Majority Mark

[music playing] Greetings, you happily, miserable accursed, particularly miserable this morning, if you're Pierre Paulier. It's early here with Reed, Delorean likeness. We held off recording the pod this week until Tuesday, about 10 hours after Terrebonne was called, giving Prime Minister Karni in the Liberals week of all three by-elections and a majority government. But we'll start with the Liberal Convention last weekend in Montreal, then the by-elections and relatively Maryland Gladue, the latest in a long list of floor crossings and Jen Geerson has a pretty funny call on about that this morning, if you get a chance to read it. Our curse clipping is from Katie DeRosa at CBC News. David Eby in the NDP pumping the brakes on amendments to the declaration on the rights of Indigenous peoples act, a missed caucus pressure, and finally Mr. Pincent and our hey-use to round things out. How is everybody? Doing good. Well, it's so afraid. Are you afraid? It's funny. I thought maybe they'd get a majority last year. I knew for weeks, particularly when Gladue certainly went, majority was coming, but it still feels like a real punch in the stomach when it happens, when it's actually declared. Majority government. And I woke up this morning angry at my own movement for the situation we're in, that the fact that we are now in a position where the true to corny era is going to be longer than the Cretchen Martin era when we had to divide it conservative parties. Our merger was supposed to solve all that. We were not supposed to be in the situation. And here we are now. It's going to be, you know, potentially 2029 is the next election. That's 14 years of liberal unbroken rule. And it's incredibly frustrating. So I'm not great this morning. That's where I am. There you go. She tossed out a ball cap and head to Coachella. That's the way to blow out steam these days. I just need a red solo cup. I'm going to sit on the curb. Fear relax. You know the ball cap on backwards. That top of beer balancing on his leg. Eating some ramen noodles next to Katie Perry. What's not to like about that? Okay. Moving his best life. No. It's quite a strong tradition for what Kerni was doing this weekend, but it's odd. Yeah. Well. What? I don't know. I don't like it. I don't know. I know I'm going to get shit for that. I don't like it. You don't like what? Trudeau's thing or Kerni winning a majority. I don't know where we are right now. I like the majority thing. I'm less crazy. Trudeau can do whatever he wants. Don't give me wrong. Who gives a shit? And certainly why would he give a shit? What anybody thinks, particularly me. But I don't know. I don't think he does actually. Chronicleing. I don't think he does. But just I don't know. This whole like chronicleing me. I'm going to look. I'm going to be 24 years old. I can just I don't know. There's something kind of like. It's like he's being true to himself though. He's been like this forever. Why would he change now? Yeah, there's there's there's there's. There's a lot to do that. It's been very quiet. I don't know. I feel like I feel like this man has suffered enough. Just let him let him live his life. Let him go to Coachella. Suffered enough. Justin Trudeau has suffered enough. Yes, but a terrible life he's led. What an awful miserable cursed existence. He has but never got a break. Never got a break that guy. Never ever had anything handed to him. But listen David, I also think that it is I salute the dedication with which all Kerni loving liberals like to kick the shit out of Justin Trudeau just to underline. Just to underline how different of a government they are. But I think we can declare it mission accomplished that part anyway. Especially as of last night. They definitely look different this weekend. Interestingly Scott, why do you think it is? Okay. That there is no backlash within the liberal party to the fact that there will never be a tribute to Justin Trudeau at a liberal convention. Did you do a video? For having one. Three elections. And saving the party. And you know, I mean, can you imagine like I mean I can understand it is strategic. I mean, you would have wanted to have had a tribute to him. You wouldn't have wanted one at the convention that elected Kerni because you are trying to demonstrate change. You don't want one now because you are still trying to demonstrate change. But imagine, imagine if we had tried to deny Kretchen a tribute at the 2003 convention, the party would not have stood for that. There will be one and there should be one. And you know, let's put things in perspective. I'm joking around about the ball cap and stuff like whatever. That's just my like anti-selfie kind of like stick. But what this guy has done politically was astonishing. And it ended. It was a Game of Thrones Prime Minister ship, right? It was that you know, the show seemed really strong until the last couple of episodes. And then it went so bad that people try to put it out of their minds. But it will come around, right? We'll do a rewatch of Game of Thrones. Trudeau will get a tribute at a liberal convention. And he will be recognized for the political achievements and for guiding the country through COVID. I, you know, this isn't the moment maybe to put his time into historical perspective. But I really, I look at him as if Pierre Trudeau had lost in 79 and not returned. That's what I think Justin Trudeau's time in offices. I think those are sort of equivalent things. Impressive political achievement. And you know, some policy achievements, but not the mark that, you know, maybe that others register. But even as I say that, I sound the Minimists and like a dink. Like the party was dead, man. Is you and I both know the party was dead. And he came along and a la Trump and his Christ like video. He laid his hands on the party and it was healed and rose. I begin this week on the thought I ended with last week. Sovereignty begets success. Our presenting sponsor, tell us believes exactly that when it comes to AI infrastructure. A $760 billion economic opportunity. If a consistent and strong definition of sovereignty is applied to the feds by Canadian policy. The top tier of that definition would give the highest priority to companies that are end to end Canadian controlled and headquartered here. That's the kind of sovereignty that maximizes Canada's potential. Because it invests in our own infrastructure and economy for the long term. And just like any top tier investment, it brings a dividend. A sovereignty dividend for companies just can't match. Starting with jobs. Sovereign sectors create jobs that pay significantly more with a higher concentration of skilled stem roles. Those jobs are not transient, rising and falling at the whim of some foreign home office. They stick around with a multiplier effect that creates more jobs downstream in Canadian supply chains. Then there's ROI. Data from the Canadian Space Agency shows that for every $1 the government spends on sovereignty procurement. $3.60 is returned to Canada's GDP. If we rent out the bulk of our AI future to foreign hyperscalers, we miss out on those dividends. Not that the Silicon Valley giants don't have a place in all of this. In the kind of tiered system of sovereignty tell us is advocating for. Companies who have big operations and make meaningful investments here participate in benefit too. They're part of the strategy. Just not the foundation for it. Make the sovereignty investment. Get the sovereignty dividend as it should be. You know, he may never get a tribute though to pen because. Currying in his speech at the convention. Started with Laurier and went through every liberal prime minister. And told us something about what they had done to build the country. Except for McKenzie King who governed for like a hundred fucking years. Right. He left McKenzie King out of his list. I wonder what he's got against McKenzie King. Didn't he also didn't mention Mr. Turner, but I mean that was. Well, that's a little different. Mr. Turner government for two months. McKenzie King governed for 20 years at a war. 22 years. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. That's going on. Any of you paying attention to the convention? I had formal the whole weekend. I was watching. I mean, I mean, it just looked like a big party. Certainly from the outside, it felt less liberal, you know, partisan branded, necessarily than just a big wide celebration. So yeah, I don't know if that was your take inside, but. Certainly looked that way outside. Impressive delegate numbers for sure. Inside. Here's my tea on it, which was well, it's exactly as you said. It's a party. The party is so. The people there. So young. So diverse. And everybody in a great mood. So there's all that. But it's not a convention. It's a rally. Right. It has none of. of the components of a convention as I understood it when I got involved in politics. There is no serious policy process. There is no serious constitutional debates about the party. There are no elections for executive that people care about that animate the convention. There is no accountability from the executive to the party. The sessions are all designed to tell the party what the government thinks, not to tell the government what the party thinks. And it's really quite evident that what used to be an organization that saw itself the liberal party as the defining organizational body of which the legislative branch was part of but not dominant of is gone. And that the liberal party is now constituted as an effectively an electoral machine for the executive branch of the party. Terrible, a considerable thing. But that feels like it's been true for a little while. It, well, I think it really got accelerated. There was some constitutional changes in the 2000s but it really got accelerated under Trudeau when they turned it from a party into a movement and took away all that stuff. But I mean, when you raised with people the fact that they're used to be cabinet accountability sessions at liberal conventions, they look at you like you're a maniac. I mean, now I'm returning to bashing on Trudeau but I do think that's a legacy of changes that Trudeau put in. And I think it's a legacy of a tone and production emphasis that was introduced under Trudeau where these conventions became showcases as opposed to their more traditional conventions you talk about. I would say this though, I don't preclude the possibility that that kind of convention could return and that kind of those sorts of party dynamics might return because Karnie, let's say this on the morning that he secured his majority since I'm just a constant past the Mistom Raincloud, will not be Prime Minister forever. At some point, there would be who replaces Karnie, who will be the next liberal leader and or Prime Minister depending on where they're at at that point. And he's, it's possible. I'd sort of look at now. It's possible to look at it like you looked at it in the 1960s and 70s and say, well, actually, or even the 1984 race and go, well, actually, there could be a handful of very competent people that might run for the next leadership and that might create competitive polls within the party and different dynamics. And then that could get reflected in a push to have executive elections and have competing slates run against another and to change some of the constitutional functions of the party. So all those things could come back. They're not gone necessarily permanently. And I know that 99% of people listening this couldn't give a rat's ass, but I just don't think it's a permanent change necessarily. This all sounds so foreign to Fred and I. Why? Well, the conservatives in the NDP, of course, are so different in terms of the role of conventions, the level of interest within the membership, I think, on things like policy, executive elections, is very high. So it would be sort of unthinkable to do away with those things in a convention format. That's a lot of quality. Isn't that because when you're not in power, the party is the principal instrument through which and the legislative caucus are the principal instrument through which political action gets expressed. Well, in part, but I also, I think it's a reflection of genuine ideological battles within both of those parties. There is no ideological battle within the liberal party. There's just Mark Kern. Right. So when you're winning elections, like you are, there's-- you don't have those types of discussions. How do we make ourselves better? You're already winning. There is no going in there. How do we improve and how do we do things? And typically, what our other parties do is we talk about how do we get the grassroots more engaged, how do we get more ideas bubbling up? That's what leads to the-- I'd say the differences in the conventions. You know, in 1982, the liberals had been in office for about 14 straight years. And Trudeau had been in office since 1968. The National Convention passed a resolution that can demie him at his office for their cynical political manipulations in their writing of Spadina and called for democratic reform of the liberal party. That's inconceivable right now. Right. That was in 1982, what happened two years later, the biggest wipe out at the time of the liberal party, right? It was heading towards something. You were going off a cliff at that point. Yeah. That stuff tends to appear on the way down. [LAUGHTER] Yeah. They're on the right down to the bounce back. [LAUGHTER] All right. All right. So majority, as of last night, the three bi-elections, plus the gladu floor crossing, Scott, tell us what you make of all of it. What are the implications of this majority and how it has been achieved? Before we get to the implications of it going forward, I think it is important to note that it's never happened before in history, that this is an unprecedented circumstance. I think the reason for that-- I continue to harp on this point-- but I just think it's so obvious that we sometimes overlook it. We're in a wartime circumstance. Trump has effectively declared war on Canary's economy. He talked openly about acquiring our territory, 51st state, painting the stars and stripes over our land mass on maps. And so I think that has created a dynamic within the country, a kind of wartime mentality among much of the population that has led to all of these dynamics. Like, why can Maryland Gladu a social conservative from Southwest or Ontario join in the same breath in a couple days prior to Dolly Bagham, former NDP deputy leader in Ontario all joining in the same caucus? And why is it-- She seems caught by her in Scarborough. She does. That was an impressive looking rally at the end of their night. But you put all those things together. I just think, and you look at the approval ratings, and you look at where-- I think all of this is being driven. Obviously, by this sense of wartime mentality, the rally round the flag impulse that it tends to occur, that benefits an incumbent leader. Karney has owned that corner. And Pollyette was undecided on how to treat Trump initially a year ago, and it lasted for a long time. That robbed him of some of this ability to compete for that. And Karney has a unique resume. His manner is so much in contrast to Trudeau, to Trump, to Pollyette, all of those things. So that we've gone over and over and over again on this pod for a year and 15 months now. But I think that's what's led to it. And I think one of the biggest implications, I think, is making certain that you remember exactly why you're there if you're the government. Like, don't get distracted. Don't get pulled off course. Cusement renegotiations are coming up. Trump's aggression in the Middle East has led to gas prices, skyrocketing, and Prime Minister's announcement this morning with respect to the excise tax on gasoline and diesel. I just don't lose sight of the thing that brought you there. Keep focused on that. And when I listen to the Prime Minister's remarks this morning before he announced the gas tax, that's what I heard, to be honest with you. That appeal to national purpose or partisan political stripe that all works. You can say, well, that's cynical because he's locking in his advantage. But of course, he's locking in his advantage. But that is hitting the right