Make These Fantasy Football Trades NOW Before Week 4 (Ep. 2226)

This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hello, everybody. Welcome to Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Warmeley, joined as I am every Monday by Tara Roberts. We are talking some moves to make this time ahead of week four, almost a month into a season hard to believe. Reminder for everybody that all of our consensus rankings each week and the tears can be found at fantasypros.com/rankies. You can also check out our consensus rest of season overall rankings, those get updated throughout the week. There are a few of those in there already here as of Monday morning, so I'll be referencing some of those throughout the episode here. You've got five moves for us, Tara. Where do you want to start? Let's start off happy, right? We're going to buy, we're going to go shopping, we're going to buy Parker Washington. It doesn't have to be a sad buy low, it can just be buy because maybe you need to do this before it becomes too expensive to get in. Last week, we talked about buying Garrett Wilson before he goes off and what happened? One off. This is not 100% the exact same situation because I do think we still have some time before. The true go-off scenario happens because we're still in the realm of tough matchups for Jackson Bill, but I wanted to go ahead and just get ahead of this one so that we can start making moves because this is a good time to buy in on Parker Washington, not a buy low, but rather just buy before the schedule opens up and we get that aggressive uptick in volume. We knew the Jags had a sketchy season to start, a sketchy start to the season on their way with Cleveland, Denver, New England, Ups, Cincinnati, Next, Philadelphia, Houston, and then their buy week. After that, everything opens up for the most part with the exception of like a second matchup against Houston. And thus far, we have yet to see Trevor Lawrence exceed 29 pass attempts. He is maxed out at 245 passchards in week one. So there is more volume to common. So they've been in lopsided matchups one way or the other blowouts. So him being effective with touchdowns has really kept this ship alive from a fantasy perspective in terms of the past game. And in less than ideal passing scenarios, we have seen Parker Washington with solid performances from a fantasy perspective, but no slate breaking performances. And if you're on fantasy football Twitter, obviously you've seen the hype, but your league mates might not be seeing the same hype that we see online every single time that Parker Washington makes a miraculous catch. So with Jacobi Meyers having a nice little breakthrough game as well, this is a good time to buy in on Parker Washington. And I don't think we've seen the ceiling yet. And you want him for what is going to happen when Trevor Lawrence can really open things up. I'm really glad you mentioned him, and it's a great shout because when you first put his name into the show plan for today, my initial thought was, okay, so we're doing like a real buy high as opposed to a by low, which I really like doing because I think that's often the more important skill in trades is it's sort of easier to identify a by lows, identifying the right people to buy high on or sell low on conversely, I think it's really smart. But then I went to look at his game log and just kind of get his stats in front of me. And it's like, okay, like he's definitely been good and it's been getting fun usage and he scored double to get fantasy points in all three games, but it hasn't been that mega star breakout from strictly looking at the fantasy points. And I think that I need to sort of step back and remind myself that the people I talk to every day and the industry that I'm in, is it the reflective of every league out there? And so for me, it's like, oh, yeah, Parker Washington is a star. We all talked about him all summer. He's clearly very good. Just like said, forget it. This guy's amazing. Like I did a show with Erickson. I think he said Washington is his water. See where eight rest of season I want to say and then but then I step back and I have to remind myself like a lot of the people in a lot of the leagues that I might play in that aren't industry leagues. It might not be that apparent and that obvious that this, you know, superstar break out is here. He was wide receiver 12 in the consensus rest of season rankings. Even that feels a little low to me for based on my expectations and like, Nico Collins is ahead of him. I don't know what's going to happen. Like how long that hamstring stuff's going to linger is a flowers. Obviously, it looks really good. He's only played like a game and a half this season, you know, pukas ahead of him. Like this, you know, growing hip stuff has been confusing. So like, I think there's a real case where something like quad receiver eight or nine does make a lot of sense. He's not being valued that way in the consensus rankings. I don't think he's valued that way in more casual sounds, you know, like I'm being dismissive. But those sorts of leagues where people aren't as hardcore into it and paying that close attention and on fantasy football Twitter and all that stuff that we are. So I think it's a great shout because I'm not even. He's a buy high, but I don't think he's like a buy super high. I don't think he's a, you have to give up the farm for him. I think you have to pay up and give, give appropriate market value, but