Low LTV Doesn’t Have to Limit Your Ecommerce Growth
from Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth
43m 11s
The speaker uses the story of a dear friend, Jesus Montero—a once-in-a-generation baseball talent who died young—to challenge the assumption that success in business requires elite genetics or exceptional metrics. He argues that many brands, despite poor LTV, low margins, and high ad costs, can thrive by rejecting the myth of needing "genetic outliers." Instead, he shares three real-world examples: Skullcandy, which grew by embracing TikTok shops as a core demand engine; the San Sony brothers, who scaled efficiently by shifting from high-cost ad volume to cultural moment-driven campaigns; and Spiral Bible, which leveraged a cultural event to build sustained growth through a marketing calendar strategy. All three brands achieved significant growth—Skullcandy with 4.3x e-commerce growth, San Sony with 100% spend increase and improved efficiency, and Spiral Bible with 4.4x spend growth—without relying on high LTV or massive capital. The key insight is that success lies not in being exceptional, but in strategic discipline: building marketing around time-bound cultural events, scaling volume efficiently through creative supply chains, and focusing on high-impact, low-cost campaigns. The speaker concludes that hope, not perfection, is the foundation of entrepreneurial success, and that any brand with a clear strategy can win, regardless of its starting metrics.
Check, check, check. Cory, are we good? Thank you. Nick put me first on the entire schedule
depends on me today. So we're going to jump right into this in August about a month
ago. This story, what is going on? We're going too fast. There we go. A news story came
out about a former MLB player named Jesus Montero that died two weeks following a motorcycle
accident in Venezuela. And for most of you, this was probably nothing more than an ESPN
notification that showed up on your phone and disappeared because Jesus was not a superstar
was not LeBron James by any means. But for me, he was actually my friend. I knew Jesus
from the time that he was 18 years old. The tragic accident came with his wife one week
away from giving birth to their first daughter. And I knew this guy from the time that he
was a child. And he was the most joyful, happy human I've ever met in my life. An 18 year
old who came to the US from Venezuela and signed with the Yankees at 16 years old. We got
to play together for the same season in Charleston, South Carolina. And I can tell you, the only
people that loved Jesus more than I did were the women of Charleston, South Carolina. They
were big fans of Jesus. He was an absolute golden child. I don't know how familiar you
are with baseball, but baseball works prospects get rated on this 20 to 80 scale. 20 is like
a very below average player and 80 would be like a once in a generation talent. And every
prospect gets graded on these across five different characteristics, your arm, your power,
power. You can hit for average defense. And Jesus was by all accounts. A generational talent.
He was the golden child of the Yankees organization. He was 64 240 had an 80 grade bat. And every
attribute you would design into a ball player he had. He was incredible to watch. You would
watch this kid take batting practice and you were just certain that he was destined to play
for the New York Yankees for a very long time.
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to translate this for you because most of you don't know baseball. Hey, Zeus was the
grooms of baseball prospects. If you take 80 grade power in translated to massive LTV,
that's what he had. If you take his 80 grade hit tool that's equivalent to huge gross margin.
And the $1.6 million he signed for an age 16 back in 2005, which is like $100 million
in inflation adjusted dollars today translates to being able to afford any cap that you could
possibly need. That was who he was. But the problem for me playing with his Zeus was that
all he did was make me acutely aware of how not Hey Zeus I was. I was 24 years old playing
on the same team as an 18 year old. I was five nine. He was six four when he went to hit
the ball it went a lot further than when I did. And so studying Hey Zeus only did one thing
for me. It made me realize that I didn't have what to take. And my fear is as we start
this conference is that our industry right now is doing the same thing to some of you.
We're propagated by a lot of stories I even heard Nick say it on the stage. We can't help
but elicit the names of grooms and I am eight and all these brands right now because supplements
are so invoked. It's as if it's the only way you could ever possibly win the game is
to be running with a huge LTV and being able to pay whatever the khak is that meta wants
from you and scaling to the moon and every case study your fed is a genetic outlier that
only does one thing for you. And that's that if the players you study are golden children
the lesson is you don't have it. That you might as well pack it up take your stuff with
you right now and head home or come run an agency right. I even you know Sean Frank's
tweet yesterday was felt like he was throwing in the towel and rigid like if you can't
win there whatever could we do. So I thought about this and I thought you know my job as
I open this conference is to give you all the most powerful thing an entrepreneur has as
they go through their journey. It's hope. It's the sense of possibility that we just might
be able to do it. We just might be able to win. So if you leave with that then I've done
my job and the way I'm going to do it is actually to lower the bar. I'm going to convince
you that you can win with mediocre genetics Taylor genetics five nine white kid that are
a little too old genetics. That's what we're going to try and win with today. It's not going
to be a pep talk going to be a data set. I'm going to give you three brands and here's the rules.
They're all growing 50% a year at north of eight figures. But they have to have bad genetics.
