Speaker 1Welcome to the Winning Edge Investments Podcast. Winning Edge Investments provides industry-leading horse racing and sports betting tips, ratings and education, enabling you to invest intelligently and treat your betting like a business. Go to www.winningedgeinvestments.com to learn more about how you can start to supercharge your betting bank immediately. Treat your betting like a business and invest intelligently with Winning Edge Investments.
Speaker 222 with Gold Trip and a little list of the other races you've won. Metrop, Iris St. Ledger, the Tourac, the TJ Smith German Oaks, Manicato, Hong Kong Derby, Sydney Cup. There's not much you haven't won, but I recall last year there was one race that you haven't won and that's the Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's always been a bit of a graveyard. Gold Trip ran really well in it one year and I've had one or two horses that arguably would have went close. But anyway, new year this year and hopefully we can break that dark.
Speaker 2Yeah, and you've certainly got some really strong chances in it this year and we'll cover those. The reason I'd love to speak with you is your insight on these imports, which to me is absolutely second to none. I think in 2022, we did the Melbourne Cup webinar. We both had your winner Gold Trip in our top two at $21. And the next year we both had Without a Fight top rated and he won the Cup. And in 2025, we both had Warp Speed up the top and he was 40 to 1 and that would have been a nice result. He ran second beat in a night. And last year you were just all over it. You rated half yours $4.50. You said it was, you know, the horse would be purely backed at one easily at $9. He also wrapped Middle Earth, who I couldn't give any time for at all. And it ran a really good third. But I think what's most impressive with you is your ability to pot these days that everybody else loves. I mean, Presage Nocturne last year was backed from $8 into $5.50 favorite. All the media, your parents, Smarties. They used international experts and inverted commas. Even the major syndicates, though, everyone was on him. And you were basically the only person in Australia who was just saying it had none. I remember you laughing at how it was even $8. And on the day they backed them to $5.50, ran 19th, beating 19 lengths. And yeah, you rode off Buckaroo. You rode off Maydan, Flutner Curve. They're all kind of $12, $20 chances that, you know, international horses that people respected and you potted them all. So, you know, I've done, I've tried to do my research on the historical precedents. And. And the runs of the runners, but it's really your insight on, on the true value of the form that obviously you do in detail because you're out there actually buying these horses for your client.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's a funny world over there in Europe. They, you know, they've just started to introduce some times, but as you very well know, Dean, in your experience, it's not a case of, oh, that's run fast time or whatnot. You've got to be able to interpret it. And the Europeans really don't know how to do that still, I find. So that's still. It gives us an edge from a buying point of view, but obviously you've got, you know, those little quirky things that no one can really know and, and on how they've traveled and, you know, how they've settled in and whatnot. But yeah, it's a bit of an edge that I've got and long may it continue.
Speaker 2All right. Just quickly with this feature presentation on the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup, comment the winner of the Caulfield Cup or Melbourne Cup, win a monthly winning edge investments membership. If you're already a winning edge investments member, we'll upgrade that to a quarterly membership. If you manage to comment winning Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double to both winners, we'll give you a quarterly winning edge investments membership. Or if you're already a winning edge investments membership member, we'll upgrade that to a yearly membership worth up to $3,970. Any membership of your choice. Just the rules, only one tip per race. So just one comment, one tip on the Caulfield Cup, one tip on the Melbourne Cup to be eligible for the prize. And just make sure you subscribe to the winning edge investments YouTube channel to qualify. And so you can make sure you don't miss our other Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup feature presentations and any other competitions that we run. Outstanding. All right. Well, let's get straight into it. We've got every runner here that's still past the first declarations of either cup. We've got the elimination orders here for the Caulfield Cup so far. Birdman, Ampger, Royal Supremacy, Your Horse, Zaran and Kings Valley are exempt from the ballot for the Caulfield Cup. And Your Horse defiantly. Chocolates and Zakouma are already exempt from ballot in the Melbourne Cup. So we'll go through these runners, runner by runner. Sudeelius, look, he's obviously a high quality horse and one that you got a huge rep to last year in terms of his quality. But although he's nominated in the Caulfield Cup, looks like he is going to the Cox plates. Probably not too much to say from a Caulfield Cup perspective, but I guess really quickly on him. You know, he's just run yesterday in the Turnbull fourth. I think he had a chase pretty hot speed there and a heavy track second up, which I didn't think suited him. But do you think he's still on track for the Cox plate?
Speaker 3Yeah, obviously, the way he won the Queen Elizabeth, you know, he's just a scary, scary horse. So he's always going to, you know, he's he's arguably in our top two horses in Australia. So probably not telling anyone I didn't know. But what did you make yesterday? Like, yeah, he chased a hot speed, but was it good enough?
Speaker 2I'm forgiving, you know, he only ran third in the Ranvet last year and then he peaked in the Queen Elizabeth. And, you know, and a real peak. And I think it was similar again. Like, you know, it was a bog, bog heavy that I didn't think he loved. I thought it was just a funny race. He was close up to the speed. You know, my only query is whether Gay's horses are going quite as well this year. And there's quite a few stables that are, you know, some are some are just red hot at the moment. Like, you know, Waller, Ma, Bjorn Baker, that sort of thing. And some are some are not not so at the moment. But I think he can. He can bounce back. And it's not it's not sort of a vintage Cox Plate. And I don't even know how many are going to run. But that Turnbull was, you know, there was like 50 lengths across the field. So there's going to be a few potentially tired horses out of it.
Speaker 3Yeah, very much so. It's interesting. A little bit of a back story to the story. I found him on his very first run at Longchamp and made the inquiry. And they were half interested in selling and they wanted to run once more and then unfortunately won that. But. I'm a bit of a skeptic with this horse because post that they would let me buy him, but they wouldn't let me do an Australian vetting on him, which I found very, very peculiar, but not necessarily peculiar for the camp. So I found it very interesting. And then post that, he's obviously went on and did some really good things. Interestingly, his very first career run was on a real heavy track. He won at Doombin on a real. Heavy track and got a terrible ride that day from Tim Clark, and he was still really impressive. I thought it was one of his best runs, but he was only ever, even though they had enormous interest through the private market, they elected to put him through the public auction. And that always has worried me because I know the type of offers they were getting offered prior to the public auction, and they were a lot higher than what he bought at public auction. So it never. Surprised me that he that he had these mystery issues. So. I don't know. I thought he was only just first up. And then yesterday, honestly, I respect what you say about the track, but I thought he was entitled to be, you know, for the level of horse that we saw in a Queen Elizabeth and we've seen previously, I thought he was entitled to be a bit stronger. So. But as you say, we're going to get a six or seven horse Cox played and then. And maybe, maybe that third up top run is what he's looking for. And he's been a little bit behind, but well, I don't know. I love him as a horse overall, but for me, he's very best runs have been in brutal run races. And yeah, I'm very down on him after yesterday.
Speaker 2Yeah. I mean, on one hand, he didn't run down light infantry man, but, you know, cosmic crusade and light infantry man, which is fitter than the other ones on that really heavy track. And. You know, he, he, he, he last preppy around sort of 95 shipping Norton 99 and a half around it. And then 104.3 Queen Elizabeth. So, um, and even the prep before that, he sort of went 98, 98, 104 third up in the turnable. So yeah, there's a pattern there that, that he, he, he progresses pretty sharply third up. And I just, it just felt like a turmoil yesterday on that bog trap with, with a bunch of stayers who were, you know, aren't, aren't at their peak and aren't, this wasn't their grand final. It just seemed like a two fit horses sort of went better. It was a bit of a, it was a bias on the rails too, which sort of helped light infantry man and, um, leaders that are right. There was Stanley dancer, absolutely bolted to lead. So I just thought, I thought the one is sort of off the fence and, um, now the back sort of didn't have much chance. And, and the ones up the front kind of got a bit beaten up by, it was a pretty strong tempo up to the kind of, they walked a little bit early. Then they went really hard all the way. They took 400 and they kind of dropped off and I just thought it was a funny race. So I'm almost going to put a pen. I remember like, I remember last year, not last year. The Warp Speed year, Knight's Choice year, where they all ran on that gluggy, wet Caulfield Cup and a whole lot of them, you know, ran down the track there like Warp Speed and Knight's Choice and then they, you know, ran in the Melbourne Cup on a dry track and they all turned around. I just wonder whether that Turnbull form is actually one they almost just put a pen through all of them as though ignore the race and just move on.
Speaker 3You can nearly say that about Caulfield a couple of weeks prior too, couldn't you? Yeah, yeah. Particularly that track was.
Speaker 2It was, yeah. Like it could be one of those springs where if it suddenly dries up, it's just trust them on what they've done in the past and kind of ignore what's going on now.
Speaker 3Yeah, I like that theory.
Speaker 2Yeah, very much so. All right. Half yours. Obviously won the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup double last year in pretty impressive style. You were all over them in the Melbourne Cup last year and you're 100% right. It was absolutely bolted in. And then he definitely had a below par. The Queensland campaign, third in the Doom and Cup, fourth in the Q22. Though he sort of was ridden a bit strangely, you know, well off the pace. That Q22 was forgivable, I think. They ran 28 lengths below standard for the first half.
Speaker 3It's not even a race, is it?
Speaker 2Yeah, it wasn't a race. And then I thought he was good in the Maccabi Diva. And then again, it was okay in the Turnbull. I thought in the wet track he might do better. But again, I just think it was hard for these horses, second up on that heavy track. It looks like he's looking for 2,400. I would. Say after that run, they'll probably go to the Caulfield Cup now rather than the Cox Plate.
Speaker 3They interviewed McAvoy before the race and they said he wasn't sure. Yeah. And the run was to determine that. You would say, I thought at one stage he was going to loom into it, to be really honest, yesterday. First up, he was really dominant sectionally coming from back in the field in a walking race where they did come home well. Yeah. But, yeah, I didn't like his Queensland. And the Melbourne Cup is a graveyard for racehorses in general in terms of them coming back, especially for the winners. Yeah. I haven't liked both these runs, this little prep, but he's coming off that Queensland prep so he had residual fitness. So he's entitled to do a little bit more than some of these coming off a spring, off an autumn carnival. Yeah. I don't think it's a very strong race this year at all. But he's probably not one I'm wanting to, to gravitate towards as a top two chance. So, yeah, look, on ability, he's got some good qualities, but I still want to see him do it. You know, I thought he was going to do something yesterday and I thought he was entitled to finish probably a length or two closer.
Speaker 2Yeah. I mean, you sort of got to take him on trust now because he's rating three or four lengths below what he was doing in the spring last year. And he now has to carry five kgs more on the Corporal Cup and six kgs more on the Melbourne Cup. A hundred percent. Yeah. You know, you want a horse to be on, an upward spiral if they're doing that. And I don't think he even met with him. So, you've got to remember last year he was
Speaker 3thrown in with no weight. It was a real suss year. And I think it was, you know, timing's everything. And I think he had it last year.
Speaker 2Yeah. Buckaroo, well, he got beat about 29 lengths or something last year. So I don't know if there's an issue with him. Jeez, they've put this horse for the ring. Haven't they? Like, he's got beat a nose and a clock's plate by Via Sestina. And, you know, he's done some pretty impressive things over here. Run second in the Corporal Cup. But in two Melbourne Cups, he didn't finish last year. And he just keeps sort of fronting up. But, yeah, geez, he didn't enjoy yesterday. So, whether he goes to a Corporal Cup off that, whether they just blame the wet track or whether there's something wrong with him, I'm not sure. But he's an eight. He's an eight-year-old now.
Speaker 3But he was also third up yesterday, which I think's important. Like, he had a better base. He's really had bugger all racing all year too, Dean. So that says to me there's a little issue there.
Speaker 2Yeah. He had a throat problem after the Peter Young. Yeah, right. Yeah. So maybe he just isn't the same horse anymore.
Speaker 3Yeah, look, as you say, on his old form, you're scared of him. But, yeah, I'm happy to let him go.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah. He's sort of been more of a 1,800 to 2,000 horse here so far. He did run second to She's a Hustler in the Zipping Classic last year. I guess off that Turnbull run, given he ran second, I would presume he'd be going to the Cox Plate.
Speaker 3Yeah, I would think so. He's obviously shown a real liking for Flemington as well. So he's by far with me. His best run was Australia Cup last year. And I just think he's a really tough horse. So I know there's a lot of people sort of questioning the format of yesterday, but he was Flemington. He loves a bit of tempo. He was obviously fairly wound up. I think he's a little bit underrated, but I'm probably going to want to see him in a Cox Plate rather than a Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah, that seems about right. Race for him. Aliana. I love this mare personally. I think she's super high quality. I'd say of the Aussie horses, certainly for a Melbourne Cup. She'd have to be a big chance. I know she's got 58 kgs, and it's a lot for a mare, but the weight scale is a bit different. I mean, I look at very elegant, and she carried 57 and won by more than four lengths. So people try to compare her to Maccabi Diva and that sort of thing. But, you know, very elegant was able to do it with, I guess, the equivalent weight on the weight scale and absolutely donkey-legged them. I'm a fan of this mare. I think she profiles similarly to very elegant, and I think the longer the better for her from mine. But what do you make of Aliana?