beat for a bunch of Canadians. That's why he's here. And I think he's got to be really focused on it. You can't get into a world where you say, well, now that I have a majority, I contend to experiment on a whole variety of policy files and go in different places. Keep the agenda focused on what brought you there. And the last thing I would say is, don't wait until 2029 to call an election. I don't care if you have a majority. You can't call it one this fall. You don't want to appear cynical. But you cannot dare deal with an election that doesn't include Trump. And you just don't know what that world looks like. A Trumpless carny is not a political entity that we have any idea about. And I wouldn't wait until 2029. And over the course of the past year, Kanye has strengthened. Trump has weakened. And that starts to make you think about, what happens when this dynamic changes? People talk about the honeymoon. My attitude is, it's not when it's a honeymoon over. It's when this war over. And I think you do want to have an election sometime before this war is completely over. So I think we can all probably agree that food banks are a wonderful thing. Carrying for the most vulnerable among us is a Canadian value. Pretty confident I can say that. Unfortunately, food banks have evolved from a charitable service to a necessity. This year, there were 2.2 million visits to Canadian food banks in a single month. That's double the usage rate recorded just six years ago. Right now, one in four Canadians don't have access to the food they should be eating. 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Food banks across the country are located in the very communities that C.N.'s vast network encompasses. Anyway, look, this isn't some effort at virtue signaling. C.N. wants Canadians to know about FoodBanks Canada and to dig deep and offer help. Hunger weekends a nation, physically and spiritually. Visit foodbankscanada.ca, lend a hand. It will enrich you and all of us. Jordan, pick up on this sort of the unity government argument that Scott's making there. When you look at the results in the in the two Toronto biologstries, and you look at the NDP and conservative numbers, how can you not conclude that there's really just no fight against the government right now? That there's just no desire even to make a statement of any kind. Like nobody felt from either the opposition parties the need to go out and register as a statement that they want a different government. Yeah, I mean, I think of course the appetite for any kind of instability in Canada right now is low. That's just a truth. And I think the bi-elections in particular in those two Toronto writings, there wasn't a strong push to send a message to the government. That said, I do think there is a distinction in last night's results between the NDP and the conservative. So the conservative vote collapsed across the board, but especially severely in terabund. But the NDP actually doubled their vote share in university rosedale. And they leapfrogged the conservatives into second place in that writing. Now, obviously, you know, want to read too much into that. But to me, that says that at least in those in those urban Toronto writings, you maybe do have a pocket of some progressives there who are a little bit unhappy and who made the effort to go out and cast a ballot in a way that they that they hadn't even a year ago. So I think that the message is probably grimmer for the conservatives coming out of this. There wasn't, you know, Scarborough, like that's a that's a diverse working class suburban writing. You would expect to see them. I think do a little bit better. So diverse writing is a diverse writing in which one party gets 70% of the vote. Yes. Also, Dolly Begum is a really good candidate. I think we need to say that. Like she is really good. And so I think a lot can be, of course, attributed to her there. But if you look at that writing, like that's the type of writing that the conservatives should arguably be doing better in. So I think for sure, the message of these by elections is overwhelmingly reassuring for the government, but it is very threatening for Pierre Paulier. And the time that is now unfurling before Pierre Paulier, the potential of years before an election is maybe even the most dangerous thing because that's enough time for caucus to decide that they don't want him to stick around. The argument that we could be going into an election anytime. So we need to stick with this guy. We can't get into the leadership process. Like that is gone now. So this is a moment where I think he is very vulnerable. And that time will mostly work against him, I think. So Fred, where were the votes? Like, I mean, if you look in the polls, I mean, Bernie's strong, but there's a lot more opposition to him than was reflected in the vote last night. And, you know, given the circumstances, where was the conservative vote last night? It stayed home. I think it's as simple as that. These were the two Ontario seats are very, very safe, super safe, liberal seats. These were not contests. You weren't going to go there and cast a ballot for Prime Minister in terms of a general election where you would. So I think it was a completely different mindset than a general would be. And provincially, these are NDP seats as well. These are not conservative seats. So I think the numbers would just be suppressed that way. Interborn. It happens every time there's a two party competitive race. The third and fourth parties always get squeezed. And that's what happened there. I was not at all surprised to see the concerns drop as low as they did in terribone. And in general, I think that would go back up significantly. That does not mean we don't have very serious problems as a party. And that Paulie have has big issues as a leader in that he's going to have a hard time. But I just, when we look at these by-election numbers, I think we got to look at the history of actual by-election and note that, you know, there are reasons why these numbers drop to this. And it's not necessarily because of the leader. So let's just take a second on what Paulie should do with these results. Because Fred, I mean, at a minimum, I would have to argue. At a minimum, I would have to argue that it does not appear that the conservative voter shares Paulieev's anger about the carny government. They did nothing to express that. They were perfectly content to stay home and watch safe liberal seats, stay safe for liberal seats. They didn't weren't motivated to go out and say anything about that. So is he best placed to continue to oppose it the way he's opposed it? Or should he play some sort of longer game that positions him for opposition to really take the knife to them a couple of years from now, but sort of gives them a little space right now when even his voters seem inclined to give them a little space right now? He should be doing exactly what I've been saying for the last year. It's exactly that point. Give these guys enough rope to hang themselves. There's, you know, no election in the foreseeable future. This is, as Scott said, a wartime prime minister essentially that we have a Canadian's view it as. Carny has big major expectations to meet, particularly now that he has a majority government. He now has no excuses to get anything that he wants done done. So I would sit back, obviously do your job as the loyal opposition and keep the government to account. You have to keep out there doing things, but I would focus on trying to lower my own negatives if I was Paulieev, but also setting up for that law, you know, if the election's two years away, if it's in 28 or three in 29, make sure you're ready for that moment and that you can point to any failures that Carny had. But right now he's got the runway. Carny does. Let's see if he can take off. All right. All right. Let's talk about, Scott, I want to ask you about forecrasking for just a minute. Can I just say one thing on Paulieev? Yeah. Yeah. I just want to reiterate this obvious point. The Carny levels did not win a majority government through a general election, which had his bi-elections. Instead, it