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Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?

41m 39s

Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?

The discussion compares the current AI wave to past bubbles, highlighting key differences. Unlike the dot-com era, today's bubble is driven by private capital, with VCs and PE firms heavily investing in pre-revenue companies at inflated valuations. Market leaders like Google and Meta are borrowing heavily to fund AI infrastructure, risking a private credit crisis. However, AI implementation in enterprises remains challenging; despite hype, it requires significant human intervention, with companies like Microsoft hiring thousands of forward-deployed engineers. The speaker argues that AI is not eliminating white-collar jobs as predicted but instead creating demand for AI-literate workers. For entrepreneurs, AI tools like Lovable enable rapid prototyping, allowing startups to build software that previously required millions of dollars. Yet, AI agents often become brittle and require constant maintenance. The speaker warns against overbuilding data centers, drawing parallels to the fiber optic bubble, and advocates for more IPOs to facilitate M&A using stock as currency. Ultimately, AI presents immense opportunity but is far from autonomous, requiring human expertise to bridge the gap between potential and practical application.

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You and I lived through a couple of bubbles. We've seen this movie before. And this wave seems very different than their doc on wave. So let's talk about that. Are you concerned about a bubble? We're seeing bubbly, like behavior people. It's not the traditional.com bubble, right? 'Cause back then, there were s*** companies going public, getting crazy valuations of people or buying them. And the stock would go up, you know, 50%, 100% with companies that had no revenue, no traffic, no nothing. And you'd go get a cab back then and people would be talking about them. Yeah. And you don't see that at all today. So it's not a bubble that's going to impact most people in the room, right? Or most people across the US. But it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE, right? Because they're going all in. ♪ I'm going all in ♪ - Apploven started with an $8 domain and no VC funding and became one of the largest ad platforms in the world. Now that same engine powers Apploven ads for e-commerce. Your ads run inside mobile games, reaching over a billion people with full screen distraction for attention. The platform finds buyers and optimizes for profit. You set the target, it does the rest. One cookware brand went from $4 million to $16 million turned profitable and is on pace for $80 million this year. Visit apploven.com/all-in to launch your first campaign today. ♪ I'm doing all in ♪ - It used to be that product managers for brokerages had to outperform their numbers, right? For the SBX or whatever. But now you got to outperform to keep the money coming in. You got to outperform the fun next store. And they're all in that and then through Epic and getting their outcomes and SpaceX and celebrating. But if she hits the fan. - Yeah. - Whew. - It really is. I've only done venture for just over 10 years. And it is wild to watch so many people who deployed at the wrong time just at a business. They just invested at the peak and entry price matters. And you and I have been in a bunch of deals together and we used to get to investing companies at 5 million, 10 million as angel investors. And all of a sudden the request was 40, 50, 60 and the product's not launched. - No, and not it just work. - Yeah. - And what's happening now is the market leaders, Google, et cetera, meta, they're borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars. - Yeah, that's interesting. And there's already a private credit problem right now. So you just layer on private credit like Al Capital getting all the refunds. And then you have these huge companies that have cashflow. But they're spending all their cashflow and CapEx. And then they're borrowing on top of that. - That's the year of bonds. - Right, that's planning for perfection. And that's going to be hard. And we're building these data centers. And if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements, there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts. - Interesting, because they just can't get the power turned on. - No, and then just the power, just everybody thinks that, okay, there's going to be so much more utilization. And there will be, right? It'll just scale like everybody expects. But there's going to be breakthroughs and technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw fiber back in the day. It was all about putting it in fiber then it went from one gigabyte fiber to 10 to 100 gigabyte. And then there wasn't a fiber problem anymore. There wasn't a bandwidth problem. - Quite the opposite. We had dark fiber that people bought. - That being abused, yeah, for the pennies on the dollar. - And just sitting there, right? And how is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side? - Yeah. - And then with all the hate going against data centers, I think that could be protecting them. And I mean, spending, committing tens of billions of dollars for 10, 20 years going out. I mean, nobody can predict that well. - I mean, you used the word pricing to perfection, I think, earlier in the conversation. And that's really what's happening. I mean, you have to have a thesis that we're going to put a hundred, you know, open AI, a hundred billion dollars to work and that's going to come back not just in revenue, but it has to come back in earnings. - A margin dollar is there. - Yeah, it has to be profitable. - Yes, and you just don't know, you know. - And I'll tell you the other in terms, the corollary for bubbles, right? In this particular bubble, 'cause it's so driven by private capital, there should be a lot more companies going public, not at the SpaceX level for not open AI, not inthropic, but the hundred million dollar IPO. Because if AI does what AI knows, we all know what it'll do in terms of disruption, then you want to have some sort of currency that allows you to buy all those companies. Like you guys were talking about buying different legal companies, right? Well, if