1124: Mailbag - Jadarian Price's Debut, Michael Mayer's Outlook, and More

This is an I Heart podcast guaranteed human the new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. It is in the name NFL daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day all season long. That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me Greg Rosenthal and an all-star cast of co-host as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL daily on the I Heart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it. The league's newest podcast, the NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and here from your favorite players to join me. And an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episodes of the NFL report Monday through Friday, all season long. Listen to the NFL report podcast on the I Heart radio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyson in this episode 1124 of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the mental bag questions this week, I want to remind you guys to check out LateRound.com. We've got brand new offerings this year for members, a much better interface for the weekly and rest of season rankings, new metrics in the data dump, and so much more. You can learn more about becoming a member by heading to lateRound.com. The first question this week is from Chris from the members hub. It says, "JJ, now that we got to see Giderian Price playing an NFL game, what are your thoughts about his fantasy outlook moving forward?" "Seem to me that he looked really good." So yeah, usually on this mail bank episode, I'm not able to talk about games that were just played. I record this show every week on Thursday. That way it could be in your podcast for you on Friday morning. So I try to avoid talking about Thursday night football. I get my Thursday night football takes out there on the Late Round show, which is recorded at 1 p.m. Eastern every Friday on YouTube. But we had a Wednesday game this week, so I can talk about Giderian Price. And I'm sure aside from the injuries from that game, this is probably the number one talking point. I honestly walked away from that game thinking that my projection for price was pretty good overall. I had talked about this on shows over the summer. We can sit here and say, "Oh, it doesn't make any sense to use George Halani or some other running back when they spend a 30 second overall pick on price." And to you and to me, it really doesn't make any sense. But don't forget, we're all sitting in Mom and Dad's basement. We're not in the front office. We're not with this coaching staff. The Seahawks are coming off a season where they played what we all thought was the superior running back in a limiting role. I mean, it's a reason Kenneth Walker left Seattle this off season. And the Seahawks were rewarded in the end. That can't be lost here. They won the freaking Super Bowl last year. And the player who won Super Bowl MVP was that running back who they didn't give that bell cow workload to. Don't you think that kind of confirms to them that what they did last year was smart and correct? That's why I didn't think we could just totally dismiss all that noise during the off season about George Halani playing a role in that backfield. But even from a prospecting perspective, generic price had a limited production profile for obvious reasons. He played behind Jeremiah Love. But there were real concerns about his past catching and his past protection. So there was always a chance that maybe price would be limited as a past catcher at least to start the season. And the question was, what about the goal line? What would they do in short yardage situations? Well a lot of reports said that a manual Wilson or George Halani might play that role too. So there was always this chance that price despite being the most explosive back in that backfield would lose out on the most important touches for fantasy football purposes. It didn't mean that he was some egregious pick. It just meant that we had to weigh the negatives with the positives. It's why I ended up just being one running back spot below consensus with Jardarian price. He wasn't a fade for me, but he wasn't a target for me. The upside was evident and there are market related trends that I talked about in the draft guide that actually did favor price. But there was also downside, which was a cap ceiling because Seattle would do Seattle things. And those Seattle things led to a Super Bowl win last year. Now look, week one is just week one, a workload that we see this week is not necessarily the workload that we're going to see in week eight or week nine or something. But I do think the workload that we saw for Jardarian price is not really the workload that we want from our fantasy football running backs. Price ended up playing half of Seattle's offensive snaps and they were all on first and second down. He did see two thirds of those types of snaps, but he didn't play on third down at all. That resulted in a slightly lower route share than we'd ideally want it was 41%. But let's give these numbers some context price at a 50% offensive snap rate among running backs with eight or more games played last year that would have ranked 33rd in the league. Price's rush share his rush attempts divided by the team's rush attempts set at 