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MAGA's Big Fat Greek Scandal

from Pod Save America ·

93m 25s

MAGA's Big Fat Greek Scandal

SimpliSafe is presented as a cutting-edge home security solution that uses AI-powered cameras and live US-based agents to stop break-ins before they start—offering real-time alerts and intervention in under 30 seconds. The CEO of the podcast endorses it for its ease of use and reliability, highlighting a current 60% discount for new users. Meanwhile, the discussion shifts to political dynamics ahead of the midterms, where Republican vulnerabilities are exposed. Polls show a significant number of Trump voters regret their choice, signaling widespread disengagement. Trump’s campaign tactics—such as offering financial checks, making inflammatory claims about Iran, and promoting a false "super intelligence" narrative—are criticized as ineffective and damaging. Key GOP candidates like JD Vance and Ken Paxton face backlash for performative, confusing, or divisive messaging, while internal party divisions and poor communication strategies undermine their credibility. The episode underscores that the Republican brand is in decline, and voters are increasingly disenchanted, especially among younger demographics. Despite Trump’s continued attempts to rally supporters through emotional appeals and promises, the data and public sentiment suggest a growing disconnect. The analysis concludes that the party’s inability to address core issues and its reliance on divisive rhetoric may lead to a significant electoral shift. Political debates in states like Michigan and Maine highlight the challenges of maintaining voter trust amid polarization. Ultimately, the episode blends a product recommendation with a deep dive into the fragility of Republican political momentum.

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Today's presenting sponsor is SimpliSafe Home Security. We are in the final stretch before midterms and no campaign wants an October surprise. You know, the thing nobody saw coming that blows up right before election day? SimpliSafe's whole job is making sure your home never has one. The moment someone steps onto your property alive, US-based agent is already on it before they ever reach your door. Unlike traditional security systems that only alert you after a break-in's already underway, SimpliSafe is built to stop it before it starts. Smart AI-powered cameras watch for potential threats and alert a live US-based security specialist ready to intervene. The agent intervenes in under 30 seconds, speaking through the camera to stop an intruder in their tracks and calling for urgent 911 dispatch when it's needed most. Our CEO recently got a SimpliSafe system after hearing us talk about it for years, and she loves it. She installed it really quick on her own. System was up and running in no time. She thought the app is super easy to use, allows her to disarm, or. or arm the system from her phone and check the cameras right from her phone, so she is very happy about it. Join the more than 6 million people who entrust SimpliSafe with their home security. Right now, save 60% off with professional monitoring when you visit simplisafe.com slash crooked. That's simplisafe.com slash crooked. And when you order, please write in PodSafe America in the checkout survey. It lets them know we sent you and really helps to support the show. SimpliSafe, ahead of crime in real time. Welcome to PodSafe America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, we'll talk about how the great Republican midterm panic has begun. Trump throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks, including more money. The week of big, Senate debates in Maine, Michigan, Iowa, and maybe Texas, now that Trump has weighed in. And of course, we'll discuss the absolutely insane report about Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle demanding that a Trump donor pay off her $100,000 Amex bill in exchange for influence peddling and so much more. Then you'll hear Lovett's conversation with Florida Senate candidate Angie Nixon. But first, CrookedCon is coming up. November 5th through 7th in Washington, D.C. We really want to know. We want you guys to be there. We are excited to announce 24 different conversations and debates across four stages. Everything from the Democratic brand, which is awesome, to the future of AI, to building a winning campaign. We've also got a live taping of Still Counting with Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Druk. And that's in addition to PodSafe America, Love It or Leave It, and Strict Scrutiny live shows. It's going to be so much fun. Go to CrookedCon.com. Get your tickets now. We want to see you in D.C. It's going to be a good time. Everyone's going to be talking about it. You're going to need to be there to know what happens. And, you know, maybe you can ask a question yourself. And there's going to be all kinds of fun surprises. So get yourself to D.C., CrookedCon.com. And right now, the staff is trying to figure out fun surprises. I mean, I don't want to reveal anything right now. I don't think I'm supposed to. So now maybe everyone can get to work. Yeah. All right, Dan. So, uh, 25 days out from the midterms, and the panikins are panicking. As they do. As they do. Trump's approval keeps getting worse, not better. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot keeps getting bigger, not smaller. I think Nate Silver has it at nine points as of this recording, which is a new high. The New York Times just did about three dozen interviews with some extremely unenthused Trump voters in Western Michigan. Here's a little taste of what they said. A couple quotes from the interviews. "He's losing touch. He's not making sense. There's very low energy on the Republican side. He's just not there in my head anymore." Devastating. Uh, but this is my favorite. "President Trump has been saying, 'Vote as if I was on the ballot.' And that's exactly what I'm going to do, not vote." These are all Trump voters, Dan. They were Trump voters. Um, "Meanwhile, Trump's top two political advisors fled the country. Uh, to advise a Putin-aligned client in the Balkans." Had some better business overseas, so they skipped town for a little bit. Um, "Mike Johnson told Fox News that if he loses his job as speaker, he would move back home to start a lawn care business, if that's what God wants." Uh, true. It's a true story. Um, "But Trump himself? Well, the president is locked in on what the American people want him to be focused on. Handing out medals to AI billionaires and to himself." Let's watch. "Elon is our modern-day Thomas Edison. And Elon, I want to congratulate you. You're my friend in all of that. But you are a very, very special guy." "Mr. President, we have been able to find the medal from your uncle. And we here want to present it to you in a beautiful frame." What a fucking glaze fest he's got. He's giving medals to Elon, to Jensen "Twang," as Trump said during the event. I mean, the amount of money that people on that stage had given Trump or donated to Republican causes was shocking. Yeah, like, what a surprise. All the science medals went to the billionaires that have been, you know, supporting Trump in some way or another. And the guy from Microsoft at the end, who, obviously, he's, they've done their fair share of, like, Trump coziness, but is not in the same group of the people calling, like, full MAGA. He's kind of, like, three steps. Farther away from everyone else. And someone at the White House was like, "Well, we can't be having Trump giving all these medals away without giving Trump something." Well, obviously. "Let's take the weird story he always tells about his uncle and being a genius at MIT that he weaves into every fucking anecdote and turn it into a video and a special prize just for Donald Trump." It is truly fantasy camp at all times for Donald Trump. But it's also, like, 20. 25 days to the midterms. This is what they're doing. This was the, this was the public event today. It's donor maintenance, John. It's donor maintenance. Yeah, that is true. That clip really pairs well with the New York Times story that I mentioned with all those voters. Um, what'd you think of that piece? And did it make you feel any better about the scary possibility that I know is keeping all of us up at night or waking us up early in the morning? Um, that the polls, the very good, exciting polls that we're all seeing are somehow missing all these Trump voters who just won't answer the phone or their texts anymore. I love how you turned this question about Republican voters hitting Trump into a "are the polls right?" discourse. What else is there to say? Yeah, that is basically, that's basically. trying to go down the checklist of worries here. You know, I don't want to be too, I don't want to be too excited and get carried away. Hey, what would, what would be the worst thing that happened if you were happy for 25 days? Am I not laughing? You're gonna, you're not going to be any less sad on. election night if you were sad now. I told this to someone working on a very competitive campaign who was saying that they were feeling cautiously optimistic. And I said, "That is a good way to be because it's not going to change the outcome of the race to make yourself feel miserable for the next couple of weeks." Well, I want to be very clear, do as I say, not as I do, because you've worked on Racist with me and you know exactly how I operate. And my goal is to emotionally prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And I have done that before. So here's what I take on that. Here's what I take on this. One, this is hard for me because I loved every single word of the story. I know, it really was. There was, usually there's like some to be sure, but everything was, it was just gravy, the whole thing. Perfect. But I've also been running a 20 year campaign against made on the street journalism because I think it's so fucking stupid. We're just going to go to a, you know, we, we spent a lot of time in the Trump 1.0 yelling about the diners. This is basically like they went to the diner and now the diners are good. I had that same thought. The reason I think it's important now is because so much of the data, like the thousands and thousands of interviews and all the data points that we're getting in the polls are pointing in one direction. And so you kind of want a, like a qualitative focus group style gut check. And now this is not scientific, like a focus group. I was going to say, you should have a focus group. I know. But if you listen to Sarah Longwell's focus groups or other people's focus groups or interviews like this, you start to get sort of the sense on the ground that like, okay, maybe this is sort of in line with what we're talking about. Yeah, this is, if you listen to Sarah Longwell's focus group podcast, or you just paid to, you have the access to the focus group data, this in navigator research has a bunch of really interesting focus groups like this. It is, this is, there was nothing surprising in this New York Times, right? This is what you've been hearing from Trump voters. The quantitative data backs it up, not just the Trump's approval rating, but also in this navigator poll that came out this morning on Thursday, one in four 2024 Trump voters regret their vote. So they either have, so there's this obviously, you know, whether the numbers are exactly right or the poll, the focus group data, the poll that came out this morning on Thursday, one in four 2024 Trump voters regret their vote. So they either have, so there's this obviously, you know, whether the numbers are exactly right or the poll, the focus groups are exactly representative. It is very clear that there is a wide