you don't have that currency, the stock is currency, you're going to have to go out and raise money to do it, and if anything happens and that money is not cheap, that money is really, really expensive, versus if you go out and you do a hundred million dollar IPO or a 50 million dollar IPO, and you can do a secondary whatever as many times as you need if you're performing, but the minute that company that you're competing with, that is a legacy business, can't keep up, or there's some other company that has go main expertise that you need or data that you need, like you guys were talking about. You want to be in a position to buy them. - Yes, that is incredible. - That is incredible, we're thinking, yeah, no one is for, we're thinking like that at all, and I'm trying to tell my portfolio companies, go public, other (beep) go public, they just don't think that's the right thing to do. - Well, an M&A is not to make this political, but when you're an entrepreneur, you have to play the game on the field. M&A was off the table. Lena Khan had a certain perspective, which was we have to be like free cogs in minority reports. We have to predict who's going to be a monopoly in the future and stop them now. It's like, okay. - This is a consideration to compete with China and everything else that's going on globally. - Four years of no acquisitions. I mean, the people I talked to were in corporate development. We're like, we've been told to stand down. Because it's not where we are, we are free cogs. - But even so, right? It's, you know, with mergers and acquisitions that that skill fine. But if AI does what we know it will do, the companies that are disruptive don't have to be enormous companies. - No, you don't want to have to always raise cash to go out there and-- - That's a good insight, like it is. - Right, 'cause back in the day, with broadcast.com, we bought like five companies, just stock. And then there was always a bigger fish to come along. - Yeah, which we're happy to, you know, because-- - Yahoo, yeah. - Yeah, the famous caller. If you were a clawed employee, if you're at an anthropic or at OpenAI, is it time to start thinking about the caller? - It's right. - It's trying to think about, yeah, pairing the pistol. - Yeah, I call her my stop, because how rich do I need to be? - Right, you know? And if you're able to change your life, if I work for any SpaceX, any of them, whatever, I'd be like, you know, somebody put together a caller for me, you know, because I just need to be protected, save part from my upside, but just cover my downside. - Yeah, and when you did it, you had to like, actually orchestrate that, right? It didn't exist as a product. - No, it didn't. So I had to actually create an index of internet stocks. I had Goldman Sachs create an index of internet stocks and I thought, "Soft." And then I shorted that index, 'cause we had to follow all the lost, and I just had to have that short in place until I was able to do a real caller in the market on my Yahoo stock, and I lost tens of millions of dollars on that short, but I made up for it. - Yeah, I mean, one of the great trades of all time, what do you think the, this wave of capabilities in AI, I'm sure you play with it, which has always been a tinkerer. So maybe what are you tinkering with, and what do you think is going to be the most world-changing, in the next five, 10 years for entrepreneurs, for society? Where do you look at it and go, hey, this is a totally meaningful-- - Let's start with the world. - Let's start with the world. - Yeah, okay. So AI is a lot harder to implement than anybody expected, for sure, right? You can do an agent pretty straightforward, right? You can prompt away, we cheated on tests, we cheated at work, did projects, improved our productivity, 100x, right? All easy peasy, and we just assumed, at the enterprise it'd be just as easy. It's hard, and it's terrifying, and not terrifying for employees, because Dario and everybody's saying 50% of white color people are gonna lose their jobs. Here we are two years later, they said within two years, and employment's still growing, people are hiring, we need more AI-literate people, right? So CEOs have no clue what is going on, none whatsoever, and that's not going to change, right? And so, you know, trying to explain to them that you need to add a hardest to them, you know, all the-- - Yeah. - No chance, right? And if you think about it from an AI perspective, if AI, we're talking about, you know, AGI, and we're talking about taking over the world, if you need to have forward deployed engineers, that tells you all you need to know about AI, 'cause by definition, you should just be able to ask AI to do what I need you to do, and ask and tell me how to implement it, right? Yet here you have Microsoft hiring 6,000 people, right? You have in-thropic open AI, all saying they're gonna deploy to these companies, which tells you AI is hard. And then you have Alex Karp from Palantir, freaking out saying, "How can you give your alpha "to these companies?" When, in my opinion, he's just saying, they're doing what we're doing, right? We're all about forward to-- - Engineers at Palantir, and they're doing the same. - I think it's a great insight because if you're using it as a search engine or you're making your little agent to go to your cron job, okay, fair enough, it's gonna work. You need to be able to have a little bit of systems thinking but when you start putting into the enterprise and this is mission-credible work. - Look what I'm talking about the little bit of systems thinking because that's the second part. Now I'm not trying to (beep) on, hey, I love it. I invest in it. It's gonna be amazing. It's the most impactful technology that we've ever seen and may ever see, right? But try going into cloud or chat to you, PT and saying, okay, I just want you to do this search for Jason Cali-Kownis investments and I want you to do a report and I want you to email it to me every week. - Yeah. - It can't do it. - It can't do it. - And then it says, okay, would you like for me to do an agent that gives you alerts and then you say, sure. And then you have to know how to program because it either gives you a JSON file or it gives you code and it comes out sloped. - Yeah, then you have to not correct. - You have to reiterate. If you want to