, 3.5 kilos in one year on. It's a significant jump. I'd have her in your exotics, but I think that weight will be what bogs her down and stops her from winning in the end. We move to number 11. Now, we're going to be really interested in this horse, mate. It's a favourite of ours at the Mock Sports. It's Jujube Kebo. Kieran, Mara Trains, Sammy Clipperton rides, 55 kilos, barrier 14, currently $10 to win $3.40. He's your third favourite in the market.
Speaker 2Contender. $11, a round about that. So, yeah, won the Metropolitan and then the Mooney Valley Cup. Yeah, last start winner, workable gate, just misses the weight where we would have wanted him at. They slammed him after that win. But honestly, I still back him in here. Um, to, to get it done. So Jujube is a big contender for me.
Speaker 1I reckon he would have been my top tip if he was anything less than three and a 53 and a half kilos. If he came into this with a little bit lighter weight, I genuinely would have gone. Oh my God. Yes, please. He's in my numbers. He's a contender, but I just don't have him on top. Thanks to that weight. Um, look, he's tactically versatile. He can run from the back or the front gets it done in all conditions. Albeit. He's one of the ones that will hope for rain. Rain will significantly increase his chances. Um, I think he's the best local chance. Uh, he's two main queries. Is that way? Because the second query is he's had one run at 3,200 and that was a very, so, so running the sitting cup. So to be fair, he's a completely different horse. Six months later, Kieran Ma has got him the best that this horse has ever been. He's cracked the code with him, keen to see him. And I, I would really like to see him run more. Even if he doesn't win, I just, I would love to see him put in a good run, because we've followed him a lot. We've been with him just about every start except for the Metropolitan, but yeah, God, you just do us proud. All right. And shout out Tom, the owner that always tunes in. He's in the chat. Good on you, Tom. Alrighty. Number 12, hope. Well, rock. I don't even know how to pronounce that trainer. So I'm not even going to try, but Zach Lloyd rides 54 and a half kilos out of barrier, 15, $12 to win $3, 60 to place.
Speaker 2Contender, um, decent price. Um, five-year-old right in the weight line that we are liking, um, coming off the second last start, um, does arrive in Australia without a run. So on T also untested at the 3,200. Um, and we haven't had a winner from out that way come since 2020, like you said, but I don't think those are trends that you really need to consider. This is definitely a contender.
Speaker 1Yeah. One of the leading chances again, in my mind, he's able to handicap run was really strong. Only. He just got pipped and the Ebel handicap used to be one of the main races. You looked at for the international, that sort of dropped off in the last few years because they haven't been running very good, but historically the Ebel handicap has been good form for a Melbourne cup. He kept working through the line. That was at 2,800 meters. So I don't think 3,200 meters looks to be one that he won't stay out. Uh, he also seems to have turn of foot when the push comes to shove at that clock tower. I think when he gets to Zach Lloyd, you know, we know he's going to put everything into this ride. He's a different, right. And then when he rode in the Melbourne cup for the first time, a few years ago, he came 20th, I think on his, uh, ride a few years ago, but he's back and he's a much different rider. He's much more tactically versatile as a rider. He'll be able to put him in the right spot. The question will be just if he's fit enough, considering his last run was over 70 days ago, but he did run in June and history says strangely that that's a big plus. So definitely a chance there. Hope will rock number 13, one smooth operator Fitzsimmons trains, Declan Bates, 54 and a half kilos. Area 13 81 to win a
Speaker 2similar to the born pretender, um, has won a Geelong cup and a Mooney Valley cup before. Um, nine years old this year, right? Ran 11th in this year's John cup. And in both Melbourne cops were, I think he was a better chance to finish 12th and 16th. So I don't see him getting on top here. So pretend that for me,
Speaker 1yeah, it was a huge chance two years ago coming off the John cup, only managed 12th. And then, I don't think he managed 16th last year. His past suggests that he can stay the distance, but he's yet to do it in Australia from two attempts. So it's pretty clear. He lacks the ability to do so in such a high pressure, top-class environment. So I'm happy to pay him number 14, soul of Spain wallet trains, Tommy Berry rides out of barrier five, 54 and a half kilos, 39, sorry, $34 to win $9 to place.
