MAGA Pollster Thinks Texas, Ohio and Even KANSAS Could Turn Blue (w/ Rich Baris)
31m 23s
Rich Barris, a political analyst and author, examines the decline of Donald Trump’s political appeal in the 2024 election cycle, arguing that his shift from domestic-focused policies in the first term to a foreign policy-heavy second administration has alienated core MAGA voters. He highlights key policy failures—such as the handling of immigration, the Epstein controversy, and the war in Ukraine—as symbolic betrayals that undermined trust. These issues, combined with a lack of authentic engagement, have led to a fracture within the Republican base. Barris also critiques the GOP’s overreliance on past successes, pointing to polling misses in red states like Michigan and Kansas, where demographic changes and gerrymandering have created new vulnerabilities. He notes that younger voters, who were energized by Trump’s early campaign, now view the GOP as disconnected from their concerns. Meanwhile, the political landscape is shifting toward non-white working-class voters, with Trump’s earlier gains in these groups now being lost. Barris concludes that both major parties are failing to meet the real needs of modern voters, especially young Americans, leading to the potential rise of alternative movements like the DSA. The discussion is framed against a backdrop of casino promotional content, including Crown Coins and Chumba Casino, which promote real-money wins but are not central to the political analysis.
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conditions apply hey everybody welcome to bulwark takes i'm tim miller uh we've got a fun one for
you here uh he is the director of big data poll host of inside the numbers with the people's
pundit and author of a forthcoming book burn it down what the polls say young americans really
want it's rich barris and rich i need to you know you're on you're on a lib show now so we're gonna
have to do a trigger warning okay we gotta do a trigger warning rich is it maga kind of you're
like a maga true believer
like a pure maga not like one of those republicans that's pretending to be maga
you know i i think that's somewhat fair you know i think it's it would be fair to count and by the
way thank you for having me on tim i really i'm looking forward to this and back at you it's hard
for me to get magas to come on so i appreciate you genuinely that that's sad you know i was
saying before you know that i am old enough to remember when we used to talk to each other i'm
going to be 45 i'm not i'm not a big fan of the environment where we suddenly don't um but i think
it's fair to say that as a politician i'm not a big fan of the environment where we suddenly don't
talk to each other i'm not a big fan of the environment where we suddenly don't talk to each other
people changed my views over the years so i think i got a little bit more defensive you know i think
that's that's totally fair to say of the people that we interview and the people that came to
even get me to to remember what side of the tracks i came from yeah well you um as part of your work
you correctly forecast that trump would get 306 electoral votes in 2016 2024 your state polling
projected trump would win with 312 electoral votes
ptsd
for most of our viewers on that but those two things did come to pass um this time i dm'd you
because you're you're bearish i've got bearish barris was my what was my headline for this on
on the maga chances and republican chances what what's what do you assess is different that's
happening this time versus 16 and 24 where you thought republicans are going to do well
look and i know that uh mag is going to hate me saying this but uh what maga has become or the
the issues that they're championing
uh it are not the issues that that delivered those electoral college wins to to president
trump and i i think if we're having an honest discussion you know you could be a supporter
of the president and you can still be honest or you know i don't just don't see what sycophancy
how that helps anybody i mean ultimately it's my job to convey what people are telling me and
they wanted the old trump back you know trump won 1.0 was was really volatile as far as the media
cycle and there was a lot of boat rocking going on some of it was his fault some of it wasn't you
know i mean he met with a lot of pushback his fault a lot of the twitter accounts right people
said back then that you know i like what he's doing i just wish he wouldn't be on twitter
by the time we get to 24 i think so much has happened with the covid lockdowns which even
though they they started under him he became a quick critic of it um and then in the biden
administration what it what had transpired
uh trump was big on anti-war and he was always trying to meet with putin and settle things and
kind of tone down uh russifo russophobia if you want to call it in that you know whatever you
want to call it in this country and and i don't want to say normalize relations with russia but
certainly try to do what even hillary clinton and barack obama did with the big reset button
during the obama administration at the time it wasn't as appreciated and then by the time we
get to 24 it really did you know come to pass just a people felt like you know what i think we
might have had it a little bit better than we thought can we go back and have a redo but this
administration has not been a redo of 1.0 in many ways yeah let's talk about those ways because i