45.5%. That would have ranked 20th among the same running backs last year. And it's pretty interesting because Kenneth Walker was right in that range in 2025. And then prices route share of about 41% that would have ranked 28th last season among all running backs. And then more anecdotally, we did see him come off the field on a play in the green zone before the Seahawks were penalized. So it seemed clear that they were taking him off and short down in this situations. So we're looking at a player based only on week one's usage, who's an fantasy football RB three type role. And obviously drafters want more than that. The good news is that I did think he looked really explosive. A lot of that ground game stuff that we saw in college looked like it was translating. I mean, look, it's a small sample. So we'll see. But I was at least encouraged by what I saw on the ground with generic price. My consistent issue is that that team, the Seahawks, they're not playing fantasy football. They don't care about generic and price scoring 12 times or getting a lot of work through the air. And the more they win, the more their biases are just going to be confirmed, which is not necessarily good news for generic price. So right now, I think overall, he's just a hold. We just across our fingers that Seattle continues to give him more work. And I think they will. The issue is that eventually Zach Charbonne is probably going to be back. And that's just going to make things even more convoluted. This has questions from Andrew. It says, hey, JJ, drafts are essentially all done. So this question comes a bit late. Kenneth Walker was never a first round pick in fantasy while in Seattle. And now he's a one to turn pick. Is the situation in Kansas City actually that much better? Or is his rise in ADP a reflection of winning bias? I just can't bring myself to think the offense that Casey has become is such a significant improvement as the fundamentally change Kenneth Walker's value. Thanks. So this is year five for Kenneth Walker. In his previous four seasons, he scored more than 14 PPR points per game just once. That was in 2024, or his target share was 13.8%. And his other three seasons, he had never gotten to 8%. On one hand, you can say, why do we expect things to be different? On the other, right there, you can see that there's some room for growth. What if his target share is higher? What if it is well over 8%. The one year that it was, he was awesome in fantasy football. And since his rookie season, Walker's had really good yards per out run rates. In fact, among 56 running max with 300 or more routes run over the last three years, Walker's yards per out run ranks 11th. A little uptick in target share can go a long way. So that's one reason to be more bullish. The chiefs could just use them more as a receiver. And there's been a lot of chatter that they are going to use in more as a receiver. So then we look at the ground game work. Walker's been 11th in the NFL in rush attempt share since he joined the league. But there's even some wiggle room there. Last year, that fell to like 43%, 44%. That was his rate. That was his rush share. That's way below a bell cal back. We just talked about that with generic price. So to put that all in other way, there's still a little room for growth for Walker in terms of capturing more on the ground for his team. And then there's the overall situation. A huge reason to love Walker is because he's now with Patrick Mahomes and he's now with Andy Reed in that scheme. And even though Mahomes has not been the same Mahomes over the last few years, defenses are still respecting him in this scheme. Last year, the chiefs ranked sixth and percentage of rushes with five or fewer defenders in the box. They were fourth and percentage of plays just run in general with five or fewer defenders in the box. In 2024, they were top eight in both categories. So the idea with Kenneth Walker is that he can do more as a receiver, which in the past has gone a long way for him, but at the same time, given the scheme, given Patrick Mahomes, he could also see better defensive fronts, although not being in a massively split backfield. It's all hypothetical. There's projection. There's forecasting going on here. That's the case for a lot of those running backs in that range this year, aside from my chase brown. But that baseline should still make him an RB-2 and then the upside can make him legitimately a top five player at the position in fantasy football if it all comes together This has questions from Ben Smith on blue sky it says based on the reports of picking up the playbook quickly Do you think k-shon bootie will be able to make a relevant impact in the first half of the season? Look, I have no idea of k-shon bootie is picking up that playbook. I have no clue. I have no insight to that But I'll reiterate some of the things that I said about Niko Collins the other day on the 10 trends episode and just related to k-shon bootie Because it's relevant for him too If bootie wins that job opposite of Niko Collins And I think he's the clear favorite. Look at who else they have. They've Jaylen Noll who's more of a slot and Xavier Hutchinson who isn't very good There's definitely some intrigue for bootie as a result I'm anticipating the Texans playing less out of 11 personnel