Speaker 2I've got him as a pretender. I know he passes a lot of the checks that we're saying, um, and was second in the Sydney cup. That he's only 1300 meters start. I even, the core food cup as well is the one that's kind of keeping him out for me. Just didn't look great. And I just, there's better chances for me. -
Speaker 1Yeah. Pretender, just an uninspiring effort in the core field cup. It just gives me no confidence headed into this, but like we do know that he stays the distance and that we'll have him finishing closer than a few on that alone, get to cheat run on the inside. You'd think from that barrier, while a grand final or science point to a solid honest run without threatening for the win top 10, multifiller, I wreck or a wider exotic play. If you're desperate, I think that's the best you're going to get out of him. I can't say him winning the race, um, but good luck to you if you're on him. I know quite a few people who are on him, so good luck to those people. Uh, but I won't be one of them. Number 15, Zaran, Kieran, ma trains, Ben Melon rides, 54 and a half kilos out of Barry, 11, $26 to win. -
Speaker 2Contender for me. Um, good each way odds. And I definitely wouldn't mind this. If you have a bit of a roughy chance, $27 is a good price to have five year old. Um, and ran what fourth in the course. field cups not too bad um from a gate right in the middle that so did really well um i think if he improves he can win um so that's why i put him down as a contender
Speaker 1for me yeah it was sixth four lengths off in the core field cup um and honestly i've got him as a contender not on top though but it wouldn't be the first time my core field cup tip came out and won the melbourne cup after i jumped off um but he was only fair in that core field cup i reckon but he did close off a little bit he he seems like a horse that would much prefer a flemington to really get going down the straight um the distance is a clear career for him obviously but i do think he has shown all signs that if he does get that distance he has that turn of foot to be able to be still kicking in that final 400 meters needs it to stay dry though i think that if a lot of rain comes that probably rules him out um but if he gets a dry deck a win would not shock whatsoever so i'm happy to have around around there in the finish in my numbers number 16 so you are bjorn baker rachel king 54 kilos at a barrier seven fourteen dollars off that bendigo cup win mate we talk about running your horses half yours last year was the horse that was up forever so you are has been up since march so can they repeat it what are your thoughts
Speaker 2on this horse our contender good price has won four straight including the bendigo cup like you said drawn a good gate and at 54 kilos it ticks all the bosses boxes hasn't really raced at an elite level though and he's um bjorn has said he's likely to race near the lead while about 80 of the last 10 winners have settled ninth or worse is something that i've seen as well so okay we'll wait and see how that kind of looks but um bjorn's flying flying as well and i think you just got to back it in
Speaker 1contender yeah i mean as we mentioned light cummings the king of the cups he was adamant that if you want to win you need to run your horses and get at least 10 000 meters in the legs and what does this boy have let's just quickly count the uh count the distance that this horse has in its legs it's quite a bit you got 2400 that's 5k makes it seven and a half that's 10k already before you even get to the start of august he's got probably 15 000 plus meters in the legs so i looked silly last year when i wrote half yours off for the exact same reason he always just looks like he's got another lap in him so i think he is going to stay okay he's drawn well to find his right spot he can certainly hit the front with 300 to go if not earlier and hold them all out honestly massive contender even though bendigo cup has never really been a real good form like not many winners have come out of a bendigo cup but i feel like this has been the best chance to come out of a bendigo cup in a while number 17 future history hickman trains 53 and a half kilos about 12 51 to win
Speaker 2pretender um weight and gait are fine the nine-year-old running in uh in a cup where it's it's not as good as its last start so 2023 cup finished 15th and it's gone downhill from there so pretender
Speaker 1yeah i was on it that year did nothing um and also he's not going anywhere near as good as he was headed into that race uh i don't think he even stayed but apparently he's not going anywhere near as good as he was headed into that race the owners were very keen on getting him back to the cup even though he seems to have his best form around the middle distance mark uh he also has three and a half kilos more on his back then that time a few years ago when he was in the cup top 10 absolute best all right number 18 in what could be one of the more interesting authors ever named james j braddock all right joseph o'brien trains craig williams rides from barrier 24 okay 16 dollars to win four dollars 30
Speaker 2um similar to wine dark sea contender um very very asterix next to those two but the barriers have not helped these two imports really um four-year-old that's doing pretty well still got a decent price um well backed everyone was pretty a lot of people were really really keen to see this horse get into the cup 53 and a half kilos is good um but yeah outside gates really gonna impact but look i don't have the balls to give it a