They have terrible LTV. They have mediocre gross margins and they have to be first order
profitable with their meta ad spend or their dead. No cacket 0.2 and an LTV that pays back four
years. No billion dollar debt vehicles from general catalyst. I'm talking about old school.
You pay it. You get it back right from the start and they're growing and winning. How?
Well, if these three can do it any of you can. That's my promise. I know you're probably thinking
we need a second Taylor. I've heard of some of these. You feel like maybe you're getting a
little bit ahead start, but trust me as I go through these stories, but the goal is if these three
can do it any of you can. So what you can take away from their journey is something that you can put
in your pocket right down on your piece of paper and use to help your brand today.
So I'm going to start with Skullcandy. Now, this is the one that you're going to hold on Taylor.
Let me second. That's a global brand. You can't start with them as the thing I'm supposed to
reference to is a startup founder. But let me tell you something about Skullcandy. Skullcandy
was founded in 2003. So they've been around a long time, but they've gone through a tumultuous
journey. And the most recent iteration of Skullcandy was one that was taken over by an entirely
new leadership team coming off of massive decline where they had gone very much out of vogue.
And when they came to CTC three years ago, their online revenue was smaller than yours. I promise.
They had built a business or a distribution system that no longer applied.
And if we were to grade them on a 20 to 80 scale, they have some of the worst LTV you could ever
imagine. People don't need a hundred pairs of headphones. They're gross margin and consumer
electronics with warranties and everything that exists is very poor. AOV is normal. And the brand
heat had died. If you were to write a report, you'd say they're an organizational player, non-prospect.
Don't invest the high pick in these guys. But what they didn't know is that they have Brian
Garifalo. And Brian Garifalo here on our shops card took over a CEO of Skullcandy. And Brian understands
maybe more than any leader I've ever interacted with about what is happening today and how product
gets moved. And he's unconcerned with the genetic attributes of the business. He believes that his
ability to influence demand and to influence culture can win regardless.
And just to prove the point, this is an illustration of all the stores that are currently in
our stateless database. And you can see this is Skullcandy's LTV. It's bad. You are not going to win
the game off of lifetime customer value. It's not how you're going to win the game. You're going
to have to do it with new customer acquisition efficiency over and over. And that's what they did.
They stopped playing any genetics game and they deployed what I call the modern distribution
playbook. For me, really, they wrote it. They wrote the modern distribution playbook in a way that
opened my eyes to what was possible for a consumer brand pursuing distribution in many places to
build a motor. Now Nick talked about that thing where you take out your phones, you take a screenshot.
If you're going to do it, this next slide, I think is the most impactful because to me, it illustrates
today what is the modern distribution playbook in two core areas, your media and your sales channel
distribution. And this Luke raise your hand. Luke's the president's CTC. This is his creation. I don't
take credit for it. But what I believe that it illustrates so perfectly. Okay. It's the relationship
between demand creation and demand capture that happens in both media channels and sales channels.
And what I really want you to focus on is I want you to look at this section here where we talk about
each of these sales channels. So these are sales channels. These are media channels. And I want to
think about the relationship between how much happens in demand creation and how much happens in
demand capture. Okay, we have to understand some things about consumer purchasing generally.
E-commerce is still a very small percentage of overall transactions that occur around 17
ish percent based on the latest data. That means the vast majority of demand capture for almost every
category on earth will happen in retail for almost every category. Then from then about 40% of all
the transactions online happen on Amazon. Then you have Shopify, which is growing its GMV very
quickly. And then the fastest growing of all the channels is TikTok shops. But the amount of
demand capture that occurs in these places is disproportionately small relative to the other locations.
Now, what I watch brands do when they try to disassociate these channels, they build silos
is they maybe start D to C. And then all of a sudden target comes knocking. And they're like,
"Oh, wow. I have a friend right now that's running a supplement company." And he just got an offer
for store-wide in target. And I said, "Don't you dare do that. Don't you dare? You do not have the
demand creation to support that demand capture. You will die." And your job is ultimately to sell
to not the buyer at target, but the end consumer. You have to move units. And if you don't have the
engine you can't support that do.
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And so the relationship between these things
is the critical thing that Skoll Candy understood.
And what they were on a freight of
is what most large legacy brands are afraid of,
which is to understand that right now today,
the core motor for demand creation across all of these channels
is TikTok shops.
And I don't mean it in the way that you're hearing it framed
often right now, which is this idea that TikTok shops
is exclusively about generating ad creative for meta.
No, that's not the point.
They each plan role in driving value across all of them.
Now the problem with this as a demand creation engine
is that if you work exclusively there,
if you try and isolate the TikTok shops only,
it is very difficult to capture as much of the demand
as you create.
Why?
Because a lot of the demand is impression based, okay?
And when you think about the relationship
between an impression and the direct path to purchase,
why does meta work so effectively
on such a short attribution window like a seven day click?