this year They currently have as many tight ends on their roster as they do wide receivers They were 6th in 11 personnel use last year and they ran out of 12 personnel at just a 7.7% rate That was second lowest in the league and they like most teams barely played out of 13 That resulted in Houston running with two or fewer wide receivers in the field at once at a sub 30% rate That was the lowest mark in the league Niko Collins has thrived in that kind of environment. Most wide receivers are going to be better More efficient when there are two or fewer wide receivers on the field Because they're not competing with a lot of great pass catchers They're just competing with one other wide receiver and then some tight ends or maybe a fullback and a running back So if we get k-shon bootie playing on the outside and if we see an uptick from Houston and their use of 12 personnel Which I do think is kind of a lock It could make them a really interesting player in fantasy football He's not someone that you can trust just yet, but he's worth having on your bench This has questions from Twitter's from @GregoryLKellog friend of the show He says realistically how many targets can we expect Isaac Tessla to get this season and who are your top three wide receiver Three's the wide receiver three on their team like Tessla So I don't think we're going to be starting Isaac Tessla with that much confidence without an injury to someone in that offense He's more than likely going to finish fifth on that team and target chair. You have Amara St. Brown There's Jamison Williams, there's Sam LaPorta, and there's Jameer Gibbs That's a lot of firepower to overcome if everyone's healthy. We're probably looking at a max like 50 targets Now in terms of my favorite team wide receiver threes I'll just go by ADP to determine who's a wide receiver three Because not all wide receiver threes are built the same Some might consider a wide receiver three as the primary slot player like a Jaden Reed, but Reed had an ADP above Matthew Golden So to me based on that logic, I'll say that golden is the wide receiver three He was the third wide receiver drafted who was on the Packers and Using that logic, I think golden is at the top of that list I talked about it on yesterday's sleepers show, but golden is more than likely to have every opportunity in the world to start the season as Green Bay's X He'll play on the outside I think we'll see a lot of 11 personnel from the Packers, but golden is going to get his chance I'm still a little iffy if he can really take advantage given his prospect profile and how he performed in year one But his price was actually attractive this year the entire market just seemed iffy So golden found himself on some of my teams and I'm hoping that he takes that step forward just selfishly But there are definitely some other candidates here too. Jacobi Myers should at least get some work I'm just concerned about what his production might look like given Brian Thomas Jr and Parker Washington look to be ahead of him from a target share perspective But we got to keep in mind Myers was traded into week 10 last year from week 10 onward He led Jacksonville in both route share and target share The market's just lower on Myers because Brian Thomas was hurt last year and Parker Washington He emerged as a very legit weapon But Myers probably has to be on this list And I'll say my third one for immediate production Don Tavian wicks just to throw a little curveball in there I'm bullish about what he might be able to do to start the season and over his career He's been above the 70th percentile and all the major per-route run metrics that we care about Yards targets fantasy points per-route run I Think other candidates here though would be Debo Samuel who by the time you're listening to this he's already played Pat Brian's an interesting breakout candidate. Trey Harris is the potential to dig into Quentin Johnson's work And then as like a pure handcuffed type Ryan Flanoi He came on last year and if we see either CD-Lam or George Pickens get hurt Flanoi becomes a really attractive option and then maybe Jaylen Macmillan too But I'll say Matthew Golden as far in a way the number one here Then Jacobi Myers then Don Tavian wicks a sort of my curveball But I do think the others are interesting too and hopefully I didn't miss anyone This next one's from Twitter. It says curious why nobody cares about Johan Dotson as the wide receiver to on Atlanta LMAO is he/it Lanna that bad In my opinion the fantasy football community just really really really overrates depth charts I actually ranted about this on a member's only live stream earlier this week I do a waiver wire stream with members every week, and you'll usually get one or two rants out of me during that hour hour and a half-time frame But like Johan Dotson being the wide receiver to just doesn't mean the same thing at all as some other wide receiver on another team being their wide receiver to Regardless of the talent level team environment teammate competition all of that matters We know we're looking for volume and fantasy football There are some teams where a wide receiver could be the team's wide receiver to but he could still be walking into like a 21 22% target share or higher Just look at Dallas The reason George Pickens is so