think maybe um uh the way you assess it is different from you know what what you might hear on this
channel most often so like what what are the ways in which you think he has either betrayed or
strayed from um you know kind of his campaign promises in 16 well i i think a lot of this is
about optics which is why we started the white house
focus tracker and the poll that that we do we release every month because it it just came from
an idea of what people were telling us during the interviews and a common theme that train that just
kept coming up over and over again and you could see it if you don't read the transcripts the
interviews you can see in the word clouds clear as day they thought that the first trump
administration was much more focused on domestic policy and americans aren't uh you know they're
not stupid they know that the president's job has a lot in the name they're america first you know
look i mean i feel like i i have a hard time speaking to some people on the right
who are being intellectually dishonest with themselves i mean it's in the name guys i mean
you can go and bring up an oprah interview from the 1980s when i was probably five and most of
those millennial men who switched and voted for donald trump in 24 and they really propelled him
in many ways uh they might not even remember that interview when he said i would be tougher with
iran or some obscure thing about iran not being
able to have a nuclear weapon this this is a man this is a candidate and two-time president
who undecided this is really not disputable he ran against no new wars in the middle east and
i think the first three to five months and our polling showed it the first three to five months
he was riding high and people loved what he was doing especially younger people which is what
the book is all about republicans are going to run out of a coalition soon if they don't
build on what he he started to build in 24 and a lot of those gains are squandered because
of the direction they took tim i mean they decided by spring uh certainly by summer uh before charlie
was was uh was killed to conduct operation midnight hammer and that was kind of like a ptsd
moment for a huge part of trump's coalition and they just thought here we go again no please and
they gave him a lot of grace and they waited and waited and waited but he never took that pivot
back to the domestic there's been no manufacturing
tours the way we saw in the first trump administration it just seemed like he was
able to juggle the two in the first administration differently and he's been consumed by foreign
policy since operation midnight hammer i mean literally just today right before we started
this interview trump sent out a bleat that's what i call the truth social posts i can't call them
so you know he sent out a bleat saying maybe we should rename it the straight of trump and it's
like this is one of these things where i don't know man you tell me if it feels to me like if
in 2019 2018
he had done one of his like kind of cheeky trolly trump things about some foreign country and how
we're going to rename it after america a lot of the base would have laughed and said that's a troll
like in this context it's like straight of trump like what are you talking about like why do you
care so much about that how did you like the straight of everything was fine until you started
this war i don't think you would mind me saying i just showed the chairman in uh bucks uh a response
the transcript response from
a 30 year old male that we interviewed in bucks county this is a low propensity voter but this is
exactly the kind of guy he's the reason donald trump won bucks won northampton um you know they're
a little bit different obviously demographically in erie county but so many areas where he did
better than um than the senate candidate did and mccormick you know he won he ultimately pulled
it off but it was kind of for pennsylvania for a republican it was kind of a comfortable win
for donald trump and this is the guy who did it and tim
it was during the time when do you remember when he sent out and they wound up taking it down but
he sent out the truth post about uh everyone thought he he claimed he was like he didn't know
i thought it was a doctor and i was helping people do you remember that post yeah and it
became a jesus yeah yeah where clearly he was equating himself to the messiah um that gentleman
just basically said very calm very collected he said you know i'm just over this it was cute
at one point it was cute and funny
when i thought he was doing something for me and i thought he cared still it's not cute anymore and
that's really what it comes down to when you're helping people or people at least think that you're
you care about their needs and you're addressing their needs then they'll they'll tolerate a lot
but when you know you feel they feel like you've kind of gone off on you know the
the wrong side of the path here it's just not cute anymore it gets old
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betrayal of the base i'm going to kind of run through the map here in a second but on an issue
that uh let's just say people wouldn't have counted this on the list um among you know my
friends when i'm on nicole wallace's show but it's it's interesting to hear the perspective of people
with the base and one of the one of the you might not use the word betrayal one of the things that
