May 22, 2026: China Trade Momentum Builds, Deere Settlement Moves Forward

Today on Agnew Staley, we start seeing some Chinese purchases and it'd be great to see really anything. If it's soybeans, the market's going to say, "Okay, well that's part of that 25 million bunch of tons that they've committed to for next year." But if they start buying things like corn and wheat and looking like, "Oh hey, they are going to buy that $17 billion worth of other stuff aside from soybeans," then things get really interesting and really spicy. Welcome back to the weekly edition of the Agnews Daily Show, and happy Memorial Day weekend. Happy Memorial Day weekend to you, Tutanner. Three-day weekend ahead. I guess somebody could listen on Memorial Day? That's true. We probably will because we're going to see some field work even with heavy rain and severe weather across parts of the Midwest this week as slow-moving fronts have pushed through the region. Flooding concerns remain in areas of Missouri while scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the weekend. Despite some localized storm risk, the overall pattern is helping recharge soil moisture and support early corn and sweeping development heading into late May. Additional rounds of scattered rainfall are expected later this week across much of the corn belts. But meanwhile, we've seen some cooler temperatures, and that's going to continue with periodic rainfall across portions of the Upper Midwest, which could slow planting progress if we've got any listeners still wrapping that up in some areas. Now, Tanner, you're one of them, it sounds like. Recent moisture has helped improve soil conditions and ease drought concerns through those areas as well, though isolated frost concerns were reported further north earlier this week. Conditions are expected to gradually warm heading into the weekend while scattered showers remain in the forecast into early next week. Not done with planting, huh? No, I forgot for our podcast listeners. I raised my hand when she said that, so I feel a little out of whack. You took my weather report from me, so I guess I'll do crop progress, corn and soybean planting continued to advance ahead of those normal paces across much of the Midwest. According to the latest USDA's crop progress report, corn planting across 18 major producing states reached 82 percent complete. That's ahead of the five-year average, which was at 76 percent, while soybean planting reached 67 percent, complete compared to 53 of the historical average. Iowa farmers continue to make strong progress with corn planting reaching 95 percent complete and soybeans at 80 percent planted. Corn and soybean emergence also remains ahead of normal schedule. Even though those cool temperatures and isolated frost concerns happened in part of the upper Midwest, it slowed a little of the emergence in some areas. Overall though, producers remain ahead of the typical planting pace in the 2026 growing season as we move forward. We'll be back now with more news after this week's tip with Cortep. Hi. I'm Jeff Moon with Cortep. I'm a Market Development Specialist. One of the tips I've got for you today is to make sure after your pre-application that you get out and scout those fields to find out which weeds you have before you develop your post-application has all the multiple modes of action you need to get to control. What China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion of additional U.S. agricultural products annually over the next three years following last week's meeting between Trump and Xi, the Trump Xi Summit in Beijing, analysts said that this deal could significantly boost U.S. exports of wheat, corn, sorghum, meat products, cotton, and timber while soybean purchases are also expected to increase later this year, in which we will be talking more about in this week's interview as it comes up. The analysts say that the agreement could provide additional export demand that will support U.S. grain markets at a time when farmers are closely watching new crop prices and global competition that's coming from Brazil. Markets will now be looking for confirmed soybean, corn, and sorghum purchases to see whether this deal will translate into anything meaningful and create that demand for the 2026 crop year. Certainly going to talk more about that in depth with Ted Syford later on, but as we turn our attention to some policy-related news this week, Senate Republicans remain divided over legislation that would allow year-round sales of E-15 fuel blends. After of course, the House passed the standalone nationwide consumer and fuel retailer Choice Act, that's a mouthful, late last week, in a 218-203 vote. The bill will allow fuel retailers to offer E-15 year-round by removing seasonal restrictions tied to smog concerns. Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, says expanding E-15 would help boost corn demand while also increasing fuel supplies and potentially lowering gas prices. That's certainly something folks this time of year are going to want to hear. As the Senate debate continues, lawmakers are now discussing possible revisions to the bill. Opponents of the current proposal, including Senate Majority Whip, John Barrasso, argue smaller refineries could face higher compliance costs under year-round E-15 sales, while supporters say revisions could help address those concerns without limiting ethanol access. Supporters say the changes could help address refinery concerns while still allowing expanded year-round E-15 sales to fuel blends. Senator John Hauvin says lawmakers are continuing to work toward potential compromises while some senators are also considering attaching the measure to the next farm bill, which is something they've tried to do and not with a lot of great success, Tanner. I don't know if that's the right answer, either, but