swath of voter Trump voters who either have turned on him hard, who are just disenchanted with him or have stopped paying attention to him, right? He's no longer the centerpiece of the Republican identity or their own personal identity. He's sort of faded into the background and all of those things are bad news for Republicans. And the only way. As I was reading through these interviews and that story, the only way this could redound to the Republicans benefit is if these same people who are saying this about Trump are like, well, but you know, Mike. Rogers isn't so bad. And, um, he seems, he seems more like a normal Republican or Susan Collins seems more like a normal Republican or, you know, that that's the only way that this could go South. I think at this point, because I do feel like, and I've thought this for a long time, the backlash to Trump is real. And I think the only question is, does it extend to all the other Republican candidates who are on the ballot? Well, every Republican candidate is running ahead of Trump, right? Right. There is a, except Ken Paxton, except Ken Paxton is doing better than Trump in Texas by a few points. He just has the smallest, uh, you know, smallest edge over Trump the rest of them. The other, um, the thing about this too, I just want to get to the polls for a second is this is very against brand. So I just want to stipulate that I'm not saying this is true. I just, as a mere factual and statistical possibility, it is also possible. That the polls are wrong in the other direction. I know I had, it is not a guarantee. I didn't want to speak it out loud, but I've had, I think, I think, I think, and maybe now we're talking about it. I will do it. I'm going to write this for the message box. Oh, I've been up until now. I, because for like you, I've been afraid if I say it, because as a number statistical person, if I I'm also very superstitious. So if I say it, then it can't happen. And if I write it, it definitely won't happen. But I know that's nonsense, but it's just, in 2025, particularly in New Jersey, a state that swung far to the right in 2024, the polls dramatically overestimated the Republican chair of the vote. And you can see that playing out because some of the statistical methods being used to get more Trump voters in the polls may be giving a false impression of what MAGA turnout will be. And so it is possible they have, they were wrong. They were pro Republican in 2012. They were pro Republican in 20, 20, 25. They could be pro Republican. Also, it could all even each other out because they could be missing some Republicans who don't want to be answering pollsters and they could be missing some low propensity to, you know what I'm saying? Like some of these things could just even each other out, but we'll see. We'll see. Um, I just, the Trump's focus and not just like the lack of focus on what matters, but the focus on specifically what's pissing people off. That's the real, that's what's real. Really incredible here. Like in addition to that AI glaze fest at the white house, there was also, do you see his, his truth social this morning where he was like the white house, it's just a random announcement. Like in response to nothing, the white house considers anyone that uses the term artificial intelligence, as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, super intelligence, the enemy. Donald Trump says he considers people who don't use the new name for something that he has given himself at the enemy. If you don't use Donald Trump's preferred language, you are the enemy. This is where we are. Yeah. It's not really, it's not really focused on the big things you'd say. Only thing is he's also failing at the small thing. Like people are not using the term SI, if you will. Well, the, the, the AI overlords are, they're all like, yeah, no, absolutely. No, you're right. Jeff Bezos, someone asked Jeff Bezos about an interview and he switched halfway through the interview to start saying super intelligence. Like, yeah, I like super intelligence. Yeah. I'm gonna start saying that now it's so super fucking losers. Yeah. How many billions do you need before you can fucking grow a pair? The fact that people are taking to the app that we still call Twitter to litigate this debate explains why it's doomed to fail. Yeah. It's uh, it's something, uh, the guy in the time story who said he's gonna pretend like Trump's on the ballot, uh, and not vote is, uh, a 24 year old Trump voter. Uh, one of the many young men who are really pissed at Trump over Iran, among other things, breaking his promise to stop endless wars. Um, Politico has a story today about how the person tasked with winning back these young men is none other than JD Vance, who electrifies the youth. Um, and here he is today offering his own unique definition of socialism. I don't know what the term means anymore. I think in reality, what it actually means in the American context is that you want to replace American workers with foreign workers and you want boys to play in girls sports. That's what unites the socialists that I see running across the United States of America today. Foreign workers of the world unite so that boys can play in girls sports. Is that a quote from Das Kapital? It's really hard to overstate how stupid this is. I mean, like we can, like we could sit here and debate and explain how this has nothing, nothing to do with socialism in any way, shape or form, but it just also shows that like Donald JD Vance fashions himself and all the JD Vance, second fans of their fashion and was like the intellectual engine of magaism or political, you know, populist, the Vanguard of the movement, Dan Vanguard, the movement, if you will. And he's given no thought to a question like this. I, I thought it was notable because back in our day, uh, most Republicans would have just said, you know, socialism is government controlling the private sector and deciding how much money everyone has and taking away from the, the makers and giving it to the taker, you know, like they would have done something like that. And they would have bit Romney Paul Ryan did up. Yeah. And JD Vance, uh, maybe sees that that's not as effective anymore. Well, it's a little hard when the government is literally seizing the means of production by taking ownership stakes in companies in exchange for giving them access to foreign markets. Yep. I think that might have gone through his mind as well. Well, he's well, magaism or whatever you want to call it. The movement is now big government authoritarianism. It's not small government capitalism. It's it's socialism for the people that they like. Yes. For the rich people. Yeah. For the, and the people who support them. And it is, um, everyone else can go themselves. Um, Trump himself has been going with the strategy of, uh, trying to bribe people into voting Republican. Uh, the government's putting $1,000 deposits into Trump accounts for children born in 2025 or later. That was an announcement this week. They're sending one time $90 payments to 20 million Medicare enrollees, $90. Woo. Uh, and mailing $500 refund checks, uh, to some Obamacare customers. Um, and Trump continues to pretend he will give everyone $5,000 if Republicans win and then control government, which apparently they don't do. Now, um, here he is, uh, repeating this promise again in Texas on Wednesday. We just sent out to the victims of this Democrat fraud checks for $500 each, including 139,000 families from Texas. If the Republicans win, you'll each have $5,000 in your pocket and economic success for our country. We call it the Trump dividend is approximately $1 trillion, but we have a record-setting $21 trillion that's being invested in the country. So when you think of it, it's really easily handleable. It is easily handleable, handleable, handleable, easily handleable of just $1 trillion or just given away. How confident do you feel that all this bribing and attempted bribing, um, won't have any impact on the midterms pretty damn confident. So I think there's two ways to look at this. One is by various estimates, including one by Mark Zandi of Moody's analytics, the Iran war, just since the Iran war, the average American family has spent an extra $1,000 for increased gas prices, increased groceries, interest costs, mortgage rates. So $1,000. And so he's giving a tiny fraction of people in the country, somewhere between $90 and $500 or a hundred dollars. Like just the numbers of people, even if these, the checks, you know, you gotta separate between the checks people are actually getting and the checks that Trump is promising them. If you focus on the checks they are getting, even if they were incredibly persuasive and people are like, you know what? I know it's gonna cost $90 to fill up my tank over the next two weeks. This $90 check is so impressive. I'm gonna vote for Trump. Those people are distributed. You know, it's not that many people that are distributed all across the 300 million Americans. It doesn't make a huge difference. So let's talk about the checks that people Trump is promising. So G Elliot Morris over at strength and numbers did a big poll on this. And when you ask people, just do you want $5,000, this will shock you. But the majority of Americans would like the government to send them 5,000 free dollars. They do like free money. And even if you tell people it's Trump's idea, they're still, they still will take the money. Even if they hate Trump, just like they gladly, even if they hated Biden, they gladly took their stimulus checks, uh, out of, from during the pandemic, they'll take their free money, no matter who the president is. But then if you tell people that the checks are only coming from Republicans, keep the majority, the net support drops 36 points. Wow. A majority of Republicans think it's inappropriate Patriots, a majority of Republicans think that, uh, trying to give people money in exchange for electoral outcomes is inappropriate. Majority of Republicans think that, and then, but, and this is the most important number of them all. Only 13% of voters believe the checks will actually come. Yeah. I was, thank you. I was gonna say that, that to me is, that's the only number that really matters. No one fucking believes this guy and they shouldn't because he has a Republican majority right now. The election will not affect in any way the ability or inability to send $5,000 to every fucking American. What are we talking about? And then on top of that, like he promised the Doge checks, they didn't come. But then the government was required by the courts to return tariff money. Do they give it to people? No, they gave it to some of those people standing on that stage with him today, getting their trillionaire medals from the federal government. Did you see that same Trump rally, by the way, that Trump repeated his, we haven't talked about this, his bizarre riff on Iran hitting Los Angeles, where I happen to be, or San Diego with a nuclear weapon? This time he specifically said, quote, we're not going to let that happen. We protect our cities. I started this whole thing. What do you think about this whole thing? I think, look, there is obviously a very big debate about what he actually meant. And there are a lot of reporters who are really showing off their, both sides, bona fides by quote, tweeting Democrats and saying, this is an unfair representation of what Trump says. I don't care about any of that. To me, this is more, this is just emblematic of what a disaster it is to have Trump out there. Because every time he goes out and he opens his mouth, he does something that is unhelpful for Republicans. Like, I don't think a lot of Americans think that Trump actually wants Iran to bomb American cities. Even you and I hate Donald