Speaker 1pretender i do um i wrestled with this one for a while though 24th barrier is really the only thing that got me to penny him eventually 24th barrier hasn't won since the year 2000 and also hasn't placed either he's a young horse he's only a three-year-old he's been asked to go to the distance for the first time traveling for the first time now gets the car park uh he's got ripping form signs point to being able to run the distance any import three-year-olds have a pretty decent record in this race but i just reckon place at best in the end but i'm very happy to be wrong very very happy to be wrong with this horse kisly ah joseph o'brien trains bow mertens rides 53 and a half kilos at a barrier 20 um 35 dollars to win currently
Speaker 2pretender for me um 35 dollars came in for defiantly and he beat that horse at royal ascot over the 4 000 meters jeez that's a long race yeah he's a he's a hurdler so we know he stays um yeah he's well beaten in the mooney valley cup and barrier 20 hasn't produced a winner from the original draw it's it's it's a tough one has just more against it i just think there's better chances pretender i was very keen
Speaker 1on him until i saw him first up in the mooney valley cup just poor only way to describe that run would have to be a pretty big form reversal to come out and win this now but hey crazy things couple years ago prince of penzance won the melbourne cup however many years ago all right so the one big positive is he's a hurdler like i mentioned so we know we'll get the distance whether he's fast enough is a different story i'm gonna say no he's not but hey like i said crazier things have happened now we come to the field favorite currently 6.50 to win 2.50 to place point of law kieran ma trains ethan brown rides 53 kilos at ninth barrier smash them in the middle and he's here at a lightweight what are your
Speaker 2thoughts here uh contender it's um it's hard to get onto a favorite but um yeah this is one of the better looking ones we've seen passes every check that i've got four-year-old covering sorry four-year-old carrying 53 and a half oh sorry 53 kilos um from middle gate and the geelong cup winner on debut was just unreal so look the knock is the price i guess i don't know if many people are going to be able to win this but i'm going to be back in that at 6.50 but definitely commands respect and definite contender in my eyes
Speaker 1yeah look he absolutely just looks uber talented on geelong cup day and i said in the corfield cup um preview that i was keen on him if he got a start on it wasn't actually much of a chance but i said he's sneaky melbourne cup chance and geez more than a sneaky melbourne cup chance he he's very much so well deserving to be favorite here um but you've just got to be able to get over the fact that obviously favorites don't always run well like i said i believe it was what was it 2013 the last time we had one year favoritism one in 12 years nick so that's one thing that you've got to sort of uh take into account there he's lightly raced only five starts in the career um the big question with this horse is how he reacts to the day apparently he has been known to get very rattled on race day he's a big yard watch we know that melbourne cup day has brought many an import undone because they're not used to the noise and the atmosphere of the day but he has been the royal ascot which shows that he does have some big day experience obviously he used to be owned by the king bred by the king um so the king rode um ran him at royal ascot in the carnival this year didn't win on at royal ascot but at least that's some sort of form to show that he has been through a big atmosphere parade ring with you know 60 000 people at a track cheering but if he rocks up his best he could absolutely smash it he's a big yard watch we know that melbourne cup day has brought many an import so we know that melbourne cup day has brought many an import so we know that he could absolutely smash them he could be a future star in australia um or like many an import he could rock up he could sweat up he could freak out and he might run you know 10th like who knows but i think he's favored for a good reason and he's obviously one of your better chances i'm no idiot to try and write this horse up and try and go against the grain as i try to sometimes number 21 strictly business carberry trains yendall rides 53 kilos 81 to win at a barrier
Speaker 2with a lightweight um and gate four but she was last of 16 in the mooney valley cup and 12th in the herbert power just not good enough for me those two runs
Speaker 1were very poor yeah no thank you with this horse i think it's making up the numbers so shocked that she actually pressed on to the race after that mooney valley cup run i would be surprised to see her run any close to the finish but now that i've said that that's probably going to win and i've actually got a shout out to toby seawood he's licking his lips apparently at this horse because he reckons on some bookies and even betfair it'll get out to like 300 plus so he's like 100 i'm gonna have money on it because it's the melbourne cup anything can happen and if you get the horse out at 300 i'll gladly be taking that he's a braver man than me because i don't think it's going to be coming anywhere near the finish um number 22 mr monaco kieran ma trains jabez johnston the uh apprentice rides 52 and a 16 23 to win contender um
