Speaker 1all right welcome everyone to the winning edge investments melbourne cup 2026 preview our previous previews with luke murrell we've tipped the 21 winner gold trip in 2022 they've also tipped the quinella potted a couple of favorites who ran on place in 2023 we both had the nine dollar winner without a fight on top between 24 warp speed at 40 to 1 was beaten the nose what would have been a huge uh huge result and again the two favorites buckaroo and one smooth operator were both potted and uh ran on placed and then 2025 luke rated half yours for four dollars 15 at one easily at nine dollars and again he potted the heavily backed favorite corsage nocturne he was eight dollars into 550 and ran 19th and then in the caulfield cup preview uh luke murrell take a bow you not only tipped the 26 winner kingswood but you actually tipped the first four in your top four selections which paid 19 603 dollars i think across the three caulfield cup and historical sort of melbourne cup previews we've done so far ahead of this has been something like 25 000 uh views so plenty of people who um i know people who would have saw that right there with your top four selections running in the top four and playing nearly 20 000 that first four we talk about the exotics every year luke and uh trifecta dividends in the melbourne cup in the last four years of average around 15 000 and the first water in the average around 335 000 so there's plenty of money to be made on the uh on the exotics but but luke uh firstly uh well done yeah i got a lot
Speaker 2of random texts from people i had no idea who they were but um while i like while i very much appreciate the text i appreciate money more so it would have been good if they sent money instead of text but look it was um yeah it was pleasing and um now that you say that maybe the dividend should have paid more if i said nothing but anyway that's what we're here to do so um no it's good look as i've touched on before i think you know there's plenty of races like you follow yourselves like you blokes for the day-to-day racing and you can find those five and twenty dollar winners melbourne cup and caulfield cups these big pool races i think this is where you want to focus on your you know trying to get a a good amount of money that if it can't change your life it makes a dent in something that you're trying to achieve and um yeah i just i can't wait every year i get depressed straight after the melbourne cup because i know i've got to wait another 12 months you know and it's such a good opportunity so hopefully we can find something this
Speaker 1year yeah fantastic and you know like i said we had about 25 000 views on on youtube with our previews so far i think over 20 000 watched this preview last year quick introduction i'm dean evans uh punter and founder of winning edge investments luke murrell of course the uh founder of australian bloodstock who's raystoned and syndicated two melbourne cup winners protectionist and gold trip and adam henwood welcome as well to you thanks again you've spent 10 years building a melbourne cup and caulfield cup database covering every runner trend and key metric and you've added a whole lot of uh really insightful information here for our our preview on the melbourne cup so welcome to you
Speaker 3thanks dean thanks for having me really
Speaker 1quickly quick competition comment your melbourne cup tip under the youtube video uh subscribe to our youtube channel if you tip the winner you get a the choice of uh winning edge investments monthly membership with up to 397 dollars or if you're a member of a winning edge investments membership will become a member before the cup we'll upgrade that to a quarterly worth up to 987 dollars just one tip in the race and chuck them in before one o'clock on tuesday to be eligible for a prize we'll go through some of the historic profiling factors some of the really key factors you've found from your database first adam so one of the first ones here is this factor of uh melbourne cup winners having a run in
Speaker 3june or july yeah i put this one um on twitter and it's just something interesting that's happened over the last 12 years where um of the 24 possible cornella horses um 18 of those had had a race start between this this small window between 10th of june and the 2nd of august so it's a 54-day window um primarily those horses that make up 75 of those those cornella spots are are sort of mainly from two possible profiles so horses either having a queensland winter prep or those uk irish euro trained horses who have come over um there's two others gold tripping our man in there that make the the full 18 but yeah it's primarily a queensland winter prep or the uk irish euro um trained horses um i think in this year's cup we've got out of the 24 there's nine horses that don't have that window they haven't had a run in that in that june or july period um but the other 15 have had it so i will be touching on that later
Speaker 1yeah and you've got got that up here on this next screen here um yeah most of the horses qualifying apart from middle earth warband one smooth operator solar spain's are around strictly business mr monaco and zakuma
Speaker 3yeah and i've put in there uh juja kibo and uh and and uh zaran who's around just misses out his four days prior to the window and juja kibo in typical ma fashion has given it a a red hot trial where run a barrier trial by 1.3 lengths um just just outside of the window so although it wasn't a race start i've just put it there in that in that different color there because it might be a bit of an outlier
Speaker 1all righty and then in the the main i was lead ups interesting data there that's sort of the cox plate and geelong cup outperforming the caulfield cup in terms of winners to runners
Speaker 3yeah these are just the five key races that have sort of run between 17 days and and obviously six days before the cup with for the bendigo cup um obviously you got the caulfield cup with the most number of runners um it's about six runners per year and you're getting sort of seven winners and 19 top three finishes um but yeah the cox plate is is the red hot um dynamite statistic right so you've got 40 runners in the last 26 years um where they've had six winners and and 10 top three finishes um if we want to have a look at a pattern for each of those five races the the trend is in the caulfield cup top seven and beaten um a beaten margin of less than five and a half lengths so you've got 15 of the 19 horses that ran top three fit that profile um cox plate there's no real pattern for the top three however five of the six melbourne cup winners actually finished outside the quinella in the cox plate which is quite interesting so they didn't run first or second in the cox plate they ran sort of third to ninth um for the geelong cup that's always top two so yeah they've got a win at geelong and that's seven from the nine um possible top three chances and or it's an overseas raider that's having its first i was laid up at geelong that's six of the nine top three finishes um mooney valley cup top three in mooney valley cup and carrying less than 53 kilos uh in the melbourne cup and that's four of those five horses that ran top three and bending a cup really small sample size no real pattern but they always carry close to the minimum with the with the lone winner being nice choice right yeah
Speaker 1and in terms of horses that have uh run in the melbourne cup before and i think we've got about six of them this year that have that have raced in the
Speaker 3race before yeah so the six they're up the top at the sort of in the yellow highlighted 20 year 2026 so that we've got nice choice one smith operator goody two-shoes and then we've got a couple of horses that have run in the smith operator goody two-shoes middle earth vauban and royal supremacy um so since 2000 seven horses have won the melbourne cup after previously having a run in the cup right and they're the horses sort of at the bottom of the spreadsheet there so you've got without a fire very elegant twilight payment fiorente uh maccabi divas two second and third cups and then brew um so the pattern here is um six of the seven were having a second attempt at the cup when they won um all seven had run in the cup the prior year uh five of the seven had a starting price of less than fifteen dollars um in terms of weight so five of the seven had a weight increase of one kilo or more and six of the seven all carried 55 kilos or more which i found quite interesting and i think the big the big takeaway here is this last point around a1 form so these these horses that then ran in a subsequent cup and then won they weren't just your average horse right these these horses were elite horses who would run in the the the spring majors right so you had without a fight winning a corfield cup very elegant third in the cox plate twilight payment third in irish ireland's biggest race the the irish and ledger at group one level fiorente third in a cox plate maccabi diva first in a cox plate maccabi diva second in a court field cup and then brew all the way down the bottom although not a big major he did have pretty much perfect form he'd run second in the mooney valley cup and then first in the in the in the lexus three days before the cup so if we take all that in and try and say okay of these six horses for 2026 which ones are possibly going to um win if it's going to be one of those six i don't think there is one there um it's definitely it's not the ones where i've got no in that in that column j there they just don't have the right form i don't think there is one there um it's definitely it's not the ones where i've got no in that in that column j there they just don't have the right form they don't have really any sort of good form currently the two that i'll sort of put an asterix against is goody two shoes and middle earth goody two shoes um joseph hides them right so he's not going to run this horse in an irish and ledger um he he did the job by running running it in the mayor's race and winning similar to last year um and then middle earth to a lesser extent It's come through the Cox Plate It didn't obviously place in the Cox Plate Or the Caulfield Cup But I think if you're going to take two of the six They're the two But yeah, nothing really It doesn't scream like this is going to be the year Where a subsequent Melbourne Cup winner wins
Speaker 1Yeah, good to know she did win that race I think that was the race she ran third last year And so Going alright there And also The overseas Raiders there There's always a lot of talk about Certainly the punters seem to prefer the ones that have had a run on Oz But your data seems to suggest that The record of those horses that Haven't actually had a run in Australia Is just as good if not better
Speaker 3Yeah, I think I wouldn't They used to be right As I said in the preview video It used to be you had to have a run You can see there in the blue column there Where it says horses with no Oz lead up They're still getting three winners And lots and lots of seconds There I think they share three cup wins apiece Seconds, it's nine seconds to five seconds For those having a lead up run Thirds, it's five apiece And top five finishes It's slightly ahead for no Oz lead up run So it's 25 versus 21 So yeah I wouldn't sort of put one off If you like it that hasn't had a run
Speaker 1Alright, excellent And just the data there On the runners who've Had a run Versus who hadn't Eight overseas runners In this year's cup Then we've got the Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds We've got a couple this year Point of Law And James J.