say, hey, let me load a picture in and you tell me if I'm hot or not. Or is this girl hot? What should I say to her? Or business versions? Great. Right? But AI is not going to take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much (beep) it can't do that regular people need it to do. Right? Now does that create opportunity? - Yes. - Enormous opportunity. - Yes. - Right? So like, I'm an investor in loveable and we were here this morning talking and as I was saying that, and I was saying that people are using loveable to create 770,000 applications a week, a week, right? And that only 30% of their business is in the US and only 20% is engineers. And what's happening is entrepreneurs to answer your question about where it's going, right? If you're an entrepreneur, like he was saying before, there's no better time to be an entrepreneur. He nailed it, right? Because that's where AI is the most impactful. No matter where you are in the world, they have big utilization in Brazil, India, right? If you're in France, US, wherever. You know, like I gave it a prompt. Like I said, because I wanted to see what it would take. I was like, okay, we're going to create an imaginary company that has a button that can record 24 hour video. And then I wanted to be able to send it to me every 24 hours. And I want you to create a patent and a business plan and tell me what licensing or whatever I need. 12 minutes. Yeah. That's why. Like, we've started tons of businesses. Six months to get a prototype, 12 months to launch it. Yes. And then you have to-- And then I asked for a billion materials in this source companies. Like the basic stuff to be that the blocking and tackling stuff that every company has to do, that when you're setting it up and early in its life cycle, done. Done. And even if it's wrong. So what? Because the one thing you and I both know and everybody in the room should know, every single mother-fucking business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong. Of course. Yeah. It's a thought exercise that at least gives you some sort of direction you're going-- Yeah, it's some plan. --but guideline and it's for you, right? But it's wrong. Yeah, we're going to do it. So what if the AI is wrong, if the model is wrong? Because you're going to learn and you're going to iterate. But it's still-- again, all this talk about taking white color jobs is ridiculous when it can't even do the basic [BLEEP] and you have to have, like you said, a programming mindset in order to be able to iterate and figure it out. And even you would think if AI is advanced, as we want to believe AI is right now, all the errors that we get when we ask you to do a project, it would learn from all those errors and even have, hey, I'm flawed. I see you have a problem with this, right? And it failed on these three attempts. Let me just tell you what 97.6% of the other people who ran into this did, right? And then it would fix it for you, it would tell you. It doesn't even do that. It just says failed, right? Or says whatever. Again, AI is amazing. And particularly for programmers, it's game-challenge. And when you have a narrow data set like code or legal-- It's just tax. It's magic. Yes. And it's just math, right? It's good to know that. Basic data, right? But when you want it to do-- when normal people anywhere in the world want to use it for normal stuff, great. You start a business, great. But if you want to start getting advanced, it's like figuring out PowerPoint used to be or Excel, right? You always have to have your Excel expert, your power-- In your company. Yeah, or whoever that you knew, right? Or there would be companies built-- I even invested in a company that slideshare that all they did was have PowerPoint templates that you could download and redo. AI is not even that advanced for what you get to the second level. And so it creates so much opportunity for anybody to walk into a small medium-sized, even large business and say, hey, I understand AI. I have a basic computer background or better. And so all these fails that you're running into across your company bigger, small, I can help you fix them. Because what AI can do once those issues are fixed is phenomenal. But even better, if you're thinking as an entrepreneur to start a business, those things will eventually break. Agents get bored, right? And they drift. Because as the underlying large language model starts to change, the way it was originally programmed doesn't match what the large language model turned into. You want to say it? And so you even wrote something about this, right? Where it's taking more people to manage all this stuff. I'm going all in. [MUSIC PLAYING] Starting a business usually means juggling a bunch of different services just to look legit. Not anymore. With Northwest Registered Agent, you get a complete business identity all in one place, a business address, domain, website, phone number, and more. With privacy protection, built in from day one, don't spend hundreds or thousands on services, you can get from Northwest for free. Visit northwestregisteredagent.com/allinfree and start using free resources to build your business today. I'm doing all in. I'm trying to get the whole firm to be AI first. And even with young people, it's like one group embraces it. And they solve-- I don't know, let's call it-- five or six really pressing issues. The other group is not embracing it. And the difference between those AI first employees and the non-AI first employees, the gap is like, whoa, it's almost like when we got into the industry and somebody knew how to use the office suite in a piece. Right. And then somebody else was like on legal paths. It's like that much of a difference. It's so stark. People who are AI literate, when did they run into a ceiling? Well, what I'm seeing is a lot of tool hopping, which is a good question because they started with OpenClaw. They started building it. It got brittle. What is it? It's still using OpenClaw? Who's OpenClaw? Anybody using Hermes? Agent, OK, there you go. Who's on Clawed Co-Work? And then, oh, whoa, and for FlexiD Computer anyone? OK, interesting. Those are the four that people have been bouncing around on. And what I decided to do is I was just like, hey, token max it. You can each bet a couple thousand dollars a month. I don't care about that. I just care about