Speaker 3Do you think they'll go the Cox Plate or will they go the Caulfield Cup?
Speaker 2I think they will go Cox Plate. I think they'll do the same as what they did with very elegant. Yes. Yeah. But I, I mean, well, there's a very good chance in the Cox Plate, but I have a feeling that this has been in the back of their mind the whole time that Cox Played into Melbourne Cup. I thought running the Turnbull was the run of the race. And yeah, I think she's a huge chance in the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 3Obviously, something hasn't been right with her because you saw she got beat 10 lengths, and she's been normally the most consistent horse in training first up. And there was rumours that there was a little virus through the stable early. And so I think that's definitely put them behind from a fitness point of view. I would think you would be right, I think, because you look at her 2,400 metre record, and I think she's two from two, albeit one's a Dirty Rotten Oaks, which don't really count anymore.
Speaker 2The Derby, actually. She won the Derby. Oh, the Derby. Yeah. Had a good time too, and then won the Tankred.
Speaker 3Yeah. You look at that Tankred run, and you just sort of say, well, you're in the top two horses in Australia, wherever you run, you want to be with. But I just think yesterday, yesterday was a case of, when you look where she was in the run, she wasn't, you know, her and Cosmic Crusader, similar spots, but I just think she was a run behind fitness-wise. So she's my cocksplate horse, and yeah, she's a weapon.
Speaker 2Yeah, she's a superstar. And yeah, I guess you're relying on Waller. We were talking about Waller before in terms of the miles and the legs type thing, where he doesn't quite do as much as the EuroPrentice and Maher, and he's going to have Eliana coming in here off. It'll only be, you know, 7,000 metres, not the 10,000 that we like. But we also spoke last year about how if there are horses that can overcome that, they come out of the cocksplate. Yes. Yeah. And so, I mean, it seems like a very similar prep to very elegant to me.
Speaker 3So for me, I probably don't want to know her in a Melbourne Cup. I don't want to know her in a Caulfield. Sorry, if she was going to the Caulfield Cup, I think she's a top two. And probably the one they all have to beat. But I really think that she's been that run behind. And you make a lot of sense when you sort of say they'll do the, you know, Steve Sistina, very elegant type thing, go to a cocksplate. And then obviously, if she runs well there, they'll probably throw her into a Melbourne Cup. But she won't have that grounding for mine for a Melbourne Cup. And there's just a couple there that they've got equal or better ratings than her. So if they show up, that just lessens my enthusiasm for a Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 2Yeah, okay. All right. Birdman, I think they're going cocksplate is what I've heard. He seems to be more effective in Australia over sort of 1800 to 2000 rather than staying trips. And that seems to be what they've landed on. So one of the Underwood, I think he goes to the Might and Power against she's Alibi this Saturday. And then I would presume goes to the cocksplate.
Speaker 3Yeah, I agree with everything you said there. He doesn't really stick on and stay strongly. He's a far better 18-2000 horse. So I don't want to know him in a cocksplate. But yeah, he's actually got a really good winning record. He's last sort of half a dozen starts.
Speaker 2Yeah, on a Durban Cup and won the Underwood. So he's going as well as he's ever gone. Yeah. All right. Cosmic Crusader. sounds like after his win in the Turnbulls They are tossing up the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup. It didn't seem like Bob Peters had made any sort of decision yet. Where would you go?
Speaker 3Personally, I would freshen him in running those couple of mile races. But, look, he's Maurice. He handled that track yesterday quite well. He had very good soft track sort of form, but it's just a different pain barrier when you start getting him up over 2,400. And, look, his biggest ace coming into yesterday in this prep is he's got a lot of runs under his belt, so he's very, very fit. Underrated trainers and, look, I probably want to be with Aliana after yesterday if they go into a Cox Plate. And I just think he's just that level off the really the top four or five.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah. Pres at the moment. They've still got her paid up, but she ran second behind pride of Jenny over a mile. I guess maybe she'll run in the Might and Power, and then there will be some rough hope that she might run in the Caulfield Cup on the backup.
Speaker 3I think it would only be if Mr. Yang wanted to run her in a Caulfield Cup, to be honest. She just hasn't been the same horse for a while. That Oak Shee one was run exceptionally slow. And interestingly, they haven't really shown any real intention to get her back over a long staying trip. So whether they're thinking, well, you know, it's a free shot limo as well, but I don't think she's going as well, Dean. So I'm more than happy to pass her on.
Speaker 2Yeah, I agree. I just wonder whether they feel like she's not doing it at the top level over a mile anymore. Yeah. And so I guess they'll try her over 2,000, I presume, in the Might and Power, and then, yeah, maybe they then go, well, if we're not winning any majors here, do we try to step up and trip just to see if she can be effective now? Because here's a multiple Oaks winner. Yeah. So maybe they give her one last shot, and if she's not sort of performing up, maybe she goes to the breeding barn.
Speaker 3I would, if I owned her, I would be, you know, the mire into a matriarch or something like that. Peep her at mayor's grade. If she's there, she's scary. We know Prida Jenny doesn't run 2,000 strongly, so I would think the matriarchs are the best hope. Yeah. But, yeah. I'd be happy to take her on in anything apart from mayor's grade myself.
Speaker 2Yeah. Kingswood is in there. He ran heavily and won it, and then was fourth in the Underwood, sitting on a strong tempo, and so stuck on the right, beating 4.3 lengths. But he got 55 kgs. Seems a lot of weight for him. But he did win a, I think he won a group one in New Zealand. Yeah. But that's a lot of weight for him.
Speaker 3I always. I smile when I see his horse's name because I used to love Ted Bullpit, Kingswood Country, but that's as close as I can come to give you a recommendation for him. He's a lovely group three horse. He's blooped his group one, which, good on him, but, yeah. Not here. Yeah.
Speaker 2Knight's choice. I think we'll see a blowout winner a couple of years ago. He's actually going well, this horse. He, yeah. And I'm just, I'm going to jump out. He jumped out really, really well over 4.1 under the call field. And I went, oh, that was, that was pretty impressive. Cause he'd been coming off. He sort of had a huge break after the Melbourne cup had one run and a big, long break, three runs in the Queensland where he didn't do anything, but maybe the tracks were too wet. And then he ran first up in the heavily and it was just wet. So he's, he just can't go a yard on the wet. And then the naturalism, he was absolutely bolting in behind them. And he kind of just never really got clear. And so I actually think he's. Going well. If he can find a dry track run somewhere. Um, but, uh, but, uh, you know, he's, he's now had to carry an extra five kgs for a Melbourne cup this year.
Speaker 3I just think it was a Melbourne cup that he won. He was on a six day backup. He had the miles on his legs and basically said, hasn't gone close for his connection since. So he's just a Melbourne cup victim. And yeah, unfortunately it's just another one. That's impossibly hard to place for them. And so really, you know, he, yeah, he'd need one of those tricky set weights and penalties type races and everyone fall over again, but not for me.
Speaker 2Yeah. I, I just think he's going better than he has for a while. And dry track Bendigo cup or something along the way that he could find. I, um, I reckon he could surprise the odds of a dry track because he's going a lot better than he has for a long time. Okay. I respect that. Yes. Uh, middle earth was one that, that you, you know, was spot on about, and the fact that, that he was really highly performed overseas and, you know, we hadn't really seen it at all in Australia until the Melbourne cup where he, he, he lived up to the reps you gave him and ran a really good third. Yeah. And, uh, since then, I don't know, heavily the Underwood and the Turnbull and sort of, uh, he was the one, the chairman. and Doonban last prep. So he's obviously got a one-track mind for the Cups. What do you think about him for the Cups this year?
Speaker 3Yeah, I haven't liked anything that I've seen really, even the Doonban win. I thought it was very, very ho-hum. And you take that out and he's done absolutely bugger all since. So he was sort of, you know, he was served up the other day, didn't do much, I didn't think. And you're very much running around as the hundreds chance for a Melbourne Cup. And I think as an owner, you're just hoping he can run, you know, top 10. But I think he's gone. You rightly didn't probably like him from a Melbourne Cup point of view. The thing that kept him in that race was he was on, you know, he had fitness and he had a bit of a quick back up. But, you know, go back to your original comments, I think. I remember you saying he hasn't really done anything in Australia and you're 100% right. And that probably still remains true now. So as a year older, yeah, he's got none this year.
Speaker 2Fair enough. Speaking of horses that got none. He somehow stole a Sydney Cup, didn't he? Oh, yeah, yeah. 20 lengths below standard for the first half and just stuck on in one. Good. He's run. He's run last in a Premier's Cup and then second last in the Newcastle Cup. So I'd be surprised if they were paying up for the Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 3I think the Newcastle Cup was rubbish and he got beat eight there. Bearing in mind, he was coming off a Flemington May run, so he had good residual fitness coming into this prep. He's, yeah, he's just an old one batter that, again, you know, he'd be looking for a Bendigo Cup or a shitty third tier type. Country Cup type race, but he's too hard to place now because he's a group one winner. So, yeah, you let those type of horses go and you'll end up with more money than not.
Speaker 2Yeah. All right. So now we start to get into the internationals. Amphijar is the first of them. Qualifying run was a win in the Glorious Stakes. He won that by a link on the quarter, I think, beating Opportunity. Prince of Baron ran fifth in the Glorious Stakes. And then ran second in that year's Melbourne Cup. That's the sort of direct form precedent I can get for that runner. I think they've got an international jockey coming over that isn't particularly highly regarded from what I understand. But what are your thoughts on Amphijar? Do you know who they were talking rider was? I got more tabs open than good. Ray Dawson, was it? Yeah, Ray Dawson, yeah. Yeah, give us your thoughts on trainer, jockey and horse. He's a seven-year-old. It is right on the market for the course. Yeah, I think
Speaker 3that probably reflects the lack of depth because I think, you know, the ones that we've just gone through, there's no doubt some of them, if they found their old form, would be uber scary. But they're all on the wrong side of the mountain or probably not going there. This Roger Varian is a really, really good trainer. He's a ripping trainer. Every bit as good as anything that we've got here. So I respect him. Ray Dawson, he's your Dean. Just a bit of a journeyman. Runs around, can find the odd horse. Rides okay. He's run at Goodwood. Would rate and have him a genuine top three chance, top four chance. So scary in that regard. He's run prior to Map of Stars, was only okay. But Map of Stars is a handy horse, albeit a little bit of out of form. The boiling point run, you're going to look at, again, it was at Goodwood. Now, you've got to understand, there's certain tracks over there, it's like Canterbury, it's like Mini Valley. There's just some horses for courses, Ipswich, those type of horses. So he's one of them. He forms good in, it's consistent, but he's always been just off them. And interestingly, I hate seeing horses that they get deep into their career or they might be a dozen starts and then all of a sudden, they're trying to distance that they've never tried. They did that the other day at Goodwood. Opportunity is a really nice horse that he beat. To be fair, he beat him comfortably, but it was the effort in the times. Sectionally, he was very good, and overall rating was excellent. So you want to include him just due to the potential lack of depth that's going to be in the race. I don't want to – I'm probably happy to find two or three that will beat him, but if he won, it wouldn't knock me over.
Speaker 2Yeah, okay. Some of the stats that Adam had pulled together for the overseas raiders had won the Caulfield Cup. All five overseas raiders had won, ran first or second in their last two starts. All five had either run in a group one last start or won their last start. Four out of five had won or been beaten less than 3.6 lengths at their last start. Enfjar, Your Horse, Wine Darksy, and Point of Law all qualified for those. But in terms of the ratings, what was interesting is I think 11 out of the 12 place-getters from overseas horses had a peak time form rating of 118 or more. Yeah. And Enfjar's – Wine Darksy's 116, Wine Darksy's 115. So is that your sense that both overall and from an international perspective that maybe the CS Caulfield Cup is not as strong as predicted?
Speaker 3It's definitely not, especially if our old crocodiles, our old – you know, if they don't show up here, it's a very, very long tail to this race. It wasn't overly strong last year either, but, yeah, if we're just going off the pure ratings, ignore the time form ratings to a little bit of a degree. But, yeah, this last start effort was excellent, and the bloke knows how to train, so I definitely want to have him as a top four hope.
Speaker 2Okay. Melbourne Cup?
Speaker 3No, Melbourne Cup, no, no. I just really – when you look at his – he's still got a bit of a spurt in his sectionals, and that would say the only way he could win a Melbourne Cup if we got a – a green moon type year where they walk and all of a sudden that's a 400-metre sprint, which you occasionally get probably three out of 20 years. Yeah. So if it's a genuine staying test, I think he'll be well exposed. So your hope to get some money out of this bloke will be a Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 2Yeah. All right, next horse is Green Spaces, won the Derby for Bjorn in the autumn. Four-year-olds who've won the Derby have quite a good record in the Caulfield Cup. Sky Heights won in 1999, non-majeure, and second. Roman Emperor ran second. Mongolian Khan for Murray Baker won. Listening to Bjorn speak, the race he really wants is the Melbourne Cup because Murray Baker is as incredible a stage runner as he was. I think he had some placings in the Melbourne Cup and never quite won it. I thought his Metrop run was just fair yesterday. He was sort of fourth or fifth, but he had Atabaskan making a lot of ground on him. They absolutely walked in that Metrop, but I'm just not sure whether he's quite going well. I don't know. I don't think he's done enough for anything this year.