Speaker 3Braddock Yeah, I've had to update this Since Point of Law ran at Geelong So I think previous to Geelong Point of Law was 109 rated But the key obviously since 2007 Is the minimum rating required To finish top five At their first Oz run In the Melbourne Cup Is 117.25 Timeform rating or higher So both Melbourne Cup winners Were 121 or higher Rekindling in 17 In Cross County in 2018 Il Paradiso Which should have won Was timeform rated 119 So yeah Point of Law was 109 It's now on 118 So you can see there In sort of column Q It now fits the perfect pattern Of all the horses That have sort of run Top four or five In the Melbourne Cup Including winning So the question now becomes What can it do? In its next run in the Cup
Speaker 1Yep And then
Speaker 3Yes Yeah, so now this is the Sort of the James J. Braddock slide If you will So it's after seven starts Its peak timeform rating Is 111 plus And you can see when they If you look in column Q There at the far right side Of the page Whenever they have a timeform Of under 116 They just don't perform well The three horses Who have actually had a run In the Melbourne Cup They finished 20th, 16th and 11th But even the other horses Who didn't have that rating And then ran in Caulfield Cups Geelong Cups They all finished well Outside of the top five So yeah I just can't have James J. Braddock unfortunately I know he's being gelded But I think Point of Law Is the one you'd have to go with If you're picking between those two
Speaker 1Alrighty And the other big factor We've spoken about The Queensland Winter Prep Which has produced so many winners In recent years Yeah Yeah So since 2019
Speaker 3Horses having one or more runs At the Queensland Winter Carnival Are four Melbourne Cup wins In one second Four of those five horses Won their last start In Queensland By a margin of greater than One and a half lengths At a distance of 2200 metres or more And then There's normally a sort of a key Sort of backup piece of form here Where you want them to do something In the spring So finish top four In a group one Wait for age Or set weights race Or win You know A 2400 metre race Is a good thing Ideal Eight of the 11 horses That have gone on To sort of run top four In the Cup Have had that profile
Speaker 1And your best profile fits For the race Look to be Middle Earth And so you are
Speaker 3Yeah Middle So you are Has obviously come Sort of out of the woodwork Since he wasn't going to Get an actual start In the race But now he's won His last four on end Over 2400 metres You can see there He ran second In the Calandra Cup To the budget Smuggler So he fits The Queensland profile But then More importantly He fits the What did they do In the spring profile So he has won His 2400 metre lead up And then you can see There are the other two Royal Supremacy In Middle Earth Royal Supremacy Did win that JRA Cup And Middle Earth You know Even though it has got You know Seventh in the Underwood And eighth in the Turnbull I just think there's A little asterisk there Because obviously Marge has purely planned it For one race And one race only The fact that Forgive I would give Is Knight's choice He didn't meet The Queensland criteria Where he only got wet tracks And we know he doesn't Like wet tracks But he has performed A little bit better In Not in the Caulfield Cup But in the In the Herbert Power At his 2400 metre start This spring And he probably
Speaker 1Didn't really qualify Last time Did he? Well yeah He didn't Because he ran second In the Q22 And third Test Cup Yeah He qualified
Speaker 3From a Queensland perspective But not for the Yeah he just got Blocked for run At Bendigo And he got a Completely wet track At Caulfield Last year Oh in 2024
Speaker 1Sorry Yeah Alright and I've Just added some of the Key negative and Positive factors As well No horses won Running tenth or worse No horses won Beaten seven lengths Or worse At this last start Or if I had an SP Of $30 plus We put the horse Numbers there For all of those Key negative factors And also against Each horse And in terms of Positive factors You know if you run In the top five Last year That's virtually All of the winners Four to six year olds Have the best Positive Coming out of a Cox Platter Or Moonee Valley Gold Cup Is usually a key leader Fifth or sixth Stopper Are positive as well But you can pause that If you're interested But we'll skim over this Because we've sort of Put the positive And negative factors Against each runner And we'll We'll start Start getting into it Probably the last point there That we made Wollumar And Joseph O'Brien Definitely the trainers Who have dominated In terms of Winners And certainly getting Those place getters In the cup But We'll get Straight into it The first Runner of the top weight Sons and Lovers He's a horse With plenty of Plenty of good form He won a Group two Over three thousand At Riyadh That's a race That Prince Aaron ran And then ran third In the Melbourne Cup He won a group three Over twenty five Twenty seven hundred That was a race That Mount Athos won And then ran third In the Melbourne Cup He He ran fifth In the Hardwick And Dunedin And Dandino Both came out of that And then Won and ran second In Caulfield Cups He won a group two Over twenty eight hundred At Longchamp And Mount Mallow Won that race And then ran second In the Melbourne Cup And then he was second In the Kilton In the last start Over twenty four hundred At group three At Leopardstown And that was a race Tiger Moth won And then ran second In the Melbourne Cup So he's got A whole lot of A whole lot of positive Overseas form In terms of Races that we've seen Horses run well And then run well In the Melbourne Cup But you did have One negative factor Before I met him
Speaker 3Yeah I'll put it there Because it is It is a negative factor But I think the way Joseph preps them That run In the Kilton Which makes him Then fit the negative pattern I think it was just A lead up run He gave them all A lead up run In that Irish Kilton and Stakes Run over twenty four hundred metres But the stat is Basically Most of the horses From overseas That run in the top three They all have had a start Between twenty eight hundred metres And thirty four hundred metres Now his last start Is obviously over Twenty four hundred and fourteen metres So he doesn't fit in That bucket But I think You know His start before He's nearly got perfect form He hasn't finished outside The top five In his last sort of six runs So I really really wanted There were parts of me Wanting to tip him On to the top And then other parts That I've kept him out Of my first six But Yeah If you're on him I wouldn't let that start Turn you off him
Speaker 1Alright And Luke This was the horse You spoke about In our preview A few weeks ago You were pretty positive About him I have to say You know Hearing Kevin Blake speak That he's travelling With Joseph O'Brien's team He's been really positive About him The R&S Handicap Yesterday Was positive about him And yet Looking at the Smart Odds website The Odds Comparison website Is between twenty one dollars To twenty six dollars Is that a big price loop?
Speaker 2Yeah It's completely wrong Dean I don't know Look I get it Some of these horses The public And You know You look at our media These days Dean And they're all journalists They're not form guys Most of them So They don't know They're all having a bit of a guess But Look he's He's clearly the horse To beat now Since the barrier draw The one Negative Is The pilot Look he's Joseph's Sort of stable rider Personally I'm just Not a fan of the rider He You know He's To me he's a tradesman I would have liked Ryan Moore Obviously He was coming to ride my horse And with it out now They've sort of Swatched them over Switched them over And Ryan will stay in America But Look I'm surprised to see Ryan Moore replaced Yeah I don't see that much To be fair Yeah, he does know the horse, though, so look out. So that's probably my only negative. Yeah, I could spend half an hour telling you why this thing will win. But, look, if we go back to his Longchamp win, he rattled off some sectionals there that are the fastest in the last 20 years, his last eight, six, four, two. So you'll sort of watch the race and think, oh, well, he's only fallen in there, but it was such a high-class sprint home. And the facts remain, these Melbourne Cups are getting weaker and weaker each year. So to get these quality horses into the race, like this is a wait-for-age type of horse. He basically, the 57 and a half 10 years ago would have worried you and you could have put a line through most of the top weights. But. And, you know, now those sort of conditions of the race have changed a little bit. So that doesn't worry me.
Speaker 1It's like a set weights and penalties now, isn't it? That's all it is. You can hardly call it a handicap. I mean, you go down to number 21 and still 53 kilos. Like there's just nothing really spreading them. The top weight for all, 56 kilos. So is it just that this is not the sexy horse, you know, people like the, you know, the movie star, James J. Braddock, or, you know, these sorts of things. And because I just. You know, you, you've given this horse a really big spruik and so have the stable and just, is it because he's top weight and people are just skipping past him and moving on? I just can't believe the price.
Speaker 2Yeah, he probably just, you know, he's, he's a well-travelled horse, but he probably hasn't run in the, the headline races. And again, there's probably other horses that people want to talk up, but he's such an obvious horse. He should be able to land close enough to the speed, he can be ridden from behind if they want to ride him from behind. He's got a suck run. Importantly, he's got miles in the legs. And he comes here with some ratings that are just better than our local horses. So it's, he's so obvious. And if you're not an exotic punter and you just like to have one as a, just a one bet horse to track, I think he's, he is the obvious. So yeah, the, I'll be, I'll be surprised if, like we saw before the Caulfield Cup, they smashed Wine Dark Sea and that was because he had superior ratings. And I would be surprised to call the card come tomorrow if he's not a lot shorter than this price at the moment. Yeah. I think they'll be having a decent crack at them tomorrow, surely.
Speaker 1All righty. Number two, Trust Your Instinct. This is another horse that you gave really positive reps to. You won the Curra Cup Group Two over 2,800 by three quarters. At length, Al Riffa was third there. That was a race that both Rekindling and Twilight Payment won before winning Melbourne Cups, both for Joseph O'Brien as well. And then fourth in the Group One Irish Saint Ledger. And that was a race that Twilight Payment placed in also before winning his Melbourne Cup. And Vinnie Rowe also came out of that race and ran second at Flemington. And he's also got a positive factor for you, Adam.
Speaker 3Yeah, he meets what I was talking about before. So last, last start, top five finish at the distance between 2,800 and 3,400. So that was obviously from his fourth in the Irish Saint Ledger. And that, that way he picked them up that day, coming from sort of well off the pace. He sprinted at the end of 2,800 meters, you know, in a really fast run race. And yeah, he looks, he looks definitely, definite top three chance for sure.
Speaker 1Yeah. And Luke, you sort of had this as probably the class horse of the field when we did our early preview. I think from memory, he was. Yeah, it might've been like at least $15 to $17 at the time. He's now into $7,750. Probably vying for favouritism there with Point of Law. So those who got on early have got on at really nice futures price. What do you make now of gate 18? And obviously it has to be a positive with James McDonald aboard.
Speaker 2Yeah. Can I ask you both first, firstly, what do you, how do you see the speed of the race? And then secondly, are we, are we doing some form here for genuine wet track? Like you guys might know Melbourne weather better than me. Like I just have a look at the forecast and they say there's a fair bit of rain tomorrow. Well, how do you read that, those two scenarios?
Speaker 1Well, I've given up on the bomb at the moment. I use, I use, is it Norwegian or IR.no? This is what everyone tells me. It is very good. It seems. It's saying 6.6 mils. I'll just combine them. It's saying 13.2 mils between midday and midnight on Monday. And then only two mils basically in the morning till midday on Tuesday. And then it's fine. So knowing Flemington, that doesn't feel like it could be any worse than a soft five. To me, in terms of the pace of the race, sorry, Adam, have you got any more to add?
Speaker 3Yeah, I'm the same. Like after I saw it hail on cross-counter in 2018, and then the track was good two hours later. Like Flemington's the greatest track in the world.
Speaker 1So, yeah. In terms of pace, I thought this was going to be the most brutally run Melbourne Cup we'd ever seen because Your Horse Defiantly, Luke and Land Legend were scheduled to duke it out. And I thought, oh, wow. Wow. This is going to need a real stayer. My database still says it's fast, but it doesn't feel like it to me. I've got So You Are, Amphijar, Point of Law, Royal Supremacy up there. I guess Wine Dark Sea will have to go forward from the gate as well. Got things like Kislyar and Future History. And I'm not sure if there's any overseas horses that'll push forward as well. But it doesn't feel like it's going to be anywhere near as brutal as it was going to be. What's your take?
Speaker 2I'll take. Yeah, look, I have – there's some weird horses here. Like Dua Kibo, he's a really tough horse and he does like that speed on. So he's obviously a big question mark. You've got horses that are stuck out on the wing like Future History, Hopewell Rock, Mr. Monaco. We'll touch on it later. But goody two-shoes is the stable. Stable, mate, to this horse that we've got on screen at the moment and owning the same connections. Yeah. You've got Kislyar, who's a big –
Speaker 1And drawn just outside, 19 and 18, so he could potentially just follow it if he wanted.