the gains. And they all wound up going from OpenClaw. All the agents started breaking. It's hallucinating. It's like too frustrating. They started using Clawed Co-Work. OK, great, but kind of limited. And then they started using Lovable. And they built intranets for the venture business that no venture business would spend a half million dollars and 12 months building an intranet. Like you'd just be like, I'm going to put it in Notion, Google Sheets, whatever. And then they just started building more and more software. So I have two or three people who are building software that I would say five years ago we would have spent maybe two or three million dollars a year building this with that outsource company. You just would not have done it. Which means we wouldn't have done it. You would just put the SaaS application that did it. And then we would have tried to like shoehorn it into a SaaS app and customize it. It wouldn't have worked. We would have given up. But how are you going to manage it now once they get there? Well, you know, again, to your company Lovable, which man, congrats on that investment because that company was going to go out of business four times. And I told Anton, every time they say you're going out of business, you add 100 million in revenue. Yeah. 600 million in revenue. And four times 200 million, 300 million-- oh yeah, it's going to be absorbed into the frontier model. You want to invest in the world, right? Yeah. I've got Lovable. I've got Synthesia.io. Oh, yeah. That was the first investor in-- Nice. 10 years ago, maybe, that are just killing it, right? I've got AMI, which is Yolk Koon's world model. Yeah. We haven't even talked about world models versus LLM transformers, right? Because everything we do is built on text and pictures. Yeah. Nothing's going to be text and pictures in 10 years, right? And but what's going to drive it? And like people say, what, hey, I'm so smart. It's going to change everything. I'm like, OK, if you show AI a video of a two-year-old on a high chair with a Cippy Cup, the two-year-old knows if you push the Cippy Cup over the edge, mom's going to come running, and the AI's-- the kid's going to start laughing. Yeah. AI's got no clue what's going to happen. None, right? If you're at a corner blindfolded and you have to cross the street, would you rather have a video-- Would you rather have your phone with AI? But would you rather have a C and I dog? Yeah, dog. I'm thinking the dog every time. Of course, yeah, it's not ready. Right. Yeah, it's not ready. So just think about how far we have to go. Yeah. You know, and all this huge opportunity though. I mean, the world models are crazy because you have videos available on YouTube and just we have the world there. So that's not enough. It's not enough. They have to wear gloves and you're now they've got people in Manila, like doing recipes on something matter.com and they're watching satellites just to take and they do spectrography where they take use of satellites to take videos of everything underneath them and use a spectra amount of even understand all the shit in order to be able to convert it into a world model that will provide algorithms that other world models can use. Yeah. Right. It's just no way that the future of AI doesn't include video. God, I mean, it's it's a huge part of it. And as the inference and the back to the build out of these data centers, as we wonder what's going to happen. People wanting to use more tokens and then these world building and video, man, that takes a magnitude. Yeah. No, like if I'm going to be wrong on the data centers, it's going to be because of video. Yeah. Right. And world models and robotics. We've got all related. Yeah. And then in robotics, you know, it's related, but we still got a long way to go. Yeah. Health, you look great, by the way. I don't know what's going on. You got the red out. What do you got? Red a true tie. What's on the menu? Yeah. What's off the menu? Follow me on Instagram and Cuban. I just, I'm eating better. Not. I mean, you look better now than 20 years ago. Oh, I appreciate that. Thank you. Yeah. I mean, you can't help too, right? The tab, but I mean, you look then and fit and we're getting up there. Now we're not kids anymore. This is definitely going to help AI, all the work being done. And I use it too. Like I invested in a company called Open Evidence. Yes. Yeah. Which is true for medical, right? And I used it and like I have two, I have one supplement I have to take because my eye level is a low and I have to take this one medication. And I was taking them at the same time and couldn't understand why I was having problems. I run it through open evidence and I said, here's everything I'm taking. Yep. Here's everything I'm eating. And they're like, no, you got to do this. You know, when you get up to pee at three in the morning, take this medication. Oh, man. When you get it, you know, no, it sucks. Yeah, right. I was right there with you last night. What's going on? What's going on? Right. And so, you know, but it's for health, it's going to make a huge difference, but it's not going to replace doctors. No. But I mean, it is pretty amazing. Are you on Woop or your Apple watch? I watch. Yeah. I mean, the Apple, the Woop Plus getting your blood tests, just self-directed healthcare. With AI, man, you're going to get some early wins. And then when you do go talk to your doctor, you have it right there. Right. Have it right there. I can't. I tested it. You know, six months, just all up three to six months. Yeah. Right. And I've been doing it for 10 years. So I know all my friends. Wow. And so you were doing it before function and super power. Oh, yeah. Like I was you could go look up Mark Cuban blood tests on Twitter, right? X and I would get into it with doctors like eight, 10 years ago. And just then you're going to need this for your benchmarks. And um, but it's only going to get better. Yeah. That was going to be really interesting. We had this big data moment. And it was like, okay, we're storing all this data, but we didn't have any intelligence against it. Now that's incredible. When Apple is now putting that data, they're doing studies. I don't know if you've been invited to study on your Apple watch. I'm like, well, this is going to get very interesting. The Woop just added blood panels. Yeah. So