Speaker 3Well, I'm convinced he's just no bloody good. I don't understand the wrap around this horse whatsoever. You know, you referenced our Mongolian Khan, but was that the last time a Derby horse has actually done anything? Like, our Derbys are rubbish, these guys, you know? It's been a while. Interestingly, out of his Derby, there's been 19 runners from that race, and we haven't had a Metropolitan winner come out of the race. We've had one provincial winner and no country winner. So, it was just. A rubbish race.
Speaker 2Yeah, they ran 0.4 first half and minus 2.4 second half, so they were entitled to run some good time in that Derby, and they didn't.
Speaker 3Yeah, I just think he's a dingo. Don't like him. Yeah, fair enough.
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Automatically, 1% is a very small fraction of the usual profit on turnover of our memberships, plus it saves a heap of time. Just an example, Greyhound Genius is one of our memberships. We just record at the TAB price. When the tip's sent, there's obviously 100 bookies available, but we don't record the top price, we just record whatever the TAB is at. There was a winner recently that paid $3.20. The automated betting members secured $4.20 for that winner. The bet, that was an additional profit of $100 for a cost of just $1 for placing that bet automatically. A third-party organisation, if you want details, just email [email protected] or go to the Contact Us page at winningedgeinvestments.com and ask. It's a third-party organisation, but basically it's all encrypted and you do it all yourself. It's your own betting bookies. You set up, connect your own accounts with it, places the bets, automatically for you. It can just read our tips as soon as they come through. You just connect your account and it just places them all automatically for you. Some of our memberships, like Vic and SA Tips, for example, that's providing tips and ratings for a lot of runners. Rather than having to sit in the morning and put all your bets on that bet there manually, I can just put those all along at the drop of a hat, so it saves a heap of time for members. Okay, Royal Supremacy. Oh, whoops. Skipped. Skipping here. This is your horse, so you're gonna be able to give us some really strong insight into him. And he was obviously a really nice winner of the JRA Cup. Just pulling up quickly some of the stats on Queensland prep horses in the Caulfield Cup. In 2019, horses having one or more runs over the Queensland Cup have won three core fill cups in one second three of those four then went on to win the melbourne cup they have a really good record all four won their last start in queensland at a distance of 2200 meters or more by 1.9 lengths or more the only horse that has anything like that is royal supremacy we won the q22 by 1.6 lengths last start so from a profiling perspective of those queensland winter prep horses who you know they only have you know between one and three runners each year have that sort of queensland went to prep into a courtful cup and that record's just unbelievable winning you know down to claire won the melbourne cup in 2019 sin devise won the courtful cup and second the melbourne cup in 21 without a fight won them both in 23 and half he was one of them both in 25 so uh it's that ideal lead up and in royal supremacy he you know he won the metro last year fifth in the caulfield cup it was sort of over raced a bit and was still only beaten two and a half lengths and then over race i think in the melbourne cup and you know like we said he won that q22 he's come back in good form winning a gra cup he he profiles nicely what what what do you think about him now that he's a bit more mature Speaker 3yeah i really liked him when i bought him overseas as a as a you know a lightweight type horse and that's how he sort of turned out yeah big big pot you got to have on him is the qe2 in queensland and they went ridiculously slow and everyone just sat off him um because most riders these days probably just don't have that sense of you know the old jimmy cassidy i know how fast i'm going type they don't have
Speaker 2clocks in their head anymore they don't know
Speaker 3there's a couple of guys out there that do but yeah they just all ride to the speed maps these days and yeah we saw again the other day look you had an insane 30 meter rail at caulfield and they just let him absolutely crawl if he had four legs he had to win the
Speaker 2other day so 24 links below
Speaker 3standard yeah so he's not going to see anything like that um the one thing i will say is racing managers are so much better than they were this time last year we won that group one with him um because he just got the the perfect spot on the map and i think there was better runs in the race than him that day vauban and a couple others but i just don't think he's this level dean look as much as i love him he's a free horse to us so he owes us nothing but i really just don't think he's that level i'm sure there'll be plenty of media opponents oh he's going to lead and run him along like pride of jenny that's so far from the truth um he just doesn't have that speed
Speaker 2but well actually like you know he's he's running those really slow races 28 lengths below standard and the q22 24 lengths below standard gra but the caulfield copy ran and we only got beat two and a half lengths and he actually wrote him a lot colder that day he said it would sort of 15th early he was seventh on the turn only the game they ran 16 lengths above standard for the first half in that race yep yep and he only gets two more kgs here so you know and he over raced and he's obviously more mature now so it's probably that run as well as the queensland prep that sort of still has me interested you know that he could
Speaker 3be up to it and you know even you mentioned those other horses bart used to do it you know he did it with feud and there's there's a heap of them but yeah i think he's a genuine minor money hope but as far as a winning chance he just doesn't have the quality of four or five of them but he's definitely a
Speaker 2place to go like yeah definitely yeah look
Speaker 3look you know he's a free horse we'll run there all the shimmy is going well but um phil cups his biggest hope from a check point of view
Speaker 2yeah well you've done very well i mean one nearly two mil so yeah what a great purchase yeah he was wine dark sea i sort of mentioned him again uh in relation to it takes a lot of the historical boxes of you know the type of horse that goes well in a cool for a copy one a jeffrey figure here a lot of people will know that run one violent happening beat jubai honor that obviously a lot of us are familiar with red cadeau i think ran second and fourth in that jeffrey freer before finishing second in the melbourne cup two or three times uh tell us about yeah tell us about wine dark sea as well in the market is uh single single
Speaker 3horse is that one of the most popular horses that you've seen i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life i think it's the most popular horse that i've ever seen in my life you know he's still a young guy but um he's traveled well here i i really like him if we just go off some times and ratings there's the only horse that gets close to him in this race is aliana and i think she goes obviously i'm hoping she goes to cox play um and given where i've got them rated i think he could win quite easily um easily so i'm not as confident about that but i think he could win quite easily um easily so i'm not as confident i'm not as confident about that but i think he could win quite easily um easily so i'm not as confident about that but i think he could win quite easily um easily so i'm not as confident as i was with protectionists from a melbourne cup point of view but i'm not far off it
Speaker 2yeah right and when did you buy him was it before that jeffrey freer or
Speaker 3i bought it i bought him when he was a benchmark 72 horse about three runs ago okay yeah and to give you some type of context he's his best rating would win it would have won that would have beat serdelius last year sorry this year yep he's average rating aliana is the only one that that has rated and it was her peak run that rated there so i've got him off the charts in that regard two things that worry me he in the newberry race he sweated up a little bit and i know he went for a track work down the road and he lost 15 kilos that day and he lost 18 kilos out of the the newberry run so he's quite a they say he's quite a relaxed horse but i don't think he's quite a relaxed horse but i think he's but i am very worried that he gets in front of a corfield cup and maybe you know that maybe that brings him back to the field but like he's been able to run sectionals that the what would be listed or group three sprinters have been running on the same day over the over 1200 and he's been running 2400s and further i much much much prefer him for a corfield cup than a melbourne cup not to say that he won't run the melbourne cup but you'll look at his run to he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's been running 2400s and further he's
Speaker 2been running 2400s you'll actually have him a few pairs back?
Speaker 3Yeah, I wouldn't want to see him lead in a Caulfield Cup. He could do it, but I will be wanting to see him buried midfield, like a Southern Speed, like a, you know. I think the Caulfield Cup proves you don't really want to try and run them. You don't want to do a might and power. You know, he's not might and power, but he's still quite inexperienced, this horse, so giving him something to chase won't be the worst thing. The race the other day at Newbury, there was no leaders, so he sort of got there by default. The Newmarket race, there was no leaders. He sat second pair at Carlisle. He's got some really good form. It won't worry me because he does relax, so he's not a puller. He's not a royal supremacy that wants to get on the chewy and get going. He's very, very sort of touch and just sprint.
Speaker 2He looks like he'd run on good. He's very, very firm all the time. Have you got any insight into him on a wet track?
Speaker 3Yeah, it's funny, the breed would say he wants soft. That would be my only little query because, you know, they've deliberately sort of avoided that. I know, speaking to the guy that bred him, he's still in the ownership, he sort of said we always thought he would be a wet tracker only. Right, okay. But don't be worried. If we show up and it's hard as a bull's forehead, that won't worry him at all. He's raced on some very firm tracks over there, so that's no issue. Yeah. But I know Sportsbet had him $15, and I don't know whether that's still the case or not.
Speaker 2Yeah, there's a few of them got him $15.
Speaker 3Yeah, that's an insane price, and you can't have enough on him each way at that figure.
Speaker 2Yeah, well, very, very strong push for a long Darcy. Asterix, he won one of those weaker races in Queensland. I don't think he's up to much, and he's eight years old now.
Speaker 3I think I saw him fall out the back of the TV yesterday, so I won't be surprised if he pulls up because, yeah, he was beating a long ways. I actually like that horse. I think he's a really underrated horse. I'd love to back him in a third-tier staying race somewhere. Yeah. Because I actually think he's got something like that. Every now and then he produces a really good run. I think his Gosford run, I really like that. But, yeah, not for this level.
Speaker 2No. Yeah. Lee Yass transferred from Gay to Kieran Marr, managed to win first up at Randwick, the 15-level Iron Gold Cup, and. Fourth in the Kingston town.
Speaker 3This is a horse I've always sort of had some opinion of, and I've seen there's a couple being moved from Gay to Marr recently, but if I wanted to back one at a really, really big price, I think you could back him, but I don't think he's passed the ballot, so he might even struggle to get into the race.
Speaker 2Yeah, it looks like he hasn't passed the ballot,
Speaker 3so. I'm not sure. But if he somehow, you know, if he ran into Herbert Power and then seven-day back up into a Caulfield Cup without seeing the race, he's one that does have a bit of quality and a bit of class.
Speaker 2Yeah, well, he won at Kingston town, then he ran, he was favourite for the Turnbull, actually, and ran third behind V.S. Astina and Buckaroo. Yeah. And then he sort of just tapered off, had four terrible runs, had 400 days off the scene, and then has just returned for Kieran Marr. Yeah, he's kind of getting him back up to a certain level. It's just whether he can get him up to that level again.
Speaker 3Yeah, he's definitely not a winning chance, but, you know, everyone always looks for those wide exotics that's third and fourth in a Caulfield Cup. Yeah. He would be one I'd look at.
Speaker 2All right. I feel like I've skipped over something. Well, maybe not. Militarise, he ran in the Epsom, I think, yesterday, so I can't imagine he'll be going here.
Speaker 3No, they. Believe it or not, there has been horses come out of Epsom that go to Caulfield Cups, but it's just such a. It's a terrible idea.
Speaker 2Martin Power did it, but.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's just a terrible platform, so you always take those type of horses on. He's a genuine enough horse, so he never wins, but, yeah.
Speaker 2Yeah. Thank you, George. He's sort of always had a bit of raps on him, I think, ever since he came over from the UK. He ran second last in the Melbourne Cup two years ago, and he was sort of fresh off the plane, I guess, or first. First prep, anyway, in Australia. And they sort of had him winning some benchmark hundreds the next prep, and then he did run second in the Naturalism last start, but did find it a bit tough in the Turnbull on the heavy track yesterday.
Speaker 3Not all horses that rate really good overseas come here and do well. He was one that rated through the roof as a young horse, and then you see he's had 400 days off. And every time you see 300 days, 400 days, you know it's a serious injury. Yeah. And I'm always very happy to be against those type of horses. And, look, he's doing well in these benchmark sort of lower-level stuff, but he seems to be on all the tipsters, whether he's just that great horse everyone wants to tip him, but he's nowhere near what he used to be, and he's still a fair way off what would be required to win a Caulfield Cup.
Speaker 2Yeah. Salkin is coming back from the injury trial as well. He had 999 days off for the Heatherleys. It was his second in the Melbourne Cup, but, you know, the German in 2023 behind without a fight. He only got beat 2.8 lengths in the Naturalism. I think that was certainly an improved run from him. He's an eight-year-old trying to do it off such a long break. That would seem pretty hard to do.
Speaker 3As a rule, you don't improve him off William Haggis, and I know they paid a lot of money for him. And, yeah, you don't improve off him, and he's a wet tracker. Well, he used to be a wet tracker, and they've hardly found a wet track for him since he's been in Australia, but, as you said, you can't have three-plus years off and think you're going to be featuring in a decent race. He's none. Yeah.