Speaker 2Potentially, yeah. You've got Kislyar as a big tractor. Royal Supremacy's not that fast, but I heard Kieran say he wants to go forward, which I think will not help him. And then Wine Dark Sea's caught out in the cheap seats as well. So I just – I've got so many horses. I've got so many horses here that the speed is out wide, so I think they're just going to have to roll. Yeah. Yeah, I'm a bit like you. Like, I think it'll be fast. So usually when I find fast-run racers, I go looking for horses that are drawn soft, going to lob midfield, sort of four to eight lengths off the speed. Yeah. In this particular barrier draw set-up, there's bugger-all horses that you could really get excited about, except for Sons and Lovers.
Speaker 1So – Yeah. Yeah, I'm the same. It's not – it's a lot of slow horses that get that nice run in the middle on the fence, you know.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah. So, look, before the Caulfield Cup, I just thought Wine Dark Sea was immoral. When he drew the barrier, I didn't even want to have him in the top five. Yeah. I've got a bit of the ick about this horse now. He obviously gets James, which is nothing but a positive. But – He's a horse – he's only started to hit this mile six, so – or 2,800 sort of form lines late in his career, so his last couple. I do suspect it's always been a bit of a plan. My read on this is Goody Two-Shoes last year came as the pacemaker for Al Riffer. That's my read on it. I might be wrong. Yeah. She's run second, and the owners thought, holy shit, if it can run second. If it can, I'll send my good horse. Yeah. And we'll go and do that, and we'll win that race, because obviously it's a big pot. So the guy that owns this horse is very sort of –
Speaker 1J.P. McManus. J.P.
Speaker 2McManus. Very wealthy guy.
Speaker 1He'll be big in action tomorrow at the call of the card.
Speaker 2He will. And, look, I suspect, you know, this has been a bit of their plan, but getting on this horse, there's two things I won't want to see. I won't want to see a heavy track for him, because I don't think he wants that. Anything worse than a seven, I'll be very, very scared. The map is just horrendous. I think that in the perfect world, they would have loved to have drawn midfield here and do no work, but they're forced to do something here. They're forced to go forward, or they're forced to snag and ride him cold and hope there's enough speed on. I suspect they're going to go back and chime in late and just count on him just being the class horse. On the stuff that I do, this horse could have run in a Cox Plate and beat Cosmic Crusader, so he's a really good horse. real quality animal he can run a sectional he handles fast tempo he can handle slow tempo he's clearly the horse to beat pre-barrier draw but you know you can't jump over him sometimes and we saw last year al riffle was the best horse got a bad ride got too far back then got a race shape that didn't suit i just wonder if we're going to see something similar here with this horse like you've got to include him because he's such a good horse but yeah my um my win confidence is um severely dinted after that draw
Speaker 1all righty the next one uh ninth choice won the race a couple of years ago did run well no herbert power was was a bit unlucky and and probably could have won there and then corfield cup sort of got back and uh plotted along but i don't think corfield 2400 really his go gets back up to his 3200 and trainer sheila laxon she's only raced a horse in the melbourne cup twice and she's won it both times adam you've got a couple of negatives on them
Speaker 3yeah the two negatives are to do with margin beaten so corfield cup margin beaten greater than three lengths he was beaten 10 um and since 2130 horses have been beaten greater than three lengths for only one win and ironically it was it was him sorry it was yeah it was viewed at their last start um the other one is oz local horse that got beat by greater than six and a half 6.9 lengths at his last start so there's been 79 runners for no wins since 2000 so um like i said before i don't think he can win um on his sort of herbert power run he might run sort of top top six or something if he gets a like bone dry track but yeah i don't think he can win
Speaker 1just just quickly luke i just want to go back quickly the sons and lovers and and trust your instinct um just to get your take on track because i could be right i mean 13 mils you could potentially get to a soft six so sons and lovers if it's you know say good four versus
Speaker 2soft six yeah either suits um i actually probably prefer sons and lovers on a little bit softer ground assuming assuming the inside's not you know assuming they're not getting the lane 10 or 12 or something and he's stuck over in no man's land in the in the quicksand but yeah no issue with him and trust your instincts yeah just don't want to see anything worse than a probably a six to be really honest with
Speaker 1him yeah okay and nice choice we know basically he needs he needs good four or he's out of it um yeah i thought he you know what's a pretty weak addition at least you've got a horse here he knows he can run the trip and he's not going too poorly and if it was bone dry i could put him in as one of those ruffies to run a place so luke you give him any hope this year now
Speaker 2you gotta remember last year when he won it in 24 he come out of a brutal run bendigo and then he into a six-day backup and if you got one rule in racing you just backed the backup horses so he had such a christmas and birthday all there the other day um when he won a couple years ago he's just not the same horse i'm gonna work on it's gonna be a dead five and i think that'll be even too wet for
Speaker 1him and not for me fair enough next one is middle earth um he ran third in this race last year he did win at doom but in a group three his form line or he's eight seventh eighth ninth eighth um he's slow as hell but adam you've got some sort of positives and and negatives for him yeah
Speaker 3he gets the queensland winter prep or sort of two-thirds of it um he did win at 2000 whereas you'd prefer them to win sort of at 2200 meters or something like that so he's got some sort of positives and negatives for him yeah he gets the queensland winter prep or sort of two-thirds of it um he did win at 2000 whereas you'd prefer them to win sort of at 2200 meters or further but he only had the one run at 2000 um he won it by a length which is good um you know he's run second where sorry he ran third in a previous melbourne cup so that's a positive since 2000 there's been 25 runners sort of place and then come out and have one win three seconds two-thirds and two-fourths so i think he's a he's a great chance to run that but i think the barrier has ruined him um as you said he's i think you need if you're going to be buried on the fence from one he's going to need some time type of tactical speed to get off the fence get around horses and then start through gaps and i just don't think he he has that um the negatives are he was being caught in the caulfield cup by greater than three lengths so yeah i don't think he can win um and then he was beaten sort of just over seven lengths in the cox plate so there's been 79 runners come obviously out of that greater than seven lengths for no win so i don't think he can win but i think he can run top five mara set him for the race he said all along this is the one plan yeah i think the barrier is is a spinner in the works
Speaker 1and luke you were spot on last year with this horse uh you did you did give it a decent hope and it ran third at big odds what do you reckon about this year yeah
Speaker 2a bit of a shame actually defiantly the one that come out him and this horse of brothers so i reckon that would have been the first time that brothers would have ran in the race but not to be um yeah
Speaker 1and and buckaroo was all right oh yeah
Speaker 2and buckaroo yeah that's right yeah um they're all three related so any any comment
Speaker 1on defiantly coming out was it you know it sounded like we joseph o'brien stable
Speaker 2didn't agree no look it was we're in the age where i can get fined severely so i'll say not much um but yeah not to worry um such a shame because you know yeah i bought him 12 months ago and a lot of those people paid 10 000 for their
Speaker 1share you know and they bought him for cheap didn't you and he came out and won uh you know got beat ahead of ascot and won that um you know really good three thousand meter pre-k galea like a great buy in such a
Speaker 2shame just a shame but anyway um so this horse i didn't mind him last year i don't think he's going anywhere near as good this year the one factor that scares the bejesus out of me is he's actually got some really good miles in his legs and i probably haven't rabbited on about it this year but i always do you need horses that are very very fit and there's a there's a rule of thumb that you need a minimum 10 000 meters in their legs this horse has got 15 000 which by australian standards is an excellent excellent platform um barrier one i was a bit like adam i sort of worried he's a get back horse anyway he's 15 lengths off the speed buried on the fence and if the fence happens to be off a little bit he's just in a horrible spot so i definitely couldn't entertain him for top two um as you know i played the first four so i'll have a wide first four and maybe tick the box for fourth but um yeah it's just that miles in his legs that keeps me interested every other factor for me says he's not with us yeah i
Speaker 1just can't with this horse so it drives me insane this thing like all these positive you know karen march rains mark zara rides soft barrier and you know the point that you made i did i did a lot of work on this last night and just horses that come out of run races have such an unbelievable record in the cup and all the races he's running this prep have been vastly run like heavily was plus 10 first half underworld's plus seven turnbull was plus eight uh cox plate was plus 15 and a lot of the lead-up races have actually been softly run this year that's a good point and so just i look at all these factors and it's like he ticks all these boxes but he's just so slow and i hate him i just can't i just can't with him but you know he's one he just could bob up because he's been set for this one race he's been plodding along and um yeah you can have him but uh i'll probably risk him and get burnt again fair enough vorban uh the nine-year-old um that barrier 22 i think he you know he would have really liked a soft draw uh goes into this sort of fourth attempt around a good sixth last year we got a um interesting you know he is that forgotten horse because he uh he came out of that queensland doom and cup third and and um took a while to get fit and so he's only had the one run at geelong it's the only horse in the race with two group one placings at his last three starts um in fact it's interesting there's only three horses in the entire race who've even had a group one placing at their last three starts and he's had two of them both at wait for age third in the first up in the geelong cup gay chose to race there um instead of the mooney valley cup which would have been a lot more suitable from a weights perspective he had to carry 60 and a half at the geelong cup so he's about three to five kgs worse off against the other horses and he would have been in the mooney valley cup and interestingly on my ratings he um or actually you know on the ratings to win ratings who ignore mine um which is something i respected he would have run second beaten about a head in the mooney valley cup if he'd run there on the same rating due to his weight so maybe not going as poorly as uh as it looks but um adam on on the data he's got some negatives yeah
Speaker 3just a just a big margin at geelong but i was gonna ask you both like he obviously had the queensland prep he ran really good third in the doom and cup but what why didn't he then sort of go on and run in those wait for age lead ups and have a proper like what what was the five months off
Speaker 1for well he was he was is supposed to run in the Q22. And it was a heavy track we finally would have got for him. And to be honest, I think both Luke and I think he would have won that race. But he got scratched by the vets the day before, even though Gay thought he was okay. And then he's just had some issues. You know, I mean, he's a nine-year-old. It took him a long time to get fit. They couldn't get him fit in Sydney. They brought him to Melbourne. And then he was going to run in the Turnbull. He wasn't quite ready. He was going to run in the Might and Power. And they just decided to really get him fitter and then use that Geelong Cup as a fitness run. So it wasn't a deliberate ploy at all. He was meant to have a normal prep, but he just wasn't right in time.
Speaker 3Okay. Good to know.
Speaker 1But obviously, pretty tough for a nine-year-old. Red Cadet did run second as a nine-year-old in this race at his fourth run. But Luke, pretty tough from out there, gate 22.
