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Matt Milner - Private Markets Pros and Cons

43m 30s

Matt Milner - Private Markets Pros and Cons

In this podcast transcript, the hosts critique the U.S. economic and political direction, labeling it a "Banana Republic" characterized by high inflation, excessive government spending (estimated at 60% of GDP including healthcare), and currency devaluation from money printing. They argue this leads to a declining standard of living and a shrinking middle class, drawing comparisons to Argentina's inflationary crises. Politically, both parties are blamed for expanding deficits, imposing tariffs, and increasing military budgets without clear justification. Financially, the hosts recommend strategies to capitalize on inflation, such as using margin to invest in high-yield assets (e.g., Annaly Mortgage) and selling options, claiming these can generate significant "free money" returns. They also promote access to private equity investments through secondary markets, citing examples like SpaceX's valuation growth, as a lucrative opportunity for listeners amid the broader economic downturn they describe.

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- Welcome to Banana Republic America. America's not the land of the free, America is a socialist republic. The government is the largest institution in society. We've printed something like $10 trillion. We've printed 25% of the value of our money away, poof. And you get Banana Republic economics leads to Banana Republic politics, which leads to Banana Republic per capita GDP and standard of living. And we're well on our way. I made $600,000 with no equity, just selling options last year. We live in a terrible society where the average 30-year-old can't afford to buy a home. And a guy like me is making millions and millions and millions of dollars every year, not doing anything. Just this click, click, click. Folks at home, if you want to know how to make a lot of free money, it's really simple. Welcome to the Porter and Company Black Label Podcast, your home for provocative insights that lead to lasting wealth. And here are your hosts, Porter Stansbury and Aaron Brabham. - All right, Porter, it's time for another Black Label show. - It's time and I'm so glad you're here. Thanks for coming all the way up from Medellin. - Yeah. - To be at the farm with us. I've got so much to talk about including a lot of stuff about South America. But where do you want to start? - Let's start with my trip up here. So, traveled through, this is a recent kind of new thing. You know how you're going through TSA and they want to get the photo done. - Yeah, what's up? - And they ditched everything right by a metric, right? Now, when you come up as an American citizen, instead of going to the booth where you have to talk to the person and you interviewed, they literally have four cameras up and you stand in front and it checks it and it says you're good to go. - Wow. - And that's it, literally, like that's faster. - Way faster, but also for me, it's like, you know, there's no evading biometrics. They got us. - Well, I think there's no others, right? Because they make everything more convenient. - That's it. - And then also, you completely lose all your privacy. - That's exactly right. - Yeah, exactly. - How about our president? - Oh, man. - Oh, man. - This guy, this guy, - Welcome to Banana Republic, America. - Actually, this is great because this goes into what I want to talk about today. So, Porter, you were critical of, you're critical of both parties. - Oh, okay. - Okay, this is what being a libertarian is. - There is no such thing as just a competent government. - No, not at all. - But why can't you just clean the streets, balance the budget, and let us all go on about our lives? - That's it. - Why do you have to wreck everything? - Everything. - Either party. - Either party. - So when Trump, you know, one, again, you, they started to doge, right? The apartment of government efficiency. - Yes, and where have we seen this before? - And Porter Horse laughed and wrote about it. - And you got, you got some low back. - People thought that Donald Trump was gonna do the things he said he was gonna do. - And I'm like, you've never met a politician. - Right. - So what did Donald Trump promise to do? He promised to cut a trillion dollars out of the budget and balance the budget. He promised no more wars. - Yeah, yeah. - Well, so far he started too. - Yeah, so far. - That's before. - Right? Yeah, what else did he promise? - He protect the borders. He's done a decent job of that. He promised to throw all the deep state in jail. - He did promise. He did promise to release the Epstein files. - He promised, he talked about that being the biggest thing and then he went to it's a hoax. - But then he went. - Democrat, a hoax. - He called fake news on himself. - Right, it's a fake news. It's a Democrat hoax. - So he reversed on that. - We haven't seen any of the Epstein files. - None of that. - We bombed Iran, we invaded Venezuela. - No deep state arrests. - How about this? - Taxes are up 24% year over year. - 24% is served. - 24% tax collection is up because of tariffs. - That's right. - And by the way, dummies, all costs of production are borne by consumers, all costs of production. The idea that you're not paying for those tariffs is insane. And by the way, the numbers are right there in the federal budget, but guess what else grew by double digits? - The deficit. - The deficit. - And now he's promising to increase the military budget by 50% - 1.5 trillion dollars. - Let me ask you seriously, let me ask you a simple question. Who are we defending ourselves from? Who could possibly threaten the United States? - No one. - We have 5,000 to 7,000 thermonuclear warheads. We have planes that you can't see on radar. We have the very best special forces in the entire world. - My far. - Yeah, so we got 100,000 special forces people, we got nuclear bombs. Why does that cost 1.5 trillion every year? - No, that's an, it's absolutely absurd. It's absolutely absurd. - I guarantee I could defend our country with an annual budget of 100 billion. - A 10th of the current budget, I could defend America. - Yeah, and a lot of this fraud is being uncovered right now and people are pissed off because now they realize maybe 80% of that $38 trillion is fraud and scams and laundering back to politicians and NGOs. - So total government spending as a percentage GDP is currently around 40%. - 40%, okay, but