Speaker 2All right, another interesting one. Stafford here, he won an alleged stakes at the Currah over 2,000, ran sixth in a Huxley stakes at Chester over 2,100, ran third in a Lenoban stakes over 2,400. I don't really know those races very well, and I don't think there's any horses that have come to Australia off that type of form and done well, but he's Joseph O'Brien, and he's in the market for the Caulfield Cup and also seems to be aiming for the Melbourne Cup. What do you know about Stafford?
Speaker 3Very important. If you get him in a sweep, hopefully they pay for last because that's his best hope. Joseph O'Brien's got more horses than Kieran Mara at the moment, and
Speaker 2he's getting anything
Speaker 3that's got any ability. They're all getting transferred to Joseph. This thing, he's got a really high rating, official rating of 111, but yeah, he's a bit of a dingo, to be honest.
Speaker 2They're going to try and qualify, I guess, for a Geelong Cup or a Moody Valley Cup, or would he even be a chance in those races?
Speaker 3I don't know if he starts now, but apart from that, he's no good. But he's just no good.
Speaker 2Great. I love those. Wotton Verney, he so far in Australia has sort of appeared more of a 2,000-metre horse than they think he's a real wet tracker. Actually, he ran in the Bart Cummings yesterday, but I don't think he did too much.
Speaker 3No, I actually thought he might have ran well. He got the suck run behind the lead. I thought he was going to come and do something for me, and he did nothing. He's not actually that very good a horse. He's a listed Group 3-type horse at best, and wide of a carnival-type horse, to be really honest.
Speaker 2Yeah, okay. Yeah. Campbell Dino is another who is pretty out of form, and then he got the wet tracking lead in the Bart Cummings, and he was pretty disappointing at every chance.
Speaker 3Yeah, I've never liked this horse. I've always thought he's lucky to win a benchmark 100, and he's probably overachieved in his career to Fomolin, so he's none.
Speaker 2Yeah. One smooth operator's nine, and I don't think he's ever had a run yet.
Speaker 3I think he has. Or did he get scratched all the time? He's been in it a number of times.
Speaker 2Yeah, he's been entered, but I think he – actually, he ran in the Naturalism, sorry. He ran 13th. Yeah. And it was supposed to run the last couple of weeks, and he didn't.
Speaker 3If – and nothing would surprise you in Melbourne, but if they introduced all-weather tracks – this is the horse you want to bat, because he's a freak on the all-weather, and he just can't transfer – Sorry, I must have said something wrong. Yeah. He just can't transfer it to turf, and the owners will be having the time of their life, I'm sure, but yeah, his runs in Australia for the new trainer have been very average, and there's just no figures there that – even his mother wouldn't back him, I think, in current form, so he's not much.
Speaker 2Fair enough. She's a hustler. Lightweight chance here for Graham Begg. Won the zipping beat, like a true man, over 2,400 at Caulfield last year. I think they sort of – they ran an amazing race first up on the Queen of the Turf last prep in that Pride of Jenny race where they had 10 lengths above standard, and she was sort of stuck out facing the breeze and hit the line really well, and third in the Holland-Alba Hyde Pride of Jenny and Birdman, where she ran well, and then – I feel like that Queen of the Turf race just cooked her being too close to that speed and not getting any cover first up, and she sort of – they've just got the tactics wrong quite a few times, I think, on her. They sort of – they chased Pride of Jenny when she ran plus 11 in the Doonban Cup, and then in the Royal Supremacy race when they should have been right up probably leading your horse when they ran just warped. They just had to, you know, fly the lengths six minutes off. And then in the Turnbull again, you know, it was a rails and runs. That day, and they have her sitting out in the breeze, and she sort of tufted on a track that she doesn't like. But she's one that's sort of profiled as a nice little lightweight chance for the Caulfield Cup, and I do feel like they've got their tactics wrong. I think the rider changes from Geordie Charles to Michael D, who did win a Caulfield Cup a few years ago, and he was red hot, sort of. He was red hot for a few years there in Group Ones, and he's been a bit hot the last couple of years. I haven't sort of seen him anymore.
Speaker 3Lloyd gave him plenty of chances, didn't he? And he was doing really well. Yeah, he won lots of
Speaker 2Group Ones all across the board at Runners at Odds and stuff. But even though he's won a VRC Derby and he's won a Caulfield Cup, he's probably more of a shorter course jockey than a longer course. But anyway, I think this horse is better than she's sort of been showing, and she's had that Queensland prep. What do you make of She's a Hustler?
Speaker 3I don't know. I've got to admit, every time I see this horse, I think, what am I missing here? Because she always starts in the market. She's honestly just never been one of mine, and I don't see the attraction with her. She's coming up to 12 months since she's won a race. She's only had one placing in that time as well. I don't know. She's not for me, but I certainly respect what you do, Dean, and if you like her, well, that probably keeps her under guard. The Queensland prep is definitely a positive, everyone's touched on, but to me, she's another one that's – yeah, I don't know what she is, and with me, she doesn't have any figures, so I just take those type of ones on all the time.
Speaker 2Yeah, her first 11 runs, she'd never run worse than second, and she sort of won a group two, and she's on Pacer, and she just looked like she was going to be a really nice Caulfield Cup horse, and that's been their sole aim since their zipping. And I just think a lot of stuff hasn't gone right for her, so I just hope she can actually get a good ride on some smart tactics and see how she can go fair track, and she might be in the money in the Caulfield Cup. Yeah, fair enough. The goal of Spain, I thought it was a quick play in there in the matchup yesterday.
Speaker 3Yeah, you mentioned they went slow, and they sort of rode him cold. To me, he's always been a bit overrated. At least he's probably going to have sort of some type of tick box in the fact that he stays. Yeah, he's probably going to have some type of tick box in the fact that he stays, but that doesn't mean he's going to be a good player. He's probably been as kind as I can to be in there. He ran second in a Sydney Cup, but as we touched on, that was to changing of the guard.
Speaker 2Yeah, he did come from second last, and they ran 20 lengths below the standard first half, so at least that run had some merit to it. Yeah. But he's never been one of mine. He sort of just seems a bit of a run below the good ones. Yeah. Zara Ran, I was really interested to get your thoughts on him, as an import. He's just come with some really big reps. There seems to be a belief from the Marr camp, from what I can read, that they think he could be a real star of the future. He won the naturalism. The time wasn't particularly impressive. They're in minus three the first half and plus point seven the second half. I thought they were entitled to run home quicker than they did. Yeah. But he won. It's his second Aussie prep. I feel like he's a drill driver. He's a dry tracker. That's my assessment of him. And so it didn't surprise me that he struggled in the Turnbull yesterday. And he seemed like a dry tracker overseas as well and failed on the wet there. So, A, do you think that's correct? And, B, how good do you think he could be?
Speaker 3Okay. So, on his three-year-old year, and I sort of touched on that with St. George and that you've always got to be a little bit careful of the three-year-olds, but he had numbers every bit as good as just about anything can in the race. Not quite as good as Wyanduck C and not quite good as Eliana, but definitely at that level. And then I didn't know that there could be that many zeros on the piece of paper because they've paid a huge amount of money for him. Massive, massive amount. But he doesn't know that. I just thought his Caulfield run, look, I know it was on the 11-meter day that day and he's come from back. But… He didn't… It just looked like that was his race in terms of what did he really beat and obviously he was terrible yesterday. He did get beat a long, long way at Leopard Sound on the wet. Yeah. Going into that, he was the three-year-old in Europe that you wanted to be with. And, yeah, I love the fact that they gave him two runs in his first prep and then they're back. So, he is scary because I've seen some of those big numbers that he ran overseas and I'm not thinking he's a… He's definitely not a Melbourne Cup. So, if you want to back him in that, you can back him with me. He definitely won't get that trip. But I think he's one of these typical Europeans that 2022 is perfect. 24 just starts to possibly seem at his end. So… Okay. I expect he'll be really well-backed because he's that lightly-raised horse and even despite coming out of the wait-for-age run yesterday where he went no good. You've got to have him in just because, like I said, I think if those top ones fall away in a Caulfield Cup, he's going to be there and thereabouts. But he's definitely… When I looked the other day, he was $4.50. That was before the Turnbull. I thought that's a ridiculous price. He should be sort of $9 or $10. But he's a top-four hope.
Speaker 2Yeah. I think I was sort of comparing him to half yours. Half yours won Naturalism last year by 3.4 lengths and they ran 2.7 lengths above standard. They finished home really strong. And then Zah ran, you know, he's run at sort of minus 2.4. Yeah, I just thought he was entitled to win it better. I think if it was a bone-dry track, he'd have to be some sort of lightweight hope in the Caulfield Cup. But do you think he's like, you know, in the autumn and maybe spring next year? Like, could he be a type of weight for age, you know, group one horse? I'm going for it.
Speaker 3Yeah, but we've now had five runs in Australia and you've got to say on his five runs in Australia, he'll finish closer to last than first in a Caulfield Cup. It's only that European stuff. And like I said, over there, he did have that acceleration that you want to see. Like, he had sprinter-like late sectionals of fast tempos that only the very good ones… Yeah. But I must say, the trainer that they bought him off, he'd probably be one of five or six in Europe that I wouldn't even look at just because they are that good. And it wouldn't surprise me if this horse never… if he turns into another St. George, you know, another horse with lots of promise, lots of good potential there but never reaches it. So, at 4.50, I really wanted to take him on from a Caulfield Cup point of view. A, because he didn't have the best, two or three ratings and he still hasn't done anything in Australia. But I just love that first little mini prep, he would have been in work for the majority of that next prep. And so, he's going to have really good residual. I think this is the prep that he'll do something if he's going to do something. But as a rule, the Night of Thunders do like the Therma track. So, you're dead right there.
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Speaker 3brit no i wouldn't have him in a 78 at this stage you know he i agree with a long time ago he was all right but yeah he's he's just cooked
Speaker 2i was interested to get your insight on the euphrates because i don't profess to know much at all about the overseas horses but i kind of was watching a few races of his at different times lining up with that sort of thing and i wasn't hugely impressed um and then he's another one that had 686 days off uh yeah you know before his first up challenge had run first run in australia you know i won the one in the kingston town but that was really just a bit of a procession race he pretty much finished in the order that they started uh and then the metrop he found too hard with 59 uh what are your thoughts on him yeah um
Speaker 3if there's one horse one trainer that you don't buy off ever it's aiden o'brien he it's sickening the stats that course is coming out of there um i really thought he was going to be a good horse but i don't think he's going to be a good horse yesterday and i was really really disappointed he he had his chance um yeah that type of break says something wasn't sweet and i was really really interested in him yesterday and he was so disappointing admittedly it was his first run at 2400 this prep but i thought yeah true
Speaker 2yeah really no excuses for for the on paces there no well you know
Speaker 3the the favorite was the newcastle cup horse and i'll touch on that i thought that's rubbish form steel blazing a place in that race um and yeah i just i thought he might have been the left field one that you could have thrown in for a third or a fourth in a core field cup but um yeah i had yeah just as a rule too long off and um didn't do enough
Speaker 2yesterday yeah okay uh or another interesting one here yeah for joseph o'brien he beat your horse defiantly by a head in the ascot state which is a 4100 meter race or something um simmon on ran fourth in that race and then ran third in the melbourne cup and then he uh ran second he got beat four and a half lengths i think by queenstown in the irish saintly to trial rekindling ran second in that trial and then won the melbourne cup so the precedent there but he's not a melbourne hemisphere three-year-old i think he's normal four-year-old what can you tell
Speaker 3us about kisly are yeah um he's a lovely second or third tier horse yeah um i couldn't have him in 20 picks in a core field cup or a melbourne cup he'll stay the trip um and i would say he's a knight's choice type horse um you know the fact that he stays he'll come here very very very fit there is only two assets and he doesn't even have a have a change of speed so um those horses are generally traffic issues and good luck to him but um yeah
Speaker 2he's none i don't think he is in like i don't from what i hear i don't think he's going to run in the core field cup i think he is number 34 on the order of entry for the melbourne cup which generally means he'll get a run yep i assume they'll just go straight into the melbourne cup with
Speaker 3him i would think so yeah he's um he's one pace just stays all day yeah he'd be great for a jericho but not eligible for that and i'm staggered he's coming as well
Speaker 2all right uh deacon i thought was pretty plain in the metro uh so i couldn't imagine him featuring
Speaker 3no i thought he was going to be some hope in a metrop as the blowout left field melbourne type horse um he's never really had those type of ratings he's his mini valley cup win or was it mini valley cup might have been some other race last year it was um it rated okay um but he just doesn't look like he's going to be the same horse and now you look at his prep um he had that one run last well earlier this year so i like the fact that they've got him in a little bit earlier but yeah um if if you wanted one at 150 to one to run third or fourth yeah i wouldn't talk you out of him but um just because he's going to have at least a few runs under his belt but yeah as you say it's hardly the ideal platform coming out of a really slow run race interstate um that and then you're going to win a caulfield cup i wouldn't
Speaker 2think so yeah i hope he wins one of uh new zealand oaks by two and a half lengths one of the australian oaks by half a length um and then it was actually not too bad in the turnbull she uh she was one of the few that kind of stuck with the the bigger names and ran about sixth and it was always a really really high quality race from perspective to run in and run if you run sort of in that top seven they've actually got a really exceptional record and sort of the caulfield cup uh in particular what do you think about hope he
Speaker 3wins um so i'll do a lot of stuff in new zealand with the times um yeah the the race the big race run over there before coming over here set out the back come home too strong best stay type scenario two races prior to that were what i would sort of classify as average tempo races did absolutely it won and did well coming from behind again but um ocean parks are renowned wet trackers so that's probably why i'd overachieved yesterday okay um and generally as a caulfield cup you know they're going to run along you're not going to get slow run races so the fact that it loves the fast tempo um i'd probably rather be with it than say she's a hustler from a mayor's point of view just because you know well it loves the faster tempo and it'll it'll run a trip but it's with my figures it's to give you an idea it's about nine lengths off uh wine dark sea and about six lengths off aliana at least so yeah um yeah fair bit to
Speaker 2come all right uh what a mystery i i can't imagine he'll be getting into
Speaker 3it no um good on him but yeah no
Speaker 2uh bella montana um was one that from a profiling perspective didn't sort of you know one second in the premier's cup to ll cats and uh that was okay but she's been uh below pass around that week newcastle cup and ran third and then and third again to so you are so she doesn't seem to be up to that group one
Speaker 3level long long way off yeah
Speaker 2none yeah uh dark boney another one that's uh a bit of an up-and-comer for simon wilde but hasn't passed the ballot so i guess unless they can sneak in a week before then i won't get a run
Speaker 3yeah i wouldn't back it in a listed race myself but yeah don't like it
Speaker 2jenny vermoose ran yesterday and he's disappointing so she seems not up to them no no nothing uh dual kibos one the metrop uh yesterday he's a little of, you know, slightly made his way to winning a group one here. He'd had a couple of runs overseas and he won a maiden before he came over here. What are your thoughts on him?