Speaker 2Yeah, it is. But I'm going to do my best to plead with Gabe to ride him cold again. Yeah, that's his only hope. Yep. So, look, he has been favourite for this race twice before. Obviously, let everyone down. But he ran quite respectable last year with probably not the ideal running and whatnot.
Speaker 1He didn't have a strong speed. You know, if they'd run a strong speed, he could have run a place, I think.
Speaker 2Yeah. My major issue with him this year is he just doesn't. He doesn't quite have the miles in his legs officially. However, he's had some. He's had these little niggling feet problems, which, in the scheme of things, obviously, you need feet for a race like this. But I actually don't think he's been the typical horse that's been sitting in a paddock, which is part of the reason I think so many horses fail in this race. So, if we got a soft six, he goes back. I can really. I can really see him being the horse that would knock a lot of people out of the first four and run fourth or fifth. As Dean touched on, he's got some class. Like, yeah, he's a nine-year-old. You've got to remember, all these Europeans, they're not. You take a year off them, so he's really only eight. And secondly, he's 33 runs for 10 wins, 11 placings. Like, he's got some quality. Adam touched on before. You know, you do need a bit of quality. Quality, you know, if you're going to do anything in the race. He's certainly got that. He's negative. He's got this little seven-metre stride length, which, if they go too fast for him, he just has to work too much. So, I would love to go back. All of a sudden, they sort of sit up through that middle stage and turn it into a 600-metre sprint home. If he got that scenario, he will be very, very deadly. He couldn't win, I don't think, but he could certainly pinch some minor money. So, for that reason, you've got to include him in the exotic wide ones.
Speaker 1Yeah. My fear is they're going to go forward from that wide gate, and I think that'll just burn him. I think you have to ride him cold. That's clearly been how he's raced best. Yeah. You know, for us.
Speaker 2And he will like a soft ground, so.
Speaker 1Yeah, but you're praying for rain with him, for sure. Yeah. Amphijar, he's got that positive view, Adam, with that good. Yeah, top seven
Speaker 3and beaten less than 5.5. So, he was obviously third, beaten a length. The interesting stat this year with the Caulfield Cup is the first and the second horse out of the Caulfield Cup aren't in this Melbourne Cup. They're not in the race, right? And that very rarely happens. It's only happened twice. So, in 2011 and in 2002, it's in the last sort of 26 years. And both times, that happened. So, in 2011, the first four was made up of overseas runners. So, and then in 2002, three of the first four were made up of overseas runners. So, I think we get. It wasn't a vintage Caulfield Cup in the first place and you've now got the first and the second not running in the Melbourne Cup. So, Amphijar sort of becomes the next best, if you will. Yeah, he does fit the good profile, but I just have a feeling with that trend, you're going to see the overseas come to the fore as it has twice before.
Speaker 1And Luke Amphijar won the Group 3 Glorious over 2400 at Goodwood. That was a race that Prince of Arran came out of and then ran second in that year's Melbourne Cup. He was. You liked him in the Caulfield Cup and he ran well, but I think you had queries about whether this horse could get two miles.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think the Caulfield Cup this year was shit. It stopped the race at the halfway point and the two suck horses were. Amphijar and St George, they were doing no work. They were perfectly positioned and, you know, they were good enough to bob through. You watch the run-on in the Caulfield Cup, he wasn't amazing. It was pretty much a bit of an afterthought, I think, for them in terms of, you know, they're down here. I see they've got Equilox going back on as a gear change, which is shit they put on their feet. So, that's a negative. Look, he's drawn well again, I suppose, but. And some of these Lope to Vega horses, they actually can surprise people and get out over a trip. He's quite a good sire, but I'm just happy to risk him. I just think Caulfield Cup will be no good. I actually think people will back him because of that Caulfield Cup profile. But he had so many favours in going into that race. A, it was a weak race, and B, he was coming off a career best with the feet, question mark, and it's a completely different pain barrier. I just think he'll be too brilliant and he'll pop at about the 2,500 metre mark and that'll be him.
Speaker 1Soft six, he looked like he had a couple of wins on soft. Is that not going to help him enough?
Speaker 2Nah, Lope to Vega's actually love it. But this horse is more of a turn of foot horse for me. He's got some really good form in that sort of mile 2,000 metre category. And it's one little secret I'll give away. The horses overseas, you see they've got 2,400 metre form. Generally, when they come here, they're only ever 2,000 or 2,200 metre horses. You've always got to take a furlong or two off. So he couldn't have had an easier run the other day. He still wasn't good enough to run down Kingswood, who had a much tougher run. That's that run. That's a bit of a sucker's run. And if he runs top four, I'll be tearing my ticket up.
Speaker 1Rightio. Now, Royal Supremacy is one, Adam, that certainly on that Queensland Winter Prep form ticks a few boxes.
Speaker 3Yeah, he had it. He was, you know, if we had a pause the year just after the Queensland Winter, he was definitely in my top three going forward. But yeah, he's just, he obviously won, you know, he's just, you know, a couple of slow races over 2,000 metres. And then in the Caulfield Cup, they sent him forward and he just, yeah, just, just blew up. You know, he got beat 17 lengths and that's, that's not a good margin to be coming out of the Caulfield Cup from. But yeah, and he's going to come from the outside barrier, one of the outside barriers. So I'm assuming he's going to go across, Luke.
Speaker 2Yeah, I heard Kieran interviewed last night. I think if they ride him that way, he'll blow up again. But yeah, I think the intention is they're going forward.
Speaker 1Okay. Yeah. And Luke, you know, you won that Q22 and then he looked really good in the JRA Cup. So he looked like he was certainly in good form and going well. What happened in their Caulfield Cup? Like I'm always having to forgive a too bad to be true run and that obviously was and beating 18 lengths. Was there something that came out of that?
Speaker 2No, absolutely nothing. They couldn't find anything. Personally, I think Jamie Spencer rode him poorly. He went slow. He went slow, which was great. Got control of the race. But then he just sat there. Like you had your advantage by going so slow for the first 800 metres and he just left it too long to actually up the tempo. So that let them all come from behind and attack him. And look, it was.
Speaker 1It still doesn't explain the rating. Like he's run 10 lengths below what he's been doing all year. Or more. Like it just felt like a harder rhythm here. Something like that, you know. Like you don't just stop like that unless there's actually an issue. Oh, look. And they often bounce back from those, which is why I'm interested because you take that run away and people would be talking about him.
Speaker 2Yeah, they would. Look, now I loved him when I bought him. Like he was such a strong horse with some turn of foot. He got here in his first prep and he was a fruit loop. Just wanted to get on with things. And look, he's won us a group one and he's a free horse to us. Don't take me the wrong way. But I don't think he's got any form, this horse, especially this prep. Like you look at the Eagle Farm stuff. They gave him that race. Like they're running 24 lengths below average. So that's not form. So there was no chases there. He found a Caulfield day where it was a 13-metre rail and he's gone 22 lengths below average again. Everybody's got him down as an on-speed horse. He's not an on-speed horse. He's a get-back-run-on horse. Yeah. And I think if they go forward, he's none. If he goes back, I'm happy to entertain him but – Yeah, just going off that interview late last night, I think I'm more than happy to risk him. If they snagged him, rode him to win the race and rode him cold, I think he could entertain something. But, yeah, not for me at this stage.
Speaker 1Fair enough. And then you must have kicked a black cat or something, Luke. You've managed to draw your three runners, 21, 22 and 23 here with wine dark sea.
Speaker 2Yeah, yeah. Anyway. Look, if you're just backing horses on ratings in terms of what they've done on the clock, this horse is about two and a half lengths better than Truster Instinct. I was very disappointed in him in the Caulfield Cup. And just a little bit of insight into him, they reckon every time he has a serious piece of work, he loses between 20 and 30 kilos. So he's a real wholehearted horse. But he leaves it out there. So I've got to be diplomatic here because I can't say too much. But let's just say the plan was never to go to the Melbourne Cup after that Caulfield Cup effort. There's been a change of thought. He's only had the one gallop since the Caulfield Cup, which was on Thursday. And to me, that's just an absolute horrible platform and campaign. So I don't – he scares the living hell out of me because if you just back him off his ratings, he's just so much better than just about everything in this race.
Speaker 1Is his best rating for you that Group 3, Geoffrey Freer, 2700 at Newbury, beat Table Talk and Dubai Honor, won by a length and a half? That's a race Red Cadeau placed in twice before finishing second in the Melbourne Cup both years. So it's been proven a good lead-up. Like, you know, I see that. You say he rates really well at the 2700 race. You know, is he one that people need to, despite the draw and, you know, I think you mentioned that he didn't really like Caulfield either. Like, is he one that you have to put into your products because, I mean, the class is there, right?
Speaker 2A hundred percent. And to be honest, like, his Newbury run was rated really good and he had no right to win that race at the weights. But he's had two or three of very similar ratings. He broke a track. He broke a track record at Carlisle when he won by 13. Even when he got beat at Newmarket, his run was still quite good. The thing to note there, though, is he had a 16-day backup going into Newmarket. He got taken on a fair way from home and he sort of gave out. He's got some speed, but I wouldn't say he's a leader. But from that gate, it's. It's right forward or right back. So, again, he's another one. A bit like Vorbin, if they go forward, I don't think they're any. But if they go back, he is such a beast of a horse. It scares me. But I keep coming back to, to win this race, you need to be fit. Like, Adam touched on, you know, having runs in June and those type of things. I think that's because those horses are fit. You know, if you've had a Queensland or an Adelaide campaign, I think that's probably been missed a little bit by people. But it means you're in work. You're fit. You're coming into this race elite fit. And I just. It's the only box he doesn't tick for me in that regard because I know he's good enough. But I just wonder if it's a year too early, bad gate, and maybe not the right platform to really get you super excited. But he's going to go off at 70 to 1 come jump time. And you'd be mad not to include him in exotics. What a horse of that calibre.
Speaker 1Soft six. Would that be a concern?
Speaker 2He's only ever raced really on firm. Breeding-wise, he will love it. So, and interesting, early in their career, they were wanting to keep him to soft ground, but they could never find it. So, I actually don't think that'll be a worry. He's got quite a bendy knee action. So, they generally lead themselves to soft ground. So, I wouldn't worry about that at all.
Speaker 1All righty. Now we come to Asterix. And Adam, he does have some good Queensland winter prep form. He won the Group 3 Tattersalls. We've seen some Melbourne Cup winners come out of. They ran plus five in that race, being pounding Annette Narosso. And he was pretty good in the naturalism around Zaran and St. George with a big weight. Adam, you've got some stats on him?