we will report when we get more updates. The National Corn Growers Association and 12 other agricultural groups this week submitted comments to the U.S. trade representatives, urging Trump and his administration to reduce barriers to biotech products, including corn, as part of the efforts to expand the U.S. access to African markets. This request comes as the U.S. trade representatives seek input on modernizing and extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which is set to expire here, Delaney, just at the end of 2026. That is, unless Congress for News It. The NCGA says that updating this program just could help open long-term export opportunities for the U.S. corn and ethanol while pushing to ease restrictions on biotech corn-virus varieties used across most U.S. fields for pest and weed control. The group says strengthening that market access in Africa is key to maintaining global competitiveness with other export regions before they become more limited. So we'll be back with more Ag news after a short break. When it comes to your corn, you know a strong start means a strong finish. That's why you're up before dawn, finishing paperwork, repairing equipment, filling the tank and prepping the sprayer. All to give your corn the head start it needs. With Rezacore Rev Corn herbicide from Corteva Agro-science, you'll beat weeds off the starting line. See how full throttle weed control with Rezacore Rev will accelerate your start to the season at Corteva.us/Rezacore Rev. Well, the USDA's Farm Service Agency says producers and land owners have, through May 29th, to enroll their grassland conservation reserve program. The agency says the enrollment is expected to remain competitive. As the program nears, it's 27 million acre cap. The FSA administrator, Bill Beam, says that more than 26 million acres are already enrolled in CRP. With about 10 million in grassland CRP, producers who are interested in signing up are encouraged to contact their local FSA office ahead of this deadline. Well, more than 40 global food and agriculture companies have signed a new joint declaration earlier this week supporting regenerative agriculture efforts across the supply chain. Companies involved include ADM, Nestle, Nestle, Unilever, McCormick, Karlsburg, and Diagio. With the initiative focused on improving soil health, addressing climate change concerns, and strengthening long-term supply chain stability. The effort is being coordinated through the SAI platform, a global sustainability network that says collaboration across the food system will be critical as companies continue increasing sustainability goals. Karlsburg's sustainability executive, Simon Bowess, Hoffmeier, says the industry needs more alignment and cooperation rather than isolated efforts as regenerative agriculture continues gaining attention across global food production. Certainly a topic we report on a lot, but maybe not from the manufacturer or produce consumer chain side of things. The USDA restores whole milk in schools as they finalize their rule to implement the whole milk for Healthy Kids Act that allows schools to once again offer whole and 2% milk options in school meals. This is the first time in more than a decade. This law was signed earlier this year, but the newly finalized rule now gives the school districts the ability to begin updating menus and procurement plans ahead of this upcoming school years. That's big dairy news there. Agricultural Secretary Brooke Rollins says the update is aimed at expanding access to nutrient dense foods, while giving school districts more flexibility in their menu planning. Now for dairy producers, that change is expected to modestly support fluid milk demand in school nutrition programs, which serves nearly 30 million students nationwide. As schools adjust their menus in the next coming months, they will start to see a minor adjustment. Actually that 30 million students seemed less than what I would have expected. It's still a big number. It is. Well, as we take a look here at some pseudo rabies case updates Mexico and Canada this month have placed restrictions on select U.S. pork imports after pseudo rabies and antibodies [BLANK_AUDIO] detected in small swine herds in now Iowa and Texas alike. USDA officials say the cases are linked to feral hog exposure, marking the first confirmed commercial outbreak of pseudo-rabies in the United States since 2004. The restrictions apply to specific pork by-products and raw materials while edible pork products and most fresh pork shipments remain unaffected. Mexico and Canada are two of the top export markets for the US pork industry, making the restrictions a closely watched issue for the swine industry. Industry groups say demand from both countries is expected to continue, though the situation is raising renewed attention around biosecurity and disease prevention efforts across the US swine industry. I'm sure this is going to be one of the many topics coming up at the World's Pork X one just a few short weeks here in Des Moines, Iowa. Yeah, absolutely. I don't know how good these mics are, but did you hear my stomach grow? I did. A federal court this week has granted preliminary approval to John Deere's proposed $99 million settlement tied to right to repair lawsuits filed by farmers. The lawsuits alleged that Deere limited access to diagnostic software and repair tools, forcing producers to rely on authorized dealerships for equipment repairs. Farmers now have until the end of September to file objections before a final fairness hearing is scheduled for October. As part of the agreement, John Deere would provide farmers with access to digital tools needed to diagnose, maintain, and repair larger agricultural equipment over the next 10 years. The settlement comes as the right to repair debates continue expanding beyond