Speaker 3Yeah, I didn't like him. I just thought that Metrop was putrid yesterday. That's why I thought the Euphrates was, that was its race to win if it was going to step up to the level we're talking about. He's had the odd run that you look and think, wow, that was sensational from that horse, but his average form for me is way, way, way too far below, you know, some of the middle of the run type horses, so I don't like him doing it. I didn't know whether you might have sort of made a case for him, but yeah.
Speaker 2No, he's not really one of mine. His run in the Metrop behind Royal Supremacy was not bad. He probably stood out compared to all of his other runs. They would have been sort of just okay. I just wondered whether he was one of those, you know, Karen Marr horses that just keeps improving and, you know, could run like a third or fourth in the Melbourne Cup. But his Sydney Cup run, I think he did have excuses, but, you know, he got beat, he ran 9 feet and 6.7 lengths, so it's hard to say he's going to be better over two miles.
Speaker 3The thing I'd probably touch on there, the Metrop and the Sydney Cup, he was both seven days, and if you find a horse seven days into a major, that's generally a really good betting angle. Yeah. I think he sort of had the kitchen sink thrown at him both times there. And, yeah, he had 50 that day in the Metrop last year, wasn't good enough on the seven days, and then I didn't like his Sydney Cup at all. I thought he was very putrid, and as we touched on, they didn't go hard in that race. He was on the seven-day, he had every possible. And I just think we'll probably look back in three months and say, well, he beat absolutely nothing in his Metrop yesterday.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah. It doesn't seem like he's going to be a strong horse. No. Kings Valley has won a Mornington Cup. There seems to be a few run below these.
Speaker 3Yeah, definitely. Yeah, I'm surprised these haven't been spoken about.
Speaker 2Yeah. Lit Steel, she was good in the Bart Cummings yesterday. They were obviously trying to qualify for the Melbourne Cup. She was second in a St. Leger, won a $2,500 at Morfittville. She then won that $2,800 on Melbourne Cup Day by three and a half lengths. So, Denny O'Brien certainly knows how to win cups. He was fifth in the Sydney Cup. I presume now they'll just keep trying, go to the Moonee Valley Cup and just keep trying to qualify her.
Speaker 3Yeah, I would think she's a Moonee Valley, Bendigo Cup. From a Caulfield Cup point of view, the average rating that you need to win with me, she's about five lengths off that. Yeah. And if I'm right with Wine Duck, see, he'll exceed that by a little bit. So, I think she's quite a way off.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think she's more of a Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 3She always sucks me in this.
Speaker 2Yeah, I reckon she could stick on and wouldn't disgrace herself in a Melbourne Cup. It's just, are they going to get her there?
Speaker 3I think she's a half to Denny's other Melbourne Cup horse. What was his name?
Speaker 2Yeah, Val and a Clare. Val and a Clare, yeah. He's a very different horse. He was a big kind of gross thing. And Bailey had two runs into a Melbourne Cup with him, where she can take a lot of racing. Yeah. But she's also not quite as good. Yeah, yeah. Shane Gunn-Gracy ran fourth in the Naturalism, where she led and had her chance. She was well beaten in the Sydney Cups. Yeah, not quite sure what her best distance is really, but.
Speaker 3You just find as you go up in class, generally you go faster. She's an on-speed horse. And I think she's just a victim of finding out that she's not quite as good as she was. And all of her stuff, she was leading type horse.
Speaker 2On very slow tempos. Yeah, there you go. And the Epona she won was really slow tempo. So she seems to just need to find that right race. And that right race was the Naturalism, and she couldn't get it done.
Speaker 3Yeah, no. So she's none.
Speaker 2Mr. Monaco, he won the Bart Cummings yesterday. And so I presume now they just go into the Melbourne Cup. I guess they could run in the Crossville Cup.
Speaker 3Oh, you would think after yesterday they probably will. Yeah. He stays. What was he like overseas? Oh, terrible. Oh, well, sorry. He's a listed horse. Yeah. And I think with respect, that's what he's proven, that he is here.
Speaker 2Yeah. And he's also a real wet tracker, I think.
Speaker 3I agree. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I've got to say he was probably the runner of the race at Hawkesbury first up this prep. So that said, he come back good. Didn't surprise me that he was averaged second up. And I saw $16 yesterday. I thought, no, I'll just wait. They'll forget about him. And he started short, and then obviously he won, and I lost my money.
Speaker 2But, yeah. If there was a heavy track, could he be one of those mile horses that runs a third of all?
Speaker 3Yes. Yeah. So I think he's your middle earth if we show up and it's a torrential Melbourne Cup day.
Speaker 2Yeah. It's a new look. And it seems to be going no good.
Speaker 3Yeah. And he was on a quick back up yesterday, and I don't think he did anything yesterday either. And you look at his form, he's really, he's had one decent run in Australia. Didn't rate great anyway. And everything else, the ambulance has got him. So yeah, yeah, he's no good.
Speaker 2Omni man is one that, well, just Joseph O'Brien has been talking about him a bit. From the perspective that he was going to be there, Caulfield Cup horse, the main Caulfield Cup horse. What can you tell me about his credentials?
Speaker 3As I touched on, he's, Joseph's winning everything. He gets his horses really, really fit. The Ethical Diamond run was a really, really high rating race. Ethical Diamond won the eBall prior to this. Yeah. So that was good.
Speaker 2He ran fourth in that race, but in two and a half lengths. That's a 2,400 metre race. Johan Vermeer ran second in that race and then third in the Caulfield Cup. Yeah. And Vinnie Rowe ran second in that race. So that seems to be not a bad cups race usually.
Speaker 3But the horse doesn't have any form. I'm staggered. I
Speaker 2think they've bought, I think like my race, one of those.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's a New Zealand version.
Speaker 2Yeah, they seem to have bought them. And so I guess that's why he's going there.
Speaker 3Yeah, but he, by the look of him, he doesn't qualify for the Melbourne Cup as yet. No. And I'd be really surprised. He genuinely is one of those slow European horses. Yeah. So they generally do very poorly in Australia.
Speaker 2Yeah. Piggyback, she again was in the Bart Cummings and had a opportunity there and couldn't get it done. She's not really at the top. No, not worth it. Pinhole. I think he ran, he won a benchmark 98 or something and then he hasn't run since. Might have been scratched. Was he supposed to run on the neck shock or something? I think they were saving him for a race next week. Yeah, so if
Speaker 3there's a 500 to 1 chance, this is it. He's Ascot stuff. They were really high rating races, but they were in knock them down, drag them out type style of race. So very, very fast run races where the fastest slow horse won type thing. So he's a very strong horse is what I'm trying to say. Okay. So if you found him in a race. Where there's brutal tempo, you could really entertain him.
Speaker 2It's interesting you say that because I'm just looking at his numbers and in his really slow run races, he's gone no good. And then he ran in a plus 19 at Kensington first half and won. And then that race he won at Rose Hill last half of 900 ran plus 10 and he won.
Speaker 3Yeah, there you go. Okay. I didn't know that, but he's had sort of that winter campaign. Well, it wasn't necessarily Queensland. He was up and running. So he's going to be running. He's going to be running. He's going to be one of these really rare Waller horses that's going to have miles in his legs. He's very best number is still going to be off the top three or four here. But if you found him wide in a Spendigo Cup or something really left field where you just thought, hey, this is a proper staying race, battle of the fittest, don't leave this horse out because he has got some good numbers in that regard.