I fully endorse doing that. And I think you're totally right. It's only going to get better from here. So yeah, that's a very long-winded way of me saying like, I think this is spot on. And I'm glad you picked it. Love it. Love it. Let's go to the next one here. Who's the next player to buy? It is definitely a buy-low, it is going to be a buy-low on Malik neighbors. This is not an endorsement of JJ McCarthy in any way shape or form. Of course, when I do this, I like to get ahead and I make these decisions on Sundays. So my decision to buy-low on Malik neighbors happened before the JJ McCarthy trade. But if anything, that probably helps lower the cost here. Looking at James Winston, though, last week was a bad look for James. The week before was a bad look for James as well. But I can give excuses as to why he looked bad. In week two, you're coming in cold against an angry Rams defense that obviously got embarrassed in Australia. And that was the true version that we saw against the Giants of the Rams defense at its peak form. Then they had Tennessee, obviously a layup matchup, but a weather issue in that game. So when we're looking at what James has done, you can make the excuses for why this has been subpart in a rather conservative past volume and that they haven't really had a true lighted up scenario. James said, you know, you could say what you want, but it's not as if it was drastically low completion percentages for him, yardage is the issue, and obviously when we look at the upcoming schedule, that's when things start to get very interesting. The upcoming schedule is Arizona, Washington and New Orleans. I find it hard to believe that the plan is to immediately throw JJ McCarthy into play a player who has not played a full NFL season in a new system to start has not been able to gain the rapport with any of his weapons. So this is brand new. I do not think in any way, shape or form, they're going to throw him out here immediately unless something goes completely sideways with James Wednesday. We got to remember Jackson Dart is done for the season, right? So this is not just a play for right now. This is a play for long term. So they've got to give him some time to adjust. And the main remaining schedule, if they do have to make that flip to JJ McCarthy starting, the remaining schedule is overall average. No real issue. The playoff schedule is overall friendly. James can get hot and the number one target is very clearly Malik neighbors or perhaps Harbaugh might have the Harbaugh's in general, maybe that's the secret sauce. There's Harbaugh's for JJ McCarthy, well, bring him to success fantasy managers because of the situation, the ambiguity with the quarterback situation might be willing to just part ways at a very low price because they're scared and they just want to get out. At the end of the day, Malik neighbors is the number one target in this offense. That is not a question. I like Isaiah likely, but the wide receiver with the most upside here is very clearly neighbors. So you're buying low into a ambiguous situation, but if you don't have to spin that much, that's okay. Do you have any examples of what you think you would maybe need to spend to get somebody like neighbors? It's so tricky because he's so talented. He had the injury stuff. Nobody really knows what to make of the quarterback situation right now. I think like you said, the reputation of this quarterback group is largely quite negative right now. So there is that ambiguity. What do you think is an appropriate price to go trade for neighbors at the moment? So I think we are in a running back crisis right now. So if you drafted well at running back, you are solid. And perhaps you have a, and this is, this will sound crazy, right? But again, you got to remember, there are wide variety of leagues and people that are desperate at running back. So I think you could shoot as crazy as trying to upsell a Jalen Warren or perhaps your league, you need something of actual value. Maybe you don't need a Chuba Hubbard in your starting lineup and you go sell a Chuba Hubbard, perhaps a David Montgomery as well. So I think tilting a running back and trying to pursue that high end, high target volume for Malik neighbors could be a good route if you've got the running backs to spare. Just quickly on the giants too. Do you think that McCarthy is going, like, we were talking on the tailgate earlier actually when this news broke and we were trying to pinpoint when we thought he would start. We kind of thought week five against the commanders. He's played well against them before when he was Minnesota, obviously not that he had many very good games, but that was one of them. We kind of looked at that as maybe when he would start not quite this week, but starting next week. If that's the case, do you see him, like, basically starting the rest of the season or do you think this will be like, hey, it's a couple of games to, you know, sort of audition. And then we'll see from there, maybe it goes back to James. Maybe it's something else. Do you think this will kind of be his starting job this year and see, hey, like giants, if he's bad, we get a high pick and if he's good, then awesome, we can trade him. What do you think? I think it's a back and forth because obviously they're optimistic and they're probably looking within their vision and saying, okay, we've got the leeway. If we can get this ship somewhat on track to push within our own division because there's