that leaves out healthcare. - Right. - And healthcare is so tightly regulated by the government and the government's the largest client of healthcare. - That's right. - That you really should include it as government spending. You put that on top, now we're at 60%. America's out the land of the free. America is a socialist republic. And how much of that 60% of our GDP is fraud? - Ah, it's gotta be 90%. - I think it's a minimum of 20%. - Minimum, I think it's 20%. - I think it's a stream amount. - But there isn't a stream amount of fraud. It's an extreme amount. - How many people are getting so security checks that are dead? - According to Elon, a lot. - Millions. - That's right, millions. - And they won't, they don't do anything. - And how many of you are getting it that were illegals that were given, you know. - 'Cause all these are just feedback loops that go back to the politicians. So, okay, Porter, talking about like-- - The Banana Republic of America. - Banana Republic of America. So you just went down to Argentina. When was the last, I know you've been Argentina a lot 'cause you've been to Cafe Jacque, you've been to Buenos Aires, you've-- So my business partners and friends did a wonderful development down there called Estancia de Cafe Jacque. If you have a computer, you should Google it. It really is a beautiful place. They've got a great vineyard. They've got a great golf course. It's a wonderful destination. It's in Salta Province, which is in the northwest part of Argentina. And it's in the Andes. It's a gorgeous spot. And I went down there a lot between 2005 when we bought the land. And then about 2016 when the development was more or less built out. And I hadn't been down there since 2016. - Okay. - But I've been down there a lot to go duck hunting, you know, to do the trout fishing that everyone does. A lot of Argentina is a great country. And the upper class there is extraordinarily well educated, very smart, very sophisticated. The trouble with Argentina, and it's a trouble that we now have in America 'cause of the urban board policy, is about half the country is virtually uneducated. I mean, literate, uneducated. And they get bamboozled by the Presidente who, you know, destroys the country every 10 years with an inflationary crisis. And that's what we saw happen in 1989, 1990, when my friend Eduardo began buying up all the trophy properties in the country. So he owns the best hotel in Buenos Aires, which is the Alvier Palace. And he owns the best hotel in Patagonia. - It's a great hotel I stayed there. - Which is the Jal Jal. So, you know, he has found a way to survive in this society. And it's real simple. He buys trophy properties and he leverages into the hilt so that he makes a profit as the currency gets destroyed. And that is what I've suggested that people need to start doing in America too. And it's like, you know how when you're playing spades, if it's bid tight, if it's bid full, then everyone's playing their very best cards trying to win their trick. But if it's bid, real slack, if it's bid 10, then everyone's sloughing, okay? And it's a totally different game. It's like inverted. - Yes. - Well, the same thing happens in an economy when you go from having sound money to having a hyperinflation. Everything gets inverted. So your whole life, you were told stay out of debt, don't pay interest, don't borrow money. - That's right. - You know, pay off your mortgage, all that stuff. And when there's sound money, that's what you should do. But when the world is upside down, it's inverted. And in those situations, you can actually make a lot of money if you know how to use leverage correctly. - And that's what you did last year, personally. - Personally, yeah. So I've been using a lot of margin in my trading account. And I'm now at 130% year over year. Because the real inflation rate in America by the data that I see is really between 10 and 15%. And I'm only paying four or five percent for the margin. So that's a huge spread. - Huge. - That's a double digit spread, it's free money to me. And that's seeing this happen in America makes me very sad. Because even over the 25 years that I've spent going to Argentina, I've seen that country absolutely crumble. And by the way, it wasn't, you know, it wasn't a first world country when I started going there. It was still pretty impoverished. And it's gotten much worse. Because another 25 years of double digit inflation just wiped everyone out. There's no middle class left in Argentina. I think the per capita GDP there is now about 7,000. - Wow. - 7,000. So it went from Argentina was the wealthiest country in the world of 100 years ago. Number one, and per capita GDP. Now it's 70 second. - God, that's a huge world. - That's because they've had 50, 60 years of inflationary crisis after inflationary crisis. And it all started with a guy who was the, just like Donald Trump, his name was Perone, Juan Perone. And he basically made the state, the center of the entire economy. He set up the tariffs, he picked the winners and the losers of companies. You see the other day, Trump said, we're not going to let it exon into Colombia. - Yeah. - Because I didn't like what their CEO said. - Yeah. - Like that kind of stuff is not the way Americans do business. - Not free couples. - Trying to put the central bank guy in jail. Look, I'm the fan of the central bank, but the guy's not a criminal. - He didn't create the institution. - Yeah, I mean, and you use all the criticisms, of course, that Trump used with Biden and weaponizing the DOJ. I mean, this, this, Trump is on extreme steroids doing this stuff. It's actually insane. It's insane behavior. - It's banana republic behavior. - That's what it is. - First, we get banana republic monetary policy where we've printed what since 2008? By my estimation, we've printed something like $10 trillion. We've printed 25% of the value of our money away. Poof. And you get, you saw that banana republic economics leads to banana republic politics, which leads to banana republic per capita GDP and standard of living. - Yeah, we are. It's very sad, it's very frustrating, and it makes your job a little bit more difficult, I think, Porter, because your job is to protect and grow peoples. - Sadly, sadly, it makes my job blindingly easy. - Okay. - All right, it folks at home, if you wanna know how to make a lot of free money, it's really simple. You open an interactive broker's account. I think today you're paying something like 4.9% on your margin. If you have more