Speaker 3Yeah. He had the. He had a really good Queensland prep, and he met sort of most of the requirements there. But then, as you said, it got me excited with the third in the naturalism. But then, they need to then follow it up and then run well at weight for age and then take it into a Caulfield Cup. And he's just. He's run 13th in the Turnbull and then got beaten sort of seven lengths in the Caulfield Cup. So, I can't have him. You can only take so many horses to put in your exotics from the Caulfield Cup, and he's just one that I have to put a pen through. And Luke? Yeah.
Speaker 2I might need a psychologist, but seriously, this is the first horse Waller's really given a great chance to into a Melbourne Cup. This horse has got 18,000 metres into his legs. He's been up forever, so he's really, really fit. Like, class and quality is nowhere near it. But I look at the map and I think, oh, maybe they're going to be a bit closer here and be midfield. Put him into the race. And, again, we see year after year, you've got to have miles in your legs to run in those wide exotics. And I agree with Adam. I feel crazy for even mentioning him, but he ticks the map position. He's a genuine horse as a rule, and I think he'll actually appreciate the faster tempo. So, he's going to be in my fourth slot for a first fall. -
Speaker 1Yeah, I'm actually with you and I'm surprised as well, but yeah, he just ticks a few boxes there with that Tattersall's run, the prep. At third in the naturalism, you know, he carried three and a half kgs less than Zahran, got beaten to length. It was sort of alongside St. George, and then ran second in the Caulfield Cup. He put a line through the Turnbull run that was too wet. And then, you know, it's hard to see on the replay because obviously the horses fell and they don't show it, but from the stewards report, he actually got cut out and hampered and, you know, had to, all those horses sort of fell around him. So, that Caulfield Cup run might not have been as bad as it, you know, it looks on paper. John McNeil's won a Melbourne Cup. Chris Waller often gets, you know, spoken about a lot, these horses to bob up for a place. And so, I'm with you. He's one of those that you just got to chuck in, I think, for a place in your first falls and that sort of thing. He could be one of those roughies that gets up. Goody Two Shoes, as you said, Luke, sort of came in as a pacemaker last year, really, and managed to run second. She does have to jump, I think, about three and a half kilos, but she did win the Group Two 2800 at Goodwood, beat Santorini Star. It was a race you ran third in last year before running second here. And Adam, she does have some positive factors for you and a couple of negatives.
Speaker 3Yeah, the positives are she's obviously run second last year. And so she's got a heightened chance of then running in the top four again. The negatives are, so the first one is unwilling to forgive the last start. So she didn't run top three or top six if it's a Group One for one of those overseas horses. She ran 10th in that Group Three, Kiltonen. But the stable have clearly said multiple times that just completely ignore that run. It was purely just a tune-up run. They knew they had her right two starts ago when she beat Santorini Star. So yeah, I think it'll be very, very similar to what happened last year. She's drawn nearly the same battery. She's drawn 19 this year. They came across with Wayne Lorden last year. So I'm assuming they're gonna do the same thing. Possibly even to set it up for trust her instinct, as you said before, Luke. So I think she'll be in the first five or six. She's got sort of three and a half kilos more than she had last year. That much better than last year. But you know, at the turn of the straight, she'll be there whacking away and you know she can get the distance. So I've put her in my top six and I think she can run well. -
Speaker 1Luke, another three and a half kgs. But do you think she can bob up again? -
Speaker 2No, I'm against her this year. You gotta remember last year, she come into this race with 25,000 meters to her name. Clearly the fittest horse in the race. As we touched on, she was there to, you know, roll along and help create some speed and set it up. And it was just her toughness and her fitness that shone through. Now this year is very, very different. She's, she only gets here with, where are you? 10,500, so, so much less miles in the legs. Agree with Adam, the last start was just a pipe opener. Just go around and didn't try. Out of that race come goody two shoes. and Sons and Lovers. And again. given oh sorry and james j braddock actually um but given sons and lovers certainly didn't need a penalty they weren't trying there either it's important to note um i just i don't think she's actually going as good as she was last year she and last year she performed because she had fitness um she's not really this level she's you know that sort of flat hurdler type horse um the map makes it a lot harder this year as well she sort of got a bit of a suck last year where she's going to work this year so i i think there'll be plenty of people that want to fall into her and um i've already laid her on bet fair
Speaker 1rightio and then we got jua kibo a horse who just seems to keep improving he won the metropolitan and then acted up and won the moona valley cup and my horse and form um adam but he doesn't quite tick the june july race stat yeah he
Speaker 3did as i said before i think ma knows about this obviously and he's given him a barrier trial in june where he was it wasn't one of the typical ma barrier trials they they drove him to win the trial and he won by 1.3 lengths over 1200 meters so for a stayer i think he was he was obviously in work but yeah he he he's got some good numbers he's had a couple of slow races where he's sort of come from well back um i've put him in my numbers i think he's one of the top picks for ma but yeah as you said before i like them coming out of fast races as well he hasn't had that that's my only only reservation yeah they went
Speaker 1nine lengths below standard the first half in the metrop and then 12 lengths below standard uh in the first half for the moony valley cup and uh although he finished strong with our slowly run races um luke how do you profile jua kibo
Speaker 2oh i just keep looking at this horse and i don't know what to do with him to be honest he um he doesn't tick the box as far as miles in the legs which normally i'm happy to just pen um he's only got the eight and a half thousand but i've just got uh there was a there was a race there i'll just see if i can bring it up there was a race there one day at rose hill or something and he just kept coming and it was such an amazing run that sort of says you know you're a really tough
Speaker 1horse is that the manion cup ran yeah third to mr monica and terry man saw a bit of a sort of head a hundred percent that was it
Speaker 2doing yeah so um look you know he's tried the sydney cup they tried him on a seven day backup he didn't do anything and you know that wasn't the best form race they tried he said he had a
Speaker 1slow recovery after that race
Speaker 2so you could possibly forgive that um the fact that he doesn't get the miles in the legs but we've got such a skinny addition this year you just sort of thinking well he's still some somewhat on the up and he and as we've touched on he is a little bit consistent many valley obviously wasn't a fast run race so i suppose he deserves a bit of credit there to come from the back half of the field and actually get over the top of him i think there's a bit of merit there um yeah he's there and thereabouts i think he's way too short there's no way he deserves to be eleven dollars on some of the betting apps that he is at the moment but um yeah i don't know what are you saying i don't like that
Speaker 1he comes out of slow run races i feel like that mooney valley cup form is pretty weak kings valley sectionally last 800 last 600 last 400 beaten by battle length yeah um and kings valley i mean he went to the well too many times he couldn't get it done in the bendigo cup and he got caught a bit wide but you know whether that's the a grade form i i think he's unders but he's also you know coming out of standard lead-up races he's kieran marr i think he's one of those ones you probably you probably have to throw him in your first fours to place but i don't really like him and he's definitely not value but he you know if you leave him out no one's going to be shocked if he bobs up type thing you know but i couldn't have him to win yeah fair enough hope will rock um he got a got a run in this race and i think he firmed from 26 dollars into about nine dollars he's drifted out a little bit now to eleven dollars around second in the e-ball uh purple moon and heartbreak city have come out of that and then run second in the melbourne cup and prince of aaron so it used to be sort of a a good form race been quite a long time since uh anything's come out of the e-ball and and done any good he also won a summer handicap at goodwood and he beat small fry by three quarters of a length and bow around second in that race and then second in the melbourne cup uh some are saying that was a weak edition of the e-ball this year what's your take on hope will rock blue yeah
Speaker 2yeah they must be journalists because there's no way that was a really strong e-ball this year um he actually dropped his stick the rider so arguably should have won the race um i think it'll be yeah it's a good race very good trainer this young guy coming through a bit like a i don't know beyond baker type bloke um the horse has got a bit of quality i've got a question mark whether he's going to run the trip i wonder if he's a better 24 2600 meter horse but you do need a strong horse to to run well in that at york in the e-ball um i was going to be all over him from a top four point of view and then these dirty rotten maps come up and i just i think he wants to be midfield but um you know he's he's drawn 15 and there's probably 12 of them inside that want to be midfield as well so it just scares me where he's going to get to in the run and uh first go at the trip a little bit of gap between runs he is a good horse like he's he's better than most of these horses in the race so that means you have to have him but um yeah it's just purely a map all right and uh is that
Speaker 1glory to board there to try and sort that out but he's one i guess you're saying you need to throw into your your multiples yeah definitely one smooth operator i think you might struggle to beat the ambulance this thing anything you've got to say about them
Speaker 3adam uh just just lots of negative profiles um yeah i don't think i don't think you can be all run a place
Speaker 2luke um they should take him to darwin he's an unbelievable all-weather horse this horse loves that type of surface but yeah yeah not from melbourne he gets blinkers on which i suppose is just a bit of a hail mary but he's got some huge numbers next to his name this horse mainly overseas on that all-weather stuff but he's just done nothing he's got no miles in the legs um hard to lie soulless
Speaker 1bone drawn well tummy in barrier board for chris waller narrowly beaten in the sydney cup last prep and adam you sort of had a positive form there on this corfield
Speaker 3cup run yeah he's got the top seven and beaten margin of less than sort of five and a half he doesn't he came eight but he was beaten 4.7 lengths so he fits the margin part i think though i think this horse is if i had to have seven selections this would be my seventh i think this is the best roughy in the race um this will i call this horse a sleeper when i put my database together and the sleeper is where they haven't had the opportunity to fully show what they can do due to race shape or wet tracks or whatever it is and i think this horse is it fits into that sleeper category he came out of a really fast run race um in the kingston town in over 2000 meters where he ran third behind juji kiba who ran second to that um the euphrates horse of gays so he's had the fast run over the 2000 but the metrop was run slow where he ran seventh in the wet and then the corfield cup you see i think the the rider they must get instructions from waller to say knowing that the grand final is the melbourne cup that rider knew that they were going too slow and he whizzed around the outside of them and just put him into the race and it was the biggest mid-race move you've ever you've ever seen on the data um and he just sort of told late but the others that went with him they fell out the back of the tv but he's still hanging held on to get beaten by less than five lengths um he's got to go in everything for me um because i think if he gets pace on and he's drawn the great barrier barrier five um i think he can definitely run in the top four
Speaker 1all right interesting and uh luke solar spine
Speaker 2yeah i was a bit like adam you know the one thing he'll do is he'll stay i think he's been he he wants the fast tempo so he gets ticks there i hope that they'll be midfield with him and um the only thing i would be against him if we show up and it is a slow six type track i think he's a desperate for rock hard firmness he couldn't win but he's a definite third to six range type horse in there and i've got to say there's plenty of those type of horses i think it's a skinny race so i know i keep saying oh you know put him in for fourth and but But he's got legitimate claims and legitimate favours over a few of them.