a lot of question marks, right, around it, like, literally everybody but except one team. So perhaps if we can get our defense strong, push forward and just right, you know, keep the ship steady, then maybe we can be competitive. So I think there won't be. this long-term dedication to we have to make it work with J.J. McCarthy. I think you give it a go if J.Mans comes out and lays another egg against Arizona because that should be a much more friendly or match-up, right? They have dealing with injuries in their secondary as well. So if he comes out in Arizona and does well, hey, we're going to keep him maybe through the by-week, we give J.J. some extra time. They've got a Houston on the schedule coming up, so maybe you hold until there's a little bit easier. Or if J.Mans comes out, yeah, you could see him as early as Washington, but I don't think there's going to be any loyalty. You could see it back and forth. I think you have a more player to buy, Tara. I do. I have a buy on Josh Downs. They were doing the happy buys this time. I think there is still value here, despite the ample amount of targets that are going his way because of the perception of the cults. It always helps. And the perception of Daniel Jones. You get a nice little Daniel Jones discount in there because he's been rather mediocre up to this point. We can acknowledge that, but it's not as if he's thriving, clearly not a whole ton of running. But hey, the offense has to push forward and it pushes forward with him at the helm with the combination of Jonathan Taylor. They just got their first win. And it has the push forward because they've got a defensive issue. The defense is struggling. So there is volume to be had here. The price is reasonable for towns because of those issues that you have with the teams. And he is the foreseeable wide receiver. He's the wide receiver one for the foreseeable future, which quite frankly might be the entire season. We don't know what is going to happen ultimately with the Alex Pierce injury. This is something that is a recurring issue. You already had surgery. So are you going to try and play through it? Are you going to work through it? If this team is a clear loser and they're struggling and they continue to lose games and this is just a defunct season and they have to rethink everything because all the moves they made just didn't quite work. At what point do we really see him? So it's possible that Downs is the first look in this offense moving forward. He has had a subpar week one. Obviously Daniel Jones was getting back into it. But the past two weeks have been high target games with nine targets, 11 targets resulting in just over 70 yards in each game. So very nice volume. But no real like massive breakout. So when you're looking at it from just a fantasy perspective, not the actual game. So he's a guy that is essentially producing very high floor games against two very tough secondaries in Kansas City in Houston for all the issues that Houston has had. It's still a difficult matchup. So for him to come out and produce like this in terms of the targets and the receptions. Wonderful. The schedule is going to open up. It's going to provide more opportunities for ceiling games and then we can buy him now before the true upside actually hits. Where is he ranked for you rest of season? He is well, he's over 32 in the early consensus after this week. For me, he is wide receiver 30. Okay, he's always just been a player that I've liked. So I have to five myself not being overly enthusiastic about him because I'm like, oh, am I just biased because I just want to see him do well because I've always liked him. So I'm hoping that there's a real breakout to come this season for fantasy. Find out what your players are really worth with the new fantasy pros trade market values report compare player values from actual trades across thousands of fantasy leagues against fantasy pros expert consensus values quickly identify players to buy low sell high or target in your next deal with values for half PBR dynasty and your synced teams make smarter trades using real market data at fantasy pros dot com slash markets that's fantasy pros dot com slash markets. All right, Tara, give us a sell. Yeah, it's good to the sells. They're not as fun as the buys. We're going to sell on Aaron Jones, hear me out on the sells because they always, you know, they get people going, but I just don't see how this man physically holds up with the workload demand that they are putting on him. For the past two weeks, he has been on the field upwards of 80% of stamps. He is a 31 year old running back. Love him. He's former packers, Packers fans. So I love him. But he's a 31 year old running back who has not been used traditionally in this capacity. He is coming off a season where he had 150 touches played 12 games. None of them went over a 71% snap count. That was a high, high moment for him. Ideally, they want this to be a split backfield, right? But they can't, unfortunately, hear with the injury. And you can't predict injuries for players, right? But you can head your bets. And you were selling high on a guy that you probably did not intend to be your RB1 anyway, who physically cannot handle the level of workload that is being asked of him and still has a running back that is lurking on IR that will return in the near future. So yeah, selling Aaron Jones is a valid move. And again, we've just had so many unfortunate injuries at running