you talk about how people were let down about is that you know you have milo getting detained this
week you have the tate brothers getting detained um but not fauci uh and i do wonder like where
like how the kind of base feels about that stuff like it's not just kind of the big policy issues
where kind of mega voters and democratic voters aren't happy with the war like there are some
particular issues where like the mega voters wanted follow through on that he's not doing
could you just talk about those kind of mega world
issues you know the point i was making is not only that milo or the tape brothers are so beloved by
everybody who voted for donald trump it's just that they're very symbolic and especially on this
issue of immigration they're very symbolic of where i feel like this is a great example of
where things have gone wrong in the minds of many people uh milo should have went to his hearing
right i mean let's call it what it is but milo also was what you know is referred to on that
side is like og maga this was a guy no matter what is his persuasion was
which was not typical of a republican a follower of a republican candidate that kind of exactly was
the point about donald trump and maga where it was not the orthodox republican voting coalition it
was something different and milo was certainly part of that and he became a critic of the
president this administration because of the war and other things but immigration among them
so it seems to me you know the dhs which was formed after 9 11 to protect us um you know if
you would ask a typical Republican to vote for him he would say no because he was a Republican
or Trump voter which i think we got to draw a distinction there if you were to ask them
you know about dhs they would say sure they let over tens of millions of uh illegal immigrants
and didn't do their job god knows how many terrorists and they're deporting milo you know
it's just like the whole the whole thing is just completely a joke and they're actually taking
a victory lap about it on social media whereas they wanted him to continue to push in minnesota
right and when there was a lot of media blowback uh they feel like they're going to be able to
the president kind of backed off kind of gave in and everyone kind of smells an amnesty around the
corner with some of the things that that they're seeing you know support for maria salazar right i
mean so i i try to tell people this is not my position at all but it's interesting in one of
the focus groups we ran in florida like it's one of those things just to show you this is kind of
like a little bit of the you know magas from mars uh the you know pro-democracy coalition is from
venus side of this or like a guy in the focus group that was like i'm pissed about there not
being enough deportations like this could not be further from my view like the milo thing i kind of
laughed at i was like there are a million other more sympathetic people that i would point to
but like that said it is it's interesting like even in that area which you would think would
be a strength for him right now there's like a little bit of consternation there is within the
world i'm looking at his numbers on trust to handle do you approve or disapprove of trump
on immigration you remember in the first administration no matter how low his overall
approval fell
uh he always did well on the economy he always did well on immigration and these are issues
where he is underwater now and i mean that that to me just screams volumes and where is it coming
from because i've done these focus groups too i know exactly what you're talking about and i
actually had to do an entire we did multiple states and the idea was what kind of immigration
proposal would you even be able to pass and sorry for the dog um would you be able to pass without
ticking off about a quarter to make sure that you're not going to be able to pass on immigration
maybe 33 percent of MAGA. Is it even possible? Could you include some kind of riders involved
in that? And there's basically a chunk of them that will never be happy no matter what. You just
can't. There's not nothing is going to work, especially if you're talking about a pathway
to citizenship for those who came under Biden's administration. They feel like it's just a deal
breaker and that's it. But I mean, even the more moderate people were he couldn't win either way
because he wasn't clear on why he was deporting some of these people. And this was these were
simple fixes that the White House could have addressed. Here's what gets you on the deportation
list. Right. So you have Trump voters who are somewhat sympathetic still. They think the law
should be followed, but they don't want, you know, Gestapo's running around in masks, ripping people
out of the country. That was a huge problem. He had to just take the mask off to him and explain
to people why he was doing it more. Instead, you know, you feel people a lot of his he ticked off
both sides because he didn't.
And so those questions for the more moderate part of his voting coalition and he angered the more,
you know, hard line, you know, the core of MAGA. And I'm going to use the word hard line. Yeah,
he he he angered part of the base by not following through. So he took he tried to take that tepid.
I think I'll try to, you know, slide in between these two. And it just didn't work. And now we
are still in that when you talk to MAGA voters are kind of not really.