was one through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them. That's the first two sentences of Pierre Paulieev's statement in response to the majority breakthrough last night. When you ask the question of why is Carny, why is Paulieev anger than conservatives appear to be why? I think the factor that has to be considered is human nature. Since this guy was, and I just think we have to think about the psychological trauma this guy's been through. I know I sound like a dork, but like, come on. Since he was in grade seven, he imagined being Prime Minister. For long stretches of months, he assumed that it was going to occur and then it left. And in the year since then, after he promised people on election night, just give us some time. It's going to be a two-step thing now. We're going to inch forward. Instead, he watched all about actually unfold to the benefit of the Prime Minister. And I think the reason he spoke the way he did last night, the way the way he's responding is that he does feel bitter. He feels extraordinarily hurt and upset. And I think he's reacting with anger. So when we respond with our arguments, like, well, yeah, but conservatives have had floor crossers in the past. So sure that you understand the hypocrisy of the statement. I think we're missing the point, which is that this guy is deeply, deeply bruised. Nevertheless, he has a job to do, or he's going to lose his job. And right now, you look at the vote and the party membership and you look at the fact that there's nobody to rival him. And so I think a lot of conservatives say, well, I guess I don't know. I just play for time and see how it unfolds. But those voters were demotivated last night. There was no reason to bother to vote if you were a conservative any of those three by elections, which I think in some ways, what Fred is saying. And I think that there's, there is a real, real infection settling in on the leadership of Pierre Paulier. And it's not an acute immediate thing. But people think he's a loser and he's behaving like a loser. Because when you say those kinds of things, that is like when I yell at my kid because after they lose a hockey game, he goes up and you else at the ref. It isn't the fucking ref. It isn't the voters. Okay, it's not their fault. They weren't stupid. They weren't duped. Right? People are voting for carney. People are leaving your caucus for carney. The approval ratings are for carney. You got to figure out whether you can fix yourself. And I'll be honest, I don't think he can fix himself. Well, I think actually, if if you're around him, what's extra troubling right now is that he has tried over the last two months to fix himself. There's been a concerted change in his communication in his strategy, in what he's doing, and where he's going. And his numbers are continuing to sink. And they're continuing to lose people. There continues to be internal chaos. You know, we didn't really talk about it, but his directive communications left at the same time that Marilyn Gladew also left. So there is like things are not good over there. And the changes that he's brought over the last couple of months, which I imagine were quite difficult to walk him to for his advisors, don't seem to be having an impact. So for him now, the question is like, where does he go next? Like, is there another personality transplant on the shelf available to him? I'm not sure. This guy's not going to be prime minister. He's not going to be prime minister. And I think in their hearts, a ton of conservatives and certainly his caucus members know that, but they don't know what to do about it. Right. I don't know if I'd fully agree with that. I think it's definitely the path. It's incredibly narrow and rocky, but at the same time, if the economy goes to shit, like everyone's predicting it's going to go, if affordability skyrockets, things can shake up. And this majority government, it's one two seats, like it is slim. We could end up in an election much quicker than we think, particularly some of the people that have now entered that caucus, who I'm very familiar with and how difficult they can be. This is not a sure bet either. So I wouldn't rule out the possibility. Again, I wouldn't necessarily put money on it, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he will be prime minister someday. Two trillion dollars. That's trillion with a T. I've quoted that Megan Ember before on a behalf of our sponsor, the Canadian Climate Institute. It's the record total investment in the last year alone that went to clean technologies in the global economy, according to data from MIT and Rodeum Group. EVs, solar, wind, batteries, heat pumps, and more. Triple the amount from just seven years ago, in sectors like electric power, manufacturing, transport, and industry. So clearly, this is all more than a fashionable trend. And it represents huge opportunities for investors. 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Versus what makes a transition investment, electric arc furnaces in the steel sector, for example. The Climate Institute is invested too. They're supporting the taxonomy's development on the research side of things, providing the council with evidence-based insights and recommendations. More at climateinstitute.ca. Scott Gladio was controversial at the convention. Liberals were in the corridors, which is by the way where everybody was, because there was no point being in a session. I'm lined up with the mic. So I can say, great job. That's what you'd be doing, right? No, the convention happened in the hallways and a lot of talk about Gladio. A lot of people asking me if we would address this question. Is there anybody you would turn down? Well, sure, I suppose. I'm sorry, Dr. Mangalad, there's no room. But I think, and Karnie, I think, for understandable reasons, was a bit defensive about this and saying, hang on a second, right? We do know she will vote with us on critical issues like if gay marriage were to come up or something like that. And then she reinforced it. They had discussed that. She doesn't even believe in gay people. I understand. I'm not putting on my go-marillion teacher. But I go back to my wartime thing. This is where I think the dynamic really, and people go, oh, well, she wants to be in government. She's frustrated after 10 years. I'm sure, that's a factor of it. But none of that would be permissible if it wasn't for the context that we're in. This wartime circumstance. And I really think like a 1917, I've edged into this comparison a couple times. But I think for the second time in our history, we were watching the assembly of effectively a union government. 1917, Robert Borden tried to get word for Laurier to join him. He couldn't, the Liberals, you know, under Laurier, remained outside of the union government. But he was able to attract enough people from enough parties in the face of crisis that he was able to put together a union government. Now, he's not putting Maryland, Gladion, and Cabinet. He's not doing that. But I do think we see this kind of quiet assembly and attraction of people from all parts of the political spectrum. I think it's temporary. The world won't last forever. This philosophy and this mentality and this psyche won't grip Canadians constantly for years and years and years. But for now, she's a positive simple of a unity government. I am. I am arguing that. And I don't just say to you, it's not I don't think she would hurt it. I don't think she would. You are doing the most here. Like that was I'm not I'm talking. This is what I honestly think. Like I don't think she would have been attracted to the government if it wasn't for where we are. And I don't think the party would have wanted her if that's not where they were. But you know, this is these are weird days, man. It's a union government. It really is. You know what? I've never I've experienced floor crossing a number of times. Obviously, people coming to my party at the federal and provincial level. And it's always great. And I've seen people leave and it hurts. You know, in Scott Bryson crossed I was a young Torian of a scotian and seeing him broke