Trump. I don't actually think he wants that either. But it just, it's created discourse that all these candidates, I don't know, I don't know, have to respond to. It's gotten a ton of attention. People who don't pay attention to politics have heard about it. These candidates are getting asked, what do you think about this statement? Do you agree with it? Do you condemn it? And then what's happening now? Republicans up and down the ballot are talking about the costs of the Iran war, which is the absolutely the last thing that their campaign staffs and their pollsters would want them talking about. So more Trump at more rallies. I think it's, I think it's pretty clear what he was trying to say, even though he did not say it clearly at all, because he doesn't say anything clearly. And he's impossible to follow. But it's his usual thing where he's, it's, it's a whole nother made up story that's just as ridiculous, right? Which is like, if I didn't, if I didn't bomb Iran, they would have developed a nuclear weapon, even though none of this, nothing he did in this war since February has done anything to degrade their ability to develop a nuclear weapon. And it's, and gas, higher gas is a small price to pay for ending Iran's nuclear ambitions, which we haven't. Done yet, which we haven't done yet. That's the part that matters politically, the small price to pay. Stop bitching American people. I am trying to accomplish a goal that I am failing to accomplish that you do not care about and we're not worried about. Right. And I just, to me, it was like the targets here for criticizing Trump are many. That's why we get up every day. And I don't, you know, I don't need to spend a lot of time on, on how he flubbed his line. And now if, if Los Angeles fell into the ocean tomorrow, do I think Trump would care very much and shed a tear? No, I do not actually. But I kind of already knew that before the rally. I didn't need, I need to hear him at the rally to know that. Pod Save America is brought to you by Helix. As October brings cooler weather and packed autumn schedules, getting a good night's sleep becomes essential. Set yourself up for better sleep and better days ahead with the Helix. You don't have to take our word for it. Helix is the most awarded mattress brand tested and reviewed by experts at major outlets like Forbes and Wired. You can take the Helix sleep quiz to find your ideal match based on your preferences. Helix delivers your mattress right to your door with free shipping in the U.S. Plus you can rest easy with their 120 night sleep trial and limited lifetime warranty, as well as seamless returns and exchanges. The happy with Helix guarantee offers a risk-free customer first experience designed to ensure you're completely satisfied with your new mattress. So what are you waiting for? We have so many Helix mattresses and we have had them over the years. Our kids have Helix mattresses. My in-laws have Helix mattresses. We just have them everywhere and have also had like a lot of family members have them and everyone loves them. And so if you're looking for a mattress, you should think about Helix. But also if you have a mattress already, but you're like, I kind of want an upgrade. I want something a little more comfy. Try Helix. Comes right to your door and it's great and very affordable. Go to helixsleep.com slash crooked for $20. 27% off site wide. This offer is exclusive to Pod Save America listeners. That's helixsleep.com slash crooked for 27% off site wide. helixsleep.com slash crooked. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. If you've thought about trying therapy with our long-term partner, BetterHelp, insurance options may now be available nationwide with an average copay for eligible members of just $23 per session. World Mental Health Day is October 10th, but stress and burnout can surface at any time. It's announced regardless of what the calendar says. True mental wellness isn't tied to a date on the calendar. It's an ongoing daily commitment. You don't need a huge life-altering event to start therapy. It's just as helpful for the everyday things, a job that's eating up too much headspace, a relationship that feels tricky, or even just a subtle gut feeling that something's off. Don't wait for World Mental Health Day to check in on yourself. Therapy is good. You should try it. Try talking to someone if you haven't yet. And I know you might be thinking, I don't need therapy. I feel fine. Well, once you start talking to someone, you realize that even if you feel fine, you can always feel better. And that's what BetterHelp does best. If you've been waiting to start therapy, BetterHelp works with more than 125 health plan networks and eligible members have an average copay of just $23 per session with insurance. If you don't have insurance or you don't live in the United States, you can still get 10% off your first month. Visit betterhelp.com slash PSA to explore your payment options. That's betterhelp, H-E-L-P dot com slash PSA. Speaking of Iran, he did announce today that he will not resume full-scale war against Iran at least until after the midterms are over. And then he can stop worrying about what the American people think. That is the closing message. I will escalate the war after the election. Remember when Nixon in 68 closed on a secret plan for peace in Vietnam? Trump has closed on a secret plan for war. Secret plan for war. Just hold on a couple more weeks. Get those ballots in. We'll start the bombing again. Gas will go even higher. You won't be able to do anything about it because there's no more elections with Trump as president after this. Well, I guess the one in 28, he'll still be president. But you know what I'm saying. All right, so the bigger question here, did Trump's appearance in Texas actually give a boost to the candidates he was there to support? Because believe it or not, he was there to campaign. Even though you didn't hear that when he was talking about the checks or he was talking about Iran and Los Angeles and San Diego and giving all the other shit. It's tough to know. Tough to know for Greg Abbott because he didn't show up. He had a very important hospital dedication. Can't reschedule that. I can't reschedule the hospital dedication. I know the president's in town and it's 25 days till the midterms. But you know what? I have to go. I have to go show up at this ribbing cutting. Ken Paxton was there. The president did try to go after James Tallarico as he continues to workshop this bit he's been doing a lot lately about Tallarico's eating habits. Let's listen. He's a vegan. He wants to eat a piece of lettuce, a little piece of lettuce, please. But he's been seen. You know, you haven't seen him in a couple of weeks. I hear the guy's disappeared. Nobody knows. You know where he is? He's sick because he's been forced to eat meat. For political reasons. And he's throwing up all over the place. He's sick. You know, my wife told me, sir, do me a favor. You have to do me just a little bit of a favor. It's not vegan. It's vegan. I don't know about that stuff. I'm not into it. And he said, it's vegan. Please pronounce that word properly. I called it vegan. Vegan. I thought, how the hell would I know? I like steak. Is that why James Tallarico is ill? Does he have the, the meat sweats and he's been vomiting from eating too much meat? Performatively, performatively eating meat to rebut the charge that he's a vegan. A vegan? A vegan. Sir, it's a vegan. Yeah, does he, yeah. Does Milani really call him sir? I wouldn't be totally surprised. I would be shocked. Probably one of the nicer things she calls him. I would be shocked if she called him sir. You know who does call him sir? Who? Natalie. Natalie Harp. Yeah. Just saying. I don't know. Just a little mix up there. What, they're making a big deal about a poor James Tallarico who's been sick for a couple of days. Like really sick, apparently. Yeah, he has the flu. He has the flu. And he's like, he's also like a type one diabetic and he's got the flu and he like had to go to urgent care. And they're all out there like, where is he? Where, he's just disappeared. And it's like, yeah, he's fucking sick. People get sick. Here's the thing. When James Tallarico was not on the campaign trail, he's at home in bed sick. Ken Pack's on the campaign trail. He's in London with his mistress. Also, it's such a like, I mean, everything they do is so short-sighted. Like they can't see around any corners. Like Tallarico's campaign announced, like he's back on the trail this weekend. Yeah. So he's going to be there. So all of the, your whole, your whole week's message about like Tallarico has disappeared. Like you got one more day of it. And then, yeah. What is the, there's no even instant, like it's, they keep saying like, where's he going? It's missing. It's mysterious. And all these like MAGA, you know, things like that. political types or like there's something must be going on. my hair. What do you think is going on? Like, it's obviously complete bullshit, but— They want him in place getting transition surgery to one of the genders. It's like, if you're going to have a conspiracy theory, have a conspiracy. Yeah, well, they haven't landed on it yet. They're workshopping something. So they're just—they're workshopping it in real time on Twitter, where you workshop conspiracy theories. Yeah. We'll get one. We'll get it by tomorrow, I'm sure. And then he'll be back on Saturday. Yeah. So after—I mean, then it will—well, the body double will be back on Saturday. After the rally, Trump took it upon himself to challenge Tallarico to a debate with Paxton, which is interesting because Tallarico has already, in fact, agreed to debate Paxton and hasn't, only because Paxton has refused to a single debate, even the one Tallarico proposed on Fox News, a home game for Paxton. Still won't do it. Meanwhile, the latest installment of Paxton saying stupid shit at that fundraiser dropped Thursday morning, where this time he calls for cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Making some reasonable cuts and mandatory spending, you're going to have to do it. Or we were going to—there is no solution. That's just a reality. We have to suck it up. So, yeah, that's what is meant by mandatory spending for those who aren't budget nerds who went through the budget battle. The budget battles of 2011. That's Social Security and Medicare. And if you don't like that, you're just going to have to suck it up. I am waiting for the next—the final installment of this. This is this series of leaked audio from the same fundraiser that they just keep dribbling out for Ken Paxton to just be like, honestly, you should just vote for James Tallarico. I want to take a pause in this podcast and give a round of applause to the John Cornyn's campaign staff. Oh, you think it's them? Well, they— Someone in this fundraiser, Republican, recorded him and then gave it to someone, presumably in Republican politics, who's then been—they parceled it out. It's so funny not to—I know not to drop it all at once and just be like— Yeah, like an amateur. An amateur would have just been like, Politico, here you go. Here's the whole thing. But just piece after piece after piece, and they're leaking it out on Twitter. And it is just—it's very well done. Kudos to them. If they could have done this good a job with Ken Paxton's opposition research during their primary campaign— Maybe. We'd be in a different spot. But— Not a better spot for us, but— No, no, no, no, no. What do you—talk to me about this debate thing. What do you think happened here? Um, I think that all I can—so my first thought was, okay, they told Trump, oh, Tallarico's been off the trail and he's missing. And so Trump assumed that like, oh, he's trying to duck the campaign