It's because every ad is optimized and driven
towards a click based conversion, okay?
And so what happens when you have that type of a funnel
is that the halo effects are actually diminimous,
meaning that you can still drive halo effects
with meta advertising, but the purchase realization
of those ads is so high that you actually
diminute the value, whereas when you move
into these items connected TV, even TikTok ads
or impression based organic content,
the satiation of that demand happens much more broadly.
So as you grow your TikTok impression base,
the value capture has happened at Amazon retail.
And right now TikTok shops grew 12 to 20 X faster
than the total USC commerce in 2025.
And it's still growing about nine times faster in 2026,
even as overall e-commerce has rebounded.
So the fastest growing channel within all of e-commerce,
which continues to grow, but it's growing at a faster pace.
The shelf is very much now the feed.
And for Skullcandy, this is true.
And I'm going to tease a little bit of data
that I shared with my friend,
who I'm going to explain in a little bit in a second,
about the growth and success that Skullcandy's have.
But you can see that if we normalize their TikTok shops
for January, the growth that they've had to August
about 4.3 X, their e-commerce business has followed
on top growing 2.7 times from January to August of this year.
And the year over year growth has followed
directly related to that spillover.
And this all comes from a massive amount
of impression volume.
I'm going to let set you up to tell more about that story
and later, but what Brian and Evan and the team at Skullcandy
did so well as they understood that these tropes
that we've been given, TikTok is for cheap widgets
and not established brands.
You have to have a low AOV, TikTok is for consumables.
The channel can't be profitable.
Are all tropes that don't have to be true.
Those may be the natural genetic realities
of the baseline expectation,
but it doesn't have to be true for you.
Now, I'm not going to go too much more into this
because I'm not going to steal the spotlight
from one of the smartest people in the world
and not Evan Catlett.
Evan is going to be speaking later this afternoon.
She's the global VP of e-commerce and marketing at Skullcandy
and she's going to give you a detailed playbook
on exactly how they pulled this off
and how it's affecting their retail business
and the overall business in entirety.
So if you have your schedule out, highlight that
because I think that the job that Evan and the Skullcandy team
have done is without a doubt the single best marketing effort
I've seen from any brand in the space in the last 24 months
in part because of the genetic attributes
that they're dealing with as a business.
So you do not want to miss her telling that story.
And for me, when I watch this play out,
I realize like there is no way the future
of what we're building as an agency, as a provider,
can happen without this capability.
That the need to drive this engine
is going to be so central to the process
of everything that we're doing going forward
that to not be able to deliver that scope
to our customers would be a failure.
So this is an announcement that as of today,
CTC has acquired T-bar partners,
a TikTok shop agency, Alex Tyler,
where are you guys here?
Here you are, hey, come here, walk in so they can see you.
Bring your short shorts, wave.
That's Alex right there, where's Tyler?
Somewhere, oh, just selling, he's selling.
He's doing a great job.
These guys are the group that is behind building
the TikTok shops playbook for most of the industry.
Groans, Ridge, Hikes, Cloud, David, Vita Coco, create.
And if we go back, they're everything you could imagine.
20-year-olds with the broccoli hair,
they made this image for me.
That's me as a 21-year-old with a textured fringe.
They're everything you could want in TikTok shops,
dropped out of their college baseball team
to run it out of their college dorm.
They work 9,000 hours a day,
and all they want to do is help you
grow your TikTok shops business.
Okay, second, the stock brand.
So one TikTok shops playbook,
you're gonna get more of that from Evan later today.
The second one is the stock brand.
And this is an experience that I know
somebody here is having right now.
It's the brand that is D to C only exclusively
has matured to the point of stalling out on growth.
Somewhere between 20 and 70 million
depending on the time of your product,
every brand experiences the situation
where their next incremental dollar
into whatever primary acquisition channel
they're running suddenly becomes unprofitable.
And they ram their head into that wall
and cannot figure out the threshold.
And for these guys, these are the San Sony brothers.
They're a family out of Missouri
that run this incredible brand.
Again, mediocre LTV, menswear.
We don't buy clothes quite as often as the women do.
Gross margins, okay, these are right category.
Heat is incredibly difficult.
Wildly saturated, complex category.
They're a nice or a guy, maybe a fourth, I'll filter.
The category eats prospects like this for breakfast though.
And this was true for them.
At the end of this quarter, they were stuck.
You can see that January year over your spend had stalled.
February installed.
March, we reached this dilemma,
which is what every brand reaches where you have a choice.
Do I keep my cat profitable
and watch the business slowly decline in acquisition?
Or do I try and increase my cat to maintain growth
and watch profits decrease?
This tension exists everywhere in every brand that comes to us.
And so March, we went for it.
We said, we're gonna try and produce scale.
And what happened was our efficiency declined.
Every scale attempt broke first order profitability.