than $100,000 in the account, you can use two X, you can borrow $100,000 on your $100,000. And you buy something like anally mortgage, which is paying something like a 12 or a 13% yield right now. Well, do the math, all right? If I'm getting, I bought anally like a year and a half ago, so I'm getting like 16%, okay? So 16% minus 5%, is 11%. I'm getting 11% for free on all the money that I just borrowed. - Yeah, that's fantastic. And anally's been something you've talked about for a long time. - By the way, that's like a very good average return on equity. - Oh, for sure. - That's like an equity-like return. - Absolutely. - I'm getting it completely for free. - That's amazing. - Yeah, but you're right. Now is the time to invert. - And if you know, if you know-- - It's margin. - You can do that if you don't know, if you know nothing about investing, right? - Okay. - If you're smart enough to know how to buy something like a prime biotech, if you're smart enough to know something about buying EVT when it was $35 a share, if you're smart enough to understand why you should buy a venture global at $7 where it is today. You know, my underlying equity return last year was something like 30%, 40%. - That's-- - And I'm levered. - It's absurd. - So the returns are enormous. And we've talked a lot about that with Porter's permanent portfolio that we've done before. And of course, these are things that we publish. - Yeah, of course. - These are all for us to travel. - The unlevered return of the permanent portfolio last year, which is an asset allocation strategy that blends hard money, meaning gold, silver, Bitcoin, fixed income, which is a mix of mortgages and insurance companies, property and casualty insurance, not life insurance. And then high quality equities, like caterpillar and deer and Coca-Cola and Philip Morris, like Blue Chip. And that did, I think, 24% in its first year as a portfolio. Again, if you're leveraged, you know, you're getting close to 50% a year. On, by the way, not on a stock. On your entire portfolio. So if you retire with $10 million and you use this strategy, you just made $5 million last year. - That's monster. - Why? Because they're printing money. And as long as they're printing money, equity prices nominally are going to go higher. - Nothing stops this train. - Nothing stops that train. And the other big trick, and this is a big trick, is if you know how to sell options, you can get incredible, you can get incredible leverage to the market, and strike prices aren't inflation adjusted. - That's right, they're not inflation adjusted. And you found the sweet spot, how far to go out? 90 days? - 90 days. - Yep, the fact that it's not inflation adjusted is actually pretty amazing. - I made $600,000 with no equity, just selling options last year. - That's amazing. Free money, that's amazing. Free money. - And anyone who wants can do this. - Yep. - There's no rule against it, at least not yet. - That's me. - But listen, we live in a terrible society where the average 30-year-old can't afford to buy a home. - 'Cause you got the knowledge and it's a K-shaped economy and-- - It shouldn't be that way, you know? This is iron ran. - But this is the Banana Republic of America. - That's it. - The upper class making all the money, the middle class getting completely destroyed. - Yep, that's exactly right. - And the stupid thing is the next election, what will they do? They'll vote for more of it. - Oh, 100%. That's all they do. - Anyone who comes out and says, I'm going to cut government services because we're bankrupting ourselves, will not win an election. - Nope. - Anyone who comes out and promises you the sun and the moon and the stars. - They win. - You don't have to pay for any of it, supposedly. - Yep. - They'll win. - Absolutely. - How do they finance that exactly? They tell you they're going to tax me. - That's right. - They don't. - Yep. - Because no matter what the taxes are, I'll just make more money. You're going to beat it. - Yep. - Well, Porter, we want to give another opportunity to our listeners and subscribers. And I know that some of them took the leap of faith and participated about a year ago. We had Matt Milner with crowdability and we partnered with them to educate our people and give them an opportunity to get into some private placements. - And I was extremely skeptical. - Well, yeah, I mean, and you know. - I was extremely skeptical. - Well, private placements usually don't work out that great. - What I remember about private placements goes back to the 1990s and they were extremely bad deals most of them and there was no transparency. You didn't know what you were getting or what you weren't getting. - That's right. - And so I was like, oh, I'm not sure. I don't think we want to send our people down to that path. But guess what? I was exactly wrong. I wasn't up to speed on the development of the secondary markets like Matt is. - Yep. - And of course, I couldn't have known that the stock that he was getting our customers into SpaceX would go up by four times. - No, that's wild. So we get a lot of questions. So we want to invite Matt on. Matt has a new opportunity and he always has opportunities but when he's really excited about-- - This one sounds great. He calls it the super IPO. - Yeah, that's right. Super IPO. - Listen, last year I was super skeptical. This year I really want to invest. So let's bring him on. Okay, let's do it. All right, Porter, Matt Milner, here he is. - Matt, it's great to see you. I want to say thanks. The last deal you put together for our subscribers included shares in SpaceX and they have just gone bonkers. I don't know exactly how big the gains were for people. Can you tell us about how that developed and how you got those shares for folks? - You bet, you bet. So you got in touch with me about a year ago and you said, "Although you weren't sure you wanted to recommend it yourself, you thought some of your readers might actually be interested in learning that it was possible and how to do it." So we basically did a bunch of different journalistic entries about it. Just showing people what SpaceX was, telling them about the business. And we eventually showed a bunch of your readers how to get shares and what's called the secondary market so we can talk about that in a minute. Well, I've story short, when we started talking about it, the shares were trading at about 100 bucks. By the summer, they had already doubled to 200 bucks. And as of a few weeks ago, they're trading for about 