Speaker 2won the bark cummings and third in the mooney valley cup carries 52 and half only 3200 meter start was the 11th in the sydney cup um and written the only other thing i'd say it's negative written by a 20 year old apprentice which who knows if the occasion might get the better of the apprentice but we'll wait and
Speaker 1see yeah that's what i'm thinking as well he's only two years into his career i believe he had his first racing start in tassie on melbourne cup day a couple years ago
Speaker 2so we'd love to see it on him for
Speaker 1getting a ride in the cup this early in his career that's for sure um look i mean this is the one that in every preview i say it scares me the most by penning it i've penned it pretender he's lightweight he's in form potential rain around he's going to come right into us because he swims the problems though i think outweigh the positive failed in the sydney cup so the 3200 is a query he's jockey like i said he's only been riding for two years you but to be fair kieran mars got him flying like he's got every horse flying i reckon it'd be a great effort to finish in the top six i think that's a win for this horse but again i'm very scared that i've got that wrong number 23 is akuma graham beg willie pike rides 52 kilos barrier 10 27 to 1 um i'm going
Speaker 2pretender um yeah not not much that's really giving to me fifth in the power and last in the crystal mile um leaves the form question i guess with me um i just like better chances in this one so i'm gonna go pretender
Speaker 1yeah i mean he's too big positive is the fact that he has willie pike and i'll wait other than that i don't really see why this horse is at 27 i'd mark him in the 50s and again watch him win now since i said that but just a strange setup such a strange setup set around like he got sent around at 2100 meters a couple starts ago and then he's back to 1600 meters for what was basically a trial they never put him into the race and now back up to 3200 bizarre as they say run your horses and he's been up since may so the residual fitness could be enough to get him in the top 10 at very best uh we round out the field with number 24 carrying 51 kilos harry coffee maybe rides because of the fall on the weekend he's still fighting to be past fit uh but he's still currently planning on riding kieran ma trains 51 kilos like i mentioned out of barrier 17 11 to win 350 to place
Speaker 2chocolates contender um she's the lightest weight in the field absolute bonus um i guess as well you can't deny the fact last 20 years you've only had one mare win and that was very elegant so it does um have an impact but look i think she can't be left out just for that reason so um i think she's a good chance forms good enough to go off good contender chance
Speaker 1yeah fits almost every historical figure you could look at apart from the fact that she's a mare she's aged between four and six she carries 53 kilos or less her last start you know finishing in the top three fits because historically they might not always win but they usually finish in the top three running 17 days or less since its last start fits because of that fitness that they get she seems to stay with multiple wins at 2500 meters obviously 3200 meters is different beast especially a high pressure 3200 meters but 51 kilos on the back turn off the bike and she's going to be on the same level of comfortability come crunch time i would say that other than juja kibo she's mare's best chance to win it and potentially the second best local chance to win it quite frankly i think she's going to run a really really really good race okay so that rounds out all the runners and before i get your pick mate one more thing to consider when it comes to horses is their starting price on the day so we mentioned that favorites don't always win but they usually are ten dollars or less so 12 of the last 25 winners have started ten dollars or shorter eight of the last 25 have started from 10 to 20s and five of the last 25 have been genuine big roughies 20 almost and i mean honestly considering the knight's choice and prince of pan's answer to them sometimes they're they're 50 or more so we've gone through them all now who have you settled on as your on top selection uh on top
Speaker 2for me juja kibo we're gonna stick there 11 um wine dark sea it was a close second but barrier just took out for me but yeah juja on top sticking with been absolutely on top this this prep um but yeah happy with that
Speaker 1i've settled on trust your instinct i i've been on him for a while i've been waiting to see how he rocked up in the country so i'm and apparently from all reports he's settled well uh and they're ready to go he's the second favorite in the world and he's going to be the second favorite in the market they say he might even firm into favorite i hope that doesn't happen because that happened with my horse last year and as we know favorites in the cup don't have a great chance um but i think it's only that short because you're paying the jmac tax uh but i think he's a great chance maybe it's a little bit of personal bias because i've seen him run personally but i just think he while he doesn't tick the weight and age and barrier i just think he has those two main things that you need in a melbourne cup stay the 3200 meters and in that 400 meters when you get asked to go to another gear he's able to do so so i think when it comes to crunch time he's going to be one that's able to knuckle down and keep going and keep going forward while everyone else is going backwards so trust your instinct is my tip in the 2026 melbourne cup my second pick for those of you who are listening is boring but it is point of law so if that wins that becomes the third time that my second pick wins instead of my top pick uh now mate if you had 50 to play on this race if i gave you a crisp 50 note how are you staking it usually you go for a bit of your own topper and then you play your exotics is that what you're doing this year