It wasn't for a lock of trying though.
These guys and our team, they were throwing everything
they could at it.
1,199 new ads in a quarter, 400 in January, 240 in February,
524 as we scaled up in March.
We could not figure out how to produce it.
And then the real problem
and where we got in detention with the customer
is that as you're trying to do this
and you're increasing your creative output,
the problem is you're also increasing your production cost
because every ad is paid for up front
and it was getting expensive.
There was a growing frustration paying for a pile of ads
that weren't getting them where they wanted to go.
Specifically, every ad that we launched,
we looked at their 60 day value to the business.
And we define that value as the conversion value
times the incrementality factor,
times the 60 day LTV, times the gross margin minus ad spend.
So in other words, every time you launch an ad,
how many contribution dollars does it generate
for the business in 60 days?
Every ad, you put it in the ad account, what happens?
And for them, the median ad was worth about negative $2
and the average ad was $24.
So the typical ad lost money, 85% of them did
and a few winners carried the average.
Now, if you think to yourself right now,
what does it cost me to make an ad?
Just think about it for a second.
Are you clear?
Do you know how much does it cost you to make an ad?
I'd be willing to bet it's more than 24 bucks.
So before we get to the production cost
of producing the asset,
they were already losing money on the median ad
and the average ad was only producing 24 bucks.
That is a negative return on invested capital,
over and over and over.
So it wasn't just frustration.
It was logical management of capital
to turn around and go, guys, we can't keep doing this.
This isn't working.
And before we get into this,
I wanted to give some context that this is not
just a normal brand anomaly.
These metrics are the reality for most brands.
I'm gonna show you a study.
So we looked at and analyzed 1.339 million ads
that we launched over the last two years, okay?
And we said, we wanna understand
what is the median value of those ads,
the brands that created them over that time period?
It's a huge sample of ads.
Here's what we found.
The median ad launched by a brand
is worth negative $3.20.
That means you launch it,
the return on investment, incrementality adjusted,
minus the ad spend times the gross margin is negative.
Negative.
You build an ad, you spend all this time and money
and you're creating negative value for the business.
And this isn't just true at the median.
This is true for 133 of the 158 brands
we looked at in the sample.
So not just on a one measure of central tendency,
but for most.
Brands it is true and go do this math right into yourself go check this math is Taylor lying
You will find that the ads that you are producing to create create negative value
But here's where the hope exists the average though is worth about five hundred and seven dollars
So if the median is negative, but the average is five oh seven math people. What does it mean?
It means that the tail of
Disproportionate value creation of ads lifts the average value to a place that works
Um, and here's some number so of the 1.339 million ads that we've created
631,000 of them lost money
246,000 of them made money and
11,000 of the 1.3 million made big money
But here's the beauty of this is that meta is actually a system that optimizes for this reality
It kills your losers for free and this is where a game that is probably amongst the most controversial opinions that we possess that lots of people love to argue with us about it
But the reality is is that meta is incredibly good at isolating spend on a per ad level to understand where to allocate your budget
And the graph of this looks like this so if we take those ads and we were to map them and we say okay
What do all the ads look like that we launch this is a scatter plot looking back across those two years
And you can see the vast majority of ads accumulate around basically zero
But the median is negative
But here's why the system still works
It's because the outliers of distribution are capped on the downside
Because most of us will kill things or the system itself will kill things
But the upside is disproportionately. It's right skewed if you were to look at a distribution sample
To massive outlier value creation
The tail be the species the top 1% of ads produce 41% of all the value the next 4% produce 32% of the value
Everything else is 27% so that means the top 5% of ads produce 73% of all the value of every ad you will ever run
Across 1.3 million ads 160 brands
5% of the ads produce almost all of the value
And here's what I want you to internalize and again you can wrestle with this
I'd love to we tonight we can have a drink and we can sit at the bar
We can scream at each other about this principle if you want
But you cannot alter the odds of this lottery. I've never seen anyone do it
I've never seen anyone do it. I've never seen any brand that comes to us that can consistently and repeatedly alter this reality
The system is designed for it
Meta is incredibly good at allocation towards the highest likelihood production of returns
But what you can do and what brands are evolving to understand today is that you can change the price of the ticket
When you think about an expected value calculation there's two sides. There's the numerator and there's the denominator
If the numerator is the value that we're going to create and we know that it's $500 on average negative $3 on a median basis
Then the cost that we pay to create that asset is everything
If everything it's the whole game and this is intuitive to you all you care a lot about your supply chain
And the cost of goods that you produce
Your cost of creative production is the hidden number that it's destroying your ad economics
But this is what's happening right now and our business is so good. Last year I talked about evolution
The way that I watch brands naturally evolve in a capitalistic system towards the attributes that allow them to drive profit
And it's happening again with this
This became the hidden thing where everyone talked about creative volume and all of a sudden it became too expensive to produce creative volume
And so the industry more and more of can met a more of a size into a solution to the problem
And this is what it looks like it looks like tribe right how many of you are on tribe
Lucas where are you are you here? There he is where are you
I don't know if I can see him when you find Lucas and what correct what tribe is done and what people are doing with TikTok shops is they're inverting the cash conversion site
And that's what it does it just allows you to play the game to bet at the casino with no risk