my heart. He was someone that I thought was a, you know, a mentor of sorts. And you see all this happening. And just by the way mentioned for Scott Bryson, the Scott Bryson lifetime turned that writing. Yeah. From a conservative stronghold to a liberal stronghold. Yeah. So it does work sometimes in terms of electoral longevity. But I'll tell you the scene, Marilyn Gladio leave though. Wow. That was amazing. Thank you. I was excited to see her go. She is going to be a problem long term for the liberal party. It's a short term win. I do believe within a six months to a year we'll be talking about it. Some of the issues she will be causing in that caucus. I don't think the vetting was done properly. I'd understand. Look, if you can poach him, poach him, if you can get your majority, go do it. But holy smokes be careful. So two questions for your Fred. First of all, what's your answer to the question? Would you turn down anybody? Yes. Absolutely. Who would you turn down? Well, who's like that? What kind of, what would be a just qualified thing? Avi Lewis, someone who is a radical extremist lefty. I don't think it would be welcome in a conservative party. Right. Okay. All right. That's fair enough. The following message is brought to you by Unsmoke Canada. Not all nicotine products carry the same risk. Smoke-free alternatives like heated tobacco, vaping products, and nicotine pouches. Don't burn tobacco or produce smoke. While not risk-free, evidence shows they have the potential to be significantly less harmful than cigarettes. Yet Canadian regulations restrict access and limit communication about these alternatives, keeping adult smokers in the dark. Sweden has accepted this science, embrace smoking harm reduction, and driven smoking rates below 6%. Canada has the tools to do the same, but it requires political will. It's time to align regulation with science, expand access to smoke-free products, and empower Canadians to make informed choices. The evidence is clear. The opportunity is real. Canada can be smoke-free. Learn more at unsmoke.ca. My experience with floor crossings has been that they need an attractive place to go, and that can be, and so there's often some conversations about what that will be like. But before or it starts Fred, they need to want to leave. It doesn't start with the desire to be to that you're more a I'm happy, but that would even be better. It starts with I'm really unhappy like Scott Bryson, right, with the merger with the merger of the parties and the sort of reform takeover. He felt his party had left him. So, but four crossings are really difficult thing to do. Jordan and I were talking about this on cross time. You check up the other day. I mean by the time you become a member of a parliament, you've spent almost a lifetime in a political party. That's mostly who your friends are. That's mostly what your social circle is. That's mostly what you do is hang out with those people in various circumstances. That will all end and end hard and fast. And you're like 55 years old and you've got to make new friends and build a new social circle. It is not something done likely. So I would suggest to you that these four people really wanted to leave. Look, there's no question you four people are wanting to leave. They're from four very different distinct parts of the country and very different politically in terms of their their ideology. So yeah, there's no question that this wasn't it wasn't that Karni was just a big bright shining light and they were moths attracted to it. There was something chasing the meta that has there's no question. Right. Hey, can I do you think there's more? Yeah, what? Sir, what? No, no, no, Jordan, you go first and I want to ask all you guys a question. I because there's something going on that I don't get. I think there's more. And I think if I were the liberals and I had more, I would have wait. I would wait until the by elections were over and the majority secured in order for them to go over precisely to be a bit of a counterpoint to some of the arguments the conservatives are making. But I really think glad you you know, I agree with Fred about this. Like she is going to be a problem. And I had a laugh when you were talking about vetting Fred because like you don't even need you don't need some shadowy vet file guys like a Google search would do. Like she has been like around the block on every single controversial issue over the last decade. And on the fringe side of it, right? So the liberals I think were fully aware of who they were getting and they took her in anyway. And I think it's a mistake for two reasons. The first is that it looks in a way that the other floor crossings haven't it looks cynical. There is no fit between Marilyn Gladio and the liberal party or at least the liberal party as expressed by the values that Mark Carney has sort of talked about when he occasionally does these things. There's no fit. So that means that she's just there for one reason and one reason only and that's that's political power. She's there to stand when Steve McKinney stands. Exactly. And so that's problem one because that is that is not good for Carney. It goes after the core strength of his brand, which is that this guy is not a politician that he's somebody who is above all this Iki, Yeki political machinations. So that's problem one, but problem number two is a mathematics problem. This is a very narrow majority. That means that Marilyn Gladio is very powerful in that caucus now. And I will foresee that there will be occasions over the next couple of years where she is going to be an important vote, a vote that may not be on side. So I think it's both an optx problem and a pragmatic problem for the prime minister. And I have to wonder like if you have more floor crossers, well, you're well advanced in conversation with more floor crossers who might be a bit of a better fit was the juice really worse the squeeze for Marilyn Gladio probably not. Ontario is at a turning point. Huge investments in nuclear and clean energy are creating a once in a generation opportunity to transform our energy and manufacturing sectors into a global powerhouse. And Bruce power is right at the center of it by adding up to 4,800 megawatts of new nuclear generation to its existing site. The Bruce C project will help position Canada as a global leader in energy and manufacturing while supporting jobs and economic growth here at home. Find out how Bruce power is powering progress at Bruce power dot com shot with your date. Well, I'm just not as fretful as everybody is about this. Like I think Marilyn Gladio is a cook. All caucuses have cooks. And you know, she's a cook in a way that becomes difficult two years from now. Then you'll just say, okay, back you can see there's an independent or whatever like I do. And people will go on TV for a day and say, ha ha. See, the seed was planted two years ago. And like I just don't know why it's that big a deal to be honest. And I think that the country is permitting this in a circumstance where it might not otherwise. If it was just Marilyn Gladio and we weren't in this dynamic with the United States and Trump, I think then, you know, there'd be a lot more political accountability about it. But right now I just think the government is getting a pass from Canadians to say, do you have to do to pull it all together? We would like stability. And I just don't think there's a punishment right now for any of this stuff. I'll go to the government for those that are considering crossing. But here's the thing I don't get. And I think I I'm I genuinely am angry with myself because I feel like I'm I think I'm stupid about this. I get what Jordan just said about it. There's a bunch of other floor crossers. Why the government want to hold on to them. And then you try to have five more people or nine as they say. And you go, ha ha. See? So this isn't just dirty room back deals. This is a genuine title way. This is a cascade of people, Paulie, Evan, you're in complete crisis. But I don't get why those people were like, why would like if I had been in discussions, if I'm deep in discussions, why wouldn't