agriculture, with Deere also now facing a separate lawsuit involving construction and forestry equipment. Plaintiffs in the case are making similar claims about restricted access to repair software and parts. Well, this week we're taking a closer look at the ag markets, like Delaney said, with market analyst Ted Cyford of Xaner AgHedge, specifically discussing China sales and what they could mean for the markets moving forward. So let's get into that interview right now. Well, it's been quite some time since we've chatted markets on the podcast more in-depth, so we're excited today to be joined by Ted Cyford of Xaner Group Ted. Thanks for joining us as always. Hey, thanks for having me, Delaney. It's a pleasure. So Ted, I think let's start, you know, here's today's conversation with just maybe a quick post-wise, do you look, because as we know, May is one of the most important last year reports, and certainly the markets have been reacting favorably since that report came out. Yeah, I mean, there's a whole lot going on right now, Delaney, and I mean, the report, it kind of feels like forever ago, even though it was just a little over a week ago. And you're right, it is a very important report from the standpoint that it's the first time we get to see new crop balance sheets on a WASD report. You know, we get an idea of what they're going to be on the ag outlook form balance sheets, but this is the first time that they're using, you know, planting intentions and trend line yield and everything like that. And while it's this report, that report isn't always a big market mover, it's a big deal for like balance sheet nerds like myself, because it gives us a baseline or a starting point of the numbers to work with for, you know, the marketing year that we're going to be messing with throughout the growing season and so on and so forth. It really the big surprise that was wheat and, you know, we knew, we knew based on the crop conditions ratings that the wheat, when a wheat crop was bad and it's actually even gotten worse, but the USA got very aggressive on lowering the yield and production, wheat or wheat production came in a lot below the trade expectations and therefore the domestic carryover came in well below expectations. And we met that with a limit update and wheat. However, we've not really been able to follow through there, which has been disappointing for wheat really. I think the thing about that though, Delaney is that when you look at the carryover that we have projected domestically, even though it's not as big of a number as what we were originally thinking, 900 million bushel plus or as big as it was for, you know, the marketing year. That's just about to end. You still have about a half a crop in reserves, right? Stocks to usage for wheat, even with the reduced carryover number, it's 41%. All right. I mean, you have 41% of a crop sitting on the sidelines. If you were talking about those sorts of numbers in corn or soybeans, oh man, I mean, you can't even imagine how low the price might have to go for something like that. So yeah, I think that's that's sort of the problem with wheat. And I think ultimately wheat is now set up for a rally if something else were to happen, right? Like meaning a sharp rally in road crops, this would allow wheat to say, hey, me too, like this, this, you know, we would be able to protect and something like that. Or something globally, right? Although I'm not sure what else we could throw at the wheat market globally between a war with Russia Ukraine, war with Iran, closure is straight out of Kermuz. It would have to be some major production issue somewhere. Last year, we didn't have that. Pretty much all of the major wheat exporting countries had a great crop. That's extremely rare. This year might be a different story. We're talking about super El Nino. And that would have a pretty negative effect. It would think you would think, you know, historically has a pretty negative effect on the Australian wheat crop, Argentinian wheat crop. So the stage is set. It just doesn't seem like we're quite ready to do it yet. And the big thing that's really holding wheat back, I think, is our domestic balance sheet, which again, 41% stocks to use as ratio just as not a tight situation, Delaney. Ted, let's talk corn and beans because certainly they've seen some positive movement to the upside as well. I think my question has to be for either corn or soybeans. Are we moving into a different uptrend pattern here? Wow. It's a very different time to answer that question, Delaney, because we've had a tremendous amount of volatility in the last week, right? I mean, we had the report on Tuesday. Wheat was limit up. That spilled over in a corn and soybeans, which we didn't talk much about the corn and beans from the report. But they were mildly friendly, you know, nothing terribly bearish, a little bit more so for beans. So I mean, that was a positive thing. But then it was all about the Trump and she meeting. And initially last week, we weren't getting any details. It sounded like agriculture was just not something that was even talked about and the market was very disappointed by that. Especially since, you know, that February 4th, social media post from President Trump saying that China's considering an additional 8 million metric tons of soybeans, the market was expecting at least that if not something more. And when we didn't have the details on that after the meeting, Thursday and Friday, we're very heavy days for corn and soybeans and weed and really everything. And over the weekend, we got the fact sheet from the meeting and it was, you know, it announced via that that there was commitments for $17 billion in ag and ag related products from the US on top of or in addition to the soybean commitments that were made last October. And we found that fairly friendly. We