400 bucks. It's actually Elon's favorite number, 420, which implies a $800 billion valuation. So - Incredible. - Great going for your readers, depending on where they got in and when they got in. I'd say somewhere between two and four times their money are ready and now we can look forward to potentially a trillion and a half dollar IPO, which would double their shares again. So potentially it could be a 10-bagger, pretty exciting. - Matt, that is extraordinary. And I know there's been a lot of growth in the secondary markets. They're not like a stock exchange. They're not publicly traded yet, but it is possible for people to invest in these secondary markets. And you've become our go-to expert on this new development. I got two questions for you, really. Which is number one is, why are these companies staying private so much longer than they did say 20 years ago when I came up with the financial markets? And then number two, what are the pitfalls? What are things that people who haven't invested in these secondary markets? What are a couple of things they need to watch out for? - Great questions. The story I like to start with is a story about a name that I think most people are familiar with. It's Microsoft. So when Microsoft went public, and we're talking about the 1980s, it had a market cap of $700 million. Today it's worth about three and a half trillion, right? So anyone who decided to take a flyer on a stock called Microsoft is sitting on 5,000 times their money. That's fantastic. Now let's compare that to a company like OpenAI. So OpenAI of course is the AI startup founded by Sam Albin, it's company behind ChatGPT. It's still a private company, it's a private startup. It's already valued at somewhere between $50750 billion, right? By the time it goes public, it'll be worth a trillion, maybe more. How are we supposed to make money on a company like that if we invest in it after it goes public? I mean, honestly, we won't. We won't. I mean, we can talk about whether AI is in a bubble or not, but OpenAI is richly valued already. The thing is, we're not just talking about OpenAI. At the moment, there are somewhere between 1,300 and 1,500 unicorns, right? Private companies value to at least a billion bucks. If we go back to 2,000, you're talking about going back 20 years, there are just ten of these unicorns. So what's happening is companies are staying private longer. And as they stay private longer, more of the growth is taking place in the private markets. And just to put some numbers on it, in the 80s, companies would go public after four to four or five years, right? They'd be private for four or five years, then they go public in the stock market. By 2,000, that number went up to 68 years. And nowadays, companies are staying private for 12 to 16 years. And again, why is that so important? If they're staying private longer, that means more their growth, their business growth, sure, but also their growth and valuation is taking place in the private markets. So as a private startup increases in valuation from, say, 5 or 10 million bucks when it's getting started, to 100 million, to a billion, to 100 billion, to 500 billion, all those gains, and we're talking about trillions of dollars, they used to go to investors in the stock market, like in Microsoft. Now those gains are going up private market investors. And that's why we think it's so important to have at least some exposure to the private markets. - Yeah, that's a really, really incredible and dynamic change in the financial markets. So I don't think most people have ever even thought about before. It is, it is a very big difference buying a company at a billion dollar valuation or buying it at a trillion dollar valuation. Obviously, it's going to be harder to produce large compound returns if you're buying at a trillion dollar valuation relative to a billion. When I, again, the question is a little naive because I really don't know much about these markets. But when I, again, when I was coming up to the financial markets, these kinds of private equity type deals were typically really high risk. But it seems like now these companies are way more mature. I'm sure many of them or all of them have great cash flows and good business models. Like they're, it's not the same thing as it would have been in 1997 when I was asked if I wanted to put money into the diesel genes, you know, pre-IPO thing, you know? And diesel genes is one of the good ones. That's right, that was a winner. So anyways, I'm just, I'm just curious. What, what do people, I know the markets have matured. I know there are a lot safer than they used to be. But what do people need to watch out for if they're going to participate in these secondary markets? And then how do they do it? Great questions. So let's talk about three different ways that your readers can actually get access to the private markets. And let's look at the pros and cons, like realistically. And just a quick reminder, according to the SEC, right? There's two different types of investors. There's accredited investors and unaccredited. If you're an accredited investor, you have a net worth at least a million bucks or you have annual income of 200 grand or 300 grand with your spouse. All right. The first way that people can get access to the private markets is to what I call mutual funds for startups. Now, these are publicly traded shares. They're 40 X funds. But instead of being composed of stocks, they're composed of private companies. Now, two of the most popular Destiny Tech 100, the ticker is DXYZ. And another popular one is Arc Venture Fund, ARKVX. Now, Destiny Tech has about 20 private companies in it. Its biggest allocation is the SpaceX, about 20% of the fund is in SpaceX. Arc is similar, although it has less exposure to SpaceX, more exposure to other Elon companies, including XAI and also Neuralink. Pros and cons. It's very cool that any investor for as little as 20 bucks or 30 bucks can actually get access to the private markets. On the cons side, there's so much demand for some of these companies, including SpaceX. DXYZ is a closed-end fund that currently trades at three to five times NAV. - I don't want anyone to be investing at a premium, right? - No. - So that's a huge red flag. - Number two, Arc Venture Fund. - By the way, that's something very important to be aware of. Very hard. - 100%. - Anyone watching, anytime you buy a closed-end fund, you have to be very concerned about whether the value of that fund is accurately matching the value