trail and maybe he's trying to duck debates, too. And, and just no one told Trump. Trump didn't know that Paxton has been refusing to debate. That's like, that's the Occam's razor. Like, they're all just idiots and no one communicated to Trump that Paxton did this. But I don't know. Maybe there's a more sinister explanation. No, no, no. So there's—I think there's—there is the Trumpsa—this is not my theory, just to be clear. This is the Trumpsa, like, jujitsu political genius who's like, you know what? Not debating is fucking stupid. You're behind. You should be behind. You should debate. You got to get that vacant Tallarico in front of the people of Texas. And so I'm just going to give you a push. Yeah, I'm going to bully Trump—Paxton into it. So that's one theory. And he clearly hates Ken—he hates Ken Paxton. So that is possible. The other theory is, it's a version of yours, but where they're actually stupider, which is someone briefed Trump on the race and they told them about the debate thing, but Trump wasn't paying attention and he misheard and assumed that— I can see in Trump's head him thinking this beta vegan wouldn't want to be a man in debate and just thinking that and then doing it backwards. And just imagine being Ken Paxton's communications director. This came out at like midnight Texas time, I think. You've just got back from this rally. You feel like you kind of maybe survived the rally. Trump didn't call Paxton fat and stupid in this one. And you get home, you open up your beer, and then you get a notification. That Trump has challenged your opponent to a debate on behalf of your campaign without telling you. You know, I'm starting to buy your theory that Trump did it, not because he's some jiu-jitsu master, but because like the theme of his entire involvement in the Paxton campaign has been bullying and emasculating Ken Paxton. You're ugly. You're bad. This guy sucks. Vote for him anyway. So like, I could see him being like, fucking go. No debate. I'm just going to, I'm just going to make you debate by, by saying it publicly. This is the race where Trump has the most skin in the game of all of them. He, you know, there've been like in 2022, he handpicked a lot of the candidates, candidates and losses. Like this cycle, Paxton's the only, Paxton, I guess Vivek are the two that he thrust on the Republican party. And this is the one where he thrust, Paxton, he's thrust on the Republican party against the wishes of basically everyone else in the party. And so if Republicans win a Texas whatever it is, 1988, that will be very embarrassing for Trump. And so Trump's doing what he naturally does, which is to already begin shifting blame to Ken Paxton as opposed to himself. Now, maybe, now maybe he can say Paxton should have debated. Yeah. The things he's going to say about Paxton after Paxton loses, or if he loses, knock on wood, are going to be so much fun. Especially because the things he's saying about him now. This is what he theoretically wants him to win. Speaking of debates, they're happening everywhere this week. We're recording this on Thursday afternoon. Just before debates in three big Senate races, Maine, Michigan, and Georgia. Let's start with Michigan, where Mike Rogers will almost certainly be asked for his take on Trump's latest post, giving Rogers his complete and total endorsement and calling Abdul El-Sayed Mohammed over and over, saying, quote, he goes back to the days of the jihad. The bigger issue for Rogers, though, is trying to pull off an epic flip-flop. On Trump's trade war with Canada. Last year, Rogers said that the auto tariffs were, quote, restoring fairness. And in August, he called the tariffs necessary. But now he's running this ad. Drinking a little bath and watching the Red Wings. Man, it just doesn't get any more Michigan than that. And here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now. Man, man, it just doesn't get any more Michigan than that. They're drinking this Canadian beer. Could you have not tried a few more takes on that one line at the very least? Man, it doesn't get any more Michigan than that. It's just it's the least believable line I've I've heard in an ad in a long time. John, this is undoubtedly the best of many, many takes. It is a shit political ad in every sense of the word. It looks fake. It's a it was it was not filmed in Florida where Mike Rogers owns a house. Yeah. You know what he does has been living for over many years. He drinks mojitos and watches the Panthers. That's what that guy does. All right. And it's just he like you can say this. I'm like, you know, people think I'm maybe a little too Florida or rich because Abdul's been going after how wealthy he is. And so I'm going to like our goal is to show regular guy. So I'm going to wear a giant fucking sign that says regular guy. And then let's even get into the tariff part of this. Remember this. Remember when Trump launched the whole trade war again or reignited the trade war with Canada? I remember Roger's statement because I was like, what the fuck are they doing? It was like he basically didn't say Trump's name at all. He didn't say the tariffs were bad. All he said was like, I need to be senator so I can have a meeting with Donald Trump or I have I can get the meeting that I need to bring an end to this. I don't know. It was like some kind of bullshitty statement that he didn't take a position on either side. And now he's finally all the way against them. But he's not even that either. Right. Because like they obviously had a meeting and they're like, look, sir, you are losing in the polls. And one of the problems you have is that Trump is very unpopular. He's doing very unpopular things. So we need to find a high profile way for you to break with the president that will help people. But they walk up to the edge, but they don't do it. He doesn't say Donald Trump shouldn't start the tariff or doesn't say that Donald Trump should end the tariff or he speaks only in passive tense about these things. The tariff war should end. Well, Mike Rogers, who the fuck should end it? Same thing with the Iran war. Remember, he did that a couple of months ago or two weeks ago. But who knows what time is anymore? And it's like the Iran war must end. Well, it's like, well, who started the war and who's the person responsible for ending it? But he can't say that because he's too afraid that either Trump will turn up the money spigot, Trump will call and yell at him, which he obviously does not want, or Trump will come to Michigan, which Trump has already said he's planning on doing and embarrass the living shit out of him like he's Ken Paxton. But if you're going to if you know you have to break with Trump, you have to do what Mario Salazar did in that ad we looked at a few weeks ago, which you have to actually do it, look into camera and do it. But he cannot do it. I used to really kind of cringe at all of Abdul's tweeting at Mike Rogers about what a beta he is. And I don't know that's the best political strategy, but it is not wrong either. I know. I mean, it's hard to talk about this because we are record. By the time you all listen to this, the debate will have happened. None of you will have watched the debate. Oh, that's true. No, all I can think of is like what a what a great set of questions for mike rogers the debate you know it's like oh so what are you going to do to end the trade war do you think that president trump should have started it do you think what do you think should happen now like what is what are his answers to all that but then let's say he has a different bolder answer in the debate then why the fuck are you spending all this money on this ad right now which is going to be seen by more people because you're showing it during michigan and detroit lions football games than your debate on a thursday night that's going up against thursday night football yeah that's true that's true um on the muhammad thing uh axios had a story thursday morning about how trump is fuming at fox news um for what he sees as overly favorable coverage of abdul uh he posted about it the other day after the martha mccallum interview um with another hottest reference uh he said that her interview was a softball interview which it was not um abdul just did really well yeah he ran circles around her apparently uh his staff uh trump staff actually called fox about it and did the same thing in august after that jesse waters interview uh that abdul later used in an ad so um what do you think you think going on fox is seems like it's working well here's what i know i know that no one not donald trump not the white house communications staff not the lord himself can stand in the way of jesse waters his crush on abdul like love finds a way and so he's going to keep doing what he's doing yes i mean it is i think there is a like there's a larger question about whether the trump's over the top incredibly racist attacks on abdul are help in any way i think the answer that is clearly no but i don't know what do you think no i don't think i think um look now by saying no does that mean i think that there's no like islamophobia and that there's there aren't some voters and republican voters who are thinking like well i don't want to vote for the guy not because he's muslim but because i think he's jihadist like i'm sure there's that out there but do i think trump hammering it by calling him muhammad and jihad is like do i think that's helping no i don't know there are ways there's subtler ways to be racist and even the rogers campaign can't get out of their own way with this so a few weeks ago they ran this ad with this um iranian american michigander who had had this moment with abdul at a town hall that sort of went viral on the right and this was just this young iranian american man to camera saying um attacking abdul basically saying what's in all these other ads about his association with hassan you know these this completely false bullshit about relationships with the muslims brotherhood and terrorist financing all this other stuff that is in the ether in a lot of the right wing ads about him but then in that ad they end by saying i want someone who's going to stand up to the irgc so it's like i want someone i need a senator who's gonna be for this war in iran that everyone hates which is just because there is something like we debated this on text uh you me ben and tommy at some point but like they're having this person deliver the message as a way to sort of ally the accusations of racism in it and to and because the audience here is not necessarily arab american people in michigan it is white voters who may be susceptible to this but also are very maybe sensitive towards racism and to try to do it that way but they can't even do it there because then they basically turn it into a pro-iran war ad at the end yeah my view on all this is that like there's there's so many ads now that it's all just wallpaper at this point and that really for any race and in this race too for dual it's about like do voters just get this overall sense that he's too extreme you know and and the times poll says they do right yeah um and or at least some do you know well the more voters think abdul's extreme that rogers extremity is the only democratic candidate in the key senate races who has that challenge right right and so the challenge is um presenting abdul as the as close to a generic democrat as you can do you can um now that cuts both ways because like he's not a generic democrat in ways that i think are helping him in that poll right which is like he is better on economic messaging and health care than any other the senate democrats that they've tested right so you kind of it goes both ways on this but like i do think that's why i don't think any one