And that mechanism completely inverts the dynamics of possibility
So as an example if we want to take the assumption of this data which is that one
$10,000 winner where those outliers happens every 80 launches
And we were looking at an old model it we just analysis about the average cost that we're paying for video ads or ads
It's around $300 an ad and you were to assume that okay in order to produce
One winner where $10,000 you would have to generate $26,400 of so cost
It doesn't work. It doesn't pencil. You can't pay that price and make money
The vast majority of you will never make money paying that much for creative production
I'm sorry. It's just the map. It doesn't work
But if you invert it the creative supply chain and you make the channel that produces the assets paying for the asset
Then all of a sudden you're only paying for the winners. You're not paying up front for the cost of the asset
And this is what has been unlocked in this mechanism that tribe and others like them refundal and others
Have created it the ability to defer the risk to someone else
What has happened is just the creator started absorbing your risk
And their risk and their cost on it is actually lower than yours
It's just their own time and they get really efficient at doing it really really fast
And this idea that you only pay for the winners is the way that the economics get inverted. It's like selling
Your product on being able to put it in the store and only paying
Having the store owner only pay if it sells consignment. That's the word I'm looking for
So the old cash conversion cycle is you pay cash up front for production
You pay the cash out for media and then maybe 90 days later you get some cash back
In a cash intensive business. That's a really bad model
All day long you listen to guys like Roman Khan and Maytab talk about negotiating with your suppliers
Just ruthlessly refusing to pay them up front for cash and negotiating it. It's the same thing
You're paying up front for production then you're paying up front to meta
And then maybe you will realize the revenue
This inverts the economics the inverted cycles is the creator submit the cash comes in the ad sells on meta
Then you pay the commission out
To the founder so you see the product you take the asset you pay for the revenue pretty straightforward creators join the program creators
Make the video you push the meta ads. Why listed commission on attribute itself. So you guys get it
It's pretty straightforward, but understanding why it's happening is the key because what's gonna happen right?
Is that all we've done is we've switched the exploitation of the economics to the creator and I was reading today even and you know what creators
Why's up to this they suddenly start going for a second?
I
I'm not getting anything and I only get it if it works and they're eventually
The market will move to what I call the terminal price of creative
It'll move to this point at which both sides are absorbing an appropriate amount of risk relative to their upside
And it'll concentrate down to this this happens in every service that we provide
Including creative and so this will happen it'll normalize but for the moment if you can get people to absorb all the risk to your own benefit
It is an absolute arbitrage that is a wonder of the world
And it's perfectly capitalistic every party is paid from the value it creates the engine
funds its own execution and here's what it did to the normal brand going back to them
So they did this we came to them. We said okay, we get it
You're tired of paying us up front for ads. There's this thing called tribe will manage and grow your program there and see what we can do
This was the result three months later
April 126 percent spend year over year at the same Ross may 140 percent increase in spend
June 100 percent increase in spend absolutely exploded
And here's why okay, this is really important
Is really really important the number of new ads that we were able to launch
Went from an average of like let's call it 380 to an average of almost 1200
So we were able to double our shots on goal
At no production cost to ourselves
And so what began to happen is that the ads that we launched from tribe began to consume the ad account
And you so you can see how many ads were from tribe in each of the subsequent months
And how much increase and impact that happened as we went and how much of the spend the account began to absorb over time
78 percent of the live ads 81 and a half percent of the spend in June
During that time we doubled the spend at the same high Ross is the same incremental return on ad spend
And that's the dream right that we're all after and you can see this is incremental return on ad spend
It's up 0.6. It's not 0.4. This is real efficiency at the scale suddenly and consequently as the result of a change in creative volume
So here we sit 62 percent year over year 100 percent in June
I Ross is holding as we go the ceiling wasn't demand. It was creative supply
And here's what I want to illustrate to you during that time the average ad got 5.4x more profitable
So for them specifically June through March every ad was generating $24 again paying almost 300 for it very negative
Then all of a sudden the average ad in these time periods increases dramatically
But again doesn't clear that $300 threshold
So if the cost was still the same the economics still wouldn't work
But it works because the cost went to zero death thing only reason the denominator matters
But here's the other thing
The median didn't change because I know there's the quality people out there and I love you
I love you quality people the ones that tell me yeah, but they it's not creative volume. It's quality
I love you. I appreciate your craftsmanship, but here's the reality the median outcome didn't change
The ads weren't better
Generally
But when you have more ads what you do is you unlock the upper tails of the distribution
By having more ads we simply covered a broader spectrum of the same
distribution, which means you get more winners. It's a hits business. Every 80 ads produces a $10,000 winner
launch more ads. And in doing so, we unlocked massive upside. You can see the distribution of the
tri-bads and how many of them reach that threshold in each period. If you just use the $10,000 threshold,
and I'll show you specifically, did the typical ad change? No, the median first 60 day spend in each
of these periods, January through March 9-20, April through June 10-53, April through June tri-bad 9-24,
almost exactly the same median result. The difference now? The 99 percentile increased from 3,300 to
6,800. The distribution moves slightly up the tail, ads clearing 10K. We didn't have 5, we had 16,
and tri-bade 12 of them. That's it. That's the whole game. How many hits can you find?