Speaker 2Yeah. Interesting. They must be trying to find a little sneaky cup along the way to try to qualify for the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 3Yeah. And I don't know about you, Dean, but I find Melbourne a more chance to have the real fast run races than Sydney. Maybe that's field size. So I'd probably be more interested in him down in Melbourne. So yeah, he might be that one that wins you a quaddie one day.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah. Point of law is one who's reasonably in the markets. Purchased by Kieran Ma Only had four starts He's that Northern Hemisphere Three year old that we know They've obviously won a couple of A couple of Melbourne Cups So there's always a lot of intrigue In these Northern Hemisphere Three year olds What he's done What can you tell us about Point of Law
Speaker 3He was owned by the King I don't know whether they still own him or not I made the inquiry on him Because I think he is the type that On his four career runs so far Three of them have been excellent It's just such a huge ask Given that this is the horse's really first prep To come to Australia To win a Caulfield Cup But if there's going to be
Speaker 2I reckon he will go straight to the Melbourne Cup That's what I believe is happening Right, okay So He ran fourth in that Queen's Vars over 2800 That's a race Hartnell won Before it ran third in the Melbourne Cup A couple of years later He won a Bahrain Trophy over 2600 But also Hartnell won So that's the only line-up I can give you On the races he's been in
Speaker 3Yeah, so the Ascot run On my figures Was his worst career run It wasn't much of a race His best run was at Newmarket Now Newmarket's a real I don't know Running up the side of Ayers Rock The last 150 metres So he's another one That's really, really strong But he actually ran a Really good sectional there So John Gosden trained him He's one of those elite Stain trainers over there He gets his horses really fit To be fair He's carried the lower weights And he'll get that out here But I don't want Really probably want to Fall into him in a Melbourne Cup But If he Ran in a Caulfield Cup He would be A top four chance
Speaker 2Yeah, okay I But I I haven't Actually Actually, no Actually, they might be running In the Caulfield Cups Actually, I think they are Are they? I've got that wrong This is Kieran This is by Frankel He's out of a deep impact mare Yeah A good Japanese star So The Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds I think there's only been Three run in the Caulfield Cup Constantinople Was in Unlucky fourth But he was hopeless
Speaker 3Constantinople He was a real Whacker Yeah, well
Speaker 2He was unlucky And he got beat One and a half lengths And he had Valiant King Sixth and I think you had Sayad Ali Sadadi run as well
Speaker 3Yeah, well He cooked He cooked himself Before the race Okay So So
Speaker 2Interesting Yeah So Including How does he It seems on official ratings He's a bit below You know Your rekindling And your cross counters Yep But you know Is he Is he good enough In the Caulfield Cup
Speaker 3So your rekindling Especially your cross counters They probably had three lengths on him Yeah But I would argue These races aren't as good As what They were back then Yeah But What I like about him
Speaker 2What seems to have happened Over time As you had your rekindling Cross counters Is that They really punished Those Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds In the weights Yeah, that's true Yeah You know And so You had a couple That came over And they started giving him Like 54, 55 kgs Yep And you know I think one of them Ran fourth as favourites And they were sort of Around the mark But it was just too much weight For his Northern Hemisphere Three-year-olds What I What does interest me About this one Is you know They've actually got in With 51 Have they Yeah Maybe beaten the handicap For a little bit
Speaker 3Like I said That's the The big question Mark Can a horse In his first prep Travel the other side Of the country And fifth up Win a Caulfield Cup His last run says yes But his runs prior to that Were good But I think it'll be He's a You know We touched on it before He's maybe An autumn horse More so than anything
Speaker 2Yeah I mean they usually need a run Particularly when they Obviously go To an Aussie trainer But Kieran Ma Has trained him off a plane And won Fox plates and things Hasn't he So Yeah Someone can do it He can probably do it Yeah See what I see Is not with us anymore So we'll skip over here Unfortunately Shot clips Qualified For the Melbourne Cup By winning Last start In the Open Another one of those Kieran Ma horses You know Is he Is she one of those That could You know Buy shocking And owned by The Ewells family Who Owned shocking And won a Melbourne Cup Is she any Kind of Rough hope
Speaker 3I mean Maybe for that A heart transplant And some lungs But yeah Not for me
Speaker 2Not for you They ran Plus 19 Plus 20 The first half And at Hopham And I mean They came home Minus 15 And they weren't Home as you expect But No No Not one of those That could Have a little place
Speaker 3No I don't think so It's I've got it Way too far away But You know Respect it comes out Of a really fast run race That type of thing So maybe that makes it A mini valley type horse But I think that sort of Just shows You know It started $10 In a benchmark 84 Two runs prior to The group 3 win The other day It's just We probably don't have much In that Third tier at the moment So They're a bit up for grabs
Speaker 2Yeah Fair enough Small fry Six year old gouting From Joseph O'Brien Ran second Beating three quarters of length By Hopewell Rock Over 2800 That was a race That Bauer ran second in Before finishing second In a Melbourne Cup Won a 3200 At York Was sixth behind Kislyer and Defiantly In the Ascot Stakes What How does small fry
Speaker 3Shape up The Goodwood run was Really good And then It's run the other day Beating Mountain Road It rated really good Got beat In that Kislyer Defiantly race At Ascot That was a slow run race As most 4000 metre races are And The race was dominated Up over the top On speed But the form Out of it Has turned out To be really really strong So I don't give it Any chance In a Caulfield Cup Or a Melbourne Cup But Again If you found it In a Pakenham Cup Or something like that You could You could have a look at him Because his figures Are good enough To win a Pakenham Cup
Speaker 2It looks like He has to win a race So it looks like He'll be in a Geelong Cup Or a Moonee Valley Cup Could he Yeah A bit of a push Yeah A bit of a push
Speaker 3I'd want The tier below What we generally get In a Geelong Cup Okay Yeah So you are
Speaker 2Looks outclassed Yeah
Speaker 3It's Doing its best Up there But it beats The same couple of horses In Sydney And Yeah Yeah No
Speaker 2Nothing Park I don't think Because I don't think Duran's second Our Zep Classic Start to hurry curry So it's not Going to be good enough Not even in a listed race For me Suntour I can't imagine We'll be going there No James You know Scraping the bottom Of the bell now Yeah I haven't seen him Pop up much He He just ran In the JRA Off a 300 day break So he won't be ready One of the best Staying trainers In the country But He does some
Speaker 3Weird things But
Speaker 2He won the Jalan Cup Last year And then And then ran Fifth in Melbourne Cup So Yeah Handy horse But it's just He had 327 days So whether he's Going to be fit enough Is the question
Speaker 3Yeah He just won't have The miles in his legs So he's got none
Speaker 2Yeah Travolta No To them Valiant King He So they had that Big spike win Last year In the Bart Cummings And then ran third In the Caulfield Cup Ran down the track In the Melbourne Cup And he has not Done much since
Speaker 3No He's got flat tyres All four of them At the moment He's gone terrible
Speaker 2Yeah Alright Now we get to Defiantly I think he is the Favourite For the Melbourne Cup At the moment He's obviously One of yours He won that Ascot States Over 4100 He's won a Goodwood Over 4100 By three lengths But then I think The run that really Stood out was You know Winning that Pre-Kergolay At Dover Over 3000 Won by five and a half lengths That's a race Where we've seen American Win a Melbourne Cup Out of Dunedin Win a Melbourne Cup Out of Protectionist Win a Melbourne Cup Out of Your horse Red Cadeau And Marmello Both ran second Out of it That's always Been a good Race for The Cups And And he won it Very very convincingly
Speaker 3Yeah Let me just Say we didn't Pay a lot of money For him this time Last year And he was I think he was Still a maiden Or he might have Won a He'd won a maiden He was only class One horse Didn't pay much Money for him But I saw A couple of things There that I knew He would stay And it was always The hope that we Get somewhere like this Yeah He's actually A brother to Buckaroo And Middle Earth So he's got A big old Fat pedigree Next to him
Speaker 2I remember you saying that blinker horses, has he had blinkers on yet?
Speaker 3hundred percent so yeah um first two runs of the year no blinkers and just prep fitness runs yeah goes to ask scott like i said that was a really really deep form race yeah but it was a four thousand meter race and honestly they count for nothing in australia and he led he led yep uh and he led at no tempo yeah um and it was just a stable mate picked him um his next run at goodwood another another four thousand meter race yeah um again they just sat off him um he's got no change of speed this horse right he's got literally none he's just but if it was six thousand meters you won't get past him yeah um the kergalei had going into the race the kergalei had two let me just check
Speaker 2um there are only five runners in that kergalei but he did it easy it
Speaker 3had two chances it had sent santorini star and double major um and they sat off him our our plan was to get going from the thousand put a margin on him and hope he could run on and run third um santorini star basically found that found the track not to her liking all she did was wanted to lay in okay and double major needed a bit more of a um he'd only ever done anything in slow run races so we we deliberately ran them along hoping to find the the weakness in him so what i'm saying there is he got his birthday and christmas and everything all together um as an as an owner i'm cheering so hard for my owners yeah it's not funny but he's actually done his job and yes the to be brutally honest i don't give him much hope at all now he's the current favorite and yeah i just the only way is he better on stuff
Speaker 2like that that that you know that davil when was on a soft track and i mean he visually was impressive yep uh could he be could he be you know better just on a wet track he needs a
Speaker 3pride of jenny type horse in the race to just run the legs off them right um i don't think he'll be fast enough to lead in the melbourne car and you're dealing with a horse that'll run 12 20 every furlong from the start to the end of the race so you're going to need a knock them down drag them out type race and it generally as a rule don't get that in a melbourne cup as a rule like they just don't keep building building and just keep going faster and faster so i uh i've seen some supposed good form guys come out and say oh he's the clear one to beat in a melbourne carport i gotta admit i just don't see it i i want to be wrong but everything on the stuff that i do says he'll be too slow um he'll run top 10 just simply because of he stays yeah but if if and when he gets crossed in a melbourne cup and then they pull up anchor for 15 or 1600 meters and then sprint he just won't have the toe to go with them and i'm not convinced he'll have the toe to lead so from a melbourne cup point of view um look it's you know i've got some owners in horses they've only ever had one melbourne cup runner and they still talk about it and the horse run tenths you know so yeah it's such a it's a we had it
Speaker 2last year with war down it was just a thrill to be there on the day and enjoy the day yes but
Speaker 3you know this is we're here today to talk about can the horse win or not and i honestly don't give him hardly any hope um just because he needs the race shape and i just don't see how that eventually will work out you know like um what
Speaker 2about like what about that year twilight payment one and it just kind of you know led and just kept grinding away like he's a bit different to toilet payment it was an eight year old is yeah that is there anything like that
Speaker 3or if they gave him the lead but as you know now that everyone gets a prize which i hate but now that everyone gets a prize in the melbourne cup you're going to have horses in the race with no weight and you know what connection is going to say we've got no weight we're a roughy we've got nothing to lose let's roll forward and we'll just roll and you know put something into the race but that means we get crossed so as soon as we get crossed um and at some stage australian riders are all controlling the race they all want to sit up they want to want to take a breather and give their horse which is rightly so but the only way this bike features is if you get two or three that freaking bolt and they just completely overdo it and then they just don't want to give it to you they don't want to give it to you and it's a it's a battle of toughness um yeah it's i just really don't see that ratio eventuating so um as much as i'm cheering for him and for our owners it's i i have him marked a lot lot lot lot longer price wow yeah wow
Speaker 2all right well so
Speaker 3yeah
Speaker 2great but um if you like him i i don't know oh man i i like what you like i've learned my lesson now yeah i'll be it for me but you're right
Speaker 3like visually he was amazing but you gotta remember center and he started hated the condition she just laid in the whole way um and on those testing conditions as you know you know um when they're beaten they don't knock them around um but she come into that race group one place multiple group two winner she had proper form double majored one last two years from memory and as a group one multiple group one winner he beat proper horses
Speaker 2there but yeah so i mean but how on your ratings if you were saying you know like obviously we've had america and dunedin protectionist red cadeau and marmello all well even that's not even when like marmello ran second red could i ran fifth and juna then ran ninth from this race so they didn't even win some
Speaker 3of them yeah but look i i hated prestage nocturne last year and since the melbourne cup over there he's been getting beat enlisted races too so there's a the the real quality stayers over there haven't been running in these races they're they're heading toward arcs and different things and it's that kerguel is slightly the wrong time of year given the whole world breeding operation at the moment they're just breeding less and less stayers so therefore the quality world was dropping and there's therefore there's fewer of them um he's a he's as tough a horse to get past as there will be but if you've got any change up a speed um you know he's just he's just going to be a sitting shot unfortunately
Speaker 2okay which is very interesting uh zakuma won the andrew ramsden to qualify um they don't seem to usually have a great record coming to the melbourne cup but he ran well in the naturalism and he's been set for the one race uh is he tracking along okay
Speaker 3i think that's as kind as i can be so
Speaker 2believe him yep yeah 15 15 chance so that's pretty short i
Speaker 3gotta say that that horse's sire was one of the most exciting turner foot horses you've ever seen in your life credit house gg was a good seller but um a good good racehorse unfortunately hasn't really thrown anything yeah
Speaker 2all right another joseph o'brien horse is in the market for the melbourne cup to some degree uh what price is this you know 26 to 34 he he won a group tour over a thousand meters in the race prince of aaron ran third in um he ran fourth to jan bruegel over 2700 in the race mount athos won and then ran third in the melbourne cup he ran fifth in the hardwick fine g roulette which is i mean he's a good horse yeah buddy ran second in that race uh over 2800 over group two in a race that marmello won around second in the melbourne cup and then ran second in the kilton and stakes over 2400 livers down and tiger moth won that race around second in the old cup so he has the most runs of any horse i think from my simple profiling that are races that melbourne cup winners and place get his you know running and he's run well and then how does he sort of line
Speaker 3up from yeah um if i just saw he's got 57 and a half he'd add 55 you'd you'd be wanting to back him heavily each way in a melbourne cup uh he's a real stain type of horse he doesn't quite have the quality of some of those previous sources that you've mentioned but i don't think you're going to need to have that quality and he's a genuine top four or five chance this far out okay yep he's um he's a really as you touched on his ratings are really consistent um he's probably a second tier level for me but um there's not too many in the first tier so you've sort of got to have to elevate a few of them and
Speaker 2yeah and i mean he's in the race he doesn't have to do anything you know joseph can compare him how he wants um which has to be a positive
Speaker 3and he's he's a bit um not red card but red cadeau um he's a bit red cadeau-ish he's been in work yeah basically stays in work the whole time and we saw red cadeau over there he had limited or average form over there but it was his fitness and his toughness when he got to australia and he's a bit of a similar horse this