I, you know, I just think that set the tone. I, you know,
look, they weaponized the web scene, the Epstein issue, you know, so if they have anybody to blame
for this, it's themselves. Maybe they put cash in charge of the FBI after he was making, you know,
the Epstein black book, like his whole personal brand, you know, and Dan Bongino is right hand
man who built an entire rumble show saying, don't let go of this issue. Do not let go of this issue.
By the way, Dan apparently loves to attack me now. Look, even though even though it's been
reported to the club, he knew.
He knew I was right. So privately, he was saying, no, this is going to hurt us badly. But publicly,
he didn't have the spine to say it. It's just it's this is the problem. You have to pick a side
and stick on that side and be authentic to people. Otherwise, you just come across
as inauthentic. Voters are busy. They're not stupid. So they smell something here that they
don't like. And I've told the left this for years. They didn't listen. Now the right's not listening
either. I think the Epstein issue set the tone and we don't hear about it.
Like we used to. But we hear about it as it really did set a narrative, which we've given a name to.
It's like the Epstein class narrative that that Democratic candidates like Sherrod Brown are just
bludgeoning John Usted with. It's brilliant. It's smart. John Ossoff has been incredibly articulate
with this narrative. You don't have to get into the details. It just sets the tone. You understand
that it upset people. It was an issue that upset people because it was symbolic of a ruling class
that they feel like.
You know, doesn't play by the same rules, gets ahead at their expense and is never held
accountable when they're in trouble. So they walked right into their own trap. It's I've never
seen like it. And it just set the tone from from that point forward. I want to just do the map
really quick. But but you've been on polling misses. One of the things, you know, the the
bedwetters on the Democratic side, one of the things that they're concerned about, you look at
the midterms like, you know, things seem to be going pretty well. But there have been some polling
misses. There have been like times.
Where mega voters haven't been captured times where Democrats are doing better in the summer and
then in the fall, not as good. Like what what how do you kind of assess that? Like, do you think
that's still happening? Why was that happening? Yeah, I would just point out that, you know,
and there's a first time for everything. So knock on wood here. But, you know, we haven't had these
issues, which is why, you know, I'm sitting here. You're meaning, yeah, are the the body of work
that we've put out. I think we've done, you know, more.
We've done we've been we've performed better than most others. And when Republicans have been in
trouble, they we showed them in trouble when when they were doing better than the media and
university poll suggested. That's where we were. I think that there's valid reasons for people on
the left to be concerned about misses. There are. And if I were if if I was in that boat, I would
constantly be almost neurotic about whether MAGA voters would come out and spoil my night again.
But at the same time, they're,
you know, looking at the rights argument, which is that, well, we've been understated. There's been
a summer lull. That's their argument right now. There's always been this summer lull.
The truth is somebody like Elliott Morris, and I can't believe I'm saying this,
is actually right, that the truth is that we're cherry picking cycles to make our arguments work
instead of looking at about the totality of the data set. And the truth is that the
out of power party is usually the one who tends to gain a few points from this point until November.
So Democrats in 18, they they were they were only a few points ahead in our August polling,
and then they wind it to almost seven. They wound up winning by eight. In 22, Republicans were at
1.2, I believe, in our August poll, and then they got to about four. And, you know, I think, too,
we have to remember that Trump was on the ballot in some of these cycles. Patrick Graffini's
analysis wasn't wrong. I just think that we have to separate. There's a Republican coalition for
Trump. And then there's if you,
if you want to call it a Republican coalition when he's not on the ballot,
and it's a very big difference.
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Let's look at the map. You're saying something I've been saying.
So we'll start there. It's always nice to have agreement that
Yes. For all of the conversation and discussion about the Michigan Senate race and how much the Republican establishment and Fox wants to demonize Abdul, he's in very good shape to win.
And it's strange that Republicans are focusing their resources on that Senate race and not on trying to shore up some of these red states.
Seems like you agree with that. But as somebody who's predicted Trump to win twice in Michigan, why do you think Abdul is looking safe?