attractive in fantasy football is a combination of the fact that he's good sure But it's also a lack of competition elsewhere on that team They're CD-LAM but everyone else in that team isn't commanding massive volume the way that George Pickens can They won't target their running backs at a super high rate and Obviously the offense of environment should be good in general a Dak Prescott and a high number of pass attempts With Atlanta Johan Dotson's on a team with Drake London Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson So because he's not a George Pickens like talent He's not able to just leapfrog other good players in the offense and that offense could have very bad quarterback play And we're also not even including the fact that a player like Zachariah Branch Could eventually just take over and see more work than Johan Dotson So could Dotson have usable weeks here in there sure of course if he's on the field if he's running routes That's always a possibility But is he as a wide receiver to on a depth chart gonna be super relevant in fantasy probably not That's at least the bet that I'm making This has questions from Paul from the members hub it says JJ now that season long drafts are done Was there anyone who you drafted a lot of and it surprised you or is your portfolio mostly as expected? So I had this player as a target all summer long. So it's not a surprise that I drafted him But I am surprised by how much I drafted him in my auctions I was getting him for a couple of bucks in my snake drafts. I was getting him as a double digit round pick The guy that I have more of than any other player in fantasy football this year is freaking Dalton concade what could go wrong, right? The logic behind concade is really just math driven He had an elite yards for our run rate last year. That's only been hit six other times since 2011 He's been one of the better tight ends and peep your points for route run since he entered the league But he dealt with injuries the last couple of years and that could be a reason that he's been outside the top 30 in route share Even if he's just like 15th in route share this year that can go a super long way given his per route run effectiveness And you're attaching him to a good offense where he could easily be a top two target on that team And the nice part is that even if it doesn't work out, I'm not screwed. It was a later round pick. It was low cost to my auctions So yeah, crazy enough. It's Dalton concade that wasn't quite the case in best ball this year But it's definitely the case in my managed leagues The last question this week is from Patrick. It says with Brock Bowers now sideline for what they're saying is one to two games How are you feeling about Michael mayor? Yeah, super annoying news came out this week about Brock Bowers getting that procedure and most of the fantasy football doctors that I follow They think it's gonna be longer than just a couple of games. So we'll see if you have Bowers be prepared and One very easy way to prepare is simply by using Michael mayor Mayor is a good player among tight ends last year with 200 or more routes run. He was sixth and targets per route run Bowers missed four fantasy relevant games last year in those contests mayor average 12 ppl points per game Saw target on over 28% of his routes run and at a 2.22 yards per out run rate If he were to hypothetically do that across the season, he would have been sixth and points per game Third in yards per out run and first and targets per out run So I have him ranked as a tight end won this week. It's a good matchup and he's a good player who shown up when this exact scenario has already occurred And we have a tight end friendly system now with Clint Kubiak So if you can still get Michael mayor go get Michael mayor That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening if you're subscribed to the late round fantasy football While podcasts make sure you are researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it. You get an episode of Late Round Perspectives dropping later today, and will also be live on the YouTube channel, youtube.com/atlateroundff for the Late Round Fantasy football show at one PM Eastern. If you miss it, you can go back and watch it, but it will also find itself in this podcast feed every Saturday morning. But again, thanks for listening, and enjoy week one. The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61, it is in the name NFL Daily, you'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long, that game winning drive, maybe it's her, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes, we'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of those rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape, join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game, listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Here's your newest podcast, the NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Ceciliano, it is your home for everything football, breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and here from your favorite players too. Join me, and an all-star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episodes of the NFL Report, Monday through Friday, all season long, listen to the NFL Report Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.