Speaker 1Yeah, I sat next to Don Stewart and these owners at the barrier draw yesterday. Good luck to them. He was back last, really, in that Sydney Cup where they were around 20 lengths below standard. He ran home well, just beating the nose. He ran all right in the quarterfinal cup there with that eighth. And he's got miles in his legs. He's got a really soft draw. And I think I'm the same as you guys. I think he's just one of those ones that has the ability to bob up. And what's interesting is I'm looking through his whole career in Australia and he just seems to have somehow found slowly run races everywhere. 17 lengths below standard, 15 lengths below standard, 20 lengths below standard. He's just ended up in these slow races. And so maybe a race with a bit of tempo and just getting out to this trip might be what he needs. But I also agree, it looks like if we get to a soft six, it's probably going to rule him out. Yeah. Zah ran a bit of a boom horse, won the naturalism, didn't handle the wet and the turnbull. And then was beaten 3.8 lengths in the quarterfinal cup, Adam?
Speaker 3Yeah, he finished sixth, beating 3.9. But that's the positive, I guess. But yeah. Ratings just aren't there. I think, listening to what Luke said before, I think he might be a 2,000 metre horse or 1,800 metre horse because he just sort of, all of his ratings say the best is at 2,000. And obviously he's had that failure at Caulfield. And there were no excuses. It wasn't a fast run race at Caulfield. So it's not like he was put on the Bunsen burner for the first time. I just felt he should have done more at Caulfield. And yeah, I can't have him. Of all the mile runners, I can't have them.
Speaker 1Luke, can he run two miles?
Speaker 2If he starts now. But look, he just had a suck the other day at Caulfield. He was drawn to get the perfect run. Interesting, I thought he was very late, soft in betting late. So I don't think people really wanted to know him either. And like I said, in the Caulfield Cup preview, he's got one really big fat rating that says I'm a scary horse. But he hasn't done anything in Australia, really. And I hated the run on in the Caulfield Cup. He had a soft run. He was entitled to be the horse when they got round near the ambulance to be well in front. And he didn't even go past Enfrajar. So yeah, not for me.
Speaker 1Radio. Number 16, so you are. Bjorn Baker gets a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Shows you the power of a trainer change. Couldn't run a place at group level previously. And has had five runs for Bjorn Baker. Second at group three, then won a listed, won a group three, won another group three, and then won another group three. Bendigo Cup. Four wins in a row. And meets some of the Queensland Prep profiling, Adam.
Speaker 3Yeah, meets the Queensland Prep really, really nicely. He didn't have the winning margin because he got beat by the Budgie Smuggler. But it's clear that he's gone on much better than the Budgie Smuggler since they met. The interesting thing that we sort of, we heard in the media about, you know, Cosmic Crusader was seventh up. And oh, how bad that is. So you are, will be 14th up into this Melbourne Cup. He's probably on your data, Luke. He'd have the most kilometres in his legs, surely, at 14th up. So he's going to be the fittest horse in the race. It's just whether he has the class. But yeah, he's won his last four starts. He loves, he loves drawing inside Barrier 8. I put that on Twitter. I think his last 10 starts inside Barrier 8, he's had six wins and never finished out of the first four home. So he draws Barrier 7. So I think he's in with a great chance and he's super fit.
Speaker 1Luke, you like the miles on the legs there?
Speaker 2Yeah, bloody hell. Do you know what? I think he's probably the first Australian horse that's gone into the Melbourne Cup with this many miles in his legs. 28,190. And I think the next fittest one in this race this year is 18,600, which is Asterix and Kislyar. So yeah, just what Adam touched on, like he's going to be on speed. It'll be interesting to whether they want to lead. I think they will just because that's what's worked for him. Dean, I didn't do the full Bendigo card, but looking at it, it looked quite on speed there the other day. I don't know whether that's true or not, but to me, he had plenty of favours. There was no chases whatsoever at Bendigo. So that sort of gives me a drag on the race. For the life of me, I don't know how the handicapper gave him the penalty to get him into the race. I think that's a bit unfair, to be really honest, to the horse that missed out. But I've got him in everything just because of that fitness. He's going to be the top third of the field. And if it turns into a war, this horse is going to be extremely tough. And the one thing that you always go looking for in a race, in any type of stay, in a race, is a horse on the quick back up. And he's going to be six days. So, look, he might be the first one that's under pressure and drops out the back of the telly. But I just think that's such a great grounding for the horse. You've just got to have him in everything, this one.
Speaker 1Yeah, I can't argue. I think you've got to throw him in there. He just keeps kind of whacking away. And he doesn't seem to be showing any signs. He doesn't seem to be showing any signs of letting up. His ratings seem to just be holding pretty consistent every run. Future history. I can't say much positive about him, Adam.
Speaker 3Yeah, just the key negative there. He's beaten by greater than 1.9 lengths for a local in a non-group one race. And that's 107 runners for only one win. So I don't think he can win.
Speaker 2Luke? Yeah, well, this is the other real rough horse. I don't know. I love the fact, you know, he comes out of Brisbane. He's got plenty of miles in his legs. I think he's probably going to be the first one that gets in of those wide-drawn horses. So I think his gait will end up being okay. He's got 14,800 metres in his legs. And I suppose that a horse that's probably on the day going to jump at 100 to 1, there's just a bit of toughness about this horse. He's by showcasing, which generally gets sprinters. But I think the wet ground, if it's a little bit wetter than normal, I think that'll give us plenty of options because he's sort of going to get through it. And this is another horse that he seems to overperform when he finds fast-run races. So we know we're going to get that. Yeah, look, I might be drunk. But I'm going to. I'm going to include him in, you know, I'm never going to tick the third box with him, just third and fourth, and just try and knock most of the tickets out with him.
Speaker 1All right. Well, if he knocks me out of the first four, I'll spit the dummy. Might be the first one. James J. Braddock, a big sort of media hype horse. He's got some pretty high-profile owners. Doesn't meet the time form rating requirement. I've got Adam.
Speaker 3Yeah, as I said before, he's only 111-plus after seven starts. I know they've gelded him. But, yeah, barrier 24, I don't think they wanted that, to be honest. And just the ratings, you know, if you have to compare him to Point of Law just in terms of a profile and in terms of ratings, Point of Law outpoints him on nearly every metric. So I think the only thing in his advantage, if this did come, if it did get randomized, if it did get really, really wet on the day for some reason and then the forecast is wrong, he's an amazing wet tracker. So I think that's his one positive where I could change my mind if he did get heaps and heaps of rain on the day.
Speaker 1All righty. And Luke, he ran fifth in the Ball Saks Stakes? Belly Saks Stakes. Third in the Epson Derby. Rekindling ran in both those races. Sixth in an Irish Derby. Tiger Moth ran second in that before. Second in the Melbourne Cup. Sixth in the Kilton and Tiger Moth won that. How do you sort of read his ability, Luke, and there's a fact that he's gelded. Going to change anything?
Speaker 2Look, they paid an absolute fortune for him on hype more than anything. His Group 3 win was okay. That's his career best rating with me. And basically the race inverted that day. So he was good. He was good, but it certainly wasn't. That was only at 2,000 metres. And it wasn't good as in, geez, he's a horse of Group 1 talent. Everyone's going to look at the Epson run, but the Epson race was pretty rubbish on the clock. Maltese Cross is a very good horse, but he ran second that day. He got absolutely lapped. I think then they gelded him. He ran in the Arabian. being crammed. race he was there trying where i think sons and lovers and the other horse once they weren't trying but they were there just as a prep run um he still couldn't get past sons and lovers there uh they basically started the same sp and it's you know i find joseph stables a very good one from an sp point of view if they're the starting price sorry when they're when they're in the market they generally run to expectations when they're out of the market they run to expectations so um sons and lovers was easy in the betting that day this thing just um it just had no interest it ran that way i don't understand the hype um i think it's probably just because it's got local connections and it's got craig williams and craig very rarely makes the wrong decision to be fair but on this instance i just um i'm pretty confident that he doesn't feature
Speaker 1wet track any help and any chance of running two miles
Speaker 2or oh that that's his only hope is the wet track um he's he's just limited so yeah he'll whack away but you know am i am i interested in him at all not not even remotely just doesn't have enough time on the clock or anything to sort of gravitate towards to say yeah i could feature in this race so yeah there's there's not much to like about him i'm sorry what do they
Speaker 1do from gate 24 or do they
Speaker 2have to uh they'll just go back i think they'll they'll take their medicine go back ride him to hit the line and you know i'm sure connections will be hoping he runs on and runs a good race from that angle but um he doesn't he certainly doesn't have the quality or the strength of some of those other ones that are going to get back so yeah i just don't like him
Speaker 1rightio and uh adam kislyar he does have a a second over 2800 at his last run overseas before he ran in the move le cup yeah the
Speaker 3the last he's got some good form the last two starts overseas and as you can see there if you finish if you finish top five um 51 runners for two wins and seven runs and seven runs and seven runs and seven runs and seven runs and seven top three finishes um even he's run at the car over 2800 meters behind queenstown even though he got beat four and a half lengths you've seen what queenstown has done since then winning winning um the big race overseas last week so yeah i think he goes forward he's barrier 20 um bo mertens is on which is obviously a you know a very very good front running rider so yeah he'll be on pace and at the top of the straight he'll he'll give you a sight
Speaker 1and luke he seems to handle the wet and certainly stay the trip but uh is he fast enough
Speaker 2no he's a big tractor this one he's got no gears um just gonna keep you know if it was he's a real 4 000 meter horse um they've done well to qualify him i suppose but again you look at that car race queenstown ran well the other day but i've got it a really poor poor race um the third horse they tried to sell recently at the sales couldn't get a bid lafayette was good about four years ago carmus doesn't run the trip and dallas star hasn't been with us for a long time so there was no form in that race he did start the favorite and um well sorry second favorite but it the the favorite in that race is genuinely no good so um he won't be fast enough we saw at the race the other day he he made his effort he was at his top at the point of the turn and they just swamped him and not convinced that's the right form either he look he'll keep on um so i know plenty of people like to back him to run top 10 you gotta back him to run top 10 but it's only because he will stay and he'll stay quite easily but he's so slow um if you think middle earth slow dean this thing's slower
Speaker 1all righty and then we'll move to the next one point of law you're you're both keen in our early preview a few weeks ago to see the source run in australia and he he went pretty well he overseas he ran fourth in the group two queens vars over 2800 at ascot that was a race at heart and all had won before running a place in the melbourne cup and he won the bahrain trophy over 2600 at group three level also that was also a race at the heart and all had won he then came out in the geelong cup and won and my numbers that's was the second fastest geelong cup in probably the last 11 years and he's basically led and won it uh that's pretty impressive and in our ticks your time form running requirement adam