ad is gonna do this or like you know be particularly effective or not i think it's just messaging about him and at the end of the day is messaging more like oh you know maybe he's a little further to the left than me but seems like he's a good michigander and he's gonna stand up for us and gonna like maybe try to put money in our pockets so i'm with him or yeah he seems a little too extreme right like that that to me is the end and i think all these ads contribute to it um and whatever happens on the debate stage if anyone sees it uh we will because we're gonna watch it but we're gonna watch it yeah this episode is brought to you by act blue if you've been listening to the pod you already know the stakes don't trust your campaign to amateurs act blue is the platform that's been powering democratic campaigns for over two decades giving candidates up and down the ballot the tools they need to fundraise organize build websites and win it's built for campaigns and proven by millions of donors and this year they've launched an organizing platform built specifically for the people doing the work act blue field tools taking back the house and winning local elections across the country comes down to these final weeks it happens now and the doors knocked and phone calls made by volunteers that energy is out there and act blue field tools is built to mobilize it at scale it's already helped 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maine uh state that he won a couple times um uh jackson also had a pretty good debate on tuesday which was fairly tame um but it also yielded just a priceless moment from woman of the people susan collins let's listen senator collins has been a government employee her entire life she's always had health care she's always had uh you know a steady income coming in that's not the way it is for most of us i mean health care is a real challenge and she's made it worse by advancing the big beautiful bills first of all i have not been insured my whole life i spent a year when i was running for governor in 1994 where i could not afford health insurance 22 years ago when i was first running for office 32 years ago john oh god i'm old fuck yes yes 32 years 32 years ago when i was first running for office there was a brief moment when i did not have government health care it's so funny because there are two arguments that the jackson campaign is making about susan collins one is she's gonna she's a trump stooge she's gonna do help trump help the republicans or a democratic state don't do that the other one is that she's been in office forever she's been a public she's been in government forever and not enough has changed and so she responds to this question of saying look and she does it with the tone of gotcha you stepped in at troy jackson i'm going to show you that 32 years ago i briefly briefly took a break between my taxpayer-funded salary to try to get another taxpayer-funded salary and in that sabbatical while i was trying to get another government job i did not i dealt with the hardship true hardship and all of you former candidates can understand how hard that would be you were alive. 32 years ago when I did this. Truly one of the more amazing moments. Yeah. Like, I know that everyone, and I heard you and Tommy talk about this on Pod Save America Only Friends, which is our secret episode of Pod Save America that you can all get if you subscribe at cricket.com slash friends and become a subscriber to Friends of the Pod, get all kinds of other benefits, and you support the work we're doing here at Cricket Media, which is trying to get people involved in politics. Anyway, that's just a digression. Much like Susan Collins' digression from government healthcare back in 1994 for a few months. But when you guys did this, there was the whole road salt moment in that debate, too, where at one point she's bragging, too, that I didn't support this trade war because I got road salt off the tariff list with Canada. And then Troy Jackson's like, you can't eat road salt. And everyone said that's a big moment, which it was a fine moment, I thought. But I think this moment, this is every, this is every argument about Susan Collins and every argument you would ever want to make against a Republican in this environment. The road salt thing, which as you mentioned, Tommy, I talked about, but like you're right, it's not, this is not like where's the beef moment in debate history. It's a good moment. But then I saw a clip today of Troy Jackson doing a press avail. And the question was, Troy, Susan Collins' campaign says that you are not giving her enough credit with your road salt, road salt attack. Like it doesn't give the full breadth of everything she's done for Maine. And he's like, great. I'm glad you got road salt. Road salt's important. That's not enough. Do more. Seriously. I mean, my vibe, the vibe I got from Susan Collins watching that debate, and it actually made me angrier, is that like she seemed so offended to even be on that stage having to answer for her time in public office and have to actually, work to run again for reelection for her fucking 10th term in office. It's not that much, but whatever it is, she's been there for 38 years now. So she wants another six, even though she promised she would only run for two terms, broke that promise. And how dare you question how much I've done for this state, even though, or how dare you question my independence, even though I've actually voted with Donald Trump and the Republicans 95% of the time. And all the times that I brag about my independence, it's when the Republicans, didn't need my vote so I could performatively be independent, so I could win reelection. - Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's, she, look, she is a tough person to beat. She does suck. She is giving off the vibes of the kind of incumbents who go down in years like this. - I know, she is, she is. How are you feeling about that race? Reid has a question here. I'm gonna ask it like, I was gonna ask it like it's mine, but it's not mine. He said, in Obama's endorsement video, he tells Democrats, do not sit this one out. Do you think that reflects any real turnout concerns at the campaign? Is that what the campaign is seeing? Or is that just, quote, unquote, my anxiety? I'm not saying that I'm sanguine about this race, but it's- - Oh, you're less anxious than Reid? Fucking congratulations. - Yeah, no, I have plenty of concerns about everything. Turnout is not, maybe turnout will be a new one, but it was not one of the fun ones I was thinking about for me. - I think it, I don't, having, you know, you and I both been around the writing of these videos. I don't think that that was necessarily a specific line, like based on polling, but it is true. And we have, this has been sort of mysterious to both of us, that there are a significant number of people in Maine who seem not to like Troy Jackson. - Yeah, that's my biggest worry. - Including some Democrats. And so I think a little, whether they're people who supported Plattner, who didn't like Plattner being gone, or the process by which we got here, or people who were supporting Mills, who don't like any of this, and Mills and Jackson do not like each other. And as of like two weeks ago, Mills had not endorsed Jackson, and Jackson had not asked for the endorsement. Everyone get over your shit and let's try to win this race. So I think there is some sense or fear maybe that some of the people who are not enthusiastic about Jackson for some reason, because of how this process played out, may sit out. And so just like get in here, get in the fight. I don't know if that's a real concern or not, but if I was trying to find a reason why that line would be in there, that would be it. - Yeah, I would say to all the Maine Democrats out there, I know it's been a rough one, but look to Michigan. They had an extremely divisive primary, and you had Gretchen Whitmer was out there with Abdul this week. Haley Stevens has been saying great things. Like all the, Dana Nessel, like all the Michigan Democrats have been coming together. Alyssa Slotkin appeared with Abdul. Like everyone who was on either side of the primary, Mallory Morrow, they've all come together to really work hard to try to get Abdul elected. And I really wish, I do think that Troy Jackson would probably benefit from more Maine Democrats and national Democrats kind of, you know, 'cause like Maine is the kind of state that, again, it wants to go Democratic. Those voters want a Democratic Senate. That's what they're telling even the New York Times poll that showed Collins ahead. You had people, most people wanting a Democratic Senate. So like, I feel like the Democrats there just have to be reminded that like, this is our guy, and this is our ticket to a Democratic Senate and not a Republican Senate. - I mean, having said all of that, I mean, Troy Jackson has like, I think it's around a three point lead in the polling average right now. Although Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report said the other day, or said today, that he hears there's a Washington Post poll coming out, that's gonna have Collins ahead. - He didn't say that, though. - He didn't say that? - No, Dan, people are so fucking annoying. He said, I hear there's, I think there's a Washington Post poll- - Oh, and if it shows that. - That's likely coming, and maybe it will show what I think is what's going to happen in this race, which is Susan Collins pulling ahead. But like, but it's weird that like, why would the post-shore poll people like, do a poll, now it's Thursday, that it's not out, but they would like give an early poll to Charlie Cook, like several days before they put it out? - No, it's not that they would do that. It's the way the Cook process works. It's a bunch of, they have a lot, they do a lot of like data analysis, but one of the things is, and I've done this before back, way, way back in the day, is you come in, and you're like in an open dialogue with the people who do the Senate race ratings, and so it's possible, like the way I interpreted this was, and this, maybe this is just like Garble, is, there are times when you know, like a campaign knows that what the poll, it has a general idea that the poll's going to show something one way or the other, and that they, you could, like, they are trying, you want to influence those ratings because it can lead to more donations and more attention on your race. So I can see- - Maybe one of the campaigns told Charlie Cook, we think a poll's coming, that's bad. - Yeah, or told the people who, like Charlie Cook sort of, I think, he doesn't, he just writes columns now, but like the woman who does, Jessica Taylor, I think her name is, who does the Senate race ratings, I think they probably told her. Maybe it was all sponsored, this is all bullshit, and they're just, there's a poll coming, and were it to show this, it would be the second. And if the poll after that showed it, it would be the third. - Yeah. - So who knows? - Again, who knows, by the time you're listening to this, we could wake up tomorrow. - Yeah, the poll could be out. - The poll will be there. - It could not be out. We don't know. - No sound like idiots or not. - The night after you listen to this, there'll be another debate, 'cause they do like, it's basically, they have the same- - Four, four main debates. - And two in a week. - It's so bizarre. - They have the same schedules as like- - It's like a playoff, it's like- - The NBA/WMA playoffs, yes. Play one night, you're on one night, off one night. - Wild. In Iowa, there was a debate Wednesday night in Iowa, Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson debated. Like Mike Rogers, Hinson is a Republican who wants credit for breaking with Trump