back. This is now at the time to try and make a move on those guys. And if you've got these guys that you, you know, hey, you can start them because they're adding value to your fantasy lineup, but you don't necessarily need them. Make a move and pivot to another position of need for you to better your roster. Jordan Mason had 15 carries in a touchdown in week one. This was never meant to be a sole Aaron Jones backfield. And unfortunately, he's just the only back on roster that they can trust right now. So we're inching closer and closer to a by week. And Jordan Mason's return. And you could argue like, hey, they'll coming matchups. You've got some good ones. Miami, right? And then, you know, hey, Miami and then sell high. But again, you're getting closer to the by week. So how much value are you going to be able to dangle our dangle out there as a little carrot? It's fine. I was going to say like on the one hand, I'm like, maybe you wait until after the Miami game. Try and get one more big like I because you'd have to imagine. I'll probably have a big game against Miami. But on the other hand, that could maybe be the piece that helps you trade him. It's say, Hey, I'm going to give him to you. And if you give me something a little better return, you I'll even give you the Miami week with him and give him to you now. And so that I could see kind of going both ways in terms of maybe you wait a week to sell or you say, Hey, like if you're the other managers in your league are sharp and kind of are paying attention to stuff like that, so all right, listen, like you want the dolphins week. I'll give it to you, but you got to pay up for for it if you're desperate. So I think that's a good one too. One more player here, Tara. We're also tried to sell high on Jalen Warren, another player that has come into a hefty workload due to injury. And I know the rebuttal for this one. Obviously, there's multiple rebuttals that you can make like, you know, Hey, if Rico Dottel's injury is serious, right? Because we don't know, maybe it's a little bit more serious. Like we have more of a realistic thought process in terms of timeline for Jordan Mason. But with Rico Dottel, there's probably a little bit of ambiguity there. So what if you sell off Jalen Warren in this injury continues for Dottel and Jalen Warren becomes an unquestioned RB1 on a weekly basis. And then also, you could rebutt that hey, no one's going to buy Jalen Warren based off one performance. Again, running backs are dropping like fly. So if you're going to make a move now is the time to do it. And you likely didn't draft Warren to be your RB2. And if you did, then this doesn't apply to you. But if you have depth at running back and you need help at another position, you can absolutely shop him around and put your team in a better position to succeed. Because there are buyers out there. There are people that are willing to risk a Jalen Warren performance. And maybe they think that Aaron Rogers is finally coming around. And this is a good version. And you know, hey, upcoming schedule overall, maybe it's not so bad. So yeah, there's a there's a legitimate reason. I would rather sell high on Jalen Warren in the hopes that this high functionality that we are seeing out of the sealer's office is not actually what it's going to be moving forward. And this again, it isn't not a desperation move. You don't absolutely have to do it. Because the schedule ahead isn't really daunting, but it's an opportunity for you to get ahead at another position. He is two spots in consensus for us to season rankings ahead of Gideri and price. Would you trade Warren for price and just take an upside swing on that? Or is that doesn't make that make you too nervous? That makes me too nervous. I couldn't do it just because at least with Warren, he has the trust of his team. Right. So I can argue, you know, hey, if Dowdall goes maybe comes back this week and then he goes down in a month. And again, I have the same upside of all the carries to Jalen Warren. But we have seen that Gideri and price doesn't technically have that upside. So I love him and the talent, the fumbles and just I don't think that's right. But sadly, I don't know if we should trade into that situation where they are fighting to the nail not to play. On the other hand, maybe Mike McDonald learned like, oh, sitting him for having a fumbles a bad thing because we lost the game not having an explosive running back on the field. What about on the other sides of Jalen Warren, RB 23 and consensus, price is to RB 25 right ahead of Jalen Warren is tray Van Henderson and RB 22. Is that actually going to be interesting? And that's a roller coaster, but there's obviously like a degree of talent there. And, you know, the schedule lightens up a lot. And you would think Drake may would eventually start playing a little bit better. You would think fingers crossed, but I'm with you 100% that I'd rather trade out to a better talent opportunity because I know when 20 touches goes his way, I know exactly what he can do. So yeah, for sure, 100%. I would make that trade out. Well, go ahead and wrap things up there right at the 20 minute mark. Thanks everybody for checking out this short form episode for Tara. I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasypros.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok @FantasyPros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/ FantasyPros. This is an "I Heart" podcast. Guaranteed Human.