Speaker 3yeah he jumped up from 109 to 118 plus so he definitely can win on that basis i think the other thing that's going for him is kieran has i don't know whether he's done this on purpose but i think he's going to win on that basis and i think he's going to win on that basis but that he's he's basically crossed over two amazing form factors so it's usually only a horse has one of these amazing form factors this horse has both of them so he's got the three-year-old northern hemisphere with the 118 time form he's also then got having a run at geelong in a fast time which is dynamite right you've seen media puzzle you've seen um american and junior den not in fast times but still have the run at geelong and then win um but he's got a and so many others either you know come close bauer came close overseas run out at geelong so he gets both of those profiles combined together and he's trained by the master um so yeah i think the only the only thing was he did pull a bit and he was a bit keen maybe that was because you had the gay waterhouse runner in the race as well sort of annoying him but um i think if he if he stays i think he wins but yeah the extra 800 meters is the one thing i'm worried about but the profile was perfection luke you
Speaker 1said he wanted to see this horse and what what did he make of his geelong cup
Speaker 2win yeah touch on him i thought if he got in the corfield cup he would have been some hope um only because of the strength of the race um look the horse i've got a big concern about his attitude he is mentally not there yet uh he reminds me a bit of my horse that royal supremacy i just think he wants to get on with things and get things over and done with and oftentimes that's the best way to ride those horses give them less time to think in the race so that's why i think they led the other day um and they ran them along look they have run really good time again you look at the run on at the end of that race he was he was out on his feet um small fry that's chasing him look he's a handy he'll be a listed group three horse here but you know he's no he's certainly no champion and certainly no melbourne cup prospect omni man just had no form overseas for a long time like was there a horse in that race that was actually in form so i just question whether that was just a race full of non-chasers we know vorban was the class horse in that race but he he needed the run from a fitness point of view so he's won opposition basically really wasn't at the races i know he's ran a big fast time um geelong can be a bit that way i find on some occasions i've definitely got him as a top three hope and he could win but i really don't like the whole fact that he's deep into his very first racing prep like this horse raced in april so when you consider that he's been in work for 12 months on his first prep um it's very very hard to do and it won't surprise me if this horse gets beat before he even leaves the mounting yard because he just melts because he mentally isn't there and yeah that that's the great big concern i'm sure call the card tomorrow he's going to be smashed um i can understand why they will because there's limited options but to me he's still got quite a few chinks in his armor and he won't be able to lead start to finish in a
Speaker 1melbourne cup i don't know if he's going to be able to do that but i think he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it he's going to be able to do it like where did he sort of settle and how did he settle in those races
Speaker 2yeah um he he actually ran home in 34 flat there that day um where he's run where he won at newbury he'd come home like a just very average horse the new market run was a very good run um and interestingly that was at 2600 meters where he's 2800 meter run the times were ordinary there uh out of the ascot run uh so to me he's got the new market run and geelong looks good on paper but to me i've still only really got one piece of evidence on him that he's a that he's a top level horse uh but obviously even though the weight scale has changed he's still you know he's a scary horse never seen soft ground whatsoever this horse but he is by frank or ask about that and they generally really like it so i wouldn't let that turn you off even though he's out of a japanese man but um i just Think he'll be heavily backed, he'll run really good and probably run third, fourth or fifth, somewhere like that. That's where I've sort of got him in my numbers. Do you think they'll try and lead on him
Speaker 1or do you think they'll try and take some kind of sit?
Speaker 2I think they'll lead on him because I think he'll melt a little bit in the yard and they'll think, well, shit, you know, that's our only hope. Don't let him concentrate. Don't let him wander and get into him.
Speaker 1Alrighty. Interesting. Strictly business. She broke a lot of the historical profile and factors by winning an Oaks third up, one by three and a half lengths and plus six. Not much has come out of that, but it wasn't a bad run. Then she had three runs in her next prep for basically duck eggs and then fourth up in the SA Derby, got beat a nose. It was slow time and not much has come out of that race. And last start, got beaten 13 lengths in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Speaker 3Adam? Yeah. It doesn't meet any of the sort of positive factors and due to the beaten margin, it hits all negative profile factors for beaten margin. I was really, I was sort of really excited with this horse when I saw it win the Oaks race sort of last year. I really wanted it to come back because it did visually win that race really well. But yeah, it just, I don't think it has come back at all. It just, it gets sort of, it falls out the back every single race. So yeah, I can't have it.
Speaker 2Luke? Yeah, I think it'll be between this one and one smooth operator. If you've got a sweep and they pay for last, I think one of them will run last. So not for me. Inside draw helps, but yeah, our Oakses and Derbys are rubbish. So yeah, no good.
Speaker 1Rightio. And Mr. Monaco looks a real wet tracker. I think we get that soft six track. That's probably the key to him. I'm not sure he's good enough on the drive, but he certainly, when it gets wet, is one that's going to enjoy it. But again, he's that Kieran Marr, lightweight, won the Bart Cummings to get into the race two starts ago, then third, beaten less than a length in the Moody Valley Cup, but doesn't meet the June-July factor, Adam.
Speaker 3Yeah, it doesn't meet the June-July factor. The interesting thing, and it was sort of drawing on Luke's point earlier on when we first started about how weak this race is this year. If you follow Dan O'Sullivan, he's got a lot of great horse ratings. He gives this at the weights rating each year for each runner. So it's the last start at the weights rating when he converts it from his weight for age rating back to what they carry in the Melbourne Cup. And this horse actually has the second best at the weights rating. So he's on 103. There's normally in any normal year, there's normally about five to eight horses who are 106 or better at the weights. This year, the first horse is Hopewell Rock at 104.6. And this horse is second on 103. with a chance he can run well um i haven't got him in my top six but yeah based on that rating which is normally pretty accurate for them running well um and he's by obviously out of the mass table i think he can run well
Speaker 1luke what about mr monaco for you that was
Speaker 2six dollars in was it a sydney carp i thought you know he went into that race with just the most amazing run where he um traveled wide and just put him away albeit on a wet track i actually don't think he'll run the trip i think he's a huge huge doubt to even get 2800 let alone 32 um if we wake up and it's a lot more rain than they say i'll be putting him in everything even a win ticket in that regard but that is his only hope a really wet track where they just hack for three quarters of the race and then sprint home that's the scenario that could see this horse run well but if we get a you know dead four or five yeah i'm i'm looking elsewhere i'll throw him in for fourth just because of that wet track factor but it would have to be wet for me to include him otherwise i'm happy to take him on radio zakuma
Speaker 1won the andrew ramsden beating pounding in may to get into this race sixth in the naturalism fifth in the herbert power was ticking along all right and ran last been eight lengths over the mile at flemington last start um adam that run a negative for you
Speaker 3yeah it got beat got beat too far but i sort of i normally give these ones where i call it the zardozzi run because james cummings did something similar and they seem to be all copying him because you can't you can't run three days out anymore so these ones that are already qualified um similar to what what ma does with chocolates they give them a run so that they are then on the backup so graham beg he's done the same thing he's given zakuma a run in an unsuitable race over the mile um but even just even just sort of the lead-up races if you compare zakuma to chocolates chocolates has been sort of outperforming it in since they've won their golden ticket races um so if i could only take one i'd take chocolates over zakuma um just because yeah i don't think they're both going to feature in in the first four luke give any
Speaker 1hope to zakuma
Speaker 2i think the map helps it if they were to go forward but their one go when they won their golden ticket they rode it cold fast run race coming over the top so it showed strength there i think the graham beg factor is probably underrated we're all talking about ma but i'll tell you what graham beg he's he's exceptional um interesting horse in since it's gone to beg just how well placed it's been outside of the the prep run last start pretty much it starts really hard in the market in everything it's in um i doubted at the trip but the big thing i'm suggesting since that flemington run it's pretty much been in work the whole way through so in that regard it comes here with 17 000 meters in its legs a kind map um and a horse that likes a wet track if it is wet so again i agree with adam sort of chocolates is probably the better of the two but just from a map point of view and the miles and the legs it's just a bit well you know every year there's something in the first four that knocks the majority of people out and that's why would you say it averages about 300 000 so um i think you've got to be a bit forgiving in in some of your things that you're looking for and fitness is one of those big things really good trainer uh yeah um i'll tick the fourth box but that's about it
Speaker 1rightio and then we get to the bottom weight here chocolates um i actually think this is probably the best of the australian hopes and that and what's sort of that set weights and penalties race it's the one horse that actually has beaten the handicap or is a lot of them that have had to win to get in you know they've been slugged a couple of kilos and they've got up to kind of 53 54 now and lost that big sort of weight advantage they might have had was chocolates she won the hoffman of those lead-up runs you know from a time perspective they're in 20 lengths above standard for the first half so that was a strongly run race and she won by 2.3 lengths then they took the blinkers off from the herbert power she ran sixth she really needs of blinkers blinkers came back on and the tessio and she she ran well for second that was a good little tune-up run over 2000 which has proven actually be real positive for this race uh she had a lot of really positive profiling factors on on the profiling factors i've come up with and and um only one negative i think the only travesty is you know harry coffee fell yesterday and he might not get to ride it and one interesting thing about this horse is that harry's record on her is exceptional and she doesn't seem to like to go for anyone else it looked like mcd was gonna ride strictly business and then he's gone off and Dean Yendall's on so my guess is Mick Dee might be the person lined up to ride her if Harry can't. I certainly hope Harry does get the opportunity to ride her he's won the Caulfield Cup and deserves the opportunity and she goes well for him but yeah I like her Kieran Ma down on the weights, good form she's definitely one for me. Adam what do you think of Chocolates?