Speaker 2yeah i think i think you just the only way to bet on the cup is you gotta trifecta in first for it i might have a bit more of a go this year because um there is a couple different chances um you know what i'll probably split ten dollars across the five top chances that i think which um we'll talk about as well in a sec so i've got juja on top i've got wine dark sea running a top five zaran running a top five middle earth and point of law they're my top fives running out so a couple different things i might box you in the first four might box in a trifecta and put some money across there and we'll wait and see but um yeah for argument's sake i'll go 25 on juja and then i might just trifecta box those five for 25 25 why not sure we'll do that
Speaker 1um i've gone 20 each way on trust your instinct and then just 10 to win on within um within the law geez um not within uh the law point of law um just in case i mean if it's at that price i i profit 15 i know it's not a not a lot if the favorite gets up but my main play is that 20 bucks each way on trust your instinct i think that he's a he's a good wet red hot chance to be in the finish there as i've mentioned um so usually i ask for your first four and then i'm over the line mate but we're gonna do something a little bit different now thanks to uh dabble they've got this new initiative it's called the perfect five okay in the feature races this spring you've had to pick your first five in order and there's a little bit of a a big pool that goes into it and if you pick it you share that pool with others so their melbourne cup offer this year punters is a five dollar bet it's five dollar bet pick the first five in exact order you get up to a two hundred and fifty thousand dollar payout okay the payout gets split equally between the winning bets obviously 18 years old and over t's and c's applies what are you prepared to lose today set a deposit limit for free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gambling helpline.org.au okay and if you like any of our picks we're going to be playing a lot of horses on cup day on oaks day on everything you can use code mock sports let them know we sent you the link will be in our show notes okay but like i said if you're doing so set a deposit limit think about what you'll be buying instead but nick you've got to give us your perfect five who is your first five over the line and in exact order to try and get us a share of this 250 000 payout pot we've got
Speaker 2juja on top we've got second place point of law third wine dark sea four middle earth and fifth zaran lovely
Speaker 1i've gone trust your instinct first point of law second chocolates third and fifth zaran lovely i've gone trust your instinct first point of law third hope well rock fourth and then i've also gone zaran to run fifth there mate so those are our perfect fives again if you want to be copying them or you want to get on your own perfect five head to dabble use the link in our show notes to sign up and gamble responsibly when doing so and now mate that brings us to the famous cup quaddie we hit it last year let's try and hit it again let's get it up for the people all right there we go all right our quaddie for cup day race seven the melbourne cup itself we've got trust your instinct wine dark sea juja kibo zaran point of law and chocolates 2 8 11 15 20 24 race 8 milson's point barracks renarsan mr natural 1 2 5 13 race 9 shadava oh too good dance to the boom button up princess 2 3 4 12 race 10 book lek porter cash never rain, no fuss, 1, 3, 8, 12, 13, $50 gets you only 10.42%. But this is the biggest quality of the year. It's the biggest pool of the year. Even if you get 10%, it'll pay out. Even if all the favorites win on the day, it'll still be a very nice payout because it is the biggest pool of the year. Same thing with your Melbourne Cup first fours, your trifectas, they almost pay off your mortgage every year because it's a massive pool and there's always usually a $50 horse that runs in there Nick and spoils it for people that thought that they had it home they always go their mystery trifectas and go oh I had two out of three, oh I had three out of four in the first four and just that roughy came along and got it done, we'll be playing lots of mystery first fours and trifectas won't we, it's one of our favourite bets
Speaker 2on the Melbourne Cup Dave, yeah it is, that's the way you win
Speaker 1and honestly guys my dad always tells me this and I always make sure to tell the listeners please make sure you don't go silly on Cup Day, it's literally the hardest day to find a winner because every race outside the Cup sucks okay, anything can win on the day, whether that's at Randwick whether that's at Flemington, whether that's on the 50 tracks around the country that all run on Cup Day, just try and stay within your means because it's very easy to lose money on Melbourne Cup Day, it's very hard to win money on Melbourne Cup Day but if you want to just throw a bit of money into a pool and see what happens, we've mentioned it a couple times, sweeps, Nick and we've got a few sweeps this year don't we?