met that with a very strong day on Monday, taking back a lot of losses from the end of last week. The problem with that, though, Delaney, is we haven't seen any follow-through and we haven't heard any real confirmation from China. So now there's a bit of skepticism creeping into the markets, right? And so you have the big up day on Monday, things have kind of simmered down since then, taken back some of those gains. And so you have this wild range that we've had since, you know, basically Monday of last week until now. And this is a deciding point, you know, and it's also the time of year where we're in the time frame where we can put in our sort of yearly highs, right? And so there's that concern, but then there's also concerns about whether planting's been going very smoothly, there's some questions about replant. But without a weather issue, or we start seeing some Chinese purchases and it'd be great to see really anything. If it soybeans, the market's going to say, okay, well, that's part of that 25 million metric tons that they've committed to for next year. But if they start buying things like corn and wheat and looking like, oh, hey, they are going to buy that $17 billion worth of other stuff, aside from soybeans, then things get really interesting and really spicy. So it's very tough to tell Delaney, I don't like the look of the soybean chart right now. You've got a potential head and shoulders topping formation. The corn wasn't looking really good until we had a pretty nice bounce back here this morning. So again, we're in a deciding period and I think what happens from a weather standpoint, but also really what happens from a, are we going to see any flash sales standpoint to China? That's really what the market's going to key on here over the next couple of weeks. And if we don't, if we don't get a weather situation, we don't start seeing these purchases from China of really anything, right? Like I said, I think corn would be the big one that would really make us go, um, if those don't happen, then I worry that you've got a big fun position, they start to get out on the disappointment that, you know, there, there hasn't been these follow-up purchases or announcements from China. That that doesn't leave a good, it doesn't leave a good chart, doesn't leave, well, doesn't leave a whole lot of optimism right now. So I don't know, it can go either way at the moment Delaney. It really could. With Chinese sales, we know a lot of times that they will come from unknown destinations or the weekly export sales will reflect that. What's an indication that we are seeing uptake from China if it doesn't explicitly call that out? Yeah, I think we're going to be looking for that explicit sale to China on a daily five sales weekly export sales reports. The Chinese use the unknown destinations when they're not trying to alert the market or really, you know, yeah, I mean, send the market rallying things like that. But in this scenario, when it's a politically driven thing, they want it to be known, right? I mean, they want President Trump, but really the whole world to know that they are upholding this agreement that theoretically or supposedly we have. So the market is going to really, really want to see that is explicitly too trapped to China, the unknown destinations ones. That's not going to really get us excited. I don't think unless there's some really big numbers that would be, I really only China, right? I mean, that would be the exception to that. But I think the market really, really wants to see the word China explicitly printed in those reports. Ted Switching tracks a bit here, watching the crude oil markets really for the last few weeks. Where do you see it heading from here as we kind of teeter back and forth between getting a deal, maybe not getting a deal? Yeah, I mean, wild volatility in the energy markets. You know, the funny thing about that, though, generally, there was a lot of the major market watchers in institutional firms talking about 200 to $225 crude. Well, yeah, I mean, we've not even come within $100 of that, right? And that that just hasn't happened. Cruz kind of topped out around this $100 range. Yeah, we got up to $121 in the front month a little while ago, but we've really not gotten back close to those highs, the continuous front month highs since then. So I don't know, you know, I mean, crude just feels like it seems adequately priced for what it feels like the situation is, which again, like you mentioned, is ugly and off again, you know, we're going to have a deal, then we're not going to have a deal. We're going to bomb into oblivion and then back to we're going to have a deal and we're going to extend the timeframe for the deal. You know, I don't know. I feel like if there's, if there's going to be a deal, I think it's going to happen over this holiday weekend. If doesn't, you know, next week could be interesting, but you also have to wonder, you know, it sounds like President Trump might be getting close to losing his powers of being able to wage a war without Congress's approval and if that happens, it might end one way or another, you know, so I go back to this, you know, I look at how the market is structured in crude oil and you've got July crude trading at that $100 or above the $100 mark, but then you go out to December and it's trading at 83, which is still an elevated level, but it's well below that $100 mark. It's about a $20 spread between July and December. That's the market saying that it doesn't really believe that this is going going to go on indefinitely. And until that mindset changes, I think, you know, the market sees this as being somewhat temporary. Speculators got excited about alternative energies, you know, ethanol for corn for ethanol and soybeans for biofuels until they kind of realized that you, you can't put raw corn