I've gone before the majority? What's the pay off of going after the majority? Like I just don't I don't get that dynamic from so so I'm skeptical about these news stories because right now in a diamond in a situation like this, like rumors are a dime. It doesn't is tons of beer talk going on. Are there really nine people that are thinking about coming over? And if so, why would they have timed it this way? It doesn't. So is there a political rationale for timing at this way for it? I don't buy I don't buy there's timing at all. I believe when you have someone ready to cross the cross, when you have that deal, exactly. You don't sit on it. You don't wait because they get cold feet for all the reasons David said you got a fucking move. Yeah, you don't. The morning of the morning of Balinda Strahanics floor crossing. I set you up David Tim Murphy was with her and I'm with John Webster, their campaign co-chair and Murphy calls and says she's getting cold feet and Webster says rub them. I'll tell you what I was there. Not not not not for the foot rubbing, but we went or we spent a lot of time with her the day before that initial and saw the prime minister next morning. We're all supposed to get together gather at 7 a.m. at the shadow. We're going to meet chat. She had one person with her and so we're all going to go through this and then we get into this and then we're going to take it to the national prosecutor and do the big unveil which eventually occurred. But we're sitting in that room, me and Tim and Webster and I can't remember who else maybe Mark Antwistle like us was there for her. No, whisper was it with you. It was just you and Webster was with me. Okay, so it was me and that's right. So it's me and Tim just sitting there and at whistle and he's like checking his phone coming out and he goes, "Well, she's just going to be a little while. She's going to be a little while." I'm telling you like an hour and 20 minute passes and we're sitting there drinking shitty coffee over and over looking at each other. Tim and I are ready to jump out the window where like this thing is going to go to threads right in front of us. Webster has that exchange with Tim. All of which is to say and when she did come in by the way, she'd been through a gasoline night. All that backdrop of the people read about with her and Peter and her talking with various people who she can fight it in, trying to urge her to not telling her that she would be a pariah the rest of her life. I mean, it was a harrowing personal experience and so all of which is to say Fred is right. Like you don't go, you know what? Like let's just push pause on this and like we're gonna wait for three other political developments and we'll come back to this in three weeks. It never would have happened. So when you got the fish on the line you pull them into the boat. So David, I have an example just to go back to your original question of would you ever say no to somebody. The NDP one said no to somebody. And you told this story last night. Yeah. So this was yeah, I was around for this. So this was in 2014. So Maria Morrani, she'd been a block MP and she was expelled from the block caucus for opposing the charter of values and she'd gone on to sit as an independent and she wanted to join the NDP caucus and at the time, Malkair said, well, you know, you can sign a membership card but you have to you have to run first. So she did. She said she joined the party but did not sit in the caucus and then she ran for the party in 2015. So there you go. But that's that's just you guys. Well, allowing floor crossers. That's not a well, but it's it's somebody who wanted to cross and the answer in the immediate was no. Right. Yeah. It's another good example of the other. Triumphant time of Malkair's leadership. It's Jordan. Jordan. What is going on? 14 was a head of the first to Jordan. And often the first to Malkair as both an exemplar of strong political judgment and of core NDP beliefs in the theology. That's another podcast, guys. [ Laughter ] I'll tell you what, somebody would have to be one hell of a bad person for me to say no if they wanted a cross at a time of political sensitivity. They would have to show up with a machete and blood dripping off of it. I'm not fucking sure. Even men would be too. Yeah, I'm sure they would even get away. I think you'd pretty much just be like, "I just washed your hands over there. Come on." [ Laughter ] I could be. All right, I want to do our clipping. I think this is a pretty good photo version. Their clipping comes from Katie Derroza of CBC News. The NDP government is pumping the brakes on its plant to suspend sections of the declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act. As sources tell CBC News a growing number of NDP MLAs were concerned with the proposed changes. Premier David E.B. said the legislation will not be introduced this week as planned. And when it is introduced, it will not be a confidence motion as originally declared. E.B. cited opposition from Joan Philip, an Indigenous leader in NDP MLA for Vancouver Strathcona as one of the reasons the bill is being paused. She expressed to me that she could not bring herself to vote for this legislation. E.B. told reporters, CBC News has learned that more than 10 NDP MLAs spoke out against E.B.'s plan at an emergency caucus meeting, Saturday. CBC News asked E.B. of Philip was the only NDP MLA to raise concerns. Oh, God, no. How do I put this? A hundred percent of our caucus, which includes me, hates the position that this court decision has put us in, the Premier said. We are deeply uncomfortable with the timelines, with the conversations we have to have with Indigenous leaders. CBC News has been unable to reach Philip, not been able to reach Philip for comment. Her husband, Union of BC Indian Chiefs President Graham Chief Stuart Philip, told reporters on Friday that she does not support any tinkering or meddling with Dripak. So Fred, looks to me like this issue is taking over BC politics. It's taken over the conservative leadership race. It is obviously dominating E.B.'s caucus. What's your take on this issue? Yeah, and on E.B.'s caucus, he has a one seat majority. We're talking about tight majorities here federally. That's a tight one there. There's a few green MPs that support him, but not in a supply and confidence arrangement. So anything could flip there. And if he doesn't, you know, he talked about bringing these amendments in and then making it a confidence vote, which means we could have been heading to an election very soon. Now he seems to have backed off not only on confidence, but even on the amendments themselves. And so he's backed when they brought this in the NDP brought it in with unanimous support of the legislature, right? The BC Liberal supported it too. I think it was the intention was a symbolic gesture, but the courts have ruled that no. Like a land acknowledgement. Right. Exactly like that. And now the courts have ruled that no. This is legally binding. And basically the concern many have is that this is given veto to indigenous groups on any kind of resource development or Kremlin. It's a hot, hot issue that has taken over the conservative race every, I'd say every candidate there seems to be aligned on where they are on it. But hot, hot topic for EB. Clearly they are aware that this is very problematic. He understands it needs to be fixed, but he doesn't necessarily have the political muscle within his own party to do so. So this, this is going to potentially really spiral here politically in the problems. Jordan, don't I look at this issue. I say, first of all, unless he somehow takes this off the table, this is going to kill EB. Like if people have doubts about the title to their homes, you are in fucking trouble politically, point number one. Second thing is this could be disastrous for the reconciliation project generally across the whole country. Absolutely. Yeah, I think I have so much empathy, I think for the situation that EB and that government have found themselves in on this issue. Because as Fred talked about, this was legislation that was unanimously passed, that