of the investments. And when there's a huge premium, you can sometimes pay way too much. - I think it's a huge risk. I don't really recommend that people get exposure this way. That being said, it has traded as high as 20 times NAV. So could you make money from it? - Yeah. - Possibly you could. But still, what Porter said, I believe in 100%, is very risky to buy a premium. Arc Venture Fund, very good dynamics, very good returns. Extenses are extraordinarily high. They're 575 basis points. So buying at a premium, high expenses, two things that I just like to cross-hop my list, not ideal. The second way you can get shares is through what Porter mentioned earlier. They're called the secondary platforms. On the secondary platform, you get early share holders and investors in all these unicorn companies, SpaceX, XAI, et cetera. They're selling some of their early shares and accredited investors can buy those shares. Minimums are 10 grand, 25 grand, 50 grand, although if you know what you're doing, where you have somebody like our company, we can help you navigate this. You can get shares for just five grand and sometimes just 1,000 bucks. So not crazy. What happens though is that you can't just click a button like on Amazon to say you want to buy the shares. To get shares, you typically have to navigate a bidding process. You need to know how to navigate their process and you also need how much, how much you can pay for it. Like what's actually a fair price? Secondly, if you want to get shares directly, the minimum is about 150 grand. Otherwise, you're investing through what's called a special purpose vehicle and SPV. There's nothing wrong with SPVs. That's what I've used to get shares of SpaceX, XAI, et cetera. You just gotta be really careful. A couple big things to watch out for. First of all, you gotta make sure that the shares you think you're gonna buy are actually inside that fund. I've heard a lot of people, they don't check. They're not there. There can be fraud. Does it happen often? No, but you don't want to be that case for this fraud. Secondly, sometimes with these SPVs, they get nested. So we invest in this fund. It's investing in this fund and it's investing in this fund. When you get nested funds like that, sometimes you could be on the hook for three levels of expenses and three different parties dipping into your pocket to take what should be your profits. Now, I don't want to scare people. This isn't hard. It's not hard to do. It's not difficult. But if you don't know what you're doing, it really pays to have a trusted advisor who can help. Absolutely. Those are the secondary platforms. The third way, and I just touch on a briefly, it's what's called equity crowdfunding. So folks might have known for about 85 years, ever since the Great Depression. It was literally illegal for unaccredited investors to invest in private startups. A lot of started changing about 10 years ago. Now everyone, no matter what their net income or their net worth is, they can invest at least something. Minimums are very low, a few hundred bucks. So even if you have a small amount of capital, you really can build a diversified portfolio of these companies and that is how you minimize your risk and maximize your profits. Pros and cons, on the pros side, it's very cool that everyone can invest in startups now. On the cons side for equity crowdfunding, I gotta tell you, there's probably three or four dozen different investment platforms where you can find these deals. And most of those platforms, unfortunately, are just crap. And even on the platforms that are good, and they include we funders, start engine, republic, even on the good platforms. Most of their companies are either low quality or the companies are great, but the deals are structured in such a way that we'd never make money. So it really pays, if you can do the due diligence yourself, and I'm sure you have a lot of sophisticated readers, if they can do it, I think that's great. If they can't make sure you're aligning yourself with somebody who can, the returns are definitely there. At buy company crowdability, we have multiple, multiple investments that are multi-baggers. Two times, three times, 10 times, 40 times. We have losers, of course. But when you're doing venture investing, you have to expect about it the third of the companies you're gonna invest in, they're not gonna work out. You'll get a return to your capital on second third, and the third bucket is where you're gonna get your multi-baggers. So diversification is incredibly important. - Well, Matt, I know that that distribution occurs. I have done some venture investing in my career. And I know that there are the three buckets, but I'm only interested in the bucket with the big returns. (laughing) How do I, that's the only bucket I want. And I know that's, I'm obviously, we're joking, but I do think it's really important that people really understand that in this type of investing, it is so important to diversify. You need to be in multiple bets. The same thing, by the way, when I do investments in distress corporate debt. Same exact thing. You're gonna, the third of them are gonna blow up, the third of them are gonna be fine, and the third of them are gonna be great. And, you know, you just can't know, for sure, what's, what, when you invest? And that's the risk that you take, and therefore the return that you earn. So how do you guide people through this? If I was a, if I'm a retired orthopedic surgeon, and I've got, you know, an investment portfolio of 10 million or 20 million, and I come to you, Matt, and I say, yeah, I wanna allocate to these private companies because they're staying private longer, and I'm aware of the risks. How do you do that? How do you structure people's investments so that they are in enough of these buckets that they are very likely to make an overall satisfactory return? - It's a great question, and it's probably the most important question. First of all, asset allocation, right? If you're, if you're investing 10 million bucks, hopefully you're putting 95% of it in like Porter's permanent portfolio or something like that. You're not spending a big bucket of your current allocation on venture. Venture returns highly positive if you're diversifying, but also highly risky, and also it's not very liquid, right? So you can't just turn your shares in a cash in any time. So number one is asset allocation. Most of it should be where you're most comfortable, where you have no returns. You might decide to