now your sleep data, your steps, your heart rate, your respiratory EKG, plus your blood work, that's for then if you can get your diet into it as well. Yeah. That's what I watch has in my health, right? Yeah. So yeah, you're just going to get smarter. Yeah. You know, and that'll make your doctor is able to be smarter because 95% of medicine is guessing, you know, because you can't. There's no way a doctor can memorize all the news that happens every single day. You just can't, but a doctor using these tools, having, you know, the empathy and the ability to communicate and the ability to see. Yeah. Right. Because again, there's, it can't see. Yeah. You know, you could have doctor, you know, why am I bleeding? You know, you got a blood, looks like you got a gunshot wound, right? Yeah. Yeah. I was not going to tell you that today. Yeah. When we look at the opportunity here, it's going to be a lot of change, a lot of talk about wealth disparity in the US, invest America, our friend Brad Gersner and our friend, Michael Dow, another great Texan and thanks for welcoming me. I'm enjoying my time with Texas. Yeah. I mean, it's great. I love Texas, man. Texas is fun. It's kind of like that. He's kind of like this though. Yeah. The we have air conditioning. We do have air conditioning. So you, there's a record number of air conditioners coming from China to Europe this summer. You know, I looked at what companies installed them and everything. Oh, you always got to trade. You always got to trade. You're curious, but there's no real sold out. They're all being shipped here from China at the moment. But really interestingly, you know, feels like entrepreneurship, which has been our shared passion for many decades. Hey, investing another shared one, giving people access to public markets, invest America. We have this dueling narrative, socialism in America, capitalism, and it feels like this is the in our lifetimes. You and I are close in age. This is the most fevered we've ever seen it. I mean, we have states, maybe not since the 60s or 70s. I miss that. I was born in 1970. You were born, I guess, 1943, 23, 23. I always joke. I like to. I look good. I look good. We're 19 23. But, you know, it's this is pretty polarized. And what's your take on the social? There's two things here. One, all the DSA stuff is local. Right. It's really easy to be a mandami in New York when you have a budget, you get to control it. And it's local, right? You got elected. You just do and you have to balance the budget and you'll see them Michigan and wherever else. I don't think it's going to be game changing. But the more important thing is the people who are doing this or the people who are best at social media. Right. You know, because the algorithms drive how people vote in the United States. I can't speak for the rest of the world more than anything else. Whoever controls the algorithm controls, you know, the election in many cases. Trump knows how to use it and what what to mandami, you know, what, what is unique about mandami relative to Trump? He's what 31 32 years old. Yep. His whole adult life has been Trump and social media. He studied it and the two together. Yeah. And the guy in Michigan, same thing. So if you're good at AI, I mean, at algorithm, you know, driving algorithms, whether it's flooding the zone or, you know, like Trump saying, they're eating cats and dogs. Yeah. It's just attention. Yeah. And it's just, you know, defining the algorithms because whatever you search for, you get more of. And if they can get you to search for what they're saying and show your interest, then you're going to just get mandami 24/7. Yep. And you'll get the positive size of mandami or if you happen to be on the other side of the aisle and you are, you know, looking at stuff that's counter to that, you'll get more of that. We don't need like, but one other piece, I think, is starting to change that. And that's the large language models. The thing that I think will save us as a world more than anything else in terms of information availability and reducing the information asymmetry as it applies to politics or large language models. Because large language models have to be as literate or in literal and honest as they possibly can't. Truth seeking. Yeah. Truth is a better way to put it. Yeah. So they have to seek truth. Otherwise, you'll lose trust in them. And the last thing, you know, cloud, open AI needs is, you know, they're lying. They're pissed off about this for. Yeah. Their currency is getting you the correct answer and the correct knowledge. Social media's currency is keeping you engaged. Right. It's two different missions. Olderly different missions, right? And so you're not going to get rid of social media. But I think people as they become more uncertain with their politics are going to go more and more and more to large language models. And say, who should I vote for? And the large language model is going to come back and say, well, what do you think about this? What are your interests and this and that? And they'll give you honest answers. Yeah. And if you ask it, hey, what's a reasonable immigration policy? It'll give you a reasonable immigration policy, which is like, yeah, maybe that's a border. And do a point-based system like Canada, New Zealand, whatever it may be, right? Yeah. I've done the same thing and it's impressive. Very impressive. You know, my favorite troll now is like JD or, you know, AOC will, you know, they'll come out with whatever their craziness is on either side of the aisle. And then I'm like, at Grock, please vet these claims. Be as objective and factual as possible. Check your work and show your stories. And then it just replies to them. So I've been just totally trolling Stephen Miller. Oh my gosh. Who, you know, he's like anti-immigration. I'm very passionate about like legal immigration and recruiting great people because we need them. We need them. Yes. If every, Chris, running a basketball team, every time you get jerk, Nervous, he's somebody else doesn't have him on the team. You get Joe and Brunson. It's not on the Mavericks anymore. Now he's on the nicks. Yep. You know, like, well, that's why we come to these things in Europe, right? Yes. Because great talent, right smart people, obviously you guys are geniuses for being here. You know, but, but at the same