without actually being willing to make the break. In this case, it is voting to rein in the Iran war. - How do you define successful and immediate, and why did you vote against a resolution in Congress to call for the war to end? - We do need to bring it to an immediate and successful end, and to me, that means not allowing them to have a nuclear weapon, and making sure that we're working with and protecting our allies in the region. I trust in our US military, the greatest fighting force in the world, to bring this to a close as quickly as possible, 'cause I know people are getting squeezed. - So why vote against the resolution? - I don't think we need another resolution, and I certainly don't wanna see the president not be able to do an orderly end to this war. - You think that's gonna fly? I don't, John, I don't. It's the same thing. It's the same thing, where it's like she's trying to break with Trump, but can't actually do it, because you just wanna anchor Trump, and this is sort of the prison that he's put all of these Republicans in. - Yeah, that's probably the, I think for all of these Senate races, that seems like the closest one to me, because that's the one that's had Turk down the most, or at least tied, and it feels like, and Rob Sand in the governor's race is so far ahead, and all these polls still have Turk and Hinson either tied, or one of them like one or two points ahead. - Turk is an awesome candidate in every way, shape, or form, but he performs a little bit more like a, he's just not performing a generic Democrat, but in these other races where Democrats are just exceeding the generic ballot or the political environment, they are candidates who are incredibly well known, like Sherrod Brown, like Roy Cooper, like Mary Peltolla, who have a brand independent. Turk doesn't have that, 'cause he was just a state legislator and isn't known as well, so he is a little more uphill battle, and Hinson also performs a little bit more like a generic Republican 'cause she's not particularly well known, so you don't have, she is an incumbent Republican, but it's not the same as like a senator. - I think she has it even better than that, because she's, like, yes, she's a member of Congress, but before she was a member of Congress, she was local Iowa television. So like people knew her as not a politician, which is the best way to be known. - Yes, and this is a little bit like when people worry about Minnesota. It's one of the things that Michelle Tafoya has is she is a media savvy outsider, but she's also a little bit more open about it. Like, you develop a relationship, like, it's why Carrie, like even though she obviously lost by a lot, it's why she got to where she was, with voters. And that gives her a little bit of a leg up here. But I think Rob Sand may have coattails, which will help Turk. That would be the key. Last thing before we get to Lovett's conversation with Angie Nixon. The Wall Street Journal has a wild new story about Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump's ambassador to Greece, former Fox News host, ex-fiance of Don Jr., ex-wife of Gavin Newsom. According to Signal messages reviewed by the journal, Trump donor Eric Dieters offered Guilfoyle a million dollars to use her influence with the Trump administration to help with his various tax, legal, other issues. Guilfoyle bragged to Dieters that everyone from cabinet secretaries to Kash Patel gets right back to her. Then just before her hearing, she asked Dieters to secretly pay off her $100,000 Amex bill. The message said, quote, you could just send it here. It won't show up anywhere. Followed by, quote, honey, please, I need you to get this done for me today. Dieters did not pay. And yesterday, he went on MS Now to speak his mind. Kimberly Guilfoyle is a grifter. Kimberly Guilfoyle, I have no doubt, has done. Missed her more than me. She's doing it right now in Greece. The only thing that bothers me about Don Jr. and Eric Trump is how they, along with their father, are getting rich out in the open with crypto and everything else. I'm a Midwest farm boy. I'm a good dude. I don't like their yuck yuck world. You couldn't pay me to go back to Mar-a-Lago. Wow. The New York Times should have interviewed him as part of that story. He's not going to the right diners in Western Michigan. Yeah. Yeah. Guilfoyle's lawyer is obviously disputing the authenticity of the messages. Sure. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail reports that the State Department is now investigating separate complaints about Guilfoyle's conduct as ambassador in Athens. The Dieter story was before she was ambassador, but when she got there, trouble, including an incident where she was, this is awesome, where she was allegedly drinking in Mykonos at 4 a.m., called her head of security because she wanted to get the money back. And she did. And she did. And she did. And she did. And she did. And she did. And she did. And she wanted more ice. She ran out of ice at 4 a.m. So she called her head of security. He did not answer because he was sleeping because it was 4 a.m. And because he didn't answer, she demoted him the next day. Marco Rubio declined to comment on all of this before a speech in Greece on Wednesday, where he praised her leadership. And here's how J.D. Vance handled the question right after he defined socialism. Do you have any reaction to a U.S. government official, in this case, a U.S. ambassador, asking someone to pay off debt in exchange to access to other government officials? Well, so with that hypothetical, Jen, obviously, I don't love that. But I don't know exactly who you're talking about. I don't know the full details. I don't love that. Who doesn't, Sean? It doesn't sound great. Now, if you told me it was a Democrat, I would condemn it pretty quickly. But I don't know. I don't know who it could be. Probably someone that I work with. Yes, it could. It probably falls under his purview as fraud czar, I'd say. Yeah, what the fuck fraud czar. Dan, what do you think about this story? There is so much in this story. So much. Every word is a joy. And we could talk about it. Treat yourself. Treat yourself to this story. Yes, treat yourself. It is funny that we did, we listened to a reaction that Marco Rubio had to this, where he was chastised. I think that we can only see the here, the clip out of here. But it seemed like they were asking him about it. And he's like, look, I'm not going to let you guys, you guys, the press be the only arbiters of truth here. So his argument is, I'm not going to listen to the newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch to tell me what's happening. That has the signal messages. Yes. Yeah. It's the thing that is that I love the most about it is that she might be the dumbest fucking criminal in the world where she keeps telling, like he keeps texting her like about the money she wants. And he, she keeps saying, stop papering this. Eric, I really wish you would stop papering all these things. And then another quote, it's unbelievable when we have a private arrangement with you that you would now CC a producer talking about money. Do not say we have any arrangement. The producer in question there was a Tucker Carlson producer because there was apparently an offer of a million dollars to get an appearance on a Tucker Carlson podcast, which never came to fruition. There was I think this might've been my favorite signal quote. What a nightmare. You'll literally cost me my ambassadorship. Stop writing. Oh, and then also very privately. She continued. If you write an email or a text about, I'm going to kill you because I love you, but you're so out of control. But she keeps telling him to stop texting, but she's telling him by texting. It's like at that point, she's like, I'm going to kill you. I'm going to kill you. Pick up the phone. Pick up the voice. Like do not text about this. Cause if you were to text about it, that would allow the police and the authorities to read the text and put us both in jail. Hit send. Uh, three sources say investigators are examining allegations, uh, involving potential substance abuse, private planes and helicopters, improper gifts, and Gilfoyle's relationship with an energy construction company. This is all alleged in the book. It's just a follow on to the incredible wall street journal piece. But also in the wall street journal piece, it talks about how after Trump lost, she tried to monetize her, set her roles, a mega icon into a business woman. She started a hair care product line. She started a high end champagne and vodka business, I think. And there was a pitch deck that she did for a dinner at Mar-a-Lago trying to raise a bunch of money for it, promising that they would get to $75 million in revenue in three years. And then she shut the business down like three weeks later. It's also like the whole, like, I need a hundred thousand dollars to pay off my Amex bill right now. Um, Sam Stein at the Bulwark interviewed this Dieter's guy as well, uh, today. And so I was watching a little bit of that. And, and Sam's like, well, why didn't she need this money? Like, she's not, she's like a, a person of means. Yeah. Like she has a lot, like millions of dollars. She has no debts on her public records. And, and Dieter's like, because it's her lifestyle. She's just like been living high on the hog over as ambassador to Greece. And she's fucking partying in Mykonos and doing all this shit. And so she's just like racking up these bills and just wants random donors to pay them off by promising influence in the Trump administration. You have to, to be ambassador, she's got to send all of her financial records to the Senate and including your debt. So she's going to have to report this a hundred thousand dollar Amex debt, which would have been quite embarrassing. And so she's trying to get that off the books before that makes sense. But also, in this story, it says that when she got divorced from Don Jr, she tried to sell their, their mansion in Florida, I believe for like seven, they bought it for $7 million. She tried to sell it for $30 million. I think thinking that some like, you know, someone tried to buy influence, the Trump administration would overpay like four X, the price for the price for that. I mean, a Russian oligarch paid for Don Jr's next wedding. So someone can step in there and, and, you know, pay up, pay a little higher price for the house. And, but then she had, I guess, Don Jr ended up buying it out, buying her out from it for a much, much cheaper price, which is why she needed the a hundred thousand dollars to pay her Amex bill. I would say, I can't imagine she'll be ambassador for long after this, but, um, I don't know. She might know too much. That's, that's why she's ambassador now. I know. That's what I was thinking. Cause I'm like, maybe she's going to go down. Cause like, who cares at this point about Kim Guilfoyle and that family, right? Like she's, but of course she could, you know, she was around for a lot of stuff. She's a lot of stuff. Yeah. So good times, good times. All right. When we come back, love it talks to Florida Senate candidate, Angie Nixon. Posse of America is brought to you by Tommy John. Fall is here, which means we're prioritizing comfort at the first sign of a chill in the air. And I don't want to think too hard about what I'm reaching for in my dresser, which is where Tommy John comes in. 