allocate maybe 5%, maybe 10% into alternative investments like this, and you're gonna do that in a diversified portfolio, and you're gonna do it over time. So that's number one. You just gotta be asked that, I like it. - Can I just interrupt you right there? - Sure. - I think that the most important thing is actually the thing that people forget almost every time, which is you have to diversify, and you have to diversify over time, because humans being the way they are, they just wanna check the box and be done. - That's right. - I wanna make this investment. I'm gonna send you a check and I'm done. Yeah, well, that's okay, but the vintage of these things matters a great deal. And so you wanna be across different companies and you also wanna be across different rounds. - You don't wanna miss a really big wave of something either. So if you're gonna invest in 20 or 30 companies, you can't do them all today. - No. - You have to go through several different rounds. You didn't wanna invest in the internet bubble at the top. Right? You wanted to spread your risk. You don't wanna invest in AI at the top either. And we can talk about whether it's in AI is in a bubble. I think it's really important when you're talking about venture investing because most venture dollars today are going to AI. - Yeah, well, these things are just very important. So your program, I've seen it work for my customers. And every time I sit down and talk with you, I'm always so impressed by your approach to this and how thorough and realistic you are with all this stuff. Because as you know, there are a lot of venture promoters who are just trying to raise a bunch of money and really don't have any idea what they're doing. And people are not very well served by that. So how can our audience get involved if they do want to allocate to venture through you? And I would absolutely recommend that if you're gonna do this, you do this through Matt's company. What's the next step for folks? - What we do very simply is help ordinary investors get into these high potential companies while they're still private. And one of the ways we do that is through a recommendation service we have. It's called private market profits. Essentially, every month we send one recommendations to our readers. These recommendations happen to be for all investors, including on accredited investors. Minimums are low, a few hundred bucks a month. And our minimum profit target is always a thousand percent or more. So it's 10 times your money or more. And then for accredited investors, we help them navigate these secondary platforms. And these are big names that people might be familiar with already. Equities N, forge, hive, et cetera. We just really wanna make sure that people are paying attention to diversification and also price. You mentioned this earlier, but you can't expect if you're investing a too high evaluation to compound your money over time. It just doesn't work. So we're very, very attuned to price and valuation. - That sounds great. - Yeah, and Matt, you have a current recommendation that you're working on right now. It's an in-cutele backed picks and shovels play. And you know, Porter, you talk a lot about the AI bubble. I mean, this is a big thing. - Well, and also I talk a lot about how nothing stops his train. And in-cutele is the venture arm of the CIA, basically. - Exactly. - So they're gonna have a lot of funding. - Yeah, a lot of funding. - They're gonna buy a lot of picks and shovels. - Yeah, so can you tell us a little bit about this? - I can, so like you guys said, it's an AI company. I believe that AI isn't a bubble, but bubbles are interesting, right? This is a gold rush, and there is almost unlimited capital still flowing into it. And when you get a gold rush, there's two ways to play it. You can buy for gold, or you can sell picks and shovels, right? We all know this. And there's a great example of money for gold versus picks and shovels with the internet, of course. You could have bought for gold. You invest in pets.com, you lose all your money. Or you invest in Cisco, but sell riders to everybody and became briefly the most valuable company in the earth. I think most people forget that. - That's right. - So the company that we're very focused on is a picks and shovel play in AI. And just to set the stage here, if you guys are running any commerce company, right? You're selling cars, or clothes, or diapers, or whatever. You're not going out to buy servers anymore and co-locating them and connecting to the internet. You just use Amazon, use AWS. If you have an AI company, though, right? If you're open AI, running chat CBT to a billion people. If you're a Tesla, you need AI in the cloud. If you're the government, and you have an intelligence program, you're not using AWS. That would be like, you know, like a Formula One driver like Lewis Hamilton driving a Prius. It's just, it doesn't make sense. You can't do it. And that's where this private company that we just started recommending comes into the picture. It's basically Amazon Web Service, but it's for AI. So it's a real company. It's doing half a billion dollars in revenue. Again, it's still a private startup, and it's doing 500 million bucks in revenue. It's back, not just by Nvidia, which right now is able to just wave its magic wand and sort of annoy winners. And like Porter just said, it's backed by Inkytel. This is the venture-funded group of the CIA. It's last big kick like this was Palantir. You guys know Palantir. It's up 200,000% since the CIA invested, right? So they made 2,000 times their money. And lastly, and this is a really big one 'cause we've talked today about liquidity and the fact that one of the things that isn't so great about venture investing is, you can't just sell your shares for cash. You gotta hold your shares. This company's already hired bankers for an IPO in 2026. It's hired Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and CityCorp. This IPO is happening in 2026. So we know the exit, we got a clear line of sight on it, which is very exciting, it's pretty unusual. - Yeah, that's very unusual, that sounds very good. - And we're calling it a super IPO because we have big visibility and because the profits, while we can't guarantee anything, we are looking at somewhere around 40 times our money projected in the next year or so. And if it works out, which again, we can't guarantee, it could be more like a hundred times or even far more, just like Palantir. If you wanna learn more about that, I