time, there's a different vibe in every European country and India and the whole rest of the world, right? And I think you're starting to see some entrepreneurs leave us. Yep. To come here and And that's scary. And hopefully, you know, large language models seeking the truth will help educate people away from what the algorithms tell them. Yeah, I think it's like important. You optimistic now. It's been pretty chaotic, but we're seeing such great progress. You're optimistic about, let's start with America, and then we'll go to humanity. Yeah, no, I mean, you know, like every country, we have our issues. Um, ours just have to be kind of insane. Um, it is pretty wild. Yeah. Um, but the good news is, you know, we have term limits for our presidents. Yeah. And yeah, and it seems like 12, three terms is going to be the one for president. I mean, you're going to run. I mean, I hope you do, man, I would love to be your press secretary. And that'll be a bet. We'd have so much fun. We'd have fun. We would have fun. I mean, I'd like to run for a third term, then I'll run. Yeah. Okay, that's good. That's breaking news. I mean, I honestly, like, um, if you think about what we need, I think in leadership executives who can, I think, you know, who are like post money, post needing to make a living. No, I'm not going to go there. Well, and then maybe who are doing it for love of country and maybe some amount of civic pride or. No, I get what you're saying, right? It's just like, you know, in the US, what the Democrats don't know how to actually do anything. Right. You know, they know how to take whatever happens and extrapolate that to the end of the world and the end of democracy, right? Yeah. But and the Republicans, on the other hand, you know, do crazy shit, right? Like they don't care about the people in the country. They don't, you know, there's no connection to people. There's no empathy. And so, you know, we're. But in the short term, but I think as we get past this next, the midterms and the next presidential election, I think we'll get back to normal. Yeah, I think people want it. And you know, the thing that's been really eye opening for me having lived in New York, California, and now Texas. You know, in Texas, we're spent half as much money for sometimes less. I think it's two and two point two times as much. We spent on each citizen in New York and we spent half as much, right? $6,000, $7,000 per person. They spent like 14 or something, 12 to 14. And the quality of life is better. But on the flip side, New York contributes more to the federal treasury, right? Yes. Then Texas does. And you would think it should be the opposite, right? Just because of the business and how things are run. So they're trade off. Yeah, but it's changing. I wouldn't even think about all of us moving to Austin and like Texas. You guys, Mark, obviously for obvious reason, particularly, you know, like the well tax rate is just dumb, dumb, crazy. They tried it here. Yeah, they left work. Yeah, and they did it for about two years in France. Did they? Yeah, I don't know. But you know, when Elizabeth Warren first proposed the well tax. Yeah. And so I found, and she said, well, we have these models and everything. So I found the economists at UC Berkeley. And I said, would you share your model with me or at least tell me about it? He goes, I'm like, was it more than one year? And he goes, no, it was just one year. I'm like, did you do any behavioral analysis to see how people will respond to the changes? Yeah. No. And so, you know, whether it's mandami, Elizabeth Warren, whether it's California, it's showmanship more than reality. Yeah. And I think people are forgetting that people are mobile, you know, like in the US, it's pretty extraordinary. You got Travis Sacks myself. Elon, just a bunch of folks have all of a sudden just shown up. Where I was there first. You were. I talked to you about it. And the thing that's amazing to me is, you know, in California, they won't let you build anything. And then we go to, I come to Texas, I buy a ranch. And I asked the guy like, hey, can I like put a solar farm in here? He's like, on your ranch? I'm like, yeah, here he's like, oh, son, it's your ranch. You can do that. It's like, can I like build like in the cities themselves? Yeah. I do that in the city of Austin. I mean, but just outside of it, you can build. Yeah, whatever. The housing prices have gone three years in a row, housing prices and rents have gone down. When you build a company in Austin now, and I'm sure it's like that in Dallas and Houston and San Antonio, when I have founders moved there, the entire pressure is released. People can own a home. And I was like, wow, is that why do people still go to Silicon Valley? That's like drives me. I think if you're a first time founder, nothing better in terms of soaking in it. But when you're a second time founder, you're soaking in it, but what they don't tell you to end the **** right? Good stuff. I think second time founders have now realized if I build it in Texas or Nevada or Florida, I'm going to just all the talents that I've been to Silicon Valley just sets people's heads so wrong. Yeah. Right? So whether it's Travis, by the way, I've known Michael Dell since we were 22. Yeah. It's nice to do business with them way back when. But just the in Texas is just like build your company and go. Yes. And the valley is like, so are you serious A? Are you serious? Yeah. A lot of distractions. Yeah. 25 years I've been waiting for my nicks. And win a championship. And you played a significant role. No, the spurs, the big, big role they should have kicked your ass. And why didn't they? Why didn't I think it was coaching like experience? Yeah. Because you're up. Put aside the 29 right? Yeah. You're up in the fourth quarter of every game. When be frozen into the back of some guy, Mrs. Two free throws. Dearn Fox goes the wrong way. And a lot of mistakes. Yeah. And you'd be talking about fire and Mike Brown. I mean, it was a, we were concerned when he got hired and getting rid of tibs. Oh my god. But JP was the real deal, right? Yes. He was my Indiana boy OG, right? Yeah. He, you know, he saved you guys. Yeah. And you had Jalen Bronson. Yep. Yep. He left. And that was kind of destiny. His family wanted to come here. That's what he wanted. I mean, I can show you a text where