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That's TommyJohn.com. Use the code crooked at checkout for 30% off your first order. Joining me now, it's Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee for Senate and in Florida. Angie, welcome to the pod. I am so excited to be with you today. Hey, pod. What up, chat? I don't know what the young people say nowadays. I don't know either. We're contemporaries. I have no idea. There are a lot of people who have written Florida off. It's shifted to the right. It's the beating heart of MAGA. It's hopeless. What do you say to those people? I would say they have not spent much time here in the state of Florida because we have been winning things for years here. You know, we just need people to just invest in our state. And folks are fed up right now as well. There are Republicans that are actually leaning into our campaign, our people power campaign. Folks are ready to work to build a new vision for this country where everyone has the opportunity to be healthy, prosperous and safe. And I'm excited about it. So in a response to J.D. Vance, we had talked about this on the show on Monday. You spoke movingly about growing up in a home with domestic violence, how it drives you to take on bullies. But when you posted the clip, you said something that I thought was really surprising. You said that you carried a lot of anger because of that violence and that you didn't realize how much it impacted you until this campaign. And I'm just curious what you recognized and what you feel like you learned about something so personal in your past in this political arena. Yeah, for sure. So I carried a lot of shame and embarrassment because, you know, my mom didn't want anyone to know. And so she passed that down to me and my brother. And I never recognized how I'm always like when I see people hurting, when I see people are scared or being picked on and bullied, I'm always like bucking up at them. And it wasn't until I had to really share my story about my childhood with like my senior advisor because they want to dig deep to see what drives you and things like that. And I put that story, you know, back in the back of my mind. And I just, it came out and I'm like, you know what, it is me. A lot of people have to deal with bullies growing up. And it has actually helped other women. They've come and started sharing their story to me. And it's something that we need to work to stomp out. Oftentimes people are afraid to share things when they're the victims or survivors of things. We see it right now with, we've seen it with like the Epstein files. We've seen it with what happened at Cornell, right? We saw it with what happened with a ton of other stories recently. And it's like, that happened to us, right? Like we didn't make that happen, right? And so we need to, we need to just take it on and like, turn it around and talk about how we're surviving from it and how we're pushing forward to make things better. I sometimes think with the people that are at Trump rallies, the people that have embraced MAGA, even when it's not delivering for them, even when they have experienced hardships, right? They're paying for the tariffs. They're paying higher gas prices, higher diesel prices. That this idea of not demanding more for ourselves, not demand, not, not truly accepting that we didn't deserve the pain and sacrifice and loss in our life. Like, I do think that's a, that's a little bit of the, what undergirds some of the kind of anger that you see on the right as well. And I'm wondering what it's like when you're talking to Republicans, even Republicans that might still see themselves as being, you know, on their team and pro-Trump about what's happening in Florida. Yeah. So thank you for that question. I actually had a similar question today, just a few minutes ago, but it was from young people in regards to them not voting and just feeling like nothing would change. And I tend to tell people that we deserve better. Like you deserve healthcare that you don't go bankrupt getting because medical debt is the leading cause of bankruptcy. You deserve to have fully funded public schools. You deserve, to have groceries you can afford. Like you work hard and you should be able to afford to live in this country. And that's not what's happening right now. And so how I talk to people on the other side, so to speak, is I let them know that they are profiting off of us fighting with each other. They are profiting off of us being divided and distracted because that allows us to live in this country. And so how I talk to people on the other side, so to speak, is I let them know to distract us from the fact that they want to privatize social security because they want to make money off of it. How, like, why are we allowing Republicans to move us to a place where they are privatizing social security? There should be no profit to be had with our taxpayer dollars that should go towards ensuring that our seniors can live their final days in peace and in good health. And I let them know that we should not be operating with a scarcity mindset. This is America. This is the land of abundance. The problem is the folks with the money and the abundance are hoarding it at the top. Like, they are trying to keep us down so that they can have more money on top of more money. And so I let folks know that they don't have to be scared. They don't have to be scared of other people that don't look like them. Like, this is, we are a multiracial working class. And honestly, it's honestly like kind of a class war at this point right now. And we have to all come together and let these billionaires and corrupt corporations know that we are the workers. We are working harder than ever, and we're struggling. Just to stay ahead, just to get ahead. And meanwhile, they're working less and less and less, and they're privatizing everything so that they can make more money or so they can also trade stocks that we don't even have enough money to trade in the first place. And it's like, this, it doesn't have to be this way, y'all. Like, it doesn't. We can start electing people who are exactly like us. We can start electing school bus drivers and teachers and fast food and people that work at telemarketing firms. Like, imagine if regular everyday people, you know, farmers, like, imagine if those people were our elected officials. They would actually push for policies that would help benefit regular everyday people. But what we're seeing right now is that the ultra wealthy are the ones that are in charge. And of course, they're going to pass. Big BS bills that, you know, give them massive amounts of tax breaks. Of course, they are okay with working family taxes in the form of tariffs, right? Of course, they're fine with those things. But we can change this all around if we elect regular hardworking everyday people and folks who've retired, because I've been called out on that here in the state of Florida, because, you know, we have a large retiree class of folks. You know, what's interesting is Florida has this reputation, as being the home of senior citizens. But I was, I went and I was just like looking into it, like where, what states do have these big populations of seniors? And yes, Florida is up there, but it's also states that are rural in part because they've lost their young people because the young people can't afford to live there and get jobs there anymore. And part of that is obviously what we're seeing with, you know, Trump and sort of tariffs and the hardships he's visited on some of his biggest supporters. But, to that point, I saw that you pointed out that Donald Trump and Ashley Moody are in ways more aligned with communism than you, right? They're attacking you all the time as a socialist, but there are ways in which they are kind of leading. Oh, absolutely. So what do you mean by that? Okay. Going after political opponents, right? Calling for the assassination of sitting Congress members, right? Stealing taxes. Taxpayer dollars to push propaganda. And we saw that with Ashley Moody, who stole $10 million from sick kids that was supposed to go towards their Medicaid funding. And then we are seeing that now with this Trump TV network that Donald Trump is using and also these, the taxpayer money that they're using for paid ads. Also the fact that if, if they talk so much trash about Cuba and Venezuela, you know, rightfully so, but they're deporting people back there. Like that is crazy to me. And then on top of that, to go on to Venezuela and to be okay with taking over the, taking control of their oil and helping decide who sells what, knowing good and well, his son and his family and friends have vested interest in selling this oil and, and then cozying up to the leader of North Korea and cozying up to the leader of Russia. And it's like, sir, like, is that what we're doing? And then also they're saying that I want to take over people's businesses. When Donald Trump and this administration has taken stocks, like they have taken percentages of several companies here in this country. I'm a small business owner. I don't want nobody coming to take my business. Absolutely not, right? And so it is so mind boggling that they are trying to paint me as the person that they are, and I'm pushing back against that. And then they say, I want to abolish prisons and I want to defund the police. Why would I want to do that when I want Donald Trump and Ashley Moody locked up in jail? Come on, they did some things that they deserve to be locked up for. And so absolutely not. I believe we need to abolish for-profit prisons because why are we privatizing prisons and allowing folks to capitalize and exploit people's labor? And this is the biggest shakedown ever of a president, right? This is the largest grift ever. Every which way he can monetize something as he's president, he is doing, he is actively doing. Now, that does not stop Vance from attacking you as a socialist. What set up this controversy was his saying that you don't belong in America. And you've responded by saying that you, as you just said, you own a business. You've called yourself a capitalist who believes we need some strong regulations. But you did join DSA in June of this year in a state where socialists as a label carries a lot of historical baggage, to say the least. And I'm curious, like, put aside what Ashley Moody is saying, what J.D. Vance is saying. Is this coming up for you on the ground with voters? Because whatever the, you know, the sort of the political expedient attack, there are people who legitimately say, look, I don't, I come from a place where socialism is for me, my family being persecuted, my being impoverished and having to flee. I worry about voting for someone who's affiliated with socialism. What do you say to people that- You know, And so what I would tell people is they should look at my track record and what I've done and stood for. And that all I want for them is to be able to decide what they want their communities to look like and what they want their economies to look like. The people that keep pushing this division and this rhetoric that I'm trying to come do all of this horrible stuff are like, you know, my opponents and the media. When I go out and talk to people in Little Haiti, like, who are voting for me, and or in Little Havana, who are voting for me, what they say, and in Venezuelan communities, what they say is they want someone who is, who's going to give them quality health care. They want someone who's going to lower their costs. They want someone that is going to fight against bullies and dictators. And that's what I tell folks. Like, I literally was arrested by, Because of, like, a dictator-type action against me, right? And I let them know that I don't want anyone to have to worry about that type of stuff. I don't believe in any, allowing any type of oppressive government to be in power, right? And so I let them know to, you know, check my track record and that I have their back. And that has been resonating. We've been able to cut through the noise and the disinformation because of it. As part of your housing policy, as a