know it enough time to discuss too much today. It's super IPO 2026.com, super IPO 2026.com. You can learn more there. - Great, super IPO 2026.com. That's a URL that we should remember. - Yeah, that's a easy one. - You guys must have come up with this one. - I think that making 40 times my money would be extraordinary return. - Yes, for sure. And there'll be a lot of information in there and Matt, this is very helpful because we get a lot of questions. Obviously, we've got a lot of feedback. People really happy with the results that they've achieved so far with you, but we still get a lot of questions. I think this will answer a lot of questions. - I think they're really clear. - Everyone who's interested should just check out the URL and then if they have further questions, they can reach out to us. We have a very complicated email address, but it's feedback at Porter and Company Research. - Research.com. - Yep, that's right. - So Matt, thank you very much for joining us today. I know you've got a run to catch a plane. I'd love to catch up with you sometime in Manhattan. I will ping you the next time I'm in the city and hopefully we can grab a coffee and talk more about super IPO 2026.com. - Jen, thanks so much, great to see you both. - Okay, bye-bye. - Porter, Matt's impressive. - That was very impressive. I just, he just comes across as so knowledgeable, incredible. And I'm sure that people, if they do business with them, they'll be very impressed with the results. - Yeah, so you remember when I had my brief stint as a stockbroker? - Yes. - Yeah. So one of the things that I learned quickly was private placements and accredited investors. - Yes, hang on. Before you tell the story, I just have to point out that I think we finally cured you. - Okay, what of? - Because you were like the heat seeking missile for whatever part of the economy was overvalued at about the crash. - I destroyed mortgages. - You okay, mortgages. - You ticked the top and mortgages. - 100%. - Then you tipped the top, you ticked with the top and the stocks. - Yes. - And then when I remember when you joined my company, I was very nervous. - Oh yeah, definitely. - We didn't want there to be a top and porter. - I am proud to say I was not at market wise during the debacle. - No. - Because that might have been blamed on me. That might have come back on me somehow. - But you didn't. - I didn't. - No. - And I came back when you built porter and company. - Yes. - And so far. - You're in the ground floor. - So far, the trajectory is looking good. - We've done far. - That's right. - There's a little shaky light. I think we're working together, we cured the curse. - We have, we broke the curse. - Yes. - I'm very happy with. So yeah, so stockbroker, you know, I had just taken my series 63 and series seven, learned all kinds of things that you never use, right? And I sat down in the chair and my good friends, like, okay, let me tell you about private placements. This is where we're going to make the money. And I was like, okay. And he's like, you remember the accredited investor thing? I'm like, yeah, 250,000 or 200,000 or a million net worth. But while he goes, that's what we're going for. And I said, okay, he goes, I've got a list of three of these right now. We're picking up the phone and we're dialing for dollars. I go, how much can you make all this? He's like, I can make like 20, 25%. And I'm like, well, how do they do for people? - Yeah. - Well, like the Wolf of Wall Street. - Yeah. - Or a boiler room. - Yeah, exactly. So I was like, oh, I don't know if I really want to be in this type of business. - Yeah, that's exactly right. But these new secondary markets are very, very different than all that. I really liked how, that was a great question you had, which was what's the difference today then before and how they're maturing privately before going public? - Very different things. And I think also there's so much more transparency now. - Yes. - When you would get these calls in the '90s for diesel genes or for all I integrate films or those couple of the deals that I remember from back then, those deals worked out fine. - Right. - But you weren't really told about any of these fee structures. You weren't told about the broker getting 25%. - No. - Never, you're never told about any of that. - But with this stuff, it's all there's all kinds of disclosures, like even those publicly traded funds. You know exactly what the 500 and something basis point fee you're paying. - That's right. - And the closed in one. You know what the premium is. So those are real big innovations. And I really love the way that Matt's group does the crowdfunding. I think that's the best way to get the best deals. - Yeah, it's very smart. All right, Porter, well that's our show for today. As always, we love VBAC. As you mentioned, it's feedback at Porter and company research dot C-O-M. - Yeah, let me ask a special favor for everybody who's watched the show today. I'd love to know what you really think about what we talked about, how we believe that I believe America's on this path to inflationary destruction, vis-a-vis Argentina. I'd love to know if you think I'm dead wrong about that or if you think I'm on the right track. And if you see signs of that in your community and in your day-to-day, we'd love to have that feedback. Thank you. - Thank you guys. - Thank you for listening to the Porter and Company Black Label podcast with your hosts Porter Stansbury and Aaron Brabham. We'll see you soon. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The hosts argue that the U.S. is becoming a "Banana Republic" due to excessive money printing, high government spending, and inflationary policies that erode currency value and living standards.
  2. They criticize both major political parties for expanding government, increasing deficits, and engaging in what they see as economically destructive policies like tariffs and excessive military spending.
  3. The discussion advocates for personal financial strategies to profit from inflation, such as using leverage (margin), investing in high-yield assets, and selling options, positioning these as ways to navigate a declining economy.
  4. A parallel is drawn to Argentina's economic decline due to persistent inflation and state-centric policies, warning of a similar erosion of the middle class in America.
  5. The hosts promote an investment service offering access to private company shares (like SpaceX) via secondary markets, highlighting substantial past gains.