Speaker 3Yeah she comes she comes out of a slow one race in the testio at the last start but i'm ignoring that because the previous as you said the previous two starts she's in the herbert power that was the third fastest herbert power in the last 26 years um when she ran behind pinhole and night's choice which you know zakuma was in that race as well um and then yeah her her archer run was the third fastest archer in the last 26 years so i like those i like that factor of coming through two two fast races if she doesn't run in the testio then she's off a really fast run race so i'm i'm forgiving that and i think as you said she's she's top two mar runners with middle her and middle earth i would say or juja keeper um so yeah definitely definite winning chance
Speaker 1and luke she's by shocking who won a melbourne cup for uh laurie eels and they own her uh can they do it again
Speaker 2yeah i i respect you guys a lot uh i just don't like her as a horse um just don't think she's quite got the quality i think she gets back from that gate the big tick is obviously she's got the 15,960 metres, so she's going to arrive here very, very fit and that helps her. her um do her best but I've just got it back and can't have them all as we've touched on before but yeah I don't know I just um I respect what you guys say and and off that I'd probably I'll tick the box for third or fourth but um definitely not as a top two ho all righty well
Speaker 1let's get to our top six selections and Adam we'll start with you looks like you've got point of law on
Speaker 3top yeah point of law as I said it fits double profile and it's perfect but as Luke said if it throws its head around and can't settle then it's you know you could rip your ticket up at the at the 800 um second hope will rock best last start rating in the race based on Dan O'Sullivan's figures that I follow um trust your instinct I think the the the win at the Currah two starts back was was amazing so it's got to go in middle earth has been set for the race goody two shoes I think can run another race for Joseph and then Juja Kibo I think um it's been in unsuitable slow run races and but it's made up a lot of ground so I think it can run can run well
Speaker 1right here on Luke uh maybe we'll start with with this here where you've got every runner and barrier draw order the number of meters they've run this is your map uh and also your rated prices here
Speaker 2yeah um just something that I do for every race when I'm having a bed and um the far column is sort of their recent rating that sort of will give you an idea and as you can see wine dark seas by far got the best number but you look at that gate and it's just horrendous and then from what I've touched on with the the race sort of not really a great platform trust your instinct therefore was going to be my clear on top and then there's just so many horses inside him where does he get to um so by process of elimination you just have to the third best horse in the race sons and lovers so um yeah I've sort of gone that way last year you
Speaker 1had a couple short and one of them was was uh half yours who won it looks like in the ratings here your short ones uh trust your instinct sons and lovers uh and and point of law really as you're you're clear you're clear three
Speaker 2yeah um I think it's a race where you don't have to include many in your your winning chances um but it's also the type of race where you've got to fan it very wide for third and fourth um yeah it's it's just going to be a race where if we're right and they run it along you want to be looking for horses saving ground with really good fitness next to their name and um as a general rule I wouldn't be interested in so you are but he's just so fit uh and gets a map um it'd be really interesting um is it Rachel King on so you are yeah she's not known to hand up um and if point of law takes a bit of control with Ethan Brown they just might cut at each other so that's sort of even more reason you just want to be a little bit tucked away saving ground switched off early um and why I'm just going a bit cold on trust your instinct because for the first 600 meters he just might be looking for a spot all righty and
Speaker 1just the next slide also here just sort of reiterates what you're saying about the the importance of miles and the legs and you can sort of see that um you know in the last couple of years those horses with the miles of legs have certainly come to the fall
Speaker 2yeah look if we go back to viewed which is back in 2018 not quite on the screen there we've had green moon in 2012 who won with only 7 000 meters in his legs that was one of the slowest melbourne cups we've had um it was just a sprint home from the 300 very very unique fiorente won the next year but it was well publicized gay never spelled the horse after the previous year's third in the melbourne cup he was in work the whole time so and if one trainer can get him fit it's gay waterhouse so that's a little bit of a um outlier in terms of every other race pretty much we have to come up to very elegant which is um 21 she was just a little bit of a um outlier in terms of every other race pretty much as adam touched on she just you know you're talking about a world-class weight for age horse in the race and she had next to no moles in her legs and she was the only other one that does it but as a rule if you don't have moles in your legs you don't perform in a melbourne cup and um i think that's why you've got to go unless it
Speaker 1unless it's very slowly run which we don't seem to think it's going to happen
Speaker 2this year no it needs to be slowly run and um yeah as you said there's so many courses that are you know it's a game of musical chairs you've got to get in somewhere you can't just sit six and seven wide and if they commit to go forward they don't get a spot they've got to push on even further and that's why it just looks ugly for so many of these horses
Speaker 1this year all right and uh luke you tip the the first four and four runners in the corkfield cup for around a 20 000 payout for all who listened and followed so uh your melbourne cup selections here and you got a 25 to one shot
Speaker 2and that's the reason why i'm so excited to be here and i'm so happy to be here to talk to you and i'm so happy to be here and i'm so happy to be here and i'm so happy to be here to talk to you um i'm a little bit i haven't touched on it much but time form used to be such a reliable guide the way the industry is overseas at the moment they just don't have horses that are 120 and above as a rule so i think we've got to be a little bit flexible there and sons and lovers is one of the top horses over there in europe from a from a time form point of view so um i think we've got to be a little bit flexible there and sons and lovers is one of the top horses over there in europe from a from a time form point of view so i think we've got to be a little bit flexible he just gets all the favors um if he had james mcdonald on i i couldn't have enough on him but um at 25 it's it's an awesome bet to have trust your instincts the the class horse just got a terrible mat and then from here on in i as i said i could i could probably have another eight or ten um i really think the top two are cornell of the race and that's why i'll be sort of playing so you are just from a fitness point of view 25,000 meters point of law has just got that one run more in new market more so than geelong for me but i just worry about him at the trip um do akiba doesn't have the meters it's worth noting but it's just it's just one runner i can't get it out of my head he was just so brutally tough there that day he might be the horse that could flop into a place for us and solo spain i could replace him with six or seven horses but i just thought from a soft draw if it's not wet um he might be some value that a lot of people forget but i could easily replace him with six or seven and you know future history four band um there's a heap of them
Speaker 1all righty and uh i've got the same top two as you i've got trust your instinct on top sums and lovers second i feel like it's a real set weights and penalties race this year i go back to 2021 when we sort of had very elegant incentivized and spanish mission on the top three they all carried 50 and i think that's a good thing i think that's a good thing i think that's a good thing yeah um it feels like a similar year to me with trust your instinct and sons and lovers uh when i profile the race there's always something right down the bottom of the weights that sneaks in and runs a place and i think that horse is shock lips i think she comes out of a really strong one win over 2500 at flemington blinkers on uh karen ma down the weights i think she's a genuine winning chance uh for me point of law and jua kibo again are just your typical they profile well and they don't have many negatives um i have the same sort of concerns with them as you and i'm not particularly keen to back them to win certainly not at the prices but they're they just tick the profiling boxes that you sort of got to put them in and then just trying to find a roughy to chuck in there look if it's bone dry that will also be night's choice um if it's not bone dry and it's looking like it's probably not going to be but um if it's not a but i think you know wine dark sea asterix goody two shoes um you know you got hope well rock and solar spain i think they're all the types of horses that i'll be you know throwing in for those certain four spots as well um and i'll probably be taking some kind of first ball that combines all of our horses um you know there might be nine or ten but you know even if you box 10 horses in the first four cost five grand of course you can take a percentage of that average average melbourne cup first four is 330 000 that's uh that's a bit i don't mind taking yeah that's a good idea uh look again quickly competition come in your melbourne cup tip uh you can win the prizes do that before uh for the melbourne cup uh congratulations to peter george who won our competition so he's got two tickets to the champions day marquee uh on uh on the 7th of november also gets one percent of norvans prize money in the accommodation voucher worth a thousand at the top 10 ones are well down to all those in our competition and look uh luke i thought i'd just finish you know in previous years you've tipped off some really good winners of other horses of yours going around um around melbourne cup day or during melbourne cup week so anything that's i don't know that you had a really high quality horse that's had a few injury horses augustus i noticed was running first up um what do you what do you think about him does he does he need the run and is there anything else that you've got through the car of all that you might be able to tip uh tip us into a winner for
Speaker 2to be really honest i knew you asked me and I went looking and I couldn't find one that I'm super confident with I will give you a horse to follow there's a horse um the race before the Melbourne Cup called Relentless Voyager um he potentially on my stuff is in the top five horses in Australia he won he's had 12 months off he had a little ligament injury that wasn't a concern initially but then he kicked a bloody post or something so that's kept him out longer than necessary I'm not sure he'll be 100% ready to go in that race but if he shows up in a zipping classic I think you'll want to um have a have a good look at him to see how he goes first up but probably the horse that I'm really looking forward to is not one of mine and I would have had in the top three in this Melbourne Cup is a horse called Pinhole um I touched on him in the Caulfield Cup prelude and he won the Herbert Power um if he'd got into this race I was going to borrow a lot of money to have a bet on him this would have been perfect for him Pinhole he's an out and out stayer he loves soft ground but he wants fast tempo so if he shows up in one of these second and third tier which I'm sure he will I I really encourage you to have a really good bet on him because I think he's going great um and the faster that as long as the race is not a slow run race but I know he's not one of mine but um I think he's the one that you want to keep an eye out over that carnival because I think you'll make money out of him
Speaker 1right yeah and I've I've got one in the fourth at Flemington over a thousand and Bjorn Baker Horse Pavia who trialed twice at Warwick Farm and Gosford ran plus 8.5 and plus 7.5 lengths above standard those trials one at Kembla by two and a half lengths over a thousand and went 11 lengths above standard at Warwick Farm ran second over 1100 fits back to a thousand meters Rachel King and I think he's going to be a really good horse for me and I think he's going to be a really good horse for me and I think he's going to be a really good horse for me drawn inside down the straight so you know it's always a question on the day uh you know whether that's a positive or negative but she's a very fast horse Pavia um Adam thanks for your time as well I know you put a huge amount of time and effort into all of this and helping with the presentation putting all the stats together so big thank you
Speaker 3to you no worries thanks
Speaker 1guys you
Speaker 2got one Adam or have you ever done any
Speaker 3form oh yeah pinhole for me I've already sent that to the boys in the group chat that is that run I was hoping it was going to get in because I was like if this thing gets in it's top two in the Melbourne Cup for sure yeah back it back at whatever staying race that goes in
Speaker 1next
Speaker 3yeah yeah no good
Speaker 1one yeah uh all righty thank you both so much uh brilliant work and yeah let's now let's now on Melbourne Cup first ball
Speaker 4let's hope yes let's hope guys at winning Edge investments our team of highly skilled expert guests and full-time professional punters review the data crunch the figures assess the best betting opportunities and deliver them to your phone via our app and your email inbox in real time so you profit go to www.winningedgeinvestments.com look at our membership options make your choice and enter the promo code podcast to receive a special 25 discount on your first membership just for listening that's p-o-d-c-a-s-t in capital letters for a 25 ongoing discount on your first membership treat your betting like a business and invest intelligently with winning Edge investments
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