Speaker 2Yeah we do if you're interested we put it up in the broadcast channel broadcast channel, so if you're also not in that we post a lot of our stuff in there, so if you want to keep up to date even if, I know it gets a bit annoying sometimes just mute it and then click on it when you want to click on it, but yeah, get in on our sweeps they sell out pretty quick, so if you're watching now and I think we've had a good couple listeners in here today, if you're interested go get it done now because it will sell out by probably tomorrow. Yeah so
Speaker 1the way it's going to work is we've got 10 this year we did 6 last year and they sold out so quickly we decided to add an extra 4, we've got one $5 one, one $25 one, one $50 one which only has 7 spots left, the $25 and the $50 ones right now, so if you're listening head there now and get in, and then we've got 6 sorry 7, $10 ones just to make it nice and easy for you to have a bit of a play, the way a sweep works, if you've never heard of it, okay you buy a ticket tomorrow night, Monday night, 6pm we're going to draw them randomly you might get Wine Dark Sea you might get Enfa, you might get whoever in the field, and that's your horse and if you win, you get 60% of the pool if you come second, you get 30% if you come third, you get 10% it's just something fun to do, you get to cheer on an extra horse, you maybe bet on one, but then you also realise, oh my god, I just lost all my money on the cup, I didn't hit any of my exotics, but hey, I got my ticket in the sweep in that one, so I've got some sort of payout, okay so head to the link in our show notes as well, it's the tipping portal, you need to register with our tipping portal that we run the Great Spring Tip-Off through, okay, to make it nice and easy, and you will have all your sweeps there that you'll be able to click on, enter in and pay as you go, okay just logging in doesn't enter you you need to log in, register go to the sweep section, press enter pay, and once it says you're entered then you are in it to win it okay, Nick, is there anything else to talk to the punters about?
Speaker 2Nothing for me, Sabaj in the race before the cup is the only other one I'll be betting
Speaker 1on, so. Oh, you never bet on any other race in the cup day.
Speaker 2Race 6 Sabaj, favourite, $2.60 other than that, have fun, just watch the race, don't put too much on, have a bit of fun, mystery trifectas if you really want to bet it's going to be a good race this year good couple chances yeah, be safe, don't be stupid race 8, 9 and 10 you're not going to get a winner from, don't even try people try and chase it, like if you do you've got some balls, I'll tell you that but yeah, make the right calls guys, thank you for joining us got nothing really else to add.
Speaker 1Yeah, so if you've loved what you've heard, make sure to tune in this Thursday, we'll be going through Champions Day, and then the next few weeks after that we'll be going through Hunter Day and the Gong Day, but yeah if you're ever, if you're new here the Moc Sports, the Quoddy Poddy, if you liked us give us a like, give us a share, give us a subscribe give us a 5 star rating on Spotify give us a 5 star rating on Apple Podcasts alright, and tell your friends about us, okay hopefully we've steered you into one of the correct courses in the Melbourne Cup it's the hardest race to tip, we've done our best all I can say now is good luck. Big dance big dance, oh jeez is it just Gringotts race again? seems to always be Gringotts race I mean, we'll have a look at it obviously we'll be tipping it on our social at themocsports on Instagram um, but I mean yeah I mean, it seems to always be Gringotts Gringotts, he never really gets wins unless it's in these races these days, but yeah, keep tuned for our Randwick tips, we'll put them out on we'll put them up on our socials but yeah, see you on Thursday for the regular pod. See you guys
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