That's the game. And the answer, you can try and breathe them better. You can do that in all those
things. And I'm not saying to not try. By all means, if you are in the business of making better ads
all the time, please, whatever your definition of quality is, I can see to it, just hold that
constant and scale the volume up against your bar. Because if you make more ads work more often,
think it can always start even better in your favor, then you should increase volume even more,
because you make better ads. You'll hit the distribution tail more. Anyways, third example.
The zero employee brand, Spiral Bible. This is a business with literally zero employees.
They're a publisher. A Bible is not a subscription. You don't need to buy hundreds of them.
These are their genetic attributes. Terrible LTV. Very low gross margin, or very low AOV,
better gross margin. No employees. There's no roster spot for a team with no players.
But Alex here featured in our shop's edition of the baseball card.
One of the, another one of these just sneaky entrepreneurs that just get it. He just understands
the game that he is playing and how to do it. And he had a wild experience. About a year ago,
Charlie Kirk was assassinated. And one of the cool things about being in an agency is that you get to
see how commerce and culture come together in these really wild ways. We work with Sunday Red and
every time Tiger Woods gets into a car accident. For some reason, people love to shop. It's just a
big driver for shopping. And so was this. This was crazy that during that time, there was a massive
massive spike in Bible sales in any religious related items when Charlie Kirk was assassinated.
And it caused this business to go through the roof in particular on TikTok. And so suddenly,
this business that had been plotting along had this moment where the demand went through the root.
I mean, just an insane volume as a result of this. So again, just this fascinating way in which
these cultural elements drive demand changes in the market. But the problem is the surge didn't last
long. Now I didn't fully receive the new baseline was 70% higher for a brand that was ready to spend
into it, but it did fade. The religious enthusiasm time like it does with most things calmed it.
And the TikTok shops took off and then it took them for a ride and then you try and build your
business around it. And then it drops off. They were down about 93% from the peak trying to figure
out what to do. And if when a channel collapses, if you don't restructure, you have to evolve.
You have to figure out how to change. And so Alex was at this point where he couldn't remanufacture
that moment. He couldn't inject into all of culture a sudden increase in demand for the
pipeline. That's really hard as a marketing agency. I'll tell you we don't got that in our playbook
either. But what we did say is, okay, what was the idea though? What's the principle there?
It's the idea that there are in culture. These moments that if we cap into our product can find
a place that allows us to ride the tailwind of demand. And so this idea that the calendar holds the
key to creative volume and demand became obvious to spiral Bible. And so what we were able to do
is to take this principle. And I'm going to start with the end here. We got to 4.4x to spend
from May to August. So this is again, these are sudden acute changes in mature businesses
where we both massively increased the media spend and the performance. And I'm going to explain
how we did it. So that's been growth 339%. Platform Ross went from 163 at the bottom to 191,
scaling associated to break efficiency. We did that holy grail of combining both volume and
efficiency. And at CTC, we have this thing. It's called the Canon. And it is our attempt at building
sort of an internal soul and directory of our methodology that is infused into our LLMS
and informs all of our method. And in the Canon, our meta-specific Canon, we have this principle,
which is that your best Ross day is never never green at. It's a moment of urgent purchase demand.
So if you were to just think like what the most efficient day that you have all year, I think
pretty easily we would all identify it as Black Friday. And then from that principle, you could
back out to maybe it's your once a year annual sale or it's your new product launch. It's the
moment when you drive an imperative for purchase now. Okay. So when we talk to people about building
demand and growth into the ad account, we talk about starting with your marketing calendar.
If I could offer you anything about meta creative strategy, it would be to please build your creative
strategy around offer design and evergreen testing ideation, all of that as an organization collectively
at the marketing calendar level, not at the ad level. Please, please, please, unify the efforts
that your marketing organization makes towards the impact on the ad account. And we do this by every
account. This is our default meta account structure. We have four campaigns that start every ad account.
There's evergreen acquisition volume optimized on raw school seven day click. We have evergreen
retention. We have a marketing moments acquisition campaign value optimized raw school on a one day click.
A marketing moments retention campaign. That's it for campaigns. Every ad set ads are just numbered
one through one 50 if we have some campaigns can hold more than that. We'll do that dab is included.