was done in the spirit of taking reconciliation seriously. That was done for all the right reasons that built on decades of work with the indigenous community in BC. That stuff is important. And it has now become such a toxic issue that it is absolutely politically kryptonite for this government. And I think there is genuine anguish. You can really see genuine anguish within the NDP caucus from Joan Philip from others about some of the choices that they feel pushed into making because of the court decision. And I think I see a couple of things happening that I think are very challenging for EB. They are in a situation where they are trying to protect the province from more litigation. And that is led to the response being very legally forward. And not maybe a lot of conversation that meets most people in BC where they are, which is to say that most people in BC are very supportive of reconciliation. They want to do that, they want to do the right thing, they want to take it seriously. But they also want to be sure that their private property is still their private property and that there's not any threat to that. And so that's kind of where most people are at. But but EB hasn't yet really been able to tap into that. And then of course to have a BC conservative leadership race going on at the same time has also played a role in this because you have candidates in that leadership race really like upping the rhetoric. I would say into a pretty toxic place, not just about drippa, but about reconciliation in general, like you're starting to see real kind of weaponizing of that issue within that leadership race in a way that I think is pretty dangerous for the project overall. So it's a perfect storm. And it's one that has absolutely the highest stakes for the BC government right now. What's your take on this whole thing? I find this issue overwhelming like I really find it's it feels like it's so big. I don't even know how to think about tackling it. So you know, I'm not from BC. I'm not deeply experienced in the indigenous politics. I'm not a lawyer. And I look at it and I just see nothing but worry. I'm first of all, I'm puzzled by it. I'm puzzled by the ruling and I'm puzzled by the implications. I don't understand how I thought everything was curtailed by reasonable limits. And this seems like an extraordinary asks, yes, six lawyers, you get seven opinions, all of which is going to breed. Real anxiety on the part of people in British Columbia who are as you say, David, going to be wonderful. Well, then what the hell is the answer? Are you telling me is my house, my house or not? And if you're in government like E.B., you are the crown. You have an obligation to then move forward in way that protects and insulates against forward damages and a sweeping level for the province. But if you are in an NDP government, you also want to be seen to be committed to the project of reconciliation. It's an impossible vice to find yourself squeezed in politically. And like you guys, I watch this and I say, this has to like, I don't even think of that as a potential. I think we're all moving down the track. You know, Paulie was out there the other day talking about this issue. And it just seems to me that, you know, it's going to rip the NDP apart. It's going to turn the conservatives is going to force the conservatives into not force the conservative is going to take the conservatives into a corner that is almost absolutely anti reconciliation. And I think people are going to be scared of the whole project and inch away from it all across the country. So I wish some large judge would just walk into the room and go, hold the phone. I have the answers. Here's the reasonable solution. But that's not happening. And it's not going to happen. This thing just it scares the living hell out of me. Yeah, you know, Fred, you started off by saying that it was you thought the original legislation was sort of symbolic in a way. And is that what's really happening here is that bullshit's hitting reality. Like I mean, I have never sat through a land acknowledgement where I didn't wonder, why are we doing this? And what is the significance of this and what is really meant by this? Is it just complete bullshit in which case, what are we doing? And if it isn't complete bullshit, what does it mean? Yeah, look, as Scott said, I'm also not an expert on indigenous policy and how this is all playing out. But yeah, the understanding of DRIPPA was it was, you know, we're aligned with the UN Declaration, what the BC government was. And again, all parties, the BC Liberal supported this unanimous. So this was not a just a one off thing forced in by a by one government. But when you put things in law, when you pass an act, that's law. So we talked with a judge doing it. I think only a legislative fix is possible here once they make it an act. And again, I don't know exactly what's in the act that is problematic. I don't know how it's worth it. But it's clearly clearly dominating the political climate in BC. And it's going to be incredibly disruptive until this is somehow managed. And even then, I don't even know if anything could be put back together after this. So Jordan, I mean, it almost feels like the legislation has to happen because the premier himself said that unamended this will now lead to what he described as a tidal wave of litigation. Primarily about resource projects and resource development, which is also something that his government's now been trying to promote and get behind. So what are the politics of this case? Can the NDP win an election in BC if they have alienated badly the indigenous community? - Yeah, it's very, it's, the politics are very hard on this. And I think that what you are hearing from the indigenous community in BC is a real sense of betrayal of breaking with the government. That relationship on their end feels very fractured. So somehow, EBI has to find a path forward that protects the province from litigation that would be unsustainable, but that maintains some of that trust and that capacity that was built really, and it should be said painstakingly. Like I don't agree, for example, with the idea that the adoption of drip of the air, it wasn't purely symbolic. Like there was, like that was the culmination of a lot of work. And I think a good faith effort on the part of many players to really try to align things in BC with the principles in that declaration that do include things like free prayer and form consent. All that stuff is really important. But right now it's like, it's a sense of betrayal within the indigenous community that has to be addressed by EBI, I think, to be able to move past this. It's very challenging as well, because of course he set it up to be a confidence vote and has now had to back off of that. And I think that the conversations that are happening within caucus are going to be so key for how this goes forward. And if they're able to find a way that is respect, because of course there's not just Joan Philip, there are two other indigenous members of the legislature in that caucus. And this is going to be very, very hard for them. So he has to find a way to thread that needle to repair that relationship, well doing, whatever, you know, you can only imagine that the Attorney General is warning about what needs to be done to protect the province. And that is a very tall order politically. - Right. Scott, to me, I'll just have to say something card aversial. God, how far can I just kill it? Kill the mic, kill the camera, break the internet. Scott, it feels to me like since Trudeau got up and said, we support every element of the UN Declaration side unseen. We talk about the betrayal aspect that Jordan talked about now that the indigenous community feels. I feel like as a country, we've been saying some things we don't really mean. And maybe those things are coming home to Roos now. - Well, I agree with you. And here's where it leads me. I try to imagine, you know, as unwieldy and as overwhelming as this issue seems from a legal standpoint, what the implications are for property and so on and so forth. I also can't help but think that, yeah, I'm