result for a national rent freeze and an eviction moratorium, this is a big, complicated country with very different housing issues in different regions. Just honestly, like, oh, that doesn't totally make sense to me, right? Like, in COVID, we're in an emergency, but places should be able to decide how they're going to build and expand housing. Yeah. And so I want to be clear, like, that is, this is, this is temporary. It is temporary. And I think I need to add to the website and put, like, temporary. Okay. Because I am a, I'm a landlord myself. My first home that I was able to purchase as a single mom, I'm actually renting it out to some friends. And I don't overcharge them a lot more. It's actually like 200 more than what my mortgage is. And that is in case something breaks down and that type of stuff. But what I know is that I opened up Facebook today and a guy said, oh, my God, my rent up went, my rent went up $350 to, like, I have to sign and they want to charge me $350 more. Property insurance then go up $350 more, right? And so what we're seeing right now are a lot of these private equity firms. These for-profit companies that own these homes and these, this, that are renting these apartments out, they're just doing things simply because they can and people don't have anywhere else to go. And so what I am saying right now is while we have these working family taxes on us in the form of tariffs, while we are still in this thoughtless war that is causing gas and diesel prices to go up and then causing everything else to go up, there needs to be a freeze on rent for, like, a year. Like a year or two, right? So that people can not be stressed out about not having a place to stay. And it's kind of similar to what happened during COVID, right? And so we, like, yo, people are hurting. People are, like, dying on the streets. People are having to cramp themselves up because they can no longer afford rent. Or people are taking food from their children's mouths because they got to keep rent. Or they got to keep a roof over their heads. And so what I'm saying is, like, let's stop raising the rents for a second, right? So that people can get caught up. I also believe that we need to lower the interest rates on credit cards for a little bit as well. So people, like, people have, like, I saw on threads the other day, a woman was like, y'all tell me how I can pay for my rent on my credit card. Why do people have to pay for their rent on their credit card? Why do people have to pay for their rent on their credit cards right now? Something is broken. Something is wrong. But then you see people in these companies and these billionaires making record profits, number one, because they're not paying people what they owe them. They're not paying people living wages. And then on top of that, the people aren't getting paid living wages. And everything else is going up. And so I am ready to start, like, looking out for just everyday people here in this country. And not just looking out. Not just looking out for these ultra-wealthy folks. Like, folks are hurt. Like, they are at their breaking point. Like, they are. And I am concerned. I know someone, a guy lost his job a few months ago. And then I read that he, like, killed his kids and killed his wife and killed himself. Like, people are taking their lives because they feel so hopeless and, like, nothing is going to change. And I talked to my friend a few weeks ago. And she's like. Like, she doesn't even want to get out of bed because the doom, the cloud that is hanging over her about if she loses her job. Because she sees people getting laid off. If she loses her job, this is her home. She just bought this home five years ago. She doesn't know what she's going to do. The job market is not looking too good. And so, like, those are the things that folks are stressed out about. And so that's why I say, you know, a temporary rent freeze. And, um, moratorium on evictions. So, uh, Moody won't debate you. Nope. She says it's because she doesn't want to give you a platform. Because you're such a, you know, you're just, it's just, people can't handle it, I guess. She doesn't, it seemed that if she thought you were such a dangerous, had so many dangerous ideas, she'd want to argue with you about them. But no, she doesn't. How are you going to get in front of enough people in the homestretch here? Uh, if you don't get an opportunity to, to, uh, talk to her on that stage? I mean, we're, we're going out and talking to as many folks as we can. This is a people's power, grassroots, distributive program where there's, Sarah gets out, spreading our message. Um, our social media is popping. We're interviewing wherever we go. Uh, we're trying to hit all 67 counties before the, uh, general election. And, um, we're just going to continue to get amplified. Thank you. Thank you for having me on your show. It's good. It's been great to talk to you. It's also like, well, you know, there's been a lot of like, oh, how did, how did Angie Nixon, uh, uh, pull off this upset in the primary? And then you see, do you talk to you or you watch your video? Just, you're so charismatic. It's really intoxicating. It's really, it's very intense. I'm just myself. I'm just a Southern girl with a Southern drawl. I've talked to a lot, I've talked to a lot of boring politicians. Uh, it's part, you know, gladly. Um, so, uh. You're from Jacksonville. You spent most of your life there. What's it been like campaigning across the whole state? What have you learned about Florida? Right? Like Florida is a big, strange place. The more North you go, the more South it is. The. the further south you go, the more international it is. And I would say the more west you go, the more rural it is. And I love my state, man. It's like 20 states in one. And also adding a few extra countries as well. And we have beautiful beaches and parks. We have beautiful people. We have such good culture and good swag. We still have southern hospitality here. And that sweet tea will still get you, might send you into a diabetic coma real quick. But I love my state. Oh my God, I love my state, which is why I'm fighting so hard to be able to represent it. I just get so frustrated. I'm like, I'm not going to be able to represent it. I'm not going to represent it because it's folks like Ashley Moody who are in power right now, unelected Ashley Moody. And my office, my state, because I'm still a state lawmaker, we have to field so many calls and emails from people who have reached out to her or Rick Scott, and they haven't received a phone call back. And it's like, that is not what we need to represent us. We need someone who's going to be accessible, ethical, and someone that they can trust. And I pride myself on acting as though I work for people, like actually working for people. I don't believe that the constituents work for me. And that is how Ashley Moody operates. And I work for folks and whatever it is that they want me to do, if it's within reason and if it makes sense, as far as like it helps improve the quality of life for people, I am going to work to do it. Well, Angie Nixon, thank you so much for being here. Good luck in this next month. And I'll just say my parents live in Boynton Beach, Florida. And I would say the outcomes there are either canceling each other's votes or potentially, potentially getting you two votes. I will work on that. I will work on that. Please, please do. And I would, I would say, you know, because I am from Florida. I do love those Jaguars. I'm looking forward to us going to the Super Bowl. But I still also love the Tampa Bay Bucks and the Miami Dolphins. And then also, folks should follow me on social media, Angie for Florida. Go to my website, AngieNixon.com. But thank you so much for having me on. Hey to your parents down there. I want to be your U.S. Senator. And so I would really love and appreciate it if you voted for me. Angie Nixon, thank you so much. Thank you so much. That's our show for today. Thanks to Angie Nixon for coming on. I'll be back in the feed on Sunday with our old friend, David Axelrod. Talk to everybody then. Bye, everyone. Pods of America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith with Ree Churlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hefcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffitt, Adam Lippert, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Farrow, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. SimpliSafe offers real-time home security with AI-powered cameras that detect threats and alert live US-based agents within 30 seconds to intervene.
  2. Unlike traditional systems, SimpliSafe stops break-ins before they occur by speaking directly through cameras to deter intruders and calling 911 when needed.
  3. The CEO of the podcast personally uses and praises SimpliSafe for its ease of use, quick setup, and remote control via smartphone.
  4. Over 6 million people trust SimpliSafe with their home security, and a current promotion offers 60% off professional monitoring.
  5. The podcast highlights the Republican Party’s instability ahead of the midterms, citing declining voter support, internal divisions, and damaging rhetoric from Trump and his allies.
  6. Polls show a growing number of Trump voters regret their support, indicating disengagement and a weakening Republican brand.
  7. Trump’s attempts to bribe voters with financial checks and his inflammatory statements on Iran and AI are seen as counterproductive and damaging to the GOP.
  8. Conservative candidates like JD Vance and Ken Paxton face criticism for misleading messaging, poor policy focus, and attempts to exploit divisiveness rather than address voter concerns.

Summary:

SimpliSafe is presented as a cutting-edge home security solution that uses AI-powered cameras and live US-based agents to stop break-ins before they start—offering real-time alerts and intervention in under 30 seconds. The CEO of the podcast endorses it for its ease of use and reliability, highlighting a current 60% discount for new users. Meanwhile, the discussion shifts to political dynamics ahead of the midterms, where Republican vulnerabilities are exposed.

Polls show a significant number of Trump voters regret their choice, signaling widespread disengagement. Trump’s campaign tactics—such as offering financial checks, making inflammatory claims about Iran, and promoting a false "super intelligence" narrative—are criticized as ineffective and damaging. Key GOP candidates like JD Vance and Ken Paxton face backlash for performative, confusing, or divisive messaging, while internal party divisions and poor communication strategies undermine their credibility.

The episode underscores that the Republican brand is in decline, and voters are increasingly disenchanted, especially among younger demographics. Despite Trump’s continued attempts to rally supporters through emotional appeals and promises, the data and public sentiment suggest a growing disconnect. The analysis concludes that the party’s inability to address core issues and its reliance on divisive rhetoric may lead to a significant electoral shift.

Political debates in states like Michigan and Maine highlight the challenges of maintaining voter trust amid polarization. Ultimately, the episode blends a product recommendation with a deep dive into the fragility of Republican political momentum.

FAQs

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More than 6 million people trust SimpliSafe with their home security.

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CrookedCon is a live political event in Washington, D.C. featuring debates, discussions, and panels on key issues like AI, campaign strategies, and political trends.

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