And the idea of the distinction between these two things is simple marketing moments have a start
and end date. They have a beginning. They have an end. They have an end.
And that's the decision evergreen runs all the time marketing moments have a beginning and end.
And what I'll say is that I believe in our industry 98% of the energy of scaling your ad account
lives in this bucket. But almost the vast majority of unlock potential liars in that one. It's to ask
the question what is the story that we could tell that fits into the zeitgeist of culture that overlaps
with the organization where the whole brand could pull together on the same end of the rope to create
incremental demand. And this is what we did for spiral Bob. We learned from the lesson of Charlie
Kirk and we went and said, okay, what could we do? And this is what we watched happen. We combined
the tribe playbook the one we already talked about with this idea of marketing moments and we said,
okay, how much incremental spend could we get out of those opportunities? And you'll see that it
actually was more impactful even than try. In this case, the plan marketing moments by August have
absorbed over 34% of the spend in the ad account that has grown 4.4x. So by taking a step back and
going, what stories could we tell collectively as a business? We altered the dynamics of the ad account.
And then what it also allows you to do is now when I go to the creators, I can say, hey, back to school
this week. Here's the bundle. Here's what I want you to talk about. Email team. We're going to
launch this landing page team. We've got this organic social. We're going to do this. Hey,
influencer friend, talk about this and the whole organization pulls on the rope at the same time.
And because it's time bound, you created an imperative for purchase now. Not, oh, that's a
cool product. I'll save it and maybe come back. This is scarcity. It is novelty. It is the
opportunity to drive incremental demand. So the moment campaign, 34%, the moments Ross in comparison
of the Evergreen Ross was about 26% more efficient. So you're getting more spend at a better
efficiency than what the moment buys you. And so when we do this, we think about the entire year,
you may have seen me talk about the idea of four peaks content, the idea that your marketing
calendar should have four critical built in moments to it. But more than that, really,
what I want you to do is that if you right now don't have, what is today? It's the middle of September.
Ask yourself, do I have for the month of October, every single email, every single SMS,
every single website change, every single organic social post on a calendar somewhere. I'm willing
to bet that 95% of you do not, because I am your agency partner and I know you do not.
You don't have one month from now, an idea of what you're going to say as an organization,
but you are ramming endless amounts of hours into this idea of like, what new Evergreen ad could
we create? Meanwhile, all around you, the world is happening. There are things in culture that are
being talked about that your brand could relate and connect to and drive imperative for virtual. I'll
give you an example. This is September or spiral Bible. Okay. So we go, all right. Well, we're
going to build a media plan. We're going to design the marketing moments for every section of the
campaign. What are we going to say? Well, you know what's happening this week? I don't know if any
of you grew up in Christian culture, but see you at the poll. People go pray at school early
in the morning. It's a week of September, September 17th, October 23rd. So I said, Alex, get on the
phone. Call the founder. I'll see you at the poll. See if they'll take donations if we drive
demand for them. It's just some kid. Hey, oh, what are you
want to do? Yeah, man, that sounds cool. Here's here's our 501 C3. You're cool if we use your logo and
talk about it and donate a portion of the proceeds to you. Yeah, man, that'd be really cool. It's kind
of faded over the years, but we're doing what we can. Thanks. Cool. Go. 17 through the 23rd. Here's
the promotion. We're going to give 10% back to this thing. We're going to talk about it, blah, blah.
Now we have a campaign. It's a structure. It's an email. It's a website change. We're going to plant
29 emails throughout the month. This is a brand with no LTV. The heck are we sending so many emails
for? Because email is not a retention channel because you know how many people sign up on the email
pop up and are waiting for a reason to buy. They're waiting for an imperative to purchase something that
is their reason for participating. We have multiple Labor Day sales. We have a flash show. We have the
Brave Faith Week. We created this whole story about how much courage it takes to show up and how we
want to encourage these people that are showing up to pray, whatever it is. And so these are all the
SMS email. Every one of them planned. Every email has an expectation of revenue. Every campaign has
an expectation of efficiency and dollars. And the end result is that it works. And it doesn't
just work on the out of count. When we started moving into the strategy, we went from sending 20,
our 18 email campaigns in June to 27 in August. We generated 2.8 acts time. The campaign revenue
three acts the campaign conversions and 28% of the revenue in September for a brand with no LTV,
no LTV on a very narrow seven day click attributed clavio number is going to be 28% of their overall
revenue nearly half as many sends as previously nearly three times more revenue every send tied to
a moment in the calendar. And we're just going to build these over and over in July. Is this a
Bible in a year is the main product? How the hell do you sell Bible in a year in July? Like it's
very much a January year commitment product. So we just made some shit up. It's the half time sale.