Speaker 2horse yeah good that sounded like a good good profile for a couple yep stinger glass definitely interested in your thoughts here you uh you know i love the japanese horses as a rule um but you were very on the mark with warp speed when he got beat a nose and forgave his quadrilateral cut run this horse won over 3400 at group three level he was beaten 13th in the uh upper azuku kinon over 2200 and then 11th in the guru kinon over 2500 um i'm not sure if he's in great form this horse i did win a 3400 two starts ago but uh how does stinger glass rate compared to i guess warp speed and then some of those you know other japanese horses
Speaker 3that have done well yeah warp speed was always the second tier compared to the previous ones i mean you have backed and done well with previously but um and this guy's probably on that third tier um yeah like the rest of the world they've gone away from proper two mile horses um and they're breeding more mile or 2000 horses so right um i probably want to be with him then some of them but um he he doesn't deserve the i'm a japanese horse so i have to include category just yet um yeah
Speaker 2it's hard to prep too like he ran around melbourne cup day last year three months spell one over 3400 three months spell uh got beat 16 lengths and then it's going to be you know four months into the melbourne
Speaker 3cup yeah um some of their trainers over there five months actually yeah some of their trainers over there are a bit different um but this guy's quite okay um but yeah look just he's effectively going to have two runs to his name going into a melbourne car in 12 months yeah that that's a scary thing he um he didn't rate that well in the february win the group three okay um the run that made me interested was way back in 24 and that's too far away so yeah i think he's the the japanese horse that gets a little bit of the mug money but yeah
Speaker 2he's 15 at the moment
Speaker 3yeah right yeah well that's way too
Speaker 2short yeah yeah uh trust your instinct this is another another joseph o'brien runner he he won the current cup over 2800 and el rifa ran that was a race rekindling one in 2017 and twilight payment won in 2020 before winning melbourne cups and he ran four been four and a half lengths by scandinavia and the irish saint ledger group won over 2800 and that was a race that twilight payment and vinnie rowe came out of to run well in melbourne cups um yeah where does where does trust your
Speaker 3instinct uh shape up um all you got to do is have a double one dark scene to trust your instinct and you get a big collect so he's clearly the one to beat clearly wow best by best by far um he's gonna bring very elegant type you know that weight for age group one type rating into a handicap um i'm a bit surprised he's got less weight than sons and lovers but um he he's got a really really good turn of foot he looks more of an australian type horse okay um he's already run 28 hundred so you're just going to take the punt that he's going to handle a little bit extra even though he's got churchill um but he's a very very very good horse and he'll run top three for
Speaker 2sure yeah wow yeah he's
Speaker 3he's a good strong
Speaker 2push for trust your instinct outstanding yeah pretty two shoes he uh ran second in this race last year um she ran second in a group three over 2800 she won over 2800 at group two level at goodwood um so she seems to be in okay form uh again ahead of this day she did run last at leopardstown last start uh not sure what happened there um what do you think about goody two shoes again this year yeah
Speaker 3look if you go off her august run where she beat that santorini star uh you would say well okay she's going better than she she was this time last year yeah it looked like it yeah and then i just don't know that arabian crown form is elite like proper elite and we saw sons and lovers run second there in the same race um yeah look there was a few in the market that you would have questioned but um they ran a really high rating in that race but how do you back her as an older man now having to travel again after such a terrible run that last start so i don't know what i want to do there i'll i don't think she she she doesn't have the ratings of a trust your instinct um or two or three of them but okay she obviously she pretty much coming out to be the freaking pacemaker last year and she stuck on and obviously run second so um is she a red cadet where she just grows another leg when she gets here i'm not sure i just think she's last year she was very exceptionally fit and you know got the right run and just kept whacking where you know you saw um michael just get a horrendous ride yeah there's no luck yeah and she can put in
Speaker 2a bad one i'm just looking for a form and like she can she can just put in a bad one she won her eight lengths and got beat 12 lengths next start she's been beaten 26 lengths some of these are chases to be fair yeah yep but then you know she got beat 17 and a half lengths first up then got beat a link on a half next start then one without after and got bit nine lengths and maybe she just mixes her form i guess you have to think that he you know joseph wouldn't bring her if there was a problem no but
Speaker 3it's the same connections as trust your instinct as well um same same owner right and i would dare say um it's probably an easy sell for the bloke we'll bring we're bringing the bring them both um and
Speaker 2yeah all right uh james j braddock this is a horse that's had a lot of media publicity he's probably second favorite behind divinely um at the moment uh again he's that northern hemisphere three-year-old fifth over 2000 at group three level in a race rekindling one um third you know epsom derby which seems pretty strong form um but then six in the irish derby over 2400 irish moth ran second in that six feet nearly four lengths in that kiltinen that we've sort of spoken about seems like there were a few of them and that are in this cup that were in that race yep uh yeah he's obviously well in the market so so what do you think about james j braddock overall and compared to say point of law
Speaker 3i'll point a lawyer left this he's um he they paid as they all do they paid a ton of money for him yeah um but he he went to pieces in one of his races and obviously they've gilded him after that but you've got to remember the epsom derby form is sorry the times out of the epsom derby were legless terrible absolutely terrible yeah um his leopardstown win was was okay um wasn't hopeless hopeless but yeah he was nine to one there and it was one of those races where he sort of got there and mugged the the main chances didn't have things to go their way or underperform um i was really surprised he finished so close to arabian crown there the other day um but in terms of if you're just going off for he he's got about five to six lengths defined to beat trust your instinct um and i think obviously sons and lovers beat him home the other day as well uh he's not a winning chance not a
Speaker 2chance yeah wow yeah oh another pot for a one right in four van um we haven't had a huge amount of luck with this horse he's run some really good races we've won you know a couple of sky highs with him and he was very stiff in a tank rid that he should have won and he was pretty stiff in a metropolitan that he should have won and then he's ridden upside down probably a couple of times on hot speeds which didn't suit him um again ran third in the tank rid third in the doom and cups the last last you know last two runs have been placings at group one level unfortunately he was scratched by the vets in the q22 in a race that personally i thought he would have won easy um and he's just been a bit slow to come up with prep hasn't he so we actually haven't seen him and we're hoping to see him this saturday in the
Speaker 3might and power yeah um the positive that he's got he's going to have had that brisbane sort of campaign as far as he's been kept in work and whatnot yeah his two trials have been terrible um they thought there was a little bit of arthritis so they're giving him an update on what he's going to get so that's not a worry um yeah he's probably not a winning chance but he's a you know he was actually quite good in this race last year when he ran six in the melbourne cup um yeah he
Speaker 2ran home really strongly yeah i was cheering hard for him from you know he settled about 15th and he ran past all his horses from 12th to finish sixth and then i looked at the prize money you get the same amount for six for 12th yeah yeah i just i i personally feel like this horse with his small his short stride length like i just would love to see him on a really wet track yeah yeah i mean he got a wet the wettest record he got it was in that tanker that he should have won um yes second second run for us um and he just and he would have got it in that q22 and had that slow speed next to all supremacy and i think he would have beaten him yep i just i would love to just you know get him on a really wet track and let him show you know his best yeah um
Speaker 3look he has got a turn of thought so that's one positive that we're going to have going into the races but um yeah i think he's best is behind him personally and we're just you're going to be hopeful and we're going to have to talk before the melbourne cup and see what the race shape is going to be like because if we could envisage a green moon type year where they just walk and sprint home the last 400 well he'll be scary if it's a knock him down and drag him out type race well he's probably none but yeah um
Speaker 2yeah yeah fair enough uh just quickly another way to to get the best odds an odds comparison service called smart odds you know third party but you get real time price updates live fluctuation graphs fully customizable layouts across horse greyhound and harness racing for nearly 100 bookies odds comparison customizable layouts fluctuation graphs there are form guys historical data the features i really love there's there's a standard black book you can bookmark your runners other jockeys trainers horses tracks anything you like and get an email when they're running but what i really like is that you can bookmark your runners other jockeys trainers horses tracks anything you like and get an email when they're running but what i really like is that you can bookmark your runners other jockeys trainers horses tracks anything you like and get an email when they're running but what i really like is the price alert is the price alert is the price alert watch list and basically what you do is you can watch list and basically what you do is you can watch list and basically what you do is you can put your horse in there like a black book put your horse in there like a black book put your horse in there like a black book and it will email you as soon as the and it will email you as soon as the and it will email you as soon as the bookies start to put odds up for that bookies start to put odds up for that bookies start to put odds up for that runner so if there's a horse you're runner so if there's a horse you're runner so if there's a horse you're waiting for waiting for waiting for you want to get the absolute top odds it you want to get the absolute top odds it will email you the moment that the will email you the moment that the will email you the moment that the bookies are putting prices up for that bookies are putting prices up for that bookies are putting prices up for that horse which is a really cool feature horse which is a really cool feature horse which 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the best prices that you possibly can you can set the price watch list get ai you can set the price watch list get ai you can set the price watch list get ai odds flux odds flux odds flux and change all your grid settings it's and change all your grid settings it's and change all your grid settings it's all fully customizable all fully customizable all fully customizable your layout's all fully customizable your layout's all fully customizable they've also got sports so obviously not they've also got sports so obviously not they've also got sports so obviously not a heap of sports on at the moment but a heap of sports on at the moment but a heap of sports on at the moment but you know when there's the afl and the you know when there's the afl and the you know when there's the afl and the nrl and cricket and that sort of thing nrl and cricket and that sort of thing nrl and cricket and that sort of thing there's plenty of odds available for there's plenty of odds available for there's plenty of odds available for those obviously at the moment there's those obviously at the moment there's those obviously at the moment there's not a heap of prices available for some not a heap of prices available for some not a heap of prices available for some of these american sports we can see of these american sports we can see of these american sports we can see the caulfield cup or maybe the melbourne cup the caulfield cup or maybe the melbourne cup the caulfield cup or maybe the melbourne cup even again something that no one else has but again something that no one else has but again something that no one else has but you know the prices for the melbourne cup you know the prices for the melbourne cup you know the prices for the melbourne cup for every single runner across every for every single runner across every for every single runner across every single bookie you can see the single bookie you can see the single bookie you can see the discrepancies in the prices as well discrepancies in the prices as well discrepancies in the prices as well eleven dollars some are often thirteen eleven dollars some are often thirteen eleven dollars some are often fifteen dollars from fifteen dollars so you can dollars from fifteen dollars so you can dollars from fifteen dollars so you can really see the discrepancy you know in really see the discrepancy you know in really see the discrepancy you know in any sort of any sort of any sort of runner of interest there that you might runner of interest there that you might runner of interest there that you might have james j braddock between eleven and have james j braddock between eleven and have james j braddock between eleven and thirteen dollars thirteen dollars thirteen dollars uh some runners here between nineteen uh some runners here between nineteen uh some runners here between nineteen dollars and thirty four dollars so dollars and thirty four dollars so dollars and thirty four dollars so obviously you want to be getting obviously you want to be getting dollars and thirty four dollars so obviously you want to be getting the best the best prices that the best the best prices that the best the best prices that you can and you can and you can and again with sports similar again with sports similar again with sports similar but we have a look you can have all the but we have a look you can have all the but we have a look you can have all the bookies there betting on the brown low bookies there betting on the brown low bookies there betting on the brown low for next year for next year for next year huge range of bookies every bookie that huge range of bookies every bookie that huge range of bookies every bookie that has a price at the moment has a price at the moment has a price at the moment has odds showing here and obviously as has odds showing here and obviously as has odds showing here and obviously as more bookies put markets up more bookies put markets up more bookies put markets up uh there'll be more prices available uh there'll be more prices available uh there'll be more prices available but you can but you can but you can again just make sure you're getting the again just make sure you're getting the again just make sure you're getting the best price that you can on any uh best price that you can on any uh best price that you can on any uh possible event across horse racing possible event across horse racing possible event across horse racing sports and and futures markets sports and and futures markets sports and and futures markets strictly business she won the oaks and strictly business she won the oaks and strictly business she won the oaks and they've got very much a one-track mind they've got very much a one-track mind they've got very much a one-track mind towards the mobile cup from uh what i towards the mobile cup from uh what i towards the mobile cup from uh what i understand she did win the oaks by three understand she did win the oaks by three understand she did win the oaks by three and a half lengths and she actually ran and a half lengths and she actually ran and a half lengths and she actually ran time in that race like and six and a time in that race like and six and a time in that race like and six and a half links but half links but half links but uh above standard for the first half and uh above standard for the first half and uh above standard for the first half and we're sort of flat for the second half we're sort of flat for the second half we're sort of flat for the second half but it was plus 6.7 overall but it was plus 6.7 overall