Folks, Bernie Sanders, I'm talking about polling misses, upset everybody's expectations, certainly Hillary Clinton's in 2016.
And which state did he do that in? That was the state of Michigan.
The older white vote, which has become so accustomed to we think about as part of the Republican coalition, is actually much more left wing in Michigan than people seem to understand.
And Trump was able to actually pull some of those voters away from Hillary Clinton, depending on the estimates, 12 to 16%.
And that delivered the state for him by about 10,000 votes.
And of course, he built on that going into 24.
But a little bit of history for people.
Republicans haven't carried a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since the 1994 Republican Revolution.
It's hard to find a modern cycle where you could say this is a more pro Republican environment.
It ended decades of Democratic dominance on Capitol Hill.
So it's a big deal.
They lost it the very next election.
They lost that very seat.
In 2000 to a lady we all might know now.
Her name was Debbie Stabenow.
Before that, you have to go back to 1972, folks.
So there really is little to suggest that Michigan, including the demographics and how they voted, but there's little to suggest that Michigan is the battleground state that Republicans think it is, except for Donald Trump winning it twice.
That's it.
And before that, it was Herbert Walker Bush because Ronald Reagan told the country to do so.
I mean, that's what.
He was going to lose to the caucus.
Yeah, the Willie Horton ads work.
But Ronald Reagan doing that at the convention was a big deal.
And they weren't in love with him, but they were in love with Ronnie.
So they listened to him.
They gave him one shot and then they voted for Bill Clinton.
OK, I mean, so this is idea that he meaning Mike Rogers is somehow going to perform stronger than he did against Alyssa Slotkin when Trump was on the ballot is given the state's history is just.
You know, it's just extremely far fetched to me.
And I think you see that Fox poll that came out.
I mean, I'm I'm I've said it before, so I'll just repeat it again.
I think that's that's cover for the NRC spending tons of money in a state that is going to be incredibly difficult.
Socialism doesn't scare people in the state of Michigan the way that Republicans think it does.
When you can't pay your own bills, folks, it's hard to argue against an idea.
They're much more afraid that they can't pay their rent or their car payment or get back to school clothes for their kids and fill up the refrigerator.
Then they are about Republicans throwing around the word socialism.
It just doesn't have the impact they think it does or ever did.
So if you move to the red states where I think the Senate really will hang in the balance, you already reference the Ohio race.
Let me throw on Iowa, Alaska, Texas.
I think Kansas is a little bit of a sleeper.
It's a bit of a stretch, but kind of just so you look at the demographics, I think you do.
So why don't you just kind of go?
Through those states and kind of assess where you think Republicans might be vulnerable or where you think maybe maybe they aren't.
Yeah, but just Kansas, Nebraska and Montana have been three states where Republicans have repeatedly understated Democrats chances, especially in a bad, of course, in a bad year.
It's just these are especially the old plain states have long, long time populist and progressive roots that aren't as red as people seem to think they are because of.
Presidential level voting.
And by the way, we also saw this Orman Orman loss.
So it's kind of hard to remember.
But somebody like Pat Roberts, they had to dump money in that race at the last minute.
Yeah.
What was that guy's name in Kansas?
Oh, now we're going back.
That was what?
Twenty fourteen.
You keep talking.
I'm going to find it.
Keep going.
They slept on it.
And it became clear toward the end that, oh, man, Roberts really is in trouble.
And he did end up winning it.
But you're not screaming double digits.
And it was an.
You got it right.
Orman money.
Orman.
Yeah.
It was Orman.
OK.
You lost by eight.
Yeah.
But, you know, they they they ignored that race.
But that was a good year for Republicans.
That's right.
Like that was he lost by eight.
That was 14.
It was the Obama midterm.
So, you know, again, so you project out like that.
Crazy to think it could be exactly right.
And, you know, the other states is Republicans are sleeping on.
They just thought Ohio and Iowa and even Texas would be within.
Their grasp forever because of how Donald Trump performed in them.
And this is it's hubris.
I don't know what else to call it.
And they they actually drew a lot of the the congressional districts with the same arrogance that using Trump's performance as a benchmark.