as Asian, you know, text me says he wants his own team. He wants his own team. Right. And I texted or emails you and I said, what's the story of the, this is what we're going to base the franchise on. You said he's really good. He's the real deal. I love he's a great guy. That's the best part about JB. He's just really a good human. I was there for the fifth game, six rows behind the bench. That's cool. And man, I, I just cried. I just cried. It's been so many years and you got your tip to with Dirk. It's so amazing how sports plays such a role in so many people's lives, yeah. Especially now. Look at the World Cup. I mean, it's just like sports has just changed everything. And, you know, like I've been to four World Cup games in Dallas and I hate soccer. Football. Right. Right. I hate it. But just the whole scene, the vibe, the energy, you can't beat us. Like going to a next game, going to a maps game. Same thing. Yeah. And the NBA. Is it peaked? It sounds like it's hard to say. I mean, you know, for fans, no, because I mean, it just grows on social media. You know, I went, I was walking in Paris and there was a basketball store, you know, and had wimpy jerseys and go bear jerseys and everything. And so, I mean, it's just growing globally. Yeah. Is Wembe the real deal? Yeah, he's got, he got humble though. Yeah. Which is good for him. It's like Dirk in 2006 got humbled and came back better. Wembe will come back bigger, stronger, better. Yeah. It's amazing how he went from this like incredibly, I don't know, there was a, there was a magic about him to, no, he's a villain. And he turned into a villain. He was New York and some years, right? And just the circumstances and, you know, San Antonio thought they had in the bag. Everybody, it's like I went to Indiana University, right? And if anybody here who follows college football in the States, like we were the ultimate underdog. We had not had, you know, we had not won 10 games. But we beat more top 10 teams last year than we did in 100 plus years of the program. And so that just changes people's attitude. You've were very much involved in rule changes. And what we're going to get on AI next, but it's just great to talk to you about this since we're both such super fans of the NBA. Seems like the rule changes, the apron and, you know, how punitive it is has created a lot more parity in the league. Nobody knows who's going to win. Like, well, because you have to break up your team, right? Because at some point, okay, see, we'll have to break up their team. That's why they collect all the draft assets because you can't have three max players. No. And if one of them turns out to be hurt or not, what you expected, then you're in deep ****, right? And so the second apron is just a complete game changer. And you have to be so much better at putting together a team than you were before. And you have to get lucky like the spurs have won be on a rookie contract, you know, the the OKC has got no hat jet on a rookie contract. He's not on a rookie contract any longer. So they have to be even more careful. And so it really changes the strategy behind building a roster. So we're going to see back to backs or any more chance. No chance. No, I mean, back to backs, but not what do they call when you have three, the three feet. Three feet. Yeah, three feet. And then back to backs like, you know, if Jay, Jay Williams, Jay Dub hadn't gotten hurt for OKC, I think they would have beat San Antonio and I think they would have beat the nets. I was worried about them versus the next. I knew we could beat the spurs, but I was concerned about that. No, you could buy new. Come on. We beat them two out of three of the games in the year. We spanked them. I knew it would be like a, I said, Nick's and six. It was Nick's and you guys barely beat the hawks. And then, oh, come on now. We were tweaking the offense and we just had to get cat to buy in us. Anyways, let's talk AI. Let's talk. But it is so great to be a champion. God, it was-- Where's your ring, then? They didn't yet. No, I'm going to get it at the ring, sir. You're going to be a champion. You got one. I always was like, man, I got to follow cubes and get a piece of a team. You don't come, you want to buy a team? I always wanted to get a piece of the next. And now it's like, my net worth doing great. The value of the team is disconnected from reality. I mean, my only chance is to call like Elon and be like-- Another great part about the valuations is it's not driven by attendance. It's not driven by wins or losses. It's driven by subscriptions to streaming services. And then it's going to be interesting to see, because it used to be-- we looked at ratings TV ratings. And people said the NBA was underperforming versus everybody else. Now the next play, obviously, there's some pen up demand there. But what really matters is the number of subscribers peacock gets, ESPN gets. It's the rating for ourselves. But it's more subscribers. I mean, I literally had to subscribe to, like, I think one or two more services. Well, that's the whole point, right? And did you keep them as the question? Yeah, I'll keep them sure. Well, there will be churn. If there's churn, who knows what happens with valuations? If there's not, valuations keep on going. Wow. It's so crazy. All right, listen, there's your 45 minutes with Mark Cuban, the one and only. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The current AI-driven market is different from the dot-com bubble; it's more concentrated in private capital, with high valuations for pre-revenue companies and massive borrowing by market leaders.
  2. AI implementation in enterprises is harder than expected, requiring forward-deployed engineers and constant iteration, contradicting predictions of massive job losses.
  3. The speaker sees enormous opportunity for entrepreneurs using AI tools (e.g., Lovable) to rapidly prototype and build businesses, but notes that AI still struggles with complex, autonomous tasks and requires human oversight.
  4. There's a risk of overbuilding data centers and over-investing in AI infrastructure, similar to the fiber bubble, as technological breakthroughs may reduce power needs.
  5. The speaker advocates for more IPOs to provide currency for M&A, noting that current IPO reluctance and regulatory hurdles hinder strategic acquisitions.