You don't need 52 weeks. You need 90 days. Here's a plan to accelerate getting back on path.
blah, blah, blah. Just make it up. It's July though. The story's different. The narrative of your
product matters relative to the calendar. It matters with happening in culture. It matters in a way
that your brands need to connect into a story that has a window with an imperative.
These are three normal brands or all the pun that are struggling in many ways just like you all.
They don't have the genetic attributes of groves. They don't have the LTV of I am eight.
They don't have the funding. They have to drive profitable cash. They don't have the capacity to do it.
But they're all winning because great brands aren't just born. They're built. They're built through
finding ways to evolve and win the game. None of these are generic. Every single one of them is
learned and your brand is not disqualified. You are here today to commerce round table that I hope
you pick up something you put it in your pocket and you have somewhere to go that allows you to go
back with some hope, some encouragement, some possibility of why it might be and to go and make it
happen. Thank you. And thanks for letting me share about my friend, Jesus. He was an awesome guy.
I don't think he ever thought he was going to be on a knee-converse event, but appreciate you all.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The speaker shares a personal story of a close friend, Jesus Montero, a gifted baseball prospect who died in a motorcycle accident, using his journey to illustrate how over-reliance on "genetic outliers" can blind entrepreneurs to the potential of ordinary brands.
Contrary to the myth of needing elite genetics or massive LTV, the speaker argues that brands with mediocre performance—low margins, poor LTV, and high costs—can still grow rapidly by focusing on efficient, scalable distribution and demand creation.
Skullcandy, a legacy brand in decline, transformed by shifting from traditional media to TikTok shops, leveraging impression-based demand to drive real growth in retail and e-commerce, proving that digital channels like TikTok shops are now central to demand capture.
A data analysis of 1.3 million ads reveals that the median ad generates negative value, yet the top 5% of ads produce 73% of total value, demonstrating that success in advertising comes not from volume or quality alone, but from volume-driven distribution and capturing tail events.
The "inverted creative supply chain" (e.g., via Tribe) shifts risk and cost to creators, enabling brands to scale ad volume at minimal cost, doubling spend and improving ad efficiency without increasing production expenses.
The San Sony brothers, a menswear brand, overcame stagnant growth by abandoning high-cost, low-return ad scaling and instead leveraging cultural moments (like holidays and events) to generate spikes in demand and revenue through targeted, time-bound campaigns.
Spiral Bible, a zero-employee publisher, capitalized on a cultural surge after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, then built a sustainable strategy around marketing moments tied to religious and cultural calendars to drive consistent, scalable revenue.
The core takeaway is that brands don’t need “golden child” genetics to win—they need strategic discipline, calendar-driven marketing moments, and a data-informed focus on volume, efficiency, and cultural timing to achieve growth.
Summary:
The speaker uses the story of a dear friend, Jesus Montero—a once-in-a-generation baseball talent who died young—to challenge the assumption that success in business requires elite genetics or exceptional metrics. " Instead, he shares three real-world examples: Skullcandy, which grew by embracing TikTok shops as a core demand engine; the San Sony brothers, who scaled efficiently by shifting from high-cost ad volume to cultural moment-driven campaigns; and Spiral Bible, which leveraged a cultural event to build sustained growth through a marketing calendar strategy. 4x spend growth—without relying on high LTV or massive capital.
The key insight is that success lies not in being exceptional, but in strategic discipline: building marketing around time-bound cultural events, scaling volume efficiently through creative supply chains, and focusing on high-impact, low-cost campaigns. The speaker concludes that hope, not perfection, is the foundation of entrepreneurial success, and that any brand with a clear strategy can win, regardless of its starting metrics.
FAQs
The main lesson is that focusing on 'golden child' prospects can create a false sense of superiority, leading to the belief that only elite players can succeed. The story emphasizes that mediocrity and consistent effort can lead to success, challenging the notion that only exceptional talent wins.
In the transcription, 'genetic attributes' refer to inherent traits like lifetime customer value (LTV), gross margins, ad spend efficiency, and customer acquisition costs. These are seen as fixed, unchangeable factors that determine a brand's potential, but the speaker argues they don't define success.
The modern distribution playbook emphasizes balancing demand creation and demand capture across channels. Brands must focus on distribution through retail and platforms like TikTok Shops, not just digital ads, to build sustainable growth without relying on high LTV or elite customer bases.
TikTok Shops is critical because it drives broad, impression-based demand that spills over into retail channels like Amazon. Unlike Meta's short attribution window, it creates wider, more sustainable demand, especially for brands with low LTV or poor margins.
The data shows that the median ad generates negative value, with most losing money. However, the top 5% of ads produce 73% of all value, indicating that success comes from scaling volume and capturing outliers, not from improving the quality of every single ad.
Skullcandy grew by shifting focus from traditional advertising to TikTok Shops, using it as a demand creation engine. The brand leveraged massive impression volume to drive demand that captured in retail, achieving 4.3x growth in e-commerce from January to August.
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