getting busted on my bullshit. Like if I'm going to sit in a non-feral land acknowledgement and put an orange t-shirt on my child, and then I can imagine an indigenous leader turning to me as we're having this discussion and saying, wait a second, motherfucker, you were all for my rights as long as they weren't enforced or they were meaningless. But now that you learn that the consequence of your head nodding is that all of this is up for grabs, you suddenly are a little regretful about championing my rights. And that, I presume, is beyond Zora's allocation and so on and so forth. I mean, that sense of betrayal has got to be deeply, deeply felt and imagine if it was operating in your own caucus and your EB and saying, yeah, but just please go with me for a moment, Tristan, can I ask you could you just abstain? And someone's going to look at him and say, how the fuck could I abstain on a question of this sort of fundamental nature? So that just scares the bejesus out of me, this issue, I keep saying the same thing. - And David, I do think it's also worth saying. It's an issue not just because reconciliation is the right thing to do and that, I think we should all be invested in that. But this is also a problem for Karnie because a lot of the major projects that he is looking to develop absolutely will hinge on indigenous approval and participation. There is no shortcut around this stuff. So the sense of betrayal that is being felt in a lot of those communities about changes in government commitment to reconciliation absolutely will have a material impact on his ability to move forward on some of those projects. - Yeah. Fred, any last words on this? - No. I think I've exhausted my thoughts on it. This is a other than I do think this is going, the next election in BC, this is going to be the ballot question. - Right. And you know for the indigenous community, for all that we've just said about how, it's not the matter of principle on the, they're in a bit of a catch-22 because of the fuck E.B., they get Carolina Elliott. And as I read her materials, she's going to be pretty hard-line on this. Yeah. - Yeah, I don't think there's a lot of good choices for anyone. - Yeah. All right, Mr. Pincent, would you please assemble the accursed, wherever they have dispersed for our Hay Use? - Ladies and gentlemen, please return to your seats. The Hay Use are about to begin. - Fred, what do you got? - Elections Canada, Hay You to Them for actually holding a good vote in Tehran, where they were able to make modifications and change the ballot to a write-in. And you know, it was a reasonable hour. It wasn't, you know, as early as I would have liked it. But it was reasonable and they brought in more volunteers to do it, of course. I do need to give a, off the reason why we had an election in Tehran Bones 'cause they fucked up the envelopes to begin with last year. But they did do this well. And I'm also grateful, of course, to the House leaders, Steve McKinnon, for bringing in the legislation to fix this. So these election terrorists, the Long Ballot Committee, could be finally put out of our misery with their noses. - Exactly, that's where you're gonna be putting it. - Yeah, exactly. - Jordan, here. - I am going to give my Hay You this week to the crew of Artemis II and Jeremy Hansen and that whole trip to the moon because guys, I don't know about you, but when you consume the amount of political media that I know we all do and that many of our listeners do, the world can seem like a very dark place. And we are living through just such a period of theatrical violence and cruelty and stupidity from our neighbor to the south that it can feel really depressing and overwhelming. So it was such a bomb to see just these wonderfully competent people do a hard and amazing thing together with good humor and cooperation. And I saw somebody online called it "Competence Porn" and it was like, "Yes, we need that." (laughs) So that is my Hay You this week. I think that's something we all societally needed to see. It was really wonderful. I don't know about you guys, but my kids were so into it. They loved seeing it. It does matter who goes on those types of missions and that was really meaningful as well. So it brought a lot of joy to what has been overwhelmed really a pretty dark period for these types of things. - So you know Jordan, I know a lot of you youngens may not know this and some of you don't believe it to be true. But you know, 80 years ago we landed on the fucking moon. - Oh, I saw some of your new fucking members that said, "That's true." - You're a new fucking man. - You're a new fucking man. - 80 years before we had on Fred, - That's really different. - That's really good. 80 years before we landed on the moon, we were running around with horses and buggies. So it doesn't feel to me that the technology's really fucking accelerated in the last. I thought it'd be hard to be excited about it. Honest to Christ. Really? We can fly there. We used to land there. - Man. - Jesus, what a rain cloud you are. Okay, well I'll go next because believe it or not, I had the exact same hey you as Jordan. I was gonna say the same thing. Yeah, miserable prick early. - Sorry it's Scott. - I'll just-- - I'll just-- - Over here in our joy. - I was thrilled. I could take my eyes off of it at the launch. I loved all the updates. The splash down. Sam and I watched each other. - Aw, wait, it's so smooth. - My youngest, we had, oh absolutely. And I'll just add two little bits of color on top of that. Really my favorite moments. Okay. One is Jeremy Hanson is obviously a star and there'll be schools named after him. But there's another Canadian involved, Capcom, right? The person who's in communication with a capsule for so much at the time. Jenny Gibbons, right? A female Canadian astronaut. So you know how these things work? She is next man up. I don't know she'll be on Artemis 3 or whatever, but she's going to be going to the moon, David, at some point. And chances are she's gonna be one of those people that may find herself walking on the moon. And I think that is crazy exciting. So watch that space. - I think it's safe. - Well if you like that, I don't-- If you like that, I know somebody who's working on something called a steam engine. It's gonna really revolutionize these. - I don't like, I mean listen to you. She's so morosey. next watch. You got final records behind you and you're missing NASA scientists for not being contemporary. My favorite moment of the whole thing was the contrast between Carnies call to the capsule. It trumps call to the capsule. Of course, like, Trump is going out, hey, you know, it looks nice. You know, we can like me and look put a hotel on the moon soon and all this and like, and they're all just saying they're silent. I think, what do we fucking do with this? Right? Like they just look like, yeah, okay, sorry. The airlock just lifted and we have to like, jettison ourselves. And Cardi, like it was just, it was a blast. Like you'd see that they were all enjoying it and he was enjoying it and Hanson. So again, you know, it overcame Trump, which, what can you say about these days that could overcome Trump and it did? Now, if you want to appear human, just stand next to Trump. It's a good way to do it. My, my, my, he goes out to Jordan's friend, the Heed Nenshi. Hey, what the fuck is going on? I saw a pool that your 20 points down, 20 points behind Daniel Smith, Jesus Christ, right? Like you were supposed to be the star. You were supposed to come in. You're supposed to deliver a calorie. You're supposed to solidify Edmonton. What is going on? Like you either need to read to or revamp. Everybody tells me you're tired and you look uninterested in your own job. Anyway, the rest of us in the country have a lot riding on that fucking election. And so NDP and Alberta get your shit together. That's my hee you. All right. Thank you. All of you occurs to watch your listen today. Thank you to our sponsors to make this possible. Fred Jordan Scott. Thanks for hanging out with me this morning. It was fun. See you all next week. We'll have more. Take care of yourselves. [Music]