Summary:

S. economic and political direction, labeling it a "Banana Republic" characterized by high inflation, excessive government spending (estimated at 60% of GDP including healthcare), and currency devaluation from money printing. They argue this leads to a declining standard of living and a shrinking middle class, drawing comparisons to Argentina's inflationary crises.

Politically, both parties are blamed for expanding deficits, imposing tariffs, and increasing military budgets without clear justification. , Annaly Mortgage) and selling options, claiming these can generate significant "free money" returns. They also promote access to private equity investments through secondary markets, citing examples like SpaceX's valuation growth, as a lucrative opportunity for listeners amid the broader economic downturn they describe.

FAQs

It refers to the idea that America is becoming a socialist republic with excessive government spending, monetary inflation, and economic policies that lead to declining standards of living, similar to unstable economies.

By using leverage, such as margin accounts, to invest in high-yield assets like Annaly Mortgage, where the return exceeds borrowing costs, effectively earning 'free money' from the spread.

The Porter's Permanent Portfolio, which blends hard money (e.g., gold, Bitcoin), fixed income, and high-quality equities, aims for robust returns, especially when leveraged.

Opportunities include high returns from pre-IPO growth, but risks involve lack of transparency and market volatility; secondary markets now offer more access to such investments.

It leads to higher costs of living, reduced purchasing power, and a widening wealth gap, making it difficult for younger generations to afford homes or build savings.

They argue that both parties promote excessive government spending, fail to balance budgets, and engage in policies that undermine economic freedom and efficiency.

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