Well, you don't perform like Donald Trump performs in Texas, folks.
I hate to tell you, you don't.
Hispanics don't like you the way that they like Trump in twenty, twenty four.
Now, this way about the Florida map.
Can I offer a conspiracy theory to you?
I want to throw out there.
I got a friend who's probably going to agree.
I think DeSantis drew that map like almost as of DeSantis Mander, like almost to punish Trump for this cycle.
And then in a presidential year, some of the gains will come in.
But I looked at that Florida map and I think that there are a bunch of supposedly gerrymandered districts where you like moved it to our plus ten or nine that are really vulnerable because they're based on the assumption that these nonwhite gains and in order to get that highest share of the working class.
You have to bleed into nonwhites.
And Rui Teixeira, you know, he's got the liberal patriot.
He was one of the few voices in twenty four where I was reading, looking at our own polling, saying, OK, this this guy gets it.
You actually can't do that well unless you accept the fact that Trump is starting to break into nonwhite working class voting cohorts.
But it was Trump's.
It wasn't universally applied to Republicans, which is why so many of them did underperform him in these areas.
Some of them wrote his coattails, but it wasn't blanket and across the board.
Trump's if you look at the Electoral College, you would have thought that Republicans would have ended up with much bigger majorities that Mike Rogers himself should have taken the state of Michigan.
And we could go down this, but, you know, in Wisconsin, which was still actually kind of close.
But when we start to get into the Sun Belt and when we stay because the Rust Belt's a different animal, when we start to get into the more nonwhite Sun Belt, it really becomes a problem for Republicans.
And we're seeing that in Georgia now.
It's just not even.
It's not even competitive.
John Ossoff is going to is at this point stomping Collins and he's doing so because all of Trump's Trump's nonwhite gains are gone.
And in a state like Texas, which what about the government started?
What about the Gov's race in Georgia?
What do you think about that?
I think that's always going to be more competitive.
I haven't pulled it myself.
I've seen it both ways where it's up, you know, a point here, a few points here, a few points there until I pull that myself.
I honestly it's tough because they do like Republican governors.
It's it is, you know, it's a heavy.
You're a lift, but at the senatorial level, it's it's done.
It's been proven at the presidential level.
It has as well and take all of that to Texas.
And I just did a thread about this on on X because I'm watching people just think that Texas.
Well, after all, it is Texas.
It's still red.
It it hasn't been that red until Donald Trump won it by that much.
In twenty four, Ted Cruz was not the only one to almost lose in twenty eighteen, which I would credit Donald Trump for saving.
I would I would he ran around.
The map campaigning for all of these guys can Paxton himself almost lost as lieutenant general.
It was a few points.
Dan Patrick.
It was a few points almost lost himself in that cycle.
So what we don't know is have Democrats cap their gains on on college whites?
If not, Republicans are in deep trouble because we already know that the Hispanic gains that Trump made have all but been squandered at this point.
And it doesn't, you know, people seem to think it gives me joy to say this.
I don't want to say that it doesn't at all, but that's the reality you can see in the primary vote.
I want to fight about something, Rich.
What what what can Trump do?
What do you think Trump can do the next two months?
Is there anything in the war?
Number one and the war we're going to fight about.
I mean, that's he's got to end the war.
I mean, this is not this is basically non-negotiable.
This was a war that 70 percent of the American public told us.
And they know they saw it.
Tony Fabrizio's polling was very similar.
Seventy percent said that they did not want him to do this.
About 20 percent said they did.
Have you ever seen a U.S. president start a conflict like this without even attempting to rally support for the war beforehand?
George Bush spent three months.
And then not really care about it after.
Really half-hearted.
Push forward even after.
I've never seen anything like this, but it feels like to me that there was a lack of appreciation for why presidents did that before.
Cost of living has by far since the 24 election has been.
The most important issue.
Nothing even comes close.
And the Iran war did nothing but further exacerbate that problem and cause them even even more trust to be lost on their ability to handle that issue.
So that's number one.
And then two, I'm really I really think now.
I mean, it's September.
Actions speak louder than words.