Summary:

The discussion compares the current AI wave to past bubbles, highlighting key differences. Unlike the dot-com era, today's bubble is driven by private capital, with VCs and PE firms heavily investing in pre-revenue companies at inflated valuations. Market leaders like Google and Meta are borrowing heavily to fund AI infrastructure, risking a private credit crisis.

However, AI implementation in enterprises remains challenging; despite hype, it requires significant human intervention, with companies like Microsoft hiring thousands of forward-deployed engineers. The speaker argues that AI is not eliminating white-collar jobs as predicted but instead creating demand for AI-literate workers. For entrepreneurs, AI tools like Lovable enable rapid prototyping, allowing startups to build software that previously required millions of dollars.

Yet, AI agents often become brittle and require constant maintenance. The speaker warns against overbuilding data centers, drawing parallels to the fiber optic bubble, and advocates for more IPOs to facilitate M&A using stock as currency. Ultimately, AI presents immense opportunity but is far from autonomous, requiring human expertise to bridge the gap between potential and practical application.

FAQs

It shows bubbly behavior but differs from the .com bubble, as companies now have revenue and traffic. It may destroy many VCs and funds going all in, but won't impact most people.

If AI price-performance improves power efficiency, many data centers built now could become underutilized, similar to dark fiber after bandwidth breakthroughs.

Going public provides stock as currency for acquisitions, avoiding expensive debt. It helps companies buy disruptive AI startups without always raising cash.

AI is much harder to implement than expected. It requires forward-deployed engineers and constant iteration, and basic tasks often fail without programming skills.

No, employment is still growing and AI can't handle many basic tasks. It creates opportunities for AI-literate people but won't cause mass job loss as predicted.

AI lets entrepreneurs create prototypes and business plans in minutes, though plans are always wrong. It's a great time to start a business and iterate quickly.

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