Speaker 3but it was plus 6.7 overall and that was after running eight days and that was after running eight days and that was after running eight days prior so as we touch on a lot of the prior so as we touch on a lot of the prior so as we touch on a lot of the staying races they won by the fittest staying races they won by the fittest staying races they won by the fittest horses and horses and horses and i think she had her chance there i see i think she had her chance there i see i think she had her chance there i see there's 48 runners come out of that oaks there's 48 runners come out of that oaks there's 48 runners come out of that oaks for only two individual winners for only two individual winners for only two individual winners yeah at metro level so there's probably yeah at metro level so there's probably yeah at metro level so there's probably not enough form there not enough form there not enough form there yeah and look again they threw the yeah and look again they threw the yeah and look again they threw the kitchen sink at her at a seven day back kitchen sink at her at a seven day back kitchen sink at her at a seven day back up into up into up into adelaide yeah and she runs yeah obviously adelaide yeah and she runs yeah obviously adelaide yeah and she runs yeah obviously she ran second she's doing her best but she ran second she's doing her best but she ran second she's doing her best but i just honestly i've got you know i just honestly i've got you know i just honestly i've got you know horses like this horses like this horses like this 10 and 12 lengths off what's going to be 10 and 12 lengths off what's going to be 10 and 12 lengths off what's going to be required to required to required to to do
Speaker 2something uh fair
Speaker 3enough at least
Speaker 2to do something uh fair enough at least to do something uh fair enough at least hopewell rock another importer who's in hopewell rock another importer who's in hopewell rock another importer who's in the market for the melbourne cup uh the market for the melbourne cup uh the market for the melbourne cup uh beat small fry by three goes length at beat small fry by three goes length at beat small fry by three goes length at goodwood over 2800 that was a race bow goodwood over 2800 that was a race bow goodwood over 2800 that was a race bow around second and then around second and then around second and then uh was beaten ahead in the ebor um uh was beaten ahead in the ebor um uh was beaten ahead in the ebor um that's a race that purple moon and that's a race that purple moon and that's a race that purple moon and heartbreak city heartbreak city heartbreak city and prince of aaron have all come out of and prince of aaron have all come out of and prince of aaron have all come out of and run well in melbourne cups and run well in melbourne cups and run well in melbourne cups um how does hopewell rock shape up
Speaker 3um how does hopewell rock shape up um how does hopewell rock shape up important um he doesn't like sorry he's important um he doesn't like sorry he's important um he doesn't like sorry he's not qualified for anything not qualified for anything not qualified for anything so he would have to do it here i'd be so he would have to do it here i'd be so he would have to do it here i'd be more interested in him in a geelong car more interested in him in a geelong car more interested in him in a geelong car um okay if if you see him show up there um okay if if you see him show up there um okay if if you see him show up there or mini valley or mini valley or mini valley he'll be good um his last two he'll be good um his last two he'll be good um his last two races rate really really well races rate really really well
Speaker 2races rate really really well and from what i can see on the and from what i can see on the and from what i can see on the elimination order he's 29th elimination order he's 29th elimination order he's 29th and yeah he's not
Speaker 3asked the ballot and yeah he's not asked the ballot and yeah he's not asked the ballot oh i'll tell you tell you what sorry oh i'll tell you tell you what sorry
Speaker 2oh i'll tell you tell you what sorry they introduced and yeah they won at
Speaker 3they introduced and yeah they won at they introduced and yeah they won at goodwood so they introduced a race this goodwood so they introduced a race this goodwood so they introduced a race this year at goodwood france and year at goodwood france and year at goodwood france and ireland where it was a win in your ring ireland where it was a win in your ring ireland where it was a win in your ring because they were worried about the because they were worried about the because they were worried about the numbers and numbers and numbers and the lack of overseas horses so that was the lack of overseas horses so that was the lack of overseas horses so that was a win in your in race a win in your in race a win in your in race um um um what else can we say he's probably going what else can we say he's probably going what else can we say he's probably going to have the miles to have the miles to have the miles george bowie's a real young cocky george bowie's a real young cocky george bowie's a real young cocky english trainer um english trainer um english trainer um gets them exceptionally fit more gets them exceptionally fit more gets them exceptionally fit more probably better known for the sprinter probably better known for the sprinter probably better known for the sprinter milers and stayers milers and stayers milers and stayers um but um um but um um he's not a bad horse this horse and he's not a bad horse this horse and he'll be a genuine top sort of eight he'll be a genuine top sort of eight he'll be a genuine top sort of eight hope in a melbourne cup he's got he's hope in a melbourne cup he's got he's hope in a melbourne cup he's got he's probably got probably got probably got he'd be five or six lengths off of trust he'd be five or six lengths off of trust he'd be five or six lengths off of trust your instinct your instinct your instinct off the top of my head um off the top of my head um off the top of my head um so but so but so but i'd rather back him than a lot of them i'd rather back him than a lot of them i'd rather back him than a lot of them in the rubs okay in the rubs okay
Speaker 2in the rubs okay yeah uh akita sushi ran third in a yeah uh akita sushi ran third in a yeah uh akita sushi ran third in a melbourne cup a couple of years ago he's melbourne cup a couple of years ago he's melbourne cup a couple of years ago he's another that's only had four runs since another that's only had four runs since another that's only had four runs since uh around second last last start
Speaker 3uh around second last last start uh around second last last start yeah he he's obviously a construction yeah he he's obviously a construction yeah he he's obviously a construction site um site um site um again we talk about horses coming out of again we talk about horses coming out of again we talk about horses coming out of the melbourne cup and basically hasn't the melbourne cup and basically hasn't the melbourne cup and basically hasn't ran a race since then either so ran a race since then either so ran a race since then either so yeah not for me future history nine
Speaker 2yeah not for me future history nine yeah not for me future history nine year old year old year old none uh the budgie smuggler had his none uh the budgie smuggler had his none uh the budgie smuggler had his chance in the metro and couldn't chance in the metro and couldn't chance in the metro and couldn't couldn't do anything yeah had a back and couldn't do anything yeah had a back and couldn't do anything yeah had a back and actually ran surprisingly well i actually ran surprisingly well i actually ran surprisingly well i thought for him in the metro um
Speaker 3thought for him in the metro um thought for him in the metro um i reckon you've got a little share in i reckon you've got a little share in this or you always mention this horse
Speaker 2this or you always mention this horse this or you always mention this horse uh no no no no no it's not actually been uh no no no no no no it's not actually been uh no no no no no no no it's not actually been one of mine one of mine one of mine it just actually you know if i didn't it just actually you know if i didn't it just actually you know if i didn't know any of the horses and i just know any of the horses and i just know any of the horses and i just watched the replay of the metro he was watched the replay of the metro he was watched the replay of the metro he was probably the best run yeah um
Speaker 3probably the best run yeah um probably the best run yeah um he's had a couple of guys at this race he's had a couple of guys at this race
Speaker 2he's had a couple of guys at this race he hasn't he hasn't popped up yet so he hasn't he hasn't popped up yet so he hasn't he hasn't popped up yet so i'd be surprised to see him uh i'd be surprised to see him uh i'd be surprised to see him uh no yes surprised to see him too much no yes surprised to see him too much no yes surprised to see him too much yep that's nothing yep that's nothing yep that's nothing pounding is an interesting pounding is an interesting pounding is an interesting there um no sorry gelding there um no sorry gelding there um no sorry gelding just in the sense that was basically a just in the sense that was basically a just in the sense that was basically a marla for its old whole life marla for its old whole life marla for its old whole life until last year until last year until last year where they suddenly ran over 2400 where they suddenly ran over 2400 where they suddenly ran over 2400 mornington cut ran second round of mornington cut ran second round of mornington cut ran second round of andrew ramsden over 2800 ran second and andrew ramsden over 2800 ran second and andrew ramsden over 2800 ran second and uh uh uh second to asterisk uh second to second to asterisk uh second to second to asterisk uh second to asterix and the talisman ran second to asterix and the talisman ran second to asterix and the talisman ran second to royal supremacy in the q22 royal supremacy in the q22 royal supremacy in the q22 and then in the field and settled last and then in the field and settled last and then in the field and settled last and ran third the pride of jenny and ran third the pride of jenny and ran third the pride of jenny um yeah it just seems to um yeah it just seems to um yeah it just seems to have all of a sudden uh an exceed and have all of a sudden uh an exceed and have all of a sudden uh an exceed and excel gelding at excel gelding at excel gelding at seven and eight years old has decided to seven and eight years old has decided to seven and eight years old has decided to it can actually run a trip it can actually run a trip it can actually run a trip and actually has some consistent form and actually has some consistent form
Speaker 3and actually has some consistent form at least at least at least this thing might be the middle earth of this thing might be the middle earth of this thing might be the middle earth of this year's melbourne cup because it's this year's melbourne cup because it's this year's melbourne cup because it's going to have that fitness you know going to have that fitness you know going to have that fitness you know you look at it basically hasn't had a you look at it basically hasn't had a you look at it basically hasn't had a spell for a long time spell for a long time spell for a long time and it's had lots of runs in between and and it's had lots of runs in between and and it's had lots of runs in between and and running well so yeah it'll be and running well so yeah it'll be and running well so yeah it'll be rock hard fit
Speaker 2rock hard fit
Speaker 3rock hard fit yeah um but obviously geez when was its yeah um but obviously geez when was its yeah um but obviously geez when was its last win in saying that um its last win
Speaker 2last win in saying that um its last win last win in saying that um its last win was a sale cup and
Speaker 3October 2024. There you go. So, yeah. But, yeah, complete wide exotic. And the 101, it'll be James Braddock and those type of horses, I'm sure. Yeah, right.
Speaker 2Manzoor Blue is a Kiwi horse trained by Lisa Latter. What can you tell us about her?
Speaker 3Yeah, she trains okay. She trains a lot of stays, that trainer. Won the Wellington Cup. Yeah, the times were terrible, terrible.
Speaker 2All right, move on. Highland Bling. You haven't seen up to it?
Speaker 3No. Yeah, good on them. They've got a run of it. Yeah, I don't like it at all. Just gone terrible, too. Like, yeah, it's very best run. Yeah, did it run third in the Sydney Cup?
Speaker 2Yeah, right. Yeah, it ran third. Oh, Sydney Cup, yep.
Speaker 3Ah, that's that changing the guard race, yeah.
Speaker 2Yeah. Yeah. Hey, for Wolf, you know, he's been just one of those horses that's sort of come out of nowhere, won a maiden at Newcastle and then won a couple of sort of city races and won the Newcastle Gold Cup by two and a half length and ran second in the Metro last start. And they seem to still have, they seem to want to run in the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 3Yeah, look, I don't blame him. I don't give him any hope. I think the Newcastle race is terrible. I thought he had every possible yesterday. Like, the run opened up and couldn't go past. And basically, I thought it was dropping, it was slowing as it got further. So I don't even like this horse as a Melbourne Cup hope. And I don't even think it'll run the trip.
Speaker 2Yeah, OK. I'm skipping over some of these. There is a horse here, Klondike, that, you know, has only had three runs in Australia, but had a 483-day break before his Kingston Town run. So what can you tell us about his overseas form, though? Did one at Doval and yours?
Speaker 3Yeah. I'm sure he was a William Haggis horse. Yeah, he was a William Haggis horse. So started 6-1 against Trust Your Instinct two years ago and got, ran 5 of 10. He never really had anything to sort of say, "Hey, I'm a good horse." He was always going to be a qualified horse for the race. And I think maybe that's why the connections bought him. But he was never, ever going to be good enough.
Speaker 2All right. Well, look, I mean, there was a few others that just aren't going to get into the race. So that's a pretty comprehensive two-hour preview. So thank you so much, Luke, for your time. It sounds to me like, just looking at my notes, you know, I mean, Wine Dark Sea is your clear top pick in the corporate. Yeah. Yeah. And you gave little pushes, I think, for maybe Point of Law, Small Fry, Sons and Lovers. Eliana seemed to be your other pick. Wine Dark Sea and Eliana, you're two for the Caulfield Cup. Is there anything else?
Speaker 3Yeah. They would be the only two unless we got a left field sort of situation where all of a sudden Sir Delius showed up or something like that. Yeah. But we're all assuming they're going to. But clearly, yeah. Zeyran is the question mark, but if I'm going off his Australian form, he's got none. It's just that he's got two runs in Europe that says, "Wacky-do, you know, you're a good horse." Yeah. But on what they've done, I think you've got to go off his Australian form with Zeyran. And for mine, I'm not convinced there. So it's clearly, clearly Wine Dark Sea. And even if Zeyran produced his best Ascot run, he doesn't get near Wine Dark Sea. He's still two lengths off him. So he's the one that you definitely focus from a Caulfield Cup. And then Melbourne Cup, I think you definitely have to be with trust your instinct. He's a classy, wait for age, horse that's capable to run really, really big numbers. Yeah. And he's got a couple of assets with him, you know, turn of forward strength at top of him.
Speaker 2Yeah. So you just seem to have him clear on top and I don't know who we've got sort of second
Speaker 3and third behind him. It would be Sons and Lovers. Yep. But again, sort of, you know, we've all of a sudden found two horses right at the top of the weights, which traditionally hasn't always been successful, but maybe we talk again before Melbourne Cup and we'll see the final field. But I think if you're playing those exotics or the futures now, yeah, Wine Dark and Trust Your Instinct, they're the ones that you want going for really good figures and then as we get to a Melbourne Cup. We can maybe save on one or two others.
Speaker 2All right. And if anybody is interested in having a Melbourne Cup winner, like you've managed to deliver a couple of times, it's the best place to find the Australian Bloodstock website as a starting point.
Speaker 3Yeah. Do that. Or just give me a ring personally. Yeah. We'll have a chat. But there's some, there's some really good horses out there. We just, yeah, like I said, they can come from anywhere. Yeah. And I think. Yeah. I think this year is looking quite enticing in terms of punting wise, which is what we're all here with today about, but there's a couple of really good prices and a couple of real false favourites. Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2No. You've as always been brutally honest and you put a line through some horses that are right up in the market. So very, very interesting again, but thanks so much as always Luke, really appreciate your time and your insights and yeah, we'll try and make sure we have a chat before, before the Cup. So when we've got the final fields as well.
Speaker 3Yeah, definitely. And I must say, if anyone wants to be a winning punter, you couldn't recommend Dean high enough. He's done it for a number, a number of years and yeah, I know there's probably lots of casual listeners out there, but you want to get onto Dean. He's probably stood the test of time and a bit of data and a bit of feel for the game. Yeah. Get in and give him a go for six months and treat it like a business and I'm sure you'll end up on the right side of it.
Speaker 1Yeah. Thanks mate. Thank you very much. At Winning Edge Investments, our team of highly skilled expert analysts and full-time professional punters review the data, crunch the figures, assess the best betting opportunities and deliver them to your phone via our app and your email inbox in real time. So you profit go to www.winningedgeinvestments.com. Look at our membership options, make your choice and enter the promo code podcast to receive a special 25% discount on your first membership, just for listening. That's P-O-D-C-A-S-T in capital letters for a 25% ongoing discount on your first membership. Treat your betting like a business and invest intelligently with Winning Edge Investments.
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