I'm not sure there's anything Republicans can say at this point to change the national environment.
It's not the same as it was.
when I was growing up where we would always hear, well, it's
It's going to be Labor Day. And then the clock really starts. Now, we're in the age of information now.
We've been studying this for years. And the truth is, people, they tell themselves stories now.
And the election narratives build within their mind very early. It's one of the reasons why the Harris switcheroo didn't work.
You know, the public had already told themselves a story and a new candidate really wasn't going to be able to shake that.
The same thing with covid, by the way. You know, I mean, they told themselves Trump wasn't especially when the new candidate didn't give give or give a new story.
Really, which is another problem. Didn't really. I mean, that might have not been the best selection, you know, because you needed something new.
You know, that rich. Well, we got to find something to fight about next time.
OK, I'm going to before I let you go next time, we'll fight. I promise.
I want to give you a chance to just pimp the book. What do you appreciate?
What?
Polls say young Americans really want. What's the pitch?
Yeah, this is basically the thesis is simple.
I really do think it's either going to be MAGA or Mamdani, meaning I don't think either establishments of the party will be able to survive in their current form.
If these needs, which are real and the grievances are real, go unanswered.
The DSA, which seems to be baffling, everybody is foretold in the book.
The rise of the DSA is foretold because of MAGA.
If the DSA did not meet the needs that people entrusted Trump to meet, then they were going to look for something else.
Young Americans are nothing like what conservative Republican voters think they are.
They're telling themselves a fantasy.
They might call themselves moderate, Tim, but they have very radical views and they just want things done.
And they'll pick some some candidates might not seem acceptable to 65 plus are perfectly acceptable to them and it will radically change.
This country, if both parties don't move to answer it.
Well, Rich, you're going to take some shit for this.
So I'm going to give you this little clip you could send to people.
You're a prick.
OK, you're a fucking fascist prick.
All right, Rich.
Just so you know that, Tim, I'm never coming on this show again.
There we go.
Clip that for 20 seconds.
Thanks.
I appreciate it.
That's Rich Barris.
I appreciate your analysis.
Let's stay in touch.
All right.
All the best, Tim.
Thanks for having me.
See you, brother.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Rich Barris analyzes how Donald Trump’s second administration has diverged from his 2016 "Trump 1.0" campaign by shifting focus to foreign policy, especially after Operation Midnight Hammer, which damaged trust within his base.
Key issues like immigration policy, the detention of Milo and the Tate brothers, and the Epstein scandal have eroded trust among MAGA voters, who now perceive a lack of authenticity and consistency in Trump’s actions.
Republican polling and electoral projections show vulnerabilities in traditionally red states like Michigan, Kansas, and Florida, where demographic shifts and gerrymandering have weakened GOP coalitions and created deeper vulnerabilities for Democrats.
Summary:
Rich Barris, a political analyst and author, examines the decline of Donald Trump’s political appeal in the 2024 election cycle, arguing that his shift from domestic-focused policies in the first term to a foreign policy-heavy second administration has alienated core MAGA voters. He highlights key policy failures—such as the handling of immigration, the Epstein controversy, and the war in Ukraine—as symbolic betrayals that undermined trust. These issues, combined with a lack of authentic engagement, have led to a fracture within the Republican base.
Barris also critiques the GOP’s overreliance on past successes, pointing to polling misses in red states like Michigan and Kansas, where demographic changes and gerrymandering have created new vulnerabilities. He notes that younger voters, who were energized by Trump’s early campaign, now view the GOP as disconnected from their concerns. Meanwhile, the political landscape is shifting toward non-white working-class voters, with Trump’s earlier gains in these groups now being lost.
Barris concludes that both major parties are failing to meet the real needs of modern voters, especially young Americans, leading to the potential rise of alternative movements like the DSA. The discussion is framed against a backdrop of casino promotional content, including Crown Coins and Chumba Casino, which promote real-money wins but are not central to the political analysis.
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The analysis suggests that Trump's foreign policy focus and actions, like the 'Operation Midnight Hammer' and immigration policies, have alienated parts of his original MAGA base.
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