into a gas tank and make your cargo. You can't put raw soybeans into a gas tank and make your cargo. It doesn't work that way. We have to have the infrastructure to grind corn into ethanol and the crushed soybeans and soybean oil. And we're not able to just flip the switch and double that capacity overnight, not even close, right? I mean, the average growth in capacity is about 8% per year. And crushed margins are really asking for that additional soybean processing capacity, which makes a lot sense to Laney because we're struggling with our exports and yet our domestic demand is really good. So yes, the market is trying to build that, but again, it takes a lot of time. So I don't know. From the speculative point of view, I think we're getting a little tired of the narrative, both in the alternative energies, but also with the crude oil market. And so I don't know what it's going to take to get to those $200 level price range that had been talked about. Feels like we're topping out here. And one way or another, I do think there's a pretty good chance that this this war with Iran is over within the next two weeks. Ted, I'm curious to know you have a lot of conversations with farmers from all over the US. So what has the sentiment been as of lately? I mean, I think of it better, right? I mean, we're looking at some halfway decent prices. Yeah. Okay. You know, input costs are very expensive. A lot of us, you know, bought into that, you know, late last year when they weren't so bad. So I mean, there's concern about the input costs side of things, but at least the prices that we're trading are better for this time of year than they have been. You know, so I think cautious optimism is sort of the word there, right? I mean, we would like to see higher prices, but we feel better that, you know, look, a lot of analysts were talking about $8 in front of beans and maybe a three in front of corn, you know, even not that long ago at the end of the calendar year last year. We haven't seen that. So I mean, from a corn and soybean price perspective, I think there's a little bit of optimism. Yeah, we're worried about what inputs might be throughout the growing season, but even more so into our next growing season. But there's a lot of time, I think not a lot of time, but there is some time for that to sort of alleviate itself. So yeah, I think cautious optimism is sort of the word I would use or the phrase I would use. Yeah. Ted, we covered a lot of topics in a very short time. Is there anything else we didn't touch on that you think's important for our viewers to know about? I'm going to caution about the livestock market, right? We are off our highs. We didn't make a higher. The recent highs that we've had in live cattle and feeder cattle didn't reach that upward end of the the upward trending channel. That's red flag number one. And then the volatility we've seen in last couple of weeks kind of seems like we are getting ready to maybe roll over to the downside. I'm a little bit worried about that. I don't know what fundamentally the justification is for that. I mean, you still have the same tight supply story that we've had for a couple of years now. But I've got a little concern on the charts at the moment. And so I think for our livestock guys, we need to be well, cattle complex in particular. We need to be looking at ways to kind of protect the downside there. Even if it's just in the short to midterm, you know, in case we do breakouts with the downside. So I guess that would be the only other thing that we hadn't covered, but I wanted to mention. Great. I'm glad you did, Ted. Thanks for your time today. If our listeners want to get in touch with you or connect with you further, what's the best way to do so? Sure, you can reach me directly at 312-277-0113. That's my direct line. Besides from that, you can find us on the web at www.zaynarr.com. You can read a bit about us. You can sign up for my afternoon commentary, which is a 5-7-minute recording, recapping the grain's markets. We have a brand new daily newsletter, free daily newsletter that you can sign up for. And it is fantastic. I might be biased, but I think it's the best in the industry. It's written by our whole team. We have our chief markets analyst, Karen Bronze, newsletter. You can sign up for a 30-day trial there. And if you're on the X platform, I'm at the timespred. Perfect, Ted. Well, thanks for joining us. Appreciate your time as always. When this week's fertilizer update from Josh Lindville of StoneX, so the President Trump and his administration continues promoting efforts to address the high fertilizer costs, including support for new domestic fertilizer projects. However, Lindville also noted that many of these projects were already planned and may do little to improve the supplies of products like Urea, one of the largest fertilizer imports used by U.S. farmers. Most U.S. potash imports continue coming from Canada, where production is expected to expand in the coming years. Global supply concerns are also continuing to support higher fertilizer prices. Disruptions around the straight and remove are tightening nitrogen and phosphate markets. An analyst of warning prices could remain elevated into 2027. Potash remains the most stable fertilizer segment, although higher freight and fuel costs are still adding pressure to farm input prices. I don't think that was a lot of great news to share with our audience still any. No, it mixed back today for the markets, but certainly appreciate Ted's insight into what's ahead there. And we're going to continue watching what's ahead here on the Agnews Daily podcast. So be sure to tune in with us each week. You can also find us across every major social media platform and at events out in about in farm country. But for today, Tanner, what do you say we let people go? Let's let them go.